Author: Rob Staton (Page 32 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Curtis Allen’s week two watch-notes (vs New England)

September 15, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

The Seahawks started off their new era with a win against Denver that was both comforting (a return to a smothering, good-tackling defense) and concerning (the all-too-familiar offensive line issues that threaten to keep them from progressing).

What will be interesting to see with this rookie coaching staff is: how do they react to last week’s game in their planning for the Patriots this week? Do they rely more on establishing their running game in the early going? Can they employ some passing concepts that keep the Patriot pass rush at bay, helping their unstable offensive line?

Or do they carry forward with a plan that trusts that another week of practicing together (particularly the three interior players) will yield at least middling results?

We will see.

The Patriots are an interesting challenge. Coming off a four-win season which led to a parting of ways with legend Bill Belichick, they might seem like a team rebuilding from scratch. The truth is, they – like the Seahawks – have some great pieces to work with as they forge a new path.

Last year, they had one of the league’s top defenses and a fantastic rushing game on offense.

Usually, that adds up to a pretty solid team. So how did they end up picking third overall? Their passing game was dreadful and they were one of the worst teams in the NFL in turnover ratio at -11.

They moved quickly to remedy that, drafting Drake Maye with their top pick and signing Jacoby Brissett – the NFL’s active leader in lowest career interception percentage – and adding Ja’Lynn Polk at Wide Receiver and some very nice building blocks on the offensive line in the form of Caeden Wallace and Layden Robinson in the draft.

The plan has already proven fruitful, as they beat the Bengals last week on the strength of two turnovers, 170 yards rushing, Brissett making no major mistakes and the defense limiting the powerful Bengals offense to just 224 yards.

They will want to replicate that exact model this week against the Seahawks.

What keys do the Seahawks need to be focused on in order to win?

Win the Little Things

When you go on the road, in a different time zone, to play a team you do not come across very often (they last played New England in Week 2 of 2020 – the thriller where they stuffed Cam Newton at the goal line to win it) and are still finding your footing with a new coach, the best thing you can do to help yourself win is to play a clean game.

More so when you are playing the Patriots, a team with a profile we mentioned above. They very likely will not help you beat them, so you are going to have to do it yourself.

The Bengals had sequences just before and after the half with three key errors that ended up being the difference in the game.

The first: Joe Burrow lofts a perfect corner pass to Mike Gesicki and he gets his hands on it but the new Replay Assistant properly challenged it and it showed he could not complete the catch:

On the very next play, Burrow hits Tanner Hudson on a beautiful play call and as he is gliding toward the end zone, he allows the ball to get away from his body for a split second and Kyle Duggar takes advantage with a strip at the one-yard line:

The Patriots recovered, marched down the field and kicked a field goal. But just as important, they burned the last 5 minutes of the half off the clock and did not allow Burrow another shot to get on the scoreboard.

Coming out of the half, the Bengals forced the Patriots to punt. Returner Charlie Jones fumbles and the Patriots recover, flipping the field. The offense burns some more clock before settling for a field goal.

Two Bengal turnovers in back-to-back possessions deprive them of a sure touchdown, and lead to six Patriot points.

The Patriots won the game by six points.

It’s nice that an underdog story like the Patriots’ was a Week One headline but an inch more attention to detail by Cincinnati and we are talking about an unimpressive but very acceptable Bengals win and talk of the Patriots not being dynamic enough on offense dominates the week’s discourse.

One of the reasons the Bengal offense was not very productive? They only had eight possessions (for reference, the Seahawks had 14 last week vs Denver). With so few bites at the apple, it raises the margin for error to uncomfortable levels.

Penalties. Completing crucial catches. Avoiding turnovers.

The Seahawks have several resources for crucial catches but we all know one who stands above the rest. I think that category is in sure hands (pun intended).

What about penalties and turnovers? That leads us to our next point.

Win the Battle of Poor Offensive Lines

As frustrated as we are with the Seahawks’ offensive line performance – particularly in pass protection – in Week One, New England’s was worse.

Both of these teams are banged up and still finding their footing. Which offensive line plays better will likely determine the winner of this game.

Each team tackled their problem in different ways and had success: The Seahawks balanced out their play calling in the second half and employed motion and quicker passing. The Patriots? They ran several two tight end sets, bullying a weak Cincinnati defensive line into submission with pure strength.

On offense, the Seahawks will need some stabilization. The Patriots defensive line – even without star tackle Christian Barmore – looked fantastic, as second-year player Keion White had a monster day with 2.5 sacks, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble.

The Patriots unlocked the key to success on defense, getting pass rush with just four players at several key points in the game. True, they did not spend the whole day in the Bengal backfield but they struck when it mattered most and allowed the excellent backfield lots of help, with a flood coverage of seven players to deploy.

Brass tacks: The offensive line looks to have another challenging day against the Patriots. Procedural penalties, holding penalties and pressures on Geno Smith that can lead to turnovers must be kept to a minimum.

This will be a play calling challenge of very interesting proportions for Ryan Grubb. If the pass rushers do not cause problems, the backfield (one of the NFL’s best) likely will.

There are a couple of ways they can attack this superb defense.

Firstly, script up some plays to get the ball to the running backs in the passing game. The Patriots love to play man defense and defenders following receivers can open up some pockets of opportunity the Seahawks can attack. All of Seattle’s running backs are versed in catching passes and gaining yards and are ready to be deployed.

Have a look at about 1:54 in this video. The Bengals take advantage of the Patriots’ aggressiveness and set up a nice little dump off to Zach Moss for 12 yards. Notice the Patriots have blitzed to the other side and the Bengals have a ‘hat on a hat’ downfield in blocking.

That is the one and only time the Bengals attacked them in this manner. Last year, the Patriots conceded 6.8 yards per catch and three touchdowns to running backs in the passing game.

The Seahawks can use this as a pressure release valve when they need a few yards in some key spots.

Secondly, if the Patriots are intent on flooding the secondary with bodies, the Seahawks can take advantage by using the inherent awkwardness of too many defenders in too little space.

Have a look at this play and try to focus on the route concept and not the result of Hudson being stripped:

Hudson is in motion pre-snap and settles behind teammate Andre Iosivas in a bunch formation. The Bengals have Gesicki take his man and run straight at another defender, opening up a pocket for Hudson to get into. Bunching pre-snap shields him from his cover man (Kyle Duggar) and he is wide open and has a direct route to the end zone.

I have no trouble believing the Seahawks can scheme up similar plays, sacrificing route runners to open up opportunities. In fact, in training camp scrimmages, the Seahawks loved to line up D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this way on the right side of the formation, with Metcalf drawing focus with his size and speed and Smith-Njigba taking advantage of the open space.

This game has been viewed as a potential slugfest and with good cause. But the Seahawks do not have to concede that their passing game is going to be limited.

With some decent runs and a few of these clever pass concepts proving successful, they can make the defense more pliable and open up the field a little more and allow Geno Smith to do what he does so well – throw deep with accuracy.

Make Jacoby Brissett Beat You

Rhamondre Stevenson had a fine game Sunday, rushing for 120 yards on 25 attempts. He let the Patriots play a balanced game that ate the clock up, covered for a poor pass-protecting offensive line and did not make Brissett play hero-ball.

However, it should be noted that Cincinnati had one of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses last year and did little to substantially improve the situation in the offseason. They did draft two defensive tackles in April but neither played in Week One.

Stevenson had a field day, feasting off of poor tackling and bad angles taken by defenders. He had an impressive 3.0 yards after contact, easily the best day in the NFL for running backs with more than 20 carries.

How can they keep him in check? By making sure they are sound in the very middle of their defense.

Have a look at his run chart from Week One:

That is an awful lot of running behind your center and guards.

The Seahawks can combat this by employing Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy in their interior roles. Also, it appears to make sense to give Jonathan Hankins more than the 17 snaps he had last week. Particularly when the Patriots try their two tight end run packages. The snaps will likely come from K’Von Wallace and/or Dre’Mont Jones.

That does not automatically mean the Seahawks will keep him bottled up. But if they continue their sound tackling and ‘everyone swarm to the ball carrier’ energy we saw last week, this could force the Patriot offense to put more of the game in Brissett’s hands. That is a good thing for the Seahawks.

What kind of player is Brissett?

He has carved an interesting career in the NFL, starting for five different NFL teams and serving as a backup for a sixth.

Teams like him because he plays smart. He does not turn the ball over and he can gain some yards with some well-placed scrambles.

So why is he on his fifth team in five years?

He does not win you games.

He is best utilized when he throws about 20-24 times and just keeps the offense on schedule. He rarely makes dynamic plays and that low turnover percentage comes with a price: He has a career 61.3 completion percentage. Throwing away the ball instead of forcing things keeps things on schedule but the defense does not have to adjust for his ability to attack the whole field with his arm.

Look at his passing chart for last week:

Look familiar at all? That is very similar to Bo Nix’s performance last week: Getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible, lots of throws behind or around the line of scrimmage, with true shots downfield unsuccessful. Also, running for his life when his offensive line was overwhelmed.

If the Seahawks can keep a lid on the running game – particularly in key spots, like third-and-6 or so – the pendulum of success swings heavily in their direction.

At that point, using coverages to take away easy targets (or swarming to keep the YAC as low as possible) will prove a very successful way to attack this offense.

Why?

When Brissett gets the ball out of his hands in under 2.5 seconds, his career completion percentage is 68.7 – an incredible number.

Over 2.5 seconds? When he has to process and get to his second or third read or throw off-balance? It plummets to 55.9%.

As for clutch moments, he is one of the worst in the NFL. He has a 46.3% completion rate in the red zone (where the windows are much, much tighter) and on third downs his rate is 57.4%.

We all know the reason the Patriots employ Brissett. He is a steady placeholder quarterback that will not win you games but also will not lose you games. Drake Maye needs development and keeping him from having to play behind the current offensive line is more than wise – it’s an investment that is as sound as any in the NFL at this point.

Keep the Patriots from their plan of attack: Running the ball liberally and having Brissett distribute safe but short passes to the playmakers.

Disrupt it. Make them change it and go to a less-desirable option. It is very doable with this new defense that Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks have cooked up.

A quick note from Rob — tonight’s post-game live stream will take place later than usual. It will begin approximately 30 minutes after the Bengals vs Chiefs game has finished.

The NFL is overpaying quarterbacks, so will someone try a different approach?

September 12, 2024 /

Maybe it’s just a week one thing? It wouldn’t be the first time the opening slate of games provided an outlier across the NFL.

I found this interesting though:

It’s not just that 2024 is so low on this list. It’s right next to 2023. For the last two seasons, offensive football has been pretty poor in week one.

There could be a good reason for this. It feels like fewer teams than ever play their starters in pre-season. This is possibly giving defenses an advantage where offensive execution and detail can, I suppose, be outdone by a lot of disciplined running and hitting.

The NFL is a constantly evolving league though. I was speaking to someone within the NFL earlier this year who reckoned the Shanahan-inspired offenses would only last so long and that we might see a return to a more ‘old-fashioned’ brand of football. I didn’t ask for details but after week one, you can see why they might have a point.

Offensive lines are bad across the league. Even the Titans, who spent the 7th pick in this year’s draft and the 11th pick last year on their left tackle and left guard, struggled to do much of anything up front. They also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry to a four-year contract and employed one of the top O-line coaches in the league in Bill Callahan.

With such a league-wide O-line problem, we saw teams look for solutions last weekend. Nothing was more striking than what we saw in Seattle. They turned to the running game for relief after a dismal first half of pass-pro. I’d suggest it might be a tactic others increasingly turn to. If you can’t pass protect properly, get your guys to come off the ball and run block. Quite a few teams can’t protect properly.

From 2011 — Drew Brees’ most productive season in the NFL — to Patrick Mahomes’ first year as a starter in 2018 where he scored 50 touchdowns — the league average for the highest number of scores by a QB was 43. That has since dropped to 40.8 from 2019 to 2023. That average will dip below 40 if the leading quarterback this season fails to match Dak Prescott’s 36 passing touchdowns from 2023. It’s not that long ago that it felt like we might start to see a player top 50 touchdowns annually.

We’ll need to wait and see if there’s any significant shift developing here in terms of defensive excellence combined with a run-game renaissance but it won’t be the worst thing for the Seahawks given the identity and philosophy of their new coaching staff.

The thing I’m curious about though is how a reduction in league-wide quarterback production is coinciding with a massive increase in quarterback salary. We all know it’s happening because league revenue is increasing and so is the cap. We’re also seeing defensive linemen, offensive tackles and in particular wide receivers getting huge extensions too.

Yet for the most part, we aren’t seeing non-elite players get elite contracts — apart from at quarterback.

Jeremy Fowler noted this on ESPN recently:

“Life in the middle is better than life without a quarterback,” one NFL head coach said. “It’s just so hard to win without a capable passer that teams are willing to overpay for a known commodity.” That sentiment will continue to drive the market, even if teams are fatigued by doling out top-of-market deals to quarterbacks who aren’t top five at their position. This comes against the backdrop of Week 1 quarterback play that was mostly mediocre. Seventeen of 32 starting QBs threw for fewer than 200 yards, while six were sacked at least four times.”

Jordan Love ($55m a year), Trevor Lawrence ($55m), Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1m) and Jared Goff ($53m) are not among the NFL’s QB elite. They are among the highest paid players in the league though, along with Joe Burrow ($55m), simply because of the position they play. Dak Prescott recently set the record with a new $60m a year deal.

I appreciate there are ways and means of working around these contracts to prevent teams evaporating their cap space every year. It’s still a huge commitment to make just to avoid, as the unnamed NFL coach said above, ending up without a ‘known commodity’.

I’d argue some of these players being known commodities is exactly why they shouldn’t be given huge contracts.

What did we know about Kirk Cousins this year? We knew he was a 36-year-old free agent quarterback coming off a serious injury, one of the worst kinds of injures for recovery (achilles). He’s never had difference making traits or any significant success in his career. Cousins is the type of player who provides a base level of performance that prevents a team from being awful — but you can just as easily argue he’ll never take you to greatness either.

He was given $45m a year in Atlanta.

Did anyone watch Daniel Jones’ first four years in the NFL and see anything other than mediocre at best? The Giants didn’t even take up his fifth-year option. After one season where Jones basically played a supportive role in a playoff year, he was given $40m annually.

Derek Carr’s been around for a long time without really achieving much. He has never been able to elevate his performance beyond ‘not bad’. The Saints chucked $37.5m a year at him in what now feels quite a cheap contract compared to some of the other deals. Had he been a free agent a year or two later, the reality is Carr likely would’ve earned as much as Cousins.

Everyone gets more. Tua feels completely replaceable within a scheme that has succeeded with multiple different players, not to mention they have two amazing receivers to throw to and a dynamite running game. The Dolphins gave him $53m a year. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t remotely lived up to expectation so far but the Jaguars will give him a top salary of $55m to see if another year or two will help.

In the meantime, something really frustrating happens. There’s very little in the way of asking whether any of this is warranted or ‘right’. Instead, we just get people readjusting what constitutes market value, before talking up the next player to get ‘what they deserve’. As other players get paid too much, the next one waits his turn.

Geno Smith’s $38.5m cap hit for 2025 is often described as quite cheap by some fans and media. It’s only cheap, though, compared to the inflated salaries others are getting. It doesn’t mean you need to do the same thing.

I’d recommend reading Mike Sando’s latest article from the Athletic on the subject. It’s pretty much the first time I’ve seen any piece touch on something we’ve been discussing for a while.

Why aren’t teams prepared to play hardball and eventually move on?

Here’s a quote from one anonymous source per Sando:

“Most of the coaches and GMs haven’t won enough to be able to tell their owners, ‘You know what? Let’s reset.”

This is probably what it comes down to. It’s hard enough to manage an owner when you reveal you’re taking a quarterback in round one. Sometimes, the owner might be telling you to make the pick. Either way, it could be a challenge to then walk into the same office four years later and say you want to cut bait.

Your job could be in jeopardy if you’re admitting you made a mistake on a QB. In some cases, it might be easier to make a case that the player is ‘close’ to being great, you actually made the right decision and the owner should pay your hand-selected player to enable him to reach his destiny (aka don’t fire me yet).

Or, if that quarterback has produced some level of production (eg Tua), the owner might want to know why you want to risk turning his marketable, winning team back into a potential clown-show with a no-name quarterback.

This is where I think the Seahawks might be able to find an edge. John Schneider seems to have enough respect and control in Seattle to do what he wants. It certainly appears he came out on top when the time came to make a call on Russell Wilson’s future and Pete Carroll’s.

I suspect whatever he decides to do will be respected. Thus, he’ll be left alone to make any big decision on a quarterback.

I don’t expect he’ll be under any pressure to deliver a huge extension to Geno Smith next off-season unless it’s earned. So while Smith might be telling the CBS sideline reporter at the Denver game that he’s motivated by Seattle’s decision not to award him a new contract this summer (why did he expect one?) — the Seahawks are not likely to feel any pressure to do anything they don’t feel comfortable doing. Unlike other teams, I’m not convinced they’ll feel obliged to act, especially with Smith under contract for 2025. I don’t think they’ll be rushing to do something unless they’re absolutely sure — unlike some other teams who have seemingly rolled dices with fingers and toes crossed.

Equally, assuming Schneider has years at the helm still to come, he’ll have an opportunity to draft a quarterback in the future and make a decision in due course on whether to pay them big money or not.

Eventually someone is going to do things differently. A team always does. While the rest of the league throws money at non-elite quarterbacks, will a team be brave enough to say ‘no’? To seek value at the position rather than overpay in order to have a ‘known commodity’? To avoid making a huge financial decision based around the feeling that things ‘could be worse’?

Geno Smith is a good example of a reclamation project that has delivered a bit of success to Seattle. Baker Mayfield is another example in Tampa Bay.

It won’t be a surprise if Kevin O’Connell gets a tune out of Sam Darnold this year (they had a good start in week one). Jacoby Brissett seems to bounce around a bit but never really seems to play that badly when he gets a chance.

I’m not sure there’s a significant difference between some of these ‘prove it’ types and some of the players getting big money. There are obvious ‘flops’ too — Mitch Trubisky has not taken his second chance, Jameis Winston hasn’t been able to stick anywhere as a starter and Carson Wentz’s career fell of a cliff quickly. It shows there’s risk involved in moving on — but either way, if you’re not winning a Super Bowl, are you really any worse off?

I look at it this way. Seek greatness via the draft, while acknowledging it can take a long time to find it. Failing that, look for value and production. Do not pay a huge salary to someone undeserving, just because they are a quarterback. Even if that means making a difficult decision.

A new reclamation project will be available soon for someone. Bryce Young, once considered the unanimous #1 overall pick (although some of us preferred CJ Stroud) and highly rated among many NFL teams, will probably soon be looking for a fresh start. He looks terrible at the moment but someone, somewhere will give him a chance. There will be others in the same boat.

The draft is a hugely difficult projection game but one that comes with great financial benefit if you get the right player.

Experience can matter and as we’re seeing, players who’ve been around a long time can actually benefit from getting a new opportunity later in their careers. They can be a lot cheaper, too.

Being prepared to look for value at quarterback might be a strong tactic in the future. It could free up extra money to invest in offensive linemen for example, or other free agents. If defensive football has a greater impact on the league in the coming seasons — combining a great defense with a functioning offense might give you half a chance (as it did for Denver in 2015 and to a lesser extent, Seattle in 2013).

Market value is being set by teams spending too much money on undeserving quarterbacks. You can either be sucked in by that and join the club, or you can seek a different path that might actually give you a financial and footballing edge. I know which approach I hope the Seahawks choose.

Scouting notes week two: Quinn Ewers continues to impress

September 11, 2024 /

Quinn Ewers is building momentum

I’ve long thought that teams would be more interested in Quinn Ewers’ natural talent than the internet was. In an age where big stats and flashy one-off plays clipped for social media are king, the NFL still requires basic fundamentals such as footwork, throwing with anticipation, arm strength and translatable game-evidence to project success.

These skills don’t guarantee anything at the next level but they’re basic aspects of scouting that are sometimes overlooked online, which is often why we see players over-projected.

Ewers’ display on the road against Alabama last year would’ve stuck in the minds of many in the NFL. It was a terrific showcase of the clear gifts he has a quarterback, mixed in with a top-level performance in a hostile environment against a high-level opponent, where his performance significantly contributed to the win — all while showing off NFL caliber throws.

His latest win against Michigan isn’t quite as comparable because they’ve turned into a shoddy mess after losing a bunch of talent (personnel and coaching) to the NFL. Yet it was another tick in a box for Ewers. Texas blew Michigan’s doors off, they didn’t just win. Ewers, with many projectable throws in the game, was integral to everything. He excelled against a Wink Martindale defense carrying two potential top-10 picks.

Here are the key notes — he again showed terrific poise in the pocket, a good arm, anticipation and accuracy and he was in total command of the offense.

Let’s just take a moment to reflect on the last few months for Ewers. Many Texas fans wanted him out of the way so Arch Manning could take over. Draft Twitter loved to diminish his talent and NFL potential, choosing to elevate others instead. It has felt like a lot of people have been waiting for him to fail.

The fact he is taking this in his stride so brilliantly and looks better than ever to start this season is testament to his character.

He started the Michigan game with a 40-yard touch pass thrown in-between two defenders, setting the tone. He was denied a touchdown on the opening drive due to a hold — but what he did, running to the right sideline and throwing across his body for a 30-yard score, would’ve had Twitter shouting ‘first overall pick’ a year ago if it was Drake Maye.

He came straight back on the next drive and got his touchdown — leading a great drive that ended with brilliant pocket manipulation to move away from pressure, step-up and then throw perfectly on the move into the end zone for a highly skilful score that he made look easy:

With 6:42 left in the first half he again stepped up through traffic in a crowded pocket, side-stepped two defenders into an area of space and then flicked his wrist, delivering a bullet 25-yards downfield between three defenders.

Look at the anticipation on the throw (see screen grab). You can see when he releases the football the receiver is actually positioned and blocked off by the defender to the right of the shaded circle. You can’t even see the receiver in the screen-grab below. He throws to the area (circled) he anticipates his receiver will run into and he does this while on the move, avoiding pressure to create space in the pocket. There is no reduction in arm strength or accuracy when he throws on the run:

This is a NFL play. There simply aren’t many quarterbacks in college who can evade pressure with this level of ease, then while on the move just flick their wrist to generate power on the football with a super-quick release and deliver a highly accurate, layered pass. By the way, this throw happened on 3rd and 10. That’s a money down. This is what you look for.

His second touchdown was on the run, moving to his left hand side and he’s asked to throw across his body to a covered receiver at the left pylon. As a play-call I am not a fan of this play. It demands a lot from a quarterback with a high risk of a turnover if the execution is off. It’s very difficult to run to your left as a right handed QB and throw to such a small strike zone with velocity and accuracy. He nailed it:

There was a throw with 11:34 left in the third quarter where he just casually rolls back off play-action and throws with little balance and no set-feet with more velocity and accuracy than most players manage with their feet planted in a clean pocket. He makes a big completion to the sideline and it looked easy.

Ewers was poised in the pocket throughout, at one point staring down pressure, anticipating a hit and still delivering a perfect dime over the middle on 2nd and 15 for a first down. Joe Klatt on commentary called the pass ‘beautiful’ and he’s bloody right. I’ve come to think Ewers almost makes things look too easy sometimes because of his natural ability and a lot of what he does well is taken for granted.

Ideally would he be a bit bigger? Yes. Does he have to show he can stay consistent and healthy this year? Absolutely. I do believe though that NFL evaluators will rate him very highly. Ewers is a legit player and is very much in the QB1 running and therefore in the running to be the top pick, should he maintain this level of performance. I suspect he’ll get a lot more attention after this game and really, it’s overdue compared to some of the other quarterbacks getting pumped-up online.

Riley Leonard is what he is

I was amazed by just how bad Notre Dame were against Northern Illinois. I started watching live in the second half after returning from a long working trip. They couldn’t move the ball. They had absolutely no means of driving on NIU. Meanwhile, their far less established opponents were beating them up in the trenches when they had possession and putting consistent drives together.

NIU would move across half-way only to stall just outside of field goal range and then fail on a fourth down attempt. In the end, they did just enough to get into range for the winning kick. Make no mistake though — it was their O-line driving people off the ball. It was their defense timing pressure and blitzes to perfection. It was their quarterback making clutch plays on key downs. They thoroughly deserved to win.

NIU had two sacks and four TFL’s in the game, plus two picks. Notre Dame managed zero sacks and three TFL’s with no turnovers. Northen Illinois had a yardage advantage of 388 vs 286 and over nine more minutes of possession.

This brings me on to Riley Leonard. It just isn’t happening. The athletic potential has always been there but his total inability in this game to get even one drive going when it mattered said it all. He has no composure in the pocket, you can’t rely on his arm to get the job done and he simply isn’t a good enough passer to start in the NFL. He is a big athlete playing quarterback.

Look at his lousy interception late on — basically a big embarrassing arm punt into coverage when trying to protect or add to a small lead. Notre Dame are one-point up and he does that. A turnover, a return for great field position, a drive, a successful kick and a win for NIU.

Leonard is showing that despite his move to Notre Dame, he’s little more than a day three project at best. He finished 20/32 for 163 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Shedeur Sanders shows the other side to his evaluation

Last week I thought Sanders was excellent as Colorado struggled to beat North Dakota State. I praised his clear natural talent, both in terms of physicality and accuracy. He has the ability to be the top pick in 2025. Saturday reminds you why that might not happen.

Granted, he had no chance against Nebraska. His offensive line, just as it was last year, is abject. However, look at what we saw on Sunday. There’s bad offensive line play all across the NFL. The chances are he’ll be drafted to play on a team where the O-line is sub-par.

You won’t be able to say this after a game at the next level:

Sanders has managed to call out both his O-line and D-line here. And look, he has a point. But you don’t say this in public. You see every year, quarterbacks bending over backwards in the NFL to promote and thank their O-line teammates. Some buy them luxury gifts or take them out to dinner. There’s almost an unwritten rule that in the NFL, you have to look after the guys employed to look after you.

NFL evaluators will have noted this clip. If a team drafting in the top-15 takes him as part of an incomplete roster-build, is he going to start blaming the offensive line if things go badly? Leadership is about more than talent and execution. At the moment, Sanders very much feels like a player who has been the ‘bosses son’ throughout his college career.

Some teams will care about this and the rather weird social media adventure over the summer more than others. Some will have reservations about ‘Coach Prime’ and his likely noisy influence if they draft Shedeur. Other teams will just go all-in on the talent.

I have a theory that stuff like this is off-putting enough for Sanders to probably last deeper into round one than his talent ever should allow, creating a repeat of the Lamar Jackson situation. If you remember the 2018 draft, Lamar made his mother his agent with disastrous consequences. Teams found it hard to arrange meetings with him. He refused to do certain testing/workouts. A player with immense, obvious talent suddenly lasted to the final pick in round one.

Sanders has everything you need to be a good NFL quarterback in terms of skill. But if he wants to max-out his draft potential, he can’t be slamming his O-line publicly. Do that behind closed doors, with your dad, in his office. Everyone else is already noting how bad the O-line is, you don’t need to get involved.

In terms of what he showed against Nebraska, he threw a terrible interception by hitching and throwing way too late from inside his own endzone. He telegraphed the route and made it easy for the cornerback to undercut the route. As bad as his pass-pro was, he too often looked for the big play instead of just getting the ball out. He’s looking for massive chunk plays and needs to do a better job of taking what’s there.

Even so, he again showed clear physical potential and he has everything necessary to be an extremely high pick. Teams will have reservations though.

Other notes

— There was hope that Jalen Milroe would take a big step forward working with Kalen DeBoer but so far we aren’t seeing it. He deserves time working for a new coach but against USF his accuracy still was a concern when his feet aren’t set. He still looks like an athlete playing quarterback. He faced off against Byrum Brown who some have also talked up at QB. I thought Brown did a good job as a runner but showed little in the way of poise and accuracy as a passer.

— Garrett Nussmeier only had to contend with the Nicholls Colonels on Saturday but I thought he played very well again. He’s accurate, poised, throws with nice touch, he can move around, he throws well on the run and just does a lot of things at a good level. I’m not sure if he has major upside but he does a lot of things with a natural flair and he looked like a NFL player in his two starts so far.

— A few people have asked me to do more on the non-QB positions and I promise I will. Typically I like to get a good feel for the QB’s and then move on to other positions. I will say though, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has a chance to go in round one. He runs through tackles but shows good contact balance, he finishes runs, he can be an asset in the passing game, he can break off big runs and out-run defensive backs, he accelerates well to maximise openings and he just looks tremendous. He broke nine tackles against Oregon and has forced 22 missed tackles in two weeks. Jeanty is a stud.

— One of my favourite players eligible for 2025 is Alabama offensive line Tyler Booker. He plays with tremendous physicality, he’s a legit grown-man leader with elite-level maturity and on Saturday he was asked to shift from left guard to left tackle due to an injury to a teammate. The position-switch didn’t change his playing style:

Here’s Kalen DeBoer talking about Booker after the USF win:

Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Broncos in very weird game

September 8, 2024 /

The opening game of the Mike Macdonald era had enough talking points to fill a month of discussion. There were extreme positives and negatives, reasons for optimism and concern. The Seahawks threatened to blow a winnable game, then threatened to blow out their opponents. It ended up being closer than necessary.

The big talking point is the offensive line. It crippled the Seahawks in the first half, destroying the offense and diminishing a strong effort by the defense. We’ve all seen bad lines before but this was something else. Nothing worked. Worse still, they initially weren’t finding ways to mitigate the problem.

By the time they’d given up two safeties it had reached a point of embarrassment. A serious looking injury to George Fant added insult to injury.

I had bad thoughts at half-time. How on earth do you fix this in-season? Is Ryan Grubb’s conversion to the NFL just not going to work? Are we really going to have to watch 17 games of this?

Thankfully, they found solutions at half-time. The move to a run-heavy offense settled things down. They leaned on Ken Walker, who was sensational, and suddenly were the team dominating physically. As much as a terrible O-line can derail anything, the second half was a great example of strong play in the trenches driving a team forwards.

Kudos to Grubb for fixing things. We haven’t seen much in the way of adjustments over the last few years, especially not to this effect. It’s encouraging.

They have to play the way they did in the second half next weekend in New England. The concern has to be though, it will become predictable very quickly. While they can lean on the run for now, they’ve got to find a way to improve the performance of this line pronto to expand their options.

There has to be concern about the interior. Laken Tomlinson struggled badly, as did Anthony Bradford. Perhaps playing next to a returning-from-injury Connor Williams didn’t help, along with the lack of familiarity that comes with four new starters up front? Nevertheless, their ability to improve the offensive line will likely dictate Seattle’s ceiling in 2024.

Back to Walker, I sincerely hope he can stay healthy. Playing like this — and if the Seahawks have to lean on the run a lot — he has the talent to contend to be the NFL rushing leader. As a card-carrying fan of violent defense paired with a productive, physical ground attack — I’d love to see that. I’m sure you would too.

I think it’s difficult to form much of an opinion on Geno Smith’s display because of the issues up front. I don’t think the line is an excuse for the bad interception at the start but it certainly was for the rest of a difficult first half. Yet he still made the one great play on offense, rushing for a touchdown in spectacular fashion. Once the running game had settled things down after half-time, he found a far better rhythm and made some accurate, vital throws.

Tyler Lockett’s catch to clinch the game was further evidence of his underrated brilliance. What a critical moment from a player who is a lock to be in the Ring of Honor one day.

Defensively, it was a great performance with the slight caveat that the Seahawks benefitted from playing against Bo Nix and the Broncos. Sean Payton was always going to be conservative with his rookie QB but he went too far — or Nix simply isn’t capable of starting in the NFL at this point.

Clearly they wanted to take the pass rush out of the game with quick passes and by bailing on the pocket quickly. It worked and Seattle’s D-line never had much of a chance to impact things. Everyone else, though, was able to fly around and tee-off on telegraphed dump-offs and short passes.

The defense won’t get this luxury when they face teams like Miami and Detroit in the coming weeks. They will give up some plays because that’s the NFL. They’ll need a lot more support from the offense. Let’s not forget — Macdonald’s Baltimore defense benefitted more than anyone last season from playing with a lead. They’ll need to be comfortable playing in games like the ones we saw on Thursday and Friday night if they want to be really good — trading blows on offense and relying on complementary defense. Here, it was the defense carrying things until the running game caught up. Other teams won’t let Seattle catch up.

Tyrel Dodson was superb and the standout defender for me. Combined with Jerome Baker, I thought Seattle’s linebackers played as well as any pairing since the peak Wagner/Wright days. On top of this, all of the starting defensive backs excelled. Julian Love looks quick and physical and almost like a different player. Rayshawn Jenkins had a strong debut. Tariq Woolen and Devin Witherspoon were very good as expected.

We’ll see more from the pass rushers when they play an opponent less inclined to play the way Denver did today.

This was a really encouraging start for the unit and it was good to see screen passes stopped, completed open-field tackles and players getting off second-level blocks. Apparently, these things weren’t banned after all. The Seahawks pretty much eliminated any yards after contact. It was a smothering, physical performance — exactly what everyone hoped for.

Dee Williams is on the roster to handle kick returns, so it’s a bad sign for him to fumble in week one. A suggestion from me — give him a new number. There’s clearly bad juju attached to #33.

A final thought on Bo Nix in relation to the Seahawks. It’s a warning for what we should be looking for as fans and draft enthusiasts when studying quarterbacks. Nix produced big numbers at Oregon and they won a lot of games. However, when you studied the tape it became apparent that the system and environment was conducive with production, more so than QB inspiration.

We’re seeing that in Oregon now. Dillon Gabriel has 623 passing yards in two games, five total touchdowns, zero turnovers and the Ducks are 2-0. Yet nobody thinks Gabriel has actually played that well and there’s a relatively decent chance he won’t be drafted next year.

Nix never felt like a special player to me and that was emphasised during Senior Bowl practises. I gave him a third round grade, which basically means competent backup for the NFL in quarterback terms.

Unless you possess a fantastically productive scheme that has shown it can transplant different quarterbacks in, I don’t think you can look to players like Nix. Sean Payton clearly thinks he can do this but the jury’s out. He’s had one big success story in Drew Brees, not a string of successes. Kyle Shanahan is a better example of someone having a scheme with interchangeable QB success. Most teams need brilliance. They need extreme physical quality and talent.

There are ways of finding it without owning a top-five pick, as we’ve seen in Seattle with Russell Wilson. Yet you’ve got to look for those standout qualities. That isn’t easy to find — and it’s probably why John Schneider hasn’t drafted QB’s. If he is looking for special, he will wait until it’s there. The evidence so far is that he hasn’t whiffed on anyone since trading Wilson.

It’s also worth noting that while searching for special, you will find it in terms of traits and it won’t always be obvious that it can/will translate to NFL success. Caleb Williams has special qualities galore and he endured an inauspicious start in Chicago on Sunday. Anthony Richardson has more physical talent than maybe anyone else in the NFL, regardless of position, and yet he’s still learning how to be a quarterback. It took Josh Allen two years of strife to become the player he is in Buffalo and he still has some doubters now. Looking for it is important but it carries no guarantee.

I do think today shows us it’s worth waiting for ‘special’ qualities, though. Reaching on a player like Nix will not provide solutions. The Seahawks will need to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later, even if Geno Smith succeeds. He is not a young player and very few make it to their late 30’s, even if they’ve had an unusual career with a lower number of starts. We all get old and that comes with consequences, regardless of your tally of NFL appearances.

Making an ill-advised draft reach on a QB will not be wise. It might only be one game but I don’t see Nix providing the solution Broncos fans hoped for. The Seahawks need to avoid an error like this in the future — and that will require patience and fortune.

Curtis Allen’s week one watch-notes (vs Denver)

September 8, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

“We underachieved in 2023. We all did. Now we’re in a situation where we need to get better. We overachieved in 2022, and we underachieved in 2023 and everybody recognizes that. It’s time for all of us to look into the mirror, myself included, and move forward.”

John Schneider, with those words – spoken in his first press conference after Pete Carroll was fired – set in motion one of the most impressive offseasons in Seahawk history.

Gone was one of the longest-tenured coaches in the NFL. His replacement? A brilliant young tactician without any head coaching experience at this level.

The Offensive Coordinator who frustrated fans and players alike? Also gone. An innovator at the college level with no ties to the current administration was brought in to take advantage of all the weaponry the team had acquired.

The roster? Reshaped to fit their vision. Gone are expensive players who lacked the ability to dramatically alter the outcome of the game. In their place, a rededication to adding depth and talent to the trenches, along with an aggressive mentality that both incorporates intelligence and rises above mere bravado.

The attitude of the whole organization has been shifted as well. Players are held accountable, as are coaches. Excellence in the fundamental aspects of the game is the expectation, not some higher goal to be spoken about motivationally.

Will all these offseason changes bear fruit?

We are about to find out.

First up, the Denver Broncos are in town, themselves having undergone an organizational shakeup.

Gone is Quarterback Russell Wilson, leaving behind a whopping $85 million dead cap number.

Gone are talented players they could not afford.

Wide Receiver Jerry Jeudy and Center Lloyd Cushenberry each signed $50+ million contracts with other teams. Four-year starting Linebacker Josey Jewell signed with the Panthers. Pro Bowl Safety Justin Simmons was cut and signed with Atlanta.

In their place are rookie Quarterback Bo Nix, Wide Receiver Marvin Mims (a second-year player who was more of a returner than a receiver last year), Center Luke Wattenberg (who has one career NFL start), old friend Cody Barton at Linebacker and Safety Brandon Jones, who lost his job at times in Miami due to coverage issues.

The talent pipeline is thin in Denver. Pound for pound, they might be one of the NFL’s least talented rosters.

Their saving grace might be that they have one of the NFL’s best coaches in Sean Payton. He guided the Broncos from an awful 0-3 start (which included an embarrassing 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins) to a respectable 8-9 record, which included wins over Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo and Minnesota in consecutive games.

Therefore, despite the clear talent advantage the Seahawks have, nobody should be taking this game lightly.

How can the Seahawks start their new era with a win? Let us dig into the watch points.

Use the Offense to Control the Game

The Seahawk offense is loaded for bear with talent at the skill positions. They are deep and each player brings something different to the table.

The offensive line – while admittedly being the biggest concern on the team – has made an excellent addition in new Center Connor Williams. He will help stabilize the interior.

Meanwhile, the Broncos featured one of the NFL’s worst defenses last year and yet retained Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph. Due to the constraints we mentioned, they were not able to add significant talent this offseason, and in fact lost some of their better players. They are desperately needing tremendous steps forward from their younger players.

The skill advantage is clear. This is where the Seahawks should plan to exert their will and control the game.

How? Let’s look at Joseph’s numbers as a defensive coach the last five seasons and see what we can discern:

As you can see, Joseph’s defenses have rarely reached the top half of the league in defending the run game. Last year, they were dead last in terms of Yards per Attempt allowed. Even if you scratch out the game where Miami ran for an amazing 350 yards, the Broncos still finish in the bottom five.

Oddly enough though, twelve teams faced more total rushing attempts than the Broncos did last year. When you are getting five yards per carry, why would you not simply lean hard on the run game to trample your opponent?

The Seahawks have a dynamic rushing attack and they need to use it liberally in this game. It gives the offensive line confidence at a very early stage, keeps the clock running, allows the defense to rest and maybe keep some of their tricks hidden for other teams, and opens up the passing game via play action.

In Week 15 last year, the Detroit Lions used the running game against Denver to great effect, rushing 28 times and throwing 36 times. They gained 185 yards on the ground, using the Thunder & Lightning team of David Montgomery (17 rushes) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11 rushes). They also gained the team ten first downs and broke four tackles.

After Montgomery tenderized the defense, Gibbs slashed through them. Look at all the explosive runs on his chart:

It is not hard to envision Ken Walker having exactly this kind of day against the Broncos defense. Particularly if they employ Zach Charbonnet to break some tackles and get some tough yards.

Take a look at that Vance Joseph chart for his stats on the pass rush he employs. Notice a pattern? He is one of the NFL’s heaviest blitzing coaches. The Seahawks saw it all the time when he coached the Cardinals.

And yet, is it effective? No. Particularly not last year. Joseph sent blitzers at the fifth-highest rate, and yet created one of the worst pressure rates, only three steps up from the worst unit in the NFL.

However, Joseph’s blitzes are not always designed specifically to get to the passer. They are used to create confusion. To get the Quarterback guessing about who is blitzing pre-snap, and then reacting to who is actually blitzing on the play. It is frequently used as a distraction technique, to disrupt the play and win the down. Sacking the quarterback is a bonus.

Successfully combating blitzes is something the Seahawks need to excel at. Or at least return to their 2022 form. In that year, they had a 65.8% completion rate when blitzed and averaged 5.65 yards per play. In 2023, it was more ‘feast or famine’ with passers completing 59.8% when blitzed, but with 6.36 yards per play and they gained first downs at a better rate.

How can they be better this year? One factor is by having good First and Second downs, which can dramatically reduce the high-pressure Third downs.

Another is by something I have seen in training camp: This creative Mike Macdonald defense has thrown blitzers at the offense in scrimmages from every angle imaginable. From standard pre-snap looks to bizarre concoctions that the Quarterback has to decipher and respond to in real time.

There will not be anything the Broncos throw at Geno Smith that he has not already seen in camp. Likely several times. Can that experience benefit him to a degree that it can alter the outcome of the game?

Finding the hot read or dumping the ball off to a waiting running back will be very important to keep the offense on track.

A bit of good news there: the Linebackers are awful in coverage. Alex Singleton was picked on in the passing game as much as any Linebacker in the NFL, with an ugly 85 targets. He gave up an 80% completion rate and 8.4 yards per catch.

Cody Barton was no better in Washington, with 47 targets with a 78.7% rate and 7 yards per catch.

If Ryan Grubb can find a way to get them in coverage, they should exploit it all game long.

Defend the Entire Line of Scrimmage – Particularly the Middle

Sean Payton’s offense does two things that are difficult to defend: The Quarterback is coached to process quickly and get rid of the ball in a hurry to nullify the pass rush, and they regularly use screen passes as a run game substitute.

Seeing as this is Bo Nix’s first NFL game, we can expect several screens as a way to ease him into his rookie season. Last year, Russell Wilson threw passes to receivers behind the line of scrimmage 27% of the time – a pretty odd number for Wilson considering his profile. What did Nix do at Oregon last year? Glad you asked. The same 27% of his pass plays were to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. He will have no problem operating this part of the offense, and will likely do so better than Wilson did, as he is simply a better fit.

Players will need to be ready for this, having practiced noticing the signs of a screen (like linemen letting rushers come free right off the snap) and pursuing the receiver with all due vigor.

What about the quick passing game? Corners need to respect wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, but if they can jam or disrupt a route even slightly, that could knock the timing off and make Nix have to think on his feet. Most NFL Quarterbacks have trouble with finding their second or third read (just ask Jared Goff), let alone a rookie in his first start. It might be worth occasionally gambling on getting beat to try jamming their receiver to knock the offense out of alignment at a key point in the game.

Something to keep in mind though: Nix has the legs to get out of trouble if his first read is not there. If the edges are cleared out by a pass rusher going too deep, he will take off and run and gain yards that way.

Look at this play in the preseason against the Packers.

The Broncos come out with five receivers and an empty backfield. Also notice Left Tackle Garett Bolles is way off the ball – a sure flag if he does it in a real game.

At the snap, the inside rusher on the left side retreats to a coverage spot, practically turning his back to Nix, and Bolles (using his position advantage) routes the pass rusher upfield.

Notice in the next picture the pass rusher is nearly 10 yards upfield now.

This creates a wide open edge for Nix to scramble and pick up yardage.

Nix will take advantage of holes like that all day if he has them. The Seahawks need to coach their edges to maintain their gaps and use good judgement about when to really step on the gas in the pass rush.

Does that mean they should not try to put pressure on Nix? Of course not. But that pressure needs to come from the middle of the field, be it from standard rushing of Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed or Byron Murphy, or from blitzing Devon Witherspoon or one of the Linebackers. Why?

One of the reasons Bo Nix was so effective in the preseason is he had a clean pocket and got into a rhythm with it. Take the shotgun snap, 3-step drop, 2-steps forward into the pocket as he assesses and then pass. If he has no ability or time to get into that kind of a groove, his processing will struggle. As will his mechanics. He has good feet and can throw on the run, but he has a tendency to get out of alignment in the pocket and make inaccurate throws because he is not square to the receiver. Pushing the middle of the field with intensity will force this kind of reaction from him.

Luke Wattenberg will be in his first game as the starting Center at the position, and Bo Nix rarely took snaps from the Center at Oregon – preferring to work from shotgun – so there may be some inexperience there that the Seahawks can take advantage of. True, he will be flanked by $120 million of guard with Ben Powers on his left and Quinn Meinerz on his right, but this could prove to be a real area of trouble for the Broncos.

Speaking of shotgun, when Sean Payton called for the Quarterback to take the snap from under Center last year instead of from shotgun, 72% of the time it was for a run. With Payton likely wanting to ease Nix into his career, when we see him line up under Center, it may be a tell to the defense that a run is coming.

Win the Unknowns of Week One

There are always surprises in the first week of the season. New players, new plays, wrinkles teams have been working on all offseason in order to catch the opposition off guard, things like that.

The Seahawks have to win their share of the unknowns.

Primarily, that means winning the turnover battle (that impressive four-game winning streak by the Broncos last year? They were +11 in turnover ratio!), playing clean Special Teams and not committing penalties at key times in the game.

Good coaching and solid fundamentals go a long way towards being successful here.

How will Riley Moss fare at Cornerback opposite Patrick Surtain? He only has 23 snaps of NFL experience, but appears to have won the job in camp. Surtain is one of the best and Ja’Quan McMillan is a very solid nickel corner. Will the Seahawks try to exploit that matchup?

What will Jerome Baker look like at Linebacker, having missed so much time in the offseason?

Can George Fant be more than just a fill-in at Right Tackle while Abe Lucas heals? Can they run their full offensive complement with him on that side?

Will Dre’Mont Jones have an impact on the game in this new defense?

Will a Bronco receiver other than Courtland Sutton rise to the occasion when called?

They will need him to. Mike Macdonald has a knack for keeping the opposition’s top receiver weapon in check. In 2022 and 2023, he faced Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens and Amari Cooper a total of thirteen times. Result? He held them to an average of 4.3 catches for 57 yards and .3 touchdowns. Now that is impressive. How did he do it? One of the ways is by using deception in a technique described in this video.

The Seahawks need to turn an impressive offseason into a successful season on the field. That may not come in the form of winning every single game, but playing tough, fundamentally sound football that makes use of the talent on the roster. That will go a long way toward restoring team pride and fans’ confidence in this organization.

Why I’m very bullish about the Seahawks in 2024

September 6, 2024 /

This is the most engaged I’ve felt about the Seahawks in years.

Part of it is pure intrigue for a new staff and something different. Part of it is relief that we actually got the change that was needed.

Part of it is also about what the Seahawks are, or at least can be.

One of the best thing’s I did during the long old wait between the draft and the start of the new season was participate in a NFC West ‘fantasy draft’ live streamed on Hawk Blogger’s channel. I took turns picking players from the four teams with Brian, Jeff Simmons and Griffin Sturgeon.

I wanted to do it properly and with a spare afternoon on my hands, I sat down and put together a full horizontal board of all the players on each of the four rosters. Yes, I know, what a fascinating social life I must have.

My expectation going in was that an army of San Francisco players would flood the top of the board, followed by a mix of the others. While it was true that the 49ers clearly had blue chip, proven stars the others lacked (Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Fred Warner etc) — I had a lot of young Seahawks players in the second and third tier.

I think the feeling over the last few years is that combined together, John Schneider and Pete Carroll had done an underwhelming job. At least in the eyes of fans with Super Bowl ambitions, rather than merely avoiding be awful.

This exercise planted a different thought. The Seahawks have added a lot of good, young talent. What they badly need now is a staff able to turn these players from good to great. They need players to turn into stars.

D.K. Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Charles Cross, Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall. Then you chuck Byron Murphy into the mix and hopefully Abe Lucas in the future.

Not all of these young players can become ‘great’. What if 4-5 can become great, though? Is is possible? I think so.

Then you glean what you can from training camp and pre-season to try and get to know the new staff. That isn’t easy to do and really we won’t have a grasp of their capabilities until the regular season games start this weekend.

There have been some very encouraging signs, though.

Jarran Reed has spent many years in Seattle. These comments, saying that ‘grown man football’ and ‘physicality’ were back in Seattle, while admitting some of that had been lost in the final throws of the Carroll regime, is interesting:

The pre-season games spoke to this in a small way. The Seahawks did play a more intense brand of football against the Chargers. They flew around, made tackles and felt like they were close to multiple turnovers. It felt a bit like the early Carroll days again.

The opening drive on offense against Cleveland was both clinical and aggressive. There was no tentatively trying anything out here. Big shots, dagger in the heart, touchdown and off to the showers for the starting unit. Ryan Grubb and Kalen DeBoer took games to their opponents at Fresno State and Washington. It felt like Grubb was showing that same mentality has travelled with him to the Seahawks.

The way the coaches speak fills you with confidence. Grubb seems brilliantly tailor-made for the pro’s. There’s a degree of confidence, perhaps even borderline cockiness. I’ve heard he might not be for everyone and I’m perfectly fine with that. He’s the polar opposite of the shrinking violet sent out to call plays in previous years. Shane Waldron did not feel like a leader. Grubb does. He sounds totally sure of himself, his plan and he speaks with conviction. If nothing else, it instills confidence in anyone listening to him that things will be just fine this year.

The new OC all but admitted they intend to make the most of Metcalf as a receiver — finally unleashing his massive potential — while also noting the importance of the running game. I suspect we’re about to see huge seasons for Metcalf and Ken Walker.

Aden Durde sounds assured and competent — not to mention stylish and charismatic because he has a British accent. He hasn’t spoken much to the media but Leslie Frazier’s Yoda-like presence is reassuring to assist a new, inexperienced staff. No longer will the Head Coach be relying on an old buddy answering to a nickname that is slang for ‘potato’ or ‘home run’ (the first one felt more apt as time went on).

Then there’s Mike Macdonald. He just seems to be on top of his brief. There will undoubtedly be growing pains. I’m convinced the Seahawks will lose at least one game this year through inexperience of the staff, or blow a game they should win. I’m ready and prepared for it (and you probably should be too).

Yet he also seems brilliantly different to Carroll. Those present at camp have noted a vastly different and more intense, serious approach. He speaks about deception, always looking for ways to find an edge. The slogans and platitudes are a thing of the past. He gives the impression that if a problem emerges during the season he won’t be left promising a change of fortune, or be suggesting they’re close to identifying a fix. He might, you know, actually do something about it.

None of this is to diminish what the early Carroll years achieved. Those days couldn’t last forever though. Eventually you have to embrace change.

There was no greater example of the need for something different than Seattle’s problematic defense. It was bad for too long with no hint of a switch in fortunes. Now, there’s reason to believe they can revamp a defense that has persistently ranked near the bottom of the NFL into an actual force. Macdonald inherited the 28th best defense in the league per DVOA in Baltimore. They then ranked 8th and 1st in his two years as defensive coordinator. Will history repeat as he tries to improve Seattle’s 28th ranked defense from 2023?

While I’m sure the debate over Geno Smith’s long term suitability will dominant a lot of the online discourse this season, the Seahawks only need to be more consistent and manage situations better than the last two years to give themselves a legit chance to make sweeping improvements to an offense loaded with weapons.

Really good teams often have a player or a vital unit that other teams wish they had. With Murphy joining Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed at defensive tackle and with Johnathan Hankins supporting as a big-bodied nose, this is a quartet to envy. When Uchenna Nwosu returns, the Seahawks will have deep supporting talent rushing the edge.

Macdonald helped develop Justin Madubuike into a game-changer, while getting career years out of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy. Giving him the D-line tools he has in Seattle is exciting — particularly in a year where Aaron Donald and Arik Armstead left the NFC West, weakening rival teams in this exact area.

Then there’s the schedule. The first two weeks are kind, even if nothing should be taken for granted. If nothing else, they are two winnable opportunities. Stern tests await against Miami, Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo and LA — but the Seahawks also get the Giants and Vikings at home, they get the Packers in Seattle rather than Lambeau, I’m not convinced the Falcons and Bears are going to be as good as some people think, nor the Jets for that matter.

None of this means the Seahawks are primed for a Super Bowl run. A dose of realism is required. Mere playoff qualification as a wildcard is very plausible and if they get there, winning a post-season game for the first time since 2019 should be seen as a big success.

That would create a degree of momentum and allow the Seahawks to attack the next off-season with a more serious challenge in mind — armed with the kind of experience the coaches currently don’t possess.

I think a bit more than this outlook can be hoped for, if not expected. I think they can compete for the NFC West title. I even think, as with the Packers a year ago, they can make some waves in the playoffs.

Yet it’s just good to be thinking this way again, rather than gearing up for more of the same. Another year where the defense inevitably collapses. Where the coaches talk of physical play when the product on the field defines finesse. Where the tackling stinks. Where answers are not forthcoming to problems, coaches appear out of their depth and you wonder how much longer we have to watch the 49ers and Rams embarrass the Seahawks, particularly at Lumen Field.

Ah yes, Lumen Field. The place that once had a reputation for being such a problem for opponents. The long travel and an arse-kicking often combined for an inevitable loss the following week for teams making the trek to NFL’s Alaska. Yet as pointed out this week, the Seahawks were just 17-16 at home since 2019 with fans in the stadium and 19-15 on the road. How can that possibly be?

It speaks to how easy the Seahawks had become to play against. Those records also point out how they’d become so middle of the road, with little sign of breaking out and regaining true contender status. Who wants to stay locked in a prison of mediocrity, with only short-lived visitation rights for genuine excitement?

Time to set the tone this weekend and recapture home-field advantage. Time for the team to re-engage fans so they don’t sell half their tickets to travelling Niners or Steelers. Time to make Lumen Field a fortress once again, reinvigorated with a new era of Seahawks football — played in stylish throwback jersey’s that feel destined to become Seattle’s staple again in the near future.

Change was necessary and ownership delivered. John Schneider got Carroll’s replacement right and had a good off-season and draft. The staff appear to have things heading in the right direction and now the team can show us what they’ve been working on.

I think we’ll see more points than ever. I think we’ll see more pressure than ever. I think we’ll see these things called ‘turnovers’ return to the defense. It won’t all be great and there will be issues to discuss too. But I suspect the overall product will be a clear net positive.

I don’t think they could ask for a better week one opponent this weekend. Denver will start a rookie quarterback playing his first NFL game. They lack elite weapons or a difference-making pass-rusher. The Seahawks have had weeks to cook-up a confuse-fest for Bo Nix and you have to feel they’ll have opportunities to score on offense, piling on the pressure and pushing the Broncos to step out of a conservative game-plan for their new starter under center.

I won’t insult you with a ‘no game is easy’ cliché. The Seahawks should win at home on Sunday, unless it proves to be the contest they chuck away due to inexperience — which is probably their biggest enemy this weekend. Even then, they are more talented and better placed to attack — on both sides of the ball.

Bring on the new era. Some of us have been waiting a long time for this.

If you missed my latest conversation with Puck Sports, check it out here.

Don’t forget immediately after the game we’ll be doing our post-game live stream on YouTube. I’ll post the embed video on the blog or you can subscribe to my YouTube channel (@robstatonfootball) for notifications.

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