Before I get into this week’s college football scouting breakdown, be sure to check out my latest spot with Puck Sports discussing the Seahawks:

Another week, another underwhelming watch

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to generate excitement about the 2026 draft class. I scanned a mock draft on CBS this week. It felt like a bunch of names thrown at the wall, hoping some may eventually stick as the process goes on.

I can’t remember a year where there’s so little to talk about in terms of round one. People might be tempted to point to the 2013 class. By the end of September 2012, Geno Smith was playing well enough at West Virginia to feel like he could be the #1 overall pick. People were celebrating the play of Utah’s Star Lotulelei (and he only fell in the end due to medical concerns). You had a number of players who were big names — Robert Woods, Tyrann Mathieu, Jarvis Jones, Luke Joeckel, Chance Warmack, Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo, Tavon Austin, Kenny Vaccaro, Tyler Eifert, Desmond Trufant, Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes and others.

The fact that most of these players ended up being NFL flops isn’t the point. There were players to enjoy and talk about in college football. Some went as early as expected while others (Smith, Woods, Mathieu) didn’t for differing reasons.

This year it’s incredibly challenging to work out who actually justifies a discussion about their placement in round one. It’s a barren desert. I think there are only two players — Caleb Downs and Spencer Fano — who you can say with any certainty will go early. Keldric Faulk could be another but his play is stop-start. Avieon Terrell is one of the few players to not tank his stock at Clemson so far. Reuben Bain Jr is getting a lot of attention at Miami but his game is predicated on power and not twitch.

The quarterbacks look thin and could get thinner (more on that in a bit). There are no obvious top-end receivers who you just know are destined for round one.

I don’t know what to make of this, other than to say this has so far been the trickiest year to know who to write about. It could mean two things. One, we see players promoted above where they’d otherwise go. For example, I really like Penn State guard Vega Ioane. Does he end up going 20 spots higher than he would do because of this class? Two, does it mean a player like LaNorris Sellers — who really has no business declaring for the NFL based on what we’ve seen so far (more on that in a moment) — turns pro and ends up being a top-five pick, maybe even the #1 overall pick, based on physical potential?

I do wonder if ahead of the trade deadline this year we might see more activity than usual if teams also feel this way about the draft. If not, it might lead to more veteran trades in the off-season.

I’m going to write-up my notes from last weekend as usual and share my thoughts but this is a unique looking draft class and not in a good way.

Will the Clemson players even turn pro?

Going into the season most draft pundits considered TJ Parker and Peter Woods potential top-10 picks. Some named Cade Klubnik QB1 for 2026. With the Tigers now at 1-3 for the season and with all three players playing within themselves, what does that mean for the future?

Dabo Swinney in the past has done a good job keeping everyone together. A disappointing season would typically lead to a call for everyone to stick around and leave on a brighter note. However, there now has to be thoughts about Swinney’s future. Does he continue in his role if they keep losing?

There’s no doubt though that with the exception of the aforementioned Terrell and other players like Will Heldt, the big names have tanked their stock so far. Woods again looked like he was going through the motions against Syracuse and Parker just doesn’t seem to be playing with any intensity. Neither looked like first round picks last weekend. I never bought into the Klubnik hype as a high pick and I think he’s been found-out as a not-likely option for the NFL.

Oklahoma defenders shine

Auburn struggled to pass-protect all game against Sooners, giving up a record-breaking 10 sacks in the game. Two Oklahoma defensive tackles caught my eye.

Gracen Halton is a lighter DT (approx 6-2, 295lbs) with good pass rush moves, agility and the quickness to shake blocks. There were some reps where he was unstopabble. Damonic Williams is bigger (6-1, 320lbs) and more orthodox but he plays with a lot of fire. He clearly is all about football in his interviews and he plays that way. Both were consistently impactful and while they may be mid-round type picks at best, they both deserve to be on your radar.

I wasn’t impressed with Auburn left tackle Xavier Chaplin. Tony Pauline really likes him and has talked him up but I see a lot of issues. His conditioning was a problem late in the game where he looked exhausted, to the point he seemed to give up a false start because he was blowing so hard. He’s a waist-bender and while he locks on well in contact and can finish when engaged, his footwork is tough to watch at times and his agility to mirror is suspect. He looked to me like the kind of tackle who will struggle on a Sunday.

Quarterback notes

I thought I’d share a note on each of the main draft eligible QB’s. Some of these will be short, some long.

John Mateer (Oklahoma)

The game against Auburn wasn’t plain sailing for Mateer but when the game was on the line he delivered. One big drive won the day, with an outstanding deep throw to the right sideline delivered with perfect touch and accuracy — before his explosive running ability led to a decisive score.

If the Sooners kept winning with Mateer playing the way he was, he would’ve had a legit shot at the Heisman and his draft stock was on the brink of exploding. In a down year he was showing legit traits that will interest teams. Combined with his personality and leadership, there’s every chance he was going to be a high pick. His team-mates love him, his interviews are perfect and he leaves everything on the field. He’s got an arm, he’s creative and he’s a great athlete. There’s an X-factor here that generally gets you drafted early. The comparisons to Baker Mayfield are not outrageous.

However, it’s been revealed this week that he’s having surgery after suffering a broken hand. He’s expected to miss a month but who knows if it’ll be longer. That will temper things. Oklahoma are not guaranteed to keep winning and he might not be walking back into a playoff tilt. The big question now is — is he more likely to return next year to try and achieve major success at OU? Mateer only turns 22 next April so he’s not an older player like Garrett Nussmeier.

My hunch is this injury makes it more likely he doesn’t turn pro. This is only his second season as a starter in college. A full season and emerging as a possible QB1 while leading Oklahoma to a great season could’ve pushed him to the NFL. Now, I’d say it’s more likely we see him back with the Sooners in 2026.

Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)

There wasn’t much to learn from a contest against SE Louisiana but Nussmeier did what he had to in the game. For me there’s no doubt he remains QB1. His technical ability is just on a different level to any of the other quarterbacks eligible for 2026. He has the most big time throws so far this season (11).

However, despite being a better runner than most realise — plus a much more accomplished thrower on the run than anyone’s giving him credit for — he doesn’t have the major physical upside to feel like he has a great ceiling. I think Nussmeier can be excellent in the right offense. Put him with Shanahan, McVay, O’Connell (and maybe Kubiak) and I think he can shine. His execution within structure and ability to throw with anticipation could make him very good very quickly. Throw him onto a bad team with a poor offensive schemer and he might fold like a pack of cards if you expect him to elevate everything with his mere presence.

At the moment I’d say he has a strong opportunity to go in round one but LSU have some big games coming up. He needs to avoid doing what he did against Florida and forcing passes. Of all the quarterback prospects though, he has the biggest collection of NFL throws on tape.

LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)

In terms of physical talent, nobody comes close to Sellers. He can drive the ball downfield better than anyone else. He can also throw with unique air and touch and still generate a lot of distance on his throws. Purely on traits, Sellers is on a different level.

However, he just isn’t playing well enough. As you could see against Missouri last weekend, there are some great throws and some mind-boggling errors. His big time throw to turnover worthy play ratio is 6:4 in 2025. His QBR is the third worst among QB’s I’m tracking this year (53.7) and his EPA is appalling (6.8).

It is so clear that this is a player who needs more time on the field. I’m concerned that the poor quality of the 2026 draft and the NFL’s endless need for quarterbacks will push him towards turning pro when he isn’t ready. Then he’ll end up on a bad team and probably failing. He could be the #1 pick in 2027 if he develops properly. I hope he plays the long game.

Carson Beck (Miami)

I think you just have to say good luck to anyone drafting him with a view to starting at the next level. Beck is a tease. He makes good throws, has shown an ability to extend at times that I didn’t know he had. He’s going to end up helping a strong looking Miami to another good season. Yet he just can’t help but make really bad decisions leading to turnovers and/or near turnovers.

He did it again against Florida. He’s going to be a liability at the next level with his propensity to make ill-advised throws. His QBR is strong (81.5) but the mistakes have continued from last season. He doesn’t see the field well enough and is throwing into dangerous areas constantly.

Taylen Green (Arkansas)

I’ve now watched all of his games from 2025 so far. Tony Pauline and Dane Brugler reckon the league has its eye on Green and you can see why. He’s a big player — listed at around 6-6 and 225lbs. He looks a bit like Colin Kaepernick. He’s very capable of throwing on the run, he attacks the middle of the field with his arm, he can run around to extend or make plays with his legs and he never looks frantic — he always appears calm in or out of the pocket. He can deliver big throws into tight windows and attack downfield. His touch throws on a deeper range are delivered nicely. He has plus traits.

However, there are too many turnover worthy plays. He had too many reckless passes in his most recent game against Memphis and the two interceptions he threw were bloody awful. He has seven TWP’s in four games which is simply too many. Green has thrown 28 interceptions in three-and-a-bit seasons as a starter. That’s not good enough.

I’d also argue he hasn’t elevated either Boise State or Arkansas. Kaepernick propelled himself into the early second round range after a 13-1 final season at Nevada, including ending a 24-game winning streak for Kellen Moore and Chris Petersen’s Boise State. Green is 16-13 for his two teams in the last three seasons and Arkansas’ next three games are Notre Dame, Tennessee and Texas A&M. He could have a .500 record easily by the end of this run.

The massive void for talent and the desperation for quarterbacks will likely keep Green firmly on the NFL radar because the alternatives are not great and he does carry a lot of upside. It’s very easy to imagine a good coach working with him to fix the decision making and really promote his physical tools. Get it right and you could be on to a winner. There’s a lot more upside and potential here than with Drew Allar, for example, because of his running ability and general mobility.

Here’s another thing to note. He leads all of the 2026 eligible quarterbacks for QBR (90.5) and EPA (41.9). That isn’t going to be ignored given the increasing importance of analytics in the league. A reminder of what we talked about earlier this year. Quarterbacks with a QBR above 80 have often gone early. Between 2021-2025, this is where players with a +80 QBR have been drafted:

Round One — 14
Round Two — 1
Round Three — 4
Round Four — 1
Later rounds — 2

It’s worth noting that the two players taken later on were Kurtis Rourke (recovering from an injury, playing in a QB friendly system) and Will Howard. Ian Book was taken in round four — a player with limited physical upside and picked way earlier than he should’ve been — possibly due to the data. Among the round three players taken was Seattle’s selection of Jalen Milroe.

The point is — when you are big, athletic and have a good QBR, this has been a consistent recipe to go early in the draft.

When you consider Green’s physical talent and upside, teams might be willing to overlook the high number of risky and ill-advised throws to shoot for potential. He turns 23 in October so turning pro next year is more likely for him compared to say John Mateer or LaNorris Sellers. If neither of those players turn pro, don’t be surprised if Green goes a lot earlier than people currently think. He needs to play better though — and Arkansas have to stop throwing away games.

A final note on Green relating to PFF. They are grading him very highly (90.1) but can someone explain to me why he’s getting a 90.1 grade? Here are his game-to-game grades for the season so far:

Alabama A&M — 94.1
Arkansas State — 71.4
Ole Miss — 69.7
Memphis — 78.7

How does that equate to 90.1 overall? Make it make sense. It’s as if one really good performance against Alabama A&M is doing all of the heavy lifting.

Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

I found it really difficult to judge Mendoza against Illinois, my first real look at him this year. Illinois played very poorly and the RPO-heavy system he’s in is beyond friendly.

Mendoza leads the NCAA for completion percentage (75.2%) which is indicative of the system he’s in. Games against Oregon and Penn State will make for good opportunities to study Mendoza closely but I’m not convinced we’re going to get a great pro-feel for his upside in this offense with the way it operated on Saturday. His QBR (84.5) is second only to Arkansas’ Green.

Drew Allar (Penn State)

He’s played really poorly so far this season. He’s been inaccurate, he’s not throwing with enough anticipation and his mobility is stiff and awkward. He’s thrown one single big time throw so far, despite Penn State’s cupcake schedule. He has the worst QBR among the top draft eligible quarterbacks (38.8) and the second worst EPA (5.3). At the moment he doesn’t look remotely close to being a high draft pick. He has to play a lot better than we’ve seen so far in 2025.

Cade Klubnik (Clemson)

As with Allar, based on what we’ve seen so far you can’t draft Klubnik. He’s thrown bad interceptions, not elevated his team, doesn’t have big physical tools and simply doesn’t look very good. Other lesser-known quarterbacks have outplayed him. His QBR is second worst among draft eligible quarterbacks (38.8) but on the plus side — his EPA (which is still the worst among QB’s) is no longer in the negative (he’s shifted it up to 1.4).

Sawyer Robertson (Baylor)

He’s big, athletic and has a good arm — but there’s just a real vibe of ‘good not great’ about Robertson. He’s also making too many bad throws — six turnover worthy plays in four games, including three interceptions in his last two games. There’s a lot of upside potential here but I don’t think, so far, he’s pushed himself into very early round contention. To his credit, he does have 11 big time throws — joint most with Nussmeier.

Sam Leavitt (Arizona State)

He reminds me a bit of Brock Purdy. He’s not the biggest but he’s shifty and can move around. There was a really smart play against Baylor on Saturday where he navigated through a collapsing pocket, kept his eyes downfield and threw with accuracy on the move despite having to put his body in an unorthodox position to throw. It was very impressive. So was a big scramble up the middle — dodging defenders for a decent gain. He has that frustrating (for opponents) ability to make things happen when he sets off. It’s fun to watch.

His arm is surprisingly good in that he can generate a lot of distance, if not a lot of revs or torque. Accuracy wise he can make smart completions on a short and mid-range to move the sticks. As a plus facilitator, you can imagine him driving an offense and being quite productive.

He’s making too many mistakes though — and he’s another quarterback this year attempting passes that have you watching through your fingers. He has six turnover worthy plays so far, second most behind Arkansas’ Green. Against Baylor he was really lucky not to throw two horrendous redzone interceptions. That would’ve taken six points off the board (two field goals were kicked instead) in a game Arizona State won 27-24.

For me he should go the distance with Arizona State and not declare for the 2026 draft. He only turns 21 in December and there should be no rush to turn pro. He’s a fun player but has to minimise the mistakes.

Haynes King (Georgia Tech)

If you want a quarterback who’s going to give you absolutely everything as a runner and passer, King’s your man. He has consistently elevated Georgia Tech when he’s on the field. They should’ve beaten Georgia last year and they’re unbeaten so far this season. King drags his team to victory and he limits mistakes — he hasn’t thrown a single turnover worthy pass so far. I’m not sure he has quite enough upside as a technical or physical thrower of the football to be a NFL starter but it won’t be for the lack of trying.

Quarterback numbers to know so far

Big time throws

Garrett Nussmeier — 11
Sawyer Robertson — 11
Darian Mensah — 10
Sam Leavitt — 8
Dante Moore — 7
John Mateer — 7
Byrum Brown — 7
LaNorris Sellers — 6
Behren Morton — 6
Taylen Green — 5
Cade Klubnik — 5
Carson Beck — 4
Haynes King — 3
Fernando Mendoza — 3
Drew Allar — 1

Turnover worthy plays

Taylen Green — 7
Sam Leavitt — 6
Sawyer Robertson — 6
Darian Mensah — 5
Garrett Nussmeier — 4
John Mateer — 4
LaNorris Sellers — 4
Cade Klubnik — 3
Byrum Brown — 3
Behren Morton — 2
Drew Allar — 2
Carson Beck — 2
Dante Moore — 1
Fernando Mendoza — 1
Haynes King — 0

QBR

Taylen Green — 90.5
Fernando Mendoza — 84.5
Dante Moore — 83.7
Carson Beck — 81.5
Haynes King — 76.8
Sawyer Robertson — 75.7
Garrett Nussmeier — 75.2
John Mateer — 74.2
Darian Mensah — 72.5
Behren Morton — 62.9
Byrum Brown — 62.1
Sam Leavitt — 60.9
LaNorris Sellers — 53.7
Cade Klubnik — 46.8
Drew Allar — 38.8

EPA

Taylen Green — 41.9
Darian Mensah — 26.3
Sawyer Robertson — 24.4
John Mateer — 22.9
Garrett Nussmeier — 22.0
Fernando Mendoza — 21.9
Sam Leavitt — 20.3
Dante Moore — 19.4
Carson Beck — 17.9
Haynes King — 17.6
Behren Morton — 11.2
Byrum Brown — 11.0
LaNorris Sellers — 6.8
Drew Allar — 5.3
Cade Klubnik — 1.4