I appreciate the last thing Seahawks fans want to do nine days before the Super Bowl is fret about the offensive coordinator.
However, if it wasn’t for the game next week, this would be the biggest topic in town.
I’d even go as far as saying this — the decision Klint Kubiak makes over his future — and the way the Seahawks react to his potential departure — will be the most significant thing the franchise does this year in a football sense, Super Bowl aside.
The main reason the Seahawks are playing the Patriots next week is their balanced roster. Their ability to win with their offense, defense and even special teams has been critical to their success.
Last year the offense was terrible and they missed out on the playoffs completely. A regression from the success of 2025 could significantly impact their chances of sustained progress.
Again, I know a lot of people won’t want to think this way when positive vibes are the order of the time. Especially given fans now have to contend with reports today over a potential sale. However, this is too important to put your fingers in your ears and cover your eyes.
I also think there’s a deeper conversation to have on this topic beyond the typical ‘why would he want to go to the Raiders or Cardinals?’ or ‘wait until next year’.
There are only 32 of these jobs in the world. It’s very easy to look at the two available openings and wonder why Kubiak would want to take the plunge. It’s also very easy to cite potential openings next year and say ‘just wait for a better job in 2027’.
You never know what’s going to happen in 12 months. Perhaps Seattle’s offense struggles post-Super Bowl and he becomes a less attractive candidate? Maybe one or two great jobs come open but the teams in question go in a different direction? What if a big name unexpectedly becomes available, as we saw with John Harbaugh this year, and they get the top gig?
Then there’s the salary. Newly appointed Head Coaches are getting at least $10-12m a year these days. Even the Jets gave that to Aaron Glenn. Kubiak is in such a strong bargaining position with two teams vying for his services. He’s also about to coach in the Super Bowl having just had the play-calling experience of his career last weekend. He is likely to get into the $13-14m range where Ben Johnson sits, if not more.
That will be a massive pay increase on his offensive coordinator salary in Seattle. As noted previously, Kellen Moore was on $2.5m in Philadelphia in 2024 and that was considered a top salary for an OC. Chip Kelly getting $6m is a red-herring because that was an outlier. It does show how willing the Raiders are to spend big though — and speaks to how willing they might be to offer Kubiak a massive deal beyond anyone’s expectations.
Don’t be surprised if they do whatever it takes to get their man, potentially stretching beyond $15m a year. Then it becomes a gamble worth tens of millions in earnings to say, ‘I will wait on the next opportunity and hope it’ll be there for me’.
I’ve seen people quote Ben Johnson as an example of a coach waiting for the right opportunity. Is that strictly true, though? When the Lions were eliminated from the playoffs after the 2023 season’s NFC Championship, he was seen as an option alongside Mike Macdonald for the jobs in Seattle and Washington.
Mike Garafolo and Albert Breer both reported that he didn’t interview well. Garafolo added that Johnson was not going to be Washington’s hire anyway, so he removed his name from consideration. Breer said he didn’t “knock his first interview out of the park” with the Commanders.
I’m not sure it was as much about Johnson waiting on a better job, as Johnson sensing he had no choice and attempted to save face.
The arguments to make for keeping Kubiak are less about turning down the Raiders or Cardinals and waiting for something better. It’s about the situation this week and the potential for the Seahawks to give him a big raise.
Breer noted today that Kubiak is “genuinely torn” over going through the process of doing interviews this weekend and that he feels he owes it to the Seahawks’ players and staff to put everything into the Super Bowl.
This is more important than anything. If he verbally agrees to take one of these jobs over the weekend, he might feel that could impact things in the days leading up to the Super Bowl. Some coaches will feel uncomfortable about that. If you’re hoping for Kubiak to stay, your best bet is to hope he wrestles with this so much that he just feels the timing is wrong and loyalty to his colleagues wins out.
That will be easier if he knows there’s a nice big pay rise waiting on his desk at the VMAC. No doubt that will have already been communicated to him. Tony Pauline noted recently that the Seahawks are making a “full-court press” to keep him in Seattle.
There’s your rooting interest. Loyalty, a raise and a desire to avoid distractions for the Super Bowl. Not the standard of the current available jobs.
The problem is, the Raiders job is probably more appealing than people realise.
Yes, it’s been a basket case for a long time. So were the Lions until recently. And the Bills. Things can change — and this season we’ve seen how quickly fortunes can change for teams (the Patriots were 4-13 last season).
They also play in a difficult AFC West division, with Patrick Mahomes, Jim Harbaugh and AFC Championship participants the Denver Broncos.
Let’s look at the Broncos. Between 2017 and 2023 they averaged six wins per season. In the last two seasons, they’ve won 24 regular season games. They could’ve been in the Super Bowl but for an injury to their quarterback and/or the bad weather last weekend.
The Raiders have a lot of work to do to build a roster like Denver’s but with the #1 pick this year and the chance to acquire more stock if (when) they trade Maxx Crosby, there’s an opportunity to shape their roster. Meanwhile, you’ll have a young quarterback, an elite tight end, a very good left tackle and a highly drafted running back already on deck. That’s a good start for an offensive-minded Head Coach.
They also have a projected $74.7m in effective cap space this year — second most in the NFL behind only the Titans. They’ll create even more if they trade Crosby and cut Geno Smith.
Rather than be a hindrance, I suspect the presence of Tom Brady will be seen as a positive and a sounding board for a coach like Kubiak. After all, his father won a Super Bowl in Denver when John Elway was the GM.
Plus the Kubiak family have connections to GM John Spytek, who was part of that same Broncos’ front office when Gary was the Head Coach.
Add all of this to the money they’re likely to offer, which could essentially be a blank cheque at this point. After all, who else are they going to go for and be able to sell it to their fans? Look on social media. Raider Nation sees this as Kubiak or bust.
If he does depart after the Super Bowl, it would be concerning for the Seahawks. There’s no point pretending it wouldn’t be a significant blow.
Firstly, he’d almost certainly take John Benton and Rick Dennison with him — with the prospect of others going too. You would need to find a replacement with coaching contacts, or find adequate staff replacements.
Secondly, there’s the prospect of scheme changes if you can’t find a coordinator from the same coaching tree. That isn’t a given and wouldn’t be ideal after so much success in 2025.
The Seahawks hit it out of the park last year when they had ample time to replace Ryan Grubb. They began their coordinator search as soon as the regular season ended, with multiple candidates available.
This time would be different. The coaching cycle has moved quickly and we are already starting to see how thin the offensive coordinator pool is (just ask Eagles fans). The last time they faced this kind of situation was when they had to wait for Mike Macdonald to become available after the 2023 season’s AFC Championship game. By that point, the pool of OC’s was similarly thin. They had to take a chance on Grubb and it was a disaster.
They likely learnt from that process and at the very least, they’re unlikely to look to the college ranks for a Kubiak replacement. However, they might be forced into a situation again where they’re rolling the dice. Kubiak was far more of a known quantity, with a ready made staff and a history of play-calling. They might have to take a chance on a novice with limited or no play-calling experience and very little in the way of contacts this time.
Last year they considered outside-of-the-box candidates like Hank Fraley and Grant Udinski.
They could look at their existing staff but the Eagles lost Kellen Moore after the Super Bowl last year and replaced him with an in-house candidate. It didn’t work.
There were other things at play, including the odd way Jalen Hurts operates and the weekly drama AJ Brown seems determined to bring to the table.
Even so, it highlights how challenging things can be when you win a Super Bowl and then have to scramble to appoint coaches. The Seahawks experienced that when they lost Dan Quinn and promoted Kris Richard in 2015. It also didn’t work (although, again, there were mitigating circumstances).
A suggestion might be to see if you can find an experienced, older head to run things without much commitment beyond 2026 — before assessing the situation in a year when you might be better placed to make a longer term appointment. A known quantity, even if it’s someone who doesn’t necessarily excite, might be better than risking a novice.
In addition to Fraley and Udinski, the Seahawks are known to have interviewed Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, Baltimore Ravens run game coordinator Travis Switzer, Byron Leftwich and Thomas Brown before appointing Kubiak a year ago. They could also be contenders. It’s unclear if Mike Kafka and Arthur Smith could also be in contention. They’ve recently taken jobs with the Lions and Ohio State but could be tempted by an offer to be a NFL offensive coordinator again for a team that won a lot of games in 2025.
I’m sure the Seahawks have been planning for all eventualities given the interest in Kubiak. Their desire to press him to stay, though, could reflect how unappealing the alternatives are.
It would be a huge boost if Kubiak were to stay but it’s not news I think anyone should anticipate. I think he’ll verbally agree to take the Raiders job. The hope has to be that his parting gift will be an exceptional game-plan for his final act as Seattle’s OC.
His exit would create a huge challenge for Mike Macdonald and John Schneider to find a suitable replacement. The aim has to be to make 2025 a launchpad for sustained contention and success, not a one-off.
If he opts to stay, it will be a major cause for celebration.
If you missed my review of day three at the Senior Bowl earlier, check it out here.
