Updated mock draft: 1st February

Boise State's Doug Martin could be an option for Seattle in round two

This week’s projection is based on information accumulated over the last two weeks and continued tape observation. This mock best describes how I see things unfolding after the Senior Bowl and building up to the combine. Some of the picks will go against on my own personal grades, but I want to put down a mock I can return to after the combine to see how things have changed as we move closer to April 26th. For that reason, I’ve also included a second round to this week’s projection. 

I want to highlight the decision to have Minnesota take Robert Griffin III with the #3 overall pick. Last year, the Vikings spent a high first rounder on Christian Ponder and many people will disagree strongly with the suggestion they would draft another quarterback in round one this year. 

For starters, I think Minnesota’s situation has changed significantly in the last twelve months. When Brett Favre was quarterback in 2009, the Vikings came within a drive of the Super Bowl. They somehow (desperately) managed to convince an injured Favre to return in 2010 and the result was a bit of a mess. I firmly believe the Vikings thought they had a roster good enough to compete if they could sort out their quarterback situation. They drafted Ponder with the #12 pick last April, then traded for Donovan McNabb to be the bridge. During the 2011 season, Minnesota surely realised they weren’t so close to competing after all. They have an old and bad offensive line, they have no secondary and even the pass rush is looking long in the tooth. They lost Sidney Rice and became too dependant on Percy Harvin. Adrian Peterson was left to carry the offense and he ended the year with a serious knee injury. 

Having been so close to the Super Bowl, two seasons later the Vikings are pretty much back at square one. They need to rebuild

Really this situation isn’t too different to the one facing Carolina twelve months ago. Like the Vikings, in the space of two years the Panthers went from NFC challenger to picking very early in round one. When the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen with their first selection in 2010, they had greater expectations for the rest of their roster. When it fell apart to the extent they were the worst team in the NFL, they knew they had to start over. Faced with the chance to draft a building block, Carolina took Cam Newton first overall and Clausen became an after-though. Sure, Ponder was a much higher pick – but the situation is very similar. Two years removed from being legitimate NFC challengers, the Vikings are picking 3rd overall and they have a chance to draft their Cam Newton. 

You could argue it’s the team’s duty to build around Ponder and improve the offensive line, find him another receiver and piece together the defense. But here’s the thing: If Minnesota were picking first overall, would they draft Andrew Luck? Of course they would. Sure, they might see what they can get in a trade along the way – but like pretty much every team in the league they’d draft the big prize available at #1 this year. So if they’re willing to move past Ponder for Luck, would they do the same for Griffin III? 

Think about it – Minnesota needs an icon. Adrian Peterson may never be the same again after his injury, so what does that leave you with? If Christian Ponder reaches his peak, the best he can hope to be is Chad Pennington. Is that really what you want to build around? Instead, you could have Robert Griffin III. Start Ponder for a year or two as the bridge and take your lumps. Build around RGIII and give him the time to learn a pro-style offense. If Ponder develops in that time – superb! You have the makings of a nice trade with another team who needs a quarterback. If not, bring on the RGIII era. 

As the 12th pick last April, Ponder’s salary is just $10.5m on a four year contract. Tarvaris Jackson will earn around $8m for two years work in Seattle. There is no financial restriction here and Minnesota could easily accommodate both quarterbacks on their roster. Would it be different if they could draft a left tackle with elite potential such as Matt Kalil? Perhaps, but it’s almost certain St. Louis will draft the USC prospect if they can’t manufacture a trade with someone moving up for Griffin. Nothing is a guarantee of course, but I’m led to believe there’s a feeling among some sections of the league that Griffin III won’t get out of the top three picks. This maybe justifies why St. Louis are actually being touted as a logical trade partner. 

It wouldn’t be a major stretch if the Vikings’ draft board read: 1) Luck 2) Kalil 3) Griffin III. You don’t often get the chance to draft that early so you need to make those picks count. Are you really going to pass on a special talent at quarterback for Christian Ponder’s sake? If Griffin III is set to be taken in the top three picks, Seahawks fans hoping for a deal can forget about  it. The Rams aren’t going to trade with Seattle and if the Vikings do like RGIII, it’ll cost a kings ransom to move up. It appears defense will be on the agenda for the ‘Hawks at #11 or #12 unless a talented offensive player like Trent Richardson suffers an unlikely fall. 

Updated first round

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.
#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.
#3 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
If Minnesota would’ve been prepared to take Andrew Luck at #1, why wouldn’t they consider taking RGIII here?.
#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
Elite playmaking talent who will have an instant impact. Cleveland may draft Richardson here even if Griffin’s still on the board.
#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need.
#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M)
This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.
#7 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
He’s an enigma, but also a player some teams will love to take a chance on. Expect Jacksonville to sign receivers during free agency.
#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
Carolina want to have lots of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.
  #9 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
Green Bay has a lot of talented receivers, Miami has Brandon Marshall. If Joe Philbin goes back for Matt Flynn, he’ll need targets.
#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
The Bills would be in a good spot here with both Reiff and Jonathan Martin on the board. Pick your poison.
#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama)
Upshaw won’t blow up the combine and that could put him in range for the Seahawks.
#12 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
The Chiefs could do with boosting their offensive line. They’d have the option to play Martin at left or right tackle.
#13 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina)
With two offensive tackles leaving the board quickly, it could force Arizona to go for another need – pass rusher.
#14 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU)
Most people expect Dallas to draft for their secondary in round one, but the options aren’t great – unlike Brockers.
  #15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, but he might have to. Zach Brown will start to rise up the boards very soon.
  #16 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
I’m not a big fan but the Jets need a receiver and Floyd just looks like a Rex Ryan type of pick.
#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford)
Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.
  #18 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State)
He was practically unstoppable at the Senior Bowl and teams will be looking at Adams as a potential blind side blocker.
#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.
#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)
They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation for sacks. A hard player to work out.
#21 Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
Safety’s with Barron’s range are difficult to find and his 2011 performance warrants top-25 consideration.
#22 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
Having added a running back, they now add possibly the best receiver in the draft class. Quarterback later on or in free agency.
#23 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia)
A senior bowl to remember will help promote his stock, but he got better and better as the season went on for Georgia.
#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.
#25 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College)
He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Has some limitations and he’s no pass rusher.
#26 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State)
Imagine JJ Watt and Fletcher Cox on the same defensive line. If they lose Mario Williams, they need to find a pass-rush replacement.
#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin)
Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.
#28 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Great in run support but not so much in coverage. Green Bay would get value here but Kirkpatrick has a lot to work on.
#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and need a sure-handed catcher.
#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama)
A Ravens type of player if ever you saw one. He’s stout against the run but makes enough plays on the move to go here.
#31 Sean Spence (LB, Miami)
Underrated linebacker who makes up for great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.
#32 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
A top-ten talent on the field, but an UDFA off it. New England are willing to take on projects like this (see: Ryan Mallett).

Second round 

#33 St. Louis – Juron Criner (WR, Arizona)
The Rams make use of the depth at receiver this year and find Sam Bradford a new #1 target. 

#34 Indianapolis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
In moving to the 3-4, the Colts need a nose tackle. Ta’amu could go earlier than this. 

#35 Minnesota – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
Without a great offensive lineman or cornerback available here, the Vikings checkdown and go receiver. 

#36 Tampa Bay – Chris Polk (RB, Washington)
He’s not Trent Richardson, but he’s the kind of physical runner the Bucs will look for. 

#37 Cleveland – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
A steal for the Browns who are slowly building a top young defensive line. 

#38 Jacksonville – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
The Jaguars double dip at defensive end and makeover their pass rush having added Quinton Coples earlier. 

#39 Washington – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Getting a big target for their new quarterback would be a wise idea and Jeffery is good value here. 

#40 Carolina – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
Like Jacksonville, Carolina double-up on a big area of need. Thompson + Stills = scary. 

#41 Buffalo – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
The next best pass rusher on the board having added to the offensive line in round one. 

#42 Miami – Cam Johnson (DE, Virginia)
The Dolphins also need to improve their edge rush and take this rising senior with a lot of potential. 

#43 Seattle – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
The Seahawks know their offense is based around the run and they need to make sure they have strong depth at running back. 

#44 Kansas City – Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis)
Nose tackle is a position of great value these days and the Chiefs make sure they get a young one here. 

#45 Dallas – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
Just a great playmaker who I suspect Jerry Jones will rate highly. He gambles, but he’s also exciting. 

#46 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
The Eagles always make sure they’re prepared at quarterback and Osweiler is underrated. 

#47 New York Jets – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
This would be excellent value for a player with lots of pass-rushing ability. 

#48 New England – Joe Adams (WR, Arkansas)
Whoever drafts this guy won’t be sorry. 

#49 San Diego – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
3-4 teams looking for an edge rusher will give McClellin strong consideration in round two. 

#50 Chicago – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
A player who lurches between dominant and irrelevant, but it’s worth trying to keep the lights on. 

#51 Philadelphia – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
Speedy linebacker who’s gaining momentum. Will provide some pass rushing threat. 

#52 Tennessee Mike Martin (DT, Michigan)
The tape says 100% effort guy with a lot of talent and teams will want him on their roster. 

#53 Cincinnati – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
This would possibly be the steal of the draft. 

#54 Detroit – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
He’s raw and lacks technique, but there’s a bit of JPP about his style. 

#55 Atlanta Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
The heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez? 

#56 Pittsburgh – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
He looked good enough in the Senior Bowl to make it into the back-end of round two. 

#57 Denver – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
A running back with a lot of speed but doesn’t always make the best decisions. 

#58 Houston Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
The unsung hero of the ‘Bama defense. He played really well in 2011. 

#59 New Orleans – Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
Huge potential in terms of physical quality and ability to catch the ball. 

#60 Green Bay – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
The Packers are always one step ahead of the curve when it comes to quarterbacks. 

#61 Baltimore – Alfonzo Dennard (DB, Nebraska)
I’ve always had him in this range and don’t buy the first round talk. 

#62 San Francisco – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
The Niners can run a lot of dangerous 2TE sets if they draft this guy. 

#63 New York Giants – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
He can do a back flip. He is 299lbs. 

#64 New England Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
I like Lewis, he’s just not spectacular in any particular way. Just a good all-round skill set. 

Just missed the cut: Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State), Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia), Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame), Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State), Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson), Brandon Washington (G, Miami), Chase Minnifield (CB, Virginia), Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor).


  1. williambryan

    Would be ecstatic with that Doug Martin pick. I think he is the best back in the draft.

  2. woofu

    On board with the Ponder theme. When you look at back-up pay Ponder would not be too far off a reasonable contract. RG3 @ 3 though might draw some high priced back-up ire.

    I prefer teams to go after problems with volume picks and FA signings. This year I’d prefer it to be two pass rush picks in a row with some FA OL signings.

    Curious why you had Cousins after “O” ?

  3. hazbro

    I’m still less than convinced on Upshaw. If the board fell this way I’d be looking to trade back, but also taking a long look at Jonathan Martin because I’ve got no faith in big boy coming back from an ACL–and he never moved all that well before he tore it anyways.

    Doug Martin would be an excellent pick up, but I’d be upset if we passed on Osweiler to pick up a RB in the second round. The idea of kicking the QB can down the road for yet another year sucks the life out of my fandom. But they haven’t signed TJ to a long term deal yet, so there is hope.

    I do enjoy your mocks, they seem to be one of the few grounded in reality.

  4. jim J

    How about another DE in the second and Pead, RB in the third. Washington lost his effectiveness as a kick returner in the second half of the season. Pead had some good run backs.

  5. jim J

    Hazbro has a good point about our offensive line. But if we are going to look at offense, a QB or WR would also be a possibility in the first round.

  6. SHawn

    Yay for the Upshaw pick. Youre right too, he won’t blow up the combine and some that do will move ahead of him come draft day. He very likely could be there for us at 11 or 12 (i thought the coin flip already happened, any word on that Rob?).

    But with the offensive players I like being taken by the time we pick in rd 2 (Randle, Jeffery, Polk), I would prefer Cousins, Osweiler, or Worthy to Doug Martin in rd 2, since I see Martin as no better than Forsett, an explosive guy who is undersized and wont punish the opposing teams LBs like Lynch does and Richardson and Polk will. If he is there in the 3rd I would bite, but if he isn’t, Pead or maybe Cyrus Gray would be there.

  7. Travis

    I would really happy if the first two rounds went down like this for the seahawks. Big fan of Upshaw. I personally think Doug Martin is the second best running back in the draft, very physical runner, can catch out of the back field and can pass block. He reminds me a lot of Mark Ingram.

  8. Micah

    What range do you think the Hawks look at QB since you have us punting on the first and second tier of QBs, Rob?

  9. SHawn

    Is it just me or are some of your teams out of order in the 2nd rd Rob?

  10. Rob

    Woofu – Osweiler is the clear #3 quarterback in this class for me.

    Jim J – there aren’t many logical DE options for Seattle with that second pick in this mock. Linebacker and DE is an option even if they take a guy like Upshaw first, but running back is also in play.

    Shawn – Which picks do you think are out of place in R2? As far as I’m aware that’s the correct order, but happy to change it if it’s not the case.

    Micah – it’s a situation that could be solved in free agency or via trade. Next year might be more likely for a high QB draft pick. I think they’ll draft a QB at some point though.

  11. Dan V.

    I love Doug Martin, but in the scenario you lay out here I would go Osweiler or Cousins in Round Two. Solid running backs can be had in later rounds and the drop-off from Martin wouldn’t be severe.

    The chance to get a potential elite (Osweiler) or very solid (Cousins) QB in the 2nd round would be too good to pass up for the Hawks, unless the plan is to finish building the defense this year and SELL OUT in a trade-up scenario next year. Unlikelly given Schneiders roots.

    LOVE Upshaw. Please please please please.

  12. dave crockett

    Like Dan V. I’m jaw-dropped that you have Seattle passing over Osweiler for Doug Martin (who I LOVE, btw). That doesn’t sound like you at all.

    You gotta say a bit more about your reasoning on that one Rob. Are you hearing that PC/JS isn’t high on Osweiler? I mean, even if Seattle signs Peyton Manning the Tuesday after the Super Bowl I’d be shocked if they passed over Osweiler for any 2nd round RB (even Polk). The only way that makes sense to me is if you got word that Seattle just isn’t feeling the kid.

  13. SHawn

    Well, from what I had heard, we lost the coin flip with KC and pick 12th and 43rd in the first 2 rds. KC picks 11th and 44th. I am not 100% this has happened, but we would NOT pick 11th AND 43rd.

    Everywhere else I saw a problem, I was incorrect, due to the fact that I thought each tier of similar records fully reversed each rd, instead of cycling one at a time to the back of the line. So you’re probably right on and I was mistaken.

  14. Nick

    Good stuff Rob, but I just can’t see Minnesota doing it. The first two picks will be starters for the greater part of the decade, yet the third overall will be a backup waiting on the success or failure of a former first round QB.

    As an organization you don’t hope to be picking top 5 very often, so the player you choose should be able to contribute for a long time, and most importantly, right away. While Griffin may turn out to be an amazing player, what happens if Ponder starts to show good progress and makes the decision to move on from him very difficult. Worse yet, what happens if Griffin doesn’t show enough progress to label him the sure starter?

    They need to plug in the BPA in that spot, be it Blackmon or Claiborne, or entertain trade offers. Banking the success of the 3rd overall pick on the success or failure of another player is just not the way to go.

  15. Mike

    Shawn – Coin flip happens at the combine – it hasn’t happened yet so the order is not yet known.

  16. Rob

    dave crockett – I don’t have any information on Seattle’s view of Osweiler, that hasn’t come into play here. Personally I’d draft the guy, but I have to consider what the team could be thinking rather than my own preference.

    Shawn – as mentioned by Mike the coin toss hasn’t taken place yet. It’ll be at the combine.

  17. TJ

    Doug Martin as an absolute stud. Despite his size, he is very physical. His nickname is “The Muscle Hamster.” He reminds me of Ray Rice.

    Just curious, if Upshaw isn’t a speed rusher, how is he different than Seattle’s former 1st round pick Lawrence Jackson? Jackson wasn’t great at anything, but was considered a good all-around player.

  18. Rob

    I think they’re very different players, TJ. Upshaw is technically superior, stronger, great recognition skills, brutal bull rush, superb lower body power. Lawrence Jackson was taller but didn’t flash any truly elite skills. Upshaw will help define a defense, Jackson will only ever supliment one.

  19. Kevin

    Is it possible to trade for the second overall pick AFTER another team has traded STL for it. For example could Dallas (just randomly chose them) trade STL for the #2 then trade us the #2 pick for more than what they gave up? It is highly unlikely but is it possible?

  20. Rob

    I think you’d be looking at a three-team trade there Kevin, and there would need to be more in it than just Dallas being the middle-man. I think it’s highly unlikely and I don’t think the Seahawks have much interest in moving up anyway.

  21. Turp

    Do we have any tape on Doug Martin? I’m surprised you had him before Miller; obviously I need to watch some tape! I’m intrigued by a comp to Ray Rice.

  22. John

    The more I see of Cousins the more I think we should take him in the second if he’s there. He has everything he needs to be effective in Seattle’s system. He’s smart, used to playing under center, can sell play action extremely well, and throw a great deep ball. That’s exactly what Carroll wants. We aren’t going to draft Barkley (who I think is waaaayyyy overrated), and I cannot take another year of T-Jack without knowing there is another option. I’m okay with T-Jack starting another year to groom Cousins, but Cousins does enough right to make me believe he can succeed in Seattle.

    I get that the running game is the life blood of Seattle, but you can pick someone up in later rounds or FA, or next year. As Rob’s said before, we aren’t going to draft high enough for a “sure thing” like Luck, so we have to start somewhere. I think Cousins is a great option.

  23. Billy Showbiz

    From what I’ve seen of Upshaw I’m impressed and I think he’d be a fine pick for us. The RB in round 2 would be tough for me to swallow. Of course we could use a better backup than Forsett but I believe we can find someone later in the draft. Of course if JS/PC think he’s the next Ray Rice then it is a good pick but it seems like more of a luxury when we are in serious need of a QB and Osweiler and Cousins are still there. I trust that they will have a plan but I would question this move.

  24. Darnell

    Not sure about Coples to the Jags, they tend to lean pretty strongly to “solid” prospects.

  25. PatrickH


    Do you know, how does Tony Pauline come up with his draft projections? Does he base them on his own scouting or base them on what his league sources told him? I looked at his draft insider blog today, and he has projected Dwight Jones as a 3rd round pick and Austin Davis as UDFA.

    BTW, since you will be doing several more mock drafts, can you do one assuming that the Seahawks have successfully traded up for RG3 but still keep their 2nd round pick this year? (Assume that they give up 1st and 3rd this year, 1st round and additional picks next year.) It will be fun to talk about what they would do with the 2nd pick in those circumstances.

  26. Derek

    Love the Upshaw pick. I would like the Hawks to sign Peyton Hillis in FA to be the other bruiser with Lynch. That would allow us to take either Cousins or Osweiller in the second, and a WILL prospect in the third. I think that would be a very solid first 3 rounds.

  27. Rob

    Patrick H – I’m not sure to be honest with Tony Pauline. At the start of the year, for example, he graded Landry Jones in the mid rounds (3-4). A few weeks later, Jones was given a R1 grade despite playing pretty poorly. So I think it may be a combination of sources and opinion. I wouldn’t expect the team to trade up for Griffin – as noted in the blurb, it seems he won’t be making it out of the top three and the Seahawks appear set to focus on defense in R1.

  28. Vin

    Im definitely liking the upshaw pick, but why the Martin pick? Especially with Miller and Cousins still on the board. I know nothing about Martin, but I do recall you being fairly high on Miller earlier, Rob. Like John, I’m hoping we pick Cousins at 43. Are you thinking that they’ll go after Austin or BJ Coleman later on? Anyway, keep up the mocks Rob! I may not agree with them, but my coworkers and I sure look forward to them. thanks

  29. Jake


    Glad to see Josh Chapman getting some love as a late 2nd round prospect.

    On to the Hawks…
    1st pick: Not a huge fan of Upshaw, I think he has limited potential in the league. Just my opinion, but I think he is already as good as he’s going to get. I look at him as a conventional LDE in the NFL (and he needs to add some bulk for that). For Seattle, he’s a LEO prospect and Brock replacement, with potentially some added ability to rush from the inside on pass downs. At most a 6-8 sack guy who will get some push opposite Clemons on obvious pass downs. Overall, he would help – but this early in the draft is where guys like Merriman, Ware, and JPP come from… elite pass rushers – not hard working, steady, limited talent. Seattle is a bad fit for his skillset in my opinion: Is he a slow LEO, an undersized 5-tech, or a situational inside rusher? That said, I think there is value in that if he can actually do all three.
    2nd Pick: Please, not a RB in rd. 2 – not for the first 4 rounds at least. We get little to no benefit from that (other than insurance). I think there are some late round guys: Creer, Pead, or a FA like Ivory that could give us better bang for the buck. I think PC would have to go QB in the 2nd if it fell this way… he’d have his choice of Osweiler, Cousins, Coleman, and old man Weeden in this scenario. I’m sure one of those guys would fit what he’s looking for.
    Even though I don’t agree, thanks for the mock! My workday is better having this site!

  30. Griffin


    Okay, so I understand the first pick…it makes sense. I do not understand he second pick however. I mean, I realize that our offense takes a significant hit when Beast Mode is taking a breather, but why would they use their 2nd round pick to fill this need?
    I think they’ve strongly hinted that they will draft a QB, and we know they have talked with Cousins (and seemed to like him), and if they wait until the 3rd their options will likely be very limited. Can the same be said if they wait until the 3rd for a RB? Is the RB out of Boise really that good? Also, if it were to fall something like this, who would you see them targeting for the QB spot?

    Thanks for your thoughts Rob.

  31. Derek

    Rob what are your thoughts on Mercilus? I understand one year wonder but also his coach was fired this year and he probably thought it was a good time to leave. Do you think he has the upside of JPP and would the coaching staff look into him at the 11/12 range? I find the lack of hype around him interesting. He had 9 forced fumbles and 16 sacks this year.

  32. Steve

    After watching the tape here and on Field Gulls, I prefere Ingram to Upshaw. Ingram can legitimately move inside in the dime, and drop back when disguising coverage. He can punch with the big guys, get to the qb, and move pretty good in space. I bet he has a bigger impact on whatever team ho goes to than Upshaw.

  33. Griffin


    The lack of hype around Mercilus is quite strange to me as well. His production was ridiculous and he kind of reminds me of Elvis Dumervill (not because of his play or because they have similar physical traits) because they both just produced in college.
    Dumervill wasn’t drafted super early because he didn’t really stand out as being good at any specific thing, except that he had an uncanny knack of being able to sack the QB…this trait transferred to the NFL.

  34. Vandehawk

    Great mock, I would love to see Upshaw for the Hawks in the first but I would also much rather see Cousins or Osweiler in the 2nd. I think that Martin would be a good pick but I also think that there are certainly good backs that would be available later that would be a greater value. I really like Ganaway from Baylor, what do you think about the Hawks taking a look at him later in the draft if they don’t go running back with the 2nd round pick?

  35. Tarry

    shocked at your RB for us. With Lamar Miller and David Wilson still on the board, I’m curious what it is about Martin you like better?

  36. craig

    Love the upshaw pick, but I’m sticking to my guns that a RB wont be selected early. The QB’s that PCJS will draft is Cousins, BJ Coleman, Weeden, Tannehill, or Foles. I dont think any other available QB’s will fit their needs or be attractive as a replacement to TJACK and Hass. Remember when you project “mobile” qb’s that Pete wanted Palmer and to resign Hasselbeck…”mobile” isnt necessarily his standard

  37. Rugby Lock

    Keep up the good work Rob as it is much appreciated!!! Like many I would prefer Cousins in the 2nd and think that pick makes more sense than the RB from Boise.

  38. Tarry

    Rob, before I post next time I’ll read through the comments… lots of questions surrounding Martin sorry.

    I’ll ask this instead – Tauren Poole – Tennessee, I like him a lot, but may not be considered a ‘change of pace back’ to Lynch, but he could be an option in the 3rd or possibly 4th round. Pool battled hamstring issue this year, but I think he runs extremely well. Like others I like Cousins 2nd round if there.

  39. dave crockett


    on Poole — there’s a bit to like there. I have a friend who is a huge Yoo-Tee fan, but my impression is that Poole lacks some top end speed. I see him as a mildly better version of Force. I think Poole proved in the post-season that he can play in the league, but I bet he’ll be available way late–like 4th, 5th, or 6th.

    I’m like you though… still jaw-dropped about why Rob would mock a RB (even one I like as much as Martin) over a potential down-the-road starting QB like Osweiler or Cousins in the 2nd round. Like, I’m wondering if this really is the same Rob or whether this is some sort of android replacement sent by the 49ers, eerily similar in nearly every way but sent to make mischief. #conspiracytheory

  40. Doug

    Love the Martin pick for 2 solid reasons: My name is Doug too, so between me, Doug Baldwin, and Doug Martin, that would be 3.. nuff said there.
    2) Dude is a monster stud, bigger than MJD and Ray rice, and has better hands. Makes Forsett look like a shrimp. Major threat combined with Beast creates massive fear amongst DB’s.

    I ‘m just not feeling Upshaw, I hope he proves me wrong. If we go that way. Which I’m pretty sure we won’t anyways… I still see us moving up…gasp…

  41. Brandon

    It is bad enough that you have no clue of the Texans needs and think that they would actually take a player other than a WR in the first round (unless they do not resign Myers and take Konz). But you also have them taking a DT in the 2nd round?!?! you know that you only play ONE DT in a 3-4 right? Dumb

  42. Rob

    Brandon – Fletcher Cox is a 3-4 DE (five technique) who played DT at Miss. State. Josh Chapman is a nose tackle. They play different positions. Perhaps before calling someone’s opinion ‘dumb’ you might actually take that into consideration.

    Unfortunately I don’t run a Texans blog and therefore haven’t been able to watch every Houston game like other people such as yourself, and my impression was that the Texans had a depth of talent at wide receiver. You appear likely to lose Mario Williams and this seemed like a good opportunity to draft two defensive studs to keep building up Wade Phillips’ defense. If you feel that receiver is a need I will take that into consideration next time, but I’d recommend losing the attitude if you want to frequent this community.

  43. Vin

    Go find another community to bother Texan-troll!! And what makes you think that Houston ‘needs’ a WR….because all the mocks say so? I think the Seahawks ‘need’ a QB worse than the Texans ‘need’ a WR, but I dont think those who created some of these mocks are dumb because they failed to place a QB in our hands in the 1st or 2nd.

  44. ozzy

    I like your MOCK Rob, it’s been a while since I have commented, (about a year) I think B.J. Colman is very underrated and flying under the radar some. He is someone Seattle could possibly obtain in the 4th round, although I don’t think he will last that long. I also like Nicholas Jean-Baptiste a lot. When I saw him chase down Kieth Price I was very impressed. Perfect angle and very good speed for someone his size, play’s with a real sense of urgency. Underrated or what? I like Mike Martin also.
    Keep up the good work Rob, I visit daily and then some!

  45. Peter


    this is way out, but have you and the gentlemen of Fieldgulls talked at all about doing a twitter draft like you did last year? That was awesome.

    Though I would prefer Osweiler or cousins in the second, I can respect the Martin pick.

    Plus everyone needs to realize these mocks are talking points, and every week players have dropped or risen. The Hawks do need a RB who can spell Lynch next year, how many games did you see where Force or Leon can in even for one down and got nothing done. You simply can not have a series of plays that goes:

    Lynch, lynch, lynch, ….lynch, lynch, lynch…lynch, lynch, someone else…punt. Lynch’s hard style requires that he gets breaks and that when that back comes in you are at least somewhat of a threat to keep momentum going.

  46. Colin

    The thought of Ryan Tannehill at #6 is so amusing… poor Redskins. They would make that move. I wouldn’t touch that kid in the 1st round, but Snyder loves the big splash. I’m sure they’ll take a good long look at Manning as well. I find nothing about Tannehill really spectacular, doesn’t warrant a high 1st round grade IMO. Maybe a bit more polished than Osweiler but that’s it.

    If we get Upshaw at 11/12 and Osweiler I won’t be able to think straight until August.

  47. Doug

    ya really Rob,
    please don’t post anymore about the Texans until you are smarter…ok?


    The only thing I need to know about the Texans is that we are going to steal MW from them, and then they will suck even worse then they do now. And that’s why we won’t need Upshaw.

  48. Jonathan

    Rob, love your work! I’m still holding out hope that the hawks pull the trigger to move up and grab RG3. I’m not buying that the Vikes will spend the draft capital on another qb at this point. I see top 3 going something like this:

    Colts – Luck
    Rams – Kalil, or trade down (there is a lot of depth at OT in this draft, right?)
    Vikes – Kalil if the Rams trade down, otherwise attempt to trade down themselves, or take Claiborne if they are unable to.

    I know you don’t project trades, and none of us know whats going on in the heads of the GMs of these teams, but does this seem reasonable?

    Thanks for such an awesome site! Keep up the good work.

  49. Richard

    Rob, you do instigate discussion and I see your very purposeful mocks. I’m surprised that no one challenged you on the Viking pick and what it would take to sway their FO.
    We all base our thinking on 3 things; what we would like to see the team do, what we think the team will do and what they have done historically. I would love to see them move up if the costs wouldn’t be to high and JS can recover enough draft choices during the remainder of the draft to cover some of the losses to move up. I think that actually what will happen is they will trade down to get three picks between the 12th and 43rd that will get them the DE/DT, the OLB and the QB that we must have this year.
    But I do like both of the choices this week, as unlikely as the 2nd choice might be, it makes you think. The next 2 months of JS and the FA list will dictate what will happen. Good job as usual.

  50. Smeghead

    I would really like us to trade back into late first, early second from 11/12. If we can’t or really don’t want to then I think Upshaw would be great. I really don’t like Ingram and don’t like the gamble that Coples will be. I want Cousins right now more than anything though and would be ok with the Boise St back if we had 2 2nd rounders (assuming we could trade back)…

  51. jim J

    Rob – I know you do these drafts to try out some different ideas. I don’t like the idea of moving back, but I would interested in seeing your mock of moving back in the first round. I challenge you to show us how it could be good for the Hawks and what players we might get!!!!

  52. Rob

    Jake – I think when it all comes out in the wash, we’ll see why running back is so important to this team. Personally I’m a big fan of Osweiler, but this isn’t a mock based on my preference.

    Griffin – I think what we have to ask here is whether the Seahawks would be prepared to fight their draft board for a quarterback, and I’m not sure they would. A few weeks ago Cousins was considered a QB likely to go in the round 4-6 range. There’s every chance teams will view him as a R 3-5 type of player ever now. A high second round pick would be a significant reach even to fill such a need, and may promote a guy like Cousins as someone a front office think ‘could’ make it into someone who ‘should’. So they have to keep that in mind. In terms of running backs, it’s such a fantastic year in round two for the position and the importance of the RB to Seattle could be emphasised by a good match here. Doug Martin is a legitimate R2 player for me, so is Miller, Polk and Wilson. An early pick on a running back is a realistic prospect.

    Derek – Mercilus I will do a write up on very soon. I’m still trying to work the guy out because production wise he’s fantastic. The tape doesn’t flash any obvious justification for it though, so I need to work out whether it translates. But he is someone I need to do more homework on. He looked very good against UCLA.

    Vandehawk – It’s a good shout if they don’t go RB in round two. I expect rather than a natural ‘change of pace’ type they may consider a more physical runner to compliment Lynch – but I have nothing to back that up.

    Tarry – Just the physical running style and the ability to make yards after contact. Martin is a really underrated player. There will be tape on the blog tomorrow. Poole another good shout here and it goes to show there is depth at the position. But even so, running back in round two isn’t completely unrealistic I’m led to believe.

    Dave Crockett – I love it Dave! Sometimes I feel like an android after a long day at work. I think I’ve just separated by own preference here to perhaps what I’m led to believe is more realistic having spoken to different people over the last two weeks. Regular visitors know how badly I think this team needs to buy into a new quarterback.

    Ozzy – thanks for the kind words and great to have you on board.

    Peter – I’m sure we can put something together.

    Jonathan – Thanks man and thank you for visiting.

  53. Rob

    Jim J – It’s something I’ll cover later on in the process. Moving down is a possibility if the board falls a certain way. Moving down in round two is likewise a realistic proposition.

  54. Tarry

    Thanks Dave,

    I’m looking through RBs for my next post and he looked good on film, there are a few others that look good that are projected late as well. I appreciate the insight on Poole.

  55. Mike J

    Finally, a mocker with enough sense not to put Blackmon in the top5!! But I don’t think there is any way Polk will go before Martin at RB.
    I am also dubious that Jeffery will last until #39.
    Thanks for the effort!!

  56. Tarry

    Thanks Rob, I agree this is a deeper year for RBs than I initally thought, started looking at film for my next post and there are some good backs to be found later.

    Curious, if Chris Polk is there at #43 do you take him or you think Martin fits us better?

  57. Darnell

    Jake you mention Chris Ivory being a FA. I love the idea of getting Ivory. But I’ve been looking for his contract status and couldn’t find anything, do we know for sure he is a FA?

  58. Griffin


    In regards to where the most value is in this draft it seems to me like they might have trouble trading back in the first (and they may not want to based upon certain players making it to the 12th spot (upshaw?)).
    With that said, we know that they want more picks for this draft (they like to have more than 7 picks and they have 6 (I think)) so what do you think about the 2nd round? It seems to me like they will be looking to take advantage of a potential sellers market for trading back in the second round.
    -I think they will do this unless someone falls to them that they can’t pass up…but who that might be I have no idea.

    Your thoughts?

  59. Rob

    Tarry – I think Martin fits better. The concept of TB/Polk was just me trying to second guess Schiano and the type of back he’d prefer. But I could easily see Martin sneaking into the back end of round one.

    Griffin – I think that’s a very realistic proposition. As you say, they may consider the value at #11 or #12 to be greater than any possible trade on offer. Yet in round two, I could see a logical move down the board perhaps to accumulate more picks. The success they’ve had in that R4-7 range so far dictates that they’d find extra picks useful. At the same time, I really like the value at the top of round two so it’s a difficult one to judge.

  60. Michael (CLT)

    Man, I hope I am wrong about Upshaw. The love for Upshaw is based on size, and ability to win one-on-one when down and distance provide a mismatch. I have provided details of all of Upshaw’s 2012 sacks below. Alabama played from such a competitive advantage, and there are so many other guys getting sacks in the same game… couple that with a horrific run of QB play at Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kent State, LSU, Florida, and Auburn… and ghesh… I don’t get it.

    A RB in the 2nd round makes Washington and Lynch moot. Difference makers in rounds one and two, not depth.

    Total AL Sacks Sack QTR Score Down and Dist Play Description
    4 Total Sacks QTR 1 14-0 1st and 10 at KENT 21 Spencer Keith sacked by DeQuan Menzie and Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 13.
    4 Total Sacks QTR 2 24-10 3rd and 20 at ALA 25 John Brantley sacked by Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 35.
    5 Total Sacks QTR 3 31-7 1st and 10 at MISS 21 Randall Mackey sacked by Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 6 yards, fumbled, forced by Courtney Upshaw, recovered by Alab Ed Stinson at the Miss 15.
    5 Total Sacks QTR 3 38-7 2nd and 12 at MISS 12 Randall Mackey sacked by Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 3.
    Unknown QTR ? 37-6 No play by play. He sacked Matt Simms… which is like breathing air
    2 Total Sacks QTR 3 3-3 3rd and 9 at LSU 33 Jordan Jefferson sacked by Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 30.
    5 Total Sacks QTR 1 0-0 2nd and 7 at ALA 48 Chris Relf sacked by Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 45.
    3 Total Sacks QTR 2 21-7 3rd and 4 at AUB 26 Kiehl Frazier sacked by Courtney Upshaw and Jesse Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 20.
    4 Total Sacks QTR 3 12-0 2nd and 8 at LSU 45 Jordan Jefferson sacked by Courtney Upshaw for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 40.

  61. Rob

    Can a second running back not be a difference maker, Michael? Especially given that it will help the Seahawks avoid running Lynch into the ground?

  62. Michael (CLT)

    Perhaps. I respect and understand your rational. However, IF Lynch is resigned to, say, a three year deal, Martin wastes away. RB and OLB are fungible. We need a differenitator at QB, DE, OG. Someone who starts immediately. That is what I’m looking for in the two top 50 picks.

    Upshaw may be great, but what do you do with Clemons, or KJ? KJ was showing some serious pop, length, and quicks towards the end of the year. His coverage skills will only improve.

    Martin may flash, but we run a zone scheme. I want Arian Foster as an UDFA to grow into Lynch’s backup role. (BTW, that Poole kid from Tennessee looked damn good).

    So, yes, Martin “Could” be a difference maker. But he won’t see the field to do so. Thus, a wasted pick.

  63. Sean K

    Redskins pick Ryan Tannehill over Justin Blackmon…… really now? -_-

  64. Jordan

    Yeah Justin Blackmon not going past the panthers the jaguars redskins and the browns… get real

  65. Jim j

    Rotating with A second running back is normal in the NFL. We would have four on 2011 if they had all performed – but they didn’t . We know Pete will get another rb – it’s just a question of what round. I would like Pead in the third as a quick change of pace back and punt returner.

    I would really like to have 1 and 2 round both defense. We need the quality backups.

  66. Rob

    Sean K – I think Shanahan has seen too many false dawns at quarterback and will make sure he gets his guy this time. Locker going to Tennessee was a sucker punch, they can’t risk waiting around this time. They may move down a few spots, but ultimately if they don’t add a big name QB in free agency I expect to see Tannehill in Washington.

    Jordan – I’ve written many articles explaining why Blackmon might not go as high as everyone thinks. Carolina’s greatest need is interior defensive line, and it’s not close. That defense held back the Panthers last year and will do again without serious investment. Plus the depth at receiver makes it a viable option at the top of round two. The Browns won’t draft Blackmon, Jacksonville WILL address receiver in free agency I assure you of that and Washington, as mentioned above, will very likely go quarterback. I was torn to have Blackmon fall further in fairness.

  67. Tarry

    Teams are moving to a more 2 back system like the Giants and Panters or a 3 back system like the Saints. I really do think that another back is important for us… not for depth but for another weapon. Washington would be our depth at RB.

    Rob, about Blackmon falling. There is no better player Seattle could have fall than him, not to draft, but to trade up for. If he gets past the Skins, Jags, Dolphins and Bills, I think teams will be calling to trade up for him… Jets, Bengals and Bears to name a few. The Bills are the team I worry about, they have much bigger needs on D, but if they lose Johnson (which I expect them to), they’ll need a replacement (and another WR) and he’ll be tough to pass on. They invested a lot in Fitzpatrick and need to surround him with weapons to succeed.

  68. Colin

    Arian Foster is not coming to Seattle for a backup role. The guy is either get a top dollar offer from another club or Houston ponies up the franchise tag or long term deal.

    Michael CLT, I don’t know how drafting Martin with Lynch here would be a “wasted pick”. The Niners picked up Kendall Hunter and he was/is a pretty good asset for them, even though Frank Gore is the primary guy. I wouldn’t call that a wasted pick.

    And as far as Upshaw not being a difference maker, ya gotta go look at more than sacks. The number of times they ran a pitch or a reverse his way and he shed the block and made the tackle is mind boggling. The guy has a nose for the ball. Hard to block, hard to fool, impossible to remove from a play. I’m enamored with what he offers.

  69. Rob

    Completely agree, Colin.

  70. Jarhead

    This is a pretty solid mock, very insightful. I certainly would be disappointed in missing on QB in the second round, but as Rob states- Schneider and Carroll have their own POV’s. I certainly would take Osweiler there, and if we are able to nab him, the rest of the draft is gravy. What alarms me is all this out-of-the-blue honking for cousins. The guy has never played at an elite level in ANY big game- save for one miracle hail mary throw against Wisconsin. He has no elite attributes other than character. But sorry, I don’t want a quarterback who can ‘character’ the opposing defense into submission. I want some real elite potential and upside. Cousins reminds me so much of journeymen like Matt Moore and Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is essentially no bigger upgrade than Matt Flynn would be- and I detest the idea of Matt Flynn signing with Seattle more than any other single thing that could happen this offseason. I think Osweiler with his size, mobility, arm strength and guts is the perfect fit for the Seahawks. I don’t want to settle on Cousins, I want to shoot for Osweiler

  71. SHawn

    “The love for Upshaw is based on size, and ability to win one-on-one when down and distance provide a mismatch.”

    But not just that, as Colin points out, his nose for the ball and uncanny ability to shed blocks and make tackles for loss is what sets him apart.

    As for what we do with Clem, we put him in Brock’s old role as a situational rusher. I am starting to believe Pete wants Upshaw as an every down lineman, not as a WILL candidate. He is not an ideal fit for the LEO position, but with his instincts he could pass Clem on the depth chart during training camp and the preseason. Clem had 11 sacks in each of the last two years, but how many times has he tackled a RB for a loss? He is on the wrong side of 30 for this team, will start to slow down soon, and doesn’t have the nose for the ball that Upshaw seems to have.

    Spence or Ronnell Lewis in the 2nd, or Keenan Robinson or Tyler Nielson in the 3rd or 4th could plug the WILL for us. We also need a 3 tech if we can get one. Worthy or Reyes in the 2nd, or Forston or Harris in the 3rd/4th could fill that need.

    1 Upshaw DE
    2 Lewis OLB
    3 Cousins QB
    4 Forston DT
    5 Kelemete OG / Gray RB

    I would go put down my season ticket deposit the next day if our draft went like that. I cant wait for free agency to begin so we can start narrowing down our needs for the later rds. If we pick up a bruising RB (or really any of our other needs) then we have NO need to draft one, and would likely pick up another OL instead. If we dont, we can wait for a third or fourth tier guy in the 5th. Which kind of makes me sad since I am big fan of Polk.

  72. Colin

    I think if you draft Upshaw, you plug him in at that WLB spot and move him to DE in pass rush situations. Starting him at the LEO spot would just limit his capabilities, IMO.

  73. SHawn

    If he can prove he has the same knack for shedding offensive linemen at the next level, I believe he could succeed at either spot. But he might end up being too slow to play LB in Pete’s system. Maybe that’s something PC will give up and scheme around in order to get another playmaker on defense.

    Also, I think he could be better than Clemons on the weak side, with better instincts and tackling ability, and not giving up much, if anything, in pass rush ability (already a better bull rusher than Clem). Not really a LEO, more of a traditional 4-3 DE, but could handle LEO responsibilities, which is basically just rushing the passer and sniffing out screens.

    His only weakness (and it could be worked on), is his coverage skills. He would be asked more of that starting at WILL than at DE, so putting him at WILL would limit his capabilities, IMO. At least at first, until he gets better at coverage.

  74. SHawn

    Wherever he would be put, I think he would be an upgrade over Leroy or Clem.

  75. Matt J

    According to Draftinsider Polk is taking a big slide, and won’t be seen in the 2nd round at all — perhaps not until the last day. http://www.draftinsider.net/blog/?p=6104

  76. Rob

    Yeah I read the article Matt. I don’t take much out of the Senior Bowl performance and Polk looked like a borderline 1/2 during the season. I have to stick to the tape having not had a meeting with the guy.

  77. Earl

    I’d have to think that if Osweiler was there in the second then they’d take him without thinking twice. Maybe look RB in the third.

  78. Norm M

    Rob- What current NFL player does Upshaw remind you of? I always like to compare styles of draft picks to players currently in the NFL and I’m having a hard time with Upshaw. Not a real speed guys, strong but not a traditional power guy either. I would say his motor and instincts are what puts him in the top of the draft class but can’t quite figure him out. Thanks for any thought

  79. Michael (CLT)

    Upshaw’s upside reminds me of Lawrence Jackson. Great recognition skill, good strength, no real pass skills. I realize I’m not a popular guy for disagreeing. I prefer Coples upside. I’d rather bust with greatness than be middling with safe.

  80. Rob

    I don’t see the Lawrence Jackson comparison personally, Michael. Recognition skills were never a consideration for Jackson given he was a pure end joining an orthodox 4-3 team. He was a copycat style draft pick with the Giants having success with Justin Tuck. Upshaw looks completely different on the field, physically as well – and they would play different roles in Seattle.

  81. Misfit74

    Quick question about the Rams pick(s): with Saffold and Jason Smith, why do they take an OT? Aren’t there bigger needs than OT for STL?

  82. jjm

    Rob, what’s your take on Zack Brown ? I know he is a freak athete but what about his instincts and on field play. Does he fill a need on the hawks?

  83. Rob

    Misfit – I think there maybe are bigger needs, but OL is still a huge need. Kalil is that good, so it’s hard to see them passing.

    JJM – Like him a lot. He’s a very realistic option for Seattle and does fill a need. He’ll be on the team’s radar.

© 2024 Seahawks Draft Blog

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑