3000 NFL mock draft: Episode #27

This week we’re joined by Danny Kelly, we look at who boosted their stock at the combine and options for the Seahawks in the draft/free agency.


  1. Ed

    Whether they can trade down or not, I would probably prefer to go interior OL in 1st. Taking the best C or G seems like a better move, then fill the RT spot in 3rd or 4th.

    1st Martin/Kelly/Garnett
    2nd Miller/Shepard
    3rd Tretola/Glasgow
    3rd Prosise
    4th DT

    Maybe Murphy or Shell in 5th for the RT spot.


    Young, nasty and sound. Tha’s a line that could grow

    • Rob Staton

      I’d be pretty scared for Russell Wilson if Murphy or Shell started at RT. Murphy was woeful at tackle at the Senior Bowl — basically a cardboard cut out. Shell has to move inside IMO.

      • Ed

        What about Bailey? The real key for me would be improving the interior. That’s the big problem. Hawks had real problems up the middle with the likes of Rams and Panthers. Wilson can make the outside rush less effective, but not the inside.

        • Rob Staton

          Do you really want Alvin Bailey starting at tackle?

          Let’s not confuse half a game against a Carolina team that called off the dogs with a guy who can competently start in the NFL. He was given every chance to earn a start at left guard before the season and blew it.

  2. Steve Nelsen

    Am I the only one that hears Rob’s accent in my head now when I read his comments on this blog?

    • Trevor

      I know I do the same thing!

      • bobbyk

        I’d sometimes say Ty “Sambrailo” out loud in that accent around draft time last year! lol

        • reggieregg

          You are not alone…….lol

  3. Trevor

    Looking forward to this podcast!

    Rob which free agent OL will command the largest contract in your opinion? Will all 3 be over $9mil APY?

    Mack, Okung, Osemele?

    • Rob Staton

      Mack around $10m. Okung between $9-11 unless the injuries mean he has to take a one-year prove-it deal. Osemele $10-12m.

      • Trevor

        The increasing salaries with the larger cap #s really place much more importance on the draft doesn’t it? Do you think as salaries raise the trade value of draft picks will rise in accordance?

        I guess that is why JS values those comp picks so much.

        • Rob Staton

          Very possible — fair points.

      • GeoffU

        It seems there’s a girth of free agents expecting 10m a year: these three plus Irvin, two Johnson’s, Vernon, Jackson, Pierre-Paul, Doug Martin?, Williams…

        I wonder if there’s going to be enough teams to pay them all what they want? If we sit it out we might be able to get some deals similar to the Bennett/Avril thing.

        • Rob Staton

          Vernon is already guaranteed his contract in Miami. JPP won’t get close to $10m APY for me, Doug Martin’s in for a shock I think. The ones who will likely get paid are Osemele, Irvin, Osweiler, Malik Jackson, Janoris Jenkins and Alex Mack — plus Okung if teams see beyond the injury.

          • cha

            DeMarco Murray’s disastrous season and “nobodies” with good seasons like Freeman and Rawls really set back the RB market, as if it wasn’t already not great.

            With Lynch retiring, I think only McCoy, Peterson, Murray and Stewart are making big $ in the RB spot and only AP is a top performer and he’s a freak of nature.

  4. Trevor

    I still think if Mathis is motivated to play then the two guys we showed interest in last year might be our best and most cost effective option to fix the interior of the OL.

    If we go against the trend and sign some mid-level free agents this year. Here is an option if we have $18 mil to spend.

    Evan Mathis – 2yr $8 mil ($4 mil cap hit)
    Stephen Wisnewski 4 yrs- $ 20 mil ($4mil cap hit yr #1)
    Rubin – 3 years $15 mill ($5mil cap hit)
    Lane 2 years $10 mil ($5mil Cap hit) He gets 2 years as a starter to build value and re-enter FA at 27.

    Bennet and Baldwin (This is critical this off season)

    Rd#1 Coleman or Ifedi (RT)
    Rd#2 Chris Jones or best DT on board
    Rd#3Travis Freeney LB
    Rd #3 Comp Prosise RB

    2016 OL – LT Gilliam, LG Mathis, C Wisnewski, RG Glowinski, RT Coleman / Ifedi
    2016 DL -Rubin, Bennet, Avril, Clark, Jones (Rookie 2nd Rd), Hill, Marsh, Rookie 4th Rd

    • cha

      I wonder how long it would take your proposed OL to gel. All 5 positions are new.

      If Sweezy is signable for the same APY as Mathis I think they’d choose Sweezy due to youth & system experience.

      Pinning hopes for #3 WR on Richardson / Williams / Smith with Kearse leaving? Or secondary FA signing?

      • Trevor

        I think with a veterna center and LG who have both played a ZBS system gelling would be quick. Glowinski played RG last year and Gilliam would be switching but still played in the system. I think they would easily gel in training camp.

        Yes for 3rd receiver we have a ton of training camp bodies along with P Rich, Kasen and Smith. I think I have a lot more hope for P Rich than most though however.

  5. Volume12

    What happened to Bam Bam last night?

    Seahawks met with QB Dak Prescott.

    • cha

      “Cops” filmed live in Redmond LOL.

    • Bill Bobaggins

      Bam Bam had the cops called on him for looking into a gym he was trying to buy. Whatever.

      Dak Prescott would be super intriguing as a T-Jack replacement. This guy has all the intangibles, but needs some time to develop. I think about how the Patriots have been super solid at drafting a developmental QB (when they obviously don’t need a starter) and turning them into fantastic trade bait down the road. Prescott could definitely fall into that category.

      I’m concerned that you’d have to take him too early when there are obviously other needs on the team.

      • Miles

        The Patriots never really turned a QB into good trade bait, did they? They got like a 7th for Ryan Mallett. They will not be able to get back the value they used to purchase Garroppolo (2nd round pick). Did they trade Cassell or did he leave in free agency?

        I think drafting QBs for the sake of acquiring draft capital later is a fool’s errand. Teams are just not willing to trade much unless there is tape that shows the player can start definitively in the NFL. I think Alex Smith is the only one that worked out that way.

        • cha

          Cassell was traded with Vrabel for a 2nd round pick

          • Miles


            • cha

              I’d think teams don’t draft QBs specifically to develop & then trade, but rather as high-cost insurance for their starters, given how vital the position is. Cassell led them to 11 wins I think the year Brady went down.

              So I would think if a team drafts a QB say in the 3rd round and he’s able to backup the starter for 2-3 seasons, and after that time the starter is still going strong, I’d say recouping a 4th or 5th round pick for the backup in trade isn’t necessarily ‘taking a loss’ on a guy. You got 2-3 seasons of solid and cheap backup QB play and you recouped a draft pick in the process.

              • Miles

                I agree with you. I think that if you draft a QB it should be for the sake of ultimately having a good insurance policy on your starter. The Seahawks might need to consider that this year as they are getting tight against the cap. 450k for a backup would be really nice as opposed to $1.5m or more for Tarvaris. The only problem is that if he plays, you really need him to at least be functional in a pro-style NFL offense. A lot to ask of a mid-round rookie like Dak Prescott.

                • cha

                  Vernon Adams 7th rounder or UDFA. He’s RW Lite!

                  That’s what my heart says anyway, my head says he won’t make it in the NFL.

                • Volume12

                  I think Dak would fit in this offense though. It’s pretty simplified.

              • Attyla the Hawk

                I could see us doing that.

                The issue of course is getting a competent backup QB. Jackson (or some other minimum vet contract) costs about 2m. That’s not particularly difficult to absorb.

                Let’s say Seattle commits their 4th round pick (125) on Prescott. He’s going to cost in the 600k to 800k range annually over the course of four years. Likely there is a significant step backwards in quality initially. Also it’s worth noting that Jackson has a lot of starts to his credit. Something a rookie won’t have.

                In all, the savings is only around 1m. Which is a relative pittance. Not all backups sign for the vet minimum either. So that could balloon if Jackson were to resign elsewhere.

                Then of course there is the comp pick angle. It’d probably be similar to swapping an R4 pick this year for an R7 comp pick four years from now. Unless that rookie ends up starting some games because Wilson goes down. Then it could increase considerably.

                Ultimately, it’s not a horrible option. Particularly if you can get an approximate QB mirror for Wilson athletically so that you’re not having to throw out vast portions of your offense if we have to go to the backup.

                Prescott is an intriguing choice. I kind of thought he could be that mirror prospect during the year. The fact that Seattle has met with him probably means they are leaving that option open. If Jackson does happen to resign somewhere else this year I could really see that happen.

        • sdcoug

          Except they also benefit from years of uber-cheap backups they can train in their mold.

          Pats received the 34th pick (2nd round) for cassell and vrable, and reportedly could have had the 12th pick in a 3-team trade with Denver and TB. I’d say that is a pretty good return for a 7th rnd draft pick

          • Miles

            I truly believe the perception of QB trades has changed since then, though. Trading anything of value for an unproven QB is so risky that it isn’t worth it. There’s a very low success rate when this happens. I think most teams today will not trade a Day 1 or 2 pick for even the most intriguing backup QB (particularly one who never plays).

            • sdcoug

              I get what you’re saying, but there will always be interest as long as demand outweighs supply. If TB or KC made Glennon/Daniel available, there would be strong interest.

              • Miles

                I honestly think those guys could fetch 5th round picks at best. But if they are sought-after, you can get the same result by letting them back up your starter for cheap, then picking up a comp pick for the deal they sign in free agency. That would probably fetch the same or better.

    • bobbyk

      Nothing. He got the cops called on him because he’s black. Did as much wrong last night as I did by taking my wife and kids out for dinner. I follow him on Twitter.

      • sdcoug

        Let’s not be quick to pull that card. On the flipside you can argue 2 young girls got scared when a group of very large individuals repeatedly pounded on the window even though the establishment was clearly closed. No he didn’t do anything wrong, but he also wasn’t arrested.

        • GeoffU

          Hey now, don’t go pulling the big card yourself. Little skinny people commit crimes too you know.

          • sdcoug

            Hahaha I stand corrected

        • Scraps

          My wife was black — she died last year of cancer — and I had a very good friend, a cousin of my wife, who talked about stuff to me. He was very large, and very very mild. He had the cops called more that you would think, and pretty much there was never a call for that: just fear. I really got my head totally turned round by this. He says it’s just wearying. So, yeah, I’ll pull that card, once, to say “got scared” is not totally a free pass. And Kam was talking about it on his twitter account, which everybody uses to vent and get friends and acquaintances caught up in your life: even famous people.

          That’s all. Cheers!

          • Miles

            They played the 911 call today on Danny Dave and Moore. The woman said there were five guys that were standing outside, and that they were “banging on the windows.” She was asked if the men were trying to burglarize the place and she said something like, “I don’t know what they’re up to, but they’re up to no good.” The 911 dispatch was asking lots of questions as they do, and the woman got frustrated and said, “Can you just send someone out here?”

            Not a lot to take away from that. I just think it’s interesting she said “They’re up to no good.” That sounds like an assumption.

  6. Miles

    I had a dream last night that the Seahawks traded a first round pick for Josh Freeman.

    What the hell is happening to me.

    • Del tre

      I can tell you this much if That happened many tvs would get destroyed

  7. Miles

    Free Agency Notes:

    Chris Canty will not get his option picked up by the Ravens and will become a Free Agent.
    -> The Seahawks were interested last year, but Canty chose to go back to his old team.

    Arian Foster was released by the Texans.
    -> Like Forte, a guy who could come in and play the 3rd down role. Questions are would he be willing to do that, and would he come cheap? His injury issues will push his value down. My question is if he even wants to play. He strikes me as a guy that plays for the paycheck but really does not enjoy football. I’d probably pass on this one.

    • cha

      I don’t want Foster. The Texans scored one of the great UDFA finds of all time and ran him into the ground.

      It’ll be fascinating to see how he picks a new team. Will he go for the biggest contract to keep his investors happy?

      • Rob Staton

        “The best ability is availability”

    • Darth 12er

      He said he wants to keep playing. This guy went I drafted – I think he still has a lot to prove.

    • smitty1547

      Foster turned into a veagen a few years ago and has not been healthy since, I think he goes to Dallas.

  8. Coachmattson

    Arian Foster a hawk? Great back who is very versatile when healthy!

    • Bill Bobaggins

      Coming off a brutal injury and going to be over 30 when the season starts…I’d say stick to the youth in Rawls and Michael (and potentially a draft pick).

      • Volume12

        I think they’d be interested in him for a year or two at $3-$4.

        • Bill Bobaggins

          He would essentially replace Fred Jackson in that case. Is he the better back at this time? Possibly. Tough to tell coming off that injury though.

          • Volume12

            Yeah- they’d have to feel comfortable with his injury concerns.

            Maybe they just keep Freddy for another year, while adding a back in the draft?

            • Bill Bobaggins

              That’s what I think will happen. It’ll be really interesting to see what happens if Derek Henry is still available at #26. I still think they go o-line, but you never know.

              Worth noting…rumors had PCJS highly interested in Arian Foster when he was coming out of college.

              • Miles

                Don’t think we’ll spend much more than $1m on Foster. A complementary back is not worth much more.

  9. Volume12

    Looks like FA DT Tyrunn Walker is off the market.

  10. Matthew Ice

    What are everyone’s thoughts on some of the “2nd tier” free agent guards? Jahri Evans, and Brandon Brooks from Houston come to mind. Jahri Evans should still have some left in the tank, and will hopefully be looking at joining a contender. Brandon Brooks is still young (26), and has experience in the ZBS. Any others?

    I’m hoping we pick up someone to replace Britt at LG, draft a tackle 1st round, and then some center competition in rounds 3-4 for Patrick Lewis. Line would like like this:

    1st round tackle, free agent LG, Patrick Lewis/Rookie Center, Glowinski, Gilliam.

    • RealRhino2

      I’m liking UCLA’s Jake Brendel as a late-round pick at C.

      • Matthew Ice

        He’s got solid combine numbers, but definitely has T-rex arms, 31 5/8. I wonder how much that would be negated at Center. Still awfully short.

        • Volume12

          McGovern, Dahl, Glasgow, Seumalo, possibly Boehm.

          Brendel and Thuney are both interesting. I read somewhere that like 12-14 C’s have been drafted that weigh in at under 300 lbs, and only 2 have gone on to become starters. Just something to keep in mind.

          • Attyla the Hawk

            Been just getting into Thuney tape.

            If you want a metric ton of it, look up Jacoby Brissett on breakdown. He has like 16 games. Thuney is in on just about all of them (#54).

            The first two games (at LT) were actually quite impressive. Despite the short arms, he is actually incredibly good at keeping defenders at maximum distance. Pretty much destroyed Shaq Lawson in his Clemson matchup.

            Still looking for bad games. Thus far though haven’t gotten to know him. His testing values were really quite good. 6th best at both 3 cone and SS in this draft. 2nd best 40, Best overall 10y recorded. 6th best Broad.

            Honestly from a broad athleticism standpoint Thuney tested brilliantly. He isn’t the top 10 going back 5 years good like Bitonio. But for this draft class, his athleticism is probably top 4. The only event he wasn’t top 10 in the draft was vert. He was still in the top half there.

            • Attyla the Hawk

              For comparison’s sake:

              Spriggs (hands down combine winner?)
              Thuney (day 3?)
              Glowinski (R4 in 2015)

              4.94 40 | 1.75 10y | 31 bench | 31.5 Vert | 9’7″ BJ | 7.70 3C | 4.44 SS
              4.95 40 | 1.70 10y | 28 bench | 28.5 Vert | 9’2″ BJ | 7.47 3C | 4.54 SS
              5.20 40 | 1.83 10y | 31 bench | 29.5 Vert | 9’5″ BJ | 7.56 3C | 4.58 SS

              If you are of the mind that Spriggs was a Combine warrior who vaulted his way to R1, then Thuney is (at least testing wise), a player who should be gone by the first half of R2. If he’s on the board by 90, that’s a great athletic prospect.

              Guess we could add yet another really solid name to the list of probable interior OL prospects at 90 and 96.

              I think it’s almost a given that we’re not picking a Kelly/Martin in R2. Not with the glut of super prospects in R3/R4.

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