Category: Front Page News (Page 96 of 367)

Our early look at the 2021 draft was curtailed somewhat because there were more important things to talk about regarding the Seahawks. Today I wanted to run through some thoughts on five players I’ve watched recently.

Xavier Thomas (DE, Clemson)

It’s pretty clear he’s a unique athlete on tape. His quickness and acceleration is top drawer and you see little flashes where he really wows you with his athleticism. That said, there are also some concerns.

At SPARQ he ran a 4.58 forty, a 4.30 short shuttle and he jumped a 33 inch vertical. He was the #4 overall recruit in High School and in terms of pure potential — he’s every bit the five star prospect. The issue is that while he has the testing numbers he doesn’t have a frame to fit any obvious position.

He’s 6-2 and 265lbs. He’s too stocky to drop down to linebacker where his speed and quickness could make a real difference. He’s not long and lean enough to be a LEO but he’s undersized for a five-technique or inside/out rusher. He also has some stiffness trying to bend-and-straighten off the edge and he doesn’t have the length to keep his frame clean when he has to engage.

He had two sacks in 12 games in 2019 and only eight TFL’s. He has the big recruiting chops and the high-end athleticism to get a mention in scouting circles — but he has a long way to go to prove he can be an Adrian Clayborn type. It’s also worth noting how freakishly special Clayborn’s short shuttle was (4.13 at 281lbs). Players like him are rare. Thomas has to aspire to be that type of player but it’s hard to get that excited about him based on what we’ve seen so far. This will be a big season for him.

Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)

Watching Bateman last year was a thing of beauty. In several big games he racked up targets and completions. It just felt like he caught everything. He especially showed well in the bigger games against Penn State, Iowa and Purdue — all wins.

All-22 tape is available online so you can really get a feel for what he does well. You have to say he’s not particularly sudden in his release and he perhaps lacks the speed to challenge the top-10. He was only a three-star recruit and didn’t do any SPARQ testing. He doesn’t create the kind of easy separation teams want to see.

Nevertheless, there’s still so much to like. He creates subtle late separation, appears to be fairly sound in his route-running and he has a second gear which is just quick enough to threaten downfield. He doesn’t fight the ball, he gains position well against defensive backs and can win the contested grabs. He makes the highlight-reel catches and was just so consistent when Minnesota needed a play in 2019.

If he plays well again in 2020, his ability to jump up boards will depend on his testing. If nothing else he’s a reliable playmaker with enough sparkle to be more than just a chain-mover.

Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)

There’s a lot of buzz about Lance especially after last season where he recorded 42 total touchdowns and zero interceptions. You can’t argue with the numbers and he’s a very creative player who fits the modern style of the NFL. He’s mobile, can throw from difficult angles and he can take off and scramble for a first down or a touchdown. He’s a lot of fun to watch.

In terms of arm strength and physicality it all seems good enough. He’s listed at about 6-3 and 224lbs so there are no issues there. It’s unlikely, given the level of competition, that anything remarkable would happen in 2020 to hammer his stock. We’ll need to see of course if all levels of college football restart in 2020.

There are some things to watch for though. Firstly, his offense rarely requires him to do any more than one read. You don’t see any evidence of him going through progressions or facing any real challenges. Often he had a ton of time in the pocket allowing for receivers to uncover. The craziest thing though was watching his touchdowns and seeing how often his tight end or receiver was wide open for an easy throw. It’s as if they played against 10 players on defense for a season.

Lance won’t get it that easy at the next level and teams will need to judge whether he can cope with a much more pressurised situation at the next level. Even so, Carson Wentz couldn’t stay healthy at North Dakota State and he landed at #2 overall. Lance has stayed healthy and productive and he fits what a lot of teams are looking for now.

Chuba Hubbard (RB, Oklahoma State)

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. I like Hubbard as a college running back. He’s fun to watch. But he doesn’t look remotely like a NFL running back.

He’s 6-1 and 207lbs and it’s like watching a receiver running the football. It’s quite pleasant watching him in the ultra-spread system at Oklahoma State, exploiting running lanes and breaking off massive runs every week. His highlight reel is basically just one long untouched sprint after another.

At the next level though, those lanes aren’t going to be there. He’s going to need to go between the tackles, handle the physical nature of the pro’s and he’s not just going to run in a straight line downfield for 60 yards every week. At best he looks like a complimentary piece but even then — it’s hard to imagine him working out in pass-pro on third downs and he only had 23 receptions last season.

Sometimes great college players simply aren’t destined to make great pro’s. That, unfortunately, seems to be Hubbard’s likely outcome unless he can develop his frame and retain his burst and quickness.

Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)

Watching Cisco was the first nice surprise of the off-season. I don’t think he looks particularly dynamic as an athlete and he’ll have some limitations in that regard to ground his stock in a fairly modest range. That said, he’s a playmaker with a knack for turnovers and he’s capable of packing a punch despite a modest frame.

He only ran a 4.61 at SPARQ but he performed better in the vertical (35 inches) and short shuttle (4.25). He’s only 6-0 and 199lbs and he’s not the kind of rangy free safety that’ll have teams salivating.

Yet he has 12 interceptions in his first two years at Syracuse and that can’t be overlooked. Some players just have a nose for the football. He’s also forced a couple of intelligent fumbles — including chasing down a ball-carrier and punching it out from behind. He’s instinctive, reads the play well and breaks on the ball with sharpness.

Cisco will need to work in a tandem and if you put him alongside someone who’s perhaps just a little bit quicker in covering ground, he could make an ideal partner. There aren’t many safeties who look this instinctive this early in their careers. He might not be a high pick but he has the potential to make the team who takes him look very intelligent.

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There’s sometimes a misunderstanding between average salary and cap hit. I noticed this in the reaction to my alternative off-season article posted a few days ago.

In the piece I projected Jadeveon Clowney’s cap hit as $11.1m, despite him demanding much more. In the case of this projection I used Demarcus Lawrence’s contract structure. Lawrence’s cap hit in 2019 was $11.1m despite the fact he agreed a $22m a year contract with the Cowboys.

Most teams limit the year-one damage to try and quickly get to a sweet-spot that I’m going to call the red and blue zone.

The red zone is the point in a contract where a cap hit is less than the dead money you’d inherit if you cut or traded a player. Thus, it will cost you money to part ways.

The blue zone is where the dead hit is lower than the cap hit, to the point where you can get out of the contract and actually save money.

The red and blue zones always follow each other and actually determine the true length of a contract. What might look like a four-year deal might actually only be one, two or three years — if there’s an out for the team quickly.

For example, Frank Clark signed a massive extension with the Chiefs a year ago worth an average salary of $20.8m. His cap hit in 2019 however was just $6.5m.

As Clark’s cap hit grows, the Chiefs reach the point where they can realistically move on from him if they wish:

2019
Cap hit: $6.5m
Dead money: $44m

2020
Cap hit: $19.3m
Dead money: $56.3m

2021
Cap hit: $25.8m
Dead money: $37.8m

2022
Cap hit: $26.3m
Dead money: $12.9m

2023
Cap hit: $27.8m
Dead money: $6.4m

As you can see from the contract structure, the Chiefs are really only tied to Clark until the end of the 2021 season. They can then cut him and create over $13m in cap space if they desire. What was announced as a five-year contract is really only a three or four-year deal.

People often say the Chiefs can afford a massive contract like this because Mahomes is on a rookie contract. Breaking down a deal like this exposes the reality. The meat of Clark’s contract — when he reaches the red zone and can’t be cut — will coincide with Mahomes signing his own record-breaking extension.

The Chiefs are trying to surround Mahomes with talent on both sides of the ball. The result was a Super Bowl Championship last season and they’ll likely be favourites to win it again in 2020.

It’s still surprising that the Seahawks haven’t been as pro-active to try and put themselves in greater contention. Russell Wilson, after his call for superstars, must look at his AFC counterpart with envy.

As of today Seattle has barely any long term commitments beyond Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner. Even Tyler Lockett’s contract ends after 2021 and he’s reasonably paid at $10.25m a year. The Seahawks only have five players with a cap hit of $5m or more in 2021:

Russell Wilson — $32m
Bobby Wagner — $17.2m
Jarran Reed — $13.5m
Duane Brown — $13m
Tyler Lockett — $11.5m

Furthermore, Reed has no dead money tied to his deal next year. They can cut him and save $13.5m if they wish. Brown’s dead hit is only $2m. So even with their highest paid players, they have flexibility.

There’s a lot of speculation that the cap will reduce next year due to the economic impact of coronavirus. Even so, the Seahawks have an estimated $63.9m available at the moment — seventh most in the league. In 2022 they’re estimated to have $189.8m available.

These numbers will reduce if they sign Shaquill Griffin and Chris Carson to new contracts. Arguably neither warrants an extension before the season. Griffin has three career interceptions and two came in one game against Mitchell Trubisky. Carson has had injury and fumbling issues.

Regardless, they easily could’ve structured and carried some long term outside-free agent contracts into their database to create a smaller 2020 hit while surviving some ‘red zone’ moments in 2021 or 2022 — before having the freedom to get out of certain contracts if needs be.

Let’s look at some examples. Remember, they spent nearly $60m in free agency this year.

Jack Conklin signed with the Browns for $14m a year. Yet his cap hit in 2020 is just $8m. That’s only $2m more than the cap hit of Bruce Irvin and it’s $2m cheaper than K.J. Wright’s cap hit. He reaches his red zone next year when his cap hit is $13m and the dead money is $22m. Yet by 2022 the Browns can realistically get out of the contract because his cap hit is $15m and the dead money is $9m. This is basically a two-season commitment at a fairly modest price.

If the Seahawks had wanted to commit to Conklin, who is only 25, they could’ve easily carried him for the next two years and had more than enough remaining to invest in their defensive line.

Dante Fowler signed in Atlanta for $15m a year which sounds hefty. Yet his 2020 cap hit is just $6.6m — or $600,000 more than Bruce Irvin’s. Next year he takes up a much bigger $18.6m. However, his red zone isn’t really that bad. The Falcons did a good job structuring this contract and limiting the damage. They can save $3m by cutting him in a year. At the end of the 2021 season they can cut him and create $15m in cap space. Or they can extend his contract.

This is basically a two-year commitment to Fowler. Again, the Seahawks could’ve easily taken on a $6.6m cap hit this year and handled the $18.6m hit in 2021. He had 11.5 sacks last season, 35 pressures and 19 hurries — among the league leaders in all three categories.

Robert Quinn had the same number of sacks and pressures. Like Fowler, he’s basically operating under a two-year arrangement in Chicago. A few people were surprised by his $14m a year salary with the Bears. Yet his cap hit in 2020 is just $6.1m. He reaches his red zone next year — when his cap hit ($14.7m) is far smaller than the dead money ($23.9m). After that? They can cut him and save $7m.

As noted, when I talked about Clowney I used Demarcus Lawrence’s contract as a framework. Dallas gave Lawrence a deal worth $21m a year.

Plenty of people have expressed concern about Clowney following his decision not to sign with any team during free agency. Very few of these concerns were raised prior to the market opening of course — when media members rushed to project he would earn as much, if not more, than Lawrence and Clark.

He’s perceived to be an injury risk. Yet a deal similar to Lawrence’s would’ve only committed the Seahawks to two or three seasons, when they clearly have the cap space to carry the player who was their best performer on the D-line in 2019.

If they wanted to limit the year-one cap hit they could’ve paid Clowney as little as $11.1m this season, followed by two red zone seasons where he’d take up $22m and carry $53.9m (2021) and $32m (2022) in dead money. After that they’d have an out by the end of the 2022 season, when they could save $14m by cutting him.

Alternatively they could’ve accelerated the hit to essentially make it a glorified two-year contract. They could’ve committed $22m to Clowney in 2020 and 2021 and had that same out by the end of the second season.

$22m might seem like a lot to commit and given the cold nature of his market, it might’ve been possible to compromise and get him to accept $20m or even $18m. However, with so much money to spend this year — it also would’ve been easily manageable within the cap and it would’ve guaranteed the best defensive lineman stayed in Seattle, with a further $40m still to spend elsewhere (and the freedom to create more if they were willing to cut players early like K.J. Wright).

Or they could’ve just targeted Quinn and/or Fowler. There were alternatives, although as noted in previous articles — I think the Seahawks were committed to Clowney and were caught off guard when he didn’t accept their best offer. If they were so focused on Clowney and Jarran Reed early in free agency, it’s possible they never even seriously talked to or considered players like Conklin, Fowler, Quinn or Calais Campbell (who was traded to Baltimore).

The purpose of articles like this is to highlight the relative advantage the Seahawks had in terms of resources this off-season and allow you to make your mind up whether they correctly used them. They don’t have another opportunity to invest $60m in the roster this year. Any further moves they make will have to take into account they basically have about $5m left to spend. In order to create further room they’ll have to be aggressive and ruthless — hacking away at the depth they seemingly strived for a few weeks ago or forcing out respected veterans and giving them very little opportunity to latch on elsewhere.

It’s certainly possible they might be one defensive tackle signing away from essentially being done — with the hopes of a defensive resurgence falling at the feet of players like Benson Mayowa. Again, it’ll be up to you to determine whether they’ve made the most of their resources this off-season.

I will continue to try and shed light on this. It’s important for fans to see the full picture, not just the one that paints the team in the best picture.

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What could’ve been? If I’m going to ask questions and critique Seattle’s off-season, it’s only fair I lay out an alternative.

I’m going to start from the position of no additions. Let’s include the Justin Britt and D.J. Fluker money and run with the amount they’ve spent so far on re-signing and adding players — just over $58m.

Trade for Calais Campbell

The Seahawks have talked about adding a Campbell type for years yet when he was actually available, albeit at age 33, he ended up going to Baltimore for a pittance (a single fifth round pick).

It’s possible Jacksonville worked with Campbell to move him to the team of his choice. If that’s the case, it might’ve been a non-starter. It’s equally possible he had little interest joining a NFC West rival to the Cardinals after nine successful seasons in Arizona.

(Edit — Campbell has already revealed the Jaguars did not move him to the team of his choice and there were multiple interested parties)

Yet with two fourth round picks, the Seahawks had the capital to outbid Baltimore. Campbell’s cap hit in 2020 is only $10m this year and $15m next year. Or to put it another way, he costs about the same as Benson Mayowa, Jacob Hollister and Cedric Ogbuehi combined.

Pairing Campbell with Jarran Reed would’ve created a formidable interior presence. He had 33 pressures last season on a bad Jacksonville team to go with 6.5 sacks, 10 hurries and 16 quarterback knockdowns.

The Seahawks have badly needed a player like this for years.

His addition would’ve solved a huge need before the new league year had even started. And if you think his age is a problem — just remember they’re paying Greg Olsen, who turned 35 this year, $7m.

Just get it done with Jadeveon Clowney

It’s easy to forget but in the build-up to free agency all the talk was about Seattle being unable to afford Clowney’s inevitable +$22m a year contract. Everyone in the media was saying it was increasingly unlikely he’d be back in Seattle because he was going to get paid by another team.

Had you said to a lot of fans you could get him for $20m a year — they would’ve accepted that without hesitation.

It’s pretty clear that Clowney overestimated his market and that’s played a big part in the stalemate that has followed. The fact nobody stepped up to sign him has also led people to start questioning why. Is he an injury worry? Is he going to mail it in? Is he even that good?

A quick reminder — this is a player who played through a sports hernia weeks before he reached the open market. His pass rush win percentage (25%) was fifth best in the league in 2019 and only 1% less than Myles Garrett’s. It was equal to Joey Bosa’s.

He had twice as many pressures as Benson Mayowa.

He also did all of this with virtually no help in 2019. Clowney was a one-man show on Seattle’s D-line. He faced double teams more often than any other defensive lineman in the league.

Pete Carroll emphasised on multiple occasions how vital it was the Seahawks re-sign Clowney:

If you think $30m sounds like a lot for Clowney and Campbell, remember they’re using $25m of their cap space on Wagner and Wright despite using a first round pick on a linebacker.

Find the compromise — even if that’s $20m or $21m. If you also bring back Jarran Reed for his $9.35m cap hit, you’ve got three defensive linemen to build around. Yes it’s expensive — but you can structure the year-one cap hit for Clowney to work into your budget. DeMarcus Lawrence’s cap hit last season was $11.1m after signing his big extension. The Cowboys have an ‘out’ as early as 2022.

Even those who are fearful of paying Clowney a big salary have to acknowledge being committed to only two expensive seasons is hardly a massive issue.

By adding Clowney, Campbell and Reed you’d be making a major commitment to fix your D-line. That was the key to the whole off-season.

Even if you took on a full $20m cap hit for Clowney in 2020 then added Campbell and Reed — you’d still have $20m of the near $60m to spend with a clear ability to add more.

Still don’t want Clowney? That’s fine. Dante Fowler’s 2020 cap hit is $6.6m in Atlanta. It’s $18.6m in 2021. He’s easily cuttable in 2022. Robert Quinn’s 2020 cap hit is $6.1m in Chicago and $14.7m in 2021. He’s easily cuttable in 2022.

The Seahawks had multiple cost-effective options and the available cap space to do a lot more than they did to improve their pass rush.

Fill out the roster

The Seahawks have been in this position before — having about $20-30m to spend and needing to fill out their roster. The fact is they could easily fit in Phillip Dorsett, Chance Warmack and Geno Smith. That’s less than $3m for the trio.

You could trade for Quinton Dunbar at a cost of $3.4m. You’d still have about $24m to play with if you limit Clowney’s year-one hit to $11.1m.

Let’s say they sign B.J. Finney and Brandon Shell. They cost $7m combined. You have $17m left and you’ve now brought in the offensive linemen John Schneider prioritised at the start of free agency.

With the remaining money you could sign Greg Olsen or Bruce Irvin. You could sign Benson Mayowa and Jacob Hollister.

You choose how they spend $17m…

Greg Olsen $6.9m
Bruce Irvin $5.9m
Carlos Hyde $4m
Jacob Hollister $3.259m
Benson Mayowa $3.018m
Mike Iupati $2.5m
Cedric Obuehi $2.237m
Joey Hunt $2.1m
Branden Jackson $2.1m
David Moore $2.1m
Neiko Thorpe $887,500
Luke Willson $887,500

You could even see if Everson Griffen is willing to bookend Clowney. Either way, by spending big on Clowney and Campbell you clearly haven’t limited your ability to add depth or fill talent at other positions.

Greater flexibility in the draft

In this scenario the Seahawks have bolstered their defense with Campbell, Clowney, Reed and Dunbar. That takes some of the pressure off needing to go defense early and often.

If they still wanted to spend their first two picks on Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor, it wouldn’t be an issue at all. Keep building that defense. How optimistic would you feel about the defense taking a step forward in 2020 if the front seven was as follows:

DL — Clowney, Reed, Campbell, Taylor
LB — Wagner, Brooks, Wright/Barton/Irvin

Plus if you’re determined to draft Brooks or another linebacker in round one — cut K.J. Wright early in the process and add another $7.5m to the available cap. That’s even more money that could go towards Olsen, Irvin or Hyde or the various depth players Seattle claimed.

They wouldn’t be obliged to draft for defense, however. If they wanted to add to the skill positions in a strong range for receivers and running backs or invest in someone like Isaiah Wilson at offensive tackle, that would’ve been a stronger alternative after spending money on the defense.

By addressing the defense on the open market, you’re keeping so many more options open. That in itself can create more cap room. If you draft an offensive tackle with your first pick, you don’t need Brandon Shell and Cedric Ogbuehi. If you take a running back early, you don’t need Carlos Hyde.

What is strange is they used their first round pick on a position where they were already investing $25m on two players — but didn’t create any room as a consequence.

Reality vs alternative

You decide which is better. The numbers listed are 2020 cap hits.

What actually happened…

Jarran Reed $9.35m
Greg Olsen $6.9m
Bruce Irvin $5.9m
Carlos Hyde $4m
B.J. Finney $3.5m
Brandon Shell $3.475m
Quinton Dunbar $3.421m
Jacob Hollister $3.259m
Benson Mayowa $3.018m
Mike Iupati $2.5m
Cedric Obuehi $2.237m
Joey Hunt $2.1m
Branden Jackson $2.1m
David Moore $2.1m
Geno Smith $887,500
Neiko Thorpe $887,500
Luke Willson $887,500
Phillip Dorsett $887,500
Chance Warmack $887,500

Total spent: $58.25m

What I’ve proposed in this article…

Jadeveon Clowney $11.1m
Calais Campbell $10m
Jarran Reed $9.35m
Greg Olsen $6.9m
B.J. Finney $3.5m
Brandon Shell $3.475m
Quinton Dunbar $3.421m
Benson Mayowa $3.018m
Cedric Obuehi $2.237m
Joey Hunt $2.1m
Geno Smith $887,500
Phillip Dorsett $887,500
Chance Warmack $887,500

Total spent: $57.7m

In my proposal, you haven’t signed the following players:

Bruce Irvin $5.9m
Carlos Hyde $4m
Jacob Hollister $3.259m
Mike Iupati $2.5m
Branden Jackson $2.1m
David Moore $2.1m
Neiko Thorpe $887,500
Luke Willson $887,500

You’d have the draft to fill some of your remaining needs too.

Some of the unsigned players could still be brought in by creating $7.5m in cap space by cutting K.J. Wright. They also have some cap space still available in 2020 but not much. So it’s not improbable they could keep several of the names above.

They could’ve also negotiated harder with some of these players to drive down their cost. Bruce Irvin’s salary, as mentioned a few times now, is 32% higher than it was in Carolina last year and it’s not obvious why.

Even if you swap Clowney for Fowler or Quinn — or even if you combine two of those players or throw Everson Griffen into the mix — Seattle could’ve easily done more to fix its pass rush, setting up the rest of free agency and the draft. Instead, they’ve spent nearly $60m and it’s not clear how much they’ve improved — if at all. They still have serious holes to fill at defensive tackle and they can’t rely on rookies, Mayowa, Irvin, Green and Collier to provide a consistent pass rush.

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Carlos Hyde is a better option than Devonta Freeman.

They’re similarly aged. Hyde had a 1,070 yard season in Houston last year at 4.4 YPC — scoring six touchdowns. In comparison, Freeman had 656 yards at 3.6 YPC and scored only two touchdowns.

He was also cut at the cost of a $6m dead cap hit so the Falcons could roll the dice on Todd Gurley instead.

If you’re going to spend money on a veteran running back, Hyde feels like the superior option. Yet as we know — Seattle went after Freeman first. All’s well that ends well I suppose.

However — he’s going to cost up to $4m in 2020 which begs the question — why?

‘Why?’ is the word to define Seattle’s off-season. There are so many questions. This is merely the latest.

It’s the 22nd of May. Free agency is long gone by now. Very little is going on aside from the odd low-level move.

Hyde clearly didn’t have much of a market at all. Was there any competition for his signature? There’s been no talk, no reported interest. It’s now emerged he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in February.

So why is he receiving a contract worth more than the veteran minimum?

They’ve already signed Phillip Dorsett and Chance Warmack to the veteran minimum. Neiko Thorpe, Geno Smith and Luke Willson also returned for the same salary. Maybe they should’ve asked for a bit more?

If Hyde was taking the position of refusing to sign for anything less than a contract that can reach $4m — don’t you just move on?

I like Hyde. I’ve always liked him — dating back to when he was a second round pick in 2014. He’s a decent addition to a team that badly needed an extra running back.

Yet how vital is this signing that you’re unwilling to wait it out, or wait Freeman out, in the same way you’ve waited out Jadeveon Clowney or Everson Griffen or the defensive tackles?

Which other team was bumping the price up?

What leverage did Hyde have for a deal worth up to $4m? It’s as confusing as Bruce Irvin’s 32% salary increase, bumping Cedric Ogbuehi’s pay from $895,000 to $2.237m based on 155 snaps in Jacksonville, the decision to spend $3.259m on Jacob Hollister despite investing $7m in Greg Olsen and then drafting two tight ends and paying $25m for two linebackers — only to use your first round pick on the position.

If Hyde reaches the $4m peak, they’ll have spent $58.25m on these players this off-season:

Jarran Reed $9.35m
Greg Olsen $6.9m
Bruce Irvin $5.9m
Carlos Hyde $4m
B.J. Finney $3.5m
Brandon Shell $3.475m
Quinton Dunbar $3.421m
Jacob Hollister $3.259m
Benson Mayowa $3.018m
Mike Iupati $2.5m
Cedric Obuehi $2.237m
Joey Hunt $2.1m
Branden Jackson $2.1m
David Moore $2.1m
Geno Smith $887,500
Neiko Thorpe $887,500
Luke Willson $887,500
Phillip Dorsett $887,500
Chance Warmack $887,500

At the same time, they’ve shied away from investing properly in the pass rush. They haven’t even replaced Al Woods yet, despite loading up at various other positions.

The defensive line sticks out like a very sore thumb. The Seahawks came into the off-season with major problems up front and they’re now relying on Benson Mayowa, Bruce Irvin and rookies to solve the problem — while losing their one effective linemen in the process.

They’ve frittered money and resources away. There are questions all over the roster — from the pass rush to the O-line to the secondary to the health of the running backs. They’re well stocked at linebacker and so they should be for the incredible price they’re paying at the position — but will those linebackers be able to perform if the D-line can’t keep them clean?

The sheer fact that in late May they still have so many areas to address is itself a point that needs to be raised. How many of the other contending teams are left needing to work overtime into the summer to fill this many holes? The Seahawks might’ve filled two needs this week (QB, RB) but they’re still lacking in other areas.

A year ago if it wasn’t for the generosity of the Houston Texans, they would’ve started the season with Ziggy Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Cassius Marsh and Jacob Martin as their primary pass rushing threat. You’re not going to receive a beneficial trade offer every year to bail you out right before the season starts.

This was an off-season that started with Russell Wilson calling for superstars and Pete Carroll and John Schneider stressing the need to fix the pass rush.

It’s hard to see how that turned into the moves that followed.

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Here’s some more photos of DK Metcalf, Richard Sherman, Josh Gordon and Bobby Wagner all training together pic.twitter.com/4ZnkPA8h6b

— 𝙑𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙚 🐢🇲🇽 (@vountee) May 21, 2020

Josh Gordon is working out in Seattle and it’s got people talking about a potential return to the Seahawks.

For most of the off-season Gordon has been posting on social media about rejoining the team. Even today, he posted a picture of a car decorated in a Seahawks logo. He wants to come back and the chances are the team want him back too.

And why not?

The Seahawks are currently carrying 18 offensive linemen on the roster in the name of competition. There’s room for another receiver.

David Moore and Jacob Hollister are accounting for $5.4m of your cap space. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that Gordon could be superior to both for the mere price of a veteran minimum contract?

And are you really losing all that much to find out?

If we assume the Seahawks carry five or six receivers in 2020, you’ve got two locks (Lockett & Metcalf) and three others who will be virtually unchallenged as things stand (Dorsett, Moore & Ursua). Freddie Swain wouldn’t really be competing to contribute. He needs to show he warrants stashing in the way Ursua was a year ago.

Throwing Gordon into the mix pushes the likes of Dorsett, Moore and Ursua in a way they need to be challenged.

If he was going to cost a few million, it’d be too risky. Especially given his career to date with numerous suspensions.

On a veteran minimum, non-guaranteed salary though? To add to your camp competition? To find out if he’s better than the others?

It’s a complete no-brainer.

The cost is virtually non-existent. The possibility of getting a healthy, incorporated Josh Gordon far outweighs any ‘risk’. What’s the worst case scenario? He shows out in camp and then doesn’t work out in the season — so you lose David Moore or John Ursua and $800,000? It’s hardly a crushing scenario.

The Seahawks very clearly managed Gordon’s role in 2019. They were giving him time to work into the offense — asking him to run basic routes that are a feature in any scheme. He still found a way to convert several crucial third downs (especially in the 49ers road game) and produced one of the catches of the season in Carolina.

Gordon will reportedly be applying for re-instatement soon and while this quite likely is his last opportunity to make it work in the NFL — there’s no reason not to make this move. The chances are, as soon as he’s available, the Seahawks will bring him back.

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According to Adam Caplan and then Mike Silver, the Seahawks have been negotiating with two free agent running backs — Devonta Freeman and Carlos Hyde.

Silver has reported Seattle’s offer to Freeman is worth up to $4m.

He also had a fairly interesting review of where the Seahawks are at with the position:

5) Possible addition of Devonta Freeman or Carlos Hyde via free agency; 6) Possible re-signing of free agent C.J. Prosise; 7) As with last season, Marshawn Lynch would head the list of emergency in-season replacements if injuries strike, and if he wants to play.

— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) May 20, 2020

It really speaks to how this is quite an underrated problem.

Just park your own opinions on the value of the running back position for a second and consider how reliant the Seahawks are on a productive running game.

The offense couldn’t function properly when Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny were injured at the end of the season. And while Russell Wilson mercifully rallied against San Francisco and Green Bay — the comeback attempts followed a whole bunch of struggle and strife as both opponents flooded coverage, won with a four man pass rush and ultimately made life harder for Wilson than it needed to be.

The overly simplistic reaction was the brainless ‘let Russ cook’ retort on social media. In reality, even the most prolific pass-centric offense has a reasonable semblance of balance to keep a defense honest. Kansas City, after all, just spent their top pick on a running back. Look how the Rams’ offense struggled as soon as Todd Gurley became less effective. The 49ers and Saints run the ball very well.

Even if the Seahawks aimed to throw 100% of the time — they would face the same kind of issues as experienced in the early stages of the Green Bay and San Francisco games if they trot out Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch at running back.

The fact that Rashaad Penny is going to start the year on the PUP list puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Carson to stay healthy — something he hasn’t managed to do in his NFL or college career. It’s a nice thought to think Deejay Dallas might be able to fill a void — but he looks very much a Robert Turbin-esque compliment rather than someone who leads your running attack.

So here we are — with the Seahawks trying to negotiate a contract with two veterans. Hyde in fairness enjoyed a reasonable 1,070 yard season in Houston last year at 4.4 YPC — scoring six touchdowns. Freeman was far less successful. He had 656 yards at 3.6 YPC and only two touchdowns in 14 games.

He already looks well beyond his best — so much so that Atlanta preferred to roll the dice on Gurley and take a $6m dead cap hit for Freeman.

A couple of weeks ago I questioned whether Seattle had used the $53.37m they’ve spent on veterans this year wisely. Paying another $4m for Freeman would be another questionable decision — right up there with giving Bruce Irvin a 32% pay increase, bumping Cedric Ogbuehi’s pay from $895,000 to $2.237m, spending $3.259m on Jacob Hollister despite investing $7m in Greg Olsen then drafting two tight ends, using your first round pick on a position where you’re already committing $25m to two players or failing to invest serious resources into your biggest need (D-line) while collecting 18 offensive linemen.

More importantly though, $4m is a significant chunk of cash on a player who looks spent. Would he seriously contribute much at all — other than providing name recognition? If Carson got hurt, is Devonta Freeman going to come to the rescue?

And while many folks like to ridicule the idea of spending a high pick on a running back — it’s worth noting the four-year value teams are getting by tapping into a talented group in the 2020 draft class.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s cap hit this year will likely be around $1.9m. In the final year of his rookie deal his cap hit will be about $3.2m — less than the Seahawks are reportedly willing to commit to Freeman.

D’Andre Swift, the #35 pick, is projected to have a cap hit in 2020 of about $1.4m. In the fourth and final year of his contract, he will cost about $2.4m.

Jonathan Taylor, the #41 pick by Indianapolis, should have a $1.3m cap hit this year. He’ll likely never have a cap hit higher than $2.2m over the course of his rookie deal.

Cam Akers, the #52 pick by the Rams, will have a cap hit of $1m in 2020 and a year-four cap hit of about $1.8m.

J.K. Dobbins, the #55 pick by Baltimore, will have a cap hit this year between $900,000 and $1m. His first contract will likely never cost more than $1.6m.

A.J. Dillon the #62 pick by Green Bay is slated to earn slightly more than the $841,794 Andy Isabella received for the same draft placing a year ago.

It’s indisputable that it’s unwise to invest millions in running backs. The results speak for themselves. The Packers likely picked Dillon to avoid spending big on Aaron Jones. There are very few cases — such as Marshawn Lynch in his peak — where you can justify it.

Yet the extreme value presented with the players above — especially compared to the amount you have to spend for someone like Devonta Freeman — is telling. This was a seriously underrated collection of running backs.

The talent won’t be there ever year. When it is, however, there’s value to be had with the way the running back position is being downgraded on draft boards.

Had the Seahawks’ selected Edwards-Helaire, Swift or Taylor with their top pick — the internet would’ve exploded. Yet going into this season they would’ve had proper, cheap insurance against a Carson injury and a replacement solution when he becomes a free agent in 2021 (if he commands a big salary, which I doubt to be honest).

Not to mention, Edwards-Helaire and Taylor in particular are immensely talented. The two coaches and GM’s who drafted them certainly know a fair bit about picking for value and talent on offense. I thought both players were among the twenty best players in the 2020 draft.

The Seahawks instead picked defense with their first two picks. Which is understandable given their raging need to fix the defense. Yet their inability to properly address it in free agency — despite spending so much money — virtually forced them to avoid the skill position options in the draft. Remember — this wasn’t just a good group of running backs. It was an excellent receiver class too.

It felt obvious that the plan needed to be a defensive splash in free agency then tap into the strength of the draft early. The Colts played a blinder there — using their top pick in the veteran market to acquire a fantastic defensive linemen before using two picks in round two to get a receiver and a running back. Textbook.

Seattle went into the draft with a need at running back (thus the Deejay Dallas pick in round four) but an even greater need across the defense.

If Jordyn Brooks goes on to emulate K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner and enjoy 8-10 years at the heart of Seattle’s defense — it’ll be a moot point. If he spends most of his rookie season learning the ropes behind two players costing $25m in 2020 — while Seattle can’t make life easier for Wilson due to a bad situation at running back — that will only serve to highlight, again, what a confusing off-season this has been at a time the Seahawks really needed a focused and well-executed plan to take the next step.

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This week I was invited onto the Pedestrian Podcast to discuss Seattle’s off-season. Check it out below and post your own thoughts in the comments section…

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Today I went back and had a look at what was being said in the build up to free agency by Pete Carroll and John Schneider. On reflection, it’s even more surprising that they haven’t done more to upgrade the pass rush — and it’s also pretty clear that the entire off-season has been impacted by the Jadeveon Clowney stalemate…

There were so many clear references to fixing the pass rush being a priority. Which is understandable — you don’t need me to reel off the stats again.

Yet there aren’t any minced words on Clowney either. They wanted him. I suspect they had a great deal of confidence in their position. They likely knew they had the best offer and expected, after a period of reflection, that he would simply take it. I think his agent Bud Cook probably also felt that would happen.

Clowney didn’t take it. He still hasn’t taken whatever their best offer is. He remains a free agent. And both parties are in limbo.

It could’ve been so different. Imagine if Clowney signs in that first week on a deal that was cheaper than anyone expected pre-free agency. Instead of trying to wait him out you’re likely negotiating to see if you can bring in Everson Griffen as a book-end. Suddenly players like Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa look like reasonable complimentary pieces rather than a solution.

Yet there’s little point blaming Clowney as we’ve been over dozens of times. It’s his right to say no to a deal he doesn’t like and if he wishes, risk losing millions to do it on his terms. He’s already made his fortune. Equally the Seahawks can’t really be blamed for refusing to be the only team willing to meet his demands.

The argument against their approach is their unwillingness to move on and make a significant alternative signing (or signings). They’ve embraced the stalemate. Again though, that’s perhaps understandable because Clowney is by far the most dynamic option available on the market. He was at the start of free agency too.

But by not moving on they’ve put all their eggs in one Jadeveon Clowney shaped basket. They run the risk of a bad pass rush being even worse next season if he doesn’t eventually agree to terms.

Thus, here we are. It won’t be a massively successful off-season for the defense even if Clowney returns. It’ll be what they had in 2019 but with a first rounder replacing Mychal Kendricks, better depth at defensive end (albeit in the form of journeymen and rookies) and, depending on the outcome of Quinton Dunbar’s legal situation, one new cornerback (who missed 14 games in 2018 and 2019).

Without Clowney — it’s ugly.

But how bad is it truly?

I went through each team and made a note of any key defensive linemen or pass rushers, recent notable additions or high draft picks on each roster.

Arizona
They have a star in Chandler Jones but their depth and support is otherwise unremarkable. They’ve also not added any significant young pass rushers, unless you want to classify Isaiah Simmons. Jones is a game-wrecker though and a player who has to be game-planned for every week. Jonathan Phillips was a significant addition for the interior.

Atlanta
The Falcons spent money on Dante Fowler this off-season to go with their previous investment in retaining Grady Jarrett. They also used a second round pick on Marlon Davidson and traded for former first-round bust Charles Harris.

Baltimore
The Baltimore defense is set up to be creative and create pressure from different areas. Even so, they can boast a future Hall of Fame player in Calais Campbell and they used the franchise tag on Matt Judon. They also signed Derrick Wolfe and used a second round pick on Justin Madubuike.

Buffalo
The Bills used a top-10 pick on Ed Oliver a year ago, signed Miles Addison in free agency and drafted A.J. Epenesa in round two. They also retain Jerry Hughes and invested in two other former Panthers in Star Loutlelei and Vernon Butler.

Carolina
The Panthers have pumped resources into their D-line — using first round picks on Derrick Brown and Brian Burns, a second round pick on Yetur Gross-Matos and they still have Kawann Short.

Chicago
The Bears have one of the best pass rushing units in the league with Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and now Robert Quinn.

Cincinnati
The Bengals have drafted younger linemen over the years but their D-line is still anchored by the ever-reliable Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap.

Cleveland
The Browns have spent money on Sheldon Richardson and added Olivier Vernon but their pass rush star is clearly former #1 overall pick Myles Garrett.

Dallas
The Cowboys gave Demarcus Lawrence a huge contract and have now added Gerald McCoy to the interior. They’ve also added Dontari Poe and drafted Neville Gallimore. They’re taking on Aldon Smith as a reclamation project in 2020.

Denver
The Broncos have Von Miller and former top-five pick Bradley Chubb. They also added Jurrell Casey from the Titans this off-season.

Detroit
They spent big money on Trey Flowers — who was more scheme fit than spectacular starter. They don’t have a lot else and drafted Julian Okwara in round three this year.

Green Bay
The Packers have made major moves to improve up front. Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith were signed in free agency a year ago — then they used the #12 pick on Rashan Gary. They also retain Kenny Clark at defensive tackle.

Houston
The Texans have long relied on JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus. They drafted Ross Blacklock in the second round this year.

Indianapolis
The Colts used the #13 pick on DeForest Buckner but otherwise have a collection of young unproven players and Justin Houston.

Jacksonville
They’ve used first round picks on Josh Allen, Taven Bryan and K’Lavon Chaisson in recent years. They also, for now at least, still have Yannick Ngakoue.

Kansas City
Chris Jones and Frank Clark were vital pieces in the Super Bowl success.

LA Chargers
Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram provide a dynamic duo. They used a first round pick on Jerry Tillery a year ago and signed Linval Joseph to anchor the interior in free agency.

LA Rams
The Rams have lost most of the support class but will always threaten with the NFL’s best defensive player (Aaron Donald). Getting Michael Brockers back was a plus but they don’t have a dynamic EDGE. Leonard Floyd hasn’t shown enough as a pass rusher in the NFL.

Las Vegas
They used the #4 pick on Clelin Ferrell a year ago and found some production from Maxx Crosby. Maurice Hurst has been worth taking a chance on.

Miami
The Dolphins spent high picks on Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis and signed Shaq Lawson to be their ‘Trey Flowers’. They also paid big money for Kyle Van Noy.

Minnesota
The Vikings have Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr but the group just looked better when they also had Linval Joseph and Everson Griffen. They’re a bit light.

New England
They’ve added a bunch of their types to make up for losing the likes of Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy. This year they drafted Josh Uche. Last year it was Chase Winovich. They spent money on Lawrence Guy in free agency and spent day two picks on Derek Rivers and Anfernee Jennings. They have a lot of talent in the secondary.

New Orleans
Cam Jordan, Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport are all first round investments.

New York Giants
Strangely they’ve gone all quiet and more or less ignored the EDGE positions this off-season. They spent a first round pick on Dexter Lawrence last year and traded a third for Leonard Williams. They’ve used the new fangled tag to try and retain Markus Golden.

New York Jets
They have the 2019 #3 overall pick Quinnen Williams… and not a lot else. They drafted Jabari Zuniga in the third round.

Philadelphia
This off-season the Eagles added Javon Hargrave to Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett.

Pittsburgh
They have a good group consisting of TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, Bud Dupree and Stephon Tuitt.

Seattle
Jarran Reed is the best D-liner on the roster. They drafted Darrell Taylor to go with a collection of underachieving younger players and journeymen.

San Francisco
Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Solomon Thomas and Dee Ford. Depth and talent.

Tampa Bay
Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, JPP and Shaquil Barrett make up Tampa Bay’s underrated D-line.

Tennessee
They’ve used high picks on Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons but overpaid Vic Beasley this off-season.

Washington
They’re trying to emulate the Niners with Ryan Kerrigan, Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne.

At the moment it’s hard to argue against the Seahawks being in the bottom five in terms of talent on paper. Their depth isn’t as bad as some other teams. Yet they clearly lack the star power to compliment the players they do have.

They need an interior rusher of quality and a top defensive end. Add those two players and it elevates the entire defense. That’s been a problem for a while though — especially the interior rusher.

The big problem is Seattle’s defensive scheme relies on a four-man rush to get home. Otherwise the secondary is exposed and that was an issue last season (eg Matt Schaub throwing for 460 yards for Atlanta). Is the current defensive line capable of creating enough pressure to rush with four? Even if you add Clowney — is there enough pure talent to make this defense tick?

When they had Bennett, Avril, Clemons, Irvin, Clark et al back in the day it wasn’t a problem. Looking at the current collection of players — it’ll be an issue without some late moves between now and the 2020 season starting.

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This was always going to be a vital period for the Seahawks.

Having endured two off-seasons of re-setting — for the first time they had money to spend and draft picks to use.

This was a golden opportunity to propel the team back into serious Super Bowl contention. Yet as of May 15th, the off-season has simply created a host of question marks and confusion.

Everything starts with the struggling 2019 defense.

We’ve gone over this so many times already so I apologise for once again repeating the same stats today. Yet it’s the best way to illustrate just how bad Seattle’s defense was last year and why it needed major work:

— The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23)

— Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall

— The Seahawks produced a sack or quarterback hit on just 14.4% of opponents’ pass plays — worst in the NFL

— They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96)

— Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%)

— Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest

— They had 52 TFL’s — fourth fewest

— They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL

— Their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%)

— They gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall

— They had 131 missed tackles during the regular season — fourth most.

It was difficult to make a case that the defensive issues had been addressed even before the news broke yesterday that an arrest warrant had been issued for Quinton Dunbar. It’s likely he’ll never play a down for the Seahawks. The fifth round pick they spent on him will be a waste and the only saving grace is they can cut him without taking on any dead money. They’ll save $3.4m.

People were banking on Dunbar making a difference. PFF ranking him as the #2 cornerback in the NFL last season raised expectations — even if it was creating false hope (Dunbar has actually missed 14 games due to injury in the last two years and was far from a sure thing).

With the likelihood that he won’t be part of the 2020 Seahawks after all, here’s a quick review on what’s actually changed in terms of Seattle’s starting defense:

Players Out
Jadeveon Clowney
Al Woods
Quinton Jefferson
Ziggy Ansah
Mychal Kendricks

Players In
Bruce Irvin
Benson Mayowa
Jordyn Brooks
Darrell Taylor

The secondary, without Dunbar, is identical to a year ago with no new additions of significance. They spent a first round pick to replace Mychal Kendricks (and presumably K.J. Wright for the long term). They’ve so far failed to bring back Jadeveon Clowney — instead adding Benson Mayowa, Bruce Irvin and trading up for Darrell Taylor. They’re yet to replace Al Woods.

It’s impossible to look at this collection of ins and outs and make any kind of argument that the Seahawks are better.

How are they going to improve in terms of pass rush, pressure rate and run defense?

Irvin and Mayowa are complimentary pieces. As noted last week, they were well supported in Carolina and Oakland last season:

Irvin played on a line in Carolina that had multiple, high-quality contributors. Mario Addison and Brian Burns delivered 17 sacks between them. Vernon Butler, Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe also combined for 15 more sacks rushing the interior.

In Oakland, Mayowa’s production fit in alongside Maxx Crosby, Clelin Ferrell and Maurice Hurst collectively providing 18 sacks.

The Seahawks also need to find a way to replace Clowney’s impact — which was significant despite his modest sack numbers. His pass rush win percentage (25%) was fifth highest in the NFL and only 1% lower than Myles Garrett in 2019 — despite facing constant double teams. He also had 30 pressures — twice as many as Mayowa in Oakland.

This has been a strange off-season overall. It’s difficult to work out how they’re going to improve the concerning defensive numbers short of simply hoping some of the underachievers on the roster (such as Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier) elevate their performance to an unexpected new level.

Either that or they need to make some late moves. Namely Clowney. Those suggesting Logan Ryan and Dre Kirkpatrick as alternatives to Dunbar should acknowledge Seattle’s strict preferences on arm length (and neither player has the coveted +32 inch arms).

If you’re willing to be honest, the defensive line doesn’t look good enough. The biggest investment on the defense so far is a linebacker. The secondary, minus Dunbar, will be untouched.

Despite all this, they’ve spent $50m in free agency on retaining players or signing new ones. How can there be so many questions about potential improvement with such a high level of investment?

Is it not right to question why so little has been done to upgrade a defense that badly needed help? To ask why the roster is loaded with 18 offensive linemen yet so far, even Al Woods hasn’t been replaced at defensive tackle? To critique the decision to spend $11.796m on David Moore, Branden Jackson, Joey Hunt, Cedric Ogbuehi and Jacob Hollister — while enduring a painful stalemate with Clowney (yet being unwilling to simply move on and sign someone else — for example Everson Griffen).

There are so many more questions too.

Is it wise to invest $12.8m of cap space in Greg Olsen (35) and Bruce Irvin (33 this year)? Why are they paying Jacob Hollister $3.259m as a restricted free agent having already committed $6.9m to Olsen and then drafting two tight ends?

Is it a good use of funds to be spending nearly $25m of 2020 cap space on two linebackers — while also using your first round pick on the position?

Why is Irvin’s 2020 salary 32% more than the deal he signed in Carolina a year ago? What did Cedric Ogbuehi show in his 155 total snaps for the Jaguars last season to warrant a pay increase from $895,000 to $2.237m?

Do they have sufficient depth at running back, considering the offense virtually collapsed at the end of the 2019 season when Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny were injured? Given Penny is expected to start on the PUP list and Carson has a track record of injuries, can they place any faith in Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer to carry the load? And is Marshawn Lynch a realistic fallback again as anything more than a late-season energiser?

Of course there’s still time for further moves. The Seahawks didn’t acquire Clowney until right before the start of the season a year ago. Yet you can’t bank on trades of that caliber being available every year. Most teams, by now, have done their business. They keep their options open on players as they seek value. They don’t need to make major, significant additions after the draft though.

The Seahawks have a lot still to get done.

It’s also possible they’ve simply experienced a spate of bad luck. The Clowney situation was unpredictable and possibly had an impact on everything else they’ve done this off-season. Signing him back in the first 3-4 days of free agency could’ve changed the entire complexion of what they were able to do. The Dunbar incident is even more unexpected.

Even so — when you’re a team that aspires to compete for Super Bowls, playing in the toughest division in football with two rivals who’ve been in the Super Bowl in the last two seasons, you’re going to have your off-season analysed and critiqued. Any serious debate about the Seahawks has to ask the difficult questions about whether enough has been achieved so far for Seattle to take any kind of step forward in 2020.

Some brief thoughts on the Russell Wilson trade stuff

Yesterday Mike Florio brought up the prospect of the Seahawks trading Wilson in the not too distant future. It follows a conversation with Chris Simms earlier in the week where Simms noted the Seahawks and Browns talked about a possible Wilson trade involving the #1 pick in 2018.

The reaction from Seattle’s media has been staunchly defensive but I think there are two serious points to make:

1. The Seahawks almost certainly did consider trading Wilson

2. There will be an interesting situation in 2022

It’s easy to forget that a year ago, Adam Schefter spent considerable time — unprovoked — discussing the possibility of Wilson being traded prior to the 2019 draft. Jack Del Rio also mentioned that he’d heard, within the league, talk of a possible trade.

See for yourself:

It’s very easy to revise history since Wilson signed his new deal. In the build up to that agreement, there was talk of wanting $40m a year, playing on multiple franchise tags or insisting on a percentage of the cap as a salary. The Seahawks had already endured one highly fractious negotiation with Wilson’s agent Mark Rodgers in 2015. I don’t think people truly grasp how concerned they probably were about a second bout with Rodgers. It’s very, very believable that they feared the worst and wondered whether they would have to consider the unthinkable, rather than risk a Kirk Cousins-esque slow-dance to divorce.

Such a situation would’ve been a huge distraction. A black cloud hanging over the franchise. It would’ve also been very likely that Seattle would’ve eventually lost Wilson without proper compensation.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise at all that they had even a brief conversation about trading Wilson to a team owning the #1 overall pick in a 2018 draft loaded with quarterback talent. Any sensible team would have that conversation — even if it’s just to cover all bases. It’s also very real that they had similar conversations a year ago. In the end no trade was necessary because an agreement was reached. Seahawks fans should be happy that the team is mature enough to consider all eventualities.

It’s to Wilson’s credit that he didn’t force Seattle’s hand or insist on being a trailblazer for NFL contracts. He accepted what he was due — to be the highest paid player in the league for a while. All’s well that ends well.

Yet had he insisted on changing the NFL’s contract structure forever — there’s every chance he would’ve been playing somewhere else.

As for the future — Wilson is contracted for four more seasons. It seems unlikely, due to coronavirus, that the NFL economy is going to outgrow his salary in that timeframe. There’s even talk of the cap coming down in 2021. Therefore it’s unlikely there’ll be any issues until after the 2022 season.

By then, the negotiations will begin again over an extension. And once again, we’ll need to see how Wilson plays it. He’ll only be 33 when they start talking. He will feel, at that stage, like he has at least one last enormous contract in him.

Given the way negotiations have gone in the past, it’d be naive to assume the two parties will skip along to 2023 and then just merrily sign an extension.

What if the Seahawks are unable to seriously challenge for a Super Bowl between now and 2022? Wilson publicly called for the team to add superstars this off-season. He hasn’t done that before. If they can’t properly compete for a Championship and sufficiently build around him over the next three seasons, he might have a decision to make.

We’ve also just seen the biggest name quarterback in NFL history switch teams. Will it be that surprising if Tom Brady moving to Tampa Bay raised a few eyebrows among long-standing quarterbacks? And what happens if Brady wins a ring (or two) to end his career in a new city?

The no-trade clause is also a red-herring. If by 2023 Wilson wants to move on — and if another team offers him the salary and the opportunity he desires — he will waive it. It’s window dressing on the contract and merely security for both parties until the next negotiation begins.

Look — the Seahawks and Wilson are good for each other and that could easily remain the case for the rest of his career. Florio’s report was also a little bit mischievous at a time when there’s very little news to discuss (well, until DeAndre Baker and Quinton Dunbar stepped in).

Don’t just write it off as complete trash though. Even if, for the next few years at least, there’s nothing to worry about.

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The Seahawks entered the 2019 off-season facing a huge dilemma.

One way or another they had to sort out Russell Wilson’s future. Three other players were also approaching the final year of their contracts — Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed and, thanks to the franchise tag, Frank Clark.

The intention was clearly to try and keep all four. When asked about Clark at the combine, both Pete Carroll and John Schneider said they expected him in Seattle. Carroll in particular said multiple times, quite firmly, that Clark would be with the team in 2019.

It felt like they were keen to get him signed to a deal worth about $18m per year — the amount of the tag. The game-changer was Demarcus Lawrence’s contract in Dallas. A stalemate was abruptly ended when the Cowboys agreed to pay him $21m a year. Suddenly a player with production but not the quality of Khalil Mack or Aaron Donald was earning elite money. Now Clark could realistically ask for the same.

Nobody can really complain about the Seahawks deciding they were better off seeing what else was out there. $21m is a lot of money. Only four defensive linemen are paid more — Donald, Mack, Lawrence and now DeForest Buckner. Seattle had to make a call on whether Clark’s 32 sacks in three seasons, including 13 in 2018, warranted a placing among the leagues elite. Clearly they decided it wasn’t enough.

They made a trade for a late first round pick and a second round pick. Those players ended up being, ultimately, L.J. Collier and Damien Lewis.

The thought process and logic was perfectly plausible — especially when Wilson and Wagner signed their contracts. Had they signed Clark to the deal he received in Kansas City, here are the cumulative cap hits for all three players per year for the following four seasons:

2019 — $48.5m
2020 — $65.05m
2021 — $74.95m
2022 — $83.65m

On paper, that’s hard to accept. Yet there are some other things to consider.

For starters, Clark’s cap hit in 2020 is $19.3m. The Seahawks are spending $19.1m of their cap space on K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin and Jacob Hollister. You could argue they’d be better off with Clark — especially with the depth they’ve got at tight end and having just spent a first round pick on a linebacker.

The $74.95m hit is incredibly steep in 2021. However, the Seahawks are currently slated to have about $63m in available cap space at the end of this season. They could tolerate Clark’s cap hit of $25.8m. It’d also be their final year without an ‘out’ in the contract. The Chiefs can’t cut or trade Clark until 2022 due to the dead-money on the deal. Having between $30-40m to spend wouldn’t have prevented Seattle from filling out the depth on their roster. They would’ve also had two full draft classes by then (2020 & 2021).

By 2022 the Seahawks would have a lot of freedom and flexibility. If a 29-year-old Clark was no longer providing a high level of performance they could cut or trade him and save $13.4m. They could also cut or trade Wagner and save a further $17m. If they needed money, they could find it.

The other thing to consider are the extensions the Seahawks might want to do that’ll eat into future cap space. Chris Carson and Shaquill Griffin are the two big names who are out of contract at the end of the 2020 season. Neither player has shown they warrant a big extension at this stage.

Clearly this was a choice by Seattle not to go beyond their limit for Clark — which, as noted, was seemingly set at the franchise tag limit of $18m.

But how did that unwillingness to stretch to another $3m per year impact the roster reset overall?

This is the big question and one that warrants some consideration moving forward.

When the Seahawks refreshed their roster in 2018 it was an attempt to establish a new core and identify the players they would build around moving forward. The 2018 team were competitive and often exciting if somewhat flawed. They still recorded impressive home wins against Kansas City, Green Bay and Minnesota. They gave the Rams two almighty battles. They finished 10-6 but it could’ve easily been more. Two disappointing road losses to start the year put them behind the eight-ball and they shouldn’t have lost on the road in San Francisco. 11-13 wins was possible and would’ve felt more authentic than perhaps even last season.

They had their big beasts — Wilson, Wagner, Carson, Duane Brown, Tyler Lockett and two defensive linemen (Clark and Reed) who delivered 23.5 sacks. The path to future success was clear. Build around that group. It was going to be tricky in 2019 because they only had four draft picks and limited cap space.

That in part was probably another inspiration for trading Clark — to get another pick and free up some cash. Yet by dealing him the Seahawks were doing the opposite of building at the exact time they needed to be adding not subtracting.

The 2019 draft class was rich in defensive linemen. It felt like an ideal opportunity, even with only four picks, to add to what they had. That too probably gave the Seahawks false hope that they could deal Clark and handle the loss. As it happens — the rush on the position caught them out when both Rashan Gary and Brian Burns went quickly. They traded out of range for their secondary targets and seemingly settled on L.J. Collier to avoid missing out on the defensive linemen altogether.

That could end up being the defining moment of the reset, unfortunately. That’s the negative way of looking at it anyway. Since that trade, the Seahawks went from relying on Frank Clark for a pass rush to having nobody who could deliver a pass rush. The Jadeveon Clowney trade bailed them out before the 2019 season — but they were unwilling, so far, to commit to bringing him back too.

If he doesn’t return, he’ll have cost a third round pick for one season.

Instead of building and growing the unit, the Seahawks smashed a big hole into their pass rush. They’ve since been scrambling to find solutions. Ansah, Clowney — now trading up for Darrell Taylor and signing Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin. They’re trying to find answers instead of building. In 2019, the lack of pass rush was crippling. There’s a danger the same issue will prevent them from succeeding in 2020 too.

Removing Clark created a big problem — one that they’ve struggled to solve.

Again — the logic behind the trade was perfectly understandable at the time. In hindsight, especially if they don’t return to a Super Bowl in the next couple of years, we’ll wonder if their unwillingness to go from $18m to $21m a year was costly. Especially if their future answers to the problem have a similar lack of success as Ansah and Collier in 2019.

Sometimes you just have to pay the going rate for a good player.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing though. Nobody makes a decision to get it wrong. If a decision is logical — and Seattle trading Clark was — then you have to temper any criticism. You can also, however, discuss that decision and question whether it was the right move after all. As of today, it’s hard to argue the Seahawks are in a better position for dealing Clark.

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