Do the Seahawks want Russell Wilson on the tag?
Jason La Canfora offered these thoughts on the Wilson contract situation today:
“I’ve long chronicled the looming contractual conundrum facing the Seahawks over Russell Wilson, and am well on record that the time to go all out to extend him was last offseason. At this point, I frankly don’t see much happening between the sides. I’m not sure there is even a deal that could be done, or a deal, if I was representing that player, that I would much consider signing, even at $40M per year. He’s been remarkably durable, the franchise tag money in 2020 and 2021 would be huge and with this such a unique time in the history of the game – broadcast rights back on the negotiating table in a few years; a new CBA needed in a few years; the NFL about to embrace gambling money in a way unfathomable even a few years ago – I would be in no rush to even really talk about a new contract at this point. From everything I’ve gathered, this process hasn’t even started and there’s been no dialogue.”
It fits with some of the things we discussed on Monday. The big issue facing the Seahawks is Wilson’s likely willingness to play on the tag, bet on himself and maximise his earnings. Which is a perfectly understandable position to take for many reasons (including the changing face of the NFL as La Canfora discusses).
So if a deal is unlikely this year, what are the Seahawks going to do?
Here’s an idea.
Maybe, just maybe, the Seahawks want Wilson on the franchise tag. At that point he can go and negotiate with other teams. If he agrees a contract somewhere else, he will sign an offer sheet and the Seahawks will have two choices:
1. Match the contract
2. Gain two first round picks
Maybe they need the rest of the league to help set Wilson’s market? And that will in turn enable them to make a decision.
Of course it’s possible other teams won’t step forward. Yet with a price of only two first round picks to acquire Wilson, that would tempt many teams to make an offer.
As I wrote on Monday — both parties are facing a crossroads and both can go in a number of different directions. We have to wait and see what happens but the sheer fact that this already appears to be in some kind of a stalemate simply highlights the dilemma. Something’s got to give.
Doug Baldwin considering his future?
Theoretically. I’m not sure what Doug said on the podcast about his future but I do know he’s told people close to him the injuries are really taking a toll on him. We’ll see what he decides.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 20, 2019
According to Garafolo, Baldwin is set for sports hernia surgery in April. It’s a six week recovery. The surgery itself won’t put Baldwin’s 2019 season in doubt but it seems he’s still considering his future. He’s already had surgery to repair at least two other injuries this off-season.
There was plenty of talk on twitter and on some of the radio shows about Baldwin at the end of the season. It seems at least possible he’ll retire.
This speaks to what we discussed yesterday. Unless they believe they have to prioritise the quarterback position because of this Wilson situation, it seems very likely that defensive line and receiver will be the two key draft targets.
Which position is drafted first will be about value. There will be some attractive D-line options in the 20-40 range. But that could also be where the run on receivers begins. For that reason, it would be perfectly plausible for the Seahawks to take a wide out with their first pick.
The Seahawks have preferences at a lot of positions. At receiver, they seem to want 4.4 or quicker speed and explosive qualities (good testing in the vertical). We know they like to take shots downfield.
This draft class is loaded with really fast, explosive receivers. Eighteen wide outs ran a 4.4 or faster. You can just reel off the long list of potential targets.
D.K. Metcalf, Parris Campbell, Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, N’Keal Harry and A.J. Brown are all expected to go early. Emanuel Hall is an electric downfield target who could go in rounds 2-3. Hakeem Butler has his admirers, while Miley Boykin likely jumped up a couple of rounds after his outstanding combine. Gary Jennings is rising (and rightly so) while Mecole Hardman, Darius Slayton and others could be on the radar.
There might not be a clear top-20 talent at receiver this year but there’s plenty of depth.
Our early round draft focus for the Seahawks is narrowing. We’re getting some clarity on the positions they’ll likely consider with their first selection.
Ohio State receivers and the Seahawks
Parris Campbell will make an official visit to Seattle…
Wide receiver Parris Campbell said after Ohio State pro day that he has visits scheduled with the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints — and interested teams in the NFL draft’s top 30.
“I know my agent is probably blowing up my phone right now.”
His first-round hype is real. pic.twitter.com/dxl1u53Wl8
— Garrett Stepien (@GarrettStepien) March 20, 2019
This isn’t a surprise at all. Campbell’s 4.31 speed and running back size will be intriguing to any team looking at this receiver class. He fits every team in that regard.
Urban Meyer used him in the Percy Harvin role — lot’s of screens, bubbles and extended hand-offs. A lot of very talented receivers struggle to shine in the high-percentage offense Meyer uses (and a lot of quarterback inflate their own stats).
Campbell clearly has an outstanding physical profile but there will be question marks about whether his speed can translate. He very much looks like a converted running back. Can he play with suddenness to match the straight-line speed? I think he can make it and wrote about some of the positives here.
You’ll need to have a plan and a role for him. The Rams would have a field day with him. He’s in the Harvin mould — minus the character problems and with a larger frame. Campbell also has good catching technique having spent a considerable amount of time with the jugs machine before the 2018 season.
Meanwhile Doug Baldwin tweeted this earlier…
Terry McLaurin. WR, Ohio State.
Remember that name.
— Doug Baldwin Jr (@DougBaldwinJr) March 20, 2019
McLaurin’s agent also says he’s been told to expect a call during round one.
Firstly, it needs to be pointed out that Buddy Baker — McLaurin’s agent — is also Doug Baldwin’s agent. So it’s not a major coincidence that Baldwin is shining a light on a fellow Baker client.
That said, McLaurin really does fit the Seahawks. We talked about him during the college season (including this review here). He excels on special teams and as a blocker. He’s incredibly quick and sudden. He’s a downfield threat but can win at every level.
Listen to any of McLaurin’s interviews and he breaks down plays, defenses, the scheme. He sounds a lot like DeAndre Hopkins when he was at Clemson in that regard. He grew up watching the Colts (had season tickets) and has a clear passion for the game.
He could easily end up being Seattle’s first pick. He’s definitely a name to consider. However — they won’t be the only team interested.
Jon Gruden coached McLaurin at the Senior Bowl and spent considerable time on the final practise day speaking to him. You could see Gruden took a big shine to McLaurin and it won’t be a surprise at all if the Raiders take him at #24 or #27.
The Colts also need more at receiver and McLaurin is from Indianapolis. He’s the type of player you can imagine Chris Ballard having interest in.
So he’ll have options, including the Seahawks, and could easily go in the first frame.
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My hot take about both sides not talking to each other.
A. I’m not sure what the Seahawks management want, other than they would like to extend Wilson. They have him for a year on current contract. They can franchise two more years with economical numbers.
B. Would Seahawks be happy to trade and get two first round picks? At least it gives them a chance to find a replacement (assuming one of the picks is in top 5). As a fan base there will be a wide variety of opinions on whether he should be worth more, or whether the Seahawks should get what they can even if it is less.
C. There is zero chance that Russell Wilson will sign a long term contract without checking what other teams will pay. Why is it so silent? Probably because his agent thinks there is interest by multiple teams.
D. Is it really so bad just to let him play out his contract and wave goodbye without compensation? It’s not like the Seahawks have shown any aptitude toward trading players for draft picks. Repeat scenario after two franchise tags. Will it be the end of the world if he walks away to another team? Seahawks had a good run from him.
“D. Is it really so bad just to let him play out his contract and wave goodbye without compensation?”
I would say yes, for several reasons. One, the team suffered the opportunity cost of whatever they can get for him now. A lot more than 2 first round picks, I would say. Going without that draft capital, plus paying the tag amounts, plus not gaining anything for the future after he leaves – all potentially negatively impact the team’s ability to compete for a championship anytime soon.
This could be the beginning of a trend for Seattle (we’ll see). Any player that prices themselves off the team (Thomas in the past, perhaps Clark now, likely RW, maybe Wagner next year) forces PC/JS to make difficult, value-laden decisions. Do they shop them, ala NE and get what they can for them, or let them reach the open market and walk away with little to show for it? So many examples to cite, including Sweezy this year, Coleman, Tate, etc.
Balancing the impact between cost (cap hit), effectiveness (of the player), potential draft capital (either received in trade or lost – in the case of Thomas, for instance), the make-up of the roster, etc. etc. Lots of variables in a complex, ever-changing dynamic.
There exists an optimal point in each case to pay a player, trade a player, or let him walk. Potentially trading Sherman or Thomas, in hindsight, may have been one of those optimal points. Trading RW and/or Clark now, depending on the offer, and depending on what those two players are demanding in compensation, might signify an optimal time right now to make a trade (or two). If you trade them too early (all things considered) what you receive in compensation may not equal their value as players on your team. If you trade them too late, they may lose all trade value (Thomas, for instance), and their value to the team may be diminished.
If you make the trade now, you gain the draft capital that can be used immediately to infuse top talent onto the team, sooner rather than later (if at all), particularly in such a draft rich in the kind of talent that Seattle could use.
So, yes, there is a potential cost to letting RW (or any star player) walk off the team without compensation. Having said that, there is also risk in trading away known assets for unproven college players. For old Seahawk fans, does anyone remember who the Seahawks drafted with the picks they got from Dallas for the privilege of drafting Tony Dorsett? I don’t, but I sure remember Dorsett.
I think the Seahawks will end in a similar position as Earl Thomas last year. There may be lots of talk about trading from Wilson’s agent, but what team would actually trade two first round picks and pay 35-40 million per year? All they have to do is wait a year and they won’t have to give any draft picks.
RW is not going onto the FA market next year, so teams would like have to wait 3 years. So yes, i could see teams giving up 2-3 first rounders for russell for 3 years, even if a long term deal isnt quite made.
A team has to wait 3 years to acquire RW. OR a team can maybe get him in 2 years after surrendering two high picks (and perhaps more). Then they have to sign him. How old will RW be then? That matters a lot, given wear and tear. He’s 30 now. Would you want to acquire your franchise QB at the age of 32-33? Then pay him ~25% of your cap? Your Super Bowl window is going to be fairly narrow. Having said that, Brady, Brees, Ben R, and Rivers are still slinging it. Still, those guys are extremely rare.
I don’t get this two high picks thing to start with. That’s even less than Chicago paid for Mack. Are we seriously arguing that a top 5 qb entering his prime who seems destined to be a first ballot HOFer is worth less to a team than Khalil Mack? Color me very very surprised if the FO buys that argument.
The reason people are mentioning two high picks is simply because that’s the comp Seattle will get if he receives the franchise tag and then signs an offer sheet with another team.
They’d have to wait two years from 2020. The soonest he’d be a free agent is 2022.
This is why I think D is very much a likely scenario. Two tags buys Seattle time to groom someone behind RW and they might be okay with that. Two tags buys them three seasons to get back to the SB with RW. Only scenario I can see a trade is if some team wants to get ahead of the market, has the cap space, and is in a desirable market for the celeb couple. That’s a lot of ifs.
I don’t remember the full details of that Dorsett trade but I darn sure remember the reaction in draft circles when the Seahawks took Steve August with the first round pick from Dallas. There was universal disbelief and plenty of mockery. Pro Football Weekly in particular savaged that decision, both the trade and the pick. There were some scouts who thought August was a fourth round talent. Nobody had him as a blue chip player.
Running backs were the supernovas of that era. I’m not sure that aspect is fully recognized or understood by younger fans. Every year in college football there would be freakishly talented backs and instantly everyone would project them to the NFL as savior for some lucky team. That’s what made the Seattle decision so baffling and not respected. Tampa Bay was viewed as biased and stubborn in preferring Ricky Bell over Dorsett. McKay obviously had the USC heritage. So the better running back and best player in the draft was going to be sitting there with the #2 pick yet Seattle somehow brainstormed to avoid the advantage situation in favor of a nice but hardly overwhelming haul of draft picks. Dallas was instantly viewed as the trade winner and that impression never shifted.
About running backs, didn’t a team trade its entire draft to pick Ricky Williams? Or was it a different player? I think Miami…
As far as Dorsett, he pulled an Elway, refusing to play for Seattle (with Elway it was Baltimore, if memory serves). Forcing a trade.
Yes, RBs were the stars – Earl Campbell, Walter Payten, Barry Sanders, Bo Jackson…
I remember that trade too, and that it didn’t seem to pan out. So I looked it up and found:
1977: The Seahawks trade the second pick in the NFL Draft to the Cowboys, who select running back Tony Dorsett. In exchange, the Seahawks get the Cowboys’ first-round pick, which they used to select offensive lineman Steve August; and three second-round picks – which became offensive lineman Tom Lynch and linebacker Terry Beeson. Beeson would lead the team in tackles for three consecutive seasons (1977-79), including a still-franchise record 153 in 1978. August started 90 games from 1977-84.
I don’t know that I can criticize the trade when that seems to be Pete Caroll’s preferred method of drafting. i.e.. trade down for more picks. I thought the Seahawks got some players from Dallas and draft picks. If so – none of the players from Dallas made the team.
[continuing the discussion from the end of last thread]
That might truly be the best possible outcome Seattle can fall back on.
But I’d say 99% chance Seattle takes the R1 picks if it comes to that, because the offer would have to be astronomical to even pique RW’s interest before FA:
A team would have to:
1. pay him more than he would get on the tags, fully guaranteed, over the next three years.
2. make it no more than a 3-year deal, so he can hit FA again after 2021 season.
3. include a “no-tag” clause for when the contract ends.
Right now he’s set to make:
2019: $25.28m
2020: $30.43m
2021: $36.4m
That’s a total of 3yrs/$92.11m. $30.7m/apy.
So to make it worth it for Wilson, it’s probably at least 3yrs/$105m ($35m/apy, beating out Rodgers apy), fully guaranteed, with the no-tag clause.
Would Seattle pay an extra $4.3m/apy basically just to be able to free up the franchise tag to use on somebody else? I don’t think so. They would also likely lose a big chunk of cap to dead money if they did receive an amazing trade offer for Wilson before 2021 and wish to accept it.
Would some other team give up the bounty of draft picks necessary to pry Wilson from Seattle only to have to pay him at least this and face losing or astronomically overpaying him in 3 years’ time? I don’t know, but there are some desperate teams out there, GMs/coaches on the hot seat in “win now” mode…
As far as other teams go, they know that they can wait out Seattle and get him without paying draft picks.
Also my favorite bottom dwelling teams have new quarterbacks and presumably will do better this year. Cleveland Browns for instance. So there is rotation occurring at the bottom. Just looking at a list of oldest quarterbacks and I find teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Saints and Patriots. Out of that list, the Patriots and Cardinals aren’t going to pay him enough.
My approach if I were General Manager, is to tell his agent that this is our offer (somewhere between 105 and 120 million for three years fully guaranteed) and it will be good through the summer. Once preseason starts, we are done talking about a new contract and will do whatever is best for the organization.
Holy smokes, Mecole Hardman! 🔥 One of V12’s guys for a long time now.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyDasher1/status/1108389813319802880
He can flat out fly
“He’s so fast he makes fast people look not fast”
Him, Andy Isabella and Emmanuel Hall all have some serious juice.
Jaylon Ferguson is still running his 3 cone. 7 attempts. lol.
Was always JAG.
Embarrassingly bad numbers across the board. Day 3 prospect.
He wasn’t ‘always JAG’. It’s a bad workout. He will suffer for it. But there’s no need to act like the answer was obvious all along.
IMO he was never impressive.
Does anyone have a good link/resource that details how much $ the gambling thing is expected to bring into the league?
Something I heard from I guy I always found respected in his field, what he thought it would be to extend Russel Wilson. It would be a 4 year extension for 136million and 70 million guarantee. I wonder if you all think that would work cause all for contract like that.
I’d be shocked if he accepted that
I say this in the sense of “neither side is the bad guy;” I don’t see a clean resolution here. Either the Seahawks lose RW or pay him an exorbitant amount that affects the rest of the roster construction. Combine this with the style that PC wants to play – and it just doesn’t make sense.
You have got to trade him for as much as humanly possible – and you have to be willing to do it right now, next year…really, anytime. The only “right time” to trade RW is specifically tied to the compensation you will receive. Yes, a perfect world scenario would be draft his replacement this year and trade him next year for multiple 1st rounds picks, etc.
That’s not how these things work. The timing of a trade is secondary to the compensation. If that means right now and this team is ill-prepared for 2019 – then so be it. It makes more sense to maximize draft capital and sacrifice a year then to try to perfectly time RW’s departure – because the reality is that other teams will know it and compensation will be reduced as a result. The absolute worst thing that can happen to this team is that RW is traded for 1 pick.
Im willing to bet that the Seahawks will tag him at least twice and try to make a run for a SB and if it doesnt happen by 2021.. PC would evaluate his future the same time the seahawks would be forced to give a GIANT contract to RW or trade him. and then RW could go to a market that he likes and finish out his career being a pocket passer, or whatever kind of QB wants..
the only thing Rob can do is guess and evaluate the past moves they’ve made.
The Seahawks would be absolutely foolish to think they are making a SB in the next 2 years. They are not close, at all.
I’m not saying you are wrong about what they will do, but I think if that’s the approach they take – we are going to enter a long phase of bad football. Without RW – this roster is one of the worst in the league – so there are 2 choices: find a solution to keep RW or deal him for enough picks that you can infuse this team with talent. Remember – Bobby is going to be 30, Doug Baldwin will retire before you know it. Duane Brown will be in his mid 30s. Frank Clark, Tyler Lockett, and Jarran Reed are good players…but that’s not an elite core that carries you to a Super Bowl anytime soon.
Going hard for a SB in the next 2 years at the risk of losing RW for a 3rd round comp pick a year later will be the death knell of this team.
Very True, Matt. It’s not just the roster but how PC utilizes it with a conservative cover 1 deep D safety approach, grind the clock with running the ball conservative O to no end and hope your FG kicker can kick 90% to win close games he keeps us in by all of the conservatism.
We had the #1 scoring D for 4 straight seasons, never duplicated in SB era and nailed 1 SB and it was very fortunate we beat SF in the 2013 NFCCG (Harbaugh stinks). Haushka going back off the field when he told PC he couldn’t make the kick, RW getting Smith to jump for a free play and TD to Kearse for a 20-17 lead. We really were fortunate to win that game. Ditto vs GB vs another terrible coach in McCarthy in ’14.
Pete Carroll is excellent with DB’s but needs a stacked team of all pros to sniff a SB. A great game day coach would’ve won 3 SB’s with that squad. Heck, it could be argued 2012’s team was the best of the group with momentum and those back to back 50 point games. It was our best Offense, easily. Play calling vs Falcons in divisionals was pathetic. Let’s wait until we’re down 20-0 at half to open it up and never ran read option. RW throws for 375 yds as a rookie and we’re still using RW like he’s a journeyman backup 6 years later.
You’re right, Matt. This team isn’t close to a SB. I love RW, love RW, but he should want to move on and we should attempt to get compensation now.
Let’s take a step back here. It’s very easy to focus purely on negatives. Are people forgetting who built this awesome team? Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Who developed it? Who dared to start a 5-10 third round rookie quarterback? I mean, that was so conservative right? Not to start Matt Flynn and go with Wilson instead.
Who was able to get this team back to the playoffs last season against the odds, during a reset?
I’m bored of hearing all this anti-Pete nonsense. The entitlement among Seahawks fans is way beyond any other franchise in the NFL these days. How times have changed since 2010.
The 12th man are becoming the 12th moan.
I’m sorry this isn’t related to the article but my number one draft crush this year is Anthony Nelson, defensive end from Iowa.
I think I’d take him round one. After a trade down. It seems like he hasn’t reached anywhere close to his ceiling based on his size and athletic testing, but even then there’s a lot to like on tape.
Round 1 for me. You want a Dion Jordan upgrade? There you go. Although I STILL like Jordan.
On a side note I like Justin Hollins as well.
I like Hollins as well. Wish his tape was better but he has tons of upside.
Not that I’m not intrigued by him, but hard pass in round 1. Just my opinion.
“Curtis Crabtree: Doug Baldwin just said with @cliffavril on @SportsRadioKJR that he has more surgeries yet to come still this offseason.”
https://twitter.com/Curtis_Crabtree/status/1108444909764108288
WR just became an even bigger need, boys.
Apparently it’s a sports hernia op in April. If he’s intending on playing in 2019 this won’t prevent him from doing so.
The more surgeries that Baldwin gets, the more likely it seems that his effectiveness will diminish. Probably need him to mentor the next Doug Baldwin sooner rather than later.
Doug’s been nearing the end anyway. He won’t play much longer. Not worried about this surgery though. Sports hernia clear up in April. They were going to draft a WR this year anyway.
I had surgery for an inguinal hernia a few years ago. Approx. 6 weeks no cycling (or any lifting). I was mid forties but it put a dent in my already modest middle age dude amateur racing ambitions. It’s not invasive surgery but it’s not nothing either. Yup, we were already going to draft one and now we are really going to draft one.
Seems to be ok, but hope WR Parris Campbell didn’t suffer anything too serious today.
I hope not too. Sometimes the draft process seems like it is overkill for these guys.
However this goes down, if Russ isn’t on the team a year from now I will be incredibly sad.
Same – even though it might be best for the organization, won’t feel the same without him (for quite some time anyway).
I was thinking about how the Patriots built the dynasty they have in NE last night and really it is not about the players, drafting or cap management as much as it is simply about better coaching than everyone else. They coach up and develop thier players better than any other team in the league.
So as an organization I think they should be spending as much time scouting and developing coaches as they do players. Enough with the constant re-tread and hiring relatives of guys you know. It is ridiculous.
Certain coaches give thier teams incredible competitive advantages with certain postion groups. Think about these coaches.
Belichick- Linebackers If he has elite talent at the positions he turns them into Hall of Famers (Lawerence Taylor, Carl Banks, Willie Mcginest) If he has decent talent he turns them into great players like Bruschi and Vrabel. If he has average talent he turns them into really good players. Look at what happened to Jamie Collins after he left the Pats.
Dante Scarneccia -OL Incredible OL every year with average talent. He just made Trent Brown a guy who was looking for a team the highest paid OL in the league. Also look at what happened to the Pats OL the one year he stepped away, the Broncos almost killed Brady.
Andy Reid – QB Has Reid ever had a QB that he did not make really good. Even his backup QBs get big deals because he developed them.
Pete -DB He just keeps turning mid round picks into elite DBs
Davo Sweeney -WR he is a head coach with an WR focus and wow does it show with the talent Clemson keeps pumping out. These guys come to the NFL ready.
These are just some examples where a coach gives the team a huge competitive advantage at a relatively cheap price that has a really long shelf life.
The Hawks should be identifying these incredible postion coaches and learn everything possible from them to incorporate into what they do. Then always be scouting coaches to find the next great young coaches and develop them to the max.
It almost seems like HCs are more set on hiring “thier” guys and it needs to change IMO as player salaries go up teams need to find ways to give thier team every edge possible. I am sure PC/JS think they are doing this but are Norton and Schotenhiemer really the most innovative offensive and defensive minds they could find? Perhaps because coaching is as much about coaching fundamentals and technique as it is aout X’s and O’s.
Pete hired Schotty because he saw eye to eye with him on how to run the offense. It’s efficacy can be debated, but Pete doesn’t want an innovative OC. He wants a guy who is going to run the ball, not turn it over, play for field position, etc.
That being said, are you talking about the position coaches, or the coordinators? If a position coach is truly great and has a few years of history showing it wasn’t a fluke, then their next move is to a coordinator position or higher. McVay, Nagy, Pedersen, Kyle Shanahan… they all promoted up. Heck Kilff Kingsbury got a HC job in the NFL after having gone 3 straight seasons in college w/o a winning record and was 19-35 in conference play.
If anything, we need a new ST coach or TE coach. Special teams for us is more important than for most. Hopefully Myers helps with that, as some touchbacks would certainly help the cause. Our TE development has been pretty awful as well. Part of that may be scheme, but apart from Dissley’s early run last year, our young TE’s have been borderline useless.
I agree to an extent. Every post, including ones that i have wrote, that starts with ” If we can do things like the Pats” is mostly destined for failure. They have the greatest coach in maybe all of pro sports history. I would highlight that it is Belichick that makes it all go. It is really his coaching of his coaches that is truly special. As true as it is to see dudes like Jamie Collins struggle without him, coordinators and coaches that leave him are far worse off. Crennel, Weis,Mangini, Schwartz and Mcdaniels have all failed without him. Belichick is great at finding guys that echo his message and execute his plans. It is the same thing down at Alabama. Coaches leave every year and still Saban (a Belichick guy) keeps the program rolling. It is a true empire with one dude pulling all the strings.
One element that contrasts Belichick and Carroll is the different emphases on “traits”. Bill has stated that he is less concerned about athleticism and more focused on reliability. To paraphrase him, he said he wants guys that are always solid 7s on Sundays and not 10 one Sunday and 5 the next. Thus he looks for leadership, competitiveness, durability, consistency, and then athleticism. Outside of Gronk, I’m not sure how many SPARQy players they have had historically.
Very different approach to PCJS. It’s nice to get the complete package of great traits + competitive consistency but that’s a rare combo and I think Belichick has proven which emphasis is more important.
The things that I see from Belichick are:
1. The coaches have prepared the team to play their opponent. I mean really prepared them. Right down to practicing defense against the inside slant pass on the goal line.
2. Belichik and team talent is flexible enough to tailor the offense and defense to the opponent. One game they are a passing team, another game they are running the ball.
3. They got talent. Just offensively, they have Brady who is one of the best passers in the nation. They have Gronk and usually one or two really good wide receivers. They usually have three running backs who are capable of getting a first down. That’s a lot to defend against.
4. Aside from Brady and Gronk, who do you know that is on the team? Where are the prima donnas? Where are the loud voiced, arrogant defenders? Belichick keeps a lid on egos. It is well known that when you cross the Coach you will be traded or released.
Helps immensely to know what you have at the QB position year after year after year. And Brady isn’t making 30+ million per. (Well he IS but not all of it is from the Pats.)
Irrespective what Hawks are planning for Russel, i would sign him with decent contract so if there is an option down the road for another QB we can trade him. I don’t want to see RW going for 3rd round comp pick or couple of first rounder. Hawks should able to trade or play him when they think appropriate.
I would do same for Clark, Reed & Bobby.
If signing him to a ‘decent’ contract was in the cards we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Exactly. Getting him to sign a reasonable deal for the organization is the entire issue. If he signed a deal we wouldn’t need to consider trading him.
We need to sign some contracts keeping in mind that we are going to trade some of them in near future. It really hurts to see so many top players gone with no return. I understand not giving contract to Earl Thomas but in hindsight he got a deal in free agency. We can’t score on all players but at same time we should not lose on all (most). May be we need to sign little bit more money than JS/PC think.
Interesting.
I’ve been wondering about this. The new CBA is going to affect quite a bit in the league. It seems every team is kind of waiting around to see what happens. Very interesting +1
Two reports at the combine said the CBA will simply be extended.
I don’t dispute that reports may have suggested that the CBA will be extended but it seems illogical to me that the players would accept this. I think it is generally believed that the owners “won”the last collective agreement and for this reason just don’t believe the players would want to extend it. I think they will want to get their hands on a higher percentage and access to greater income streams. I can also see how the majority of the union members may not like how the few stars get richly rewarded while the many take so much less.
Player salaries have risen enormously and continue to rise — as does the salary cap.
Some sections of the media try too hard to say this CBA has hurt the players. It hasn’t. The players are seeing major increases in money in their pockets and the league is working pro-actively to better handle health and safety.
I don’t buy all this anti-owner sentiment I keep reading in some sections of the media. They’re allowed to make money too and without the owners we wouldn’t have a league.
Plus John Clayton is dialled in to the inner workings of the NFL. If he says an extension of the CBA is close I believe him.
Exactly, Rob. Too much class warfare nonsense on display with the owners vs players narrative. Both sides can and do win.
If we were to try and shop around for a RW trade partner, do you think that it could be kept quiet? You always hear these reports about ABC Team is shopping XYZ player. Just wondering if that is ENTIRELY intentional leaks, or if it could truly be done behind the scenes.
On that note, would you trade RW for Arizona’s #1 overall and Christian Kirk? 5 years of Kyler Murray on a rookie deal. A good WR on year 2 of his 5 year rookie deal. $30M or so in cap relief going forward.
Back to my prior question… if you floated this out to AZ and they had no interest, would you be concerned that they would ‘leak’ this to the press, in an effort to create drama within our club? Would this be considered bad business that JS would then tell other GM’s about, limiting AZ’s ability to even enter into negotiations with other teams as there is no trust?
Throw in a 3rd rounder and I might be intrigued. But trading your franchise QB to one of your group rivals is always a no-go.
I think it would have PROs and CONs (PRO: You know Russ and his tendencies and everything about him, CON: He could make you look really stupid), I think this would never happen, and I think it would be really-really risky.
If it would be:
Russ extension, but BWagz, Reed, Clark all have to walk
vs
We keep BWagz, Reed, Clark, but trade Wilson for basically Murray, Kirk and a 3rd round pick and like 5-10M CAP space, I’d be intrigued by it a little
I feel like Bobby + Reed + Clark + Murray + Kirk > Wilson
but maybe Wilson > Murray + Kirk
Mike Garafolo now implying on twitter that Baldwin might retire.
If he retires, wr would be my odds on favorite for the hawks first pick. It would also free up like 11 million in cap space right?
DL and WR are both viable options for the first pick (even if DB retires). It’ll come down to value.
But can we get an outside passrusher (EDGE/DE) who is really good in late 1st/early 2nd? Because we don’t need an OK/somewhat good guy. We have depth and potential (Martin, Green, Naz, QJeff, Jackson), so we need a talent like Clark.
Also, can we get a DT who can generate good pressure from inside and handle the run well?
Because in round 3-4-5 we probably can get a solid run stuffer and maybe a guy who is OKish against the run but have some passrush upside too.
With the first pick I want really good talent, not just a simply good player.
I feel like we cannot get a DL like Campbell for the WRs. I’m not even sure we can get a McLaurin level DL. Or if we can, we might get a similarly talented dude in the 3rd/4th
The DE options in the late first are not great, no.
You never know, it might not just be the injury/age situation. Maybe he feels something coming up with the Seahawk’s and Wilson. Not to speculate of course. However, who thought that the drama of last year with the cuts, trades and retirements could be topped this year. I had been hoping for a quick resolvement of the contract situations, a nice quiet free agency and a healthy draft class, it’s sadly never that simple though.
I’m ready for an off-season with NO contract drama and 10-12 draft picks.
We all are.
We need it in the worst way.
I hope it’s happens soon but I’m really worried this Wilson saga will drag on for at least another 12 months, maybe two years.
I think it will drag on for 2 years. Pete is nervie kinda guy, ‘big balls Pete’. The Seahawks have no need to guarantee a three year contract right now. Russell is guaranteed three years anyway just with three 1 year contracts. The Seahawks guaranteeing money just means there’d be dead money on the cap if they did have to trade him in 2 years or whenever.
Your notion of some team surrendering two 1st round picks to sign Russell in a year or two is plausible and an interesting discussion topic.
What’s no fun for all of us fans is we’d love the certainty of a contract because then we wouldn’t have to ‘stress’ about all this. I think you may be right about the drafting of a qb has a hedge. One thing about all his with Russell and his ambitions, it’s not ‘team first’.
I’ve made my peace with neither Russell Wilson nor Doug Baldwin being on this team in 2020. If they are, it’s gravy.
If DB retires does that influence Wilson’s desire to be traded? They have a special connection.
IMO doubtful it matters. RW’s career and compensation package will not be related to DB’s future.
It makes far more sense to sign Russell Wilson than trade him. Even if it means losing Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed. Not because Russell is great, but because of how limited Pete is as an offense coach.
Without Russell this team isn’t a playoff team. And I have a love-hate opinion with Wilson. He’s a frustrating, inconsistent QB with the personality of a Hallmark Card, but he wins in the fourth quarter, he distributes the ball, and masks Pete’s limitations with his ability to improvise.
I feel like Will Grier is a good QB prospect. And I’d love to draft him. But I think Grier could succeed under Doug Peterson or Sean McVay, or (why not?), Freddie Kitchens. Offensive guys that know how to tailor an offense around a young, flawed QB. Hell, Matt Nagy was able to make Mitch Trubisky look serviceable.
I think Jared Goff under Pete Carroll would look a lot more like Jeff Fisher-Goff than McVay Goff. And that’s the problem. Pete will never be that guy to help a QB coming out of the college spread transition to the NFL.
If Seattle wants to go cheap on QB, then you need an OC and team that will help that transition by instituting elements of the college game into the offense. Pete won’t do that. He had to be forced to finally do it Russell’s rookie year with the Read Option. Pete’s a pro-style run first guy. That’s his DNA. The QBs that run that in college are rare and the ones that do it well are top 10 picks.
And even if it worked and we won a Super Bowl, you’re in the exact same situation in four years. Better to just sign Russ now and trust in Pete’s ability to build a defense on the cheap. Pay for what you can’t develop. And I don’t think Pete can develop QBs.
More than that, I think we have Pete for maybe three more years? If we win a SB, I see Pete retiring, and if we don’t, I see us moving on. Flawed as he is, I’d rather have Russell.
As an aside, I’d be all for drafting a QB and trying to replace Russell like Favre and Rodgers, but so far, Seattle has been unwilling to draft a QB, and they certainly haven’t been able to develop one. But again, sign Russell to a four year deal, develop the replacement, then trade Russell if you’re confident in that replacement. But don’t put the cart before the horse.
If there’s one thing I want to achieve on this blog at the moment it’s to try and guide people down what I believe is the correct path.
This is not an issue of whether the Seahawks should be ‘cheap’ at quarterback. It’s not an issue of paying Wilson vs saving money.
The issue is Wilson’s willingness and possible desire to play on the tag. Because that is his greatest opportunity to max out his earning potential. And if Wilson is determined to do that, the Seahawks don’t even have a choice on whether to pay him or not. As Jason La Canfora notes, he might not even accept FORTY MILLION per year. Because he’s better off waiting this out.
Nothing I’m writing or arguing is about the choice between saving money at QB and going with a rookie. It’s ALL about a contract stalemate where you have a player, not unfairly, wishing to bet on himself.
There is one thing that Pete Carroll has done that would help a rookie or new quarterback. That is his emphasis on the run game. It takes some pressure off the QB and helps control the pace of the game.
As far as trying out other quarterbacks, they picked up Paxton Lynch from Denver. So I think the process of looking has started. In my personal opinion, there are not a lot of quarterbacks that I would want in this years draft that are also available in the third round or beyond. Grier is a possible exception to this.
If two first rounds picks is all you could get for Wilson (or slightly more) this year, then yeah it makes sense to franchise him till 2022 and have his replacement drafted and ready by then. Collect two first round picks anyways while getting two more years out of Wilson.
I think teams would be willing to give up more (plus give RW the mega contract) now. Why would they be willing and we wouldn’t? Well some teams have been starved of good talent and repeatedly make bad decisions. Let another team make the mistake of giving RW the mega millions contract. It just shouldn’t be us.
I am certainly leaning this way myself. The problem is I don’t see another team willing to do this. It’s different giving up 3 first round draft picks to get the best QB in the draft then doing the same and also paying out 40 million a year right off the bat. If I were JS and a team came to me and said we will give you 3 first rounders for Russ the first thing I would have to do is get over being shocked and then pull the trigger immediately. I just simply do not see this happening which leaves us with just overpaying for Russ or basically letting him go in 3 years time.
Option #A Russell Wilson taking up 20%+ cap space + top running offense in NFL + Average Defense – either Clark or Wagner or Reed.
Option #B Jacoby Brissett, Justin Houston and (2-3) 1st round picks + top rushing offense + a Top 3 defense.
I would choose option#2 without hesitation given our Coach and his philosophy.
Option B only developes if you have a accurate dynamic QB. I’m starting to think Pete knows Russell’s sweet spot. He is best suited as a threat that strikes when needed, not as a volume passer. Can Seattle find someone like that to continue the rushing success?
Sound at least a little like Grier? 😉
One thing that got them to the Superbowl that they don’t do much of now is use Wilson for runs or QB options. That used to be a huge part of the offense, to the point where Wilson had more yards than the running backs. Now they are trying to protect him in the pocket. I don’t think that has ever been his strongest game.
Rob you recently had an article about the Hawks being short sighted.
I today’s NFL with QB salaries being what they are any team not drafting and trying to develop a QB every single year is being short sighted.
I am not saying it needs to be an early pick every year but they should be getting QB lottery ticket every year IMO so that are not in the situation Seattle is right now.
Oh wow, this is news to me and could help us with the “big 4” issue. (Joel Corry and Clayton left out Reed, and so refer to the “big 3”)
So in 2020 we can actually tag two players if need be.
http://sports.mynorthwest.com/617010/seahawks-potential-russell-wilson-deal/?
I don’t think that is correct. I always understood it to be that a team could use one or the other, not both.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000785958/article/what-to-know-about-nfl-franchise-tag-designations
Each team can only use one of the above tags in a given year — meaning they can’t designate both a franchise and transition player. A player can be tagged up to three times by his team, with a bump in pay each time.
It is rumored that the new CBA will allow the use of both.
Maybe so, but the guy (Joel Corry) is saying that in the last year of the current CBA, we could.
Not sure you get to call yourself a salary-cap expert without knowing how tags work.
Yes, but the transition tag would allow a player to negotiate with other teams. And if a player leaves the Seahawks get zero comp. And this team has bad history with that tag…
I have been thinking this is the way Seattle will approach RW….. let him test the market and get an appropriate deal. 35M is the likely landing spot, like it or not. There is legit heat that is Mahomes continues to play at last years level, he could bust the 40M a year barrier. And you want to sign your guy before his deal hits the market…. because it will be damn near impossible to top that for any QB…
If they let him test the market he will surely be gone as someone else will surely pay more than the Hawks are willing to. Just need to be sure we do what it take to get compensation for him before we let him walk into FA and only get a comp pick in return. Hope we’ve learned our lesson well enough not to let that happen again.
Rob, will you be doing an article on the possible receiver options the Seahawks could target? It just seems like there are so many options not only in the round 1 and 2 area but later as well. I think my favourites at the moment are Debo Samuel and Terry Mclaurin.
I’ve actually written a few pieces highlighting most of the names (and some are included in this piece too). But yes, as we go along I will do a piece noting who I think are the most likely targets.
Interesting nugget on Twitter…
Avteam told McLaurin to have his phone on during Day 1… and Baldwin retweeted this.
Baldwin tweeted out a name to watch… Terry Mclaurin.
Suspect this is simply Doug admitting he’s an admirer. Can’t imagine he’s telling the world who Seattle is picking first 😂
But I’m glad he likes McLaurin, a player we were talking about within this community a long time before he tore up the Senior Bowl.
Dougie also tweeted this:
https://twitter.com/DougBaldwinJr/status/1108513264030212097
👀👀👀
I was actually thinking the other day that McLaurin had a similar personality to Doug. Could be his replacement lined up. Not saying I approve or not but I would not be surprised the Hawks pulled another ‘Penny’ like last year and picked up Terry on Day 1 to beat everyone else to the punch.
It’s a very realistic proposition.
Rob I wondering about this idea the green Bay Packers trade up and trade pick 30 and there 2 fourth round picks 114 and 118 to Seattle for pick 21 I believe the numbers work out green Bay has been aggressive this off season with there free agency signing and they have quite a few pics they traded last year with the seahawks.i kinda of think John and Pete would like to have 3 pics in round 4. We could still trade out of pick 30
I can see it happening similar to last year. PCjS anticipated the rush on RBs happening at the top of the 2nd so they went ahead and grabbed their favorite first. This year the same rush is likely to happen with WRs. If the Hawks trade down to the bottom of the 1st again and cant find another good trade deal then they might pull the trigger on their favorite whether its McLaurin or Deebo or Campbell or who ever they’ve identified as a ‘must have’.
Montana WR Keenan Curran. Has a workout w/Seattle in April.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vEpL8gxDJvk
Montana safety Reid Miller- 5’8, 202 lbs.
4.58 40
40″ vert
9’9 broad
11.41 60
Met with Seahawk scouts at Montana’s pro day. Played at Arkansas before this year. UDFA/STer type.
I wonder if that workout is Seattle’s pro day?
Parris Campbell also has a visual scheduled with the hawks
https://twitter.com/garrettstepien/status/1108517657131798528?s=21
I’ll also add this on the Terry McLaurin stuff…
1. Jon Gruden looked like he was in LOVE with McLaurin at the Senior Bowl. Like a father and son. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if #24 or #27 was reserved for McLaurin.
2. McLaurin used to be a season ticket holder with the Colts and they’re still in the market for a receiver. He’s exactly the type of player Chris Ballard goes for.
So lot’s of options for McLaurin in the back end of round one. Seattle included.
I’ve just updated the article with some thoughts on Campbell & McLaurin.
Also added the note that Doug Baldwin’s agent (Buddy Baker) is also Terry McLaurin’s agent. So that’s why he’s tweeting about him.
I saw that with Gruden but would wonder if they would spend high draft capital on a WR when they just acquired Brown and Williams?
I think they would. They still need another weapon
Great stuff. If we can come away with McLaurin and hill somehow that will be a great draft.
I don’t like either Ohio State wideout in round one. I don’t really trust what their agents say. Both will go on day 2.
Dline first please. The Dline group is great at the top, but isn’t as deep as we thought.
WR group is very deep with 4.4 and below guys.
As far as I’m concerned pass rusher should always be our top priority. Even if Baldwin retires I still think DL is a more important position than WR in the Seahawks hierarchy, although we do really need a WR.
DL with pick 1 and best WR available next. McLaurin would be a nice piece but Rob and the board have already identified plenty of nice consolation prizes at that position.
Normally I would agree, but the problem is exactly what you have stated. The DL group is great… at the top. Unfortunately we aren’t picking at the top. We are almost certainly trading back too, which would make us even further from the top.
It’s not unlikely that most if not all of the more surefire prospects at DL are gone by the time we make our first pick. In this scenario I don’t think PCJS will force themselves to pick whatever scraps fell through to them. PCJS are always about getting ‘their’ guys. If one of their guys at DL is somehow there when we first pick then that’s great, snatch him up. But if there aren’t really guys they’re in love with, they’ll most likely pass on the leftovers.
At that point if they see a run at WR coming, and I see that as a likely possibility given how many 2nd-3rd round graded WRs there are, then they will probably go ahead and pick their favorite of the bunch. We just saw this happen with the Penny pick. They saw the RB cliff coming and decided to go first on the group. Wouldn’t be shocked if the same thing happened again this time.
1, It’s not about their agents. It’s about tape and workout.
2, DLine is great at top15-20 picks. We won’t pick there. We might have guys like Hill, Wren, Nelson, Simmons, Polite, Allen, Winovich, Collier, Miller, Ferguson. None of these guys are clear plug’n’play “safe” guys. They all have questions about technique or athleticism or fit or character concerns. Not that much of a falloff between end of 1st/early second and third round
3, fast WR not equal good WR. Most of the later WR guys have big question marks. Either they have bad hands, they only know to run 1-2 routes, they can only separate with speed, they cannot block, they are too skinny
Much more of a dropoff in WRs between end of 1st/early second to 3rd/4th round than with the DL guys
Mike Lupati contact details:
Cap hit $2,562,500 (top 51 number)
Could get to $2,750,000 if he is active all 16 games.
Updated numbers for Seahawks 2019 acquisitions:
Clark…$17,128,00
Wright…$4,984,375
Fant…$3,095,000
Kendricks…$3,000,000
Lupati…$2,562,500
Myers…$2,500,000
Fluker…$2,125,000
Jefferson…$2,025,000
King…$1,400,000
Total Cap Hit for 2019…$38,819,375
Cap Space left…about $12.3 million
Could gain $2.8 million by releasing Chancellor
Could gain $4.1 million by releasing Mingo which they may if Kendricks gets no jail time.
If both happens then cap space goes up to $19.2 but you have to add the 52nd and 53rd player into the top 51 so the cap space would be around $18 million
Did you count draft and IR too? Or another 7-9 million will also come down from that number?
With 18M we could sign a somewhat bigger name guy (like Aaron Lynch) and probably extend 2 of our next year’s UFAs.
With ~10M I feel we can only extend guys (obviously we could lower their CAP hit with an extension, but I feel like we won’t really want to make extensions that are back-heavy).
Thanks for the numbers!
No, thats not Draft, IR and practice squad. Those numbers are all estimates where the above are all actual.
What is the timing for the Kam release and the recovery of some cap space?
Summer
It depends how much cap space JS need this year.
Pre 1st june savings are 2.3mil
Post 1st june – 4.8 mil. But then you have 2.5mil dead money for 2020
LJ Collier is top 30 visit for Seahawks.
Added to tracker:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J3d023YdKp9MFv7OQTy0YTssJ65qLd_aB0UJFGVHxPY/edit?usp=sharing
That tracker is missing a few.
Taylor Rapp (combine), Hakeem Butler (combine), Sean Bunting (combine),
Iowa S Amani Booker had a formal with Seattle too.
* Hooker
At Oregon’s Pro day last week – “Hollins is a potential NFL edge defender who was seen doing drills, with a Seahawks staffer nearby, in a post on his instagram account.”
https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/16/seahawks-show-interest-in-oregon-lb-justin-hollins/?utm_source=seahawkswire&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=pos1headline
Hollins always reminded me of a less pissed off Chris Clemmons.
Super active hands and quick feet, definitely been too light at Oregon.
Yes, this has appeared a few times now. I mean this in the nicest possible way — but I think we know by now that you like Hollins 🙂
I won’t comment on all these trade rumours. I have my own thoughts on that.
But if people are saying teams are more successful with QB’s on cheap deals, then we can’t rule out the Giants thinking the same surely? Haskins looks the real deal. He will be backed up by a top ground game with possibly the best catching running back in the league. They have just signed Golden Tate, and already have Sterling Shepherd and Evan Ingram. They are setting it up for Haskins. It doesn’t make sense to unload one large contract for another and mortgage the farm draft wise in the process.
Very little of the debate here is about cheap QB vs expensive QB.
Nearly all of the debate is about Seattle’s ability to actually re-sign Wilson.
True, and it should include the idea, that Wilson may want to move on to a big market franchise.
Plus… a rookie possibly won’t cut it for NY.
I honestly don’t think the Giants are thinking that way. Why sign Tate and trade for Zeitler unless you think you have the goods to win right now? And Haskins is terrible; I doubt they’ll like him that much. (Okay, he’s not terrible, but he’s not very good). My guess is they grab some pieces for their defense like an edge rusher.
Nobody thinks that McLaurin’s age might affect his draft stock even a little bit? And you all know he’s been my draft crush forever now, so I would like nothing more than the Seahawks to get him.
4/15/96? He will turn 23 next month which isnt terrible. They drafted Bruce Irvin when he was like 67.
I have 4/15/95, so he turns 24 a couple weeks before the draft.
Not trying to say he’s going to go R3 because of his age or anything, but I’m just wondering if some teams don’t look and think about how he will be 28-29 when he signs his 2nd contract instead of 26-27 and maybe that pushes him out of R1 consideration.
I guess the fact that he can provide instant value as a gunner while adjusting to the pro game will help his cause.
Hate to sound callous, but, I think his age is more of a McLaurin problem than a drafting team problem. A team isn’t going to be worried about his age for the second contract nearly as much as how much production they can get for him on the cheap in his prime. In fact, it might make some teams be even more willing to take him in RD1, b/c then they could get him on the super cheap with a 5th-yr option. I think the problem is ultimately his, when he goes to sign his big contract going in to his age 29 or even 30 season.
That’s right. Bruce was rushing the passer with a walker!
The birth date I found was 4/15/1996. If yours is right then 24 is slightly older than you want. If it is 96 then 23 aint to bad.
When we saw how the team handle the big4 issue, will shed some light on who they might choose. Also obviously it will depend how the board falls.
If they would trade either Clark or Reed, they have to pick at least one DL prospect early.
If they extend one or more of these guys I think they can trust the depth of this class a bit more.
Only the team able to know how they think about Martin, Green and Poona.
If they feel Martin will step up and Green can have a bigger role and might jump onto the stage they can focus on DT. If they feel Poona can be a regular starter next to Reed they might go EDGE early.
I feel the depth and the potential is far greater at EDGE/DE than inside DL.
QJeff, Naz, Green, Martin, Clark, Jackson, Kendricks can all rush the passer from the outside (DE/LEO)
As for DTs: Jamie Meder (???), Poona Ford, Jarran Reed
Not good depth, not good rotation, Reed solid, Ford might have potential, but yeah, I really feel this is the area they will focus more. And yep, QJeff, Green, Naz, Clark can also line up inside, but they more natural on the outside, so I’d still focus on the DTs.
I think they need to address DT with one of their first 2-3 picks.
As for WR:
I had a bit of a hard time thinking about the value for them. A simple #3 WR won’t have much catches…But now, also counting in that Baldwin might retire soon…It is important to handle this issue right now or next year.
Lockett is awesome, but we currently don’t really have #3 WR and soon we might not even have a #2
If they’d draft a WR now, he could be #3 and learn from Baldwin+Lockett and next year or the year after that he could assume #2 when/if Baldwin retires.
Because I think they won’t be able to get any of the clear top DTs (Oliver, Ferrell, Wilkins, etc), I feel they can select a DT with their 3rd round pick (maybe Omenihu? Ximines? Saunders? Wren? Collier? Christmas? Hill? Keke?) and they can select a WR in late 1st or early second round.
I think they could/should target WRs in this order: Campbell (yaaay he’ll visit them), McLaurin, Deebo, A.J. Brown, Marquise Brown, Boykin, Jennings, Hall
Campbell, McLaurin and Deebo is a potential late 1st rounder in my eyes. AJ and Marquise are early second rounders. Boykin and Jennings late 2nd round and Hall is a mid 3rd rounder.
1st round – Campbell
3rd round – Saunders
3rd round – Marvell Tell
4th – Wesco
5th – Derrek Thomas
5th – ???
This could be an amazing draft for me, I’d be pumped. Not sure Saunders will be available in the 3rd, but maybe with the rest of the really good Dlinemen…he might
Wesco could be also gone before the 4th, but I want a fast pure safety prospect, not sold on Hill/T2
Thomas could be a nice outside CB project.
Not sure for the other 5th, could be EDGE, RB, OG
This would immediately help with speed on the team. And this guy could help on ST from day one and situational role at least. But I can see them start in their first year too
I like your reasoning. My thought on WR has always been like QBs: either grab a special one early or might as well and wait to gamble on traits very late. Skip the middle class.
Only difference is our order of WR. Hakeem Butler is my only WR worth us taking R1, but I’m not sure he gets past the Steelers at 20. Rest of those guys are just okay, outside of Marquise Brown, who would be amazing as a deep threat in our offense. McLaurin is meh, rest of them seem like late-2nd worthy guys to me. I mean, they’re Golden Tate. That’s good, that has value, but that doesn’t get me pumped as a special player.
I don’t think Butler goes R1, and the especially not to the Steelers. They get all their great receivers between rd2 and rd6, pretty rarely do the go for a guy in the first. Frankly, the only guy who might warrant a 1st rd pick is Metcalf, but I personally wouldn’t touch him. Also, WRs absolutely can be had in the middle rounds. Lockett was a 3rd round pick. They won’t be OBJ or Hopkins, but there are some good and highly productive players.
Yeah these WRs might not be the usual 1st rounder guys, but some WR needy teams will pick 1-2-3 WRs in the first.
Butler has amazing athletic talents with his size, but he has mediocre hands if I know well.
To me the Hawks WR has to be exceptional at catching the ball and must have great instincts, route running.
I think McLaurin is not the biggest or fastest of this bunch, but the most natural receiver. He seems like the most similar to Baldwin from this bunch.
Campbell would first be a gadget guy with jetsweeps, and screen passes. But we need that. We have no solid screen game and we need some misdirection. And he can fly too, he can create separations. The secondary would need to respect him and Lockett’s speed, so it would be harder to them to help in run defense.
I’m not a fan of Metcalf, I don’t think he’d be a fit. But to be fair I’m against the big body receiver for the Hawks topic.
I’d be fine with Michael Thomas coming from the Saints, but I’m more into finesse guys who break ankles with route running and quickness, and really trustworthy with their catches.
I was also wondering if Dee Ford might perhaps steer them more towards Williams over Bosa.
be doing back flips.
The Jets that is.
Boy I hope not, Bosa is really good but I think Q is gonna be an absolute superstar, on the level of Donald, Watt and Mack.
Kyler and Williams both ending up in the West would be an agonising start to the draft.
I never understood this reasoning. Football games are infinitely more enjoyable when your rivals are good.
Playing in a weak division is a massive competitive advantage. Just ask the Patriots.
Interesting read on small school prospect Jamalcolm Liggins. Apparently strong interest from an unnamed NFC West team, and the article mentions John Schneider’s history and the Seahawks defense being ideal for him. Interesting frame, reportedly 6’2″, 205lbs. No clue about his length though.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/20/jamalcolm-jay-liggins-dickinson-state-small-school-cornerback-naia-nfl-draft-sleeper
Nice find. Let’s see if the Seahawks attend his upcoming pro day.
Nice find.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b-38nTDIbXc
Kid has excellent ball skills and body control. Looks like NFL talent to me.
Good news on Parris Campbell, nothing serious:
Per above by La Canfora, if the CBA and broadcast rights are being renegotiated, and if gambling money will eventually funnel itself into the league, isn’t there at least some chance that the salary cap goes up significantly? It would be a tremendous gamble, but isn’t it possible that signing Russ on a multi-year deal in the ~ $40M per year range ultimately turns out to be where the rest of the league is capable of spending on QBs too? Then you can have your cake and eat it too.
Of course, if Russ were to look around and realize that he’s just one of many earning $40M, then that number may lose its luster and the new shiny object could be $50M.
Yes this is very possible. But what La Canfora is insinuating is Wilson and his team are also anticipating this and therefore wouldn’t even accept $40m a year. Because for them, it makes more financial sense to play on the cap and wait for the new CBA (plus also to wait and see what Mahomes gets).
So there isn’t really a number the Seahawks can offer that is realistic to get the deal done — and Wilson won’t sign anything that isn’t crazy anyway.
How important is team/city though? If he plays out his contract, then accepts 2 tags, he loses some control over where he plays. In 3 years, who knows which team will have the cap space and need for an expensive veteran QB? Seattle might even move on. Can Wilson guarantee the situation will be better than Seattle/now? Doubtful.
Bird in hand…
That said, I agree with you. Wilson and agent will wait out the tags for mega-deal in free agency. The league knows he won’t extend except for ‘crazy’ money to a preferred destination. Would any team trade for our best case scenario: one last contract year + 2 tags? Is there another Minnesota?
I’ll enjoy the next 3 years, then embrace the change.
I don’t see Wilson fretting about where he plays. There will be multiple options if it ever comes to that. There will be one he likes.
The disadvantage to Wilson not signing a long term contract, is that he is only guaranteed money for one year at a time, and he only makes 92 million in next three years instead of 120 million.
There’s no way for him to earn $120m in the next three years.
His 2019 salary remains the same whatever. So unless you’re proposing the Seahawks will give him $45-50m for the 2020 and 2021 season, he’s not getting anywhere near $120m.
There’s a reason why JLC, myself and others are talking like we are and why Wilson is currently unsigned. And it’s NOT because he’ll make more signing a deal now.
Can’t they renegotiate the 2019 season too? Or offer a bonus for 2019? I’m just looking at offering him a straight 35 million/year for 2019-2021. With eventual settlement around 40 million.
No, they don’t have the cap room. Besides, every extension they’ve done so far has been that — an extension.
But even if they offered to give him a raise in 2019 — JLC has pointed it out in his piece and we’ve been discussing it on here for weeks. Wilson probably isn’t interested in signing a deal. He will be prepared to play on the tag and then negotiate in a more advantageous period. Whether that’s after Mahomes’ new deal (which will re-set the market) or after a new CBA that incorporates a whole new wealth to the league. It makes no financial sense for him to do a deal now. And thus, here we are. Stalemate with neither party talking.
Not surprised. Could easily see him being NYG’s guy.
I’m hearing the Giants are also all over Haskins.
Only report I have seen is the opposite…lol.
The Giants spent a lot of time with Haskins at the OSU pro day. They sent 10 people to watch him throw, including head coach Shurmur (and Chris Mara, senior VP). They also took him out to dinner. They’re interested.
Or they’re doing due-dilligence.
Browns didn’t even go to Baker Mayfield’s pro-day. Spent considerable, well publicised time with Darnold and Allen though.
Man this backstory is incredible. Also getting his masters degree. S-R-T.
https://gostanford.com/news/2018/12/20/football-always-grateful.aspx
Who’s cutting onions in here? Great story.
Nice thanks for sharing Vol. There are some amazing stories every year.
Post Wave #1 Free Agency Hawks Mock
I think the Hawks will trade back once or twice and end up with 7 picks total.
Pick #1 Terry Mclaurin (WR/ OSU) He just ticks all the boxes the Hawks look for as much as any prospect I have seen in recent years. Great character and team mate, impact special teamer, great speed and ability to seperate. With an aging Doug Baldwin and little depth at WR this pick makes so much sense IMO.
Pick #2 Trysten Hill (DT/UCF) Hawks get an ultra athletic DT with 1st round potential with pick #2. He would slide into a great young DT rotation with Reed and Poona. Rob has covered him in depth and I am sold.
Pick #3 Marvell Tell (DB/ USC) Long and ultra athletic could come in and learn Pete’s technique year #1 and fit in nicely almost anywhere in the secondary except SS.
Pick #4 Foster Moreau (TE/LSU) Another great athlete and character player. He is a good blocker already and has the physical profile to develop into a quality receiver. Wesco and Sample are other options here.
Pick #5 Justin Hollins (Edge/ Oregon) Not sure he lasts this long it my fingers are crossed. His tape is average but the length and skill set has really high upside.
Pick #6 Devin Ozigo (RB/ Nebraska) Under rated RB who tested well and just looks like the type of RB Pete seems to like. Great depth guy.
Pick #7 Alec Ingold (FB/ Wisconsin) Pete gets his FB.
These are all names we have discussed in depth here on the blog and I am sure the Hawks will pick some guys we know little about but I fee pretty confident that Mclaurin and Hill are two guys that are high on thier big board.
I am pretty confident they will draft a QB. At the very least a mid-late round developmental guy. Jordan Tamu is one I am keeping my eye on, Easton Stick too.
Agree with J. I love the players here, but something has to give.
We can’t put all of our eggs in the Paxton Lynch basket. John was looking at QB’s last year… I think we will take one this year, even if it’s mid-late round.
I like Jordan Ta’Amy a lot.
Love this. We really need to find a way to get both McLaurin and Hill…
We really don’t.
Hill is quick off the snap, but once he engages with a lineman it’s over for him, zero counter moves. I saw him get pushed around in the run game a lot as well. He’s high energy and fast but not a great football player yet due to his lack of playing time. He probably wouldn’t be ready to contribute for a few years.
McLaurin is fast but there are other fast guys who are also more explosive. McLaurin is from Ohio State so he’s getting hyped a lot, but I think there are plenty of comparable guys who will be around later on.
Who would you prefer if you don’t like McLaurin and Hill?
One name I haven’t heard much from is Clemson’s Austin Bryant. I remember Rob was mocking him in round one before all the Clemson players went back to school.
I see a very strong possibility that the Seahawks double dip on EDGE players in the draft, they have double dipped in the past, so a RD-5-ish pick of this guy may be in the cards after they get their targeted guy on day 1/2. IMO-5-th round picks are typically developmental picks & Crosby has some nice upside. He has length & agility and he performed well at the combine, especially in the agility tests, needs to add 15/20 lbs. of muscle & needs coaching up on his moves. His year 2 in the NFL could be great.
–EDGE-Maxx Crosby, E. Michigan(MAC), 6-047/255, 4.66/40, 32-7/8″-arms, 81″-wingspan, 36″-vert, 10′-2″-broad, — 135.8-pSPARQ, 1.3-z-score, 90.2-NFL%, – (Per sigmaathletes.com)
6.89-3cone (#2 of edge rushers at combine),
4.13-20yd shuttle (#2 of edge rushers at combine)
11.35-60yd shuttle (#1 of edge rushers at combine) -Currently Projected to go in Rd-5/6 or later.
2018: 12-games, 70-tkls, 31-solo, 19.0-TFL, 7.5-Sacks, 1-INT(1 TD), 3-PD, 1-FR, 4-FF
Career: 37-games, 162-tkls, 73-solo, 41.0-TFL, 20.0-Sacks, 1-INT(1 TD), 4-PD, 4-FR(1 TD), 8-FF
Highlight TAPE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b2ABXG-uK4
PFF Assessment: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-theres-more-than-what-meets-the-eye-with-eastern-michigan-edge-maxx-crosby
“”Only one other FBS edge defender (NIU’s Sutton Smith) has recorded more pressures than Crosby over the past two years than Crosby, logging a whopping 112 pressures (72 hurries, 22 hits, 18 sacks) across his 593 pass-rush snaps. His 20.6 pass-rush win percentage and 18.9 pressure percentage rank 11th and tied for third among the 121 FBS edge defenders with 400-plus pass-rush snaps across 2017 and 2018.””
Arm length may take him off our board.
The 1/8″ under the 33″ standard is more than compensated for by the 81″ wingspan — I would think.
To you and I, sure. But PCJS hasn’t drafted a single lineman with that short of arms. So maybe not for them.
Seattle has double dipped at random positions every year under PC/JS.
Mizzou RB Damarea Crockett- 6’2 (is that correct?), 224 lbs.
4.40 40
37″ vert
9’11” broad
Wow, impressive numbers. Nice catch.
I see 5-11 almost everywhere.
He did have 7 career fumbles though in his 3 years, so that’s something to look into.
Looks like some injury history to check out as well.
Yep…that’s too rich for me and I’m sure for PCJS.
Yeah, $12 APY wasnt going to happen here.
Did Indy add Justin Houston to that D?
I’m looking for day 3 guys and something kinda hit me in the face.
Day 3, undersized, quicker and smaller LBs. Keep an eye on that. I think Seattle is looking for that.
Not sure I agree there. They’ve looked at a couple of linebackers but I think they’re digging for UDFA.
Day 3-UDFA. Not a huge difference.
I guess I classify day 3 differently and maybe it’s just semantics. For me it’s late round 5-round 7. Round 4-mid round 5 I call mid rounds.
There is when you don’t have many picks.
BWagz, Kendricks, Calitro, Griifin. It’s not coincidental.
I see that Justin Houston signed with the Colts. 2 years 24mil. I was thinking that the Colts might be a team that might trade for Frank Clark.
BTW: Tony Pauline on Preston Williams pro day. http://draftanalyst.com/pro-day-report-colorado-state-colorado
During position drills he caught the ball very well.
There is much intrigue and interest around Williams and his playmaking skills. The Baltimore Ravens have an interest in Williams, as well as the receiver-needy Washington Redskins.
Right… and now let me pull up the many more articles noting that Williams is likely to go undrafted. Or let’s run through the numbers at his pro-day, because they were rubbish.
Forty: 4.53 seconds —- (would’ve been tied 19th at the combine)
Vertical jump — 31.5 inches (would’ve been tied 40th at the combine)
Broad jump — 116 inches (would’ve been tied 41st at the combine)
FWIW — Williams described that performance afterwards as ‘A-plus’.
Please people — I implore — don’t get fixated on one player and champion them every time someone says something not negative.
Williams’ tape is good but we’ve been here with so many players like this over the years, none of which have been drafted by Seattle.
Really surprised by the meh numbers from him.
I love Russell Wilson, Frank Clark and Bobby Wagner. But the numbers they are throwing around are making me sick to my stomach.
Even if you believe Russell Wilson could play through the tag and then sign a $55 million APY contract
for six years, here is how Russell’s money breaks out:
Seahawks Control
2019. $25 million
2020. $30 million. Total $55 million. Average: $27.5 million.
2021. $36 million. Total: $91 million. Average: $31 million.
Post Seahawks Control: $55 million dollar per year contract.
2022. $50 million. Total: $141 million. Average: $35 million.
2023. $52 million. Total: $193 million. Average: $38.6 million.
2024. $54 million. Total: $247 million. Average: $41 million
2025. $56 million. Total: $303 million. Average: $43 million.
2026. $58 million. Total: $361 million. Average: $45 million.
2027. $60 million. Total: $421 million. Average: $47 million.
The far right column is what the Seahawks need to match. Or beat.
The money will be there to sign him. It may make sense for the CBA to be finalized. Then the parties know what rules and structure they’re working with.
This isn’t as dramatic as it seems. And Russell is far has no plans to go anywhere. That may change as things unfold.
Brian, you can’t just make up a bunch of numbers and then say, “see, nothing to worry about.”
And nobody on here has ever suggested Russell has plans to go anywhere else. That doesn’t mean he’s determined to agree terms on a deal that works for the Seahawks though. I’ve consistently said over and over — compromise is needed from BOTH parties. I sense Wilson is determined to max out his earning potential. If the Seahawks don’t offer what he wants, he’ll go somewhere that provides it. It’s really that simple.
Rob,
I didn’t just ‘make up numbers’. It’s possible ‘worst case scenarios’ for the Seahawks / ‘best case scenarios’ for Russell to frame what the real numbers are that the parties will end up negotiating around.
If there is ANY outside chance that Russell could command $55 mil apy after the CBA is finalized, then what numbers the team will have to match or beat isn’t very complicated math.
Russell may want to have a $55 million per season contract be what’s printed in the headlines. So he’ll play through two tags. To get to that.
OR he could sign a $41 mil APY extension right now with six years guaranteed and it would be exactly the SAME money as playing through three years of the tag. And then signing a $55 mil APY deal for six years with 3 of it guaranteed.
Both are EXACTLY THE SAME MONEY.
And the parties both surely understand this.
With the CBA and a few other QB’s also due for new deals, it may make sense for both sides to wait.
But the above numbers help to frame the parameters for negotiation.
Part of the uncertainty is no one knows where the QB market will settle post CBA.
But your conclusion was, ‘This isn’t as dramatic as it seems’ and the numbers were there to try and amplify that point. And yes — those are just a collection of numbers you’ve conjored up. We have no idea whether that’s a worst case scenario. You’re spreading out a massive average salary over six years. What if Wilson says… I want a three year deal, $50m a year. Which, if the new league money explodes on top of a massive Mahomes extension, might not be totally ridiculous. Then we’re looking at a very different set of numbers. We have no means of projecting what is a best/worst case scenario following two franchise tags. That’s why I said you can’t really just propose a set of numbers and say, ‘there’s no drama’.
You more or less admit this yourself by admitting no one knows where the QB market will settle post CBA. And with that point accepted by all — I find it very hard to accept the notion ‘this isn’t as dramatic as it seems’. We have the teams franchise QB potentially willing to wait THREE SEASONS to negotiate a new contract and go year to year. We have a team equally needing to wait it out while not knowing if they’ll be able to afford an extension. How is that not dramatic, or serious? It’s the absolute epitome of dramatic. The last thing any team wants is a huge mystery over the future of the franchise quarterback. That’s what we’ve got. And that’s why we’re discussing it.
I can assure you Russell is not banking on maxing out his playing money.
How does Russell Wilson plan to make his true money? The longevity of his career, plus the market that maximizes his true earnings potential are where the real money is at.
You might want to inquire what other pursuits Russell and his team have on the table. Why did he lease an TON of space for that purpose here in Seattle? He does hire consultants too btw. They talk offhand as well. Without giving away specific info that would be. But anyone working with Russell likes to mention it.
You’re right he has ambitions though.
I just had not considered all the various pieces of the puzzle until reading your posts on the matter v
With respect neither of us truly know what Russell’s intentions are. We’re all guessing. I think it’s pretty clear he intends to max out his earning potential and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. If he wants to go for it in the best moment of his career to make money, I wouldn’t blame him. And that’s what I fully expect he will do. If it was all about staying in Seattle and not maxing out his earnings, we wouldn’t have people like Mike Garofolo saying a deal is unlikely in 2019 and they would’ve talked contract by now.
Here’s what I do know. Enough people are saying a deal this year is unlikely. Therefore, it seems apparent he intends to play on the tag. I increasingly also wonder if that’s what Seattle wants. That they acknowledge a deal isn’t likely this year, they’ll let him play out 2019 and then make a judgement call potentially when the CBA is extended this summer.
That’s what we know. And that is a dramatic or serious situation.
You’re right I don’t know for sure what his true plans are. But the various clues regarding actual choices and who he’s working with point to certain conclusions.
Why didn’t Russell lease a large amount of space in LA? Why is he working with local professionals on serious pursuits who only have a presence here? When there are firms here in Seattle who are also in other markets too? Sure it could all be relocated.
I could be way off base. But thinking it all through based on what I can discern from facts and opinions I think are just saying wtat they know, I think the true Russell team plan is to stay. And he will get paid for it.
Look, I’m not saying Wilson is definitely leaving. I wouldn’t expect him to start setting up businesses in New York and LA. I expect that he intends to stay in Seattle. But things change. Plans change. Wilson isn’t tying himself to Seattle by being pro-active in the city he lives. And he’s going to expect Seattle to pony up when the time comes.
I think this is in danger of going round in circles but I’ll say it one more time. Both parties HAVE to compromise. And I have no idea if either will be willing to compromise enough to get this done at a time when it appears harder than ever to get it done. And yes, that makes it a dramatic situation. Internally and externally. There’s no other way to describe it. The quarterback has an uncertain future. That’s just a fact, whether it works out in the end or not.
“Campbell clearly has an outstanding physical profile but there will be question marks about whether his speed can translate. He very much looks like a converted running back. Can he play with suddenness to match the straight-line speed? I think he can make it and wrote about some of the positives here.”
So he’s a cross between Percy Harvin and Golden Tate?
Golden was actually an outstanding deep receiver first and foremost at Notre Dame.