This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
There is always something very familiar about the Vikings whenever they are matched up with the Seahawks.
Whether it is a rematch of a particularly hard-fought game, encountering each other when playoff implications are on the line or a player who is facing his old team — the matchup always seems to have an extra something to it.
Today’s game checks all three of those boxes.
Last season’s Week 16 game cemented the Vikings as a top seed and was another game Seahawks fans came away from thinking ‘if only.’ This season it appears the fortunes have reversed for these two franchises as their paths have diverged wildly after two of the bigger offseason makeovers in the NFL.
As a result the Seahawks are firmly in the Wild Card race and are trying to keep up with the Rams. The Vikings have lost five of their last six. Their Turnover Differential in that stretch is a dismal -10 and their Quarterback situation – the envy of the NFL last year – has turned sour, while Sam Darnold has found a home and a very effective system in Seattle.
Undrafted Rookie Max Brosmer will be making his first NFL start at Quarterback and the Vikings are struggling to put a healthy Offensive Line together.
This should be a comfortable win for the Seahawks. If not with a wide margin on the scoreboard, with statistics and the knowledge that they have the game in hand.
How can they do that?
Exercise Patience on Offense
The Vikings’ last three losses (to Baltimore, Chicago and Green Bay) have been remarkably similar. Their opponents have made a firm commitment to run the ball and would not waver despite not regularly gashing the Viking defense on the ground.
The Vikings currently sit at #12 on run defense with 4.0 yards per rush conceded. Yet these three teams only were able to gain 3.73 yards per carry in their wins. So where was the effectiveness?
First Downs and explosive runs.
Those three teams recorded 37 First Downs on the ground. Despite their low average conceded, the Vikings currently sit at #30 in the NFL with 99 Rushing First Downs conceded (they are two short of being dead last).
They also recorded 11 runs of ten yards or more in those three games. The Vikings are #24 in the NFL in explosive runs conceded with 40 on the season (Seahawks defense is #2 with only 20).
It is not hard to see the Seahawks queuing up a ‘hat on a hat’ blocking scheme with Robbie Ouzts leading the way for a healthy gain, not unlike this run by Keaton Mitchell three weeks ago.
Frankly, this is right in the Seahawks’ wheelhouse. They are the #1 run-committed team in the NFL currently. They just need to keep grinding away at it. Since they are wearing their Throwbacks, they can look back to the time Marshawn Lynch would batter defenses for three quarters, not getting big yardage or many breakaways but then put the game away by running through a worn-out defense late. That mentality would serve them very well.
There is a flipside to this — and another reason why they will need patience — the Vikings have conceded the fewest explosive pass plays in the NFL, with only 27 (for reference, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 21 himself so far this season).
There is some context to this. The Vikings blitz at an incredibly high rate (42.9% of plays) and generate regular pass pressure. When they are not blitzing, they are giving you blitz looks and then backing out of them to keep the offense guessing.
They are in the middle of the pack when it comes to sacks but the blitzing is more of a total defense tool to influence offenses into the plays they want to defend – shorter plays in front of them they can limit the damage on.
One side effect of this play is they only have three interceptions on the whole season. They are sacrificing one stat for more overall effectiveness.
That is not to say the Seahawks should not attempt any deep passes to Smith-Njigba or the other receivers. It is just a strong recommendation that they can find success if they play deliberately and pick their spots.
While Sam Darnold’s effectiveness when being blitzed is dramatically worse than when teams do not, this can be balanced a bit by a plan that is run-heavy and allows him to use his quick release and familiarity from being around the Vikings to take some shots.
A second side effect of their constant blitzing and forcing teams into shorter throws? They do not gain a significant advantage when they do blitz:
Those numbers are nearly identical. If Darnold can find his quick-twitch targets like Cooper Kupp and A.J. Barner, they can move on this defense with ease.
If they can time up a screen pass to Rashid Shaheed or Kenneth Walker on a blitz by the Vikings, they could run all day there.
It does require patience though. This game should be a runaway win — but it may take a little more hammering at the boulder to get it to split than it normally does.
Dealing With a Rookie Quarterback
It is always a challenge to see what a new Quarterback brings to the offense. All the Seahawks have to work from is Brosmer’s college tape, some preseason reps and the eight passes he has thrown in the NFL.
I doubt that Kevin O’Connell is going to go to one extreme or the other with Brosmer. He will not put training wheels on him, nor is he likely to ask him to throw forty passes either. That said, the Vikings are one of the NFL’s most pass-dependent offenses. Look for a lot of screen passes and other motions to make the game slow down a bit for Brosmer. Having Ernest Jones back will be a great help in this area. He has a quickness in diagnosing and attacking ball-carriers that can prevent the Vikings from gaining momentum with Yards after the Catch.
Typically, when a rookie or a backup enters the game, defenses call off the blitzing dogs a bit. Young, untested players may have a hard enough time adapting to standard coverages and the speed defenders play with in the NFL.
This fits nicely with the Seahawk defense already, as they are a high-pressure, low-blitz defense. I have no doubt Mike Macdonald will still have a blitz package at times, but may reserve it for key situations.
The Vikings run about 60% of their offense out of shotgun. With Brosmer in, look for that number to grow to around 75-80% to give him as much processing time as possible.
With their speed on defense, a few key downs may be won by putting a press coverage plan in play to disrupt the timing of some passes and make Brosmer scramble a bit and go to his second or third read. While he may occasionally make a play in this manner, the odds are good the defense can control this game and give the offense more shots to score points.
This is where the offense may help the defense even more than the defense can help itself. One of the best ways to put pressure on a young Quarterback is on the scoreboard and on the clock. If the offense can build a two or three score lead with a 9-minute drive or two while the Brosmer is getting settled in, the margin for error gets slimmer and the pressure will grow mightily.
