This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Week Eleven seems a near-perfect time for the Rams and the Seahawks to meet.

Ten weeks have come and gone.  Enough time has passed for these two teams to establish themselves, make their mark on the NFC landscape by throttling some inferior opponents and get some intel on each other.

What has the crucible revealed?

This game might feature the two most evenly-matched teams in the NFL.  Have a look at the basic game stats:

It is uncanny.  They both have reached their 7-2 record in very similar ways:

  • A veteran Quarterback who is reaching new heights and generating legitimate MVP discussion
  • An Offensive Line that is performing well despite not being highly esteemed, mostly due to some brilliant innovative coaching
  • A Wide Receiver that is somehow always open
  • A Defense built on a line that gets pressure with four

They are practically mirror images of each other.  It is appropriate that both teams will wear their Rivalry uniforms when they play each other this season.

And while a playoff spot is not on the line just yet, this game will most certainly have repercussions on the playoff race come January.  Just like the Week Nine game last year that the Rams won in Overtime.  Both teams ended the season 10-7 and the Rams won the division on a tiebreaker.

How can the Seahawks come out ahead in this matchup?

Play with Poise

As alike as the two teams are, they diverge greatly in two areas:  Winning the turnover and penalty battles.

The Rams are among the NFL’s elite teams in turnover ratio, standing #4 overall with a +7 rating.

They have a win and a loss this season you can attribute directly to turnovers:  In Week Four a Daniel Jones interception led to three Rams points, and Adoni Mitchell made a huge blunder by fumbling the ball out of the end zone.  The Rams won by seven points.

In Week Five Kyren Williams fumbled at the the goal line to lose a sure touchdown to clinch the game.

The Seahawks need to be the team toasting their hard work and not the one thinking ‘what if?’ on the plane ride home.

The Rams have recovered eight forced fumbles to lead the NFL.  Linebacker Nathan Landman has forced a fumble in each of the last two games.

On the other side of the ball, Matt Stafford has only thrown two interceptions and has had a mere eight Turnover-Worthy Plays graded by PFF so far this season.  He has not been the passer who regularly throws hits defenders in the chest with passes once or twice a week.

If Stafford does throw a poor pass, the Seahawks must take advantage.  We have seen passes hit Defensive Backs in the hands and fall harmlessly to the ground this year (looking at you, Josh Jobe).  Poise is making the plays you need to make.

Coby Bryant has a knack for being in the right place to make a play on the ball.  Ernest Jones too at times, by drifting underneath the coverage and taking advantage of being out of the Quarterback’s vision.

On offense, we all know how crucial it will be to protect the football.  The Seahawks have an insane eight turnovers in the last three games.  Thankfully, most of them have come in very low leverage situations, when the Seahawks had the game well in hand.

Sam Darnold must play a clean game for the Seahawks to take home a win.

But it is not just Darnold.  Have a look at this play from the Texans game.  What do you see?

A.J. Barner chips his man but does not get out of his route soon enough for Darnold to throw on time.

Charles Cross gets absolutely bull rushed by Will Anderson Jr.

Zach Charbonnet tries a chip on Anderson but whiffs.

Darnold is primarily responsible.  Once he hitched on Barner, he should have just thrown the ball into the stands and let Michael Dickson bail them out.  But any of those three do their job and this play has a different outcome.

It is vital that everyone does their job today.

And penalties.  The Rams are in a remarkable spot:  They have the fewest penalties called on them in the NFL, and the most penalties called on their opponents.

The Seahawks are in the middle of the pack on both.

They should not change anything they are doing.  They should not be any less aggressive for fear of flags being thrown.

But they need to play clean football in key situations.  Particularly against an evenly-matched opponent that has demonstrated so much poise already.

Nick Emmanwori Needs to Have a Big Game

Emmanwori’s skillset is a terrific counter to the looks and formations that Sean McVay cooks up to throw at a defense.  Why?

McVay will invite you to try to match his personnel, and then take advantage of Linebackers that are too slow in the passing game or Defensive Backs that are too light in the running game.

With Emmanwori, the Seahawks do not have to be forced into less-than-ideal packages by McVay.  He can play a standard box safety, a weakside Linebacker or a hybrid nickel Cornerback.  Macdonald can sub in another player as he sees fit and move Emmanwori to another spot.

McVay’s latest machination is using three Tight Ends (aka 13 Personnel), bunching them up at the line of scrimmage like some kind of double Jumbo package and then running wildly different concepts out of the same set.

Emmanwori is strong enough to bust up screen passes (that is 6’2” 225lb Treylon Burks, by the way), has the length and burst to drop back into lanes like a Linebacker and can become a blitzer with his closing speed.

Mike Macdonald’s superpower is getting pressure with his front four, and then adding blitz looks that shift just before or after the snap to keep the Quarterback off balance (we talked about them at length here).

That is how you counter McVay and Stafford’s brilliance.  Trust me, if you show your blitz looks to early or do not properly disguise them, they will make you pay.

Emmanwori allows Macdonald a versatile weapon that can be moved all around the field and deployed in a way that he can get into a Quarterback’s head, feeling pressure that might not be there.

Of course, it all works because the defense has players on the other side who can also blow through two big blockers to destroy a play before it gets started.

But Emmanwori is the key here.  If and when the Rams run out three tight ends he allows the Seahawks to run the defense they want to run, and not the defense McVay wants them to run.

Some Random Game Notes

— One big advantage the Seahawks have is in Special Teams.  They are one of the league’s best units and the Rams have been a bit of a mess, with missed and blocked Field Goal tries and not much of a return game to speak of.  If the Seahawks do not make mistakes there and tilt the field once or twice, that could very well be the difference in the game.

— When the Rams offense comes out in shotgun, chances are they are passing.  McVay is calling a 16/84 run/pass split in shotgun and the run game is only moderately productive for them (there is far less ability to be deceptive).  Also to know: Stafford’s two interceptions came from shotgun formation.

— In that same vein, on Third and 4-9 yards to go, McVay has only called three running plays all year.  That is a meager 8% of plays – the NFL average is over 13%.  A great time to pull some schematic trickery to get after the Quarterback.

— Week Two of the Rashid Shaheed Experience should be very interesting.  He can explode on returns, be a versatile weapon in the run game and make use of the field space that Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp can provide him.

— Tariq Woolen is best as a man corner who can press and recover if the receiver gets past time.  Watching how defenses lined up well off against Puka Nakua and Davante Adams, you can almost hear Defensive Coordinators saying ‘for heaven’s sake, don’t let them beat us deep.’  Problem is, that plays right into McVay’s strategy.  I cannot tell you how many times Stafford just hiked the ball and flung it out to Nakua isolated on one man and let him pick up 8-9 yards.  A well-timed jam at the line might just set them back just enough to malfunction things a bit.

— The Seahawks cannot neglect the running game.  They have not this year – in fact, they are the highest-volume rushing team in the NFL currently.  In Week 6, the absolutely battered Ravens ran very effectively against the Rams.  Derrick Henry was especially effective attacking the middle of the Rams defense.  They had held the Rams to a draw at halftime and controlled the clock.  A turnover caused them to chase the game and Henry only had three touches in the second half.  If the Seahawks can run like they did against the Cardinals in the second half of the game (with Oluwatimi at center), they can narrow McVay’s options on offense and give the defense energy.

— Landman is a liability in coverage.  He has conceded three touchdowns, 178 yards after the catch and has seven missed tackles.  All are worst on the team by far.  I can see A.J.Barner and/or Elijah Arroyo having some key contributions in this game.