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This week I spent some time studying Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke. He burst onto the scene this season with the Hoosiers starting 7-0 under intriguing Head Coach Curt Cignetti.

I’m not familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (no relation to Kyle) but the first thing that stood out to me was how well the Indiana offense functions. Their pass protection is good, the receivers run crisp routes and everything is effective, on time and it works.

Rourke certainly plays his part in this — he gets the ball out quickly, he seems to have a strong grasp of the scheme and as the distributor of the football, he is the focal point. Yet it’s been quite a while since I watched an offense function at this level. Cignetti and his staff deserve a lot of credit.

From a draft perspective it’s actually helpful that Rourke isn’t playing against Washington this weekend due to a thumb injury. Now we get to see how the offense operates without him to compare. Hopefully he’ll be back for contests against Michigan’s NFL-heavy defense and Ohio State — two vital games that will help shape his stock (and Indiana’s season).

With all this in mind, how do you assess his play? The first thing I’d say is he’s always in attack mode and I like that. He’s willing to go after every area of the field. Often a highly functioning offense includes a lot of cheap short passes and run after the catch situations. That isn’t the case with Indiana. They go for chunks of yardage with their throws.

I think he scans the field very well. You can see him waiting for routes to develop. He does a good job with his ball placement and he’s mastered the back-shoulder throw. There are some impressive passes on tape that I would compare to Michael Penix last year where he throws from the far hash to the opposite sideline with timing, velocity and accuracy. He doesn’t have Penix’s arm talent but that’s not a knock, few do.

Indiana’s giving up just 2.5 sacks per game which is pretty good — it’s the 29th best rate in college football. In comparison, Garrett Nussmeier at LSU is being sacked four times a game — the second highest rate. Everyone talks up the two LSU tackles as NFL prospects but they haven’t played well this season.

Part of Indiana’s low sack rate, though, is the quickness with which Rourke distributes the ball. There’s never any messing about. Yet while watching tape, I didn’t see him under constant duress at any point.

PFF tracks pressures allowed/created by the quarterback and not the O-line. Here are the numbers for the season so far:

Shedeur Sanders — 20
Garrett Nussmeier — 13
Cam Ward — 10
Brady Cook — 10
Carson Beck — 9
Seth Henigan — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Jaxson Dart — 9
Drew Allar — 8
Miller Moss — 8
Quinn Ewers — 7
Kyle McCord — 6
Will Howard — 5
Billy Edwards Jr — 3
Kurtis Rourke — 3

I think this is a combination of everything clicking for Indiana on offense — the quarterback getting the ball out quickly and the protection being good. It’s a positive all round. Can Rourke do this at the next level? Will he get an environment that allows him to be this economic and effective? That’s a question teams will ask.

He only has 10 ‘big time throws’ for the season compared to six ‘turnover worthy plays’. So while he’s PFF’s top graded passer in college football currently — he’s not asked to complete many difficult throws. Meanwhile, the six turnover worthy plays within this environment is a bit of a concern — because you wonder if that number grows in a harder pro environment.

Here are some of the names among the top ‘big time throw’ leaders this season:

Billy Edwards Jr — 21
Kyle McCord — 21
Cam Ward — 20
Shedeur Sanders — 19
Seth Henigan — 15
Garrett Nussmeier — 14
Jaxson Dart — 14
Kurtis Rourke — 10

Here are the TWP numbers for the list above:

Kyle McCord — 11
Cam Ward — 9
Jaxson Dart — 8
Billy Edwards Jr — 7
Seth Henigan — 7
Garrett Nussmeier — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 6
Shedeur Sanders — 4

Now here are the BTT/TWP numbers when a quarterback is under pressure:

Cam Ward — 8/4
Kyle McCord — 7/3
Billy Edwards Jr — 6/2
Shedeur Sanders — 6/2
Kurtis Rourke — 5/2
Garrett Nussmeier — 2/4
Jaxson Dart — 2/4
Seth Henigan — 2/5

I think this stat is interesting because it highlights how pressure has effected quarterbacks in a bigger way than others. The fact that half of Rourke’s big time throws have come when he’s under pressure is a positive. Meanwhile, only two of Nussmeier’s 12 came under pressure.

Note how well Billy Edwards Jr rates in these categories — a player I wrote about here.

Rourke has good size, a very decent arm and he does deliver passes with touch to varying levels of the field. There are certain offensive schemes where you can imagine him having a lot of success. He’s another player who I think would work very well in the Shanahan system — one that lays the table for a quarterback and they have to read their keys and distribute the ball quickly and accurately.

I also think he’d look great in the DeBoer/Grubb offense we saw at Washington. Thus, he might be considered a fit in Seattle. He definitely has the size and attacking mindset I think John Schneider likes.

I’m increasingly convinced that you need a level of mobility, escapability and an ability to play off-platform if you’re going to thrive in the NFL. Rourke is not agile or a great mover. He’s not terrible either. Looking at some of his Ohio tape I thought he was a bit leaner and more mobile/nimble. He looks bigger and a bit slower at Indiana.

There are examples where he does get out of the pocket and he can deliver on the run. He can also scramble for a few yards when the opportunity emerges and he can manipulate the pocket to extend. At the next level though, where everyone is faster, I’m not sure he’ll be effective to extend, create and play off-platform.

Overall I was impressed. His ball placement is good, he’s executing the offense at a high level, he attacks the defense to every level, he’s a big, tall passer with a good arm and I’m intrigued to see more.

I think you have to look for special physical qualities in college QB’s and/or look at the players who are performing in situations that are transferable (eg — anticipation throwing, dealing with a lot of pressure, third down conversions etc). I’m not sure Rourke has special qualities or the transferable situational tape — but there’s something here that at the very least makes him interesting from a NFL perspective.

For what it’s worth, Indiana has the seventh best third down conversion percentage in college football (50.8%). I will go back and track Rourke in third down situations before the end of the year.

This isn’t a great quarterback class. I don’t think it’s as bad as 2022 — but I don’t currently have anyone I feel comfortable grading in round one. It won’t be a surprise if Rourke’s star rises if he can return to health and play well in the big games coming up for Indiana.

I wrote some thoughts down on the Ernest Jones IV trade earlier (have a read if you missed them). I was also on with Puck Sports shortly after the deal was confirmed to provide some near-instant reaction. You can watch our conversation below:

The Seahawks are trading LB Jerome Baker and a fourth-round pick to Tennessee for LB Ernest Jones IV, a source tells me.

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) October 23, 2024

Brady Henderson has confirmed the Seahawks are sending a 2025 fourth rounder to the Titans, plus Jerome Baker, for the former Rams linebacker Ernest Jones.

My initial thought is I don’t know what to make of this move. While it’ll be a decent immediate benefit if the Seahawks gain better run defense and health at the linebacker position, Jones only cost the Titans a swap of 2026 late round picks a few weeks ago (a sixth for a fifth). Now, seven games into the season, his price has suddenly jumped to a fourth rounder in 2025.

That doesn’t really make sense in terms of value from a Seahawks perspective.

Furthermore, it’s very much a rental deal. Jones is out of contract in the off-season. It’s possible this is a trade with a view to retaining him beyond 2024 if things work out. If not, they just spent a non-throwaway pick on a short-term measure that I’m not entirely sure will be a quick fix.

It could be. Jones’ run defense grade last season, per PFF, was a superb 90.0. The year before it was a 78.8. Let’s not forget though that he was playing behind Aaron Donald in LA. Without Donald, Jones’ run defense grade dropped to 68.4. Jerome Baker’s was a 62.6.

It also speaks a little bit to a lack of trust in Tyrice Knight, who they recently used a fourth round pick on, that they felt obliged to spend a decent amount to replace Baker, rather than just give Knight more opportunities.

I’m sure someone will point out that if he leaves as a free agent next off-season he could get a contract that returns a comp pick to Seattle. I’d suggest that might be unlikely given he was dealt by the Rams for so little to Tennessee and now he’s been traded again to the Seahawks. Perhaps Mike Macdonald can elevate his play to the level where a big contract is forthcoming? The Rams made a decision they wouldn’t pay him, which is why he wanted a trade in the first place.

The Seahawks are scheduled to have two fourth round picks in 2025 thanks to a comp pick — so you could reason it’s a worthwhile shot to see if Jones can provide an answer for Seattle. It just all feels a bit like a ‘band-aid’. That once again the team is trying to fix issues during a season — and this one (run defense) has been around for too long now, through two Head Coaches.

I’ve not studied Jones’ play enough in LA or Tennessee to have an opinion on whether he’s likely to become a figurehead for the defense. Per PFF, he had a breakout 2023 but has otherwise not had spectacular grades. He has a reputation for being a physical, thumping linebacker. They do need more of that. If he plays lights out, adds further tone-setting to the defense, shores up the run and eventually signs an extension — spending a fourth rounder won’t be a problem in the slightest. The risk of a rental is always that, on the other side, if he just walks away in a few months it won’t be great.

I look forward to watching him play and seeing if Seattle can fix their problems defending the run. I’m just not keen on the price — Baker plus a 2024 fourth rounder for 10 games of Jones, when the Titans didn’t even give up a pick to acquire him before the season — doesn’t sound right.

Georgia vs Texas

John Schneider attended this game, unsurprisingly given it featured a number of future NFL players. I’ve got some Schneider-related thoughts coming later in the piece.

This was a really disappointing showing from Texas. Their offensive line, featuring big name players at left tackle, center and right tackle, lost the battle in the trenches. Steve Sarkisian’s game plan felt overly conservative in the first half and they couldn’t get anything going. The run wasn’t working and it put a lot of pressure on Quinn Ewers against a feverish Georgia front seven. Ewers shrank in the moment, became flustered and the entire Texas offense needed half-time to re-set and get back on track. By that point, they were already trailing 23-0.

On Ewers, he did not play well. The two big question marks with him going into the season were health and consistency. The fact he’s had an injury and since returning has looked a shadow of the player who started the season, speaks to the problem. After three years at Texas you have to ask whether he’ll ever be able to stay healthy and avoid being a rollercoaster quarterback — looking excellent some of the time and then having games where he looks like this.

I do think some of the reaction to the weekend has been OTT though. I’ve seen people online clipping snaps blaming him for the protection issues, making unrealistic expectations of the quarterback during a game where Texas effectively ran into a defensive buzzsaw. The O-line had no push in the running game and once the scoreline grew things unravelled. There were also drops, including on a trick-play that could’ve opened things up. Ewers’ adjusted completion percentage for the game was 71.8% compared to the reality of 58.1%. That’s a considerable difference.

It doesn’t excuse the quarterback playing well within himself but I think an inordinate portion of the blame has been put on his shoulders. There was plenty to go around in that first half.

More on Ewers later.

The best player on the field by some distance was Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker. His ability to play the edge and win 1v1 adds to his roaming athleticism and power as a conventional linebacker. I think he’s overtaken Abdul Carter as the best versatile defensive chess piece for the 2025 draft — although both players will be high picks. I think he’d be an ideal player for Mike Macdonald’s defense but he’s unlikely to be in range. In a draft class with very limited legit round one options, I think teams will take a chance on both Walker and Carter early.

Walker finished with three sacks and led the Georgia defense in tackles (eight).

Mykel Williams has missed a lot of the season through injury and he was spelled in this game too because he isn’t 100% — yet he still produced two big sacks and flashed the kind of talent that could move him into the early part of round one. Can he build on this performance and finish the year playing with this level of impact? He’s a fantastic looking inside/out rusher in terms of physical build but he’s never had consistent production.

The third key player for Georgia was Trevor Etienne. He ran for 87 yards on 19 carries but his impact felt greater that his stat-line. He showed great suddenness and dynamism hitting the line and was by far the best skill player on show in the game. He deserves a solid day two grade and could be an electric complementary runner as a one-two punch at the next level. It’s a tremendous looking running back class for 2025.

As mentioned, Texas’ O-line was a let down.

Kelvin Banks Jr doesn’t have a left tackle frame and will almost certainly need to kick inside to guard at the next level but he had a torrid time against Walker when they lined up against each other. He gave up a couple of pressures and a sack but in his first real test of the season, it didn’t feel like he was making a case to stick at tackle with his frame. I do think he could be an excellent guard but not the top-10 pick left tackle pick some are making out.

Cameron Williams the right tackle is admired by some online but he looked lost with his technique. He clearly has the frame to be a NFL tackle but his feet and body weren’t aligned and he gave up a number of pressures. He’s started to get some draft buzz but from a Seahawks perspective, I think drafting him would create another Germain Ifedi situation. He looks the part but he badly needs more game experience and time to work on his technique. He gave up four pressures and a sack against Georgia and on some reps looked all over the place.

I’m a big fan of center Jake Majors and in fairness of all the players on the line, he was the one who played well. He has a good anchor, he’s nicely sized for the position, he’s a good athlete as a former four-star recruit and I’ve graded him firmly in the day two range. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up having a very good NFL career.

As was the case against Alabama, Carson Beck was awful. He had two interceptions and nearly had a third in the first half alone. His ball placement was wildly erratic again. He makes his receivers work hard on nearly every throw, leading to tipped pass interceptions and incompletions that should be routine catches.

It didn’t get much better after half-time. He came out throwing near-interceptions again before finally landing one, leading to all of the drama around a flag for DPI that was eventually overturned — with fans throwing bottles and beer cans onto the field in protest at the initial call. Beck simply didn’t seem to be on the same page as his receiver — adding to the concerns about accuracy and ball placement.

Beck has a day three grade on my horizontal board and I wouldn’t draft him. I don’t think he can start at quarterback at the next level with what he’s shown this year. Without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey he looks lost. He’s thrown eight interceptions and it could’ve been more. I don’t see upside to make up for the lack of accuracy and anticipation. He isn’t someone, in my opinion, with a NFL starting future.

I feel differently with Ewers from an upside perspective. When you watch his games against the likes of Alabama and Washington last season, and Michigan this season (I know Michigan aren’t good — but their defense has a number of first and second day NFL draft picks) you see top-end ability that translates.

NFL teams have been monitoring Ewers for a long time. I appreciate recruiting grades mean little when you’ve had three or four years of college tape to analyse — but it does provide an indication on how people felt about Ewers that he was graded above even Caleb Williams within the 2022 recruiting class.

According to 247 Sports, a recruiting service, Ewers became only the sixth ever player to receive a 1.0000 ranking in their composite — along with Jadeveon Clowney, Robert Nkemdiche, Rashan Gary, Vince Young and Ernie Sims. Not all of these players went on to have amazing NFL careers but the talent and potential was clear — and all were very highly touted as a consequence and drafted early.

I think to anyone who watches a lot of quarterback tape — the good flashes from Ewers make it fairly obvious why he was so highly rated. He has natural gifts as a passer that very few quarterbacks have. The deep throws he delivered against Alabama last year are some of the best you’ll see at any level of football. His whip-like release is, at times, reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers. There is no doubt in my mind that there are scouts and GM’s out there who appreciate Ewers’ upside.

I suspect most of these same evaluators will also share the concerns we’ve raised on this blog about his ability to stay healthy and play with consistency. The importance of the position means some teams will believe it’s worthwhile taking a chance on him to see if they can coach him into the prospect his talent indicates he can be. There will be others that scoff at the prospect of that idea based on games like the one on Saturday.

I don’t think Schneider was in Texas just to watch Ewers. Far from it. I bet he was a big reason why he attended that game though. He has the kind of natural gifts I think Schneider is waiting for at the position. I think he wants to invest in a special talent — it’s just so difficult to find those players at this position. It’s why he doesn’t ‘just take shots’ at quarterback. Ewers has the talent even if there are other issues that are a concern.

He’s not typically the kind of quarterback I’d expect Schneider to like. I think it’s pretty clear he has a type, as we’ve discussed many times. This is the GM who traded for Charlie Whitehurst and Drew Lock. He really rated Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. He likes big, athletic gunslingers in the physical mould of Brett Favre — who he worked with in Green Bay. Russell Wilson didn’t have the height but he too was a great example of that same playing style. I reckon Schneider was probably a fan of Drake Maye and watching him for the Pats on Sunday, it was easy to think he’s a Schneider type.

Ewers neither has the frame nor the mad creative skills to improv and make things happen. I think he’s a good athlete and could maybe develop those traits. Nevertheless, I’d still keep an eye on Ewers. If he isn’t going to go as early as some thought a few weeks ago, it could play into Seattle’s hands. I do think Schneider is set on drafting a QB — not necessarily to start right away but at least to develop in the background — as we saw the Packers do with both Rodgers and Jordan Love. It’s also worth remembering they spent a second round pick on Brian Brohm shortly after using a first rounder on Rodgers.

The Packers mentality has been to draft to develop. I can imagine Ewers being someone Seattle invests in to see if he can progress in their system. I’m not convinced Sam Howell has done enough to feel like that development slot is taken. And they do need to keep adding youth at the position with Geno Smith now 34 and contracted only until the end of 2025 (I don’t believe a big extension, that some have called for, is likely — and believe they will take this year-to-year with Geno).

I think Schneider means it when he says he wants to draft a quarterback every year — it’s simply that the options haven’t been there. He might be prepared to take a shot on Ewers, using a pick to let him sit and develop for a year or two. It might not work out, as it didn’t for Brohm in Green Bay. I just wouldn’t be shocked if Seattle thought Ewers’ talent was worth investing in.

I say all this while acknowledging that in the presence of Schneider on Saturday there were times in the Georgia game where he looked small, slightly timid and a little bit like a deer in the headlights. He had six turnover worthy plays compared to just one big time throw. Yet you only have to put on the Alabama game last year, seeing him go on the road in the toughest environment and winning with style and pro-level skill to understand why he shouldn’t be written off.

Ewers would be a good quarterback for Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. He has the skill-set to work within the system he operated at Fresno State and Washington. I’m not sure it’s likely that Ewers stays another year in college and transfers for a second time — but stranger things have happened. DeBoer really elevated Michael Penix and Jake Haener’s stock. That also brings you onto the thought that he also might fit Ryan Grubb.

It’ll be interesting to see if Ewers can return to his best form for the rest of the season and where his stock settles. At the moment I think he’s more top-50 than top-10. I don’t have any quarterback graded as a legit first round prospect for 2025. The Seahawks have other upcoming needs — particularly on the O-line and potentially other positions like linebacker. Yet eventually they will draft a quarterback to give themselves a chance to develop a long-term solution. It will be a far better plan to do that with Geno Smith under contract than forcing a rookie to play when he isn’t ready.

A final note on this game — I think Texas tight end Gunnar Helm — not a lofty draft prospect coming into the season — had a really good couple of catches in the fourth quarter to highlight how he will be a nice option for someone, probably at the top-end of day three. He’s having a good season.

Other notes from week eight

— Josh Kreutz the Illinois center is showing a lot of promise. He anchored the line well against Michigan — handling Kenneth Grant with ease and holding his own against top-10 pick Mason Graham. While it’s true Graham also had his wins — including a rag-doll push-pull move in the second quarter — Kreutz played fundamentally sound football, understood his assignments and did a mostly terrific job blocking straight-on. He’s tough, physical and was able to move defenders off the spot to creating running lanes. His pass-pro was sound. He’s not a center who loves to get up to the second level or move around to block in space but I think there’s a lot to like here. His father is the famous former Bears center Olin Kreutz — so he has the best bloodlines imaginable. I think he could be a day-two pick. He’s a fourth-year junior so might not declare but I hope he does. I want Seattle to build a leadership core through a tough, physical offensive line. Kreutz has the kind of playing mentality that fits that idea. He’s my fourth ranked center behind Logan Jones, Jake Majors and Parker Brailsford.

— I feel validated in the way we’ve cut through the hype on Jalen Milroe. For weeks people talked about his major development as a passer. The reality was exposed in brutal fashion against Tennessee. He didn’t look like a pro-prospect in this game. He was inaccurate and had an interception to end the game. If you put a cap on his running ability and force him to play as a more conventional passer, he can’t do it. You’d be drafting him mainly to be a threat with his legs, not with his arm. While he might be a tremendous runner — I don’t feel comfortable drafting a quarterback whose best characteristic isn’t throwing the football. I’m starting to think he might be better transferring to another school for next season, somewhere with a track record of producing highly successful running quarterbacks. I think Kalen DeBoer needs a better passer and Milroe, on the evidence he’s shown this season, should consider whether a change of scenery and a fresh start would be best for his career. I think it’s astonishing that analysts for the Athletic and PFF have been talking about Milroe as a first rounder or the top quarterback eligible for the draft.

— South Carolina’s defense is legit. I’ve been a big fan of Nick Emmanwori for months and he’s my #2 graded safety behind only Malaki Starks. He had two picks against Oklahoma, with the first showing off great range for a man his size. The second was pretty much thrown straight to him but he returned it for a pick-six. He’s asked to do a lot for a defensive back who is listed above 220lbs. There are some intriguing physical qualities here and they’ve shown up game after game. I think he’s solidly in the round two range at the moment. The Sooners had no answer for the defensive line. TJ Sanders and Tonka Hemingway dominated the interior. Kyle Kennard might not be the greatest athlete but he wins cleanly off the edge to create pressure every week. Linebacker Demetrius Knight seemed to be all over the field. This is a great looking unit with a lot of talent.

— Cam Ward played very well for Miami against Louisville and the Hurricanes remain unbeaten. I have to say though — there are a few other quarterbacks in this class wishing they had Ward’s schedule this year. Louisville’s defense was a shambles. Every week Miami’s opponent forgets how to play football in the fourth quarter. Ward had some excellent, highlight-reel throws in this contest. He also had some misses, a dropped interception and he took some sacks. I’d much rather spend every week complimenting Ward for the growth he’s shown — but while people keep projecting him as a high first round pick, I feel obliged to push back against the hype. He has improved his stock but I think he’s gone from a day three pick to a day two pick this season. That should be celebrated but I think some of the hype goes too far. As we’ve discussed a lot already this season, he still carries some old habits from the Washington State days.

— A final word on two players I’ve talked about a lot recently. Ricky White III had another touchdown for UNLV vs Oregon State. He ran a slant and extended his arms well away from his body to make a difficult catch look easy. I really believe White III has an X-factor quality, he reminds me a little bit of Nuk Hopkins at Clemson and he’s one of my favourite players in the 2025 class. Meanwhile, Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr had 10 catches for 171 yards against Kent State. He is a playmaker at his position and one of a number of exciting tight ends set to enter the NFL.

I will post an article this week discussing some of my favourite players in the class who could fit with the Seahawks.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

In a seventeen game NFL season, every week counts. Every week can be pointed to as a turning point for a team, one that cuts both ways. The beginning of something good, or the game fans point to that just confirms that the wheels that were wobbly have truly fallen off.

It is no small matter that the Seahawks have dropped three games in a row and have tumbled from an exhilarating 3-0 start to a maddening 3-3 team with more questions than answers.

They had a mini-bye to take stock of their program and reassess some things. Frankly, everything needed a close look. Execution in all three phases, player motivation and play calling.

Sporting a -5 turnover ratio while giving up over 500 rushing yards in three losses will sure make you look at things differently.

They will need every bit of coaching they can get for this game against the Falcons. While it is a relief to get some of their Defensive Linemen like Boye Mafe and Byron Murphy back, now the defensive backfield is being hammered by injuries. Starting Cornerbacks Tre Brown and Riq Woolen are out. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins was placed on Injured Reserve. Right Tackle Stone Forsythe will be replaced by Mike Jerrell, who is getting his first-ever NFL snaps in the NFL.

Every team has ‘roster decimation games’ like this at least once or twice a season. It is up to the coaches to know the skills of the healthy players they have available and tailor a game plan accordingly. Primarily that means leaning on and accentuating your personnel’s strengths and minimizing their weaknesses.

It is needed particularly this week, as Atlanta looks very capable at 4-2. After a clunky opening loss to the Steelers, they have won four of five games — including all three of their division games. Their lone loss was to Kansas City and they twice were in the red zone late in the fourth quarter and did not come away with any points in a five point loss.

With a defense that has been far softer than expected, an offense that has too often been one-dimensional and special teams that are almost always an adventure, the Seahawks will need to play smart, tough, dedicated football to come home with a win today.

Those are the real points to keep an eye on:

— Can the defense take good angles and make the tackles they should?

— Can the offense run the ball?

— Can Geno Smith deliver under duress if this game turns into a shootout?

— Can the special teams unit deliver a ‘we’re not the reason we lost the game’ performance?

— If the team gets behind in the game, will see pouting and loafing on the sidelines from their top players?

We will see.

But for now, let us take a look at some of the finer points to watch in this matchup.

Put Pressure on Kirk Cousins – By Any Means Necessary

We have long discussed Cousins’ kryptonite: He is a very poor quarterback when blitzed. To quote from our 2021 article when the Seahawks played the Vikings in Week Three:

In Kirk Cousins’ three-year tenure in Minnesota, you can practically draw a straight line between the amount of pressures the Vikings allow and whether they win the game or not:

Average pressures in a Viking win: 6.9
Average pressures in a Vikings loss: 12.4
But that is just academic, isn’t it? Just about every team in the league can tie winning the game to pressuring the quarterback, right?

What makes Kirk Cousins any different?

This does — when Cousins was blitzed in 2020, his completion percentage dropped from 71.40% to 59.50%.

You read that correctly. He goes from sharpshooter to peashooter when blitzed.

Has he gotten better since then? Has the move to Atlanta remedied that weakness?

Good heavens no. In fact, he has gotten worse.

When Cousins is not blitzed, he completes 69.1% of his passes.

When he is blitzed? That number drops to a horrid 55.8%.

There are several reasons why this is the case.

Cousins has found a lot of success getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible to avoid pressure. He has always had playmakers to work with. If he can get the ball in their hands, they will make things happen. There are some plays that are pure rhythm. Snap, drop, throw. The Seahawks will need the occasional press play from their corners to disrupt his timing.

Another reason is he is not an off-script playmaker nearly to the extent other NFL quarterbacks are. He has one scramble in six games so far. For one yard. It is just not his game to extend plays and torch defenses when things break down.

And the third – and maybe the biggest reason – is he does not have the natural arm talent other top quarterbacks have. If he is throwing it more than 15 yards in the air, he needs his full windup in order to get it there in time. Bullying offensive linemen into his field of vision takes a good chunk of his arm out of the game.

Look at an example of what happens when he has time:

What a catch by Darnell Mooney! 😱#TBvsATL on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/YdkrfoRFXn

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2024

Tampa Bay has gotten no rush with their front four and Cousins has time to scan the field and really put some mustard on the pass. He puts it where only Mooney can make a play – with three defenders in close proximity – and nails it.

That is Cousins’ game in a nutshell. Quick throws to playmakers and when his immediate first read is not available, he will pick you apart.

If he has time.

Given this data, would you rather as a rule flood coverage in an effort to assist your depleted backfield? Or sprinkle in some blitzes to get him off his game? I would select the latter.

Notice a typical example of what happens when he is not comfortable:

This @Steelers defense 🔒 Donte Jackson INT!

📺: #PITvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/M5C6TTuLgH

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

He cannot step into his throw due to the lineman in his face. He loses velocity and throws an easy interception.

Geno Smith can make that throw flat-footed. Cousins cannot.

Armed with this long-standing catalog of Cousins’ trouble facing pressure, teams should be arming themselves to the teeth and blitzing at every opportunity.

They are not.

Only two starting quarterbacks in the entire NFL are being blitzed less-often than Cousins: Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold. Is there a reason those two do not get blitzed much? There is. They eat blitzes alive. Both are far more efficient when being blitzed than in normal rush.

This is one of the NFL’s greatest market inefficiencies in 2024. The Seahawks absolutely must take advantage in order to keep this offense in check. If they can do it with just Mafe, Williams, Hall and Murphy, all the better. But some well-timed blitzes will pour some gas on the fire.

A word on what kind of blitzing is needed: In that 2021 game, the Seahawks blitzed Cousins 11 times but were mostly ineffective. Why? They often tried delayed blitzes, and by the time the rusher got near Cousins, the ball was gone. The defense could not match up tight coverage with the blitz and Cousins often found the open man.

You can see on the Mooney touchdown that Anthony Nelson tried a stunt and was way too late to make a difference.

Mike Macdonald can disguise his blitzes, but they have to fire off at the snap and not be the long-developing Sunday drive types of blitzes. They very rarely work with Cousins.

Take What the Falcons Defense Gives You

Just as the potent Falcon offense is a concern for Seahawks fans, Falcons fans are rightly worried about how the Seahawks will attack their defense with their multiplicity of weapons.

And like the Seahawks’ new staff, they have a first-time Defensive Coordinator who made his bones in the college game (old Husky friend Jimmy Lake). How is it going so far?

Not unlike the Seahawks. Players are trying to grasp their roles, Lake is sticking to his principles and trusting that success will come. A big, big benefit they have going for them is the high-powered offense. The defense has not had to frequently make a big play to turn the game around. Just keep things in front of them and let the offense do its job.

Lake is employing a ‘bend don’t break’ philosophy that many Seahawks fans are familiar with: allow the smaller stuff, protect explosive deep passes and play the odds. In the red zone, use the shortened field to your advantage and keep them out of the end zone. Asking offenses to run 10-15 plays to get a touchdown is playing the odds that teams will eventually sputter and not be able to gain ten yards in three plays.

The result is a very intriguing mix:

— On the ground, they are in the middle of the pack in yards per rush but bottom 10 in rush attempts against and rushing yards per game. What is happening? They one of the NFL’s worst at conceding rushing first downs. So, they cannot get off the field when the defensive line needs to just man up and make a stop. They badly miss Calais Campbell. They can be run on, with patience and persistence.

— In the air, the philosophy is even more evident. They are top ten in passing yards conceded but middle of the pack in passing attempts against. The Falcons pass rush is almost non-existent with only five sacks in six games and a 14% pressure rate. They are conceding a 73.15% completion rate. I had to rub my eyes and do a double-take on that number.

As a result, they have only given up eleven plays of 20 yards or more, the lowest in the NFL. Eight of those are passes and three are rushes. (The flipside is, the Falcons offense is one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of time of possession.)

All of this does not mean the Seahawks must abandon the explosive nature of their offense and just plod down the field with dink and dunk type plays. It does mean that the Seahawks should liberally apply the run to their mix and tenderize this defense and then implement some play-action and let Geno survey the field with all the time he will have.

A 22 for 26 day for 275 yards and 2/3 touchdowns complemented by 30 rushes for 140 yards or so would be just what the doctor ordered.

Patience will be the key. If the Falcons are happy to give the Seahawks crossing patterns and short slants and other in-breaking routes, take them. Give the defense some time to rest and be ready to attack the Falcon offense.

And then when they get into the red zone, overwhelm them with talent.

Like this:

my goodness, DK Metcalf. pic.twitter.com/Rk4DXfEMj9

— Patty Honcho 🤹🏾‍♂️ (@PATTY_HONCHO) September 10, 2023

I was invited onto the UK-based Seahawks show the ’12 Talk Podcast’ this week. Check out our conversation below. It’s available from 7pm PT.

Check out my latest appearance with Puck Sports — we get into what I think are the big topics at the moment…