Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 5 of 13)

I usually wait until around December before I start scouting prospects.  Werner was one of the first I watched, and he quickly shot to the top of my draft board.  At the time, he was considered a mid first round prospect.  By the Senior Bowl, he had vaulted into “top five lock” status.

I’m not sure what happened after that.  Reports from NFL scouts began surfacing, saying that they viewed Werner as being just okay.  Good, but not special.  Mike Mayock stated that he didn’t think Werner would be a top ten pick.  Insiders reported that scouting opinions on Werner were polarized.  And all of this occurred before February’s NFL combine in Indianapolis.

Dion Jordan and Ezekial Ansah had two of the more over-rated combine performances in recent memory, posting much slower times in drills than guys like Von Miller or Bruce Irvin in recent years.  But even a 4.6 forty looks pretty electric in this pass rusher class, where big names like Werner and Moore were big disappointments.  Werner ran a 4.81 time, which is actually slower than defensive tackle Datone Jones (4.80).  Jones’ had a superior 10 yard split as well.

This can’t help Werner’s draft stock, especially as Dion Jordan and Ezekiel Ansah are rocketing up boards.  Barkevious Mingo seems to be holding steady as a mid first rounder.  Russ Lande’s most recent mock even has Corey Lemonier going 15th overall.  I can’t help but think that the sudden rise of undeveloped athlete pass rushers and the decline of the slower more physical pass rushers is a sign that the league has noticed what Seattle is doing.

It might help Werner that Jarvis Jones is tanking as well on account of his medical status, and Damontre Moore has been exposed as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect.  That might be enough to keep Werner in the top 20 picks or so.  But what if it’s not?

In terms of teams that need pass rushers at defensive end, there only so many of them, and most of them pick very early.  Sharrif Floyd, Ziggy Ansah, and Dion Jordan all look like top five candidates.  The Jets need a pass rusher at #9, but they run a 3-4 defense and Werner would be an oddball for most 3-4 defenses.  The Titans run a 4-3 defense and might pursue a defensive end, but they have needs all over the place.  The Saints need pass rush help, but are converting to a 3-4 defense.  Then you have the Steelers, who also run a 3-4 but have a history of drafting bigger, slower 3-4 outside linebackers like James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Jason Worilds.  Werner going to the Steelers could make some sense, but as a player who would have to transition to playing standing up instead of on all fours, not to mention that he runs like a fast defensive tackle, even they might pass.

After that you have the Colts, maybe.  Again, a 3-4 defense.  Seattle would then be next at #25.  If teams don’t have a first round grade on Werner as a 3-4 outside linebacker, he could end up a surprise faller on draft day, all the way to Seattle’s pick.

Now comes part two of this discussion:  would Seattle draft Werner?  That poses an interesting question.  I’m not sure if they would.

Seattle drafted Bruce Irvin who ran an official 4.50 forty.  Pete Carroll raved about Irvin’s speed and even called him the “ideal LEO,” a statement he probably wouldn’t have repeated immediately after the Falcon’s game.  Regardless, Pete’s choice of words seemed to indicate that he puts a premium on speed with his pass rush prospects.  Seattle also drafted Dexter Davis who clocked a 4.62 forty and Jameson Konz.  Konz ran a 4.41 forty time and was eventually moved to LEO before being released.

On the other hand, Chris Clemons is probably slower today than he was as a 23 year old 236 pound linebacker coming out of Georgia, and even that Chris Clemons only managed a 4.68.  Raheem Brock had a career year in our system with 10 sacks (including playoffs) during the 2010 season.  Depending on which website you ask, he either ran either a 4.74 or a 4.91.  And it’s probably safe to assume he wasn’t quite that fast during his age 32 season.  Werner’s speed is probably in the neighborhood of both these guys, and both had great success in our system.

Werner looks every bit of his 4.81 time when in coverage or pursuit, but his burst off the snap is at an elite level despite that.  Werner often plays in a four point stance and he uses that stance to coil his body for maximum explosion on the snap.  Werner is a bit of a one trick pony in that he is at his best as a basic edge rusher, and is not as special when trying to spin inside or stunt.  Werner combines an explosive get off with an aggressive downhill angle while keeping his shoulders square- meaning that his inside shoulder is aiming at the tackles chest.  Werner’s signature is then using his inside arm to reach around the tackles outside shoulder and use his excellent arm strength to defeat the incoming punch.  Because Werner’s chest is not available as a target (see picture above), tackles often fail on their initial punch, allowing Werner to explode through the missed block, slipping around the edge.

Werner can bull rush fairly well and can easily shove tackles off balance.  Though he’s obviously very different from JJ Watt, I think it’s the reliance on upper body strength that is the basis of what was for a while a popular comparison.

I think a better comparison is Chris Long of the St. Louis Rams.  Long also plays in a four point stance and has very strong arms.  Long ran a 4.75 forty time at his combine, but plays plenty fast on the football field.  Werner is 6’3″ and 266 pounds.  Long is 6’3″ and 270 pounds.  I think Long is a superior prospect because he is a better athlete and has a more complete pass rush repertoire, but if you said Werner was a poor man’s Chris Long you wouldn’t be off by much.

Bottom line, Werner is a strength based pass rusher that uses excellent edge rush technique and benefits tremendously from an explosive get off.  Within the first second or two, his forty time might as well be irrelevant since he is so explosive in his first few steps.  Werner can spin inside, bull through blockers, and rip through arm blocks, but all those techniques are merely adequate.  Werner’s star power comes from his edge rush, which is why he edge rushes on almost every pass rush attempt.  Werner has decently long arms (33.25″) but plays like he has 35″ arms on tape, I guess just because of how he protects his body from the initial punch and from his pure arm strength.

Werner is inconsistent against the run.  He can get destroyed by a road grader if he isn’t careful, although he usually plays the run smart, even if he doesn’t dominate.  Basically, he’s about what you’d expect from a LEO in run defense, and I’d grade him ahead of alternatives such as Barkevious Mingo or Corey Lemonier as a run defender.

Like Chris Long, I don’t think Werner’s speed hurts him much as a pass rusher.  But speed still matters.  Beating Colin Kaepernick twice is job number one next season.  Seattle will also drop their defensive ends into coverage from time to time.  You don’t want a 4.81 athlete put in those situations.

While I used the argument of Clemons and Brock, I should also point out that both were cheap acquisitions.  Clemons was a throw in as part of the Tapp trade.  Brock was signed off the street in 2010 to a minimum contract.  Seattle’s draft history, though limited, has shown that speed matters.  When Seattle is bargain hunting at the NFL’s garage sale and they see a good buy that won’t saddle them for a decade, they tend to be less picky.

So what will they do if Werner unexpectedly falls into our lap at #25?  It’s a similar situation with John Simon, actually.  Though both are excellent pass rushing prospects, I’m just not convinced they pass the “athlete test” that Seattle seemingly always applies to their draft picks.  John Schneider has recently said himself that his staff grades for athleticism first before moving on to grade for any other criteria.  This regime has a clear history of drafting athletic, versatile, explosive players.  And outside of his get off being explosive, I’m not sure any of those three adjectives apply to Werner.

My guess is that Werner will never be a Seahawk, and I think that’s kind of a shame.  Maybe he won’t reach our pick and we’ll never know either way.  Or maybe he does reach our pick, and we’ll have fifteen interesting minutes to wonder to ourselves what might happen.

One of my regrets is that I often find myself saving my best write-ups and ideas for posts on the Seahawks.net draft message board, while sometimes failing to transfer those thoughts over here at Seahawks Draft Blog.  That was especially true last year for Russell Wilson.  Some of my best works have been on message boards.  I have put as much as 36 hours into a message board post on a few occasions, ranging as high as 3,000 to 5,000 words.  How anyone reads them, I have no idea.

Well here I am, another year and I am doing it again.  Some topics aren’t quite blog appropriate, but today I’m linking a couple of works over there that you might find worthwhile reads. Continue reading

Last year we knew that Seattle needed a quarterback.  Insider whispers as well as vague comments from our coach and GM implied this quarterback search would not be early.  I still remember John Schneider saying there was one great quarterback “that nobody was talking about.”  Intrigued, I began a writeup series studying the late round quarterbacks to see what was out there, and if possible, find out if this mythical quarterback really existed.

None of my non-internet friends are Seahawks fans.  I have a friend who is a Packers fan, and I have a friend who is a Broncos fan, and neither spend much time following the NFL Draft.  If I ever want to talk Seahawks without typing, it means talking my family members ears off, mostly my brother.  Which I’m sure they appreciate, for the first 30 seconds or so.  Maybe.

One day, I mentioned to my father that I was looking into late round quarterbacks, and mentioned to him the existence of “the one” whom our GM cryptically spoke of.  Instantly, he mentioned Russell Wilson.  “Insisted” might be a better word.  “You have to see him.  I think he’s the real deal.”

I had faintly heard of the name, only to remember how Rob had dismissed it.  I trust Rob’s judgement, and combated my dad’s enthusiasm.  My dad is about as great a football savant as any dad is.  He ain’t Bill Belichick.   Although to his credit, he did predict Giants over Patriots before that same season.  So he might have ESP.  Can’t rule that out.

I am not ashamed to admit, I had never watched Russell Wilson before that point.  I don’t follow college football so much as follow the prospects, and Wilson had never been on any prospect watch lists.  In retrospect, I think that blank slate played to my advantage, because I broke down his tape without preconception.  It took less than one drive before my enthusiasm for Wilson exceeded his.

I mentioned Wilson a few times here and there on the blog.  I promised to write a special article on him but never got around to it.  However, on the draft board section of the Seahawks.net message boards, I was singing Wilson’s praises, and at one time was even caught with my pants down when Brandon Adams (of 17power) posted a Russell Wilson love letter I sent him in the fieldgulls comments.  I defended Wilson there, I told everyone who would listen at Seahawks.net that he was the guy.  I told them that his height wouldn’t hurt him because of the release point, the line he was playing behind, the skill he showed with throwing lanes, his spontaneous genius and his incredible feel for the game.  I even went so far as to say that he was “the Tom Brady you could see coming” at Mockingthedraft.

But I was more cautious with sharing that sentiment here, outside of ranking him #3 on my quarterback rankings ahead of Ryan Tannehill, and espousing my love for the pick right after it happened.  I really wish I had gushed more, and sooner.  It is my greatest regret of the 2012 draft season.

When the 2012 draft finally came, it was a pretty interesting experience.  Watching day one of the draft among a hundred or so Seahawks fans and a couple of radio talk show personalities, I told everyone within earshot of me that they’d love the Bruce Irvin pick, even if I wasn’t sure of the value at the time.  I never thought he’d be a first rounder, but Irvin was one of just two players I badly wanted to see Seattle walk out of the draft with.  When I wrote my draft reaction that night on this blog, I mentioned that the other player I felt we had to have was Russell Wilson.  I even joked that it would be something if Seattle took Wilson with their next pick in the second round.

I didn’t really expect Wilson to be picked at #75.  I thought they might try for him in the 4th.  Funny enough, my brother had to work that next day and I ended up watching day two with my dad, the very same person that tuned me into Wilson in the first place.  I truly believed that Wilson was the next great quarterback, but even worse, he was there for the taking.  That third round was agonizing.  Would somebody take him before the Seahawks?  When that Marine spoke the word “Russell” we were already on our feet screaming and high fiving.  It was an unbelievable, almost spiritual experience.  I guess it was a nice father-son moment too, something I will always remember.

We weren’t the only ones celebrating.  John Schneider and Pete Carroll, who were on camera during the draft, seemed quite enthused after the pick themselves.  Pete Carroll held a press conference, during which he compared Russell Wilson to Fran Tarkenton, even saying that he had spoken with Tarkenton’s former coach about him.  But it was John Schneider who said something most awesome, during a radio interview I believe.  He mentioned that there were two players it would have hurt to walk out of the draft without:  Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson.  The same two players that were my favorite out of that entire draft.  It was pretty cool hearing that.

That experience taught me that sometimes a player can be great even if he doesn’t have the measurables, even if he’s not “cool to like.”  Sometimes you just see greatness, and while there are many productive players who do not see their games translate to the next level, it seems like the truly special ones usually find a way.

If there is something I learned from last year, it’s that I’ll never hide my feelings about a prospect again.  I don’t care if it makes me look silly or out of touch.  I will tell you what I’m seeing, and I’ll tell you who this year’s Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson are.  The guys it would hurt to walk out of the draft without.  You might think I’m way off the mark, but I don’t care.

Here it goes.

Seattle needs to increase their pass rush in the interior, and they need to boost their pass rush depth on the outside as well.  There is a nice “pocket” in the draft for pass rushing end types in the middle rounds, guys like Corey Lemonier, Armonty Bryant, Cornelius Washington, and a few others.  That depth as a pocket pushing defensive tackle is less evident, which is why I think Seattle will probably be forced to grab a defensive tackle fairly early, and highlighted the early round options a few days ago.   Truth be told, this isn’t a great year to find a pass rush defensive tackle.

Then I went back and re-watched a favorite of mine.  A hybrid defensive lineman in a 4-3 front, he played strong side end, LEO, and the 3-tech.  A star for a major program during a quietly great season, he is generally considered too small to play defensive tackle and is too slow to play end at the NFL level, by the same people who thought Russell Wilson was too short to be an NFL quarterback.  And yet this undersized wonder was by far the most unblockable 3-tech I’ve seen in his draft, hands down.  Playing most of his snaps at strong side end, he was no less disruptive there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNAxf60wBas

Though because of his 6’1″ height and lack of weight, coupled with below average foot speed, many have projected him as a 3-4 outside linebacker.  And I’m sure he’d be great in such a role.  A common comparison for John Simon is Mike Vrabel, who funny enough, is Simon’s assistant head coach at Ohio State.

But as a 4-3 prospect, Simon is seemingly ignored.  Like Wilson, Simon is a diamond in plain sight, a player who’s fantastic ability in a 4-3 defense is overlooked because conventional thinking says he can’t succeed in the same capacity at the next level.

Simon weighed in at 257 at the combine.  It seems likely that Simon dropped weight for the combine to appeal to 3-4 teams looking for an outside linebacker.  According to an interview he had this time last year, he played the 2011 season at 270 pounds.  That’s just ten pounds lighter than JJ Watt, and it’s actually two pounds heavier than Justin Tuck.  The game film of Simon shows that he’s a better run defender than you’d think against drive blocks, even beating a drive block double team at the 3-tech spot to force a tackle for loss.  He actually looks very much in his element as a 3-tech, but he’s no slouch as a strong side defensive end either.  While it’s true that Simon lacks footspeed and highly mobile quarterbacks can run around him from a defensive end spot, the same is true for JJ Watt.  And I’d say he’s done okay for himself.

Simon may not always be a maestro against the run, but it’s clear he at least has surprising strength to anchor and has a nose for the football.  He won’t even come close to Bruce Irvin’s forty time or Red Bryant’s size, but I could see him being an undersized yet still highly effective Jason Jones type player- one who rotates between the 3-tech and the 5-tech.  He might need to add weight, but he’d only need to add six pounds on his playing weight to hit 276- the weight that Jones played at during last season.

I think Simon can pull it off, and if he does, I think he’ll be a complete player for the Seahawks.  His upper body strength and ability to both push the pocket and shed blocks is incredible.  And remarkably consistent.  This is a guy who gets pressure or quarterback movement on most of his pass rushing snaps.  More than anyone in this draft, John Simon is a badass in the phone booth.  You will not contain him for long without a double team.

Simon is more than a special talent.  He’s also a special person and leader.  Ohio State coaches have said he’s one of the best leaders they’ve ever seen come through the program.  Simon injured his shoulder in week two, but downplayed the injury to coaches and still went on to post 9 sacks in 11 games, including four sacks in his final college game, after which his shoulder gave out, forcing him to sit out the season finale.  When coaches asked about his health earlier in the season, he replied “I’ll be ready. My shoulder is far away from my heart.”  All this for a team on probation with no chance for a national title or bowl game.

Listen to Urban Meyer gush about Simon.

“He makes all of us look in the mirror and ask ourselves ‘are we doing enough for our team’?”  Meyer also joked about naming his son after John Simon, and has called Simon “Tebowish” as a leader, both on the field and off it during workouts.  Usually when a coach gushes about one of his players this much, it’s worth paying attention to.  Just ask Bret Bielema.

Whereas Wilson is the first person at the building to break down film, Simon is well known to be the first person at the building to begin his workout routines, often dragging some less enthusiastic teammates with him.  Simon is the ultimate competitor, the kind of leader a young up and coming defense needs.

Simon did not boost his draft stock at the 2013 combine.  My other “must have” played did.

Last year I scouted four Texas A&M games for my Ryan Tannehill scouting report.  Sometimes when you scout for a specific player other players will jump off the screen and grab your attention.  In every game I watched, his go to receiver was a physically ordinary looking white possession receiver, Ryan Swope.  Players of certain races at certain positions have long had to battle mindless stereotypes, but Swope actually seemed to further them.  With skinny arms and legs and the face of a high school intern, Swope hardly seemed the type destined for NFL stardom at first glance.

And yet game after game, Swope was making plays.  He finished that season with 1207 receiving yards- the most in Texas A&M school history.  He also had 11 touchdowns.  Sneaky fast and six foot tall, Swope was a frequent deep threat, but he was also extremely quick out of his breaks as a slot receiver and knew how to find soft zones, sit in them, and present his quarterback a target.   In other words, he was a total passer’s pet.  Between Swope’s strong 2010 and 2011 seasons, he helped make Ryan Tannehill a top ten draft pick.

During the 2012 season I discovered future and present megastar Johnny Manziel midway through his upset of Alabama.  Once again, the favorite target of choice was Ryan Swope.  I thought that was pretty neat, and thought to myself that Swope was probably going to be a 4th round steal for some team.

There is no shortage of quality options at wide receiver in this draft.  I had Swope on my list to review, but he was pushed to the back of my list because like many I foolishly assumed he was an average athlete.  Then I heard about the rumors that Swope was doing shockingly well in his pre-combine workouts.  I decided to go bump him up the priority list and see if the athleticism would be there on tape.  I had never really looked closely at Swope before, I just knew he was a difference maker on game days.

I was surprised by what I saw.  Swope wasn’t just making catches, he was making yards after the catch too.  With quick feet and faster change of direction skills than you’d think, he can at times remind you of Golden Tate.  He doesn’t just have to run around defenders either.  And at 6’0″, 205 pounds, you had better wrap up when you tackle him. This coupled with his multitude of deep scores, it was plainly evident that his athleticism and elusiveness was far better than I had assumed.  But even I was stunned when he posted a 4.34 40-time and a 37″ vertical.  That is damn impressive for anybody, but even moreso for a six foot receiver at 205 pounds.

But of course, Swope is more than a playmaker.  He’s a great route runner and improvisor- one who flourished with Manziel and Tannehill, both of which are mobile, creative quarterbacks.  I wonder who else has a mobile, creative quarterback in need of a receiver who knows how to get open on improvised plays?

He’s also tough, intense, smart, and fiercely competitive.  And despite measuring slightly small hands, he’s about as trustworthy catching the ball as they come.  Just watch that video above and notice how Swope is constantly trying to soak in the moment, even firing up the crowd before a game.  See how he celebrates every big play.  And if you watch the game compilations, you’ll even see him put a few defenders on their ass if their not looking for him.  Many evaluators glance over that stuff, but Pete won’t.  You can plainly see how much Swope enjoys competing, and winning.

The common refrain is that every white wide receiver is invariably compared to another white wide receiver, usually a better one.  You hear “Wes Welker comparison” and assume it’s lazy.  But just this one time, I think it’s justified.  In fact, I’d compare him to someone else, someone better.  Steve Largent.  Same competitiveness.  Same quickness.  Same intelligence.  Same reliability.  Same impressive production.  Same chip on the shoulder.  Same love of the game.  And like Largent, he might just kick your ass if you don’t watch yourself.  And like Largent, he might be a 4th round pick.  I’d take him much sooner than that, obviously.

I think Ryan Swope is destined to be pretty good, but he’s also the exact kind of receiver Russell Wilson needs.

I tuned into the combine yesterday just in time to catch Cornelius Washington’s vertical jump.  I had no idea who he was.  He was standing there getting ready for his high jump, and I’m just wondering if he might be able to beat Robert Turbin in an arm wrestling contest, because the guy was ripped like an action hero from a comic book.  Within half a second I noticed that Washington stood out athletically, just from his build and muscle tone.  But even thinking to myself that he looked like the best athlete up there, I had no idea he was just about to destroy the combine to the extent that he would.

Washington posted one of the best vertical jumps of all front seven participants:  39″.  He then clocked an official 4.55 forty, which was the best of the entire defensive end group.  Officially listed at outside linebacker, Washington is 6’4″, 265 pounds and has 34″ arms.  He’s clearly more of a defensive end than a linebacker, although he has the movement skills to play either one.  Washington’s 10’8″ broad jump was tied for the best among all defensive ends (Barkevious Mingo, Devin Taylor).  His 10 yard split was 1.60, which was narrowly beaten by several ends but is still considered pretty good.  Washington then left everyone (except Margus Hunt) in the dust with 36 reps on the bench press, a number that was far ahead of the front seven pack.  Washington looked fast during drills.  I personally thought that only Auburn’s Corey Lemonier moved quicker during drills.

Basically, Cornelius Washington just had the combine that everyone thought his teammate (Alec Ogletree) would have.  Actually, it was probably better than even that.

And it didn’t go unnoticed.

…Cornelius Washington, the hybrid linebacker/defensive end from Georgia. He had a solid week at the Senior Bowl and an even better Senior Bowl game yet he came to Indy as a sixth- or seventh-round player. He can rush the passer and he just ran 4.50.

He is moving up draft boards. One defensive coordinator said, “This is the kind of guy I came to Indy to find. Now I’ll go back and study him. We’re all looking for the Bruce Irvin in this draft.”

Despite playing for a major program like Georgia and being a phenomenal athlete, Washington has registered only 10 total sacks over four seasons at Georgia.  He’s probably been moved around to play linebacker some, which hurts his production, but his tackles and tackles for loss numbers aren’t high either.  Georgia is loaded with pass rusher talent, so it’s not unthinkable that Washington could have been buried on that roster to some degree.

As of today, there aren’t any game compilations of Washington on youtube.  The best I could find was this brief highlight, and also a team highlight reel that probably give you 20-30 snaps with #83 on it.  I guess you could go through Jarvis Jones’ and Alec Ogletree’s videos looking for him too.  In a year where even small school prospects are usually getting compilation videos, Washington doesn’t have one.  Maybe because he’s never really produced enough in a game to merit the effort?

Grading Washington’s draft stock is really hard to do.  Not only is he lacking production, but the games he has played in haven’t given evaluators a ton to go off of.  But that said, he sure looked a hell of a lot like Brian Orakpo today.

Washington (2013):  6’4″, 265, 4.55 forty, 1.60 10-yard-split, 39″ vert, 36 reps on bench press, cartoonishly ripped arms

…….Orakpo (2009):  6’3″, 263, 4.63 forty, 1.58 10-yard split, 39.5″ vert, 31 reps on bench press, cartoonishly ripped arms

I’m really looking forward to getting some tape to look at down the road, I think it’s pretty likely we’ll get access to some before the draft.  Based on how he looked in the drills yesterday and based on what little I saw on youtube, I think he has some promise and the physical gifts do seem to translate at least somewhat.  He has very obvious appeal to the Seahawks, and probably the 31 other NFL teams as well.

Though a follower of the draft for over two decades, 2009 was the first year I started doing tape breakdowns and informing myself about prospects.  Not with Mel Kiper analysis or googled scouting reports, but by watching and evaluating the players myself, while taking cues from analysts I respected.  Before 2009… I wouldn’t claim to be any kind of authority on the draft before that.

With that caveat in place, I have no doubt that the 2013 NFL Draft is the deepest draft I have ever seen.  A few days ago, Mike Mayock made similar comments when he said the 2013 draft was the deepest he’s seen in at least ten years.

No area is deeper in this draft than the wide receiver position.  Approximately ten wide receivers have received a first or second round projection, and that list does not include some of my favorites.  As many as six tight ends have been talked about in that same range.   In the first round, we might be witnessing perhaps the best offensive line group ever.   Mayock has gone so far as to say that the 25th pick is going to feel a lot like the 5th overall pick this year.  That surplus of talent will push into the middle rounds as well, because you probably won’t see ten of the first sixty picks being receivers, six tight ends in the first sixty, and so on.

In a draft that is almost unbelievable in it’s reserves, one position stands out as the exception:  Linebacker.  Even at the top, this isn’t a great linebacker class.  I’d take Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Dont’a Hightower and Mychal Kendricks over any linebacker this year.  What’s really striking to me is how few “fast” linebackers there are in this group that are quality prospects.  To be sure, there are some gems out there later on- I’ll cover them in a future post- but they’ll likely be snatched up quickly and it won’t be long until you’re sifting through ashes just hoping to find this year’s version of Korey Toomer or Malcolm Smith.

It’s something that rival head coach Jeff Fisher brought up at the combine during his media session yesterday, although his complaints centered around a lack of inside linebackers and linebackers with size.  I would agree with Fisher, except I am not lamenting a lack of big linebackers, but a lack of truly fast ones that fit Pete Carroll’s mold well enough.

John Schneider had his own presser of course, and he said something that I found interesting.  He talked about his process of upgrading over parts of the roster and specifically name checked Bobby Wagner and Malcolm Smith.

This name drop interested me because it implied that Malcolm Smith is a starter.  Malcolm Smith is fast, he’s smart, and he’s a more of a football player than an athlete- and he’s a good athlete.  But he’s never been a full time starter, in large part to his being 6’0″ and just 226 pounds.  Though a standout at USC, Smith was injured constantly, which shouldn’t be terribly surprising given his size.  The only comparably sized player to be a long term starter in recent years that I know of is Cato June (6’0″, 225 pounds), who had just five starting seasons in seven years before retiring.  Though a very good player, the scarcity of similar success stories and the brevity of his career suggests that he was an exception that proved the rule.

In a league where 240 pounds is considered preferable for 4-3 linebackers and 230 pounds is treated as a cutoff point, it strikes me as a tough sell to walk into next season banking on Malcolm Smith as your starter all season (and postseason) long. This is no slam on Smith, who I think is one of the teams very best backups.  But players of his size typically remain backups.

Maybe Seattle would start him anyway.  Maybe a weak linebacker class could scare them more than a 226 pound player with 3 NFL starts and an extensive injury history in college.  Maybe they bring Leroy Hill back for one final season.  Maybe.  But I doubt it.

I’m open minded, and I won’t tell anyone there is a right and wrong answer on this.  But I would guess that Seattle is hunting for another starter at linebacker this offseason.  A fast one.  If you want a starter caliber player in this draft, you will probably have to grab that player in the first four rounds.  If you want a difference maker, someone like Alec Ogletree, Khaseem Greene or Arthur Brown, and he’s there at #58, you almost have to take him.  I do not think Seattle will go so far as to draft a linebacker with their first pick, but if they did, I’d understand why: they might not get another chance.  Certainly, if a top option remains at #58, I expect they’d rush to the podium.

Fortunately for us, 4-3 weakside linebackers are rarely drafted in the first round.  It’s happened just once in the previous three drafts (Sean Witherspoon in 2010).  Some of these players, such as Alec Ogletree, might be considered as 3-4 inside linebackers and get taken early as a result, as was the case for Dont’a Hightower last year.  Tony Pauline’s big board lists Arthur Brown 40th overall and has Khaseem Greene (funny enough) 58th overall- the same spot as Seattle’s 2nd round pick.

Finally, there is one other factor to consider.  I can’t link a source or anything, but I’ve heard third-hand that John Schneider grades his entire roster with a numbering system and makes draft picks based not on the draft grade, but on the upgrade differential of his starters and that draft grade.  I can’t imagine that Malcolm Smith carries a very high starter grade- I’m not even sure he’s a starter at all.  It’s hard to envision Seattle ignoring that as they work through the very early rounds, especially if a great value presents itself in round two.

If you are a fan of well written articles and an evaluator who just “gets it”, I’d recommend The Rookie Scouting Portfolio by Matt Waldman.  I like him personally because I watch tape on prospects and invariably come to the same conclusions he does.  Like me, he’s one of a few charter members of the Russell Wilson NFL fanclub that staked their claim before last season.  If you read the Studying the Asterisk article that made the rounds last year, then you are already familiar with his work.  I guess this has nothing to do with the topic at hand, but do yourself a favor and bookmark his blog if you haven’t already.  It’s great.

I try to check in with his site every couple of weeks. It’s useful as a double check for my own analysis; to see if there are nuances he picked up that I missed.  It was during my most recent visit that I noticed a link to a peculiar draft website that has apparently gotten a lot of pub in social media circles.  The site is titled “Bill Walsh: How I Evaluate Each Position.”  The site is a clever idea- a compilation of various written analyses by Walsh covering every starting position.  Walsh, one of the greatest and most influential NFL coaches of all time, was an intellectual above all else, and his analysis remains relevant all these years later.

As Danny Kelly is fond of pointing out, Pete Carroll is a bit of a Bill Walsh protege, having been San Francisco’s defensive coordinator in the mid-90s while Walsh served as a consultant.  In Win Forever, Pete Carroll says himself that Bill Walsh was a major influence in how he evaluates and handles his players, specifically at quarterback.  That proved valuable as Carroll mentored one star quarterback after another at USC, only to see most of them flounder when leaving Carroll’s side for the NFL.  Reading Bill Walsh talk about quarterbacks, you’d think he was talking future tense about Russell Wilson, when he’s actually talking past tense about Wilson’s boyhood idol, Joe Montana.

I’ve often thought that Carroll was the 21st century equivalent of Walsh:  brilliant, unique, creative, and easy to learn from.  His boyish exuberance stems not from some mystical fountain of youth, but a mind that never tires of new ideas and new challenges.  Walsh was stern if not prickly, but his passion for the game burned just the same.  Both have proven masters at building dynastic rosters on the fly from spare parts and savvy drafting.  If you know where to look, you can see Walsh’s fingerprints in many of the things that Pete has done.

I can’t say for sure if Pete and Bill would see eye to eye on defensive tackles, although reading Walsh’s breakdown of the position, it sounded exactly like the kind of player the Seahawks need:

Ideal size: 6-2, 290

Must have the girth, strength, ballast to hold off the guard, or to step into a tackles’ block without being knocked off the line of scrimmage.

Quick, strong hands to grab and pull are critical. This is common with the great tackles. The hands, the arms, the upper body strength and then the quick feet to take advantage of a moving man, just getting him off balance.

You are looking for somebody who can move down the line of scrimmage and make a tackle, pursuing a ball-carrier. That would be lateral quickness in a short area, being able to get underway and move over and through people. If you get knocked off the line, or get knocked sideways or knocked off balance, you cannot play this position. You must be able to work your way through people, so that kind of strength is a must.

The best defensive tackles move the offensive guard back into the quarterback. (emphasis mine) They won’t have nearly as many sacks as others, but if they can move the guard back into the quarterback, then the quarterback has to avoid his own lineman as if he were a pass rusher before he throws the ball. So this is a key ability.

On a few occasions already, Rob has highlighted pass rush at defensive tackle as Seattle’s biggest need.  Derek Stephens voiced similar sentiments at his blog during his roster analysis.  But here is where I interject: with respect to Seattle’s needs, guys that can provide production from the interior are extremely rare and ridiculously valuable.  The Seahawks registered 36 sacks last season, tied with Buffalo for 18th in the NFL.  They were 16 sacks behind the league leaders Denver and St. Louis.  If the ultimate goal is to reach the 50 sack plateau, Seattle has a long way to go, and even Geno Atkins wouldn’t add 16 sacks on his own.  The Seahawks actually produced 9 total sacks from the defensive tackle position last season anyway- so it’s not like the group was a pile of crap by any means.

Of course, there is so much more to pressure than sacks, and this might be more true at defensive tackle than anywhere else.  Which is good, because I really doubt we are finding an interior 10+ sack a year monster in this draft class.  If a scheme is built to have the 3-tech play the role of the cleanup hitter, it wont work unless you have a hall of famer at that spot.

But Walsh ends his analysis with something hopeful.  Most people judge a 3-tech by how often he’s getting into the backfield: how many sacks and tackles for loss he accumulates.  Walsh says the great defensive tackles aren’t racking up stats, but rather they are pushing the guard into the quarterback and forcing him to move.  John Schneider, when talking about Bruce Irvin in his combine interview today, also used that term.  He specifically mentioned that Irvin was forcing the quarterback to move.  (On a related note, he singled out Jason Jones as a free agent they want to “keep an eye on” in free agency).

I really doubt we’ll find the next Geno Atkins this year, but we might find a component pass rusher: a player that can be the table setter.  Finding the next Derek Wolfe might prove to be enough.  Not enough to reach 52 sacks of course, but a positive first step in that direction.

Here are how some of the best defensive tackle options stack up as pocket pushers:

Star Lotulelei:

Though inconsistent and under-developed, I’d wager that Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn salivate when thinking about what they could do with Lotulelei’s raw ability.  I saw one play against USC’s stellar run blocking line where he drove back a double team straight backward and pancaked both blockers- and this was on a rushing attempt.  I have literally never seen that before.

Lotulelei is quick off the snap and possesses near Suh levels of pure strength.  He tends to keep his arms locked on the target and seems almost completely foreign to the basics of arm technique: almost no attempts to body control, yanking to defeat balance, rips or swims.  He seems perfectly content to treat most guards like lineman sleds.  And often, it works.

At Utah, Lotulelei was not a consistent pocket collapsing force.  He could be in the pros.  He has by far the most untapped potential at the position in the 2013 draft.  He will likely be a top five overall selection, and barring a buddy-buddy trade with Jacksonville at #2, I really doubt we’d have a shot at him.  And yes, that trade would cost way more than just Matt Flynn.

Sharrif Floyd:

Floyd is a lean 303 pounds and probably the best pure athlete in this DT class.  (I consider Ansah to be a 5-tech with interior versatility).  Floyd’s first step and arm use are median level at best compared to his peers, but he still creates pressure by never giving up.  He never stands still or concedes- his constant thrashing and fighting reminds me of watching a rodeo bull.

Floyd tracks the ball very well and I’d easily say that he’s better against the run than he is at disrupting the pass.  After watching several of his games, I wasn’t shocked at all to learn that he’s tallied just 4.5 sacks over 3 seasons.  Floyd just isn’t a very good pass rusher, despite being a gifted and versatile athlete.  Reminds me of Kentwan Balmer when he came out of North Carolina in that regard, though I think Floyd will have a better career.

Florida mixed 3-4 and 4-3 looks.  I saw Floyd play every position possible on both of those fronts, which is pretty impressive.  He has long, strong arms and can disengage from run blocks well enough that I think he can make a good NFL career as a run stopper, which is why I think he needs to play either a 5-tech or a 3-4 defensive end position in the NFL.  Playing in such a role gives him more space to use his athleticism, and doesn’t require him to bag tons of sacks to be considered good.  I think his hype level is a little out of control, but then again 3-4 defensive ends have been known to go early and there aren’t a ton of them at the top this year.  The former GM who first highlighted Floyd as a top 10 pick was Scott Pioli, who drafted a 3-4 defensive end himself in the top three picks just 4 years ago.

Sheldon Richardson:

Richardson is a well balanced defensive tackle who’s most prominent feature is his speed and pursuit capability.  Mike Mayock might have said it best when he observed that Richardson moves like a linebacker at the defensive tackle position.  Richardson is a red-ass that keeps after the play even when it’s far away from him, and can be seen chasing down tackles from 20 or more yards away several times a game.  He collapses the pocket by far the most often out of the known 2013 defensive tackle options, mostly because guards cede so much ground out of respect for his speed and explosiveness.

I had to retire from Division II because of people who played the game like Richardson does.  I couldn’t protect my body with my short arms and defensive tackles would rip me forward to execute the swim move and I just couldn’t stop it.  Ceding ground with a backpedal helped, because it’s harder to swim someone when they are moving away from you.  Of course, doing so came at a cost as I was essentially walking the defensive player into the pocket.  This is why a pocket can only last so long, as guards and tackles are often ceding ground strategically while protecting themselves from their assignments next sudden attack.

This is what Richardson does to guards.  He has a strong upper body with violent arms, and guards have to respect his quick step and ability to crash a gap with his speed.  I tallied a very high number of plays where Richardson got 3 yards deep in the pocket in little time despite doing very little to earn it because the guard was appeasing him with real estate.

Richardson only had 4 sacks last season, and just 2 sacks the season before, but those stats don’t tell the story of how he impacts the pocket.  He had a ton of near sacks and quarterback hits, too.

I think Richardson will probably go in the top 14 picks- I just can’t see him getting past Carolina barring a disaster.  Richardson stands so far ahead of his peers at collapsing the pocket that I’d say he’s worth trading up for, even though it will mean losing picks in a draft where a 2nd rounder feels an awful lot like a 1st.

Kawann Short:

Short is maybe the draft’s “craftiest” defensive tackle- an expert at exploiting mistakes and sneaking through the smallest of gaps to gain backfield penetration.  He’s particularly effective on running plays against a zone blocking scheme.  Zone blocking scheme tends to move it’s blockers one direction in unison like a wave.  Short seems to have figured out a way to jump those gaps at the start of those runs, as I saw him break into the backfield far more against zone runs than anything else.

Short has by far the best college production among this group (excluding Brandon Williams from Division II), posting six or more sacks each of the last three seasons, with 49.5 total tackles for loss during that span.  And until I read that Bill Walsh analysis, Short was my favorite defensive tackle in this draft.

The problem with Short is that despite his polish and skill, he’s more of a mistake exploiter than a pocket collapser.  He’ll scatter a few quality plays from time to time, but I would estimate that he pushes the pocket with about half the frequency that Sheldon Richardson does.

I see Short as an excellent option for a 4-3 team that likes to blitz.  Spread the blocking lanes out with blitzers and he’ll exploit that extra space.  Problem is, Carroll’s late season actions indicate that he wants to reduce his blitz count going forward and rely on a four man base rush instead.  Since Pete has come here, he’s had to blitz to get sack production and guys like Irvin and Clemons have typically struggled without that boost.  Drafting Short will give us a weapon, but it might also increase our dependency on the blitz to get the most out of him.

Or to put it another way, I see Short as a guy that is a clean up hitter more than a table setter.  He doesn’t make the players around him better per se, but if you help him out a little, he’ll get you some production.

Sylvester Williams:

Williams is a complete defensive tackle who at times can be quite dominant.  He’s bigger than most 3-techs at 313 pounds, and holds up very well against the run with a strong anchor and good rush awareness.  He could easily transition to the 1-tech if needed, or Red Bryants “big 5-tech” role for that matter.  That versatility holds a lot of appeal for John Schneider who prizes versatile players, so it should hardly be a shock that a Seahawks scout was seen talking to Williams at the Senior Bowl.  If Seattle allows Branch to leave in free agency it could potentially telegraph an intention to select Williams, as there aren’t a ton of versatile defensive tackles in this draft that are quality options.

Williams’ best asset is his fast first step, which is by far his best tool for achieving penetration and push.  Brandon Mebane once had 5 sacks playing as a run stuffing 1-tech in 2008.  He did it because a 310+ pound man that explodes into a gap before you’ve even fully left your stance is something that’s really hard to stop.  Mebane’s 2008 season was so impressive that Seattle moved Mebane to the 3-tech hoping to optimize his talent during the following two seasons.  It didn’t work out, and drafting a similar player like Williams carries the risk of repeating history.

Which isn’t to say that having an excellent first step is a bad thing, and fortunately Williams also possesses a strong upper body and active hands.  Yet strangely, for a player with size, power, fast hands and fast feet, Williams does not push the pocket as often as I would have expected.  With Williams you know whether he will be successful or not within the first second.  If he doesn’t succeed exploding into a gap and a chance for a swim move doesn’t present itself, he’s often content with a stonewall.  It may be partially due to his short arms- which are just 32 ⅝” long.  When I watch Williams I see a lot of effort with his hands but not a corresponding amount of results.

Williams is a good, well rounded player, and displays I think the best awareness of any defensive tackle in the draft- rarely will you see a defender that can sniff out and anticipate a screen faster than Williams can.  I see him as being a long term quality starter in the Alan Branch mold, but not a difference maker in the pass rush and not a consistent pocket collapser.

Brandon Williams:

Brandon Williams is the most unique defensive tackle in the draft.  Looking like a “chiseled” 340 pounds, Williams is a better athlete than most players his size.  Based on what I saw of him during the Senior Bowl and practices, he has a fast first step and at time shows the best pure power in the draft outside of Lotulelei.

What surprised me the most was how good his arms were- he is surprisingly one of the best defensive tackles in the draft at shedding blocks with his sudden arm moves and substantial upper body strength.  What surprised me even more was how bad he was against the run despite weighing 340 pounds.  He can get bulldozed by double teams and pushed back even by single blocks, often because of high pad level and an inability to easily locate the ball while being drive blocked.

You would think at 340 pounds Williams would be a pure nose tackle, but his strengths and weaknesses align ironically with the 3-tech role instead.  Williams played mostly 3-tech for Missouri Southern, a Division II school, and currently holds his school’s all time sack record with 29 sacks over 3 seasons.  Williams was up and down at the Senior Bowl, though he turned heads with a strong final day of practice.  People often say that Senior Bowl practice matters more to evaluators than the game itself, and that strong practice has helped remove some of the level of competition fears surrounding him.  It’s been enough for some to suggest he could be a potential top forty pick, and it’s considered unlikely that he’ll get out of the 3rd round.

Williams is a strange prospect, and Carroll does like “unique” talents.  Yet as the slowest member of this defensive tackle group I’m not sure how Carroll would react to that; since he worships speed.  Bill Walsh was pretty big on speed too, and in fact it was a crushing defeat to Walsh’s team during Pete’s early coaching days that served as the formative moment of that philosophy.  At least, that’s how Pat Kirwan remembers it.

I’m not sure if Williams fits, but he can push the pocket better than most, and is a better pure pass rusher with his technique than you would think.

Jordan Hill:

Hill isn’t very big nor does he anchor well, but he is probably good enough against drive blocks to be a non-specialist defensive tackle.  He partially makes up for this by being consistently very fast off the snap, and keeps a good pad level.

Hill’s uses his arms a lot like a 3-4 defensive end would, excelling at disengaging via extension, not unlike Greg Scruggs but with shorter, weaker arms.  He has excellent backfield vision and tracks the ball well.  If I had to highlight Hill for being the best at anything out of this group, I think he might have the best short area quickness.  He can cover two yards side to side very fast, and despite being weak to interior drive blocks he’s actually an asset against slower developing stretch runs because he can disengage and cover short areas of grass very quickly.  Not only is he very quick, but he’s exceptionally instinctive and knows where to move to keep a runner in front of him while keeping his shoulders square.

Unfortunately, Hill can’t seem to use his shed ability to actually swim past defenders, which I theorize is from a lack of functional upper body strength.  If he had it, I think he’d be using it.  He also lacks lower body strength and is impotent as a bull rusher.

Hill is a bit like Kawann-Short-lite as a 3-tech.  He can sometimes slip through exploitable mistakes but he doesn’t force guards back.  He could be a serviceable 3-tech, but not a star.  I like him more as a 3-4 defensive end, where he can use his quickness around the edge more and will get more mileage out of his talent for two-gapping and reading the football.  Then again, Hill stands just 6’1″ and doesn’t appear to have the longest arms, so he’d be a bit of a gamble in such a role.  Those factors might explain why he’s expected to be drafted in the mid to late rounds despite having some talent.

So who’s the best?

I would say that the only great pocket collapsing defensive tackle in this draft is Sheldon Richardson, and I’d say he’s far ahead of second place.  I think Star Lotulelei comes next, followed by Brandon Williams, Sylvester Williams, Kawann Short, Sharrif Floyd and Jordan Hill.  Every one of these players has something he’s special at, but Richardson is the guy who will disrupt the passing game the most.  His speed is a huge bonus for our speed obsessed front seven as well.

Walsh’s criteria is illuminating when it comes to sorting the great players from the good ones.  I could envision scenarios where all of these options could become worthwhile component pass rushers, with Richardson being the clear best choice to be an impact player for Pete Carroll’s needs.  I think Short grades out better overall than his ability to push the pocket indicates, and could be a great pick if Seattle is willing to design a more aggressive defense that can create enough confusion for Short to exploit mistakes and hesitation.

I’m working on a piece covering the defensive tackle class, which I should have posted very late tonight.  In the meantime, PatrickH mentioned this article in the comments yesterday which links the Seahawks to Cumberland University tight end B.J. Stewart:

Stewart came to CU as a wrestler, reaching the No. 1 ranking in the nation in the heavyweight division for two weeks during the 2009-10 academic year. He posted a 40-24 overall mark in two years and finished his sophomore season ranked 10th nationally…

“NFL scouts love former wrestlers. If he had played four years at even a Division II school, he might be up there on some mock draft lists right now…”

Three scouts called me from Montgomery after watching him practice there. The Seahawks have shown the most interest and have been on him the longest, but I’ve recently sent film to the Falcons and the Lions…

After starting two years at defensive end, Stewart led the 2012 Bulldogs with 21 receptions for 396 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 18.9 yards per catch.

There are some videos of Stewart on youtube.  I remember watching game film in high school that was filmed better, but if you have a lot of patience it’s out there.  Stewart is even skinnier looking than this 6’5″ 253 listing indicates- I’m going to assume that Seattle probably views him as a Joker/H-back type.  Could be a player to watch in the very late rounds or undrafted free agency.

In a year where there are seemingly no conspicuous talent dropoff points, perhaps nothing defines the parity level of the 2013 draft more than it’s remarkably strong class of small school prospects.  Typically, these kind of players are late round picks or go undrafted.  John Schneider has dabbled with small schools from time to time- spending a late pick on Mark Legree and signing Josh Portis in free agency.  Occasionally you’ll see a Brian Quick or Jared Veldheer grace the top 3 rounds, but it’s hardly a regular occurrence.

Given the incredibly unsettled nature of the first four or five rounds this year, it’s a prime opportunity for small school players to break into the conversation.  Already, we’re hearing a lot of insider talk that this is exactly the case.  First, it was scouts raving about Louisiana Tech’s Quinton Patton at around the time the Senior Bowl happened.  Patton went from a likely late pick to a likely 2nd rounder.  You have Robert Alford and Jordan Mills who I highlighted yesterday.  Many scouts believe there is “no doubt” that Alford will be a 2nd round pick, as he’s expected to put on a show at the NFL Combine.  There is talk that Mills could go in the 3rd round.

And then you have Eric Fisher out of Central Michigan- a player who is already considered a 1st round lock and could go top ten.  Florida International’s Jonathan Cyprien is ranked as the second best strong safety by NFLDraftscout.com and has a real chance to be a top 50 pick.  Cyprien’s teammate, defensive end Tourek Williams, has received glowing mention from some circles as well (you can even find two full game compilations of him on youtube).  A 340 pound defensive tackle out of Missouri Southern named Brandon Williams turned some heads when he flashed dominance on the final day of Senior Bowl practices, and some (sources from Rotoworld.com) have now said that his stock has risen as high as the early 2nd round.

One of the fastest rising tight ends is Vance McDonald out of Rice.  He’s drawing comparisons to the Gronk, whether that’s fair or not.  It is now widely believed that he will be off the board in the top sixty picks, barring a disaster at the combine.  Perhaps you’ve heard of Zac Dysert?  He’s out of Miami of Ohio.  Western Kentucky’s Quanterus Smith is among the better LEO options in the middle rounds.  And then there’s Marshall’s Aaron Dobson, who’s slowly been working his way up the pecking order of wide receivers and may find himself going in the first two rounds.

But by far my favorite of these players are two that have been talked about very little in the media, and who have completely unpredictable draft stock.  And as luck would have it, these players play positions of major need for Seattle:  pass rusher and wide receiver.

You’ve probably read the name “Tony Pauline” quite a few times on this blog.  The Sports Illustrated writer runs draftinsider.net and has been a favorite of both Rob and I for a few years now.  He gets information straight from anonymous scouts and executives, which has proven remarkably accurate.  Last year for example, most people thought that Courtney Upshaw and Zach Brown were likely mid to late 1st round picks, until Pauline revealed a consensus big board from several NFL GMs that listed neither on the top 32, and the data seemed to indicate that Seattle would have a real shot at Brown even at the 43rd overall pick.  Upshaw turned into an early 2nd round pick by the Ravens, and Brown lasted until the Titans at the 52nd overall selection.

As the Senior Bowl was wrapping up, Tony Pauline led off one of his updates speaking of a “super sleeper” at wide receiver.

The name making the rounds in the scouting community as one of the biggest sleepers at the receiver position is Courtney Gardner of Sierra College.  The 6-foot, 3-inch/220lb pass catcher was expected to play for Oklahoma in 2013 but opted for the NFL draft after academic “difficulties”.  We hear scouts have been raving about the physical skills Gardner brings to the field.  Besides his large frame the big pass catcher also has the speed (10.7 sec in the 100 meters) to match.  Even college coaches in the area are awed by his ability on the field but focusing at the task at hand seems to be an issue.

Gardner’s compilation video:

While it’s clear that Gardner still has a lot to learn, you can see where the scouting community’s enthusiasm is coming from.  Gardner has the movement talent of someone like Golden Tate or Percy Harvin, but in a 6’3″, 220 pound body.  He claims to have run a 4.38 forty (unofficially of course), and the speed on tape certainly seems to back that claim up.  However, he comes from pretty much the lowest level of competition possible, a junior college, and struggled with academics for a long time, which perhaps hints at a lack of work ethic (especially since it was a two year degree type college).  Curiously, Gardner was not given an invitation to the combine.  That may indicate that Gardner is destined to go undrafted, even if his tools are the stuff of legend.

Finally, I’ll end with the guy in the picture.  Armonty Bryant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhStcILkeL4

I found it interesting that when asked if he’d been in contact with any NFL teams, he mentioned several, but there was one that leapt to his mind instantly.  You guessed it- the Seahawks.

Bryant made headlines for his dominating display in that Texas vs. Nation game by the way, which featured prominent players from major Division I schools.

Bryant has 35.5 inch arms, good size, undeniable athleticism, excellent pass rush technique, and a knack for getting to the quarterback.  In a recent interview Bryant mentioned that “people keep telling him” that he reminds them of Demarcus Ware.

Yet despite giving a pretty good camera interview and seeming like a good kid, he was busted last season for dealing drugs- during practice.  That’s about as flagrant of a criminal red flag as it gets, and that coupled with his coming from division II could double whammy his draft stock.  Regardless, Bryant remains an extremely intriguing prospect.  Like Russell Wilson last year, he deserves a post all to himself (which I never got around to writing last year, d’oh!).  I’ll probably wait until after the combine for that one.  In the meantime, this is a player to keep an eye on in Indy this weekend.  I included Bryant’s highlight reel below.

Take it for what it’s worth- the Seahawks have been connected to two little known small school prospects in the past few days.  Seattle showed interest in many players they did not draft last year, and often teams show interest in the players they don’t want, while never talking about the ones they do.  They did interview Russell Wilson at the Senior Bowl last year, and there were reports that they showed interest in players like Korey Toomer and Jeremy Lane last year, which was the only reason I even knew enough to mention them before that draft.

One of these players of interest is a 5’10” corner from Southeastern Louisiana by the name of Robert Alford.  You can watch his tape above.  That a player like this even has a 9 minute compilation video on youtube is pretty amazing.  I really have to commend youtube users for working overtime this year.  It is greatly appreciated.

Here is the article, and the quote that links Alford to Seattle:

“There’s no question he’s going to blow the Combine out of the water,” Golding said. “He’s a Combine guy. As far as running and agility and drills, he’ll be one of the top corners if not the top corner.”

Golding’s concern was how Alford would perform at the Senior Bowl with a totally new defense and new responsibilities. The reports were positive. Many NFL scouts are telling the coach that there’s “no doubt” Alford will be a second-round pick. Seattle, Cincinnati and Baltimore have particularly shown interest.

Alford plays far off the football, struggles with blocks and at times lacks physicality.  He wasn’t challenged very much though, and most of his tackles were on screens or passes that targeted other defensive players.  I hate the term “raw”, because it’s both vague and overused, but I think it’s safe to say that Alford isn’t yet impressive.  Or as Pete Carroll would probably think, Alford’s best football is still ahead of him.

Judging athleticism from a video isn’t a perfect science.  “Sneaky fast” isn’t just a cliche, field speed can be notoriously tough to quantify.  Consider Leon Washington, who doesn’t explode so much as glide, and yet he is one of the most prolific return men in NFL history.  His speed is real, even if he looks like he’s running slower than he’s capable of.  Alford has a similar gliding style of acceleration and speed, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s an effective kick returner himself, and his opponents know it.

I’m not excited about Alford, but I am interested to see what he does at the combine.  I don’t think Seattle would take a corner in the top two rounds, but it never hurts to do you homework.

The other player connected to Seattle was right tackle Jordan Mills from Louisiana Tech.  This information was second hand and came from the twitter page of Scott Bischoff.

Hearing that Seattle likes Louisiana Tech RT Jordan Mills a lot, earlier than you would think. He fits their running style perfectly.

— Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) February 18, 2013

Hard to know what “earlier than you would think” means exactly.  Mill’s stock ranges from 3rd round to 5th round.  It’s not much, but below is a short video that shows 3 plays by Jordan Mills.

Obviously, I can’t scout from so little, but physically he reminds me of James Carpenter- very similar size and more of a mauler than an athlete.  Shows pretty good technique on the cut block and uses his arms well.  Feet seem slow, but then again he’s up against Damontre Moore in this clip.  He plays for the same team as Quinton Patton, so it could be worth checking out his pass protection in those videos.

Of course, it’s lying season, so it’s hard to tell if this interest is real at all.  I tend to lean towards “legit” ever so slightly, if only because we’re talking about a classic “coach him up” raw athlete at corner who fits Pete well, and a bulldozer at right tackle seems to fit Tom Cable’s modus operandi.  Where they actually end up drafted, who knows?

If nothing else, we can probably now deduce that corner and tackle are areas the Seahawks are looking at.  Either they really are interested in these players, or they are creating a smoke screen to distract from the players at those positions that they really like.  If they wanted to distract us with false interest, they wouldn’t use a corner to distract from a safety or a linebacker.  The tactic goes beyond simple deception- it’s main purpose is to help encourage players they are less interested in get selected ahead of players they are more interested in for a given position.

Last year John Schneider talked up Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and even Austin Davis and Chandler Harnish, but rarely if ever talked about Russell Wilson.  I even said at the time that I thought that Schneider was probably talking up those players to help them get drafted before Wilson or Cousins.

It’s possible we could be seeing the same thing here- with Pete and John trying to muddy an already murky draft pool.

Or, we could be looking at two future Seahawks.  I guess we’ll find out.

This April, roughly 255 amateur players will be drafted into the NFL.  Many hundreds more will be signed to post-draft contracts.  The amount of time required to sort, study, analyze, and choose among these options is staggering.  The process is urgent, challenging, sophisticated, and above all else:  guarded.  Like the sports world equivalent of the Manhattan Project.

And yet, for a process with enough information to fill a section at a library, draftniks and draftertainers find a way to boil it down to the most binary of terms, every year, without fail.  That distillation?  The draft is either “elite” or it isn’t.  And by elite, I mean elite in the top ten picks, which comprise just 4% of all the selections that will be made on draft weekend.  While GMs know perfectly well the value of a good 2nd round pick, draftertainers tend to display a laser focus on those high picks, as if to seriously suggest that those choices define the draft.

Pouring over this draft has been like pouring over a bag of dimes trying to figure out which ones are the shiniest.  But here’s the thing- it’s a really big bag of dimes.  While it’s true that relatively little separates the 3rd pick from the 33rd pick, there’s also little that separates the 50th pick from the 100th pick.  I haven’t been doing this forever, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a draft that was stronger top to bottom than this one.

It reminds me a little of 2009- some unremarkable yet over-hyped players dominated the top ten, and a lot of the talk before that draft was how it wasn’t a great draft.  Indeed, the first dozen picks of that draft were about as bust-laden as they come.  But for as bad as those early picks were, that draft recovered in a hurry.  After an atrocious top twelve, the next 50 picks took off, among them Clay Matthews, LeSean McCoy, Jairus Byrd, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing, Josh Freeman, Malcolm Jenkins, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, Percy Harvin, Alex Mack, Max Unger, Michael Oher, Vontae Davis, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, James Laurinaitis, Andy Levitre, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, and Sean Smith.  For good measure that draft also produced Mike Wallace in round three and Henry Melton in round four, and someone named Arian Foster went undrafted, thanks in part to Jim Mora.  And if you don’t know that story, take it from me, ignorance is bliss.

If there was ever a draft that made the obsession with top 10 picks look silly, it was that one.

I see history repeating itself in 2013.  Star Lotulelei will be like this year’s Aaron Curry, a guy who’s raw physical ability will entice enough to trump common sense and assure himself a selection in the top five picks.  Sharrif Floyd will be this year’s Tyson Jackson, who went from a 2nd round pick at the start of the year to a top 3 pick in late April.  It’s even possible they could be selected by the same team.  Matt Barkley is obviously this year’s Matt Stafford.  Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib will battle for the honor of being this year’s Mark Sanchez.  EJ Manuel could very well be this year’s Pat White, and Geno Smith could end up having a similar up and down career to Josh Freeman. I never said this draft would be without it’s ugly parts.

But some early headscratchery aside, this draft will get awesome in a hurry.  You are going to see 1st round names going in the 2nd round, 2nd round names going in the 3rd round, and some 3rd round names going in the 5th round.  This draft is as unpredictable as anyone has seen in recent memory.  And the reason it’s unpredictable is because there might be 60 players who get talked about as top 32 round picks, and maybe 150 players who get talked about as top 60 picks.

The receiver and tight end class are incredibly deep.  As many as six tight ends could carry top 60 grades, and the list of top 100 receivers grows by the day.  Stedman Bailey and Markus Wheaton are great prospects.  They could go 25th overall, or they could go 125th overall.  There is just a sea of viable receivers this year.

Some of the best pass rushers are among the least heralded:  Jordan Hill, John Simon, Quanterus Smith, Armonty Bryant, Brandon Jenkins, Tank Carradine, David Bass, Corey Lemonier, Alex Okafor.  The first round will be dominated by defensive lineman, but the options remain deep long after despite that.

In a draft like this, a late first could look like Kawaan Short, a late second could look like Khaseem Greene, a late 3rd could look like Markus Wheaton, a late 4th could look like Jordan Reed.  Even in the 5th and 6th rounds, you’ll probably continue to hear familiar names get called.

And that is pretty damn exciting.  The homerun potential in this draft from start to finish is like Barry Bonds’ home run potential hitting off a tee in a little league game.

Who needs to tank a season for Julius Peppers at #2 when you can get Clay Matthews at #26?  Sure, it’s not that simple.  But elite talent rarely is.

Most people consider the first two rounds to be their “starter” rounds.  Let them think that.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks will do their thing from rounds 3-7, and celebrate a job well done.

Oh and hey, I’m back.  I hope you all are as jazzed as I am for this draft.