This is the defense we’ve been waiting for years to see.
Physical, smothering, capable of shutting down NFC West foes. It’s been a three-week run that makes you believe this unit is heading in the right direction.
Clearly shifting out Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson has had a major impact. Aside from that though, everything just feels far more connected.
In a game like this it would’ve been easy to commit to taking away the inside run with James Conner, leaving Kyler Murray opportunities to break contain and run for a ton of yards. They were able to restrict and limit Murray while also making Conner a non-factor in the game. That’s impressive.
Tre McBride collected yards but Arizona never felt truly threatening. Meanwhile, the pass-rush created havoc up front. This was about as comprehensive and impressive performance as we’ve seen in years by the defense.
Leonard Williams led the way with an incredible effort. How often do you see a defensive linemen with his size recording 2.5 sacks, three TFL’s, a pass deflection and four quarterback hits? It’s the best individual display by a Seahawks defender since Jadeveon Clowney wrecked the 49ers in 2019.
Williams had a sack rushing the edge, he consistently shot gaps in the interior and he overpowered Arizona’s guards and center multiple times.
Devon Witherspoon had a strong outing — including the key play to force Murray to throw an interception to Coby Bryant leading to a pick-six. Julian Love was excellent. The linebackers again played a solid, efficient game.
This is a defense you can believe in again and look forward to watching. Kudos to the team for making the necessary changes to turn the corner. They’ve gone from hopeless to highly effective during the season. If they keep this up, they’ll have a chance to win the NFC West.
As the defense progresses though, the offense sadly is regressing. It was painful watching the Seahawks try to run the ball today. There’s no movement up front. Geno Smith seemed to mix between having no time to throw thanks to the O-line or occasionally he took too long to get the ball out. Either way it led to pressure. Smith’s interception was a big error that almost turned the game — and there’s no getting away from the fact that he continues to mix between the sublime and the ridiculous in another seasons of contrasting highs and lows.
The big positive was Jaxon Smith-Njigba who continues to shine as he enjoys a breakout second season. It was also another good outing for Abe Lucas. Yet I can’t help but feel this offense isn’t what Macdonald wants. The O-line might be influencing a lot of their play calls but you don’t appoint a Harbaugh protégé to be throwing the ball in the rain with a handsome lead in the fourth quarter. I’m not convinced Macdonald and Ryan Grubb are that aligned right now and the offense often jumps between dysfunctional and broken and suddenly explosive and productive. You don’t need Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson to run the ball either — and they’re not finding solutions.
Don’t just take my word for it:
For a former OL Coach I’ve been really surprised at Ryan Grubb’s inability to adjust & call plays that protect that group. No boots, no movement of the pocket, minimal play action, very little creativity in the run game.
Make the OL job’s easier. That’s duty 1 of an NFL OC
Some will argue time will be a healer but I’m already starting to think Macdonald might want a different approach next year.
That’s a bigger conversation for another time. Today the defense deserves the bulk of the attention and the Seahawks will head to New York next week with an excellent chance of extending their winning run to three games.
Check. A slump-busting win against a rival turned the Seahawks’ season from a potential spiraling disaster into something more promising. Not to mention it banged the Niners around a bit.
Figure Out A Way to Improve the Offensive Line
Something must give with the three interior players though. What is it? A midnight cut? A very public in-game benching of an underperforming player that shocks the rest of the unit into performing?
Check. The stunning retirement of Connor Williams paved the way for an outstanding start by Olu Oluwatimi. An 80 PFF grade was just what the Seahawks needed.
As was a return to the game by Abe Lucas. He played the bulk of the snaps and was effective in his first game back. Even better, he appears to be ready to assume the position full-time from here on out.
It was an impressive display. But the season has not turned just yet. One goal remains.
Put Together Back-to-Back Solid Efforts
Now this will take some work.
After a brilliant game against Atlanta, the Seahawks returned home against the Bills and were flat in a brutal loss.
A loss to the Rams that was doomed by turnovers was followed up with a gritty, physical win in San Francisco.
The organization that has been so inconsistent, so dodgy for the first half of the season has a real chance to show what has been going on behind the scenes this week. Proof that they are building a cohesive team with a real vision would be more readily accepted with a win against the Cardinals today.
This game sets up very interestingly for them. Arizona has some similarities to the Falcons team the Seahawks handled in Week seven. They have a dynamic running game featuring explosive runners, they have talent at the Tight End and Wide Receiver positions and on defense they are one of the NFL’s worst at pressuring the passer.
The way the game against Atlanta played out would be a great model for this game:
— No turnovers and only five penalties
— On defense, contain the running game early and force a couple of punts – do NOT let the opponent’s running game take the pace of the game over
— On offense, mix the run and pass and build an early lead to take them out of their game
— Unleash the defense when the Cardinals get desperate and abandon the running game
Is that doable against Arizona? Yes. Washington did it against them in Week Four. They ran the ball 37 times and Jayden Daniels had a very Geno Smith-esque game, throwing 30 times with 26 completions for 233 yards. They built a 17-7 halftime lead (just like Seattle did against Atlanta) and then poured on the gas in the second half. The Cardinals were only able to get eight meaningful run snaps in the second half as the Commanders took a big lead. Kyler Murray was sacked four times and was unable to make many of his signature explosive plays.
So how does Seattle turn in that kind of game?
Contain Arizona’s Offensive Weapons
James Conner’s name is never mentioned when fans talk about the top Running Backs in the NFL. He is not among the top-10 Running Backs in attempts, yards, or touchdowns.
But believe me when I say he is the engine that makes the Cardinal offense go. How? He moves the chains.
Conner has 47 first downs so far this season on only 159 attempts. He and David Montgomery of the Lions are the most efficient runners in the NFL, gaining first downs on 29% of their rushes, far and away the top two. He is both Kyler Murray’s tone-setter and his safety valve when his targets downfield are covered.
How does he do it? With toughness and tenacity. Conner is the NFL’s leading tackle-breaker. He will not go down. You have to take him down.
Watch him shirking off tackles to get 33 yards and essentially win the game for Arizona in Week Seven:
James Conner with a season-saving play. Breaks two crucial tackles for a 33 yard gain to setup the game-winning field goal.
You must have a tackling plan for Conner. Otherwise, the Cardinals will just keep giving him the ball and keep chewing the clock.
Thankfully the Seahawks have Earnest Jones and Tyrice Knight coming off extremely solid performances against Christian McCaffrey. In the past, McCaffrey had broken tackles at will against the Seahawks. Last Sunday, he could not.
Again, we are talking about consistency. Sunday was a great game against San Francisco. But the defense has to buckle their chinstraps and do it all over again this week.
Defending Conner well is a huge part of making this game a successful one for the Seahawks. Four of his five lowest-impact games this season have been Cardinals losses.
Conner keeps the Cardinal defense off the field. They are not the strength of this team at all. If he keeps eating away at the clock, opposing offenses have less time to strike.
Trey McBride has blossomed into one of the best Tight End threats in the NFL. He currently is in the top-five for many categories in his position and Arizona will use his athletic talents liberally to move the ball downfield.
Arizona deploys McBride not unlike how San Francisco does with George Kittle. He has a basic set of routes to run – your standard six yards and turn and show your number to the Quarterback kind of stuff. But he frequently is schemed open very effectively, in a ‘how did that guy get so wide open?’ kind of way.
Have a look at :32 of this video Nate Tice has put together:
Trey McBride continues to ascend to one of the best TEs in the NFL with another big day against the Dolphins. He's the complete package as a pass catcher. Hands, body control, route running, and some juice after the catch. pic.twitter.com/qfk5MKSeA9
McBride starts on the right side of the line, moves to his left as the whole Offensive Line does and as Kyler Murray breaks to his right in a misdirection move, watch McBride. He’s sneaking left across the defense (with his head even down not to attract attention) and then sprints into the open flat and Murray reverses course and hits him for a big gain topped off with a hurdle.
How do you defend that? By following the ‘Kittle Rules’ we have talked about in previous posts. When the offense breaks huddle, every safety and every linebacker needs to spot #85. And if he is lined up tight against the Offensive Line, the man over him absolutely cannot give him a free release. Chip him, get in his way, whatever it takes to disrupt his route. If you can do that even a little, he will not be able to get into a rhythm with Kyler Murray and that means more punts.
As for Kyler Murray — he has come full circle back to being a dynamic weapon on offense, with some fabulous plays with his arm and his feet this season. How can the Seahawks effectively defend him?
This year, Murray has been so successful with a combination of McBride and Conner, his first read is usually open. In the past, if his first read was unavailable, he would either take off running or scramble around to uncover another receiver. This year, it happens so infrequently at times he is hesitant and it has cost him.
If the Seahawks can chip McBride like we showed above, or have an eye on him at all times to show Murray he is not wide open when that sneaky scheme they like to run is called, it takes the edge off his game and forces him to make decisions.
With such good first read options, a delayed blitz will only be effective in small doses that are timed very well. That does not mean they should never blitz though.
This year, when blitzed, Murray is completing 54.4% of his throws. When facing standard sets, he is completing 74%. That disparity is too big not to take advantage of.
What I am proposing is a combination of blitzing up the middle and coaching the edge players like Boye Mafe and Derick Hall to keep contain on those plays. Do not get too far upfield, or cut too far inside, leaving a whole side of the field for Murray to escape to.
No. Let the blitz come up the middle from Ernest Jones or Devon Witherspoon and when Murray sidesteps it, the edges will be there to clean the play up.
With the poor pass rush ability of the Cardinal defense and the Seahawks (and especially Geno Smith) no doubt will be riding a wave of confidence coming off a big win. If the Seattle defense can pull off one or more of these containments on the Cardinal offense, it could be a very successful day.
Some Offensive Notes
— The Cardinals are #31 in the NFL on third down conversions allowed on defense, at a whopping 47.97%. In away games? Dead last, conceding 57.45%. Fifty-seven percent! The Seahawks must take advantage.
— At that rate, how are they not regularly getting blown out? They are the #9 defense in the Red Zone. The Seattle offense is #16 in Red Zone scoring. Feels like Ken Walker, AJ Barner, Zach Charbonnet and (maybe) Noah Fant will need to make their presence felt in the Red Zone to keep the pressure on the Cardinal offense.
— The Cardinals might be D.K. Metcalf’s toughest opponent. In nine games he has only two touchdowns and has not broken the 60-yard barrier in receiving yards. None of us would mind if he had a big game today.
— Arizona’s pass rush is nothing to fear. They are bottom-10 in pressure rate and sacks. They also rarely blitz, preferring to rush four and drop everyone else in coverage. Geno Smith’s challenge will likely be different this week – reading the defense and finding the passing lanes instead of running for his life. It might take a little getting used to. But once Smith gets in rhythm, watch out. Perhaps the Seahawks can assist that a bit with some short early throws.
— Quarterbacks are completing 73.9% of their passes when they line up under center against Arizona. They may have a plan to flood coverage but it would appear you can open up lanes by drawing the linebackers in with an effective running game and play-action.
— I know PFF isn’t the gold standard but look at Arizona’s interior defensive linemen with the most snaps this year and their grades — old friend L.J.Collier (46.9), Dante Stills (54.3) and Roy Lopez (51.8). I do not think there will be a better matchup for Laken, Olu and Bradford this season. Make the most of it, fellas.
I wasn’t even aware that Texas’ Jahdae Barron was draft eligible. What a mistake. I watched the Arkansas game at the weekend and thought, not for the first time this year, ‘this guy will be a high pick one day’. I searched his name and saw he wasn’t jut eligible, he was a Senior.
I’ve watched all of Texas’ games this year and he has consistently stood out. He is legitimately one of the most fun players to watch in college football. You can’t block him with receivers and run stretch plays to the outside or throw receiver screens. He will get off the block and hit the ball-carrier with a real punch. Barron flies around the field and plays with the intensity and aggression usually reserved for bigger linebackers. You match this with his ability in coverage, his obvious awareness on the field and his ball skills and you’re talking about a fascinating player.
You can move him around in different spots but I think his best position will ultimately be as a hybrid. He’s played 377 snaps at cornerback, 79 in the slot, 12 at free safety, 86 in the box and six on the line this season. I think some teams will compare him to Devin Witherspoon both in playing style and talent. I’m not sure he’ll end up going sixth overall but I wouldn’t be surprised if he enjoys a similar rise through the draft process.
The thing that stands out frequently is his ability to come up to the line and play the run with aggression. He’s able to get off blocks and hit. Barron only has four missed tackles all season — not bad for a 5-11, 200lbs defensive back who isn’t just lined up at outside corner. He’s very physical for his size.
He has four interceptions and five PBU’s in 2024, with ample opportunity to collect more with Texas expected to make the playoffs. You can see he plays with great instinct and football IQ to execute the scheme. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time. As a corner there are very few concerns about his transition which adds to the promise he’ll show if you want to use him in complex coverage situations, misdirect or even just play him at corner if needs be. His balls skills are excellent.
The final positive is the way he speaks and commands himself. Team mates rave about his attitude and leadership. He’s a very mature, well spoken, driven individual.
I’ve added him immediately to the horizontal board as a player I’d take in round one. I also think he could be an option for the Seahawks.
We can all agree that the offensive line should be a priority in the off-season. However, in recent years the Seahawks under John Schneider have adopted a very clear approach to the draft. They’ve stuck to their board and taken best player available. They haven’t reached for specific positions.
Look at this year. All the late buzz was about Seattle potentially drafting a cornerback in round one — Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold. The feeling was Byron Murphy wouldn’t last to the 16th pick. If he was off the board, the chatter pre-draft was that the Seahawks might go cornerback instead. After the draft Schneider even made reference to how good the two cornerbacks were.
There’s nothing to suggest they’ll deviate from this approach in 2025. As of today, I don’t think they’ll force an O-line pick early if the value doesn’t match up with their board. It’s possible a player like Alabama left guard Tyler Booker ticks a value and need box. If they see him as more of a day-two pick, like some do, they will potentially just keep drafting best player available.
In this draft class, it could be another defender. Malaki Starks will be off the board if they pick where they are currently slated to pick at #16. Barron could be a strong alternative. He’s played a lot of college football, he has excellent tape, he has A+ character, he’s physical, he’s versatile and he can be used in a number of ways by Mike Macdonald.
When I think of the type of personality the Seahawks like to draft, it’s Jahdae Barron. His interviews are all-time. Watch this and you’ll see what I mean:
For what it’s worth, he mentioned he trained with Quandre Diggs over the summer and that he grew up looking up to him. He says that he attended Texas vs West Virginia when Geno Smith was quarterback for WVU and that he ‘got Geno’s towel’ from the game.
Jahdae Barron is definitely a name to keep an eye on.
Defensive linemen also catch the eye
I’ve had another Texas player, Alfred Collins, on my radar for two seasons. Last year I started the year giving him a tentative mid-round grade but he was outplayed by Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat and struggled to make an impact. The talent and upside has always been there and he’s showing it in recent weeks. His play has elevated, he looks athletic and dynamic and he’s playing with great effort. It’s always been there for Collins and he has every chance to be a day-two pick in the 2025 class.
Nebraska’s Ty Robinson is a player I finally had a chance to study last week and I really like his combination of size, power, quickness and disruptive ability. To me he looks like a player who might have a few hidden special traits that’ll emerge at the combine. It’s easy to picture him impacting the NFL and with his frame and size — don’t be surprised if he ends up being a riser in the pre-draft process.
It’s very difficult to get Marshall tape to watch Mike Green. I’ve been looking for clips for weeks and have been able to piece things together. He’s so quick off the edge and shows some dynamism as a rusher. Hopefully he goes to the Senior Bowl so we can see how he gets on in the 1v1’s. Based on the pass rush flashes he’s shown, round two feels like a very reasonable grade.
Finally, Ole Miss duo Jared Ivey and Princely Umanmielen quite often leave you wanting more. However, against Georgia they caused constant problems. A strong end to the season for both could put them in a great position to enhance their draft stock.
Bring on Ohio State vs Indiana
I can’t wait to watch Kurtis Rourke in this game. He’s an intriguing player who is quite difficult to project for the next level. Delivering a strong performance against the Buckeyes’ big-name defense will be a statement.
Plays like this against Michigan are why he’s interesting:
The player right in his face is future top-five pick Mason Graham. Rourke stands tall under pressure and lofts this ball perfectly downfield without ideal base. This is a 45-yard touch pass with a brilliant defensive lineman coming after you. Teams will notice plays like this.
Meanwhile, I thought Will Howard had one of his better performances against Northwestern — although he’s still too inconsistent and streaky to really believe he can be a factor in the NFL as a starter. Even so, this could be another opportunity, as he had against Oregon, to win a big game.
Throws like this show that he’s a very capable passer:
Howard just has this tendency to produce face-palm moments at any second, undermining the great combination of size and athleticism he has.
Garrett Nussmeier should return to LSU next year but…
I thought he played well against Florida and the blame really needs to go to the rest of his offense for a bad loss. He was pressured 20 times and sacked seven times as the offensive line laid another egg. It’s the fourth time this year he’s faced 16+ pressures in a game. There were also four dropped passes — a season high for LSU. He had a touchdown pass called back on an avoidable offensive pass interference call. Late in the game, trailing by seven points, he converted two ‘must have’ fourth downs, getting into a goal-to-go situation. Then a false start backed him up, the coordinator called a run on 2nd and 12 and gave him a near impossible conversion situation on 3rd and 12. He got no help.
Look at this throw from the game:
SCORE UPDATE
The Tigers get on the board as Garrett Nussmeier finds Aaron Anderson for the touchdown!
This is why he is so highly rated. There are so few college quarterbacks capable of delivering that play. His technical quality, accuracy, ability to handle adversity and throw with anticipation and timing is fantastic. He has thrown more NFL-level passes than any other quarterback in college football this year. Unsurprisingly, he’s also thrown some bad interceptions and made some mistakes. Let’s not forget this is his first season as a starting QB.
Having waited so long to start at LSU, we’ll see if he decides it’s time to turn pro. If he does, I think he’ll go in round one because the potential is there to be a very accomplished quarterback. However, he will really benefit from more playing time.
You want your players to play in attack mode at two positions
I mentioned this on my stream with Jeff Simmons on Tuesday. Every year I try and learn as much as I can about how people in the league scout. I’m lucky enough to be able to pick the brains of some people and when I asked about scouting centers earlier this year, I was told to look for players who shoot their hands quickly and set to be the aggressor from the snap. It’s one of the reasons I thought Olu Oluwatimi’s performance against San Francisco was so encouraging as he was most certainly playing this way on Sunday.
That said, it’s not easy to find a college center who consistently plays with this attitude. There are a lot of passive players who will absorb blocks and look to do just enough. It can be even worse at linebacker. This is another position where you want to see an attacking mindset. You want to see a prospect who can identify a play, then fly to the ball. Ideally they can work through traffic, sprint to the sideline, drop into coverage and disengage from blocks. A high degree of quickness, agility and explosion is preferable. But more than anything you want to see violence — and that comes with your approach. Not just how you connect in the tackle when a ball carrier runs into your area.
Carson Schwesinger at UCLA plays in attack mode. I watched the game against Minnesota to check on Max Brosmer and came away highly impressed with the Bruins linebacker who made his life a misery. I wanted to watch more, absorbed two other games and he is extremely impressive. He flies to fill gaps and penetrate at the line. There’s ample evidence of him dropping in coverage with ease — but he can also adjust when a quarterback steps up and tries to scramble, flying to make the tackle. He avoids blocks well with shiftiness at the POA and diagnoses plays better than any other linebacker I’ve watched so far this year, including arguably Jalon Walker.
He doesn’t appear to have any athletic limitations or stiffness. Schwesinger is a capable rusher when sent to the QB and has been able to power through blocks by running backs and tight ends. The way he dropped for his mid-range interception against Iowa is teaching tape for linebackers in that situation. He had a second pick in the game — a really athletic play plucking the football after a full dive right as it was about to hit the turf.
Testing results will be big for him but at the moment I’m giving him a tentative second round grade. He looks tailor made to be a starter in the NFL.
Quick-hitters
— Every time I watch Harold Fanin Jr I get more excited. He has a chance to be the next big-time pass-catching tight end in the league. He’s a very exciting receiving threat and if he tests well, I wouldn’t be that surprised if he sneaks into the back-end of round one in this draft class.
— Georgia left guard Dylan Fairchild looked as good as he has all year against Ole Miss and Tennessee. I like his size, mobility, ability to adjust to regain position and he can control blocks. However, you don’t see a lot of big-time power at the point of attack and you’d like to see more. I think he can get stronger but will need to at the next level to be a top player.
— Travis Hunter’s all-round performance vs Utah (a pick off a tip, a highlight-reel spectacular catch and a miraculous rushing touchdown) all but puts a bow on him being a top-two pick in this draft. I think the only person who could stop him going first overall is Mason Graham.
— Carson Beck got a lot of positive attention for his performance against Tennessee but with the exception of a couple of great throws, I still think the same issues showed up on tape. His ball placement is way off. He isn’t very accurate. He almost had another terrible interception in the red zone when trailing 17-14. I don’t think he’s rebuilding his stock and I think all this year has shown is that the Raiders got an absolute steal with Brock Bowers — a player who had no business lasting to the 13th overall pick.
— Regulars will know how much I rate Ricky White the receiver at UNLV. The fact he has now blocked four kicks this year just adds to how appealing he is. He can be a special teams ace right away and eventually work into a dynamic receiving threat.
— I was impressed with Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles against Northwestern. He’s doing a much better job letting the play develop and then attacking with decisiveness and you can see he’s settling into his position switch from safety. If he keeps playing like he did on Saturday, he has a chance to go earlier than I initially projected as a late round pick.
— Speaking of linebackers, I think Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell is playing at a level where he could easily end up in the top-25. His play just continues to grow game after game. I also had a chance to watch some more of Ole Miss’ Chris Paul Jr this week. I really like the way he works to the sideline, plays with great effort, can sift through traffic and has the attack mode I spoke about earlier. Paul Jr can also drop with relative ease and I’ve decided to give him a tentative third round grade, up from the fourth round mark I originally gave him.
The Geno Smith discourse is impacting my enjoyment of this football season.
Some of you will think this is mad. Others will agree, perhaps silently. I’ll try and explain what I mean.
Immediately after the 49ers win, it started.
If you think Smith is elite, a franchise quarterback, ‘the guy‘, ‘him‘, worthy of a massive extension at the soonest possible moment or something else along these lines, congratulations. You officially “know ball“.
It’s also, it seems, really important that you make everyone else who may not entirely share your argument know that they are idiots.
Just ignore it, you might say. There’s no escape from it. People you follow on social media will dabble in this. Or they’ll retweet people who do. You may not wish to unfollow them. Or, you’ll have likeminded folk who share your view send you the occasional screen grab so you can participate in a collective eye roll.
It’s not just one group. When Smith has a bad game, there’s a similar amount of nonsense from the other extreme side of the debate. You’ll get people saying he’s no good, needs to be replaced ASAP, send Sam Howell in for the next game etc.
Every game is just one big toxic opportunity to have it out about Seattle’s quarterback on the internet.
Please, stop.
I’m not claiming to speak for the majority. I do think I speak for a reasonable portion of the fan base though, who fit somewhere between the two extremes on Smith, when I say I am well and truly bored to death by this.
Whether you like it or not, Smith’s future is going to be a storyline for the next off-season. How the rest of this season plays out will determine what eventually happens — but the debate isn’t going anywhere. And neither should it, as we’ll talk about in a bit.
Also whether you like it or not, Smith is clearly a net positive for the Seahawks in 2024. He is far better than Howell and until an obviously superior alternative emerges, there’s a very reasonable chance he will continue to be Seattle’s starter indefinitely.
The sooner we just accept both of these things the better. So much energy is being channeled in a tit-for-tat online battle on this subject and it’s taking a lot of joy out of wins like yesterday. I know I’m not alone in thinking this because several people have said the same thing to me privately — and I suspect others will say the same in the comments section in response to this article.
Personally I think Smith has played mostly very well this year. He’s faced a high degree of adversity because of the poor play of the offensive line and a non-existent running attack. The Seahawks rely a ton on their quarterback in their current form.
Physically he’s extremely impressive, particular for a player who recently turned 34. His arm strength combined with his willingness to attempt throws many quarterbacks wouldn’t dare to attempt makes for an often entertaining outcome, win or lose. There are throws over the last three years from Smith that are legitimately as good as anything you’ll see in the NFL.
There are also moments of erraticism. We saw it with the interception on Sunday. He is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL this year. Some clearly haven’t been his fault but he’s also recorded 11 turnover worthy plays in his last eight games per PFF. He does feel like a player who will give an opponent a decent shot at a turnover per game.
From about six games into the 2022 season, I’ve consistently said I’m perfectly happy with Geno Smith being Seattle’s starter until a clear, superior option comes along. I’m not sure that player is in the 2025 draft. If he is, it won’t be right away as a rookie. They may well draft someone to develop but I think it’s a near certainty they won’t be taking a quarterback next April in round one with the intention of starting them next year.
Equally, I don’t see a clear upgrade on the veteran market either. I don’t think the Seahawks should ‘get rid’ of Smith just because he’s maybe not as trendy or young as some other quarterbacks. The Chiefs played a blinder trading for Alex Smith and then biding their time to draft Patrick Mahomes. Eventually, the Seahawks will probably have to do something similar. But there’s no rush. They don’t ‘have‘ to do that in 2025. With Smith, they can wait for a player they love, not force a bad decision to aggressively pursue someone they only like.
While taking this approach, I am still sceptical that Smith will lead the Seahawks to the promise land. At the very least he will need a top supporting cast. I appreciate virtually every other quarterback is in the same boat. The thing is, the Seahawks aren’t close to having a top supporting cast. In order to build that, they might need to create the cap space and resource to construct a team that is placed to be a serious contender.
Overthecap has the Seahawks $15m in the red next season for effective cap space. It’s unavoidable to discuss what is best for the future of the team, with a fair amount of money saving required. Should they extend D.K. Metcalf’s contract and commit a major salary to a receiver? Do they need to make difficult decisions on players like Uchenna Nwosu and Dre’Mont Jones? Is it inevitable that franchise favourite Tyler Lockett is coming to the end of his time in Seattle?
Everything should be on the table — including the debate over Smith’s future. He is due $38.5m next year, with a further $2m inevitably on the cards when he hits the yardage escalator in his contract. It’s nothing to do with Smith’s perceived quality that you have a conversation about his future, much in the way you’re not questioning Metcalf over his.
How do the timelines of Smith and Metcalf’s peak years aline with Seattle’s ability to build a team to contend? Let’s say you pay them $45m and $32m a year respectively for the next three years. You secure their futures but will it prevent you from doing much of anything to make changes to key areas such as the offensive line and defense? Are you ultimately going to be left with the same team that has gone 9-8, 9-8 and now 5-5 over the last two-and-a-half seasons?
That isn’t to say you definitely can’t keep both, extend their contracts and still improve the team. The point is, simply, that any conversation should be on the table. The Seahawks are not in a healthy cap situation and the reality is it might take 2-3 years to get into a position where they are good enough in key areas to be a serious contender. By that point, Geno Smith will be 37. Is paying a massive contract at quarterback, with the team in its current form, the best plan? It might well be — but there’s nothing wrong with considering alternatives. After all, the team swapped one expensive quarterback (Russell Wilson) for a much cheaper one (Geno Smith) in 2022 and didn’t suffer.
Also, what amount becomes ‘too much’ for Smith? The current trend in the NFL is to give any quarterback who has either been drafted early or shown any promise an enormous deal. Is that the right approach to take? Or should teams set out to try and find greater value at the position, as the Seahawks did in 2022? The Vikings and Steelers are doing well with a cheaper approach to the position this year, while well-coached rookies are also succeeding.
Adding to this is the fact Smith is contracted for 2025. The Seahawks, technically, don’t have to do anything. Given Smith’s age, it won’t be a terrible plan to go year-by-year. He’s next scheduled to be a free agent in 2026, the year he turns 36. Given he didn’t have a hot free agency market in 2023, it might be best to let him establish his market in the future — if indeed the situation remains as it is today in about 15 months time.
None of this feels unreasonable to me. Yet online there is this quite aggressive undercurrent from a select number of people with prominent followings. The term ‘Geno haters’ is used frequently. It’s often implied you are pretty stupid, ignorant or simply don’t know anything about football unless you believe Smith is essentially Seattle’s answer to Josh Allen.
And again, I understand there are also fans who refuse to accept Smith ever plays well or is deserving of praise. For whatever reason though, they seem easier to ignore. They tend to be people with small (or no) followings. They aren’t on podcasts, streams, blogs or work for big media outlets. They aren’t names within Seahawks twitter. They are, by and large, just a very vocal minority.
They definitely contribute to the energy draining experience of this whole debate but I do hold the other side mostly responsible. They are far more aggressive and personal.
The Seahawks win a big game? Great. Time to put on your armour and go to war with everyone who doesn’t share your view on Geno Smith. It’s time for battle. Charge! Hand me that smart phone, I’m going in.
Maybe it’s just shit-posting and I’ve fallen into the trap? Maybe it’s doing whatever works for content creation and views/clicks? Maybe it’s just important to associate yourself with a ‘take’ these days? Whatever it is, it’s making this team less fun to follow.
I remember the days when a great win was celebrated together. Everyone just sharing the joy of victory. It’s starting to feel like some people are more invested in their position on Geno Smith than they are actually being a Seahawks fan.
I suppose it’s not surprising, though. This is the same fanbase that drew battle lines over ‘running backs don’t matter’ and spent a few years warring over that. Then there was the ‘Let Russ Cook’ cult until he was traded, then it was ‘spend every week being horrible about Russ’ instead. We had the ‘non-believers’ slamming anyone who dared to think there was a smidgen of a chance Wilson might be dealt (despite all of the glaring evidence showing it was a possibility). Now it’s Geno Smith’s turn to be in the middle of the latest thing where everyone has to pick a side and you’re either with us or against us.
We’re all Seahawks fans. Can’t we just get back to that?
It’s finally happened. After five long, desperate performances against the San Francisco 49ers, all culminating in very similar losses, the Seahawks have finally beaten them.
I think the most pleasing thing aside from the result was the different look to this game. The familiar ‘Seahawks dig themselves a hole, the 49ers capitalise, there’s a little bit of a rally that goes nowhere and the Niners eventually win comfortably’ was getting old. This had to be different.
Thankfully it was. The Seahawks made it a close contest and made having the last serious possession count. Suddenly the NFC West is wide open again and instead of mild disinterest in the Arizona game next week, it actually looks like one to look forward to and potentially savour.
It does have to be acknowledged that San Francisco were playing without George Kittle, so often a thorn in Seattle’s side. Trent Williams was banged up. Nick Bosa played through clear pain before eventually exiting. All 20 of Seattle’s points came without Bosa on the field.
Even so, the 49ers still had ample talent and were looking for a third straight win. It never felt like a game Kyle Shanahan had control of. For probably only the second time this season, the Seahawks made the game the type of contest they wanted to play. I don’t think they achieved that even in their three early season wins. Against Atlanta and today in Santa Clara, they dictated the flow.
Defensively they deserve a lot of credit. It’s a second reasonable showing in a row. It wasn’t flawless — the Jauan Jennings play on 3rd and 11 where he carried three defenders over the line to gain, with pre-snap confusion on his side of the field, had me (and I’m sure you) shouting at the screen in frustration. The Seahawks also had some iffy moments in the secondary.
However, they contained Christian McCaffrey and limited the run-game damage, created just enough pressure on Brock Purdy to be a factor and overall just played a mostly disciplined, organised four quarters. That’s a big upgrade on what we saw a few weeks ago.
Offensively it was another up and down game. The two touchdown drives were fantastic, especially the final one for obvious reasons. At times the play-design and scheming was eye-catching and clever. Geno Smith’s improv running the ball to win the game was inspired. Then there was the awful interception to start the second half, the second game in a row where they failed to get a yard on two plays on 3rd and 4th down and a continuing inability to unleash a serious running attack.
Olu Oluwatimi wasn’t noticeable, which is probably a good thing. It was good to see Abe Lucas back (and nobody should expect him to shut-out even an injured Bosa on his return). The two guards didn’t wreck the game. Yet Charles Cross seemed to have a bad day.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is really coming along and is starting to look like the real deal. At the same time, are they ever going to find a way to get the most out of Ken Walker’s obscene potential? And why does Zach Charbonnet look so utterly ‘meh’?
The whole offense is one big melting pot of good and bad. I don’t know whether we’re seeing ample potential to believe Ryan Grubb is an O-line away from glory or whether he’s likely to be a one-and-done failed experiment.
I’ll leave that for another day. Ultimately the offense got the job done at the end and for once, it’s the Seahawks who are victorious against the 49ers. It’s really good to say that again.
Just when you thought the first half season of Seahawks football could not be more tumultuous, we hit the bye week.
The Seahawks were neither buyers nor sellers at the trade deadline and fans were treated to two surprise departures and the return of a potentially stabilizing force at Right Tackle.
Tyrel Dodson was waived in a surprising development, a sign the Seahawks definitely envision more playing time (and perhaps a big future role on the defense) for Tyrice Knight. Connor Williams chose to retire, putting the team back where they were in Training Camp: Hoping Olu Oluwatimi would grab the starting job with both hands. Jalen Sundell can be a development project as the primary backup.
The news got much better when it was announced that Abe Lucas would indeed return. The lack of information around the knee injury, the fact the Seahawks took every single day of the PUP activation window and the unclear comments about how much he will play against the Niners was not quite enough salve to calm fans down after one of the stranger weeks in recent team history.
It is actually a bit of a relief that we can just watch a football game.
So let’s do that.
Since facing the Seahawks in Week Six, the Niners have a 2-1 record, losing to Kansas City and beating Dallas and Tampa Bay. All three games have been relatively close. In a way, the Niners are a picture of this NFL season: a lot of close football that signals parity across the league.
More than ever, it feels like games can be reduced to who can either make a key play, or avoid making mistakes. Which leads us to our first point.
Play Clean Football
This might be the tallest order for the Seahawks. The Niners are so talented and so well-coached that they force teams into mistakes. This Seahawks team is prone to making them.
In Week Six, cut the mistakes in half and you have a ballgame:
— Geno Smith overthrowing Tyler Lockett and into Malik Mustapha’s hands for an interception
— Julian Love misjudging a pass to Deebo Samuel and giving a clear path to the end zone
— DK Metcalf unable to get his feet down in the end zone on a critical third and goal throw
— Laviska Shenault fumbled a kickoff and the Niners recovered
— Several poor angles by Rayshawn Jenkins in rush defense
— A soft route by DK Metcalf that led to another interception
— A disastrous punt return attempt by Dee Williams that should have been ruled a muff
There were some good things too. Geno Smith led long scoring drives. The defense held the Niners to field goals while the game was still within reach. Tyler Lockett had some tough, Lockett-esque catches. They just couldn’t overcome so many errors.
The good news is, the Niners have been guilty of mistakes recently. Nearly fatal ones.
In the Kansas City game, Brock Purdy threw three interceptions. In the Dallas game, the defense committed drive-extending penalties on Cowboy touchdown drives. Against the Bucs, they missed three field goals, muffed a punt that led to an easy Tampa score and it took a gorgeous George Kittle touchdown catch and a clutch field goal to seal the win.
The Niners are talented enough and smart enough to overcome mistakes. The Seahawks do not have that wide a margin of error.
A personnel shakeup in the bye week can either mean a more focused, finely-tuned team or a team that will struggle to adjust to the new players on the field.
We will find out.
Win the Battle of the Running Game & Quarterbacks
Oh, is that all?
It has been the key factor in their matchups. Running the ball and stopping the run has been the cause of nearly every loss against the Niners.
There have been a number of problems, from predictable playcalling (they came out in a ‘run-run-pass’ formation in their early drives) to lack of solid run-blocking to little to no creativity.
The Seahawks were dedicated to using Kenneth Walker in Week Six but could not get much by focusing on the left side of the offensive line:
Last week, Tampa mercilessly attacked the right side of the line and had success running there. Bucky Irving was extremely effective there:
They didn’t just run the ball; they had little flairs to keep the defense off-balance — such as a little quick pitch to Irving for a touchdown. Fred Warner has the cutback lane covered but Malik Mustapha takes a bad angle and Irving has an escort to the end zone.
The Seahawks need to break free of their pattern of just plunging it into the line. Open up the playbook and take advantage of the Niners’ aggressiveness.
As for defending the running game? The best thing the defense can do is tackle well. The Niners are the NFL’s toughest offense to bring down with the first man. With Christian McCaffrey back, they are even tougher.
In the Tampa game, every scoring drive the Niners had featured a missed tackle that cost them big yardage. Run fits are important. Defeating blocking is important. But they are nothing if they cannot bring runners to the ground.
Ernest Jones, Devon Witherspoon and Tyrice Knight need to have a great day tackling.
And the Quarterbacks?
Brock Purdy (21.0%) and Geno Smith (22.3%) have almost faced the same pressure rate through nine games. Purdy has the benefit of a top-notch running game, Geno Smith does not.
Purdy has turned from a game manager to a playmaker at the Quarterback position. He has an underrated ability to keep plays alive in and around the pocket, giving receivers time to uncover. Combine that with his accuracy and ability to throw downfield and he has really ascended as a passer.
Just like in the rush defense, this game needs to be a return to form of the early-season pass rushing. The team that was in the top-five for sacks and pressures. Boye Mafe and Derick Hall having effective games would be a huge boost to this team. Purdy can be forced into mistakes and get a bit spooked later in the game from an early pass rush that is effective.
What about Geno Smith? He said this week beating the Niners is ‘very personal’ while acknowledging that he and the team need to snap their losing streak against them to get where they want to go.
He has to bring one of his best performances of the year in this game. Stepping up to the podium after not playing well in a loss and taking accountability and saying he knows he must be better is all well and good. Being better on the field makes those words matter.
What can he do in this game?
Be confident. Make quick decisions. Find short passes that take advantage of the pass rush’s aggression to burn them. And one more thing – run when you have a lane. Brock Purdy’s effectiveness has been greatly enhanced by his willingness to get those 3-4 yards he needs for a first down to keep drives alive. It was a backbreaker when Russell Wilson did it. Smith has the ability and legs to do it. He needs to trust his reads and make the plays he sees.
It might be fair to say this game may be a turning point for Smith. A clean, sharp game that gets the Niners on their heels and makes them adjust and take notice could paint the way to a spot on the 2025 team and possibly a contract extension.
He has talked so much about being accountable. Being more focused. Creating plays when he has the chance.
There is no better game to fulfill those promises than this one.
What Is at Stake?
The Seahawks’ odds for a playoff spot this year are not good. We know they have a tough schedule the rest of the way, especially with the Arizona Cardinals looking much better.
But this team needs to put together a tough, clean game that forces their division mates to know that they are not going to go down without a fight. Even in a loss, they can give those impressions and hold their heads high and start building something for 2025.
The team so far this season has tried so many inventions and groupings. Some a rousing success, others miserable failures. The process must begin to minimize those failures while keeping those successes.
What better time to do it than on the road with a hated division rival that has consistently beaten you?
Back in 2022 I wrote an article discussing why explosive traits matter. It explained that the NFL’s top offensive linemen mostly had similar physical characteristics based around explosive testing (measured by the vertical and broad jumps plus bench press). This allowed us to make a series of projections/predictions for player draft range and future NFL success.
Reflecting on that article two-and-a-half years later is quite interesting, especially after watching Cam Jurgens demolishing Washington’s defensive line during Thursday Night Football. I’d recommend reading it because it highlights why explosive testing has been a strong indicator and projector for the next level.
The piece made the following projections based on the testing results of the 2022 draft class:
Don’t be surprised if players like Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross don’t live up to their lofty media expectations and the names above outshine them in terms of NFL careers.
Ekwonu ran a good forty (4.93) and as we’ve discovered — that might be more indicative than we think. He ran a 1.72 10-yard split. However, nothing else about his profile stands out. He’s a 2.90 TEF tester which is good not great. His short shuttle was only a 4.73. For me he’s best served kicking into guard, as Zack Martin did. They have similar testing results. I think Ekwonu can be a terrific guard.
Cross also ran a good forty (4.95) but he’s only a 2.84 TEF tester and thus, not an explosive player. He ran a 4.61 short shuttle and a 1.75 split. The simple fact is that if he succeeds in the NFL we’ll be talking about him as another outlier.
This isn’t unfair. Ekwonu has improved slightly this year, with Carolina’s O-line generally upgrading. However he’s mostly struggled at tackle and has always looked better suited to kick inside.
Cross is clearly an athlete as shown by his 4.95 forty yard dash but three years into his career he still lacks great power and strength to handle blockers off the edge. He gets favourable reviews by Seahawks fans and media but he only has three games this season with a PFF grade of 75 or higher. He’s far from a bad player but he isn’t a great player either. I projected him as a second round grade who deserved to go between 20-40 in the 2022 class and I still think that’s fair. He looked like a player in college who had great feet and mobility but lacked the explosive traits to be an elite tackle.
Zion Johnson has every chance to go in the same range as Alijah Vera-Tucker (#14 overall) and could end up being one of the best players to emerge from this draft
Johnson was taken 17th overall by the Chargers. He hasn’t been a spectacular player but neither has he been a liability. He hasn’t emerged as one of the better players from the class but the draft range projection was accurate and there’s benefit in having a non-liability interior lineman with a cap hit of $1.3m this year and $2.5m next year. I suspect he’ll continue to develop in the Jim Harbaugh system.
Cole Strange, Cam Jurgens and Zach Tom have every chance to excel irrespective of where they are taken
Tom is one of the established steals of the 2022 draft, while Jurgens is starting to shine as Jason Kelce’s replacement in Philadelphia. Strange wasn’t expected to be a first round pick but was taken 29th overall by Bill Belichick — who clearly also felt he had a chance to be really good. He has been absent this season through injury. It’s difficult to read this back today — knowing how much we talked-up Jurgens and Tom pre-draft and seeing how useful they’d be for Seattle these days.
Tyler Linderbaum might not fit every scheme due to his size but he has the physical makeup of a top performing center
This played out as expected.
Trevor Penning — with his explosive testing and fast forty — has every chance to go in the top-10 and could easily go before Charles Cross, potentially as the third lineman off the board (Carolina at #6?) because his testing results match the best OT’s in the league
This didn’t prove to be the case, although his draft range (19th overall) was still higher than some were projecting. This was the weakest projection, though. I think if it wasn’t for Penning’s rashness and faux ‘bully’ playing style he likely would’ve gone earlier and it wasn’t so much his tape or testing that saw him last to #19.
If Bernhard Raimann wasn’t a 25-year-old rookie with short arms he’d likely be a very, very high pick — but he needs a major technical re-tool and the age/length works against him
Raimann was a third round pick and this year has an 82.5 PFF grade and has become an established NFL blocker.
Abraham Lucas deserves a lot more attention given he tests well across the board
When healthy, Lucas completely backed up this sentiment.
It’s important to note that the way I graded these players wasn’t purely down to testing. Extensive tape study played a part and you always have to marry testing and tape, potential/upside and college accomplishment. I was very high on Jurgens, Tom, Lucas and Linderbaum. Regulars will vouch for that. I gave Jurgens, Lucas and Linderbaum ‘would take in round one’ grades, with Tom slotted in round two based purely on non-ideal measurables (his tape and testing marks were excellent). Raimann was also graded in round two, with Johnson firmly in round one.
The piece from 2022 also acknowledged who I thought was being overrated. Kenyon Green was taken 15th overall by the Houston Texans. I had him graded in round four. He has been a disastrous pick. Daniel Faalele was being discussed as a potential top-50 pick. I had him in round four, the range where he was eventually taken. I errored by suggesting Tyler Smith wouldn’t go as early as some think — he was the 24th overall pick and has had a decent start to his career.
The point of all this is to say it isn’t always 4D chess to identify good offensive linemen. The article showed the common traits successful linemen have. When you combine testing with tape study you can generally work out who will have a decent shot at success.
You will always make mistakes, I certainly have, and it’s very easy to GM from a keyboard or in front of a TV. Nobody expects a team to have a flawless record drafting for any position. Yet it’s also hard to understand why the Seahawks have struggled so much both in drafting and developing linemen. In 2020 I graded Robert Hunt in round two — he’s been decent. I also had Damien Lewis graded in round two. I think he’s shown in Carolina that he’s far from a bad player — I believe shifting him from right guard (where he excelled as a rookie) to the left to accommodate Gabe Jackson stunted his development and was a missed opportunity.
In 2021, Landon Dickerson was one of only two offensive linemen I gave a first round grade to (the other being Penei Sewell). I gave second round grades to Creed Humphrey, Quinn Meinerz and Josh Myers. That was the year they traded their first rounder to the Jets for Jamal Adams — a pick that ended up being Christian Darrisaw (second round grade) — and used their second rounder on Dee Eskridge. I gave Eskridge a third round grade and they took him 56th overall. They could’ve had any of Humphrey, Meinerz or Myers instead.
It’s long since been revealed that they felt they needed ‘juice’ on defense, thus the Adams trade. Not to mention Russell Wilson’s public appeal for ‘stars’ to be added at the Pro Bowl. Missing out on any significant pass rusher, while losing Jadeveon Clowney, also likely played a part in the Adams acquisition. Yet it robbed the Seahawks of an opportunity to invest in their O-line — something that felt critical for the style of football they said they wanted to play.
Not only did the picks used on Adams prevent them from drafting good linemen in 2021, it also cost them a chance to add players in free agency. Joe Thuney signed a $16m a year contract with the Chiefs in March that year. In August, the Seahawks were obliged to give Adams $17.5m a year after spending so much to acquire him. Nothing sums the calamity of this period of Seahawks football up better than this.
At the time Patrick Mahomes only had one Super Bowl ring — the same as Russell Wilson, who was considered to be in his prime. The Seahawks could’ve easily used the Adams money to sign Thuney, breaking the market to outbid the Chiefs. They couldn’t because after paying a fortune in picks for Adams, they were handcuffed to him (even as some of us pleaded with them to move on after a year, including during multiple 710 radio hits — which I’m sure went down a storm).
They also could’ve drafted other linemen in 2021 to pair with Thuney — as the Chiefs did with Creed Humphrey — making their line a major strength in what could’ve been a transformational off-season. Instead, they traded for Jackson, moved Lewis and started Brandon Shell at right tackle.
Hindsight’s a wonderful thing of course — but you can’t help but wonder what would’ve happened for Wilson, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks if they’d never traded for Adams, had signed Thuney, drafted Humphrey and rebuilt their line as a core identity to pair with Wilson. A year later in 2022, Wilson was moved to Denver. Even if that was still destined to happen, the rebuilt line would’ve positioned the Seahawks to be strong in future seasons.
The opportunity was there and they didn’t take it.
I suspect the Seahawks are facing an upcoming off-season where they might be relying on the draft again to bolster the O-line. We saw how risky this can be with the Christian Haynes pick — it’s already looking like he could be a whiff. Their challenging cap situation, as emphasised by Curtis Allen’s brilliant breakdown this week (check it out here) highlights the inability they’ll have to splurge on veteran linemen without making huge and potentially unpopular decisions. It’s incredibly frustrating that the Seahawks are tied to so many bad contracts, are carrying so much dead money and face a yearly situation where they have to move things around, despite not having to pay any legit elite players. This is why John Schneider is quite rightly facing more criticism than he has at any point previously in his tenure and why the next off-season could end up being a critical one for the team and the GM.
If it is to be a reliance on the draft, we already have a lot of testing data for Iowa center Logan Jones. Combined with the rapid improvements he’s shown on tape, there’s a very real prospect he will end up being an excellent NFL center and it’s why I currently grade him as a player I would consider in round one. He’ll be locked into a top-50 placing the rest of the way. I’m intrigued to see Jake Majors’ testing results, given his four-star background, plus Tyler Booker’s as a former five-star recruit. There are intriguing options and more will emerge during the Senior Bowl and combine week. With today’s news that Connor Williams is retiring, the Seahawks will again be looking for yet another center next year. They need to draft someone for the long term and/or add a veteran presence like Ryan Kelly (a pending free agent). No more chopping and changing annually.
Frankly, I’m ready to accept a process driven approach where the 2025 off-season is viewed as the first year of the next era, rather than the latest attempt to try and ‘contend’ when I don’t think this team is anywhere near as close as they think (or at least thought a few months ago). If that means taking a year to build the line, sacrificing salary and quality at some positions, to get onto the right path for success — that will be a better plan than plodding along hoping a nudge or a nurdle here or there will lead you to glory. It won’t.
No more kicking the can down the road with contracts, totting up the dead money. No more clinging on to previous mistakes. A fresh start, with the trenches at the heart of everything. That’s where this team needs to be built.
The first step should be to create the resource to invest heavily in the offensive line — both with veterans and picks. And go from there.
