Author: Rob Staton (Page 377 of 422)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Robert Griffin III vs Oklahoma tape review

This was a typical performance from the 2011 version of Robert Griffin III – big plays downfield, a dramatic finish and further evidence of star potential. We’ve said it many times before, but his development from year to year at Baylor is quite phenomenal. In my first mock draft of the year I put him among the top ten picks (#8 Miami) and he could go even higher still.

Even so, I’m still trying to work just how good his deep ball really is. Yes, Griffin has completed a large number of downfield passes for big touchdowns. The Bears, somehow, keep exploiting defenses with the sheer quality of deep speed within their group of receivers. There may not be a faster core of athletes in college football and Kendall Wright in particular will light up the combine next year. More often than not Griffin is throwing into a huge window because of the separation and speed of his targets. Check out the plays at 0:06, 3:08 and 6:18 and tell me those are difficult throws for any quarterback with above average arm strength. The pass at 6:08 was inaccurate and should’ve hit the wide out for another touchdown. There have been instances of just flat out missing a wide open downfield pass at times this season, but you offset that with a number of good plays too.

It’s not that Griffin III is inaccurate in that sense, but there are a lot of examples where he’s throwing to wide open receivers that maybe overplay is deep ball. The pass at 2:28 is over thrown into double coverage – technically he’s plaing it safe putting it in an area where most likely nobody will get it, but perhaps his reciever with elite downfield speed will make an incredible play? In the NFL, if you take away the easier wide open throws are we going to see more of these over thrown ‘no turnover’ passes rather than big downfield completions, as Griffin compensates for not having speed advantages downfield?

Just as you’re starting to wonder whether Griffin’s downfield passing ability is slightly overrated, you see a pass like the one at 4:48. That is just about as accurate as you can get throwing downfield, into a tight window with double coverage. It’s perfection and should’ve been caught for one of the touchdowns of the year. That isn’t just a top-10 draft pick delivery, it’s a first overall pick bomb that very few current NFL quarterbacks are capable of. The pass at 7:17 is a further example of a difficult throw with the necessary pace to find a receiver for a big play.

There are other examples of similar quality too. The pass at 2:42 shows good awareness to sense the pressure and he adjusts his angle to throw a quick strike to his receiver. This is where Griffin’s release and arm strength may be most important, because it enables him to make a quick completion in a difficult situation. Once Wright receives the ball in space, he’s able to make a huge play but it all starts with Griffin getting the ball to his playmaker. At 4:27 he flicks his wrists and delivers a rocket spiral to the sideline for a first down.

For arguments sake we have to point out the negatives. The throws at 1:29 and 5:04 flash inaccuracy and the passes at 1:40 and 8:30 are bad decisions, the second of which should’ve ended in a turnover. Some people have complained about the change in his throwing angle in certain situation. Considering it’s usually part of an improvisation to complete a pass rather than a bad habit he’s developed, I think that’s a little harsh. Most of the time his release point is good enough for the next level, it’s his footwork that requires the most work.

We know about the athleticism and ability to move around in the pocket to avoid pressure while keeping his eyes firmly downfield. We see great examples of this at 6:32, 6:40, 7:02 and 10:09. The other well known feature of Griffin’s play is intelligence, which really shines at 8:23 to deal with a difficult snap and throw the ball back to the LOS in order to avoid a big loss and an intentional grounding flag. That’s an under rated play.

But really this game will always be remembered for one play, and one play only. This is Griffin’s highlight, the thing people will always come back to when discussing his time at Baylor. With the game heading to over time at 38-38 and with 17 seconds remaining he creates space by moving to the left and then throws across his body to deliver a pass of such accuracy, incredible touch and unmatched athleticism it deserves to win any game. Fast forward to 10:34 and watch that play a few times, because it’s what will make Griffin a high draft pick next April. I’m still not sure how he finds that receiver at the back of the end zone, especially considering his body position to throw and the decent coverage. Scouts, coaches and GM’s will replay that many times between January and April.

On a side note, how under rated is Kendall Wright? Deep speed, good hands and playmaking qualities that will improve any NFL offense. He’s fourth in college football for receiving yards with 1281 and has ten touchdowns. That’s more yards than Justin Blackmon. I have Wright going to Cleveland in my first mock draft with the 19th overall pick, but he could easily go earlier than that. He could be another Mike Wallace.

Many thanks to JMPasq for supplying us with the tape

First round mock draft: 23rd November

Today I am publishing my first projection for the 2012 NFL draft. Regulars will know how it works – the concept of the mock drafts on Seahawks Draft Blog are to create discussion and look at many different possibilities over the coming months.  The draft isn’t an exact science, unexpected things happen and we’ll be looking at many different scenarios between now and April. You can see the mock draft below, scroll down for further analysis on why I left out certain individuals and why I chose a linebacker for the Seahawks.

Don’t forget to check out Kip Earlywine’s excellent piece from yesterday – it’s a great read and highly recommended. I also compiled a tape review on Matt Barkley vs Oregon this week which you can see by clicking here.

First round mock draft

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
The Colts will need to make a decision on the future of Peyton Manning, but if they keep this pick then Luck will be the choice.
#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
Jeff Otah is on IR for the second successive year. Kalil’s a luxury, but the success of his brother Ryan in Carolina could influence this choice.
#3 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
Steve Jackson’s contract includes a clause that could make him a free agent after this season. Richardson is a much needed elite playmaker.
#4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
With Kalil off the board, Minnesota could look to draft a dynamic receiver. A reach, but perhaps a necessary gamble.
#5 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
Elite potential and pro-ready, Barkley would start immediately for the desperate Redskins.
#6 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
The complete package at receiver and a necessary target if Blaine Gabbert is going to succeed in Jacksonville.
#7 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
Drafting a left tackle should be Arizona’s priority and although this is a reach, Martin is the clear #2 blind side blocker after Kalil.
#8 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
Miami needs a quarterback and they need to inject some life back into the franchise. Griffin III will sell tickets.
#9 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
More of a right tackle prospect than a blind side blocker. Philly needs better line play to compliment their playmakers.
#10 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
Brown has the potential to become a star at the next level. Cleveland is building a talented defense.
#11 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College)
Consistent tackling machine with character to boot. He looks like a Scott Pioli type of player.
#12 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia)
USC transfer with an explosive skill set. He has 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year but need to prove neck injury is behind him.
#13 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
He’s made big improvements this year, but needs to keep improving to become a premier cornerback at the next level.
#14 David De Castro (OG, Stanford)
Tampa Bay need to improve their interior offensive line and the hype around De Castro could push him into this range.
#15 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)
The Bills need a pass rusher. Mercilus needs to play in space at his size, but will need to prove he can adapt to the 3-4.
#16 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
What is his role in the NFL? With limited options at the DE position, Tennessee may take a chance, but he’s probably best in a 3-4.
#17 Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
He’s enjoyed a strong season and put himself in the first round bracket. A lack of pass rush options could push NY in this direction.
#18 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
The Tebow situation is an odd one, but if Denver keeps winning I expect they’ll draft a quarterback in the mid-rounds.
#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
Explosive playmaker with elite speed, the type that Cleveland lacks. Could be as good as DeSean Jackson.
#20 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Tall, physical cornerback who will appeal to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. Specialises in run support, coverage skills need work.
#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
Elite talent with limitless potential who only falls this far due to substantial character concerns.
#22 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State)
Talented linebacker who will bring some attitude back to the Giants’ defense.
#23 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina)
Under rated linebacker, would be a nice compliment to Cincinnati’s defense.
#24 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin)
Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro.
#25 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
The Bears need to add a big, consistent receiver to their offense. Sanu will surprise people with early production.
#26 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia)
I’ve seen Virginia three times in the last two seasons and Aboushi looks like a future pro. Could he rise to this level?
#27 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Perhaps it’s time to start thinking about inside linebackers in Baltimore? Te’o is the best left on the board here.
#28 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
Big nose tackle prospect. Houston switched to the 3-4 this year but could still use Ta’amu’s size up front to anchor their defensive line.
#29 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
He’s made a lot of mistakes off the field, but despite inconsistent quarterback play he’s maintained solid production.
#30 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor)
He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential.
#31 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
Looks every bit a future NFL guard. Perhaps a little under rated and closer to David De Castro than most think.
#32 Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
He’s having a good year, but looks like a five-technique convert to me and that could hamper his stock.

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There’s no Landry Jones?

As I discussed in earlier in the week. I can’t grade Jones in the first round. I also appreciate that I didn’t see Christian Ponder as a first round pick last year and he went 12th overall. There are several teams who need to invest in a young quarterback and others will argue – quite fairly – that someone will likely take the gamble on Jones. I accept that point of view and embrace that it’s a distinct possibility. However, he has a universal grade in the top half of round one that I think is generally undeserved. Is it possible that NFL teams who need a quarterback will also see things like that? Of course.

He’s an unlikely option for the Seahawks given his skill set contradicts the criteria Pete Carroll has settled on for the position (explained in several interviews). Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson and Josh Portis – the three quarterbacks currently on the roster and all signed by this regime – all have plus mobility and the ability to extend plays, something Jones struggles with in a big way. Last April, we understand Seattle’s draft board went #1 Gabbert, #2 Kaepernick, #3 Dalton, #4 Newton. Ryan Mallett, a player who had below average mobility in the pocket, was not included on the team’s board. There’s clear evidence here as to how Seattle is grading quarterbacks and I don’t expect Jones to be the exception.

It’s also important to remember how the league is adapting with a similar thought process. Players without above average arm strength or mobility are dropping (Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Mallett) and players who can move around and extend plays are being graded much higher (Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Tim Tebow). Jones could be the latest example of a player who drops down the board because he’s a pure pocket passer, playing within a system that doesn’t demand any improvisation.

The one team I really considered was Denver. The Broncos fans appear to be turning on John Elway because he’s not so keen on a quarterback he didn’t draft and who can’t throw a football in a passing league. While the Broncos are winning, he’s struggling to compete with fan pressure for Tebow to get his chance. I suspect we could see a situation where Tebow is given the opportunity to fail next year now that it looks like Denver could end up picking in the lower half of round one. That creates a no-lose situation for Elway, who can say he had his chance if he fails, but if Tebow keeps winning (somehow) the Broncos will be successful anyway. They recently sent a large contingent to watch Nick Foles lay an egg against Colorado, so they could be considering options beyond round one.

I do believe there’s a chance Jones suffers a draft day fall and he may even have second thoughts about declaring if he gets a negative review from the draft committee. This year hasn’t gone according to plan for Oklahoma, and there could be a feeling of ‘unfinished business’ for Landry Jones especially if he’s only considered the 4th or 5th best quarterback prospect.

Other big names not making the cut: Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina), Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)

Seahawks take a linebacker?

I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, but clearly there’s an opening for Seattle if they wish to move up. Carolina, St. Louis and Minnesota are no threat for Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin III. Trading up 7-8 places in the draft wouldn’t cost the earth and is a logical move for a team that simply must find a long term solution at quarterback. I’m sure we’ll discuss possible trades many times between now and April, but with none allowed in this mock let’s talk about the pick instead.

Jarvis Jones is a player I’ve kept quiet about for a few weeks now with this mock draft in mind. I wanted to create a talking point in my first mock draft, anticipating that the Seahawks might not be picking within the top five to get that quarterback. The first time I saw Jones play was against Boise State, where he showed flashes of quality as an under size edge rusher. Yet it was a four-sack performance against Florida that really sparked my interest. Since then he’s gone on to record 12.5 sacks for Georgia playing in the role vacated by Justin Houston (a third round pick last year). Only Illinois’ Whitney Mercilus (13.5 sacks) has more.

Despite playing predominantly as part of a four man front for the Bulldogs, he isn’t a LEO candidate. He’s playing at around 6-3 / 240lbs and clearly that’s going to be an issue at the next level if you’re asking him to play defensive end. In Seattle’s scheme he’d work as the WILL linebacker – the role currently taken by Leroy Hill. This would afford you the opportunity to use Jones a lot as a pass rusher because he’s not getting caught fighting tight ends and he’s got the athleticism to sit in coverage and not be a liability. On third down passing plays you can move him up to the LOS and let him rush the passer. Essentially, he could be the player Carroll was hoping Aaron Curry could develop into. When you watch the way Jones moves, his quick burst and ability to explode there’s every chance he could be a 7-10 sack player at the next level.

The Seahawks defense needs more of a pass rush threat, but they’re not going to find an elite defensive end who can fit into this scheme in round one. There’s no stud three-technique as we’ve seen in previous years, a position the Seahawks would surely love to fill. Adding a linebacker like Jones could be the answer to creating more pressure and finding another big time playmaker for this defense. You simply can’t argue with 12.5 sacks in your first year in the SEC.

There are two other things worth mentioning. Firstly, Jones was recruited by Pete Carroll at USC and he spent a year with the Trojans before suffering a serious neck injury. The doctors in SoCal wouldn’t clear him once he’d recovered, so he transferred to Georgia. He had to sit out a year in Athens because of that, offering further time for the injury to heal. Will there be any lasting problems due to that injury? And did Carroll see enough potential in that one year to consider working together again in the NFL?

Secondly, this week Jones reiterated his desire to stay at Georgia for at least another year. He’s only a redshirt sophomore, but he’s starting to get a lot of attention due to his production. He was interviewed immediately after a big win over Kentucky which secured a place in the SEC Championship game. With advice and careful consideration, he may well declare (he wouldn’t be the first to change his mind). However, I feel the need to point out that Jones is saying he won’t enter the draft.

Matt Barkley vs Oregon tape review

Matt Barkley’s performances have been consistently good all season, but it’s only after beating Oregon that he appears to be getting the praise he deserves. I wrote a piece during the summer that questioned whether Barkley – rather than Andrew Luck – would be the most talented player eligible for the 2012 draft. When you watch the Oregon tape, you look at the Stanford game and observe Barkley’s performance in defeating Notre Dame, that’s far from a ridiculous suggestion.

Luck is a tremendous player who will deservedly go first overall next April. The hype surrounding his potential, however, is not deserved. Revisionist history will tell you he’s the most highly regarded quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. In reality, Luck has avoided a lot of the criticism’s and questions Manning faced. It’s assumed that Luck will succeed in any environment, that he’s the perfect prospect. That simply isn’t the case and it’s something we’ll look into over the next week. Barkley has a similar level of potential but has received a greater critique on his physical limitations. I feel like we’re looking at two comparable talents – but Barkley deserves a little more credit than he’s getting and the Luck hype machine maybe needs to take a step back.

A play in the Oregon game stood out as one of the best I’ve ever seen from a college quarterback (fast forward to the 2:01 mark in the video above). Barkley takes a snap under center and then a five-step drop. He pumps to the left and then comes back to the right before dropping in a perfectly weighted pass that dissects two defenders for a big first down completion. Look at the footwork, always moving. Look at the field awareness and poise in the pocket. Look at the perfect touch and accuracy on the pass – it couldn’t be any better. And notice that he does it under pressure – Barkley takes a big hit just as he releases the football. That is an elite play, there are franchise quarterbacks in the NFL who can’t make plays like that.

NFL teams value the back-shoulder throw in a big way these days and Barkley’s pass at 3:40 is a perfect example. Great pump to the right, then quickly floats the ball just behind the receiver and two defensive backs. I think this is an instinct throw more than a specific call – he senses the position of the two defensive backs and puts the pass just short of the group to allow Marqise Lee to adjust and make the completion.

One of the big knocks on Barkley is a lack of pure athleticism, but we see in this video that it’s completely overblown. The offenses in Seattle and Washington require the quarterback to run a lot of boot legs and play action and right off the bat against Oregon we see a quarterback moving out of the pocket, choosing his target and firing to the left sideline. We see further evidence of plus-mobility and the ability to throw accurately on the run at 2:41, 7:39 and also on the third touchdown at 4:02 and fourth score at 6:26. He runs a bootleg at 4:49 for a first down, so we’re talking about a pocket passer with plus mobility which is fine – how else would you describe Aaron Rodgers? Barkley doesn’t need to be Michael Vick.

Look closely at the way he switches between reads because this is something that Luck and Barkley flash on a weekly basis and separates them from others like Landry Jones. At 0:07 he doesn’t like his first option to the right and checks down inside for a short gain but keeps the ball moving. He’s reading the defense pre-snap and diagnosing the play as it develops.

The play at 1:34 is what really excites me about Barkley’s ability to play quickly in the NFL. Essentially, it’s what he’ll be doing every Sunday – seven step drop while reading the field, eyes downfield and to the right to create space underneath for the slot receiver who gets the first down. Barkley shows in this play that on a technical level, that ability to work within a pro-system is already there. Watch the all-22 tape on the replay and you’ll see his head turn from the right to the left before going underneath.

Barkley doesn’t have a great deep ball – his arm strength isn’t at a high level on downfield passes. His placement is generally good in terms of putting air on the ball and putting it in an area for the receiver to make a catch. However, when he’s asked to throw beyond 40-yards the ball’s sometimes under thrown because he hasn’t got the elite arm strength. On Marqise Lee’s opening touchdown at 0:55, Barkley’s going downfield all the way. He locks on to the receiver, waits for him to get separation and throws. A pass towards the end zone and it’s a much easier touchdown completion, the under thrown ball asks more of Lee who manages to adjust and make a play.

He does have a mechanical issue – he transfers his weight to the back foot throwing downfield and loses velocity because of it. At the same time, he probably leans back in order to get air on the ball. Several quarterbacks don’t have the elite arm and make downfield completions by exploiting single coverage and putting the ball in an area for the receiver to make a play. Barkley has shown consistently that he’s capable of that – and while the pass was under thrown it was as high percentage as a downfield pass can be. He isn’t going to be competing in an offense where he’s required to throw 5-6 deep passes per-game to a Mike Wallace type receiver, and I’m satisfied that he will make deep completions at the next level working within a ball-control offense like we see at USC.

The pass at 5:14 highlights a similar problem where a stronger pass could lead to an easy touchdown. However, the accuracy and placement on that ball makes the most of what arm strength Barkley does have and puts the ball into an area for the receiver to make a play. He finds way to be effective downfield, even if he’s more Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer throwing the deep ball than Jay Cutler or Matt Stafford.

The outside slant at 1:55 is a staple play that Landry Jones uses at Oklahoma, Barkley shows here that he’s capable of executing that pass with the same level of zip and arm strength. He throws a very good fade, as evidenced in the Robert Woods touchdown 2:20. He’s usually aware of the situation as it develops- he senses at 6:05 he needs to throw low to avoid any chance of a turnover and make a smart completion on a small field. The completion sets up the fourth touchdown on a similar play.

For a player who makes great decisions most of the time, there were also two poor ones here. The first comes on a fumbled snap in the red zone at 4:15, collects the ball and then tries to force a pass down the middle and should’ve been intercepted. He needs to appreciate the situation – fall on the ball, take the third down and try again. It’s not worth turning the ball over there trying to force a play. The second error leads to the interception. Barkley argued that Robert Woods was held – he was – and that’s what led to the turnover. No flag is thrown, but why throw the ball to Woods in that situation? He needs to recognise there that even if there is a foul, the receiver is in no position to make a play. It was careless and avoidable, even if it should’ve been a penalty.

The pass at 8:31 is a further example of a beautifully weighted pass down the middle for a first down.

People talk about the high volume of screen passes and short completions in the USC offense, but that’s football not just in college football but increasingly in the NFL too. Barkley is going to be tasked with managing a ball-control offense that will include a lot of short stuff and high percentage passes. What separates him from a player like Jimmy Clausen who relied a lot on high percentage completions is the evidence we see every week of making several plays that demand more from the quarterback. He’s making difficult pro-throws regularly, he’s throwing on an intermediate level and beyond. Neither Luck or Barkley are running a Robert Griffin III/Baylor style downfield offense and that won’t be the case at the next level either.

On the technical front, Barkley plays on a different level to the vast majority of college quarterbacks. His ability to operate in something akin to a pro-style offense, execute and look as polished as this is beyond impressive. Let’s not forget that this is an Oregon team that made Andrew Luck appear very ordinary last week – and Barkley didn’t have the benefit of a home-field advantage. There’s no doubt in my mind that Barkley could be the top prospect eligible for 2012, that he can have a quick impact in the NFL and enjoy a prosperous career in the pro’s. Will he declare? Arguments can be made on both sides of the debate, but there’s no doubt at all – he’s ready for the NFL.

Thanks to JMPasq for supplying us with the tape

Landry Jones is not a first round quarterback

Landry Jones doesn't look like a NFL quarterback success story

Before I begin this piece, I want to raise attention to the updated draft order following week 11 of the NFL season. According to NE Patriots Draft, Seattle actually improved it’s position from 11th to 10th overall despite recording back-to-back victories with a win over St. Louis. Miami – one of the favorites to pick first overall just a few weeks ago – are now up to #8 after three successive victories. After Indianapolis there are three teams who almost certainly won’t be drafting a quarterback next April (Carolina, Minnesota and St. Louis). That’s a dangerous situation for Washington at #5, who if it ended like this would be sweating about teams possibly trading above them. I’ll be publishing my first mock draft of the season later this week.  

On Saturday Robert Griffin III met Landry Jones in the Oklahoma vs Baylor shoot-out. It ended in a 45-38 victory for Griffin and the Bears. I’ll discuss Griffin’s performance in a future piece (I believe Griffin tape and also Barkley vs Oregon is forthcoming) but today I want to talk about Jones because I’m at a stage where I feel like I don’t need to see any more tape to determine he’s not a first-round talent.  

Oklahoma’s first drive of this game perfectly sums up Jones as a prospect. On his second attempt, Jones takes a play action in the gun before a pre-meditated throw to a receiver running a short in-route. Jones doesn’t make a read after the snap and forces a dangerous throw straight at a covering defensive end. The pass is tipped up into the air and is almost intercepted. He needs to recognise that pass just isn’t on and progress to another option – he’s too handcuffed to the play call and it almost resulted in a turnover. If I’m drafting a quarterback in round one, he needs to have even a basic ability to get out of a call when it breaks down. Watch Matt Barkley and study how well he makes a pre-snap and post-snap read, continuously diagnosing the defense as the play develops around him. Barkley shows time and time again a natural ability to work on the move and still make good decisions. Watch his performance in dismantlin Oregon at the weekend and then watch Jones forcing blind passes, making zero reads and just throwing the ball to the receiver he’s told to throw to. You’ll be watching a player primed to make a quick impact on the NFL and a player who’s not even close to that level of technical ability.  

Jones’ first possession ends with a 3rd and 28 throw into double coverage which is again tipped up into the air and the interception is dropped by a Baylor defensive back. Jones locks onto his receiver early and should know better than to try and force that pass. In this situation, Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley would be checking down through their progressions but Jones is keyed into the play call. It was incredibly fortunate not to be picked off and he can’t afford to make such a dangerous pass with two corner’s draped all over his intended target. The all-22 tape showed a check down to the running back was an option, but Jones never strays from the call.  

Here’s another example – in the second half he takes a snap, rotates his body to the right and without looking just throws it straight into a jumping defensive black who blitzed the right edge. Jones doesn’t even recognise he’s there – he just throws at maximum velocity straight at the guy. There’s no pre-snap read here to detect the corner who had blatantly moved to the LOS ready to blitz the edge. It’s just snap, turn, throw without any read during the play. The ball hits the DB and goes spiralling up into the air and for the third time is fortunate not to turn into an interception. Blind throws are difficult to watch in college football and a major concern when you see it consistently. Jones is a prime culprit.  

I appreciate that scheme is king in Oklahoma and it requires a fast tempo, quick hitting passing game. However, how can you sufficiently judge that Landry Jones can handle a completely different offense at the next level where he’ll be challenged in so many different ways? He’s not alone in that sense – many college quarterbacks work in systems that don’t translate to the pro’s. Yet Jones doesn’t compensate with an ideal skill set physically – his arm is good some of the time (above average touch on deep fade, nice velocity on intermediate slant and occassionally the short post) but it’s not exactly a cannon either. He’s not a mobile player who can extend plays with his footwork. He doesn’t show any kind of improvisation when plays break down. His decision making is frequently poor in college because he’s tied to the play calls, so do you trust him to make good decisions when the shackles are released?  

When he gets protection and the time to let things unfold, he can be precise. He’ll hit the slants, in-route’s, quick screens and such. That’s great, but in the NFL he’s going to be disrupted, he’s going to have much more pressure and he’s going to need to drive the deep ball with accuracy. I suspect defenses will let him hang himself to a degree – he’ll be really susceptible to safety blitzes and interior pressure. Give him a lot of different looks and get into his head. He’ll show consistent traits on tape so I’d project he’ll be an easy quarterback to figure out. Even when he has good protection and he’s at his most successful, he’s not a surgeon by any means. Saturday’s single interception came with perfect pass protection, he simply missed his receiver (high, wide throw) and allowed the defensive back to make a play. The decision was pretty awful too – he had three Baylor defenders surrounding one receiver and although he managed to get the ball over two of the players, the third made the pick. Again, he needs to diagnose that the pass just isn’t on in that situation and checkdown.  

His lack of poise under pressure is a strong concern. Referring back to the first drive, he takes the snap in the gun but a linebacker goes unblocked straight through the middle of the offensive line. The play is effectively over as soon as Jones notices the blitzing linebacker and just throws it away. To some extent he played it safe, but a one man blitz was enough to impact the quarterback to bail. There’s no pre-snap adjustment. There’s no attempt to extend the play or improvise – at the moment the linebacker penetrates the line Jones knows he isn’t going to have the time to execute to his hot read. His tight end had run an in-route and had space to the left – he could’ve been thrown open with a quick pass. Whenever this offense is knocked out of sync, Jones isn’t capable of making things happen.  

It’s not just the way he struggles against pressure throwing, he’s immobile and cannot extend plays. Nicolas Jean-Baptiste had two sacks from the interior where Jones was basically a standing target. This wasn’t a case of an explosive burst off the snap reaching the quarterback before he can react, these were two slow developing routes and Jean-Baptiste had enough time to disengage and break into the backfield. Jones barely moved in both instances. He may not run a time quite as slow as Ryan Mallett managed last year at the Arkansas pro-day, but even Mallett was superior in his ability to extend plays with pocket smarts and footwork. On the rare occasions where he avoids pressure, it impacts his decision making too much. You can tell Jones is thinking ‘I’ve got to get rid of this’ even when he manages to avoid an outside rush and will throw to the first receiver he sees. He struggles to re-set his feet and drive through the ball, and had another pass tipped in this situation just before the end of the first quarter.  

Jones’ pro’s (Good height, fairly quick release, precise in the pocket when protected, decent arm) are outweighed by the negatives (too many blind throws, lack of mobility, struggles to deal with pressure, no evidence of pre or post-snap reads, poor decision making, no threat in space, slight three-quarter release).  

I used to think Jones would be an unwise first round pick – that somebody would take the chance on his college production. Now, I’m starting to have my doubts. He’s always been a mid-round level player in my eyes, yet I believed he’d still find a home in round one. I have to think he’ll struggle to maintain a first round grade on most boards, despite continued high grades by the mainstream media. He needs to land on a team that runs a timing offense that can afford to keep him on the bench while he develops his play to something akin to a pro-standard. That team isn’t Miami, Washington or Seattle.  

The best case situation would be to land in New England or Kansas City as a back-up – but New England has already taken on project-Mallett and Kansas City appear to be keeping their faith in Matt Cassell for the long haul. Does his current injury situation impact that? Who knows, but KC has the kind of offense that Jones needs to be part of. Arizona already made one mistake trading for Kevin Kolb, but if rumors of an ‘out-clause’ for the Cardinals are true, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see Jones land in the NFC West. Even so, it appears unlikely that Arizona would depart from their investment in Kolb so soon and without even a full off-season.  

This piece reads mostly negative because I’ve intentionally highlighted flaws in Jones’ game that are not being covered in most other places. We’re not talking about a completely hopeless cause here, but then Jimmy Clausen was considered worth the risk in 2010. In hindsight, Clausen would probably command no more than a late round flier now rather than a second round investment. Established scouts were projecting Clausen as a top-10 pick the day of the 2010 draft and for a long time he was considered the likely #1 overall pick. Highlighting issues within Clausen’s game and how they translate to the next level somewhat explain why he’s struggled to make an impact. I suspect the same for Jones and while he’s physically superior to Clausen, they also share several limitations and could end up having similar careers.  

For me, Jones will probably end up competing with Ryan Tannehill to be top of the second group of quarterbacks after Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III. His floor is probably round two based purely on reputation and the stigma of a big-name quarterback remaining on the board. However, like Clausen he could easily go in the second round and prove ineffective at the next level.

Matt Barkley proves doubters wrong, is elite

I’ll compile my notes on Matt Barkley vs Oregon when the tape is ready to be published. In the meantime I wanted to make some notes on his performance overall, because he made a real statement on Saturday.

After months of hype for Andrew Luck, for one evening people were talking about someone else for a change. This year Barkley has continued to progress technically, improve his numbers and lead USC to key victories along the way. Despite that, there’s been a surprisingly negative undercurrent to Barkley’s draft stock. Now, it’s impossible to deny we’re looking at a top end quarterback prospect.

Yes, he has the luxury of playing with two of the finest young receiver’s in college football. No, USC wouldn’t have beaten Oregon without Matt Barkley.

We’ve often talked about what Barkley does well – his high command of the offense, his decision making and ability to make those decisions quickly while reading a defense. There was one throw on Saturday where Barkley looked to the left, pumped, came back to the middle of the field and after some neat footwork just lifted the ball over one defensive back into an impossible window ahead of a cornerback. All the while he had pressure in his face and was actually knocked to the ground just after releasing the ball. The touch, the accuracy, the decision making was at an elite level, it was one of the finest passes you’ll see this season. Let’s not forget, this is a defense Andrew Luck really struggled to cope with last week – and he had the benefit of home field advantage. 

We also know Barkley’s restrictions by now. Nobody would ever argue he’s a physically brilliant quarterback because that’s not his game. He compensates for not having blazing speed, great height or an arm for the ages by being incredibly polished in every other area of his game. His footwork and instinct makes up for a lack of pure speed, making him surprisingly elusive and capable to get the occassional first down on the ground. More importantly though, it allows him to extend plays in the pocket. One of the big problems with Landry Jones is his poor footwork facing pressure off a simple drop or snap in the gun – too often he panics. Barkley’s ability to move away from pressure with a minimal number of steps is as good as I’ve seen from a quarterback this year.

He hasn’t got an amazing deep ball – a lot of the time it’s slightly under thrown and certainly he’s not driving 60-yard bombs in-behind a defensive back for breakaway gains. However, his decision making and precision is again crucial here. I’m convinced I’ve not seen Barkley throw a deep ball into double coverage this season. He plays the percentages and if he needs to look off the safety with a quick pump or misdirection with his eyes – he’ll do it to create the one-on-one match-up he wants. When you’re throwing to a receiver as talented as Marqise Lee, you can afford to get it up there and let him make a play. At the next level he’s going to face greater problems against superior defensive schemes and secondary talent. However, he wouldn’t be the first quarterback to find ways to cope and let the smarts overcome the physical weaknesses. I’ve compared his potential to that of Matt Ryan early in his career – not because they have a lot of similarities in appearance or even technique – but in terms of being able to control an offense and make a lot out of what offensive talent he has. I think in that sense it’s a fair match.

Are there a lot of screens and high percentage passes in the USC offense? Yes, but that’s part of the gameplan. Being able to check down when necessary is part of the game of football, being able to take easy yards is also part of football. As long as you see evidence of a player getting out of that comfort zone and throwing low percentage passes and consistently executing, that’s all you need. Barkley has easily achieved that this year.

It wasn’t all perfect – Barkley made one awful decision trying to force a pass after a bad snap just after half time that probably should’ve been intercepted. The pick he did have was also avoidable – Barkley argued (fairly) that Robert Woods was being held and the flag should’ve been thrown. However, having detected the obstruction, why make the throw to a receiver in no position to make the play?

It’s impossible to define how this performance impacts his decision on whether to declare or not. On the one hand, Barkley has seen the potential in this team and with sanctions lifted next year – could USC be primed for a tilt at the PAC-12 title (or more)? There are also opposing arguments which could persuade Barkley to declare – for example, he could lose his top-end left tackle to the NFL in Matt Kalil. Wins over Notre Dame, Washington and now Oregon would allow him to depart with some level of achievement and his stock is higher now than it possibly ever will be. Returning comes with an injury and performance risk that could severely impact his stock. Perhaps the most important factor in favor of him moving on is simply that Barkley is ready for the pro’s. He’s ready to line-up in a NFL offense and having started three years in SoCal, he’s ready for the next chapter in his career. That doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily take it.

We’ll have a similar debate about Robert Griffin III when I get into the Oklahoma/Baylor tape. Griffin stood out again for his overall performance – including a last minute drive to get the go-ahead score on a brilliant pass across his body to the back of the end zone. Baylor will lose several key players next year and there’s not really much else for them to achieve, especially if they win a Bowl game. Griffin has considered law school, but that was before this season. More than ever it’s looking likely that he’ll declare and he’s seperating himself as the obvious #3 ranked quarterback in this group behind Luck and Barkley.

This week I will be publishing my first mock draft of the new season. Both Barkley and Griffin III will be included.

Thoughts on Barkley, Griffin III and Jones to come

I had tape access of USC’s win at Oregon and Baylor’s game with Oklahoma. Both games went down to the wire and featured highly ranked quarterback prospects eligible for the 2012 draft (Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III and Landry Jones). I’ll be compiling a piece on the three quarterbacks tomorrow, but for now we’ll use this as an open thread for people to debate both games. We’re also hoping to have game tape on Barkley. Stay tuned.

The Seahawks are better off winning

Guest blog post written by Andy Heiting-Doane

Some Seahawks fans think the team is better off losing than winning this season. I understand the viewpoint. There are many examples of NFL teams going from average to perennial contenders by picking a quarterback in the top five.  It appears that Peyton Manning alone is the difference between the Colts being one of the best teams in the league and being easily the worst.  Colts fans probably say to themselves daily, “Thank goodness we lost all those games in 1997 and got to draft Manning.”

I am here to tell you that is not what you should hope for with this team. I asked Rob if I could post an “always hope the Seahawks win” guest post and he graciously agreed.
 
It is not fair for me to suggest this blog and Rob are “hoping” the Seahawks lose.  My intention is to be a counter-point to the viewpoint below, taken from Rob’s article ‘the win/lose debate – Pete Carroll joins in’.
 
“So what is really best for the Seahawks? Aim for another 7-9 record by finishing strongly, pick in the mid-teens and risk spending another year scraping around at the greatest position of need? … Or is it actually best that this team loses out, picks above Miami, Washington, Cleveland, Denver and any other potential rival?”
 
My point is that yes, we should aim for another 7-9 record, or even 8-8, by finishing strongly. My hope is to convince you that this team will be better, long-term, if this season ends with the Seahawks 8-8 than if the final record is 3-13.
 
I want to assume a few things before we get started, just to make sure we’re all having the same conversation.
 
Assumption #1: No one wants the team to actually try to lose. Players would never make bad plays intentionally, defying a head coach who is trying to win. At some level most or all of the players are playing for their contracts and surely no one wants the coach to intentionally lose games? He would lose the team permanently. No one, from owner of the team to the long snapper, would respect him. We would be looking at yet another new regime and another complete overhaul of the roster. If you agree that they should not try to loseand you still think the Seahawks are better off losing, what you’re saying is that you think the Seahawks are better off being a team that legitimately earns a 3-13 record. A team whose current talent level is enough to lose four games for every one game it wins.
 
Assumption 2: No one wants this team to pick in the top five every year.  One might argue that the only way to build a truly exceptional, dynasty-forming roster is to have top five draft picks at quarterback, defensive end, cornerback, left tackle, and wide receiver. But to get there you would have to endure losing season after losing season, free agents would walk away from the team, and you would once again probably be looking at a new regime and another complete overhaul. Also, as I will argue below, it would be impossible to have truly elite players and continue to lose enough games to pick in the top five year after year. If you agree with Assumption #2, you’re saying the Seahawks will hopefully take one more dip  into the top five picks and then start winning and become a contender, thereby picking in later rounds into the future.
 
If you agree with those assumptions then this comes down to a little football math. You want to take our current roster, add a quarterback, and end up with a contender.  Which of these two formulas do you think is more likely to result in a contender over the next five years?
 
Formula #1
[Elite prospect QB taken in the top 5] + [a current Seahawks roster that just earned a 3-13 record] = Super Bowl Contender
 
Formula #2
[Sub-elite prospect QB taken in top 20] + [a current Seahawks roster that just earned an 8-8 record] = Super Bowl Contender
 
I argue in this post that Formula #2 is the best and fastest way to become a Super Bowl contender.
 
Alternatively, if you really want one of those top five picks, I would rather have to trade up for it than stink badly enough to actually earn it. I think having players on the team this year that will earn you more wins is more valuable than whatever pick you have to give up to move up.  So the alternate math is:
 
Formula #3
[Elite prospect QB taken in the top 5] + [a current Seahawks roster that just earned an 8-8 record] – [next year’s first-round draft pick] = Super Bowl Contender
 
It’s all about the rest of the team. It’s all about the eleven starters on defense and the ten starters on offense who are not named Tarvaris. I think this team has several very good young players on defense – Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and “young enough” Brandon Mebane, Brandon Browner, Red Bryant, and Chris Clemons. Very good young players on defense win more than three games in a year, even if the quarterback sucks.
 
I think this team has several very good young players on offense – Doug Baldwin, Russell Okung, and “young enough” Mike Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Zach Miller, and Sidney Rice. Very good young players on offense win more than three games in a year, even if the quarterback sucks.
 
Drum-roll…
 
So, if we only win three games this year, those players aren’t good. We can’t choose to play the Packers, Steelers, and 49ers twice each. The remaining schedule includes two games against the Rams and one each against the Redskins and the Cardinals.  Losing all four of those games means that this team sucks. There is no other way around it.
 
This week, radio host Mike Salk has been repeating the question as whether we, the fans, would like the Seahawks to “play well, but lose.” You cannot play well but lose twice to the Rams. You cannot play well and lose to the Redskins and Cardinals.
 
Think about the Cleveland game. That’s a game that should have been won, but was lost. How did Kam Chancellor look in that game? Terrible. Do you want Kam Chancellor to look terrible in seven more games? If Kam Chancellor looks terrible in seven more games, are you still hopeful that he’ll develop into a Pro-Bowl level player? If our young defensive backs can’t stop the Rams’ pathetic receivers, in each of the two games, they are not good players. If our defense can’t stop the uniformly awful Redskins offense, it is not a good defense.
 
It’s not fair to look at only one player in one game (hey, Red Bryant looked great against Cleveland). This is a whole team.  It is not possible for Chancellor, Thomas, Sherman, Mebane, Browner, Bryant, Clemons, Baldwin, Okung, Williams, Lynch, Miller, and Rice to play well, or even half of them to play well, and lose those four games. In fact, if most of them have pretty good games, I submit to you they will win at least one of the three other games – Philly and San  Francisco at home and the Bears in Chicago. Good players win games. Good defensive backs can win games even with a crappy quarterback. Good offensive line play can win games even with a crappy quarterback. Run-stopping defensive linemen can win games even with a crappy quarterback. If we don’t win games, the other players on the team are not good.
 
So which would you rather have: a top five quarterback added to a roster that stinks, or a top twenty quarterback added to a roster that is mostly good? Matt Barkley plus the team that lost to the Rams twice in a year, or Robert Griffin III plus the team that beat the Rams twice in a year?
 
Take a look at the last several #1 overall picks (all quarterbacks).  Bradford, Stafford, and Cam Newton did not make their teams into contenders alone. The Rams and Panthers both suck this season. The Lions look pretty good, but I see a lot of players contributing to that, not just Stafford. Remember, nobody wants to be the Lions with losing season after losing season adding up to repeated top ten picks. It’s all about being one player away from a being a twelve win team. A 3-13 team is not one player away from winning 12 games. An 8-8 team might be one player away from winning twelve games.
 
Take a look at the 2008 Jets. They finished 9-7 and “missed out” on the opportunity to draft in the top 5 and pick Mark Sanchez with their own pick. They traded up to get the pick that they could have gotten for free by losing 12-13 games. With their #5 pick, they got a quarterback prospect who was inferior to the #1 overall pick, Matthew Stafford, yet the Jets went to the AFC championship the next two years. Why?  Because Mark Sanchez was good enough and because the rest of the roster was very good. The rest of the roster that helped them finish 9-7 and ruin their draft position. What if the Jets had picked in the teens and taken Josh Freeman? Anyone want to argue that they would have been worse?
 
Picking outside the top five this year is going to mean you can’t take Andrew Luck and it will probably mean you can’t take Matt Barkley without giving up some other draft picks. Yet picking outside the top five this year means you’ve got a good roster. You’ve got players who can earn wins even without a franchise quarterback. What is that roster going to look like when you do add a franchise quarterback? Even if it’s not Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley, that roster is going to look great.
 
Before they ever put on an NFL helmet, it’s easy to say that the “elite” or top-tier quarterback prospects are superior to the second-tier prospects and that getting one of the top guys will be the difference between Super Bowl and bust. In history, the difference is not that clear. Stafford has been better than Freeman, but not far better. Matt Ryan has been better than Joe Flacco, but not far better. Brady Quinn was equal to or better than JaMarcus Russell. Jay Cutler has been far better than Matt Leinart. Aaron Rodgers has been far better than Alex Smith. I think an argument could be made that Roethlisberger is as good as Philip Rivers and I would take either of them over Eli Manning.
 
I know, going further back shows you some counter-examples like Carson Palmer/Byron Leftwich and Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf, but in recent years examples of “first quarterback taken in the draft is far better than the others” is outnumbered by examples of “they’re about the same” and “the second or third guy is better.”
 
Looking back at those drafts, wouldn’t you be perfectly happy with Freeman, Flacco, or Cutler (I won’t even ask about Rodgers) if it means that your core of young talent on this team is ready to win? Ready to beat the Rams twice? Ready to beat San Francisco on our own turf? I’ll take my chances in that second tier of prospects in exchange for not becoming the Rams – a great young quarterback surrounded by giant holes at other key positions. I’d rather trade up and lose a draft pick than have Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner get smoked by John Beck or Rex Grossman.
 
I would love to have Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley lead this team for the next fifteen years but I would rather have a second-tier prospect, who might be as good or better than Matt Barkley, surrounded by a complete team with young stars at other positions.

Mock draft preview

Could Morris Claiborne land in Seattle? Can he play quarterback?

I’m in the early stages of writing my first 2012 mock draft and wanted to share a few of the thoughts. When it’s published we’ll have weekly updates and as with previous years we’ll look at different scenarios and possibilities each week.

This is probably the most difficult draft class I’ve had to try and project since starting the blog. There’s a distinct lack of defensive line talent worthy of a high first round grade – a stark contrast to the last few years – and it means having to be creative with the offensive talent in the early first round. Several prospects such as Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon are probably going to end up within the top-ten, when last year that wouldn’t have been the case. There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but I suspect this could be a good year to pick outside the top ten IF you have a quarterback. The difference in talent between the 3rd or 4th pick and the 15th pick could be minimal, making for a comparable situation to the 2009 draft where many of the top ten picks have so far failed to deliver.

I think we could see a rush on quarterbacks similar to last April where four left the board before the 12th pick. This is all, of course, dependant on whether certain players declare for the 2012 draft. Here’s a preview on some of the things I’m contemplating and how they might impact the projection for Seattle…

The Carolina Panthers currently own the second overall pick, which could make for an interesting dilemma. They’ve made the investment in Cam Newton and they actually have one of the better offensive lines among the teams picking early. Would they reach on a receiver to provide Newton with another dynamic target alongside Steve Smith and a decent group of tight ends? The best player on the board at #2 could be Matt Kalil – and of course his brother Ryan has become a key feature at center for the Panthers. Would they invest a high pick to bring the brothers together considering right tackle Jeff Otah has been placed on injured reserve in each of the last two season? It’d be an extreme luxury pick, but without any great defensive line talent available and with some depth at receiver for later on, they may well look to set up the best pair of tackles in the NFL with Jordan Gross.

Miami currently owns the third pick and many people expect they’ll draft a quarterback. With Andrew Luck off the board, it’s hard to work out what kind of quarterback they’d be looking for. I suspect they’ll be changing Head Coach in the off season and who knows what other front office changes could occur? That’ll be the greatest indicator as to what direction they’ll go here. I wouldn’t completely rule out Trent Richardson being the pick. After all, it wouldn’t be a total shocker if the Dolphins looked at the remaining quarterbacks left on the board and decided they couldn’t find the answer they’re looking for. They passed on Matt Ryan when they needed a quarterback in 2008 and took Chad Henne in round two. Would that impact their decision? Could they see Richardson as a can’t miss weapon for a team that has previously been set up to run the ball?

If they are going to focus on the quarterbacks in round one, I keep coming back to Robert Griffin III. Miami want to sell some tickets and whether he’s fools gold or not, RG3 is the closest thing to a big play machine in this group. They’d be foolish to look at Cam Newton and expect similar success, but they may also notice the increased attention in Carolina since Newton’s arrival and buy into the idea (wrongly in my view) that Griffin can match the fast start as a rookie. The concept of Griffin III going that early a few weeks ago may have been considered unlikely, but it’s becoming more and more of a possibility.

Another team likely to be zoned in on the quarterback market is Washington. Mike Shanahan knows what he wants in a quarterback and he’s not going to be forced to take anyone for the sake of it. He traded away the chance to draft Blaine Gabbert last year when many people were talking about the Redskins potentially trading up for Gabbert just a few days before the draft. Shanahan was enamoured by Sam Bradford, suggesting he was a once in a generation type player last season. I long projected Washington to take Jake Locker with the 10th pick and it’s more than coincidence in my mind that they traded down and avoided the quarterbacks completely once Locker left the board.

When I look at the current group I’m not convinced there’s a Shanahan type out there. He may actually show more interest in Ryan Tannehill’s skill set later on, potentially affording further investment in the offensive line or by adding a much needed skill player on offense. I’m not convinced a technical passer like Matt Barkley is what he’s looking for and I expect Landry Jones to be taken lower than most people expect. Although his offense has often produced productive runners with little investment, I just wonder if he’d look at Trent Richardson as a possible consolation prize if the quarterback he wants isn’t available.

I keep coming back to Peyton Manning for Washington. If the Colts are ready to move on with Andrew Luck, they’ll almost certainly release or trade Manning. Dan Snyder loves to make moves like that and there’s some precedent for such a trade. Last year, Donovan McNabb cost the Redskins a second round pick as they looked for a veteran bridge. If Manning is healthy, the ‘Skins have the financial clout and the positional need to make a deal happen. If Shanahan doesn’t see a quarterback he loves in the draft (or if he does prefer a Ryan Tannehill type later on to groom for the future) you have to say Manning to Washington looks ideal for all concerned, it’s almost too realistic. 

There are several no-brainers in the top-ten. Minnesota needs offensive line help to protect their investments at quarterback and running back. Likewise Arizona almost have to draft a left tackle given their hopeless offenive line. St. Louis could look at lineman too – but they really need to find better targets for Sam Bradford and it’s the interior line which should be a greater concern. North Carolina linebacker Zach Brown looks like a great fit for the Eagles who currently own the #9 pick.

Cleveland remains a really intriguing team with their two first round picks. They are probably the only franchise with enough stock to tempt Indianapolis to consider sticking with Peyton Manning and trading the rights to Luck for a kings ransom. Would they be able to pull off an incredible trade like that? If not, do they like a player such as Matt Barkley enough to invest the top-ten pick? Mike Holmgren the coach made a career out of moulding quarterbacks to fit his system. As the man pulling the strings from the front office, can he afford to be so cute at the position? They tried to turn Colt McCoy into a legitimate starter, with very little success. Barkley would make a great deal of sense given the west coast flavor in Cleveland.

That would leave Seattle in a situation where Luck, Griffin III and Barkley are gone. I don’t expect the Seahawks to draft Landry Jones, given that his skill set is very different to what Pete Carroll and John Schneider have looked for at the position so far. They would ultimately have to trade into the top ten should they desire any of the three quarterbacks taken – or they’d have to look elsewhere.

The news this week that John Moffitt and James Carpenter have suffered serious knee injuries was deflating, but perspective is needed. While unfortunate, it certainly shouldn’t be argued that the Seahawks suddenly need to rush out and spend a third first round pick in three years on another lineman. First round picks don’t guarantee good health and the best lines in the league are built on consistency, scheme and talent – not just how many first round picks you have. In many cases the better interior lineman in the NFL are not the best athletes who get drafted in round one, but the guys who understand their jobs and manage to stay healthy.

It may well be that I project the Seahawks drafting a non-quarterback in my first round mock draft, but I still believe they have to do what it takes to move up should that prove to be the case. As I argued this week, picking in the 10-20 range doesn’t mean they can’t draft a first round quarterback – but we have to create a discussion that looks at alternatives however difficult it may be to stomach.

I think there’s a good chance most of the limited defensive talent will be available in this first mock. There is some depth at cornerback, even if there aren’t any players worthy of Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith type grades. LSU standout Morris Claiborne could be available and he fits the bill in what the Seahawks look for at the position. Janoris Jenkins is the most talented cornerback in the class, but off-field concerns make him a risky gamble. Dre Kirkpatrick is a 6-2, aggressive corner who excels in run support but hasn’t looked elite in coverage. Georgia’s Brandon Boykin intrigues me enough to consider a first round grade but is probably too small for the Seahawks scheme. I think this current front office believes they can find cornerbacks who fit without investing the top picks – certainly they’ve backed themselves so far and have enjoyed some success. Cornerbacks could be to Carroll and Schneider what offensive tackles were to Tim Ruskell.

There are some defensive lineman who will go in round one – Clemson’s Brandon Thompson and Penn State’s Devon Still for example. Neither look like the explosive three-technique this defense craves, however. PSU’s Still might actually kick out to the five technique at the next level and if teams like San Diego are willing to try and fit Corey Liuget into that role we could see a similar move. Thompson strikes me as a similar nose tackle 4-3 lineman to Brandon Mebane and while he’s combative enough to impact plays regularly from the backfield, his lack of end product is a concern especially considering some of the outside rushers he’s played with. He’d be a good fit for Denver who have the kind of speed off the edge to capitalise on Thompson’s interior work.

Quinton Coples remains a mystery considering he promised so much coming into the year but hasn’t lived up to expectations. How would he fit into Seattle’s scheme? He’s not big enough or explosive enough to move inside and play the three technique in the NFL – although he had his most impressive season for UNC from the middle. He’s not a LEO pass rusher in any shape or form, but the Seahawks don’t use an orthodox five-technique where he appears to be suited. Getting someone else who can consistently create edge pressure would be a huge bonus for the Seahawks, but I don’t think Coples is that man.

There’s talent and depth at both receiver and running back. While I firmly believe you can never have too many good receivers, I don’t the Seahawks’ vision is to stock pile receivers. People are going to ask about Stanford’s David De Castro, but I think expectations should be tempered there slightly. He’s a pure technician who looks polished in Stanford’s machine of an offense. However, the whole of that line struggled when USC found a way to create pressure and it’s shown the way forward for Oregon State and Oregon in the last two weeks. On a side note, Andrew Luck’s inability to maintain standards under pressure is a concern – something I’ll write about more on another day. De Castro is playing right guard for Stanford and while the hype train will serve him well, I’m not sure he’s quite as good as some people believe. Comparisons to Steve Hutchinson are ambitious to say the least.

Considering I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, I’m leaning towards the cornerback position for now based purely on the players available. I do suspect that if the Seahawks were going to spend a first round pick on defense, they’d much rather make the choice on the defensive line. Even if the team thinks it can keep adding talent to it’s secondary with later picks, they may have limited choice if the quarterbacks are off the board and with limited defensive line talent. The debate makes you realise – if you weren’t already convinced – how much the Seahawks need to be aggressive to get their quarterback if they identify him among the top ten picks.

Lamar Miller could be a high first-round pick

Lamar Miller: Healthy competition for Trent Richardson

Running back’s have quickly become an endangered species at the top of round one. It’s only six years ago that three runners were taken in the first five picks of the 2005 draft (Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams). It’s not a big surprise that times have changed – plenty of teams are finding ways to get serviceable backs later in the draft. Only two of the league’s current top-ten rushing leaders are first round picks (Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson). The very nature of the position encourages a tough work load leading to shorter careers, almost always ended by the time the player hits 30. When you add the extreme cost that accompanies the top few picks, it’s no wonder the NFL moved away from running backs and looked closer at long term investments at quarterback and both the offensive and defensive lines.   

Could that might be about to change?   

The rookie pay scale is going to have a greater impact on the draft than maybe some people think. Let’s look at the difference in salary for the 1st, 5th and 10th picks in 2010 and 2011 – before and after the pay scale arrived.   

#1 overall

Sam Bradford (2010)
6-year contract worth $78m with $50m in guarantees and a maximum value of $86m

Cam Newton (2011)
4-year contract worth a fully guaranteed $22m   

#5 overall

Eric Berry (2010)
6-year contract worth $60m with $34m in guarantees

Patrick Peterson (2011)
4-year contract worth a fully guaranteed $18.5m   

#10 overall

Tyson Alualu (2010)
5-year contract worth $28m with $17.5m in guaranteed

Blaine Gabbert (2011)
4-year contract worth a fully guaranteed $12m   

Players drafted within the top ten are now making as much money as players previously taken in the 15-20 range. Maurkice Pouncey’s rookie contract is worth only $1.65m less in guarantees than Blaine Gabbert’s, despite an eight-pick difference. If you were considering a running back with a top ten pick, in 2010 you would almost certainly be investing around 20-30m in guarantees at a position carrying a severe injury risk. Post-2010, that’s completely changed to a much more affordable number. We may be about to see a u-turn with teams now returning to the position as an early first round option, tapping into the short learning curve at the position for rookies.   

Of course, there will always be teams who take the stance that drafting a running back in round one is a luxury. I suspect the Seahawks could fall into that category, given they passed on Mark Ingram last year (offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell was a big fan) and considering the previous appointment of Alex Gibbs and his philosophy that believes runners can be found without the high-end investment. That’s not to say they too won’t change their mind in this new climate, but Seattle’s priorities will probably continue to lie elsewhere.   

Trent Richardson should go early next April, offering a cornerstone playmaker to a struggling offense. But what about Lamar Miller? Could he too leave the board early?   

There’s a lot to like about the redshirt-sophomore from Miami. For the year he’s on 1108 yards with eleven touchdowns. Miller has ideal size for the NFL (5-11, 211lbs) and the kind of breakaway speed that will intrigue teams early in the first round. Perhaps his best attribute is patience – it’s reminiscent of Shaun Alexander’s days in Alabama. While Miller hasn’t got that same natural, smooth running style and elusiveness that made Alexander a star, the way he let’s the play develop before exploding into a cut is at an elite level. He seeks out running lanes and explodes through the gap, often making angles with a neat cutback or rounding the edge. He’s the kind of running back that makes things happen and won’t rely totally on good line play.   

His ability to change direction quickly without losing speed is also unique. He glides in and out of cuts to avoid tackles and in the open field he can extend runs for big gains that would otherwise just be first downs. The fluidity of his open-field running style is comparable to Jeremy Maclin’s, albeit it in the body of a running back. On short yardage runs he’s got enough size and power to be effective and he’ll keep carries in the red-zone. If there is one concern about his running style, it’s quite upright and he exposes a lot of his body to the tackle. So far he’s avoided injuries, but it’s something to consider – not that it’s hindered other players who run this way.   

Miller is a non-factor in the passing game, which is a slight concern. He only has 24 career receptions and a single touchdown – you’d like to see more considering how often running backs are used split wide and on screens these days. Neither is he a thriving blocker, but on the tape evidence I’ve seen so far he’s at least willing and this is an area that will improve with pro-coaching. These are minor concerns given how rounded he is as a runner and while he may not have the same brutish running style and size as Richardson, he looks faster on tape and has shown the same ability to dodge or break tackles consistently.   

There’s no doubt he’s ready to have an impact on the NFL and he could provide a team with a young offensive core a nice weapon at running back. He may not join Trent Richardson among the first ten picks next April, but he has every opportunity to go in the top-15. That’s the range I expect to project Miller in my first mock draft for 2012, to be published soon.  

   

  

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