Friday notes: Will Grier’s arm and free agent targets

If you missed yesterday’s two-round mock draft plus a Seahawks seven-round projection, click here.

Will Grier had the strongest arm at the combine

This is interesting. Grier’s arm strength has been a point of contention during his college career. He has some mechanical flaws that impact his velocity. When he gets it right, however, he’s an extremely capable deep-ball thrower.

I still believe Grier could be a target for the Seahawks.

At the end of the 2018 season PFF published a piece called ‘best at everything’. It was a breakdown of every position or unit and named a player that succeeded in a certain aspect of play (eg best player to run a hitch route, best swim move, best box safety).

Grier was ranked #1 for throwing the go-route:

No college quarterback throws a better go route than Grier, a trend that has continued from a season ago. He leads the nation with 1,207 yards and 24 big-time throws on go routes, doing so without throwing a turnover-worthy pass. In total, he’s completed 35 of 68 go routes for 17 touchdowns, averaging a hefty 24.2 yards downfield per target, routinely leading his receivers so well that they’ve gained 32.8 percent of his passing yards after the catch.

He was also named the best quarterback at handling a defensive blitz:

Grier has read and diagnosed blitzes this year better than any other quarterback. When the defense sends extra rushers, he’s completed 85 of 124 passes for 1,303 yards and a remarkable 22 touchdowns against no interceptions. His 14 big-time throws against the blitz lead the country, as do his touchdowns — as he’s been able to find soft spots and holes in coverages despite extra blitzing defenders coming at him.

Those are two positives right off the bat.

In 2018 Grier ranked #1 among Senior Bowl quarterbacks for yards per completion (14.53 YPC). Kyler Murray was the top ranked quarterback overall (16.77 YPC). In comparison, Dwayne Haskins was only the 32nd ranked quarterback for YPC (12.95).

PFF also ranked him 13th among the 101 best players in college football last season, noting:

Grier was once again tremendous for the Mountaineers in 2018, finishing the year as the nation’s third-highest graded quarterback. He let it rip with the best of them, sprinkling in deep shots with great accuracy just as quick as he’d hit a crosser over the middle or perfectly lead his targets away from coverage with relative ease. In total, he averaged the fourth-highest yards per attempt at 9.7 while throwing more deep pass touchdowns than any other FBS QB with 20. He goes down as arguably the best deep-ball thrower over the past two seasons as he’s thrown for more yards (2,850), more touchdowns (36) and more big-time throws (54) on passes targeted at least 20 yards downfield than any other quarterback since 2017.

Here’s another article by PFF on Grier’s ‘deep passing prowess’.

Then there’s this — a study from FiveThirtyEight. They use something called ‘the quarterback prospect model’. It’s explained in detail in the article.

The test basically uses factors like completion percentage to project success probability at the next level. Russell Wilson topped the chart with a 99% success probability. The appearance of Johnny Manziel and Kellen Moore near the top challenges the usefulness of the chart. However, it’s interesting that Kyler Murray and Will Grier are ranked #1 and #2 as the quarterbacks in this draft class with the highest probability of success based on their formula.

The Seahawks have a big challenge ahead with Russell Wilson’s future. A contract saga is developing. Hopefully it comes to a conclusion where Seattle and Wilson agree terms on a long term deal. Here’s a reminder though on how tricky this situation is:

— Wilson can earn a fortune playing on multiple franchise tags like Kirk Cousins and direct a path to free agency in the future

— The Seahawks can realistically tag Wilson until 2021 but after that, the cost would be so high they’d either need a deal or they’d be forced to let Wilson become a free agent

— That means they have a two-year window to get a deal done and/or prepare for the worst case scenario of losing Wilson

Preparation has to start now one way or another. And they will prepare. That doesn’t mean you force the issue and draft any old quarterback. I keep presenting Grier as an option for all the reasons listed above. There are things about his game that the Seahawks will probably like. And while it’s far from a likelihood that they’ll draft him early — nobody should be surprised in April if it actually happens.

This wouldn’t be about replacing Wilson. It’s about insurance in your future. It’s an investment. Quarterbacks rarely lose value if they show even a modicum of talent. I don’t want to keep repeating this but the worst case scenario is you end up with a cheap backup for a few years (something they’ve needed). The best case scenario is you protect yourself against the nightmare of not being able to get an extension with Wilson. Sadly, that’s a possibility even if it’s a horrible thought.

Possible free agent targets

Twitter is awash with calls to pay Landon Collins what they wouldn’t pay Earl Thomas.

In reality the Seahawks are much more likely to have a modest free agency period with limited cap space ($33.3m) and an intense need to keep their own players (including Russell Wilson, Frank Clark, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed).

So here’s my best guess on who they might target and prioritise…

Priority #1 — J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker
Pete Carroll stated clearly at the combine that it was a priority to keep the offensive line together. He also confirmed several times during the season that he wanted to retain Sweezy and Fluker, even telling me in London they were part of the “new core”. This is a situation where it just seems likely to get done. The team want to make it happen, Sweezy and Fluker want to make it happen and their value is stronger to the Seahawks than it would be anywhere else.

Priority #2 — Mychal Kendricks
Kendricks has long been an underrated linebacker and his value showed in his handful of appearances for the Seahawks last season. Seattle’s willingness to pay and play him amid his legal trouble probably bought respect from the player. Assuming he avoids jail, an extension should be a formality. With K.J. Wright likely to get big money elsewhere, this would be a vital signing for the Seahawks.

Brandon Marshall
The Seahawks need a plan at linebacker. If they have to wait on Kendricks, they could sign a hedge. Marshall is well sized at 6-1 and 242lbs with 34 inch arms. He’d replace some of the size and length provided by Wright. He also ran a 4.09 short shuttle at his combine and the Seahawks appear to value that test at the linebacker position. After a down year in Denver, Marshall could be had at a value price.

Jermaine Kearse
The Seahawks only have 47 contracted players in 2019 (the third lowest number in the league). They need to add competition at certain positions and pad things out. Bringing Kearse back enables you to hedge against the receiver position in the draft. He also has familiarity with the quarterback and could compete with several others to make the roster.

Anthony Barr
I just have a feeling that if there’s one player they might be willing to pay a bit of money for it could be Barr. He’s at a good age (26) and is the kind of athlete they really like. He ran well in the three cone (6.82) and short shuttle (4.12) at his combine. He ran a 1.56 10-yard split at his pro-day. If he gets offers in the +$15m range this isn’t going to happen. In the $10-12m range, maybe there’s a chance. It depends on his market. He played linebacker at Minnesota but teams might take a shot on him as a pass rusher. Seattle could look at him both ways. Barr feels like the kind of player they’d see value in it just depends on the money.

Stephone Anthony
He’s had a disappointing pro-career after a great rookie season. Anthony was traded by the Saints and struggled to have an impact in Miami. However, the Seahawks like to collect former first round picks with untapped potential. Anthony ran a 4.56 forty and a 4.03 short shuttle at his combine. Those are good numbers at 6-3 and 243lbs. He’s unlikely to be expensive given his stalled career. The Seahawks might see his addition as a chance to add potential and depth at linebacker.

Matt Bryant
A year ago the Seahawks added 40-year-old Sebastian Janikowski to compete with Jason Myers at kicker. This year will they add 43-year-old Matt Bryant to compete with Sam Ficken?

No secondary suggestions?
The Seahawks have done their best work in the draft when it comes to defensive backs, with the exception of Bradley McDougald. Considering the way the safety’s ran at the combine, they should be able to find an option. They could replace Justin Coleman with a dynamic 4.4 runner at safety/nickel. There’s also a long list of tall, long cornerbacks available. This feels like an area to be addressed in April.

The Bills want Frank Clark?

According to Jay Glazer they have some interest…

Pete Carroll has said numerous times that ‘Frankie isn’t going anywhere’. This is still almost certain to be true. He’s a key player for Seattle and even if they got Buffalo’s #9 pick in the draft — they’d probably have to spend the pick to replace Clark.

Yes the money would be beneficial against the cap — but you’d be trading a proven quality player at a great age for cap space and potential. For that reason, any kind of deal seems unlikely unless it’s for an absolute kings ransom.

The one team I thought might be interested in Clark is Oakland. Jon Gruden reportedly singled out Clark as the key player for Seattle in London. The Raiders need a pass rusher in the worst way. And with numerous picks, they might be a more tempting trade partner.

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  1. John

    NFL Access is reporting Bills in trade talks with Frank Clark…

    • Rob Staton

      I’ve added some thoughts to the piece. Glazer says teams are calling about Clark (and Dee Ford and Jadeveon Clowney).

      Not a surprise really given Clark is 25 and a fantastic player. I would want a premium price for him though. A first and a third plus possibly something else like a player.

    • astro.domine

      I just can’t see it from an intangible perspective- Frank feels like a core part of the team and its ethos right now. It would be a sign of bad faith to the rest of the roster to ship him off to Buffalo.

      • Rob Staton

        That is certainly a danger. And Frank, of all the players, seems so invested in Seattle. He’s constantly tweeting about being a Hawk. I suspect there’s next to no chance of a trade. Seattle would want a mega return. They have no alternative. They’d just be creating a huge void on the roster and any high pick in compensation would need to be spent on a pass rusher of unknown quantity. So probably no chance of this.

        That said — one thing I hope they do consider in the future is being willing to trade high instead of losing players for nothing. Earl’s a great example. They might get absolutely nothing for him — just as they did for Sherman.

        If they don’t want to pay the going rate for Frank or any other player for that matter — make a deal and re-load.

        • charlietheunicorn

          The only team that would appear to have enough trade capitol would be the Oaktown Raiders.
          I’m not even convinced they would swing a deal for him, but let’s say they go a 1st (late), 2nd and 3rd for him, would you do a deal? Proven vs unproven seems like a big risk.

          • Trevor

            I would want all 3 of the Raiders 1st round picks for Clark.

            The Raiders traded away Khalil Mack because they did not want to pay him. Why would they trade for Clark and have to give him a similar deal.

            • Rob Staton

              Two first rounders would be a good deal for Clark.

              • SJVHawk

                I’d struggle not to trade him for a 2019 1st & a 2020 1st. My target is the 2020 1st because of all the QB’s entering the draft next year, if I don’t like a QB next year I’m confident somebody will and I will be able to get a huge haul for next years 1st. Also Buffalo is in the same division as NE and NE has a ton of pics this year so NE is gonna be real tuff to beat. I’d definitely research if I can make it work for the 2019 #40 2nd round pic & Buffalo’s 2020 1st round pic. Funny Pete was praising Clark at the combine where trade talks for Clark most likely happened.

              • Snax

                From our perspective, you’re right. Two first round picks is where you have our attention because one of those picks has to be used to replace Frank.

                I don’t see why Oakland would make the move for reason Trevor mentions. Sure maybe Clark has even more growth to get to Mack’s level and a multi year deal would prove a shrewd move. If that’s the case, no one would know it better than Seahawks brass. Doesn’t make sense

                However… I could see green bay calling John about Clark. They have a good relationship, and if Greenbay is in win now mode with Rodgers getting older, maybe adding a rusher of Clark’s caliber could push their defense over the top. CBS currently has Rashan Gary going to GB @12. Rather than take a chance on a player, you get a proven stud. But here’s the tricky part, GB is in a similar situation as Seattle. Only 40 players under contract and about $47 mil in cap space.

                A trade with GB for sure would cost them both first rounders. It would be interesting if they traded #12 and a player. But I’m not familiar with their depth as to say who they’d be willing to let go while not diminishing their chances at a SB in ‘19. Something to think about

                • SJVHawk

                  One of the pics doesn’t have to replace Clark it could be used on a pass rushing DT and we could trade our other 1st round pic to acquire draft pics. If we got Clark late second round there’s a chance we could do it again.

        • Sanders

          Clark and Jarran Reed are best friends on the team. If we trade Clark there is a good chance we lose Reed’s love of the team, and he chooses not to re-sign with the Seahawks when his rookie contract is over.

          Trading Clark is playing with fire; I think his teammates love him. I’d much rather trade Russell Wilson.

          • Rob Staton

            I’m not going to get into who I’d rather trade because I don’t want either to leave. There are a few things to consider though. One — this is just a tweet or two from Jay Glazer noting teams are calling so it’s likely a storm in a teacup. Two — It’s going to take a mega offer to get Clark and I doubt Seattle will do it. Three — I do want them to start considering where they can value for players rather than just inevitably losing them for nothing which is happening too often. Four — I like Clark & Reed but any decision made on their futures will not be influenced by their friendship.

            • SJVHawk

              I don’t want Clark to leave but he did assault Ifeldi could have killed him, brutal punch after he allegedly punch a girl in a hotel room after being suspended from Michigan. Clark also messed up his elbows, not saying this stuff means anything but these are facts. Also it common for players to “loose their shit” once they sign the big deal again not suggesting this will happen with Clark, I’m just saying.

            • cover-2

              I am a firm believer in trading players a year too early, as opposed to a year too late (which the Seahawks have been guilty of the last couple of years). That Being Said, trading Clark at this point of his career is four or five years too yearly!

              I disagree with your take on “any decision made on their futures will not be influenced by their friendship”. It’s more than a friendship; as a former infantry Marine…there is a willing to die for my fellow Marine type of bond that Clark and Reed have from the battles they have fought in the trenches. There are civilian friendships, then there is a different level of friendship/brotherhood.

              Trade a legit pass rusher in Clark for two unproven 1st round players, and also possibly losing the hearts and minds of your core defensive players = high stakes gambling.

              Anyways, that’s just my perspective.
              : )

              • Rob Staton

                Do you know them personally? I mean, I hope they’re that close. But it seems pretty hard to decipher that they have a Marine type bond.

      • Dale Roberts

        If I could trade Clarke and Reed today and get high picks in this draft as well as fill out my day 2 picks I’d do it in a heartbeat. Replacing the collective future salaries of Clarke and Reed with rookies would equal having a rookie QB which is the sweet spot in today’s NFL. The only defensive player I care about not pissing off is Bobby Wagner. He is the heart and soul of our defense and people don’t realize how young he is. Put good people around Bobby and they will buy in. That said Wagner made a clear statement about the Hawks deciding not to resign KJ, ““it would be telling’’.

        • Sanders

          Wags is still in his prime, even though he is not as fast as he once was. It is much easier finding starting linebackers as opposed to finding two pass rushing defensive lineman. I’ll take two young pass rushing defensive lineman any day over two aging linebackers.

  2. Volume12

    Seattle re-signed CB Akeem King. Gives them a big nickel and a nice contingency if they don’t resign Justin Coleman which I don’t think they will unfortunately. He’s about to get paid.

    Keep an eye on Iowa S Amani Hooker. I think Seattle is gonna take a liking to him.

    He is a fantastic prospect. Hybrid DB. High IQ whose instincts and recognition skills are up there with the best. Great ball skills. Perfect fit for zone coverages. Very, very similar to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

    • Volume12

      Iowa players on Amani Hooker:

    • cha

      Good signing.

      Was it King that put the clamps on Kelce in the KC game?

    • Rob Staton

      Hooker is definitely on my list to watch. Might do him next. Top-five in the short shuttle and three cone.

      • Volume12

        His athleticism doesn’t show up on tape 100%. The footwork/agility absolutely does though.

        Just a thoroughly aware, fundamentally sound, instinctual DB.

        • Rob Staton

          Just watched a game. Thought he moves very well — the agility shows. Has that lower body power and sneaky bulk that enables him to glide. Impressed on the first look. Could definitely imagine him as a big nickel type.

  3. Trevor

    I think there is less than zero chance the Hawks trade Clark. It would go against everything Pete and JS seems to stand for. They went out on a lim to draft him and he has been everything they could have hoped for both on and off the field. He is not a player you can replace.

    Unless something happened during negotiations where he stated he will not sign a long term deal and wants to test the market then I think this is just one of those stories than seems to make the rounds this time of year. After all of course teams are interested in Clark and would like to trade for him.

  4. Sea Mode

    I firmly believe the buzz that Grier will go in R1, so that’s where I think we’d have to take him, unfortunately.

  5. mishima

    Think how fun the next month would be with #9 AND #21…

  6. Isaac

    To me the bills would have to give up this years first and next to get clark. Then maybe a player. Is there a player at 9 that would intrigue me more than someone at 21? Not really. This draft has Murray and Bosa as the studs. From there 3-20 are about the same level of player.

    Even with 9 I would think they trade down atleast once. Then try to snag a top lb. Then trade down from 21 to pick up a couple more guys.

    We have to trade high at some point. Look at what the patriots do. Is anyone surprised when they trade away their good players. Maybe it’s time to join them. Jarran Reed too.

    Maybe I’m taking this to far now but we need something in return. Versus always letting these guys walk.

    • Volume12

      Speaking of NE, did they finalize that deal for Michael Bennett?

  7. Aaron

    Wouldn’t a team that wants Clark have to give up two firsts this year to get him? Wouldn’t that override the franchise tag? Can’t see any team spending that much.

    • Rob Staton

      Not necessarily. If they sign him to an offer sheet, Seattle would have an opportunity to match the deal or get two first round picks from a team. However, the Seahawks can trade Clark for whatever they want. It doesn’t have to be two first round picks. But it won’t be any more than two first round picks because if it gets that far, someone will just sign him to an offer sheet.

      • SJVHawk

        Just pray someone signes Clark other than Oakland! I’m stressing if I get Oakland’s late 1st round pics and Oakland pays him 19 million. What the hell are we gonna do with 3 late 1st round pics? Or 19 million a year is something I’m pretty sure I can’t handle.

        • Rob Staton

          It’d be the #4 if he signed an offer sheet

    • teejmo

      Last year the Dolphins franchised Jarvis Landry, only to ship him off to the Browns. The return? Just a 2018 4th rounder and a 2019 7th. Of course, usually franchise players net a good deal better of a haul than that, but it’s as recent an example as I can recall.

  8. Zxvo3

    Rob, do you have any thoughts on Kwon Alexander? Thought of him when I saw Frank Clark trying to recruit him to Seattle on Twitter.

    • Rob Staton

      More of a MIKE

      • red

        Kwon Alexander tore acl not sure he would be ready early on.

  9. Rob Staton

    Any takers for a Buffalo trade like this:

    Bills get Clark & 21

    Seattle gets 9, 40, R3, R4

    That way you get up to seven picks and you pick in the top 10 and save $17m in cap space.

    • Hicks

      What are you smokin Rob?!? We give Buffalo Frank AND #21, in exchange for #9 and #40?? The third and 4th still doesn’t make up for the difference in value. Look what Oakland got for Mack, a deal for Frank should be in a tier just below that.

      I’d maybe consider #9 and #40 for Frank straight up. But this is one of the best edge rushers in the league in his prime. Sure you gotta pay him too, but even if buffalo landed Bosa at 9, Frank is already established and proven. You’re not going to draft a better edge who’s going to be a sure bet

      • Hicks

        *** #9 #40 plus 2020 #1

        My bad typing too fast

      • SJVHawk

        If Seattle is worried about Frank’s injuries then any large haul is worth it!

      • Rob Staton

        1. It was simply a proposal

        2. I love Frank but he isn’t Mack

        3. You’re not just getting a high pick (#40) but you’re filling out your draft (which is the mission this off-season) and acquiring a top-10 pick.

    • SJVHawk

      No I would see what I can do with Indy first they have 1st round pic #26 and 2 2nds #34 & #59. I would go after Indy’s 2019 2nds and Indy’s 2020 1st round pic. Indy has a great QB so they shouldn’t hesitate to give up a 2020 1st round.

      • Rob Staton

        That’s fine but Indy might not want in

    • WALL UP

      As Kevin Calabro would say, “Ah.. No!”

    • C-Dog

      I love Frank Clark, and I do not use that term lightly. I root for the guy, I enjoy watching him play, I’ve enjoyed watching him evolve each year, I love his wacky tweets, and it didn’t even bother me when he punched Ifedi, frankly. I would be thrilled to see Seattle sign him long term. Thrilled. That said, if that was the Buffalo offer, I seriously think Seattle should consider it, and it pains me to say it, but I think they should probably take it.

      It would afford Seattle the opportunity either stay at 9 and potentially draft one these premier defensive lineman, or even more likely, trade back and acquire more picks (which they probably want), it affords them the opportunity to be perhaps a little more aggressive in free agency, and I think ultimately, it gives them more cap to manage players down the road in Wilson, Reed, and Wagner.

      I was going to post about this earlier, but Mike Salk brought up a really strong point on the radio this morning regarding Clark. He referenced back to the 2013 Super Bowl team, and noted that Seattle didn’t win with a great pass rusher, they won with a number of good ones in Avril, Bennett, Clemons, Irvin, McDonald, and others, and they were all on bargain contracts. He then referenced that if you are going to pay over $50 Million to two players in RW and Clark, it’s not going to leave a lot of room to get that kind of depth again. I think he made this really compelling point; instead of paying a really great pass rusher in Frank Clark $18 Million, how about paying $9 million for two good pass rushers?

      If we consider the depth of the DL class being particularly strong, there might end up being a market for some bargain deals. Maybe they are able to bring in Malik Jackson and Dante Fowler or Ezekiel Ansah short term, and hope Rasheem Green and Jacob Martin take the next steps forward along with drafting a pass rusher such as Burns.

      I don’t know if they do this, I tend to think Carroll meant what he said but Frankie not going anywhere, but I will say this, if they do end up trading Clark, I think that more than likely signals they are preparing to make RW the richest football player on the planet, and I see to recall Carroll saying Golden Tate was their guy and wasn’t going anywhere either. Things can have a funny way of changing in the off season, especially after the Senior Bowl and Combine.

      Also, it’s fair to note the Dan Morgan works for the Bills now, and used to be with the Seahawks, and I think there could be an interesting tie into this there. Frank Clark might be pass rusher 1 for them out the three Glazer mentioned.

      • SamL

        I don’t think trading Clark is likely, however, you brought up some good points. If we were to trade clark I’d want it to be for the #9 pick and a 3rd and 5th. We could then go on to get two good not great pass rushers. Enter in Anthony Barr for 10-13 mil a year and Justin Houston for 7-9 mil a year. We would then be able to have our pick at blue chip talent. Devin white, Dexter lawrence, Christian Wilkins, clelin ferrell, ed Oliver, t.j. Hockenson, or trade down for even more picks. Would I do it? I’m not sure, Frank is a great team player that wants to be in Seattle. Would Pete do it? We’ll see.

      • Martin

        I would claim that our pass rush is the area of the team most in need of improvement so I’d be extremely surprised if Clark was traded – but the salary cap (and Wilson’s impending contract) is the one reason why I can imagine it happening. I’m always nervous about trading a proven commodity for draft picks. No matter how well you think your team drafts, it is inevitably a real gamble. This is proven league-wide over and over again. You get two first rounders for Clark….history suggests on average only one of those picks will become a long-term starter. I know every contract is a gamble, Clark might get injured, rookie contracts can be relatively cheap etc, but I think the draft picks really are a much bigger roll of the dice and I wonder whether we sometimes overvalue them.

      • cover-2

        You made a strong case to trade Clark, but there are way too many “if’s” and “but’s” projecting how it plays out. Bennett and Avril were proven players that we signed to prove it deals. Both ended up being top-15 type of pass rushers in the NFL. Clemons and McDonald were gambles that worked out for the Seahawks. IMO we hit on all four of those moves with those players, it was a combo of good player personal moves & luck.

        Green was uninspiring as a rookie, but we hold out hope because he was drafted 3rd round and he was a former 5 star recruit. Martin flashed as a rookie, but he may have benefited with Clark and Reed on the d-line along side him.

        Fowler may be a good signing, but he is a knucklehead and not a core player. Ansah is a part-time employee with his injury history. Fowler and Ansah are bigger risks than Bennett and Avril were.

        • C-Dog

          Avril was a proven pass rusher in the league, but Bennett wasn’t really known for that. He was regarded more as a solid run stopping defensive end in Tampa. It was when he got back to Seattle that he was utilized as a pass rushing three tech more.

          Green didn’t have a great rookie season but he came into the league at the age of twenty. I would give him another season before judging. He could end up being a pretty nice player.

          I think the idea is to get more numbers pass rushing than relying on one or two players was Mike Salk’s point. I think it’s interesting.

    • Dylan Leptich

      Take the & 21 out of it and I would do it. No way I swap firsts though.

      Bills – Clark
      Hawks – 9, 40

      That I would probably do.

      Bills – Clark
      Hawks – 9, Buffalo’s first in 2020

      That I would definitely do. I doubt Buffalo would be willing do to that.

      • Rob Staton

        The Bills aren’t going to trade two top-40 picks.

        I think the best they could get is a R1 + R3. Which is why I proposed this. Because it helps the Seahawks fill out their board with R2, R3 and R4 picks plus they get to pick in the top-10.

    • Hawktalker#1

      Probably something closer to:

      Clark (and no picks) for Buff 9, 40, R4

      • Rob Staton

        They wouldn’t do that

    • EranUngar

      Rob, in your mock yesterday you had us trading back from 21 to 40 with the Bills in exchange for “They give Seattle a third, fourth and fifth to trade up 19 spots”.

      So, the net trade you offer us Frank + R5 for #9.


      • Rob Staton

        Not really — I mean I proposed a trade where the Bills might want to move up. We can’t just tack on the Clark trade as part of that. In this new scenario they may have zero interest trading from 40 to 21.

        • EranUngar

          Still, if the 21st pick is worth a 3rd, 4th and fifth than the net value we get for adding Frank is just giving a fifth for #9.

          Even if I wanted to trade Frank, I’d expect a much higher return.

          • Rob Staton

            It isn’t worth that. The drop of 19 picks is worth that.

            If you really want to add Clark to this, you’re dealing him for a top-10 pick.

  10. DJ 1/2 Way (Sea/PDX)

    Could this be the Seahawks releasing info to try to get Frank to sign a reasonable deal? If he wants to stay he should consider it. It is cold in Buffalo, with lots of snow.

    Given the numbers crunch, it makes sense for the Seahawks to move somebody. Frank’s injuries might be a warning sign, or they might mean that he can kick ass even when hurt. Next year he might stay healthy and compete for defensive player of the year.

    There is an inherent advantage of an offer sheet from a team with a higher draft pick. Two firsts from the patriots are almost two seconds, while two first from the Bills are likely top ten.

    Would you rather have Frank at $18 million or Earl at $10 and KJ at $8million plus a couple of First round draft picks?

    They should look at this and sign Reed right away.

    • Rob Staton

      I’d personally rather have Frank at $18m than Earl + KJ. He’s much younger for a start and not as injured.

  11. KD

    I’m absolutely loving the flaccid attempts by some people in the media to push the Kyler Murray “heightgate” thing. “Blah! There’s no way he’s that tall. I was measured at 6-1, but i’m actually 6-3, so there’s no way he’s that tall! Blah!” HAHA! What blatant propaganda to push in the hope that he falls.

  12. Adog

    Maybe a line got crossed in the recent contract talks and the Seahawks are shopping Clark. The phallus of human nature is swinging dicks. We have Clark, Hawks fo, and we have his agent. Whoever is telling Clark that a franchise tag is a good option (his agent)….does not represent his best interest. Obviously it’s great if you’re the agent … negotiating a deal every year, but if you’re the player…a de(not a QB) at that …I don’t see long term benefits. Insurance policies sound good…but feel dreadful.

    • Dingbatman

      Frank Clark doesn’t have to use the tag every year. His leverage is that he only needs to tie it up until they need to use it on Russell Wilson then he hits the open market. He is certainly in position to force their hand and it seems like he may be doing just that.

  13. Awsi Dooger

    Stephone Anthony would be a mistake. Good special teams player but no instincts whatsoever from scrimmage. It is almost comical how bad he is at diagnosing anything.

    It would be like another Dion Jordan experiment but even less upside

  14. Eburgz

    Clark to Buffalo? Sounds like a threat to Clark’s camp. I’d want their #1 and change to consider it. Even a top 10 draft pick in this draft class likley won’t produce close to Clark, but the cap savings and the potential would be tempting. I’d prefer to sign him long term.

  15. SJVHawk

    Right now Clark is in control if he does not sign a deal we pay him 17 million. It’s probably gonna come down to the Seahawks deciding to match an offer or take 2 1st round pics for Clark.

  16. Kenny Sloth

    Waterboy > Forrest Gump can’t change my mind

    • Kenny Sloth

      Any Bobby Bouchers in this class?

  17. Rob Staton

    To put a bit of meat on the bones of the Bills proposal (which I’m not saying I’d necessarily go for, just throwing it out there)…

    What if Seattle giving Buffalo Clark & 21 for 9, 40, R3 and R4 led to the following:

    — Seahawks make a small trade down from #9 and get another third rounder
    — Seahawks select Ed Oliver
    — Seahawks have eight picks including, let’s say, 12,40,R3,R3,R3,R4,R4,R5
    — Seahawks sign Anthony Barr in FA

    Is that preferable than having Clark on a one-year $17m deal and four draft picks?

    • Kenny Sloth

      Not for me man. I want to build upon our current squad. Ed Oliver and Anthony Barr definitely aren’t movin the needle for me.

      Like objectively there’s a case to be made there, but the team doesn’t exist in a vacuum and chemistry is finally coming back post LOB.

      Frank Clark was the guy the Raiders singled out for a very good reason.

      • Rob Staton

        They might lose Clark for free in 12 months

        • Sanders

          odds on losing Clark in 12 months is highly unlikely. Seahawks want Clark and Clark wants to be here…he has taken ownership of this defense in his own words.

          Also, Ed Oliver is a liability against the run…which is Coach Carrol’s main concern. Poona Ford showed out the latter part of last season. P Ford is our next Mebane and Reed is our starting 3-tech. Trading away a legit RDE for a situational pass rushing DT is not the best use of resources. If we were trading Clark to acquire a starting QB, then maybe that makes sense. But even then, we are a run first team…we don’t necessarily require a top-5 NFL QB. Whereas our defensive scheme requires our front four on defense to create pressure on the QB, because we are not a blitz heavy team.

          • Rob Staton

            I wouldn’t say highly unlikely at all. He’s now on a one year $17m deal. Anything could happen.

      • JC3

        I still think they will sign Clark long-term or else he is off to Cleveland for Zeitler plus changes already.
        FA I would like Hawks to sign:
        1. Preston Smith – younger and better than Barr
        2. Za’darius Smith – a rusher opp. Clark
        3. Adam Humphries – Must prepare for life without ADB after 2019

        • Sanders

          I like Za’darius Smith as well, he seems to be an underrated free agent. I would like to get him on our young talented D-line. He could be a surprise to the league!!

    • Dingbatman

      In addition to the above you might add.

      Increased ability to extend Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed.

    • Sea Mode

      (With the disclaimer that we don’t know what has gone on in talks behind closed doors, and assuming it’s just a normal, hard negotiation and there is no broken relationship or completely outlandish “I want to beat Khalil Mack’s deal or nothing” demands, for the sake of the exercise, and in the spirit of PC/JS “we listen to every offer”…)

      I think Clark is just waiting for Lawrence or Clowney to get paid and set the market at higher than what the Seahawks are currently offering. Something tells me the Cowboys will be first to buckle and cough up $20m+.

      While the scenario you present is tempting to fix our draft mess and cap, and because we might be scared he could leave for two lesser R1 picks if he signs an offer sheet with a better team, or for free next year, I would turn down that deal. I would want their #9 and 2020 R1 in exchange for Clark, R3, and our 2020 R2 pick. A Buffalo 2020 R1 pick could easily be top 10 again or even top 5.

      Then if they also want to get back into R1 this year for, say, Parris Campbell to give Josh Allen a target, we can trade down from 21 to 40 in exchange for their 2019 R3, R4, R5, as proposed in your mock yesterday. With another small trade down from #9 as you propose (MIA gives us R3 to move ahead of DEN for a QB), that would leave us with #13, #40, R3, R3, R4, R4, R5, R5, and two 2020 R1 picks.

      We pick Dexter Lawrence at #13, right where he fell in your mock draft yesterday.

      Clark is just too important to this team and, besides trying to replace his production on the field and his leadership, I feel the rest of the guys will feel let down unless it’s a mega offer we couldn’t refuse including two R1 picks. What does that mean for their hopes of getting paid by Seattle down the line, if we’re not willing to reward a guy who got us 13 sacks, 10 TFL, 3 FF, 1 INT in his contract year?

      Alternately, I might consider Clark + 21 for #9, #40 and 2020 R1.

      (And on a side note, Ed Oliver is the pick? The guy with short arms and without a real position fit? Have you seen something new in him? And might Justin Houston be a 2-3 yr stopgap signing we could look to make with the cap space before the big hits from Wilson, Wagner, Reed kick in 2-3 yrs down the line?)

      • Rob Staton

        I don’t two first rounders for Clark is likely.

        I proposed Ed Oliver just because he’s a player likely to be available who plays DL.


      To me this is greatly prefferable.

  18. RWIII

    Folks. I think everyone is missing the point. After the 2019 season Seattle’s top 4 players could be free agents. Russell Wilson, Frank Clark, Jarran Reed and Bobby Wagner. Let’s say hypothetically they did sign those four players that would put the Seahawks in salary cap hell. Russell Wilson 35mil. Frank Clark 20mil, Jarran Reed 12+mil, and Bobby Wagner 12+mil. 79 mil for four players. The chances are highly unlikely the Hawks are able to keep both Clark and Reed after 2019. Don’t get me wrong. I love Frank Clark. It’s better to trade him now then to lose him in free agency next year.

    • Sea Mode

      The Seahawks paid Wilson, Wagner, Earl, Kam, and Sherman top dollar when everyone thought they would lose one of them for sure. We were saving on OL then, we are saving on RB and the secondary now.

      What I’m saying is, it can be done. We should WANT to pay our best players. That’s what a good team with a healthy cap does. What doesn’t work is overpaying for mediocre players.

      • RWIII

        Sea Mode: Seattle did pay top dollar for Wilson, Wagner, Sherman, Kam and Earl.

        Couple of points. First, Russell Wilson is currently making 22mil per season. His next contract will be in the neighborhood of 35mil. Then you have Frank Clark who will pull down in the neighborhood of 19-20 mil. Which is more than Avril/Bennett combined to make.

        In fact Wilson 22mil, Sherman 14mil, Wagner 10mil, Kam 7mil, and Earl 10mil is 63mil. Wilson/Clark will be in the neighborhood of 55mil. That’s 5 players making 63mil vs. 2 players making 55mil. Massive difference.

    • JC3

      You have to minus Wilson and Bobby’s current cap @ 40 mil.

  19. Sea Mode

    Very existential vibe to it, but still an interesting read:

  20. JimQ

    RE the original subject of this post: QB-Will Grier (My favorite QB draft pick for several months now.)

    If he were to be available at pick #84, or with any pick the Seahawks receive in trade downs that is a bit earlier than #84, that would likely be their best and only chance at drafting Grier. This, assuming their 1-st pick in the draft fills an obvious need at EDGE, DL, LB. PC/JS would then be in the best position to get a QB like Grier on their next pick. It seems pretty hard right now to gage exactly where Grier will go in the draft, I’ve seen everything from 1-st to 5-th round rankings for him. Most seem to say he’s very much a “system QB”, which is perceived as a negative, but what if he at least somewhat fits into your teams “system” like the long ball strikes after running extensively.

    RE: The Seahawks WR corps.
    Seahawks love to run the ball extensively and strike deep on passes, so that’s what I call a system.
    A player that might fit that system of deep ball passing & is a bit overlooked as a true deep threat is:

    WR-Andy Isabella. (I know Rob has mentioned his “choppy feet”), however, after watching a lot of film, I see he regularly uses “jab steps” as a part of route deception. He looks like a “water bug” type receiver with lots of subtle movements in addition to sudden speed Also note Isabella ran his 40 in the low 4.3’s at the combine, which would probably make him the fastest Seahawk – and then there is this from PFF.

    “”No FBS receiver was better at hauling in deep passes this season, leading the nation in receiving grade on throws targeted at least 20 yards downfield. Isabella hauled in a staggering 705 yards on deep shots, on just 14 receptions, good enough for an average of 50.4 yards per reception. That’s over half the field on a single reception! Isabella led the nation with nine receiving touchdowns on deep passes. On all passes, Isabella’s 4.16 yards per route run was the top mark in the nation among receivers with at least 200 snaps in route this season, a figure that ranks fifth all-time at PFF, behind Rashard Higgins (2014) – 4.54, Amari Cooper (2014) – 4.25, DaVante Parker (2014) – 4.25, Michael Gallup (2016) – 4.34.””

    Isabella’s stats:
    2018: 12-games, 102/1698/16.65-YPC, 13-TD’s, 8.5 rec/game, *141.5-yds/game, (#1 by a bunch) 2-95+ yd/games, 4-100+ yd/games, 1-200+ yd/game & 1-300+ yd/game, (includes 15/219/2 game vs: Georgia on 11/17/18). NOTE: #1 in FCS in reception yards, #5 in FCS with 13 receiving TD’s.
    PFF’s College All-America First Team @ Wide Receiver. (AND – He’s very Likely a NE Patriot target.)

    Will Grier= best deep ball thrower.
    Isabella = best deep ball receiver. Sounds like a match to me.

    Additionally, If Grier were to be drafted, he has a couple of his WR teammates (Sills, Jennings) in this draft, so, would that WR familiarity not help in Grier’s development as well? If they pass OR miss on Isabella, one (or both) of those two receivers could & should logically be Seahawk targets as well.

    After closely following the draft for 10 years now, this year is the most frustrating to me with only the 4 picks going into the draft and so many contract extension questions and trade possibilities, kind of makes your head spin. Thanks to Rob for providing a calm environment and his very thorough thinking on possibilities and probabilities that we all get to examine and discuss rationally. There is absolutely no better place to go for Seahawks draft information – period.

    • Rob Staton

      I just don’t get the fuss with Isabella.

  21. GoHawksDani

    I think this Clark-trade rumour is just media bs.
    Clark mentioned numerous times that he loves Seattle and the Hawks.
    He said he has no problem with a franchise tag
    Pete said they want to keep Clark

    So why the hell would any party flip the table when it’s good?
    Only one reason: Clark had some not so good news from a doctor maybe and he wants more GTD money? (100 for 5 years with 55 gtd is much more than 17 mil)

    But if something is up and it’s a real story then I’d be willing to trade Clark for either of these ransoms:
    1, Two first round this year
    2, First, Second, 5th, 6th
    3, Ship #21 for a top10 pick and also get a second round pick, a 6th round pick, next year’s first and 4th round picks

    1, Probably only trade partner could be Oakland. I want a top10-15 pick and a late first round pick.
    This would let us get a passrusher with potential and maybe Grier with #21? And we could trade the other first round pick for additional picks

    2, This could fill some gaps (2nd, 6th) and we could either load up on picks big time (trading maybe both 1st round for mid round picks) or we could stay put and pick two 1st round guys and still has some picks left. Or we could pick once in the first and trade the other first round pick.

    3, This would widen our potential trade partners (first option probably only OAK. The second is any team that has a lot of picks, this could be anyone who wants Clark). With a top10 pick we could get a hopefully dominant pass rusher…or we could select Grier (top10 might be a bit of a reach though). We would then have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th. This deal would not be a good deal for now. But it could be a good deal for the future: Free up CAP money for BWagz/Russ/Reed. Release next year’s tag-dilemma. Get another 1st and 4th.

    I wouldn’t trade Clark if his medical stuff is OK. He’s still on the rise and he’s a baller. He could be one of the key guys on defense for the future. If he wants a long term contract give him 100/5/60 (17 – 19 – 21 – 22 – 21 with GTDs: 17, 13, 12, 12, 6). Then give BWagz a contract: 77M, 5 years (~15m APY), 45M GTD (12M in 2019 (lowering his CAP hit) fully GTD, then (salary/gtd): 14/8, 17/10, 17/9, 17/6)
    Then we only have Reed and Wilson.
    Most likely Wilson gets the tag, so we need to give Reed a contract. But first I want to see if he’s dominant or just had a good year. So I’d try to give him a new contract mid-season

  22. JC3

    I got a feeling they are going to play dead this year in FA, get rid of as many veterans as possible, then carry over large sum of cap space to sign Wilson @ 40 mil per next season.

    • Rob Staton

      $40m per is not happening.

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