A few people have asked about this and after a further tweet today, I thought I’d address it in a quick article…
Let’s say these guys are all gone at 9: the four pass rushers, Neal & Ickey, and Sauce & Stingley. Who would you take then? I fear the answer could be Penning or…gulp…Kyle Hamilton.
— Rational Fandom (@RationalFandom) March 27, 2022
The chances of this happening, in my opinion, are extremely remote. It would likely require the top two cornerbacks going very early — but I don’t see the Giants, for example, taking Derek Stingley over a pass rusher.
I actually think it’s more likely both Stingley and Sauce Gardner are there at #9. The Giants potentially trading James Bradbury pre-draft might change that. I’m going to publish a mock draft tomorrow that runs through a scenario that will flesh out why a ‘worst case scenario’ such as the one above isn’t very likely.
If it did happen, here’s what I think the options are…
Personally, I would consider pivoting to the Georgia duo of Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis. The Seahawks have added bodies to their defensive front but the key should be to add difference making talent. The pair have Geno Atkins and Haloti Ngata-level potential.
The only offensive tackle they’d probably consider is Trevor Penning. He has the size, mentality and explosive traits they like. I’ve written a few times why I’d rather not go in this direction (I don’t think he or Charles Cross are worth a top-10 pick) but it would be an option to them.
They could also trade down. I’ll run down a few potential targets in that scenario in a moment.
I do think, however, that some Seahawks fans at the moment are too eager to look for a looming crisis.
I understand why. I’ve been a vocal critic of Pete Carroll and John Schneider over the last two years and unquestionably they botched the reset from 2018-onwards.
However, I also think this situation suits them better. I don’t think they were ever comfortable building around an expensive franchise quarterback. Neither was Russell Wilson comfortable being forced to work within a structure he had little faith in.
It created a dynamic where the team was pulling in different directions — with three individuals having their own vision for the future and all three trying to keep things together.
Now, it’s a clean break. I think Carroll and Schneider are better builders than maintainers. The only evidence I have to back that up is what happened between 2010 and 2013 — but it’s a pretty good example.
I’m going to let this play out, enjoy the draft, not worry too much about what may or may not happen and just go with the flow. This next month, in anticipation of a crucial draft, might be the most fun you get out of the Seahawks in 2022 (well, unless they beat the Niners twice again).
There’s plenty of time to critique and judge what they decide to do. If they get this wrong, having traded Wilson away, you won’t need a draft blog to drum up critical analysis of the Seattle braintrust. They know they need to get this right.
For now, let’s talk about possibilities, not issues that aren’t here yet.
So who would they look at if they did move down?
I suppose you could extend this out to who they’ll look at if they acquire extra stock. It’s at least plausible, I suppose, Philadelphia might be a team that enters any D.K. Metcalf chatter if the Seahawks decide they don’t want to pay $22-25m for a receiver. That would mean an extra first in the late teens.
The names already mentioned above would be in the equation if they were still available.
I think the Seahawks would give strong consideration to someone like Zion Johnson. I thought his Senior Bowl performance was overrated but the simple fact is he ticks all the boxes for Seattle. He has great size and length (34 inch arms). He’s one of the most explosive testers in the last decade of the combine — scoring a 3.33 in TEF and 103.4 in weighted TEF. If they want quickness and agility in their new blocking scheme — he also ran a 4.46 short shuttle at 312lbs.
A player with Johnson’s profile gets drafted early. Don’t be surprised if he goes in the teens. I think New England at #21 will be his floor.
If the Seahawks find themselves picking in that range, they might decide to take a chance on his physical talent and upside. Then they could try him at guard or center.
It’s not a huge need but it’s a pick that fits based on their trends. They had a presence at Boston College’s pro-day and I think they’ll be extremely high on Johnson, possibly considering him one of the top prospects in the draft.
There are numerous pass rushers they could consider. I suspect two likely options would be Arnold Ebiketie and Sam Williams because they have the length and traits they covet. I am a huge Boye Mafe fan but he did measure with sub-33 inch arms. It’s a shame because there’s a lot to like with Mafe and he could remain on their radar.
Depending on how far they trade back, Abraham Lucas could be another possibility. I also think Trent McDuffie could have some appeal.
The more I think about it — if they ended up with a pick in the teens, I think Johnson and Mafe might be the two names to focus on (if arm length isn’t seen as an issue with Mafe).
It’s all a moot point though and a discussion we can return to if Metcalf is dealt. I think the options at #9 will be enticing. Either one of the pass rushers will last to #9 (Jermaine Johnson is the most likely) or they will be able to pivot to a great cornerback.
Check out my article yesterday on the cornerback position for more. What I would say is don’t underestimate Carroll’s interest in players who were once top recruits.
It’s something he’s made reference to many times. Even when they added Jacob Eason he spoke about how highly he was recruited. Talent is talent.
I can well imagine Carroll looking at a former #1 recruit in the country in Derek Stingley and thinking — ‘I want to help him achieve greatness’.
I think he’ll feel the same about Kayvon Thibodeaux for similar reasons.
I suspect the Seahawks are going to shoot for the stars with their top pick and if an opportunity falls to them — just as it did in 2010 with Earl Thomas — they won’t hesitate to make the call.
They didn’t trade down that year, when they were starting their build, because they knew what they’d be passing up at #6 and #14.
They added quality.
I think that will be the aim again this year.
And if you want to generate some buzz and excitement for your team in 2022 — the prospect of Derek Stingley Jr facing off against D.K. Metcalf in training camp is pure box-office.
A quick note to finish — PFN are reporting that Percy Butler will take an official-30 visit to Seattle. It’s the second confirmed official visit, along with Sauce Gardner.
Butler is a player I’ve mocked to the Seahawks in the later rounds. He’s a fearless special teams gunner. Keep him on your radar as an option. We know they put a lot of emphasis on special teams.
If you enjoy the content on Seahawks Draft Blog then please consider supporting us via Patreon (click the tab below)…
“I do think, however, that some Seahawks fans at the moment are too eager to look for a looming crisis.”
Seahawks fans? Seahawks Twitter? Eager to look for a looming crisis? We resemble that remark! Ha!
I do think the Hawks will have their choice of a high-end, hopefully difference maker type of player at edge or corner. I understand the arguments of NOT taking an OT that high but it sure would be nice if they addressed it sooner than later in the draft. Potentially having that position taken care of (Penning?) for many years would be awfully nice. Then grab some solid players on defense with the two 2nd round picks.
But this is the problem Sean.
Draft Penning at #10. Chances are you’ve not taken care of the position for many years. But you’ve squandered your first top-10 pick in over a decade on a player who ends up kicking inside. A top-10 James Carpenter, let’s say.
That makes sense. Maybe Penning isn’t the guy (I don’t know much about him) but with a current depth chart led by Stone Forsythe & Jake Curhan, it needs to be addressed. Signing Brown & Shell (or others) to one-year deals allows you to kick the can down the road a bit but a long-term solution needs to happen soon.
Agreed
I think a top 10 pick for an OT has to be rock solid with as few concerns as possible and I’m just not seeing that from Penning.
For example, some fans suggest trading for Mekhi Becton who went #11 to the Jets last year. At first, he looked like a monster LT the Jets could rely on for 10+ years, now the story looks very different as this site summarizes from an Athletic article:
“Some of Joe Douglas‘ top draft choices have fallen out of favor with the Jets. Not only has Mekhi Becton struggled with injuries and his weight, but Connor Hughes of The Athletic notes the Jets were close to benching the former first-round left tackle before his Week 1 injury last year. Becton reporting to the team’s offseason program and training camp in less-than-ideal shape irked the Jets, and the knee injury sustained cost him 16 games. The mammoth edge blocker showed promise when available as a rookie, but going into 2022, he appears behind George Fant to be Gang Green’s left tackle.”
-taken from https://www.profootballrumors.com/players/mekhi-becton
100% agree
Regardless of position I want a player with a great chance to be a cornerstone. I don’t want to draft a position just because.
Agree with both of you – an “average LT” at #9 is a great pick. An “average OG” at #9 is a horrendous pick. If they have any doubt about Penning at LT – they have to pass.
At this point, I’m fully on the Stingley bandwagon – he just screams difference making superstar who could be gifted to you. A potential difference maker at a critical position. If you can’t go pass rush, I think the pick *has* to be a CB.
I’m not sure an average tackle is a great top-10 pick to be honest
That’s fair – maybe I’d use the term “justifiable.” It wouldn’t feel like a wasted pick.
I still think it would be wasted Matt. The top-10 is a place to target greatness, not ‘meh, not bad’.
Since you mentioned DK, if we trade him, which I hope we don’t, do you think we have an option to replace him at 9? Or a later first round would suffice?
No, I think you use the incredible depth at receiver to your advantage and wait until day 2/3
What do you think of Drake London as a DK replacement? I know he’s unlikely to last until day 2.
Need to know how he tests
First off, if we did trade DK, regardless of what Pete is spitting out of his mouth, there would be no denying the Seahawks are definitely in rebuild mode.
If DK was traded, whether to GB, Philly or another team, there would be a great opportunity to take one of the top Wr’s in the draft (depending how things unfold and what picks we would gather from a trade.)
Having that extra ammunition would also give opportunity to load up on Defense which imo is more important than fixing an OL when we have such a question mark at QB and a question mark at RB (health of Carson, is Penny able to stay injury free.
Keep DK and build the Defense.
Agreed 100%. These guys can be known as the idiots who ran RW and Bobby Wagner out of town, maybe DK too, and drove the franchise into the ground for the next decade, or the guys who had the guts to make some very tough moves and rebuilt the team from the ground up – for a second time.
Everybody knows how high the stakes are.
Last year I wrote this:
Here’s hoping that focus will incline them to follow their instinct to just build with good players in 2022. Getting clever is for the 3rd round and beyond. Not the top 10.
It will be interesting to compare their draft approach from what they did to originally build the franchise combined with the things they learned along the way such as being more open to smaller CBs without ideal arm length and other things they’ve alluded to about attitude and mentality.
Agreed. Especially with the last two sentences. Only in the worst case scenario Rob describes would trading out of the top 10 this year make any sense. Make sure your top 10 pick has top 10 talent and potential, then pick him, period.
Partly true re: running RW out of town, though RW greased the skids too.
Age and an absolutely indigestible contract for a diminished LB ran Bobby Wagner out of town. The impersonal force of Time…
great work as usual Rob, what would you think if they took Corral at 9 if they Identify him as the QB of the future
I would think, ‘that was a weird dream’ and then go about my day
🤣👌
If that worst case scenario presents itself i’ve got a feeling they’ll go for Davis. John might see him as a safer pick than Wyatt though I would be equally fine with either of them. Stingley or Gardner would be preferable to the 2 DT’s and it does seem likely at least 1 of the 2 will be there at #9. If we trade back and pick a QB in the teens or early 20’s i’m hoping PCJS take Pickett. He has his flaws but he’s got some good upside. He can really sling it despite his small hands. They’ll probably pick Corral but I could see Pickett being the Mac Jones of the bunch, the most pro-ready.
I don’t see QB being an option
Thank you!!!!!
In the heyday of the Hawks-49ers rivalry both teams had fierce defenses. For Seattle, on an incredibly stacked unit it was Kam who struck fear into opposing players. For SF, “The Cowboy” (DE Justin Smith) always seemed like the heart of that defense, constantly harassing our OL & opening things up for everyone behind him.
Now that we’re switching to the 3-4 alignment, who is the best Cowboy impersonator in this draft?
Don’t forget about NoVarro Bowman. There was a man among men: 4x All Pro and a tackling machine who wreaked havoc. One those guys that every time I saw him play I’d think “Do I ever wish he were a Seahawk!”
The Cowboy and Bowman were the leaders on the D. But I don’t think it would quite as well for Justin Smith without Aldon Smith screaming off the other edge for those few years before it all fell apart for him. Aldon was a great young pass rusher.
You can game plan one DE to limit damage, you got Taylor on one side and a Jermaine Johnson on the other and now you are cooking. Gross oversimplification, but pass rush makes so many other parts of the defence come together. CBs can be way more aggressive when you ask them to win for 2-3 seconds. Jamal Adams as an occasional pass rush will be deadly if the offence can’t key on him as the only threat like they were able to all of last year.
I always hate to admit it, but aside from Harbaugh and Crabtree a lot of the 2013 SF team were tough for me to hate on back then.
Rob,
To your point about Pete looking for guys that were highly regarded/recruited coming INTO college, like Jacob Eason. Did LJ Collier fit that profile too, when he was drafted?
No
Thank for addressing this topic Rob.
How do you feel about Ekwonu at #9? I just don’t see the Top 5 hype there. If we’re playing the long game, could be a nice LG in 2023 with agave Jackson off the books.
I think he’s a guard. Not sold on the hype either but getting a very strong feeling he won’t get by the teams at #5 and #6
What if the Giants take Neal and then the Panthers trade down with someone for a different position?
Wouldn’t be my pick, but I can see the Pete liking the idea.
Everything I’ve heard and read suggests there’s no chance of Ekwonu falling.
I agree with you on both points. I just find myself delving in the realms of unlikely hypotheticals. He’s a prospect to me with great upside. I suppose Jets or Giants would struggle to pass him up, but he still needs development so could slide for that reason.
Rob, content and blog top quality as always, Youve stated for a long time the QB’s in the draft are average at best and saying Seattle should wait until 2023 to take a chance on a Draft QB, with Will Levis the guy you personally like most, but who’s to say other franchises feel the same way about him and come next year draft, they get him before Seattle have a chance, then what, should Seattle stilll take a chance on say Jack Coan or Caleb ealeby later in the draft this year.
Personally my 1st choose draft pick has to be Stingly or J.Johnson if he is still available, adding quality to what Seattle already has has to be the way for, not just average guys, for too long Seattle don’t get after the opposing QB enough and their defence when RW was hear was average at best, has to wait improve!
Well there’s also Bryce Young and a lot of others like CJ Stroud. And others can emerge.
Plus they have the stock to trade up.
I was thinking the same, perhaps between the two Evan Neal and Ikey Ekwonu, Ekwonu might fall to #9? Not least because perhaps teams might not be so confident on him translating to an NFL tackle and think drafting a guard in the top 5 a little high?
I would be surprised if Seattle took him in this scenario, but I wouldn’t hate it. Would set up for a great running game, if the team could sort out the Center position later in the draft?
It’s not THAT unusual for a pure guard to go top five.
Scherff and Nelson are the only ones I can think in recent memory, they went 5 and 6. I thought them better prospects coming out than Ekwonu or even Neal for that matter, but I guess that says more about the overall top end talent this year.
Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper both went top-10 in 2013
Rob, Posting for the first time and wanted to thank you for the insightful content. This post-Wilson era is very exciting due in large part to your vision of what is now possible. Worst case for me would be for Jermaine Johnson to be available for us at 9 and not take him. Maybe they trade down for more picks, or take or Penning or Cross instead. Or there is always the Hawks penchant to take under the radar players early. I think that’s more likely at 40 or 41. With such strong draft capital, I’m actually much more optimistic that the Hawks will come away with strong picks — quality talent with a few minor surprises peppered in.
Thanks for reading
Travon Walker is a bit of a head scratcher for me. I get it, his testing was off the charts, but his stats in 2021 was nothing spectacular. 6 sacks, 7 tfl. Where does he play, is he a pure 4-3 defensive end?
If the other three more highly productive Edge Rushers are gone, but he’s there at #9, is picking him a no brainer, or a bit of a risk?
Tape Walker vs Combine Walker has definitely been a topic here. I think he’s best suited as a 3-4 end, but need some skill refinement to be a better pass rusher. What he lacks in specialty he has in versatility. Unfortunately, my personal opinion is that he has as much potential to be great as he does to be average.
In fairness Georgia moved him all over the place and nobody had massive stats up front. They had Walker drop into space a fair bit too.
Walker will go top-five for sure.
recently, some really good SEC dline prospects didn’t racked up HUGE sack numbers in college. Danielle Hunter, Chris Jones come to mind. If I was a jaguars fan, I would be enthusiastic about drafting Walker.
Haven’t done a close analysis of him, but from the highlights I’ve seen it seems they used him fairly often as a “regular” outside LB rather than a pure edge rusher. That might’ve limited his sack potential.
Just listened to a bit of John Schneider’s discussion on Wyman and Bob a few days ago regarding DK and recent WR transactions.
His comments indicate that he recognizes that the market for WRs right now is ‘shocking’ (both trade and cost for contract extensions), and sure sounded like he might be very open to a trade if they get the right offer.
Looking at the news today – Philly, NYJ, GB actively engaged in WR market – I’m think there is a real chance Schneider deals him.
I saw Rich Cimini at ESPN report the Jets are keeping tabs on Metcalf, AJ Brown and Deebo’s situations. Can you post links for Philly and GB?
There was a rumor that Jet was offering #35, #38 and 3rd round pick swap for Hill. Should Seahawks do it if #35 and #38 are the base? Are we able to get a good receiver to replace DK?
https://www.fieldgulls.com/platform/amp/2022/3/26/22996698/the-wide-receiver-market-is-insane-right-now-should-the-seattle-seahawks-try-to-capitalize-on-that
Before the Hill trade I’d already said I thought #35 and #38 would be a great return for DK. And I really like DK.
So I would consider it, sure.
It would probably guarantee you your pick of the linebackers. There’s a bit of a risk a run starts before #40/41. Trading back into the first from #35 would be easy if you wanted to do that.
I think one of Philly’s firsts combined with a third would also be attractive.
Jets offered 35, 38, & 69 to KC for Hill & #103 = 1227 points
So they could offer almost the exact same deal for Metcalf.
Jets offer 35, 38, & 69 for Metcalf & #109 = 1239 points
The Philly and GB links weren’t anything new or specifically linked with the Seahawks. Just with trades and higher-profile free agents at WR.
The Eagles apparently had a deal lined up for Calvin Ridley before he was suspended, and put in a competitive bid for Robert Woods (with the decision coming down to Woods opting for Tennessee over Philly). They also pursued Allen Robinson before he signed with the Rams. The take-away: the Eagles have been actively looking to get better at WR, but keep getting passed over by players when they have a say in the matter.
https://www.profootballrumors.com/2022/03/eagles-made-competitive-offer-for-s-marcus-williams-latest-on-wr-qb-pursuits
The Green Bay news focused on their attempts to resign Marquez Valdes-Scantling before he signed with KC. The report also linked Green Bay with Will Fuller and Odell Beckham. It also mentioned the Saints interest in Jarvis Landry. Neither team was linked to trades specifically, but are nonetheless involved in the WR market.
https://www.profootballrumors.com/2022/03/packers-made-late-push-for-marquez-valdes-scantling
If they did acquire a pick in the teens from Philly for DK — I think there’s a strong chance Zion Johnson and Boye Mafe would be on their radar (if they go corner at 9). Provided they can get beyond the arm length issue with Mafe.
Are the teens too early for Ebikitie? Similar explosive testing, plus 34″ arms and a 6.95 3 cone from his pro day.
It’s a little rich for me but I suspect he’ll come off the board 20-35.
Upside through the roof with Mafe for sure.
I still think they keep DK as long as he wants to be here.
If we draft, either Wyatt or Davis, could we save any cap space cutting Poona? Rob, I know you’re a Poona Ford supporter but I’ve always thought he was a bit overrated, and now, I think he’s a bit overpaid.
Poona consistently grades as Seattle’s best defender
Why would you cut him to try and replace his grading with a top-10 pick. That would be madness
Poona is in the final year of his contract and is a very affordable $10.075 million cap hit. A good price for his level of production.
They would need to trade him to garner significant cap space, and they wouldn’t get much in return for that trade.
As Rob stated, it makes no sense to trade your most productive defensive player to clear cap space for a question mark at that position.
Sure, you could then draft someone, but they aren’t a guaranteed starter, like Poona, and you just used a good draft pick to fill a role that was already admirably filled by Poona.
Go back and look at his numbers. He played a lot of snaps and was rock solid member of a badly coached unit.
Trading Poona for a mid/late round draft pick would be nice, as it also gives an extra $8.3M of cap room that they could rollover to when they’re actually legit contenders.
Carroll wouldn’t do this though because he wants to win just enough games so they can’t get Stroud and Young next year.
1. Will Levis is better than those two anyway
2. They have the stock to trade up if needed
3. I still don’t know why people want to get rid of the one defensive player who’s played with any consistency
Poona is one of Hurtt’s favorite players as well.
Poona is 26 years old. They don’t have enough good young players. They should be extending Poona with the heaps of future money they have, not cutting him to save $8.3M this year. If Poona gets too old before they become legit contenders than the rebuild failed.
Brilliant as usual Rob. One thing i keep coming back to is something that you brought up a couple times, really as an overriding thought, and that is that P&J have developed a plan of what they wanted to do if they traded Russ. Now that it is done, i believe that is exactly right. WHile we may scratch our heads on this or that, or blast them for some of their moves, we can’t forget that they formed and EXECUTED a brilliant plan that got them to the Super Bowl twice. Of course they like Russ coming out of the draft, but obviously he soared higher than any could have imagined.
I think that history can repeat itself, and believe a well thought out plan is also coming together with them. Certianly it was clear they were going to let Bobby go. THe DK opportunity is probably under debate now, as they probably planned for him to be one of the new cornerstones of the team.
I am a planner myself, and while we all are hyper focused on FA and the draft for 2022, i believe that the FO Plan is one that involves, not just 2022, but also 2023 and probably another year out from that. SO ….longer term than just 2022. I think they KNOW what you have said about the QB talent this year. I think they may want to give Lock a hard look. I finally had a look at his early Denver film, and was pretty impressed for a Rook. Maybe they see their guy in 2023, and if so, they won’t even bother with any more FA QB’s or this year HIGH draft picks for a QB. Of course they will do they can to keep diversions in place! All this to say that this FO HAS done this before, and i think it is very possible for them to do it again, but judging it after 2023 and not just 2022. I think they also have the advantage of knowing what worked and what didn’t during the last rebuild. Just love this blog Rob, and i concur that i would hire you as a VP of sane and intelligent drafting for the Hawks!
Is the reason you don’t want Kyle Hamilton as pick 9 is because we enough safeties or he is not a good enough prospect?
Well, we definitely don’t need another safety do we? I mean why would they do that? That’s the last position you use the pick on. They’re literally paying $30m for two safety’s per year. You don’t then chuck a top-10 pick at that. I would’ve thought that’s just stating the obvious.
I very much doubt they are considering a S. I suspect some of this is posturing to hide their true intentions.
I don’t think they’ve said they’re interested in a safety Bruce
Not hamilton but I wouldn’t be surprised if they take safety earlier then I’d like. Teo reasons. One pete csn’t say no. Two. Actual reality. Bungling contracts still should include the reality of a near 30 year old player post injury and a twice injured player.
Would I want them to do this? Not really. Should the team be thinking about a life post Adams/if and when he gets injured again? Probably.
Well they love Ryan Neal and Marquise Blair
They’re not taking a safety early
They’ve had Percy Butler – a Safety, in the building for a Top 30 visit. In what sort of range would he offer value?
I’d love for this to be right. Until i see one solid draft I am not putting anything past these guys.
Carboard cutouts. Check. 10-11 draft picks spent on safety in five years. Check. Reports that a freaking first round TE was possibly on their radar the year Collier got drafted. Check.
Rob obviously bad ass edge rusher, lights out corner should be the target.
Even the hamilton *as* smokescreen or whatever is a preposterous waste of limited visits. Are they hoping he falls to the fourth? Want to pick his brain about another player on his team? Or pete just wants to wax philosophical with another brother in arms as a grizzled defensive back?
Well we saw them take Jordyn Brooks when we were loaded at LB, both talent-wise and money-wise. However, in retrospect that looks more and more like the precursor to Bobby being let go.
So, if they do go with a safety high in the draft, that probably tips their hand that they could be moving on from Adams. Al a cutting losses like they did by cutting Bobby.
However, I just don’t see it… Bobby was getting long in the tooth, Adams is still young. Plus, look at the position the Browns are in with terrible bargaining position with Baker Mayfield. If you draft a safety high with the intent of trading Adams.. you’re shooting yourself in the foot.
Not to mention there are just so many holes on this roster throughout. If you want to trade Adams, do it before/during the draft and take a flier on a late round guy and fill your other roster holes.
None of this I disagree with. I’m not even hypothesizing that they go safety. In fact i would hate it.
Roundly I’m just not putting anything past these two until I see it. We can say what they wouldn’t do until we’re blue in the face.
Rob has made tons of great content giving us tons to think about. I’m just down on them making good choices since it’s been a while since they could do it with consistency.
Rob,
Excellent piece.
Looking ahead to 2023, we’ll have substantial cap space. Should we trade DK, we’ll have substantial cap space and substantial draft capital.
Is it too early to look at potential FA targets for next year?
It is, just because many of the top players won’t reach the market
Worst case scenario is a reality with Allen, Carroll and Schneider all staying together.
I hope the three blind mice are, in fact, better builders than maintainers. We need for it to be, badly.
I’ve got no problem with Penning if he becomes a good 10 year starter. Seems like a dirtbag who wants to kill people from the OL. I’ve had enough of marshmallows like Pocic, Fuller, Shell, Sowell, Nowak, Finney… Doubt they go with Penning but certainly won’t be mad or criticize if they do. Maybe getting a LT isn’t a bad idea before you have your QB because nothing is going to matter this season anyways.
Penning to me is someone who just tries to start stuff with everyone
A distinct difference between that and being an actual tough guy
Jordyn Brooks was drafted largely because his coach at Texas Tech was the position coach at Utah State when Bobby Wagner was there. One of the big reasons Damien Lewis was selected early was because Pete’s old protege’, Ed Orgeron, was his coach and several Ed Orgeron assistants have come from Pete. In 2010, the Seahawks’ secondary coach was Jerry Gray, whose alma mater was the University of Texas, and that was the year they selected Earl Thomas.
Now do the Seahawks like to go with players from familiar coaches in college, so do they go with Stingley because of Ed Orgeron (he did recruit him to LSU) and Karl Scott (who was his position coach at LSU), or wait in the mid rounds for one of Josh Jobe or Jalyn Armour-Davis that were coached by Karl Scott more recently?
Karl Scott, to my knowledge, hasn’t coached at LSU
interesting point, Harvey. I was thinking similarly about ‘Coach O’ and Stingley Jr. I also wouldn’t rule out Scott’s connections to Alabama potentially having an influence.
I will be happy if the Hawks extend Dk and make him a core player to build around. I would be equally happy if they trade him for multiple early picks this year and next year.
The only bad move for PC/JS would be to do neither. DK absolutely has to be signed or traded before the draft IMO.
The good news is that DK is doing (aside from his sugar intake) and saying the right things to assuage the fan base. He is embracing the fact that he is the last superstar on the team.
The bad news is that we have to sit and wait for news on a contract/trade as the days roll on until the draft.
It was much easier before when you knew they were picking in the 20’s, were trading down, and would botch that first pick, anyway.
“I don’t think they were ever comfortable building around an expensive franchise quarterback. …. I think Carroll and Schneider are better builders than maintainers. The only evidence I have to back that up is what happened between 2010 and 2013 — but it’s a pretty good example.”
I think you’re basically right, and am generally hopeful about the rebuild, but have lingering doubts about the nuances. Specifically, Carroll was pretty good as both a builder and a maintainer while at USC. So, why has he been unable to do the same with the Seahawks?
I don’t think it was so much being uncomfortable with ‘building around an expensive franchise quarterback’ as a failure to adapt his approach to the realities of continually motivating individuals in the NFL. PC’s ‘always compete’ philosophy works great as motivation in college ball. At the college level you’ve got a constant flow of athletes through the system as athletes graduate, go on to the NFL or whatever. This naturally breeds competition. In the NFL you need to make decisions about who to keep and who to let go.
Keeping people beyond the first contract often involves big bucks, relating to a second difference that affects the player’s motivation. In college there is an institutionalized reward system that is external to the college game — do well and you will move on to the NFL. That is a big carrot that is held out in front of them. In the NFL the big carrot is the second / later contracts and the $$$$ associated with them. Some individuals (Michael Jordan is an extreme case) are exceptionally competitive by nature and getting the big $$$$ doesn’t really affect their motivation. But in many cases, the risk /reward of time and energy put in, multiple injuries, or whatever changes once you’ve got the big contract of guaranteed dollars. So, the carrot gets smaller. You can’t ‘rah rah’ them with motivational speeches like you can in college.
In short, I think PC has embraced the rebuild. But some of the specifics of how he is implementing it (e.g., the Dissly contract) make me wonder if he has figured out the best ways to reconcile ‘always compete’ with the more complex motivation / reward structure of the NFL game. . .
Would Thibodeaux or J. Johnson play OLB in a 3-4 defense?
Yes
I saw a mock draft that had Matt Corral going #2 overall and Malik Willis going #4 overall. Really! Scot McCloughan said the QBs in this draft are third QBs. Well hope the teams take these QBs at 2 & 4(never happen in a million years). That just makes it easier for JS/PC get the player they want.
I’m not so sure…
1) there are a number of hapless franchises, who might fall in love with a QB.
2) we have to go back almost a decade to find a draft where a QB wasn’t taken in the top ten. (2013.)
Going from memory: In the last ~25 years, there have only been 3 drafts where there was only one QB taken.,
I know this QB draft class isn’t rated terribly highly but on athletic ability alone Willis has got to appeal to one of the dumb ‘n desperate GMs, no?
Correction added: in the last circa 25 years, there have only been 3 drafts where there was only on QB taken in the 1st round.
Just read that the Broncos basically are going to let Russell Wilson call the plays. I say good. In order for Russell Wilson to be successful Wilson needs a running game. If the Broncos can’t run the football. It is going to be tough for Wilson. If you don’t believe me. Remember the home loss to the Giants in 2020. The Giants were able to stuff the run and play two deep safetys. Russell Wilson couldn’t do anything. When the defense doesn’t have to worry about stopping the run. Russell tends to struggle. Especially when the weather is less than ideal. Everyone knows what the weather is like in Denver during the months of Nov. Dec. and January.
The real issue is that Russ always wants to use the smoker and slow-cooker, and doesn’t want to admit that sometimes a microwave or broiler is needed. And he wants to feed people his choices despite guest preferences or dietary needs.
I like the way you phrased that quite a bit.
Though I think the issue is probably more the coach and qb strangely working in harmony with unbalanced football and one guy refusing to build a balanced team while the other guy relied to hard on his ability often enough to bail the team out.
@Purpleneer, now I’m just hungry lol
I don’t think Russ calling plays is his strength. His preparation is legendary but I wouldn’t say his on-field awareness of diagnosing a defense pre and post snap is at the same level. Plus, as a QB you need to make the right decision and throw based on your read of the defense. I love RW, don’t get me wrong, but his strength was always back-yard football making the magic happen. Rarely did I see him consistently throwing players open, throwing to a spot, or fitting it into a tight window over the middle (again, saw it just not consistently).
Perfect example, I believe all those bomb shots on 3rd and 4 were on Russ. He always wanted the big play. Also, think about the NFC Championship game where it seemed like he targeted Jermaine Kearse on every throw and ended up throwing a bunch of pics.. yet he was able to find him on the last play for the win.. lots of attempts at the home run and sometimes you live and die by that.
I always hoped he would get paired up with a Hackett type coach and work within the system of the offense using his preparation, magic and determination again within that system. If you expect him to be a Payton Manning calling plays from under center, that’s just not who he is and I don’t expect success from that.
Rob, have you seen any patterns over the years suggesting that PC/JS place less value than others on a player’s production during their last season in college? I’m thinking of recent examples like Jordyn Brooks and Colby Parkinson who seem like they were drafted based on their junior and sophomore tape, respectively.
Nothing stands out to be honest
Also, get him back in the booth when he’s ready!
Hoping 1 premier pass rusher or CB is there at 9.
Rather draft a DT like Wyatt or even Davis at 9+ than draft an OT in the 2nd.
Feels like the dropoff at DT is much bigger and OT feels much deeper with less dropoff between Penning, Lucas, Walker, Eve, etc.
What about trading up? PCJS ideally considers this as well given there are few opportunities to draft a pass rusher this high.
I think they’ve addressed DT already. There’s too much depth up front to imagine they are drafting for that position.
There may be depth, but a lack of talent and short term contracts does not bode well for this team next year. The same can be said for the CB position We will be revisiting those positions season if we do not ad some talent in this draft.
Next season. opps
Agree here. Just because they’ve signed guys shouldn’t stop them from taking a difference maker at the position.
I’d rather go other positions but i worry they are going need with their picks. When you should go BPA when your roster is as mediocre as this one.
Hey Rob,
First off, you’ve outdone yourself again this year with the draft content. Amazing work! Absolutely love that your stuff is available on apple/spotify.
My question:
I think from 12 years of watching PCJS we can conclude that they take a contrarian, unconventional approach to the draft and consensus big boards etc are kind of irrelevant in projecting who the Seahawks like. Now I know you might disagree with this and say that picking at 9 is different to picking in the 20s and they were somewhat conventional when they drafted Okung and Thomas.
That said, what are some names we should keep an eye on as potential surprise picks. Guys who are consensus 2nd round or later picks who the Seahawks could potentially take at 9? (excluding the QBs)
This roster is currently being roundly viewed as one of if not the worst roster in the entire nfl by many pundits. Grain of salt aside and let’s be generous and say that view is hyperbolic. If pc/js start with the reaching at nine I hope to whatever they are soon bounced out of the vmac.
The “unconventional,” picks are what cost them the ability to build anything resembling a contender with a franchise qb while our division rivals have been to three superbowls in five years.
I don’t think there’s any need to do that Dave to be honest.
They’re not going to draft some out-there guy at #9. I think we’ve covered there likely options in the top-10 well and who they’d go for later on.
Do you have an idea on when the next time we will see your updated horizontal big board?
This week
One of the sticking points for the team and Russell Wilson, as I understand it, was the relationship between JS and Wilson’s agent.
How much of a factor is it for the team to look at who the player has for an agent? Animosity between team and agent can be problematic, it seems. Would that affect a choice between seemingly equal players?
There’s probably some truth to that. However, agents know that it can be a delicate relationship. They fight zealously for their clients. But if teams start honestly viewing players represented by that agent as hands-off, that’s a quick way for the agent to get fired.
There’s been plenty of times an agent and GM have had a tough negotiation. Holdout, veiled threats in the press, the whole nine yards. It gets resolved, and then the team moves on to another player rep’d by the same agent and the negotiations are smooth like butter and all smiles.
Mark Rodgers is the exception. He apparently has no interest in adding NFL clients, so with one client he is free to be as zealous as he likes. But let’s not kid ourselves, he likely was picked by Wilson for just that reason, and he takes his marching orders from Wilson.
Who would possibly think this is funny?
https://twitter.com/gmfb/status/1508464176498323459
The cringe is strong with this one.
gmfb has lost there way a long time ago. haven’t watched them in months
That was pretty bad.
Terrible, absolutely terrible.
Ehh I must have a different sense of humor than y’all, the sketch wasn’t wasn’t horrible.
I also cut NFL content creators a lot of slack this time of year. With no actual news happening, there is not a lot to talk about…. I bet even this community would get sick of “30 straight days of mock drafts”
I stopped right when they mentioned Lynch. Hate this guys.. they didn’t like when we drafted Russ or when we traded. When they will learn?
Brady Henderson: An interesting Seahawks tidbit I heard last week and again today: another reunion with Carlos Dunlap isn’t out of the question. He’s not an ideal fit in their new 3-4 front, but they could make it work if the price is right once Dunlap tests his market. Nothing imminent there.
https://twitter.com/BradyHenderson/status/1508474162452606986?s=20&t=YPIWtD6hYtE2IKiADjmEYg
First reply: “Why can’t they sign Bobby Wagner back for $10m he’s the best ever!”
Jesus wept
Oh man! Some people will never learn!
But he’s good! At least that is what I’ve been spoonfed by the local press for years…
Just ask Pete…oh, wait…
Rob,
You mentioned that the Seahawks didn’t trade down when they had #6 and #14 and took Earl Thomas. I still can’t shake the feeling from previous drafts that a trade down in the first is at least possible.
Noting that it all depends on who is available and what they would get in return, how far back do you feel is too far to still take proper advantage of a high pick and this draft class?
Thanks a ton for all the great reading material and podcasts! This has been an incredible offseason of material.
You’re a saint or cyborg, Rob. Just saw on the YouTube a new 2 round mock draft for today at 2pm PST. How you keep pumping out entertaining, in depth articles and media amazes me. I honestly didn’t think the blog could get better (b/c it’s already really good), but you’re raising the bar once again. Looking forward to the mock. 🍻
If you’re going the CB projection at #9, I’m looking forward to hearing your thoughts on Gardner versus Stingley. They both look great. Sauce is super sticky in coverage and an ok tackler. Stingley, also a knack for keeping in people’s pockets, probably better overall awareness, and definitely a more aggressive sure tackler imo. But boy, it would be tough for me to pass on Sauce with those vines for arms, if given the choice, even if he does look far too lean for an NFL body.
Hey Rob, I hope we don’t take an OT at 9. An option in the 2nd round could be Rasheed Walker from Penn State. Do you have any thoughts if the Seahawks would be interested?
Need to see him test really
I let the PNF Sim go on its own and select for everyone:
It traded #9,40, and 41 to the Jets for #4 with the Hawks taking M Willis (QB) so figuring that can’t ever happen? I tried the Sim again this time
Traded #9 to the Saints for #18, 37, and a 2023 2nd round pick:
Hawks taking taking:
#18 D lloyd (LB
37 S Howell (Qb
41 T Smith (OT
49 K Walker (Rb ( another trade)
92 Z Carter (Dt
132 B Zappe (Qb
I really hope this type of draft does not happen
Did notice they dramatically raised J Johnson up from #23 – he went #4 to the Jets in this draft version
I also noticed they changed a lot of there ranking for example Leo Chanel is much higher rated but still a lot of the rankings are way out to lunch in my opinion
Curious:
How much of a drop off would there be from the tier 1 EDGE players (JJ, Walker, Hutchinson, KT) to the Tier 1 CB’s (Shipley, Gardner, and McDuffie)? I wonder if the value in drafting CB’s first if they believe the drop off from the top edge rushers is much less due to the depth of EDGE players we’re seeing in this year’s draft.
I’m would absolutely draft and EDGE first if one of the above EDGE players were there, but the Seahawks have mentioned this several times in past drafts that they believe in drafting the positions with less depth first. if they believe they can draft someone who is almost as good as the top players at the EDGE position, they maybe go after them in the second round instead (Williams, Bonito, and possibly Mafe).
Does anyone else think that might happen?
Quick cap look
Current cap $15.92million
Draft picks will take $6.522 million per OTC (assuming they don’t trade down or around)
They will pick up $5.1million of cap room June 1 on the Dunlap cut
That nets to about $14.5million spendable room
They can add about $4.6m if they cut Carson after June 1
They can add about $2.5m if they cut Ugo Amadi
They can add about $1.25m if they negotiate Phil Haynes’ RFA tender in half before cutdown day
They can add about $4m if they cut Jason Myers (I don’t think they will though)
After that they could probably add another $3-4m with a Poona extension if they want.
Extend Poona
Cut Amadi
Get the freakin’ tackle position sorted
And in addition, don’t cut Myers unless you have a solid plan in place to replace him. The only person that has offered that in our comments section is Trevor, by spending our 7th round on a kicker (can’t remember which one, but it is still a crap-shoot).
Good piece Rob. I appreciate the idea of taking Stingley and was blown away by his freshman season at LSU, specifically with how advanced his ball skills were. I just question if Pete is going to be willing to take a corner that high…seems like every draft season we talk about Seattle taking a corner early, only for them to wait until late day 2 or day 3 and take developmental guys they believe can be molded into quality NFL players.
Well, really there’s only been one draft where we’ve talked about them taking a corner early. And that was in 2018 because they were linked with one heavily the week of the draft. In the prior five months of coverage we’d focused almost exclusively on them taking a RB first — which they did. I was led by a report and it was an error.
My thought on it has generally been they wouldn’t take one early unless they were in position to get a spectacular player early of a Patrick Peterson type level. That’s where I think they’re at now.
Plus in the past they weren’t taking on 3-4 concepts. So let’s remember that too. Because as Jim Leavitt told us, it places a lot of pressure on the CB’s to stick in coverage.
Reports are that Pocic is signing with the Browns. I sure hope that Blythe can stay healthy. And please, no more Kyle Fuller. Does this increase the likelihood of picking a center in the draft?