Category: Scouting Report (Page 37 of 38)

It was Jones vs Peterson in Death Valley today

I’ve just finished watching Alabama @ LSU. It was billed as the Julio Jones vs Patrick Peterson contest, but another first round prospect stole the show. Drake Nevis (DT, LSU) is at #26 in my latest mock draft, but it might be time to re-consider that. He’s had a quiet few weeks after starting the season with four sacks in two games. He had a pair of sacks today, including a superb forced fumble on Greg McIlroy to seal the game for his team.

Nevis dominated the line of scrimmage, flashing the kind of athleticism and strength which will put him in the top-20 next April. Scouts might be slightly concerned about his consistency  but he stepped up against a big opponent in ‘Bama.

Stout against the run, he regularly took up two blockers creating space for others. He flashed a nice swim move and a burst to get leverage. He was regularly in the backfield to make a splash if not record the tackle. Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) has received a lot of credit recently for some stunning display’s – but Nevis is right up there too.

So what about Jones vs Peterson? Personally, I think both come out of this well. Peterson gave up some receptions (something Jones didn’t manage in seven throws last year) but he restricted his ability to make the big play. However, with ‘Bama driving late on trying to get back into it – the receiver won out with a 9-yard slant TD. He got position and a step on the #1 CB prospect and McIlroy couldn’t miss. It flashed a better grasp of routes – a major improvement for Jones this year.

His hands are much improved overall but there was an ugly drop late in the game with ‘Bama in an impossible situation – that’s one aspect team’s will have to battle with.

Peterson gets some credit for keeping a lid on Jones overall and not allowing the big play. His stock will remain unchanged after this performance. However – Jones showed why he deserves to be a top-15 pick in my mock draft. Nine catches, 81-yards and a score despite shadowing from CFB’s best defensive back? Major draft credit there.

Every team will watch this tape when they do their evaluations. A team who can’t get at A.J. Green early but need a spark at receiver will consider Julio Jones.

***NOTES***

–Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) had two more sacks today in an upset win over ranked NC State. That’s 12 sacks in nine games this year. He also blocked a field goal today. I’ve had him going first overall in my last two mocks. Believe it.

–Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) missed OKSU’s last game through suspension after a DUI incident. He was back today showing why he should be in the Heisman talk. He had 13 more catches for 173 yards and a touchdown. He added a further score on a 69-yard rush. He doesn’t get talked about much, but he might be the best wide out available after A.J. Green and Julio Jones.

–A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) had six catches for Georgia in a blowout win over Idaho State. He scored two touchdowns and topped 100 yards (103) again. He is without doubt a rare talent at his position who should be a top five pick. Routes, speed, control, hands. He doesn’t have elite size, but otherwise he’s the full package.

–Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) put all the controversy behind him this weekend with another big game. For the second week in a row he was productive as a passer – albeit against weak opposition in Chattanooga. He completed 15/21 passing for 317 yards and four touchdowns. He rushed eight times for just 24 yards but a further score. Heisman winner.

I have Arizona/Stanford and Washington/Oregon to be broadcast tomorrow ready for viewing. I’ll have thoughts on those games – and more notes – on the blog tomorrow. If you’ve been watching a game or a specific prospect today let me know what in the comments section – who impressed or disappointed?

I’m going to be in London this weekend for – amongst other things – the game between Denver and San Francisco at Wembley Stadium. I’ve got Miami vs Virginia, USC vs Oregon and Missouri vs Nebraska on record to watch next week.

I watched Florida State’s defeat to North Carolina State last night. Nearly every mock draft I see has Christian Ponder (QB, FSU) in the first or second round (example 1, example 2). Personally, I find that astonishing. I go into more detail here but I wouldn’t draft him in the first four rounds. We’re in danger of overstating percevied intelligence off the field and ‘moxie’ and ignoring glaring physical weaknesses and a lack of accuracy.

Let me quote Ron Jaworski, who had this to say when reviewing Cardinals’ rookie Max Hall:

“The one thing we’ve heard about Max is the moxy and the leadership. Those are all wonderful attributes for a quarterback but the attributes you have to have week in week out to be successful over a long period of time is the ability to throw the football accurately and with velocity. When I look at the tape I don’t see either of those. I don’t see the ball going down the field. You see the bubble screen, the bootleg thrown in the flat and nothing down the field. You just don’t see a skill set that projects to be a consistent NFL quarterback. Things don’t look good when you’re on the field with Max Hall. It’s that simple. I’m sure he’s a wonderful guy giving everything he’s got but the skill set just isn’t there.”

Clearly this is very specific to Max Hall. However, this certainly relates to some of the issues I have with Ponder. He doesn’t have a strong arm, in fact it’s pretty weak. His first downfield pass against North Carolina State last night was a high floaty ball with zero velocity into double coverage.

One thing I just don’t ‘get’ with Ponder is the lack of velocity he even puts on his wide receiver screens. The idea of a screen pass is to get the ball quickly to the wide out who can take advantage of soft coverage. When Ponder throws the ball out, it’s almost like he’s concentrating too much in simply hitting the receiver, as it floats out with nowhere near enough zip. The defensive back has more than enough time to read the play, react and make the tackle.

His decision making and accuracy have been all over the place in 2010. In the last two games against NC State and Boston College, I counted three times when Ponder took play action, turned to his right only to be greeted by a defensive lineman charging to him. In this situation he has to either take the sack and accept the broken play, try and throw the ball away or make a play with his legs. On each occasion Ponder simply threw the ball straight at the DL allowing the pass to be tipped up into the air. It led to one interception against BC and another similar play for a pick six was called back because of a fortunate false start. This is just one example of the way Ponder tries too hard to force throws.

A lot of people talk about his intelligence and leadership. When you hear Ponder in interviews he comes across most personable and clearly switched on. I’ve no doubt he’s a hard worker off the field and studying won’t be an issue at the next level. We need to distinguish between off the field intelligence and on the field smarts. I don’t think Ponder reads the game well enough. There are too many basic errors, too many botched plays. I don’t like Greg McIlroy as a pro-prospect and he’s physically limited. However – you can see he’s ‘game smart’ by the fact he limits his mistakes and simply keeps things ticking over. He manages. Ponder doesn’t.

The clearest example of this was the last real play of the game. Florida State had stormed down field into the red zone with seconds left needing a touchdown to win. Play action was the call, but Ponder faked the hand off wrongly to the full back – so when the half back arrived for the ball they collided, forcing a fumble.

On three occassions last night, Ponder reacted badly to dropped passes. Admittedly, on all three occassions the ball was on the money and the catch needed to be completed. However – sinking to your knees with your head in your hands after such a mistake is not the way to lead your team.

Stats can be misleading in many ways. A wideout like Julio Jones did suffer last year playing in a run-dominant offense. Due to his well publicised ‘drops’, many over emphasised the mental errors – which although they did exist – were not the sole reason for a slight sophomore slump.

Some quaterbacks get praised for stats when they play in a pass friendly system. As good as Sam Bradford is, his incredible 50 touchdown Heisman year played some part to the offense he played in as well as his incredible talent.

Florida State aren’t a bad team. They’ve defeated Miami and even when their quarterback has played very poorly (vs Boston College) they’ve done enough to win. But I just don’t know what to make of Ponder’s numbers. In eight games, he’s only reached 200+ yards once – against a decidedly poor Wake Forest outfit. He’s ranked only the fourth best QB in the distinctly average ACC. His 13-7 TD/INT ratio isn’t disastrous, but it isn’t that great either. His completion percentage is down from 68% last year to 60% this year.

You can make of that what you will. However, scouts will watch the tape from 2010 and see a prospect who just hasn’t performed well enough. Physically limited, not accurate enough to make up for it and hasn’t put up the big numbers despite some weak opponents. He had a second round grade coming into 2010 and hasn’t done anything this year to improve that.

I can only see a backup role in the NFL at best. Even then – I don’t think he’ll beat teams physically or with his accuracy. He could well be another Max Hall – struggling to get the ball down field, making basic errors. He’s more athletic than Max Hall for sure, but not in terms of being able to hurt a team. He’ll move around in the pocket a bit more, but he isn’t a good passer on the move and struggles to keep his eyes downfield.

But then we come back to the ‘moxie’ and ‘intelligence’. That will never be a good enough reason alone to grade a prospect in round one. It’s why Colt McCoy went in round three (despite a much better CFB career) and probably should’ve gone later than even that. You don’t go the other way and over promote a physical specimen who isn’t switched on (JaMarcus Russell). Ponder is neither physical or accurate enough to deserve the high grade some people have offered.

***Weekend Links***

Chad Reuter and Rob Rang from NFL Draft Scout look at the top senior prospects on offense and defense. I don’t agree with Rang that Cameron Heyward is the best defensive end and think he’s another ‘big name’ who’s slightly over rated. Neither Heyward or Allen Bailey (Miami) have great production this year – but Bailey is by far the more physically talented. Note the use of ‘moxie’ in Reuter’s review of Ponder. He does at least appreciate his inability to drive the ball downfield.

Walter Cherepinsky publishes an updated mock draft. He has the Seahawks drafting 21st overall in round one and selecting Jake Locker (QB, Washington). I don’t think that’s an unrealistic proposition. I do however disagree with the choice in round two – Kritofer O’Dowd (C, USC). This is too high for O’Dowd, particularly with Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) and Rodney Hudson (G, FSU) still on the board.

Mocking the Draft passes on information regarding Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) intentions for the 2011 NFL Draft. “On the season, Williams has 30 tackles, seven pass breakups, seven passes defended, five tackles for a loss, three forced fumbles and a sack.”

Mel Kiper hosts his weekly web chat. He says he has Florida State’s brilliant guard Rodney Hudson ranked 28th on his big board. He also discusses a number of other big name prospects.

A video to finish with. Want to know more about Auburn QB Cam Newton (who appears almost certain to enter the 2011 draft)?

Jones is starting to match potential with production

One of the toughest prospects to judge this year is Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. After an excellent season as a true freshman (924 yards, four TD’s) much was expected from Jones in 2009. He regressed slightly as a sophomore, putting in a number of frustrating performances littered with mental errors and drops. The numbers were down – only 596 yards – and he entered his junior (and likely final) year with the Crimson Tide needing to rekindle his spark.

Physically he’s everything you’d ever want in a #1 NFL wide out. He has the height (6-4), the size (220lbs) and the speed to do it all. He blocks well in the running game, he gets down field to stretch a defense. You can use him in the red zone on fades or play action.

When I watched him in 2009, I was pretty disappointed. I’m not sure if it was the level of expectation getting to him, but there were too many basic errors. It doesn’t matter how physically elite you are if you have a case of the drops. He only had one +100 yard game last year – largely in part due to a 73-yard touchdown screen against LSU. Part of the problem was Alabama’s run heavy offense which used the pass as a compliment feature. But you couldn’t get away from the drops.

I’d originally seen Alabama two times this year – against Arkansas and Florida. A single play from Jones also sticks in the mind from ‘Bama’s opener against San Jose State – a world class one handed grab for a TD which showed the immense talent on offer.

Against Arkansas and Florida, I got the impression not much had changed this year with Jones. Alabama ran the ball well and didn’t use their talented receiver a whole lot. There were a couple of sloppy drops against Arkansas. Jones was completely shut down by Janoris Jenkins against Florida – his four grabs for 19 yards only came via dump offs and screens. He was a complete non-factor in a blow-out victory.

At this point I wondered if we were looking at a pure ‘potential’ prospect – someone who has the tools, but like a lot of wide receivers coming into the NFL – no guarantee the light switches on in the pro’s. Scouts Inc had Jones ranked with a second round grade. Matt McGuire posted a mock draft on WalterFootball with Jones in round two, stating:

“Don’t say I didn’t warn you if Julio Jones to me looks like the next Roy Williams (underachieving receiver with all the physical talent in the world) or James Hardy (a poor man’s Roy Williams with less speed).”

Alternatively, Chad Reuter from NFL Draft Scout ranked Jones as a potential top-10 pick in his mock drafts. Mel Kiper has kept Jones in the range he currently sits on his big board – #13 overall. Mocking the Draft went a step further recently and suggested he could even be a top-five pick:

“Playing against man coverage with a safety shadowing over top, Jones displayed his strength and speed. More than anything, he also showed his toughness. It’s what sets him apart from every receiver in the nation, other than Green. It’s what also could get Jones into the top five of the 2011 NFL Draft.”

With such a contrast in rankings, I wanted to spend some time looking at Jones. His performance last Saturday in setting a school record for receiving – 221 yards and 12 catches against Tennessee – made me wonder if finally the production was going to match the potential.

I had Alabama’s defeat to South Carolina saved up and ready to watch. In the game, Jones had 118 yard from eight catches and a TD.

The first thing I noticed is something that I’ve picked up on before. Jones sometimes has a little dance step at the snap which needs to be removed. It’s not a big issue – Michael Crabtree had exactly the same problem. However, he’s capable of exploding and running really crisp routes and this holds him back slightly.

If this was the first time I’d seen Jones and you told me he had issues with drops – I wouldn’t believe you. Apart from one low drop which was all on Greg McIlroy’s terrible throw, Jones’ hands were borderline elite. Everything was plucked out of the air with his hands – no body catching. I don’t rate McIlroy as a quarterback in the slightest – and this was the perfect example why. He struggled to hit a 6-4 target dwarfing over coverage, yet Jones bailed him out with a number of acrobatic grabs.

He ran one great route down the middle of the field – this time the throw was on the money. Jones had two defensive backs ready to deliver a crunching hit, but he didn’t hear footsteps and simply completed the pass and took the shot. Impressive.

With 40 seconds left of the first half and with Alabama trailing, he feigned to the outside before cutting through a slant in the red zone. McIlroy throws a wild pass high up into the air above Jones’ head. He quickly adjusts and makes a superb, athletic grab for the touchdown despite tight coverage and a hand in the face from the DB.

I counted seven occasions when Jones beat his man deep but McIlroy didn’t look for him. The ‘Bama QB might have all the ‘moxie’ and ‘leadership’ in the world, but he makes one read and if it’s not on – takes the sack or throws it away. On every one of the seven occasions he never even looked Jones’ way. If he had, we could’ve been talking about a school record earlier than the Tennessee game.

Overall I came away impressed. That was the benchmark from which Jones has to build on – and it’s good to see he’s done so in the next game he saw significant action (injury kept him out vs Ole Miss). His most recent achievements are all the more impressive because he’s been battling a serious hand injury. He’s not a diva, he’s got the attitude you don’t always expect from a talented CFB receiver.

If he’s turned the corner and is starting to show a level of performance that matches his potential – I’d feel confident giving Jones a top-20 grade.

Nick Fairley had three sacks against LSU

I’ve just finished watching the tape from Missouri’s 36-27 victory over Oklahoma. My main area of focus was Mizzou’s QB Blaine Gabbert. He’s a junior and therefore a potential 2011 draft prospect. I anticipate he’ll return for his senior year unless the hype goes into over drive, but this was a solid performance to knock off the #1 Sooners. On the night he went 30/42 for 308 yards and a touchdown. For the year he’s on pace for 3255 yards and 20 TD’s. 

The thing that immediately stands out are the physical qualities Gabbert has. He’s 6-5, 235lbs with a good arm. He’s able to get the ball out quickly with a nice release and he gets plenty of zip on his throws. He’s not immobile despite the size, but he’s not a factor as an athlete. There were a couple of really good throws in this game where he flashed the ability to drive the ball downfield into a tight window, splitting coverage for a nice gain. Overall his decision making was sound and there weren’t any bad mistakes. 

His release point isn’t a problem, he’s throws nicely off the front foot. He’s an accurate passer and a lot of his throws over the middle were on the money and made life easy for his receivers. There was a lot of underneath stuff and screens, but it didn’t dominate the game plan and show a restriction on his ability to make a big pass play. 

However, he also faced very little pressure from Oklahoma’s front four and had a lot of time in the gun to get the ball out. He comes from a spread system, working in the gun and he’s not going to walk in and be able to take snaps under center. He’ll need to work on that when he’s drafted, along with the usual stuff (pro-reads, footwork etc). 

If he keeps winning with unbeaten Missouri, people will start talking. Right now I look at Gabbert and appreciate the work he’ll need to do at the next level to become pro-ready. If I had to project his stock I’d put him very firmly in round three, potentially round two. He’s so much better than a prospect like Christian Ponder. He appears to have a better mental make-up than Ryan Mallett. If he did declare for the 2011 draft, he could be the third or fourth QB taken. 

Another quarterback who is getting hype at the moment is Auburn’s Cam Newton. I talked about him in more detail last week. He’s an amazing athlete, he’s fun to watch. He might carry Auburn to a National Championship and win the Heisman. He is not, however, a legitimate pro-prospect at quarterback. In a close win over LSU yesterday, he again ran more than he passed. He won’t be doing that in the NFL, however good he is as an athlete. When he passed the ball, his footwork was all wrong. When he actually does set his feet, he throws off the back foot way too much and it means his passes lose all velocity. He’s got a much better arm than he shows. 

I’m not sure it’ll ever be addressed at Auburn whilst they win games. I wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting him early to play QB. With everything that’s happening this year though, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did declare – especially if he did win the Heisman and a big bowl game. He is, after all, a fourth year player who’s spent time in the JUCO ranks after a transfer from Florida. It also wouldn’t surprise me if one team fell in love with Newton the athlete rather than Newton the QB and drafted him in round one. It’d be an unwise move. 

One player who does look like a first round draft prospect is Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn). He was consistently making huge plays in the 24-17 victory. Despite a breather mid way through the game where he appeared to be a little winded, he was absolutely dominant from start to finish. He abused LSU’s offensive line for pure physical power, showed a decent burst off the line and was permanently in the backfield. He ended the game with three sacks and another big tackle for a loss. That’s nine sacks in eight games for a defensive tackle. 

Even on double teams he was too much for LSU. This was undoubtedly a career game for Fairley and one that will propel his draft stock. It’s important not to get too carried away because he certainly isn’t the physically dominating force that Ndamukong Suh was and he isn’t the elite, fluent disruptor that Gerald McCoy was. Suh was a once-in-a-decade time of physical specimen and it’s no surprise that he’s walked into the NFL and continued to dominate lineman. Fairley won’t be able to do that. However, you cannot ignore the numbers. 

As of today I’d grade Fairley right in the 20-32 picks range. He fits a 4-3 defense as a three-tech, listed at 6’4″ and 299lbs. 

I will watch Wisconsin vs Iowa tomorrow and have a few notes on Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) vs Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa). I also have Notre Dame vs Navy saved up. 

***Notes*** 

–Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) has his first interception of the season in a 33-10 win over UNC. Not many teams have thrown at Harris which has restricted is ability to make too many big plays. He has, however, shown tremendous ability in run support. He could be a top-15 pick. 

–Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) just continues to pump his stock up towards the top-5 picks. Another sack this weekend in a 27-13 win over Georgia Tech makes it ten for the year in just seven games. He’s always had the potential to explode into dominance as a one-time #1 ranked recruit. The sky’s the limit for him in 2011. 

–Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)helped Stanford edge past Washington State 38-28. He passed for only 190 yards with a 3-1 TD/INT ratio. We’re not going to see Luck dominate a team with the pass unless he comes from behind in a big win. Against opponents like this, Stanford will lean on the run allowing Luck to manage at QB. 

–A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) is his team’s entire passing offense. Georgia beat Kentucky 44-31 with only 113 passing yards. Green had 86 yards from six catches. He’s a lock for the top ten picks and a contender to go in the top five. 

–Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) and Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)had big games in a 41-10 win over Tennessee. Dareus got his third sack in as many games and is back on top form. He also deflected two passes. Jones had an amazing 12 catches for 221 yards in a much needed big game. This will ease some concerns about his ability to dominate – he has all the tools to be a #1 NFL receiver. 

–Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) is watching his star fall at the worst possible time. After missing two games through injury, ‘Bama have split carries between Ingram and talented sophomore Trent Richardson. Neither is on target for 1000 yards rushing. Ingram’s 88-yard two touchdown performance isn’t bad by any means, but the mere factor he won’t even get close to his sophomore achievements might linger with some scouts who feel he’s played his best ball. Even so – if I was picking, I’d still select him in the top-15. 

-It’s time to start talking about Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State).He’s a redshirt sophomore receiver who’s on pace for nearly 2000 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns. What’s even more impressive is he got 157 yards and two scores against Nebraska’s dominant secondary. He’s not physically elite in terms of size or speed (6-1, 207lbs) and it’s a favorable system, but there’s something there and he shows good hands when catching, competitive strength to challenge for the ball plus YAC ability. 

–Jonathan Baldwin (WR Pittsburgh) is also finding form at the right time on a good weekend for receivers. He had 139 yards and a touchdown against Rutgers. It was his best game of the season after a bad situation at QB threatened to destroy his stock. He might be the best wide receiver available after A.J. Green. Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma) looked solid against Missouri, but he’s strictly a slot guy in my opinion and works in a favorable system. He’s a 2/3 rounder. 

-Not a great day for Jake Locker (QB, Washington) in a 44-14 blow out against Arizona and their backup QB. It started well with a brilliant 26-yard touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse for a 7-0 lead, but Locker only finished with 17/29 passing for 183 yards and no further scores.

It was a contrasting weekend for quarterbacks again. Jake Locker’s performance against Oregon State further increases the likelihood he could go first overall. On the other hand, I’m not sure which team even drafts Christian Ponder after another hapless display, this time against Boston College. I also had the opportunity to watch two other ‘big name’ quarterbacks in Auburn’s 65-43 victory over Arkansas. Ryan Mallett left the game with a concussion after throwing just 15 passes for 96 yards and a score. It didn’t look serious and he shouldn’t miss any further time.

Funnily enough he was knocked out of the game by defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who’s having a productive year so far. I didn’t see enough in this game to justify a first round grade – he’s the type of solid, not spectacular interior defensive lineman you find in the 2-4 round range. He isn’t the type of player to be permanently in the opponents backfield like Brian Price last year and he’s not the most stout run defender either. Just a solid player who will carry some value after round one.

Some people asked about Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) and what he brings as a potential pro-prospect. He’s a Florida transfer who arrived at Auburn via the JUCO ranks. He has some background issues that would need to be cleared up. Personally, I wouldn’t draft him as a quarterback. Newton’s an amazing athlete with great size (6’6″, 250lbs). But he’s also a run-first QB and how many of those do we see in the NFL? It’s ok at Auburn to run 25 times like he did against Arkansas and put up 188 yards and three scores. He won’t be running endless QB draws at the next level.

He only attempted 14 passes on the day for 140 yards and a further TD. There are some technical flaws in the way he throws – mainly his tendency to almost always lean back and put his weight onto his back foot, losing a lot of potential zip and velocity on his throws. There’s talk he’ll consider entering the 2011 draft, but I don’t see the point. He isn’t going to be a first round pick at quarterback. I imagine he’ll eventually be drafted as an athlete, trained at another position whilst taking the occasional snap under center. A fun player to watch and a definite Heisman candidate, but not a high draft pick.

One big highlight in an entertaining game was Arkansas receiver Greg Childs. He had nine catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns in a much more productive performance than I’ve previously seen from him. He’s legible to declare as a junior and flashed good hands, an ability to create YAC after the run and polished routes. He’s not as explosive as teammate Joe Adams for pure speed, but he’s a more rounded prospect and deserves consideration maybe even in rounds 2-3.

**Notes**

–Anthony Castonzo (OT, Boston College) is probably the best of a bad bunch at tackle. He didn’t struggle with leverage as much as I thought he would against FSU despite his tall frame. He has better power than I first though. However, one of the worst attempted cut blocks I’ve seen in a long time gave up a huge sack/QB hit on Saturday – a definite area to improve.

–Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) and Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State) are exactly what I expected. Carimi isn’t a good fit at left tackle at the next level because he isn’t a great athlete and he’ll be susceptible to even an average speed rush. He should work out as a solid right tackle and therefore fall in the middle rounds. Heyward’s a bit over rated for me. He hasn’t got a great first step and lacks the speed to make up for it. He’s not physically dominating and only has one sack for the year.

–Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) is someone I’m much higher on. He got three more sacks this weekend against Maryland taking his total to nine in six games. He’s on pace for 18 for the year and surely has to be a contender to be the first defensive end taken. A light has switched on for Bowers and he looks like the guy he was expected to be as a #1 overall recruit. Top ten pick.

– Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri) is one to watch. He’s leading an unbeaten team despite being slowed by a hip pointer in recent weeks. He showed no signs of that at Texas A&M, passing for 361 yards at 31/47 and scoring three touchdowns. Missou won 30-9 and if you’re looking for a QB that might be available outside of round one with some value, Gabbert may be the guy.

–Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma) hasn’t had much attention this year, but he’s one to keep an eye on. He’s a junior and could declare with many more performances like he had in Oklahoma’s mauling of Iowa State. Broyles had 15 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. He’s not got the size of Julio Jones, Michael Floyd or Jonathan Baldwin – but he’s excelling on a productive offense, has shifty seperation skills and good hands.

–Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) still worries me some. Nine catches and 157 yards against Western Michigan looks good, but his big 80-yard reception flashed a common problem – he body catches far too much. The coaching staff at ND have worked tirelessly on trying to improve Floyd this year, but he still runs sloppy routes a lot of the time and hasn’t become a dominant physical specimen. Right now, I’d be surprised if either Floyd or Jones land in round one. Baldwin might get a pass because of his team’s QB situation, but he’s borderline too.

Janoris Jenkins (#1) can't stop a fake field goal

One of the prospects who has impressed me the most this year is Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins. I’ve had him in the top ten of my mock drafts, just behind Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) and Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska). It might be time to temper those expectations for him, at least for the time being. Jenkins shut down Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) last week but he struggled against LSU’s Terrance Toliver in the open-field. It’s not a stock killer because Toliver is capable of much more than he’s shown so far. His six catch, 111 yard and 2 TD performance against the Gators was long overdue – he only had 148 yards and zero touchdowns in LSU’s previous five games. 

There were two almost identical plays that stood out. Overall Jenkins was decent in coverage, showed good reaction skills as the play developed and was willing to turn and get involved when the ball wasn’t thrown his way. Indeed, he wasn’t targeted that often by LSU’s duel threat at QB and it’s a sign of the growing respect Jenkins has earned.  He got called on a corner blitz and showed great closing speed to pressure a bad throw and deliver a good, solid QB hit. Jenkins also showed some ability as a kick returner, but a good run was called back for an illegal block and an unnecessary spiking of the ball on the sidelines. 

The first big play against Jenkins came with 1:31 left in the first half. Toliver ran a slant and did well to pull in a difficult grab off balance. As two defenders closed, Toliver pulled off a superb spin move to avoid both and get into the open field. Jenkins initially does really well to anticipate the move and close quickly on Toliver to make the tackle. However, he doesn’t do a good enough job at all of wrapping up and Toliver simply drags him 10-12 yards into the end zone. He needs to make that tackle and whilst Toliver is 6-5 and 203lbs, it’s not like he was trying to bring down Mark Ingram. 

An almost identical incident occurred with 23 seconds left and the game on the line. This time Jenkins is covering Toliver and takes a bad angle as a simple short slant is caught with far too much ease. Jenkins reacts and again initiates the tackle, but cannot bring the receiver down. Toliver makes another 12 yards, dragging Jenkins along as he desperately tries to complete the play. It set up LSU for a game-winning touchdown pass and the victory, when a good solid open-field tackle may have restricted them to a field goal and over time. 

Jenkins’ coverage skills and big play ability will mean more to scouts and GM’s than his open-field tackling, but it’s something he needs to work on. He has good coverage skills, good reactions. He can be a kick return threat at the next level. However, he really needs to work on wrapping up in future and it certainly helped LSU put 14 points on the board. 

Patrick Peterson was the other big cornerback feature in the game – but it was almost impossible to judge him on this performance. He was off the field injured and in some pain for large portions of the game. When he was in action, Florida never tested him. He made a couple of good plays in run support – as you’d expect for a corner his size. He did have a badly botched punt for a turnover though – uncharacteristic because his special teams play has been excellent so far. 

**QB Watch** 

–Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State) proved he can win big games on the road with a comprehensive 45-17 win over Miami. The performance summed up Ponder for me – he managed things well without being physically dominant. He completed just 12/21 passing for 173 yards, two scores and an interception. Ponder gets a mid-round grade at this point and certainly doesn’t deserve to be talked amongst the early first round prospects. 

–Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) was also victorious in his first game since defeat to Alabama. He put up the big numbers and continues his major improvement in completion percentage this year – getting 310 yards from 27/38 with three TD’s and a pick. However, a good 24-17 win over Texas A&M was spoilt somewhat by Mallett’s petulance – striking a defender, arguing with anyone who’d listen and ignoring the coaches. It’s that kind of attitude that will hold back Mallett’s stock. 

–Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) matched up Jake Locker by helping his team defeat USC with a late field goal. Luck completed a lot of high percentage throws for 20/24 and 285 yards (3 TD’s). If he keeps winning, the hype will continue and it’ll keep his stock high. I still don’t think Luck is either physically outstanding or accurate enough to warrant the #1 overall pick, but whilst ever he’s being described ‘the best QB in college football’… he’ll be at the forefront of most people’s minds – including GM’s. 

–Jake Locker (QB, Washington) and the Huskies lost at home to Arizona State. Locker failed to convert a couple of fourth down plays – something that has been a problem this year for Washington. The numbers weren’t really good or bad – 23/38 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Locker had a late pick in the end-zone on a hit and hope. It’s important to remember that Locker was reportedly very ill ahead of this game. However, a lot of people voice concerns about Locker’s ability to get it done against lesser teams. This is one that got away. 

**Other notes** 

–A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) had 96 yards and a touchdown from six grabs as Georgia defeated Tennessee. In two games since his suspension, Green has 215 yards and 3 TD’s playing on a bad offense. He will be a top ten pick next year and could go as early as first overall depending on which team owns the pick. They won’t – but if St. Louis had that #1 choice again this year – it’d be a no brainer to pair Green with Sam Bradford. 

–Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) got his sixth sack in five games in a 20-17 win over Northwestern. I’ve had him in the top-20 of my mock because he’s rising quickly. Teams will be interested in his effort and production. I understand why others don’t want to move him even into round one but good publicity, improved technique  and big production will turn what would’ve been a third round pick last year into a potential top choice in 2011. 

–Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) and Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) both stepped up even in a losing effort. Jones responded after a quiet game against Florida with 118 yards, eight catches and a touchdown. Dareus provided constant inside pressure and got his first sack of the year against South Carolina. Jones’ stock is hard to second guess right now – I could see top-20, I could see second round. Dareus should be a top-20 pick. Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) had a frustrating afternoon as ‘Bama went away from the pass, he got just 11 carries and 41 yards.

Da'Quan Bowers had 2 sacks vs UNC

I managed to get a feed of Clemson vs UNC as a bonus today. I’ll have thoughts on Alabama’s shock defeat at South Carolina  and LSU/Florida when I’ve watched the tape tomorrow. Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) was once the #1 overall ranked recruit when he committed to the Tigers ahead of the 2008 season. He was slowed by injury and inconsistency to start his career, recording just four sacks in two years. The light appears to have switched on in 2010 . Two more sacks against North Carolina took his tally this season to six in five games. He had a third sack nullified by an offside call, stepping up a split second too early.

It wasn’t just the numbers that stood out. Bowers put constant pressure on UNC quarterback T.J. Yates, flashing a great initial burst to regularly get into the backfield and impact plays. He showed good upper body strength to push back offensive lineman to compliment his speed off the edge. There wasn’t a great repertoire on show and Bowers certainly didn’t flash a great spin move, but he generally didn’t need to against UNC’s offensive line. His size (280lbs, 6-4) doesn’t lend to the LEO position but he has the kind of build that could fit the ‘five technique’ LE position that Red Bryant has been playing. Although Bowers isn’t as big as Bryant, he’s a better pass rusher. With an effective LEO rusher on the other side, Bowers would add another string to Seattle’s defensive line bow. He plays some snaps inside and looks comfortable, so I have to believe he’d be well suited to such a role.

I had Bowers in the 20-32 pick range previously, but I’ll certainly consider upping that in the next mock draft. He can easily be a top-15 pick.

*NOTE: Reports like this on individual prospects or weekend reviews are now listed amongst the ‘Scouting Reports’ page located in the title bar or by clicking here.

Jake Locker (QB, Washington) vs USC
I haven’t had the opportunity to watch any of Washington vs USC but give credit to Jake Locker for leading the Huskies to a 32-31 victory. He needed to bounce back after a highly criticized performance against Nebraska two weeks ago. Locker finished with 310 passing yards and a touchdown, adding 110 rushing yards from just 12 carries. It’s a key note road victory for Locker.

Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford vs Oregon)
Stanford got off to a quick start (at one point leading 21-3) but couldn’t maintain it in a 52-31 defeat. The numbers looked quite good for Luck – 341 passing yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. He added 39 yards and a further score on the ground. However, to me he just looks so unspectacular. I came into the game wondering if he was just a good game-manager and in all honesty, not much has changed.

Here’s my view on Luck in a nutshell. Positives: Mobile quarterback, intelligent, has a good feel for pressure and doesn’t lock on to his receivers. Manages his offense well. Negatives: Nothing stands out (neither physically great or incredibly accurate), floats the deep ball too much, looks like a game manager, gets erratic at times and forces throws.

Mechanically he’s better than Jimmy Clausen was last year. Aside from the occasional low pass, he gets the ball out at a nice high point with a quick release. Clearly they are also very different characters. However, there are some great similarities between Luck and Clausen. Both rely a lot on short/medium range passes with a lot of slants and dump offs. Both will try to throw downfield but don’t put enough velocity on the ball. Luck’s first interception was a classic Clausen attempt – big high throw essentially put up for grabs except he didn’t have Michael Floyd jumping up to pluck it out of the air. Neither drives a deep pass, they put too much air on it and that won’t scare NFL defensive backs.

When Stanford went behind against Oregon Luck started to force things a bit and he became slightly erratic – something that has had a tendency to surface in the past. He isn’t that accurate. He hasn’t got a Matt Stafford type arm, but he hasn’t got Sam Bradford’s accuracy either. What stands out? Luck has a much better ground game and an offensive line than Clausen ever had at Notre Dame and that helps him to ‘manage’ things better. In terms of what they’ll be able to achieve early in the NFL I don’t think there’s a great deal of difference. I’m not that optimistic for Clausen in Carolina.

If Luck did declare for 2011 and he was considered a candidate to go very early, I’d be concerned if it was my team drafting him. If he’s drafted by a bad team that doesn’t have a great offensive line and running game, I’m not convinced he’ll get it done. This was a chance for Luck to prove he can lead an offense with his talents against another prolific scorer. I’m still dubious. I didn’t see enough in this game to pursuade me that we aren’t potentially witnessing another Joey Harrington.

Miami at Clemson
Allen Bailey (DE, Miami) had a better game than he did against Pittsburgh. He tipped a pass and generally got a lot more consistent pressure off the edge. It still concerns me how much he’s subbed in and out, but for the first time this year I felt like we were watching a late first round pick. Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) had another fine display and continues to impress with his tackling. He’s not a huge corner, but he tackles remarkably well in run support. He wasn’t tested all that much in coverage, but I’m confident he deserves a mid/late first round grade.

Texas vs Oklahoma
Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma) might be better than I first thought. He had two more sacks against Texas taking his total to seven for the year already. He has an above average double move and flashed a better repertoire than expected yesterday. He’s an all out effort rusher too, which makes up for a lack of elite burst off the edge. Getting 18 sacks in 1.3 seasons cannot be ignored and he could get up close to 15 for the year at this rate. Beal fits Seattle’s LEO rusher position and is a definite one-to-watch going forward.

Florida at Alabama
It wasn’t a good day for the Gators, but it was a good day for Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins. He completely shut down Julio Jones who managed just 19 yards from four catches (screens). It was a master-class of coverage against a receiver who could easily be amongst the top-15 picks next year. I’ve previously had Jenkins amongst my top ten picks on the mock draft – that’s not changing any time soon. Very, very impressive.

A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) vs Colorado
This was Green’s return from suspension. He managed seven catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns. He added an extra forty yards on a single rush. Green is a dynamic playmaker who could even be the first overall pick next April. If you’re not convinced, watch the video below showing one of his scores yesterday. I was worried that Georgia’s struggles in general could hold him back, but not on yesterday’s evidence. A great start for a prospect who’s best years will come in the NFL.

Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
We saw the best and worst of Mallett today. At times he flashed the big arm and made some excellent throws. With the score at 20-7 to Arkansas, you had the feeling this was going to be a potential career-definer for Mallett. However, he had what is fast becoming an all too often second half slump and just when his team needed a cool head at QB, he lost his. One ill-advised interception led to the game winning score and the other killed a potential clinching drive for the Hogs.

Having said that, there are too many naysayers with Mallett. I appreciate his issues and his talents – he is what he is. Big, superb arm, capable of making mind-blowing plays but also capable of hitting a cold streak at any moment and making a big error. I don’t accept that footwork is a major problem, it’s simply consistency. He made some excellent plays today moving around (especially for a 6’7″ QB) but nobody can legislate for trying to throw it out of bounds and simply lobbing it gently into a DB’s hands (as Mallett did to seal ‘Bama’s win).

Overall Mallett hit a lot of underneath throws and is starting to complete a lot of his passes – against good teams too – which is what he was criticised for most last year. He didn’t beat the nations #1 team today, but nobody can say he hasn’t taken a major leap forward this year. With good coaching, that will continue especially at the next level. I’m not convinced his stock changes now compared to 24 hours ago.

Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
I’d have no issues giving Ingram a top-ten grade. In fact, in a year when nobody appears to want to justify such a high mark it wouldn’t surprise me if he went higher than a lot of people think. All he does is score yards and touchdowns with almost a complete package of skills. His big TD scamper in the first half was a jaw-dropper and flashed all his skills in one snap. First he makes a brilliant cut, showing off his vision to find the right running lane. He bursts through the hole and shifts two gears quickly before delivering a powerful one handed punch to get away from the first tackle. He maintains his balance despite being knocked off course, before re-adjusting to hammer one more punch and tip-toe into the end zone for a 54-yard score.

You could put him on a NFL roster tomorrow and he’ll thrive. Ok – he doesn’t have Chris Johnson speed. If Knowshon Moreno can go 13th overall with his lack of breakaway speed, Ingram can go higher. He always finds an extra 2-3 yards after the tackle. At one stage in this game, he carried what appeared to be every member of the Arkansas defense an extra five yards in an incredible scrum. He’s a work horse and a playmaker who never seems to take a snap off. Even when he’s met in the backfield, Ingram always seems to get back to the original LOS.

Did I mention he does it in the big games too? Mark Ingram is just a stud who’s grade suffers because of his position. In a draft year that isn’t likely to be the deepest or richest in quality, Ingram could be a rare sure-thing who walks in on day one and just starts winning.

Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
I wanted to see a more disciplined Julio Jones this year and nothing in this game suggested that wasn’t the case. Jones will never put up the big yardage because he plays in a run first offense with a game-manager at QB. He had five catches for 55 yards in this one and did everything asked of him. There were no clumsy drops and he generally got into his routes quickly and looked like the mismatch he should be. Jones’ stats would’ve looked a lot better had Greg McIlroy spotted him wide open down the field on a blown coverage.

In terms of potential Jones has the lot. He’s got NFL size (6’4″, 220lbs), his deep speed should test well at the combine and he’s shown he’s got value in YAC. He’s on pace for a little less than a 1000 yards and 8 TD’s. If he can better that and maintain his concentration and focus for a full year, he can be a top-20 pick next April.

Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
This wasn’t a great day for Dareus and I’m starting to wonder how all the NCAA suspension issues have hampered him early in 2010. Of course he missed games, but he looks a yard off the pace to me. He picked up an injury in this game which essentially restricted him to being a space eating scarecrow on the defensive line. Largely anonymous throughout, he looked a shadow of the player that lit up the BCS title game against Texas last season. There’s still time for Dareus, but if he’s going to follow Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy in being a top five pick next year, he has to step up now. He got 6.5 sacks last year and he needs to start producing. Can he do it?

It was a long night for the Panthers on home soil

Last night Miami demolished Pittsburgh 31-3 on the road in a game that featured some big-name 2011 draft prospects. Unfortunately it was a similar story for this new CFB season – underwhelming performances. Allen Bailey spent most of his game on the sideline, Jonathan Baldwin had a very frustrating evening and Pittsburgh’s lack of a passing game meant a night off for Brandon Harris. Here’s my thoughts:

Allen Bailey (DE, Miami)
Bailey started well with an early sack – his first of the new season. However, as the game went on his play gradually slowed until it ground to a sudden halt. Conditions weren’t unfavourable and he spent very little time on the field early on after a series of 3-and-outs for Pittsburgh. So why did his play drop off so much? I’d also like to know why, for a prospect some grade in the top-15 picks, he spent so much time on the sidelines? Miami subbed a lot of their defensive line to keep guys fresh, but Bailey appeared to be off the field as much as he was on it. It’s not even like he was being rested, because he re-entered the field late on in garbage time. He looks the part of a NFL lineman although his best position is probably as a five-technique 3-4 DE, but inconsistent effort and a lack of initial burst will restrict him. I’m not convinced he’s a first round pick.

Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh)
I had sympathy with Baldwin until the final Pittsburgh series of any note. It’d been a very frustrating evening for the 6’3″, 230lbs wide out. His quarterback Tino Sunseri couldn’t cope against Miami’s dominant defense and only threw for 61 yards before getting benched. I wondered if issues at QB would hamper Baldwin in 2010 and it appears that will be the case. If he can’t match or better last year’s numbers (1111 yards, 8 TD’s) it won’t necessarily stop him being a high pick, but he likely won’t maximise his stock. In this game he came agonizingly close to two touchdown passes and finished with just three catches for 23 yards. He’s fluid despite his size and he’ll be a solid possession receiver at the next level who has the frame to be a valuable blocker. I’m not sure he’ll be able to stretch a defense deep, but when there’s no chance of him getting a good downfield throw it’s hard to judge.

However, he made a horrible error in the fourth quarter – which is why I lost sympathy for his difficult evening. Back-up QB Pat Bostick threw a perfectly acceptable deep ball to the end zone for Baldwin. There was a size advantage over the defensive back and it probably should’ve been a touchdown. Instead, Baldwin never locates the ball and looks awkward as the DB simply makes a comfortable catch and runs back a huge 74-yard return. To not even make a play on the ball was unacceptable and the visibly frustrated Bostick’s body language said a thousand words. Baldwin wears a visor for some reason, despite it being a night-game. I suggest he gets rid of it.

Brandon Harris (CB, Miami)
I had hoped to use this game to see how Harris coped against a top wide-out like Jonathan Baldwin. However due to Pittsburgh’s wretched offensive performance, Harris had the easiest game he’ll ever play. He was never tested deep and was able to push up in run support a lot of the time. He made one excellent tackle on running back Dion Lewis – originally standing in a well blocked poor angle, but he athletically arched his body and dived to clip the leg of Lewis and avoided giving up a big gain. His tackling was technically sound the rest of the way, but that won’t justify a high grade. We need to see him tested deep, for his speed and recovery skills. This was a night in which those aspects could not be judged, but he’s one to watch going forward from a University used to producing top DB talent.

Sean Spence (LB, Miami)
Spence stood out as the undoubted player of the game. He recorded two sacks on the night and flashed cat-quick reactions at linebacker. He diagnosed plays brilliantly, reacted instantly and made the sure tackle on the ball carrier. He plays at around 6’0″ and 220lbs so I’m not sure how the junior fits in the NFL – he’d have to add weight to stay at linebacker at the next level and that could affect his quicks. He had an equally good game against Ohio State in week two so if he keeps this up scouts will start talking about how he might fit in. Definitely an entertaining player to watch if nothing else.