Devon Still could be a legitimate three-technique in Seattle
Few players boosted their stock like Devon Still in 2011. Previously an inconsistent defensive tackle with sloppy technique, he dominated the Big-10 as a fifth year senior. He’s the most likely three-technique option for the Seahawks in round one this year – probably edging LSU’s Michael Brockers – and should leave the board within the top-20.
Last year Still showed he was good at maintaining his position at the P.O.A. but he simply didn’t get enough penetration on a consistent basis. Too often that he was leaning into blocks and leading with the shoulder. You’ll see in the first video below (2010 tape vs Florida & Alabama) how he struggled with balance and spent far too much time on the turf. In the Florida tape at 5:10, as soon as he turns his right shoulder to the blocker he’s led to the ground and essentially tackled out of the play. This happened far too often last year and it’s good to see he’s made the necessary technical adjustments. He’s now a lot more square when attacking blockers and the results were obvious – 17 tackles for a loss in 2011.
There also wasn’t much evidence of a club or swim and when he was engaged and struggling to shed a block, there’s rarely a counter. He really looked like a boom or bust type of guy – sometimes knifing the hole and causing a splash, but most of the time he’d be blocked out and have very little impact. The Seahawks don’t have explosive pass rushers among their interior line, but they have active tackles who eat space due to their size and play with a relentless nature. My concern was that Still wasn’t enough of an upgrade as a pass rusher to compensate a little on the run-defense.
Clearly he made significant strides in 2011 as you can see in the second two videos (vs Illinois & Alabama). Still attacks the A and B gap relentlessly, exploding off the snap and exploiting any hesitation among the interior lineman. He’s very difficult to block when you’re not head on, and Still’s power and explosion to attack space on zone scheme’s flashed time and time again. He completely dominated Illinois from start to finish and gave Alabama’s offensive line more problems than any other opponent I saw in 2011.
There’s better handwork on show, including an effective swim move to avoid blocks and work into the backfield. He consistently folds the pocket affording outside pressure on pass plays, but against the run he’s almost immovable and most of the time will maintain position to force runs outside. When I watched Penn State last year, they didn’t appear to blitz as much in the second half of the season -I put that down to Still’s influence. I spent some time considering whether he’d be a better fit in the 3-4 as a five technique. While I still think he can adjust to that role (and if San Diego are willing to consider Corey Liuget for that role, anything is possible), for me Still is more suited to playing at the three-technique. You want him abusing the A & B, he’ll perform best against a tackle with size who clogs the gap between the center and left guard drawing more than one block. Although Cleveland may be out of range at #22 (and may be concentrating on offense anyway) Still would be an ideal partner for last year’s first round pick Phil Taylor.
That’s not to say he couldn’t find a home in Seattle alongside Brandon Mebane. Pete Carroll knows the value of a productive three technique – he nearly always had one at USC and it’s integral to this scheme. At the moment Seattle’s pressure comes almost exclusively from Chris Clemons and for the long term – finding a serviceable three-tech is surely second on the list of needs after franchise quarterback. Last year the Seahawks had Alan Branch playing the role, with Anthony Hargrove spelling on specific downs. The direction of the team’s defense could swing heavily on April 26th depending on who the Seahawks pick. A guy like Still would maintain the base 4-3 look and afford Seattle a penetrative interior force on standard downs. Keeping Branch and investing in an edge rusher such as Courtney Upshaw would move the team closer to a hybrid 3-4, maintaining size up front but relying on outside pressure.
There are some things that he has to keep working on. Still has a tendency to play high and although I’ve not seen this as much in the 2011 tape, last year he appeared to be susceptible to cut blocks and didn’t protect his legs well at all. Against Alabama he was consistently cut to the ground – violently so by Trent Richardson on one play. I’d like to see him work to get bigger in the lower half of his body. Still is top heavy and will need greater power from his legs at the next level. He also doesn’t have much of a bubble and looks more like an oversized end than an interior rusher. Another slight concern is his injury history. While he’s fought back to enjoy three productive years as a red-shirt senior – he tore an ACL in 2007 and suffered a broken ankle in 2008. He mised two 2011 regular season games and also missed his final opportunity to appear for Penn State with a turf toe injury, a problem which also stopped him attending the Senior Bowl work-outs this week. Could he make it to Mobile? Maybe, it’s hard to tell how serious the injury is but many expected him to attend. If he is healthy enough to compete, it could be a missed opportunity to boost his stock.
In terms of the other players available at this position in the past, Still grades lower than Liuget and some of the more high profile players available in previous years. I suspect the Seahawks will have players higher on their board (Upshaw?) – even despite the importance of the three-technique position. However, it’d surprise me if he wasn’t at least on Seattle’s radar as a possible target at #11 or #12.
When I posted a critical view on Melvin Ingram last week, it instigated a heated debate as to whether he fits into Seattle’s scheme. Clearly, a lot of people out there like the guy enough to draft him with the #11 or #12 pick. I’m not one of those people, but so far it’s been a health discussion. By all accounts Ingram had a fine work out at the Senior Bowl and his stock is gaining momentum. I suspect he’ll get a sack or two in the game on Saturday. He’s a pin your ears back type of pass rusher, a guy who may be ineffective and even frustrating for three quarters of the game but will then makes a sack or two late on.
While the Seahawks want to improve their largely anaemic pass rush, I can only see Ingram in a diluted role. Seattle has only one reliable pass rusher who has performed consistently well in the last two years and that’s Chris Clemons. While he is a free agent in 2013 and already 30-years-old, finding a long term replacement is not an absolute necessity at this point. The Seahawks need to find a compliment to Clemons, not a replacement. Pete Carroll testified in his end of season press conference that he wants to spend his first round pick on someone who is a constant contributor right away. Ingram’s role in year one (and maybe year two) would be to replace Raheem Brock on obvious passing downs and maybe kick inside occasionally (also in 3rd and long situations). You’re also banking on Clemons digressing in 2012, because if he records double-digit sacks again in 2012 I’m not sure you chase him out of town just because he’s turned 31. After all, Jared Allen is only a few months younger than Clemons.
I highlighted Courtney Upshaw yesterday as someone who could be a better fit given the circumstances. He has superb recognition skills, he’s a contributing force against the run and will be able to rush the passer in a lot of different packages. Drafting Upshaw would essentially push Seattle’s hybrid defense closer to the 3-4 on certain downs than the current 4-3. It’s still largely the same ideology with the same personnel on the field – but with Upshaw at WLB yet playing a lot of downs at the LOS across from Clemons. This would give the team a lot more balance in terms of a pass rush, while also improving the teams run defense. It’s not impossible for Ingram to play a similar role but Upshaw is vastly superior defending the run (perhaps the key identity for this defense), he’s harder to move, he has the ability to read and react with superb pursuit and he has greater experience on underneath coverage. Ingram is a better speed pass rusher, but I think the other qualities are strong enough to separate the two in terms of what the Seahawks are looking for with the #11 or #12 pick.
Ingram is a fun player to watch, but I also think he’s a little overrated. Below you’ll find a breakdown of the Nebraska tape (see video above) and he’s largely ineffective for most of the game. Upshaw is a master of leverage – he’ll get under the pad level and drive you backwards with a superb bull rush. He has violent hands and does a great job keeping lineman off his frame. Ingram might be a more athletic player in terms of foot speed and mobility, but he’s far too upright and when a tackle or interior lineman gets underneath his pad level, it’s over. Look how many times Nebraska’s #50 gets into his body and dominates Ingram. He had no answer against the left tackle – he couldn’t beat him on the edge for speed. If he engaged he couldn’t get off the block, he couldn’t bull rush the guy. You see in the video at the end of the game how he almost takes himself out of the play by standing off the tackle as if he’s saying, ‘I can’t beat you – I’m trying to work out why.’ South Carolina’s staff pretty much moved him permanently into the middle on a three man front because he had no success off the edge.
As an interior rusher he didn’t achieve a great deal more and couldn’t get away from the center/guard double teams – often being stoned at the LOS. You could argue he was a liability against the run overall. He had one productive play on a spin move and you have to give him credit for having mastered that one move. When I interviewed Hall of Famer Richard Dent last year I asked him what young defensive lineman should do when approaching the league. Dent believed young lineman should concentrate on having one move you can perfect, that you can keep going back to even on a rough day. Ingram has that in his locker.
He’s also a very busy, compact player who will get sacks at the next level. The thing is, I’m not convinced he’ll ever be more than a specialist rusher who ends up getting his production on third down. Let’s not forget – even as a fourth year junior that’s the role he had with the Gamecocks, before taking on more snaps as a fifth year senior. There’s some value to that, of course there is (see: Aldon Smith), but I’m looking at Green Bay who struggled on third downs most of the year and need a boost to compliment an elite roster. I’m looking at Baltimore who could add another piece to their elite defense. The Seahawks – as much as the defense has grown in the last 24 months – need more than a specialist. San Francisco spelled Aldon Smith because they already had guys like Justin Smith on the roster. Seattle needs a cornerstone – not a younger version of the 2010 Raheem Brock.
Onto the tape…
0:21 – Ineffective rush, too easily pushed over by the left tackle and Taylor Martinez has a clean pocket to throw a touchdown.
0:27 – Blocked out of the play by the right tackle. Doesn’t show enough drive to push the blocker backwards and once he’s allowed hands onto his frame, he can’t get free.
0:32 – Not sure what the plan was here, he shows inside but the tackle forces him to the outside. Again, once he’s allowed the tackle to get hands on his frame, he can’t disengage.
0:47 – Driven outside by the right tackle and as with 0:21, loses his footing.
0:54– Double teamed by the running back and full back as the tackle dips inside. Cornerback blitz isn’t picked up and leads to a sack, but Ingram is ineffective.
1:00 – Cannot disengage again, is too upright and doesn’t drive into the blocker. Dominated by the left tackle here.
1:08 – Three man front, Ingram is completely stoned by the guard and center working together. The rest of the defensive line and a blitzing linebacker get into the backfield, but Ingram struggles against the double team and remains at the LOS. To his credit, he sticks with the play and completes the tackle that stops the screen pass.
1:18 – Jarred at the LOS by the tight end who jabs at Ingram and then runs into space. It’s enough to take him out of the play. Ingram has to take advantage when lined up with a tight end.
2:10 – Again far too upright and allows the blocker to get into his pads and drive him out of this run play. The left tackle chirps away at the end of the play because so far, he has Ingram’s number. Playing at 6-2 and with a squat frame he has to do a better job with leverage.
2:30 – Superb pass protection again from the left tackle, dropping back and again getting hands on Ingram to basically finish the block. Perfect protection leads to a big pass completion from the quarterback.
2:46 – Does a better job against the tight end this time, dipping inside and then spinning out of the block to stop Martinez on the run option. Nice move.
3:01 – Again struggles playing inside against the guard and center. He doesn’t have enough power at the P.O.A. to drive through this situation and working against interior double teams he struggles badly. He’s the one defensive lineman stuck at the LOS while the others rush.
3:22 – Handled by the left tackle. Does a better job getting hands on the blocker and forcing him back a little, but he doesn’t beat the guy to press the quarterback.
3:30 – Kicks inside and is driven backwards by the interior lineman on this running play. Nebraska ran the ball right in his direction and he’s forced back several yards.
3:48– Left tackle seals the edge and this could’ve been kicked outside for a big gain. Ingram once again ineffective.
4:23 – Struggles badly – once again – when moved inside and defending the run. He cannot get away from interior double teams and it creates a huge hole for Martinez to run through the middle.
4:38 – Clear evidence that Ingram is struggling because he’s tentative to attack the left tackle here and basically takes himself out of the play. He’s over thinking the rush and trying to find out how he can beat the guy.
4:50 – The first evidence of an effective rush from a three-man front, where he uses his favorite spin move to get away from the left guard and force some pressure. Martinez sacks himself after the initial rush from Taylor, but Ingram was also closing in.
5:06 – Suddenly he’s on a role, abusing the center again from a three man front to record the sack. The interior lineman is outclassed here by Ingram and has no chance.
5:20 – Yet… when Nebraska go back to double teaming the interior, they take Ingram out of the play.
5:28 – Tries to rush the interior again but the spin move doesn’t work this time and he’s stopped at the line and jolted well out of the play.
Courtney Upshaw could be Seattle's first choice in round one... if they
Depending on your level of faith in the internet, Pete Carroll really likes Courtney Upshaw. An anonymous Alabama fan going under the moniker of ‘8:16am’ supposedly entered an impromptu game of basketball with the Seahawks Head Coach during Senior Bowl week in Mobile. The conversation turned to the Crimson Tide players available this year, where Carroll supposedly revealed his admiration for Upshaw:
“He thinks he is a better player than Von miller. He said Von was more athletic, but Upshaw is stronger, more technically sound and doesn’t have weaknesses.”
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that this story is true, given that it’s totally believable that a.) Carroll was shooting some hoops and b.) he didn’t sprint out of the building at the prospect of communicating with a member of the public. Even so, I’ll leave it up to you to decide whether there’s any truth to this.
I felt obliged last night to go back and review some Alabama tape, so I skimmed through the game against Auburn last year and the two most recent meetings against LSU. My opinion on Upshaw has shifted several times, initially from one of disinterest because I couldn’t logically place him in Seattle’s defense. I became more intrigued when watching the Florida game this season where he stood out and then watched him closely against Arkansas, Auburn and those two games against LSU. After further review, I felt confident enough to make Upshaw the one player I’ve mocked to the Seahawks on multiple occasions. Even so, I still couldn’t place exactly what his best position was. Is he a 4-3 left end? A 3-4 OLB? Can he logically move to outside backer in a 4-3 with a lot of rush duties similar to Von Miller?
I’ve charted every play he had an impact in for the three games I watched last night – and I’ve come away convinced he’s going to be an early pick. In a season without a lot of elite defensive talent, someone is going to draft this guy at the top of round one. In my most recent mock I projected he could go #8 overall to Miami to play OLB, so I was slightly surprised to see their announcement today that they’ll switch to a 4-3. That shouldn’t exclude Upshaw from being an option for the Dolphins, who suddenly have to find a 4-3 edge rusher as a main priority. I wonder if they have the cash to compete in the Mario Williams sweepstakes? If the Dolphins don’t take Upshaw, then Buffalo (also possibly moving to a 4-3) and Kansas City could show real interest. Being the #11 or #12 pick should be his floor.
Here’s what I saw on tape and why I think he’s a real option as a pass-rushing linebacker for the Seahawks. For starters, his recognition skills are elite. In the two meetings with LSU and Cam Newton/Auburn, he came up against a lot of run-option. Not only did he show top-end instinct to react to the ball carrier, he also consistently drew the quarterback on the pitch and then adjusted to the runner – essentially taking both opponents out of the play. You see real awarness and athleticism when he tackles the pitch and I’ve not seen anyone comparable with Upshaw here. He showed fantastic awareness to react to screens and reverses and while he’s not an elite athlete, his pursuit skills more than make up for it. It’s incredible how often when teams tried reverse plays and other gimmicks it was Upshaw making the tackle.
He’s only 6-1 and around 270lbs, so he’s not got the ideal length for an edge rusher. However, the guy just ‘gets‘ leverage. He will consistently attack a lineman with great pad level and drive players into the backfield. He has a deceptive second effort when trying to beat blocks, dropping a shoulder and seemingly giving the impression he’s beaten before bursting by a tackle to make the play. He’ll disengage with violent hands and rarely gets absorbed by even the biggest lineman. Despite not having the longest arms, he does a fine job keeping blockers away from his body so that he’s able to dip inside or burst around the edge. Upshaw’s thick set is comparable to a small three-technique and he has similar skills. He’s never likely to move inside at his size, but it’s funny how the hand use, the bubble and the strength are all comparable to an interior lineman. The guy bull rushes like he was born in Pamplona.
For a team like Seattle that wants to shut down an opponents runing game, Upshaw is going to make it really difficult to run on the left side when he’s placed next to Red Bryant. Perhaps even more of an advantage though is the ability to spell Bryant a little more and maybe even kick him inside, knowing you can use Upshaw as a pure power end on more orthodox four-man sets. As great as Bryant has been for this team the last two years, there’s going to be big advantages on first and second down when the defense is able to press from both sides. At linebacker you’ll be giving up some coverage ability because he’s never going to be able to stick with top-end slot receivers and tight ends (he worked predominantly on underneath coverage at Alabama) but the WILL position is designed to be more of an attacking threat. Seattle has enough range at the SAM and MIKE (if they keep Hawthorne) to accommodate a player like Upshaw. In those sets the defense will have more of a 3-4 feel to it, but that’s not such a bad thing as discussed earlier this week.
I also see Upshaw as the kind of guy who will make 4-5 key plays in a season. Not big plays, key plays. Whether that’s a crucial interception to end the game, a sack or a forced fumble – there will be a handful of games at the end of the year where people are talking about Courtney Upshaw’s performance on the ride home. And hey – the Seahawks are building a defense that is filled with attitude. Upshaw wouldn’t just fit into the brooding attitude that’s already part of this team, he’d take it a stage further.
There aren’t a lot of stand-out defensive options for the Seahawks in this class. I like both Devon Still and Michael Brockers, but I’m not convinced either are the missing three-technique this team is looking for. Drafting a guy like Upshaw will improve the front seven as Pete Carroll is planning. You’re getting an 8-10 sack guy who can become a focal point on the defense for the next ten years. He’ll be the kind of player that is permanently talked about as ‘under rated’, when people suddenly realise they talk about him so much that couldn’t possibly be the case. People have compared him to LaMarr Woodley – I’m not sure he’ll bring the same rush impact as Woodley in Pittsburgh (positions and duties will be different), but his all-round influence could certainly be similar.
What’s more, the guy is used to high standards at Alabama. He’s used to winning. That’s not a bad thing to have on a growing defense that has already achieved quite a lot given it’s starting point in 2010.
Last year I argued – quite strongly – against Von Miller being a top-five pick. This wasn’t because I didn’t think he had elite speed and a very attractive skill set – I often remarked that he was the defensive player I’ve enjoyed watching the most in the last few years of writing this blog. My concern was his likely transition to linebacker, that he would have to adapt to different responsibilities and that could ultimately limit what he does best – rush the passer. His size made it unlikely he would play permanently at the LOS, so would he be able to have the same impact at OLB in a 4-3? I’m always happy to admit when I’ve made a bad call and kudos to Denver and Miller for making it work. The biggest concern I have for Upshaw is being able to make the same move, to the same position and role. Yet this is all about a learning process and acknowledging when you’ve made a mistake. Having misjudged Von Miller’s potential impact, perhaps Upshaw deserves a greater investment of faith this time?
It would not surprise me at all if those internet rumors prove to be true and that Upshaw is near the top of Seattle’s board. He should be, possibly right behind the top two quarterbacks considering they don’t need a left tackle or running back (if they re-sign Marshawn Lynch). The only question is whether he’ll still be on the board at #11 or #12. I suspect not. If he is, then you could be looking at the next big piece in Seattle’s defense.
Below I’ve included a series of videos featuring ‘every snap’ tape
Fletcher Cox is a little bit like a runaway train. He’s fast, he’s powerful – but also a little off balance and out of control. For a guy playing at 6-4 and 295lbs he’s incredibly athletic and carries his frame well. Sometimes he looks like an unpolished version of Cameron Jordan, with a similar compact frame despite playing at nearly 300lbs yet without the same kind of explosion when playing off the edge.
He’s strong at the point of attack and will consistently get his hands on an offensive lineman and drive them into the pocket. You can see in the tape the amount of times he’s in the backfield through sheer brutality, even if he’s not creating a splash play. Whether he lines up on the edge in a three-man front or inside at tackle, he’s got a productive bull rush and he should be able to cope against the greater physical demands at the next level. Unfortunately he’s not as succesful using his hands to avoid blocks and there’s no real evidence of an effective swim move. Most of his pressure comes from physically outmatching his opponent – especially with that bull rush – which is a shame considering his natural athleticism lends itself to mixing it up with a few finesse moves. He has 7.5 sacks in two years at Mississippi State but even when he’s not the guy making the play, he’ll often shut down zones with pressure.
Cox keeps his feet moving when engaged and shows a decent punch to drive back lineman. He rarely gives up and often makes tackles after the ball is thrown away from the LOS through sheer perseverance. He’s not got the ideal size to act as a stout run stuffer and while he penetrates fairly well playing inside, his greatest aspect comes with his athleticism. He appears more ideally suited to the five-technique, although as mentioned he lacks the kind of explosive edge talent we saw from Jordan at California.
His ‘all-out’ style makes him a bit unbalanced and you’ll see in the tape a few occassions where he loses his footing. Sometimes it only takes minimal contact to send him to the turf and he could probably do a better job of being a more controlled rusher. Can he tone it down a notch to avoid taking himself out of certain plays too early? He’s a bit high at times and loses leverage when lineman get under his pad level. On some of the occassions where he did lose balance, he appeared to be jolted from a slightly upright position because when sprinting at full pace he keeps his back straight.
In a class lacking a lot of great defensive lineman, there’s a chance Cox can really boost his stock with a good combine. He should interest teams using the 3-4 and the likes of Green Bay and New England should be looking at this guy late in the first round. Could he fit for the Seahawks? Certainly he plays with the edge Seattle’s front office is looking for on defense and his brawler style should ensure he’s not a liability even when used on first downs at tackle. He could also play some five-technique snaps without giving too much away against the run, something maybe the Seahawks should consider even though clearly they like what Red Bryant offers at the position. Cox could be a player to monitor in the second round.
Tape vs South Carolina & Wake Forest supplied by JMPasq
In the last week we’ve been discussing Brock Osweiler as a possible round one pick and had a look at his tape vs Illinois. We’ve already looked at four other games (USC, Utah, Oregon and Boise State) and I wanted to run through what I liked/disliked about this performance. Aside from the obvious positives (arm strength, ability to make difficult throws into tight windows, mobility) I’ve seen enough evidence now that he can make more than one progression, that he is capable of feeling pressure, that although he does take risks he’s not careless with the football and his turnovers are rarely reckless and that he’s willing to take a hit to make a key completion on a developing route.
There are several things he needs to work on too. For example, he really only has two levels of touch – one of which is a pure fast ball. I like the trajectory and air he gets on the drilled throws but I’d like to see a greater range here – so that when he needs to place a throw in between two defensive backs he’ll make it. He’s a bit hesitant sometimes to make a decision and although he received very little protection in the game above (and suffered through a series of bad drops) he was also directly responsible for some avoidable sacks. Although he has a good deep out, I’ve not seen him throw deep down the middle for a big completion, but without all-22 tape it’s hard to see if teams take this option away because of his arm strength.
I don’t think he’s quite the ‘project’ that some people think and because he has such pure natural ability as a passer, he’ll be able to contribute quickly in a scaled down playbook. Everything about him is unique – especially the frame and the release – but I kind of like that. One of the key things I look for in a quarterback is an ability to improvise and make plays when things don’t go according to plan and Osweiler has shown he can do that. He might not reach a pro-bowl level as a rookie, far from it in fact, but I suspect he’ll be able to come in and make enough plays to avoid becoming a weekly hindrance. Considering Seattle’s starting quarterbacks have combined for 26 regular season touchdown passes in the last two years, it’s hardly a stretch to believe he can improve upon a 13-touchdown average.
As we’ve started to discuss Brock Osweiler more on the blog, people have started to say, “I’d take this guy in round two, but not at #11 or #12.” Personally, I think you’re going to be very fortunate to draft a player like this beyond round one. The Seahawks are never going to be in a position to draft a quarterback the majority of people feel ‘comfortable’ with while they’re winning even seven games in a season. If you’re waiting on Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III, Matt Stafford etc etc – all of those players have been drafted – or will be drafted – within the top handful of picks. The Seahawks have been built to keep progressing, to move forward under Pete Carroll’s vision. If you want to draft a quarterback for the long haul yet be consistently picking deeper in the draft, be prepared to eventually take a chance on someone like Brock Osweiler.
He has a lot of first round tools and while admittedly there is also a degree of inexperience, why are we so afraid to fail? This team hasn’t drafted a quarterback in round one since 1993, but some people cringe at the idea of a toolsy quarterback with big-time potential – yet a similarly raw defensive player or offensive lineman will get a collective thumbs up. It’s not a case of drafting any old quarterback – which is why I’ve been very critical of players like Ryan Tannehill and Landry Jones this year. Brock Osweiler is better than those two players on many different levels.
Before we get into the tape-breakdown, I’ve added a selection of links to check out for more on Brock Osweiler:
“He is a good athlete who chose the Sun Devils over an offer to play basketball at Gonzaga, and Osweiler shows the ability to buy time in the pocket and even pick up yards with his legs when given the opportunity. He’ll never have the elite pocket mobility of a quarterback like Drew Brees, but given his frame and above-average athleticism Osweiler is good enough in that area.
“Taller quarterbacks naturally have longer deliveries as well, and while Osweiler’s accuracy will be affected at times by over-striding, he has a unique release that gets good results. He has a unique release that reminds you a bit of Philip Rivers, but because his arm is strong he can get away with looking a bit like a dart-thrower. Osweiler can be accurate when his lower body is sound, puts enough zip on the ball to fit it into tight spots, and he can vary his launch points to account for hands in passing windows and the positioning of defenders in coverage.”
I’ve broken down some of the plays from the Illinois tape (see above) and listed a few thoughts on each with the time they appear in bold:
0:08 – Instinctive play thrown deliberately low to make it hard to defend. Essentially, his receiver is catching the ball or nobody is. The defensive back probably would’ve jumped the route had it been chest-high, so that’s a good decision from the quarterback.
0:14– Lingers too long on his intended target and needed to move to a different option or throw it away. Having lingered on the hot read, he can’t move back inside into traffic to extend a play. A completely avoidable sack.
0:48– Evidence that he is willing to progress through reads. Osweiler looks to his left, then down the middle before progressing to the deep right. He rejects all options and throws incomplete to his left. It’s hard to tell without all-22 tape if any of his downfield options were open, but he visibly made multiple reads here.
0:56 – Good patience to let the inside route develop and an accurate pass for a nice gain.
1:04– Good play action into a shoulder pump to the flare, before looking deep right and throwing a nice pass that gave his receiver a chance to score a touchdown in single coverage. Should’ve been caught.
1:22 – Stays composed despite the blind side pressure. He understands where the soft spot in the defense is and took what was on offer. An easy completion for the touchdown, but he capitalised on the opportunity.
1:45– Free play with the offside penalty, so Osweiler throws deep down the left sideline and again puts the ball in an area for his receiver to make a play. Textbook throw.
1:54– QB draw for a decent gain, shows off Osweiler’s mobility. He’s a long way off being considered a threat as a runner, but he moves well for his size.
2:13– Bad interior protection and good defense, Osweiler has two seconds to make a play. He’s tackled as he throws and the ball rather fortunately hits a lineman on the back and is deflected into the hands of an Illinois defender. It goes down as an interception.
2:41– Shows good presence to step into the pocket and throw downfield, but the two receivers get in each other’s way.
2:54– Very accurate pass with perfect trajectory and pace, hitting the receiver in-stride for a first down.
3:29 – Makes two reads but needs to feel the pressure and make a decision. Either get the ball out or throw it away. Protection isn’t good again here, but that was another avoidable sack.
3:45– Avoids contact in the pocket and throws downfield for a completion. Wasn’t distracted by the pressure and managed to avoid the sack.
3:54– Osweiler knew he was going to get hammered by a defensive lineman, but stayed tall to deliver a catchable pass. Should’ve been a completion, but credit to the quarterback for again making a brave throw.
4:08 – Possibly the best play in the tape. This is what the NFL is looking for – great footwork, keeping the play alive and buying that extra time to deliver a big-time throw on third down for a huge completion. First round-level quarterback play.
4:26 – Nice pump fake down the middle before throwing a fade to the back of the end zone. This looked like a touchdown to me on the replay, but it wasn’t given. Accurate throw, nice spiral. Would’ve been a great play had it stood, but still a good throw.
4:53 – Needs to read that this screen play isn’t on. The call broke down and he needs to get out of that – ASU lost yards for no reason.
5:00– Stands tall in the pocket but throws off his back foot and floats a pass to the right hand side. He couldn’t transfer any weight to his front foot due to the rush, but losing that extra yard of pace on the football forced the incomplete pass. Still – not many players can get close to that throw leaning backwards.
5:14– Accurate throw down the middle of the field. On the replay we clearly see this is Osweiler’s second read having looked initially to the left, but he spots the separation from his middle-of-the-field option and makes a big completion.
5:30 – Again a little indecisive here and too tentative. He needs to make a decision when a play collapses like this – he had a check down to the right and didn’t need to take the sack.
5:36 – Play action, two reads and another throw down the middle dissecting two defenders for a first down. Nice play.
6:10– Good work to extend the play, make a difficult throw and take no risks passing low. Pass interference flag gets the first down, but kudos to Osweiler for avoiding the sack in the first place.
6:21 – Nothing he could do here, the offensive line collapses and he takes a sack.
6:27– Deflected pass intercepted. Low trajectory on the throw tipped by a defensive tackle and picked off. The ball leaves Osweiler’s hand above his helmet so it wasn’t due to a side-arm motion. The pressure again collapses the pocket and Osweiler was throwing inside and short therefore not getting much height on the ball. It’s hard to pin too much blame on the quarterback here.
6:42– Great footwork to extend the play, should’ve been caught for a first down. Excellent quarterback play.
6:52– Developing route but Osweiler hasn’t got enough time due to the pocket collapsing yet again.
7:23– Possibly the ugliest play of the night where he lazily tosses a hopeful, floated pass downfield. What is he seeing here to make that throw, let alone put such weak velocity on the ball? Bad play.
7:46– QB draw from the 14-yard line, Osweiler actually has to make 19-yards to get the touchdown. Further evidence of his athletic ability despite a 6-8, 240lbs frame. He bursts through a hole in the line and shows the ability to shift up the gears.
8:13– Again has very little time in the pocket but spends too long going through his progressions. He has three seconds to make the call. Although the left tackle is dominated off the edge by Whitney Mercilus, he needs to sense that pressure and get the ball away. It’s difficult, because he can’t throw out of bounds without being flagged. I’m more inclined to blame the weak pass protection here.
8:52 – Dropped pass, needed to be caught.
8:58 – Nice, accurate throw into traffic for a big completion.
9:14 – Two reads and checks down to the tight end for a smart completion, again taking what he’s given by the defense.
9:20– Similar play to 9:14 and puts a high touch throw into an area for the tight end to make a catch, but he drops it. Should’ve been an easy completion, good throw from Osweiler. The drop possibly cost ASU a chance to make overtime or win the game.
9:53 – Good scramble for a first down, stopping the clock. The right decision.
10:00 – Again does well to elude pressure and extend the play, bootlegs to the right and identifies the original LOS before throwing. Pass is delivered on a plate for a wide open receiver who drops it.
10:16– Under thrown deep ball, bad execution. Put the ball behind the receiver who had separation. Needed to air the ball out to the left and a missed opportunity.
10:31 – Better effort on the deep ball, just slightly over thrown.
10:40 – Throws too high on fourth down, incomplete to end the game. Good pressure from the defense again, but an off target throw that asked a lot of the receiver.
There’s a lengthy back story here. Weeden is a former all-state high-school pitcher and 2002 second round pick by the New York Yankees who also spent time with the LA Dodgers and Kansas City Royals. By 2006 he was out of Baseball due to a persistent shoulder injury, so he turned his hand to football knowing he was still eligible to play at the college level. Weeden walked onto Oklahoma State’s roster and redshirted in 2007 before making one start in 2008. A year later he took over the starting job, replacing former Seahawks scout team QB Zac Robinson. He took time to adapt to football and West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen – Weeden’s former offensive coordinator at OKSU – admitted that at first he was “too deliberate” and played like he was on the pitcher’s mound. He’s since developed into an established passer and an instantly familiar name within the college ranks.
In two years starting he’s thrown 68 touchdowns compared to just 25 interceptions, topped 4000 yards twice and this year completed 73% of his passes. If not for one bitterly disappointing defeat to Iowa State, Weeden would be preparing for the BCS Championship game right now. Instead, he has to make do with a Fiesta Bowl berth against Andrew Luck and Stanford.
There’s been a lot of talk about Weeden’s draft stock, with the age-factor always cropping up. There’s simply no getting away from the fact he’ll turn 29 in his rookie NFL season. Weeden is not going to be exempt from the same kind of learning curve experienced by most rookie quarterbacks. Oklahoma State runs a prolific passing game that basically asks the quarterback to start in the gun and still utilise a three, five or even seven step drop. By the time he’s throwing the ball, he’s often ten yards behind the LOS. This draws the pocket away from the original line creating a lot of space for underneath throws and passes to the sideline. By spreading out the receivers like they do, it almost doubles the size of the field and makes it hard to cover talented receivers like Justin Blackmon (and in the past, guys like Dez Bryant). It’s a scheme that relies on playmakers at the skill positions, good pass-protection and solid quarterback play. Over the last few years, OKSU have become quite the offensive force by mastering this way of business and Weeden has continued that tradition.
Being a mature 29-year-old adult who’s worked within pro-sports, you would expect Weeden to be comfortable competing against teenagers in college. I expect Weeden’s age will provide some smaller benefits when he enters the NFL too because he’ll not be overwhelmed by the situation. This is a guy who’s been drafted by the Yankees, so he won’t be fazed by the challenge of playing on the big stage. However, let’s not make the mistake of assuming he’ll be ‘pro-ready’ just because he’s a little older. The system he works in at OKSU is very different and a lot less technical than anything he’ll experience in the NFL. When I’ve watched Oklahoma State – and I said the same thing when people asked about Zac Robinson – I see a scheme that scares me. In the same way that Weeden needed two years to get out of pitcher-mode, he may need the same amount of time to get up to speed with a NFL offense. He needs to learn to take snaps under center, make a quick and accurate read and deliver a pass into a crowded, tighter field. He needs to learn the concepts of play action. He needs to learn the footwork required playing within a pro-offense.
If it does take two years, suddenly you’re talking about a 31-year-old quarterback making his first start. That’s not the end of the world, but obviously it’s not ideal. Weeden has a live arm, as you’d expect from a former pitcher. He delivers the ball with good velocity and he can fit the ball into tight windows. However, he’s not the kind of player who can make up for inexperience or a lack of technical quality with brilliant physical plays. That’s another reason why I think he’d have to sit, because he’s not going to be able to ‘wing it’ early in his career.
A lot of questions raised so far would’ve limited his stock at any age. I’ve seen people argue Weeden would be a first round pick if he was in his early 20’s, but I disagree with that. Given everything I’ve discussed here I would expect a younger version to be graded solidly in round two or three with the potential to grow into a starter one day. I wouldn’t rule out Weeden being taken in round three anyway given the need for quarterbacks – if not sooner. He’s a polished quarterback in OKSU’s system, but he’ll be raw at the next level.
That said, he does make some pretty throws and the arm strength, as mentioned, is good. In the tape below from the game against Oklahoma, you’ll see a handful of quality passes. Even so, ask yourself about the situation and how the field is stretched in order to make those plays. How far behind the LOS is Weeden throwing and how has the coordinator spread his receivers?
A good example of this is at 0:32, where we see a 4WR set and one tailback split to the left. When Weeden sets to throw, he’s around 7-8 yards behind the LOS. The RB runs a checkdown route and the receiver to the left runs an inside slant to offer an underneath option. The two wide-outs to the far right just run go-routes to clear two defensive backs and Weeden looks for the slot receiver on a crossing route. It’s actually a throw that flashes his arm at it’s best – it’s quite a long-distance pass given his passing position and he shows perfect velocity even if it’s a relatively easy moving target under no pressure. However, you can see how much the field is stretched by witnessing the YAC from such a basic route. The pocket is at least six yards behind the LOS and with the 4WR set, everything is so spread out. Weeden is perfect for the system considering his arm strength and poise, but whether he can make the same plays under center in a much more compacted field is a big unknown.
Fast forward to 0:57 and you’ll see the same thing. Again it’s a 4WR set and again Weeden is taking 6-7 steps backwards despite being in the gun. The pocket moves backwards too, freeing up so much open space. He’s always got the underneath option – which he uses a lot – but he’s also got the arm strength to hit the other receivers who will consistently get open in this environment. He’s essentially a ‘fast-ball’ thrower. That may sound crude to some who expect to read a better review, but that’s how I judge the tape. In fairness, he does a good job mixing up his trajectory and he knows when he needs to put more air on the ball to find gaps. Having said that, I’m not a big fan of the way he often throws off his back foot and he could stand to add a bit more bulk to what appears a thin frame that lacks a lot of tone (he’s listed at 218lbs, but there’s room to get up to 230lbs and wear it well).
The way he currently works in the pocket could develop into something of a bad habbit. By nature, Weeden is going backwards as soon as he gets the ball. The system asks him to do it, because Robinson did the same thing from the gun. However, I wonder if Weeden’s instinct has turned into ‘move backwards’ at the sign of pressure? He drifts too much and at the next level, being a long way behind the LOS and with tighter coverage it’ll make life very difficult. There’s also a few times where I’ve noticed Weeden trusting his arm a little too much and throwing into a crowd. He often gets away with it because the arm is good enough, but there are times when he’s had multiple picks (three interceptions vs Lafayette & Iowa State).
Weeden’s arm intrigues me enough to take on the challenge, but it’s a challenge that will take time and coaching. Unfortunately, because of his age, time isn’t working in Weeden’s favor.
Ryan Lindley has some talent but there's enough concerns to temper expectations
Just before Christmas, Kip posted two excellent articles looking at later round quarterbacks that could be in play for the Seahawks. To see both pieces, click here and here. I wanted to continue this theme by taking a look at other options the front office might consider. I think it’s likely Seattle will draft a quarterback at some point, even if it’s not the top-end first rounder a lot of people are hoping for. I wanted to highlight Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State) as someone who’s drifted off the radar this season despite being one of the pre-season tips to get among the big name quarterbacks.
Back in September, Tony Pauline at SI.Com said Lindley, “could be the most underrated senior prospect in the nation.”However, a poor performance against Michigan at the end of the month led to this rethink by Pauline:
“Prior to the season I referred to San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley as one of the most underrated prospects from the senior class. After a fast start to his campaign, NFL scouts were of the same opinion. Yet Lindley faltered in Ann Arbor against Michigan one week ago, a game that was likely to be the toughest challenge he’ll face on the field this season. He completed just 48 percent of his passes and struggled to get the offense into the end zone. While this is far from the end game for the signal caller, several insiders from the scouting community have confided in me that Lindley missed a big opportunity to establish himself as one of the top senior quarterbacks available in next April’s draft.”
One of the big problems with Lindley is the low completion rate he’s endured throughout his four years starting at San Diego State. He threw over 420 passes in each season, but never topped 58% completions. In 2011 he actually recorded a career low 53%, ending with an average of just 56% overall. Teams want to see more than 60% completions, particularly if a player has had four years of solid starting time. As you’ll see in the video below, Lindley suffers from a lot of dropped passes. He’s also strikingly inconsistent, flashing definite pro-potential on several throws and just flat out missing on others.
Lindley has the size, arm and mobility that teams are looking for at the moment. Despite some negative reviews and all of the inconsistencies, he’s a player to watch as we get closer to April. At 6-4 and 230lbs he looks the part and there’s a chance he’ll impress at the Senior Bowl if he receives an invite. As a 5th year Senior, some of the mistakes are a little concerning considering he’s had plenty of time under center. He’s not raw, so scouts will study the tape and judge whether he’s capable of becoming a more rounded prospect with pro-guidance. I’ve included two pieces of game tape below – the aforementioned defeat against Michigan and the most recent New Orleans Bowl defeat to UL Lafayette.
There are a few throws here where Lindley really looks the part. Against Lafayette, look at the pass at 0:54 and the way he drops it into his receiver making sure he’s the only one who can make the completion. At 1:41 he extends the play by running to his right and doesn’t panic, before throwing a nice downfield pass to his tight end. The throw at 5:09 from deep inside his own endzone shows a lot of poise and confidence to get a difficult first down. The second touchdown pass at 6:10 is a thing of beauty – perfect touch and precision to find the back of the end zone and one of the prettiest passes you’ll see this season. The score that puts SDSU ahead with seconds to spare is also an excellent piece of quarterback play – high pressure situation, pinpoint accuracy to dissect two defenders for a touchdown.
Then you look at the throw at 2:16 where there’s an obvious breakdown somewhere and he almost throws it straight to the cornerback for a pick-six. At 4:03 he throws into thick coverage and has a pass tipped into the area that could easily have been intercepted. At 5:19 he’s basically throwing one up for grabs in a situation where it wasn’t warranted. It’s a bad read, a careless throw and should’ve led to a turnover. He follows it up with a near identical deep attempt that again could’ve been picked off. There’s nowhere near enough punch in that deep ball and throwing short from such a range is asking for trouble. By 8:18 he’s really pushing his luck with another pass that should’ve been easily taken by a defensive back. At 6:43 he has a receiver wide open for a touchdown and just has to hit him in stride but misses badly. He has to make that throw.
Against Michigan he flashes some arm strength with a nice cross-body throw at 0:10. After that though he really struggles to cope with the pressure created by the Wolverine front four. Although he doesn’t get anything like adequate protection from his offensive line, it’s visible how much the pressure impacts Lindley and he loses any level of composure and never regains any momentum. It’s hard to find many positive highlights in the game as he’s just off for most part. His sole touchdown at 4:34 asks a lot of his receiver, but a score’s a score.
When Lindley is making plays I want to say he’s the third best quarterback eligible for 2012. Then you watch one of his mistakes and you have to remember he’s a 53% passer who hasn’t taken any giant leaps as a senior. It’s worth noting he’s played for three different head coaches in four years starting and that has to have an impact on his development. In a more settled pro-environment with time to develop, could he settle down? He’s only 22 so there’s still time for him to sit for a year or two. My biggest concern, however, is that he will end up always being what we see now. In any given game he’ll make plays where you sit up and take notice, but he’ll likely follow it up with a drive-killing miss or a turnover. He needs to do a better job reading the field and judging when a pass isn’t on. Too many times defensive backs are gaining position on the receivers and under-cutting routes, only for Lindley to make a late throw anyway and almost get picked off. He only had eight interceptions for the year but it could’ve easily been more. He also needs to improve the consistency with his arm strength and get a better feel for velocity. Sometimes he takes pace off the ball when he needs to really drive it to the target, other times he’ll fire a bullet on a short range throw to his full back.
From a size, arm potential, frame and mobility stand point there’s a lot to like. There’s also enough to temper expectations and limit his stock. Having said that, if he can go to the Senior Bowl and show greater consistency and a strong arm there’s no reason why he couldn’t end up going higher than many people – including me – first thought.
This was the sixth time I’ve watched Ryan Tannehill this season, and each time I’ve gone in with an open mind. I want to be impressed enough to make the kind of ambitious first round projection others are making. It’s not happening.
The problem is, Tannehill came into the year a ‘flavor of the month’ prospect. People were looking at Texas A&M winning games with this new quarterback who had athletic and physical tools and he looked interesting. This was an opportunity to grade a guy with the benefit of a full off-seasons’ positional coaching after his switch from receiver. He had a good offensive line, some talent at wide out and some serviceable running backs. This was his time to shine.
There’s no other way of looking at it – he simply hasn’t delivered. He’s only been sacked eight times this season, which is less than Andrew Luck and only one more time than the notoriously untouched Kellen Moore. He’s still struggled and he’s been a significant part of team that continued to throw away big leads. He’s turned the ball over too many times and only dominated once against a Baylor defense ranked even lower than Washington’s.
To project Ryan Tannehill as a round one pick is to ignore a lot of the conventional wisdom that comes with making sound decisions in the draft. You’d be taking a leap of faith on his atnohleticism and background as a receiver, hoping you could polish him up to be a starting quarterback who will always be more athlete than dynamic passer. While Robert Griffin III has played beyond his athletic brilliance to look like a guy who can throw the ball around, limit turnovers, make good decisions and game changing plays – Tannehill has blown more cold than hot.
This latest game – a 27-25 defeat to a Texas team that consistently provides almost offensive threat – was a portrait of his season so far. The Aggies are in a comfortable position, but turnovers and mistakes give the Longhorns a shot and suddenly A&M have capitulated. Tannehill threw three interceptions, completed 41% of his passes and did not look like a first round prospect.
One of the things that puts me off a lot of quarterbacks in college is a dependance on the play call. When a player is reliant on everything else around him clicking into place, that’s a concern. The NFL is not a league where things run smoothly most of the time, you need to be able to improvise. A quarterback doesn’t necessarily need to make three quick and precise reads like Matt Barkley, but he does need to show the ability to make plays when things don’t go according to plan.
Landry Jones is a big culprit of this because he’s so zoned into a play call, when things go wrong he looks completely out of ideas. If a play isn’t on, he’ll try and force it anyway because the thought process goes, “this is the play call, I need to hit this receiver on this route.” Matt Barkley is probably thinking, “This is the hot read, this is the second option, this is the checkdown. What are the defense showing me? Do I need to get out of this call? Are they conceding an inside run here?”
Ryan Tannehill isn’t as restricted as Landry Jones because he’s a vastly superior athlete who should be able to extend plays at the next level. At the moment his athletic abilities are only really used on read-options and designed runs, but with good coaching you’d hope he’d be able to learn how to keep things alive given his mobility. Yet he does share a common problem with Jones and that’s how little improvisation he currently shows on tape.
On his second interception against Texas, he has a three step drop and throws without noticing the defensive back who’s gained the upper hand in coverage. Barkley and Luck see that and quickly go to option two, to the checkdown or just back out of the play. Tannehill throws the ball and it’s picked off for a touchdown going the other way. If you’re drafting a player in round one, he has to see that defensive back. It’s a game changing score, with A&M 16-7 up at the start of the second half, suddenly it’s 16-14. The play highlights the main issues you see time and time again on the tape – no pre-snap read, bad decision, forced throw, turnover with a big return.
Over and over again Tannehill will stare down his first read with no intention of actually throwing the ball, hope that draws the safety before going to his actual hot read. That’s what the play call tells him to do, so he better do it. If the safety sits and tries to under cut the pass, Tannehill will still make the throw. On one play against Texas he fakes the read over the middle (very Nick Foles) and turns to the right for Fuller, throwing a floaty pass to the right sideline. He doesn’t notice the defensive back sitting in coverage anticipating the throw and it’s almost intercepted. Because he’s not making reads and reacting to a defense, he’s relying on the play call. If you watch the top three quarterbacks in this class, they all improvise, they all adjust and they generally make good decisions. Tannehill has 14 picks this year, but each game he’ll have two or three extra examples where you think, “that could easily have been a turnover.” Barkley, Luck and Griffin are much more compact and don’t have anywhere near the same level of near misses. If 14 interceptions doesn’t sound that many, let’s remember that Andrew Luck (9), Matt Barkley (7) and Robert Griffin (6) have thrown less.
He’ll be at his best in a quick tempo offense that gets him out of the pocket, running bootlegs and making shorter completions on the run. Tannehill, as with Jake Locker, looks less comfortable and more error prone when he’s sat in the pocket. The technical issues, the mental issues – they’re both less emphasised when the pocket is moved or he’s throwing to developing routes on bootlegs. For whatever reason, his velocity is better throwing on the run and I’m surprised A&M don’t get him moving around more.
His first interception against Texas is a great example of this problem throwing from a standing start. He’s in the pocket, he stares down his receiver on a route down the middle of the field and floats a pass into double coverage. A defensive back reads his eyes and under-cuts the route, forcing the turnover. It’s bad ball placement (tries to throw to the back shoulder, but it’s too high), it’s bad velocity (needs to drive that pass because of the coverage) and it’s the kind of typical turnover Tannehill has forced too many times this season. Simply put, if you’re asking him to sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense, he can’t do it. He needsto be on the run. The big difference between Jake Locker and Tannehill, however, is Locker’s offensive line couldn’t keep him clean for more than 2-3 attempts, while Tannehill is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in college football and is virtually untouched.
Due to his problems in the pocket, it’s impossible to give him even an average grade for accuracy and he’s not grasped touch passing yet. He’ll fire a missile on a simple curl route, then float a deep ball and risk being picked. He doesn’t have a lot of big downfield completions because he generally doesn’t throw the ball into areas that give a receiver a chance to make a play. A lower, flat throw which hugs the sideline won’t cut it when the read is single coverage on a deep out. Tannehill also has a lot of passes tipped or blocked, I have to believe due to his slingy release given he’s got ideal height. It’s an issue he’ll need to correct, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a smoother release at the senior bowl if he attends.
The third interception is the worst of the lot, which is saying something. He’s just given up a pick six to make it 16-14, then he throws one of the laziest interceptions you’ll see all year from inside his own 10-yard line. Shotgun snap, stares down his receiver to the left who’s in double coverage and then just missed, badly, with a looping floaty pass. Perhaps the fact it was so high helps Tannehill, because otherwise it would’ve been another pick-six rather than just an interception. It’s a terrible pass, absolutely nowhere near the intended target, thrown almost with a sense of disregard. A pass like that should scare a scout out of the building. He should never attempt that throw.
People want to use inexperience as an excuse, but we’re not seeing a progression here as he spend more time under center and more time practising at quarterback. If anything, he’s been consistently patchy all season. If you could point to tangible improvements during 2011, I might be willing to accept he’ll enter the pro’s and with high level coaching it’ll click. The mistakes I’m seeing instead make me believe this is a guy with a lot of ideal physical tools, but is only a mediocre quarterback.
I’m not a big fan of Nick Foles. I’ve seen an awful lot of Arizona tape over the last three years and I feel like I’m watching the same player now that was on view in 2009. Opinion is generally mixed – some tout him as a potential first round pick, others don’t see a future in the NFL. At the National Football Scouting meeting last summer, Foles was given a 7th/UDFA grade – a grade I agree with.
There’s a long list of issues, so here are the highlights. For a guy listed at 6-5 and 240lbs, you’d expect him to be physically better than quarterbacks without that great size. His deep ball is weak, generates little velocity and is inaccurate. Overall he has a problem throwing the ball with pace, he seems to only throw the outside slant with a follow through. Look at the tape above and you’ll see an awkward trend where he almost ‘half’ throws the ball – it leaves his hand early like he’s spinning it to the receiver, and this takes away a lot of power. On deep passes this technical problem is evident, and he doesn’t drive through the football anywhere near enough. The deep completion he makes early in this game is a hopefully lob into single coverage – he won’t be able to make those types of throws in the NFL.
As you’d expect at that size, he’s not great at moving around and getting out of the pocket. He’ll never break outside to extend a play, he’s always looking for ways to stay in the pocket. This is just flat out inconvenient most of the time and it leads to a lot of missed opportunities and sacks. Foles has been sacked 46 times in the last two years and too many times it’s his fault. Look at the play at 4:27 where he’s too hesitant and ends up going backwards to try and extend the play rather than laterally. Move out of the pocket, extend the play and give yourself a chance to throw it away. Move backwards, lose your balance and put yourself in a position to lose 15 yards. He’s a pure pocket passer in every sense of the word, and that’s just not the type of player teams are looking at early in the draft these days.
He’s neither a very accurate passer or a safe, conservative decision maker. He’ll regularly chance a pass into double or triple coverage, he’ll miss on a simple inside slant or throw a knuckle ball on a basic screen. Considering he plays in an offense than utilises so many screen and high percentage passes, he shouldn’t be throwing 14 picks this year. A lot of people get lost in the yardage, but it’s a similar situation to Landry Jones. Sit down, break down the tape and look beyond the numbers. Are you seeing this guy throwing NFL passes? Are you seeing him fitting difficult passes into a tight window? Are you seeing him extend a play and deal adequately with pressure? Is he improvising from the play call? On each occasion, I have to answer ‘no’.
It often looks like he’s making one, two and even three reads at a time. His head will visibly tilt from one option to the next, but is he actually making progressions or is he trying to fool a defense to set up yet another screen? When I actually got into the tape I realised that he’s often not actually scanning the field, it’s a hook to break off a screen or WR flat. Two reads across the middle, then back to the receiver in the flats. You’ll see it time and time again.
When a player is competing within an offense that does such a great job making life easy for the quarterback, you expect them to at least master that scheme. At the start of the season I posted a video breaking down Foles and stated I didn’t believe he’d truly mastered this offense yet. The video above is one of his better game this year in a 31-27 game with no turnovers. At other times this season, I still felt he was struggling to dominate – even considering the gaudy numbers. I have a really hard time imagining him picking up a very technical NFL play book quickly.
You have to factor in his environment and admittedly, Arizona haven’t looked like a well coached team at any time during his career with the Wildcats. The chaos this season was predictable and it’s to Foles’ and his teammates credit that they didn’t completely implode after some heavy defeats. Even so, I cannot project a productive NFL career for this player. Teams will consider him in the middle rounds and the Denver Broncos sent an army of scouts to watch his performance against Colorado (he threw three interceptions in a miserable defeat). That’s the kind of team that’s going to spend a pick on Foles – a team still not completely committed to it’s starting QB, but isn’t going to draft one in the first round. There are better options that maybe require a little more work and a little more patience, but they’ll have a shot. I don’t think Foles does.
Either way, he doesn’t appear to fit what the Seahawks want to do at the position and it’s doubtful he’ll land in Seattle when all is said and done.
Matt Barkley’s performances have been consistently good all season, but it’s only after beating Oregon that he appears to be getting the praise he deserves. I wrote a piece during the summer that questioned whether Barkley – rather than Andrew Luck – would be the most talented player eligible for the 2012 draft. When you watch the Oregon tape, you look at the Stanford game and observe Barkley’s performance in defeating Notre Dame, that’s far from a ridiculous suggestion.
Luck is a tremendous player who will deservedly go first overall next April. The hype surrounding his potential, however, is not deserved. Revisionist history will tell you he’s the most highly regarded quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. In reality, Luck has avoided a lot of the criticism’s and questions Manning faced. It’s assumed that Luck will succeed in any environment, that he’s the perfect prospect. That simply isn’t the case and it’s something we’ll look into over the next week. Barkley has a similar level of potential but has received a greater critique on his physical limitations. I feel like we’re looking at two comparable talents – but Barkley deserves a little more credit than he’s getting and the Luck hype machine maybe needs to take a step back.
A play in the Oregon game stood out as one of the best I’ve ever seen from a college quarterback (fast forward to the 2:01 mark in the video above). Barkley takes a snap under center and then a five-step drop. He pumps to the left and then comes back to the right before dropping in a perfectly weighted pass that dissects two defenders for a big first down completion. Look at the footwork, always moving. Look at the field awareness and poise in the pocket. Look at the perfect touch and accuracy on the pass – it couldn’t be any better. And notice that he does it under pressure – Barkley takes a big hit just as he releases the football. That is an elite play, there are franchise quarterbacks in the NFL who can’t make plays like that.
NFL teams value the back-shoulder throw in a big way these days and Barkley’s pass at 3:40 is a perfect example. Great pump to the right, then quickly floats the ball just behind the receiver and two defensive backs. I think this is an instinct throw more than a specific call – he senses the position of the two defensive backs and puts the pass just short of the group to allow Marqise Lee to adjust and make the completion.
One of the big knocks on Barkley is a lack of pure athleticism, but we see in this video that it’s completely overblown. The offenses in Seattle and Washington require the quarterback to run a lot of boot legs and play action and right off the bat against Oregon we see a quarterback moving out of the pocket, choosing his target and firing to the left sideline. We see further evidence of plus-mobility and the ability to throw accurately on the run at 2:41, 7:39 and also on the third touchdown at 4:02 and fourth score at 6:26. He runs a bootleg at 4:49 for a first down, so we’re talking about a pocket passer with plus mobility which is fine – how else would you describe Aaron Rodgers? Barkley doesn’t need to be Michael Vick.
Look closely at the way he switches between reads because this is something that Luck and Barkley flash on a weekly basis and separates them from others like Landry Jones. At 0:07 he doesn’t like his first option to the right and checks down inside for a short gain but keeps the ball moving. He’s reading the defense pre-snap and diagnosing the play as it develops.
The play at 1:34 is what really excites me about Barkley’s ability to play quickly in the NFL. Essentially, it’s what he’ll be doing every Sunday – seven step drop while reading the field, eyes downfield and to the right to create space underneath for the slot receiver who gets the first down. Barkley shows in this play that on a technical level, that ability to work within a pro-system is already there. Watch the all-22 tape on the replay and you’ll see his head turn from the right to the left before going underneath.
Barkley doesn’t have a great deep ball – his arm strength isn’t at a high level on downfield passes. His placement is generally good in terms of putting air on the ball and putting it in an area for the receiver to make a catch. However, when he’s asked to throw beyond 40-yards the ball’s sometimes under thrown because he hasn’t got the elite arm strength. On Marqise Lee’s opening touchdown at 0:55, Barkley’s going downfield all the way. He locks on to the receiver, waits for him to get separation and throws. A pass towards the end zone and it’s a much easier touchdown completion, the under thrown ball asks more of Lee who manages to adjust and make a play.
He does have a mechanical issue – he transfers his weight to the back foot throwing downfield and loses velocity because of it. At the same time, he probably leans back in order to get air on the ball. Several quarterbacks don’t have the elite arm and make downfield completions by exploiting single coverage and putting the ball in an area for the receiver to make a play. Barkley has shown consistently that he’s capable of that – and while the pass was under thrown it was as high percentage as a downfield pass can be. He isn’t going to be competing in an offense where he’s required to throw 5-6 deep passes per-game to a Mike Wallace type receiver, and I’m satisfied that he will make deep completions at the next level working within a ball-control offense like we see at USC.
The pass at 5:14 highlights a similar problem where a stronger pass could lead to an easy touchdown. However, the accuracy and placement on that ball makes the most of what arm strength Barkley does have and puts the ball into an area for the receiver to make a play. He finds way to be effective downfield, even if he’s more Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer throwing the deep ball than Jay Cutler or Matt Stafford.
The outside slant at 1:55 is a staple play that Landry Jones uses at Oklahoma, Barkley shows here that he’s capable of executing that pass with the same level of zip and arm strength. He throws a very good fade, as evidenced in the Robert Woods touchdown 2:20. He’s usually aware of the situation as it develops- he senses at 6:05 he needs to throw low to avoid any chance of a turnover and make a smart completion on a small field. The completion sets up the fourth touchdown on a similar play.
For a player who makes great decisions most of the time, there were also two poor ones here. The first comes on a fumbled snap in the red zone at 4:15, collects the ball and then tries to force a pass down the middle and should’ve been intercepted. He needs to appreciate the situation – fall on the ball, take the third down and try again. It’s not worth turning the ball over there trying to force a play. The second error leads to the interception. Barkley argued that Robert Woods was held – he was – and that’s what led to the turnover. No flag is thrown, but why throw the ball to Woods in that situation? He needs to recognise there that even if there is a foul, the receiver is in no position to make a play. It was careless and avoidable, even if it should’ve been a penalty.
The pass at 8:31 is a further example of a beautifully weighted pass down the middle for a first down.
People talk about the high volume of screen passes and short completions in the USC offense, but that’s football not just in college football but increasingly in the NFL too. Barkley is going to be tasked with managing a ball-control offense that will include a lot of short stuff and high percentage passes. What separates him from a player like Jimmy Clausen who relied a lot on high percentage completions is the evidence we see every week of making several plays that demand more from the quarterback. He’s making difficult pro-throws regularly, he’s throwing on an intermediate level and beyond. Neither Luck or Barkley are running a Robert Griffin III/Baylor style downfield offense and that won’t be the case at the next level either.
On the technical front, Barkley plays on a different level to the vast majority of college quarterbacks. His ability to operate in something akin to a pro-style offense, execute and look as polished as this is beyond impressive. Let’s not forget that this is an Oregon team that made Andrew Luck appear very ordinary last week – and Barkley didn’t have the benefit of a home-field advantage. There’s no doubt in my mind that Barkley could be the top prospect eligible for 2012, that he can have a quick impact in the NFL and enjoy a prosperous career in the pro’s. Will he declare? Arguments can be made on both sides of the debate, but there’s no doubt at all – he’s ready for the NFL.
