This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

Last year the Broncos and Seahawks were both 14-3 and had deep playoff runs.  Denver was a Bo Nix ankle injury away from meeting the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

Now both teams are 3-2 and facing the tough reality that one of them will walk out of the stadium with their third loss of the year in only Week Six.

The similarities do not stop there.  Both teams have had troubling issues with their Quarterbacks, a run game that is not up to their standard and a defense that is very good, but a bit overburdened by the offense not functioning well.

Playing football in a short week might benefit both teams to escape the echo chamber a little.

For all our frustrations with the Seahawks, their two losses have been by a cumulative total of five points.  Flip a couple of awful plays and they are 5-0, although not without obvious challenges that need to be addressed.

And those challenges are not going to be solved in a short game week against a tough opponent.

If the Seahawks play the way they have usually played this season minus those intensely critical mistakes, they should come through this game with a win.

It is an intense oversimplification, I know.  But that is where we are.  There are strong elements to this team and they are too talented and well-coached not to be competitive in every game they play.

They must trust their Running Backs to handle the ball in this game.  They must trust Sam Darnold to make his reads, feel pressure and throw passes into tight windows if he must.

The only way out is through.

That is the biggest Watch Point of them all – the Seahawks must play the game they are constructed to play.

Without catastrophic mistakes.

Attack the Defense in the Run Game

Last year, the Broncos were the #3 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing only 3.9 yards per rush (Seahawks #1 at 3.7).

This year?  They are allowing an ugly 4.7 yards per rush, good for #25 overall.

The Bronco defense has given up more 10+ yard runs than every other team in the NFL except one.  They are getting regularly gashed.

How are teams doing it?

Well, for one, Quarterbacks are getting opportunities to run.  They count for six of those explosive runs.  Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy and even Matthew Stafford have explosives.

I do think a well-chosen run will do Sam Darnold some good.  He has been trying to stick it out in the pocket and maneuver around to buy time quite a lot so far this season.

If he sees a lane and can assure himself a first down, he needs to take it.  It will build up the confidence of the offense and give the Bronco defense another factor to think about, particularly at key moments in the game.

Otherwise, the explosive runs are coming in all different shapes and sizes.

Look at this one from San Francisco in Week 4:

It is pure scheme execution and Deebo Samuel making a second-level defender miss.  A well-executed play of this nature is within the Seahawks’ grasp.

A simple run that is well-blocked but elevates to an explosive due to very poor tackling on the Broncos’ part.

Note Kris Abrams-Draine going for the strip instead of the tackle at about the 34-yard line.  (side note: I do wonder if the fumbling issues the Seahawks experienced may tempt the Broncos into a similar mistake).

Kyren Williams being slightly patient for 30 yards.

Kenneth Walker redirecting on fourth down for 60.

Bhayshul Tuten on a counter-direction toss about 1:00 in.

There are many ways to make good runs happen.

The Seahawks need to commit to it and run these plays with confidence and execute well.

The Broncos are without two of their best defenders tonight in Patrick Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga.  Riley Moss is Questionable.

There is an obvious expectation that Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton will heavily feature in the offense to exploit this vulnerability.  And that may be true.  It will help Sam Darnold tremendously to have these players available as short-field options to keep the Bronco pass rush at bay.

But a balanced offense that features some concepts that we examined here should not only prove successful but keep the defense fresh – more important on a short week and in oxygen-deprived Denver.

Keep Bo Nix Playing Like He Has

Right now, the Bronco offense is not working very well.  They are bottom-10 in several categories.  Overall yards, rushing yards, passing yards, scoring….

You get the idea.  It is not a major shock that Sean Peyton has taken playcalling duties back from Davis Webb.

The first thing Peyton did was rebalance the offense.  He had a near-equal split of run and pass plays Sunday in the win against the Chargers.

Still, they only sputtered to 3.6 yards per carry.

There are a few things going on here.

J.K. Dobbins does not look like himself after missing half of last year with a Lisfranc injury.  He is considerably down from his 5.0 yard per carry average last year.

Also, Bo Nix is also having a down year running the ball.  He picked up as many rushing First Downs as Lamar Jackson did last year — and only five Quarterbacks ran the ball more often than Nix did.

This year he has dialed the runs way back.  Likely he is still protecting his injured ankle and not pushing defenses.

It is hurting the offense dramatically.  It might be why they felt justified in going out and trading for Jaylen Waddle.  Maybe taking some of the offensive burden off Nix would mitigate the change of him staying in the pocket more frequently.

So far, it has not worked.  Nix is on track for a career-worst season passing the ball.

He is one of the NFL’s least-accurate passers with a 59.9% completion rate.  His Air Yards per throw is down almost 28% and usually shorter throws mean better accuracy.  It is worse.

He is under the highest amount of pressure he has faced in his career (21.1%) and he is easily rattled (Nix has 15 Throwaways through 5 games.  In his rookie season he had 18 in 17(!) games).

What is happening?  The missing threat of running, the lack of support in the run game and the new playcaller have all worked against him to create a poor and disappointing season.

Quarterback analysts are noting his lack of good mechanics, hesitancy in the pocket and his inability to adjust to what defenses do post-snap.

Nix has shown a real hesitance to throw over the middle of the field this year.  His target charts are a barren wasteland.

He is making short throws to the flat much more, only occasionally letting it fly (as an aside, what kind of angle is Antonio Johnson taking on that throw?).

As you can see Nix is using his feet and can make throws while on the move.  He is not hobbling, just not using his feet to gain yards on the ground very much.

Jaylen Waddle will be dangerous though.  He makes his Quarterback look very good on occasion, making plays that can turn the offense around and give them a spark.  His game so far (other than against Jacksonville) though has been lacking.

Putting pressure on Nix with post-snap adjustments, some timely blitzes from players such as Tyrice Knight and Ernest Jones can really be effective if timed up correctly.