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My late-September thoughts on the 2027 draft class

September 28, 2026 /

We’re now four weeks into the college football season and we’re starting to get a clearer picture of what this class is (and isn’t).

I wanted to run through a few thoughts today…

Finally, reality is hitting with the quarterbacks

Todd McShay admitted on Saturday that the 2027 group is overrated. Other draft media pundits, who spent all summer telling everyone this would be a legendary class of quarterbacks, are similarly facing up to reality.

I don’t currently have a single quarterback graded firmly in round one. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss has the top ranking based on his performances so far — but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should be viewed as a clear top-10 (or even first round) pick. He has shown an ability to throw with anticipation, accuracy and timing. He has a decent arm. He’s incredibly elusive and can create magical plays. He best compares to Russell Wilson — yet Wilson was such a rare commodity, it will be difficult to determine exactly the range where Chambliss deserves to be placed. Luckily we have a lot more games to see before needing to make any conclusion.

Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestermaker, whilst throwing five interceptions in four games, is delivering a range of highly impressive passes that warrant attention. Currently, he should be second to Chambliss on the list.

Look at this throw against West Virginia. This is almost effortless from Mestermaker — with very little base, he delivers a perfect throw in a crowded pocket 50-yards downfield and hits Wyatt Young in stride, almost like it was a hand-off:

 
I’m willing to accept the high number of turnovers so far because Mestermaker is not an experienced starter. Depending on how this season plays out, he should consider staying at Oklahoma State for another season to continue his development. Yet there is clear natural throwing talent here, not to mention major athletic upside.

Here are some other throws from the West Virginia game:

He also had a 75-yard run against Oregon:

Despite my initial scepticism based on his North Texas tape, Mestermaker has a chance to make it. He will be an interesting one to follow in the coming weeks.

Saturday’s disgraceful hit by USC’s Desman Stephens on Oregon’s Dante Moore could, sadly, have lasting ramifications. An MRI scan came back negative but we’ll need to see how such a horrifying scene from Saturday’s game impacts Moore.

When he has been on the field, I still think he reminds me a little bit too much of Josh Freeman. He has the size and an arm but there’s very little ‘wow’ factor with his play, he is not a mad improviser and features very much within his system. He was poor against Oklahoma State — and although I find it hard to hold this against Moore personally, we should at least acknowledge that his backup, Dylan Raiola, similarly played a very efficient and productive brand of football within this offense. They didn’t miss a beat without him.

Darien Mensah is a neat and tidy player benefitting from the brilliance of Malachi Toney and a paper-thin schedule so far for Miami. For me, he remains the same mid-round talent everyone broadly considered him to be when he was at Duke a year ago. Toney is an exceptional talent and destined to be a top-five pick next year. Without Toney in the second half against Wake Forest, Mensah toiled. I wouldn’t consider him to be a high pick — and we’ve seen how recent Miami quarterbacks have elevated their stock beyond their means (see: Cam Ward).

Nico Iamaleava has not really had to push himself at UCLA, who are winning without their quarterback putting up big numbers. He is still a very naturally gifted player but it is difficult to watch him currently and feel like he warrants buzz as an early draft pick.

I wouldn’t expect CJ Carr to turn pro after two seasons starting at Notre Dame, unless they go on an epic playoff run, he excels and wishes to strike while the iron’s hot. Sam Leavitt can’t stay healthy, continues to turn the ball over and doesn’t look like a future NFL starter in my opinion. LaNorris Sellers is virtually undraftable at this stage, despite his physical talent, based on the way he is playing and has played over the last 12 months. His best choice would be to stay in school next year, try a change of scenery (probably Miami) and hope to rebuild his stock.

And then there’s Arch Manning. Finally the penny has dropped. As we’ve been saying for what feels like an eternity — if his name was Arch Smith, we wouldn’t be talking about him as an attractive NFL prospect. He continues to be hesitant and inaccurate, he badly lacks composure in the pocket, he makes some horrendous throws that lead to turnovers or near turnovers and we are seriously overestimating his athletic upside as a compensatory factor.

Let’s be clear — he’s a good athlete. He does not possess ‘elite’ tools. The way some people carry on you’d think we were watching Wyoming Josh Allen. Manning is not close to that level of physical upside — and this assumption that composure, timing and accuracy will emerge in time due to having two famous uncles and a grandfather means very little. Through one-and-a-bit seasons as the starter in Texas, he does not look like a future NFL starter. He’s not a first round pick, let alone a high first round pick.

Without major improvement, Manning should continue to earn a fortune playing college football — working to improve his game. I don’t think he will declare.

So that’s really it. Hardly the super-class of quarterbacks many were projecting as early as a fortnight ago.

The idea that bad NFL teams picking at the top of round one would squander the opportunity to draft an outstanding talent like Jeremiah Smith or Leonard Moore in preference of tapping into this quarterback group is insane.

Once again the media, so desperate for quarterback headlines, have hyped up a class and have let down their audience. How many times does this have to happen? Pick a ‘big name’ draft pundit. They virtually all had Manning in their top-five. It’s not good enough.

The good news about the 2027 draft

This is a very interesting class overall. We don’t need to force the quarterbacks into the narrative to create entertainment. We’re good.

I have tentative first or fringe first round grades on 26 players currently. I don’t even have some of the more hyped up players included within that list (eg, Cam Coleman, Trevor Goosby, Yhonzae Pierre — more on them later).

I also haven’t watched every player and there’s still time for new names to emerge or for others to improve their stock.

This is a massive difference to the last draft. It has the makings of a deep class with top-end talent in round one.

The receivers lead the way

Everyone knows about Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and frankly, he should be the #1 overall pick in 2027 and it shouldn’t even be a debate. Stop over-drafting quarterbacks for the sake of it and take the second coming of Julio Jones instead.

Behind Smith, there are a cluster of really talented alternatives.

Alabama’s Ryan Coleman-Williams remains a legit first round talent and, for me at least, WR2. I appreciate people will point to his drops — and I accept it’s a problem that needs rectifying. However, there simply aren’t many players like him on Planet Earth.

He is so incredibly dynamic, sudden and electrifying. Speed, quickness and agility wins in the NFL and RCW is just on a different level. You can see on the field his reported +23mph GPS speed, a 44-inch vertical and 11-2 broad. I genuinely believe he has the talent to be one of the NFL’s best playmakers.

There’s a great example from the weekend against South Carolina. Watch the video below. Initially, he shows a quick move to avoid any kind of contact with the LOS defender (who I don’t believe it trying to jam him — but if he was, RCW looks quick enough to beat it). In no time at all he’s in a position to occupy the safety’s attention. He perfectly pulls off a stutter-step then explodes towards the end zone. He’s open, he catches the football and it’s a 35-yard score:

Look at the quickness, look at the sharpness in how he operates (the initial move, the fake, the acceleration). This is stuff you can’t teach. Think of the top speed receivers in the league over the last decade — they share these kind of qualities.

There has been some improvement on the drops in the last three games (zero recorded). It’s still a concern to acknowledge, embrace and know it could be an issue at the next level. His catching technique needs a lot of work. Yet we’re talking about a player who would be a top-10 lock without this issue. I’m willing to spend a whole summer working on his one technical problem to unlock the unbelievable talent on offer. You don’t often get a chance to draft someone this good.

Ryan Coleman-Williams is rare. I am prepared to take a chance on rare. And this isn’t the over-used ‘rare qualities’ that loads of players get labelled with. I’m talking about a level of talent and upside that is only a notch below Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Toney within college football. If he falls due to the drops, I think good teams should be ready to roll the dice.

For what it’s worth, he is constantly praised for his maturity and he’s a team captain at Alabama.

I would also consider Ole Miss’ Deuce Alexander someone of great interest. Again, you can’t teach remarkable speed. His ability to explode off the snap and challenge defensive backs is not typical. If you sit deep in zone he will drive on his man and is a constant threat on the double-move, breaking back to the QB to accept the often offered deep cushion or he’ll simply run by you. He’s so sudden and quick he’s extremely difficult to cover over the middle and good luck covering him in man. He’s too fast. He can sell the deep route and break back inside with such quickness, he often leaves defenders in constant stress.

Look at this double-move against Florida:

For me, his speed/suddenness is good enough to call special and I think he warrants a lot more attention than he’s getting.

Indiana’s Charlie Becker and Oregon’s Evan Stewart also carry major intrigue. Becker has such a complete game — and while he doesn’t quite have the dynamism of Coleman-Williams and Alexander, he just does everything at a high level. Stewart, is another explosive athlete — a speed receiver who has returned this season and looks back to his best.

I think Rutgers’ KJ Duff, Arizona State’s Reed Harris, Florida State’s Duce Robinson, Texas’ Cam Coleman and Oklahoma State’s Wyatt Young are capable of getting into the mix — depending on how the rest of the year and testing plays out. Of the group, Coleman is the one who has flattered to deceive the most relative to his consensus draft stock. He clearly has some natural talent — I’m just not sure he has the special qualities.

This is a deep, talented class of receivers. It’s exciting.

Who looks like they could be a top-10 pick?

Aside from Jeremiah Smith and Leonard Moore — who should be #1 and #2 off the board if we take away the endless desperate need to overdraft quarterbacks — there are a few others making their case.

Texas pass rusher Colin Simmons had six sacks against Tennessee and is tailor made to be a top-end, high-quality NFL pass rusher. He has all of the tools required to make it big at the next level. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart is widely viewed as a prototype for the position — long, strong, quick. He is a factory made NFL EDGE.

Stewart’s stock has taken a knock this week after he was suspended indefinitely by the Gamecocks for a petulant display against Alabama. He was slow coming off the field at times, angering his Head Coach. He refused to be subbed out of the game at one point. On another, he was heading to the bench and had to be ushered back to the sideline by a coach. Then he punched an Alabama player.

I spoke to a well-placed source recently who suggested that there’s a view some share that he’s not the sharpest tool in the box. Evidence for this is stuff like his ridiculous ‘machine gun’ celebration as he stood over Jaxson Dart, which you can see in the video below along with the issues from Saturday:

As of right now, I wouldn’t expect this to have much impact on Stewart’s stock. To me this feels a lot like a maturity issue, perhaps mixed in with some entitlement as a player who has been talked about as a future high pick since leaving High School. I would imagine he’s also very well paid.

There simply aren’t many players with his talent and physique. So unless this situation escalates, I would imagine teams will eventually dig deep into his personality, he will work overtime to repair his image and he will still be taken very early. We’ll see.

Simmons, meanwhile, provoked his mother to apologise on social media after a bizarre urinating celebration after one of his sacks against Tennessee. Goodness knows what he was thinking — but it provoked a penalty flag and he too may have some maturing to do. Even so — both have to be considered as likely top-10 picks alongside Smith and Moore.

Georgia linebacker Chris Cole is going to be a top-10 pick. I am absolutely certain of that. There are simply not many players capable of doing what he can do on a football field. His closing speed has to be seen to be believed — he gallops like a race horse. He could set records for his position in the forty at the combine. He can cover 1v1, carry the seam, drop immediately to eliminate throwing lanes. He only missed four tackles in 2025 (although he missed two against Oklahoma at the weekend, his first misses of the season). His pursuit skills are reminiscent of an Apex Predator chasing down its prey. When he reaches the point of contact, if you’re square on, he won’t take any prisoners.

His interviews are also very impressive — he is a charming individual and speaks very well. I am completely sure the NFL will see him as a can’t-miss prospect.

Rest assured John Schneider will have been very impressed, given he reportedly attended the Oklahoma vs Georgia game in person.

Ole Miss defensive tackle Will Echoles might’ve struggled, along with everyone else, to get an angle on the Florida Gators’ running attack on Saturday. Despite that, he has all of the characteristics of a highly draftable interior defender.

Kewan Lacy (RB, Ole Miss), Jadan Baugh (RB, Florida) and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asu (LB, Notre Dame) can all make a case to be among the ten-or-so most talented draft-eligible players for 2027 — yet positional value could work against them. All three are exceptional talents.

Who else is standing out?

Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson looks every bit as good as LSU’s Trey’Dez Green. Both are excellent talents as receivers. Johnson needs to play consistently for the rest of the season to secure a high, likely legit first round grade. Against USC at the weekend he was absolutely phenomenal. He hurdled defenders, pulled off a miraculous one-handed grab, busted seams galore and was virtually uncoverable.

He’s capable of making people miss in the open field and accelerating away from defenders — this is not typical for a tight end. He’s such a threat in the long red zone. He consistently creates separation against defensive backs and he even has YAC potential. He looks like a special athlete and even his blocking looks decent at times.

If you want to watch what was virtually a perfect game by a college football player, go and watch his tape from Saturday.

Green needs to return from his knee injury and at least show some improvement as an in-line blocker. However, he is also an extremely rare physical talent (6-7, 240lbs). Both could easily end up being top-20 picks.

Mississippi State cornerback Kelley Jones is one of the most underrated players in college football. He has immense size but isn’t stiff with it. Typically when you’re 6-4 and pushing 200lbs at cornerback, you’re going to see some hip-stiffness or a lack of an ability to transition with speed and smoothness. Here’s some of his snaps from Saturday against Missouri:

I had Jones as a fringe first rounder for 2026 and was surprised he didn’t declare. He’s playing even better this season — and you can see he’s loving his football at the moment. Of all the players on that upstart Mississippi State team, he’s the one bouncing around after big moments and appearing fired up.

Alabama’s Zabien Brown is also showing genuine signs of first round potential, whilst Clemson’s Ashton Hampton and Georgia’s Ellis Robinson IV can certainly get into the mix if they continue to play the way they have in the first month of the season. I’ve watched three games of all three so far and came away impressed. At safety, Georgia’s KJ Bolden and California’s Kingston Lopa have been standouts. Both have good size and Lopa in particular has been a playmaking machine.

LSU’s Jordan Seaton is currently the only offensive tackle I’ve watched with clear first round traits and/or the ability to remain on the left hand side. His ability to kick-slide with ease, compete with top-end athleticism and look like a legit NFL blind-side blocker have him in the first round mix if he can play with greater consistency and develop an edge. I think Iowa duo Kade Pieper and Trevor Lauck can both be top-40 players, although Pieper might end up converting from right guard to center and Lauck from left tackle to guard.

Miami’s Justin Scott has a lot of potential and British-born Emmanuel Oyebadejo has sensational physical potential. Both players just need to make more splash plays over the coming weeks.

Players who look like they could emerge as solid NFL starters

Alabama’s Yhonzae Pierre and Ohio State’s Kenyatta Jackson both look the part. They are big EDGE defenders with Demarcus Lawrence-style builds. Either could interest the Seahawks to fill the void when Lawrence retires at the end of the season. However — they need to show they are in Lawrence’s range for testing (1.63 10-yard split).

On tape, neither player is a dynamic, twitched up pass-rusher. They don’t have the great ankle flexion to bend-and-straighten at a top-end level. Neither do they possess exceptional quickness and burst off the snap. However, they will do a very solid, dependable job at OLB or EDGE defending the run, with the ability to provide some pressure from a starting position outside. They might be solid not spectacular — but there’s a value in that.

I don’t currently view Pittsburgh’s Ryan Baer, Texas’ Trevor Goosby or USC’s Elijah Paige as first round offensive tackle prospects — but all can come into the league, even if it’s at right tackle rather than the critical blind-side position, and possibly become capable starters. Indiana’s Carter Smith and Ohio State’s Austin Siereveld look like very capable guard converts (Siereveld shifted to guard this year — but moved to right tackle recently due to injuries).

Mark Fletcher at Miami and LJ Martin at Boise State are both very interesting potential day-two starters at running back, while I think people are sleeping on Ohio State safety Earl Little Jr.

I’m eager to see more from Virginia Tech tight end Luke Reynolds.

LSU’s dynamic speed-rusher Princewill Umanmielen is showing the potential to act in a rotational role as a likely day-two prospect, while Alabama’s Devan Thompkins has flashed a few times — certainly enough to make him intriguing. Will Heldt (EDGE, Clemson) is productive, long and has talent — but I’m finding it hard to determine what his actual upside is. Testing will help.

Who are the overrated players?

Most of the quarterback class, for starters.

A’mauri Washington (DT, Oregon) is a great athlete for his size but he’s not much of a football player. There’s a lot of mediocre or bad tape to go with the occasional splash play. I’m not sure we’re seeing much more than mid-round qualities from a number of talked-up defensive linemen (Clev Lubin, John Henry Daley, Matayo Uiagalelei, Damon Wilson, Bear Alexander, Ahman Moten Jr, Quincy Rhodes Jr).

Instant: Seahawks winning streak ends in slop-fest in Washington

September 27, 2026 /

This was an uncharacteristically poor performance from the Seahawks. Three turnovers, all converted into touchdowns by Washington, essentially decided the game.

Seattle’s defense — which was put under pressure by the offense turning the ball over — couldn’t muster a big play to flip the momentum — whether that was a turnover of their own, or a key stop at the end when two third down conversions iced the contest.

It created an odd situation where it always felt like the Commanders were in control and deserved to win — yet clearly the Seahawks contributed massively to their own downfall.

It was surprising they couldn’t have more success against a banged-up Washington team missing key players, while also losing Leo Chenal during the game. Yes, the Seahawks badly missed Julian Love. Yet it never felt like the Seahawks truly maxed out the losses on the Commanders’ roster.

Even so — they should be able to rally after this and come fighting back. They did a year ago after each of their defeats. There’s no reason to think that won’t be the same again this time.

After all, they still possess arguably the best current player in football in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and they have enough proven, big-game players to make this a one-off disappointment.

However, there are some concerning issues emerging that could derail any hopes of the 2026 Seahawks going on a similar run to last year.

The first one is the situation at running back and the running game in general. It has stuttered to start the season, aside from at the end of the Cardinals game when the white flags were being waved.

Jadarian Price has fumbled twice. His latest mistake put him in the doghouse today — but it became quickly apparent that Emmanuel Wilson, try as he might, simply isn’t going to be able to carry this running attack or produce much of anything short of a few power runs up the gut. The way he was easily chased down by Chenal on a promising outside run in the red-zone was a great example of his limitations.

When Zach Charbonnet returns — and the Seahawks must be hoping that’s sooner rather than later — it might be a moot point and they can get back on track. In the meantime however, the Seahawks have a problem.

They used their biggest off-season asset on Price. When you spend a high pick on a runner, it typically comes with the expectation they will produce quickly. They didn’t draft him for three years down the line. He had to be a direct replacement for the departed Ken Walker.

While Walker continues to thrive in Kansas City (two more touchdowns today), Price was in a raincoat watching Wilson plod for 1.6 yards per carry.

Simply put — he has to fix his fumbling problem pronto. And the Seahawks then need to commit more to him, to try and get some production out of their top pick. He has to provide the kind of juice that Wilson isn’t capable of, to provide a dynamic spark to get things going with the running game.

In many ways, they’ve kind of made their bed and have to sleep in it now. He fumbled three times last year for Notre Dame in limited reps. We knew this was a thing. We also knew Walker and Charbonnet hardly ever fumbled. Now that you’ve drafted Price as high as you have — don’t you have to run him, for better or worse? Don’t you have to use the dynamic back you made a big commitment to?

You’re not benching the defensive backs for a badly timed pass-interference or Sam Darnold for a bad pick-six. This is the path they have chosen, shouldn’t they stick to the plan — rather than put Price on the sideline, while a lesser talent basically takes away any running threat?

Having taken no reps during pre-season — does he have to take his lumps now in the regular season? Is that not the decision you’ve taken?

A year ago it felt somewhat inevitable that they’d fix the running game. Walker and Charbonnet were too talented, the Shanahan system too productive for things not to click. And they did. Right now, it’s harder to be confident a turnaround is coming — and the Seahawks, short of that final quarter against Arizona, have been pretty one-dimensional so far.

Some of that is on the blocking too. It has to be better.

There are two other curious talking points.

Rashid Shaheed had two catches for 14 yards today. In three games he now has six catches for 53 yards. He has no meaningful returns on special teams.

This is a problem.

They appear further away than ever to finding a consistent, productive role for him on offense. Now — every target could and should initially be aimed towards the brilliant Smith-Njigba. But other players — Cooper Kupp, and today AJ Barner — are finding ways to be involved. Shaheed’s most impactful play was a roughing flag for a hit to the helmet he earned on an incomplete pass.

It’s especially challenging when Shaheed is now earning $17m a year. People are eventually going to point to the fact Ken Walker’s contract in Kansas City is worth $14.4m a year and wonder if they got this decision right.

John Schneider has rightly been lauded for his team building and whatever happened this year doesn’t change anything. But it’s also OK to approve and trust any move he makes — then in time, wonder if he got it right. It’s at least fair to wonder right now whether the Seahawks would be better fielding Walker as a focal point in the backfield, while having their top pick in the draft to use elsewhere (pass-rusher? receiver? cornerback?) working around replacing Shaheed (who would’ve brought back a comp-pick).

Finally, the pass-rush. There’s no doubting the Seahawks have major talents in the interior and they are still producing. Do they have enough juice off the egde?

The likes of Derick Hall, DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu all do an admirable job. None are flying off the edge, however, and producing quick wins or it feels like consistent pressure. Dante Fowler has been fairly anonymous through three games.

This felt like an area they had to add to in the off-season and I’m not sure they’ve done enough. Next season it’s plausible only Hall will remain under contract from the four. What then? Would it have been wise to add some youth and quickness to the group via the draft, to have that now and also for the future? Maybe.

Perhaps it wouldn’t have mattered with Love starting today? Or if the offense didn’t turn the ball over three times? It might not feel like it but the defense contained Washington to four yards per play today. They more or less did their job, apart from producing a key turnover or third-down stop at the end.

It does still feel like they’re missing some speed off the edge though.

I don’t want to second-guess too much after one loss, following a 12-game winning streak. But staying at the top of the tree is incredibly difficult and watching that today shows why.

The Seahawks won a Super Bowl playing excellent football in all three phases. Today, they had issues in all three phases and are faced with finding answers ahead of some big upcoming games.

Curtis Allen’s Watch Points (Week Three vs Washington)

September 27, 2026 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

This game is quite similar to last year’s Week Nine matchup.

The Commanders came into the game 3-5, struggling to keep their heads above water in the NFC playoff race.  They had key players hurt and their defense was an absolute mess.

The Seahawks on the other hand were 5-2 and coming off a strange bye week.  Some players had been hurt during the week off.  They utilized their depth and were ready to start a dominant run.

The game was over by halftime.  Sam Darnold sliced up the Commanders’ defense, going 21-of-24 with four touchdown passes.  It helped that Washington’s pass rush only recorded one – one! – pressure for a barely-registering 4.2% pressure rate.  Team depth players shined, as Ty Okada, Tory Horton, Elijah Arroyo, Cody White and Brandon Pili all made key contributions.

Jayden Daniels hyperextended his left elbow and left the game.

This year, the Commanders are 0-2 and have one of the NFL’s worst defenses again.  They are badly banged up.  Daniels injured his elbow in the same way last week, so Marcus Mariota will be starting in his place.  Also ruled out are several starters and key contributors:  RG Sam Cosmi, TE Chig Okwonko, OLB Frankie Luvu and Safety Nick Cross.

The Seahawks are 2-0 coming off a dominant win against the Cardinals.  Their depth will be deployed, as Anthony Bradford, Julian Love and Ty Okada will be out.

Defending Mariota

With Daniels out, Marcus Mariota steps in.  Mariota is one of the NFL’s better backup Quarterbacks.  A performance similar to Drew Lock’s in the last two games is not out of the question.  Particularly if he is allowed to get into a rhythm.

The biggest change to the offense when Daniels goes out and Mariota comes in is the focus.

Daniels makes throws to be sure — but he also tends to let his talented Wide Receivers clear some room so he can run and dance his way through the defense on the ground.  He is by far the most effective rusher on the Commanders and he sort of pulls everyone else into his orbit.

By contrast, Mariota knows his role.  It is much more of a traditional Quarterback.  His job is to get the ball to the talent.  He uses his legs mostly to buy time in the pocket while keeping his head up to find a target.

The Commanders have one of the league’s deeper Wide Receiver corps — Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown lead the way.  Treylon Burks and Antonio Williams round out the group and there is not much of a drop-off when they are targeted.

Mariota will act as a distributor of the ball — and not just with checkdowns.  He is able to make good, accurate throws down the field.

After Daniels got hurt last week, Mariota came out firing in the second half.  He found McLaurin for an explosive play and dropped a beautiful 29-yard pass into Dyami Brown but just barely was out of bounds.

On the next drive, down by two touchdowns, the Commanders resorted to trick plays, asking their Wide Receivers to complete passes.  Neither worked and they settled for a field goal try, which was missed.  They may try them again, but their best bet is to get Mariota comfortable.

The Seahawks cannot allow that.

The play is to use their talented advantage in the trenches to keep him out of rhythm.  The Commanders are down their two best Offensive Lineman in Laremy Tunsil and Sam Cosmi.  Their depth is poor, particularly when you consider the depth of the Defensive Line the Seahawks will roll out.

Their trademark blend of getting pressure with four and mixing in a timely blitz should provide them a decided advantage.

Control the Game with the Pass

I wrote this exact game plan for Week Nine last year and that worked very effectively.  Sam Darnold was crisp, decisive and punished the Commanders’ defensive backfield ruthlessly.

Look at this throw to Elijah Arroyo.  Darnold could not have delivered that any better and the defenders are helplessly flailing at the ball.

Oddly enough, the Commanders have not addressed the situation.  Corner Mike Sainristil and Safety Quan Martin are currently two of the worst pass defenders in the NFL.  They will be facing Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tory Horton, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner and Arroyo.  That is just unfair.

Frankie Luvu will not be playing to provide second-level pass coverage nor rush the passer effectively.  Daron Payne has not been the same player, come to think of it, since he said “Who is that?” when asked about Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

There may be a fan temptation to baby Sam Darnold a bit.  But the numbers and the talent advantage clearly say the Seahawks should take this game to the air.

They are conceding 6.1 yards per play and have allowed seven passing touchdowns.  They are blitzing 36% of the time as an effort to disguise their horrendous backfield.

It is “working” in the sense that they are achieving better results than when they do not blitz.  When they do not blitz the results are ghastly:

It is a small sample size to be sure but the Commanders have one sack, concede an 80% completion rate and are giving up a near-perfect passer rating when they do not blitz.

If Darnold can find his hot reads when blitzed – perhaps making use of the mismatches he has at the Tight End position – this defense will not have answers.

Attacking this defense on the ground will not be an afterthought but the play is to take to the air, get a lead that the Commanders will struggle to keep up with and then pound the ball to run out the clock.

College football scouting notes & open thread: 26th September

September 26, 2026 /

I’m opening this post so people can follow along today’s college football schedule — but I also wanted to share some notes.

The Northwestern vs Indiana game was particularly competitive and interesting and a couple of draft eligible players really stood out.

I’m eager to watch more of Indiana running back Lee Beebe Jr. He has ideal size (5-10, 215lbs) with a thick, sturdy frame. He showed an ability to get skinny through the smallest of holes in the O-line to sneak through and explode to the second level. He uses a wide gait to scamper away from tackles and stretch out runs. He was quick into the hole with no hesitation to capitalise on opportunities. He showed good contact balance, enough speed to make big runs and a shiftiness 1v1 to produce some elusiveness and make people miss. There’s a lot to like here and I want to watch more.

I was also impressed with Northwestern receiver Griffin Wilde. I’ve gone back and tracked a few of his games this morning. He’s not going to be a high pick but he’s the type of mid/late round receiver who could stick in the league.

Wilde tracks the ball ever so well. His build is unusual for the position — he’s thick with a dense frame at 6-2 and 200lbs. He’s not a vertical threat with his speed and there’s a lack of suddenness. However, he possesses good body control and combines it with solid hands to complete difficult catches.

He concentrates perfectly when the ball is in the air to track and make challenging grabs. When covered he still makes catches under pressure — which is key because he’s not a big separation-creator. He’s willing to run across the middle and fight for catches.

Against Indiana he showed excellent control and leaping ability to go up and make a red zone catch. He got up in the air so high, caught the football and then got both feet down. It was an improbable touchdown catch — given the small amount of space he had to work in.

There’s nothing wrong with his route-running and he’ll use a head-fake to deceive cornerbacks. He just doesn’t have the quickness and speed to truly threaten with suddenness.

He mixes between the slot and outside corner with almost an even split. He seemed to thrive playing with Aidan Chiles who played as well as I’ve ever seen him play — to the extent I’d like to see more of him later this season.

Overall I’ve done more scouting in the three weeks than I’ve ever completed before the end of September and already have thousands of words of notes. I’ll begin to start publishing some positional breakdowns in the coming days.

I’ll probably start at wide receiver because it’s a particularly strong position group again. I’ll probably also do a stream/video soon talking through some of the players I like in this class.

Draft notes from week three of the college football season

September 23, 2026 /

Trinidad Chambliss shows why he is currently QB1

The point I’ve kept repeating during the early stages of the college football season is draft media are hopelessly building up and overrating the quarterback class.

For example, Todd McShay had LaNorris Sellers as the ninth best player on his big board last week, with Sam Leavitt at #20. Neither player is remotely close to being a first round prospect at this stage. A fifth of the players in the top-50 were quarterbacks — yet the chance of players like Demond Williams and Jayden Maiava going in that range are remote.

You can easily say the same about Arch Manning — universally projected in the top-five by most draft pundits and regularly talked about as a possible first overall pick — the reality is quite different (we’ll come back to Arch later).

The one player who is playing well enough to warrant some hype is Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss. His rapid rise over the last 12 months has been highly impressive. He’s gone from small school prospect to backing up Austin Simmons, getting an opportunity to start when Simmons was injured, excelling to the point he won the starter’s gig full time and he hasn’t looked back.

With every game he gets a little bit better. He excelled during the playoffs last year, almost dragging Ole Miss to the College Football Playoff final.

This year the progress has continued. He is making passes all of the other ‘big name’ draft eligible quarterbacks can only dream of. You’re seeing throws with anticipation, timing and zero hesitation. He’s creative, he’s making plays over the middle of the field and he’s delivering complex, layered throws. He has a good arm. He’s a playmaking machine — and it culminated in Ole Miss beating Lane Kiffin’s LSU on Saturday in what is probably an all-time win for the school.

This was a masterclass performance.

I’m going to post some clips in a moment but a few key drives and plays stood out. For example, with one minute to go in the first half — LSU has just scored to fight their way back into the game. Chambliss responded with a quick-fire drive of his own, ending with a touchdown pass with just five seconds to go.

He was consistently strong on third downs. It’s been put to me by people far more experienced than I am that this is one of the key things to look out for when scouting quarterbacks. One veteran evaluator told me he won’t even scout a quarterback fully until he’s watched every third down throw they’ve ever made, to determine whether it’s worth watching anything else. He would’ve enjoyed Chambliss’ tape on Saturday.

There was one play where he had a panicked scramble and looked for sure like he was going to be sacked for a big loss. Half the LSU defense was chasing him down. Instead he managed to extend just enough, then threw a crazy little flip-pass to a team-mate, who was able to scamper for a first down. It was classic peak-Russell Wilson escapism and playmaking:

He scored a brilliant scrambling touchdown to give Ole Miss the lead late in the game. He had a lot to do to get around the edge and out-run the defense. But he did it. It capped an excellent, high pressure drive after LSU had come roaring back in the game and threatened to steal it.

Let’s look at some clips.

On this first throw — you have to deliver this on time and with the right velocity. If you pause the video you see his arm is going back to throw as the receiver makes his break in the route. You have a second defensive back peeling off his man, noticing what the play-call is, so if this is in any way inaccurate or late, it’s dangerous. This is a NFL throw:

The next clip shows off top-level composure. He is scrambling around with a defensive lineman stalking him in close proximity. He has to retreat to buy time, yet keeps his eyes downfield. Most quarterbacks, even at the NFL level, panic in this situation and either take a big sack, drop their eyes to try and scramble, or they make a horrible mistake throwing without base. Chambliss can see his tight end uncover and is wide open — so now he just needs the angle to throw. He runs to the right and throws back across his body, safely, with the necessary torque to deliver a first down. There are not many players who can do this:

The final clip I want to highlight is the first one in the reel below. He steps up into the pocket because extending doesn’t always mean bouncing to the outside. He buys himself some time by stepping up, sees the receiver uncovering in the end zone and on the run, fires it into him for a touchdown:

It wasn’t a flawless performance. The interception at the start of the second half was really bad. He was far too aggressive as he’s being hit during a heavy blitz. Just take the sack. Don’t turn it over. There was no good outcome here and it was clear very early off the snap that LSU had won the down. He threw blind into coverage and it was costly.

Even so — we’re talking about a quarterback who is consistently improving with every start. He is elevating his team not unlike Cam Newton did at Auburn — making them a legitimate contender. Without him, Ole Miss are not a serious threat. He is playing with timing and precision yet also delivering with magical creativity and making the unlikely possible.

Nobody else is at this level. It shouldn’t even be a discussion who QB1 is for 2027 as we sit here today on the 23rd September. It doesn’t matter if Dante Moore is a bit taller, or Arch Manning has a better second name. Neither is playing very well and Chambliss is putting electrifying tape on record.

I’m not going to rush to say he’s a legit first round prospect at this stage. There’s no point jumping to that conclusion. There are still weeks to go in this college season. Let’s see what happens over the next six weeks and reassess.

This need to place and rank players prematurely is how we get people suggesting Cade Klubnik could be QB1 a year ago. Let’s take a breath.

However, it shouldn’t be remotely debatable at this point who is playing the best among the draft eligible quarterbacks, showing off the greatest range of NFL skills. It’s Trinidad Chambliss — and he’s lapping the field at this point.

Other notes from LSU vs Ole Miss

— Ole Miss defensive tackle Will Echoles showed why he could easily be a top-10 pick next year. He had one sack and three TFL’s. He flashed a highly disruptive bull-rush, driving blockers back into the pocket. He has a dynamic arm/over move and a burst of quickness unusual for a man his size. He was swatting away blockers with a thunderous swipe but then combined it with agility and foot-speed to get around linemen to pressure the quarterback. When he beat the initial block and LSU had a running back in as a last line of defense, he’d just blast them out of the way. He can play one, three or five technique. He finished with seven total pressures and six hurries. A top prospect for 2027. This is what a very high pick at defensive tackle looks like:

— Echoles’ team-mate Kam Franklin had a big game against Louisville and he flashed again against LSU. He had the final significant play of the game by tipping the ball at the LOS leading to a game-clinching interception. He also had a TFL, six pressures and six hurries. He definitely looks like a NFL player I just wonder about his quickness and upside for the next level. Testing could be key for him.

— Trey’Dez Green, the LSU tight end/big receiver, left the game with what looked like a serious knee injury. The latest news is he will miss some times but it’s not season-ending. He’s a very exciting receiving prospect with great size and mobility. He can be an X-factor weapon at the next level as a pass-catcher. However, he has to get stronger and bigger to block the perimeter, otherwise he’s going to be limited to being a big target. The idea of players like this can sometimes seem better than the reality. How many 6-7, 240lbs receivers are there? He’s really quick and dynamic for his size but he isn’t likely to act as a conventional receiver. He has to show at least some semblance of ability to block to max-out his potential as one of the more interesting tight ends to enter the league in recent history. For every Jimmy Graham (mostly a receiver) there’s an Eric Ebron or Kyle Pitts — who never really live up to expectations.

— LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt can at times be really fun to watch. He’ll scramble around, extend plays, he’s a better runner than you’d expect. Yet he’s far too quick to bail on the pocket and he doesn’t have NFL physical tools. His play is fairly up-and-down. In this game he had an excellent third down throw with perfect placement to the right corner of the end-zone. It followed a play just before where he missed two wide open receivers. He’s thrown five interceptions in just three games.

— Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy left the game with an injury and he’s considered a game-time decision for Florida on Saturday. He is a legit player. Meanwhile, receiver Deuce Alexander continues to show promise. He’s incredibly quick and catches away from his body. He can challenge receivers on the outside downfield but can still run over the middle and make catches in traffic. He’s reasonably well sized and showed in this game he’s a willing blocker. He looks like someone with a NFL future — especially with his sprinters speed.

We shouldn’t even be talking about the NFL Draft for LaNorris Sellers

There’s absolutely no doubt the South Carolina quarterback has physical talent. However, he endured a miserable season last year — in part due to a shambolic offensive line. This season was supposed to be different. There were changes up front and a new offensive coordinator, with Kendal Briles brought in to produce an offense like the one his father made popular at Baylor during the Robert Griffin III era.

Unfortunately, he simply isn’t progressing. If Trinidad Chambliss has shown remarkable and sustained growth as a quarterback at Ole Miss — Sellers is stuck with his wheels spinning in the mud.

Firstly, I don’t much like the new offense. It’s a ton of read-option and he’s more or less asked to run around and see what happens. Take off if it’s there, throw if you see an option. It’s not remotely close to a pro-system, meaning he isn’t developing the kind of skills required to judge him for the next level. They’re just setting up a system where his legs and arm *might* be able to make a difference.

He was bailed out of an ugly interception early in the game against Mississippi State. He was in the red zone and threw straight to a spy stood in the way of the intended target over the middle. A very fortunate hands-to-the-face-penalty took the pick off the board. How did he not see the defender stood right in the way? In fact, there were three defenders blocking the intended target:

He nearly threw another interception forcing a third down pass on a slant. It was an awful late throw, delivered behind the receiver and was dropped by the defensive back.

Eventually his luck ran out. With around six minutes left in the third quarter he benefited from good protection. He sat in the pocket — with two wide open receivers on a post and a deep cross. Instead he threw it straight to a sitting defender. You’ve got to loft that pass over him. It’s an awful throw — the kind you simply cannot make if you expect to be given a draftable grade.

His second interception was even worse. It’s 3rd and 10 and he looks to the right sideline then just throws it straight to a defender. It’s never on. What on earth is he looking at? How do you not see the defender breaking right in front of the target? He didn’t even zip it in there to make sure — he floated the pass right to the defender:

Overall he had five turnover worthy plays in the game and only one big-time throw.

He is a classic example of a player emerging early in their college career, people talk them up as a ‘down the line’ draft prospect — yet when they show no development or even regress, people don’t adjust their takes. Sellers should not have been highlighted by the media as anything but an interesting player to see if he can rebuild his stock after a challenging 2025. Instead, we had people naming him as a star within this “loaded” quarterback class.

He isn’t a draftable player currently. That can change in the future — this season or next, whether that’s at South Carolina or somewhere else. But he is not a high draft pick like many have suggested based on his play in 2025 and 2026 so far.

Other notes from Mississippi State vs South Carolina

— Mississippi State’s Junior OLB Amaree Williams — a transfer from Florida State — was the top performing defensive player on the field. At his weight (approximately 240lbs) he did a great job blowing up run plays, setting an edge and playing with consistent physicality. Had a sack and two TFL’s — plus led his team in tackles with 10 (all solo, per ESPN). He’s a former tight end who caught three touchdowns for FSU. He also dropped into coverage well. This is a player to keep an eye on.

— Cornerback Kelly Jones wasn’t even tested until the fourth quarter, which speaks to how opponents are treating him. South Carolina threw at him twice, with no completions. Teams are 37% throwing at him so far this year. He’s big but mobile for his size. He’s not cumbersome and can change direction. He played with his arm in a cast. He’s a player I really enjoy watching and he’s a fascinating draft prospect for 2027.

— When I’ve spoken to people I respect within football, they wax lyrical about Dylan Stewart’s potential and believe he will be a high first round pick. The South Carolina pass rusher returned to play in this game and had some splash plays. He created a pressure on his first snap. He slammed into a pulling guard, stopped him, then made the TFL on the running back in a highlight-reel moment. He drew a holding call at the start of the second half on a run to the outside. He was grabbed by the left tackle and basically hugged to prevent him setting the edge. He did have his snaps managed in the game. The expectation is he will be a very high pick next year due to his length, quickness and power.

Arch Manning continues to struggle — can we just be honest about him?

Draft media needs to give up the ghost. Manning either isn’t as good as they’re telling you — or he isn’t ready. Either way, he’s not playing like anything close to a first round pick. My prediction continues to be that he won’t declare unless things change between now and the new year.

He completed only 50% of his passes against UTSA on Saturday. There was the usual mix of off-target throws, hesitation, being too keen to set off and run and limited throws of a pro-standard. He had zero big-time throws against a non-elite opponent and one turnover worthy play.

Look at these two throws — the first is his first pass of the day, the second was not long after:

 

I understand why the media want a Manning in the draft next year. I understand why fans, having been sold a bag of magic beans by the media, are investing their hopes and dreams in Manning saving their franchise. It’s fake news for now — as is the case with this quarterback class overall.

Notes from Florida State vs Alabama

This was my first opportunity this season to get a good look at FSU receiver Duce Robinson. He has a good frame with decent size. His body control for his size stands out. This was evident on his touchdown — you see his ability to stay in control and keep his feet in bounds:

He can cross the face of the defender well and used his strength vs Alabama to win 1v1. He catches the ball well away from his body.

If you don’t disrupt his route early with a jam he can release and create separation nicely on quick-hitting slants. When he was jammed in the fourth quarter he couldn’t get into his flow and the pass was broken up and nearly intercepted on a deflection. He didn’t box-out and never gave the QB a target. Finding a way to use his size consistently and make life easier for his quarterback is key.

His long-speed is a question mark. However, he had a nice long reception where he did create some separation then tracked the ball brilliantly. He had to slow down to adjust and make the catch. The throw brought the cornerback back into play but despite the contested nature of the grab, he came down with it. Good concentration.

He’s a player I will continue to watch.

For Alabama, Ryan Coleman-Williams had his first catch with six minutes left in the first half. It was a dump off on fourth and 2 when they were trailing 21-6. At the time I kept thinking — why is he not a bigger part of the gameplan? You’ve got to at least try and get him the ball.

His second catch was a swing pass after he ran across the formation. As soon as the ball was in his hands he ran 50 yards for a TD — dodging and weaving through defenders and accelerating away from others. He showed he is a truly dynamic, sudden, explosive athlete. He has special qualities and electric speed:

Look at the acceleration as he burns off the last few defenders. You can work with that in the NFL.

It’s the hands that are the problem. If he had good catching technique he could be a top-10 pick. Yet he’s a mile away from having passable hands for that kind of range. If he can fix that issue, he will become one of the top players in this class. In order to do that though, Alabama will have to find more ways to get him the football than they showed here.

Defensively, I don’t understand why Alabama rotated Yhonzae Pierre and Devan Thompkins as much as they did.

Pierre looks the part and has stalking speed. I’m just not sure he’s much of an actual playmaker. He can play within structure as a big OLB. He’s far from a sack artist and he lacks great ankle flexion to create quick pressure. Even so, he had six pressures and six hurries in the game but also missed two tackles.

Thompkins played mostly inside this week after playing end last weekend. He was very active but didn’t have any quick wins with speed. He still needs to refine his arm/over and develop some better interior moves. He does play to the sideline and keeps going to the whistle.

In the fourth quarter Thompkins started to line up off the EDGE. He had a clean-up/hussle sack with 14:23 to go. Again, he was just playing until the end of the play. He led Alabama in tackles, had five pressures and had four hurries.

Pierre and Thompkins feel like the heart of Alabama’s defensive front seven. They will be in some big games moving forward — so keep an eye on them.

Big defensive tackle Terrance Green completely destroyed the interior O-line with one forceful bull-rush. The guard lost his footing and stumbled backwards, enabling Green to win. I want to watch more of him.

Safety Keon Sabb had an excellent play to tip a pass enabling a cornerback to pick it off on the rebound. I find it challenging to place a grade on Sabb having watched a lot of him since the start of last season. I’m not sure I’ll come to a conclusion until I see testing numbers.

Can we have some perspective on Darian Mensah?

I couldn’t believe he was made the Heisman favourite, or that people were suddenly talking about him as a top-five pick. Nobody was saying that during his time at Duke.

I understand why he’s getting attention. Miami has become the school to go and boost your stock as a quarterback. They protect well, they have skill players for days and they run the ball. Cam Ward and Carson Beck have elevated their stock beyond what is probably reasonable courtesy of playing for Miami in a poor ACC.

Mensah is technically sound and has some mobility. His arm is good enough. He’s not too big. As he was a year ago — he’d be a solid mid-round flyer.

Let’s stop with the Heisman and early round one talk though. Firstly, Malachi Toney is the real star. Mensah basically just has to look for him, wait for him to get open and throw him the ball. Toney is a superstar. He might have more talent than Jeremiah Smith. He can play in the NFL tomorrow. Mensah often just has to hold a safety to allow Toney to release, then come back to his #1 target.

If anyone is winning the Heisman from Miami, it should be Toney.

Once he got hurt at half-time against Wake Forest and was only used on third downs, Miami’s offense completely stalled. Mensah suddenly looked very average. Situations matter — and there’s a reason Mensah fought so hard to be transferred to the Hurricanes.

A nice player with a future in the league (even if it’s as a backup) but let’s keep some perspective here.

Meanwhile, Miami running back Mark Fletcher was a blog favourite from the end of last season. He had a good showing against Wake Forest — in particular this beast of a run:

Other quick notes

— Earlier today I interviewed Emmanuel Oyebadejo — a 6-7, 300lbs defensive lineman for the Florida Gators. He is originally from Manchester in England. I’m hoping the BBC will put the interview out this week. There is a lot of excitement that he could be Britain’s first ever first round draft pick. There are simply not many people on Earth who can move as well as he can at his size. It’s also said that he has around 36-inch arms and will test through the roof. He was brilliant against Auburn (see the clips below). The temptation is to say players like this are ‘raw’ because they’re relatively new to the game but here’s what the video below shows — the power to demolish an SEC left tackle off the edge, a brilliant swim move to win inside, bending round the edge to get a sack (not the tightest bend but he is 300lbs), the quickness to attack the outside shoulder of a guard and just flat out win and bench-pressing the tackle to set the edge and keep his frame clean. What a fascinating chess-piece he is and he’ll be an exciting player to have on your radar. Florida faces Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss at the weekend.

— There was another interception for California safety Kingston Lopa, taking him to five for the season already. He also led Cal in tackles against Wagner. We noted last week his range, versatility, quickness and playmaking instinct. He is certainly capable of being a very interesting draft prospect for 2027, having transferred from Oregon.

— Kentucky defensive lineman Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace also followed up a good performance last week by helping the Wildcats defeat Texas A&M. He had five pressures and five hurries in the game and while he isn’t likely to trouble the early rounds of the draft, he has an intriguing skill-set that will give him a chance to be on the radar of NFL teams.

— UCLA had a shoot-out against Purdue and while we’re still really waiting for Nico Iamaleava to reach a consistent level of performance delivering on his immense upside — one other player stood out. Tight end Brayden Loftin was a blocking machine — hammering opponents in space, sealing edges in the running game and putting his body on the line numerous times. It was an impressive performance.

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