An attempt at a reality check on the Jamal Adams trade

Jamal Adams is a good player but we have to keep asking questions about this deal

A lot of arguments have been made to justify the massive investment Seattle made in Jamal Adams. A lot have gone unchallenged, mainly because on face value they seem valid. So I wanted to play devils advocate for a few of the points being discussed.

You tell me if any of this is unfair…

“It’s just like trading up in the draft. The Seahawks haven’t picked in the top-10 since 2010. This is just like they traded up from the 20’s…”

This is not strictly true. When you trade up in the draft, you are only trading one future pick. This means, you know the position you are trading from.

For example — in 2011 the Falcons traded from #27 up to #6 to select Julio Jones. Although they were including their 2012 first rounder, they knew the definitive value of one of the two high picks they were dealing (#27).

The Seahawks don’t have this luxury. They have traded two future picks, with an undetermined value. Had they made this move prior to the 2020 draft, they would’ve known they were dealing #27 plus their 2021 first rounder. Instead there’s a higher degree of unknown.

It’s assumed the Seahawks will be picking at the end of the first round for the next two seasons. However, it only takes one slice of misfortune for things to dramatically change.

The 2011 Indianapolis Colts approached the season expecting to be contenders. They were a playoff team in 2010 — losing surprisingly to the New York Jets in the wildcard round (17-16).

An injury to Peyton Manning changed everything. The rest of the roster wasn’t good enough to manage the loss of their star player. The backups — Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter — were incapable of replacing Manning. The season collapsed and they ultimately ended up picking first overall in 2012.

Hopefully such a dramatic set of circumstances won’t happen to the Seahawks. Yet like the Colts — if anything happens to Wilson during the 2020 or 2021 seasons, there’s every chance they will implode. We’re only three years removed from a loaded Seahawks roster struggling to 9-7 due to an injury crisis, including knee and ankle injuries to Wilson. They picked in the teens the following year.

You could argue this is an extreme counter. Admittedly a team isn’t going to avoid making a trade through fear of a worse case scenario.

The point is though, simply, that this isn’t the same as trading up in the draft. The Seahawks will need to avoid injury issues for the next two years — not just one season — to avoid this trade biting them badly on the backside. The roster isn’t good enough to suffer an injury to Wilson or a handful of players — as we saw at the end of last season.

“The Seahawks never use their first round picks properly anyway, so who cares if they’ve given away their next two?”

Certainly you can question Seattle’s record with their ‘first’ pick — let alone their first round picks. They’ve had hits with Russell Okung, Earl Thomas and Bruce Irvin — but all were top-15 picks. They’ve struggled to find anything more than role players since. In 11 drafts, so far they are yet to extend their first player selected to a second contract, which is incredible.

However, this is a much deeper talking point than mere past history.

A first round pick is your greatest asset. It’s your best bargaining chip. It can end up being extremely valuable if you pick early. It can also be used to trade down and create more draft stock.

Why is that important?

Duane Brown turns 35 on August 30th. It’s unclear how many more years he intends to play but currently his contract runs until the end of the 2021 season. Last year he gallantly played through injuries in order to stay on the field.

Realistically the Seahawks are going to need to find a long term solution at the position — either in the draft or via trade.

The problem is, there’s a league-wide dearth of good left tackles.

Certainly it’s unlikely any are going to reach free agency. The only two proven left tackles to reach the market in recent history were Andrew Whitworth and he was pushing 40 plus Russell Okung (who had a strange situation given his injury history and lack of an agent).

It’s not impossible to add a good tackle without using a first round pick — as the trade for Brown and recent move by the 49ers to acquire Trent Williams show. These are rare cases though. The main way you gain a good left tackle is usually with a high draft pick or via an expensive trade.

It’s hard to imagine how the Seahawks will sufficiently address this situation before 2023 — the next time they’ll have a first round pick. Prior to Brown’s arrival, they had to start Bradley Sowell, George Fant and Rees Odhiambo. That’s not the way to protect Russell Wilson and was partly the reason he got injured in 2017.

Of course this would be easier to understand had they spent a high pick on a left tackle over the last two drafts — but they opted not to. Are they hoping to try and develop Cedric Ogbuehi? How many projects like that have actually worked out?

Trading away future first round picks makes it difficult to address that position for the next two years.

“He will add lots of sacks to make up for the below-par D-line”

It’s often pointed out that Adams had 6.5 sacks in 2019 — more than any of Seattle’s defensive linemen.

However, it’s important to remember who he played for in New York. First he had ultra-blitzing Todd Bowles. Then it was the even more aggressive Gregg Williams.

Williams embarrassingly calls himself ‘Doctor Blitz’. Adams blitzed 90 times during the 2019 season, ninth most in the entire NFL at any position. Baltimore’s Chuck Clark, in a similar scheme, was the only safety who blitzed at a similar rate.

In comparison, Bradley McDougald blitzed 21 times in Seattle last year. Even Bobby Wagner only blitzed 71 times.

In Seattle’s scheme, Earl Thomas recorded the grand total of zero sacks and Kam Chancellor had two. McDougald had 0.5 sacks in his Seahawks career. Different scheme, very different responsibilities and production.

“They can be really creative now and find a way to get Adams involved in different ways”

We’ve all had this discussion by now. Adams is going to blitz, pressure, destroy crossing routes, take out George Kittle, play single-high, take a linebacker off the field and presumably also achieve world peace.

Let’s remember the scheme in Seattle. This is a defense that played predominantly in ‘base’ last year. It’s a defense that has pretty much stayed the same for over a decade and preaches role responsibility, discipline and doing your job. The Seahawks are not creative blitzers. They don’t attack in the way Baltimore, Pittsburgh, the Jets or Tampa Bay do.

The most dramatic shift in the Carroll era has pretty much been the post-Earl Thomas cover-tweaks at the back-end and the return to base. That’s it. The idea that suddenly they’re going to open everything up having acquired Jamal Adams seems fanciful.

Look at the other players they’ve acquired for the defense over the years. Whether it was Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Sheldon Richardson or Jadeveon Clowney — no big scheme changes. No massive production. No real freedom for the individual. Simply an introduction to the scheme and a need to do your job.

Turn things over to the offense. Did they dramatically change things for Jimmy Graham? No — they tried to turn him into a ‘complete’ tight end. They wanted Graham to fit them, not the other way around.

Is Adams really likely to be turned into the Swiss-army knife many expect? It’s arguably more likely they drafted him to provide the toughness, tackling and intensity they’ve missed at the position since Kam Chancellor retired. Which is fine. However, whether his production or impact will justify two first round picks will be debatable if they aren’t willing to let him continue to impact games the way the Jets did.

“The Seahawks have great club control for three years”

Let’s get one thing straight. If the Houston Texans had made this trade, everyone would’ve hammered them. Just as they did a year ago when they traded for Laremy Tunsil.

Houston gave up a fortune to acquire Tunsil (and also gained Kenny Stills). However, they had no new contract in place. Thus — the feeling was — they had no leverage when talks would eventually begin.

A year later, the two parties agreed on a contract worth $22m a year. That is $5.5m per year more than the second highest paid tackle (Anthony Castonzo — $16.5m).

It’s incredible that the Texans didn’t have a new contract in place for Tunsil before the trade was complete. They ceded all leverage. Tunsil’s representatives could turn to Houston and say ‘pay us what we want because there’s no way you’re throwing away two first round picks for a couple of years of our man’.

The Rams then repeated the mistake and now they are seriously running the risk of losing Jalen Ramsey by 2022.

The Seahawks are in the same position. Their situation is slightly different because they made the trade after the coronavirus epidemic impacted the global economy. We don’t know what the consequences will be on the NFL going forward. There’s already a very real possibility the cap will reduce next season — following years of consistent growth.

However — that won’t mean anything to Adams and his agent. They can say, just as Tunsil did, ‘pay us what we want because there’s no way you will waste two first round picks’. If the Seahawks say Covid-19 has shifted the financial landscape — Adams’ people will point out they knew what the situation was when they traded for him.

It’s actually worse for the Seahawks in this case not to have a deal in place. If you have the framework for a contract now, you can plan accordingly including worst case scenarios regarding the cap. You can turn to Adams and say — this is the contract that comes with the trade. How badly do you want to be here?

Now they face the prospect of Adams demanding to be the highest paid defensive back in the NFL. He could ask for $20m. And what choice will the Seahawks have but to pay that? At a time when the entire league is going to need to cut costs?

You might argue they don’t need to worry about this for a while. However, they only have a years grace. By next year, Adams is not going to be looking at a $9m salary favourably. He might hold out without a new deal. It’s very unlikely he’ll be prepared to play for $9m next year and $11-12m on the franchise tag in 2022. A contract will need to be agreed in the next 18 months and Adams has all of the leverage.

It will be very difficult to justify paying a linebacker $18.5m a year and a strong safety $20m a year if the pass rush is terrible and ultimately costing the Seahawks a shot at a Championship.

This is the crux of the matter really and will be until the issue is solved. The Seahawks have a bad defensive line (the worst according to PFF). After signing their rookie class they now have about $13m to spend according to Spotrac (which is really about $8m when you factor in injured reserve and the practise squad). Snacks Harrison is considering whether he intends to play in 2020. Nothing is happening with Jadeveon Clowney as the stalemate drags on (will he sit out the season?). The cuts this week were clearly just part of a plan to get down to an 80-man roster rather than an indication of any additional signings being close.

They’ve essentially replaced Clowney with Benson Mayowa, while hoping Darrell Taylor and Bruce Irvin can chip in as a compliment. Meanwhile Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson — a good run defender and a good interior rusher — have not been replaced.

Colin Cowherd raised a fair point this week. When was Seattle’s last meaningful playoff win? It’s the 2014 season. Beating the Vikings thanks to a blown kick, the Lions in Seattle or the Eagles last year without their quarterback is nothing to write home about. They’ve lost against serious opponents such as Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Atlanta. In three of those games they were walloped and only Wilson’s magic in the second half prevented a blow-out.

For the Seahawks to become a serious threat in the post-season again — can they really rely on Mayowa, Irvin and Taylor? And won’t the lack of quality on the D-line simply undermine the massive investment made in the linebacker and safety positions? Because on top of Wagner and Adams they’re also paying K.J. Wright $10m this year, they’ve used a first round pick on Jordyn Brooks, they traded up in round three for Cody Barton, they traded for Quandre Diggs, used a top-50 pick on Marquise Blair, spent a third rounder on Lano Hill and a fourth rounder on Ugo Amadi.

That’s a lot of resources simply to roll out a decidedly suspect defensive line.

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  1. JLemere

    Sounds like 2012, but now we are hoping Benson Mayowa or Darrell Taylor will be the “Chris Clemons” on this team.

    • cha

      In 2012 they had on the DL

      Brandon Mebane
      Red Bryant
      Alan Branch
      Clinton McDonald
      Greg Scruggs
      Jaye Howard

      At any given time they had 1000lbs of beef opening holes for Irvin and Clemons. And if they didn’t get to the QB, you still got the tar beaten out of you and needed that cold tub after the game.

      The 2020 line has a couple of spare ribs and a side of rice and beans.

      • BobbyK

        You can’t count Jaye Howard as being good for the 2012 team. They released him shortly after. He wasn’t good for the Seahawks.

        Irvin was never as good for the Seahawks as some think he is/was. There’s a reason they didn’t extend him. He had a bunch of sacks in the first half of the Packers game and then not too much else for the rest of his Seahawks career… but he sure was a good SAM (about the defensive position teams care about least), though he wasn’t good enough to start in the Super Bowl at the end of his third year – M. Smith was MVP of the Super Bowl starting in his position.

        • Rob Staton

          100% correct on Irvin

        • cha

          Fair enough. I didn’t mean to imply that Irvin was some pass rushing demon.

          But the 2012 DL was violent and tough, if not great at getting at the QB. My intent was to rebut the idea that the 2020 DL is like the 2012 DL. The 2020 DL does not have the traits of 2012.

          • BobbyK

            Mebane was a stud. Like Reed today. They are/were different players, but in the end – each are very good. They are great complimentary pieces, but a DL has to be pretty bad if they are the best player overall. In ’12, Mebane was a good/great complimentary piece inside to Clemons. But the ’20 Seahawks don’t have one good/great guy like Clem to be the focal point… and the ’12 team needed more (much more) than simply the top two cogs being Clem and Mebane.

            We don’t even have our Clem. We could if we resigned Clowney, but that ship has probably/unfortunately sailed. We’re doomed to have a crappy DL this year, even if we have a good piece like Reed.

            The only way this season can play out well in terms of rushing the passer is if Taylor is the real deal and can be a stud Leo starting now. We know what we have with our other “rush” ends and there’s a reason I used quotations around that word.

    • Gohawks5151

      Is it bad if they are trying to be more like that 2012 team? That team was strong on the back end, weak on the pass rush. This team could be the same if Dunbar clears. I know the DL was stronger overall in 2012 but experience in the LB crew could make up that difference. Plus they can still sign for the DL. The true difference is on offense. Russ is the difference. He is a guy that can get hot in the playoffs and carry the team to more than the sum of their parts. The run game is strong still too. TE/WR talent is probably better too.

      • Miami Hawk

        Any thought that the team they have now is not how they are designing it is questionable. They traded for Diggs, Baker, and Adams, and drafted Griffen, and Blair. When their shitty draft position picks didnt give the results they wanted (Blair so far), they went out and traded for a top secondary. They grabbed Earl and Irvin (as a SAM) and snagged Bobby with better picks than we have had since and hit the lottery with Kam and Sherman.

        They could have paid Clark, or Clowney or signed or traded for one of the FAs (and had to pay him) this year but they chose to focus their capital on building a secondary and LBs. This is exactly how they did it before and the results speak for themselves.

        In the LOB years their DL eventually jelled once the secondary came together. Their DL was really a bunch of guys without much in the way of credentials. Wasnt Bennett the only one who ever even made a pro bowl? We can bemoan the lack of success they have had drafting DL but Clark was a damn good pick, Malik looked like he could have been really good, and Collier is a work in progress. If he eventually is a bust so be it. It happens but always picking above the 20s is like that.

        This team right now looks more like a Pete Carroll designed team than we have seen since 2014. And I for one, think it has more potential since any since then.

        As for the OL, they choose road graders and thats what they get. I do think the upgrades at TE will improve the offense immensely including the OL.

  2. Henry Taylor

    These are all fair points you raise. I will say the contract thing doesn’t worry me too much because I believe Adams wants to be here and the Seahawks FO are competent enough to know they can get a deal done. It will be expensive but hopefully not back breaking (maybe I’m too optimistic with that, I refuse to believe otherwise until proven wrong tho, just for my sanity). And the more I think about it I’m cool with the cost because he is a genuine superstar, the likes of which we’ve lacked since the glory days, and you dont get to add those guys often.

    The point that really resonates however, and this is going back to your article the other day, is that they are now even more desperate for some legit pass rush than before. This is a “win now” trade. And they cant win now without some kind of Dline reinforcement, I really hope they know this.

    • Rob Staton

      Regarding Adams wanting to be here…

      I hope so. But go back and see what he said during the combine broadcast this year about wanting to be with the Jets and how there had been progress with contract talks and how happy he was. He was positively buzzing on the field about his future in New York.

      His desire to stay in Seattle will eventually depend on their willingness to meet his contract demands. And the Seahawks have ceded all leverage in those talks to the player. So good luck driving a hard bargain.

      • Denver Hawker

        I thought about this leverage thing for awhile re: Adams.

        He has two years left on contract and can be tagged for a 3rd. There’s no rush to sign an extension. Also, there’s mutual interest to realize his value in the Hawks system. I suspect if he is everything they traded for after 2020, they’ll pay him top safety money. If not, the leverage equation starts to shift. Maybe he holds out the last year, but there is a lot still to determine before I consider Adams to hold all the chips.

        • Rob Staton

          I answered this in the article though.

          He was mad with the Jets because he wanted paying. Do people seriously think he’s going to just happily play for $9m in 2021? Or accept that and a franchise tag in 2022?


          And if he threatens to hold out unless the Seahawks pay up, what exactly are they going to do about it? Let him walk? Trade him?

          No. They’ve made their bed. He holds all the cards now. The only option the Seahawks really have are to meet his demands, on his timeframe and on his terms. Just as the Texans had to with Tunsil. Just as the Rams are going to have to do with Ramsey. And it’ll either be bloody expensive or very messy.

          All we can hope for now is that he lives up to the trade compensation, they win a Championship and therefore nobody really cares about the cost of the salary. But how likely is that with the current DL?

          • cha

            I’ve been barking about this ever since the Tunsil and Ramsey trade.

            I honestly thought I’d NEVER see the Seahawks FO with JS and PC fall into the exact same trap.

          • Denver Hawker

            And I agree with all that. I also think he needs to have a good season in a new system. His leverage is lessened if his production drops off or gets injured. Clowney is a good example of not taking the tag and now looking for work.

          • mishima

            I’ll be surprised if Adams/Seahawks work out an extension.

            IMO, the trade was for 2 years of cheap, elite talent. We’ll see if Adams is cool with that.

            Bet: messy.

            • GoHawksDani

              If this was a 2 years rental every twelve should just go to PCJS houses’ with torches. That would be legit crazy. That would mean this FO is the absolute worst in the NFL, even worse than the Bill O’Brien. You don’t give up 1+1+3 for a 2 year rental

              • mishima

                Agree, but as of now, that’s exactly what they did.

          • Jhams

            The new CBA makes holdouts extremely unlikely.

            • Rob Staton

              We’ll see…

              And a holdout doesn’t have to mean missing regular season games to have a big impact on a team, or essentially get your own way as a player.

          • Matthew Weber

            It becomes fairly simple. With Adams they become a significantly better team than they would be with any of the high dollar pass rushers. As a result their future picks are less valuable.

            The rule to building a good team is simple. You can pay top dollar for players but they have to be players worth it to your team. Adams is. We now have the best set of safeties in the league. In Pete’s system that is gold.

            • Rob Staton

              If you have the worst DL in the league you will not win a Super Bowl.

  3. Stephen Pitell

    You always connect the dots and make sense, and this is no exception. However, you seem to be recycling the same points a bit too often for my tastes. It seems as though you have changed from respecting John and Pete to continuously questioning their competence. I believe most of your criticisms stem from circumstances beyond their control such as the non-signing of Clowney.

    I have not lost faith in the FO, especially not as a result of this trade. Quite the opposite, I believe they pulled off a trade that will make us a better team for the forseeable future.

    You begin by calling Adams a “great player” and if all he was was a great player than perhaps this trade would not have been wise, but I believe he is an elite player, and probable HOF player. In fact, about the only thing that will keep him out of the HOF at this point is an injury shortened career. He has already earned more awards than Chancellor who has zero All Pro years. I love Chancellor, but Adams is much the better player.

    Yes, if Wilson is injured this trade may not work out very well, but in the long run, if we keep Adams for another signing, then he will be worth more to our team than two mid round picks, anyways.

    • Rob Staton

      “However, you seem to be recycling the same points a bit too often for my tastes. It seems as though you have changed from respecting John and Pete to continuously questioning their competence. I believe most of your criticisms stem from circumstances beyond their control such as the non-signing of Clowney.”

      1. I haven’t made any of these points, apart from the DL issues, in any previous article.

      2. I have questioned this off-season because it warrants questioning. I haven’t changed from ‘respecting them’ to a new stance. If they’d knocked this off-season out of the park, I would say so. I don’t think they have. And I think this is one of the few places on the internet willing to challenge what they’ve done while actually using logic and reasoning instead of just saying, ‘let Russ cook’ over and over again.

      3. Fixing the pass rush wasn’t out of their control. Choosing to spend $60m on the players they signed in FA wasn’t out of their control. Spending $25m on two linebackers then drafting a third in R1 wasn’t out of their control. This trade wasn’t out of their control. Do I need to go on?

      • Kyle

        Actually I value this site so much because unlike the analytics crowd, Rob has determined the logic behind the Seahawks’ methods and respected it. He’s praised the Carroll schemes when lots of Twitterites cry that Seattle needs to emulate Kansas City or St. Louis or the flavor of the month. And that hasn’t kept him from offering fair criticism when it is warranted.

        My problem with this off-season is that it feels like the team has abandoned its core tenets. There’s no real logic behind these series of moves, and I’m concerned that a larger institutional failure will follow in the next few seasons.

        • Rob Staton

          I appreciate you saying that Kyle. Because despite some people thinking I’ve suddenly got this massive agenda or are ‘choosing’ to be negative or that I’ve somehow ‘lost respect’ or think I ‘know better’ —- I’m simply doing what I’ve always done.

          Considered thoughts. Logic. Offering opinions that are accompanied with a reasoned breakdown.

          It just so happens, unfortunately, that I think this has been a poor off-season. And I’ve tried to explain why, while also offering positional breakdowns, 2021 draft profiles and a lot of other things.

          This wouldn’t be a site worth visiting if I didn’t offer a honest appraisal of the team. Everything I say, I like to think, is backed up with a strong argument. Some people don’t like me criticising their favourite team. I know that because of the vitriol I’ve received on here, twitter and via email. But I’m going to write about what I think is important, not what I think is convenient.

          • Hawkmonkey

            I would argue that your critique has focused on devaluing draft picks. Every argument you make blocks younger players from getting to play and you are repeating yourself thematically, if not in exact verbage.

            I think the Seahawks may have comes to the conclusion that the identity of the defense is driven by the secondary and that a more talented secondary will improve the pass rush while giving younger players opportunity to play and succeed. This is also in line with conclusions of PFF, with regard to the value of pass rush vs. coverage.

            I think the evidence actually bears this out, but instead of evaluating that, the focus here has been on putting stars on the D-line. Clowney didn’t make our defense much better in terms of rank last year. We had to play base defense because Pete knew how bad our nickel run defense was. Jamal Adams is the best safety vs. the run in the NFL and also better than Bradley McDougald in coverage.

            Jamal Adams can be played like Kam was and even more and still add value to the pass rush, even if he doesn’t blitz 90 times. I think this move, plus Bruce Irvin (very good run defender and decent pass rusher) improves the team more than adding Clowney for less money. The draft capital hurts, but it very well may be worth it in any situation outside of the Peyton Manning neck injury situation.

            • Rob Staton

              No, the focus here has been on not having the worst DL in the NFL (also per PFF) and how that will undermine everything.

              It’s got nothing to do with ‘stars’ on the DL and everything to do with not being useless in terms of the pass rush and DL.

              PC and JS themselves stated many times that fixing the pass rush and retaining Clowney was a priority too.

              I’ve been over this many times in different articles.

              • Mike

                The crux of the negativity is that the main worry of the team two seasons ago (defensive line) was the weakest link in the chain last year, and the year before, and factors to be even more glaring this year.

                If this trade was made whilst we had clowney, griffen, and calais cambell signed, youd hear Rob raving joyfully about our defense.

                Alas, it looks to be painfully bad. Watching the same problem fester and grow is much worse than having a new problem you dont know about. My excitement over having acquired a HOF player is soured by the poor line play that im expecting. Who is the leader of that line? The breadwinner? The proven guy? Bruce isnt it. He’s decent, not dominant. Reed? Decent, not dominant.

                We had this problem last season. We had one good lineman. He got double teamed alll day. His production dropped. Every o line is equipped to block one elite guy. You need 2-3 dominant guys to take pressure off each other to break an offensive line so that one of those guys is free to simply win their 1:1 battle.

                • Rob Staton

                  If this trade was made whilst we had clowney, griffen, and calais cambell signed, youd hear Rob raving joyfully about our defense.


          • smityy1547

            Id agree with Kyle we have disagreed at times, the Cable man for one. However I would 100% agree with you’re analyst of the DL and off season. As with my seahawks information you are usually spot on. (except they kept the Cable guy a few years to long!

  4. Kyle

    Thanks for these points, Rob. If Adams plays as well as those who are cheering this trade say, and is a beastly Chancelloresque all-pro, then his price will go up even more. If Adams plays a little better than Bradley McDougald, he will still request 3x what Bradley made, minimum.

    And all this in a scheme where everyone needs to be assignment correct, which does require competence at every position and less freelancing and blitzing than other big players get. I don’t get it. The team’s philosophy and consistency just seem to have been blown up this offseason.

  5. brendon

    I think the point is acquire elite talent. No matter how you look at the potential value of first round picks, they are still largely unknown how good they will be. They gave away 2 future assets with a lot of question marks for a guy who after 3 years is very smart, tough, reliable. He is a playmaker, there are no questions about his ability on the field, his ability to read offenses and make plays.

    Some may complain about the price, but the seahawks got a top tier talent on defense. something they did not have last year, and certainly did not have last week.

    • Rob Staton

      But the question I will keep asking in response to this is —- if the DL is bad, isn’t a move like this merely an indulgence?

      Because if you can’t rush the passer and keep your second level defenders clean, what then? Especially in a scheme that rushes with four? And doesn’t use exotic blitzing? And doesn’t change much week to week?

      Aren’t you just going to be a defense that struggles to create pressure with a really expensive LB and safety group?

      • brendon

        How effective are pass rushers vs the quick passing game? so many times they rushers don’t get a chance bc the ball is out so fast.

        If the DL is not great, make the secondary better then. They may not change up the scheme, time will tell. They probably won’t. Adams can still have an impact in the middle of the field, vs TEs, vs crossers, etc.

        • Rob Staton

          That’s not how it works Brendon.

          For starters you don’t need to run a ‘quick passing game’ if you have all the time in the world. You can sit tight and wait for openings. Even in a usually up tempo attack.

      • pdway

        Yeah, I think with ‘Indulgence” you’ve found the right word to express your frustration – I get it. Adams is a star, but we had far greater needs elsewhere.

        I think it’s a fair point – and the only counter I have is that stars are rare commodities, esp those that are still have upside years to their careers – so it’s almost like a version of BPA in the draft (only w much higher stakes, obviously).

        • Rob Staton

          I’m not expressing frustration or any other emotion.

          I’m analysing a trade.

  6. mishima

    Beginning to question whether they’re willing to pay for / commit to elite talent.

    • pdway

      Russell, Bobby, to a lesser extent, Brown and Lockett. We signed all our LOB guys to hefty 2nd contracts (and then balked at 3rd contracts due to legit age/injury issues.)

      • mishima

        IMO, Wilson and Wagz are in a different category. They’re the franchise.

        Post Paul Allen, they’ve eschewed top talent in free agency, instead going for quantity over quality.

        Seems like their strategy is to find value/talent through trades: Diggs, Clowney, Dunbar, Adams.

        • GoHawksDani

          Adams can be franchise too. He’s young, he’s among the concensus top3-4 safeties. Use him well and he’s as good as Bobby and Russ. Adams is far from Diggs, not even on the same page as Dunbar, and even a lot better than Clowney

          • mishima

            I wasn’t commenting on Adams’ talent level.

  7. JAS

    The single biggest factor that causes me to not lament the price paid is the havoc that the Virus has caused and will continue to cause in sports. I will be surprised if a full season of college football gets played. Chances are fairly good that a full NFL season won’t get played.

    I wouldn’t want to be an NFL executive trying to decide how to invest a first round pick on players who haven’t played meaningful football in nearly two years. Then think about this: what if a full NFL season doesn’t get played? How do they decide draft order? My money says they default to this year’s order. And what if only a few NFL games get played before the season has to be called off? If players don’t earn an accrued year, then the Seahawks’ control of Adams just got pushed a year further down the road.

    There are just so many unknowns over the next year to two years that in my mind having control of an asset like Adams for three or four years offers a much greater potential return than those two first round picks.

    • Rob Staton

      Which is a fair point and one I raised many times myself before the trade.

      But it is still worth considering some of the other points raised here —- namely how value can be unpredictable and you never know where you’ll be drafting, plus the future dilemmas they might face in finding solutions at positions like LT.

      • JAS

        Agreed. I find all of your points to be valid as well. Particularly the notion that they were already going to have a hard time addressing needs like LT in the future. If all of the difficulties I proposed come to pass, it’s going to be EVEN MORE difficult.

        I guess at the end of the day, I just see the certainty of Jamal Adams as sightly outweighing the uncertainty of what those two first round picks will end up being.

  8. Amanuel A.

    With a trading involving so much risk/reward it’s fair to recognize the fragility in this concept that is Adams is worth the trade AND a new contract.

    I also see a lot of us supporting the trade are banking he’ll continue all-pro play extending into a new contract paying 18+m/yr. Those assumptions/hopes are lofty and don’t seem fit for a team with a mvp qb in his prime who could use those draft/cap space assets traded to build a foundation around him that extends said prime and stay competitive similar to that of brees/saints

    A take in support of the trade I’d have would be to look at Pete Carroll and his say over these decisions and how long he has left. The reluctance in scheme change (in particular after the dismantling of the LOB/cap purges) and recent additions to the secondary (Diggs/Adams) suggest Carroll is giving his method one last go before his contract finishes. It seems like a waste of time NOT to see it through Carroll’s eyes. 70+yr old accomplished man who is of conviction and that probably wants to go out his way.

    Of course some positions won’t be as good as ’13, but a makeshift safety tandem of diggs/Adams paired with the best LB the the NFL could be a defense that’s poised to get better in the future and enough for Wilson & co. On the offense to take us over the top.

  9. pdway

    “You tell me if any of this is unfair…

    “It’s just like trading up in the draft. The Seahawks haven’t picked in the top-10 since 2010. This is just like they traded up from the 20’s…”

    This is not strictly true. When you trade up in the draft, you are only trading one future pick. This means, you know the position you are trading from.”

    True, but you’re leaving out the flip side positive – which is that we know what we have in Adams, making him far more of a sure thing than an unproven #6 pick. A quick perusal of the last 10 years of #6 picks shows some stars, but also some Barkevious Mingo’s and Andre Smith’s. So, one could argue that Adams (at this young age) is a better overall value than any #6 pick (even when taking into account the lost rookie contract years).

    • Rob Staton

      That’s a different argument. I specifically address one key reason why it’s not the same as trading up in the draft. But you can also easily say if you trade up for a veteran you’re going to pay a lot more too.

  10. JNSeahawks

    All fair points. This was a bold move by the Hawks. A bold move can turn into a stupid move quite easily, and this deal for sure has the potential to be a catastrophic misfire. However, I still like the trade. Players the caliber of Adams rarely come available, so I think you need to be prepared to take advantage when such an opportunity presents itself.
    They undoubtedly won’t be completely altering their defensive scheme just to accommodate Adams, but JS and PC have both insinuated in recent interviews that they plan to “let Adams be himself” (or something to that effect) and that part of the rationale for trading for him was to counter the creative scheming of the other teams in the NFCW. I doubt he blitzes as much as he did in NY, but there’s no doubt that the Hawks value and plan to take advantage of his versatility.
    You can turn to Adams and say — this is the contract that comes with the trade. How badly do you want to be here?
    This would be an ideal scenario, but it seems like wishful thinking. Agreeing to a contract based around a hypothetical worst case salary cap scenario? Why would Adams agree to this? Without a doubt, Adams will be wanting to be paid handsomely after this season, but the Hawks can keep him under contract at a reasonable rate for 3 more years without there being much of a risk of him holding out due to the current structure of the CBA. The Seahawks hold at least some leverage in contract talks.

    • Rob Staton

      But I’m not saying offer Adams a crap contract. You could even make him the highest paid safety in the league.

      That is a perfectly fair offer. You want a trade? Want to be paid? Here’s your chance. Are you going to take it?

      Instead they ceded all leverage and like Tunsil it will cost them.

      • JNSeahawks

        They ceded some leverage, but the Hawks still maintain a fair amount for the reason that I stated. There’s virtually no threat of Adams holding out, and do you really think he’ll make a big stink about getting more money after the Hawks offer to make him the highest paid safety in the league and after what he just went through with the Jets? He’d be vilified.

        • Rob Staton

          Of course there’s a threat of him holding out. I don’t know why you’d suggest otherwise???

          It’s exactly how I laid it out. He has ALL of the leverage, just as Tunsil did. He will get whatever he wants because the Seahawks can’t afford to blow two first round picks.

          It’s naive to think anything else.

          As for being ‘vilified’… you mean like Marshawn, Kam and Earl when they held out? They weren’t remotely vilified. Most fans just yelled ‘pay them’ on twitter.

          • JNSeahawks

            I suppose there’s always a threat but it’s prohibitive under the current CBA- increased fines and the potential loss of an accrued season toward free agency. As for the past holdouts you mentioned, those were different situations. Each of them were playing on their second contracts and each of them had spent most of their careers up to that point with the Seahawks. Also, if Adams does end up making demands/threats, it’ll be the second team (!) that he’s backed into a corner over money. Throw a standing offer to become the highest paid safety in the league into the mix, and ya, I think he’d be vilified.

            • Rob Staton

              He won’t be vilified. Just look at the way Seahawks fans react to any issues like this.

              He has all negotiating leverage. That’s just a fact. And he can milk that whichever way he wishes.

            • Steve Nelsen

              The changes regarding holdouts in the new CBA can’t be ignored. A player will have significantly less leverage in 2021 than they did in 2019. I’m not too concerned about the salary implications of the Adams trade. If he plays at an All-Pro level and gets paid accordingly; then it will work out.

              My only real concern is the potential that our 2021 or 2022 pick might be more valuable than anticipated because of an injury/down season scenario. But, I understand the perspective that you can’t avoid great opportunities because of worrying about worst-case scenarios.

  11. Michael P Matherne

    I completely agree with your points that, “this isn’t the same as trading up in the draft.” I think it must also be acknowledged that the flip side of that point is also true. They’re not trading for a college player who may or may not ultimately pan out, the return is a guy who is already an All-Pro

    • Michael P Matherne

      Just read the comment above… haha

    • Rob Staton

      And they will pay him about $20m.

  12. Leonardo

    Ultimately, if you gave any other GM in the league Russell Wilson in his prime, some top 50 draft picks, and 60 million in cap space, wouldn’t you expect better than what we got? Wouldn’t you expect to be a Super Bowl contender after that? The Packers had some cap space last year with a much older Rodgers and leapt right back into contention by signing some pass rushers. It didn’t have to be this complicated.

    I would be fascinated to see one day what Pete and John had planned for this off-season, because it just feels like they have been on the back foot with every decision they have made. If not being able to sign Clowney managed to derail their plans this thoroughly, we really should be asking questions of the FO. And I feel like if Paul Allen was watching this off-season unfold, he would be asking them. There is an implicit authority and expectation of excellence that great owners provide, and we lost a legendary one.

    • mishima

      Well said. “It didn’t have to be this complicated.” Yep, yep.

    • MyChestisBeastMode

      While I tend to agree with you, I feel we are looking at the Packers 2018 FA moves through the lens that their recently signed pass rushers were sure things. I’d argue they surpassed expectations and were a more than a pleasant surprise for the 🧀-heads. And as a Hawks fan, I hope (with a heavy dose of caution) that Old Bruce Irvin and the “better than scout team” version of Benson Mayowa along with unproven youngsters can also do us a solid and surpass our expectations.

      To qualify my expectations, if our Dline ends up top 20 then expectations met. If better than top 15 then expectations surpassed. Obviously, at this moment their is general pessimism that the Hawks could elevate their game to that level with current talent. My retort is, “what the hell do we know about what the future holds?” Not the strongest of arguments I’ll admit, but in the COVID era one’s got to grasp for silver linings and hold on to them tightly.

  13. Ashish

    with all due respect 🙏, we gave thought on if we select Isaiah Simmons by trading up will change defense. We still need help at DL in either case. How different is this situation now? Isaiah Simmons is unproven compare to Adams.

    • Rob Staton

      With all due respect, the Isaiah Simmons discussion was totally different and I have no idea why people keep bringing that up 🤦‍♂️

    • GoHawksDani

      I think we talked about trading up for Simmons + sign Clowney and maybe a couple other passrushers. Not just trading up for Simmons and the defense is ready. And as Rob mentioned trading up for Simmons would mean trade one of your firsts for the year (in the 20s) and only one unknown pick

    • McZ

      Isaiah Simmons was discussed early BEFORE the draft, when the Seahawks still had 50m of FA money to spend.

      So it would have been a planned move fulfilling a vision on how that team should be built.

      Now, we spend 2 first rounders plus a third rounder plus a starting safety on a player wanting a new contract, and having the leverage to make himself the by far best paid 20m backfielder.

      Even worse, the 2019 defensive edition of the Hawks was really bad, frustratingly so – even with Clowney, with lazy tackling all over the field, major problems rushing the passer and stopping the run and with pretty much meh years all over the roster. Their only saving grace was creating turnovers. They were #3 in the league, with 16 interceptions and 16 fumbles. Bradley McDougald was silently one of the best man-coverage safeties in the entire league in this scheme.

      So, especially with PCs do-your-job-defence, the whereabouts, the problems remaining unfixed, mark me as sceptical, that Adams will be elevating this D. What fans are searching for is a savior, much like they viewed Clowney; but this is not team building.

      • Rob Staton

        The whole Simmons discussion was on the premise of them fixing the pass rush pre draft then doubling down with a 240lbs linebacker who runs a 4.3, won the Butkus Award, could rush off the edge legitimately and add a new dimension within the existing structure.

        It’s not remotely the same as trading two R1’s for a safety at the end of July having not fixed the pass rush at all.

        • Ashish

          okay fair enough. We overpaid ( we always do) for Adams, if we sign Clowney or someone similar does it make hawks better? Since we now have Adams, Brooks, Blair and Bobby to counter run and catch & run it did one area of concern which we are acknowledge here.
          Rob, I love this blog because everyone put their perspective and I/we respect everyone opinions. Please voice your opinion I like to hear it.

  14. DC

    Pete’s contract ends after 2021. Maybe he’s planning on hanging it up after that & grabbed the best player he could get, price & future be damned… Regardless, what’s done is done. So what’s the next move? I imagine it’s something to help keep the Linebackers clean.

  15. Phil

    At this point, they need to strongly consider cutting KJ.
    I know it may seem like bad taste…and may infuriate Bobby.
    But the team would simply be better with Clowney. KJ signed that kind of contract, and I’m sure he knew the entire thing wasn’t guaranteed. He is a great player and person, but John Schneider needs to make a business decision for the team. This is why he gets paid the big bucks – not to try and please everyone.
    (Just my thoughts. It probably won’t happen…but it needs to. )

    • MyChestisBeastMode

      Ya, who knows what’s going on with Clowney. But, I imagine if he calls the Hawks with a number they deem acceptable, then KJ is a goner as consequence.

    • Rob Staton

      Then do it after you spend a R1 pick on his replacement.

      Or in February when you save more money.

      Don’t do it in a snake move in August.

      • Phil

        I think maybe the extra million that they allowed him to get can be seen as “classy”. They didn’t have to keep him. They may even be having discussions behind the scenes with him along the lines of: “if the rookie looks good enough & we need that cash for a different hole, we’ll need to release you.” “We could just release you now, but you’ll lose out on the million roster bonus and the chance to compete for the rest.” “What would you prefer…?”
        I don’t know what all conversations they’ve had, but I always hear that JS is very honest & up front in his conversations with his veterans.
        It could be that they hope to keep him but know that it may not end up being in the best interest of the team. (We really don’t know all that they are thinking about; but if it makes sense to many of us, it may be a thought process for the organization.)

    • GoHawksDani

      It’s ridiculous that they kept him while grabbed an LB in R1. 10m can get you a really good nCB+solid run defender DT. that and whatever we have could mean Clowney. Or DT+Griffen.
      KJ is still a solid player. But he had some ugly plays last year

    • TheMaskettaMan

      No, cutting the 11th leading tackler in the league from a defense whose principle problem last year was poor tackling is the absolute worst thing to do. Wright gets paid what he does for a reason, that being that he is an elite tackler who hardly ever takes bad angles–“The Anti-Curry” to quote Brock Huard. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were, predictably, the top two tacklers on the 2019 defense (Wagner was first in the entire NFL), but Wright had an utterly insane FIFTY more tackles than the team’s third leading tackler, Tre Flowers. Take a moment to digest that. Wagner and Wright were tackling damn near every ball carrier themselves all year. K.J. Wright is indispensible to this incarnation of the Seahawks defense.

      For all the talk about the poor pass rush, the real glaring problem with the 2019 Seahawks defense was missed tackles caused by bad angles and guys generally being out of position. Consider that every tackle made properly by a man in position is an offensive big play that did not happen. The Seahawks gave up an absurd number of big plays, especially in the running game, which left the defense significantly vulnerable to play action for the first time in Pete Carroll’s tenure. It got so bad that Norton had to reduce the amount of time that the Seahawks spent in Cover-3 which relies heavily on assignment-sound football and instead leave the defense in the Cover-2 which every defensive player since 2002 has become intimately familiar with by the time they reach the NFL. Of course, every offensive scheme since 2002 has also been predicated upon defeating the Tampa-2. That change in style was not necessitated by Earl Thomas’ absence. Quandre Diggs is fully capable of playing the deep middle third well, albeit not as well as the Olympian god of football that is Earl Thomas. It was caused by guys not understanding what was expected of them or just making poor reads and getting themselves suckered into being where they did not belong. K.J. Wright is a player that you can trust will always be right where he is supposed to be, as evidenced by what happens every time an opposing offense dials up an ill-advised screen to the weak side.

      They desperately need more players like Wright, not to get rid of the one that they have. That, more than any other reason, is why Adams is here. Dude straight up tackles and is already well-known for taking correct angles and for being where he is supposed to be. Bradley McDougald, as solid a safety as he usually was, missed a lot of tackles last year, as did Mychal Kendricks who is also now gone, presumably replaced by Jordyn Brooks who was an excellent tackler in college. Carroll and Norton know what needs to be fixed on the defense, and it’s not what the press thinks it is.

      • Rob Staton

        It’s certainly true that bad tackling was a massive problem last year that needs to be rectified.

        But I’ll note again that both Carroll and Schneider said fixing the pass rush was the key and they also said retaining Clowney was a priority. They failed to sufficiently address the defining issue of the off-season.

        • Scot04

          Don’t forget keeping continuity on the Offensive Line. They failed there as well.

          • Mike

            Well, the blindside is still intact. That counts for something. Im mostly concerned about center on the line. Yes RT is maybe an issue, and Duane is getting older and could drop from injury. But center was a liability last year with Hunt in. Its also a key leadership position, and one that directs line play for the group. We got a rotational backup guy to play this. I think he has potential upside, probably the smarts to do it.. but its unproven. Hes also not a physical specimen, but is a grinder to his credit. He now has to lead the unit. Im worried about that. Especially with a rookie and some new faces. The talent may be there eventually, but with covid and the changes it’s gonna make for some ugly learning curve early on. I can live without another weapon for russ, cause he’s gonna take some ugly sacks early this season.

        • TheMaskettaMan

          Fixing the pass rush was important, but to call it the defining issue of the off-season is, I think, a mistake. The pass rush is high profile, of course, and elite pass rushers like Everson Griffen command the money that they do for a reason. That said, acquiring one of those guys has never been the key to fixing a team’s pass rushing woes. Consider how the Seahawks acquired other successful pass rushers. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett came into town at dirt cheap prices in free agency, just like Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin recently did. Chris Clemons–then a rotational player in Philadelphia–was acquired in what is in retrospect one of the greatest steals in Seahawks trade history. That is how Schneider has learned to acquire pass rushing talent, and it is the shrewd way to do so. Pass rushing talent is best acquired from the bargain bin and not in blockbuster deals. I do not expect Benson and Bruuuuuce to be Cliff and Mike, but I do expect them to fill the role in the pass rush that was sorely and noticeably absent last year: outside speed.

          A pass rush is composed of elements working in concert; it is not a series of four or five one-on-one match-ups between offensive and defensive linemen. The problem with the 2019 Seahawks pass rush was principally that it lacked that outside speed, which Frank Clark had provided in previous years. While one should never infer causality from statistics (a mathematical rule that the so-called “analytics” community routinely ignores), a few different statistics viewed together illustrate the point. While the Seahawks pass rush generated very few quarterback hits and sacks relative to the mean, it was fairly middle of the road at generating quarterback pressures. From the quarterbacks’ perspective, hits and sacks tend to happen by surprise. A speed rusher bends around the left tackle and ambushes him from the blind side, a linebacker whom he thought was dropping into coverage instead bursts through the B-gap and is in his face before he is on his second read, or the running back whiffs on a safety blitz. Pressure that they see coming (eg. Jarran Reed putting the guard in front of him on roller skates or Quinton Jefferson stunting inside) gives them an opportunity to either escape the pocket and extend the play or dump the ball to a safety valve UNLESS there is simultaneous pressure from around him applied by a speedy guy or a five-tech who has the right tackle on his back foot. That’s when the Jarran Reeds of the world get a chance to pad their numbers, and that is also precisely why Reed’s 2019 number look so radically different from his 2018 numbers. Him manhandling the guard and/or center does not have the same impact when the quarterback can just take a step to the right like he’s doing the Time Warp and sling the ball out of there. He gets a pressure on his stat sheet (the Seahawks generated plenty), sure, but the offense gets a first-down (the Seahawks gave up plenty).

          Now, I hear you thinking, “That’s all the more reason to go out and get that big-name edge rusher!” The thing is, it doesn’t take a superstar on the edge collecting fourteen sacks a year to successfully fill that role. A reasonably-priced nine-sacks-per-year guy who plays assignment-sound football, like Bruce Irvin, can get the job done well enough to allow everyone around him to get their jobs done. Lest we forget, that is exactly what Cliff Avril used to produce like. By himself Cliff was good, but together with Mike Bennett and the rest of that line they were greater than the sum of their parts.

          Jedeveon Clowney was supposed to be that guy last year, but the injuries ruined that plan. Clowney still got a ton of pressures and broke up a lot of plays in spectacular fashion, but he was just not able to be that speed on the outside while playing through what must have been horrific pain. Afterward. Carroll and Norton tried desperately to create speed on the edge, unleashing the unprepared Rasheem Green who did not yet have his assignments down and finally even Shaquem Griffen who flashed some tantalizing potential in the playoffs. Those two guys were not ready for prime time, but if just one of them steps up and really learns the position he could be a valuable part of the rotation this year.

          So what do we have now? Two veteran edge rushers who can produce reliable if less than extraordinary results with a group of speedy guys with upside (including the draft picks) behind them and at least one capable interior rusher (Quinton Jefferson will be sorely missed). They could certainly use another good interior pass rusher, but those guys are almost as difficult to find as decent offensive linemen.

          Beyond just having the right personnel, there is another aspect to the pass rush that has not been touched upon here, namely the effect that pass coverage has on it. In 2019, as I mentioned earlier, the Saehawks were forced to alter their scheme to cover for a disastrous and surprising incompetence in defensive fundamentals. DBs not named Quandre Diggs or Shaquill Griffen and linebackers not named K.J. Wright or Bobby Wagner frequently got suckered out of position by clever OCs and quarterbacks, and that led to receivers and tight ends running wild and free in the secondary. When that happens, a pass rush that does not arrive within two seconds never gets a chance to arrive at all. Clem, Cliff, Mike, and Frank had all the time that the Legion of Boom could give them to hunt down quarterbacks. Also, quarterbacks quickly learned not to zip desperation passes into areas where Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, or Richard Sherman might be prowling for the sake of the receiver’s health if not the football’s. Even throwing across the field at Byron Maxwell posed the threat of his famous left jab finding the football. Shaquill and Quandre are good DBs, but they do not inspire anything near the kind of fear that those guys inspired. That brings me to the point: Jamal Adams provides that boom that encourages receivers to avoid stretching out. If receivers start getting lit up again and Griffen adds a bit of ball-hawking to his game, quarterbacks may begin to learn not to try to beat the pass rush with a quick release. Then we can all go back to just worrying about the offensive line.

          • Rob Staton

            The Seahawks front office themselves said the pass rush was a priority.

            • TheMaskettaMan

              It was a priority, and they addressed it in the same way that they always do. They found capable players at a bargain price to do what they need to have done. It would have been great to have gotten Clowney back, but by the time his price came down they had already invested elsewhere. Seriously, when was the last time the Seahawks dropped big money for a top-flight pass rusher? Patrick Kerney? They always get these bargain guys.

              • fransgeraedts


                • Mike

                  Yeah i can see that. Though we need more beef in the middle of the line at least. It has only shrank since last year.

                  Still, the dline isnt what it should be. Those may be shrewd deals if it works. But if it doesn’t, it will have failed, predictably. Not surprisingly, but predictably for the 3rd year in a row.

                  Rewind things back. We were debating about paying frank. Imagine us paying him for a 3 year contract. We dont sign ansah as a result. Then we add clowney, even if only for a year. How many more games would we have won last year? How much more would we have won games by last year?

              • God of Thunder

                Good posts MaskettaMan

          • pdway

            there is some good analysis in there – but when you are rushing four – which is what the Hawks do a ton – sometimes it does come down to your guy beating his man If you personnel is not as good as the people they’re going at – then the QB has enough time to render whatever else you’re doing on defense, useless. No D can hold up when a QB has all day to throw the ball.

            I’m reserving judgment on Irvin and Mayowa – last time I saw Irvin in a Hawks uniform he was not an above-average pass rusher, maybe he’s picked up a few tricks over the years.

  16. David

    Rob a few things I think should be added to your consideration:

    1. the predictability of the draft, meaning, if you are right and the ‘Hawks suddenly find themselves holding the #12 pick or whatever, instead of the #27 pick, exactly how might that play out? There’s a big difference between a Jamal Adams and a college player who might be great and who might not. Every draft is full of these. So you must place a premium on a known entity (and 24 yrs old), vs a “hopefully is great” entity

    2. this particular draft in 2021, where they’ve given up a 1st and a 3rd, is likely to have an even higher % of bad picks because of COVID, unfortunately. Enhances further the value of a known entity vs a draft pick or even two draft picks. Furthermore, even absent COVID the 2021 class is considered top-heavy, meaning more hit-and-miss than usual. I’m personally more worried about the 2022 pick but on the other hand, happy we got a 4th there, which may be worth more than the 3rd in 2021. Esp if the Jets continue to be the Jets.

    3. the effect on sacks that Adams could have isn’t just how many he personally gets on blitzes. He, Diggs and Wagner patrolling the middle of the field is likely the strongest defensive spine in the league. If that buys an extra 0.5 secs for the pass rushers, how many of those pressures become sacks? I personally don;t expect the Hawks to change their blitz approach because of Adams, but I sure as hell think they believe the middle of the field will become more difficult for opposing teams.

    Now to agree with you on a few things:

    – I have no idea how Schneider managed to fritter away $60m the way he did. The team does NOT look like it spent $60m this offseason. But I think that’s an independent analysis vs the Adams trade, don’t believe the Adams trade was a make-up deal but rather in and of itself a decision. Still, I think we have to consider this offseason to have been subpar

    – Seattle needed stronger defensive end play, and another DT, before the offseason started, and still haven’t done anything about it — Irvin and Mayowa notwithstanding. There’s still time so we shouldn’t condemn them yet, but, they can’t think they’re done yet — and I think Schneider’s been hinting at that in fact. There’s no way they can stand pat on what they have now

    – the OL frankly scares the shit out of me. No center that knows Wilson other than Pocic; have never played together; Brown is 35 and had to play hurt last year; and if we’re honest, little depth. Can;t believe all the players and money they spent, to have this OL. OMG.

    – hate the realization that Adams will have us by the throat in a year. Only thing I can think of is that Schneider is going to pony up, and has done the cap math on what that means. I fear it means Wagner won’t be renewed and Jordyn Brooks is our new middle linebacker. Makes me take a big deep breath.

    All that said, I love having Adams and believe he makes us instantly better; we paid the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart on the nose (so fair value) if you use our picks at 24 or 23, and calculate McDougald as a 6th rd comp pick; and at the same time, can agree with you that the offseason (so far) is more questions than answers

    • McZ

      The equation is having two chances to draft a LT or DE plus a third rounder plus a starting safety, who was one of the top coverage players in the NFL. Or to have the new savior, Jamal Adams.

      No, Cowherd is right. People tend to hang this uncertainty thing too high when it comes to high draft picks.

      If we had drafted Andre Dillard in 2019 and Isaiah Wilson in 2020, which were both in our range and were widely considered top talent, we would have fixed both tackle spots for years to come. If we had packed #21 and #29 to trade up to #7 in 2019, we would have a pass rusher.

      We drafted LJ Collier and Jordyn Brooks, two fringe backups.

      No need to blame uncertainty. This franchise seems mentally unable to simply do the right thing.

      • Rob Staton

        And this is why some of us have called this a desperation move.

        To me it feels like they know full well they’ve had a lousy reset and are now hoping one big aggressive move will accelerate progress.

        When in reality they could’ve just done things a lot better in the first place and planned accordingly.

        From the Clark trade onwards it’s just been mishandled… the use of their picks… the way they handled addressing the D-line this off-season… the way they spent their $60m…

        Everything has just felt off. And because of that, they’re now hoping trading away their best assets for the next two years for one star defender will cover everything up. But it won’t, will it? It won’t make up for a terrible D-line. It won’t cover up for a bad O-line which they’re going to have to patch up for two years now.

        These are things that need to be critiqued and challenged. I’m as surprised as anyone how poorly they’ve handled their roster since the end of 2018. I don’t want to write these words but I have to.

        As I wrote a few days ago the only way they can justify this now is by making sure that D-line is significantly improved before the season starts. And that doesn’t mean one below average defensive tackle for $2m.

  17. charlietheunicorn

    As with Clowney, if you pay the man, he will play here. If not, then “they gone”
    Really is simple as that. Take emotion out of contract negotiations. This goes for every single player on every single team. I believe every player when they say they want to spend their career in one location, provided they are compensated what they feel they are worth.

    Think of it like used car sales…. just don’t buy a used 1976 Ford Pinto.

  18. HOUSE


    I appreciate the realness of this post. I know several people on both sides of this fence regarding “the Seahawks got fleeced” to “What a heck of a move for Seattle”. I truly appreciate your points and again, I have to wonder what the plan beyond 2020 is. Unless the team knows Jamarco Jones is the LTotF, not having a 1st rd pick hurts. The OL free agency market has been pretty bleh in the past few years and someone like Conklin would’ve made some sense to drastically repair the RT position. I have been baffled by a few of the moves made and Ogbuehi still eats at me. Maybe Mayowa, Irvin and Taylor produce similar to what Clowney did and we saved a couple million dollars. We still need another vet at DT to help out. I still question whether Collier will get some snaps inside, but a guy like Snacks has got to be brought in.

    I will never question Adams playmaking abilities, but betting the forseeable future on a guy/position that you accurately labeled an “indulgence” is a bit worrisome. I hope it works out for the best, but I’m not hanging my hat on that either

  19. Gaux Hawks

    I get it, Rob. But… I still love that they go after what they want.

    And… they fail fast. Fail Fast!!

    You’re probably right about last year’s draft, but you need to make calculated risks (or I least I love the idea of them taking calculated risks).

    They’re savvy and fun and I think they’re doing a great job. I’m not going to nitpick at every move or draft pick.

    I understand (and mostly agree with) your approach and analysis but nonetheless… it’s just so much fun to watch these guys work right now!!

    Thank you for the relentless efforts, so very much appreciated!

    • Ashish

      +12 I agree

    • charlietheunicorn

      Any business is calculated risks. This is really a business, namely entertainment.
      The Seahawks have been beyond wildly successful the last 10+ years from a business perspective.
      It was bought for 194M and is currently estimated at 2.77B in value. Only a paltry +2.5B return on initial investment.

      So, in summary, plenty of risks were taken in the last 10+ years.
      Some on the field (players such as Percy Harvin) and some off the field (going with PC/JS initially)
      Have they lost the Midas touch? Time will tell, but all good things come to an end eventually.
      Next 2 years are prime time to make another Lombardi happen.

    • McZ

      “but you need to make calculated risks”

      Taking Andre Dillard at #21 is a calculated risk, because you know the play, you know the position and the valuation.
      Taking LJ Collier at #29 or Jordyn Brooks at #27, both fringe backups, is mismanagement. Plain and simple.

      And so we will sit another season, pull out our hairs, watch them go down two or three scores vs crap competition, only to have a funny RW comeback.

      • Ashish

        I happen to watch LJ Collier highlights and he really played well. Let’s hope he was limited due to injury and shows up good with experience and good health. Brooks pick was head scratcher for day one but has a reason. Bobby might have another 2-3 years, KJ might be in his last year. If Brooks can help stopping the run and cover TE/slot receiver and hit in middle of the field that should help this defense.
        I want to see a vet DT and DE signed soon and adding Josh Gordon will make this team good to great.

        • The MaskettaMan

          The Brooks pick makes a lot more sense when you see that they have him projected as an outside linebacker, which is what he played in his junior year. He is likely Mychal Kendricks’ replacement which became necessary when Kendricks had a career-derailing 19 missed tackles. And God help this team if Wagner and Wright retire before they find some other mike and will who can make 240 tackles per season. Personally, I am hoping that Adams will be our TE shadow/destroyer the way that Bam Bam Kam used to be. I am with you on the need for another DT. That rotation is looking awfully thin, so to speak. Collier may be that guy, but there is no way for us to know whether or not he can be.

      • hawkdawg

        Calling Brooks a “fringe back-up” at this point is way out of line. It’s premature for Collier, but it is truly whacked for Brooks. You might be right on either or both, but there is no basis for that kind of grade or certainty on either.

      • Steve Nelsen

        I know we all like to judge drafts very quickly, even as they happen sometimes, but once the draft is over, most draft experts agree that it takes at least a couple years to properly evaluate. You can’t objectively evaluate Brooks for instance, he hasn’t even had a practice yet.

        I think it is too soon to evaluate the 2019 draft so I held off commenting on that article. But, whatever you think about LJ Collier, we will find out the truth this year. Unless Clowney signs with Seattle, Collier is the projected starter at 5T.

  20. Kevin Mullen

    Well written piece Rob, enjoyed this one thoroughly.

    I think it’s obvious they’re going into next season with what they have and maybe adding one more interior presence is all they have left. I would hope Carroll and Norton can open the playbook more to allow Adams do what he did in NY because he was a one man wrecking crew there. My fear is though they won’t and he’s sorta just “holding pattern” progression-wise.

    Any momentum for Yannick is done. As well as any other potential trade piece as we’ve lost a ton of draft capital that’s worth a damn to use.

  21. DC

    When I saw this trade, I like you felt disappointment. There have been several times in the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era I have felt this way and been pleasantly suprised by the outcome.
    I agree with your concept about the possibility of this being a terribly expensive cost in terms of draft picks should these next few seasons being derailed by injury.
    Way back before Richard Sherman signed an extension with the Seahawks after there Super Bowl, I can remember telling people I thought the Seahawks should trade Sherman and bipass the expensive contract with the thinking they have a great safety combo that makes every corner’s job on the team easier and made them appear better than they actually were. While I believe I underestimated Sherman’s talent I’m not sure that secondary would have been far less effective with another homegrown, coached up talent.
    So I think the one thing that can help me accept this trade as a good trade is if the can bring back a dominance to there secondary and again start to hide the flaws of their cornerbacks games, making them

    • Rob Staton

      I’m not disappointed.

      I’m analysing it and giving an honest opinion.

  22. Sea Mode

    Mike Tannenbaum

    This season the Seahawks travel more than anyone in the NFL with 29,203 miles

    No team in the past 5 seasons has lead the league in travel distance and made the playoffs that year (49ers & Rams once and Raiders 3 times)

    Seattle looks to break that trend in 2020

    • Hughz

      Such a bogus stat. The teams were just bad.

  23. Rob Staton

    Woke up to more abuse, the accusation that this place is like a ‘brainwashed cult’… that I’m ‘biased’ because I ‘like the draft too much’ (I couldn’t give a toss about the draft, I want the Seahawks to win a Super Bowl)…

    If you’re going to post rubbish like this it’s going to go. If you’re going to repeat arguments ad nauseum they’re going to go. If you’re going to complain about this place just because my analysis doesn’t chime with your need to only hear good things, tough.

    Honest, thought-out analysis — every time.

    One of the few places you will get that when it comes to the Seahawks.

    • DriveByPoster

      Well said Rob. Keep up the good work.

      Talking of rubbish, I had a random thought about the ‘hawks mysterious recruing this off-season. Is it possible that they are going to switch to a 3-4 front instead of 4-3?

      • Rob Staton

        No —- Pete is very much a 4-3 under. He’s as likely to switch from that as Andy Reid or Sean McVay are to suddenly switch their offensive philosophies.

    • Rob Staton

      Now been called an ‘egotistical prick’ for not appreciating abuse or this place being called a cult.

      If you want to post rubbish like this, you’re not welcome here.

      Your loss, not ours.

      Don’t need you. Don’t want you.

    • Denver Hawker

      I glanced over at FG (mistake) to find a bunch of trash defending everything the Seahawks do and trying to make logical sense of it all. The comments are worse- it’s an echo chamber of blind faith followers.

      I’m grateful for this site and the community. I also appreciate that if someone disagrees with you, there’s a legitimate exchange and you recognize sound points brought up by others.

      What’s become indefensible is that the Hawks have done nothing they said they’d do this offseason. Haven’t brought in stars (Adams at an insane price counts I guess), and yet, we’re supposed to still feel good about the season.

      • Rob Staton

        Two significant groups have emerged. The ‘let Russ cook’ brigade who want Carroll retired and everything done their way… and the blind faith sector, who believe any form of criticism is blasphemous.

        There’s very little critical analysis these days. The Adams trade is a good example. All of the Seattle media has decided that it’s either a fantastic trade or that it was a tad expensive but great anyway. Only Brock Huard has voiced any kind of reservation and he was shot down on Twitter. There’s not been anything like Bill Barnwell’s terrific piece looking at the pro’s and con’s, aside from I think what we’ve done here.

        I always thought this community and this fan base craved a good discussion and perspective. I now realise that is only the case within a certain percentage. The rest only want honesty and perspective if it’s positive to their favourite team.

      • mishima

        Enter FG.

        Comment: “Add in the TE and RB depth and this offense can be frightening.”

        Reply: “Grab Griffen and Snacks then prepare for battle.”

        Exit FG.

    • Logan Lynch

      Just a guess, but part of the reason you’re seeing this reaction is the fact that you’ve kept the content going throughout the offseason. In prior years, you would take a break for a few months and then ramp back up around training camp. The extra content you produced gave you the opportunity to analyze more of the Seahawks and their decision making. I’m not excusing or condoning any harassment you’re getting because that’s frankly horseshit. Everyone is entitled their opinion. I may not agree with everything I read on here, but at least there is a well thought out and presented argument behind it.

    • MyChestisBeastMode

      Ah man, you pulled it!? Not that I blame ya for doing so. I just now checked back in and was excited to see the response to my rebuttal. Oh well, I’m sure it was for the best.

      • MyChestisBeastMode

        Seriously though, and I’ve said this multiple times over the years, but you’re the man! My daily news cycle goes SDB, NY Times (peruse headlines), ESPN. Everyday, multiple times per day. Not sure drama like that ever gets you down, but your work is seriously usually the highlight of my day as far as news goes. I am super thankful for your efforts. It’s amazing what you’ve been able to build here virtually all on your own. Hope you keep it up for life because it would truly be the shits to not have this site up and running in the future.

      • Rob Staton


    • JNSeahawks

      Sorry you gotta deal with BS like this. Although I often disagree with you, I just want to say that I respect you as a person and appreciate you taking the time to write these well-articulated articles.

      • Rob Staton

        Thank you

  24. Sea Mode

    What did everyone take away from listening to JS take on the Adams trade the other day? (starts around 6-7 min. mark)

    Seahawks GM John Schneider breaks down the Jamal Adams trade | Peter King Podcast | NBC Sports

    Listening to JS, I think they have just come to terms with the fact that the value simply hasn’t been there for them at the end of R1 all these years. As we’ve found ourselves saying constantly, the options at 27 are often the same level as those available around 50 and sometimes even beyond. They’ve always looked to trade down. And recently, it’s been harder and harder to find the compensation they are looking for in those trades down.

    That, coupled with the trust they have in their ability to hit on and coach up later round picks, and the fact that Bobby and Russ have just a couple more years together, seemed to be their reasoning for pulling the trigger.

    JS also mentioned explicitly the amount of movement NFCW offenses use against them, and they needed to get faster and better across the board on defense to answer.

    Time will tell, as well as whether they still are able to add one of Clowney/Griffen. Also, at first I wasn’t stoked about the idea go en the amount of OL we brought in, but the more I think about it, the better it sounds to me that we bring back Britt on a reasonable deal.

    • Rob Staton

      I didn’t glean much from the interview to be honest. There wasn’t really any probing.

    • millhouse-serbia

      My biggest takeaway is from Pete conversation with King, when he said this:

      We haven’t drafted above 25 for what—10 years?” Carroll said. “So we haven’t had a shot at a top-10 pick in a while, and we haven’t had a shot at a top safety in the draft since Earl [Thomas]

      For me this was definitive proof how much they (he) value safety position.

      CB is much more paid position in NFL, but PC and JS never drafted CB higher than late 3rd.

      This also tells me they wont have problem to pay Adams top CB money. They value him more than any CB in the league.

      • McZ

        This is frankly a rubbish argument.

        1) They had two first rounders in 2019, and could’ve traded up easily.

        2) They passed on lots of viable Pro Bowl safety material
        2015 Landon Collins
        2016 Kevin Byard
        2017 Budda Baker
        2018 Terrell Edmunds, Ronnie Harrrison
        2019 Darnell Savage, Jonathan Abram
        2020 Grant Delpit, …

        • Rob Staton

          They could’ve traded up nine spots for Keanu Neal too in 2016.

          Per Tony Pauline they really liked Jessie Bates in 2018 but passed on him.

      • TheMaskettaMan

        It really is something how much the perception of the importance of the safety position has changed in the last forty years. I remember when safeties were just older cornerbacks who had lost a step. Can you imagine? Slow, small safeties? It is an absurd notion in retrospect. The difference between defenses with really good safeties and teams without really good safeties are marked, especially in Seattle where the defenses between, for example, Ken Hamlin and Earl Thomas were particularly ugly.

    • McZ

      “the fact that the value simply hasn’t been there for them at the end of R1 all these years”

      This has more to do with their weird understanding of value than with anything else.

      I think, it’s easy. If you have a single pick until #50, you have to friggin’ pick a man who is worthy the investment. If you pick guys who are fringe baclups (and sometimes not even that), they are not worth it.

      And, btw, if you just gave away your best pass rusher and have two first round picks and don’t manage to come away with a suitable replacement, you should be open to criticism.

    • mishima

      Frustrating listen.

      Kept asking, ‘If you can’t find top talent in the draft, whey so passive in free agency?’

      Poor roster management, bad drafts, passivity in free agency.

      If he can justify trading for Adams, how can he justify trading away Clark? Cash money.

    • Davido

      Not like this was big news but one thing I found interesting was JS mentioning that they had the highest medical grade ever on Penny. Back when he was drafted they badly needed a healthy reliable back then they brought him in and he can’t stay healthy in the NFL.

  25. Patrick_in_Orlando


    Anyone who calls you biased clearly hasn’t had the pleasure of following you or this blog for the last 10+ years. I may not always agree with everything you have said on here (although often I do), but typically when I don’t it’s because my own biases are taking over. Ha ha, and I know that because you ALWAYS validate your points and present a better, more well written and logical argument than my simple “But Jamal Adams run fast and play good” mindset. You ALWAYS are able to back it up and I for one find your website to be the absolute best for Seahawk and NFL Draft related content throughout the web. You have a clear talent for writing and this offseason you have hit the nail on the head throughout. So thank you, again, Rob for everything you do for us all on here and for always staying so unbiased and being willing to call a spade a spade. You want Seahawks to win every single game if they could and that’s clear. You also want for simple logic to be a part of the gameplan for the team and when that logic appears to be missing, you have the bravery to speak up and say what we are all thinking with a well articulate argument to back it up. So again, thank you.

    • Rob Staton

      Thank you Patrick 🙏🏻

  26. GoHawksDani

    Imagine this:
    They cut/trade KJ before the draft (~6,5-7,5m)
    They don’t sign Mayowa or Irvin (~9m)
    That is like 16m. We have around 13m.
    Remove IR, some rookies, etc, all in all like 24m. Cut Dunbar for 3,4m.
    Lets say we have 27m. Sign Clowney for a 20m apy, first year 14m (that’s above his current market, but who cares, we pay Irvin and a ton of other guys more than their market). 13m left. Add Daniels/Mebane/Jernigan/McDonald for like 5m, 8m left.Give Logan Ryan something like 5m to play nCB for us and sign Taylor Gabriel/Tavon Austin/Josh Gordon/Hogan/Kearse for 3m to play WR3/WR4

    We have a WR, a DT, a good DE/EDGE and a nickel CB. If that would’ve happened Jamal Adams trade would really be a push to SB.

    A defense like:
    Clowney – Ford/vet – Reed – Green/Taylor/Collier
    Brooks/Barton – Bobby – BBK/Barton/Brooks
    Griffin – Flowers – Ryan
    Diggs – Adams – (Blair as big nickel)

    With a Russ + Carson/Penny + Lockett-DK-Dorsett/vet + hopefully a working OL (Brown – Iupati/Jones – Finney – Lewis – Shell/Ogbuehi) + Dissly/Olsen

    I could see an SB win

    • Rob Staton

      Well yeah… that’s been the point all off season. How do you spend $60m and end up with so little for your money?

      It didn’t have to be Clowney either. Could’ve been others as we’ve discussed. They were the ones who called JC the priority and then didn’t get it done and didn’t have a proper plan B.

      • Trevor

        Rob you nailed the off season in that one comment. How do you spend $60 mil for so little and likely have a worse roster than the year before. It is still mind boggling really and one of the most blatant examples of mismanagement of free agent dollars I have seen since I started following the NFL more than 30 years ago. They spent $60 mil and never got one long term building block.

  27. WALL UP

  28. Simon McInnes

    I think the amount of 4-3-4 defence played last year has become a bit of an obsession with some people, who are making comparisons just current year versus last year, rather than over a period of time. To my mind, it represents lack of faith in the younger DBs, which meant the team preferred to have Mychal Kendricks on the field rather than the extra DB. The acquisition of Adams seems to be a route to getting back to playing 4-2-5 as often as in 2018 and earlier – assuming that the first round pick is not seen as a like-for-like Kendricks replacement

    • Rob Staton

      I would’ve thought a key addition at nickel corner would’ve been more indicative of that.

      • Simon McInnes

        True, but Pete does like to talk up the versatility of his defensive backs (even if the actual usage of them in season often does not live up to the talk)

      • betaparticle

        I think nickel CB addition would’ve been a move towards more man defense, but it sounds like Norton convinced Carroll that they should play more zone, and commit to building personnel towards that direction.

        Carroll specifically said that Norton asked him what he thought about keeping in 4-3-4 rather than going nickel because an LB who is playing the ball in front of him is usually a better tackler than a CB who is playing the ball in front of him, and adds more value against the run than a CB.

        I think Jamal Adams addition IS the solution to the quandry of personnel to run a 4-3-4 zone. He’s a far better tackler than Kendricks, he’s better in coverage than Kendricks, he’s better on pass rush than Kendricks, he’s got way higher football IQ than Kendricks, and he’s better closing space in the open field than Kendricks. I think Jamal is more highly rated as a zone defender than a man defender, and he’s got crazy ridiculous 33 3/8″ arms with a 76″ wingspan, which is a big advantage in zone defense.

        I believe that base will have Adams at SS and Wagner, Wright and Brooks at LB, and nickel will have either Wright or Wagner go off the field, Adams move up to SAM or WIL, and Blair come in at SS.

        Adams is good enough at man coverage we don’t need a separate nickel corner to play man defense. I also heard some stat that Flowers was below average in zone last season, but he was top 10 in man coverage, which might explain the move for Dunbar.

        • betaparticle

          oops, nickel will have either Wright or Brooks go off the field, not Wagner. If Wagner still has a heart beat, he’ll be on the field.

          • fransgeraedts


  29. Trevor

    I think the Hawks have a huge advantage given the weirdness that is sure to ensue this season. I think Pete will always have this team ready to play and united and I think Russ will be ultra prepared and have his best year yet with the targets he has (caveat OL has to be not awful).

    That being said realistically this team is not an SB contender but could easily be next year with a few roster tweaks.

    I think the Hawks are an elite offense with one weakness the OL. They have some talent but a lot of young guys. The LT Brown wil play at least another year so that will be locked down, Shell just needs to be Ifedi level. If Haynes and Lewis have enormous upside at both Guard spots and I think could be elite. The Centre Finney just needs to be solid. If the gel this year then next year it could be a really good group. The rest of the offense is still going to be really good.

    The defense is where they could take a huge jump next offseason. They will be solid up the middle with Poona, Reed at DT, Wags and Brooks at LB and Diggs, Adams at Safety. If Taylor can develop this year he can be a building block. Green and Collier need to at least show they are rotational guys. Then the need to add an elite pass rusher in free agency. They should have the cap space and that is where it needs to go not pissed away like this year. Then the other spot is Slot CB. I think letting Coleman walk was a huge mistake even if they had to overpay. The slot is the toughest coverage spot in the NFL IMO and they are incredibly hard to find. That spot needs to be fixed and almost as big a weakness this year as the DL I think.

    Both these positions should have been addressed this off season which is disappoinitng as they are really important but if they can next off season then this roster looks elite.

    • Volume12

      I was more annoyed by ‘get Russ some weapons’ than ‘let Russ cook’ honestly. He has weapons. 3 of em just made the top 100 list, no? What was meant by that was ‘get a big NAME.’

      • Trevor

        I agree Vol I think we have the 2nd best skill group in the league after KC if they sign Gordon.

        WR: Metcalf, Locket, Gordon
        RB: Carson, Penny, Hyde
        TE: Olson, Dissly

        Now the OL is another matter

    • AlaskaHawk

      I would think the offensive line will perform pretty raggedly until they gel. There are too many changes happening this year. I like some of the new players – and share concerns about finding a Left Tackle next year.

  30. Steve Nelsen

    Has anyone seen any analysis or articles about which teams are better prepared for the salary cap decreasing to $175M next year? Schneider was waiting for 2021 cap clarity to pull the trigger on the trade so I know they were thinking about the implications of a decreasing cap. A lot of teams that made big FA moves early may not have been considering the possibility of a cap decrease. I have seen posts from a few other teams that are starting to realize they have unanticipated 2021 cap problems but I haven’t seen a full projection of all teams using Spotrac or another cap site.

    • cha

      • SteveNelsen

        Thank you, cha. I like how OTC gives you an easy view of the league by year so you can hit the 2021 tab and see how things line up. But, OTC is still using $215M as their 2021 cap number instead of $175M. At a very high level, you can just subtract $40M and see who is facing some challenges (and who is in REAL trouble).

        The Seahawks seem to be in the best shape in the NFC West at first glance. It is that next level of analysis that I am really looking for. For instance, Dallas’ 2021 numbers don’t include Dak so there challenges are much more significant than might appear at a high level.

        The FA implications are very interesting to consider. There is likely to be some cuts we wouldn’t have imagined 4 months ago. And the number of teams with FA budgets to spend will be reduced. For instance, if Clowney didn’t get his desired deal this year, it seems far less likely that he will get it next year.

        • Gohawks5151

          I wonder if they are thinking that since they have some money to spend and the cap falling, that they think they can get their discounted “Avril or Bennett deal” next year? The info on JS’s slow, calculated pace during the trade has to make you think he was mindful of it. However, next years DL crop isn’t as strong. Ngakoue, Miller, Judon, Barrett and Dupree are the big fish. Rankins maybe the discount guy.

  31. Simo

    It’s very unfortunate to hear that some of the SDB readers are behaving poorly! There’s no cause for name calling here or completely dismissing anyone’s opinion (especially the host’s opinion I might add).

    I love coming to this site to read the fantastic articles and then the (usually) thoughtful discussion. Of course we’re all not going to agree about everything the Seahawks are doing, but we should be able to read and accept others comments in a respectful manner! So what if one likes the JA trade and another doesn’t like it. neither person is right and neither is wrong. I’ve read quite a few comments about disagreeing with Rob’s take on things at times, and that should be totally acceptable as well. In fact, I can’t imagine Rob wants/needs everyone to believe exactly as he does. That would make us all clones, where no competing argument is accepted.

    Of course we should all be able to express our thoughts on Seahawk matters, without fear of reprisal or unnecessary criticism. I really appreciate this place and the opportunity to do just that, thanks for the opportunity Rob!

    • Justaguy

      Keep up the excellent analysis Rob! This is the one place I go to for Seahawks content. Go Hawks!

      • Rob Staton

        Thank you 👍🏻

        • Gohawks5151

          Feasts bring in the flies too. Thanks for the all the work beyond what you usually do for us this year.

          • Rob Staton

            Thank you 👍🏻

  32. millhouse-serbia

    Al Woods opts out. Wrneed to sign DT as soon as possible because they will be more expensive every new day (will have bigger market).

    • Rob Staton

      This is true. Suddenly there are LOTS of teams needing to add a DT.

      The Seahawks have not played this situation well and I suspect they’ll end up overpaying now or signing an inadequate player. Or rolling with Bryan Mone as their primary backup or rotational DT.

    • Steve Nelsen

      Do you think they have a plan we haven’t considered? For instance, when Bennett was playing 5T, would often rotate in at DT on passing downs. Could they be thinking that 5T Collier could also play inside on some clear pass rush sets? Mone and Christmas might be adequate depth for Ford on run defense sets.

      • Phil

        I very much expect a lot of this. Especially since Pete said exactly this after the draft.

        Green or Collier will move inside with JReed on expected passing downs. Pete said that a couple of different places – including to Danny & Gallant.

  33. dcd2

    Did we really spend $60M on additions? This number keeps getting tossed around, but I don’t think it’s actually correct. First off, we re-signed Reed at ~$10M. Second, we still have a reported ~$15M in space.

    So who did we sign and how much did it cost (the cap)?

    Olsen – 6.9
    Irvin – 5.9
    Shell – 3.5
    Finney – 3.5
    Dunbar – 3.5 *
    Hollister – 3.3
    Mayowa – 3
    Hyde – 2.8
    Ogbuehi – 2.3
    Moore – 2.2
    Geno – .89
    Willson – .75
    Thorpe – .75

    That’s about $36M. Which fits with the numbers above. Hollister, Moore, Willson and Thorpe were all here last year and cost a collective $7.89M.

    So the actual amount we spent on NEW free agents is more like – $28-$30M. We also needed to replace two Tackles, a RG, C, RB (at least temporarily), as well as our DL departures: Clowney, Woods & Jefferson.

    Debating the use of the cap we had should be done in the right context. John didn’t just ‘blow’ $60M. He needed to retain or replace 4 starters on the OL and the entire DL. Reed was the only one that was retained.

    I’ve seen a lot of comments along the lines of “I can’t believe we spent $60M and our roster looks like this.” Well, your disbelief is warranted. We spent about half of that in truth.

    • Rob Staton

      Yes, they spent $60m.

      I did a breakdown weeks ago.

      They clawed back $4m with the recent cuts.

      But in free agency they used $60m.

      • millhouse-serbia

        You are speaking about total spent and he is speaking about new additions.
        After your break down they released Hunt and Jackson, Wormack opt out and Hide isnt 4mil but 2.8mil.

        So its about 50-52mil they spent.

        • millhouse-serbia

          take I dont agree with is that they spent 60mil and.didnt improve roster…i would say that they spent 20-30mil and didnt improve roster…because they needed 30 mil to retain players from last year ,(Clowney, Reed, etc) to be on the same level as last year…they choose.diferently…

          • Rob Staton

            But they didn’t retain Clowney.

            And still spent $60m.

            And didn’t get much for it.

            • Scot04

              Totally agree with Rob here. Add in an almost whole new offensive line without continuity; and no preseason. Protection could be very scary early.

            • Adog

              The concensus rumor seems to be that they offered clowney the “best” deal and he gave me blue balls. So perhaps the dline delineated criticism is happenstance.

              • Rob Staton

                Or maybe they should’ve had a better Plan B instead of, ‘damn we didn’t see this coming… I guess we’ll have the worst DL in the league then.’

        • dcd2

          Do you remember the name of the article? I’m happy to take a look.

          I’m seeing $46M in total. $18M of which went to guys that were already on the team, and includes Dunbar who was a trade and also looks unlikely to be on the team.

          Are you counting rookies and IR/PS as a part of free agency, or money not yet spent?

        • dcd2

          You’re right Millhouse. That was what I was referring to, and your number is correct.

          The total is $52M. I missed Iupati and Dorsett and had the wrong numbers for the vet min’s.

  34. Todd

    2021 season is going to be wild. There are so many good 2020 teams that are going to fall off a cliff, just for financial reasons.

    Major roster rebuilds – Saints, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Cowboys, Rams.
    Texans will need to cut good players to sign D. Watson.
    Chiefs will have to cut/trade 1-2 studs and replace with rookie contract players.

    Raiders and Bears won’t be able to sign top FA’s to cover their average to below average QBs. They might have to cut/trade a few big time players just to fill out their rosters cause they currently have so few signed. Ditto for the Steelers.

    Aaron Rodgers won’t get help from a big time FA in what might be his last year w/ Packers.

    Among the 2020 contenders, the Seahawks are in amazing shape for 2021. They won’t NEED to cut any starter for cap relief. If they resign C. Carson and S. Griffin they can field mostly the same roster. The only FAs the Seahawks might need to spend money on are TE2, WR3, DT3 types.

    Rosters in the best shape for 2021: Ravens, Seahawks, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bills, 49ers.

    If the Cardinals or Patriots play above expectations this year, they could be 2021 contenders too.

    The Seahawks, Ravens, and Bills might be the only obvious contenders that can afford a big new contract, which will probably keep prices down.

    Shoot, in 2021 the 3 best teams in the NFC might all play in the NFC West.

    • Steve Nelsen

      It gets even more interesting when you consider 2022. Will the cap jump from $175M to $227.5M like OTC projected pre-COVID? Teams that have committed big $ in the future for average starter level players (like the Jets for Fant) banking in an increasing cap will be facing significant challenges.

      Teams like Seattle which have relatively little salary committed beyond 2021 except to core players will have the flexibility to remain competitive and potentially take advantage of buying opportunities in FA.

      I am starting to see the Seahawks offseason in a different light. They remained a playoff contender for 2020 and have a lot to look forward to in 2021 and 2022 (except for drafting in the first round 🙂).

      • TomLPDX

        I think we’ll see the 2022 cap help offset the 2021 cap so I doubt the previous estimate of $227M is still a vaild projection. The 175K was an agreed-to floor for the cap but the losses will be more than that, hence spreading out the losses through 2024. Let’s hope it works out that way.

  35. millhouse-serbia

    Former #Seahawks CB Akeem King is in Buffalo to take a physical with the #Bills, source said. King played in 29 games (four starts) over the past two seasons in Seattle. Some experienced secondary help if all goes well medically.

  36. Volume12

    What happens if there’s no CFB season? How do scouts interact?

    • mishima

      Get your number out there.

    • Denver Hawker

      I’ve been reading up on this topic and the general consensus I’ve gathered is that scouts have enough film from last year on guys they think are Top 100, but not much opportunity for players to standout beyond that.

      Where it really hurts the scouting is the 2022 draft where they’ll need to cover a lot more players with no 2020 tape to rely on for breakout players.

      All in all: less tape, less player development makes CFB harder to scout and harder to draft next couple seasons.

      • Volume12

        Good point about the ’21 season.

        • dcd2

          This time last year Joe Burrow was widely considered a day 3 pick (6th round or so).

          If there is no season, there are going to be some incredible values and some incredible whiffs.

  37. millhouse-serbia

    Free-agent receiver Antonio Brown is being suspended eight games, source said.

    • Rob Staton

      I don’t think they can sign him for half a season.

  38. Aaron L


    First of all, thank you for playing Devil’s Advocate. There’s a lot to be frustrated with in regards to this trade. The price, the contract, all that could come back to bite us in the long run. This definitely looks like a ‘win now’ move in direct opposition to Carroll ‘win forever’ motto.

    However, if I were given the choice to make the final call on this trade, I would have pulled the trigger as well. I love the trade, even with the fact that we overpaid for the player and will have to overpay the player next offseason. Although I expect his salary cap hit won’t change much in 2021 or 2022.

    Adams’ baseline is Kam with the potential to be even better for the Seahawks. If Dunbar is able to play this season (and maybe even if he isn’t and Flowers takes a step forward) we have arguably the best secondary in the league, and arguably the best LB group.

    While our DL is graded as the worst and when we add another DT and likely another rotational DE we’ll probably still be rated 30-32. However, the DL doesn’t play in a vacuum. PFF has shown that good coverage correlates with improved pass rush–unless I’m completely misinterpreting their findings–it won’t be enough to make them top half, but it should be enough for the DL to finish the season around 20-25th. That’s probably around the same impact Clowney would make but for 1/3-1/4 the salary.

    The long term cost is 2 1sts and whatever else JS could have gotten with them. The payoff is at least 2-3 years of a Top 5 defensive back 7 to pair with RW’s offense. That’s championship level to me and worth the gamble of 2 1st rounders.

    Hindsight will tell if it pays off and was worth the risk. And with the salary cap shrinking next year is it safer to deal in draft capital than salaries right now?

  39. Rusty

    I wouldn’t say he has “all the leverage”

    Having 3 years of club control, maybe 4 since the second tag for a safety probably isn’t too ridiculous … that is leverage. “Come to a reasonable agreement or try to hold out which is a big LOL with this CBA”

    It could get messy, could go south … but that is leverage the Seahawks hold to get a reasonable deal done.

    • God of Thunder

      Agreed. The leverage isn’t optimal but it’s solid.

  40. Aaron

    So Antonio Brown is suspended 8 games without pay. So does this mean he can’t sign with a team until after then? Could he sign here, ride out the suspension, then play for us in the back half of the season? Russ really really REALLY wants him. Actually Russ needs all the help he can get becuase it’s obvious that the befuddling offseason has given them no choice.

    • pdway

      related – – what’s up w Gordon’s reinstatement? feels like NFL should decide up or down while he can still get in a training camp.

  41. Big Mike

    MNF booth reportedly set. Steve Levy, Brian Griese and Louis Riddick. Definitely a step up from Tessetore and Booger…………but then my dead Grandmother would be a step up from them. I particularly like Riddick.

    • Volume12

      Gonna miss Booger’s galaxy, big brain analysis.

  42. Leo's Thinwhistle

    Rob, I wanted to compliment you for your insightful and balanced approach. I am a lifelong 49er fan who had never heard of this site but was referred to it by fellow Niners fans who said it was one of the best football sites around. What I can see so far is that they were right, and that extends to the commenters here, too. A refreshing change from a place like Fieldgulls….

    I think this move is a fascinating one, and I can completely understand the two different views you all have because they seem to track my own conflicted views of this trade.

    Speaking from the perspective of a fan of a rival team, I don’t know how to feel about this. We played two ridiculously close games against Seattle last year, so when you tell me that you guys added the premier safety in the league, that worries me a bit. It’s not hard to imagine Adams making plays that nobody on Seattle’s roster last year could have made, and when the games were as close as last year’s were, a play here or there is all it takes to swing the outcome. So, based on that, I’d be feeling pretty darn good if I was a Seattle fan.

    However, for the reasons noted in article, this is a risk. Asking Adams to play like he did with the Jets means Seattle is going to be playing a very different style of defense. Kyle Shanahan has said that the reason he implemented a variation of the Seattle defensive scheme the first opportunity he had as a head coach was because he found it the hardest scheme to go against. So, if you’re telling me that Seattle is going to start playing less sound defense and start a more aggressive, Gregg Williams’-style of blitz fest, as a Niners fan that actually makes me feel very optimistic. And if you’re going to ask Adams to play a more structured style that focuses on stopping the run and covering TEs, then it seems like you’ll be denying yourself the full benefit of his talents.

    The Niners were rumored (no idea if these rumors were true) to be in on the discussions re: a trade for Adams. While I was disappointed to see him land inside the NFC West, I would have been mortified if the Niners had given up that much draft capital heading into so much cap uncertainty. Our team has one of the biggest no-brainer contract extensions in NFL history awaiting finalization (Kittle) and yet that deal hasn’t been completed for one simple reason: how do you remain competitive and keep this roster talent at current levels in a declining cap environment when you pay a transcendent player what he’s worth? You can’t NOT pay the guy, but boy is it proving to be hard and it sure seems likely that other sacrifices will have to be made in the coming years. Sounds like exactly what Seattle has now signed up for with Adams. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

    Anyway, kudos on a great site.

    • Rob Staton

      Thanks for visiting and sharing your views.

    • pdway

      echoing Rob’s thanks for stopping by. and very interesting to hear your perspective.

      As a Niners fan – where do you stand on Jimmy G? Good enough to get you a SB win?

      As a Hawks fan, I am of course envious of all those D-lineman ( that we don’t have) – and also admire the set of skill position players your team has put together – all seemingly a perfect fit for your offensive scheme. Kittle (and lots of other TE’s) killed us last year, as did many short routes that went for more than we’d like. I do think that’s partially behind why we drafted a fast LB in the first round, and made the Adams trade happen.

      • Leo's Thinwhistle

        Good question. I definitely think he’s good enough to get us a SB win. In a lot of ways I think he’s perfect for Kyle’s offense in that his strengths line up very nicely with what Kyle wants to do. In a perfect world I’d make him three inches taller to get those quick crossers over the hands of d-linemen (the Chris Jones tipped ball in the 4th quarter of the SB will forever be one of those moments I just cringe about).

        If I’m being totally honest, a lot of my optimism about him is based on the assumption that he will get a lot better with experience. The amount of hype he generated (rightly, in my view) from his 5 game run at the end of 2017 created what I think is a national view of him as having more experience than he really has. While I in know way consider these comparisons to be SB-worthy guys, it’s important to know that notwithstanding his age he literally has fewer career passing attempts than Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, and I’m pretty sure nobody thinks of those guys as finished products.

        The ACL injury in 2018 really impacted his development. Now, his ACL had to die in order for us to get Nick Bosa (and a pick high enough in the 2nd to land Deebo Samuel), so in retrospect it was worth it (says the guy who didn’t have to go through it…). I’m not sure how much of this is known among other fan bases because I don’t know how in the weeds other teams’ fans get about opposing QBs, but Matt Ryan had a massive jump from his 1st full year in Kyle’s system to the 2nd year (his MVP year).

        So, this season is Jimmy’s 2nd full season, and I’m expecting that between the knowledge of the system, the confidence of going through a full season (and a very successful one), and a summer spent working on football rather than rehabbing an ACL he will be a much improved QB. And the reason I’m so high on him is that I see a very good upside that builds off of what is already really good. Top 5 in completion %, TDs, and yards per attempt.

        Don’t get me wrong, he’s far from a perfect QB. He has at least one of those head-scratcher throws every game, but that is actually something I don’t expect to change. A lot of casual fans draw the comparison to Tom Brady, given the obvious connection there. I think as a comparison that is a terrible one. To me, he is far more a Tony Romo or Brett Favre (not in arm strength, but in gunslinger mindset), and those guys never outgrew the occasional crazy interception because their nature was to really take risks. That backfires, particularly with linebackers who he often doesn’t see, so I can see Wagner and Adams taking advantage of that.

        His arm strength is also nothing to write home about, but as fans of a franchise that still believe the GOAT was our old #16, we know that arm strength isn’t necessary to high-level success if you can make good decisions, throw with accuracy, and be in the type of scheme that plays to your strengths.

        Given his age and contract status, there are only a few guys I’d rather have than Jimmy, but again that really assumes a continued development that can’t be known until we see it. But with the weapons he now has (assuming a full and healthy season, which I increasingly doubt will be the case) there won’t be much excuse after this year. We still need health and improved play out of the interior of the offensive line, and our pass blocking was actually really poor last year (pass block win rank of #26, two spots above Seattle–but with an immobile QB…). There’s a chance that will happen, but it requires a healthy return of our center from a very bad injury, and a new RG who we got out of the AAF but who filled in amazingly at tackle last year).

        Anyway, that may be more than what you were looking for. I’m curious what your perception of him is. Most non-49er fans seem way more negative on him than we are, and the national writers really don’t seem to give him the respect I think he deserves, though it is telling that on the just-released NFL top 100 player list his peers in the NFL put him in there at #43, which probably shocked a lot of those national writers. During this recent lockdown I went back and watched that week 17 matchup and came away even more impressed with what Jimmy did in that 1st half under the circumstances–because whatever statistical ranking the Seahawk defense ever has, it never seems to mean anything when they play the 49ers, because you guys always look dominant on defense against us….

        • Sea Mode

          Honestly, I was pretty surprised to see him come in that high on the top 100 list. A non-mobile guy who doesn’t have a great deep ball either. Manages Shanahan’s offense well though with all the hand-picked RAC weapons around him. Good point about how relatively young he is in NFL years.

          BTW, here on SDB there were a whole lot of us after the draft that just felt we had no other option but to tip our hats to John Lynch for the killer way he navigated what could have been a really tough off-season: getting good return for a player he wasn’t going to be able to retain (Buckner) and replacing him with a top prospect in Kinlaw, stealing a top LT to fill what would have been a huge hole without having to use a R1 draft pick, and then trading up to get another weapon that fits your offense perfectly in Aiyuk (who most of us here really, really liked leading up to the draft). Incredible job, really, coming off a Super Bowl appearance where many teams get picked apart.

      • Sea Mode

        I second the question about Jimmy G. (I think they would be happy to deal him if a good enough offer ever came in… and the chance to sign a mobile QB would make that offense all but impossible to stop.)

        I also agree with the opinion that our off-season moves have been directly a response to what SF and ARI bring to the table. John Schneider even openly admitted that in a recent interview. We simply needed to get faster at the 2nd level, and right or wrong, have invested our R1 pick this year for a LB and next two years for a SS.

        Also, thanks for posting. It’s great to have a rival perspective one can actually have a conversation with without the usual internet name-calling, etc. so prevalent on other platforms. Welcome!

        • Leo's Thinwhistle

          Thanks, Sea Mode. Totally agree about how refreshing it is to have a normal conversation with a rival.

          I actually think that Kyle is pretty satisfied with what he has in Jimmy, though I suspect that’s based on his assumption that #10 has only scratched the surface. Not sure if it gets as much publicity around here, but Chris Simms does a pretty good podcast, and he just had Shanahan on for over an hour (they are basically best friends after having been college teammates at Texas).

          In that podcast, Kyle said that Jimmy does pretty much all the things he needs out of QB in this system, but that he is just getting started and his (Kyle’s) expectation is for improvement. Now, that can be dismissed as typical coach-speak (what, was he going to say “ugh, Jimmy, that guy is holding us back…”?) but one thing about Shanahan and Lynch that Niners fans have come to see in the last 3 years is that they seem very transparent, and it didn’t come off as fake praise.

          Maybe more persuasive to me than his words are his actions. There have been two opportunities for Kyle to cash in on Jimmy and to replace him with an established veteran. Everyone knew, and both Kyle and Lynch have acknowledged, that the plan from the start was to go through a very rough 1st year in 2017 and then to sign Kirk Cousins in free agency.

          For reasons I don’t fully understand, Kyle LOVES Kirk Cousins. Well, the summer after that first year was a clear opportunity to cash in on Jimmy. He’d just dragged the worst roster in the NFL to a 5-0 record down the stretch, and was a 26 year old free agent. We had gobs of cap space, so it would have been extremely easy to just franchise Garappolo, sign Cousins, then trade Jimmy. Not sure what he would have fetched, but the rumor was that the Browns had offered a 1st round pick to Bellichick for Garappolo when he had all of 2 career starts, so now with that magical (hey, our standards were REALLY low…) run at the end of 2017, I think it would have been pretty easy to get a minimum of a 1st round pick for Jimmy.

          So, passing on Cousins prior to the 2018 season to keep (and give out what was then the richest QB contract) to Garappolo was a major vote of confidence because it wasn’t just a “Jimmy is better than Kirk” decision; it was a “Jimmy is better than Kirk PLUS a 1st round pick” decision. This offseason is the second such situation, where the team has acknowledged that it poked the tires on Tom Brady. By now, I have to believe that the trade value for Jimmy is even higher, as he not only has a full season’s worth of work and the experience of leading a team to the SB, but at this point his contract is extremely team friendly (basically three more years with no guaranteed money). So, passing on Brady means Kyle thinks Jimmy is better than Brady PLUS one or more 1st round picks. Or so the argument goes….

          I’m curious, is there a consensus view here about Arizona? They played us extremely close both times last year, and by all accounts they have made some significant upgrades, so the main view I see with Niners fans seems to be that they are going to be a problem. Is that the view here as well? Man, the NFCW is brutal.

          Thanks again for the welcome!

          • pdway

            re your question on how I/we view Jimmy G – – I agree that he suffered a bit of unfair backlash over what the general fan community viewed as a premature annointing of him as a top QB – even though he didn’t have that much to back it up.

            I think the Romo comparison is a pretty good one – though right now, I’d view that as something of a ceiling for him. Boiling it down – I think Garrapolo is highly competent, makes quick/accurate throws, finds the right receiver, etc. But, he has yet to show me that he can be a playmaker, esp in the clutch moments of a game. They’re obviously different players, w diff strengths, but I sort of slot him alongside Goff – very capable – but in the brightest moments, they don’t yet scare me the way the top QB’s do.

            Re Arizona – definitely view them as a team on the rise. Murray just had a very good season for a rookie on a mediocre team. No reason to think he’s not going to continue to get better – esp when was just gifted a top-5 WR this off-season.

    • TheMaskettaMan

      Speaking of Gregg Williams, I wonder how that fool keeps getting jobs. When was the last time that he fielded a good defense, 2010? Marshawn Lynch ended his era right then and there. He is just like his old boss Jeff Fisher. He got a reputation a long time ago, and he has been coasting on that ever since.

      • Leo's Thinwhistle

        LOL, I have been thinking that for years. Seems as if Williams just fits the mold of what some defensive coach in a bad football movie would look and sound like, and it earns him continued employment in the NFL. Given the league’s propensity for recycling the same names, I’m kind of shocked (pleasantly so) that Fisher hasn’t found a new job.

  43. Mark

    Rob, thanks for all the work you do!! Can you make an article about what you would have done this offseason if you were John Schneider? It would be quite interesting! Thanks!

  44. Jordan

    Respectfully disagree Rob. Its important not to waste Russ’s prime and trading for a proven first team all pro safety/hybrid is worth it instead of holding to and over relying on unproven players. I usually agree with you on most takes but I think this move was worth it still (just in my opinion). Like you said, over the last few years the Hawks have not had any meaningful playoff wins. The old strategy of relying on drafted players to work out and develop was not working. I’m happy the front office is willing to change things up and acquire some superstar talent. Superstars aren’t cheap.

    Peter King had an interesting take-

    • Jordan

      And not waste Duane’s and Bobby’s prime! Hawks are trying to compete and win the SB soon. I think mediocre playoff status is not enough for this team. Relying on unproven talent that needs to develop and/or is not developing is like similar to the notion of sunk costs and the endowment effect.

      All we need next is big DL signing and the Hawks will be really poised to compete this and next year.

    • Rob Staton

      Are they any less likely to waste Russ’ prime with the worst D-line in the NFL? (Per PFF)

      • Scot04

        They’re not helping him in his prime with the 28th ranked offensive line either

        • Rob Staton

          I think it’s hard to rank the O-line because there’s a lot of unknowns there. A rookie, a player who has barely started. But to spend as much as they did this year and come away with so little in terms of proven quality on both lines is mystifying.

          If they’d gone all in on Jack Conklin for example and said — we graded this guy so highly — and paid him the relatively modest $14m a year he got in Cleveland, rather than signing a big name DE, I could’ve lived with it. To end up paying as much as they did just to retain a bunch of mediocre RFA’s though, then sign Ogbuehi and Shell, was so unbelievably head-scratching.

          • Spencer Duncan

            I definitely didnt want them to spend big on OL but Conklin at 14 is so much more preferable to the various bits and pieces they overpaid in their OL acquisitions. Frustrating.

            • mishima

              Agree. Jack Conklin locked up for 3 years or a year of Irvin/Olsen or Wright/Hollister?

  45. SpringsCoHawk

    Yeah listening to Schneider’s interview with Peter King he talked about similarity of value trading up to top of first round and amount they would need to give up from end of first round being similar to what they gave up to get Jamal Adams. While you are trading for a known high performance player, they only have him under contract for this year and next. But as Rob states, they really only have him guaranteed to play for them this year.

    When you draft a player in first round you have control over that player for up to 5 years and we are only looking at two years for Adams. Seahawk tradition with resigning players when on current contract is to wait until they are in their last year so they are really only looking at one year, this year, playing on his current contract before they will need to try to resign him to new contract. My guess is Adams would not play on his 5th year contract without holding out or asking to be traded.

  46. RWIII

    Dave Wyman is ALL IN on the trade for Jamal Adams.

    Paul Moyer could not say enough good things about Adams. He said that Adams is the best acquestion since Cortex Kennedy.

    John Clayton says that Seattle is in GOOD SHAPE salary cap wise for next.

    • TheMaskettaMan

      Since Tez? Big Walt might have something to say about that. Still, I can’t argue that Tez was anything less than the greatest Seahawk in history. He made us love the team during a time when moving to L.A. seemed like an inevitability. I don’t think that Seahawks Stadium/Qwest Field/CenturyLink Field would exist without him. To top it off, the losses just kept piling up even while the defense kept kicking ass. The losses were made more painful by just how tough the defense played only to have the offense fritter games away. The 12th Man had just about given up hope, but thanks to Tez and Eugene Robinson and Michael Sinclair and the rest of that badass 90s defense we kept tuning in and rocking the Kingdome.

      I met the man once. He saw shy, skinny little teenaged me with a camera and stood up and posed for me. I never wanted to play anything other than defensive lineman after that. You can imagine how that worked out, but I never forgot the day that Cortez Kennedy really made me love football and the men who play it.

      • charlietheunicorn

        These are the outstanding stories we all want to hear.

        I remember when, I was in 4th grade and Supersonics Center Jack Sikma came to the elementary school.
        I have never seen such a large man before in my life. He gave some speech about trying ytour best with what god gave you… A really enduring memory which is why I love the Sonics, until they departed. Also I’ve met Lenny Wilkens. He really is a nice man to talk to…. sadly, I’ve barely ever met any Seahawks.

        • mishima

          One of my favorite sports memories: Unself versus Sikma.

          • mishima


  47. Hen Pengelley

    Long time listener first the caller.

    Enjoyed the article, as I’ve enjoyed many SDB articles and comments over the years.

    As someone that married into the Hawks I can’t claim longevity or sound knowledge but I can state that this blog has help become a real fan. 9pm starts on a Sunday night can vouch for that. Anyway this off season has seemed more divisive and outspoken than any I’ve experienced on this blog.

    Different opinions are essential but keep it civil, feels like every article is becoming more fractious. Try to stay objective. That’s what I’ve always loved about this place.

    On a different note I married into the Hawks but I was born a Gooner. If you are a neutral please root for the Arsenal tomorrow.

  48. Dan Lane

    For the people that said he costs too much, how much is it worth to have a Russell Wilson on defense? That’s essentially what this is. Who is our leader on defense? No one. Mark my words, this pickup will eventually, make them better than the legion of boom.

    • Rob Staton

      Come on, I think everyone acknowledges Jamal Adams is a good player but Russell Wilson on defense!!??!!

      • RWIII

        Paul Moyer said that Jamal Adamx makes EVERYONE better on defense.

        • Rob Staton

          Jamal Adams does not make the worst DL in the NFL a non issue.

          • RWIII

            Rob. If it makes you feel good to quote PFF about Seattle’s defensive line as the worst in the NFL. Keep doing it. You can quote that all day long if it makes you feel good. Dave Wyman said by having Adam’s on the field that would increase the sack total by 5-10. So to me if that happens it will improve the DL. John Gruden said that he has to account for Adam’s on every play. That should free things up for the DL. Both in the run game and in the pass game. That will benefit the DL. Seattle’s defensive line is NOT finished. Seattle does needs to add a defensive tackle.

            • Rob Staton

              It doesn’t make me ‘feel good’ to write it. I wish I didn’t have to. It’s a fair grade.

              Maybe you should take it more seriously?

            • Scot04

              He doesn’t improve the DL. He improves the safety position. Our improved secondary might give us a few more coverage sacks; but our DL has not improved. We’ve lost an impact DE and a couple quality DT’s none of which have been improved upon. Even if our sack total is up some, it doesn’t mean the D-line has improved. Seriously does 5 sacks more show a dramatic improvement. The Seahawks said they need to upgrade their pass rush. While we picked up a great safety. I Don’t see how that fixes our weaknesses on the DL. We are Seriously thin in the trenches.

  49. RWIII

    Mask: You are right about Walter Jones. Maybe Moyer meant the best defensive player since the Tex.

  50. Spencer Duncan

    Although they haven’t fixed the pass rush, one other major weakness in edge containment on outside runs should hopefully be much stronger between Brooks and Adams.

    • Trevor

      I agree completely that was a huge issue last couple of years and hopefully these additions will really help with that.

      I think Adams and Brooks are great additions to face the offenses in this division and if we ever solidify the DL to keep them clean they should excel.

  51. mac

    I love this blog, it is quite cathartic to be able to express opinions and have other people tell you their viewpoint. I often end up hearing from angles I didn’t diagnose at the time. This off-season has been disastrous, I hope we can bring John Dorsey & Scott Mccloughan in to help evaluate players for the upcoming draft. I wish the seahawks had a docu-series on their draft, it would be interesting to have a view on their draft board and see who is pointing out the probable jags as must haves.

  52. Rob Staton

    Some context for those getting misty-eyed at Jamal Adams’ ‘I want to retire here’ speech.

    • Trevor

      I don’t take any of the press conference stuff seriously anymore. This is a business and everyone knows that by now.

      As long as he is a good team mate and plays at an All Pro level I could care less if he retires a Seahawk.

  53. Denver Hawker

    A few observations the last couple days from various outlets:

    – the same folks that argue the 1st rounds picks aren’t worth much because 1) they are late round, 2) hawks draft poorly- also seem to be optimistic about immediate contribution of Brooks and improved play from Collier

    – many want to assume Adams is Kam, but better and will elevate the whole defense- yet there is very little evidence of how Adams play translates to this system- his production was fabricated and he was given opportunities to take risks- this system doesn’t blitz and works on sound assignments

    – I’m guilty of buying theory cited 2-3 years of control without an extension as valuable in this trade, but am now convinced, it’s really 1 year of low cost. He won’t play without an extension next year. Doesn’t mean his cap hit necessarily has to increase, he can still play on the 5th year option, but will demand an extension to play.

    All in all, most of the arguments I’ve seen trying to justify this trade are either 1) contradictory, 2) not supported with any real analysis, 3) blind faith optimism.

    It’s a HUGE gamble. Adams is a phenomenal player, but he alone will not get the Seahawks to the SB. Facts remain: we have a piss poor DL, 4 of 5 new OL, brittle TEs. Also, long-term view remains a concern with poor drafting and player development, and lost magic in finding low cost, over performing veterans. I too want to be hopeful this all works out, but we haven’t been given much reason to expect that these last few years.

  54. M1ka

    I think the first point is the only true point, but also the only one needed to honest.

    The points Rob raises are valid.

    Yes they dont know where the picks will be, and comparing it to the Atlanta deal, they have taken the risk one pick could be high.
    But when Atlanta traded for the right to pick Julio Jones they had to take the risk of him being a bust. Not a great risk but i think it can be compared to the risk of Russel Wilson getting injured or something else happening to elevate one of the picks Seattle just traded.

    So they know adams is not a bust or anything near it and paid for this knowledge by taking the risk of trading away a high pick in the deal.

    I think this is worth it, espacially in their situation.

    Another thought i had after the deal: Is it possible they did this partly because they think a strongsafety like Adams can help them against the rushing attacks they are facing in this division? Maybe even more so then a D-Lineman like Chris Jones?

    • Steve Nelsen

      Adams is a great run defender. And he offers more of a counter to Kittle than McDougald.

      There is no denying he is a great player and elevates the defense. I’m looking forward to watching him play this year. There are some legitimate concerns about future signability and the next 2 drafts. But, I share your optimism about this trade.

    • Rob Staton

      Here’s a point though.

      Yes, Adams is proven. It’s unlikely he will be a ‘bust’.

      It’s very possible, however, that he doesn’t have the kind of impact everyone expects and thus makes the cost look obscene. Who thought Sheldon Richardson would be limited to gap discipline and have hardly any sacks when he came in? Or that they’d ask Jimmy Graham to work on his blocking as a priority?

      It’s possible Adams will simply be a good safety. You want more than that for what they’ve given up IMO.

      And I would, in fairness, have more faith in Atlanta turning Julio into a force with the offense’s they’ve run and the coordinators they’ve had than the Seahawks to make a big veteran addition work. Seattle’s best success stories were developed players early in the PCJS era. They have had a very strange inability to make the most of their big trades.

      • M1ka

        So your concern is more about the Seahawks ability to use an elite player, its a fair concern.

        Time will tell us how much of his potential will be used. But i think we all agree that the trade will be worthwhile if he is used to his full potential and elevates the defense.

        If there is one position where the chances of Pete maxing out the potential of any given player, i think it is safety.

        So i am looking forward to Adams tackling Kittle, Murray and even Lamar Jackson in a possible Superbowl behind the line of scrimmage.

        • Rob Staton

          No, that isn’t my concern.

          I’m joining in a specific discussion.

          I’ve got serious reservations about Seattle’s off-season and I’ve written detailed articles explaining why.

          As for the point about ‘if there’s a position Pete can max out its safety’ —- my response would be why have they just written off a second round pick on Marquise Blair then and what happened with Tedric Thompson and Lano Hill?

          • Mike

            Rob I agree with so many points you make, but I disagree with the assertion they have written off blair. I get why you’d say it, but I think that is more projection that fact.

            Especially in a year with Covid where the depth of a team will be tested as players get sidelined for contracting the virus. He is likely #3 on the depth chart. #3s still take the field, and when an injury or Covid positive situation happens, you still have a good player to fill the role.

            NFL seasons are often about attrition. Look at both the eagles and us last lear. Depleted teams limping into the playoffs. If any position group is one injury away from becoming a liability, that has proven more often than not take you out of the super bowl contention.

            And now, he has solid guys to compete with, and to emulate his game after. That’s not a bad thing. Sure, its less playing time, which is important, but he will still see playing time this year.

            • Rob Staton

              I think it’s a fair projection.

              They will now try and turn Blair into something he isn’t purely because they have no choice after the two veteran trades. That was a wasted pick.

      • Steve Nelsen

        Fair points. You have thoroughly explained all the potential downsides to this trade in this article and your SeaHawkers podcast and your original article on the trade.

        You have proven your ability to develop metrics like TEF and position measurables to help make sense out of Seahawk draft tendencies.

        Given, the regularity with which JS trades picks for veterans, have you given any thought to developing a formula for comparison between veteran players and draft picks similar to the draft pick value chart?

        My gut tells me that the “bust” or underperformance risk for Adams is far lower than the “bust potential” for a draft pick. But there must be some objective data that could be used.

        For instance, there are numerous studies showing that trading down in the draft produces more players, starters, pro-bowlers and all-pros. So that would explain the JS tendency to trade down. I suspect that a similar analysis of trading draft picks for veterans might provide similar insights.

        Is there a study that shows average career “value” (DVOA?) for a draft pick? I would think so though I haven’t found one yet. Then if you could project the future value of a player using historical experience (like Richardson, Graham, etc. but also Diggs) you could get an objective data-driven comparison to put all the subjective opinions in context for discussion.

        • Rob Staton

          I don’t know how you could make a metric for that.

          At the end of the day a rookie on a rookie contract comes with a certain expectation.

          Adams merely being a good player isn’t enough for the cost. They’ve used their top assets on him. He needs to be better than good. He needs to be the difference.

          • Steve Nelsen

            You know what. I have a week off from work next week. I’m going to make an attempt at something and post it here. Then we can all work on refining it to see if it leads anywhere.

        • AlaskaHawk

          There is no doubt that Adams will be a great safety and will improve the team’s defense.

          The issue’s are that they Seahawks have traded 10 years worth of control over first round rookies, for 1-2 years of control for a proven veteran. That will probably walk after two years, just like Sheldon Richardson, and Clowney walked. Which puts this deal in the ridiculous column.

          • Steve Nelsen

            The new CBA significantly reduced a player’s leverage in holding out. With 2 years on his rookie deal and 2 years of franchise tags, their should be enough leverage for both teams to come to something fair.

            • Rob Staton

              I keep seeing this.

              A player still isn’t going to sign a contract they don’t like.

              Adams has ALL the leverage in negotiations with Seattle. This is just a fact.

              • Steve Nelsen

                No, it is not a fact that Adams has all the leverage. Here is a recent article summarizing the changes in the new CBA.

                When the new collective bargaining agreement was ratified in March, there was a change that affected a rising star’s ability to leverage a new deal for himself.

                Under the old CBA, a player could threaten to hold out of training camp until he is presented with an acceptable contract offer. The current CBA seriously discourages a player from entering such a holdout, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, because it can directly affect a player’s ability to reach unrestricted free agency.”

                The new collective bargaining agreement makes it virtually prohibitive for a player to actually carry out a holdout,” Pelissero explained on NFL NOW. “If a player does not report on the mandatory reporting date with his teammates, or at any point thereafter does not fulfill his contract for any material period of time, he would not accrue the fourth season he needs to become an unrestricted free agent next March. Instead, Cook would be a restricted free agent, meaning the team could retain him with a first-round restricted tender worth between $4 [million] and $5 million instead of having to apply a franchise tag that would be worth roughly double that.”

                • Rob Staton

                  Come on Steve. It is a fact.

                  An indisputable fact.

                  None of these rules make any difference. The fact is he doesn’t need to agree to a contract. He can be disruptive. And he can leave as a FA.

                  Which would mean the Seahawks gave up the house for a short term rental. They either pay him what he wants or he kicks up a fuss and then leaves.

                  So he has ALL the leverage.

                  • Steve Nelsen

                    Come on Rob. I admire you, I love your blog. I’m a patron.

                    But there is a difference between you having an opinion and something being an indisputable fact. You can google “new NFL CBA holdout” and find 20 articles that analyze how the new CBA makes holdouts harder. You can disagree with all 20 analysts if you want but that doesn’t make it unreasonable for someone to agree with them.

                    • Rob Staton

                      I’m sorry Steve but nothing about the new CBA changes anything.

                      The holdout rules are a tiny aspect of it.

                      The reason he has all the leverage in negotiations is as simple as this —- the Seahawks can’t afford to lose him and waste two first round picks for the pleasure.

                      That’s it.

                      How he uses that leverage is his business.

                      But he has it. All of it.

                      If the Seahawks try and use holdout rules as leverage he will simply say… ‘fine, when my contract runs out I’m off.’

                      And there’s no counter to that.

                      ‘You have to pay me what I want or you just blew your best assets and your reputation on me.’

                      That’s it.

            • cha

              We’re talking about a player that publicly trashed his coach, GM and owner in an attempt to get his way.

  55. Sea Mode

    Jim Nagy tweeted about this guy as more of a WR at the next level:

    Most UNDERRATED Playmaker in the Pac-12 💯 || UCLA RB Demetric Felton Highlights ᴴᴰ

  56. GoHawks

    Long time reader first time poster here. Why is there reservation to accept that Adams is not just a good player, he’s already a great player, and whether or not Seattle has or hasn’t signed anyone to improve the pass rush, he will upgrade the D?

    • Rob Staton

      1. The DL is still horrendous.

      2. Adams is a really good player but for the price he needs to be the difference. It’s very hard to see him being the difference while the DL is so poor.

      • Scot04

        Too make it even worse, the price of DT’s is only going up with all the opt outs.

    • cha

      Adding Adams to improve the pass rush is like upgrading from ketchup to bernaise sauce on your ground hamburger.

      Does it make it better? Sure. But it’s still ground hamburger.

  57. cha

    Ian Rapoport
    · 27m
    #Jets LB CJ Mosley is opting out of the 2020 season, source confirms (as @RichCimini said). A big blow to their defense.

    • pdway

      wow. what a strange year this continues to be.

      Maybe Clowney ends up sitting out a year? Gets healthier, etc, works out for teams next season. As has been pointed out, he’s made a lot of money already.

      • Rob Staton

        The fact many are sitting out already to me suggests that will be a legitimate option if he doesn’t get a contract he wants.

    • charlietheunicorn

      After seeing how the Jets are becoming a dumpster-fire, I would sit out too.

  58. Kingdome1976

    We got Adams! We’re winning the SB. That’s my tempered expectations. Sometimes you just need to let the negative Nelly stuff go and just be an excited fan.

    • Rob Staton

      Sure, as long as you accept that that’s what you’re being. A fan who doesn’t want to invest any brain energy discussing the team.

      A lot of people, myself included, would rather have a conversation about how this team is being run.

  59. Kaesotullius

    I’ve been pretty down on the arguments I’ve seen to the effect that Adams will improve our pass rush. I’m willing to speculate that he will get some sacks, but it’s unlikely he will replicate his NYJ production here as the defensive schemes are very different. I’m also willing to suppose that an Adams’ improved secondary will on average give the pass rush more time to get home. However, of far more importance to a defense, I would say, is the reverse. Pass rush getting consistent timely pressure is going help out the secondary more. This is the crux. There’s a reason that pass rush is the most valued position on defense. It’s the best way to limit an opposing team’s passing attack. Furthermore, the Seahawks, at least in my opinion, had a much less effective pass rush relative to secondary play particularly after the addition of Diggs (tbh, I dont know of this borne out by professional analysis tho). In other words, Adams may not improve our secondary as much as a solid pass rush would. Granted, no single player was gonna do this for our rush. But, that just reinforces the point that we really need a better pass rush and didn’t so much need to improve the secondary. If you have 50 cookies and one glass of milk, you really need more milk, not more cookies.

  60. Spireite_Seahawk

    Probably best not to be quoting Cowherd if you want to continue your misery party. A few weeks a go he said the Seahawks were the number one team on the NFC.

    • Murphy

      Come on man. I’m an eternal optimist and the fan in me would love to read about how this will guarantee us back to back super bowls but the arguments on this blog are well thought out and defended. Dismissing them as a misery party is condescending and beneath this place.

      • Rob Staton

        People don’t like it Murphy.

        They just want reassurance that their favourite team is doing everything right.

        They don’t want detailed analysis unless it confirms that everything is fine.

        They start using words like ‘misery party’ when the analysis doesn’t go the way they want it.

        I thought this community would never go down that route but I was wrong.

        • Murphy

          For what it’s worth, I don’t comment a lot but I come here daily because you provide the most consistently well thought out analysis I have seen (regardless of team or sport).

          • Rob Staton

            Thank you 👍🏻

    • McZ

      …because of their QB.
      And then, he celebrated a slugfest comparing Wilson’s supporting cast to Rodgers. He picked GB, because Packers fans and the media are painting that picture of what-if-Aaron-got-any-support.

      Both OL and DL are bad. The moves made are just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks. This has nothing to do with evidence driven team building.

  61. M

    It’s an interesting question as to how to value the Adams trade.

    Off the top of my head, I’d probably begin with the following approach.

    1) Using the trade value chart, find the value of the number 6 overall pick against the value of two #1s and the round 3 pick (at Seattle’s average draft position over the last 3 years or so; not adjusting for the 2022 value of the second #1; assuming MacDougald and the 4th round pick are a wash).

    #6 pick=1600 points

    #23-24 pick = 750 (times 2)=1500
    #87-88 pick = ~150
    Total point value of picks=~1650

    Interestingly, this is pretty close in terms of value. To Rob’s point above on downside risk, if the average position of the picks given up is #12 (as opposed to #23-24), then the unadjusted deal value would be a net negative 1000+ or a 1st round #15 pick.

    2) The above needs to be adjusted for the fact that Adams is a 24 year old All Pro that projects to be a multiple time All Pro and not just a #6 pick.

    Using the National Football Post, the probability of a multiple time All Pro in the #6 draft range is ~10%. The approximate corresponding cumulative (multiple time All-Pro) probability of the draft picks Seattle gave up is ~5%. This clearly the impetus for the deal–Seattle essentially locks in a 80%+ probability (adjusting for performance and injury risk) of an All-Pro while if they hadn’t done the deal and kept the picks that probability would be~5%.

    How to value all this? It would be great if there were an accurate win shares/war stats for the NFL but from the rough analyses I’ve seen, QBs max out at the 5+ win share range (Mahomes, Wilson) while defensively, Aaron Donald comes in at ~2 and Bobby Wagner at 1.1. Assuming Adams at an All-Pro level is worth .8 to 1.0 win share then the net probability adjusted win share would be ~..6 to.75 (or somewhat less ~(.5-.65) if accounting for some non-All Pro win share for the picks)

    3) The equation also needs to be adjusted for the salary cap impact differential. If Seattle kept the picks, they would have had the opportunity to bring in a free agent in the $10-12MM range (an estimate). Using a crude (b/c I don’t think it’s actually linear) salary ratio of this compared to Adam’s $20MM salary * 1.0 win share, means the Seahawks gave up approximately .5-.6 in win share in opportunity cost.

    4) Another key adjustment is the championship window argument. If Seattle kept the picks, the value of the picks would likely be at least 2-3 years out whereas with Adams they receive the value in Wilson’s peak prime. This again is hard to value but clearly holds significant value.

    This is mostly stream of consciousness so I could well be missing something but the way I sum it up the deal is 1) though 3) can be viewed as mostly a wash to slightly + but the alignment of player primes to optimise a championship window is what makes the deal work.

    As far as risks, there are many–Adams underperforming or going Harvin, falling on the wrong side of those 11 one possession games, injuries to key players etc. but there’s also the risk of not taking a risk and if you’re after the Lombardi you likely don’t get there without taking risks and being right about them.

    Let’s hope the Seahawks are right.

    • cha

      Interesting thoughts M but there is no mention of the roster construction or positional value. I’m not sure you can analyze this trade absent those considerations.

      1) The Seahawks have serious questions on both their OL and DL. Yet they chose to spend their most prized assets on a player at a position they were adequately stocked at.

      2) Acquiring Adams means Blair is benched. Sure he’ll play a bit somewhere, but you can include a 2nd round pick they spent on Blair as part of the trade equation since they won’t get max value from that pick. Which only makes this trade more expensive.

      3) Two first round picks is a huge price to pay for a safety. You spend that kind of capital on a player who plays a position that can consistently alter a game for you. LT, QB, DL.

      4a) The Seahawks have tremendous future needs. LT, RT, DT, DE particularly. Brown is 35. Shell and Obguehi aren’t signed to long term contracts and aren’t all that great anyway. Reed is only signed for 2 years and already has a serious strike on his record. Irvin and Mayowa are stopgaps. The rookie DEs are unproven and Collier and Green have shown very little to warrant long term faith. And with this single trade they’ve handcuffed their ability to either acquire cheap young talent, or make a splashy trade at a position of real need.

      4b) Right about the time those guys are retiring or demanding new contracts, you’ll have just inked Adams to a ridiculously high contract, because the only thing worse than investing two first round picks on a guy, is investing two first round picks and watching him walk away. So now you’ve got less cap money to go around. And your two best chances to acquire cheap young talent aren’t on your roster because you’ve traded them away.

      If this exact trade were made after a more productive offseason (addressing the pass rush primarily), this trade would be much easier to take. You could argue that Adams is a weapon that puts you over the top. But with this team, he’s a nice complement. He’ll have a lot of tackles after the WRs have crossed the first down marker because the QB has had all day to find an open man.

    • Steve Nelsen

      M I like your Stream of consciousness thoughts about how to objectively value this trade (and potentially others in future as it is clear JS likes to trade 1st-round picks).

      I started some research on this very topic today and found that Pro Football Reference has an “AV” they attach to both players and draft picks. I’ll see if that tool would work in the context of this trade and post what I learn.

    • fransgeraedtss


  62. cha

    Ian Rapoport
    The #Lions have placed QB Matthew Stafford on the COVID-19 list, per the wire.
    1:27 PM · Aug 1, 2020

  63. MyChestisBeastMode

    Shout-out to my cousin, a Pasco, WA native who grew from being a tall goofy kid and into a mountainous and anything but goofy young man. 6’6″ 308 OL at small school, Minot State, with an article on him as a draft prospect. This is a “getting to know you” piece thats more background than real analysis. Still, just have to say to this community that I’m damn proud of this youngster for working his tail off and gaining recognition as potentially being NFL worthy.

    • Aaron

      I just left Minot after being stationed there for 3 years…small world. All the best to your cousin.

    • Volume12

      That’s awesome man. Congrats.

      ‘I’m damn proud’ rightfully so.

      And draftdiamonds do great work. They got a talented group over there that grind the tape. And that’s an understatement. If your worth anything on draft twitter, draftdiamonds is typically responsible for that.

  64. charlietheunicorn

    Something to keep an eye on for the next week or so…

    “Eight defensive tackles now opting out of 2020 season” ~

    .. a veteran DT might not be as easy to acquire as in normal years.

  65. Baldwin

    We couldn’t stop the run or cover TEs all year and it cost us. We looked old/slow with 29 yr old McDougal, 31 yr old Wright and 29 yr old Kendrick. Love those guys but they’re getting older and slower.

    PC/JS clearly think the priority is to get faster/harder on D with Adams, Brooks and I agree.

    • Rob Staton

      They said the priority was the pass rush.

    • Denver Hawker

      They also added Irvin (32) and Mayowa (29). I don’t think age was the issue they’re trying to solve.

  66. millhouse-serbia

    Shaquem is doing drills with DL.

    • Rob Staton

      Which shows how serious the problem is.

    • Davido

      With all the LB depth we have now it should be his best shot to make the roster as a rotational passrusher and special teamer.

      • Rob Staton

        I think we saw at the end of last year that as a rotational rusher he simply isn’t cut out for it.

        Special teams? He has a shot.

        • Davido

          Agree, he shouldn’t be your number 1 option for rotational passrushing. Maybe for some 3rd and 30 situations :D. Tbf he produced more than many others when he came in.

          • Rob Staton

            I think I read somewhere that his PFF ratings were abysmal.

            He was exhibit B on why their pass rush was so bad (exhibit A was Ziggy Ansah).

    • cha

      They’re coaching him up.

      “So, when you are squaring off with an OT who is 75lbs heavier than you, the bull rush won’t work.”

      How many times did we see him just plow right into an OL last year and get stoned?

  67. Sea Mode

    Just a rumor based on a ‘source’, but it’s out there none the less…

    • millhouse-serbia

      I looked at our cap space (after at least a month)…

      We are at 14mil, but if we count PS + IR and money for Ed Dickson and Britt we are at 7mil.

      It could become 10mil when (if) they cut Dunbar.

      So if DT is 3-5mil we will be at 5-7 mil…

      They would need to create 4-8mil imo, if they want to sign Clowney…not easy…

      • Davido

        I think the best shot would be to sign him to a multi year deal which he didn’t want to sign in first place. Maybe after realizing how the situation played out it might be an option.
        Signing a two year deal would still be better than opting out the season right? Unless he wants to sit out for health reasons.

  68. Sea Mode

    Here we go again, I imagine…

    Mike Garafolo

    With all the DLs opting out, former first-round pick Robert Nkemdiche has been talking to teams. Would have to be a low-risk deal but Nkemdiche is telling teams he’s focused and healthy. Down to 315 pounds after getting as high as 345.

    • mishima

      Maybe he’ll fall through our Super Bowl window.

    • millhouse-serbia

      I am all in for this one.

      • Sea Mode

        Really? I don’t want any part of him on our team. With all due respect, the dude’s crazy.

    • Rob Staton

      Hard pass

      • GoHawks

        How come Rob? You had him from memory as high as projected no.2 pick in the draft – certainly top 10. Surely the juice is worth the squeeze if he is that talented and comes at a low price?

        • Rob Staton

          I didn’t have him anywhere near that.

          I was mocking him deep into round two:

          He was a bonehead who offered nothing in college and was at best a high risk player.

          Here’s what I wrote when Todd McShay mocked him to Seattle in march 2016:

          I understand why many people want to pair the Seahawks with Nkemdiche. From the outside it would be easy to assume they’re a team intent on taking major risks. The reality is a little bit different and it’d probably be a shock if they drafted Nkemdiche at #26 with the stakes so high.

          In round two you maybe start to consider the upside. The thing is, 32 other teams will be having the exact same thought.

          • Volume12

            At 1st I thought you were talking about Ndamukong Suh. I was about to say. There’s no way you had him round 2. Lol.

            • GoHawks

              Rob – sorry you had him number two in this.


              • Rob Staton

                The thing is there’s this thing called a ‘college football season’.

                A bunch of teams play each other and then at the end they crown a National Champion. Have you heard of it?

                One of the great things about a college football season is players who are eligible for the draft get a chance to show what they’re all about.

                And it means people like me who write about the draft can form opinions. Sometimes — and this might really shock you — a players stock nosedives. So a piece written in October might not carry as much weight as a piece written in January, February, March or April.

                Crazy, huh?

  69. Michigan 12th

    It’s been a while since I posted on here. I thank you for all of your work Rob. Maybe this has already been talked about, but I can’t help but think that Wagoner is the next to go. I think the Brooks pic was a way to replace him. If Brooks shows anything at all they may try to reclaim some pics as well as shed some salary off the cap by moving Wagoner. Hope I’m wrong and you guys have already intelligently discussed this since the Adams trade, but I wouldn’t put it passed the Seahawks to make a move like that.

    • Rob Staton

      The Seahawks see Bobby as their Wilson on defense. There’s a reason they gave him $18m a year and it wasn’t to cut him two years later. They see him as crucial to their locker room, their culture and their future success.

      They can’t cut him or trade him this year because it would cost them $22m for him to play somewhere else. Next year they would only save $10m by moving him. The only real chance they have to move on is 2022. They can make a call on that then — but that’s the absolute earliest they’ll move on from Wagner.

      The Brooks pick is a KJ Wright replacement. Maybe one day he replaces Wagner too — but initially it’s planning for life after Wright.

  70. Rob Staton

    I’ve just rewatched this:

    Don’t think people readily remember that San Francisco led 10-0 and had the ball. They were coasting.

    Then Jadeveon Clowney changed the game.

    And kept changing the game.

    Russell Wilson did not have a great performance. He was harassed all night. Clowney was practically pulling off a magicians act of his own on the other side of the ball.

    In the return game, Clowney was playing with a serious injury and the Niners offense did whatever they wanted all night. The only reason it was a game in the end was because of Wilson in the fourth quarter. It was a hammering that looked closer than it was because of Russell in the final quarter doing what Russell does.

    I’m telling you now — they will not top the Niners without improvement to the DL. Otherwise they’re banking solely on Wilson being a one-man show. You cannot blanket George Kittle out of the game with a great safety. You certainly can’t blanket him and then cover up all of their other weapons. The only thing you can do is hammer and harass Jimmy G into mistakes. They did that in the first Niners game last season and he was bad. In the second game he was 18/22 with no turnovers for nearly 300 yards.

    It’s as simple as this — improve the DL or face the consequences in the division.

    Same for Goff too.

    • millhouse-serbia

      I totaly accept your opinion (and its obviously opinion of most of seahawks fans) that our pass rush is crap.and worse tham last year. I dont agree with that (I am much more like this :”″) but i get it.and respect it.

      What I cant understand is why you and lot of.other fans, cant accept that John and Pete think they improved their pass rush and that they (95%) wont add any more edge rushers.

      You have all right on this’t agree with them,and to.criticize them…
      But as I told you long time ago, think its time to accept that they are done with adding any mew DEs (and we should all pray that you are wrong and they are right.)

      Imo, they think their pass.rush is good.enough amd will ad only DT…(if no injuries or some really good and good edges)

      • millhouse-serbia

        This is tweet I wanted to post above:

      • Rob Staton

        What I cant understand is why you and lot of.other fans, cant accept that John and Pete think they improved their pass rush

        Why should we accept that? They haven’t even made that claim themselves. They’ve been leaving the door open for Clowney all off-season. They know as well as we do that replacing Clowney with Benson Mayowa is not adequate. Plonking in a bit of extra depth in Irvin and Taylor doesn’t make up the difference.

        They came into the off-season saying Clowney was a big priority and that fixing the pass rush, was — to quote Carroll — “definitely the focal point and it has to be”. They failed to properly judge the Clowney situation, got caught out and then had to resort to damage limitation by going after players like Mayowa, then aggressively trading up in the draft for Taylor. They failed to do what they set out to do and have been trying to claw it back ever since.

        I shouldn’t have to ‘explain’ myself for those views. It’s stating the obvious.

        You saying repeatedly ‘they think their pass rush is good enough’ doesn’t make it true. They’ve tried to make the most of a badly handled situation and they’re left with what they have which is the worst DL in football. Signing a $2-3m defensive tackle won’t change that either.

        • millhouse-serbia

          Ok I will try to explain why i think they are “ok” with their current edge rushers…

          I think if they feel the same (or evene close) as you about their edge rushers they would do whatever they can to bring new players in…we saw from Adams trade they are not afraid to give high picks for proven player(i am sure there is lot of teams who.would give good to great edge rushers for that compensation)…I think there is no way that they think pass rush will be reason why they cant win SBn, and not to do something about it…I.mean it will be like shooting in your own leg…

          For me, doing nothing is proof they are satisfied with current situation…

          • Rob Staton

            But they can’t do ‘whatever it takes’ to bring in edge rushers. It’s August the 2nd. The time to go and fix your pass rush was March. As soon as all the options disappeared and they hung around waiting and waiting for Clowney… seemingly thinking he’d just accept their best offer eventually… they ran out of options. All they could do is scrape around to see what was left. Thus — Mayowa comes in for $3m. No way on earth did they sit down and think after adding Mayowa and Irvin, “right we’ve sorted that issue, we’re better now”. They misjudged the Clowney situation and then were forced to find cheap ‘place filler’ replacements so they could keep just enough cap room available in case Clowney changed his mind.

            He never did.

            And then they had to fill out their roster. And now here they are… with a few million to spend and only two realistic options out there to do anything to help the pass rush are still Clowney and Everson Griffen.

            That’s all they can do and he doesn’t seem any nearer to accepting his situation and for all we know he might sit out the season.

            Their inactivity is no indication of any satisfaction with the situation. There is NO WAY they think they sorted this out or that this is good enough. They failed in March and have been trying to patch things up since.

            With respect Millhouse I don’t really know why we’re having the discussion. It’s fairly obvious they didn’t fix the pass rush and they’ve never claimed that they had. It’s pretty clear they have enough room to try and do something else it’s just a case of what happens with the respective markets out there. We’ve been through this a lot by now. I’ve even said myself that I doubt the market affords them an opportunity to do much more. But we’ll see. This aint good enough currently though. They know. We know it. PFF knows it. Everyone knows it.

          • millhouse-serbia

            I mean if.they think like you (about their pass.rush), if they think pass.rush will be reason why they cant win SB this year, and they are doing nothing about it, they both deserve to get fired immediately…

            imo it would be like they are consciously waisting Russ prime, with giving up future two first round picks.

            • millhouse-serbia

              Ok no.need to talk about it anymore.
              I just want to explain why I think what I think.
              Hope for the best in next season. 🙂

            • Rob Staton

              This is too simplistic a way of reading the situation though Millhouse.

              For example… (I feel like I’ve had this conversation 100 times)

              They said keeping Clowney was a priority. I think they believed they had a good gauge of his market and knew teams wouldn’t be offering him big money. So I think they couched that offer sufficiently believing that, after a few days, Clowney would accept it was his best opportunity and would be back in Seattle.

              The problem is he didn’t do that. He turned the tides on them and decided not to sign anywhere. And by the time that was a reality — all the other players had gone. Calais, Fowler, Quinn. So they were caught in this weird situation. They had to save money in case Clowney changed his mind because he was their guy. At the same time, they had to do something. So they added Mayowa. He was a $3m player. Wasn’t going to stop them signing Clowney. It was cheap insurance, essentially.

              Yet the Clowney stalemate didn’t end. Suddenly we’re talking about him holding out until camp. There’s now no end in sight.

              So they ended up trading up for Darrell Taylor too because again — they missed out on the options in FA. Felt they had to start doing something. Had to make things happen.

              This was all damage limitation because they believed — IMO — that the first domino to fall would be Clowney and that would set up the rest of their off-season. The stalemate instead plunged them into a situation where they could neither fully move on but also had to do something. The end result is wholly unsatisfying, they haven’t properly addressed their off-season need and the Jamal Adams trade is probably a desperate attempt to try and improve the defensive unit because they know it’s not good enough generally.

              The problem is the D-line still isn’t good enough. That’s why PFF say it’s the worst in the league.

              But they have never suggested this D-line is better than last year, or even adequate. They’ll talk it up because they have no choice. They’ll leave the door open for Clowney and/or Griffen because they have no choice. But they will be well aware that if there’s a unit most likely to hold them back in 2020 it’s the DL. That’s just stating the obvious. And every time they get asked about Clowney or other moves they always leave the door open. Doesn’t mean anything will happen there but there’s no way they’ve got their feet up thinking this is job done for the DL.

              • Kingdome1976

                It doesn’t matter what they said. It’s what they do. Too much stock.

                • Rob Staton

                  What they say does matter when they explicitly call something a ‘focal point’ and a ‘priority’ because we can then judge how they went about addressing it.

  71. Kev

    How valuable was Kam Chancellor in his prime? Jamal Adams has accomplished more in his first 3 years than Chancellor. Adams > Chancellor and I think he helps massively, especially in the run game.

    • Rob Staton

      Jamal Adams is not better than Kam Chancellor.

      He might be considered better than him one day.

      But please, can people show some respect to a Seahawks legend and potential future Hall of Fame player rather than suggesting a guy who has a few more stats because he played for Todd Bowles and Gregg Williams is ‘better’ than Kam?

      And nobody is saying Adams won’t help. Of course he will help.

      He is not going to tilt the balance much at all though if the DL is the worst in the league.

      • Frank

        It’s not disrespect to say Adams is better than Chancellor. Their are reasons Adams was a top ten pick and Kam was mid- later rounds. Kam was a perfect fit as a compliment to Earl Thomas, and he deserves that future gold jacket. If Adams play doesn’t drop off, and he can manage to be on a team that wins a Super Bowl he will to. As a pure draft analyst, looking purely at the players abilities and not their history, I’d be hard pressed to believe deep down that Adams wouldn’t be the better prospect. I see him more as an equal to Earl Thomas or Troy Polamalu.

        Too invest the type of capital JS/PC did they think he’s a transformative talent, and apparently they are higher on Taylor, and Robinson than we give them credit for. As a fan of drafting and team building in general, I’d actually like to see the guys that get drafted and acquired see the field before claiming it’s the worst line in the NFL for 2021. I personally don’t think PC or JS give a single care about what people think of their plan, just that they have one, and you know when you see it, not when you want to know.

        • Rob Staton

          So is Ryan Tannehill better than Russell Wilson then?

          Because there are reasons Tannehill was top-12 and Wilson was round three right?

          What about Richard Sherman, another fifth rounder? Never going to be better than Justin Gilbert?

          Kam Chancellor, in my opinion, deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. You get to call Jamal Adams ‘better’ when he’s achieved half of what Kam has. Chancellor was the culture in Seattle, with Marshawn. He was the LOB. He impacted games in ways a mere statistic will never show. Doesn’t mean Adams won’t be better eventually. But currently? No. He wouldn’t even make that claim himself.

          As for this:

          I personally don’t think PC or JS give a single care about what people think of their plan, just that they have one, and you know when you see it, not when you want to know.

          It’s the kind of bilge I’ve read far too often on here this summer. You’re basically saying don’t have an opinion because ‘the team knows best’.

          No. Get stuffed. I’m going to have an opinion. I’m going to put a lot of time and effort together forming that opinion. If you don’t like it because you want to be a cheerleading fan that’s fine. Do what you’ve got to do. But do us the courtesy and respect of not diminishing well thought out opinions by appealing to authority. We discuss things in the community. We challenge when things need to be challenged. End of.

      • Kev

        As a big time Seahawks fan and football fan I disagree. Bucky Brooks just called Adams “Kam Chancellor Plus.” He’s just as good in the run game and better in coverage. Im not the only one here who thinks this. Did u see that play where he bullied Saquon Barkley into Daniel Jones and then promptly stripped him and returned it for six? Yes, safety probably was not out biggest need, but Adams is absolutely a difference maker. I think Irvin, Mayowa, Reed, Robinson, and Taylor can get it done on 3rd down also.

        • Rob Staton

          1. One opinion by Bucky Brooks isn’t a counter to any of the points I’ve made.

          2. Yes I saw the play with Saquon. Shall I list some of Kam’s plays now?

          3. Never said he isn’t a difference maker. If he’s playing with the worst DL in the league though and you think he’s going to make up for that, you’re going to be very disappointed Kev.

  72. Rob Staton

    We’re now a week removed from the Jamal Adams trade and neither Pete Carroll or John Schneider have answered questions about it.

    Schneider did one, relatively unchallenged one-on-one interview with Peter King. Carroll was also quoted, briefly, by King.

    Why haven’t either done a Zoom press conference to answer questions?

    • cha

      Not sure it matters. Nobody would pin them down anyway.

      This year more than any others, their actions haven’t followed their answers – whether that was by design or by not getting the job done.

      After the season was over and at the combine they said their priorities were

      1-Improve the pass rush and sign Clowney. Hasn’t happened

      2-Keep OL continuity. Hasn’t happened

      3-Improve defensive perimeter. Spent first round pick on another LB and traded the farm for Adams, and signed Irvin. Very expensive acquisitions.

      • Rob Staton

        Yup, you’re spot on.

    • Gohawks5151

      Curious as to what questions you want asked? I mean they aren’t gonna give away their process or train of thought. They aren’t gonna announce to the world their plans for him. And like you have been saying it has nothing to do with their biggest issues. Any comments would be of the type that everyone currently has. He is a great player, versatile, happy to have him

      • Rob Staton

        I can think of many, many questions worth asking (and worth answering).

  73. cha

    an Rapoport
    Another starting QB to the COVID-19 reserve list: #Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. Yesterday, it was #Lions QB Matthew Stafford.
    1:02 PM · Aug 2, 2020

    • pdway

      so are we basically assuming that means they tested positive?

      • Rob Staton

        Yes, I think it means they’ve had a positive test or someone they’ve been around has caught the virus and they now need to isolate for a set time.

        • Kingdome1976

          I just saw a very respectable professional talk about how in China before this virus broke out world wide did a massive test on hundreds of people whether wearing a mask would help. Over 90% of the mask wearers got the virus and only 27% non-mask wearers got it.

          This virus is so unwarranted I don’t even want to go into it. Anyways, go Hawks.

          • charlietheunicorn

            We don’t know the sample size, the sample demographic or anything in this report.
            China has been less than forthcoming about the true impact upon their population, so any “reports” from China have to be taken with a grain of salt. Any type of mitigation( mask wearing for example) is better than none at all. Simply limiting social gatherings and close proximity to unrelated people is going to be effective at slowing down the transmission rate.

            Circling back around, with the MLB having several teams more or less knocked out for the season, due to COVID positive players (2/3rds of Marlins)….. how confident that we will have an NFL season…. and that it will go 16 games + playoffs? I personally am not as confident as a month ago.. sadly.

          • Big Mike

            Yeah and I’ve seen demonstrations proving masks cut the amount of “spew” from someone’s mouth by up to 90% depending on the type of mask. CDC in general and Fauci in particular have, are and will continue to recommend masks. Please just stop.

    • charlietheunicorn

      I’m not sure anyone on here would know this answer, but wouldn’t this be a violation of the HIPPAA Laws of the United States? The disclosure of a medical condition to the public? Or do they have an exemption based upon CBA?

      • cha

        It’s no different than any other health condition which prevents the player from participating in team activities.

  74. Gaux Hawks

    sign clowney, mebane and gordon.

    cut dunbar, hollister and moore.

    they probably have their eye on another nickel too (via trade)…

    go hawks!

    • Rob Staton

      It’s August 2nd.

      If Clowney was willing to climb down from his demands he’d be on a team by now.

      I get the sense that his stalemate is going to go on and on. That we’re talking about, at best, a mid-season signing now or a signing prior to or just after week one simply so he can try and boost his stock for next year.

      He might sit out the entire season as many players are.

      But if he opts to sign at the last minute for one season it’ll be almost impossible for the Seahawks to make a competitive offer. They simply don’t have the cap space. Tennessee however, does.

      And yet, as I wrote a few days ago, the Seahawks can only really justify the Adams trade if they now ensure they make the moves to improve the DL with a Clowney and/or Everson Griffen plus the addition of a defensive tackle. Put Clowney on the DL and you can see the makings of a much improved defense. Without Clowney, everything could easily be undermined by one of the worst DL’s in the league.

      • Gaux Hawks

        agree, but i feel something brewing… and i prefer clowney over griffen.

        • Gaux Hawks

          …i ordered some prayer beads on amazon.

        • Rob Staton

          I thought something was brewing when they cut Hunt and Jackson.

          Now I’m waiting for them to re-sign both for $1m each.

          • HOUSE


            You were right about Jackson…

  75. charlietheunicorn

    What they (sic JS/PC) say does matter when they explicitly call something a ‘focal point’ and a ‘priority’ because we can then judge how they went about addressing it. ~ Rob

    I think of it this way… as a Politician… JS/PC are always going to give rosy views on things, but they will normally stay well away from true “answers” on various subjects / topics. That is why you watch what the President does (executive order) / Prime Minister, or US House / UK House of Commons or US Senate / House of Lords actually vote on and enact as legislation/law. Everything else is window dressing.

    They had some stated goals prior to the season….. some were fulfilled and others need more work. There is still time, but it is getting late in the process. They definitely have had more ink spilled upon them this offseason than I ever thought would be possible.

    • cha

      They do typically outline their basic agenda for the offseason though, and follow through with it. It doesn’t take a lot of decoding to figure out what their goals for improvement are.

  76. Aaron L

    Just had a thought, what if we’ve been misinterpreting what fixing the pass rush really means. What if the intent wasn’t to create more sacks or pressure but to add more speed, agility, and flexibility to the DL. While 2020 looks to be a step backwards on paper when you add in the rest of the scheme they may have done enough to better cover run and pass with the same personnel on the field. We had big guys on the line last year, looking at 2013 our DL wasn’t as big but it was quicker. Just a thought.

    • cha

      What if the intent wasn’t to create more sacks or pressure but to add more speed, agility, and flexibility to the DL.

      Sacks and pressure are results. Speed, agility and flexibility are traits you use to obtain those results.

      So I’m not sure what you mean by this. You always want sacks and pressure from your DL. If you’re not getting that, you have the Seahawks DL in 2019.

      Where on the DL would you argue the Seahawks added serious speed, agility and flexibility this offseason?

    • Rob Staton

      Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Chris Clemons.

      That’s why the DL worked in 2013 and why the defense didn’t reach its full potential until Bennett & Avril were added.

      They didn’t try to ‘fix the pass rush’ with Jordyn Brooks and Jamal Adams. They tried to re-sign Clowney and build from there, couldn’t, and have played damage limitation ever since.

      We don’t need to try and create reasons to make it seem like this was PCJS’s plan all along. They called fixing the pass rush a priority and the end product is one of the worst DL’s in the league.

      • Gaux Hawks

        ^ this… but clowney/griffen still available.

        can we offer clowney a side letter with his seahawks friendly contact? five-year endorsement letter with microsoft advertising (see lynch/wilson).


      • Aaron L

        Not trying to defend PCJS, our current situation was not their plan in January. They should have just paid Clowney and made sacrifices elsewhere, but once that ship sailed they had to pivot. I just think they’re pivoting a way that is nontraditional.

        We know their priority right now is still to “fix the pass rush” and this will be a theme next offseason as well. They clearly wanted Clowney back but what if that statement to fix the pass rush was more of a holistic statement about the entire defense and while focused on upgrading DL wasn’t just about DL.

        Pass rush doesn’t exist in a vacuum. PFF has shown there is a correlation that improved pass coverage leads to improved pass rush. For all the pressures Clowney created last season he should have had way more than 3 sacks. If he was playing for us this year, the question of how much better would he be will haunt us all.

        The team seems happy to not invest heavily on the defensive line. Bennett and Avril far exceeded their initial contracts and Richardson and Clowney really only cost draft capital as one year $8M rentals. Jarran Reed comes the closest to big spending at $9.3M, TBD where he is next season when he’s set to make over $10M.

        This is also a consistent strategy on the OL where Duane Brown is the only departure and hopefully the LT remains that way. Otherwise it’s up to RW and the run game to compensate. Now it’s on the defensive back 7 to compensate for the front 4.

        Aside from a couple players both of our lines are All-Backup teams asked to put together starter performances. While I would have done things differently this doesn’t feel like a departure from the PCJS way of doing things.

        Maybe I’m too optimistic (likely) but while our 2020 DL absolutely sucks on paper and our pass rush looks to be worse than terrible 2019, the team’s defense will be better than it was last year, which isn’t saying a lot but in a game of inches it may be saying enough.

        • Rob Staton

          But for me the only big difference between this year and last is Jamal Adams.

          All of the other pieces are the same assuming Dunbar doesn’t play. Except you’ve basically swapped Clowney for Benson Mayowa and you’ve got Irvin/Taylor instead of Ansah/Jefferson. You’ve also swapped Al Woods for Bryan Mone.

          To me, that isn’t a recipe for improvement. It’s a recipe for Jamal Adams being a good safety but the key things that held the team back — namely the pass rush — might be worse than a year ago. Which is really something.

          And I keep seeing this suggestion that ‘we must improve the pass rush’ really meant improve the defense everywhere but the D-line and my response to that is a very firm… come on.

  77. millhouse-serbia

    Wtf? This is “Burrow is rd3 prispect” guy.

  78. Scot04

    Rob was wondering if you think PJ Hall could possibly be a cheap fit for the Seahawks DL along with a veteran Dt as well.

    • Rob Staton

      Hall has short arms which could be a no-go for the Seahawks at the position.

      • dcd2

        Vikings traded a conditional 7th for him today.

      • Scot04

        thanks. I didn’t notice the arms

  79. cha

    Precamp, Pre-COVID, Pre Free Agent Acquisition No Good Never Gonna Happen 53 Projection

    26 OFFENSE

    QB (2) – RW, Smith

    RB (4) – Carson, Hyde, Homer, Dallas
    FB /ST (1) – Bellore
    Notable PUP – Penny

    WR (5) – Lockett, Metcalf, Dorsett, Moore, Ursua

    TE (4) – Dissly, Olsen, Hollister, Parkinson
    Notable cut/shadow roster: Willson

    OL (10) – Brown, Iupati, Finney, Shell, Ogbuehi, Lewis, Haynes, Jones, Pocic

    24 DEFENSE

    DT (3) – Reed, Poona, Veteran

    DE (5) – Green, Collier, Mayowa, Taylor, Robinson

    LB (6) – Wagner, Wright, Irvin, Brooks, Barton, Shaquem
    Notable cut – BBK

    CB (5) – Flowers, Griffin, Thorpe, Allen, Stephens
    Notable Exempt List- Dunbar

    S (5) – Adams, Blair, Diggs, Miller, Ugo


    LS – Ott
    K – Myers
    P – Dickson

    • cha

      I missed an OL on the list. Maybe Kyle Fuller for versatility or Champion at OT as a stash.

      DT and CB depth aren’t great. Looking for veteran additions

      DE depth isn’t great.

      • dcd2

        I think we’d keep Mone or Christmas for the missing OL spot. 3 DT’s is just not enough IMO.

        I wonder if we would trade Hollister for a DT or CB? Maybe start Dissly on the PUP. Carrying 4 TE’s seems excessive without DT or CB depth to sustain even a minor injury or concussion protocol check.

        I’m not sure on Miller making the team, unless they do try to move a safety over to DB.

        • cha

          Fair enough, and that’s probably what I’d do too, but it’s Aug 3 and the Hawks only have 2 DT’s on the roster with more than a cup of coffee in the NFL.

          Hollister isn’t going anywhere. And I doubt anyone would trade anything of significant value for the privilege of paying Hollister $3m.

          Ugo can play nickel, he’s just listed at FS on the official roster.

    • Davido

      I think you are pretty much spot on with this.
      Wasn’t Parkinson injured? So maybe he will have a redshirt year and Willson remains on the roster.
      I like that you sneaked Ursua in there. I am wondering if he can win the competition against Turner. Given that there is no preseason I don’t really see how he can justify his roster spot.

      • cha

        Turner is not on the roster

  80. Steven

    This trade makes sense to me. Pete’s been trying to upgrade the secondary forever by trading for Dunbar and Diggs and drafting Blair. I think once they found out Jamal Adams is ok to play with his current contract this year they just make the move. They are never going to trade for someone and extend his contract right away.

    • Rob Staton

      You mean like when they traded for Percy and gave him a contract right away?

  81. Shibu

    Looks like Branden Jackson is coming back on a cheaper deal. Kinda unfortunate after hoping they were cutting cap to bring in someone else.

    • dcd2

      I’m totally happy/fine with this deal. Got the same guy we tendered and added probably $1M to the cap. We need some 300 pounders on the DL. Cheap retention of a big body that saw 4x the snaps of Collier last year.

      • Rob Staton

        He’s not good though

        • Hoggs41

          Hopefully there is no or low guaranteed money there. He needs to be able to be cut if they look to trade or sign someone else. They already have 7 guys on the DLine, 8 if you count Irvin. You think they would only keep 9, maybe 10.


          • dcd2

            Mayowa, Robinson, Taylor and Irvin are LEO/LB’s. We need some beef in the middle of the line.

            Green and Collier might be able to kick inside on 3rd downs, but what if Reed goes down?

            • cha

              what if Reed goes down

              A question I’ve been asking all summer.

        • dcd2

          If there was a “good” DL available for $1M or less, sure.

          For now, he’s at least a big, cheap DL who can fog a mirror, and that’s a step in the right direction to me.

          • Rob Staton

            It’s not a case of if there was a good DL for a million bucks.

            It’s purely that Jackson isn’t good.

            If he was playing for free I’d ask why.

  82. dcd2

    Pete is live on youtube:

    • dcd2

      Mentioned Ugo and Blair battling for nickel spot.

      • Rob Staton


    • cha

      PC: Clearest path for Brooks to start is at WILL

    • cha

      Dissly passed his physical but they’ll be careful to take care of him

    • dcd2

      Planning on starting Brooks at WILL.

      Pete really like the comp of Troy Polomolu for Adams. Wants to ‘free him up’ to do his thing. Thinks Jamal will free Bobby, KJ, Reed & Irvin to do some things with his play.

      Definitely open to bringing Josh Gordon back.

      Disappointing questions in general. Not a single question about the DL.

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