Thoughts on the potential trade compensation for DK Metcalf

Reportedly the Seahawks want a first rounder and a third rounder. I think it’s more a case of a top-45 pick and a third rounder.

Not all first round picks are the same. The difference between Buffalo’s first round selection (#30) and Las Vegas’ second rounder (#37) is seven picks. Would you take #37 and one of the Raiders’ two third rounders (#68 or #73) for Metcalf? I’m guessing most people could live with that.

A viable range of compensation starts with the Steelers at #21 and stretches to the Cowboys at #44. Anything in that ball-park feels like a win. The later you pick, the better the additional stock should be. If the Packers were willing to offer #23, you might not get anything else. If it’s the Cowboys at #44, you’d absolutely expect a third rounder to be thrown in, or at least a fourth plus a later pick.

This feels reasonable given the comparable trade offers made to other player as noted by Brian Nemhauser here and here.

If the likes of Green Bay are only willing to part with a second rounder, which would mean receiving the 54th pick, you’re going to need more than that. Preferably a third rounder and a player. I’d want tight end Luke Musgrave ahead of any of their receivers.

This would be a hard sell, although one I think fans could reason with just to be able to move on. The Seahawks can’t just give Metcalf away. They have to hope teams — and owners — will fall for the idea of adding a big name, physically unique player who is very capable of putting up very good numbers even during a relative down season as he had in 2024.

The fear is this drags on for weeks and becomes a saga. The Seahawks benefit from a quick deal so they can use the $10.8m cap space they’d create by doing a deal. Hopefully a market is being established as we speak. The quicker this is done the better.

Why is a first rounder important to the Seahawks?

Since the combine I’ve just had this feeling that the quarterbacks are going to go earlier than people think. In my latest mock draft I had five going in the top-52. I might need to have a re-think and push them up the board.

It seems like some teams, facing a draft class without a lot of true blue-chippers, might be inclined to take a quarterback very early. That’s why we might see Cam Ward go first overall despite not having a first round grade by many (any?) teams. It’s why Cleveland might take Shedeur Sanders (or someone else) at #2. Mike Sando published a speculative top-10 according to league execs. They had Ward first, Sanders second and Jaxson Dart at #7 to the Jets.

I don’t think it’s preposterous. Again, this isn’t a class littered with ‘can’t miss’ players. I also think this is a quarterback class that might be receiving more love in draft rooms than the internet.

Let’s suppose we do see three quarterbacks go in the top-10. I’m not sure we’ll have to wait that long to see others leave the board.

Pittsburgh don’t have a long term solution. The Rams are going year-to-year with Matthew Stafford. Tennessee at #35 could be in the market as could Las Vegas at #37 and New Orleans at #40.

Yes, the Seahawks could be in the market too. Whether that’s at #18 — or an additional pick acquired slightly later in a Metcalf trade.

A lot of people aren’t going to like this thought but there are quarterbacks in this draft that will carry intrigue. Quinn Ewers, Tyler Shough and Will Howard in particular will have supporters in several draft rooms.

It wasn’t immediately obvious this time last year that Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix would be first round picks. It was only after the combine that a general consensus emerged that JJ McCarthy would go in the top-15. His character and leadership clearly played a big part in that. I don’t think Ewers, Shough or Howard will go that early and possibly (probably?) won’t go in the first round at all. I’m not sure they’ll last to #50 though.

The Seahawks might be eyeing a pick between #21-44, acquired in a Metcalf trade, for the intention of making sure they can get the quarterback they want without necessarily having to use the 18th pick.

Geno Smith’s future adds a further layer of intrigue

We’re now four days removed from the combine and there’s been no news. A wall of silence.

Neither party leaking any information likely means both sides are still working together to get things done. A good sign. But with every passing day you move closer to the deadline John Schneider claimed didn’t exist. Five days into the new league year he’ll be due a $10m roster bonus.

During a very interesting segment on Puck Sports earlier today, Mike Garafolo left the door open for a potential parting of ways. He did say it was more likely than not that Smith remains in Seattle. It was hardly, however, a no-brainer.

Garafolo said one team had called the Seahawks about a trade. He also mentioned there’s a list of quarterbacks the Seahawks would target if they dealt Smith, including Sam Darnold. Interestingly Garafolo is the latest reporter to hint at a weaker than expected market for Darnold who might now have to settle for a ‘prove-it’ arrangement in Minnesota.

Either way, you get a real sense here that the Seahawks are not ready to commit major money and term to Smith — thus the idea of drafting a future potential replacement becomes increasingly likely. If they move on, it would ramp up big time.

I can easily imagine the team having interest in this class. I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility they’ll draft a quarterback earlier than expected. It might be something to prepare yourself for mentality. Some will be all for it, others will hate the idea.

It might need to be earlier in the draft than most anticipated. The middle-class could end up being a bunch of top-50 picks.

Would the Seahawks seriously draft Shough, Ewers or Howard in the top-50?

I think it’d be foolish to rule it out. None of them are flawless players. All of them have reasons to believe they are worth investing in.

I’ll go in reverse order. Howard’s 97.4 QBR score in the four Ohio State playoff games is remarkable. He helped the Buckeye’s to a 50% third-down conversion rate in those games too. He was clutch when the team needed him in the big moments.

Howard did all of this after suffering the most devastating setback imaginable losing to Michigan. Rather than view that loss as a reason to knock Howard, I think most teams will admire his reaction. He elevated his game after that loss and won a Championship.

Furthermore, if you are going to win a Super Bowl without a Patrick Mahomes type under center, you need a QB who can deliver in the big moments. Howard showed in the playoff games he can do that.

He wasn’t just the beneficiary of a loaded Ohio State team either. He contributed big-time throws on third down. He previously won the BIG-12 with Kansas State, one of only three conference titles for the Wildcats since the turn of the century.

Some GM’s and some coaches will happily say — I want this guy on our team.

Now onto Ewers. Sometimes you have to think like the teams and not let your own personal biases get in the way. This is a player the NFL has been waiting for. He was a child-prodigy, tipped for the very top at an early age. I’ve watched him throw during recruiting camps. Very few teenagers throw a football like Ewers did at that age.

He has shown flashes at Texas, such as the Alabama game in 2023. The team made two semi-finals with Ewers under center, something they haven’t achieved in a long time. I wouldn’t assume they’ll be better with Arch Manning playing next year.

The injuries clearly are a problem. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy. When he was healthy though, the data is good. In the three games before he suffered an abdominal injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7. His QBR average in Texas’ three playoff games was an impressive 82.7.

Some teams will think — this guy has talent. The league’s been waiting for him. Yes the injuries are a worry — but if they weren’t we might not have a chance to draft him. Let’s roll the dice. His combine throwing session was a good reminder of how natural he is as a passer.

The concerns don’t end with just the injuries. His consistency and occasional inability to come off his primary read, plus some mechanical throwing issues with his footwork, also need to be raised.

Several quarterbacks came into the league as rough diamonds though. I think some may view Ewers through that lens. I think the Seahawks could be one of those teams, particularly given he’s been working with Schneider’s close friend Mike McCarthy.

Then there’s Shough. The tape is what it is — a mix of really good and some bad. His injury history is a thing and so is his age. I like him though. I like his attitude, his mentality, his personality, his frame, his arm, his athleticism. There’s something here. I can imagine Sean McVay liking him enough to take at #26. I think there’s a starting NFL quarterback here. Maybe not an elite one — but one who can win plenty of football games with the right support.

We’re talking about three individuals with high character, who’ve been through adversity and they all have some traits. Not elite traits but they’re not low-level physical prospects.

I even think we’ll see Riley Leonard and possibly Jalen Milroe taken earlier than many project.

It’s just something to store in the back of your mind. Don’t be surprised if we start to see the quarterbacks being bumped up in mock drafts.