Category: Featured (Page 5 of 11)

Drafting first round pass rushers has been more miss than hit over the years. Between 2005-2010, 24 first round picks were spent on 3-4 outside linebackers, orthodox 4-3 ends and specialists. This number doesn’t include interior defensive lineman or five-techniques. Of those 24 players, only seven could be deemed a success: DeMarcus Ware (11th overall, Dallas), Mario Williams (1st overall, Houston), Tamba Hali (20th overall, Kansas City), Chris Long (2nd overall, St. Louis), Brian Orakpo (13th overall, Washington), Clay Matthews (26th overall, Green Bay) and Jason Pierre-Paul (15th overall, New York). 

During those six drafts, a lot of the NFL’s sack production was found outside of the top round. In 2005, Trent Cole was a 5th round pick for Philadelphia and has since recorded 68 sacks for the Eagles. Elvis Dumervil was a steal for the Broncos in 2006 in round four and has 52.5 sacks in five active seasons (he missed 2010 through injury). Lamarr Woodley was taken with the 46th pick in 2007 and has 48 career sacks. The same pick in 2009 brought Connor Barwin to Houston (11.5 sacks for Wade Phillips in 2011) and Carlos Dunlap has so far lived up to some of his potential after dropping to the #54 pick in 2010 with 13.5 sacks for the Bengals. 

It’s not surprising that more players have been busts because that’s the way the draft works. However, a 29% success rate is a bit more surprising given the mass production teams have found in the mid-rounds. I would argue projecting defensive ends to the next level is one of the most difficult things to do. Sometimes you’ll see a guy dominate college lineman but struggle to have the same impact against the NFL’s best. It takes a combination of skills to be a productive pass rusher in the pro’s – in college sometimes it’s just requires speed. But as the Seahawks set about trying to upgrade their pass rush, it could be one of the riskiest picks they make in the Carroll/Schneider regime. 

There’s no rhyme or reason for successful defensive ends. Many expected Brandon Graham to have a big impact after a productive off-season that included a dominating Senior Bowl. So far, he’s been irrelevant for the Eagles – suffering with injuries and failing to make an impact despite Philadelphia’s bold move up the board to draft him. Carolina wasted a future first round pick in 2009 after trading back into the draft to grab Everette Brown. He had the edge speed and performance at Florida State, but was a bust in the NFL and San Francisco remain ever grateful for the first rounder. Derrick Harvey, Vernon Gholston, Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss, Aaron Maybin, Larry English, Robert Ayers, Jerry Hughes – all players expected to have an impact, but became busts. You’re looking for strength, edge speed, a repertoire of moves or at least one move they’ve mastered, technique, leverage and hand use. Essentially, you’re asking for a lot. It still surprises me that a player who ticked all of those boxes – Jabaal Sheard – dropped to round two last April. 

Overall the 2011 group bucked the trend by producing a cluster of impact rookies. Von Miller won defensive rookie of the year for an impressive first season in Denver. Aldon Smith made numerous big plays for the Niners, while Washington’s Ryan Kerrigan also made the Pro-Bowl. JJ Watt and Adrian Clayborn both flashed at times for Houston and Tampa Bay respectively, with only Robert Quinn struggling to make an impression. Of the group, only Quinn relied mostly on speed in college. Perhaps there’s something to learn there? This week I’ve decided to drop Whitney Mercilus into round two for the first time in a while. He’s a player I’m still trying to work out, but could easily become part of either list – first round busts, or players who deserved greater faith after they dropped into day two. Expect further analysis on Mercilus before April 26th. 

The three pass-rushers likely to be on Seattle’s radar are Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples. I suspect Upshaw would be the preferred option, but with all three likely to go in a similar range it could be a decision taken out of their hands. This week I have the Seahawks taking a chance on Coples – a player who divides opinion perhaps more than any other prospect this year. Some are intrigued by his potential and we saw at the Senior Bowl just what he’s capable of – he dominated throughout and was easily the best player on show. Others are suspicious of a senior campaign that was decidedly mediocre. 

Yet faced with a situation where both Upshaw and Ingram are off the board – plus a potential ‘wild card’ alternative like Trent Richardson – they may just roll the dice on adding to the small list of success stories at defensive end. Pete Carroll is a coach who believes he can motivate any player to produce results. This would be one of the greatest challenges of his career – and a lot of other GM’s and coaches are likely to be happy to give him the opportunity to take on this test. Upshaw is a complete football player in my view and while he may not have a ceiling to match other pass rushers, I expect he will have an extremely solid career with multiple 8-12 sack seasons. Ingram I’m less crazy about overall, but he’s also a unique prospect in many ways given his size and athleticism. Coples doesn’t just have the highest ceiling among the defensive players in this class – he also has a much greater floor if things go wrong. 

For the most part I’ve argued against Coples due to the scheme fit – an argument I’ve also made against Upshaw and Ingram too at times. However, it appears the Seahawks might be more willing to adapt their scheme than I first thought. That doesn’t mean completely abandoning their hybrid 4-3 system, but still incorporating new looks and being flexible with Red Bryant (if he re-signs) in order to create more of a pass rush. The Seahawks can’t keep relying on just Chris Clemons for pressure – and without a dominating three-technique, they may be forced to use a more balanced 4-3 front or consider more 3-4 concepts with two outside rushers. 

Coples would be a gamble, Seattle’s biggest risk/reward project in the Carroll/Schneider era. They’ve built a defense that plays with a brooding intensity – a young determined core of players who get under your skin. Coples at his best would add a touch of class to the team’s pass rush and could take the defense to another level. Yet Coples at his worst could undermine everything they’ve built so far. Carroll’s rebuild can’t afford to stall, the margins for error are huge. While this team may one day have to gamble on a quarterback, they could initially gamble on a defensive end. They have to hit on both. 

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Take this to the bank – the Rams have to take Kalil. He’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) If Minnesota would’ve contemplated taking Andrew Luck at #1, why wouldn’t they consider taking RGIII here?

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Elite playmaking talent who will have an instant impact. Cleveland may draft Richardson here even if Griffin’s still on the board.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Assuming the Jaguars attack the market for receivers in free agency, Gene Smith could look for further protection for Blaine Gabbert.

	#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Carolina wants to use a lot of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.

	#9 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Miami needs to improve their pass rush and if they aren’t tempted by Justin Blackmon, Upshaw could be the pick.

	#10 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Bills could be a wildcard and another potential destination for Blackmon. More than anything though, they need a pass rusher.

	#11 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Some teams will be suspicious of Coples, but Seattle has a Head Coach who believes he’s capable of motivating any player.

	#12 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Chiefs could do with boosting their offensive line. They’d have the option to play Martin at left or right tackle.

	#13 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) Expect the Cardinals to pursue Peyton Manning. Whoever starts at quarterback, they’ll need better protection in 2012.

	#14 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Most people expect Dallas to draft for their secondary in round one, but the options aren’t great – unlike Brockers.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, but Zach Brown will start to rise up the boards very soon.

	#16 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This isn’t the first time I’ve had Blackmon falling a bit. New York could move up to make sure they get this guy.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) He could play right tackle or guard in San Diego. The Chargers will surely invest in their offensive line this off-season and could trade up.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.

	#20 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) Kenny Britt’s problems off the field and with injuries could push the Titans towards finding a replacement.

	#21 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety’s with Barron’s range are difficult to find and his 2011 performance warrants top-25 consideration.

	#22 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He provides a lot of positives in run support, but he struggles in coverage. Could drop lower than this.

	#23 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) I think he can play outside linebacker – and while Detroit maybe have bigger needs, this guy can help take the defense to another level.

	#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.

	#25 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Has some limitations and he’s no pass rusher.

	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Texans saw life without Andre Johnson and might add another receiver as insurance.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.

	#28 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) They’ve played for two years now without a running game. Maybe it’s time to go all-in on a running back? Martin is seriously underrated.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and needs a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Cox looks like a pure five-technique to me and would be worth a chance here by the Ravens.

	#31 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) A top-ten talent on the field, but an UDFA off it. New England are willing to take on projects like this (see: Ryan Mallett).

	#32 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

This week’s projection is based on information accumulated over the last two weeks and continued tape observation. This mock best describes how I see things unfolding after the Senior Bowl and building up to the combine. Some of the picks will go against on my own personal grades, but I want to put down a mock I can return to after the combine to see how things have changed as we move closer to April 26th. For that reason, I’ve also included a second round to this week’s projection. 

I want to highlight the decision to have Minnesota take Robert Griffin III with the #3 overall pick. Last year, the Vikings spent a high first rounder on Christian Ponder and many people will disagree strongly with the suggestion they would draft another quarterback in round one this year. 

For starters, I think Minnesota’s situation has changed significantly in the last twelve months. When Brett Favre was quarterback in 2009, the Vikings came within a drive of the Super Bowl. They somehow (desperately) managed to convince an injured Favre to return in 2010 and the result was a bit of a mess. I firmly believe the Vikings thought they had a roster good enough to compete if they could sort out their quarterback situation. They drafted Ponder with the #12 pick last April, then traded for Donovan McNabb to be the bridge. During the 2011 season, Minnesota surely realised they weren’t so close to competing after all. They have an old and bad offensive line, they have no secondary and even the pass rush is looking long in the tooth. They lost Sidney Rice and became too dependant on Percy Harvin. Adrian Peterson was left to carry the offense and he ended the year with a serious knee injury. 

Having been so close to the Super Bowl, two seasons later the Vikings are pretty much back at square one. They need to rebuild. 

Really this situation isn’t too different to the one facing Carolina twelve months ago. Like the Vikings, in the space of two years the Panthers went from NFC challenger to picking very early in round one. When the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen with their first selection in 2010, they had greater expectations for the rest of their roster. When it fell apart to the extent they were the worst team in the NFL, they knew they had to start over. Faced with the chance to draft a building block, Carolina took Cam Newton first overall and Clausen became an after-though. Sure, Ponder was a much higher pick – but the situation is very similar. Two years removed from being legitimate NFC challengers, the Vikings are picking 3rd overall and they have a chance to draft their Cam Newton. 

You could argue it’s the team’s duty to build around Ponder and improve the offensive line, find him another receiver and piece together the defense. But here’s the thing: If Minnesota were picking first overall, would they draft Andrew Luck? Of course they would. Sure, they might see what they can get in a trade along the way – but like pretty much every team in the league they’d draft the big prize available at #1 this year. So if they’re willing to move past Ponder for Luck, would they do the same for Griffin III? 

Think about it – Minnesota needs an icon. Adrian Peterson may never be the same again after his injury, so what does that leave you with? If Christian Ponder reaches his peak, the best he can hope to be is Chad Pennington. Is that really what you want to build around? Instead, you could have Robert Griffin III. Start Ponder for a year or two as the bridge and take your lumps. Build around RGIII and give him the time to learn a pro-style offense. If Ponder develops in that time – superb! You have the makings of a nice trade with another team who needs a quarterback. If not, bring on the RGIII era. 

As the 12th pick last April, Ponder’s salary is just $10.5m on a four year contract. Tarvaris Jackson will earn around $8m for two years work in Seattle. There is no financial restriction here and Minnesota could easily accommodate both quarterbacks on their roster. Would it be different if they could draft a left tackle with elite potential such as Matt Kalil? Perhaps, but it’s almost certain St. Louis will draft the USC prospect if they can’t manufacture a trade with someone moving up for Griffin. Nothing is a guarantee of course, but I’m led to believe there’s a feeling among some sections of the league that Griffin III won’t get out of the top three picks. This maybe justifies why St. Louis are actually being touted as a logical trade partner. 

It wouldn’t be a major stretch if the Vikings’ draft board read: 1) Luck 2) Kalil 3) Griffin III. You don’t often get the chance to draft that early so you need to make those picks count. Are you really going to pass on a special talent at quarterback for Christian Ponder’s sake? If Griffin III is set to be taken in the top three picks, Seahawks fans hoping for a deal can forget about  it. The Rams aren’t going to trade with Seattle and if the Vikings do like RGIII, it’ll cost a kings ransom to move up. It appears defense will be on the agenda for the ‘Hawks at #11 or #12 unless a talented offensive player like Trent Richardson suffers an unlikely fall. 

Updated first round

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) If Minnesota would’ve been prepared to take Andrew Luck at #1, why wouldn’t they consider taking RGIII here?.

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Elite playmaking talent who will have an instant impact. Cleveland may draft Richardson here even if Griffin’s still on the board.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) He’s an enigma, but also a player some teams will love to take a chance on. Expect Jacksonville to sign receivers during free agency.

	#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Carolina want to have lots of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.

	#9 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Green Bay has a lot of talented receivers, Miami has Brandon Marshall. If Joe Philbin goes back for Matt Flynn, he’ll need targets.

	#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Bills would be in a good spot here with both Reiff and Jonathan Martin on the board. Pick your poison.

	#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Upshaw won’t blow up the combine and that could put him in range for the Seahawks.

	#12 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Chiefs could do with boosting their offensive line. They’d have the option to play Martin at left or right tackle.

	#13 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) With two offensive tackles leaving the board quickly, it could force Arizona to go for another need – pass rusher.

	#14 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Most people expect Dallas to draft for their secondary in round one, but the options aren’t great – unlike Brockers.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, but he might have to. Zach Brown will start to rise up the boards very soon.

	#16 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) I’m not a big fan but the Jets need a receiver and Floyd just looks like a Rex Ryan type of pick.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) He was practically unstoppable at the Senior Bowl and teams will be looking at Adams as a potential blind side blocker.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.

	#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation for sacks. A hard player to work out.

	#21 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety’s with Barron’s range are difficult to find and his 2011 performance warrants top-25 consideration.

	#22 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) Having added a running back, they now add possibly the best receiver in the draft class. Quarterback later on or in free agency.

	#23 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) A senior bowl to remember will help promote his stock, but he got better and better as the season went on for Georgia.

	#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.

	#25 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Has some limitations and he’s no pass rusher.

	#26 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Imagine JJ Watt and Fletcher Cox on the same defensive line. If they lose Mario Williams, they need to find a pass-rush replacement.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.

	#28 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Great in run support but not so much in coverage. Green Bay would get value here but Kirkpatrick has a lot to work on.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and need a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) A Ravens type of player if ever you saw one. He’s stout against the run but makes enough plays on the move to go here.

	#31 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

	#32 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) A top-ten talent on the field, but an UDFA off it. New England are willing to take on projects like this (see: Ryan Mallett).

Second round 

#33 St. Louis – Juron Criner (WR, Arizona)
The Rams make use of the depth at receiver this year and find Sam Bradford a new #1 target. 

#34 Indianapolis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
In moving to the 3-4, the Colts need a nose tackle. Ta’amu could go earlier than this. 

#35 Minnesota – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
Without a great offensive lineman or cornerback available here, the Vikings checkdown and go receiver. 

#36 Tampa Bay – Chris Polk (RB, Washington)
He’s not Trent Richardson, but he’s the kind of physical runner the Bucs will look for. 

#37 Cleveland – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
A steal for the Browns who are slowly building a top young defensive line. 

#38 Jacksonville – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
The Jaguars double dip at defensive end and makeover their pass rush having added Quinton Coples earlier. 

#39 Washington – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Getting a big target for their new quarterback would be a wise idea and Jeffery is good value here. 

#40 Carolina – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
Like Jacksonville, Carolina double-up on a big area of need. Thompson + Stills = scary. 

#41 Buffalo – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
The next best pass rusher on the board having added to the offensive line in round one. 

#42 Miami – Cam Johnson (DE, Virginia)
The Dolphins also need to improve their edge rush and take this rising senior with a lot of potential. 

#43 Seattle – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
The Seahawks know their offense is based around the run and they need to make sure they have strong depth at running back. 

#44 Kansas City – Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis)
Nose tackle is a position of great value these days and the Chiefs make sure they get a young one here. 

#45 Dallas – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
Just a great playmaker who I suspect Jerry Jones will rate highly. He gambles, but he’s also exciting. 

#46 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
The Eagles always make sure they’re prepared at quarterback and Osweiler is underrated. 

#47 New York Jets – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
This would be excellent value for a player with lots of pass-rushing ability. 

#48 New England – Joe Adams (WR, Arkansas)
Whoever drafts this guy won’t be sorry. 

#49 San Diego – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
3-4 teams looking for an edge rusher will give McClellin strong consideration in round two. 

#50 Chicago – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
A player who lurches between dominant and irrelevant, but it’s worth trying to keep the lights on. 

#51 Philadelphia – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
Speedy linebacker who’s gaining momentum. Will provide some pass rushing threat. 

#52 Tennessee Mike Martin (DT, Michigan)
The tape says 100% effort guy with a lot of talent and teams will want him on their roster. 

#53 Cincinnati – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
This would possibly be the steal of the draft. 

#54 Detroit – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
He’s raw and lacks technique, but there’s a bit of JPP about his style. 

#55 Atlanta Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
The heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez? 

#56 Pittsburgh – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
He looked good enough in the Senior Bowl to make it into the back-end of round two. 

#57 Denver – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
A running back with a lot of speed but doesn’t always make the best decisions. 

#58 Houston Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
The unsung hero of the ‘Bama defense. He played really well in 2011. 

#59 New Orleans – Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
Huge potential in terms of physical quality and ability to catch the ball. 

#60 Green Bay – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
The Packers are always one step ahead of the curve when it comes to quarterbacks. 

#61 Baltimore – Alfonzo Dennard (DB, Nebraska)
I’ve always had him in this range and don’t buy the first round talk. 

#62 San Francisco – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
The Niners can run a lot of dangerous 2TE sets if they draft this guy. 

#63 New York Giants – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
He can do a back flip. He is 299lbs. 

#64 New England Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
I like Lewis, he’s just not spectacular in any particular way. Just a good all-round skill set. 

Just missed the cut: Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State), Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia), Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame), Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State), Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson), Brandon Washington (G, Miami), Chase Minnifield (CB, Virginia), Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor).

 

Regulars will know the score by now. The idea of these weekly mocks is not to make a firm prediction as to what will happen on April 26th, rather it’s an opportunity to look at possibilities and talk about several different options. A lot of people are going to scratch their head at this week’s pick for Seattle, but I’ll try to explain.

Firstly, I suspect the Seahawks will draft for defense in round one. It appears the only situation I can see where they deviate from this plan is if someone makes a surprising fall or having studied Brock Osweiler since his shock decision to declare, they believe he’s worthy of a top-15 grade. If neither of those situations materialise, then even with a mediocre defensive class I think that’s the direction they’ll go. Pete Carroll has been fairly open about where he needs improvement and the way he highlighted greater speed among the front seven, I think that was a big hint as to what the Seahawks might do in round one.

He also mentioned other areas, such as wanting greater depth at cornerback and a ‘touchdown maker’ on offense if one was available. Even so, adding to the front seven makes a lot of sense given the team’s glaring lack of pass rush during the last two years and the seemingly total reliance on Chris Clemons to create pressure. They need more edge speed at linebacker and players that can cause greater issues on the blitz. They need a dynamic three-technique among the interior. They need at least one more complimentary edge rusher to replace Raheem Brock on third downs and obvious passing situations.

When compiling this latest mock, I considered a number of prospects – some more obvious than others. Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) has the kind of size this front office has looked for at corner and he grades very highly in run support. However, his technique in press coverage is poor and I’ll never forget the way he was abused by Ryan Mallett (understandable) and John Brantley (more concerning) where his weaknesses as a cover corner were exploited. He’s too stiff, he often plays the man rather than the ball and generally I think he’s pretty overrated.

I understand why people want to avoid the cornerback position this early, because the Seahawks uncovered two new starters this year in Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. It’s worth noting, however, the injuries Seattle sustained at the position last year and the likely departure of Marcus Trufant. Browner will be 28-years-old when the 2012 season begins and we saw with Mike Williams how a player can regress slightly after appearing from nowhere. Let’s not forget that according to PFP, Browner gave up the 7th most passing yards in the NFL. Carroll wants competition and the attitude among the secondary is having a huge impact on the defense. Adding another young prospect who can further add to the team’s identity might be high on the agenda, especially if they value Kirkpatrick as high as a lot of other people do.

I also looked at Devon Still (DT, Penn State), Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina), Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) and Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina). Still showed flashes of excellence last year, but I’m not convinced he’s a consistent interior penetrater who can provide the missing piece at three-technique. It may be that he’s valued more by teams looking to move him to the five-tech, although I paired him with Philadelphia (a 4-3 team) in this mock. Brown is definitely an option for the Seahawks, offering pure athleticism at linebacker and an ability to move from sideline-to-sideline making plays. Mercilus remains a bit of a mystery having had the chance to study his UCLA tape this week and I don’t expect the team to draft a LEO specialist in round one this year. Ingram causes a lot of heated debate on this blog, I stil maintain that finding a home for him in this scheme is a dilemma I cannot solve.

So this brought me to a new direction, a player I’ve always been fond of but didn’t expect to get first round consideration due to a lack of size. A significant lack of size.

Sean Spence is 5-11 and 228lbs according to the Senior Bowl numbers posted by Tony Pauline. In truth, he probably played most of his career at Miami closer to 220lbs. He’s basically a strong safety playing at linebacker, but it’s what Spence achieved in spite of his size that intrigues me for Seattle – even in round one. The Seahawks are looking for speed at linebacker, but not the kind of speed that Aaron Curry brings to the table. They want a guy who’s capable of blitzing sharply into the backfield and making a splash play, but they also want someone with the recognition skills, coverage ability and discipline to be more than a reckless heat-seeking missile who makes costly decisions.

There are obvious limitations due to the lack of size and although Spence is generally a sharp tackler in the open field, he’s also had a few missed opportunities because he has such a modest frame. If he was asked to play the SAM I think he’d struggle taking on bigger tight ends in coverage, but the WILL places most emphasis on speed and being able to react to different situations. The way the Seahawks stack up their front line with size (Bryant, Mebane and Branch) may afford for a slightly smaller yet faster linebacker. A further way to compensate could be to build up the size at the MIKE, potentially by signing someone in the mould of Dont’a Hightower to provide that real menacing brutality and run support. He does get engulfed sometimes by bigger lineman, but his speed will be a big factor when blitzing and he’s tougher than the 5-11 frame suggests. He’s one of the best coverage linebackers I’ve scouted.

Russ Lande at the Sporting News gave me the confidence to make this projection when he made Spence a first round pick in his latest mock. He also named him, “The best linebacker to come out of Miami since Ray Lewis.” Here are some of the post-Lewis linebackers to leave Miami and join the NFL: Dan Morgan, Jonathan Vilma, DJ Williams, Rocky McIntosh, Jon Beason and Tavares Gooden. Indeed Vilma has comparable size (two inches taller, but the same weight) and ran a 4.54 at the combine. Spence should top that. I asked Lande for further information given the high praise and he told me he believed Spence was an “elite” linebacker prospect with the ability to play the WILL or even the MIKE in the 4-3.

There’s absolutely no doubt that this would be an unorthodox pick and one that would probably come with widespread criticism from the rest of the league. Yet Seattle’s front office has been anything but conventional so far and to a large extent it’s worked. If they were just looking for big, fast players – Aaron Curry would still be on the roster. Very few people expected James Carpenter to be a first round pick, while the likes of Kris Durham and KJ Wright where considered suprising selections at the time. They’re looking for difference makers, impact players, guys who will buy into the system and lead by example. Quite aside from Spence’s athletic qualities, he’s also been the heartbeat of Miami’s defense for a few years. Reports say he’s a coaches dream off the field – dedicated to his craft, a film room junkie and a student of the game.

As with last week’s projection, there could be an opportunity here to move down the board and add some other picks before making a choice like this. I don’t deal with trades, but it’s worth baring that in mind before you send that venomous email and ask why Quinton ‘I’ll take the next play off’ Coples isn’t the pick instead. If the Seahawks really are looking for speed in the front seven this is a player to keep in mind and don’t underestimate how high he could be taken. At the top of this article, you will find 2010 tape of Spence’s performance vs Clemson. Onto this week’s mock…

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Minnesota need to protect their investment in Christian Ponder. They’d love to have Kalil, but Reiff is a decent compromise.

	#4 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) I’m still not completely convinced by this, but Cleveland does need a dynamic playmaker on offense.

	#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Sure, they have big needs at linebacker and corner. However, Richardson is an elite prospect who will transform an offense.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Corner’s traditionally don’t go in the top-five and Patrick Peterson was the exception last year. Claiborne would be a nice get for the Jags.

	#8 Courtney Upshaw (OLB, Alabama) Miami needs an outside linebacker and Upshaw is doing enough at the Senior Bowl to warrant this kind of projection.

	#9 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) A complete lack of defensive line talent could push a raw youngster like Brockers into this range.

	#10 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Bills need to boost both lines and could consider Justin Blackmon too. However, taking Martin would be a smart move.

	#11 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) I’m not a huge fan based on the tape, but he’s doing as much as anyone to promote his stock in Mobile.

	#12 Sean Spence (OLB, Miami) A titanic reach? Or just what the Seahawks are looking for? More speed in the front seven is the aim and Spence could be the ideal WILL.

	#13 Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) Someone is going to fall in love with this guy’s skill set. Arizona should dump Kevin Kolb and draft Osweiler.

	#14 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite coverage skills, the concern comes with the off-field issues. He needs to prove to team’s he’s matured in the last 12 months.

	#15 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) The Eagles need a linebacker, but Andy Reid hates spending early picks on the position. Still could be an option here.

	#16 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Incredible production in college but has much changed in 12 months when he would’ve likely been a mid-to-late first rounder?

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The best receiver in this class as far as I’m concerned. He could end up being the complete package and a sound replacement for Vincent Jackson.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.

	#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation in 2011 for sacks. A hard player to work out.

	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Over rated corner who’s great in run support but struggles with press coverage. Not as good as advertised.

	#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers. Floyd has his issues, but put him on that offense with RGIII and it’ll be much improved.

	#23 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Athletic linebacker who moves well and could go higher than this. As with all the UNC seniors, his play dropped off towards the end the year.

	#24 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) His 2011 performance warrants a higher pick, but positional value could lead to a slight fall.

	#25 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Has several limitations.

	#26 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) The Texans might struggle to re-sign Mario Williams, so could look elsewhere for further additions to their growing defense.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.

	#28 Melvin Ingram (OLB, South Carolina) He’s a tweaner who best suits playing off the edge in the 3-4. This would be a good fit.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and need a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) In recent years Baltimore have capitalised on players falling into this range to get value. Coples could drop into the late first.

	#31 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) Big, brutal linebacker who eats up run plays. Would be a great addition to New York’s defense.

	#32 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) He plays like a runaway train – unbalanced, a bit out of control, yet with plenty of power and speed.

I want to try and make these mock drafts different, not just a weekly repetition with one or two minor tweaks. These things are never that accurate and a good mock draft should never be the benchmark for validation. This is all about the journey from September to April – watching the tape, making the judgements and coming to conclusions. I expect a lot of people to disagree with this week’s projection, but that’s OK. We’re over three months away from the draft and now is the time for debate.

There is one significant tweak today because although I don’t project trades, I’ve laid things out to look at what will happen if a certain deals occur early in round one. If a team like Miami does move up to draft Robert Griffin III, how does it impact other picks? It seems likely Minnesota won’t draft Griffin, but I’ve put RGIII at #3 to see how the cards fall in that situation.

With Seattle’s pick I’ve gone in a direction I’ve hinted at for the last seven days. I know the Seahawks won’t reach for a quarterback, but John Schneider and Pete Carrol have a different way of doing things. A lot of people in the media hadn’t even considered James Carpenter in round one last April – yet Seattle made him the #25 pick. It was obvious why they liked Carpenter – he stood out on tape for Alabama and even jumped off the screen a few times blocking for Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. We talked about him often on this blog because the guy clearly had talent. Maybe he was a little raw, but the physical potential and room for development was extremely high.

The Seahawks made similar picks throughout, raising a few eye brows when they took John Moffitt in round three and Kris Durham and KJ Wright in round four. There were bigger, more established names on the board – but Seattle’s front office knew exactly what they wanted. This continued all the way into day three of the draft – unique picks, most of which had an instant impact. I’m not here to say Brock Osweiler definitely falls into that same category – particularly as a quarterback – but he’s another player with incredible potential even if he is a little unrefined. Look at the players this team has signed at the position so far and they all have similar physical attributes. Osweiler may be a more talented version of what they already have.

He’s starting to get a bit of national attention too, which isn’t unexpected but certainly it’s helpful. Today I noticed a tweet from ESPN’s Todd McShay stating, “Momentum building for Osweiler as a late-first round grade after three tapes studied. Maybe 3rd QB after Luck, RGIII?” This was closely followed by a reply from McShay’s Scouts Inc colleague Kevin Wiedl (whose opinion is worth noting, he’s one of the best around) who added, “Extremely impressed with Osweiler’s tape. A lot of tools to work with and a competitor. Stock could rise moving further into the process.” Interesting.

We’ve already looked at tape against USC, Utah, Oregon and Boise State. In the video above you’ll see Osweiler’s performance against Illinois (thanks to TTN2810 for supplying the tape). Expect further thoughts tomorrow, but for now let’s get into this week’s mock.

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. At this stage, I don’t think there’s any deal Indianapolis would accept to trade this pick.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Minnesota won’t draft Griffin, but I don’t project ‘trades’. I want to look at a mock where RG3 leaves the board here in the event of a deal.

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) I could see Richardson being Cleveland’s choice even if Griffin is still on the board. He’s that good.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) He’s had a great year and put his stock firmly in this range. Tampa Bay can’t lose if they take Claiborne or Trent Richardson.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants hisguy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Jacksonville are known for doing things differently. It’s speculated that a lot of teams see Wright as the #1 receiver in this class.

	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Depending on the appointment of their new coach, I still think Miami are the favorites to trade up for Griffin. Minnesota would then draft a lineman like Reiff.

	#9 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) A complete lack of defensive line talent could push a raw youngster like Brockers into this range.

	#10 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) If the Bills don’t re-sign Stevie Johnson, receiver becomes a desperate need. They also need to improve the offensive line and pass rush.

	#11 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Undersized but a tackling machine. The kind of player Scott Pioli likes to draft for his team.

	#12 Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) The tape doesn’t lie and there’s a lot to like about Osweiler. If Christian Ponder is good enough to go here, so is this guy.

	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) This is the kind of range where Martin becomes a bargain and well worth the risk to improve Arizona’s offensive line.

	#14 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s big and good in run support, but struggles in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) The Eagles will look closely at the linebacker position and Brown is a good fit for Philly’s scheme.

	#16 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Few players have enjoyed the level of progress shown by Barron in 2011. He’s firmly in the round one equation.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Courtney Upshaw (OLB, Alabama) The kind of player San Diego is lacking on defense and will instantly improve their attitude and pass rush at outside linebacker.

	#19 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The best receiver in this class as far as I’m concerned. He has enough talent to become the complete package.

	#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation in 2011 for sacks. A hard player to work out.

	#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. The Bengals needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly.

	#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers. Floyd has his issues, but put him on that offense with Trent Richardson and it’ll be much improved. They’d still need a quarterback.

	#23 Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia) He doesn’t have elite size but he’ll light up the combine and push his stock into this range.

	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) I’m not a fan personally, but reports suggest it’s likely Adams will go in this range. The Steelers could look again at the offensive line.

	#25 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Broncos run the ball well and could look to add another back to their stable. Carolina had two first round runners under John Fox.

	#26 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) The Texans might struggle to re-sign Mario Williams, so could look elsewhere for further additions to their growing defense.

	#27 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) I’m still trying to get an angle on Still. It often looks like his best fit may be at the five-technique.

	#28 Fletcher Cox (DE, Mississippi State) He plays a bit like a runaway train. He’s unbalanced but moves well for a big guy. He looks ideal for the 5-technique position.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. New York aren’t desperate at receiver, but they could be creative here.

	#30 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) In recent years Baltimore have capitalised on players falling into this range to get value. Coples could drop into the late first.

	#31 Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) Jeffery divides opinion. He is capable of making big plays, but he runs sloppy routes and looks ‘too big’.

	#32 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro.

I’ve gone against my convictions this week. Tony Pauline at Draft Insider.net and SI.com is one of the best in the business at getting the inside edge on what teams are thinking in the draft. Last year he quoted sources claiming Tyron Smith would be a top-ten pick long before people were even including him in their mock drafts. The Dallas Cowboys drafted Smith ninth overall. When Pauline reports on what the teams are thinking, it’s worth taking notice.

Ryan Tannehill isn’t someone I can grade as a first round pick. He was bitterly disappointing during the 2011 season and justifications like a lack of experience were off-set by an ideal environment including high quality pass protection and a cluster of NFL weapons. I’ve not included him in a single projection so far because I didn’t expect him to be drafted in round one. However – despite breaking his foot and pulling out of the Senior Bowl this week – Pauline is today reporting that Tannehill will very likely go in the top-15:

“Why is Tannehill making such a bounce up draft boards in recent weeks?  One trusted source told me teams are eating up the quarterbacks upside potential and described it as “the love affair factor”- teams see what Tannehillcan develop into at the next level and can’t stay away.  His athleticism, mobility, toughness and decision making all has scouts giddy. With Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder coming off the board so early in the 2011 NFL Draft, teams now feel they have the green light to select someone such as Tannehill earlier than most anticipate.  Sources are saying don’t be shocked if the Texas A&M product ends up as a top 15 choice, depending on the injury.” – Tony Pauline

It’d be ignorant to brush aside such a report and for those reasons I have to put him in this week’s mock. The question is, how high does he go? I had a strong suspicion last year that Washington were hoping to draft Jake Locker with the 10th overall pick – so much so, I never budged from that predicition throughout the process. Locker fit like a glove in Mike Shanahan’s offense and it wasn’t surprising that the Redskins traded down – rejecting Blaine Gabbert in the process – after Tennessee chose Locker at #8. Tannehill doesn’t have the same upside as the former Washington quarterback, but he has a very similar skill set. Having come so close to getting their man last year, perhaps Shanahan won’t take any chances in 2012? After all, the relative cost of picking in the top-10 is much less these days so he can afford to roll the dice (at least financially). It wouldn’t necessarily prevent the Redskins from signing a prospective free agent like Peyton Manning. After all, Tennessee quickly signed Matt Hasselbeck to a three-year contract after drafting Locker.

The Cleveland Browns still provide healthy debate at #4. I think there’s a good chance they will look at other options at quarterback rather than draft Robert Griffin III and I have to believe  Trent Richardson will be on their radar. We’ll know more depending on what the Browns do in free agency, with Matt Flynn a possible target and maybe even Kevin Kolb if the Cardinals trigger their ‘get-out’ clause after a series of mediocre performances last season. If the Browns do pass on Griffin III, I don’t think it’s a shoe-in that he’d automatically go to Washington. Let’s not forget, many people expected Blaine Gabbert to be the second quarterback drafted last April but he was chosen after Jake Locker. Although the hype for Rg3 is much greater, I still think there’s a very good chance he could fall to Miami at #8 or #9. If the Seahawks want a shot at Griffin, they’re going to have to move up.

For Seattle’s pick this week I’ve returned to Courtney Upshaw. He’s not going to provide that burst of speed in the front seven that Pete Carroll is looking for, but he’ll improve the team’s pass rush. Despite his lack of height, he’s a warrior at the LOS and holds up incredibly well against the run. Seattle could use a lot of different looks, using Upshaw as a power end at times in a front four and in space off the edge on certain calls with the three big bodies in the middle and Clemons at the LEO. They could even try him as a WILL linebacker and certainly he flashed decent mobility against LSU, although coverage skills aren’t a strength. What he could provide is a more balanced attack while helping to build the teams physical style that refuses to concede the run. He’ll be a tone setter, a ring leader and his attitude coincides with the other players already on the team. He might not be the lean, elite edge rusher that usually goes in the top-15 – but there’s every chance he’ll have an impact in the NFL. At the top of this blog post, you’ll find game tape from Upshaw’s performance against LSU in the BCS Championship courtesy of JMPasq.

Note: Yesterday I conducted an interview with Danny Kelly at Field Gulls talking about several quarterback prospects. To see the piece in full, click here.

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Despite a lot of talk about keeping Manning and drafting Luck, it remains an unlikely proposition. Long term thinking will win out.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Minnesota would love a shot at Kalil. Claiborne is a decent consolation prize to improve their struggling secondary.

	#4 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Richardson has to be a consideration here, but the hype surrounding RG3 is intense and it’ll be tough for Cleveland to justify passing.

	#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Elite talent who will be a star in year one. Tampa Bay get a steal with this pick if Richardson is still on the board.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) A foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This is too high for Blackmon in my opinion, but his production will interest teams. The Jaguars need to help Blaine Gabbert.

	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Miami will pick 8th if they win a coin toss with Carolina. With RG3 off the board, expect Miami to beef up their run game.

	#9 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) A complete lack of defensive line talent could encourage one or two unexpected players to declare. Brockers is one to watch.

	#10 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Bills go into the off-season needing to improve their pass rush and pass protection. Martin would be a wise pick here.

	#11 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Undersized but a tackling machine. The kind of player Scott Pioli likes to draft for his team.

	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) If the Seahawks want to improve their pass rush and continue to build a defensive identity, Upshaw could be the pick here.

	#13 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) With the tackles leaving the board early, Arizona will be forced to address their second most important need – an outside rush.

	#14 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s big and good in run support, but struggles in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) The Eagles will look closely at the linebacker position and Brown is a good fit for Philly’s scheme.

	#16 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Few players have enjoyed the level of progress shown by Barron in 2011. He’s firmly in the round one equation.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) They won’t franchise Vincent Jackson again and need a weapon for Philip Rivers. Jones could be the complete package. Underrated.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) The ultimate deep threat. Jay Cutler will get the most out of Wright, who should be able to have a Mike Wallace-type impact.

	#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation in 2011 for sacks. A hard player to work out.

	#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. The Bengals needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly.

	#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers. Floyd has his issues, but put him on that offense with Trent Richardson and it’ll be much improved. They’d still need a quarterback.

	#23 Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia) He doesn’t have elite size but he’ll light up the combine and push his stock into this range.

	#24 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) Although his stock is falling, someone could take a shot on Burfict. My guess is he’ll end up playing in the AFC North.

	#25 Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri) He’s very much the modern tight end – a pure pass catcher who will make spectacular plays downfield.

	#26 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Broncos run the ball well and could look to add another back to their stable. Carolina had two first round runners under John Fox.

	#27 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) I’m still trying to get an angle on Still. It often looks like his best fit may be at the five-technique.

	#28 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and Jim Harbaugh will find different ways to get him involved. Another powerful weapon for San Fran.

	#30 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) In recent years Baltimore have capitalised on players falling into this range to get value. Coples could drop into the late first.

	#31 Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) Jeffery divides opinion. He is capable of making big plays, but he runs sloppy routes and looks ‘too big’.

	#32 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) He plays a bit like a runaway train. He’s unbalanced but moves well for a big guy. He looks ideal for the 5-technique position.

Sam Montgomery tape vs Alabama & Georgia provided to Seahawks Draft Blog by JMPasq

One thing struck me during Pete Carroll’s end-of-season press conference yesterday – his belief in the need for speed. He talked openly about wanting more pace among his front seven, with the pass rush considered a prime target-area for improvement. The Seahawks generated modest pressure during the 2011 season, often relying on Chris Clemons at the LEO specialist position for sacks. The ‘big three’ in the middle – Alan Branch, Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant – combined for four total sacks. If it wasn’t for a seemingly never-ending question mark at the quarterback position, there’s no doubt what Seattle’s most pressing concern would be.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Carroll spent most of his near 50-minute session answering questions about Tarvaris Jackson. It’s hard to get a read on Seattle’s plans solely based on what we discovered here, but it seemed to me that Carroll appreciates what we all know – that Jackson isn’t a long term option, but right now he’s the best quarterback on the roster. The Seahawks need more than 14 passing touchdowns in the regular season. In fact, Matt Hasselbeck and Jackson combined for just 26 passing scores in the last two years. To put that into context, ten quarterbacks scored 26 or more touchdown throws this season alone – including the much maligned Mark Sanchez. Jackson’s scoring totals matched Colt McCoy, were comparable to Blaine Gabbert and Matt Moore had better numbers in 12 starts for Miami. Sure, he battled a torn pectoral muscle. Yet we didn’t see enough from the healthy Jackson to believe he’d taken any giant leaps from his time in Minnesota.

Carroll has actually been fairly open and honest with his press conferences in the past. Last year he spoke of getting bigger up front and making the offensive line a priority. The end product? Seattle spent its first two picks on big bodied lineman. I believe Carroll was 100% telling the truth when he said re-signing Hasselbeck was the #1 priority, but I also believe the lockout and Tennesee’s offer of a three-year deal changed the situation completely. This year, Carroll spoke about the draft depth at quarterback and the amount of work already conducted by John Schneider to get an angle on this QB-class. Perhaps this is just a presumption made far too early to carry any weight, but I felt like the Seahawks weren’t expecting to make any aggressive moves up the board to target Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. I do believe the Seahawks will be prepared to ‘make their move’ one day to get their guy at quarterback, I just feel like that quarterback is probably playing in SoCal in 2012. 

So this brings us back to the front seven. Carroll says he wants more speed and that he’s looking for improved inside and outside pressure. This isn’t a great class for interior defensive lineman, so Seattle may be forced to look at outside rushers and athletic linebackers who can bring it from the WILL position. Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) would’ve been a perfect fit for the WILL but he’s staying in college. However, a lack of top-end depth could persuade several other players to declare. Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) is among the best interior line prospects in the nation. He’s only a redshirt sophomore and still has a lot of developing to do, but could winning the BCS Championship and seeing a chance to be the #1 player drafted at his position tempt him to turn pro?

Seattle’s pick comes in the form of a different LSU Tiger – outside rusher Sam Montgomery. He’s got a near identical build to Clay Matthews III when he turned pro and a similar intensity on the field. He has nine sacks this season, including a deuce in the 9-6 win over Alabama during the regular season. If the Seahawks are looking for speed and a better pass rush, they could easily line Montgomery opposite Clemons and use a more orthodox 3-4 look with the three big bodies in the middle, while keeping the front four on passing downs. It’s hard to imagine how the Seahawks will significantly improve their pass rush by just improving the outside speed at the WILL linebacker position currently occupied by Leroy Hill. Carroll is quite openly prepared to use a slightly unbalanced line that enhances Red Bryant’s effectiveness as a run stuffer, but also flashes his weakness to provide any kind of edge threat. The only issue is run defense and the lack of size the Seahawks would have at the edge. That’s why they may have to ultimately consider switching to a 3-4 to use players like Clemons and potentially Montgomery, unless they’re going to rely on the linebackers to force runs wide. They have the size at cornerback to manage run support, but ideally you want to remain big up front.

Note: Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) returns for this week’s mock after choosing to declare. Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) has been removed after reports suggested he was leaning towards returning to Boston College.

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Despite a lot of talk about keeping Manning and drafting Luck, it remains an unlikely proposition. Long term thinking will win out.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Minnesota would love a shot at Kalil. It might be a bit of a reach, but protecting Christian Ponder must be a priority.

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Last year Cincinnati used this pick to draft a supreme playmaker in AJ Green, before taking a quarterback in round two. Cleveland might do the same.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) He’s had a fantastic season with six interceptions. This seems like an obvious match for the Buccs.

	#6 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) I still predict Peyton Manning will be a Redskin, and that Mike Shanahan will target Ryan Tannehill in round two for the future.

	#7 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This is too high for Blackmon in my opinion, but his production will interest teams. The Jaguars need to help Blaine Gabbert.

	#8 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Miami will pick 8th if they win a coin toss with Carolina. If Cleveland and Washington pass, RG3 will take his talents to South Beach.

	#9 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) A complete lack of defensive line talent could encourage one or two unexpected players to declare. Brockers is one to watch against Alabama.

	#10 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) If Stevie Johnson doesn’t return, the Bills will be paper-thin at receiver. Jones is the complete package.

	#11 Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU) Built like Clay Matthews and with a similar intensity. Montgomery could play opposite Chris Clemons to improve Seattle’s pass rush.

	#12 Barrett Jones (OT, Alabama) Another underclassmen few expect to declare, but a need at tackle and a weak top-15 group could push him into the NFL.

	#13 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) With the tackles leaving the board early, Arizona will be forced to address their second most important need – an outside rush.

	#14 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s big and good in run support, but struggles in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) The Eagles will look closely at the linebacker position and Brown is a good fit for Philly’s scheme.

	#16 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Few players have enjoyed the level of progress shown by Barron in 2011. He’s firmly in the round one equation.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Courtney Upshaw (OLB, Alabama) The kind of pass rusher San Diego have drafted in the past. They need to find some outside pressure.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) The ultimate deep threat. Jay Cutler will get the most out of Wright, who should be able to have a Mike Wallace-type impact.

	#20 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Coples is a complete enigma. He has the physical talents to be great, but we don’t see enough of it on tape.

	#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. The Bengals needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly.

	#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers. Floyd has his issues, but put him on that offense with Trent Richardson and it’ll be much improved. They’d still need a quarterback.

	#23 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) With 14.5 sacks this year, someone will give him a chance early in the draft. Detroit has bigger needs but could show interest here.

	#24 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Broncos run the ball well and could look to add another back to their stable. Carolina had two first round runners under John Fox.

	#25 Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri) He’s very much the modern tight end – a pure pass catcher who will make spectacular plays downfield.

	#26 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) Although I think his stock is falling, someone could take a shot on Burfict. My guess is he’ll end up playing AFC North..

	#27 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) I’m still trying to get an angle on Still. It often looks like his best fit may be at the five-technique.

	#28 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and Jim Harbaugh will find different ways to get him involved. Another powerful weapon for San Fran.

	#30 Jonathan Cooper (OG, North Carolina) A player not a lot of people are talking about, but has stood out every time I’ve watched the Tar Heels this season.

	#31 Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) Jeffery divides opinion. He is capable of making big plays, but he runs sloppy routes and looks ‘too big’. Could go much earlier than this, or much later.

	#32 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) He plays a bit like a runaway train. He’s a bit unbalanced, but moves well for a big guy. He looks ideal for a move to the 5-technique position.