Category: Front Page News (Page 90 of 367)

Before we get into today’s piece, check out the latest podcast below as Robbie and I preview the Dallas game, discuss the advanced stats and talk about my trade pitch for Ryan Kerrigan.

Stats don’t tell the whole story but they can give you a better idea of what’s going on.

So here we go. We’ll start with the defense and end with the offense. The defensive numbers are, unsurprisingly, very concerning. However, I do offer a silver lining.

— The Seahawks are blitzing 36% of the time, sixth most in the league after two games. That’s more than Gregg Williams and Todd Bowles in New York and Tampa Bay respectively. This isn’t a minor tweak. This is a sea change. They are being more aggressive than they’ve ever been under Pete Carroll to make up for the struggling pass rush.

— In comparison, they blitzed 26.9% of the time last season and 18.4% in 2018. Basically they’re blitzing twice as much as they previously did in this scheme.

— This increase has resulted in just three sacks, two of which are credited to Jamal Adams (and one was in pursuit of Cam Newton on a scramble and should probably be considered a TFL).

— Seattle’s pressure percentage is 22.3% which is middle of the pack and they are credited with 23 pressures which is among the NFL’s top-10. However — this is manufactured pressure as we can see from the blitz percentage. For example, Jamal Adams leads the team in pressures.

— It sounds positive — top-10 for pressures — but if you’re getting those numbers by rushing six or seven against five blockers, you should expect this. Pressure percentage is a useful statistic for individual defensive linemen as it indicates how often they win. For teams, you probably have to contextualise it with the frequency of blitzing and who is creating the pressure.

— Adams has blitzed 21 times so far, the third most by any player. The only two players who have blitzed more are Pittsburgh duo T.J. Watt (25) and Bud Dupree (24) and they are rush linebackers. Maybe this is linked — Adams is giving up 20.8 yards per reception allowed, that’s the eighth highest among players after two games. His yards per target is at 15.6. He’s also missed three tackles and his yards conceded is 187 — second most in the league behind only Quinton Dunbar (212).

— If the Seahawks continue to blitz at this pace we’ll probably see decent numbers in terms of pressure percentage for the rest of the season and I suspect some people in the media will present this as evidence that the pass rush isn’t that bad after all. However, this is a red herring. As I said, when you blitz a lot you will manufacture pressure. It’s a pure numbers game. The key is getting home. If you don’t get home, you expose your secondary. You can be credited with a ‘pressure’ and still get torched on a blitz. You can send Jamal Adams off the edge and have Bobby Wagner attack up the middle. They could get close to the QB and gain a pressure. If the quarterback gets that throw off to, say, Julian Edelman on a hot route, the pressure doesn’t mean anything. If you sack the quarterback in that scenario, it means everything. This is why, in the context of the Seahawks, 23 pressures is not the important statistic to focus on. It’s the three sacks (two from a safety), the 3% sack percentage (among the leagues lowest) and the 36% blitz percentage (among the leagues highest) working to create a perfect storm of a struggling four-man rush, the compensatory risk involved with increased blitzing and the low number of sacks per play.

– If you need further evidence of this being an issue, just look at the passing yards and explosive plays conceded by the Seahawks. They’ve given up 831 cumulative passing yards. Their 8.2 net yards conceded per pass attempt is the third highest in the league behind only the Falcons and Dolphins. They’ve given up 45 passing first downs, the most in the NFL and nine more than second placed Cleveland (36). You can make a case that Atlanta and New England were both chasing deficits in the second half and that could’ve inflated the numbers. It’s also worth noting that both teams moved the ball with ease in those situations. The Patriots nearly won the game in week two, so you can’t put this down to garbage time. Contrary to popular opinion, the Falcons actually had the ball at midfield with seven minutes to go driving to make it a one-score game in week one.

– When Seattle had the best defense in the NFL in 2013, they gave up a league low 2752 yards for the season. That was 350 fewer than the second best team. After two games this season, they’ve already given up 970 yards — a third of their entire 2013 total. Nobody expects the 2020 defense to perform anything like the LOB but it helps illustrate how poorly Seattle’s pass defense is performing currently.

– The most striking statistic involves explosive plays. The Seahawks have allowed a league-high 47 plays of +10 yards. Considering they’ve only defended 147 plays in total, that means 31.9% of Seattle’s defensive snaps so far have resulted in them giving up an explosive play. That is an incredible stat. The Seahawks are 2-0 but how sustainable is it when a third of your defensive snaps result in an explosive play for the opposition?

– For what it’s worth, the Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL with 41 offensive plays of +10 yards. They visit Seattle on Sunday.

What’s the answer?

I want to offer a silver lining and some hope for the future moving forward. I genuinely believe they just need one player who can win 1v1 to be able to get through this.

Just look at the way, in 2018, they were able to blitz half as much as they currently are because they had a player in Frank Clark who recorded 13 sacks (36% blitzing in 2020 vs 18.4% in 2018).

The Seahawks were league average for yards conceded in the passing game (#16) in 2018. Their sack percentage was 7.3% — more than twice as much as it is now and just outside the NFL’s top-10 (#11). They had the fourth highest pressure percentage (28.5%) despite having the fifth lowest blitz percentage.

Nobody would’ve called Seattle’s 2018 D-line a top unit. Yet because they had one player capable of producing sacks off the edge and threatening opponents in 1v1 situations, they were able to create pressure without blitzing.

The Seahawks badly miss a player like Clark.

However, what it tells us is they really only need one player to rectify this problem. If they can acquire someone who can deliver pressure off the edge — just as Clark did — they can reduce how often they blitz, they can increase their sack percentage and the chances are they will drastically lower how many yards they’re giving up and how many explosive plays they are conceding.

One new player won’t create a top performing defense. They might have a league average unit though — capable of not undermining the efforts of Russell Wilson and the offense.

Benson Mayowa is not good enough to be the premier rusher. Losing Bruce Irvin, who they were counting on to contribute 6-8 sacks, is another big loss.

It really is as simple as this. The Seahawks can still salvage their defensive output by adding a dynamic edge rusher. Fail to do so and the numbers above will have a consequence eventually. It’s just not sustainable to be this bad in the passing game, while being this aggressive. As good as Wilson has played in the first two weeks, it’s unrealistic to expect him to deliver 16 perfect games to compensate for this glaring weakness.

The Seahawks only really have one asset left as a bargaining chip — their 2021 second rounder. Somehow, they’ve got to find someone who can come in and provide a spark. They should be prepared to give up that high pick.

If there’s a pass rush equivalent of Quandre Diggs or Quinton Dunbar out there for a day three selection — great. It’s hard to imagine who that could be, though.

For me it’s worth being aggressive. The Seahawks need a solution to this. It’s the one thing holding them back from being a legitimate, serious Super Bowl contender.

I noted yesterday that Ryan Kerrigan might be the best bet. He has two sacks already this season, so he’s started well. He wanted to return to Washington this season to break the franchise sacks record and he’s done that now. Ron Rivera is rebuilding that team and they have two first round picks (Chase Young & Montez Sweat) at defensive end and two others at defensive tackle (Jonathan Allen & Daron Payne).

Kerrigan is a free agent at the end of the season and could be departing anyway in a matter of months.

He could be the 2020 answer to Duane Brown. When they saw a massive glaring weakness in 2017 (Rees Odhiambo starting at left tackle) they aggressively solved that problem with a big trade. Kerrigan, like Brown, isn’t a long term fix. However — if he comes in and gets you 10 sacks between now and the end of the season, that could be a game changer for the Seahawks.

That, for me, is worth a second round pick. Especially because you can negotiate an extension with him at any point to make sure you secure him for an extra year or two. Like Brown, Kerrigan is a solid pro with a good attitude.

Ultimately what’s more important? Giving yourself the best chance to win this year in what could easily be the best season of Russell Wilson’s career? Or having a late second round pick next April and hoping the current pass rush isn’t going to waste a season of prime Wilson?

Reviewing the offensive advanced stats

— The drop percentage is only 1.6%, the fifth best overall. Two teams (Baltimore, Las Vegas) are yet to drop a pass. At the other end of the scale, Detroit has an 11% drop percentage after two games.

— Russell Wilson ranks joint first for the least number of ‘bad’ or ‘poor’ throws with five (level with Ryan Tannehill). His bad throw percentage is 8.2%, marginally higher than Tannehill’s (8.1%).

— Wilson’s percentage of ‘on-target’ throws is #1 in the NFL at 88.5%. Garden Minshew is second (85.9%) and Tannehill is third (85.5%).

— Seattle ranks ninth in the league for yards after the catch (247) with an average of 4.8 yards after completion.

— The offensive line has given up 24 pressures, the third most. They’re also conceding the highest pressure percentage in the NFL (32.9%). Wilson has been hit 11 times, second most in the league. It’s hard to say how much of this was down to a pretty horrible first half in Atlanta but the numbers could do with improving in the coming weeks.

— The Seahawks have only run one RPO so far which is surprising. Arizona, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Buffalo lead the league with 13. Dallas are second with 12.

— Seattle has 170 rushing yards before contact, seventh most. Yet they only have 68 yards after contact which is surprising. That’s the third lowest number and they only average 1.4 yards after contact so far. Seahawks running backs are only credited with one broken tackle in the first two games.

— Wilson’s passer rating when targeting D.K. Metcalf is 141.4 — 15th highest in the league. It’s a perfect 158.3 when targeting David Moore (admittedly it’s early). It’s 128.9 when targeting Tyler Lockett and 143.7 when looking for Chris Carson.

— Metcalf ranks second in the league for yards before catch per reception (17.3). The player leading the NFL is Dallas’ Michael Gallup (17.6).

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In looking through the PFF grades for week two, the difference compared to the Atlanta game is quite stark.

Bobby Wagner (87.3) and Jamal Adams (85.8) both graded superbly against the Falcons. Against New England? It was the total opposite.

Adams in particular faired poorly, scoring only a 41.2. That was the second worst grade on the entire defense ahead of only Lano Hill (who was forced into a new role due to injuries and the ejection of Quandre Diggs).

As NFL Next Gen Stats revealed on Sunday, the Patriots were 6/6 for 157 yards when Adams was the nearest defender to the targeted receiver.

A lot of the focus after the game was essentially what would this defense be without Adams — mainly because of his blitzing ability. However it’s possible we saw on Sunday what can happen if you ask too much of him. It’s plausible that either he felt like he had to do too much on Sunday, that the Seahawks asked too much of him or his play suffered because he was forced into two extremes — being the last line of defense and also Seattle’s only creator of pressure.

Either way that’s an ugly grade for Adams and warrants some reflection. The Seahawks need to put him in a position to impact games and play to his brilliant strengths — not create a liability by putting too much on his shoulders.

Wagner also graded poorly with a 59.9. This is something that should alarm fans. Personally, I don’t think he’s any less of a player. In 2018 he had basically a perfect season for a middle linebacker. I suspect the complete lack of talent on the D-line is impacting him.

Is he being properly protected so that he can play with freedom and speed? Is he having to do too much to compensate for issues up front?

Seattle has two big stars on its defense and they need both players to be at the top of their game most weeks. One of the concerns raised prior to the season was the state of the D-line potentially having a negative impact on Adams and Wagner. They need to be kept clean to play fast and loose.

Are they currently able to play within the framework of the scheme? Was week two an example of the pre-season concern?

The defensive line, unsurprisingly, graded badly again with one big exception. Pete Carroll said on Monday that Bryan Mone had his best game for the Seahawks. According to PFF, he was Seattle’s third best performer on defense behind only Quinton Dunbar and Tre Flowers. Mone scored a highly respectable 74.8.

Anthony Rush, recently moved onto the active roster, was given a 66.7 grade which is also reasonable. Carroll seemed to suggest during his interviews yesterday that he is content with their defensive tackle rotation following this performance.

It’s encouraging but it’s also worth noting the scenario involved. Mone only played 26 snaps (36%) and Rush 15 (21%). The Patriots could do what they want in the passing game and basically abandoned a traditional ground attack.

In the first two weeks of the season, neither Atlanta or New England operated with a balanced offense. The Falcons abandoned the run to chase the game. The Patriots only ran their running backs 14 times because Cam Newton was untroubled in the pocket and was moving the ball with ease. We won’t know how the grades might’ve been affected had both opponents given their backs a heavier workload. Presumably Dallas and Zeke Elliott will deliver a serious test in week three.

Here are the grades for Seattle’s starting D-line against the Patriots:

Poona Ford — 61.9
Jarran Reed — 61.7
Benson Mayowa — 54.3
L.J. Collier — 51.1

The results, especially for the two defensive ends, speak volumes. I’ll simply repeat the call of yesterday’s article. They need to act now. Alton Robinson is set to replace Bruce Irvin in the pass rush rotation but it’s too much for a fifth round rookie to come in and save the day. Even if they bring in Clay Matthews or Cam Wake purely for third down passing situations, they need to do something.

I fear, based on Carroll’s comments yesterday, that nothing is forthcoming. Matthews reportedly had a clause in his contract with the Rams to pay him a certain amount this year if cut and not employed by another team. Any prospective suitor will need to make it worth his while to play. Wake is nearly 39-years-old and likewise might need coaxing back onto the field with a generous salary.

It seems like the Seahawks are stuck with what they’ve got, which is a concern given the loss of Irvin for the rest of the season and the increasing likelihood that Darrell Taylor will not play in 2020. Rasheem Green is also currently injured.

It’s extremely positive to see Quinton Dunbar graded with a 79.4. Last week he was Seattle’s lowest graded defender with a 40.6. He’s gone from worst to first. We all know PFF are big fans of Dunbar after grading him the #2 cornerback in the league last year. However, the Seahawks are banking on him having an impact. With an interception in the bag and now a strong overall performance, this is a big step forward.

The same can’t be said for Shaquill Griffin. He was given a 52.1 grade against Atlanta and this week he only faired marginally better (57.2). This isn’t a good start to his contract year. It’s also worth noting that Dunbar, with his interception on Sunday, now has 33% of Griffin’s career turnover production in two games.

There’s been talk of a potential contract extension down the line. For me, if this continues, the Seahawks would be better off waiting this out. If Dunbar outperforms Griffin, he’s the one you want to prioritise. Griffin has always looked ‘decent’ rather than ‘great’. Letting him test the market might not be the worst thing to do but there’s still plenty of time for improvement this season.

There’s one other concern and that’s the loss of Marquise Blair. The Seahawks had big hopes for Blair and he was regularly talked up as a positive from training camp. He was replaced by Ugo Amadi, who took over as the slot corner midway through last season. Personally, I didn’t think he played well in the role. I don’t think he’s naturally suited to it.

Perhaps he deserves the benefit of the doubt coming into a game in progress but he only received a 54.3 grade for his performance against New England. Rather than revert back to base defense or try to fit Amadi into the position, they might be better off trying to add a more natural slot corner. It’s one of the positions where they’ve often been able to find a diamond in the rough. Is there someone out there on a practise squad who might be able to come in and compete for a job?

On offense there weren’t any surprises. Russell Wilson was given a fantastic 88.8 grade. David Moore, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Chris Carson all scored highly. Duane Brown received an 80.8 and Damien Lewis an 81.2 (Lewis received an elite run blocking grade of 90.6 but a horrendous pass blocking grade of 30.8).

Last week Mike Iupati scored poorly against the Falcons with a 37.9. Against the Patriots he was among Seattle’s top performers with a 71.8. His main competition for the left guard spot, Jordan Simmons, only received a 55.9 grade for his eight snaps.

Ethan Pocic was given a 65.8 grade which isn’t problematic. Brandon Shell’s 61.2, however, is right on the borderline of concern. Generally speaking though, the line did a good job against the Patriots. That’s encouraging, given the lack of pre-season games to build chemistry.

The tight ends were a mixed bag too. Will Dissly (69.0) received a decent grade but Jacob Hollister (55.1) was viewed less favourably. Neither compare to Greg Olsen though who was given a miserable 39.2 grade. His most notable contribution in the game was the pick six. The Seahawks need more from Olsen in the coming weeks.

Seattle’s special teams unit is ranked #1 in the league by DVOA after two weeks. Nick Bellore graded very well in this area against New England (75.7) closely followed by David Moore (73.7), Jacob Hollister (71.4), Lano Hill (71.4) and Tre Flowers (71.0). Never underestimate the importance of ST’s when considering roster decisions.

The Seahawks should call the Washington Football Team

Here’s a final thought for today. Yesterday I suggested the Seahawks had to do something to improve their pass rush. I think, in all likelihood, they’ll be forced to continue as they are. However, one name consistently comes up who might be a realistic target.

Ryan Kerrigan was desperate to return to the Washington Football Team this year because he was one sack away from equalling the franchise record of 91. With his two sacks already this season, he’s not only equalled the record — he’s broken it.

His contract expires at the end of the season and with Washington having spent first round picks on Chase Young and Montez Sweat, they are well stocked at defensive end. They’re in the early stages of a re-tool and re-shape on and off the field.

Franchise hero or not, it might be worth seeing what they can get for Kerrigan. Improve their draft stock and roll with Young and Sweat.

It’d be similar to the Duane Brown trade. Acquire a veteran who can deliver some instant impact and fill a crucial need.

It might cost a similar price. The Seahawks are already without their 2021 and 2022 first round picks and their 2021 third rounder. It might cost a second rounder for a player you aren’t guaranteed to retain, so it wouldn’t be cheap.

However, there’s also no reason why they couldn’t extend Kerrigan’s contract fairly quickly. He isn’t restricted from negotiating like Jadeveon Clowney was a year ago. You could argue the juice would be worth the squeeze if he can deliver the legit edge pressure the Seahawks are badly lacking.

With the sacks record in Washington now secure, would Kerrigan welcome an opportunity to try and help the Seahawks make a Super Bowl run?

And like Brown, could he provide 2-4 seasons of veteran quality at a position of serious need?

It’d be worth a call to Ron Rivera.

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Russell Wilson deserves better.

Seattle’s quarterback, somehow, continues to reach new levels. We’re witnessing a Hall of Fame career play out.

Wilson is capable of taking the Seahawks back to the Super Bowl. There’s absolutely no doubt about that. He’s also well complimented by weapons and while the offensive line is far from perfect, there are at least some encouraging signs that the unit is progressing.

All of this is going to be undermined by the pass rush.

The Seahawks have given up 970 yards in two games — more than any other team in the league. Their average so far of 415.5 yards per game conceded is by far the most in the NFL. Atlanta’s horrible defense is second (372 YPG) and the third worst is Jacksonville on 294 YPG.

Think about that for a second. The Seahawks are giving up 121 yards per game more than the third worst team for the statistic in the entire league.

Their four man rush is atrocious. There’s no speed off the edge. There’s no interior push.

Opponents understand this too. Atlanta and New England attempted a combined 98 pass attempts against Seattle’s defense. That’s 11 higher than any other team in the league has faced so far. And before anyone pins it on the two opponents faced — remember that Dan Quinn spent the off-season talking about re-committing to the running game and the Patriots ran all over the Dolphins in week one.

The Seahawks rely totally on a blitzing safety to generate pressure. That has consequences because according to NFL Next Gen Stats the Patriots were 6/6 for 157 yards when Jamal Adams was the nearest defender to the targeted receiver.

According to Pro Football Reference they are currently blitzing at a rate of 18% — ninth most in the league. That might not sound overly dramatic but they are blitzing to try and prop up the flaws up front. This isn’t a blitzing scheme.

Despite this, Seattle’s hurry percentage is just 4% after two games. Their pressure percentage is 11.9%. Their sack percentage is 3%. All are in the bottom third for the league.

I can’t separate these stats to show the splits between an Adams blitz and pressure created by the front four. My suspicion is a lot of Seattle’s successful rushes were delivered by Adams. He is a very good blitzer.

It’s unrealistic and unreasonable, however, to expect him to play well in coverage while needing to do the job of the pass rush.

With the news today that Bruce Irvin has suffered a torn ACL, the Seahawks’ pass rush is even weaker. It couldn’t afford to take a hit like this. They needed to add — not replace.

They have no choice but to be the pro-active front office we’ve seen in the past.

This is the team that traded for Sheldon Richardson when they needed an interior rusher. They traded for Duane Brown when they needed a left tackle. They moved to add Jadeveon Clowney a year ago when the pass rush threatened to consist of Cassius Marsh, Barkevious Mingo and Jacob Martin. They made a blockbuster deal for Jamal Adams a matter of weeks ago.

Now is the time to be aggressive again. Otherwise we’ll be sat here in January talking about how this pass rush wasted another season of prime Russell Wilson.

You can’t keep skipping near the cliff edge. You can’t keep asking Wilson to pull off miracles. You have to support him. You have to give him a defense that is capable of doing enough to complement his cooking.

That means a defense that puts up some resistance and can at the very least finish a game when you’re leading by 12 with mere minutes remaining.

It’s not about going out there and remaking the LOB two weeks into the season. It’s about doing something to improve the situation.

Benson Mayowa and L.J. Collier are not good enough to be your starting defensive ends. Mayowa played 90% of the snaps against New England and was ineffective. He’s never been in this role before. He’s not a 60-70 snap premier rusher.

Is 34-year-old Clay Matthews a cure-all solution? No. Is he better than Mayowa and Collier at rushing the passer? Yes.

The same goes for Cameron Wake. He’ll be 39 in January. Is he a better player to have rushing the edge on third down than Mayowa or Collier? Probably.

Is it time to get Marcell Dareus or Snacks Harrison on a plane for a try-out? If they don’t want to play football — fair enough. If they want to play — get them in for a look.

Are there players out there who might be available via trade? Possibly. It’s time to get on the phone and find out. I’m sure they probably already are. And if it takes giving up your 2021 second rounder to find a solution — so be it.

They might need to indulge in Sammy Watkins/Dante Fowler/Leonard Williams style rentals. That’s simply the situation they’re in now.

I’m not naive enough to think this team isn’t already working overtime to find solutions. Carroll and Schneider aren’t daft. They know this line isn’t good enough.

However — they knew that in March all the way through to August. They didn’t act when better options were available. They can’t continue to be inactive now that they’re seeing the fruits of their attempt to fix the pass rush this year.

If Bruce Irvin is simply replaced by Alton Robinson — a player already deemed not ready enough to even be active — and/or a return for Rasheem Green, the results are unlikely to change.

They can’t keep wasting seasons. They’ve got to 2-0 and now is the time to be bold.

How it came to this will and should be talked about throughout the season. Serious questions still need to be asked of Carroll as to how they ended up with this D-line despite identifying it as the top priority.

It’s also disheartening that once again their early draft picks are nowhere to be seen. In 2017 it was Malik McDowell and Ethan Pocic. In 2018 it was Rashaad Penny and Rasheem Green. In 2019 it was L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair. Now it’s Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor.

It’s remarkable that their last eight high picks have been so unable to contribute early. D.K. Metcalf is a great success story so far but it doesn’t account for this kind of run early in the draft. There’s too much of a trend.

Brooks had just eight snaps yesterday — only three more than Cody Barton.

It’s not too late to give yourself a fighting chance of getting just enough to support the man who can lead you to a Super Bowl though.

Look at DVOA so far. The Seahawks have the #2 ranked offense, the #1 ranked special teams (!!!) and the #23 ranked defense. Let’s be right — they’re as high as #23 because of Jamal Adams.

If you can get a better big bodied defensive tackle to support your linebackers and keep them clean and a better pass rusher off the edge, that #23 ranking could be closer to #16-18 and then you at least have a fighting chance.

The Seahawks should never have a near perfect game from Wilson combined with a 154 rushing day and a handsome 35-23 fourth quarter lead and nearly lose the game.

That cannot happen again. Now is the time for action.

It basically comes down to this — do you want to win a Super Bowl or not?

I want to win a Super Bowl. Russell Wilson wants to win a Super Bowl.

How about you?

If the answer is yes, they need to make additions.

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Just when you think you’ve seen it all.

The Pete Carroll era has delivered some incredible moments. Improbable games with ridiculous endings.

This was another.

On a night when Russell Wilson somehow elevated to yet another level, the hero at the end was a crashing Lano Hill, blowing up a run by Cam Newton (tidied up violently by L.J. Collier) to save the day.

The Seahawks have found every way to win a game over the last 10 years. This was simply the latest example.

And while the win was great, it should never have been this close. Had Seattle lost in the end, it would’ve been a disgrace. To lead 35-23 in the fourth quarter and nearly lose is unacceptable.

Everything we’ve talked about for months is playing out in front of us.

This defensive line and pass rush is going to cost the Seahawks. It nearly did tonight. It will do in the future. They’re 2-0 but how long until they drop a game because of this massive glaring issue?

They started the off-season stating it was a priority. Somehow they’ve made the pass rush even worse.

Nobody pushed the pocket from the interior. There was no speed off the edge. Nobody got into the backfield. The four man rush is absolutely abysmal.

It seems the defense is totally reliant on Jamal Adams for any semblance of pressure. Either he blitzes and gets home, or you face the consequences.

Third down after third down was converted. The Patriots passed for 22 first downs compared to only five running. They totalled 464 yards of offense. They were 7/12 on third down and 1/1 on fourth down.

Everyone blamed ‘garbage time’ for Matt Ryan’s 450 yards last week. This time, Cam Newton had 397.

In two games they’ve conceded 55 points and given up 970 yards.

970 yards!

It’s stunning, even after months of talking about it, that this is the situation. How did they handle their top priority this badly?

For all the hand-wringing about how often we’ve talked about this — don’t you see why? You need something from your pass rush. They are getting nothing.

Russell Wilson is playing his heart out and looks like a legit MVP candidate. The offense is rocking and rolling.

They are getting nothing from the defense.

Everything we said — that this pass rush will seriously risk wasting another season of prime Wilson — is coming true.

They have to do something. Even if it’s just Cam Wake and/or Clay Matthews. This can’t continue. Whether it’s Dak Prescott next week, one (or all) of the NFC West quarterbacks or someone else down the line, this will cost them. It will undermine the major positives on this team.

This offense can win a Super Bowl.

This defense will stop them doing so.

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Jason La Canfora is reporting today that the Seahawks and Pete Carroll could be close to announcing a contract extension:

The Seahawks are working to secure just that proposition, sources said, with the “wheels beginning to turn” on a new contract that would keep him in Seattle well beyond this season.

Carroll has one year left on his current deal, and while the Seahawks’ ownership is in some long-term doubt after Paul Allen passed away, league sources said the team is likely at least three years from going to market and Carroll is in line for another extension before then given the exemplary record he has posted.

This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Regardless of any criticism about the 2020 off-season, Carroll is a legendary figure in Seattle. There’s a dearth of upcoming Head Coaching candidates with many teams over the last few years taking punts on trendy college coaches or simply appointing anyone who worked with Sean McVay over the last five years.

There are always coordinators worth taking a chance on. McVay himself is a classic example. Kyle Shanahan was born to be a Head Coach and with hindsight, the Falcons probably should’ve controversially replaced Dan Quinn with Shanahan after their Super Bowl loss. Matt Ryan won the MVP with Shanahan as coach. Since he left Atlanta, they’ve been horribly average.

Sean McDermott is another recent appointment who is succeeding.

Yet at the moment, the options appear really limited.

You need more than someone who can cook up a good scheme. You need a leader and someone who can set out a clear vision. You need a culture-builder.

Carroll has done this in Seattle and had sustained success. That’s not to say he shouldn’t be held to account. The Seahawks have won the NFC West only once in the last five years and despite the brilliance of Russell Wilson, they haven’t got close to returning to the Super Bowl. That has to change. You don’t have to want to fire the coach to state the need for progress. It’s high time the Seahawks took a step forward and pointing that out is perfectly fair.

Equally though, a change for changes sake isn’t a good idea. Bill Belichick had to wait a decade between Super Bowl wins number three and four. He then won three more Championship’s. The Seahawks can have success too, deep into Carroll’s tenure.

I’ve never thought for a second that the end of the Carroll era was near. There was a lot of click-bait nonsense written on other sites over the summer suggesting this could be the case. Carroll’s enthusiasm for coaching remains clear and obvious. I actually think the social justice aspect of this year (with Carroll constantly referring to this as ‘the season of protest’) is right up his street. If anything, this is probably inspiring him to continue for even longer to aid a cause he believes in.

The other thing to consider is the ownership situation that La Canfora also references. The Seahawks remain in a holding pattern. It’s unrealistic that the current ownership structure would remain for the long haul. Eventually someone will buy the team and begin a new era. La Canfora suggests this could be three years away.

Under the current ownership, nobody should expect any changes to the front office structure. One of the first things Jody Allen and her team did was give Pete Carroll a contract extension. They know the franchise needs stability and leadership. They know they have two respected and capable figures at the top of the tree in Carroll and Schneider.

Again though, it’s up to the pair to justify this trust and make the most of the faith and power invested in them. As you’re well aware by now, the Seahawks didn’t have a great off-season. They also face big challenges in the future. They only have a handful of players contracted for next season. There’s a strong possibility of a reduced salary cap. They have no first round pick until 2023. They need to come to an agreement with Jamal Adams on a massive extension and they’ll need to plan for the long term future at key positions such as left tackle.

They’ll also have to try and have another go at fixing the pass rush in 2021. Luckily, there are a long list of names scheduled to reach free agency next year:

Matt Judon
Leonard Williams
Melvin Ingram
Shaquil Barrett
Bud Dupree
Jadeveon Clowney
Yannick Ngakoue
Justin Houston
Ryan Kerrigan
Olivier Vernon
Solomon Thomas
Sheldon Rankins
Takk McKinley
Larry Ogunjobi

It’s also fairly likely Von Miller will depart Denver.

There are also a number of big-name offensive linemen reaching the market:

Brandon Scherff
Joe Thuney
Trent Williams
David Bakhtiari
Alex Mack
Mike Pouncey
Alejandro Villanueva
Ronnie Stanley

Some of these players will be retained by their clubs, obviously. Such as Ronnie Stanley. There will be, however, an opportunity to try and inject some needed talent in the trenches.

If Carroll is given a long term contract extension, securing the O-line and D-line should be the priority alongside extending Adams’ contract.

***UPDATE***

Ian Rapoport is also now reporting on Carroll’s contract, although he hasn’t credited La Canfora for being the first to reveal the news.

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Before getting into today’s article, please check out our latest podcast finishing off the Atlanta game talk and moving on to a preview of the Patriots game.

The Seattle Seahawks are very reliant on three players.

Everyone knows how important Russell Wilson is.

Jamal Adams and Bobby Wagner are essentially the defensive version.

It’s not even worth considering what Seattle’s defense would look like without their elite pair.

There’s room for improvement with certain players. It’d be unfair to judge Quinton Dunbar after one game, especially after a challenging pre-season.

Yet the week one PFF grades below speak for themselves. The sheer brilliance of Adams masked a lot of warts on Sunday. And regardless of the degree in which Russell Wilson is donning a chef’s hat and apron — they are going to need much more from their defense to make a serious run.

PFF grades on defense

Bobby Wagner — 87.3
Jamal Adams — 85.8
K.J. Wright — 71.2
Damontre Moore — 70.1 (on 20 or so snaps)
Jordyn Brooks — 69.5 (again barely any snaps)
Lano Hill — 65.8
Bruce Irvin — 63.4
Rasheem Green — 62.3
Jarran Reed – 60.6
Poona Ford— 58.7
Benson Mayowa — 56.3
L.J. Collier — 55.7
Quandre Diggs — 53.8
Shaquill Griffin — 52.1
Marquise Blair — 44.9
Quinton Dunbar — 40.6

Here’s how PFF explain their grading scale:

100-90 – Elite
89-85 – Pro Bowler
84-70 – Starter
69-60 – Backup
59-0 – Replaceable

You might say it’s only one game. Yet it confirms all previous fears about this defense. A couple of stars (Wagner, Adams) but serious issues elsewhere.

Look at how the starting D-line graded:

Jarran Reed – 60.6
Poona Ford— 58.7
Benson Mayowa — 56.3
L.J. Collier — 55.7

All but Reed graded above the lowest ‘replacement level’ grade — and he only just avoided it.

This isn’t just a ‘could be better’ situation. It’s a serious problem.

Take Benson Mayowa for example. Many will be surprised at his 56.3 grade. What you’ve got to remember though is he’s being asked to do a role he’s never done before (and possibly isn’t suited to). He’s always been a rotational defensive end. Some might say, that’s what he’s best at. Yet in Seattle he played 71 snaps — the fifth most on defense.

As a rotational piece, Mayowa is a solid option. As a premier rusher? The results are somewhat represented in the grade. He will flash from time-to-time but is he able to hold up the end of a line for +70 snaps week-in and week-out and deliver a consistent performance? Arguably not.

It didn’t cost the Seahawks against Atlanta because of the brilliance of Wilson and the up-tempo, pro-active, aggressive offensive game plan. If they can do that most weeks, they might be able to cover up the problem like an unwanted pimple. That pimple, that blemish, will still be there though.

The concern will be that come the serious games that decide division titles and playoff progress, this level of performance simply won’t be good enough.

It’s a real shame too. We saw a glimpse of Seattle’s potential on Sunday. Elite level players displaying their talents. Complementary players on offense to support the QB.

There shouldn’t be a single unit on this team threatening to ruin anything. Not after the veritable splurge Seattle had this year.

You can’t be great everywhere. It’s unrealistic.

You also can’t be terrible somewhere and hope to be serious contenders.

Look at the Chiefs in 2018. Patrick Mahomes was unbelievable. The offense was dynamic and at times unstoppable. They won 12 games. Yet they came unstuck in the playoffs because the defense was a problem. Thus — they traded for Frank Clark and made a big splash to land Tyrann Mathieu.

It’s surprising they haven’t acted this week. D’Andre Walker, as much as I liked him at Georgia, hasn’t played football in nearly two years. The chances of him having an impact this year are remote at best. If Alton Robinson can’t get activated, what chance has Walker got?

Seahawks fans are generally not big supporters of Clay Matthews. It shouldn’t have ever come to needing him as an emergency signing in mid-September. I won’t go over old ground but they should’ve signed other players long before now.

Yet surely it’s better to have him on the roster, providing something, rather than D’Andre Walker?

The fact that he isn’t here can only be down to money. Seattle has cap space to play with but that doesn’t mean they’re going to automatically match Everson Griffen’s salary in Dallas for example. Presumably Matthews wants a certain amount and interested parties such as Seattle and Denver have so far not matched it.

They also need a defensive tackle. Someone to absorb space on early downs and provide interior stoutness versus the run. Those players are available but again, what are they asking for?

With contracts no longer guaranteed now that the season has begun, there’s nothing to lose in adding a player or two and seeing how it goes. In a few weeks time you can make a call — especially if the trade market offers better options as teams fall out of contention. Last year the trade for Quandre Diggs was inspired. They need to find a D-line version somewhere in 2020.

They brought in Breeland Speaks for a tryout this week. Speaks was the #46 overall pick in 2018 but struggled for form and health in Kansas City.

The Chiefs draft for physical ideals in the first two rounds. Look at their early picks over the last few years. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Willie Gay Jr, Mecole Hardman, Juan Thornhill, Breeland Speaks, Patrick Mahomes, Tanoh Kpassagnon. They seek out high upside in terms of explosive traits and speed. You can also include Frank Clark in this list. He possessed the best combination of explosive athleticism and agility to enter the league in the last 10 years.

Speaks ran an impressive 4.87 forty at 283lbs, a 1.64 10-yard split and he has good length (34 inch arms). His highlights tape was strong but his overall play at Ole Miss was inconsistent.

There’s nothing wrong with taking a look at Speaks. However, there’s not a great history of second round picks being dumped after two years then emerging as key role players elsewhere, after sitting on the open market for a couple of weeks.

Neither is he really what the Seahawks need. He’s more of an inside/out type or a nickel interior rusher. Seattle badly needs a proper EDGE threat and a good interior run defender.

Even so — he’s probably willing to accept a job for a modest price.

In terms of the PFF grades on offense, unsurprisingly Wilson led the way:

Russell Wilson — 91.2
Duane Brown — 75.9
Tyler Lockett — 74.6
Greg Olsen — 71.4
Jacob Hollister — 70.1
D.K. Metcalf — 68.8
Damien Lewis — 67.9
Chris Carson — 65.2
Brandon Shell — 64.4
Freddie Swain — 63.9
David Moore — 60.5
Nick Bellore — 60.0
Luke Willson — 60.0
Penny Hart — 60.0
Jordan Simmons — 58.5
Travis Homer — 58.5
Carlos Hyde — 57.2
Ethan Pocic — 55.2
Will Dissly — 52.9
Mike Iupati — 37.9

The big concern here is the performance of Iupati and Pocic. It’s perhaps not surprising that the Seahawks gave Jordan Simmons some snaps at left guard. If this grade becomes a trend for Pocic, it’ll increase the chances of Justin Britt returning.

The positives are Brandon Shell must’ve recovered to get a 64.4 given the way he started the game. Damien Lewis had a good debut and Duane Brown was superb. Seattle’s key playmakers all graded well too.

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This was brought to my attention yesterday but I decided to let things rest for 24 hours. Russell Wilson’s relationship with the Seahawks is a delicate topic.

Fans don’t want to contemplate any possibility that he isn’t completely and wholly satisfied with the team.

So when Mike Florio announced on Sunday Night Football that Wilson had told the Seahawks — ‘let me cook or we’re going to have a problem’ — the reaction was quite predictable.

There were several mentions of the no-trade clause in his contract. Others suggested Florio wasn’t a reliable source of information (to put it politely).

However, this is something we’ve touched on a bit this year — with good reason.

Let’s start with a quick recap of the situation.

Ten days ago I wrote about the subject in my review of the off-season:

This has been a different off-season for Wilson. He’s been more outspoken for sure. He called on the team to sign superstars at the Pro-Bowl. He liked tweets about big name skill players in the draft. He had a very public workout with Antonio Brown.

People he’s very close with in the media have been very critical of the Seahawks. Colin Cowherd, a confidant of Wilson’s, casually compared his situation to Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs QB has the offense tailored to him, he has input in their draft picks and they’ve supported him with weapons galore, pass protection and a complementary defense.

Wilson wants to win so badly he named his newborn son after the word. Yet in the last five years the Seahawks have only won their division once. Forget Super Bowls. They can’t even win the NFC West.

He’s seen the ‘Let Russ Cook’ stuff because he’s a social media addict. He’ll know as well as anyone the strong and weak areas of the roster.

Would anyone blame him for feeling like he’s taken for granted? He doesn’t have Mahomes’ weapons, offensive freedom and too often he needs to drag the team back from a massive deficit because they’ve started slowly or they’re ill-equipped to deal with an opponent from the first whistle.

I’m not for a second implying that Wilson is on the brink of demanding a trade or doesn’t see his future in Seattle. I do think, however, that this time will come unless the Seahawks match the ambitions of their star player.

To me it was a simple reading of the tea leaves. Wilson constantly talks about wanting to be known as the greatest ‘winner’ in the history of the NFL. That won’t happen if he ends his career with the same number of Super Bowl rings as Nick Foles, Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer. He has one fewer ring than Eli Manning currently.

It’s clear that he wants to be a Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, Lebron James type figure. A multi-year champion. One of the all-time greats.

Not only is he not achieving success in terms of titles, he’s not even getting any MVP votes.

He turns 32 in November and he’s very much in the peak years of his career. Even if he plays for another 10 seasons, he won’t possess this combination of athleticism and knowledge for much longer. He’s in a rush to succeed and if the Seahawks cannot take him to where he wants to go — it’s not improbable to imagine a Cleveland/Lebron type situation emerging.

The Seahawks have been treading water for far too long. It’s six years since their last Super Bowl run. Since then, they haven’t come close to returning to the big game. Yet both the Rams and Niners have elevated to that level, despite previously being perennial losers.

I don’t believe Wilson is planning his departure. I think his ideal situation is to play for the Seahawks for the rest of his career and win Championships.

I do think, however, he’s applying a bit of pressure to a franchise that needed a kick up the arse. Especially after a strange off-season where they failed to do much of anything in free agency and only really improved by trading the house for Jamal Adams right before training camp.

Fans should probably be grateful. Would you rather Wilson be fat and happy about his massive contract and 10-11 wins a year? Or would you rather the star player be setting a high bar for the team?

He wants more control of the offense. He knows they can’t rely on the trench play to win so it’s time to take the game to opponents.

And the good news is based on the win in Atlanta, the Seahawks are listening.

But that doesn’t mean Wilson’s concerns don’t exist or that what Florio said is untrue.

Let’s go back to the two counters fans are making for his report.

Firstly, the no-trade clause. I think we’ve all watched enough sports to know what these are all about. This isn’t a handcuff for the player to prevent him going anywhere else. This is a handcuff for the team to prevent them trading him somewhere he doesn’t want to go.

If Wilson said to Seattle, ‘I want out’, the no-trade clause wouldn’t be a factor in the slightest. The Seahawks could reject that request. They could try to build bridges. They could offer him more money. They could also determine that the relationship had broken and that it’d be best for both parties to move on.

The no-trade clause prevents them sending him somewhere like Jacksonville or Cleveland. The team would have to work with the player to find a reasonable new home in order to waive the clause.

The two parties are not locked together in the slightest.

Secondly there’s the credibility of the person breaking the news.

I’ve been a journalist for a long time. Regardless of what you think about Florio, you never say the following unless you are absolutely certain:

“I know for a fact that that conversation was had in a very poignant fashion with the team in a not quite flat-out ultimatum but the message is clear — let Russ cook or, I was told by a source close to Russell Wilson, you’re going to be baking the farewell cake.”

He states it as a fact that the conversation was had and then cites a source close to Wilson. You don’t make that up. If you’re not entirely sure about something, you might say you ‘understand’ something to be true. You might say you’ve ‘heard’ a few whispers.

When you state something is a fact and refer to a source close to the player, you’re speaking with 100% confidence. He didn’t hedge his bets in the slightest.

It might be convenient for Seahawks fans to assume he has made it up and that all is hunky dory. Florio’s language, if you’re willing to be open-minded about his report, is convincing.

And nobody else has disputed what he’s reported.

So who is Florio’s source?

You only have to cast your mind back to the contract negotiations in 2015 and 2019. Florio was a regular reporter from the perspective of the Wilson camp. Mark Rodgers, Wilson’s agent, has appeared on PFT and has been interviewed by Florio.

This is merely speculation on my behalf, of course. Yet if you’re wondering what kind of relationship Florio has with the Wilson camp, or who the source might be, you don’t have to be Poirot to work it out.

Again — this doesn’t mean Wilson’s time in Seattle is coming to an end. It simply means it’s time for the Seahawks to match the ambitions of their star player and do what it takes to contend.

Based on the Atlanta game, the early signs are positive.

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Nobody can ever accuse Pete Carroll of being stuck in his ways.

After an off-season of ‘let Russ cook’ ringing around the internet — Carroll delivered what many have asked for. Including, probably, his quarterback.

Having watched Patrick Mahomes guide the Chiefs to a Championship earlier this year, the Seahawks are clearly prepared to live and die by their star player.

That’s the right call.

This version of the roster is simply not capable of playing complementary football. We saw why today. Matt Ryan was given the freedom of Atlanta. The defensive line couldn’t do anything in terms of pass rush or run defense.

The only way this Seahawks team can succeed is to take the game to opponents. No more ‘can you win a game in the first quarter?’ stuff. They have to attack, be on the front foot and force teams into mistakes.

Had they played to shorten the game today, they would’ve been pummelled. Ryan predictably finished with 450 yards (10 fewer than Matt Schuab a year ago). They ran with ease when it was viable to do so. They scored 25 points.

This used to be unheard of in the LOB era but this is how it’s going to be in 2020.

The solution is to force Atlanta into situations they don’t want to be in. Today, that meant going for it on fourth down four times — all ended in failed attempts. It means having to abandon the run (which was an easy source of yards) because they’re chasing the scoreboard.

Seattle impacted the Falcons via points. Not physical pressure.

The Carroll Seahawks cannot be the Carroll Seahawks this year. Otherwise they will lose games. They have to let Russ cook. They have to roll with Russ.

The interesting thing will be to see if they can play like this every week. No opponent could’ve predicted the Seahawks would do this today. Next week, Bill Belichick will know it’s coming.

Can Seattle do what Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan do and continue to find creative ways to attack opponents?

They’ll need to. As good as this was as a start — now comes the real challenge for this new look offense.

Major positives and striking negatives

Jamal Adams had a debut to savour. He led the team in tackles (12), had a sack, two TFL’s and two QB hits. Somehow, this barely tells the story of his impact.

Anyone who saw him in New York knew he was an incredible player. Today, those who maybe hadn’t seem him before got a glimpse of what he’s all about. He’s a very different player to Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas but he might be even more talented. That doesn’t mean he’ll be as impactful as Kam as the soul and heartbeat of the team — yet on the field, he possesses rare qualities.

Kudos to Carroll and Ken Norton for finding creative ways to get him involved. Hopefully, this is the start of a 16-game tour de force.

It was also good to see Bobby Wagner perform well in coverage and have a strong opening weekend.

However, all fears about the defensive line were emphatically confirmed. Throughout the game I just kept thinking — imagine this team with even a fairly decent D-line.

There was no resistance in the running game as Atlanta consistently gashed the Seahawks in the first half. Only this time an opponent didn’t need any tricks, sweeps or misdirection.

Just run straight at Seattle. You will get yards.

Aside from Benson Mayowa’s pursuit on a coverage sack (which was a great and timely play to be fair) — the Seahawks only created any pressure when they blitzed. Sometimes that will be fine. Some opponents, possibly the three dynamic offensive NFC West rivals, will exploit that dependency on blitzing.

The four man rush was as impotent as expected. And for all the positives within this game, you can’t help but feel that Wilson, Wagner and Adams are going to be let down by this D-line at some point.

Offensively there were issues too. The O-line, unsurprisingly, had a rough start. Wilson was hammered far too often in the first half. That will be a consequence of a pass-happy attack and will come with the territory. However, Brandon Shell did not deliver a reassuring performance at right tackle. Damien Lewis also had some rookie moments and I need to watch Ethan Pocic at center more closely to judge.

This is a big test for the offensive line under a new offensive approach. There’s never been so much reliance on the quarterback before. They are in charge of his safety. They’re no longer going to be relied upon to run block and with Wilson scrambling to avoid pressure.

That said, Wilson did deliver a statement performance that he intends to be in the MVP race again this year. He can only do that with stats, big wins and an offense based around him for the first time. This was a terrific start including a 143.1 quarterback rating, four touchdowns and 351 total yards.

Perhaps more importantly, the Seahawks showed they can start faster and better with great tempo.

It’s also testament to the style they played that third down didn’t really matter. Too often in Wilson’s career, it’s basically decided games. Today they went 3/9 and it never felt like a factor.

This was a good start but next week will be an interesting test. Despite losing half a defense and Tom Brady, Belichick’s Patriots found a way to handle the upstart Dolphins today. It’s still a game the Seahawks should win though. So go win it.

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In the latest podcast Robbie and I run through the season opener in Atlanta. Please spread the word for the new podcast, share and like the video on YouTube and let us know what your thoughts are on the game in the comments section.

One NFC West Championship in the last five years.

Early playoff eliminations.

Between nine and eleven wins.

This is what the Seahawks have come to be since their Super Bowl run in 2014. It’s where I think they’ll continue to be this year.

I’m not going to rehash points made in the detailed review of the off-season posted over the weekend. Yet ultimately I don’t think the Seahawks made best use of their resources this year and they failed to sufficiently address their most glaring need.

They did make a significant addition in Jamal Adams — although at a great cost. Yet it’s fair to wonder if Adams’ impact (and that of a very expensive linebacker corps) will be impacted playing behind what could realistically be the worst defensive line in the NFL.

On offense the addition of Greg Olsen should be a positive, as will the return of Will Dissly if he can stay healthy. D.K. Metcalf has more experience and will be expected to take another step forward. There are questions about the O-line though with three new starters. Ethan Pocic, a draft bust, is at center almost by default. Damien Lewis is a rookie, even if he has a lot of potential. Brandon Shell was benched by the Jets last year.

It’s also worth noting that Duane Brown is now 35-years-old and Mike Iupati is 33.

Russell Wilson is talented enough to prevent the Seahawks ever going lower than nine wins. For him to reach that point in 2017 when everything went against the Seahawks is testament to his qualities. We’ve pretty much seen a worst-case scenario with him at quarterback.

He’s also good enough for the Seahawks to overachieve in terms of win/loss record, as we saw a year ago. They had no business coming within a yard of 12 wins. I don’t think we’ll see another team get to 11 wins with a seven-point differential ever again. They were 9-2 in games decided by seven points or less. No team has ever matched that in the modern era. Seattle also won five games when trailing by +7 points and three games when trailing by +10 points. This is unheard of in the NFL and feels somewhat unsustainable.

Many people like to point to last season as evidence that the Seahawks were on the right track or deserve to be considered an established contender. I never felt that way. To me they looked like a team that needed another off-season. That’s partly why this year has been such a crushing disappointment — they had the money and draft picks to take the next step and I don’t believe they did enough to fix their biggest problems in the trenches.

Wilson’s sheer quality and some fortune gave them a record that was arguably a mirage. After all, consider the following wins:

— Beat the Bengals in week one by a single point, despite Cincinnati going on to claim the worst record in the NFL. Andy Dalton threw for 418 yards and two touchdowns.

— Only just defeated the Steelers 28-26 despite playing half the game against a backup quarterback.

— Won against the LA Rams 30-29 thanks to a missed kick by Greg Zuerlein.

— Beat a struggling Cleveland Browns team 32-28 thanks, mainly, to a horrendous performance by Baker Mayfield.

— Almost blew a handsome half-time advantage against a 1-6 Atlanta Falcons team on a day where Matt Schaub threw for 460 yards.

— Needed Wilson magic to out-gun Tampa Bay 40-34 in overtime on a day when the defense couldn’t do anything to stop Jameis Winston.

— Won in Santa Clara against the Niners thanks to a solo performance by Jadeveon Clowney and a missed kick by the stop-gap San Francisco kicker.

— Almost threw away comfortable leads against Minnesota (home) and Carolina (road).

Over the years I’ve often said a ‘win’s a win’ — especially during some of the messier periods of the Carroll era. That remains the case with the above. Whether you win by one point or 20 — it’s the same result.

The point is though — it would’ve only taken two of the above to swing the other way (such as the missed kicks by the Rams and Niners) and suddenly you’re looking at a nine-win season and no playoffs.

So yes — the Seahawks were close to winning the NFC West. They were also close to not making the post-season too.

I do an instant reaction piece after every game and have done for years. Sometimes I think it’s useful to look back and see how you feel about a game immediately after it. In May I revised how I felt about the 2019 season. Here are some highlights (the name of the article is in bold):

Seahawks beat themselves, lose to Saints
“Whether it was poor preparation, execution, decision making or play-calling — this was a terrible performance.”

Seahawks’ luck runs out, they drop to 5-2
“Nothing will ever top the 2017 beat-down by the Rams. Yet these two games — against the Saints and now the Ravens — are extremely concerning. It pulls the curtain back on the reality with this team. You can get after them, even at Century Link Field.”

Seahawks struggle unnecessarily in Atlanta
“Today they faced an Atlanta team on its knees. They were 1-6 coming into today and without key players, including quarterback Matt Ryan. Seattle rolled to a 24-0 lead by half-time and the rout was on. Finish the game. Go back home. No stress, for once. Assert your will. Dominate. Show some teeth. Set the tone. The Seahawks lost the second half 20-3. They were less tiger and more kitten. Matt Schaub ended up throwing for 460 yards. Atlanta had thirty first downs.”

Russell Wilson saves the Seahawks
“In 2018 the Seahawks regained their identity. A year later, they’ve lost it again. The Seahawks are 7-2 and it’s 100% down to their MVP candidate playing quarterback. Russell Wilson is a genius. At the exact moment his team has needed him to take yet another step forward — he’s pulled it off.”

Seahawks flop in LA, drop to 10-3
In the last five games between these teams, the Rams have scored 42, 33, 36, 29 and 28. In other words, the Seahawks were either going to need to turn this into their type of game or they needed to score a lot of points. They did neither. They’ve now lost four of the last five games to LA with the solitary win coming off a missed field goal. The Seahawks aren’t chasing the Rams in the NFC West this year but they’re still chasing them on the field.”

Injury-hit Seahawks lose to Cardinals
“Very few teams can withstand this number of injuries. This was still a humbling afternoon. They were beaten, handily, in all four facet’s of the game — offense, defense, special teams and coaching. They suffered a third home spanking of the season. If they lose to the Niners next week, they’ll finish 4-4 at home and they’ll be 14-10 at home over the last three seasons.”

Seahawks come within an inch
“The game also highlighted, again, Seattle’s greatest weakness moving forward. The defense has struggled all year to create pressure and impact games. If they’re going to take the next step in 2020 they cannot field a D-line as inadequate as this again. Even a modicum of pressure or resistance could’ve been the difference today. It was simply too easy for the 49ers.”

Seahawks beaten in Green day
“They have to re-sign Jadeveon Clowney. They can’t rebuild their D-line by allowing their top player, at a great age, to walk away for nothing in free agency. They desperately need to add a speed rusher who can trouble offensive tackles with quickness and burst. Whether it’s going out and signing Dante Fowler, trading for someone like Von Miller or a different move entirely — the main thing the pass rush (and defense in general) is lacking is speed. A talent infusion is needed on the D-line.”

There were big problems a year ago. That’s why I often trot out the defensive horror stats that I listed in Saturday’s article.

The hope for many is that Jamal Adams can help provide a tougher edge to the defense this year. He will also provide a needed X-factor. Yet many of the issues still remain. Improved speed in the pass rush is going to rest on the shoulders of a soon-to-be 33-year-old SAM linebacker. They haven’t increased their talent on the D-line. Many of the key issues from 2019 simply remain.

They now run the risk of developing into a team relying on the quarterback. There’s nothing massively unusual about that. Green Bay relied on Aaron Rodgers for years. That in itself is part of the problem though. The Seahawks have kind of become the Packers. Rodgers won one Super Bowl then struggled, year after year, to get back there. He’s actually returned to the NFC Championship game so they’ve got closer than Seattle. Yet ultimately his supporting cast wasn’t good enough, his defense wasn’t good enough, the defensive scheme was stale and could be exploited and the Packers consistently lost to more physical teams.

The Seahawks face the same issues now. You expect great things because of Wilson. However there’s too much responsibility on his shoulders. Teams do exploit Seattle’s weaknesses and the defensive scheme hasn’t changed in a decade. They play in a conference where one coach (Sean McVay) has got all of the answers for Pete Carroll’s defense and Kyle Shanahan did what he wanted in week 17 last season with the pass rush on its knees.

Part of the problem for me comes down to Carroll’s desire to play complete-circle football. He wants everything to connect — the offense, defense and special teams. The running game and the defense. Ball control and takeaways.

There’s nothing wrong with that philosophy. It won Seattle a Championship. Yet for too long now they’ve not had a completed circle. The running game was a hot mess in 2017. The defense hasn’t been good enough for the last two years. Can anyone remember the last time Seattle’s special teams unit was a positive?

If you set out to play connected football with missing pieces it just won’t work.

I don’t have much sympathy with the ‘Let Russ Cook’ movement on twitter. It’s mostly shit-posting anyway. It’s hard to argue though that the Seahawks wouldn’t be better off just living or dying on the arm of Wilson given the major question marks at other positions.

I’m not convinced they’re good enough to play complementary football.

Having said all that, Wilson is still an incredible player. It won’t be a surprise, for example, if the Seahawks defense struggles horribly against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, gives up another 450-500 passing yards and Seattle still wins because of Wilson.

That’s why I think they have a floor of about nine wins with their quarterback.

The frustrating thing is with a different off-season they could’ve realistically been pushing for 13 or 14 wins. Even in the NFC West. A concerted effort to properly address the trenches followed by the Adams trade and you’d be looking at a veritable powerhouse.

I think we’ll see a similar pattern to 2019. Close games, often high-scoring, where Wilson will need to carry the team. There will be high points, probably because of Wilson. I also think they will have beatings similar to the losses against New Orleans, Baltimore and LA.

I do think they will make the playoffs. That’s easier this year anyway with seven teams making it. I think, ultimately, they won’t go any further than the wildcard or divisional round (again).

If that’s the case, especially if the pass rush holds them back, I think next year will be intriguing. They won’t have the means to do much in terms of additions in free agency or the draft. There will be players they need to make a call on in terms of contracts. I don’t think Wilson is going to accept many more years where the Seahawks make the post-season because of his presence, only to fall at the first or second hurdle because of glaring issues in terms of roster building. If he was more outspoken this year, imagine what next year could be like if history repeats.

My prediction for the Seahawks in 2020 is 10-6.

Game-by-game predictions

Atlanta (A) — L
New England (H) — W
Dallas (H) — L
Miami (A) — W
Minnesota (H) — L
Arizona (A) — W
San Francisco (H) — L
Buffalo (A) — W
LA Rams (A) — L
Arizona (H) — W
Philadelphia (A) — W
New York Giants (H) — W
New York Jets (H) — W
Washington (A) — W
LA Rams (H) — W
San Francisco (A) — L

Super Bowl champion prediction — Kansas City

I think the unusual season is perfectly suited for the defending champions. They have a settled roster, have avoided any kind of off-season drama and are very capable of carrying on where they left off. They know what they are, what they need to do and I think Patrick Mahomes will cement himself as the player of his generation.

Feel free to post your own predictions in the comments section.

One final thought for today. The LA Rams have just agreed a record-breaking contract with Jalen Ramsey worth around $20m a year.

Both the Rams with Ramsey and the Texans with Laremy Tunsil had to pay well over the odds because they failed to agree terms on a new contract before completing trades.

The Seahawks are facing a similar dilemma with Jamal Adams.

They have no leverage in negotiations. They either have to pay up or give up two first round picks on a short-term rental.

Adams is probably going to want to top Ramsey’s deal and become the highest paid defensive back in the league. The Seahawks might have to go beyond $20m a year which would be an eye-watering amount for the position.

All three teams warrant criticism for making these trades without a new contract being part of the agreement. It’s completely reckless. As soon as the ink is dry on the trade, all leverage is conceded to the player.

The Seahawks faced the prospect of starting the 2020 season with the only significant differences to their defense being Benson Mayowa replacing Jadeveon Clowney and Bruce Irvin replacing Mychal Kendricks. That’s why they made the Adams trade a month before the season started. You could call it a panic move, very easily.

Perhaps the nature of it being somewhat a desperation trade played into the lack of forward planning on a contract? Either way, it’s going to cost them big time in terms of cap space down the line.

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