This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
We always knew it was going to come to this.
The NFC West has featured three of the NFL’s best teams this season. The chances the Seahawks would have to play one or both in the playoffs were high. And so it has come to pass,. Now the Seahawks have the NFL rarity of playing two straight games against the same opponent.
What has changed since Week 18?
For the Seahawks, Charles Cross and Coby Bryant are back. Josh Jones is out, so Amari Kight will back-up Cross. Sam Darnold has suffered an oblique injury but intends on playing.
For the Niners, Trent Williams will play but George Kittle and Ji’Ayir Brown will not. They also have two prominent players that are questionable to play: Wide Receiver Ricky Pearsall and Linebacker Dee Winters.
Last week, San Francisco traveled to Philadelphia and had a bounce-back game of sorts to secure this matchup.
We all would be perfectly happy with a carbon copy of Week 18’s dominant win but we also know that no two games are alike. Resetting and looking towards this game with a fresh perspective is what is best. After all, that is how both Head Coaches look at it.
The Watch Points for Week 18 are still valid. However, I wanted to add some thoughts about this game, what has happened in the last couple of weeks and how the Seahawks can really push themselves to the next level.
And it begins with beating San Francisco.
Poise Under Pressure Will Be Critical
Every team in the NFL needs this quality to succeed. The Seahawks have lacked it at times, even as recently as Week 18.
Sam Darnold tripped and put the ball on the ground attempting a handoff to Zach Charbonnet. Jason Myers missed two field goals. Darnold not being able to pull the trigger on a goal line pass to Charbonnet early in the game set off a chain of events that led to the Seahawks not getting any points after a fantastic early drive.
Not making costly errors or getting too far inside your own head with play calls will be very important.
Poise was a key ingredient for San Francisco in beating the Eagles last week. Brock Purdy threw two interceptions and yet the defense minimized the damage, only allowing one Field Goal from them. The offense called a trick play and executed it to perfection despite the number of variables that could go wrong including Jauan Jennings getting walloped by a defender just after letting the pass go.
Meanwhile, the Eagles were a bit of a mess.
A.J. Brown had three dropped passes and he and Head Coach Nick Sirianni had a shouting match on the sideline.
The defense failed to stop Brock Purdy on his favorite in-breaking routes, conceding a 70% completion rate after leading the NFL with the lowest completion rate on them during the regular season.
And the last drive was a microcosm of the dysfunction: The Eagles had driven the ball to the Niners’ 20-yard line with about 1:30 left in the game. They had all three timeouts, so their playbook was wide open.
On first down Jalen Hurts was sacked but that wasn’t the problem. The Eagles let almost 32 seconds leech off the clock before the next play. With three timeouts in their pocket! They then called three straight very uninspiring pass plays that all were incomplete. Ballgame.
On the previous series, Saquon Barkley had the following runs: seven yards, eight yards, nine yards, six yards, and zero yards. Jalen Hurts also had a three-yard scramble that turned into an 18-yard play with a late hit penalty.
The Niners defense was worn and gassed. The Eagles had all their timeouts and yet not once did they call a run in that sequence. There is nothing quite like not using your best players and your best plays when you most need them.
We have talked many times this year about the Seahawks turning the ball over and the occasional head-scratching play that breaks the rhythm of the offense and stalls a drive. They need to play as clean as game as they possibly can in this area.
Sam Darnold led the NFL in turnovers this year. That is not a formula for playoff success. Why? Everything in the playoffs is harder than the regular season. You are facing the best teams in the league. The stakes are higher. Coaches win Super Bowls scheming to take away your strengths and disrupt everything you like to do. Plays and schemes they have been secretly working on all season? Now is when they unleash them.
The sequencing and execution of their plays will be critical. Klint Kubiak’s messages in Darnold’s helmet must be well-chosen.
And on defense, they will have to take away Brock Purdy’s poise and force him into some poor decisions. Remembering that Purdy and the Niners absolutely love in-breaking routes, have a look at his Week 18 passing chart against this Seahawk defense:
The defense did not allow a single catch in the middle of the field more than six yards. They essentially took away his favorite, most comfortable passing route and turned him into a checkdown merchant. Combining that with snuffing out the run game they rendered the Niners offense toothless. A repeat performance along those lines would be most welcome.
They also need to move Purdy off his spot with pressure up the center of the field. We have talked about this several times: He is more effective in evading pressure from the edges and making plays. Pressure up the middle blocks his vision for those beloved in-breakers, as well as disrupting his mechanics, which his passing effectiveness depends on, given that he does not have a world-class arm. The Seahawks have also reaped the benefits of getting their hands up to tip passes.
Some Other Game Notes
— The opening drive by the offense might tell us a lot about Sam Darnold’s injury and what kind of game he might have. Likely Kubiak will call a package of runs and screen plays that do not require much from Darnold in the early going. That said, if Darnold has a full range of motion, it might be worth mixing in a deep throw to test the defense and see if they can catch them sleeping. Perhaps a route mixing receivers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba to draw coverage and Rashid Shaheed going deep.
— San Francisco’s defense continues to be susceptible to Tight End play. Last week, Dallas Goedert four catches for 33 yards, two first downs and a Touchdown. He also added a Tush Push rushing Touchdown. A.J. Barner could easily duplicate that performance, particularly with Brown out and Winters questionable. Eric Saubert might also spring free for a key catch or two along with his blocking duties.
— Week 18 had a different feel to it. The Seahawks played with purpose, intensity and aggression. Offensive Linemen were regularly spotted 5-7 yards downfield leading blocks. Kenneth Walker ran with renewed determination. And the defense flew to ball carriers and never missed an opportunity to lay a good hit on them. If you think a bye week might be an issue, just remember Week Nine. After a bye, they went to Washington and hung 31 points on the Commanders in the first half alone. I seriously doubt Mike Macdonald will let his players take their foot off the gas for this one.
— Speaking of toothless, the San Francisco pass rush has not improved in the least. Last week they blitzed Jalen Hurts eleven times. They produced one sack and zero other pressures in 36 drop backs for a 2.7% pressure rate. Put another way, they blitzed on 30% of drop backs and got less than 3% pressure. It speaks to how poor the Eagle offense was operating that Hurts did not tear the backfield apart. Sam Darnold may have a strained oblique but his vision and decision-making are intact. Burning those blitzes and setting up timely screens very well could make this game as easy as Week 18.
— The Seahawks played an extremely effective brand of football in Week 18 on both sides of the ball. The offense forced seven missed tackles. And the defense? They had none. Not one tackle missed. That is a pure distillation of the difference between the current coaching regime and the last one.
