I don’t think it’s much of a coincidence that Seattle has approached Kam Chancellor about an extension a month before the 2013 draft. Doing so gives the front office either a chance to sign him to an extension, or get a preview of what might be a difficult, drawn out contract discussion. In the event that talks are not fruitful (and so far, the two sides seem far apart), it would make sense for Seattle to consider a strong safety prospect in this draft, particularly if one of good value falls to them.
Shawn Williams has some of the best tools of any 2013 safety prospect. He stands just a hair short of 6 feet tall at 213 pounds while running a brisk 4.46 and putting up 25 reps on the bench press. He had less fantastic results in agility drills, though they were still respectable.
Unfortunately, there isn’t much of Williams to go off of on youtube and the compilation above makes him look pretty lousy, to be frank. He gambles in coverage (and loses). He is a poor tackler that plays almost as if to avoid injury. He has very few positive plays and numerous negative ones. That said, Williams’ speed and size could hold some appeal to Seattle as Chancellor’s speed in coverage proved to be an issue at times last year.
As an isolated decision based purely on my grade from what you see above, I probably wouldn’t draft Williams, though Pete Carroll seems to gravitate towards special athletes in need of coaching help. That’s Shawn Williams in a nutshell. I don’t think Seattle will draft him early on, but if he slides on draft day I could see him gaining traction with the Seahawks around the 4th or 5th round.
To date, Seattle has acquired and then started (at least one game) the following players at offensive tackle (numbers are from their combine measurements):
Tyler Polumbus: 6’7½”, 300
Breno Giacomini: 6’7⅛, 303
Paul McQuistan: 6’6⅛”, 312
Russell Okung: 6’5¼”, 307
James Carpenter: 6’4⅜”, 321
Frank Omiyale: 6’4¼”, 310
Only two of these six players stand under 6’5″. Of those two, Carpenter weighed 321 pounds (and has since ballooned well about that number). Omiyale compensated for his height with 36″ arms and a slightly above median weight (based on the 2013 tackle group). Omiyale has only played one season here (as a backup) and remains a free agent.
I mention this because David Bakhtiari (pronounced Bock-T-are-E) impressed the heck out of me when I watched his compilation vs. USC (above), and yet he stands just 6’4¼” and weighed in at just 299 pounds, the lightest out of 30 tackles at the combine. If Seattle drafted him, he’d be tied for the shortest tackle acquired during the current Seahawks regime, and he’d also be the lightest.
It might be a bit much to label Bakhtiari a “mauler”, but he has excellent hand placement, lightning quick feet, superb leverage and plays with a very high motor. He may not “destroy” blockers, but he consistently moves them. I was stunned to see that he only ran a 5.1 in the 40 yard dash, as he’s one of the best tackles in this draft class at attacking the second level. His combination of traits would be ideal in a pure zone, with enough power to work in our power zone system. Despite weighing just 299 pounds, Bakhtiari managed 28 reps on the bench press. Only 4 out of 30 tackles posted better during the combine.
While Bakhtiari is short for the position, his 34″ arms are adequate for either tackle spot. While he doesn’t handle the bull rush quite as well as guys like Menelik Watson and Jordan Mills do, he handles pressure around the edge better. He played left tackle for Colorado and looks like a natural pass protector.
He’s well spoken and comes across as highly intelligent in this press conference from last September. Some scouting departments give this fairly significant weight as offensive line can require a lot of learning/quick thinking and by extension, intelligence. He displays maturity beyond his years and knows exactly what he’s signing up for by pursuing the NFL.
There aren’t a ton of 6’4″ starting tackles in the NFL, so invariably when you find a 6’4″ tackle prospect the automatic comparison is Jordan Gross of the Carolina Panthers, a two-time pro-bowler. Bakhtiari makes a stronger case than most, however.
Gross (at the 2003 combine) is on the left, Bakhtiari on the right:
Height: 6’4½” / 6’4¼”
Weight: 300 / 299
Arm Length: 33¼” / 34″
40 time: 5.05 / 5.10
Bench Press: 28 / 28
Gross didn’t just manage to play tackle in the NFL, he’s been a left tackle for ten NFL seasons, and was a major contributor to Carolina’s turnaround in the running game during that period.
A three year starter for Colorado, Bakhtiari declared as an underclassman, perhaps motivated by Colorado’s 1-11 season in 2012. He played left tackle the last two seasons. As a freshman, he played right tackle across from then left tackle Nate Solder. Bakhtiari never played inside, but given his size, quickness, work ethic and intelligence, it’s widely believed that he could transition inside. According to Bakhtiari, he’s been approached by teams asking him about playing guard or even center, despite his lack of experience playing those positions. That potential for versatility will definitely help his case with Seattle.
Jordan Gross was the 8th overall pick in the 2013 draft, but David Bakhtiari isn’t even listed on Tony Pauline’s top 160 or even ranked in NFLDraftScout’s database. I’d personally feel very comfortable giving Bakhtiari a 2nd round grade based on that compilation against USC, but he might not leave the board until the 5th or 6th round. He might offer a great value option should the Seahawks opt to address tackle later in the draft.
The 2013 draft class is among the better offensive line classes I’ve ever seen. An offensive tackle will (deservedly) go #1 overall. There are three offensive tackles that on talent deserve to be top ten picks. There are two guards that will probably end up being selected in the top twenty. It’s as crowded a start as any, and only so many teams will consider offensive line a top priority.
In a much weaker environment, Menelik Watson would be the stereotypical draft hype guy that goes way sooner than he should based on his athleticism, as Jason Smith did in 2009. Unfortunately for him, the high volume of superior options pushes Watson’s stock down to it’s rightful place: somewhere between the end of the first round and the end of the second.
Seattle is always looking for players that could improve from coaching and have the athleticism to dominate if they achieve their full potential. They have one of the best talent developers in the business with Tom Cable. Watson fits both about as well as he possibly could.
Watson never played American Football in high school. That’s because he grew up in Manchester, England. He played soccer instead. Wanting to escape the tough streets from where he came, he sought to pursue a professional athletic career. Problem was, he wasn’t sure what that would be. At first he tried his hand at basketball for Marist’s basketball program. He’d later attempt a switch to boxing. People he met often assumed he was an offensive line recruit, and that idea eventually led him to try out for a small school football program, having never played the position. That was in 2011.
Funny enough, the college that gave him a shot was Saddleback college in California, the very same for which Kyle Long (who transferred to Oregon) was the starting left tackle. Long faced Watson during practices and recognizing his talent, urged the staff to start him at right tackle. Watson got the job and caught on in a big way. He would transfer to Florida State the next season.
Watson has a great story, though it highlights the reason why he might conceivably slip into the second round. He never played football before 2011, and he only played one season against high level competition. How high of an investment do you make on a player who very well might not be ready for a year or two to compete in the NFL? Teams that need a tackle bad enough to select him early presumably would want him to start right away.
Seattle is in a fairly unique situation. Breno Giacomini is a good player that was bogged down by penalties for much of the last two seasons. The team might want to plan for life after Giacomini, but I don’t at all sense that they are uncomfortable with him starting. Whichever tackle Seattle does draft, it seems unlikely that he’d play much in 2013. The lack of experience disincentive could be strong for other needy teams, but it is almost non-existent for Seattle, especially considering Tom Cable’s track record with developing lineman who were far less gifted than Watson is.
It’s hard to judge Watson on face value from his game compilations. He’s so new to the game that you can’t be sure which flaws to be fearful of and which to brush off.
What I can say with more certainty is that I love how quick his feet are for a 320 pounder. I also love how he keeps his shoulders back when delivering his punch in pass protection. His arms measured 34 inches, which is basically average for a tackle, but his results in pass protection were as if he had 35 or 36 inch arms. Keeping the shoulders back and delivering a strong punch inside is a compensating factor for arm length. Defenders had no chance when they attempted to bull rush him, and his foot speed allowed him to keep pace when opponents attempted to beat him around the corner. As a pass protector, he reminds me an awful lot of Russell Okung when I scouted him back in 2010.
Watson has obvious power in the running game, but ironically he struggles to maintain his hands during drive blocks despite using his hands very well in pass protection. He’ll often slide off run blocks then stand up and stop, an obvious sign that he’s not sure what to do. He’s fast to the second level despite his size. This coupled with his quick feet led many to speculate that Watson would light up the combine and shoot himself out of mid round obscurity and into the first round.
Except he didn’t. In fact, Watson’s 40 time, 3-cone, and short shuttle were among the worst for the offensive tackle group. This despite shedding ten pounds from his reported 2012 playing weight. He also measured a slightly disappointing 6’5⅛” after being widely reported at 6’6″ or 6’7″ prior to the combine. Of course, height isn’t really a major deal, as John Moffitt, JR Sweezy, James Carpenter, and Russell Okung all stand 6’5″ or less. Tom Cable’s mentor, Alex Gibbs, actually preferred his tackles to be exactly 6’5″. On the whole though, Watson had one of the more disappointing performances at the 2013 combine, especially for a guy that is banking on his athleticism to get drafted.
Funny thing is, I’m not sure GM’s care how he did. All indications from excellent sources compiled at outlets such as Rotoworld.com suggest that Watson’s first round stock has actually solidified post-combine instead of deteriorating. On the other hand, the sourced Tony Pauline only has Watson 67th on his post-combine rankings.
I suspect that Watson is unlikely to reach the #56 pick, and he might not even come that close. But if he does make it, I would be surprised if Seattle didn’t draft him. He would be one of the very best players available, he fits one of the team’s biggest positional draft targets, and he is a great fit for the Seahawks roster situation, Tom Cable’s profile, and the Seahawks’ general draft philosophy. Few players would thrill me more to see at the 56th overall pick. I suspect the Seahawks would be thrilled to have a chance at his talent as well. It wouldn’t even surprise me if Seattle traded up targeting him.
Once considered among the best corners in the 2013 draft, Jonathan Banks’ draft stock might be in trouble after clocking a 4.61 in the forty at the combine. Consider that just three other corners ran in the 4.6s, and of those three only Cal’s Marc Anthony is expected to be drafted (in the 7th round). General managers tend to have a “cutoff point” system, which is part of the reason the Seahawks got Russell Wilson in the 3rd round last year. You’d have to think that cutoff point for corner speed would be faster than a 4.61.
Since we don’t know what the actual NFL draft boards will look like, we can only hazard a guess as to how much his stock will suffer. Tony Pauline of Sports Illustrated has excellent NFL connections and had the most accurate big board last year. I don’t know how good his connections are this year, but he now has Jonathan Banks all the way down at #63, which potentially puts him in play for Seattle at #56. I think Seattle is pretty unlikely to draft a corner this early, but Banks is a player worth looking into given Seattle’s scheme and how it de-emphasizes corner speed.
Banks has excellent tape. I think he made a mistake running the forty at the combine. You wouldn’t suspect speed problems based on what he did on the field. Had he forced teams to grade him just from his tape, I’m pretty sure he’d be a mid-first rounder. In three games I don’t recall him ever being burned by a receiver even once.
Mississippi State used Banks in many ways. They had him blitz quite often and even lined him up as an outside linebacker a few times. He even returned punts. I know it’s cliche, but Banks really is a “football player” in the truest sense. No matter how Mississippi State used him, Banks looked natural in every task given.
One of the things that stands out about Banks is how quick his feet are. He can plant and explode with good short area quickness. He chops his feet very well and is tough for ball carriers to dodge in the open field. His backpedal is pretty to look at. He keeps his hips down too.
When Banks is allowed to face the quarterback, he shows excellent ball skills, hands, and return ability after the interception.
I should clarify something I said earlier- when I say Banks has good short area quickness, I really mean he has a quick first step or two. If he has to close a five to ten yard gap, his closing speed appears to be below average. That can be a bit of a problem in coverage sometimes- he’s not able to make the kinds of plays that require closing a moderate amount of space in very little time. Banks could end up being limited in zone coverage, especially when compared to alternatives like Robert Alford.
Banks is a big hitter and usually a good tackler, though he often goes for the hit instead of wrapping up, and in one instance that led to a touchdown given up on a kickoff.
I think Seattle will like Jonathan Banks a lot. Not only do they value speed less at corner, but they value long arms a lot more than most teams do- viewing arm length as a compensating factor for speed. Jonathan Banks has 33⅞” arms- that’s enough arm length to play offensive tackle. Demetrius McCray of Appalachian State has the same arm length, but no other corner comes within even a full inch of arm length. When considering the arm length, Seattle might view Banks as effectively having the coverage ability of a 4.55 player. Banks is a physical player the defends the run well and provides added value as a blitzer. Pete Carroll likes to blitz his corners.
I think a late round player like McCray is more likely to be a Seahawk than Banks for many reasons, but if the Seahawks love Banks polished skillset and feel they can afford to draft whatever they want in the late 2nd round, Banks at #56 could be a possibility.
Logan (#18) has more talent than production. It's an LSU thing.
I remember looking over the fast linebackers group last year. Lavonte David had outstanding tape. Mychal Kendricks’ closing speed was a blur. Zach Brown wasn’t very good on tape, but he had elite speed for his size. The one player that didn’t stand out at all was Bobby Wagner. I almost didn’t cover him that year. Yet when I watched Wagner, something in the back of my mind just screamed “Seahawks” to me. Trusting that instinct, I rated Wagner very highly for Seattle days before the 2012 draft for Seattle despite having him just 7th on my personal list.
What struck me about Wagner was how he played so conservatively, yet he had the tools to excel as a more aggressive player. When Seattle drafted him, I thought that he might be the Earl Thomas of our front seven. And that’s basically what he was- more of a protector than a playmaker- though he finished with a flurry of interceptions near the end of the season- including one that was infamously cancelled out by Earl Thomas.
Now it’s kind of dumb to talk about a stab in the dark that went right, much less try to build off of it. This story is really just an excuse to use a fun segue- that being how I’m getting this strange sense of certainty again. If there is a Bobby Wagner candidate for me this year, it’s Bennie Logan.
Like Wagner, Bennie Logan has some of the most uninspiring tape of any notable draft prospect this year. He posted weak statistics and even in his best games he never really dominated. Yet like Wagner, I have this nagging feeling in the back of my mind that Logan is going to be a Seahawk. Now I just have to figure out why.
I’ll get to the actual scouting report shortly, but the first thing I have to mention about Logan is that, like Sylvester Williams, his value comes from his athleticism and speed in a 300+ pound body. Logan moves like a 280 pound defensive tackle at 309. There was some hype for Logan pre-combine as he was expected to put on a show. Unfortunately for Logan, that didn’t really happen. He abstained from the 40 yard dash, and the rest of his measurements ranged from 50th to 75th percentile. It wasn’t a bad combine, but it wasn’t quite what people were expecting based on the athleticism he showed on tape. LSU’s pro-day starts later today and extends through Friday, so hopefully we’ll get some idea of Logan’s speed pretty soon.
Who knows what NFL big boards say, but in media circles it feels as if Logan’s draft stock has slowly drifted in recent months- from late 1st round to late 2nd round. If actual big boards reflect that decline, that obviously puts Logan into serious consideration at #56.
Logan has a lot of core strength and it shows both against the run and in the pass rush. This helps his case to Seattle even more, since the Seahawks biggest need is a run stuffing 3-tech that can also blossom into a quality pass rusher.
Logan had just two sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss last season on college football’s pro-bowl team of underachieving individuals. Sam Montgomery has the look of a 1st round pick physically, but didn’t work hard and didn’t produce. Barkevious Mingo can dart, but he struggled to dart into quarterbacks. When I watch Kevin Minter I see more mistakes than great plays. Lavar Edwards has intriguing measurables, but never really made his mark on that defense as a rotational player. Bennie Logan looks like a future NFL player, maybe a good one, but he didn’t produce.
The only big positive for Logan in terms of production are his tackle numbers. Playing next to Michael Brockers in 2011, Logan managed 57 tackles, a very high number for his position. He added 45 more last season. Tackles are a tricky stat, but having watched Logan, I interpret these numbers as a way of showing how good Logan is at remaining involved in plays and also how well he defends gaps. Logan only had five sacks the past two seasons, although consider that Brockers had just two sacks in his last two years. Brockers then posted a very respectable four sacks as a rookie in St. Louis.
A couple problems for Logan: He has good arm length with his 34″ arms but doesn’t really use them, typically going chest to chest with blockers much like Shariff Floyd does. As a result, Logan really struggles to break into the backfield. Rather than attempt to shed blocks, Logan tries to use leverage and a quick first step to power through blockers. If all you want is a guy that can push the pocket but not much else in the pass rush, Logan could be worth it- but he’s a long ways from being a star pass rusher. His other problem is that like Brandon Williams he is surprisingly weak against the run despite his size and strength. He typically gets blown back by double teams and rarely dominates against single run blocks. His habit of dropping his head for leverage can sometimes cause him to blow gap responsibility too. He has the talent to be very good against the run, but it will require some coaching up.
Logan has all the tools to be a successful all-around 3-tech in the NFL which is exactly what Seattle needs the most right now. He was awarded the number 18 jersey last season as recognition for being the hardest working member of the team, an LSU tradition that dates back to 2003. Logan hustles to the ball and plays smart- taking good angles and knowing when to reach up for batted passes. It’s hard to bet against a guy who pairs excellent tools with a great work ethic- even if his tape hardly flatters. He’s got his issues and truth be told, there are a lot of tackles I’d take over him. But like Wagner last year, something tells me that Seattle will like Bennie Logan a lot more than I do. Call it a hunch.
Reed is talented, yet he's more an accessory than a centerpiece. Which is just fine in Seattle.
I think it’s pretty likely that Seattle will draft offensive line and defensive line with their first two selections. However, I think there are certain events that might usurp those needs. The best bet of the bunch to upset this procession is tight end. The 2013 draft boasts one of the better and deeper tight end groups in recent memory, and that means that it’s likely to be a position of great value in the first four rounds.
There is a good deal of controversy over the order in which those tight ends might be drafted too- meaning that some of the bigger names actually stand a chance of staying on the board longer than they should. Who draws the shortest straw is anyone’s guess. I’m guessing that Reed is solidly in the round two or three range, but he could be worth talking about just the same in case something unexpected happens- whether that’s him lasting until the end of round four or Seattle surprising us by calling his name at #56.
I think Seattle is pretty open about their options at tight end. We are currently without a proven joker tight end, but it’s not like you need one and given Seattle’s extremely run heavy approach and quantity of two tight end sets, it’s not a crazy notion to have all three tight ends being of the well rounded variety. Seattle might not be focused on acquiring a joker type, but if they are, Reed is one of the best in the 2013 draft at moving around formations from the tight end position.
That said, a joker-type is all he’s likely to be in the NFL. At the combine he measured just 6’2½” and 236 pounds, making him both the shortest and lightest tight end at the combine out of 19 participants.
Reed posted a mildly disappointing 4.72 forty time at the combine, but on the field his speed appeared identical to teammate receivers, making that 4.72 number seem dubious. Reed shows good ability at getting separation. On a few occasions he even displayed quick feet and change of direction ability after the catch.
His hand measurement came in at 10″, which is on the better half of the spectrum. In three games he didn’t register a drop, though he did lose one ball from a collision with the ground and also had an ugly fumble in the end zone. Reed has a good catch radius, makes tough catches, and was nothing if not a reliable target.
You pair that reliability with his ability to separate, and it’s a wonder that Reed only finished with 45 receptions for 559 yards last season. Reed was part of a team that completed a stunningly low 58 total passes to it’s entire receiver corps heading into their bowl game. Yet despite unusual ball distribution by Florida’s offense, it never felt like Reed was the focal point in any of the games I broke down. Glancing at his game log I found further evidence of this: Reed has never posted a 100 yard game nor has he ever caught more than 5 passes in a game. Only twice (in his career) has he gone over 70 yards.
You take all of these factors together and it’s easy to assume that Reed was a victim of his passing offense; that he was under-utilized. Maybe there is truth to that. But what I can say with more certainty is that Reed was never a “star” at Florida. He has the talent to be a receiver at tight end, but at Florida he was merely a talented accessory. That might scare off teams looking for a #1 tight end, but Seattle is exactly the kind of place that would welcome Reed’s combination of talent and under-utilization. Our team is loaded with talent at receiver and tight end- talent that is overlooked because the individuals within it don’t post 1000 yard seasons. Not because they aren’t capable, but because our system spreads the football for the greater good of the offense.
The question then becomes whether Seattle wants a short, light joker hybrid that won’t likely flatten defenders as a blocker. Reed’s effort isn’t always there as a blocker and he frequently hesitates like he doesn’t want to hurt himself when blocking. He can get push on a moving target and is surprisingly decent in pass protection, but at his size you would be thrilled to get mediocre NFL blocking from him.
If Seattle just wants to add more receiving options for Russell Wilson and is okay with acquiring more of a specialist than a starter, then Reed could be a very nice addition for our team. He is the most natural joker type in this draft, he runs excellent routes, separates, improvises well, and has excellent hands. Seattle could certainly do far worse, especially if the board is fighting them at offensive and defensive line.
I’ve had a few people ask me for a review of San Diego State’s Leon McFadden. Usually when people bring players to my attention I end up as impressed as they were. Not this time.
First I should be clear, McFadden is not a bad prospect by any means. But after watching the available game compilations (BYU, Boise St.), I am pretty confident that he’s not what Seattle is looking for. In two full games, I didn’t see a single “wow” play; the closest being a routine looking pass defensed.
The shortest corner that Seattle has acquired during the Pete Carroll era is Walter Thurmond who stood 5’10¾”. McFadden checks in at 5’09⅝”, more than an inch shorter than Thurmond. Only 4 out of 30 corners measured shorter at the combine, and none of them are expected to be drafted high in the draft. Seattle has made it no secret that they prefer big corners, and McFadden certainly doesn’t meet that criteria.
McFadden possesses decent bulk for his height, and tackles fairly well. He’s not particularly physical though and can at times struggle off blocks. There was one play in particular where a quarterback ran past the line of scrimmage at the 16 yard line and ended up scoring a touchdown before McFadden fought off a downfield block in the end zone. He struggled with blocks in other spots too, but that particular play was pretty damning.
In terms of coverage, San Diego State played him outside and mostly in cushion coverages. His man coverage was competent but he seemed happy to stand completely still in zone- a pretty huge contrast to Robert Alford who was not only far better in man coverage, but also remained active and moved with a plan in zone coverages.
His field speed is decidedly ordinary and at the combine he clocked a very average 4.54. For comparison’s sake, Byron Maxwell ran an official 4.43 at his combine at 6’1″ 202, and Jeremy Lane clocked 4.48 at his pro-day while standing 6’0″ even. If Seattle is going to take a corner with 4.54 speed, he’d better stand at least 6’3″ or weigh 220 pounds. In other words, his speed further disappoints because small players are supposed to be faster to help compensate for their size disadvantages.
There are no certainties in life, but I would be pretty surprised if Seattle selected Leon McFadden. With below average height and so-so athleticism (including one of the lesser vertical jumps), he’s not a high upside player and he doesn’t really have the tools or even the press coverage experience to satisfy the Seahawks’ requirements. A team that is willing to overspend on a safe, well rounded corner will select McFadden before Seattle’s 3rd round pick rolls around- another reason why this pick feels unlikely.
If there is a story to tell with the 2013 running back class, it’s the high risk / high reward running back. Marcus Lattimore might be the next Willis McGahee, a terrific talent that had a once bright NFL future cast into uncertainty with an awful injury during his final season. Knile Davis seemed like a budding megastar in 2010 but missed 2011 from injury and disappointed in 2012. Christine (pronounced “Kristin”) Michael is a former 5-star recruit that battled injuries and coaches over the last 3 seasons. While each have tantalizing upside, each could end up leaving the board in the middle rounds despite that.
While I would have personally preferred to draft a receiver instead of trading for Harvin and all the future cap space that went with it, I love the trade for all the extraneous benefits it provides. It finally gives the team an “out” for Leon Washington. If the Hall of Fame takes kick returners, Washington is in it, but I never really felt comfortable with the crunch Washington put on our roster by essentially committing one of our few running back spots on someone who was essentially just a special teams player. Harvin made Washington expendable, and with it our team finally has a 3rd spot open for a real running back.
I suspect that “plan A” for this roster spot is a diverse and explosive talent like Denard Robinson. I’ve always thought that Robinson would be an amazing situational running back on day one, with the upside of being a return man or receiver down the road. Seattle has met with Robinson and he’s one of the few players I can guarantee our team covets. If Robinson isn’t in the cards though, it wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle gave a long look at Christine Michael.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCVqxFeWFoU
Last year I made the mistake of comparing Robert Turbin to Marshawn Lynch. Both are big, fast, physical backs, but Turbin is more of a home run hitter than an evader. The zig-zag agility and light feet that Marshawn Lynch runs with are extremely rare for any back, much less for one with his power and determination. With that in mind, I wouldn’t compare Michael to Lynch either- although I do think his game compares very well to former Seahawk Ahman Greene. Green was 6’0″, 220 pounds, and ran a ridiculous 40 time unofficially. Michael is 5’10”, 220 pounds, and ran an official 4.54. On tape though, he is explosive and has the field speed of a 4.4s type player.
There are plays in every compilation I watched where Michael “wows” with his acceleration through the hole. This play against Mississippi State, for example (this video also included a Ryan Swope sighting). Michael relies on that burst so that he can be more patient waiting for the hole to develop, knowing that he has the burst to react rather than being forced to anticipate.
How explosive is Michael? Vertical jump is measured in part because it is often a strong indicator of short area burst. At the combine Christine Michael posted a 43″ vertical. That is not a typo. He did that in a 220 pound body. Unsurprisingly, his cone drill and 20 yard shuttle both ranked #1 among all running backs, despite posting an official forty time that was middle of the pack.
As you might expect, the speed, size, and power that Michael brings makes tackling him difficult, as if trying to catch a cannon ball. Michael doesn’t have the lightest feet, but he has excellent balance similar to Golden Tate or Chris Polk. That balance allows him to keep plays alive,sometimes for huge gains. This combination of traits allows him to break tackles with his body and continue for yards after contact. He has a lot of power and can push a freestanding pile similar to Marshawn Lynch.
Michael has a few minor flaws. He doesn’t make the sharpest cuts and only really shines with his maneuverability at higher speeds in open spaces. He’s not likely to be more than an average cutback runner. He’s more of a north/south guy than a “moves” back. Michael also has a problem with ball security (another reason for the Ahman Greene comparison). I didn’t get to see much of him as a blocker, but as a receiver he didn’t seem at all instinctive.
Really, if we are talking about his tape- this guy should be a first or second round pick, without question. The reason he won’t be is because of his reputation off the field. He was in the coach’s doghouse at Texas A&M and he even missed two interviews at the combine because he overslept. Seriously. In fairness, snippets taken from his interviews show a maturing young man that learned from his mistakes and considers his former A&M coach a “real good friend.”
He also has some injuries in his past- not surprising given his extremely punishing style. Those past injuries include a broken leg and an ACL.
These issues press a first round talent into the middle round range. General managers tend to view draft picks as business decisions, and it’s very common to see outstanding talents fall disproportionately far because of high risk- especially if we’re talking character risk.
In a year that figures to have some very exciting options in the middle rounds at running back, Christine Michael is my favorite. He may not be a complete back, yet, but he also possesses mega-star upside in Tom Cable’s power zone running game. Seattle can afford the risk and I don’t sense Michael is a problem child too difficult for Carroll to manage.
Robert Alford is a master in coverages, yet blunders against the run
After a very impressive Senior Bowl and a strong NFL Scouting Combine performance, Robert Alford has been given some attention on youtube in the last month, meaning we can finally say something meaningful about his NFL prospects and how he fits the Seahawks. Alford was linked to the Seahawks in the past couple months, over at rotoworld, if memory serves.
What’s interesting about that rumor (which I will post when I find it) is that Alford is not likely to be a late round pick, unlike most of Pete Carroll’s other investments at the position. Alford ranks 105th on Tony Pauline’s big board (about halfway between our 3rd and 4th rounders), and pre-combine there was a lot of talk that suggested he was a “lock” for the second round. Then again, a lot of the round two hype was pre-combine when Alford was expected to run in the 4.2s, which he didn’t. Still, Alford could be a surprisingly early pick in an unpredictable corner group. Would Seattle take a corner at #56? That seems unlikely, but with needs being toned down by a strong free agency, Seattle legitimately has the option to go corner early should they choose.
Alford’s game is antipodal in its extremes- almost like a cornerback version of Bruce Irvin. He is one of the better coverage corners I’ve ever scouted, and is excellent at tracking the ball carrier in run support. Unfortunately, he’s miserable at making open field tackles or finishing sacks despite showing promise as a blitzer. For a guy that presses at the line like he’s 6’2″, he tackles like he’s 5’6″.
Southeastern Louisiana used Alford mostly in press. Alford gets a great press at the line and he can often sustain it for many yards down the field. Once he releases that press, he has excellent ability to stay in the hip pocket of the receiver. He has a good sense of knowing when to look back for the football. Alford played at a low level of competition, but receivers struggled to shake his coverage even slightly. Alford knows how to look for the football and overall I’d give him close to the highest grade possible in press/man coverage, with the only caveat being his level of competition.
Alford also shines in zone, showing some of the best polish and instincts I’ve seen in a good while. When he releases a receiver, he continues to move with a plan in mind. There is never indecision in his zone coverage. Once he drops a target, he’s already drifting to the next logical one, standing close enough to jump the route on a poor throw. I really can’t stress enough with words how instinctive and polished he looked while doing this, the term “natural” comes to mind.
Alford explodes in short areas and would be a nice tool to have on corner blitzes. His instincts at tracking ball carriers is way up there- roughly on par with Manti Te’o. He knows where runners are going almost before they know it themselves.
It’s so disappointing then that Alford struggles with missed tackles and bad angles in close spaces. In a lot of ways, you could compare his run support to Zaviar Gooden: shot out of a cannon, but sometimes that velocity causes him to blow by the target.
Alford ran an official 4.39 forty at the combine, one of just five corners to do so. Alford’s speed translates on the field, though more in the short area than in the long one. Alford nearly returned a kickoff for a touchdown during the Senior Bowl but was caught from behind by Desmond Trufant, despite the fact that Trufant was only one hundredth of a second faster on his track forty. That hints at Alford’s field speed being a notch lower than his track performance.
Teams tested Alford in cushion coverages, and to my eye he seemed far less impressive. Then again, I never really liked conservative cushion coverages and always felt they put the defensive back at a disadvantage on anything other than a deep ball, and Alford isn’t going to be burned on the deep ball. Seattle would use him in press and in zone, and he looks excellent in both of those.
While Alford’s ability to finish a tackle worries me greatly, I remember the philosophy this front office goes by. They are always looking for special players who’s best football is still ahead of them. Alford’s issues certainly seem coachable, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if he was coached out of them in year one. In terms of size and coverage ability, he has some similarities to Walter Thurmond, who is outstanding when healthy. Alford has that competitive edge that you know Pete Carroll loves. You always have to be careful when a player is linked to a team- it being lying season and all. That said, I’ve seen enough to think that Seattle’s rumored interest in him is probably genuine, even if he doesn’t physically impose the way that Browner or Sherman can.
Pete's USC advantage didn't really show itself last year. It might make a comeback in 2013.
If you are looking for a Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner in this draft, you won’t find one strictly from the corner ranks if sampled from those who appeared at the NFL Scouting Combine. Browner stands 6’4″, Sherman 6’3″. The tallest corners at the combine measured exactly 6’2″. Those players were Tharold Simon and Jonathan Banks, two great players with a pretty fat chance of being 5th rounders.
So why not consider players who might have the potential for a position switch, like Sherman did during his career at Stanford? Pete was familiar with Sherman from his USC days as he tried to recruit Sherman as a corner, but lost out because Sherman coveted a Stanford education. Say, who’s another 6’3″ wide receiver with connections to Pete during his days at USC?
The Seahawks could be a possible landing spot for Butler because head coach Pete Carroll knows him well from when he recruited the receiver out of high school as the head coach at USC.
“That whole staff (in Seattle) is almost like my old staff, even down to the strength trainers,” said Butler, who transferred to SDSU for his final year last spring after graduating early from USC. “Coach Carroll knows my worth. He went al lthe way out to Atlanta to recruit me, so I know he has high expectations of me.”
Perhaps Carroll knows something everyone else doesn’t, because the Seahawks’ scout approached Butler on Tuesday with an interesting proposition.
“The Seahawks guy was talking about me playing a little DB, at corner,” Butler said.
The receiver was surprised, but he told Seattle that he wouldn’t be opposed to switching positions if they saw potential in him as a cornerback.
“Because if you’re going to make me change my position, you obviously think I can do it,” said Butler, who hasn’t played defensive back since his senior year of high school, when he was asked to come into a game on defense to cover the opponent’s standout receiver.
“Our guys couldn’t stop him, so they threw me in there for a little bit,” Butler said. “My senior year, I was like a pinch DB. If they really needed it, they put me in.
“But if teams wanted me to do it, I’ll call my dad and have him come train me wherever I’m at.”
After all, his father is former Atlanta Falcons cornerback Bobby Butler.
I think my favorite part of that passage was the tone of eagerness from Butler to rejoin Pete Carroll even if it meant never playing receiver again. That “can do” attitude will do him a lot of favors. It probably also helps that Butler clocked the forty at 4.36, a 6.6 in the 3-cone, and a 10’9″ broad jump while 26 NFL teams had representatives in attendance. That kind of athleticism at 6’3″ could vault him from the ranks of the undrafted all the way into- oh let’s just say- the 5th round.
Once again, tip o’ the cap to Scott for finding this.
