This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen
As hard as it may be to hear, the Bears and Seahawks mirror each other in many ways.
Both teams:
— Give token gestures to the run game and demand their quarterbacks carry their offense (Seahawks are 65/35 pass/run, Bears are 60/40, both in the top 10)
— Have porous Offensive Lines and will very likely be committing to rebuilding them (particularly the interior) this offseason
— Have a stable of receivers, some of which are not being fully utilized
— Have struggled to have an offensive identity and their offensive coordinator has made choices that even armchair coaches know will not be successful
— Have depth on the defensive line, yet rarely does it take over a game
— Have a top young corner who is very hit and miss this year (Woolen and Jaylon Johnson), have a young centerpiece-type linebacker they did not draft (Ernest Jones and T.J. Edwards) and have very expensive edge players who are not having their best season (Dre Jones and Montez Sweat)
— Have failed to beat an NFC North team yet this season
— Will be looking to reshape a chunk of their roster and (likely) bring in a new Offensive Coordinator this offseason
Now granted, they are not exactly the Spiderman pointing meme, with the Seahawks having a four-game advantage in record. But ask yourself — how far apart would these teams be if they switched divisions and the Seahawks had to play Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota two times this year?
I mention these similarities to highlight the backdrop for this game. The Bears are out of the playoffs this year and the Seahawks do not control their playoff destiny. Therefore, both teams will be playing for pride and with a view towards 2025.
To win this game, the Seahawks will have to win the similarities.
Win The Battle of Leaky Offensive Lines
Caleb Williams (23.1% pressure rate/60 sacks) and Geno Smith (22.1%/45) have both had to throw behind horrendous offensive lines this season and frankly, it is a wonder they have had much success at all.
Let’s start with the Bears on offense.
When I said above that the Bears’ run game is just a token gesture, that wasn’t just unflattering language. They might be one of the worst running teams in the NFL.
Lead rusher D’Andre Swift has the lowest yards per rush (3.8) of any back in the NFL with more than 200 carries, his yards after contact (1.7) is also one of the lowest, he has only broken five tackles all season and he has the worst first-down rate in the NFL.
He is the definition of a replacement-level player. Stopping him in the run game and forcing even more of the game onto Caleb Williams’ shoulders should not be a goal so much as an expectation. If he is allowed to run effectively, the Bears will control this game in a way that will prove very difficult for the Seahawks to combat.
Swift does, however, provide a key element for the offense unrelated to the ground game: He often functions as a dump-off safety valve and a designed point of attack in the screen passing game.
This is the biggest difference between the Seahawks and the Bears in adjusting to their ineffective offensive lines: while the Seahawks ask Geno Smith to regularly make quick reads from a messy pocket and pinpoint throws into tight windows, the Bears design a lot of their plays to get the ball out of Williams’ hands sooner rather than later.
They also love to roll Williams out away from the pocket with a tight end or receiver mirroring him for a nicely comfortable gain.
Those short but easy completions keep him upright, keep the offense on track, and keep the ball out of harm’s way (Williams only has five interceptions and is currently on a streak of 326 consecutive throws without one).
You can see some examples of this working well in last week’s game here at 1:58, 2:10 and 2:20.
How can the Seahawks combat their setup? First off, get pressure with their front four linemen. They can accomplish this with their speed and skill but also with the tricky pre-snap movement and side-overloading that Mike Macdonald likes to deploy.
This allows the back seven to cover zones and areas of the short-front of the field and use their speed to close the gap quickly and bring these dump-offs and screens to a halt with a minimum of gain. They are also on the ready should Williams abandon the pocket and run.
Forcing Williams to throw for his first downs opens him up to being pressured and sacked. It also may take a chunk of the field out of the equation. How?
Watching Williams play, he appears to have developed a comfortable habit: He only throws to his left when it is a set play such as one of those screens or designed rollouts (see the unorthodox-looking but successful screen at 4:50 in the video linked earlier). The only other time he looks to that side is when he has a receiver wide open or in single coverage with good body position.
He is far more comfortable making tight throws under pressure when he is focused on his right.
Look at his laser throw at 5:08 to convert a fourth down. The Lions only rush three, and Williams finds Odunze with four Lion defenders in the area. Keep rolling the tape and you’ll see two more of the simple variety throws, including an easy rollout touchdown pass to Kmet at the goal line (why can’t the Seahawks run this play?).
Now that Williams is in rhythm and has a sense of what kind of protection he’s getting, he uncorks a couple of gorgeous layered throws to his right again (7:08 and 7:20 for a touchdown that makes the Lions defense look like they are standing still). Look at 9:40, 10:06 and 11:53 and you get a sense of why he went #1 overall.
Obviously, this means that Josh Jobe and Devon Witherspoon will have their work cut out for them on that side of the field. But if the defense can stop the run from being effective and limit yardage from the easy throws, they can force Williams to look to that side of the field for success. Julian Love and Coby Bryant could then be timely lurkers over there, waiting for Williams to revert to his habit and then close the gap for a breakup or interception that tips the game.
What about when the Seahawks have the ball?
I think all of us would like to see the team roll out the offense from the Week Fourteen win over Arizona: A solid, committed running game, and quick passes to the flat that got the ball out and opened up some shots.
The Bears are ripe for this kind of exploitation. They are the #26 rushing defense currently, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. They have only kept their opponents under 100 yards rushing twice this season.
Another weakness to be aware of: No team gives up more yards per catch to tight ends than Chicago does. At 12.45 yards per catch, they are at the bottom of the league by a wide margin. Only two other teams top 11 yards per catch. Noah Fant and A.J.Barner should have plenty of opportunities to contribute in this game.
They can open up chances to suck the defenders into the short game and lull them to sleep to take some deeper shots. Look at 4:11 when Goff hits Williams, who has raced past double coverage. Also 9:10 when Goff fake-falls and then hits LaPorta wide open downfield.
This should be a game the Seahawks can easily control with an effective offensive display. They do have a talent advantage and a bit of a continuity advantage. It also appears that the game will be clear of precipitation and not too cold – good signs for a Geno Smith road game.
Win by Limiting Errors
Both of these teams have regularly made errors this year that winning teams do not make. The Bears’ clock management with a chance to upset the Lions was an all-timer that will likely go down as the final footnote of Matt Eberflus’ coaching career.
The more the Seahawks play sound football and put pressure on the Bears, the greater the chance that Chicago will make more epic mistakes like that one.
The Seahawks have not been immune to knucklehead play. Just last week we saw a cornerback who had not played in weeks line up in the neutral zone, defenders inexplicably ignoring the best wide receiver in the league, and two interceptions that were the result of poor communication and execution.
Last year at this time, Pittsburgh was coming to town for a crucial matchup and the run defense and tackling was sinking the team. In an absolutely humiliating display, that game proved to be the final nail in the coffin of the season and Pete Carroll’s coaching career in Seattle.
This year, we know there are problems with balance on offense and it feels almost certain for them to be addressed with a coaching change in the offseason.
However, the one thing they can control the rest of the way are these unforced errors that cost them so dearly in critical moments. An error-free game followed by another one against the Rams would go a long way to locking some things down for this offseason and instill further confidence that the franchise has made a good decision with a change at Head Coach.
