Category: Scouting Report (Page 2 of 38)

Time for a new mock draft. This one includes trades (detailed below), a second round projection and a full Seahawks seven-round mock.

Let me know what you think in the comments section.

#1 Cleveland — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
#2 NY Giants — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
#3 NY Jets (via Ind) — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
#4 Cleveland (via Hou) — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
#5 Buffalo (via Den) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
#6 Indianapolis (via NYJ) — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
#7 Tampa Bay — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
#8 Chicago — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
#9 San Francisco — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
#10 Oakland — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
#11 Miami — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
#12 Denver (via Buf, Cin) — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
#13 Washington — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
#14 Green Bay — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
#15 Arizona — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
#16 Baltimore — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
#17 LA Chargers — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
#18 Cleveland (via Sea) — Kolton Miller (T, UCLA)
#19 Dallas — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
#20 Detroit — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
#21 Cincinnati (via Buf) — Justin Reid (S, Stanford)
#22 Denver (via Buf, KC) — Harold Landry (DE, Boston College)
#23 New England (via LA) — Jaire Alexander (CB, Louisville)
#24 Carolina — Rasheem Green (DE, USC)
#25 Tennessee — Sam Hubbard (DE, Ohio State)
#26 Atlanta — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
#27 New Orleans — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
#28 Pittsburgh — Jessie Bates III (S, Wake Forest)
#29 Jacksonville — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
#30 Minnesota — Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
#31 New York Giants (via NE) — Will Hernandez (G, UTEP)
#32 Philadelphia — Austin Corbett (G, Nevada)

#33 Seattle (via Cle) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
#34 New England (via NYG) — Mason Rudolph (QB, Oklahoma State)
#35 Cleveland — Carlton Davis (CB, Auburn)
#36 Indianapolis — Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
#37 Indianapolis — Joshua Jackson (CB, Iowa)
#38 Tampa Bay — Derrius Guice (RB, Tampa Bay)
#39 Chicago — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
#40 Denver — Sony Michel (RB, Georgia)
#41 Oakland — Hayden Hurst (TE, South Carolina)
#42 Miami — James Daniels (C, Iowa)
#43 New England (via SF) — D.J. Moore (WR, Maryland)
#44 Washington — Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia)
#45 Green Bay — Isaiah Oliver (CB, Colorado)
#46 Cincinnati — Frank Ragnow (C, Arkansas)
#47 Arizona — Mike Hughes (CB, UCF)
#48 LA Chargers — B.J. Hill (DT, NC State)
#49 Indianapolis — Ronnie Harrison (S, Alabama)
#50 Dallas — Malik Jefferson (LB, Texas)
#51 Detroit — Connor Williams (T, Texas)
#52 Baltimore — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
#53 Denver (via Buf) — Geron Christian (T, Louisville)
#54 Kansas City — Donte Jackson (CB, LSU)
#55 Carolina — Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M)
#56 Buffalo (via LAR) — Harrison Phillips (DT, Stanford)
#57 Tennessee — Rashaad Penny (RB, San Diego State)
#58 Atlanta — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
#59 San Francisco (via NO) — Royce Freeman (RB, Oregon)
#60 Pittsburgh — Andrew Brown (DT, Virginia)
#61 Jacksonville — Dallas Goedert (TE, South Dakota State)
#62 Minnesota — Josh Sweat (DE, Florida State)
#63 New England — Brian O’Neill (T, Pittsburgh)
#64 Cincinnati (via Sea, Cle, Phi) — Tyrell Crosby (T, Oregon)

Just missed: Braden Smith (G, Auburn), D.J. Chark (WR, LSU), Arden Key (DE, LSU), Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma), James Washington (WR, Oklahoma State), Mike Gesicki (TE, Penn State), Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia), Dante Pettis (WR, Washington)

Trades

Buffalo trades #12, #22, #53 & 2019 R2 to Denver for #5
Cleveland trades #33, #64 & #150 to Seattle for #18
New York Giants trade #34 & #108 to New England for #31
Cincinnati trades #77 & #112 to Seattle for #64

Today the Rams traded the #23 pick to New England for Brandin Cooks.

Seven round Seahawks mock

R2 (33) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
R3 (77) — Luke Falk (QB, Washington State)
R4 (112) — Shaquem Griffin (LB, UCF)
R4 (120) — Kameron Kelly (DB, San Diego State)
R5 (141) — Quenton Meeks (CB, Stanford)
R5 (146) — Leon Jacobs (LB, Wisconsin)
R5 (150) — Will Dissly (TE, Washington)
R5 (156) — Natrell Jamerson (S, Wisconsin)
R5 (168) — Chase Edmonds (RB, Fordham)
R7 (226) — Poona Ford (DT, Texas)
R7 (248) — Khalid Hill (FB, Michigan)

So, why a quarterback in round three?

We’re just running through scenarios here. This is one we haven’t talked about.

The Seahawks currently don’t have a backup on the roster. That’ll likely change before training camp. A veteran backup is necessary, even if they draft a rookie QB.

In the next 18 months the Seahawks will likely begin negotiating a new contract with Russell Wilson. Last time it ended up being trickier than expected. Wilson didn’t agree terms until right before training camp. I think they were surprised how long it took, how much Wilson’s agent dug in. All’s well that ends well — but they need to be prepared for round two.

The chances are Wilson will agree an extension and will continue his career in Seattle — possibly until he finishes playing. You don’t take a franchise quarterback for granted. It still makes sense for the Seahawks to cover their bases. Draft a quarterback, have them under contract for four years and buy yourself some security.

Quarterbacks generally don’t lose value. Mike Glennon is a good example. A year ago Chicago paid him a fortune to be a bridge to Mitch Trubisky. So even if your young QB isn’t a valuable trade chip, comp picks are a possibility down the line.

Is it a little rich to spend a third round pick on a quarterback during a transition?

Possibly.

However, consistent winning teams have often planned ahead at quarterback. The New England Patriots drafted Ryan Mallett and Jacoby Brissett in round three and spent a second rounder on Jimmy Garoppolo during the Brady era. Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 as the presumed heir apparent to Brett Favre. Yet in 2008 they also spent a second round pick on Brian Brohm — the year Rodgers took over from Favre. Again, they were covering their bases.

The Seahawks haven’t drafted a quarterback since taking Wilson in 2012. Now might be the time to start some forward planning.

So why Luke Falk?

The main reason is because he’s the best one available in this mock. The top five go in round one as expected and Mason Rudolph comes off the board in round two. After that there’s not a lot left.

Falk is a very different quarterback to Wilson but so was Charlie Whitehurst, Matt Flynn and Austin Davis. Ideally you’d draft a player with a similar skill set to avoid too much change if Wilson gets hurt. Unless Lamar Jackson suffers a dramatic and unexpected fall that isn’t going to be possible here.

I’ve liked Falk for some time. He’s a gutty quarterback, willing to sit in the pocket and deliver accurate throws in the face of pressure. He’s intelligent, measured and has dealt with a lot in his college career. He did have some ugly games but he also elevated Washington State into contention in the PAC-12 North.

It’s not an unfair criticism to suggest he didn’t quite take the next step in 2017, pushing himself firmly into the round two range. Yet he hardly had a bad year either. In the third round you’re not taking much of a gamble. Falk has talent in a league desperate for good quarterback play. If he isn’t starting for the Seahawks in five years, he might be starting for someone else.

Why waste a pick on a QB this early though?

There aren’t many alternatives. Seattle’s lack of picks is a problem and likely a main reason why they’re willing to contemplate trading Earl Thomas for a bounty.

At pick #33 in the mock above a lot of the best pass rushers were gone. So I had them take a running back, addressing their self-confessed biggest need (fixing the run). If I’d had them passing on a runner at #33, they would’ve missed out on the top eight altogether.

Sometimes the board falls this way. Ideally I would’ve had the Seahawks taking a runner and a pass rusher. It didn’t work out. So I had them trading down from #64 and thought it’d be interesting to bring up the possibility of taking a QB.

What happens to the pass rush though?

A few key points here:

— The Seahawks do have Frank Clark, Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo and Marcus Smith. Cliff Avril is expected to retire but as of today, remains part of the roster. It hasn’t been completely ruled out that he’ll play again. There’s also at least some possibility Malik McDowell will return this year.

— In 2010-11 the Seahawks relied heavily on Chris Clemons to provide a pass rush, aided by Raheem Brock. In 2012 they added Bruce Irvin. It wasn’t until 2013 that they signed Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. They waited for the right players to become available. They might be willing to roll with Clark, Jordan, Mingo and Smith this year.

— The 2019 draft class looks like it could be a defensive line special. You’ve got the Clemson quartet of Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant. Nick Bosa (Joey’s brother) is eligible to turn pro. Houston’s Ed Oliver has already stated he’ll be declaring for the draft. Michigan’s Rashan Gary is eligible. Teams plan ahead and it won’t be a surprise if the Seahawks are thinking 2019 could be the year to focus on pass rushers.

It’s also possible the draft falls a bit differently in round one and the Seahawks find a way to draft a pass rusher with an early pick. I’m not ruling it out — I’m just looking at a different scenario today.

And for what it’s worth, I do have them adding Shaquem Griffin and Leon Jacobs on day three. Griffin is a nickel linebacker and pass rush specialist. Jacobs is capable of acting as a SAM/LEO and providing some edge pressure.

Why Ronald Jones II?

You can make arguments for and against the pick. On the positive side, Jones II is truly one of the most dynamic players in the draft. A legit top-20 talent. His aggressive running style, vision, incredible suddenness and ability to make a deadly cut and explode to the second level is highly impressive. Simply put, his tape is fantastic. He has genuine star potential and the comparisons to Jamaal Charles, as we’ve said many times before, are warranted.

On the negative side of things, he’s only 205lbs. That’s below Seattle’s apparent prototype for the position. He was highly productive and tough at USC but at the next level he might need to be part of a duo. Which is fine. Think Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara. Seattle’s version could be Chris Carson & Ronald Jones II.

Even so, if you want a reason to be wary of taking Jones II — that’s it. And the Seahawks might prefer someone who is bigger (such as Nick Chubb or Kerryon Johnson). Jones II is incredibly talented, explosive and dynamic and the type of athlete they’ve added in the past. But it doesn’t mean he’s a guaranteed fit.

If the Seahawks were wavering on his size, this could also be a factor:

Now heard from more than one team who has been turned off by how "dismissive" Ronald Jones has been during their discussions with him. Caught both teams way off guard.

— Lance Zierlein (@LanceZierlein) March 22, 2018

When you aren’t an absolutely perfect fit (and Jones II isn’t because he’s not a sturdy 220lbs) — you don’t want to give a team another reason to pass.

That said, he’s not a bad guy. This isn’t a true character ‘flag’. It’s just a thing that, as Lance notes, caught teams off guard. Because he comes across as a good talker and a personable, determined character.

Jones II is a special player with a ceiling that includes greatness. He has to be a consideration.

Why no offensive linemen?

It’s quite simple. In the last two years the Seahawks have spent a first round pick on Germain Ifedi, a second round pick on Ethan Pocic, a third round pick on Rees Odhiambo, a second and a third round pick on Duane Brown and they extended the contract of 2014 second round pick Justin Britt.

The Seahawks have poured resources into their O-line. And alone it hasn’t been a solution. Pete Carroll and John Schneider drafted these players and it appears they still believe they’re capable of forming a cohesive group.

They’ve changed coaches. They’re tweaking the scheme. They’ve signed D.J. Fluker. They’ll be getting George Fant back. More highly drafted rookies aren’t always the solution. This group needs better guidance to execute and communicate and function. Now it’s up to Mike Solari to deliver.

Final thoughts

Predicting what the Seahawks will do is even harder than usual this year because of their lack of picks. We’re not just projecting possible targets — we’re also trying to guess how they’ll move around the board to fill the gigantic hole between pick #18 and #120.

I do think they will target a running back early. It doesn’t have to be their first pick but it’ll probably be one of their first two. I think they will look to add speed across the board. I think they will also target players with strong special teams value.

That’s what I’ve tried to do with this projection. From Ronald Jones II to Shaquem Griffin to Leon Jacobs to Natrell Jamerson — there’s a lot of speed. The Seahawks would be a faster team on both sides of the ball.

I’ve also tried to identify players with grit, toughness and intelligence.

There are always names you’d like to include too. Isaiah Wynn, Austin Corbett, Christian Kirk, Maurice Hurst, Andrew Brown, Jessie Bates III. All intelligent, tough players with high talent. I’ve grown to appreciate Dallas Goedert more after further study this week. Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson are both appealing alternatives at running back and there are players like Nick Nelson that don’t fit Seattle’s prototype but still jump off the screen.

With the draft just over three weeks away we’ll continue to look at different scenarios and possibilities.

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Heard from multiple folks after #Browns go QB 1st Overall and Chubb/Barkley/Denzel 4th Overall… They'll trade back into Rd1 with #Seahawks. Rumors this time of Yr are everywhere, but I've been hearing this one since before combine… Seahawks only pick in Top 120 is 18th.

— Chad Forbes (@NFLDraftBites) March 29, 2018

Twitter rumours.

Who knows if there’s anything in this but at least it presents a scenario to talk about.

In last weeks mock we had the Patriots trading up to #18 to take a left tackle. The Browns could also be targeting O-line.

There are two tackles expected to go in round one — Mike McGlinchey and Kolton Miller. When McGlinchey goes off the board (possibly in the top-15) it’ll create some anxiety.

Other teams in the teens might not be inclined to move down into the 30’s. The Seahawks, with no picks in rounds two or three, would presumably be very interested.

Cleveland and New England are also realistic trade partners because they own multiple second round picks. They can afford to be aggressive and still pick in round two.

So let’s say the Browns move up. Here’s a seven round Seahawks mock draft representing this scenario:

#33 — Running back (Ronald Jones II, Nick Chubb or Kerryon Johnson)
#64 — Josh Sweat (DE, Florida State)
#120 — Kameron Kelly (DB, San Diego State)
#141 — Durham Smythe (TE, Notre Dame)
#146 — Leon Jacobs (LB, Wisconsin)
#150 — Natrell Jamerson (S, Wisconsin)
#156 — Dorian O’Daniel (LB, Clemson)
#168 — Chase Edmonds (RB, Fordham)
#226 — Poona Ford (DT, Texas)
#248 — Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, USF)

#18 (R1) — Trade down with Cleveland
The Seahawks collect #33, #63 and #150. This turns #18 into two second round picks and another fifth rounder. The Browns move up to select Mike McGlinchey or Kolton Miller.

#33 (R2) — Draft a running back
This could be Ronald Jones II, Nick Chubb or Kerryon Johnson. All three are explosive, physical running backs. Jones II is a Jamaal Charles clone, Chubb fits their physical profile perfectly and Johnson has a very similar running style to Chris Carson. The top running backs in this class will last until about pick #45-50. If you want to take one, you might have to do it here.

#64 (R2) — Josh Sweat (DE, Florida State)
The Seahawks like to draft ‘special’ athletes to rush the edge. Sweat is 6-5, 251lbs and has 34.5 inch arms. He ran an elite 1.55 10-yard split and a 4.53 forty. He also tested superbly in the vertical (39.5 inches) broad (10-4) and short shuttle (4.28). He has a top-10 physical profile and incredible upside ready to be unleashed. The medical checks on his knee will be crucial though. Can he play without a knee brace and improve his get-off?

#120 (R4) — Kameron Kelly (DB, San Diego State)
Kelly is a confident, physical defensive back with size (6-1, 204lbs) and length (32 inch arms). He’s a converted receiver with experience at safety and cornerback. Kelly won’t stand out to many but there’s just something about him that feels ‘Seahawky’. He also has terrific value on special teams. This will be a theme for the rest of the mock draft.

#141 (R5) — Durham Smythe (TE, Notre Dame)
Smythe is a classic Y-tight end who was predominantly asked to block at Notre Dame. He had an excellent Senior Bowl week, during practise and in the game itself. He doesn’t stand out physically and that could keep him on the board into the early fifth round but for the Seahawks he’d be a valued run blocker with some chain-moving ability.

#146 (R5) — Leon Jacobs (LB, Wisconsin)
The Seahawks love speed at linebacker and Jacobs has it. His combine performance deserves more attention — especially his 4.48 forty at 6-1 and 248lbs. He has good length (33.5 inch arms) and managed a 1.58 10-yard split (anything in the 1.5’s is money). The Seahawks could train him to play the WILL or MIKE or they could use him as a situational rusher. Jacobs plays with his hair on fire.

#150 (R5) — Natrell Jamerson (S, Wisconsin)
The Wisconsin defense was really good again last year. It would’ve been nice to find a way to get Nick Nelson into the mock too as competition for Justin Coleman. Jamerson is a free safety who ran a 4.40 at the combine. He also flashed as a kick returner and gunner. He could be an instant force on special teams.

#156 (R5) — Dorian O’Daniel (LB, Clemson)
O’Daniel quietly had an impact for Clemson last season and has been touted as a possible linebacker or safety at the next level. His forty time of 4.61 was nothing to write home about but he excelled in the important agility tests — running a blistering 4.07 short shuttle and a 6.64 three-cone. O’Daniel is also a skull-collector on special teams and would be worth the pick purely for that.

#168 (R5) — Chase Edmonds (RB, Fordham)
The Seahawks could easily draft multiple running backs this year. It’s that kind of class. And they’re paying particular attention to smaller, dynamic and explosive runners like Chase Edmonds and Ito Smith. Edmonds is tenacious and has even been compared to Devonta Freeman by some.

#226 (R7) — Poona Ford (DT, Texas)
I didn’t want to wait this long to draft a defensive tackle and I’ll talk more about that in a moment. Ford is set to visit the VMAC and freely admits his combine-snub has left a chip on his shoulder. He’s only 5-11 but he’s explosive (9-3 broad) and agile (4.47 short shuttle) with long arms (33 inches).

#248 (R7) — Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, USF)
Speed seems to be the order of the day at receiver and MVS ran a superb 4.37 at 6-4 and 206lbs. He also has massive 10-inch hands. He’s a project but the Seahawks have often drafted day three receivers and given them time to develop.

Final thoughts

Since it became public that Maurice Hurst and Christian Kirk are visiting the VMAC, you almost want to find a way to squeeze in extra round two picks to include them in the mock. Both are terrific players but the reality is Seattle will be limited even if they trade down. They’re badly missing those second and third round picks.

The only way to get them back is to trade trade Earl Thomas. Increasingly it looks like Seattle is open for business but nobody is willing to meet the asking price. When #49 comes around (Seattle’s native pick in round two) you’ll be cringing about the names left on the board.

Hurst isn’t the only defensive lineman it would’ve been nice to include. The likes of B.J. Hill, Andrew Brown, Justin Jones, Jalyn Holmes and Tyquan Lewis might provide value in this draft. Kemoko Turay is a talented pass rusher too and could’ve been an alternative to Josh Sweat. If they wanted to wait on an EDGE, Duke Ejiofor is an option.

We talk about this a lot but the value from about 30-50 is going to be fantastic this year. That’s where the likes of Isaiah Wynn, Austin Corbett, as many as six running backs, Christian Kirk and others might land. The Colts, with three picks in that range, have a chance to come away with a great haul.

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Trades are again included. Thoughts are underneath.

Before starting, I was invited on the ‘Waxing Lyrical’ podcast this week (a UK based NFL show). Have a listen by clicking here. Chris Wesseling was also a guest.

#1 Cleveland — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
#2 NY Giants — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
#3 NY Jets (via Ind) — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
#4 Buffalo (via Cle, Hou) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
#5 Denver — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
#6 Indianapolis (via NYJ) — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
#8 Chicago — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
#9 Miami (via SF) — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
#10 Oakland — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
#11 San Fran (via Mia) — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
#12 Cleveland (via Buf, Cin) — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
#13 Washington — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
#14 Green Bay — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
#15 Arizona — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
#16 Baltimore — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
#17 LA Chargers — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
#18 New England (via Sea) — Kolton Miller (T, UCLA)
#19 Dallas — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
#20 Detroit — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
#21 Cincinnati (via Buf) — James Daniels (C, Iowa)
#22 Cleveland (via Buf, KC) — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
#23 LA Rams — Harold Landry (DE, Boston College)
#24 Carolina — Rasheem Green (DE, USC)
#25 Tennessee — Taven Bryan (DE, Florida)
#26 Atlanta — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
#27 New Orleans — Justin Reid (S, Stanford)
#28 Pittsburgh — Jessie Bates III (S, Wake Forest)
#29 Jacksonville — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
#30 Minnesota — Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
#31 Seattle (via NE) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
#32 Indianapolis (via Phi) — Austin Corbett (G, Nevada)

#33 Cleveland — Jaire Alexander (CB, Louisville)
#34 NY Giants — Will Hernandez (G, UTEP)
#35 Cleveland — Sony Michel (RB, Georgia)
#36 Philadelphia (via Ind) — Malik Jefferson (LB, Texas)
#37 Indianapolis — Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
#38 Tampa Bay — Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)
#39 Chicago — Connor Williams (T, Texas)
#40 Denver — Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia)
#41 Oakland — Ronnie Harrison (S, Alabama)
#42 Miami — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
#43 New England (via SF) — Mike Hughes (CB, UCF)
#44 Washington — Royce Freeman (RB, Oregon)
#45 Green Bay — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
#46 Cincinnati — Hayden Hurst (TE, South Carolina)
#47 Arizona — Tyrell Crosby (T, Oregon)
#48 LA Chargers — Brian O’Neill (T, Pittsburgh)
#49 Indianapolis — D.J. Moore (WR, Maryland)
#50 Dallas — Carlton Davis (CB, Auburn)
#51 Detroit — Frank Ragnow (C, Arkansas)
#52 Baltimore — B.J. Hill (DT, NC State)
#53 Cleveland (via Buf) — Sam Hubbard (DE, Ohio State)
#54 Kansas City — Joshua Jackson (CB, Iowa)
#55 Carolina — Mike Gesicki (TE, Penn State)
#56 Buffalo (via LAR) — Harrison Phillips (DT, Stanford)
#57 Tennessee — Lorenzo Carter (EDGE, Georgia)
#58 Atlanta — Andrew Brown (DT, Virginia)
#59 San Francisco (via NOR) — Braden Smith (G, Auburn)
#60 Pittsburgh — James Washington (WR, Oklahoma State)
#61 Jacksonville — D.J. Chark (WR, LSU)
#62 Minnesota — Geron Christian (T, Louisville)
#63 Seattle (via NE) — Josh Sweat (DE, Florida State)
#64 Cleveland (via Phi) — Donte Jackson (CB, LSU)

The trades

Buffalo trades #12, #22 and #53 picks to Cleveland for #4
The Bills are in a situation now where their trade partners are quite limited. If they want to move up for a quarterback — and they clearly do — they’ll have to pay a steep price.

Miami trades #11 and #73 to San Francisco for #9
Seeing an opportunity to jump up two spots and secure a long term solution at quarterback, the Dolphins pull the trigger with Arizona, Baltimore and Los Angeles lurking.

New England trades #31 and #63 to Seattle for #18
The Patriots use their extra second round pick to jump into the top-20 to secure a replacement for Nate Solder. The Seahawks get an extra pick in the top-60.

Indianapolis trades #36 and #140 to Philadelphia for #32
The Colts make a small jump back into round one to secure the underrated Austin Corbett.

Mock notes

— There are numerous possibilities in the top-four. New York trading Jason Pierre-Paul could bring Bradley Chubb into play at #2. The Giants could easily take a quarterback there. Either way, Barkley probably doesn’t drop any further than the #4 pick. My prediction is the quarterbacks could come off the board in this order — Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield.

— In this projection I’ve got two running backs going in round one and seven in the top-50. San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny is the one name I couldn’t find a spot for. He could easily go in the second round too.

— If there are two positions that might get pushed up the board due to lack of numbers it’s offensive tackle and defensive end. I’ve not really represented that here, although Mike McGlinchey at #12 and Kolton Miller at #18 does to some extent. The EDGE rushers might go quickly too. If you need one — you’ll need to take them early.

Notes on the Seahawks

— It’s much harder to project the Seahawks this year because of their lack of picks. It’s pretty certain they’ll trade down from #18 but predicting a deal isn’t easy. It’s even harder to work out how they might fill their most pressing needs.

— I went with Ronald Jones II first because he’s the type of dynamic, high-upside athlete they’ve targeted early (or via trade) in the past. Lance Zierlein’s tweet yesterday was interesting but this is the team that traded for Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch and drafted Malik McDowell. So I’m not sure how impacted they’ll be by this. And let’s be clear — the frustration about Jones II is nowhere near the kind of drama Seattle handled/tolerated with Harvin, Lynch and McDowell. Not even close. I’m just pointing out they’re not easily put off natural talent.

— We talked yesterday how they could go RB/DE or DE/RB. At #31 the defensive end options had pretty much gone in that range. Harold Landry and Rasheem Green were off the board in the 20’s. So running back in this situation felt like a fair choice.

— I considered writing in another trade down for Seattle. In that scenario they would’ve probably missed out on Ronald Jones II. Nick Chubb would’ve been option B.

— In the late second round there might be some appealing defensive line options. I paired Sweat with Seattle based on his profile. It was equally tempting to give them someone like B.J. Hill, Andrew Brown, Kemoko Turay or Jalyn Holmes.

— These two picks would allow the Seahawks to target linebacker (Leon Jacobs?), defensive line (Tyquan Lewis, Justin Jones?), defensive back (Natrell Jamerson?) and tight end (Schultz, Smythe or Dissly?) on day three. The lack of a third round pick could cost them an opportunity to draft some intriguing players, especially on the defensive line and at tight end.

I’ll do a Live Google Hangout at 5pm PST today. If you have a question for the Q&A leave it in the comments section.

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Here are three facts about this draft class:

1. It’s top heavy at running back
2. It’s thin at EDGE
3. There’s some talent at guard/center in the first two rounds

The Seahawks have the #18 pick and then nothing until #120. It’ll be virtually impossible to draft one of the best running backs, a top guard and a pass rusher before round four. Even if they trade down.

Let’s go through each position.

1. Running back

We could see 6-8 going in the top-60. It’s that kind of class. By the start of round three all eight of the top runners could be gone. Then there’s a drop-off.

The top eight are likely Saquon Barkley, Ronald Jones II, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, Rashaad Penny and Royce Freeman.

If you want to tap into this great running back group you’re probably going to have to take one in the top-50. And teams know that. Jay Gruden pretty much admitted the Redskins intend to. They won’t be alone.

2. Defensive end

Bradley Chubb and Marcus Davenport will go in the top-15. If you want an impact EDGE rusher with serious potential after that, you’re looking at Harold Landry, Josh Sweat and Kemoko Turay. Some teams might view Uchenna Nwosu, Lorenzo Carter and Leon Jacobs as EDGE options but they’re arguably better suited to SAM/LEO (where Seattle just added Barkevious Mingo). There are inside/out type rushers too (Rasheem Green) but there are some nice DE/DT types available later. That might be a role reserved for Dion Jordan. This could be about finding the next Cliff Avril.

A 1.5 10-yard split is usually a good indicator for a talented EDGE and only Landry (1.59) and Sweat (1.55) managed that. Turay ran a 1.62. Tulane’s Ade Aruna ran a 1.60 and had a very good combine workout but will likely need at least one redshirt year. To compare, Avril ran a 1.50 and Bruce Irvin a 1.55.

The Seahawks need some pass rushers. If Avril retires they’re currently relying on Frank Clark, Jordan and Mingo. They probably need to add a veteran and a rookie. If they don’t take an EDGE early they might miss out.

3. Guard/center

Quenton Nelson will go in the top-10 and then we could see a handful of interior offensive linemen drafted in the late first or early second round. That’s the range where Isaiah Wynn, Will Hernandez and Austin Corbett are slated to go. Iowa center James Daniels will also go quickly plus injured duo Frank Ragnow and Billy Price will probably be top-50 picks. Braden Smith could also go in round two.

As with the running back position, we’ll then see a drop-off.

If you had multiple picks between 20-60 you could address all three areas. The Colts own #6, #35, #36 and #49. They’ll be rubbing their hands looking at this class. Not only can they address DE early (Bradley Chubb) they’ll be in prime range to add a guard and a running back in the value zone and fill another need.

Jealous much?

The Seahawks are in a very different situation. They’re not going to be able to turn #18 into two early second round picks. At best they might be able to take advantage of New England (#31) and Cleveland (#33) owning multiple second round picks. A deal to move down 13-15 spots could net a late second.

They’re going to have to pick their poison.

Only a big trade involving Earl Thomas can change the situation. Even then, you’d be creating a void at safety that might need to be filled by a Jessie Bates III or Justin Reid. And currently, nothing appears imminent on Thomas. It’s over a week since Jason La Canfora’s tweet about interest in a deal.

By trading down significantly from #18 and acquiring a late second rounder or an early third rounder, they might be able to target two of the need positions.

So far they haven’t signed a defensive end. They re-signed Mike Davis today, although that’s likely a deal to provide competition and depth. The addition of D.J. Fluker as a likely starter suggests they won’t be drafting a guard early.

The focus instead could be RB + DE.

Reasons why they might’ve come to that conclusion

The Seahawks are only a year removed from drafting Ethan Pocic in round two. It’d be a big call to determine he isn’t good enough after just one season.

They’ve invested a ton of draft picks into their offensive line:

Duane Brown — 2018 R3 and 2019 R2
Ethan Pocic — 2017 R2
Justin Britt — 2014 R2
Germain Ifedi — 2016 R1
Rees Odhimabo — 2016 R3

Now they’ve signed D.J. Fluker too.

Eventually, you have to back your judgement and challenge the coaches to make the group function. Mike Solari hasn’t come in to blow up the personnel and create a new line. He’s here to work with the bulk of the existing group. The only new starter might be Fluker at right guard.

There could be some shifting around. George Fant might win the job at right tackle. Rees Odhiambo could compete at left guard. The Seahawks have already poured picks into their O-line. Now it’s time to get it working.

It can’t always be about ‘one more high pick’. The success or failure of the line is unlikely to be determined by the left guard alone. It’s one man in a group of five. Solari’s challenge is to improve communication and execution, particularly in the run game.

Time to deliver.

That’s not to say they wouldn’t benefit from having Isaiah Wynn, Austin Corbett or Will Hernandez lining up at left guard. It’d be great. But what’s the proposal? Bench Pocic and call it a wasted pick, while failing to properly address running back or defensive end? Or give Pocic a chance to take a step forward and fill the other two needs?

This is just part of building a roster. Every team has a call to make. Very few come into the draft with only one or two holes to fill. You’re nearly always working out the best combination.

Seattle drafted Pocic. They signed Fluker. They’ve not done anything significant at running back or defensive end. Things can change but right now those two positions seem to be the draft focus.

If nothing else, it’s logical.

And while some might suggest the Mike Davis signing addresses running back — you’re not passing on the top runners in this draft because of this news. You really aren’t. This is about making sure you’re not going into camp with just a rookie, Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise as your depth.

We should spend some time discussing combinations at running back + EDGE that fit for the Seahawks.

They could find a way to go Ronald Jones II then Josh Sweat. Or it could be Harold Landry and Nick Chubb.

Either scenario makes some sense.

They’d be taking a pass rusher that fits what they’ve gone for in the past (highly athletic, 1.5 10-yard split, good agility/explosive testing). If they want an EDGE with plus athleticism, Landry and Sweat are certainly options.

There are alternatives too. If they wanted to go with an inside/out rusher instead they could consider Rasheem Green. He’s projected in the late first or early second round. Sam Hubbard is another who could go in that range. Andrew Brown is rising quickly and could be a target as early as round two.

Jones II is a little lighter than they’ve drafted at running back but he’s that explosive, sudden, dynamic playmaker they’ve often coveted. He has star potential and looks every bit Jamaal Charles 2.0. That’s hard to ignore. He’s also much tougher and aggressive than some of the bigger backs in this class. If only Bo Scarborough played with Rojo’s intensity. He’d be going a lot earlier in the draft.

Chubb meanwhile is practically the definition of the type of running back they’ve previously drafted. About 5-10 and 225lbs, incredibly explosive and tough. Kerryon Johnson is another alternative.

Address these two needs early and you’re set up for the rest of the draft. You can fill out your D-line depth with the beef at Ohio State (Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes) and NC State (B.J. Hill, Justin Jones, Kentavius Street). You can look to bring in another blocking tight end (Dalton Schultz, Durham Smythe, Will Dissly). There are plenty of options at linebacker (Leon Jacobs, Fred Warner, Dorian O’Daniel, Oren Burks) and you can add some talent to the secondary (Natrell Jamerson, Nick Nelson, Tre Flowers, Isaac Yiadom, Brandon Facyson, Terrell Edmunds).

If there’s one other thing free agency is telling us, it’s that the Seahawks aren’t enamoured with the draft options at receiver. They’ve already added Marcus Johnson and Jaron Brown. Reportedly they’re still in the hunt for Terrelle Pryor. They might wait until the last round or UDFA although Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimious St. Brown are intriguing options from the combine.

Re-signing Bradley McDougald and adding Maurice Alexander could take strong safety off the board too, especially if Earl Thomas is retained at free safety.

EDIT — The Seahawks also re-signed Marcus Smith today. It’s valuable depth and he can be an EDGE. As with the Davis signing, I’m not sure it changes anything in terms of the overall discussion in this piece.

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Wisconsin could be something of a supply line for the Seahawks in the draft. In our Seahawks seven-round mock recently we had them taking Leon Jacobs (LB) and Natrell Jamerson (FS).

Tony Pauline reported on Wednesday that Seattle had dinner with Jamerson and cornerback Nick Nelson after the Badgers’ pro-day.

The Seahawks love speed at linebacker and Jacobs was one of the few to run particularly well at the combine. At 6-1 and 246lbs he ran an impressive 4.48:

#Wisconsin Leon Jacobs with a 4.49u on his 1st 40 attempt.

Jacobs is a jacked 246 lbs. He’s not from this planet. pic.twitter.com/QNrmMB9Hwn

— Steve Frederick (@SportsGuyTweets) March 4, 2018

He’s not as tall as previous LEO projects but he has good arm length to make up for it (33.5 inch arms). He tested well in the vertical (34.5) and broad (10-2). Crucially he also ran a 1.58 10-yard split — the measure of initial quickness and burst. Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin and Barkevious Mingo all ran in the 1.5’s.

As a linebacker prospect Jacobs also ran a similar short shuttle to K.J. Wright (4.44 vs 4.46). In many ways he’s a solid fit. There are limited LEO prospects in the draft or free agency (thus the Mingo signing). He’s a hitter who plays with intensity. He has the demeanour that you want in a linebacker and the potential to develop into a solid pass rush contributor.

Not many players can do this to a left tackle:

Lol Leon Jacobs is absurd. Most linebackers can't destroy left tackles like this.#Badgers pic.twitter.com/tXB1KWZ8NC

— Jay (@jay_1252) October 5, 2017

He reads plays particularly well and plays with patience. Here he is blowing up a screen:

#Badgers cuts from FAU…watch Leon Jacobs read the screen pass all the way. Broke on it almost immediately. pic.twitter.com/11cPUQXPzE

— Jay (@jay_1252) September 12, 2017

Here is showing patience in the open field and then the closing speed/finish to make the TFL against the running back:

Every week, Leon Jacobs makes plays. Look how faw away he is from the RB at the snap, yet gets a TFL. Play recognition & instincts. #Badgers pic.twitter.com/0yOi4K69QJ

— Jay (@jay_1252) September 21, 2017

Here he is handling a receiver to make a one-armed TFL:

How strong is Leon Jacobs? He makes this TFL with one arm. The other was still on the receiver when he made the play. #Badgers pic.twitter.com/XLYtefuaP8

— Jay (@jay_1252) September 8, 2017

There weren’t really any players like Jacobs in last years draft (when Pete Carroll talked about adding youth to the linebacker position). He’s the perfect combination of size, speed, explosive traits and intensity. There’s work to be done here (he was more of a role player at Wisconsin) and he’ll need refining. There aren’t many players with a higher physical upside in this draft, however.

Natrell Jamerson initially stood out for his special teams value. He flies around and recorded 20 tackles on kickoff coverage. He can be a gunner and a returner:

As a safety there’s also an awful lot to work with. He ran a 4.40 at 5-10 and 201lbs so he has range. Somehow he managed 25 reps on the bench press at the combine despite the weight disadvantage (try benching your body weight +25lbs). That’s an incredible achievement. At the Wisconsin pro-day he add three inches to his vertical jump (38) and also improved on his broad jump (10-3).

Natrell Jamerson, who crushed it at the NFL combine, goes 38 inches in the vertical jump at pro day. Enhancing his stock. #Badgers pic.twitter.com/FuhSZYYHPe

— Jesse Temple (@jessetemple) March 14, 2018

With Earl Thomas’ future still relatively undecided, the Seahawks are assessing the draft options. Tony Pauline previously noted interest in Wake Forest’s Jessie Bates III. Jamerson has the raw tools and instinct in zone to make plays like this:

Natrell Jamerson helps out Wisconsin with this pick six! #Badgers #OnWisconsin pic.twitter.com/PZpXIbCw4S

— The Game Haus Sports (@TGHSports) September 30, 2017

I needed to take a look at Nick Nelson. He wasn’t on the radar. After all, why are the Seahawks meeting with him? He’s somewhere between 5-10 and 5-11 and has 30 3/4 inch arms. He is the very definition of a cornerback they don’t draft. He only ran a 4.52 at 200lbs too.

Yet watching him at Wisconsin, it’s clear why they’re showing some interest. Arguably there isn’t a cornerback in this class that plays tighter coverage. He smothers receivers and blankets them, frequently getting a hand to the football.

His performance against Maryland’s D.J. Moore (a possible first round pick) was outstanding. He’s #11 for Wisconsin:

Look at the first attempt in the red zone and how quickly he closes space and narrows the throwing window for the quarterback. On the second red zone snap, he’s all over Moore. There’s no chance for the quarterback to get him the ball.

At the 1:45 minute mark you’ll note the long, looping pass thrown by the quarterback that falls incomplete. Watch after the ball drops to the ground. Nelson comes in and absolute dumps Moore on his backside. It’s a bit unnecessary but fun nonetheless. Seattle has missed some of that attitude recently.

The only reception Moore completed came on a play where Nelson forces him to re-route and he steps out of bounds before illegally catching the pass. At about the 3:20 mark he has blanket coverage on Moore downfield and plays the ball to force an incompletion.

He pitched a shut-out against one of the most athletic, tough and highly rated receivers in the draft.

In total Nelson had 21 passes defended in 2017 — the most in college football. He recorded 42 for his career. It’s very clear why. His footwork is efficient, you don’t see him fooled on double moves. He’s just sticky. It all looks so effortless. He mirrors receivers, tracks the route, doesn’t make many mistakes and when the ball’s in the air he’ll compete.

He’s thick set and physical. He looks like a tremendous prospect to handle slot-corner duties. In an emergency even a team like Seattle could probably trust him to put in a shift outside.

You also wonder if they see him as a possible safety project. After all, he’s so far away from Seattle’s prototype cornerback. They simply don’t draft guys like this. His size, composure, timing and reading of the game could fit a move to free safety. He plays with the competitiveness of a Seahawks safety, that’s for sure.

He didn’t do the agility tests at the combine but he took part at the Wisconsin pro-day:

Nick Nelson at Pro Day:
⏱ 3.88 Pro Agility
⏱ 6.69 3-Cone

Nelson’s Pro Agility time would have been the best by a DB at the #NFLCombine (best was 3.94) pic.twitter.com/YkXLQ3BOVT

— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) March 14, 2018

There’s some quickness on show here:

#Badgers CB Nick Nelson runs his 3 Cone pic.twitter.com/uygNEfMPIf

— Owen Riese (@RieseDraft) March 14, 2018

Nelson received a second round grade from the draft committee but he’s being projected to last a little longer than that.

Jacobs, Jamerson and Nelson are three names to keep an eye on here. All three are highly athletic, physical and competitive. They’re winners. And the Seahawks are going to need to draft some young players like this for their defense.

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Open a mock draft over the next few days and you’ll very likely see the Seahawks paired with a defensive player at #18.

Most mocks don’t include trades so it won’t really mean much. The Seahawks are as likely as any team to move down, considering they don’t own picks in rounds 2-3. Even so, the mocks are interesting to read because it’s an outsider view on where the Seahawks are at.

Unfortunately, most will overreact to the Richard Sherman departure. They’ll put a cornerback at #18 despite the fact the Seahawks have a proven record of doing the opposite. They’ve waited until day three for their corners and drafted a profile. The earliest they’ve taken a corner is round three and it’s almost certain they won’t take a corner any earlier this year.

If there’s one position Pete Carroll is comfortable coaching up, it’s corner.

The most likely early pick will be something to help the running game. Pete Carroll has identified this as a major cause for concern. Anyone following the team closely will know how desperate the situation became in 2017. One running touchdown by a back all year. That isn’t Pete Carroll football.

They’re unlikely to just blame this on the O-line too. Having invested so many early picks on the unit, it’ll likely be up to Mike Solari to get more out of the group. They might make some changes but a ‘just one more high pick‘ approach might be unlikely — even if there are some exceptional guard candidates this year (Isaiah Wynn, Will Hernandez etc).

It’s fashionable to play down the importance of the running back position but we’ll see how the Seahawks approach it in April.

If they were going to go defense early (a proposition much more likely if they acquire extra stock in rounds 2-3) it probably wouldn’t be a corner. I’m not sure it’d be a defensive lineman either. There’s isn’t any quite special enough. Nobody with Bruce Irvin’s 4.4 speed or Cliff Avril’s 1.50 split to work the edge. Marcus Davenport didn’t have a bad workout but it wasn’t particularly exciting either.

Bruce Irvin, Frank Clark, Malik McDowell — all freakishly athletic and physical in their own different way. Nobody is particularly unique among this D-line class outside of Bradley Chubb and Vita Vea.

And that’s why both Chubb and Vea will go in the top-10.

So what would the Seahawks do if they wanted to take a defensive player in round one? And what would they look for?

It’d probably have to be a player with cornerstone potential. Someone who can develop into an integral part of the next core. It’d also need to be someone with leadership qualities and eye-catching physical numbers.

Derwin James will be a name that springs to mind. It’s difficult to judge his stock at the moment. He had a terrific combine but that wasn’t unexpected. He’s considered a leader. The only thing holding him back somewhat is position (few teams take a box safety early). Are you getting a major, significant impact if you take him in round one? At Florida State his tape was, in fairness, frequently quite dull. What counters that is the ability of James to develop into a greater playmaker given his testing numbers and the impact he might provide for a young defense breaking in a new identity.

For those reasons, he could interest Seattle.

That said, there might be an even more appealing option.

I spent some time today looking closely at Leighton Vander Esch. It’s high time he earned widespread recognition as a likely top-20 pick.

His first-step quickness at 6-4 and 256lbs is legit. He explodes to the ball and has enough range to play inside or outside linebacker. So often it’s difficult for opponents to get to him — whether it’s a running back covering the blitz or even a lineman. He’s just too quick, too agile:

Leighton Vander Esch shows some good agility here as the RB tries to cut him. #BoiseState pic.twitter.com/9PJo01x8Qu

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) March 4, 2018

When he needs to power through a blocker, he can do that too:

More Leighton Vander Esch. Decent power at the point of attack. #boisestate pic.twitter.com/N4OuW6VAjL

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) March 5, 2018

We’re talking about a highly athletic, physical and at times violent player. He plays the game bigger and stronger than the opponent and has the attitude and passion on the field you want to see for the position. He loves to fill gaps vs the run, he’ll chase down the ball-carrier from behind and he has a knack for being in the right place due to an instinctive feel for the game.

Last year he had eight TFL’s, three interceptions, four sacks and four forced fumbles. At the next level he’ll be a stat machine and a playmaker.

He ran a 4.65 at the combine which is fine. Not outstanding but fine. Vander Esch more than made up for it elsewhere. He had an outstanding 4.15 short shuttle highlighting his extraordinary quickness for his size. Mike Gesicki was lauded for his short shuttle time (4.10) but Vander Esch is nine pounds heavier.

He showed off his mobility/agility during the drills:

Leighton Vander Esch moves well for a big man pic.twitter.com/JLSWK5RukV

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) March 4, 2018

He also managed a 39.5 inch vertical, a 10-4 broad and a 6.88 three-cone.

A man weighing 256lbs shouldn’t be able to move like this covering a pass to the flat (and bonus points for the hit):

Boise State has produced some impact defenders, including DeMarcus Lawrence of the Cowboys. Is Leighton Vander Esch the next? Off the ball backer. Had a very good combine. Speed and fludity on display vs Oregon. pic.twitter.com/41ca8iXxJY

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) March 4, 2018

This might be my favourite clip. Look at the way he diagnoses the play, works across the line, avoids blockers and executes the tackle. Not to mention the way he stands over the ball-carrier afterwards and gives him a little, ‘enjoy it down there’:

LB Leighton Vander Esch specializes in shutting run games down. His ability to maneuver in tight spaces, avoid trash & make tackles will be effective day 1. He also has the ability to pattern match & patrol the middle of the field. #Draft

Scouting report: https://t.co/RzaRTJL8Ta pic.twitter.com/w5flxvTM6S

— Cover 1 (@Cover_1_) February 17, 2018

Can he drop into coverage, read the play and make a pick? You bet:

INTERCEPTION!!! Who else but Leighton Vander Esch! He returns it to the Bulldog 19! Bronco ball, 1:50 to play, and the Bulldogs have no timeouts! #BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/1JH9uRBbKm

— Bill Poulson (@SmurfTurfer) December 3, 2017

Let’s look at how his testing numbers compare to some of the players already in the league:

Short shuttle

Thomas Davis — 4.01
Von Miller — 4.06
Shaq Thompson — 4.08
Luke Kuechly — 4.12
T.J. Watt — 4.13
Vic Beasley — 4.15
Leighton Vander Esch — 4.15
Sean Lee — 4.16
Khalil Mack — 4.18
Anthony Barr — 4.19
Lavonte David — 4.22
Bobby Wagner — 4.28
Jordan Willis — 4.28
Zach Cunningham — 4.29
Jamie Collins — 4.32
K.J. Wright — 4.35
Haason Reddick — 4.37
Telvin Smith — 4.57

Quicker in the short shuttle than Bobby Wagner and placed nicely between Luke Kuechly, Sean Lee, Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr. He also ran the same time as Vic Beasley.

Three cone

Von Miller — 6.70
Tyus Bowser — 6.75
T.J. Watt — 6.79
Anthony Barr — 6.82
Jordan Willis — 6.85
Leighton Vander Esch — 6.88
Sean Lee — 6.89
Vic Beasley — 6.91
Luke Kuechly — 6.92
Shaq Thompson — 6.99
Haason Reddick — 7.01
Zach Cunningham — 7.03
Telvin Smith — 7.04
Khalil Mack — 7.08
Jamie Collins — 7.10
Thomas Davis — 7.10
Bobby Wagner — 7.10
K.J. Wright — 7.21
Lavonte David — 7.28

Again, this is impressive company. This time he’s quicker than lee and Kuechly (but ran a comparable time) and was considerably quicker than Mack, Wagner and Telvin Smith.

Vertical jump

Jamie Collins — 41.5
Vic Beasley — 41
Khalil Mack — 40
Leighton Vander Esch — 39.5
Bobby Wagner — 39.5
Jordan Willis — 39
Luke Kuechly — 38
Tyus Bowser — 37.5
Sean Lee — 37.5
Von Miller — 37
T.J. Watt — 37
Lavonte David — 36.5
Thomas Davis — 36.5
Haason Reddick — 36.5
Zach Cunningham — 35
Anthony Barr — 34.5
K.J. Wright — 34
Shaq Thompson — 33.5
Telvin Smith — 31.5

It’s never a bad thing to be as explosive in the vertical jump as Bobby Wagner (despite carrying an extra 15lbs in weight). Vander Esch is again nicely placed near Mack and above Kuechly, Lee and even Von Miller.

Broad jump

Jamie Collins — 11-7
Haason Reddick — 11-1
Bobby Wagner — 11-0
Vic Beasley — 10-10
Khalil Mack — 10-8
T.J. Watt — 10-8
Tyus Bowser — 10-6
Von Miller — 10-6
Anthony Barr — 10-5
Zach Cunningham — 10-5
Jordan Willis — 10-5
Leighton Vander Esch — 10-4
Luke Kuechly — 10-3
Sean Lee — 10-0
K.J. Wright — 10-0
Lavonte David — 9-11
Telvin Smith — 9-11
Shaq Thompson — 9-9
Thomas Davis — 9-7

Vander Esch didn’t perform as well as Wagner and Mack here but he’s in the same range as Barr, Kuechly and Lee.

Forty yard dash

Bobby Wagner — 4.46
Haason Reddick — 4.52
Telvin Smith — 4.52
Vic Beasley — 4.53
Von Miller — 4.53
Jordan Willis — 4.53
Luke Kuechly — 4.58
Thomas Davis — 4.60
Sean Lee — 4.60
Jamie Collins — 4.64
Shaq Thompson — 4.64
Tyus Bowser — 4.65
Lavonte David — 4.65
Khalil Mack — 4.65
Leighton Vander Esch — 4.65
Anthony Barr — 4.66
Zach Cunningham — 4.67
T.J. Watt — 4.69
K.J. Wright — 4.71

Even in the forty yard dash — his time didn’t initially stand out but it’s as quick as Mack and and Barr and in a similar range to Kuechly and Lee.

This isn’t a draft class loaded with legit first round graded players. It’s still easy to look at certain prospects and imagine star-quality. Saquon Barkley obviously has it. I think Ronald Jones II has it too. Bradley Chubb, Vita Vea, Quenton Nelson, Tremaine Edmunds. At least a couple of the quarterbacks could become big names in the league and I wouldn’t rule out Derwin James having an excellent career too.

It’s possible a decent number from this class could become top players in the league.

Vander Esch also has that kind of feel.

He can learn to shed better but he has the arm length (34 inches) to improve there. If he plays outside it won’t be as much of an issue (he played inside for Boise State).

I think you’re talking about a player who will fly to the ball, play fast and raise the intensity level of your defense. You can trust him to play the run and pass, he’ll be instinctive and he won’t just be a tackle collector. He will make plays, force turnovers and impact games.

I’m not sure whether the Seahawks will contemplate drafting him given their needs in the running game. He could end up in Oakland, Washington or Green Bay inside the top-15. It’s not improbable.

As Seattle begins a new chapter on defense, you can’t necessarily pick and choose where your blue-chip players will come. Vander Esch would be a temporary SAM and possibly a long term WILL. If they had their full compliment of picks, Vander Esch might be able to give them the type of attitude and talent they require as they turn over a new leaf.

He might not end up in navy blue but he’s still a player worthy of a high projection this year.

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The projection

R1/2 — Running back (one of Ronald Jones II, Nick Chubb or Kerryon Johnson)
R3 — Dalton Schultz (TE, Stanford)
R4 — Leon Jacobs (LB, Wisconsin)
R5 — Tyquan Lewis (DE, Ohio State)
R5 — Tre Flowers (DB, Oklahoma State)
R5 — Dorian O’Daniel (LB, Clemson)
R5 — Jordan Thomas (CB, Oklahoma)
R7 — Natrell Jamerson (S, Wisconsin)
R7 — Chase Edmonds (RB, Fordham)

Round one — #18
Trade down

It feels inevitable the Seahawks will trade down. The value in this draft will come in rounds 2-3. With no pick currently in either round, Seattle is highly likely to try and acquire some stock in that range. They could trade down into the late first or early second. What can they get in return? The only precedent we have is the 2013 trade between Dallas and San Francisco. The Niners moved from #31 to #18 and gave up a relatively early third round pick.

First pick — R1/2
Running back

Many fans will want the Seahawks to consider adding an O-liner here. It’s a very valid position to take. This is an extremely good class for interior offensive lineman. We’ve talked a lot recently about the possibility of Isaiah Wynn or Will Hernandez. Both players could be a consideration.

However, if the Seahawks retain Earl Thomas and don’t add extra picks in the second or third round, they’ll be limited. Having already spent a bounty of high draft picks on Duane Brown, Ethan Pocic, Germain Ifedi, Justin Britt and Rees Odhiambo, they might feel it’s time to invest in a different area of the team. They’re also creating the kind of cap room that could enable them to sign a veteran in free agency.

‘Getting by’ at running back hasn’t worked for two straight years. For all the talk about ‘finding running backs anywhere’, Seattle’s collection of mid/late round picks, UDFA’s and free agents haven’t brought about a solution. They were at their best when they had a consistent, physical, reliable running back with exceptional skill. It’s time to find another and this is the draft class to do it.

With their first pick in this seven round projection, the Seahawks select one of Ronald Jones II, Kerryon Johnson or Nick Chubb.

Round three — acquired via trading down in round one
Dalton Schultz (TE, Stanford)

The Seahawks need to address the tight end position at some stage, possibly with a rookie and a free agent. Jimmy Graham is on the way out and Luke Willson is also hitting the market. They could re-sign Willson or another veteran. That could be a blocking TE like Virgil Green or Niles Paul. It’s also quite possible they will spend a high pick on the position.

Schultz’s main responsibility at Stanford was to block. He frequently opened up lanes for Bryce Love and was a major factor in the running game. The Seahawks need someone who can be a factor as a blocker and make the occasional chain-moving catch.

Zach Miller did this job superbly and Schultz had a very similar combine:

Zach Miller
Height: 6-4
Weight: 256
Arm length: 32
Hand size: 10
Forty: 4.86
Vertical: 34
Broad: 9-7
Bench: 16 (pro day)
Short shuttle: 4.42
Three cone: 7.01

Dalton Schultz
Height: 6-5
Weight: 244
Arm length: 31 1/4
Hand size: 9.5
Forty: 4.75
Vertical: DNP
Broad: 10-0
Bench: 15
Short shuttle: 4.40
Three cone: 7.00

They’re particularly similar in the short shuttle and three cone plus their explosive testing and size/length are similar. Schultz was quite a bit quicker in the forty.

Round four
Leon Jacobs (LB, Wisconsin)

The Seahawks love speed at linebacker. Jacobs was one of the few to run particularly well at the combine, recording a superb 4.48 at 6-1 and 246lbs. He also jumped a 34.5 inch vertical and managed a 10-2 broad jump. He’s explosive and fast and also has good length (33.5 inch arms). Jacobs put up 26 reps on the bench press (second only to Malik Jefferson among linebackers). His short shuttle time (4.44) was similar to K.J. Wright’s (4.46). After re-watching some Wisconsin yesterday, Jacobs plays with real intensity. He’s a hitter with good closing speed and he can offer some value as a pass rusher. He could be an option to play strongside linebacker.

Round five
Defense time

This isn’t a bad round to own four picks. There will be some value on defense in this range. The four players I’m projecting are Tyquan Lewis (DE, Ohio State), Tre Flowers (DB, Oklahoma State), Dorian O’Daniel (LB, Clemson) and Jordan Thomas (CB, Oklahoma).

Tyquan Lewis had an explosive workout at the combine (35.5 inch vertical, 10-2 broad jump) and has the ideal size to play inside/out (6-3, 270lbs). He also has 34 inch arms. Lewis had a strong Senior Bowl and is a mature, well spoken individual. He could develop quickly into a strong voice on the team.

Tre Flowers competed as a safety at the combine but looks every bit a cornerback. He’s 6-3 and 200lbs with 34 inch arms. He ran a 4.45 forty and managed a 34.5 inch vertical and a 10-2 broad. He’s long and lean and as soon as he started working out in Indianapolis, he just looked like a Seahawks cornerback project.

Dorian O’Daniel is a skull collector on special teams. He’s not the biggest (6-0, 223lbs) or the fastest (4.61) but he ran an excellent 4.07 short shuttle and a 6.64 three cone. These short area tests are vital for linebackers (highlighted here) and O’Daniel found a way to make plays for Clemson in 2017 (11.5 TFL’s, two interceptions, two touchdowns).

Jordan Thomas is 6-0 and 187lbs and has 32 inch arms. He only ran a 4.64 forty but he became only the fifth player since 2010 to run a sub-four second short shuttle (3.94) with 32 inch arms (joining Kevin King, Byron Jones, Tye Smith and DeAndre Elliott). His short shuttle (6.28) is the fastest in 10 years at the combine by an enormous 0.16 seconds. Thomas has some issues but there’s a lot to work with here.

Round seven
Natrell Jamerson (S, Wisconsin) & Chase Edmonds (RB, Fordham)

Wisconsin’s Natrell Jamerson is another fantastic special teams player. Seattle’s special teams wasn’t good enough last year for many reasons and I’ve deliberately looked for players who excelled in that area. Jamerson can return kicks and is an excellent gunner. He had 20 special teams tackles on kickoff coverage. He’s also rangy, running a 4.40 at 5-10 and 201lbs. Jamerson added an impressive 25 reps on the bench press (pretty incredible at his weight) plus a 35.5 inch vertical and 10-0 broad.

Yesterday Tony Pauline reported the Seahawks sent a number of people to watch Chase Edmonds perform at his pro day:

Fordham running back Chase Edmonds stood on most of his combine numbers but looked terrific in position drills, especially catching the ball, for the 18 teams who were on hand. Edmonds ran more than a dozen routes coming out of the backfield as well as lining up as a receiver. He did re-run the 3 cone (6.89s) and short shuttle (4.00s).

The Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons sent multiple people to watch Edmonds’ workout and the running back spent time with the New York Jets, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.

Edmonds is smaller than they’ve drafted previously (5-9, 205lbs) but he’s also reasonably explosive (34 inch vertical, 10-2 broad). It could indicate they are looking for a complimentary back of this size. For what it’s worth, Ronald Jones II is also 205lbs. Perhaps if they don’t get Jones II they’ll look for a similar runner?

No offensive linemen!?!
If it doesn’t happen early, it might not happen. At the end of the day, they have a collection of highly drafted linemen already. Unless they’re planning major changes to the line, they might be looking to fill one or two spots only. And they might want a more veteran-influenced O-line. So it’s possible they address this next week and focus on other areas. It’s not necessarily what I would do — but they’re limited with their solitary early pick.

What else could it mean for free agency?

— If they plan to draft Ronald Jones II, potentially they could pair him with a bigger veteran like Carlos Hyde or Jonathan Stewart.

— Re-sign Bradley McDougald or consider adding Eric Reid.

— Sign a receiver (Marqise Lee?) and a veteran tight end (or re-sign Luke Willson). They might add a big target too.

— Find some veteran D-line options. With the freed cap room they might be able to retain Sheldon Richardson but they might prefer the 2019 comp pick. Luckily this is one area where they have a proven track record (Clemons, Bennett, Avril, Clark, Jordan). If Ndamukong Suh is cut, would the Seahawks look at him? It wouldn’t cost a comp pick.

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Before we get started, I was invited onto the Field Gulls podcast yesterday to discuss the combine. Check it out below. Plus if you missed it over the weekend, don’t forget to listen to the Seahawkers Podcast appearance from Sunday (click here).

Two quick notes before we get into the mock…

— This draft is going to provide much better value in rounds 2-3 than it is in round one. I’m using this projection to emphasise this. I suspect teams will be happy to trade out of the back-end of round one and might be willing to take relatively cheap deals to do so.

— The Seahawks trade down from #18 here and take an offensive linemen. However, this is on the basis they manage to accumulate extra picks in rounds 2-3. There are mixed reports doing the rounds. Jason La Canfora recently said he expects Earl Thomas to be traded, while Ian Rapoport is saying Thomas is staying in Seattle. If the Seahawks don’t trade Thomas (their only realistic chance to gain extra picks in rounds 2-3) I think it’s much more likely their first pick will end up being a running back, either in the late first round or early second round.

Updated first round mock draft

This mock draft contains several trades.

#1 Cleveland — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
#2 Cleveland (trade w/NYG) — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
#3 Buffalo (trade w/Ind) — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
#4 NY Giants (trade w/Cle, via Hou) — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
#5 Arizona (trade w/Den) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
#6 NY Jets — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
#8 Miami (trade w/Chi) — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
#9 San Francisco — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
#10 Oakland — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
#11 Chicago (trade w/Mia) — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
#12 Cincinnati — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
#13 Washington — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
#14 Green Bay — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
#15 Denver (trade w/Ari) — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
#16 LA Rams (trade w/Bal) — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
#17 LA Chargers — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
#18 Atlanta (trade w/Sea) — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
#19 Dallas — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
#20 Detroit — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
#21 Indianapolis (trade w/Buf) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
#22 Indianapolis (trade w/Buf, via KC) — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
#23 Baltimore (trade w/LAR) — D.J. Moore (WR, Maryland)
#24 Carolina — Justin Reid (S, Stanford)
#25 NY Giants (trade w/NO) — Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
#26 Seattle (trade w/Atl) — Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
#27 NY Jets (trade w/NO) — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
#28 Pittsburgh — Harold Landry (DE, Boston College)
#29 Jacksonville — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
#30 Minnesota — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
#31 Cincinnati (trade w/NE) — Will Hernandez (G, UTEP)
#32 Tampa Bay (trade w/Phi) — Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)

The trades…

Cleveland trades #4 & #33 to New York (Giants) for #2
Having taken Saquon Barkley with the top pick, the Browns make a deal to secure their preferred quarterback at #2.

Buffalo trades #21 & #22 & a 2019 pick to Indianapolis for #3
The Bills pull off a blockbuster move to go up and get Sam Darnold.

Arizona trades #15, #47 & a 2019 pick to Denver for #5
The Cardinals miss out on the top quarterbacks in free agency so make a big move, trading away their first picks in 2018 and 2019 plus a second rounder to land Josh Rosen.

Miami trades #11 & #73 to Chicago for #8
Adam Gase goes and gets his quarterback, with lingering doubts about Ryan Tannehill’s ability to stay healthy.

LA Rams trade #23, #87 & #195 to Baltimore for #16
The Rams are being aggressive and want to win now. They move up to get Derwin James and find a willing trade partner in Baltimore.

Atlanta trades #26, #90 and #200 to Seattle for #18
The Falcons want an interior defensive lineman and go up to get Maurice Hurst (Star Loutlelei was taken at #13 despite having a similar medical concern at the combine). The Seahawks want to move down and get a needed third round pick.

New York Giants trade #33 & #102 to Tennessee for #25
The Titans don’t like the look of the cornerback or linebacker options so take a deal to move down. The Giants trade up to get a lead runner in Kerryon Johnson.

New York Jets trade #37, #107 & #179 to New Orleans for #27
The Jets are after a center and move up to draft Billy Price.

Cincinnati trades #46 & #77 to New England for #31
The Bengals have to draft an offensive lineman early. Will Hernandez was one of the standout performers at the combine.

Denver trades #38 & #108 to Philadelphia for #32
The Buccs make a minor deal to move up four spots and select Derrius Guice before the end of the first round.

Tomorrow I’ll be publishing a seven-round mock draft for the Seahawks.

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