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Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma): further analysis

August 17, 2011 / Rob Staton

This is what speed skating looks like on grass

A lot of people think Landry Jones is an elite quarterback prospect. It may not be a popular opinion, but I’m going to disagree. I think he’s a system quarterback, at least as we stand here today pontificating on whether the Seahawks are going to finally draft a quarterback early next year. I also think he’s been vaulted into a position of hype based around the guy he replaced.

Let me stress that I’m not writing off Landry Jones as either a high pick next April or a productive pro-quarterback. He has a full season with the Sooners to enhance his stock and he’s more than capable of achieving that. If Jones leads Oklahoma to an unbeaten season and therefore potentially a national title shot, then kudos to him and maybe I’ll look back on this piece with some regret. However, you could argue that’s exactly what should’ve happened 12 months ago when having topped the polls for a mere week Blaine Gabbert outplayed Jones in a way that destroyed any ambitions of ending the year #1.

I’ll also qualify that I disagree with Tony Pauline’s fourth round grade issued earlier this week. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Jones isn’t close to the same level as Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley and talk of him going in the top ten is premature. However, he is at the top of a list of second tier quarterbacks (including Kirk Cousins at Michigan and Austin Davis at Southern Miss) who can really pump up their tyres with a great 2011 season.

And let’s be brutal here – if Christian Ponder can endure his 2010 season and still go 12th overall, then Landry Jones is capable of going earlier.

It’s easy to get behind a prospect like Jones. If you pick the right weekend you’ll find a productive quarterback churning out huge yardage and winning a football game. We’ve recently seen one Oklahoma quarterback enter the league seamlessly and Sam Bradford appears set to have a long and successful career in St. Louis.

Let’s get one thing straight right away – Landry Jones is not Sam Bradford. It’s not close. The only thing they really have in common is the color of their college jersey. I’m not saying people have compared the two, but let’s just make it clear right now that Bradford’s success should have no bearing at all when grading Jones.

Both quarterbacks benefited from a system that often requires only one read, includes a lot of multiple WR sets and is basically designed to create an up-tempo passing offense that dominates. Bob Stoops has created a system that works, wins and makes yardage inevitable for it’s quarterbacks.

Bradford threw 86 touchdowns in two years before injury ruined his final year in college. He won a Heisman Trophy following a 2008 season where he passed for nearly 5000 yards. Although the system played it’s part there, Bradford found a way to shine through it. People rarely talked about the offense at Oklahoma when Bradford was under center. He was completing the same swing passes, one read quick throws, mastering the no huddle offense. Yet he did it with such supreme execution and accuracy to become the #1 player among his peers.

Jones has similarly enjoyed mass-production during his two years starting. Like Bradford he passed for nearly 5000 yards last year. However, when I watch him play I usually feel like I’m watching a productive system rather than a quarterback for the ages. Jones doesn’t shine through withrare accuracy and execution. He has decent arm strength but not a Ryan Mallett type cannon. He isn’t mobile in the pocket or a threat running the ball (Bradford was unexpectedly elusive). He isn’t making multiple reads and very often throws blind to the first scripted target.

A fun thing to do sometimes is compare quarterbacks from previous classes to the upcoming group. We’ve heard a lot – too much – about how next year’s class is going to be so much better than previous years. Hyperbole. I would argue that a strong point can be made about the top end talent – Luck and Barkley – being a class above. Beyond that it’s just another year of quarterbacks.

In my mind Jones is not a superior talent to Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton. He lacks the physical potential of Jake Locker, which is exciting if unpredictable. I understand why Ryan Mallett went in round three, but his on-field game is also light years ahead in my mind. Jones isn’t going to come in and light up a team with physical potential or great accuracy. He’s going to have to learn an offense that demands so much more than he’s used to (not unusual for college QB’s admittedly, but this is an exaggerated case that makes an accurate grade a real challenge). He’s not going to extend plays with an elusive athleticism. At this stage he’s a guy I could see really prospering in the right environment (eg the Josh McDaniels offense) but you’d need the system to make the quarterback, because this is not a quarterback who makes the system.

In terms of the Seahawks I don’t think he fits their now obvious desire to make mobility a key component. That’s not to say a guy has to be Michael Vick or Vince Young running the ball, but clearly they need to have a certain degree of athletic ability. Charlie Whitehurt and Josh Portis have the 8th and 11th best short shuttle times ever recorded at the combine. Tavaris Jackson is similarly a capable mover. All three would run above-average forty times for their position.

Jones does not fit that mantra. He’s not Ryan Mallettas a runner, don’t get me wrong. He’s not going to be out-paced by a shirtless Andre Smith in the forty yard dash. In fact Jones will make the occasional play on the ground and he’s capable with boot legs and play action. However, it’s not a striking positive to his game or necessarily what he’s about as a quarterback and I’m not sure it fits in with Seattle’s outlook.

What I like about Jones is the fact he isn’t restricted to making several easy throws the way Jimmy Clausen was in college. It’s one of the bigger concerns I have with Kirk Cousins. Jones threw the ball on a medium level consistently well in certain games last year (particularly vs Florida State). His arm isn’t a cannon, but it’s good enough. It doesn’t look as forced going dowfield as when Cousins attempts a deep pass.

He outclassed Christian Ponder in 2010, but looked like the second best QB when sharing a field with Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden. Can he be the best quarterback on the field in every game this year? If so, Oklahoma will have a big season and we start talking about first round grades.

But because he doesn’t have explosive physical talent or elite accuracy, you’re always going to be wondering whether he can cope with a much more demanding system and whether he’ll stand out. Teams will gamble on a Jake Locker ‘getting it’ because he looks like John Elway physically if not necessarily in his performance at this early stage in his career. Teams won’t always gamble on a guy with all the yards and scores you’d ever want, but with a lingering concern that without his vast array of swing passes and screens he’ll just be found out.

Matt Barkley may be the #1 overall prospect

August 8, 2011 / Rob Staton

What if I suggested Matt Barkley could be the best 2012 eligible player in college football?

Would you assume I’d gone crazy? That may be fair. Would you write this piece off as a token gesture a matter of weeks before the new college football season begins? I haven’t got time for that, honest. Or would you consider for a moment that maybe – just maybe – Matt Barkley might be a marginally better quarterback prospect than Andrew Luck? Is that possible?

I’ve spent a lot of time watching both quarterbacks and have a really difficult time separating them because in my mind they both have elite potential. Universally the media, fans and dare I say scouts have already anointed Luck the 2012 #1 overall pick in waiting. Stanford may have lost a fine head coach, but they maintain a strong offensive line and top-drawer running game. There are at least three receivers on their roster capable of making plays consistently. Basically, barring a freak and unfortunate injury, Andrew Luck is going to have another great year in 2011. Should that happen as expected, he will be the #1 pick. No doubt about it.

He may be the most perfectly acceptable quarterback prospect in the history of the game. From the NFL bloodlines, the professional character and personality, the near flawless mechanics, more than satisfactory production and a cluster of wins – there’s barely anything you’d change about the guy. The team that passes on Luck would have to be drafting Clark Kent or Bruce Wayne with the #1 overall pick to avoid the howls of derision.

I’m not trying to argue here that a team should pass on Luck (they won’t) or that I don’t think he will succeed in the NFL. He has a great shot at making it work as long as he isn’t drafted by an awful franchise like Cincinnati or Oakland. Unfortunately for Luck, both are terrifyingly realistic possibilities.

But certainly I think the bubble of warranted hype surrounding Luck is so impenetrable, that we dare not consider whether anyone else could be… better. It’s like a taboo among college football observers. To suggest someone is better than Luck is comparable to discussing the finer points of Brett Favre’s impact at Minnesota with Tavaris Jackson.

If Luck is fortunate enough to land in a better situation than Cincinnati/Oakland, even then he will still struggle to match the success of players who entered the league with much less hype or investment than he. The prospect that someone from the same draft class could end up having more success is not a pipe dream and neither is the possibility that someone could actually be a better football player given an equal or superior circumstance.

When I watch Matt Barkley I’m often amazed at how little hype he receives in comparison to Luck. From a mechanical and physical point of view, they are very similar. Both appear to be grounded individuals who you’d be happy to have as the ‘face of your franchise’. Both appear to have been systematically trained for the NFL from a young age. Both have a level of athleticism which you don’t often see from quarterbacks with their build.

Luck was lauded as a successful red-shirt freshman starter – and posted a stat list that read 56% completions, 13 touchdowns and 2575 yards. In seven games he threw for fewer than 200 yards as Stanford leaned on a brilliant running game. He had three games where he threw less than 50%, including a 33% game against California where he went 10/30 for 157 yards and an interception. Stanford lost 34-28.

Luck started 2010 in a similar fashion, looking far from elite against UCLA in game two (46% completions) and he wasn’t completely polished against Notre Dame a fortnight later. However, as the year developed so did Stanford’s quarterback and by the end of the season he was regularly throwing 80% games and leading his team to victory in the Orange Bowl. It was that level of progress that convinced me Luck warranted the hype – you never expect a player to avoid a learning curve. Once he’d mastered the offense, the pace of the game and his own limitations, he began to play at a level that warranted huge praise.

Matt Barkley didn’t have a red-shirt year at USC, he started all but one game as a true freshman. In just his second start in college football, he led a game winning drive to beat a tough Ohio State team on the road. He didn’t lose a game as a true freshman until Halloween at Oregon. His two other defeats that year came against Luck’s Stanford and a sickener against Arizona and Nick Foles.

He had some tough games, as did Luck, but managed a superior completion rate of 60% and threw a similar amount of touchdowns (15). Turnovers were much greater (14 compared to Luck’s four) but Barkley was asked to do a lot more as an instant starter than Luck as a red-shirt.

As a true-sophomore, Barkley’s game continued to progress at rapid rate. He improved his completion percentage to 63%, made eleven more touchdowns and continued to act as the focal point of the offense. Although he played behind an offensive line containing elite college players such as Matt Kalil and Tyron Smith, he wasn’t aided by the same well-oiled running game Luck enjoys at Stanford. Barkley’s top target was a true freshman receiver called Robert Woods – insanely talented, but learning on the run.

Barkley’s performance as an immediate two-year starter have been nothing short of incredible. There was no pause for thought at USC and let’s not forget that in between two very succesful years he’d had to cope with controversy in the form of strict NCAA sanctions and a high profile coaching change. Barkley hasn’t just taken that in his stride, he’s sprinting at full pace.

In what was a beautifully under rated meeting last year, the pair met in a classic encounter that Stanford won thanks to a field goal in the dying embers 37-35. Barkley matched Luck throw-for-throw. Whenever Stanford’s QB asked the question, his opposite number shot back the answer without hesitation.

When I go back and look at the tape, I end up asking myself a couple of questions. Firstly, if this was a Luck vs Barkley boxing match decided on points – who would’ve won? Secondly, who is making the more complex and challenging throws? Who is facing the most pressure in the pocket? Who is being forced to make clutch plays?

In both circumstances, the answer was Matt Barkley. Judge for yourself…

Focus on the second video and Barkley’s tape. Look at the play on 2:51 where he pumps to sell the linebacker and throws a dart into coverage, picking out his target ahead of two defensive backs. Check out the pinpoint accuracy to dissect two defenders for a touchdown at 3:57 and at 8:10. The touch and placement at 4:25 is perfect (the dropped catch is not). The play with his legs at 6:52 flashes his athleticism and the throw across his body at 8:51 proves he can improvise, feel pressure and make a quick judgement. It doesn’t get much more clutch than 3rd and long on the road, down a score and making the completion at 10:08.

Yet the most impressive play in the whole video – the one that smashes the rest out of the park and why portrays a perfect example of why I rate the guy so highly, is the final play on the video. It’s an incompletion through the hands of Robert Woods. Needing a score to take a late fourth quarter lead Barkley looks to his left and fakes, moves to his second read and doesn’t like it, goes to a third read and again doesn’t release the ball, goes back to his second read and throws an impossibly perfect pass to the back of a crowded end zone splitting coverage and nailing what should’ve been a potential game winning score.

Should’ve been, but wasn’t. Stanford won the game.

As I said at the start of the piece, I’m not trying to make a negative case for Andrew Luck. I think you’re talking about two elite quarterback prospects, one is assumed to be the greatest college QB since Peyton Manning and the other gets a decent press, but nowhere near a comparable level of hype. Both have started at a young age and impressed, although Barkley has faced (in my view) a much greater baptism of fire.

There’s every chance Barkley won’t declare for the 2012 draft knowing he’ll get the opportunity to play in a bowl game next year and compete for a PAC12 title. He’ll also be well aware that the competition to go first overall in 2013 will be weaker – and some players do see being the #1 pick as a worthwhile enough achievement to impact their decision on whether to declare.

Even so, both are draft eligible next year. A lot can happen in a single season to impact upon grades and opinions but with a few weeks to go until football finally returns, I’m not opposed to the idea that Barkley may be the better player.

Zach Miller signs, Seahawks offense on the brink

August 2, 2011 / Rob Staton

After a long 24-hours of negotiating, the Seahawks today signed former Raiders tight end Zach Miller for a deal believed to be worth $35m with $17m guaranteed. That’s a better contract than Antonio Gates is receiving in San Diego. It’s another ambitious move by the Seahawks front office.

I noted yesterday that I think Miller upgrades the position. That’s not a slur on John Carlson, I just happen to believe Miller is capable of becoming one of the best tight end’s in the league. He’s got a Jason Witten level of potential and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the team’s leading receiver next season. He’s a playmaker. He’ll find holes in coverage and exploit them. He’s capable of breaking off a run after the catch – unusual for the position. He has an 86-yard reception. He’s not an incredible blocker, but then the Seahawks invested a lot of money in the offensive line so that the tight end could be more of a threat as a receiver. He’s only 25 and doesn’t turn 26 until December.

This is just another weapon to add to a rapidly growing list. Fans and the media are starting to look at this offense with a little fear (finally). They may not admit it, but the fear is there. You can feel it among the other NFC West teams. The people mocking the Tavaris Jackson signing are suddenly wondering if his life has been made easy enough to succeed. Sidney Rice… Mike Williams… Zach Miller… Marshawn Lynch… a developing offensive line. Sounds good to me.

Rotoworld’s Evan Silver tweeted this shortly after the Miller signing was announced:

Seahawks creating a nice foundation for Luck or Barkley last year. Zach Miller & Sid Rice both only 25 years old.

I think it’s fair to say that the plan for this team is not to be in position to draft either. How else can you describe all these positive moves in free agency? Let’s be realistic here, even if we are fans of the team – this Seahawks offense is not going to be anywhere close to being bad enough to draft first overall, which is what it will take to draft Andrew Luck. If Matt Barkley performs as well as expected this year at USC, he could be the second overall pick. Again, the Seahawks are not going to be in that region.

A lot of people talk about the ‘brutal’ schedule (I have used that word myself) but when you actually break it down, is it really that bad? Six games against a weak NFC West. Games against Washington, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Dallas. That’s nine games there that don’t scare me, how about you? Tougher games against Philadelphia, Baltimore and Atlanta are all at home – and we saw what home field advantage can do in last season’s playoffs. Seattle travels to Chicago again, where they won in the regular season last year before being pummelled in the playoffs. The other two games are particularly daunting at Pittsburgh and the New York Giants.

There are a lot of tough aspects to that schedule, but it’s far from the mission impossible ‘road to Luck’ some people believe. Right now I wouldn’t be surprised if they won five or six games, which would be mediocre. Would it be a total shocker if they won eight or nine instead? Can they go 4-2 in the NFC West again and beat Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland? Sure – and that’s seven wins, as many as they had last season. Can they win another at home to reach eight wins? Why not?

The reason for this level of measured optimism (notice I’m not projecting a ridiculous 10-12 wins) is purely down to the offense. I’m not saying it’s finished article or completely ready just yet. However, if you had a quarterback with any kind of reputation on this roster – would people be talking about the Seahawks as a dark horse in the NFC? Absolutely.

And really that’s the only thing holding back anyone from making that leap of faith. Tavaris Jackson and/or Charlie Whitehurst won’t be able to complain about a lack of weapons next season. This is a fantastic opportunity for a quarterback to make their mark without a high level of expectation. You know what? Maybe Jackson has enough at his disposal to actually, you know, succeed? Is that really so bold a suggestion?

Although quarterback won’t necessarily be the final piece (the Seahawks still need more on the defensive line and possibly the secondary), if the front office does opt to make a big QB splash in next years draft – whoever they take will be coming into and offense with a lot of talent hitting it’s prime.

A final point for today – what happens now with John Carlson? That’s the big question many people are wondering. Cameron Morrah played well when called into duty last year and is still young and growing. Anthony McCoy had first round level talent at USC and fell only because of character concerns. Both players are cheaper and younger than Carlson and more likely to accept supporting duties alongside Miller.

Carlson’s contract expires next year and with today’s big splash, it seems unlikely he’ll return. Do you try to deal him now knowing he’ll return nothing in the off season? Or do you try to find a role for him alongside Miller?

I’m torn on this one, because I believe Carlson is in that grey area of being a luxury as a backup but not quite someone you make a focal point of the offense (see: Miller signing). I would love to witness McCoy get some action this year and see Morrah’s role expanded if possible. Holding onto Carlson if a deal can be done may be unnecessary.

Even so, what can his value possibly be? Former first round pick Greg Olsen (who is younger than Carlson) made Chicago only a third round pick when he was recently traded to Carolina. I suspect you’d get little more than a 5th rounder for Carlson considering how dry the tight end market has been to this point.

John Clayton is still banging the Osi Umenyiora drum, suggesting the Seahawks could trade Carlson to New York with a draft pick for the pass rusher. It just doesn’t seem like the kind of move this team would make. Umenyiora is approaching 30 and would command a huge contract. He’s not young and hitting his peak and his better days may be in the past. Umenyiora is the kind of player I’d spend money on in free agency or invest a token late rounder, because there could be an easy get out down the line. However, spending something like a third rounder and John Carlson to acquire him would make little sense for a team that is still rebuilding.

Clayton also touted Seattle would lead the race for Ray Edwards, yet they seemingly showed little interest before he signed for the Falcons.

Besides, with the improvements made on offense – the Seahawks may need all of their 2012 picks to make that next ambitious move – trading up the board next April to get that franchise defining quarterback. The final piece perhaps of this offensive jigsaw. The thing that pushes this offense towards elite.

***UPDATE***

John Boyle has a Tweet containing Pete Carroll’s view on the ‘John Carlson conundrum’. Carroll questions anyone who doesn’t think there’s a role for both Zach Miller and Carlson in the team. This is exactly what I would say if a.) I did indeed have a plan for John Carlson within the offense or b.) wanted to try and drive up his price for a potential trade.

Seahawks rightly leaving no room for sentiment

August 1, 2011 / Rob Staton

Lofa Tatupu moved on this week, a tough but correct move

When the Seahawks parted company with Lofa Tatupu this week, there was an understandable level of disappointment among parts of the fanbase. Tatupu had an immediate impact for the team when he was drafted in 2005, helping Seattle to it’s first Super Bowl and making the Pro Bowl in each of his first three years. When he signed a contract extension worth $42m in 2008, he stated he wanted to end his career with the Seahawks. Tim Ruskell declared that Tatupu would be an integral part of the team for years to come – a cornerstone. The contract was signed a year before Tatupu would even hit free agency, a sign of the panic with which Ruskell viewed keeping Tatupu.

Unfortunately, the franchise never truly felt the value of that six-year extension. When he wasn’t missing games through injury, he didn’t appear to be capable of the same impact that made him a star during his early years in the NFL.

Nevertheless, Tatupu had made a connection with Seahawks fans. It was a connection shared also with his teammates, who often credited the player’s leadership on and off the field. Head Coach Pete Carroll inherited Tatupu having already worked with him for many years. He’d seen the guy grow up through high school, enjoy success at USC and go onto the pro’s. Last season Tatupu played every game for his former college coach.

Yet here we are, Tatupu a free agent and in discussion with the Oakland Raiders on a potential move to the Bay Area. A surprise, but also absolutely the right move.

You can’t make room for favorites. You can’t stick by a player that’s earning more than his market value is worth. The best franchises know when to move on, not rewarding mediocre or worse performances simply because the player has an attachment to the team, the coach or the city. Sure, we’d all like to see a 100% healthy Tatupu at his best running this team’s defense. However, it’s not going to happen. Move on and let’s invest the money elsewhere.

We saw a similar move with Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks were prepared to give him another year, but quite rightly at the age of 36 and considering recent health and performance – one year was all they could commit to. Hasselbeck got a better offer in Tennessee and moves on.

I suspect we’ll see another example soon if the Seahawks use the money saved on Tatupu to sign tight end Zach Miller, who is visiting Seattle today. Miller is a playmaker and a much greater threat in the passing game than John Carlson. He’s been held back by substandard quaterbacking during his time in Oakland, but he has potential to be a top-end player at his position.

The fans have a lot of time for Carlson, but he’s just an average tight end who had great value for Tim Ruskell because he passed the strict criteria with which he judged his prospects. He’s neither a spectacular blocker or a great receiving threat, decent at both but exceptional at neither. There’s every chance if Miller is signed Carlson will be moved on. His value will not bring much in return, possibly a 5th round pick or maybe even less.

Yet the team will be making a ruthless upgrade, a vital upgrade.

This kind of move is so refreshing in Seattle, at least that’s how I see it. Tim Ruskell threw so much money at the wrong positions and lingered on his favorites. Tatupu got $42m, Leroy Hill was franchised and then signed a $38m contract. Aaron Curry signed a $60m deal when the Seahawks drafted another linebacker fourth overall. That’s a first, a second and a third round pick at the linebacker position, all drafted by Ruskell at huge expense. Look at the numbers – $140m committed to linebackers. The Seahawks also mortgaged a lot on getting a tight end for a coach who everybody knew was leaving in twelve months. The second and third round pick they spent on John Carlson ironically could’ve landed Ray Rice, DeSean Jackson and Jermichael Finley.

Throughout this period of the Ruskell era no quarterbacks came in other than David Greene in round three. The offensive line received barely a passing glance as Ruskell stuck by another favorite – Sean Locklear. Positions like defensive end and wide receiver had money thrown at it in free agency on ageing players past their best. Pete Carroll and John Schneider are now left to deal with the mess and it’s good to see they’re making a fist of it.

Difficult decisions need to be made and that’s exactly what is happening. A new plan is being drawn up.

Absolutely that plan has to include finding stars at the key positions (QB, OL, WR, DL) and being prepared to mix things around in other areas. The OL and WR parts of that equation are being checked off.

I presume the approch may be the opposite of Ruskell’s with other positions. For example, if they find a decent linebacker who does a good job in his rookie contract, they’ll be prepared to move on rather than spend the big bucks just because he’s had some initial success. They won’t panic and re-sign the guy a year before he hits free agency.

Invest your resources in positions that matter and try to re-load elsewhere. Know when a player’s star is waning and be prepared to trade them before the inevitable drop off in performance. New England have schooled so many teams by trading players for high draft picks that never live up to the price tag. The Seahawks need to take note.

And that of course means being prepared to move on from fading stars and fan favorites. Consistent contenders change a lot of the parts around their core, but the key components remain throughout. It’s impossible to have every position on offense and defense filled with a great player. Milking players on cheap rookie deals and selling high is part of the NFL business and it’s what makes great teams. Carroll and Schneider are already showing that willingness to be ruthless.

An interview with Austin Davis (QB, Southern Miss)

July 30, 2011 / Rob Staton

Austin Davis is hoping to lead the Golden Eagles to a Conference USA title

During my conversation with Southern Miss quarterback Austin Davis, two things became evidently clear. Firstly, that he understands what it will take to get to the next level. Secondly, that he’ll do what it takes to get there.

Davis is the most prolific quarterback in Southern Miss history. He holds several school records, including most passing touchdowns (53).

That record formerly belonged to Brett Favre.

He enters his senior season looking to guide the Golden Eagles to a conference title game while impressing on-looking NFL scouts. He’s on the Davey O’Brien watch-list and will only improve his reputation if he can lead a developing and increasingly talented Southern Miss roster to an unbeaten season, something that’s well within their reach.

“I’ve just had a great experience. I’ve loved going to college here, I’ve loved playing football here and there’d be nothing that would make it more sweet than to go out and win a Championship this year.”

I wanted to speak to Davis in advance of all the serious draft talk. In many ways, this is the best opportunity we get to find out about them. Everything a player says and does during draft time is scrutinised and they’re fully aware of what’s at stake. Quarterbacks in particular get a grilling because teams want to know they can trust these guys not only to be the face of their franchise off the field but also the leader on it.

Answers end up being rehearsed, staged and repeated. Players tred on egg shells and wax lyrical about character, leadership and such like. It’s comparable to a series of job interviews, just filmed and recorded for thousands of people to observe and judge.

So what did I find about Davis?

You can tell he’s ambitious and wants to play at the next level but he’s equally aware it’ll be a big challenge. When he spoke about being a leader, competing and working to achieve his goals – it was done with sincerity.

“The biggest thing is to be a winner and to be a guy that people want on their team. You can’t do anything about your height, you can’t do anything about a lot of things. You can do something about your attitude, your work ethic and your mentality towards the game. That’s one thing I want to excel at and be the best at. I want to win games and I want to lead this team.”

I asked him about the Manning Academy which took place earlier this month. Davis attended along with a lot of the big names in college football including Andrew Luck, Landry Jones and Kirk Cousins. He left an impression, reportedly drawing rave reviews from Archie Manning. In the ‘Air it Out’ competition at the camp (which tests quarterbacks to hit moving targets) Davis progressed through two rounds to make the final, where he competed against Oklahoma’s Jones and eventual winner Collier Winters from Harvard.

“We had a little competition where we got to throw some routes and I felt good. I guess being from Southern Miss we haven’t really done anything on the national scene yet. We haven’t won a conference championship so it’s kind of tougher to get your name out there. Just to be in that exposure gives you a chance to compete and that’s what I love to do. I thought it went well.”

“Any time you get a chance to show people what you can do, you never know who’s going to be watching for the first time so I didn’t take it lightly, I wanted to have a good showing so hopefully I did that.”

The training academy was a worthwhile experience for many reasons – a chance to work with Peyton and Eli of course, but also to spend some time with the other young signal callers who will make up the 2012 draft class.

“I just really enjoyed getting to know all the guys, all the quarterbacks around the country that I know I’ll be coming out with. Guys that I’ll be competing with to play at the next level, but at the same time guys I can keep up with this season. I think that will be the neatest thing, just being able to put the TV on every Saturday whenever we’re not playing and be like ‘hey – I know that guy’. I can text him and tell him good luck or good game and just kind of create almost a fraternity of quarterbacks around the nation.”

And on having the chance to work with two of the NFL’s best?

“That was so special. Just kind of surreal at first but once you’d got to hanging out with them and talking ball you realise they’re guys just like we are. They really helped us out a lot, we had a chance to sit down with them for an hour session and just kind of pick their brain and ask them how they studied film. It was really a beneficial time for us as college quarterbacks.”

There’s a lot to like about Davis from a pro-perspective. In the 2011 draft, six quarterbacks were taken in the first 36 picks – all with a certain degree of mobility. Davis is a similar athlete, capable of making plays to compliment the running game or by extending plays in the pocket. We’ve witnessed the Seahawks focus on mobility with their quarterback additions most recently and more than ever teams are looking for guys who can move around and if needed, get out of harm’s way.

He acknowledges the importance of arm strength and says he’s worked to get stronger in anticipation of the next step. He played at around 208lbs last season, but has added weight to increase his overall strength. It should pay off when the season begins.

“It’s probably my biggest improvement of the summer. I’m right at 220lbs now. I’m probably going to get down after fall camp, I’m probably going to lose a little weight just because we’re working so hard. I’ll try to play at 215lbs because I’m going to have to run the ball in this offense so I’m just going to try and stay a little lower than I think I would play at the next level. But as far as college goes I want to be 210-215lbs.”

Of course it’s not just about physical qualities and the NFL demands a high degree of accuracy. It’s a contradictory storm of needing your pro-quarterback to take chances and make things happen down the field, while also viewing turnovers as the cardinal sin. Luckily, Davis is already speaking with a level of maturity about that situation.

“Just from day one my coaches have just preached to me about protecting the football and not throwing interceptions so I’ve always tried to be a quarterback that’s always smart with the football. I guess some people call it conservative, but I call it smart football. I know if we hold onto the ball then we’re going to win a lot of games and there’s going to be a lot of big plays that guys are going to make around me.”

It’s advice that’s worked well so far. Davis only had six interceptions last year and has 16 for his career overall – a total some quarterbacks will throw in a single season. He was still able to achieve a healthy seven yards per attempt in 2010 while recording 3103 passing yards and completing 63% of his passes. His twenty passing scores were enhanced by a further ten on the ground – and he even managed a spectacular touchdown reception on a trick play in the Beef O’Brady Bowl defeat to Louisville. When you’re scoring 31 touchdowns in a season and only throwing six interceptions, you’re doing something right as a quarterback.

Thankfully his skills on the field are superior to those on NCAA 12. Davis admitted he was currently 0-2 with Southern Miss in career mode, of course taking control of himself at quarterback. “If I throw a pick, I’m like ‘I can’t do this anymore, I need to play with somebody else’.”

They might happen on NCAA 12 but interceptions are not something the Golden Eagles fans have come accustomed to seeing from the real life version of Austin Davis. While he himself has touched on the possibility of people suggesting it’s a conservative approach, that’s not the impression I had when watching Southern Miss. He’s a capable passer who won’t be physically restricted at the next level. His level of focus in limiting turnovers is purely another positive and something he’ll have to take into the NFL to succeed.

If you’re afforded the opportunity to watch Southern Miss in the upcoming new season of college football, take the opportunity to take a look at their quarterback. Next year’s draft class at the postion is already being vaunted by the media, largely due to the hype surrounding Andrew Luck (most of which is fully deserved of course).

However, there are other guys out there and Davis in particular deserves attention. Of course, there’s still a lot of football to be played before the process begins again next year – and Davis understands the importance of taking things one step at a time. The NFL, for now at least, will have to wait.

“I think I would be lying if I said it didn’t come into my mind. Coming into my senior year that is the next step and I’m really looking forward to that opportunity.”

“But at the same time, I think it’s very important that I don’t get too wrapped up in that and forget what I have here. I have another season here and everything I want to accomplish is far more important. If the NFL happens, it will happen later. What I have going on this year and with this team is really the most important thing.”

“I’ve never been to a NFL game and last year I thought about it, but then I decided no, the first NFL game I go to I want to be playing, so that’s my goal.”

QB situation a mess, but blame lies in the past

July 27, 2011 / Rob Staton

What you could have won: Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman

Before I get into this piece I want to set up two things. First of all, I had the opportunity to speak to Austin Davis (QB, Southern Miss) today. Regulars will know I’ve been promoting his talents for a while now as a guy who deserves a lot more attention in terms of the draft. Expect the feature on Davis to appears on the blog in the next couple of days. I can testify that he’s as impressive during interview as he is quarterbacking the Southern Miss offense.

Secondly, I wanted to recommend this piece by Brandon Adams at 17 Power offering a perfect and considered summary of Matt Hasselbeck’s departure and the current quarterback situation. Brandon is an exceptional writer so go and visit his blog.

Now onto the main topic of discussion…

The Seahawks quarterback situation lingered in the air like a bad smell throughout the lockout. At times the debate became quite heated as fans, the media and sometimes even the players chimed in to discuss the future at the position. Would Matt Hasselbeck return? Should Matt Hasselbeck return? Will the Seahawks make a trade for Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer? Is it time to see what Charlie Whitehurst has to offer? Endless debate that often went round in circles.

ESPN’s Trent Dilfer touted Tavaris Jackson around draft time, confirmed at a later stage by John Clayton that he was indeed on Seattle’s radar. We now know that Hasselbeck will be a Tennessee Titan and probable starter for the next two years health and form permitting. We also know that Jackson and Whitehurst will seemingly start training camp fighting to be the starter.

I suspect Jackson has the edge. After all, his former offensive coordinator is now in Seattle. The Seahawks have agreed a deal with Sidney Rice, pending a medical which seems a formality if terms have been agreed and anounced. If you check out Jackson’s own web page, he lists Sidney Rice as one of his closest friends in football. He has the experience – twenty NFL starts compared to Whitehurst’s two.

It appears Pete Carroll is handing a lot of responsibility to his coaches. Tom Cable had a lot of sway during the draft where Seattle spent their first two picks on offensive lineman. The Seahawks confirmed today that they’d signed Cable’s former protege Robert Gallery to play left guard. Bevell has clearly had some influence in the team’s decision to not only sign Jackson, but also target Rice.

So this is the situation at quarterback – Jackson or Whitehurst. Frankly, it’s a mess that should’ve been avoided.

Let me qualify that statement by making it clear that I see this ‘mess’ as one inherited by Pete Carroll and John Schneider. They were correct not to commit significant years and salary to a 36-year-old starting quarterback who in fairness does not fit the athletic and physical qualities they want to build their offense around. If the idea is that this team is rebuilding and won’t peak for a year or two (or three) then why not take a look at some other guys? It’s not losing for draft stock, it’s called moving on.

However, it should’ve been much easier to move on. They should’ve been able to avoid all this drama. Why? Because the previous regime should’ve drafted a quarterback. The current situation is systematic of the negligence of the past.

In 2009, the Seahawks should’ve drafted a quarterback in round one. Tim Ruskell and the front office viewed a 4-12 record and the fourth overall pick as almost a luxury. The poor season in 2008 was purely down to injuries – whether that was to Matt Hasselbeck, the offensive line or pretty much every single wide receiver on the roster. “We’re better than that” and “We’ll be healthy and return to form” were opinions taken. This was a team that had been perennial NFC West champions after all. This was a steal! The Seahawks, Super Bowl runners up just a couple of seasons removed, pinching a top-five talent.

What a rare and exciting opportunity to spend a top-five draft pick this was. Tim Ruskell and his scouts decided it was a chance to grab the top guy on their board who fit all of their criteria. Of course, that also meant the top guy that made it through the many layers that Ruskell insisted upon with his picks (four year starter, big school, good character etc).

The decision was made to draft Aaron Curry, a move much loved by the media and a large portion of the fan base. It’s not just with hindsight that we look back and almost collectively see that was a massive mistake. A few argued such at the time (ahem).

Essentially, it was a short term move. Curry was awarded the usual tags of ‘pro-ready’ and ‘safe pick’ with the assumption being his position (linebacker) was easy to learn. There were no character concerns and he performed brilliantly in work outs and during the combine, so Seattle drafted a $60m linebacker and hoped he would hit the ground running. Get everyone else healthy, fill holes with wasteful free agent cash (TJ Houshmandzadeh) and go for wins. They had to manufacture the positional need by trading Julian Peterson (who admittedly was reaching the end of his prime) but Curry was a can’t miss prospect! How could it go wrong?

Well for starters, Curry had no history in college of pass rushing ability. He wasn’t even asked to rush the passer, often standing deep behind the line of scrimmage and acting as a heat seaking missile to the ball. Curry recorded nine total sacks in four years at Wake Forest. Pass rush isn’t the be-all and end-all, but if you’re spending $60m on one defensive player, you generally want him pressuring the quarterback or shutting down one side of the secondary. Not many teams spend big at linebacker in a 4-3 scheme.

Curry had all the athletic qualities, but not the instinct. He looks like a player who has worked to become a great physical specimen but ultimately plays like the third round grade he was given by the draft committee prior to his senior year.

What happened in 2009 after drafting him? The Seahawks weren’t quite as good as some thought. This was an ageing team with key players either already gone (Shaun Alexander, Steve Hutchinson) or getting close (Walter Jones, Patrick Kerney).

Matt Hasselbeck was also getting close to the end of the road.

When the 2009 season began, Hasselbeck was approaching his 34th birthday after an injury plagued previous season. He had two years left to run on his contract. That absolutely was the perfect opportunity to draft a guy, let him sit for two years and be the natural successor when Hasselbeck’s contracted ended after the 2010 season. A plan for tomorrow, some forward thinking at the most important position in football. It was the ideal moment to draft a quarterback.

If Ruskell and co. believed the team were better than their 2008 record suggested, then replace Julian Peterson with a younger and cheaper option (they found David Hawthorne as an UDFA) and let the quality of the team you believe in afford you the opportunity to bank a quarterback for the future.

Of course it’s easy to look now at Mark Sanchez (drafted 5th overall) and say that should’ve been the pick. He’s performed at least to a satisfactory level to get the Jets to successive playoff berths despite never having a chance to sit and learn. Josh Freeman is another. I never seriously considered Freeman to be an option for the Seahawks at #4 given his lack of polish as a passer – even despite the fact he worked out in Seattle prior to the draft. I graded him in the top ten of a few mocks but actually had him going to the Jets in the teens when all was said and done.

Two quarterbacks who have both had significant impacts for their team. Two quarterbacks who have started quickly. Two quarterbacks who are the future of their teams.

And yes, hindsight is great. But we can safely say the previous regime blew this one. Rather than awaiting the Sanchez or Freeman era in Seattle – with either having had two years research on living like a pro – it’s the Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst show. A major missed opportunity to take a chance on a quarterback for the long haul.

Carroll and Schneider can do nothing but make the most out of a bad situation. They may get an opportunity to get this right in the future. However, it’s actually very difficult (even with Jackson and Whitehurst) to ‘earn’ a top five pick. Seattle were just as poor in 2009 as 2008 and only managed the 6th overall pick after a 5-11 record. Playing in the NFC West makes it even harder to be so bad you finish with the 0-4 wins you might need to pick from the cream of the QB crop.

Would that be enough to get Andrew Luck in 2012? No. It may not be enough to get Matt Barkley either should he declare.

And this dire situation was all created by the absolute neglect of any forward thinking at such a key position. A cog to build around and continue Seattle’s NFC West dynasty lost. An expensive linebacker acquired instead. No obvious answer to who can be the next great Seahawks quarterback after Matt Hasselbeck.

A mess.

Let’s hope it can be solved soon. With the signing of Sidney Rice and major investment in the offensive line/running game, the Seahawks have created a good environment for a quarterback to thrive. Maybe that can be Jackson or Whitehurst? Or maybe it’ll be a different player not currently on the roster to be acquired or drafted later.

Vonta Leach admits Seahawks are on his radar

July 19, 2011 / Rob Staton

Yesterday we reported that the Seahawks have some interest in signing free agent full back Vonta Leach. It appears that feeling is mutual.

In conversation with Fox Sports’ Adam Schein, Leach admitted that the Giants, the Seahawks and the Chargers are on his radar if he is not re-signed by the Houston Texans. He also reiterated his desire to be the best paid full back in the NFL, after he helped Arian Foster lead the league in rushing and set a new UDFA record for total yards.

New York’s interest in Leach wouldn’t be unexpected. As a restricted free agent in 2007 he signed an offer sheet worth $8m over four years with the Giants. Houston matched the offer and he stayed in Texas. San Diego are hoping to improve a rushing attack that now includes the 12th overall pick from 2010, former Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews.

Of course the Seahawks are also hoping to drastically improve the league’s 31st best rushing offense. The offensive line has already received a lot of attention, they’ve invested in big names coaches and traded for both Marshawn Lynch and Leon Washington. Leach would offer further improvement as the best blocking full back in the NFL. Although he is demanding to be the best paid player at that position, he could be available for a modest $3m per season on a four year deal with around $7-8m in guarantees. That’s not an altogether huge sum if it does in fact continue to improve the running game which Pete Carroll is determined to make the focal point of his offense.

And lest we forget, John Schneider was part of the front office in Green Bay that originally gave Leach his first shot in the league as an UDFA in 2004.

Although speaking to other teams and agents before the lockout is complete isn’t allowed, it’s unrealistic to expect that such talks haven’t taken place. When free agency opens, we all expect the first signing to be announced almost immediately – as was the case when Detroit signed Nate Burleson last year.

It’s very realistic that Leach knows the teams that are expressing the most interest and that’s why he name checks Seattle, New York and San Diego. If so, this would confirm what we’ve been reporting with regard to the Seahawks’ interest in the player.

**Update**

ESPN and Gregg Rosenthal at PFT have both picked up on Leach’s comments today.

Seahawks have interest in Vonta Leach

July 18, 2011 / Rob Staton

Leach (left) and Arian Foster dominated in 2010

Seahawks Draft Blog understands that Houston full back Vonta Leach will be on Seattle’s radar when the lockout ends.

The 29-year-old made the Pro-Bowl last season blocking for the NFL’s leading rusher Arian Foster and was also selected to the AP’s NFL All-Pro team. With Leach’s assistance, Foster recorded 1616 rushing yards in 2010 and set a new record for total yards from scrimmage by an undrafted free agent.

With the Seahawks often expressing a desire to dramatically improve their running game, interest in Leach is no real surprise. Under Pete Carroll the Seahawks spent two first round picks on offensive tackles, invested in big name offensive line coaches such as Alex Gibbs and Tom Cable and brought Marshawn Lynch to Seattle from Buffalo. In 2010 the team ranked 31st in the NFL for rushing despite initially stating the running game would become the focal point of the offense.

There is history between Leach and the Seahawks hierarchy – he signed with Green Bay as an undrafted free agent in 2004 before departing two years later. This coincides with GM John Schneider’s time within the Packers organisation.

As I was compiling this piece, John McClain from the Houston Chronicle tweeted:

“One of the first things the Texans should do when the lockout ends is to make an offer to FB Vonta Leach that will keep him in Houston.”

Interest in Leach is expected to be steady despite the low-key nature of the full back position.When the lockout ends it appears teams will be granted a three-day period to sign their own free agents before the open market kicks into action. Therefore, the Seahawks may not even get the opportunity to present an offer to Leach’s representatives if he re-signs with Houston. If he does hit the open market, competition will exist with other teams also likely to explore the opportunity to poach arguably the best blocking full back in the NFL.

If the Seahawks follow through their interest with an offer, it could be costly. Leach has voiced his desire to become the highest paid full back in the league, a distinction currently held by former-Seahawk Leonard Weaver when he signed a $11.2m deal in Philadelphia with $6.5m in guarantees. It remains to be seen whether the Seahawks would be willing to commit to a three-year contract for a player who turns 30 in November that contains upwards of $7m in guarantees.

It’s also understood that the Seahawks have interest in UDFA offensive lineman Michael Huey. He played his football with the Texas Longhorns at guard and is listed at 6-4 and 304lbs. His 2010 season ended prematurely with an MCL tear in his right knee against Baylor last October. He’s since recovered and benched 36 reps at his pro-day to go along with a 5.15 forty-yard dash and a 4.60 short shuttle.

Huey was considered the most consistent feature on a disappointing Texas line last season and was offered a late round grade for the draft.

Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State): further analysis

July 11, 2011 / Rob Staton

A couple of weeks ago I had a look at Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins and drew some comparisons to Florida State’s Christian Ponder. Statistically there’s a lot of similarities as discussed and certain elements of their game are comparable. However, there are aspects to Ponder’s game that I found a real concern that had so far not shown up with Cousins.

Thanks to TMB Draft for providing tape from 2010 games against Illinois, Iowa and Purdue. This goes alongside tape already made available from Wisconsin and Michigan.

Although it’s quite vague I’d describe Cousins as being neat and tidy, not restricted in any obvious way but certainly not physically dominant without brilliant accuracy to make up for it. The mobility helps him move around in the pocket and extend plays, but athletically he’s a level below Matt Barkley (who himself is a level behind Andrew Luck and Blaine Gabbert). You’re not going to see Cousins break off a significant gain with his legs, but he’s capable of running boot legs and play action and moving freely. Indeed, his ability to sell play action is a big plus.

Cousins doesn’t have a huge arm, but it’s better than Christian Ponder’sand not a major weakness. The release point is a bit slingy but I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest this is a big problem and certainly he gets the ball out quickly enough. Jimmy Clausen had a similar release and had a lot of passes batted and tipped at the LOS, yet we don’t see that from Cousins. However, that’s not the only similarity between the two quarterbacks. Clausen regularly leans back on to his heels and throws off the back foot, losing any kind of velocity and putting too much air on the deep ball. Cousins does it too (although not quite as often) which is a shame because when he steps into passes he generates a lot more velocity.

It appears that Cousins resorts to throwing off the back foot more so under pressure, which in turn also impacts his accuracy. When he feels the rush he sits back and spears the ball. Given his agility in the pocket you’d like to see a little less panic, stepping up into the pocket and driving the pass. I think he could be more composed in the pocket which will ultimately lead to better technique.

I’d be interested to see how much better his deep ball could become if he didn’t lean back and really drove into the pass. Lofted deep ballsaren’t the only problem though, he often appears to put little thought or placement into the long range pass and certainly he’s more of a short/medium range specialist than a great deep ball quarterback. Then again, Luck or Barkley are not great deep ball passers either and while Blaine Gabbert certainly has the best arm, statistically he grades poorly for long passes.

Clausen isn’t generally an accurate comparison to Cousins, because he’s a lot less mobile and played in a simple offense based on high percentage passes that limited turnovers. The Michigan State scheme asks more of Cousins and he’s at least shown a capability within that system. However, he does have a tendency to telegraph too many passes. Interceptions in the tape above are often because he’s looked to the hot read from the snap, lingered and thrown late. He needs to do a better job looking off his targets, which is a problem a lot of college quarterbacks take into the NFL and struggle to shake off (see: Charlie Whitehurst).

The one other area of real concern is his penchant to take risks under pressure, often throwing badly judged passes when chased out of the pocket. If he’s taking a sack, he’ll still lob it up for grabs and risk a turnover rather than a loss of yards. Cousins had ten interceptions in 2010 but it really should’ve been more (he had twenty touchdown passes).

2011 provides a brilliant opportunity for Michigan State and their quarterback, playing in a conference that has taken some hits while MSU maintained a lot of their stars. The target should be an unbeaten season. There are tough games on the schedule (road trips to Ohio State, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Iowa) but they do face OSU in the final game where several of the Buckeye’s top players will be suspended. Can Cousins become a technically better passer? Can he get up to around 210-215lbs (he was listed at just over 200lbs for 2010) and step into those deep passes?

If he answers some of the question marks and becomes a more physically capable player, then the sky’s the limit. Lockout or not, if a team is willing to spend the #12 pick on Christian Ponder and a high second rounder on Andy Dalton, then there’s no reason to suggest Cousins couldn’t go in the first round. I never felt Ponder took a similar chance last year and with injuries also on the report card, it was a surprise that a team felt that compelled to draft him early.

Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley are clearly the top two ranked quarterbacks with a secondary group that could change dramatically during the new college season. Cousins is my top ranked senior quarterback and there’s no reason he couldn’t challenge Landry Jones to be the third ranked passer should both Luck and Barkley declare (Luck is a shoe-in to enter the draft, Barkley much less so). That’s the positive angle. As things stand today without that further progression and development, he looks like a round 2-3 level quarterback who would still have a shot at starting down the line. I dropped Ponder down to a round 4-5 grade after viewing a number of FSU games in 2010 and that also remains a possibility for Cousins if he regresses or gets injured.

The one player he reminds me of a lot is Kevin Kolb. Similar slingy release, similar size and mobility. Both have a tendency to make bad or risky decisions and take chances that lead to turn overs. At the same time, both are not severely limited and given a nice collection of playmakers, can succeed as a starter. Kolb was drafted with the 36th pick in 2007 and it wouldn’t surprise me come next April if we see Cousins go in a similar area.

Some thoughts on Terrelle Pryor

July 2, 2011 / Rob Staton

Terrelle Pryor can run, but can he become a starting NFL quarterback?

I’ve had the opportunity to run through a couple of OSU games this weekend to have a look at quarterback Terrelle Pryor. He’s entering the supplemental draft whenever that takes place (we’re relying on a new CBA again) and it’s not entirely obvious what his future holds. His departure from Ohio State was shambolic and will concern teams just as much as any faults within his on-field game (and we’ll come to the actual football soon).

First the background on his exit from Ohio State.

Pryor was due to miss the first five games of the 2011 college season along with four teammates due to a NCAA sanction for selling memorabilia. As it turns out, that was just the start of the mayhem. The Columbus Dispatch reported that the NCAA and Ohio State would conduct an investigation over 50 cars bought by players, family members and friends. Sports Illustrated added that Pryor drove up to eight cars during his time at OSU. What’s more, it’s understood he was driving on a suspended license. ESPN have since published a subsequent report alleging that Pryor made thousands of dollars autographing memorabilia for a local booster, a charge which has been denied by Pryor’s attorney.

The end product of all this negative press is the decision to quit college football and head to the supplemental draft. To some extent it’s understandable – would Pryor’s suspension be extended pending further NCAA investigation? Could he miss a whole year? With coach Jim Tressell leaving and with so much negativity existing around the team, would it surmount to potentially a wasted season? All legitimate reasons to justify Pryor’s decision from a pure business point of view, yet you have to ask at the same time whether it’s a major cop out? With OSU being investigated and facing a huge task on the field, rather than face the music or stand by his teammates Pryor has simply bailed for higher ground.

It’d be easy to read too much into that, but teams do want to see responsibility and they want to see leadership from big name college quarterbacks. Perhaps you ignore certain things when you’re considering a low level investment in a talented running back or corner, but Pryor plays the most important position on the team. They need to know they can trust this guy to put the offense on his shoulders and drag it across the desert. They need to know that the day he becomes part of their franchise, football will win the day and not controversy.

Pryor’s agent Drew Rosenhaus has predicted at least one team is going to make a first round investment via the supplemental draft. Even if Pryor was such a talented quarterback to warrant that consideration, the off-the-field issues would render it a near impossibility. Which team is going to spend their 2012 first round pick on Terrelle Pryor before a ball has been kicked in anger to begin the new season? The answer is obvious. The question really becomes – at what point does Pryor go from being too much of a risk, to becoming a calculated gamble or even a worthy project?

When you throw on the tape it’s very easy to determine what is Pryor’s defining strength – evasiveness. When it’s third and ten, you’re pass rush has penetrated into the backfield and is just about to make the sack – he finds a way to avoid the pressure and make a gain instead of taking the loss. Sometimes, he even gets a new set of downs. He glides as a runner and looks every part an athlete – 6-6 and 235lbs of fluid, stylish running ability. Unfortunately, that is the one big positive.

As a passer there’s absolutely nothing to write home about. He lacks any kind of touch or feel with the football, often throwing a poor spiral or struggling to put the ball into the best possible place for his receivers. On several occasions he’ll get bailed out by his wide-outs fighting to make a play or just being better than the individual they’re competing with. Despite having great athletic qualities, there’s no great deep ball or velocity and certainly his accuracy downfield is patchy at best. The problem is, he doesn’t compensate with a tidy intermediate game. He’s a thrower, not a passer. When things get tough, sometimes he’ll just toss it up for grabs.

It’s hard to imagine any scheme where Pryor could fit in without major technique building. He’s being coached during this pre-CBA holding period by Ken Anderson who also worked with Cam Newton. That’s a positive, but I can’t stress enough the vast amount of space between Newton and Pryor in terms of their passing ability. Despite a lot of suggestions to the contrary, Newton is a much more established and polished passer than people give him credit for. He can make several pro-style throws with ease, he spins the ball effectively with good touch and he’s got a much better deep ball. Newton is what Pryor was expected to be when he started at OSU. Right now, they are incomparable players except for size and athletic ability. Newton is ready to play quarterback in the NFL, while Pryor isn’t close.

I could see a handful of different scenarios in the supplemental draft – one being that no NFL team makes a bid for Pryor and he’s left contemplating his next move. That is a very real prospect in my opinion. On the other hand, the athletic qualities are good enough for at least one team to bring him in for a late round flier and test him out. In that round 5-7 range you’re never expecting anything but potential and a chance of sticking around. At the very least, Pryor’s athletic brilliance should secure some interest. Anything higher than that for me is severe wishful thinking.

Would the Seahawks show interest? They’ve been willing to take on a project in the first year of the Pete Carroll regime and Pryor could do worse than get a shot somewhere where competition is the very nature of the programme. Carroll wants his quarterback to be able to move and extend plays, while also keeping a defense honest and being able to limit turnovers. Despite his sometimes careless nature, Pryor had 11 interceptions in both the 2009 and 2010 seasons but scored 45 passing touchdowns. The numbers are slightly deceptive though – Pryor had poor-to-average games against Miami (FL), Wisconsin and Iowa averaging 49% completions and recording a 2-3 touchdown-interception ratio. No such troubles of course against Marshall, Eastern Michigan or Indiana (75% completions on average, 10-0 TD-INT ratio).

It’s also worth mentioning that the eleven picks were spread out – Pryor had only three regular season games in 2010 without an interception.

Whether that alone will be enough to put off the Seahawks entirely remains to be seen, although you imagine that like the rest of the league the OSU-exit and the lack of polished passing ability will do most damage. Even so, it may be Carroll who sees the potential which in fairness exists if only from a physical stand point. Putting him on the bench for a year behind a veteran or two and taking a slow approach may pay dividends down the line. Maybe. If someone is going to take a shot on Pryor, it’s as likely to be the Seahawks as anyone else. Pryor has to hope someone will be willing to take on that challenge whenever the supplemental draft takes place – otherwise he better prepare for the Canadian Football League.

Terrelle Pryor vs Arkansas – Sugar Bowl (Tape provided by JMPasq):