Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 4 of 13)

Quarterback

Seattle is looking for a read-option capable quarterback backup quarterback.  In my opinion, there are only three of them among the well known names:  Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Matt Scott.  I think Smith is under-rated in media circles and I would be surprised if he’s not a top five pick, but that’s a discussion for a different time.  There were whispers that Manuel was a potential top 15 pick in the 2013 draft a year ago, similar to the kind of early hype Ryan Tannehill got.  Given Manuel’s physical gifts and obvious parallels as a prospect to Colin Kaepernick, don’t be shocked if he ends up going somewhere in the first round.

Matt Scott is a favorite of mine and I had been waiting for the right time to explain why I think he’d be great for us.  Unfortunately, word surfaced shortly after the combine that Matt Scott is a much more popular prospect with scouts and coaches than media types portrayed him, and his status has probably been elevated to a late 2nd round or early 3rd round type pick.  Unless Seattle drafts Matt Scott at #56 overall, they probably aren’t getting him.  That obviously isn’t happening, and if I had to bet, I’d keep an eye on Jacksonville in the 3rd round if they don’t select Geno Smith #2 overall.  Their quarterbacks coach is reportedly a huge Matt Scott proponent.  Since Matt Scott probably won’t be a Seahawk, I’ll have to put that post on the back burner and see if I run out of more relevant prospects to talk about first.

I like Tyler Wilson especially as a backup, but calling him a read option capable quarterback feels debatable, and will he fall far enough in the draft for Seattle to consider him?  Something tells me that quarterback probably isn’t a first four rounds priority.

After that, there isn’t much.

I’ve cut against the grain in the past for several quarterbacks that were dismissed out of hand by the majority, including Russell Wilson.  I’m not afraid of standing alone for a player I see potential in.  That said, Marqueis Gray won’t get that endorsement from me, he’s just simply not a quarterback.  Even his own team had him playing receiver near the end.  Gray had more rushes than pass attempts last season.  Having watched him some, I’m not even sure if he checked his first read before running half the time, much less a second.  His mobility looks less impressive than his 4.72 forty time as well.  And now I’ve already wasted too many words on him.  I’d put Denard Robinson in this category as well.

John Skelton was cloned and renamed Zac Dysert.  Dysert has good arm talent and can make throws from within the grasp, but locks onto receivers and has slow feet no matter what his forty time might indicate.  Like Skelton, he’s capable of annoying you with fluke plays, but eventually reality will crash down on him.  I personally do not view him as a read option capable quarterback.

Tyler Bray… moving on.  Not a mobile quarterback.  He’d be a great pick for Cincy as a backup- as he reminds me of a poor man’s Andy Dalton.

Colby Cameron is cited by some since he has read option experience and didn’t embarrass himself in the forty.  Cameron has a lot of problems though.  He officially weighed in at just 212 pounds, but I would guess that he played around 200 flat.  He has a very skinny frame that does not look conducive to taking hits.  He also has a sidearm release and at just 6’2″ that could result in a very high number of batted passes and accuracy problems.  He has a big windup on his throws- though like Colin Kaepernick coming out of Nevada- he compensates for a very inefficient motion with a ton of arm speed.  Cameron’s overall technique isn’t pretty.  I feel like I see players like Cameron every year and they never last in the NFL, much less turn into impact starters.

There are things I do like about Cameron though.  He plays the game at a very fast pace, a rare quality.  He has solid footspeed on the field, somewhere between Jay Cutler and Tony Romo levels.  He has an impressive feel for the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, and he showed himself capable of checking through multiple reads, then tucking to run after completing several reads.  He can change reads quickly, though he isn’t as smooth at checking reads as guys like Russell Wilson or Matt Barkley.

There is enough to like that Seattle might consider him, but I’m worried enough about his mechanics, accuracy, and lack of durability potential to pass on him if the choice were mine.

Then you have BJ Daniels who I highlighted yesterday.  If you detected a tone of excitement in that post, it was partially from a sense of relief that I found a worthwhile consideration in an otherwise desolate landscape for late round read option quarterbacks.

It is possible that Seattle does not draft a read option quarterback this year.  After all, John Schneider said his “primary model” included keeping Matt Flynn.  If he does, the pressure to add a quarterback is lessened.

If Seattle does draft a quarterback, I could see five possibilities:  Tyler Wilson if he tanks, Matt Scott if he doesn’t go as early as speculated, Colby Cameron if they feel comfortable with his flaws, BJ Daniels if they are okay with having two short quarterbacks.  That’s four, with the fifth option being a quarterback that essentially nobody knows about- ala Josh Portis in 2011.

Would Seattle spend a high pick on a quarterback?  That strikes me as unlikely, though it would become a little less unlikely if Matt Flynn is traded.

Wide Receiver

There was a tone of excitement in John Schneider’s voice when he acquired Stephen Williams on a dirt cheap two year contract earlier this winter.  Some of you might be asking “Williams who?”  Williams had been a failed member of Arizona’s wide receiver corps; you might say he was their version of Ricardo Lockette.  That said, you know else was a castoff from an NFC West team in recent times?  Danario Alexander.  Alexander had a monster second half of the season in 2012, and finished #1 in the NFL in yards per target.  Alexander proved to be one of the NFL’s most explosive deep threats, even if just for half of one season.  Williams has very similar height/weight/speed/potential to Alexander.  Maybe Williams is another Lockette, or maybe he’s another Alexander minus the injuries.  All I know is, John Schneider was pretty geeked about acquiring him.  “We got him!”   Those were his exact words as I recall.

Ahead of Williams on the depth chart is the following crew:  Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin.  John Schneider recently admitted that wide receiver was not a need this offseason, but they just felt Harvin was too good an opportunity to say “no” to.   Would Seattle pass on this excellent receiver class as a result?  Maybe, but then again, we have ten draft picks.  What’s the harm in trying to jump on a value pick here and there?

As much as I’d love to get Ryan Swope at #56, that feels unlikely, unless Seattle feels they are likely to lose Golden Tate to unrestricted free agency in 2014.  I think our best bet is later in the draft for tall receivers to compete with Williams, guys like Mark Harrison or Rodney Smith.  I prefer Harrison, but Smith has some yards after catch ability and great measurables, so he’s worth keeping an eye on as well.

Tight End

I think Seattle is very comfortable with Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy as a starting duo.  That said, I do think tight end could be an early priority for a few reasons.  The first is that Seattle will run into cap problems next season, and that could force them to approach Zach Miller with a restructure, and that carries a strong risk of having to release him.  Having a guy like Zach Ertz or another starter option gives Seattle leverage, and an insurance policy if the team is forced to terminate Miller’s contract.

The second is that Seattle doesn’t truly have a “joker” type tight end that is versatile enough to play several roles on offense.  Chris Gragg, Vance McDonald, Jordan Reed, Dion Sims, Nick Kasa, Luke Wilson and Jake Stoneburner are some examples.   Luke Wilson in particular could be a guy to keep an eye on since he’s almost more of a Riley Cooper type receiver than a true tight end.  I’m lukewarm on Luke Wilson as a prospect, but he does strike me as a “Seahawky” pick at tight end.

My favorite tight end is Tyler Eifert.  I was just about to give him a glowing writeup the day of the Harvin trade.  Without a first round pick, we probably don’t have much chance to get him.  His overall game is excellent but it’s his jump ball ability that I think would be a devastating weapon in our offense with Russell Wilson.  If he somehow slides into round two, I would love to see the Seahawks make a dramatic move up the board to get him.

Zach Ertz will probably be an early to mid 2nd rounder.  In a draft that has close to 100 players carrying round two grades, not to mention a very competitive tight end group, it’s conceivable that he could reach the #56 pick.  I’d be a big fan of that pick as well.

Tight end is one of the positions in this draft where I could see Seattle grabbing one almost anywhere.

Running back

With the departure of Leon Washington there’s a new opening on Seattle’s roster at running back.  Seattle has an interesting choice to make here, as there are some interesting bell-cow type backs in this draft with question marks.  Marcus Lattimore and Knile Davis in particular.  Seattle has the roster spot and lack of urgency required to draft Lattimore and stash him until his leg heals.  Knile Davis is a gamble but his upside in a power zone is astronomical.  He has some Terrell Davis type tape from his 2010 season, and his combine measurables are almost identical to Ahman Green’s.  Both backs were 6’0″, 220, and ran a shockingly good forty time.

I don’t think Giovanni Bernard reaches the 56th pick, but if he did, I wouldn’t complain about selecting him.  He has excellent smoothness and speed but is also tough and smart- he reminds me a little of Doug Martin last year.  Utah State’s Kerwynn Williams is a similar player.  Cierre Wood had a nice career at Notre Dame and posted decent enough combine numbers, but appears to be destined for the late rounds.  I think he’d be a great pickup as his game reminds me of Chris Polk.  He’d give Seattle a well rounded, versatile player.

I think the most likely option is that Seattle targets a dynamic and versatile player for that 3rd running back spot- with Denard Robinson being the front runner.  Robinson has elite speed with excellent rushing talent, and might develop into a Percy Harvin type receiver with time.  He can also return kicks.  He’s about as Seahawky a pick as any in this draft.  If Seattle took him in round three I would not be shocked, though I would hope they get him later.

Maybe they draft a Vai Taua type that can play both running back and full back.  Michael Robinson is 30 years old and the fullback position means a lot to our offense.  In fact, maybe Seattle just drafts a second fullback outright.  It’s very hard to predict what Seattle could do here.  Which I guess is a good thing, because having more options means more opportunity.

Offensive line

Seattle is set at center with Max Unger and Lemuel Jeanpierre.

Seattle’s situation at guard is unsettled but make no mistake, Seattle has talent there.  JR Sweezy progressed much faster than anyone could have possibly envisioned.  He is already a very good run blocker with elite second level blocking ability.  He has elite athleticism (outperforming prospects like Matt Khalil in agility drills) and also has long 34″ arms for good measure.  He makes a lot of mistakes in pass protection, but the future is very bright for Sweezy and I would expect him to be an asset next season.  John Moffitt is a technician, not a juggernaut.  He won’t blow you away but I noticed him creating several instrumental blocks on rushing touchdowns last season.  I’d feel comfortable grading him as an average guard last year.  James Carpenter has a ton of power and pulls well, he reminds me of the kinds of guards the 49ers have.  He just needs to stay healthy and stay in shape.  Rishaw Johnson showed a lot of promise as a road grader type last preseason.  Paul McQuistan had a solid year starting at left guard.  Overall, I think we are set at guard at least for 2013.

For the most part I am content with Breno Giacomini.  A lot of his negative value comes from his penalty issues early in the season, but he seemed to improve on that area by the end of the season.  He is a force in the running game, and he’s had some notable victories against top shelf pass rushers.  That said, both Giacomini and McQuistan are free agents after this season, and Frank Omiyale is a yet unclaimed free agent right now.  Drafting an offensive tackle as an upgrade makes sense.  Not only as an upgrade, but as a way of saving some cap space that will be desperately needed next offseason.

Tom Cable’s preference so far has been for very tall offensive lineman that generally weigh less.  Athleticism, power, and nastiness are emphasized over pass protection and polish.

My favorite, easily, is Menelik Watson.  Unfortunately it’s looking like a poor showing at the combine can’t keep him out of the first round.  That’s too bad, because his athleticism and power on tape is eye-popping.  Less impressive tackles have gone top ten in previous drafts.

Terron Armstead is a small school option that tore up the combine and looks like a developmental type with a lot of power and quickness.  I like that he wears my number.  We haven’t had a #70 worth remembering since Michael Sinclair.

Brennan Williams is massive, powerful and very athletic.  He’s 6’6″, 318.  He doesn’t show a ton of nastiness in his play and has a problem with his hand placement, but I could easily see him being picked by the Seahawks in the early to mid rounds for his physical gifts alone.  Williams was as high as #5 overall in a September mock draft on this very site.  As Rob mentioned, Brennan Williams is the son of former Seahawk defensive lineman Brent Williams.

Jordan Devey doesn’t look athletic on tape, but he tested surprisingly well at the combine.  He checks in at 6’7″ and 317 pounds.  Devey plays with a nasty streak and is adept at getting defenders on the ground.  Lumbering but powerful and probably a little too nasty for his own good at times, he reminds me of a taller Richie Incognito.  Devey will likely go undrafted.

John Wetzel needs to be coached up some but he has very quick feet for someone in a 6’7″, 315 pound body.  He has a ton of strength too and plays with a chip on his shoulder.  Not a ton of stuff out there, but what I’ve seen of him strikes me as a Tom Cable type.  Like Devey he’s not the fastest guy but he has a lot of power.  Wetzel will likely go undrafted.

And of course, you have Jordan Mills, who was linked to the Seahawks, a team that might draft him “earlier than you’d think.”

There are many more offensive tackles, and I’ll probably break them down three at a time over the next six weeks.  Those are just a few I thought I’d mention.

Fitting it all together

Here is a rough guess of what John Schneider’s draft pockets might look like on offense right now:

Quarterback: Very late rounds unless someone like Matt Scott or Tyler Wilson tumbles.

Wide Receiver: Rounds 5-7, barring an extreme value opportunity.

Tight End: Rounds 2-5.  A good tight end class creates incentive for Seattle to grab one relatively early.

Running Back: Rounds 5-7, barring a draft steal falling into their lap.

Offensive tackle: Rounds 2-5.  Adding a second one in the 7th or later as competition is possible.

Kicker: Maybe in the 7th.  We’ll see.

–

There will be surprises, but in a predictable world, Seattle’s draft plan might look something like this (combining the draft pockets from both offense and defense):

Round 2: Defensive tackle, Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner is a fringe possibility, as is a pass rusher if someone like Corey Lemonier is there.

Round 3: Defensive tackle, Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner is a fringe possibility

Round 4: Defensive tackle, Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner, Safety, Linebacker

Round 5: Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner, Safety, Linebacker, Receiver, Running back

Round 6: Corner, Safety, Linebacker, Receiver, Running back

Round 7: Remaining needs and value selections

As you can see, this is a really wide open draft for Seattle so it isn’t easy to narrow things down much.  That said, I think it’s pretty likely that Seattle will go defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and tight end with their first three picks, though there will be room for surprises depending on how the board falls in each round.  I think Seattle will probably draft a cornerback later, but their interest in Robert Alford hints at it being a surprisingly early possibility.  I think Seattle will probably bypass LEO given the additions they’ve made on a crunched roster, but I wouldn’t rule it out if an unexpected value falls in their lap.

Last night I was watching game compilations on some of this draft’s top corners, more out of curiosity than of any kind of Seahawks relevance.  I started up a game compilation of Xavier Rhodes- a probable top 20 pick- against the University of Southern Florida.  I was only about 3 plays in though before the opposing quarterback caught my attention and started to steal the show. A quarterback by the name of BJ Daniels.

Right away, I noticed that this is a bulky quarterback, built for running. He was a strictly read option quarterback that sold play action very well and had maybe the best on-field mobility in this draft, not just really fast, but shifty and instinctive. He also displayed a pretty big arm with good throwing mechanics and above average footwork.

Since I had no idea who he was, I assumed he wasn’t in this draft. But as it turns out, he is.  And nobody is talking about him.

Now, there are reasons- great reasons- why he’s not expected to be drafted.

First, he’s short. He’s listed at 6’1″ some places, 6’0″ at others, and even 5’11” in a few spots. I can believe it, since he has that squatty kind of “muscle hamster” type build that Russell Wilson has and for which Doug Martin got his nickname. However tall he is, he’s a ripped 218 pounds, and other than an ankle injury that cost him a couple games at the end of his final season, he’s been injury free despite his run heavy style.

As a four year starter, his career completion rate is just 57.3%. That’s disappointingly low, and low completion percentage is one of the more potent negative indicators for a quarterback prospect. Consider this though- and this might blow your mind- Russell Wilson’s career completion rate in 3 years at NC State? 57.8%. When Wilson went to a real offense at Wisconsin, his completion rate skyrocketed to 72.8%. His completion rate with the Seahawks was 64.1%.

What little I can find of Daniels, he looks accurate. Could his completion rate be down thanks to a weak supporting cast, similar to Wilson at NC State?

Daniels has a decent career YPA of 7.4 but just a tepid 52-39 TD-INT ratio. That ratio looks quite a bit better though when you factor his 25 career rushing touchdowns.

I’m not saying that Daniels is a surefire star, but I like him a lot. If nothing else he impressed me in limited looks and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a projected undrafted quarterback with a more impressive highlight reel than this one. His style strikes me as a bit of a blend between Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, though obviously with less mental talent than Wilson and less physical talent than Newton. USF fans speak very highly of Daniels not only as a quarterback, but as a leader and hard worker and I can’t help but wonder if good coaching and a great supporting cast might show him to be a hidden gem in this draft.

In a draft class that expects to be fairly desolate for read option quarterbacks, especially in the later rounds, Daniels stands out as an option for teams that are willing to overlook his lack of height.  One prospect from last year that Daniels reminds me a little of is GJ Kinne, and it’s worth noting that Seattle invited GJ Kinne for a workout last July. Both have similar height and squatty muscular builds, and both were fearless rushers with similar throwing ability.

In case you’re wondering whatever happened to Kinne, he signed a contract with Chip Kelly’s Eagles a couple weeks ago.

Teams passed on Kinne, and will probably pass on Daniels, because both are “too short.”  The Seahawks have the open-mindedness to consider undersized quarterbacks, and whether it’s with one of our four 7th round picks or with a call in free agency, I think Daniels could be a player to keep an eye on.

The ultimate late round competition at weakside linebacker:  Jayson Dimanche

Hat tip to Scott formerly of 17power for this next one.

The 2013 fireworks display from the small school ranks continues.  Dimanche is not considered a draftable linebacker by most draft sites.  And yet his game (as a 3-4 outside linebacker) looks an awful lot like Jarvis Jones.  Dimanche measured at 6’0.5″ 231 pounds at his pro day, and ran a 4.53 forty with a 38″ vertical.  I always deduct some for pro-day forty times, but even with that deduction, Dimanche is one of the fastest linebackers in this draft.

Further, he shows explosive speed on tape and has incredible pass rush instincts.  I don’t think it would be a stretch at all to see him competing on our roster at the WILL spot, especially if Dan Quinn wants to be more aggressive with his linebackers.  And while we already have Bruce Irvin, I could see Dimanche fitting in nicely in a Raheem Brock type role on 3rd downs, which could come in handy if Irvin graduates to LEO status in the next couple seasons.

Every draft has great players that nobody talks about.  Sometimes they are in plain sight (Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson last year, Ryan Swope and John Simon this year).  It’s easy to see how someone like Dimanche is anonymous, but I would think that after what Russell Wilson did last season, overlooking a star quarterback with a similar skillset out of the Big East would be improbable.  And yet, it’s happening again, this time to BJ Daniels.  Will Seattle capitalize on the league’s small-mindedness again in 2013?  Here’s hoping.  Grabbing an anonymous stud like Dimanche is something I’ll root for as well.

(Be sure to check out Rob’s article on Gavin Escobar earlier today where he compares the San Diego State playmaker to Anthony McCoy.)

For months we’ve studied this roster, listened for clues, and scoured the press wires for rumors.  We looked into contract situations and tried to determine where Seattle might want to get younger or more cost effective.  We worked hard, and I would like to think we were on the right track.  The performances at the NFL Scouting Combine helped finally bring the picture into focus.  We felt that Datone Jones was probably the favorite in round one, with a receiver (perhaps Ryan Swope) being a likely target in round two, with an outside pass rusher perhaps being a target in round three (Corey Lemonier, Brandon Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, etc).  I would have felt very comfortable with that trio of projections.

Seattle had money to spend, but most of it was rollover cash and the team has myriad priority free agents just over the horizon.  John Schneider said that he might “dabble” in free agency.

Instead, he posted at least arguably the most electric opening to free agency in the league this year.  Had Percy Harvin been a free agent, Seattle would have signed, in my opinion, three of the top five free agents available, with Harvin topping the list. It was a masterful showing that completely shattered the previous draft model we had developed.  I doubt there has ever been a more exciting opening to free agency for Seahawks fans than the one that just passed.  So much for the “stand pat” theory.

There isn’t much money left to spend, but I have to believe Alan Branch will return.  Seattle needs depth for both Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane as well as a defined rush defense oriented 3-tech.  If you were Branch, and the money was close, would you prefer to return to Superbowl favorite or play for a rebuilding team such as Jacksonville that probably doesn’t have him in their long term plans?  If Branch does leave, there are options in the draft.  And if Seattle does retain Branch, adding a well rounded 3-tech or a pure interior pass rusher project still makes plenty of sense in the long term.

I think Steven Hauschka will probably be back.  That plus the money for draft picks essentially uses up what money the team has left.  After that, it will just be a matter of signing extensions for next year’s players, and figuring out where that money will come from.

Seattle could probably skip the 2013 draft and still win a Superbowl next season.  They are set just about everywhere with an average or better starter.  This means that the 2013 draft will shift focus to three new areas:  drafting for value, drafting for specific roles, and drafting for potential future needs.  Here’s how I think the 2013 draft priorities will look after free agency adjusted the team’s big board:

Defensive Tackle

I am a huge fan of the Michael Bennett addition.  Letting him leave in the first place was among the bigger mistakes of the Tim Ruskell administration.  Having watched him last season, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he took off in production when being moved away from the 3-tech and more towards a Justin Tuck type role.  Bennett has enough explosive upper body power to bully tackles and tight ends for cheap sacks, and he’s fast enough to run around an off-balance blocker.  If he’s moved inside, he’ll draw a lot of double teams and he won’t capitalize on that power move so much.  He also graded very highly by Pro Football Focus as a run stuffer, so it would hardly surprise me if he essentially steals Red Bryant’s starting 5-tech job by next year (along with the money that Red Bryant would be making).  I think he can manage as a 3-tech but at just 274 pounds I think he’s probably only a situational player there.   And given his obvious value at strong side end, I think it’s wise to get him reps there as often as possible.

This means that Seattle probably shouldn’t consider the 3-tech issue fixed just yet, especially since Alan Branch and Clinton McDonald are still free agents- and Jaye Howard is far from a shoe-in on the next 53 man roster.  I personally view Bennett as being half a 3-tech, and we have several 3-tech spots to fill.   We still need to add interior pass rush specialist depth and at least one- preferably two- run stopping specialists.  We need to always at least have the option of lining up an extra big body with Brandon Mebane to protect Bobby Wagner in obvious rush situations, since Wagner will often struggle with free blockers.  It would also be nice if those run stuffers had at least some pass rush ability.

I think Seattle will try to retain Branch and then add one more “Alan Branch type” and one more “Jason Jones type” in this draft.  If Sylvester Williams reaches the #56 pick, he could be strongly considered since he is a terrific all around defensive tackle- similar to Alan Branch with more pass rush ability.  Bennie Logan is a solid option as a “Alan Branch” type as well, though I view him as more of a mid-round prospect that will be an average NFL player.  I think he moves well for his size and defends the run well, but he isn’t a sensational athlete and didn’t dominate at LSU.  Abry Jones is an under the radar option from Georgia’s loaded defense who fits this mold too.  He might be had in the 7th round.  Jordan Hill is a mid-rounder that may not be great against the run but controls gaps very well.

It appears Clinton McDonald might not be back, and if they replace him it will probably be with a pass rusher type who possesses 4.8 forty type speed (since McDonald and the departed Jones both ran the forty in that area).  Obviously, if Datone Jones reaches our pick, he would be a terrific addition, but that seems extremely unlikely at this point.  Kawann Short isn’t that fast, but he could make sense too, though he’s also highly unlikely to reach us.  There are some intriguing projects in the mid rounds, but most of them did not play defensive tackle in college.  Lavar Edwards, Malliciah Goodman, and Joe Kruger all possess size and speed similar to Jason Jones, but unfortunately all of them played defensive end in college.  John Simon was a end/tackle hybrid in college and might be an option as well.

(Note from Rob — Clinton McDonald was tendered by the Seahawks. This means he’ll be part of the roster in 2013 unless another team signs him to an offer sheet. If that happens, the Seahawks get a 7th round pick as compensation.)

Lavar Edwards’ combine numbers read a lot like Datone Jones with longer arms.  Edwards:  6’4″, 277 pounds, 35.5″ arms, 4.80 in the forty, 1.64 ten yard split.  Jones: 6’4″, 283 pounds, 33″ arms, 4.80 in the forty, 1.63 ten yard split.  Jones is a deserving 1st round pick.  Edwards played very few interior snaps, but showed excellent explosion off the snap and good power.  He’s not going to blow you away with his tape, but he has the tools to be a high upside pass rush 3-tech.  Goodman is a similar story, with measurables that compare to Greg Scruggs.  Joe Kruger- brother of Paul Kruger- played mostly as a 3-4 defensive end and excelled with a more physical style of play.  I think his conversion to the 3-tech would be more streamlined than Edwards or Goodman.  Kruger is 6’6″, 269, ran a 4.83 in the forty, and has the core strength to play inside.  He also has a lot of potential to add weight on his frame if needed.  There’s also John Simon, who I’ve talked about before.  I think Simon will be a star for some lucky team as he plays much bigger than his size.  Armonty Bryant might be a possibility if Seattle thinks he can handle a hybrid role.  He has the quickness and core strength for it.  I expect most if not all of these options be available in the middle rounds of the draft.

Defensive End

Cliff Avril was given Leroy Hill’s number, which means he can play either defensive end or linebacker.  If Seattle views Avril primarily as a LEO, that means they are already carrying one more defensive end than they did last year, so adding another seems doubtful.  If they view Avril as a linebacker that can sub at LEO, then it’s conceivable that they might draft a LEO if there is a value they just can’t say no to.  Perhaps an athletic pass rusher like Corey Lemonier, Margus Hunt, Devin Taylor, or Cornelius Washington.  Ty Powell, Trevardo Williams, and Jamie Collins could be potential considerations, but I personally view all three of them as linebackers.

Quite frankly, I think this years’ defensive end class is stunningly weak.  The only defensive end I even like as a value pick is Corey Lemonier if he reaches the 2nd or 3rd round.  I think that John Schneider would probably agree with me, and I think the spending spree at defensive end shows it.  This was a much stronger free agent defensive end class than draft class, and I think John Schneider was absolutely right for getting the Seahawks in the mix there.

I wouldn’t completely rule out a defensive end addition, but I think it’s very unlikely.  It would have to be a “too good to turn down” value such as Corey Lemonier or Margus Hunt in the mid rounds.

Linebacker

As I hinted at in my “USC backup crew” article, I don’t think Seattle views linebacker as a pressing need, and since then they’ve added a potential part time linebacker with 4.51 speed in Cliff Avril.  Given the quality that Mike Morgan and Malcolm Smith showed in limited looks the last two seasons, I think we are likely to see them starring in a Moffitt/Sweezy type platoon at weakside linebacker in 2013.  Avril will likely replace KJ Wright at SAM in some situations and might also see some action at WILL when he’s not lining up as a defensive end.  Given that Avril played on the strong side at Detroit and has linebacker experience in college, I could see him being a really nice piece on our defense from the SAM spot, acting a bit like a 5th lineman.  I’m actually a little geeked about the pre-draft status at linebacker right now.  We have weapons in the linebacker crew.  A complete array of them.

That doesn’t mean we couldn’t try to add another.  I’m pretty sure Seattle will at least try.  Unfortunately, this is a below average linebacker group across the board and it’s particularly unimpressive if you are searching for linebackers that run legit 4.4 and 4.5 type times like Pete Carroll does.  Of all the linebackers Pete Carroll has acquired so far, only run stuffing SAM KJ Wright did not run a forty in the 4.4 or 4.5 range.  That speed matters when your primary Superbowl threat also plays in your division and is built around a running quarterback who clocked in at 4.53 in the forty.

Zaviar Gooden makes sense, but does Seattle like him enough to spend a third or fourth round pick on him?  That’s a big investment for “competition” with Mike Morgan, Malcolm Smith, and Allen Bradford.  Maybe AJ Klein later on?  He’s a bit on the slow side for Pete, but he’s a good football player and can close in a hurry.  Maybe Cornelius Washington, even though he was more of a defensive end at Georgia?  Jamie Collins is getting some 1st round hype as a 3-4 outside linebacker.  Ty Powell has a lot of burst and thump to his game, but like AJ Klein his speed might be fringe for Carroll.  Trevardo Williams is probably fast enough.  Most people think he’s a defensive end, but I see him as a linebacker due to his non-aggressive style of play.

I wouldn’t be stunned by a selection of Khaseem Greene or Alec Ogletree, but after running in the low 4.7s, I have to think that’s not going to be fast enough and the investment for either might be too big given the other needs the team has.  We’ll see.

Cornerback

It seems extremely likely that Seattle will draft another corner.  Seattle drafted a corner in 2010, they drafted two corners in 2011, and they drafted a corner in 2012.  It’s been a bit of a tradition to take one every year, not to mention the results of those picks have caught the attention of the NFL.

The Seahawks also appear to be parting ways with Marcus Trufant, so there could be a roster spot to fill.  Then there is the rumor about Seattle showing strong interest in Robert Alford, who may not even reach Seattle’s pick in round two.

Pete Carroll has never drafted a corner earlier than the 4th round.  Is it possible that he might set a new high water mark for that position this year?  It’s been estimated that as many as twenty corners could be drafted in the top 100 picks.  It’s a very deep defensive back class- loaded with prospects that ran in the 4.4s and 4.5s.  Seattle could probably wait til the late rounds again, but there is the risk that a deep class might be picked dry by then.  Seattle’s interest in second round prospect Robert Alford certainly raises questions, as does Walter Thurmond and RFA Brandon Browner’s statuses after next season.

One thing to remember is that Seattle is not exclusively looking for corners over six foot tall.  Walter Thurmond is 5’11”.  The rumored Alford is 5’10”.  Jeremy Lane is exactly six foot.  Being over six feet tall helps, but isn’t a requirement.  Speed isn’t a major requirement, although I think Seattle will probably prefer players with a well rounded game that can elevate to the football and press well at the line.

A few of my favorites are Iowa’s Micah Hyde, Georgia’s Sanders Commings and LSU’s Tharold Simon.  Hyde is a well rounded corner that has so-so measurables but excellent tape.  Commings was a consistent difference maker on a great defense, and moves extremely well for someone standing 6 foot tall and weighing a Browner-esque 216 pounds.  Simon is a great cover corner despite being 6’2″ and over 200 pounds.

Seattle will almost certainly draft a corner, and that selection might happen anywhere in the draft.  My guess is that we’ll see them take one in the round 4-7 range just as they did in years prior, but spending a pick earlier would not shock me.

Safety

With Chris Maragos still a free agent, I suspect Seattle will take a long look at a fairly potent free safety group this year.  Maragos wouldn’t be expensive to retain, so he might be back after the draft concludes if Seattle doesn’t find an option they like.

I think safety will probably be a late priority.  Two safeties I like:  Earl Wolff and Jakar Hamilton.  While Shamarko Thomas is drawing a lot of attention for his athleticism, Wolff wasn’t far behind in his combine performances.  Wolff had a hit and miss tenure during his wolfpack career, but his speed and style are reminiscent of a rookie Earl Thomas.  Wolff will probably be a 3rd or 4th round pick, but he could be a player to watch if he slips during the draft.

A more likely late round option is Jakar Hamilton.  Once a talented safety for Georgia, he suffered an injury and lost his starting job to two excellent safeties, Shawn Williams and Baccari Rambo.  Hamilton faced the prospect of graduating without getting to play, so he transferred and played last season for South Carolina State.  Hamilton faced a steep academic hill to climb when he joined South Carolina State and had to take 19 credit hours during the Spring semester and another 18 credit hours over the Summer.  His defensive coordinator called it “probably the biggest hill to climb of anybody [he’d] seen come into [SC State’s] program.”  Hamilton isn’t just a determined player, he’s also a gifted one.  He stands 6’1″, weighs 200, but runs in the 4.4s.  He’s very strong in run defense but has the speed to play corner or free safety.  Not only could he back up Earl Thomas, he might even be able to free up Kam Chancellor at strong safety to play other positions for a few snaps here and there.

Like corner, it’s really hard to guess who Seattle will draft.  It just seems very likely that they will take one, somewhere.  They might even take two, if they feel that they want more competition for Winston Guy and Jeron Johnson in the big nickle packages.

Fitting it all together

Here is a rough guess of what John Schneider’s draft pockets might look like on defense right now:

Defensive Tackle: Rounds 2-4; might add an additional DT in the 4-7 range.

Defensive End: Unlikely to be drafted, unless value presents itself.

Linebacker: Rounds 4-7, waiting for UDFA a possibility.

Cornerback: Probably rounds 4-7, but earlier rounds shouldn’t be ruled out given the expected early rush on the position.

Safety: Rounds 4-7.

In summation, Seattle is looking for depth on defense almost exclusively, with the only starter type player being a run stuffing 3-tech that can also rush the quarterback some.  Someone like Sylvester Williams or Bennie Logan.

It’s funny how memory works.  One of the impressions I had from Seattle’s meeting against Minnesota last year was how unstoppable Harvin seemed.  Earlier today, I looked at Harvin’s game log to see how he did.  He had 10 yards receiving on six targets.  He added 24 yards on 4 rushes.  Was I smoking crack?  Why did I think Harvin was carving us up?

After reviewing that game a bit more, I realized how many close calls our defense had against Harvin.  Passes that just missed, passes caught that were just barely contained, and rushes that might have gone big if not for an ankle tackle here and there.  He may not have had a great game statistically before leaving with injury, but Seattle didn’t have the speed to cover him.  If he had been paired with a better quarterback and if he had played the whole game, I suspect he would have been a nightmare for our defense.  Harvin was on pace for 1334 receiving yards on 120 receptions before that fateful game at Century Link.  There was talk around midseason that he could end up an MVP candidate.

Pete Carroll once called Harvin “arguably the best football player in America” in reference to Harvin as a recruit from Landstown High School in Virginia.  The competition for Harvin as recruit came down to just USC and Florida.  Carroll made a big push, but ultimately lost Harvin to Florida, probably because Harvin wanted to stay on the east coast.  I don’t think Carroll ever forgot about Harvin.  If there is one thing you can count on- it’s that Pete Carroll doesn’t forget the one that got away.  Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, and Bruce Irvin can testify to this.  Now Percy Harvin can as well.

But just as importantly, I think Harvin had a special place in John Schneider’s heart as well.  In Green Bay- where Schneider served as Thompson’s right hand man for many years- they had tremendous success in the draft with receivers.  They followed a system that targeted fast receivers with quick feet and yards after catch ability.

In Seattle, that trend continued, with the team targeting quick receivers like Golden Tate and Kris Durham, as well as acquiring Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette and Phil Bates, all of whom ran in the 4.4’s or better.  The slowest receiver Schneider has acquired from the draft process is Lavasier Tuinei, and even he ran a 4.53.  The two biggest successes of that group are Tate and Baldwin.  Tate is famous for his ability after the catch, and Baldwin is no slouch himself.  A very common comparison for Tate is a poor man’s Percy Harvin.

After a pair of sneaky strong 2012 seasons from Golden Tate and Sidney Rice, it made sense that Seattle would target an upgrade in the slot over Doug Baldwin, who finally showed the same struggle to remain healthy that made him an otherwise undeserving undrafted free agent in 2011.  Harvin led the NFL in yards after catch per reception last season, and has the kind of rare quickness out of the slot that you will only find a few other places in the league.   Not only did Harvin’s profile perfectly fit Seattle’s preferences, but his ability as a slot weapon, kick returner, and wrinkle in the rushing attack fit perfectly into Seattle’s 2013 offseason needs.

Harvin also brings an added element:  he changes the way defenses have to game plan our offense.  Consider this video where Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave talks about the impact Harvin has on defensive formations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji9kxcbjimM&feature=youtu.be

Harvin’s speed and threat after the catch will not only limit the number of looks defenses can show pre-snap, but it will also force defenses to cover him in the slot with safeties and corners.  If you have a corner on him, that probably means using a nickle defense package.  Nickle packages tend to fare worse against the run, which is pretty nice considering that Seattle led the NFL in rushing percentage last season.  If you cover Harvin with a safety and are not using a nickle package, that means you only have one safety deep, which invites big plays on the deep ball.  If memory serves, Russell Wilson was the 4th highest quarterback in the NFL last season in deep ball throw rate.

It’s very unlikely that Harvin would post 120 catches for 1334 yards in our offense next year.  However, even if he posts Sidney Rice or Golden Tate type production, Harvin could bring a lot of hidden value to the rest of the offense based on his ability to change the way defenses play.

Regarding the trade itself, I don’t think it was a bad trade by any means, but I do think Seattle overpaid.  It was widely assumed just one month ago that Minnesota had no leverage and would be fortunate to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick.  One anonymous NFL GM even went so far to say that he’d be “shocked” if Minnesota even managed a 3rd.  I think Harvin’s $11 million a year contract is reasonable, but it is still a lot of money to invest at receiver in an offense that spreads the football.  And as Kenneth Arthur recently noted, Seattle owns the NFL’s most expensive offense, despite having a star quarterback making about 1/40th what he deserves.

Even the 7th round pick Seattle surrendered shouldn’t be taken lightly in this loaded draft class.  It’s very possible that the draft picks alone could have turned into two or three good players, and then you have the money aspect which would cover two more good players as well.  So for the price of one Harvin, Seattle gave up four or five contributors- and there is a chance one or two of them could be the next Richard Sherman or Bobby Wagner.  That’s a lot to give up.

Of course, Seattle’s roster is so stocked right now that many draft picks are going to waste anyway, but I don’t think that should be used as an excuse.  You always need more young talent to come in to replace the previous young talent that will inevitably lost to free agency in the coming years.

That said, I also thought Zach Miller was an overpay, and I couldn’t be any happier to have Zach Miller on my team.  I think everyone agrees that Joe Flacco is overpaid, but Baltimore is far better off with an overpaid Joe Flacco than without him.  Being an overpay does not make the Harvin transaction a burden by any means.  Quite the opposite, I think Seattle just got their version of Wes Welker.  The Patriots got Welker for a 2nd and a 7th, and a lot less money, but had they paid a Percy Harvin type price, they obviously wouldn’t have regretted it.  Not that I expect Harvin to post Welker type numbers, but I do think our offense will have a comparable leap forward.

Another trade comparison is Julio Jones.  The Jones trade cost far more in picks (two firsts, a second, and two fourths), but Harvin cost $7 million more a year in salary.  Even at the steep cost of the Jones trade, most people agree that the deal has been justified by Jones’ performances.  I don’t think Harvin is the kind of pure receiving threat that Jones is, but in terms of total contribution (receiving, rushing, special teams, the way he changes defenses) I think it could be argued that he’s at least in the ballpark for total value.

I don’t think this trade proved anything about Seattle’s priorities.  They could have acquired players like Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, or Wes Welker for far less total cost.  The fact that they paid this much with some excellent cheaper alternatives just shows you how highly they value Harvin.  They clearly view Harvin as a 24 year old, MVP type difference maker for their offense.  I don’t think this was a case of buying high because of a need.  I think it was a case of buying high because they felt that Harvin specifically was a “must get” player.

Of course, all the worries about Harvin’s migraines and character risks shouldn’t be brushed aside (although to be fair, Harvin busts his ass on the field and is exactly the kind of “character risk” that would fit in around here).  We’ll see how that works out with time.  If nothing else, Seattle’s emphatic trade for Harvin crystallizes the idea that Seattle highly values speedy, yards after catch receivers.

John Schneider loves black sheep free agents

John Schneider’s modus operandi in free agency has always been “wait and see.”  In 2011, he made a shocking acquisition of Sidney Rice on day four of free agency.  Rice, a one time 1300 yard receiver, drew essentially no interest in the open market.  Seattle saw an opportunity for a potential #1 receiver on a reasonable deal, and pounced.  A few days later, more than a week into free agency, Seattle made an even bigger surprise signing with Zach Miller, who had far less interest than expected on the open market.  The deal for Miller wasn’t the potential bargain that Rice was, but Seattle was hunting for talent for their two tight end sets and Miller fits our multi-dimensional offense about as well as you could ask for.

In 2012, Seattle seemed disinterested in quarterback Matt Flynn, that was until his market didn’t materialize as many expected.  Teams avoided Flynn, unconvinced by his lack of track record and late round tools.  It probably didn’t help that everyone just assumed he’d get “Kolb money”, this during a time when Kevin Kolb was considered a cautionary tale.  Flynn ended up with almost zero market, and Seattle’s view changed.  They ended up swooping in to nab him at 3 years, $19 million, a move that probably would have looked brilliant if not for the thunderous emergence of Russell Wilson.

Of course, this tactic extends beyond big money darlings in free agency.  Black sheep come in all shapes and sizes.  Guys like Brandon Browner, Chris Clemons, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington, Raheem Brock, Brandon Stokely, Anthony Hargrove, Kellen Winslow, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards.  Some of those acquisitions were strikeouts and some were home runs, but all were low cost gambles that on the whole provided the team with a great return on investment.

This year’s black sheep acquisition is Cliff Avril.  Widely believed to be the top pass rusher available, Avril did not generate the market that was expected.  Perhaps citing a lack of run defense, or the theory that Ndamukong Suh acted as Avril’s benefactor, teams seemed wary to hand Avril top pass rusher years and money.  With Clemons being paid nearly $18 million for his age 32 and 33 seasons, coming fresh off an ACL, and with Irvin appearing to be far away from being a true 3-down LEO, adding another pass rusher at end made all kinds of sense for Seattle at the right price.  It’s no surprise then that Seattle was the first team to invite John Abraham for a visit after his release from the Falcons.

When it was announced that Seattle had signed Avril, I was surprised.  When I saw the details, I was stunned.  Fifteen million dollars over two years?  Seriously?  What a great buy low move and as early as day two of free agency no less.

Avril’s game is a bit of a mix between Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin.  Avril’s size, speed, and physique is extremely similar to Clemons.  And like Clemons, Avril can manage against the run without having to sell out for it.  Where he’s like Irvin is how he’s very much an edge rusher that isn’t the same on inside moves.  Avril thrives on attacking the edge and swatting at quarterbacks as he passes by.  This is where I think the Suh concern is very real, because most of Avril’s production occurs because quarterbacks are afraid to step into the pocket.  And without a 1st round pick, or any real answer in free agency, Seattle will find it very challenging to create interior pressure next season.  Of course, Seattle is not done with the offseason, and there are a few rays of hope in the 2013 draft to complete Seattle’s pass rush ((cough) John Simon (cough) (cough)).

For many teams, I don’t know if Avril made sense even at 2/15, but for Seattle’s LEO role he’s a great fit.  I would have happily seen the Seahawks sign him for 5/50 last offseason before he was franchised.  Our defense is built to minimize his issues against the run, and while we probably won’t generate the interior pressure he’s depended on, he didn’t exactly have a secondary quite like ours behind him in Detroit, either.

Of course, this acquisition raises questions about Chris Clemons’ future.  Will Seattle pay almost $18 million over the next two seasons for a 32 year old player fresh off an ACL when cheaper, safer, and frankly, better alternatives are available?  Clemons has been one of the most valuable defensive ends in the NFL, but I doubt he’d bring as much value in 2013 on a bad knee as a healthy John Abraham or Osi Umenyiora would.  Is a healthy 26 year old Cliff Avril worth less than a 32 year old Clemons fresh off an ACL?  With Avril acting as needed insurance, we might see a restructure attempt heading Clemons’ way.

Obviously, nobody expected Seattle to blow the doors off in the first two days of free agency.  But in retrospect, their actions seem almost predictable for how well they fit the established mold.  While the amount is shocking, the fact that Seattle went for Percy Harvin is hardly surprising.  While it was highly unexpected that Avril would find his market so lacking, it is not surprising that it was the Seahawks who took advantage of it.  So far, this has been nothing if not a very John Schneider type offseason.  The Seahawks do not handle free agency like most teams do, and it’s part of the reason they’ve risen so quickly as an NFL superpower.

During an interview at the Scouting Combine Pete Carroll talked about the team’s needs, and one of the things that struck me was his seeming ease about the linebacker situation.  He joked about Seattle’s current linebacker situation at weakside linebacker, referring to his “USC backup crew” with a tone of affection.  While upfront about upgrading many areas of the team, Carroll implied that he was only going to seek “someone to compete” with this trio of players.

That group of linebackers- Malcolm Smith, Mike Morgan, and Allen Bradford- all played for Carroll at USC and all ran good forty times.  Bradford had a 4.56 (at 242 pounds), Morgan a 4.46 (pro-day), and Smith a 4.44.  Both Morgan and Smith tilt the scales under 230 pounds, often considered a “cutoff point” for most evaluators.  Bradford was a running back at USC and outside of his time on the practice squad last season, he hasn’t played linebacker since high school.  Factor in Korey Toomer (4.53), a 5th round pick from last season that spent some time on the practice squad, and we have four fast linebackers that can play the weak side already.

We already have a ton of fast linebacker prospects.  Granted, each and every one of them has an issue to deal with.  Mike Morgan is undersized.  Malcolm Smith is undersized and was highly injury prone at USC.  Allen Bradford is learning the ropes again at linebacker.  Korey Toomer was more of an athlete than linebacker last preseason- a player that struggled badly in everything other than his surprisingly potent pass rush ability.

If Seattle acquires another linebacker, and it sounds like they probably will, that player will have to compete with four other players for the final linebacker starting job.  Or maybe Seattle can’t make up their mind and ends up platooning multiple linebackers at the weakside- just like they did last season for Moffitt/Sweezy at guard and Johnson/Guy at big nickle safety.

It wasn’t long ago that I presented the case that Seattle might have to draft a fast linebacker early, because this draft class is thin in that area relative to previous years.  After hearing Pete Carroll’s comments and realizing how athletic our current backup linebackers are, I’m starting to think the opposite might true- Seattle might add a linebacker in the back half of the draft- barring a draft coup at linebacker falling to them in the 3rd or 4th round.  Seattle has the depth and talent to survive a season with a “backup crew” manning the weakside linebacker spot- arguably the least valuable position on our defense- a position where “adequate” is the norm for most 4-3 defenses.

Morgan went undrafted and Bradford was a late round pick by Tampa Bay as a running back that was quickly released that same year.  Seattle signed Bradford off waivers, placed him on the practice squad, and in late December of last year, finally promoted him to the active roster.  Bradford missed most of the 2012 preseason but I personally thought he impressed in his lone performance against Oakland.  His speed and size were plainly evident.  He could lay a hit and played with more instincts than I would have expected.  Toomer was a 5th round pick last year and Smith was a 7th round pick in 2011.  The combined draft expense of these four linebackers was the same as the price the Jets paid Seattle to move down four spots in the second round last year.

As you can see, Seattle is in the business of hunting value at linebacker.  Why does it feel like we’ve seen this before?  It’s because Seattle has used the same scatter shot approach to cornerback and big nickle safety.  Seattle has drafted or acquired via undrafted free agency a corner and a safety in every offseason to date.  That tactic netted us a megastar in Richard Sherman, a pro-bowler in Kam Chancellor, and several quality backups and special teams contributors.

It would appear that so far Seattle is using the same tactic at weak side linebacker.  Malcolm Smith had two touchdowns last season on special teams, and has been no stranger to quality play even though he rarely sees the field.  Mike Morgan filled in for both Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright at times and was a minor star during the 2012 preseason.  He’s a lot like our big nickle safety Jeron Johnson but at linebacker.  Both are players with strong preseason performances and have shown themselves to be adequate or better in real games.  Morgan plays bigger than his 226 pound size and Johnson also plays above his size and speed limitations.  Johnson is a fringe starter (in nickle packages), but a quality one just the same.  Might Mike Morgan be our fringe starter at weakside linebacker in 2013?

If Bradford can build on his good showing in the preseason finale last year, Seattle might already have a fairly robust competition underway for the final starting linebacker job.  And all are fast enough to offer Seattle a fast starter at that position.

Then you factor Korey Toomer’s athletic upside, and you can see why Pete doesn’t seem terribly stressed about weakside linebacker.  He’d still like to add one more, but I no longer think that indicates a priority.  It indicates that he’s in the habit of spending late round picks on scatter shot choices to increase depth and competition, and to perhaps find a diamond in the rough while doing it if he’s lucky.

It’s also possible that Pete Carroll and John Schneider just don’t like this linebacker class very much, and could be holding off for a future offseason which boasts a stronger group, as they did at receiver during the 2012 draft.  I wouldn’t rule that out, especially since this draft isn’t all that great in my opinion for fast linebackers.

With this in mind, I’m going to very quickly post some thoughts on the all the fast linebackers or potential fast linebackers that performed at the combine.  Of course, you will always have non-combine players to watch for (one example being former USC athlete/linebacker Jordan Campbell), so this list won’t be 100% comprehensive, but it should cover all the options that clocked around 4.65 or under (or didn’t run but would be expected to be that fast).  The fastest linebackers run in the mid 4.4s, and the slowest run in the mid 4.8s, so I think 4.65 is a good median to work with.  Remember, these aren’t scouting reports, just quick hits of what I think of each player in a few sentences after watching each of them during the past few weeks:

Zaviar Gooden (4.47): Gooden is the only linebacker this year with clear 4.4s type speed in this draft.  On tape, he is a slight framed looking player but the speed really shows.  I think his instincts are just fine- but he is so aggressive that he often overshoots and misses tackles.  Obviously, with speed like that, Gooden’s upside in coverage is pretty good.  Hands down the fastest linebacker in this draft, but funny enough, he’d only be our 4th fastest linebacker on our team if the Seahawks draft him.  Mid round projection.

Arthur Brown (estimated speed:  4.45 to 4.55 range): Brown did not run at the combine.  Brown has speed and impressive burst, but like Alec Ogletree he is more of an athlete than a linebacker.  Pete Carroll raved about Brown coming out of high school though, calling him the best linebacker he’d seen in many years.  And coming from a guy that ran linebacker U, that’s saying something.  Brown struggled for most of his college career before finally posting a solid season in 2012 for Kansas State.  I don’t think Seattle would draft Brown early, but if he slipped to round three I could see the temptation being there.

Jelani Jenkins (estimated speed: 4.50 to 4.60 range): Jenkins didn’t run at the combine, but you can see on tape that he can cover ground in a hurry.  That’s about the only thing I like about him, though.  He utterly lacks physicality- it’s like watching Kelly Jennings the linebacker.  John Schneider said he thought the underclassman linebacker group was intriguing.  Jenkins is the only underclassman linebacker to possess above average speed (Alec Ogletree ran in the 4.7s).  I’d hate this pick, but it bears watching.  Funny enough, by sheer coincidence both Brown and Jenkins will have their pro days tomorrow (March 12th), so we should get a more scientific idea of their speed by then.  Mid round projection.

Cornelius Washington (4.55): Washington was more of a defensive end for Georgia, but he’s so underdeveloped that it’s not a stretch to draft him as a linebacker/end hybrid and see where he ends up.  His combination of size, speed, strength and athleticism is highly reminiscent of Aaron Curry, which is actually a good thing for a potential late round pick.  Pete Carroll was a huge fan of Curry’s potential before arriving in Seattle and discovering the horrible truth.  Washington could be a player to watch as a high upside project at either outside linebacker or LEO.  Mid to late round projection.

Trevardo Willams (4.57): Standing just 6’1″ with 32″ arms, Williams will not see his game translate as a defensive end in the pros.  However, his build, speed, and diagnosis ability paint a promising picture as a linebacker convert.  If viewed as a linebacker, Williams would be one of the fastest linebackers in this draft despite also weighing 241 pounds.

Jonathan Bostic (4.61): Bostic has just okay speed, basically on the good side of average.  His tape leaves a lot to be desired.  He wears concrete shoes in zone coverage, hardly even tries to get off blocks and reads the run poorly.  If Seattle did draft him, I would be shocked if he made the roster.  Played middle linebacker.  Mid round projection.

Ty Powell (4.64): Powell is a rare player capable of playing at all three levels of a defense.  He played safety for a junior college, but has the size to play defensive end and the speed to play linebacker or safety.  Powell played at the lowest level possible, so it’s hard to judge speed fairly, but he looked fast and there’s a little Bobby Boucher in him as a hitter.  Powell could be a player to keep an eye on in the very late rounds as Seattle likes versatile players with physicality.

Jamie Collins (4.64): Collins made a name for himself at the combine with a towering 41.5″ vertical jump and a combine best broad jump.  Collins played mostly standup end and when he wasn’t doing that he was a 3-point stance end.  He plays the position like a linebacker though, which is why he is often listed as one.  Collins doesn’t handle blocks well and plays mentally slow.  He did have good production, but he played in a small conference and his tape hardly wows.  In a lot of ways, Collins reminds me of a slower Korey Toomer.  Mid to late round projection.

Sio Moore (4.65): Moore is a one of the better linebackers in this draft and boasts one of the most compete packages of skills.  He is worth respecting as a LEO type pass rusher, he’s quick to diagnose, he reads a quarterback’s eyes in zone coverage while trying to hide his presence by staying low, and he’s a good tackler.  If only he had Gooden’s speed, he’d be a star.  Unfortunately, Moore’s speed on tape looks as average as his combine number indicates.  I personally don’t think he’s fast enough for Pete (same goes for Khaseem Green who ran a 4.71), but we’ll see.  Round two or three projection.

AJ Klein (4.66): Though average on the track, Klein is sneaky fast and explosive in short areas.  Klein rarely ventures behind enemy lines and makes his living on damage reducing tackles downfield.  Klein takes on blockers willingly without losing himself to them, and has excellent instincts and reaction speed.  He has the short area burst to be an effective zone coverage player.  Klein’s upside is fairly grounded, but he’s a natural linebacker and you might even say he’s a bargain bin version of Luke Kuechly with less speed and less upside.  Played middle linebacker.  Mid round projection.

Now, compare those times to what Seattle already has.  Smith a 4.44.  Wagner a 4.45.  Morgan a 4.46.  Toomer a 4.53.  Bradford a 4.56.  Wright a 4.75.  Seattle doesn’t need another slow run enforcer like Wright (Mike Morgan did a great job in that role during the preseason despite his size, and Bradford has the size and power to be a natural SAM).  The fastest linebacker in this whole draft might not even crack Seattle’s lineup.  Even the undeveloped athletes at linebacker would be less athletic than many of the options we already have.  That says to me that Seattle probably won’t invest big at linebacker this year, instead opting for a late round or undrafted prospect to bring in for competition.  I could potentially see Seattle showing interest in Arthur Brown if he slides.  A selection of Alec Ogletree, Khaseem Greene, or Sio Moore in the earlier rounds would surprise me.  Gooden, Washington, Williams, Powell and Collins strike me as the most realistic options as they will probably be selected in the rounds 4-7 range of the draft.

*(Interestingly, Malcolm Smith is the brother of Steve Smith the lesser (the one who had 1200+ yards with the Giants in 2009).  Steve Smith was a member of the St. Louis Rams last season.  Another linebacker with a famous brother, Arthur Brown is the brother of the Eagles breakout running back Bryce Brown.)

It’s spring forward tonight, meaning that we all lose an hour of sleep.  I was going to do my Tyler Eifert writeup tonight, but in the interest of getting some sleep I’ll just link this offseason plan– rife with rosterbation- that I just completed on the Seahawks.net forums.   It’s a long read but if you are into this kind of thing you might enjoy it.  I think it’s extremely doubtful that Seattle will draft a tight end in round 1, but if they did, I think Eifert would be the perfect match for our offense.

In the comments from the Justin Hunter topic yesterday, one name seemed to dominate the conversation:  Mark Harrison.  The predominant thought was that Seattle didn’t need to reach for Justin Hunter in round one if they could get a prospect like Mark Harrison much later.  I hadn’t watched much of Harrison yet, so I figured I’d explore this topic and share my thoughts.

Harrison stands 6’3″ at 231 pounds and ran a 4.46 forty at the combine.  There aren’t very many NFL receivers that play at 6’3″ 230, and even fewer that run fast while doing it.  Andre Johnson is one of the very few.  He’s 6’3″, 230, and ran in the 4.4’s during the 2003 draft run-up.  There are a lot of 6’4″ guys that might weigh 215, but stocky, heavy, tall, fast receivers are pretty unique.

I think the thing that surprises me the most about Harrison is his arm length.  I thought for certain that his arms would be shorter than Hunter’s, just going by the eyeball test.  Hunter has 33″ arms, which is a very good arm length for a receiver.  I thought Harrison might have 31″ or 32″ arms.  He has 35″ arms.  Few pass rushers in this draft have arms that long.  Only two other receivers cracked 34 inches.

Harrison also posted a 38.5″ vertical leap.

Watching Harrison, I have no idea why he’s not at least considered a 3rd round prospect.  Tony Pauline is a highly informed reporter in constant contact with NFL scouts, coaches, and executives, and while his draft rankings badly need an update, I tend to trust them (with a grain of salt, of course).  Those rankings don’t even list Mark Harrison in the top 160.

One of my favorite things to do when talking about a prospect is to try to dig up some nugget of information that almost nobody knows about.  I tried doing a google search on a quest for some Harrison reading, and well, there just wasn’t much out there.  Outside of a token article here and there, it doesn’t seem like a whole lot of people are talking about this guy.

Interestingly, Mark Harrison worked with star Chicago Bears’ wide receiver Brandon Marshall before the combine to work on his catching mechanics (as reported at Mocking The Draft).  He also asked for advice from former teammate Mohamed Sanu.

Harrison never posted a 1000 yard season in college.  He had just 583 yards (but had 6 touchdowns on just 44 receptions) last year.  In 2010, he had his best season with 829 yards and 9 touchdowns (also on just 44 receptions).  His yards per catch that season was an astronomical 18.8, which along with his touchdown numbers suggest that Harrison was a potent vertical threat at receiver.  His yards per catch dropped to 13.3 last season.

I wonder if his usage changed as the team transitioned from centering around Mohamed Sanu to centering around Brandon Coleman.  Coleman’s career yards per catch is an unbelievable 21.2.  Maybe the team handed the deep threat mantle to Coleman and used Harrison as more of an all-purpose receiver?

At the very least, Harrison’s 2010 season proves what he is capable of- monster per catch production- which hints at him being a strong deep threat target.  Last year Golden Tate and Sidney Rice posted very strong yards per target and touchdowns per target rates.  Their potency in the deep passing game played a large part in that.

One of the things I like about Harrison is that while he may not have Percy Harvin type foot quickness, and can turn upfield quickly and shows burst in his acceleration.  I don’t see that same kind of explosiveness in Justin Hunter, who clearly generates his speed through long strides.

Another thing I like- Harrison had a couple drops in this video, but I would think that’s an aberration based on his technique.  He typically extends his hands to the football  and always seems to take that extra moment after every catch to make sure he has the football before turning up field.  And at 9.66″, Harrison has some of the largest hands among this year’s receiver class.  It would be nice if he cut it out with the Willie Mays underhand stuff on deep throws though.  He needs to face the ball and present a target with his hands instead, as he does (and does well) when executing his curl routes.

It was frustrating to watch Rutgers use Harrison so rarely on slants.  Most of his receptions were on curl routes, with most of the rest of his targets coming on post routes.  In fairness, Harrison runs a sharp curl route, but I think he’s a great weapon running diagonally across the field.  The problem with a curl route is that they essentially kill yards after catch since the receiver is coming back to the football.  If Harrison was open running across the field, he could catch a well placed pass and then use his outstanding acceleration to turn the reception into a potential home run play since a tackle wouldn’t be imminent like it is on a curl route or a well covered post route.

Harrison shows good awareness when a defender is about to go for a desperation ankle tackle.  He fires his hamstrings to elevate his knees and ankles far off the ground, something that Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin often did last season when they sensed a defender might be about to go for their feet from behind.

I think Mark Harrison deserves a third round grade when compared to his peers in this draft class.  But in a draft class that has far too many 2nd and 3rd round prospects to actually go in those rounds, we’ll see 3rd round receivers falling into rounds four and beyond.  I think Harrison could be an excellent pick later on as Sidney Rice depth if the team opts for a more all purpose receiver early on, such as Ryan Swope or DeAndre Hopkins.

We know that Seattle will consider pass rush early in this draft, but it’s also likely that they will consider receiver somewhere during the early rounds, as they did for a backup running back in 2012.  Other greater, more pressing needs pushed running back to round four, but what if Seattle “loves” a receiver option enough to take him at #25?  I don’t consider it especially likely, but it is an option we must be mindful of, especially if the top pass rushers are all gone in the top 24 picks, which is unfortunately a real possibility.

Walterfootball broke a bit of an interesting story yesterday after talking with NFL scouts:

WalterFootall.com spoke with some scouts, including one from a receiver-needy team picking in the back half of the top 32. All believe that Hunter is likely to go in the first round. They said the Combine really helped Hunter with positive reports from his medical check and an excellent 40-yard dash time of 4.44 seconds…

Scouts told WalterFootball.com that they love the upside of Hunter. He has the size to work in the short to intermediate part of the field and speed to get vertical. They like his run-after-the-catch ability as well as his combination of size and speed. Hunter hasn’t received a lot of first-round buzz, but one team in the mid 20s said it would be ecstatic if he was on the board for its pick.

Hunter’s upside was another reason that scouts felt he was likely to go in the first round. They said in this draft class, players with big upside are very appealing in the late first round rather than those who are deemed safe.

At first glance, this seems like a dead giveaway that the scout in question was an employee of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks pick 25th afterall, and it doesn’t get any more “mid twenties” than 25.  Consider though, every team in the mid twenties range (23-27) could consider a first round receiver as a realistic option.

The Vikings are having issues with star Percy Harvin, and it seems decently likely that Harvin’s days in Minnesota are numbered, even if he remains a Viking in 2013.  The Vikings passing offense came apart completely after Harvin’s injury last year, so depth is an issue as well.  The Colts had a pleasant surprise from T.Y. Hilton in 2012, but they still heavily depend on Reggie Wayne who is 35 years old next season.  Hilton is just 5’9″ so pairing him with a big vertical receiver makes sense, especially for a vertically inclined quarterback like Andrew Luck.  The Packers will likely lose Greg Jennings in free agency and many people are mocking them a receiver at #26.  The Texans don’t have a ton of needs and are believed to be looking for a weapon to compliment Andre Johnson.  You look up enough mock drafts, you’ll see at least one for each those five teams in the 23 to 27 range that has them taking a receiver.  Surprisingly, the “mid-twenties” comment isn’t anything close to the giveaway it sounds like.

But what if that scout actually does work for the Seahawks?  At the very least, we have to consider it a 20% chance.  That’s enough to pay attention to, especially since I would have thought there was close to zero chance the Seahawks would consider Hunter that early before today.  Of course, it’s lying season, and maybe this is a tactic to help get a guy overdrafted.  Just the same, I want to explore the idea of Justin Hunter at #25 and see if it makes sense for Seattle to be “ecstatic” to see him there.

Justin Hunter is among the tallest receivers in this draft, standing just a shade under 6’4″ tall.  Rounding to the nearest inch, there isn’t a receiver in this draft that stands 6’4″ or above that runs a faster forty time than Hunter’s 4.44 time.  Eastern Kentucky’s Tyrone Goard (4.50) and Florida State’s Rodney Smith (4.51) come the closest.  Rutgers’ Mark Harrison clocked a 4.46 at 6’3″, Arkansas’ Chris Gragg had a 4.50 at the same height, and Virginia Tech’s Corey Fuller had a 4.43.  Da’Rick Rogers had a 4.52.  At 6’2″, Terrence Williams had a 4.52, and Cordarrelle Patterson clocked a 4.42.

In short, you won’t find a receiver in this draft with a better combination of height and speed than Justin Hunter.  His arms (33.25″) are tied for the 3rd longest at the combine among receivers.  His 39.5″ vertical was tied for the best among receivers.  His 11’4″ broad jump was in a class by itself.  He also has big 9.38″ hands, which was roughly 80th percentile in this receiver class.  Everything about Hunter’s measurables screams deep ball receiver.  Seattle has a quarterback who by his own admission has a sexy deep ball and likes to use it.  Seattle released Mike Williams last summer, and scrambled to replace his role on the team with other tall receivers with speed:  Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards.  They also brought in Evan Moore who was a jump ball threat in the red zone.  Only Edwards provided any real contribution, and none of them are currently a part of the team.

Seattle does have 6’4″ Sidney Rice, but their actions last year suggest that they want a tall receiver with speed and jump ball ability to act as insurance for Rice.  So yes, Seattle’s interest in Justin Hunter- purely as a physical prospect- makes complete sense.

So, is Justin Hunter actually any good?  Decide for yourself:

My take:

Hunter is fast, but isn’t a wizard at changing directions and won’t likely be much of a Golden Tate type playmaker with the ball in his hands.  I actually feel sorry for Hunter’s knees the way he throws his weight around on them, and I’m not surprised at all that Hunter had an ACL in 2011 based on the way his knees buckle from his running style.  On the other hand, consider that every video above was just one year after an ACL.  His 4.44 forty time was just 17 months after the injury, short of the 24 month full recovery time.  For a guy still recovering from an ACL, Hunter can certainly move.

Hunter does seem like a Pete Carroll type player.  He has good hands, but poor catching technique, often catching the ball too close to his body.  He can’t hold on to a contested pass to save his life either.  Swat away and it’s 2nd and 10.  Hunter also struggles to diagnose where the deep ball is going.  Sometimes he’ll hesitate and then realize he screwed up only to miss what should have been an easy deep reception.  Thankfully, all of these areas are coachable.  Pete likes fixer-upper projects:  guys with rare physical talent that need to be coached out of mistakes and sloppy technique.  You can’t coach a 4.44 forty yard dash at 6’4.”  Bruce Irvin, last year’s first round pick, was the epitome of that same philosophy.

For that matter, the term “ecstatic” itself sounds like an adjective that came from our war room; this regime certainly hasn’t lacked for energy or enthusiasm.  And if there is one team that views a player as a steal to the complete disagreement of Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, well, isn’t that the stereotypical first round pick for John Schneider?  Schneider’s “reachiness” in round one is more perception than truth, but regardless, he isn’t afraid of getting a ribbing from the media on draft day.  Not in the slightest.

I have reservations about Hunter’s health going forward: every cut he makes I am amazed how his wobbly little knees somehow hold up.  He already has an ACL on his health record, and every future ACL he tears will make the situation worse.  I also question the idea of reaching for a receiver in a draft that is loaded with value options.  That makes little sense to me.

That said, Justin Hunter gives Seattle something they certainly don’t have already (as depth).  Their actions last season suggest that this type of acquisition is a need, and still is one.  After Hunter leaves the board, you won’t find a truly comparable physical talent.  I could see this pick happening.  Especially if Seattle is more active in free agency with regards to defense than we anticipate.

Be sure to check out Rob’s article on Jarvis Jones if you missed it yesterday.

Last year, we predicted that Seattle would go pass rusher in round one.  We predicted Seattle would go linebacker in round two.  We predicted they’d go running back in round three and quarterback in round four.  I also thought they’d add a second linebacker, as well as a corner and safety in the later picks.

Basically, we completely nailed it, other than Seattle flip-flopping rounds three and four.  While it would be fun to brag, we had some help from some sources with close contacts to the front office, and that information proved extremely accurate, even if a few of the names we were given missed the mark.  Rob even remembers being told that quarterback had possibly moved to a round three priority about a month before the draft, and if we had adjusted for that, we would have basically batted a thousand last year in regards to guessing the order in which needs were addressed.  I remembered hearing that nugget about a quarterback, but for whatever reason I forgot to adjust my projection and was genuinely surprised (in an extremely good way) when Wilson was our 3rd round pick.

This year we’ve had less insider information to go with, which of course coincides with a draft that is widely considered one of the deepest and most unpredictable groups ever.  We are cranking out two articles almost every day and I still think we’ll come up well short of naming every realistic option in the earliest rounds.  Be ready for surprises.

During a recent press conference or interview, John Schneider talked about how there were nice “pockets” of talent here and there during this draft.  We understand that running back was considered to be a round 1-3 priority last year since they liked the talent pool in that area.  It ended up being pushed back one round, but they still got a very nice talent in Robert Turbin.  They thought that pass rusher had to be a very high priority.  They liked quarterback in rounds 4-6, although that was later bumped up to round three for a specific quarterback who’s stock was rising.  I would guess that John Schneider probably had an undrafted free agent pocket for receivers, as he added three UDFA receivers that year and later talked about how he thought it was a weak receiver class.  We saw a gap in this information and concluded that linebacker would be an early priority as well, probably the second round.

So what might those pockets look like this year?  I have no scoop to give you this time, so with nothing other than a few clues and my trusty gut, here are what I think the 2013 draft pockets might look like for the Seahawks this year:

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Interior Pass Rush:  Rounds 1-2.

LEO:  Rounds 1-4.

Wide Receiver:  Rounds 1-4.

Linebacker:  Rounds 2-5.

Offensive Tackle:  Rounds 3-5.

Corner:  Rounds 4-7.

Tight end:  Round 5-7.

Safety:  Rounds 5-7.

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Defensive tackle:

Seattle wants to improve their pass rush, and it will be an early priority if the exasperation in Pete Carroll’s voice after the Falcon’s game is any indication.  Good pass rushing defensive tackles are some of the rarest and most valuable players in the NFL.  They are extremely hard to project during the draft process.  I think that’s underscored by guys like Geno Atkins and Henry Melton, who are among the NFL’s best but were just 4th round picks.  In a draft where defensive line talent is (in my opinion) being overshot in evaluations, finding that mid round steal will be pretty hard this year.  If you even have the physical potential to be Melton or Atkins, you are going to leave the board very early this year.  Probably as a result of Seattle’s success, teams are starting to weigh upside more heavily than risk this year.

Further, there just aren’t a ton of physically gifted defensive tackles this year.  Only two defensive tackles posted forty times under five seconds.  Jones’ time was easily the fastest this year, but it would not have been the fastest in any of the four previous drafts.*   It’s hard to be a great pass rushing 3-tech if you don’t have speed, and there aren’t a ton of them with speed this year.  If you want a fast defensive tackle, your options are basically between Datone Jones, Sheldon Richardson, and Sharrif Floyd.  Floyd will be off the board in the top five.  Richardson will probably leave the board in the top twenty.  Jones will probably leave the board in the late teens to late twenties.  If you want one of these potential difference makers, it’s starting to look like you’d need to take him in round one, if you were fortunate enough to get the chance.

*Interestingly, there are some really good defensive tackles just ahead of Datone (4.80) Jones in the speed rankings over the last 4 years:  Henry Melton (4.65), Geno Atkins (4.75), Cameron Jordan (4.74 official), Fletcher Cox (4.77).  So there is a pretty good correlation between speed and production.  Fun fact: Jaye Howard (4.83), Clinton McDonald (4.83), and Jason Jones (4.76) all ran forties at or under 4.83.   I think it’s safe to say this isn’t a coincidence.  It appears Seattle is aware that speed kills at defensive tackle.

The Seahawks could wait for round two, but I don’t think they’d pass on Richardson or Datone Jones if they were available, not unless Werner or Jarvis Jones fell, and the reasons that caused that fall didn’t apply to the Seahawks.  I am reasonably sure that Seattle would take Datone Jones over more “touted” outside rushers like Barkevious Mingo.  Seattle can get a backup LEO later, but if they want a difference making interior pass rusher, it has to be very early.

In the event that none of those three defensive tackles make it, Seattle might possibly trade down or consider the best remaining option in round two if they don’t like Kawann Short enough to take him this early.  Candidates in round two include Brandon Williams, Sylvester Williams, and (if I had my druthers) John Simon.  I have a really hard time envisioning a draft where Seattle does not select a defensive tackle in the first two rounds, barring an unexpectedly fruitful free agency (such as signing Desmond Bryant while also retaining Jason Jones).

LEO:

Last year I watched Bruce Irvin with a focused eye every week, and when he was rarely put in true three down situations (i.e. not against a two-minute offense), the near automatic result was that Irvin vanished.  Irvin is a special athlete who creates pressure mostly from a blistering edge rush, but since his repertoire is so limited he has to commit fully to that one tactic and to beat NFL tackles.  With such a one dimensional attack Irvin has had no choice but to sell out as a pass rusher to achieve results.

Irvin has the speed to be a LEO, but not the technique, not the size, and maybe not the strength.  Irvin showed some good strength in college as a bullrusher, but after last season that strength did not appear to translate in the NFL.  Because Irvin is undersized and underpowered, he must sell out to stop the run.  Part of what makes Chris Clemons so great is that he can seamlessly play both the run and the pass on every play, doing an outstanding job in both areas.  Compare that to Irvin, who has to sell out as a pass rusher to get sacks, and has to sell out as a run stopper to not get killed as a run stopper.  Bruce Irvin did look like an ideal LEO in college, but in 2012 he did not.

I’m not ruling out the possibility of Irvin developing.  After all, Chris Clemons himself entered the NFL as a 236 pound linebacker, and had a reputation as a poor run defender for many years before arriving in Seattle.  It took a long time, but he turned into a terrific all around defensive end.  Irvin is much more gifted physically than Clemons, a 2003 UDFA, was.  As one of Irvin’s very biggest fans before the 2012 draft, I won’t be the guy to put limits on his potential.

Regardless, that day when Irvin becomes a complete player is not assured, and if/when it does happen, it’s not likely to be in time for the 2013 opener.  With Clemons turning 32 next season and coming off an ACL, Seattle can’t afford to risk being in position to force Irvin into a role he’s not ready for. When Pete talked about needing pass rushers in the plural, I’m sure it was for this exact reason.  We need depth, and preferably an improved future at pass rushing end.

With the rest of the league playing copycat and looking for the next Bruce Irvin type, Seattle probably won’t be able to wait long if they want a quality option at LEO.  If they rate Werner as being athletic enough, or if they rate Jarvis Jones as healthy enough, they might strongly consider either at #25 if a dramatic draft fall occurs for either one.  Barkevious Mingo will probably not reach Seattle’s pick, but he could be considered as well.

I think a more likely scenario is that Seattle goes for a defensive tackle like Richardson, Jones, or Short in round one, and then hope to get Corey Lemonier in round two.  If Lemonier is gone at #58, Seattle might consider a few other options in the rounds 2-4 range.

While Alex Okafor seems far too slow to be a classic LEO, he is a complete defensive end with good run defense, good size, and an excellent pass rush repertoire (as well as good college production).  Given that even a young, 236 pound Clemons didn’t have blistering speed, I would guess that last year’s Chris Clemons probably wouldn’t beat Okafor in a footrace by much.  So in a situation where the best fast options are all gone, Okafor could come into play if he’s there in round two.  I would keep an eye on Armonty Bryant as a 3rd or 4th round option as well.  Like Okafor, he doesn’t have LEO speed, but has other dominant traits that more than compensate. Brandon Jenkins opted not to run at the combine, and he looks like he’s a decent but not great 4.7 on tape (my estimate).  He had a rough combine in drills, although I think his tape is pretty good- he’s definitely a natural LEO in terms of how he plays the position.  Cornelius Carradine might be an option in this range as well.

If Seattle is adamant about drafting for speed at LEO, Margus Hunt, Ty Powell, Devin Taylor, Cornelius Washington and Trevardo Williams bring excellent athleticism but are completely undeveloped.  And in the case of Williams, I think he’s probably a 4-3 linebacker anyway.  Devin Taylor posted a so-so 4.72 forty time, but I’m intrigued with his 1.59 ten yard split and he had a very strong combine overall.

Wide Receiver:

Seattle needs depth at receiver and is hoping for an upgrade as well.  Seattle likes fast receivers with quick feet that can gain yards after the catch.  They will probably prefer a receiver with deep ball skills, so either one that is fast and tall or one that is fast and can jump high.  I think they will rate Cordarrelle Patterson very highly, and if he’s there Seattle will have an interesting decision to make.  Keenan Allen and Tavon Austin could be worth monitoring in round one as well.  More likely, Seattle will keep tabs on options during the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  In an extreme case, I could see Seattle waiting until the 4th round, as this receiver class is incredibly deep.

I expect Seattle will look to add a second receiver in the very late rounds or in UDFA.  This group of receivers is too good to walk out with just one.

Linebacker:

It’s a very thin linebacker class this year, and Pete’s tone of contentment in a recent interview when discussing his “USC backup crew” (Malcolm Smith, Allen Bradford, Mike Morgan) makes me think he’s not too panicked about the position.  Rather than talking about upgrading at weakside linebacker, Pete instead talked about finding “competition” for them.  Basically, a peer among a group that includes just one player drafted as a linebacker:  Malcolm Smith in the 7th round.  Smith posted a 4.44 forty, Morgan a 4.46, and Bradford a 4.56.  All would be among the very fastest among the linebackers this year.  Practice squad player Korey Toomer clocked a 4.53 himself.

Alec Ogletree did not run the fastest forty, but is a gifted athlete.  Arthur Brown drew rave reviews from Carroll coming out of high school, and is a sideline to sideline speedster.  Khaseem Greene has average speed but has a great nose for the ball.  You can see some players that might rate highly early, but I just think other needs will likely trump linebacker.  I think it could be an emergency option in the event where the draft board at pass rusher and receiver do not fall kindly for Seattle, but my guess is that Seattle probably looks at linebacker in the middle rounds.  Zaviar Gooden probably makes the most sense of all the fast linebackers available.

Offensive Tackle:

Seattle’s interest in Jordan Mills confirms that they are looking into offensive tackle.  Mills is considered to be a mid-round prospect, although the report mentioned that Seattle might select Mills “earlier than you might think.”  We’ll see.  Unless Seattle absolutely loves freak athlete Menelik Watson, I can’t really see them drafting a tackle in round one or two.

Breno Giacomini was a penalty machine in the first half of last season, but down the stretch he seemed to get his act together.  A polarizing player, Giacomini could be our worst lineman one week and our best lineman the next.  I do not think Seattle is unhappy with Giacomini, but they might want to improve our depth situation at tackle.  Frank Omiyale is a free agent, and Paul McQuistan is a free agent in 2014.  Giacomini himself is in a contract year.  So being proactive with the tackle situation in the 2013 draft makes sense.

Corner:

Seattle has drafted a corner every year since Pete took over, but never did they spend higher than a 4th round pick on one.  In a year where as many as twenty corners are expected to go in the first 100 picks, we might see Seattle snag a corner a little earlier than we’re used to as a reaction to the behavior of the market.  There are a very high number of fast corners with decent size this year.

Tight end:

Seattle got very good production out of Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy on a per-target basis last year.  Miller may not be cheap, but he proved late in the season- especially in the postseason- how indispensable he is.    While I really like Zach Ertz and think that Tyler Eifert is a perfect fit for Seattle, I just can’t see Seattle taking tight end in the early rounds with several other areas being much bigger areas for upgrade.  I expect Seattle to look for a mid to late round value addition such as Travis Kelce or perhaps tweener Chris Gragg.  The futures contract given to Darren Fells yesterday might also hint at the kind of investment at tight end Seattle is targeting for a 3rd option.

Safety:

The Winston Guy pick didn’t work out quite as hoped in 2012, and while I highly doubt they will give up on him just like that, Seattle could certainly look to add competition to the “big nickle” safety role currently held down by Jeron Johnson.  Chris Maragos (a free agent) has provided the speedy safety depth needed for Earl Thomas the last couple years.  Will Seattle bring Maragos back or seek an upgrade?

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Free agency could modify priorities, but I’m not really expecting that.  Seattle wants to build through the draft.  I think we’ll see a few complimentary signings.  With Melton, Starks, and Johnson all being franchised, and talk that Cliff Avril will get megabucks, I don’t really see a likely scenario where the Seahawks draft plans change all that much based on free agency.  That said, I’d love to see them be active at defensive tackle.  I’d really hate to see us lose both Jones and Branch.  Branch was a great contributor in 2011 and Jones was definitely helping before he got injured.

I don’t know if this is what John Schneider’s draft pockets actually look like, but hopefully I’m at least close.  Last year was a lot of fun in large part because we felt prepared for what Seattle was going to do.  It’s much more fun and interesting when the Seahawks draft players we actually know something about.

Note:  Be sure to check out Rob’s article on Andy Reid below if you haven’t seen it already.  Rob tends to post articles in the early afternoons, while I tend to post them in the dead of night.  Often times we might bury each other’s work, so be sure to always scroll down and check.  I’ve noticed that comment activity seems to be much higher on articles that top the page.  We’d like to churn out content rapidly but one of the downsides is a shorter window for exposure and comment activity.  Rest assured that if you comment in a lower article we always try to read through and answer your questions.  So please don’t hesitate.  We generally check the comments for a day or two, sometimes more if it’s highly active.

Darrelle Revis was a Hall of Fame caliber player before his ACL.  Will he bounce back?  Will he leave after one season and be an expensive rental?  There are a lot of scenarios where dealing for Revis doesn’t make much sense.  I think it’s a reason why the market for Revis at least appears to be cooling down a bit.

So that begs the question: at what point does the price make sense for Revis and the risk that comes with him? The Seahawks didn’t think that Matt Flynn made sense for them last offseason, primarily because they expected him to get Kevin Kolb money. When it became apparent this was not the case, Seattle’s interest was ignited and they ultimately pulled the trigger after viewing Flynn’s developing contract situation as an opportunity.  I’m not sure if Seattle is wild about paying two firsts for Revis, but if the cost comes down enough, I think Seattle will have interest.  The question becomes: where would a deal begin to make sense?

First you have to determine how much Revis is actually worth. That leads me to a series of questions:

How will Revis play coming off an ACL injury?

A few years ago, the ACL injury probably would have killed Revis’ trade value almost completely, but in recent years there have been many cases of players returning to full strength after such an injury. Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, etc. Revis has speed to spare (4.38 forty) and that seems to be the common link between those who bounced back the best from the injury. You can’t rule out the impact completely, but it’s not insane to think that you’d get Revis type production from Revis in 2013. The injury does increase the risk though, and will certainly effect the Jets’ asking price.

How likely is Revis to be retained after 2013 and what might his market price be?

Revis can’t be franchised after next season and is seeking an insane amount of money in free agency. Whichever team trades for Revis will have zero leverage in contract talks and it’s considerably likely that Revis will hit open free agency next year. And if that happens, it’s anyone’s guess where he ends up. Overall, I’d say it’s likely that whichever franchise trades for Revis is getting a rental.

That said, don’t overlook the “upside” of actually landing Revis in a long term deal after 2013. Teams that make trades for rental types have generally enjoyed a bit of an inside track on getting the next contract. I think at least some of Revis’ high demands come from the fact that he plays for a lousy Jets team and probably wants out. If Seattle makes a deep playoff run (which I think is pretty likely) and Revis believes he is on the NFL’s best team, it’s going to make it harder to take that slightly better offer from the Jacksonville Jaguars or Cleveland Browns next march. Revis is already very rich, and I think the next contract is really more of an ego thing. If you make him the highest paid corner, that might be enough.

The highest paid corners in the NFL made around $11 million last season. Revis wants $16 million a year. Maybe after a very positive experience in 2013, he might sign back in the $12-$14 million range. FWIW, when you compare Revis to other high paid NFL players, I think he justifies that kind of salary pretty easily. He’s one of the most valuable non-QB players in the league. Or to look at it another way, is Revis worth as much as Zach Miller and Alan Branch combined? Because that’s what $12 to 14 million in salary looks like. Of course, you don’t want to lose essential players so we’re just talking dollars in expendable/luxury players.

It would be nice if we had a “wins over replacement” type stat in football as they do in baseball, then the calculation of Revis’ worth would be very easy. We don’t, but consider that this is a league where Brandon Flowers, Leon Hall, Chris Gamble, DeAngelo Hall, Nnamdi Asomugha, and an old Champ Bailey all made $8 to $11 million at the cornerback position last season. A league where good #2 corners like Brandon Carr get 5/50 contracts.

I genuinely feel that if you get Revis back on a 5/60 or 5/70 contract (which would make him the highest paid corner in the league by a good margin), you are getting a more than solid return on your investment. If he proves healthy and as good as ever.

How much is Revis worth purely as a rental?

If you deal for Revis, what is a reasonable price in the event he’s just a rental for one season? His cap hit is a reasonable $9 million in 2013. As expressed above, I think even $14 million is a fair price for a contributor of his magnitude. So his 2013 salary of $9 million is a plus, in my opinion.

Paying a 1st round pick in the event of a rental is far too much. I think a late 2nd rounder sounds about right though for a team that is front and center for the Superbowl discussion entering the 2013 season. To be clear, I think a late 2nd rounder is an overpay for one season of any player, but there is a higher chance to have Revis beyond 2013 if you trade for him and that added chance carries value.

I also think that one season of Revis carries a lot more value to a team like Seattle than it would to a middling team because it would make a hard team to beat that much tougher. Even if Revis leaves, would anyone complain about burning the #64 pick if the Revis trade helped us win a Superbowl? In a worst case scenario, Seattle fails to win it all, Revis walks, and the pick is lost. That’s not a good situation. So there’s risk to weigh.  Even in that worst scenario, there is tangible value in having Revis for one season.  Look at what major league baseball teams pay for star rentals at the trade deadline- for less than half a season.  They pay through the nose.  Sure, different sport, different value paradigms, but I think the upside of winning a championship or keeping Revis long term counterbalances the risk of having a 2nd round pick potentially burned.

How will Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis coexist?  Do they magnify each other’s value or diminish it?

It’s hard to tell how Revis and Sherman would coexist as teammates. I think they’d make up pretty quickly, as Sherman is really more of a joker than a jerk and Revis certainly didn’t seem to be holding any grudges during his interview with Sherman teammate Michael Robinson.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_95245&feature=iv&src_vid=yqx1zoUskB4&v=NKx-jj0H1RY

It would be a really interesting competition dynamic to be sure, with both players competing for interceptions and big plays. I have to wonder if that very reason might be why Seattle was “highly interested” in Revis at the dawn of the trade talks. You know our coach loves competition, and a Revis-Sherman competition would be among the most epic in the history of the sport.

Having Revis on the field means more passes than usual will target Sherman, and vice versa. I think it would probably be a good thing forcing quarterbacks to throw more passes in Sherman’s direction, as well as Revis’. The passer rating on passes targeting Sherman and Revis are absurdly low. Combine that with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond covering the number three and four options, and you are looking at a secondary for the ages.

So here is where I think a trade begins to make sense for Seattle

Seattle trades a conditional 2014 pick. If Revis gets re-signed and remains with the Seahawks beyond the 2013 season, the Jets receive our 2014 1st round pick. If Revis signs with another team in free agency, the Jets receive a 2014 2nd round pick instead. If Revis proves his worth and signs an extension to remain here, he is easily worth a 1st round pick and the money we pay him, especially since that 1st round pick will probably be a very late one.

And before anyone flips out of the mythical value of a 1st round pick, consider the options Seattle had in the late first back in 2011, 2008, 2006, 2005, and 2004. Those picks turned into James Carpenter, Lawrence Jackson, Kelly Jennings, Chris Spencer, and Marcus Tubbs. You look at the late 1st round most years and it’s not nearly as good as you might imagine. It’s hardly a lock to get a star. Although I do love the late 1st this year, but that’s beside the point and trust me, this year is pretty uncommon in it’s depth.  Anyway, he justifies that cost if he’s extended.  This is Darrelle Revis we’re talking about, not Deion Branch.

And while I’m sure people are sick of hearing this, it’s possible that the Jets could have a degree of interest in Matt Flynn as competition for Mark Sanchez and that could have a minor impact on the trade details as well.

Maybe the Jets get a better offer elsewhere. I am not saying that we must trade for Revis at all costs. But I think if an offer like this is possible, at this type of risk/reward, the balance of the deal becomes one worth making.