This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen
The crucible of this NFL season has had its twists and turns and now has deposited the Seahawks here: At 8-6, with playoff aspirations that seemed a lot stronger last week, coming off four straight wins and leading their division. Unfortunately, the Green Bay Packers came to town and exposed this team on a national stage as not ready for the big game.
Now, they are fighting for their playoff lives all of the sudden, and the daunting task of hosting a 12-2 Vikings team that is gunning for the top seed in the NFC looms.
Your 2024 Seattle Seahawks: Welcome to wherever you are.
That is the challenge we are facing right now. None of us have any idea of what to expect for this game today.
It appeared the defense had settled in nicely, and the rushing defense – a major issue early on – had been worked out. Then Josh Jacobs had 83 yards of offense in the first quarter alone on Sunday night. At one point, the Packers gave Jacobs eight straight touches. Then Jordan Love had a run to give Jacobs a breather, then they gave it right back to Jacobs for a touchdown.
The passing defense had developed a reputation for coverage. They got repeatedly burned for big plays and even bigger penalties.
The offensive line had been moving towards league-average status, a massive improvement from their early-season play. Then the Packers – one of the weaker pass-rushing teams this season – sacked the Seahawks quarterbacks seven times and recorded fifteen pressures for about a 35% rate.
A pessimist would say all the progress the team has made has been undone and the team should start focusing on 2025.
An optimist would point out that two of the Seahawks’ more embarrassing losses (Week 6 against San Francisco and Week 9 against the Rams) were followed by two of their best games of the season (going to Atlanta and soundly beating the Falcons, and a trip to San Francisco and a gutty win against the Niners). The pendulum can swing the other way just as easily.
How can the Seahawks make the optimist’s view come true?
Do Not Allow Mistakes to Dictate the Game
This one is obvious but the chance it will make or break the Seahawks today is very, very high. Why?
The Vikings are second in the NFL in takeaways this season. They are very consistent in taking the ball away from the opposing offense. How consistent? They have a takeaway in every single game they have played this season. Forcing turnovers has been the rule, rather than the exception.
It is no wonder they are 12-2 and their offense is thriving. The defense regularly gives them the ball back.
However, making mistakes is one thing. It is a whole other matter for the team to allow the Vikings to take control of the game by compounding the damage. It becomes a force multiplier if the defense cannot hold the Viking offense to a field goal or force a punt. Or by the offense to respond decisively in order to counter the blowback from a mistake.
Case in point: Two weeks ago, the Falcons came to Minnesota and played the Vikings very, very well through three quarters. Kirk Cousins had thrown an interception early in the second quarter but the Falcons defense forced the Vikings to punt with a three & out. The only damage was a missed opportunity and the offense was pushed back about 27 net yards.
After three quarters, the game was tied 21-21. The Falcons had picked up nearly 400 yards of offense, nicely balanced between 138 yards rushing and 257 yards passing. The Vikings had a game on their hands.
Then the wheels fell off for Atlanta.
Jordan Addison burned Clark Phillips for a large gain and then caught a laser by Darnold for a touchdown to make it 28-21.
At the kickoff, Ray-Ray McLoud fumbled the return and the Vikings recovered and scored. 35-21.
On the next drive, Kirk Cousins drove them to just outside the Red Zone but threw an interception at the 2-yard line. The Vikings scored again on the drive making it 42-21 and that was the game.
The Seahawks simply cannot afford to make critical mistakes. They have been a regular feature of their losses (and even some of their wins – the Jets game for instance).
The process begins with running the ball more. Last week, they averaged 5 yards per carry against the Packers. But they only had 16 runs, and two of those were quarterback scrambles, so in reality they only called for the offense to run 14 times.
That is both bad and easy to fix. The Vikings may have one of the NFL’s best run defenses, but the Seahawks need to commit to running the ball and playing the game on their terms.
The other solution is to game plan for the root cause of the Vikings’ turnovers: Brian Flores’ great use of blitzers and packages to disrupt the quarterback.
The Vikings lead the league in blitzing at 38.9%, and as a result weigh in at 26.3% pressure, good for fourth in the NFL.
How does Geno Smith fare against being blitzed? It is a mixed bag. He completes over 71% of his throws for a 9.1 yards per attempt and picks up a first down about 42% of the time. But he also has only two touchdowns versus four interceptions, and has been sacked twelve times.
To combat this ultra-aggressive defense, the Seahawks need to return to the balanced game plan they deployed so effectively in their Week Fourteen win over the Cardinals: make Smith a quick distributor of the ball and keep the offense on schedule with short passes complemented by timely running. The Seahawks executed screen passes to defeat blitzing and pressure masterfully. Smith was patient and quickly delivered the ball all over the field. As a result, he was not sacked – the only game this year that was true – and only was pressured four times.
Ryan Grubb has to make the game easier for Smith, taking away the ‘good process poor result’ type of play that has seemed to consistently risen its ugly head this season.
I mention patience. A rhythm needs to be established to give Smith some room to work. If they can train the defense to constantly react to the short pass, there will be very critical big-time passing opportunities when timed out well.
Have a Balanced Game on Defense
The Vikings offense has been regularly explosive this season, led by Sam Darnold and his surprising accuracy and grace under pressure. Aaron Jones adds balance to the team in the running game and opens spaces for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to exploit.
Like the offense, the defense needs to be patient and pick their spots. Blitzing can be very effective against Darnold, but it leaves one or more of those receiving monsters in single coverage. Darnold throws for 66% of completions with eight touchdowns against one interception when blitzed. However, he is sacked a high number of times, clocking in at over 16%. The game may be won or lost on when the Seahawks time up their blitzing and how effective it is.
The front four must deliver pressure to the quarterback without regular blitzing help, which is an achievable goal. Darnold has been blitzed only 99 times this season, putting him in the bottom third of quarterbacks. However, he is facing pressure on 25.6% of snaps, placing him in the top five. The defense has to exploit this weakness for all it is worth today.
I mentioned patience. A good chunk of their game plan includes taking the running game away from the Vikings as a resource. Aaron Jones runs primarily between the tackles and it is likely the Vikings watched Josh Jones run so effectively there last Sunday and plan to make that a central part of their offense today.
For their faults in pass protection, the Vikings Offensive Line is adequate in run blocking, giving Jones 2.5 yards before contact in the running game (as a reference point, this is about league average. Zach Charbonnet and Ken Walker are at a poor 1.8 and 1.7 yards before contact this year).
A return to controlling the run game on defense is in order. The line must keep linebackers Ernest Jones and Tyice Knight clean, so they can attack the runner. Stopping or slowing him puts the game on Darnold’s shoulders.
Making Darnold throw to advance the ball opens him up to pressures and mistakes. The backfield (especially Riq Woolen) need to rebound from a very poor showing against the Packers. That critical half-beat of coverage needed to sack the quarterback or making him throw the ball away or check down is an absolute essential ingredient to keeping this offense in check.
