It’s a ritual for many people. The day after the game you log on to PFF to check the grades. Or if you don’t have a subscription, you see them posted on Twitter or a forum. It’s part and parcel of following your team. PFF grades for years have been cited and discussed. Their usage has become widespread.
According to PFF’s website:
Every primetime NFL TV broadcast, is supported by PFF’s services in one form or the other. College TV broadcasts are rapidly following suit. NBC’s Emmy-winning Sunday Night Football franchise, has led the charge using PFF’s services to not only prep SNF analyst & PFF owner, Cris Collinsworth – but also to supports SNF’s research dept., studio programming, graphics team and VOD content.
The teams also use the data and work with PFF for their scouting services.
Are we right, however, to cling to their grades as much as we do?
Over the last couple of seasons I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched a game only to be baffled by the way they’ve graded things. It’s as if they’ve watched a totally different game.
For example, we could all see the major impact Ernest Jones Jr had on Seattle’s defense last year. According to PFF though, he didn’t play well at all. Twice he graded in the 40’s and five times in the 50’s. They believe he only had one great game (the loss to the Rams) and two good games (the rematch with the Rams and the first game against Arizona).
It didn’t make any sense but this example is only scratching the surface.
Leonard Williams finished last season on an absolute tear. Arguably, nobody was playing better than he was at his position. Yet if you average out his grades for the final five games of the season, he gets a 73.2. It’s not bad by any means but hardly seems to fairly represent just how impactful and disruptive he was.
This has followed into this season. To my eye at least — and I’m sure many will agree — Williams has been a terror for opponents. He has three sacks in four games, 11 pressures and five hurries. According to ESPN, he has a 48% run-stop win-rate (good for sixth in the league). He clearly looks like Seattle’s best player, at least on defense.
However, PFF reckons he had one very good game against Pittsburgh (82.5) and has otherwise been ‘OK’. His other three games get an average grade of 67.3
I’m sure people will try to explain this away by saying perhaps PFF is accounting for penalties (he’s had three for the season) or missed tackles (also three). Yet I feel like I know what I’m watching — a great player, playing his best ball, bossing the line of scrimmage and playing at an elite level.
Don’t take my word for it. Mike Macdonald said on the radio today, “I have a hard time thinking there’s another defensive lineman playing better than him.”
Well, according to PFF, there are 15 defensive tackles playing better than he is. That includes powerhouse stars such as Teair Tart, Tim Settle, Eddie Goldman, Poona Ford and Jowon Briggs.
That simply doesn’t pass the smell test in the slightest.
Let’s move on to Josh Jobe — another player who looked like he played very well against the Steelers and Saints, only to receive grades of 59.6 and 48.8 respectively. I tweeted out during the game last week that there can’t be many cornerbacks playing better than he is through three games. Silly me, there’s actually 47 cornerbacks playing better than he is according to PFF.
Now onto Sam Darnold. PFF had him graded as the top quarterback in football after the hammering of New Orleans. I thought his performance against Arizona was his best so far — a complete performance if you will. He made smart plays, he had a big run for a first down, he had a game-winning drive including a big-time throw to set up the field goal and he didn’t turn the ball over.
Apparently none of this matters because actually this was his worst performance of the season according to PFF by a considerable margin. He was graded at a 73.6. For comparison, he got an 82.6 against the 49ers in week one.
As Brady Henderson noted today, Darnold was 7/8 for 144 yards and a touchdown on passes 10+ yards downfield last night. He had a 69.2% completion percentage. His QBR was a 75.1 (as an average mark, that score would have him fourth in the NFL). Brian Baldinger discussed some of his ‘perfect’ throws in a video today. Even if you want to ding Darnold for the three sacks conceded, which seems unfair given on at least one of them the left tackle just got beat off the edge, is that really enough to undermine all the good things about his performance to warrant easily his worst grade of the season?
Meanwhile, Devon Witherspoon gave up eight completions on eight targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns, according to PFF data. When he was thrown at, the quarterback rating was 147.4. He missed a tackle too. His grade? 78.1. They are saying he had a better game than Darnold.
What are we doing here?
It’s getting to the point where I’m starting to doubt what I’ve seen every game. Instead of going all-in on what I think I saw — from Darnold, Williams and others — I’m now seeing the PFF grades and assuming they’re seeing something I haven’t.
I can’t be alone in doing that — and I’m really beginning to think we give PFF too much attention, too much respect and too much credence.
One of the big problems I have is with the wide range of the grades on offer. How can you grade from 0-100? Surely it should be a far smaller range. How can Derrion Kendrick be a 90.3 against the Saints but Jobe, who also appeared to play well, be a 48.8? Kendrick gave up 50% of his targets, Jobe gave up 63.6%. Is a 40-point difference per PFF really justified?
Also, how do they work out the overall grades? As I noted on Wednesday, the Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green has been given a massive 90.1 overall grade through four games. However, here are his game-by-game grades so far:
Alabama A&M — 94.1
Arkansas State — 71.4
Ole Miss — 69.7
Memphis — 78.7
How does one great performance against lowly Alabama A&M prop up the three other games? Further to that, Green leads all draft eligible quarterbacks for turnover worthy plays (seven in four games). How does that still warrant an elite grade?
You can go further. Who is even delivering the grades? Why are they required to rush through their observations to get the grades out ‘asap’ rather than taking their time? Do we really need the grades the next morning? Can’t it wait at least 48 hours? Why is there not more of an explanation behind some of the more head-scratching grades?
There have been numerous high-profile layoffs from the company and this article from last year titled, ‘Pro Football Focus’s Dysfunction Comes at the Worst Possible Time‘ lifts the lid on a company that has had some struggles at the top recently. It begs the question, can you trust what you’re being told?
I’m as much to blame as anyone for drawing attention to these grades. I share them, subscribe to PFF and get a lot of use out of their data collection systems. For the record, I really appreciate and respect a lot of what they continue to do. Yet I’m starting to think we need to reassess how we approach game grades.
I thought Sam Darnold was great against Arizona and refuse to accept it was his worst performance of the season. I think Leonard Williams has been an elite performer since week 12 last year and has arguably been the best defensive tackle in the league during this period. I refuse to accept he’s basically been ‘decent’ instead.
Do we need to kick the PFF habit? Do we need to pay less attention to their grades? Should we resist the urge to share and debate their scores as much as we do? I think the answer is yes. We should.
