This is a guest article by Curtis Allen

Kirk Cousins has been thought of by some Seahawks fans as a potential option for the team at quarterback.

The rise of Michael Penix Jr in Atlanta and the weight of a massive contract have elevated the idea that Cousins may be available.  The connection to Seattle may have gotten stronger when the Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak – whom Cousins has worked with before – as their new offensive coordinator.

To briefly run through the contract numbers for the Falcons: Cousins has $37.5 million of bonus proration money still left and is owed a $27.5 million guaranteed salary this year, meaning they have an eye-watering $65 million on their books no matter what they do with him.  There is also a contract kicker: if Cousins is on Atlanta’s roster on March 17 of this year, a $10 million roster bonus due in March 2026 becomes guaranteed, which would make their total commitment $75 million.

General Manager Terry Fontenot has attempted to sell to the press with a straight face that he is perfectly fine with Cousins backing up Penix Jr — but the likelihood of that happening is slim.

Many fans have spun a scenario where the Falcons cut Cousins, eating the $65 million as dead cap money and have Cousins signing with a team for the veteran minimum of $1.255 million — just as Russell Wilson did this season in Pittsburgh after being cut by the Broncos.  Seattle, with Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, would seem like a potential destination.

However, through a Twitter conversation in recent days in which I thought out loud a bit, it made me wonder if the Seahawks can acquire Cousins in a way that gives their search for a quarterback of the future a charge?

What if they traded for Kirk Cousins?

Honestly, the probability of this happening is low.  If just the idea at first blush seems outrageous to you, I get it.  It will take a bit of work to reason this out.  But in the spirit of ‘no stone unturned’ it could be a creative way to help the Seahawks acquire a young quarterback to build around – while remaining competitive.  That’s the dream.

Give me a little space to work with here.

Let us examine the numbers and see how the Seahawks could make this work.

If they acquired Cousins via trade, they would be responsible for his fully guaranteed $27.5 million salary for 2025 and the $10 million 2026 roster bonus guarantee would also trigger for a total Seahawks commitment of $37.5 million (he also has non-guaranteed salaries of $35 million in both 2026 and 2027 – you would hear the Seahawks acquired a 3-year, $107.5 million contract but keep in mind only $37.5 million is guaranteed).

This is where we cut hard against the grain in logic.  Why would the Seahawks commit to $37.5 million for Cousins and send capital to Atlanta for the privilege – when they could just wait the situation out and pay only $1.255 million without anything spent in trade?

Answer: The Falcons might be thrilled to cut $27.5 million off their $65 million dead cap hit for cutting Cousins, making it a far more manageable $37.5 million.  They also eat the entire dead cap this year – even gaining a little room in the process – and therefore clear a whopping $57.5 million off their 2026 cap, giving them over $139 million of room to operate.  They can build their team around Penix Jr without restriction.

So thrilled, they would pay the Seahawks to take him off their hands.  And that payment would be made in the form of draft picks.

And when you rarely draft in the top three, stockpiling draft picks is how you find a quarterback in the draft.

What a Cousins Trade Would Look Like

Is there a precedent for a deal of this kind?  There is.

In 2017, the Houston Texans sent Brock Osweiler and his $16 million dead cap hit, along with their 2017 sixth-round pick and their 2018 second-round pick to the Cleveland Browns, in exchange for their 2017 fourth-round pick.

According to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Draft Trade Value Chart, the Texans sent an estimated net 636 points of trade value to Cleveland to cover the $16 million.  That cap number represented 9.5% of the total 2017 salary cap.

Factoring for cap inflation, 9.5% of the projected 2025 salary cap works out to $25.9 million.  If we increase the number up to Cousins’ $27.5 million salary, we arrive at 675 points of trade value.

What about the $10 million roster bonus?  The Falcons are not officially on the hook for it but the Seahawks would be if they made this trade.  So, let’s split the difference and add $5 million, making 797 points of trade value.

Let’s use the chart to come up with some ideas for trade compensation:

This gives you an idea of what the $37.5 million will buy the Seahawks.

If the Falcons were to even consider this, which of these scenarios would they pick?  I would guess the bottom two.  Why?  The Falcons only have four draft picks this year.  Depleting their stock even more just to unload Cousins would be a hard sell to the fanbase, even if it makes logical sense.

To grease the wheels a bit the Seahawks could even send a player they plan on cutting loose anyway in the deal to sweeten the idea to Atlanta fans.

Maybe Dre’Mont Jones.  The Falcons could always use more linemen.

Noah Fant could be offered.  Ask fans to imagine what Penix Jr could do with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Fant.

But you see where the genesis of this idea lies:  If Atlanta trades 2025 stock, the Seahawks can get an extra pick in the first or second round this year – which supplements their stock and gives them multiple options to add to the trenches as well as picking a quarterback.  With Cousins as the quarterback in 2025, the staff would get a season to groom and train the rookie to take the offense in 2026.

Or if Atlanta chooses to trade 2026 picks, it comes with all kinds of implications.  If they own Atlanta’s first-round pick, they could package them in a trade up for a top quarterback prospect.  The idea would be that the Seahawks fill out their trenches with free agent additions and draft picks this year. The defense takes a major step forward in 2025 to become the strength of the team and the stage is set for a young quarterback to step into a loaded situation and succeed.

There may be a third option.  If the Seahawks like one of the quarterbacks in the 2025 class – say in the second or third round – and he shows promise with a year of development, the Seahawks then have two first-round picks to spend in 2026 on pure talent.  A defensive game-wrecker and a top offensive linemen could be in play with that kind of capital.  Or they could send one of their firsts in a trade for an established veteran and still have another first in the bank.

The possibilities are tantalizing.

But that darn $37.5 million the Seahawks would have to absorb.  That seems like an ugly number and a major obstacle to even considering this.  Is there a way to work with this?

There is.

The Salary Cap Implications

It is obvious that if the Seahawks made this trade, Geno Smith would not stay on the roster.  He would be released or traded to pick up $31 million of cap space.

Therefore in 2025 terms, the Seahawks would gain that but then add $27.5 million to the cap for a net gain of only $3.5 million.  The $10 million bonus due in 2026 makes it a net loss of $6.5 million.

The resulting cap hits would look like this:

Therefore, a trade like what we outlined in its fullest form would look like:

Geno Smith (with 1yr of team control) + $10 million in 2026 cap dollars

For:

Kirk Cousins (with 3yrs of team control) + a healthy draft pick + $3.5 million in 2025 cap dollars

A re-commitment to Smith means more guaranteed money coming to the cap in 2026 and 2027 – I would guess $25-30 million at the low end.  It would also likely make a move to trade or cut Smith in 2026 very punitive.

Whereas a trade for Kirk Cousins gives the Seahawks flexibility for both 2026 and 2027.

Think of it this way: The Seahawks are going to add $37.5 million to their cap this offseason at the quarterback spot either way, be it Cousins or Smith.  So, trading for Cousins’ contract is not taking on some massive new debt that loads the team down.

Trading for Cousins benefits the Seahawks if they want to get creative with his contract to open cap room.

OTC says a Geno Smith extension could save the team approximately $23.8 million, taking his 2025 cap number to down $20.7 million.

The Seahawks could nearly match that number without any additional commitment if they restructured Cousins’ contract.  They would do it by converting the bulk of his 2025 salary to a signing bonus and stretching it out over the life of the contract like this:

In 2026, they have options.  They could cut Cousins and pick up $26.252 million in cap room.  They could keep him and convert some salary to bonus to lower his number.

If they need to, they can approach Cousins about reworking his contract to keep him on for another season.  There is a line of reasoning that Cousins has played the game as well as anyone, chasing the top dollar in the market.  He has $293 million in career earnings.  Why not sacrifice some salary to stay on a team that could really make some noise in the playoffs?

If they choose to move on in 2026, they could even get slick by converting his $10 million roster bonus to a signing bonus, and then cutting him in a post-June 1 move:

The cap situation and options are better than extending Geno Smith.

The draft picks that would come in return favor trading for Cousins instead of retaining Smith.

There is a third factor that may be difficult to parse.

What Kind of Production Could the Seahawks Expect from Cousins?

Here is the rub.  After an excellent start in 2024, Cousins stumbled down the stretch and was benched in favor of Penix Jr.

That puts a real damper on his current outlook.  It should be noted that Cousins recently revealed that he was injured in Week 10 in two places on his throwing arm and he never got right the rest of the season.  At that point, the Falcons were 6-3 and in the thick of the playoff race.  They went 2-6 the rest of the way and that sunk their season.

If we take him at his word, consider those last eight games lost and just look at the first nine and compare them to Geno Smith’s:

On balance, Cousins’ numbers beat Smith’s in nearly every category.  It should be noted that the Falcons played six of those nine games against teams that made the playoffs, whereas the Seahawks only played four of their nine against playoff teams (including one in Bo Nix’ first ever NFL game).

Factors in Cousins’ favor: Bijan Robinson and an effective offensive line.

Factors in Smith’s favor: The Seahawks fielded a superior defense over Atlanta’s by a healthy margin.

An argument could be made that a healthy Cousins is a more effective option than Smith.

The Seahawks need a thorough physical to ascertain whether Cousins’ arm (and ankle) troubles are over and time to investigate whether his claims of injury to explain poor performance have merit.

If they do think Cousins can exceed or even just match Smith’s output in 2025, they should strongly consider whether Atlanta would be interested in a move like this.

Another factor in Cousins’ favor: The Klint Kubiak angle.  He already has an advantage over Smith in familiarity with Kubiak’s style, terminology and system.  He no doubt would be a leader in communicating and teaching it to the rest of the offense (and more so if they go out and add Cousins’ 2024 center – Drew Dalman).  Whereas Smith would be working with his third Offensive Coordinator in 3 seasons.

Is that enough to tip the scales?  It just might be.

Conclusions

There are many, many “ifs” in this thought line.  Possibly too many, if we are honest.

The Seahawks in recent days have indicated that they want Smith as their quarterback.  They could possibly view upgrades at key spots like the offensive line and a new coordinator as the key to ultimate success.  Frankly, after Sunday’s Super Bowl with Jalen Hurts beating Patrick Mahomes, that seems more plausible.

I will say this, though: Talk is cheap.  They may want Smith back but they may be unable to reach an agreement on an extension and be forced to look at other options.

Another big consideration: Cousins has a no-trade clause in his contract.  He would need to be convinced to accept this trade.  By all outward appearances, he has been a real professional in handling his demotion.  But internally he may be convinced that a move to a familiar coach with multiple weapons to work with is the best move for him right now.  Or he may make a non-football decision and want to stay in Atlanta where he has family.

Again, the Falcons must be highly interested in saving cap space and be open to aggressively pursuing an option like this.  Is that a possibility?  Yes.

Fontenot said this when the Falcons traded Matt Ryan and ate $40.5 million of dead cap in the deal:

“We’re taking it on the chin this year,” Fontenot said. “But taking it on the chin this year and how you look at where we are next year, it’s significant. If not, if we don’t do that, we could’ve restructured his contract or done something with his contract and kept him this year, and then we would still have to trade him after the season or if we keep him next year then you’re still in a really tough salary cap situation. With this, you take it on the chin this year and it’s our job to find value in free agency and to draft well and to put a good football team on the field this year, even with that dead cap. It’s an obstacle, but we look at it as an opportunity, and that’s our job. We’re not making excuses about it. Us taking it on the chin right now, it makes a significant difference for us next year and the future.”

With this viewpoint, we can at least feel confident that he would take the Seahawks’ call and consider an opportunity like this.

Remember, the baseline construct of this trade would be to acquire a quarterback of the future.  Swapping Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are pit stops on the way to a larger goal.

We have seen how hard it is to acquire a franchise quarterback.  Russell Wilsons in the third round and Brock Purdys in the seventh are the exception rather than the rule.  You need to be aggressively searching for your next quarterback if you do not already have a long-term solution.

If they can acquire a strong veteran quarterback, add some draft stock and maintain cap flexibility?  That is a win on all counts.

This idea – no matter how farfetched in conventional terms – is presented with that goal in mind.

For more from Curtis, check out his appearance this week on the HawkZone Rundown podcast…