Everything is pointing to Sam Darnold being Seattle’s replacement for Geno Smith. So what does it mean? Why is he the person they’re targeting? What is the bigger picture?

Why has this happened?

Simply put, I suspect the Seahawks don’t see a big difference between Smith and Darnold apart from the price-tag.

Reports are saying Smith wanted $45m a year. We’ll see what contract he agrees in Vegas. If Darnold is closer to $30m, it’s not insignificant. The Seahawks will probably structure the contract to contain annual outs, too. It likely won’t be a firm commitment. They’d just be switching to a younger, cheaper bridge.

Frankly, that makes sense.

Why do they want a bridge?

It all comes down to drafting a quarterback. That has almost certainly been the plan since trading Russell Wilson in 2022. It was always going to be the plan, whether Smith stayed or whether they pivoted to someone else.

The reason it hasn’t happened so far isn’t anything to do with Seattle’s wants and desires. The 2022 quarterback class was extremely poor. They didn’t pass on anyone who has flourished in 2023. Last year, six quarterbacks went in the top-12 and then there was a gap to round five. The opportunity to invest in a good, young quarterback with a realistic chance to be a starter hasn’t existed.

Now, for the first time in four drafts, there’s a pool of quarterbacks who are interesting and potentially within a reasonable early-round range for the Seahawks. It doesn’t mean a fantastic franchise passer will emerge from the group. But there will be an opportunity for Seattle to invest in a signal caller to see if they can become a capable starter with upside for more.

That’s what it’s all about. Finding the next guy in the draft. Yet in order to bridge to that player and guard against missing out, you still need a starter on the roster. That’s just common sense.

I know some people viewed Geno Smith as more than a bridge. The Seahawks didn’t agree. This is all about hedging for April and if the player or players they want are available, they will draft a quarterback this year.

Don’t underestimate this draft class

In a recently published board, Todd McShay included four quarterbacks in his top-30 — Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough. I don’t think anyone should be surprised if all four of those players go in round one. Meanwhile, Quinn Ewers will likely be a top-50 selection and we could still see Jalen Milroe and Riley Leonard go earlier than many are projecting.

We have a habit of running with narratives online within the football community. This isn’t a bad quarterback class. It lacks top-end talent. But it’s not bad and potential starters exist, even if some players will need plenty of development.

Can Darnold help Seattle compete in 2025?

Seattle’s new scheme will share DNA with Minnesota’s, where Darnold played as part of a 14-win team. He’s reuniting with an offensive coordinator he knows well. This scheme has been quarterback-friendly in the past.

There are positives to Darnold’s play. Only Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson threw more ‘big time throws’ last season. His PFF grade when he has less than 2.5 seconds to throw (81.0) is better than Geno Smith’s (77.9). He only threw two turnover worthy plays in that scenario, compared to Smith’s three.

Darnold ranked 14th per QBR, while Smith was 21st. Darnold was ninth for EPA, Smith was 14th. For EPA with low-leverage passes weighted down, Darnold was eighth and Smith 12th.

There are also things to be concerned about. He threw a league high 27 ‘turnover worthy plays’. We all saw how poorly he played in Minnesota’s final two critical games. It’s also worth noting that Smith’s worst grades in 2024 came against the Bears, 49ers, Lions, Packers and Vikings. All key games. He also had a significant pick-six against the Rams. He had his bad moments too.

Neither player is the answer long term. There’s not much to say one is worth $10-15m more than the other though. And that’s the point.

What about the offensive line though?

Whoever was the quarterback this year, the line would need improvement. The Seahawks know that. Armed with $60m in effective cap space, they’ll likely be aggressive on Monday when the legal tampering period begins.

I don’t want to repeat myself too much but Will Fries is the ideal addition — potentially pairing him with a center he’s familiar with in Ryan Kelly. Drew Dalman is a better option at center but it might be tricky to sign Fries and Dalman — with the Bears said to be leading the chase for the Atlanta lineman.

I keep seeing comments that Darnold wouldn’t have coped behind Seattle’s 2024 O-line. The point is, he won’t have to play behind it in 2025. Moves will be made next week to change things up.

Why the meltdown?

Is Geno Smith really worth it? Really?

A 35-year-old increasingly expensive quarterback who has some excellent physical qualities but also isn’t likely to take you to the promise land.

I’ve seen people talking about becoming a Raiders fan, people hammering the Seahawks, some even ridiculously claiming that Seattle’s fan base has negatively influenced John Schneider, forcing him into this decision (like he’s taking any stock of what’s said on social media in his decision making).

Let’s put it this way. If Smith is as good as some people say — why didn’t any team outbid the Raiders for his services? It would’ve been easy to do. Why is he only worth the #92 pick? Why weren’t the Titans, Giants, Browns and Jets offering more? Was there even another suitor apart from Pete Carroll’s new team?

I appreciate the people who constantly went OTT in their criticism of Smith were equally annoying and their victory laps over the last 24 hours are unpalatable. But there’s a group of media types and Seahawks Twitter contributors who seem to think any person who doesn’t agree with them on Geno Smith is an idiot. These people need to get a grip.

What happens with DK Metcalf?

I’m really intrigued to see what happens here. As I said 10 minutes into our instant reaction stream, I think yesterday’s news increases the chances he will stay. Others have said similar. Could he end up extending his contract? Will he still be traded?

This is the next big domino to fall. It’ll be fascinating to see what happens.