This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
What a way to end the regular season.
A 13-3 Seahawks team with minimal drama and so much upward potential playing for home field advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs is incredibly meaningful. A milestone moment in the team’s history to be sure.
Standing in their way are the rival San Francisco 49ers — a team on no less of a long, strange trip of a season. They stand at 12-4 despite injuries to nearly every key player, a dramatic impasse with their best Wide Receiver that just will not end and a defense that has been intelligently cobbled together with duct tape and packing peanuts.
These teams met in Week One and despite the score being 17-13, San Francisco clearly was the better team. They owned the majority of the Time of Possession, had ten more first downs than the Seahawks and collected almost 400 yards of offense.
And still, the Seahawks were in the game until a fumble by Sam Darnold in the Red Zone sealed the game in the last seconds. Until then they had fought and clawed, blocking a Field Goal try and picking Brock Purdy off twice. Darnold had a beautiful sideline throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to get into range to win the game. But it was not to be. Some early-game struggles with playcalling and establishing the run and some key misplays by Tariq Woolen in coverage were just too much to recover from.
Many things have changed for those teams since that game.
For San Francisco, stars Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and likely Trent Williams will not suit up for this game. They have acquired Keion White, Dee Winters has stepped into a bigger role and Brock Purdy has been on fire of late, completing 72% of his passes with 11 touchdowns against two interceptions in his last three games.
The Seahawks look entirely different as well. On defense, Nick Emmanwori made his NFL debut in Week One but only took four snaps before getting injured. He figures to have a far greater impact on this game. Uchenna Nwosu missed the game but has returned to his old form as a critical component of the defense.
The defensive unit as a whole has emerged as the obvious standard-bearer for the team. Offensively, Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s nine catches for 124 yards was just the beginning of third season renaissance. He has taken his game to an entirely different level by succeeding in so many different ways. Rashid Shaheed has been acquired to add another element to the attack and Charles Cross will miss this game at Left Tackle.
The things that seem self-evident about these two teams are the most direct truths we can deliver about how this game is going to play out:
1 — Whoever makes the least mistakes will likely win
The Seahawks have been making mistakes and still winning — committing eight turnovers in the last six weeks while winning every one of those games.
San Francisco is following suit. They have five in the last six weeks but have also won every game.
What makes this game different is the stakes: Win, and you get a bye week to rest up and heal, you will not need to travel again, and it only takes two home wins to get to the Super Bowl. Lose, and it takes three (probably all) road wins with no rest.
Both teams know they must improve. It is very easy to shrug and say they will find a way to win despite their mistakes. The prospect of having months off to ponder what might have been focuses the mind like nothing else.
2 — Establishing and leaning on the run game is critical
The Seahawks have done an admirable job bottling up Christian McCaffrey in the running game in the two matchups since McDonald was hired. He has 148 rushing yards for 3.6 yards per carry with no touchdowns. They simply must keep a lid on him to contain this San Francisco offense.
On offense, the Seahawks have run the ball 75 times in the past two weeks and have picked up 287 yards on the ground. And yet, their fit and in-game timing still seem off as they seem to only be able to have one successful Running Back at a time.
3 — The game may come down to Special Teams
The Seahawks boast one of the NFL’s best units. Jay Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for molding this team into one that is deeply invested in the success of the unit and thus play like every single snap is a critical one. Shaheed has touchdowns in both aspects of the return game, they have blocked Field Goal tries and Jason Myers has been very consistent of late.
San Francisco is likewise strong after some early-season stumbles. Eddie Pinero has been an excellent in-season acquisition, Thomas Morestead is a top punter and Sky Moore is dangerous as a returner.
Aside from those primary factors, there is one more key component of a win.
The Seahawks Must Win Between the Numbers
The center of the field, from the running back on offense all the way to the deep safety on defense is always central to the battleground of a game. But it is even more essential that the Seahawks play well there in this particular game. There are several reasons why.
The first is with Brock Purdy.
The great majority of his throws are between the tackles. He rarely throws outside the numbers with depth downfield. Maybe four or five times per game. It is just not his forte.
When he does throw outside the numbers, it is usually to set up a screen at the Line of Scrimmage.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is scheming, timing and misdirection. He frequently has Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle motioning all around the offense pre snap to get defenders’ eyes focused on the wrong thing. Then he attacks the middle of the field with slants and in-breaking routes. Purdy is excellent at finding his receivers quickly and delivering the ball before the pass rush can affect the play.
Defending that requires real discipline. The type of discipline that turns the tables and gets Purdy’s eyes telling him the wrong things.
It starts with providing inside pass rush pressure and making the pocket quickly uncomfortable. Byron Murphy, Jarran Reed and Leonard Williams need to have an impactful game. Purdy is much more comfortable fleeing the pocket from edge rushers and keeping his eyes downfield. He is only 6’1” and the quick passing scheme makes it easier for him to find his targets. If he has to navigate his own linemen being pushed into his face, his mechanics can suffer and he is prone to mistakes.
That is not to say the line will always have time to make this happen. Purdy is one of the NFL’s fastest guns from snap to throw. There are going to be plays the line cannot affect from a pressure perspective. However, getting a hand up to bat a ball down (or tip it for an interception) can be a very effective means to keep this offense from accelerating. In fact, Purdy so often throws in rhythm defenders may have an easier game timing up their jumps.
It also would be quite helpful if defenders can get hands on the receivers right off the line and disrupt the timing of the play. Take away Purdy’s first option and make him scan the field a little. Give your pass rushers an extra second to get home.
Then there are the Tight Ends.
Both teams are among the NFL’s poorest at defending the position. The Seahawks have given up more catches and yards and the Niners have conceded far more touchdowns.
Ty Okada and Nick Emmanwori will play pivotal roles here on defense. Knowing where George Kittle is on every single play will be critical. Letting him have a free release and not swarming to him before the ball is thrown cannot happen again. Jake Tonges is also a weapon that needs attention.
On offense, A.J. Barner can be an effective weapon against this defense. With the Niners short on quality personnel he should definitely garner more than the one target he got in Week One.
The Niners are low on pass rushers and have one of the NFL’s worst rushes statistically. To be fair, their last few games they have scratched and clawed their way up to just below league average.
That said, between their Tight End record, the fact that they are horrid at defending the opposition’s second Wide Receiver and the fact that Smith-Njigba eats Robert Saleh’s preferred coverage for breakfast, there should be plenty of opportunities for Sam Darnold to flourish.
A steady mix of running and passes underneath the coverage that move the ball down the field at a measured pace seems to be in order. This feels like a game that Cooper Kupp can play a critical role in: Take the Niners’ third or fourth string defenders out for a ride and find the soft spots in their defense. Present Darnold with a reliable consistent target and press the defense to its breaking point.
Year End Thoughts
This has been one of the best years of covering the Seahawks in the entire history of my fandom. Seeing John Schneider make so many courageous moves in the offseason, attacking need areas and managing the salary cap so very well has been a joy I had feared would never happen again.
Mike Macdonald has fulfilled the vision we all had when we waited with painstaking patience for his season in Baltimore to be over so the Seahawks could make their move in hiring him. He has proven to be the exact antidote to the last few years of malaise and has recharged the fanbase in ways that have been incredible.
Once again, it has been my absolute pleasure to spend the season with you talking about the Seahawks. Thank you for reading and all of your positive feedback. I treasure every comment.
Let’s do this for three more games this year, shall we?
Thanks to Rob, who continues to selflessly share his space with me. Being able to contribute to the Seahawks discussion that is of the highest quality is an immense privilege. Thank you.
