This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
With two weeks to play, the most exciting season in recent Seahawks history is coming to a crescendo.
After a thrilling, improbable, spectacular win against the Rams, all that stands in the way of the #1 seed, a bye and homefield advantage are Carolina and San Francisco.
One game at a time. The Seahawks must travel to the east coast for an early game and dispatch the Panthers, who stand at 8-7 but have also recently beaten the Rams and Buccaneers, two teams the Seahawks have lost to this year.
Seahawks fans know what happens when you underestimate the Panthers.
Mike Macdonald does too. I think we can have confidence that he will navigate the post-adrenaline high of beating a fierce rival and the odd schedule of coming off a Thursday game and getting the players time to spend with their families for the holiday.
A lot of the Panthers’ effectiveness has come from mistakes from the opposing offenses. They are +5 in turnovers their last five games, mostly due to some very poor throws from Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford. Generally speaking, they were not under extreme duress, they had options, and they made bad choices and executed them very poorly.
The Rams alone committed three turnovers, all within 35 yards of the end zone. We can give the Panthers credit for a well-played game. But the truth is, some of the ‘old Matt Stafford’ mistakes came out and absent those, the Rams score about 50 points and leave Carolina with a win and are in the pole position for the top seed.
So that might be the biggest watch point of all: Play a clean game. Thursday Sam Darnold had two interceptions and nearly sealed the game. An excellent quarter by the defense and a Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown allowed the offense to recover and get back in the game.
What better way to put a stranglehold on the top seed and gain some confidence going into Week Eighteen than to beat Carolina with a solid game that does feature any major mistakes like turnovers?
The way the Panthers defense is shaping up, that is not too tall of an order for Sam Darnold and the offense.
Let’s look at our watch points.
Attack the Prone Areas of the Defense
The Panthers defense is very middling. They do not have a real standout identity or position group they can feature.
Joe Horn concedes as many touchdowns as he has interceptions. Mike Jackson has mixed good moments with some confounding play. Their Linebackers are replacement-level and their top pass rusher is Patrick Jones, who is on Injured Reserve.
The Seahawks can attack this defense in a number of ways. Here are a couple of them they should focus on.
Attack the edges of this defense. The last few weeks, Panthers opponents have effectively run the ball around the edges and between the tackle and the guard with regularity:
— McCaffrey could have jogged into the end zone on this play. DJ Wonnum misreads the play and darts upfield, putting himself a mile out of position, Kyle Juszczyk easily clears Mike Jackson and poor 200lb Nick Scott has to try and handle Trent Williams with a head of steam.
— Black Corum ran seven times against them and was frequently into the second level before anyone could get to him. The only run he had where he gained less than six yards? A two-yard touchdown run.
— Rachaad White had a 39-yard run where he patiently waited for the Tight Ends to move their targets out of his way and bolted through the hole.
Eric Saubert, Robbie Ouzts and A.J. Barner could have very effective days leading their Running Backs to solid gains on this defense.
The second area is to take full advantage of their weak pass rush.
Derrick Brown is the only player on the roster with 10 Quarterback Hits on the season (The Seahawks have five such players and Leonard Williams has 22 alone). Half of their sacks have come on blitzes but they are not very good at it.
To wit — two weeks ago, they blitzed Tyler Shough thirteen times. They sacked him five times but could only generate a 15% pressure rate for the game on 37 drop backs. In the fourth quarter, they called off the dogs and flooded coverage. Shough easily moved the Saints down the field, finding holes in their defense. In the Red Zone, they brought the house on a key third down. They did not get home and Shough made them pay by finding Chris Olave to tie the game up. The Saints won with another drive that netted them a field goal to break the tie.
They do not blitz, they cannot get pressure and the secondary gets diced up. They blitz and the secondary cannot consistently win in man coverage.
You feel for the defensive coaching staff. They are trying everything they can to at least give the offense some support.
With some selective and patient play by Sam Darnold, the Seahawks should be able to move the ball effectively. He will have the time to find his best option and if he does not get flustered, moving the offense down the field in chunks should be well within their grasp.
Defending the Panthers Offense
The Panthers have found effectiveness mixing some tough running with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard with force-feeding rookie Tetairoa McMillan with targets to develop some chemistry with his new Quarterback. McMillan currently has 16 explosive receptions, tied for ninth in the NFL (no shock who is #1).
Some effective running and Bryce Young making smart decisions open the door to take shots to McMillan and his scheme knowledge and confidence are growing by the day.
The best way to keep the offense in check is to limit the running game and get checkdown options like Dowdle to the ground on the first try.
Young has found a bit of a nice safety blanket when he is blitzed, finding Dowdle in the flat and letting him pick up yards because the backfield has one less defender. In fact, the games where Young has been blitzed the most? He has been the most effective in passing the ball. There are some downfield shots on blitzes to be sure. But finding his hot read and breaking to it will put much more pressure on Young to carry more of the offense himself and that is not a strength of his.
Have a look at how much his effectiveness drops the longer he is in the pocket:
If the defense can get him off of his first read and make him scan the field, there will be opportunities to take advantage. His sack rate and interception rates skyrocket and his accuracy plummets to undrafted rookie levels.
This bodes well for the Seahawks who are renowned for getting pressure without blitzing. The quick outlet passes Young likes to rely on? There will not be as much room in the defense to break off a big play because that fifth man is in the backfield and not trying to fight his way through guards and tackles.
In fact, I can see Young getting some pressure and bailing out on a pass to the flat and one of our quick defenders stepping in front of it for a pick-six. Call it a gut feeling.
