Vernon Butler is the second most explosive D-liner in the draft
One of our community members Cysco (could it be?) came up with a way to enhance TEF and offer a new dimension to the formula.
At the moment it doesn’t account for weight/size. I think that’s fine because it’s a combination of tallied explosive skills and being ‘bigger’ doesn’t necessarily matter. Aaron Donald is only 285lbs but wins with explosion and speed, not size.
Even so, TEF doesn’t really account for the players who are enormous (eg Germain Ifedi) and test well for their size. Cysco’s idea is a bit of an equaliser in that regard.
His suggestion was to multiply a player’s weight with his TEF score — and then multiply the results by 0.1. This creates a score in the 75-110 range. For example:
Germain Ifedi — 324 x 2.97 x 0.1 = 96.1
Ifedi’s TEF score of 2.97 didn’t emphasise how well he’d performed as a 324lbs athlete. A 32.5 inch vertical was the second highest among O-liners, a 9-1 broad jump was excellent and he had 24 reps on the bench press. He didn’t hit the ideal 3.00 purely due to his bench reps. That seemed a little bit harsh given he has 36 inch arms — making the test a lot trickier.
Ifedi’s TEF score put him at #8 in the O-line class. His weighted TEF puts him at #3. That felt like a better representation of what he achieved.
Here’s the full list of O-liners using weighted TEF:
Spriggs, Jason — 104.9
McGovern, Conner — 101.4
Ifedi, Germain — 96.1
Shell, Brandon — 94.4
Vaitai, Halapoulivaati — 93.8
Nembot, Stephane — 93.6
Dahl, Joe — 93.2
Joe Haeg — 93.0
Thuney, Joe — 91.6
Robertson, Dominique — 91.5
Redmond, Alex — 91.1
Lewis, Alex — 89.6
Garnett, Joshua — 87.9
Drango, Spencer — 87.4
Kelly, Ryan — 87.0
Conklin, Jack — 85.0
Clark, Le’Raven — 84.1
Westerman, Christian — 83.8
Johnstone, Tyler — 83.2
Brendel, Jake — 80.9
Skura, Matt — 80.6
Glasgow, Graham — 79.9
Martin, Nick — 79.7
Greene, Darrell — 79.5
Blythe, Austin — 79.5
Beavers, Willie — 78.8
Alexander, Vadal — 77.6
Boehm, Evan — 77.6
Theus, John — 77.4
Decker, Taylor — 77.3
Toner, Cole — 77.1
Turner, Landon — 74.7
Marz, Tyler — 74.6
Seumalo, Isaac — 74.6
Young, Avery — 74.5
Whitehair, Cody — 74.4
Allen, Jack — 74.2
Hawkins, Jerald — 73.3
Kasitati, Nila — 73.0
Jackson, Dominick — 72.1
Cooper, Fahn — 71.3
Slater, Pearce — 70.3
Kirkland, Denver — 70.0
Tretola, Sebastian — 67.6
Average score: 82.1
Here’s how Seattle’s previous O-line picks tested (since 2012):
Poole, Terry — 94.3
Glowinski, Mark — 101.1
Sokoli, Kristjan — 107.6
Britt, Justin — 97.5
Scott, Garrett — 98.7
Gilliam, Garry — 91.1
Seymour, Ryan — 93.1
Smith, Jared — 99.4
Average score: 97.9
I don’t expect the Seahawks to use a system as simple as TEF — but I suspect they’re using something similar albeit more sophisticated. We know what their ideal is per Tom Cable (31 inch vert, 9″ broad, 27 bench reps). They might have a formula that also accounts for size and length.
Sadly weighted TEF doesn’t provide a basic ‘ideal’. Original TEF provides that with 3.00. If you perform a 31 — 9 — 27 you score a 1.00 in each test. TEF offers a cumulative score which is helpful and accounts for slightly higher or lower marks in each individual drill.
It’s harder to judge weighted TEF in the same way. What is a benchmark score? 90.0? 100.0? We can’t really answer that unless you want to use Seattle’s 97.9 average. However — it does give a bit of a boost to the bigger guys who complete an explosive test. And for that reason it gives us a nice insight into why they seemingly covet Ifedi considering he’s third only to Spriggs and McGovern — the two athletic freaks in this O-line class.
Players like Ryan Kelly (87.0) and Joshua Garnett (87.9) — both often linked to the Seahawks — don’t test comparatively well compared to Seattle’s previous picks. That doesn’t mean they won’t be drafted early by the team but the evidence suggests they’re less likely to be targeted than perhaps a Connor McGovern (for example).
I know some people dislike that assertion — but that’s just what the formula tells us. This tool is just a way to project what the Seahawks might do in the draft. Again — it’s not projecting who will succeed/fail at the next level and it’s not judging who is a good/bad player.
What about defense?
We can’t use TEF/weighted TEF as a projection tool for defensive linemen because we don’t have the necessary information. We don’t know Seattle’s ideal physical profile. We also don’t have enough draft history (one recent third and one fourth rounder at DT) to pick up on any trends.
We can, however, use it to compare the different prospects. It’s still a formula that ranks the D-liners against each other. It can tell us how much more explosive Sheldon Rankins is versus the rest of the class. So here are the results:
Rankins, Sheldon — 103.3
Butler, Vernon — 101.1
Nkemdiche, Robert — 100.1
Hargrave, Javon — 99.3
Billings, Andrew — 98.9
Lowry, Dean — 98.7
Mayes, Chris — 97.1
Oakman, Shawn — 96.5
Blair, Ronald — 93.7
Henry, Willie — 93.2
Wujciak, Connor — 93.1
Heath, Joel — 93.0
Ridgeway, Hassan — 92.9
Reader, D.J. — 92.6
Ioannidis, Matthew — 92.3
Thomas, Lawrence — 90.5
Collins, Maliek — 90.4
Ogbah, Emmanuel — 89.9
Judon, Matt — 89.9
Tapper, Charles — 89.1
Clark, Kenny — 89.0
Bullard, Jonathan — 89.0
Buckner, DeForest — 88.7
Bosa, Joey — 88.6
Okwara, Romeo — 87.1
Spence, Noah — 86.9
Valentine, Vincent — 86.3
Ngakoue, Yannick — 85.2
Fanaika, Jason — 85.2
Kaufusi, Bronson — 84.9
Zettel, Anthony — 84.5
Jones, Chris — 83.7
Newberry, Giorgio — 82.2
Abdesmad, Mehdi — 81.7
Kamalu, Ufomba — 80.1
Calhoun, Shilique — 80.0
Cowser, James — 80.0
Robinson, A’Shawn — 79.8
Bailey, Sterling — 79.6
Johnson, Austin — 79.6
Nassib, Carl — 79.6
Jackson, Branden — 79.2
Dodd, Kevin — 79.1
Latham, Darius — 78.7
Ward, Jihad — 78.2
Day, Sheldon — 75.8
Washington, Adolphus — 72.8
Nicolas, Dadi — 72.4
Sigler, DeVaunte — 72.4
Correa, Kamalei — 69.1
Pettway, D.J. — 67.1
It’s perhaps no surprise that the Seahawks and the rest of the league are showing interest in Vernon Butler. His combination of size/explosiveness is second only to Sheldon Rankins.
We’ve talked a lot about Rankins arguably being Seattle’s ideal pick. Unfortunately he’ll probably be long gone by #26. According to our formula Butler is the next man up.
Equally interesting is the placement of Jonathan Bullard. Although he ran a superior 10-yard split to a lot of the defensive tackles at the combine — his agility testing and explosion testing is in a similar range to a lot of other players. Here he ranks behind the following defensive linemen:
Rankins, Sheldon — 103.3
Butler, Vernon — 101.1
Nkemdiche, Robert — 100.1
Hargrave, Javon — 99.3
Billings, Andrew — 98.9
Lowry, Dean — 98.7
Mayes, Chris — 97.1
Oakman, Shawn — 96.5
Blair, Ronald — 93.7
Henry, Willie — 93.2
Wujciak, Connor — 93.1
Heath, Joel — 93.0
Ridgeway, Hassan — 92.9
Reader, D.J. — 92.6
Ioannidis, Matthew — 92.3
Thomas, Lawrence — 90.5
Collins, Maliek — 90.4
Ogbah, Emmanuel — 89.9
Judon, Matt — 89.9
Tapper, Charles — 89.1
Clark, Kenny — 89.0
Bullard, Jonathan — 89.0
Bullard is a fun player to watch — he plays with his hair on fire. He doesn’t miss tackles and his gap discipline is solid. Yet as an athletic specimen he is not ‘special’ — and that is consistently something the Seahawks have sought in the early rounds of the draft.
We can project, with this information, that Willie Henry, Ronald Blair III, Hassan Ridgeway and Maliek Collins would provide a similar physical profile — but they might be available in round two. So how do you weigh up the value of Bullard at #26 versus the others at #56?
In terms of grit and personality — Bullard might be a difference maker in that regard. He might be the #1 character prospect in the entire draft. Yet the Seahawks have to decide the value of attitude vs physicality and how it dictates what they do early.
If the Seahawks can’t get at the top explosive linemen (Rankins, Butler, Ifedi, Spriggs) or if they don’t like a particular fit (that might be the case with Spriggs, for example) — that could be the catalyst for a move down the board where they can select from several of the D-liners listed above and O-liners like Connor McGovern, Joe Haeg and Joe Dahl.
La Canfora’s draft notes
When it comes to insider info — Jason La Canfora is a respected voice. Last year he called the Marshawn Lynch contract extension and Seattle’s desire to pick Frank Clark. He had some interesting things to say today on the draft, including:
— Jared Goff is Cleveland’s preferred quarterback at #2
— A’Shawn Robinson is seen as overrated (we’ve known this for a long time)
— Jack Conklin is seen by some as the #2 offensive tackle in the class
— La Canfora expects Josh Doctson to be the first receiver drafted
— Expect the Eagles to draft Ezekiel Elliott
— The Steelers like the cornerback group and Kendall Fuller could go in round one
The thing that caught my eye though was La Canfora’s notes on Vernon Butler:
Teams are very high on Louisiana Tech defensive linemen Vernon Butler, and I expect him to go in the first round and pretty high at that. The Chiefs are among the teams I have heard him linked to. Scouts love his versatility and ability to pair run stuffing ability with some natural pass rushing moves.
There’s a slight contradiction here because on the one hand Butler is being projected to go “pretty high” in the first round — but the team mentioned (Kansas City) doesn’t pick until #28.
Butler has been an interesting guy to follow during this draft season. At the end of the college season he was getting a lot of buzz from media ‘insiders’ like Daniel Jeremiah. That seemed to dip after an average combine — but an excellent pro-day has put him back on the radar.
Just look at the results above in weighted TEF.
I’m not convinced he’ll be Muhammad Wilkerson as some are projecting he might be. Wilkerson has freaky speed and quickness for 315lbs — his closing speed and finishing ability is unlike anything you’ll ever see from a big man like that. He ran a 4.59 short shuttle and a 7.31 three cone and it shows.
Butler is bigger at 323lbs and lacks that same kind of quickness. He ran a 7.82 three cone and a 4.76 short shuttle. He produced a more explosive vertical and broad jump though and the 10-yard splits are similar (1.77 vs 1.80).
One thing we didn’t talk about yesterday is Butler’s personality. He’s a pretty cool guy. Laid back but in a good way, confident. Well spoken. Teams will like that about him.
He can also play some end in base and move inside. He’s versatile. The big question mark is on the pass rushing side of his game. Will he ever develop into a true disruptor? He doesn’t have to be a 10-12 sack guy like Wilkerson — but can he at least consistently provide 5-7?
The way his stock is going he might not be available at #26. Washington in particular might show some interest at #21. If the Seahawks are limiting themselves to ‘ideally’ explosive offensive linemen as we suspect — they might not like the options at #26 compared to the options in rounds 2-3 (McGovern, Dahl, Haeg). That could increase the chances of Butler being their choice in round one — if he lasts that long.
I would love for seattle to get Easley but it all depends on the off field stuff.
Just the name, “Easley,” screams Seahawks… in a good way. Something is wrong though if the Pats simply cut bait. We’ll see…
It’s amazing how much we’ve learned this off-season, such as the well-explained reasoning behind the Britt pick. It’ll be fun to see what actually happens knowing what we know.
Yeah, it’s kind of fishy when the Patriots cut someone with that much potential. Must be some dangerous red flags there.
Your right. I don’t think him being cut has anything to do with a dog bite.
Injuries and the fact his love for the game are in question are probably the reasons.
Kind of glad they did take P-Rich.
Was the ‘air being sucked outta the room’ just a feign?
Just a rumor but I read somewhere that Seattle was actually targeting Bradley Roby with their first pick, not Easley, and that’s why they traded down.
I had not heard that one. Interesting…
Regarding Butler’s pass rush, seems like I remember him absolutely manhandling Tyler Toner of Harvard in shrine game.He scored a brutal sack on that play and had some good pressures too
Sorry, Meant Senior bowl
my mistake again.it was against Connor McGovern. And judging by how highly this board thinks of McGovern that says a lot 4 Butler.
Cole
Rob, it’s multiply by .1 or divide by ten, rather than divide by .1
Thank you! I knew I was going to write that down wrong when I started.
Moritz Boehringer has an official visit scheduled with Seattle per nfl.com. I mocked Devon Cajuste from Stanford to Seattle but I have to admit that Boehringer is a very intriguing prospect.
The prospect of him out there with Baldwin, Lockett, and a healthy Graham is rather tantalizing. Lol, Al Davis would have drafted him in round one. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went on day two. Would love to get him in rd 4.
I’m sure teams are scrambling to get background on the guy. Maybe not much to be learned from watching tape, but getting to know the kind of person he is and how he is liable to handle the adversity and challenges ahead of him.
Cajuste has production and plenty of tape…… Boehringer has almost nothing. I would take the bird in the hand over 2 in the bush in this case. No way should a team grab Boehringer any earlier than 5th round…. 6th or 7th would be defensible, due to athleticism.
Agreed 100%. You really have to consider his (boehringer) experience, technique, understanding, route running and above all…level of competition.
Agreed 5th round or later for Boehringer. His athletic profile makes me drool, but the level of competition is questionable at best. Liken his prospects to a HS basketball player going pro. Sure there’s Kobe and Lebron, but there’s also Jonathan Bender and Korleone Young. Day 3 I’d feel comfortable taking a chance on the talented German.
I think Butler is gone by #26. And I’m just not convinced the Seahawks have Ifedi as a legit first round prospect. With that thinking, moving back into the early second round seems to be the obvious step.
There, they could select 1) McGovern and 2) Blair III. Then go Haeg and Ervin in the third.
Trying to force a first round pick may not be the best option in this draft. I feel like they are content with their tackles. LG, C, and DL seem to be the positions they’ll want to address early.
I agree about Ifedi and I will also throw Spriggs into that mix. While I think Seattle loves both physically, I just don’t think they would value them at #26. I have ZERO basis for that other than listening to Schneider’s interviews where he seems really deflated when discussing James Carpenter and Justin Britt (this morning). The common theme was “well we needed those positions so we bumped them up.”
I just got the sense that Schneider doesn’t want to draft those guys over someone they potentially love (Butler, Bullard, Jackson, Neal, Joseph – wild card IMO). Again, no basis other than simply listening to his answers about the previous 2 “we need an OL” picks.
I agree. And to add to Schneider’s comments, he mentioned how much depth there is in this draft. With so much depth, there isn’t the need to “reach” in the first.
Right there with you. This may seem crazy/risky, but it wouldn’t at all shock me if Schneider has identified McGovern and Haeg/Dahl as guys he must walk away from the draft with. I could see them holding off on OL until R3, in which you see them get VERY aggressive to get 2 OL (ones they actually want). This would free them up to do what they “want” at 26 and 56.
I’m going to play the “What IF” game:
LT – Gilliam. They seem to love him. Sowell is insurance.
LG – Britt. What if they still believe in him and view moving him from the starting RT to LG in mid-camp last year as unfair and are willing to give him an off-season to improve? That’s a big, “what if,” but they may view him as a guy whose started for two full years and will only get better (granted, he needs to get a lot better). They could still like him. He was a starting OL for us on a team that almost won a Super Bowl.
C – Lewis/Sokoli. I doubt any center will come in as a rookie and play better than Lewis and that includes Kelly or Martin. With that being said, they may very well view Lewis to play out his one-year contract and then turn this position over to Sokoli after he’s had two full years of reps at this position. They talk how they love him so they could easily be eyeing him at center for ’17, which means a center early this year wouldn’t make sense if Sokoli is their guy.
RG – Glowinski. A lot of us love Glowinski. I think this position is fine.
RT – They have Webb here. I doubt they signed him with the intent to have him be the highest paid OL, only to ride the pine.
Basically, if they like Britt… they may not go OL in the first two rounds. I can’t see them drafting a player in the first two rounds who won’t play.
The only reason I bring this up is because Sando just posted something on Facebook about how the Seahawks like their OL more than everyone else does and it really doesn’t matter what others think on draft day.
Ideally, we could get a tackle and have Webb play inside (where I think he’s better). Personally, I think they will go OL with one pick in the first two rounds. You just never know for sure until it happens. Can’t wait for the draft.
Great post. I agree with you everywhere but LG. I think they have had it with Britt there. I think they’ll have Britt, Webb, and a late OT prospect battle out for RT in camp. But I just don’t see them trusting JB anymore.
I agree with the coaches on Gilliam. I have a great feeling he’ll do just fine at LT.
I’m not sure I agree, even if they like Britt, because it also comes down to their trust in the depth we have. Not necessarily that they would feel obligated to reach for someone, but if there’s a guy there they feel can be a quality starter and, if nothing else, provide competition this year, they pull the trigger. But if it it with the mindset of “we are going to get a guy we like in rd 3 (McGovern, etc)” I could see it. May depend on how the draft board falls.
I still would rather have Britt play RT and Webb play LG. I’d feel better with that than the other way.
Britt was a turnstile at RT much less LG. The difference is that there are at least a guy on his left and right that can cover for him at LG. I’m really hoping that we find someone to compete at RT and LG, if we bring in someone who can take over RT easily, then Webb can compete with Britt at LG and potentially another rookie for the spot and end up with a much stronger looking OL.
yeah, and we still almost won the SB with him at RT. It certainly was not his fault the Seahawks lost. By the way this is not in support of our OL not needing to improve or that I advocate starting Britt specifically.
Exactly. It’s not what we think should be done, it’s what we think they might be thinking. They may very well like:
LT Gilliam
LG Britt
C Lewis
RG Glowinski
RT Webb
Personally, in that scenario, I’d rather have Britt at RT than Webb, but it’s not what I want… it’s what I think they are thinking.
McGovern in rd 2 – see: Mitch Morse
I am holding out for Coleman @56. Love his game. checks out medically IMO.
Not sure why you say that about rookie centers. Both the Pats and Packers started rookie mid round guys without any issues. Not saying the Hawks will go after Martin or Kelly, but I suspect they’ll be just fine at the next level. Or at least as good as Lewis, certainly better that Sokoli.
The Oline’s issue is consistency in pass-pro, not constant sucking. Even the games they lost this past season, they had plenty of great plays–think Rawls break-out run against the Bengals–and those were Still close games. Also, the line improved over time. If the whole season was as good as the second half of the season, the Hawks would have had a top-ten Oline. These facts, coupled with the stupid depth of the Dline prospects, means that we should be perfectly at ease if JS goes D first. Even D first and second.
Say, Butler, Fackrell, then McGovern? Then somewhere later Blair III, Beaver? And RB, FB, WR, Convert project….we’ll see.
Schneider’s comment about the number of guys on their board is telling–they have fifty percent more guys than they have interest in than any other year. This is from the guy whose 2012 draft is still fully employed. Our options have options.
I feel…remarkably relaxed. Fun to think though. Go Hawks.
This is just my opinion, formed by what Ive read and heard on blogs, newspapers, radio interviews etc. But I think there is a good chance they see Britt as a near bust already, and are looking to upgrade LG in a major way. I also think they arent high on Lewis because they think he’s pretty much at his ceiling; a fine backup, not a long-term starter. (I happen to like him). I also think they are going to get Sokoli in the competition at LG and maybe elsewhere as well. I dont think the C experiment is going as well as they had hoped; that athleticism is there, but its a long road from DL to starting quality C in the NFL. He’ll likely take a couple-three more years before he’s ready to start at C, and certainly another year at best.
I could see them waiting till the third to draft a lineman, depending on how the Draft shakes out, regardless. Then taking another lineman in the fourth-seventh round as well. They should be able to get two guys who can at least compete for jobs this year and certainly down the road, guys who score highly in TEF.
Letting Lewis take the reins while Sokoli learns for another year or two is ok by me as well.
Despite seeing things a bit differently, I really enjoyed you scenario. Nice job. And its entirely possible what I think is dead wrong and you are right on the money. Should be a really interesting year to see what happens along the Line.
RIP JARED GOFF.
Besides that, I’m so excited to see who the FO goes out and gets and brings in to compete.
Add to that, I still have an optimistic hope we got guys on the roster who’s best football is still ahead of them.
-Kasen Williams, Kevin Smith or Jermaine Kearse might emerge as a good wr.
-I think the verdicts still out on Glow, Sokoli, Poole, heck maybe even Peanut Britt or Nowak or either of the FAs come in hungry and help shore up the line
-a lotta potential in the CB depth, I see one or two of those guys breaking out this year
Jermaine Kearse already is a good wide receiver.
I agree, Kearse is a good WR, glad he is back. I don’t have any confidence in Kasen Williams or Kevin Smith.
Would like to see drafted Charone Peake, or Jay Lee, or Mike Thomas (Southern Miss ) in rd 4. or later.
How is Douglas McNeal going to do this year. Like to see a break out year from him.
Agree! Although I wouldn’t take Peake or Lee at the 4th round, maybe 5th. I just wish Peake had more swag in his personality. He doesn’t seem very Seahawk-y to me. Jordan Payton and Nelson Spruce on the other hand, to me, have that kind of feel. If the Seahawks do end up picking Payton, I wonder how beneficial will it be with him having a relationship with Paul Richardson. He has some ODB feel to me, personality-wise. Btw, is it just me or Tajae Sharpe talks like Badlwin?
Good job Rob and Cysco. This really seems to put a nice touch on the original formula/idea. I think it’s monumentally important that there was a weight modifier, especially when evaluating guys like Bullard compared to Butler. A 40 lb difference is nothing to scoff at.
Keep it up!
My initial reaction to weighted TEF is that it needs work. I agree with the idea of giving some consideration to bigger athletes but this formula results in only 2 players in this draft that would exceed the Seattle average for O-line draft picks. That result shows me that the formula is flawed.
But, one interesting note is how well Conner McGovern scores. I have to admit that when I was listening to the podcast and Rob was asked to name one player that screams “Seahawk!” and that Seattle will definitely draft, I was saying, “McGovern…McGovern.”
I posted a simple tweak to the formula yesterday. Simply take TEF and ADD it to a weight modifier (Players Weight divided by 100 LESS 3.00 : 300 lbs / 100). It’s not as drastic as the other formula but does have a fairly significant impact on guys who are sub 290 or over 310.
All three formulas are listed here with the various players.
I created one called TEF+ which uses the following formulas.
TEF+ = ((Vertical/31)*(Weight/300)) + (((BroadJump/108)*(Weight/300))^3) + ((Bench/27)*(ArmLength/32))
This uses the same basic TEF system but accounts for the weight compared to a static for the jumps, and arm length compared to a static for the bench.
It works well and shows several players over the seahawk ideal of 3.0 but fails to probably account for the lighter OLB/DE prospects. However if their explosiveness is being compared to the huge OL and DL guys it might be accurate, since they beat guys with speed more than explosiveness.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pm5ps2ZmnFOb15eZ8CEPWydxnk1YA_4Zxep57vMQdGg/edit?usp=sharing
So, Sokoli is a pretty damn freaky athlete. Imagine if the kid had landed at a bigtime program and developed at one position. Though no time like the present to see if it can all be unlocked.
Agreed. The position change is a HUGE move for him. If he can develop into a good OL, I’d be more than stoked
I’m still not a fan of the TEF formula for a very simple reason – it allows non-explosive prospects to score well by stacking bench reps, which has nothing whatsoever to do with explosive ability. I know why you did it – the self professed ideal – but I think you’d be better served by creating a metric that is actually limited to explosive tests and then filtering based on other known criteria. I suspect this is more similar to what the FO actually does, since there’s no evidence (as far as I know) that they’ll overlook a prospect’s crappy broad jump if he tosses up 15 more bench reps and there IS evidence they’re willing to take bench numbers well below the ‘standard’ if they hit the 9 ft broad jump.
As an off the cuff, I’d be tempted to go with the percentile score for vertical, broad, and 10m split within their position group. The ‘perfect’ prospect (i.e, one who set combine records in all of those) would score .99+.99+.99 = 2.97, making it essentially a score out of three. Further, you now have three measures of explosiveness so even if prospect with a good mark in the composite has a poor score in one area carried by a fantastic score in another you know it’s at least measuring the same thing.
You could also fairly easily do the same thing in crafting indexes for size (using height, arm length, and weight) and agility (three cone and short shuttle). Then you have a three part score of characteristics for each player relative to their position groups: Explosion, Size, Agility and can roughly normalize each score by dividing by the number of inputs in the measure and you’ve got an easy, at a glance encapsulation of their testing profile that you can filter for minimum required length (CB, OL) or whatever you like.
“it allows non-explosive prospects to score well by stacking bench reps”
Not really — the cubing of the broad emphasises that key explosive test. You can’t bench your way to a good score while jumping an 8-5. TEF clearly makes the broad jump the key.
Well, theoretically you can.
If you’re 350 lbs and you get 24 inch vertical, 8 foot broad jump, and 50 bench press, you score a 3.33 and a 116.5 wTEF.
This made me think of Stephen Paea, who only weighs 303, but did 49 bench press reps (did not perform jumps).
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=83921&draftyear=2011&genpos=DT
Explosion from legs I would think is #1 but bench would measure initial punch to an extent – although the # of reps us more indicative of endurance ….maybe do a 1 rep max conversion and using that number somehow?
George Fant = 98.4 and according to Troy Pauline is going to workout for the Hawks among several teams.
This is has been my under-the-radar guess for this year’s Garry Gilliam. And I like it
Every time I read another mock draft (or draft website), I have even more respect for Rob. So many sites just throw out a bunch of drivel, either writing what they want to happen or just falling in line with what everyone else is saying. Rob is rare in that he looks at previous results, analyzes trends, finds patterns, and decodes FO messaging. Before making his predictions, Rob has a really solid feel for the possibilities of what could happen. I feel like other people just pull stuff out their ass when making their picks.
For example, based on the Seahawks trends, there’s no way we pick Eli Apple or AShawn Robinson or Nkimdiche in the first round. There’s just no way.
And after hearing Schiender on Mitch in the Morning, I feel like there’s a very strong chance we trade back in R1. He also mentioned that this is the deepest draft since 2010. Wouldn’t it stand to reason that this makes a trade up in R1 an extremely remote possibility, as that would greatly reduce the number of these quality players they want to draft?
Why not Nkimdiche ?
He’s a forest of red flags
I though PCJS draft guys with character concerns eg. Frank Clark if they prove are competitors and are working hard to get snaps?
Yes, they do. But compared to Frank Clark, Nkemdiche has an air of pride in him. Many sources say he’s not really coachable and feels like he knows a lot. I think PCJS was willing to draft Frank Clark not only because he’s a competitor but also because they saw his character change. Something like Christine Michael when he returned to us after a Dallas stint.
Frank Clark, Percy Harvin, Perrish Cox would lead one to believe red flags don’t mean as much to JS as they do to some of us. Each of them had well-known issues before they arrived in Seattle.
Nkemdiche isnt as explosive when you look at him through the TEF lens, thats one big reason few now believe (including me) that Seattle would consider him. Certainly not with their first pick.
They are willing to risk character flags, but only in dire need for depth (Cox) and for explosive athletes they believe will get it together (Clark); not so much for underachievers with serious problems and who dont score all that high in TEF.
“after hearing Schiender on Mitch in the Morning, I feel like there’s a very strong chance we trade back in R1.”
Same here.
If Moritz Boehringer goes to the VMAC and impresses I think he’ll be one of the players “they can’t leave the draft without.” He’ll probably need a red shirt season, but that speed and size combination is to huge to pass up on. I watched some highlights, and even though he was playing against high school level competition he looked great. He has good hands as well…if he can be taught NFL level separation, watch out!!
I may be wrong, but I think Prof Clayton said Boehringer is a FA, not in the draft, and can be signed by any team at any time, so the Prof was questioning why none of the teams Moritz has visited has signed the guy yet?
Hmm, I hadn’t heard that, he’s definitely being treated like a potential draft pick though…
No, he’s eligible for the Draft, and has said he wants to be drafted. He’s really excited to be the first German League player drafted, and he has said he doesnt care what team or what round/pick, but he wants to be drafted.
I watched some highlights also. Not as impressed. Head and shoulders above the competition he was playing against for sure but he seems to have about 2 plays that they ran over and over. The sideline pass and the deep ball. He certainly doesn’t display any NFL level footwork, basically just runs, no fakes, no stops, no double moves. The receptions I watched were nearly uncontested so there wasn’t much footage to see how he reacts in traffic or with a safety bearing down on him. Would like to see more of him over the middle also.
Definitely a bit lacking, but I guess I saw enough to be impressed. He seems like a guy who’s only missing one or two elements of being great.
Watching Boehringer’s highlights reminds me of watching footage of DGB in HS. Both head and shoulders above their level of competition. When that’s the case the player doesn’t have to work on his craft to dominate. I.e. raw prospects.
I think the weighted TEF is a huge improvement on the value of the formula. And there’s a good reason to believe that weight is a factor. An OL needs to move explosively, but also transfer that explosion into someone else–they’re usually moving while pushing against or smashing into somebody else. Because force equals mass times velocity, having more weight is an advantage for an explosive athlete: they will transfer more force into their opponent. It’s less important in pass blocking (where you’re receiving a blow more often than dishing one out). But, as we know, the Seahawks value run blocking far more. Because of all this, I’m convinced that Ifedi is at the top of their board for the OLine. The other name that really sticks out is Shell, who is massively overlooked by the press because of how awful the Gamecocks have been. But his film actually looks good and their run game wasn’t too bad. I could imagine that the JS/PC think more highly of Shell than most do. One more thought: I highly doubt that they use these kind of stats as a “hard rule”. It would make more sense that such stats are rated highly, but they can then make micro-moves on their board based on detective work, off-field problems, “grit” perception, locker-room fit and coaches’ preferences. Where decision-making often fails is when any one of those factors is based on “gut feeling” rather than data or hard evidence. From the outside, it appears that the Seahawks organization is very effective at avoiding any gut-based decisions.
Rob what are your thoughts on Odell Beckham’s cousin terron beckham. Saw a while ago he visited the seahawks do you think he could be one of those athletic project players they take in the late rounds or in FA?
Sure
Beckham isn’t eligible for the draft. He can be signed by any team now. The German WR is in the draft because he’s less than five years from his high school graduation.
So I wonder if we will kick the tires on Dominique Easley. They have taken on injury reclamations before, no comp pick lost, probably cheap, and he was their guy in that draft. Maybe the Staff thinks they can heal him up and tap that unused potential?
Of course it’s all imperfect, but I appreciate the metrics. It’s certainly a way to compare these players. A lot of what you hear about the value or worth of a player is based on esoteric scouting, and so much of that is subjective. Similarly, using TEF and saying that XY and Z players are explosive and AB and C players are not, or that one is more explosive than the other regardless of their size and length belies the point: who’se bodies and athletic profiles represent an advantage over the competition. It is absolutely relevant that Germain Ifedi has 36″ arms when trying to discern his explosiveness as it relates to his effectiveness. Of course the bench-press is a nice measure of upper-body strength and explosion, but the leverage created by 36″ arms means a real competitive advantage and a different kind of playing strength.
To that end it might be pertinent to devise a length/weight index to go along with TEF, though that obviously gets much more involved.
In my opinion, we don’t need an “ideal,” to find the merit of these stats. It’s nice, and it helps us to understand the Seahawks, but as Rob said, you can always use these explosiveness metrics to compare players to each other. We know the Seahawks are looking for unique and rare profiles in the first two rounds — these metrics can really help to build a hierarchy of rare athleticism within some of the parameters we know they think are important for linemen.
Cable’s admitted physical standard was revealed somewhat off-the-cuff. It may have been that he was simply saying, “Hey these players are cool because they all did at least this,” but perhaps their actual ideal is below that, or that there are moving scales or variables, and size and length is probably one of them. Asked in the moment if his ideal was what we quantify as a 3.00 in TEF, perhaps he was reacted with excitement, “Yeah, I’d love to have guys that can all do this.” I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t think there’s a problem with not knowing the “ideal,” because I still don’t think we actually know. It doesn’t matter because we’re on the right track: we’re identifying the ways in which they are comparing players to one another and building their draft board.
This is useful for D-linemen too, as Rob said, because we can still compare them to one another and to O-linemen. Do they value slightly different metrics in their D-linemen? Maybe, though I’m sure there’s a lot of overlap. The point remains: we can create an athletic/explosiveness profile and build a hierarchy of physical traits. When viewed in the context of Seattle’s draft history in particular, we can start to predict who they might be interested in and when.
Nice work guys.
In my comment https://seahawksdraftblog.com/introducing-weighted-tef-what-it-tells-us#comment-275893 I linked a spreadsheet that has three different formulas, Rob’s TEF, Cysco’s WTEF, and TEF+. In the TEF+ both weight vs a static weight of 300 is used for both vert and broad jumps, and arm length vs a static length of 32 inches is used for the bench press. Doing this definitely helped people achieving results with heavier bodies or longer arms.
Sweet dude. People are on it around here… How does Ifedi look in TEF+?
Jason Spriggs 3.58
Conner McGovern 3.43
Germain Ifedi 3.43
He’s tied for 2nd. However comparing his TEF of 2.97 to the TEF+ of 3.43 definately shows that he is one of the guys that needed the scores to be weighted since he has long arms, and weighs on the upper end of OL.
I think the moral of the story is, toss out anyone under a 90 score.. they aren’t coming to Seattle. Then 4-5 guys, who we like as a collective are available.. through the first 4-5 rounds of the draft.
Spriggs, Jason — 104.9 (wildcard pick, most likely early 2nd round)
McGovern, Conner — 101.4 (a fav of many on the blog in rnd 2 or 3)
Ifedi, Germain — 96.1 (leader in the club house for #26 pick)
Shell, Brandon — 94.4
Vaitai, Halapoulivaati — 93.8
Nembot, Stephane — 93.6 (one of my rnd 6 or 7 favs)
Dahl, Joe — 93.2 (some reader fav him in the rnd 3 or 4 range)
Joe Haeg — 93.0 (some reader fav him in the rnd 4 or 5 range)
Thuney, Joe — 91.6 (mentioned a few times on blog)
Garnett, Joshua — 87.9 (left him on, because there has been some smoke around this player)
So the huge list of OL are now down to 8-10 guys….
you will see 2 or 3 of these guys end up in Seattle by the end of the draft.
McGovern in 2nd, Ifedi in 1st, Dahl in 3rd and Haeg in 4th are very likely targets. Not all of them will get picked (of course) by Seattle but 2 or 3 of them are EXTREMELY likely. Rob, you made predicting Seahawks draft picks so much easier for OL 🙂 🙂 🙂
Seattle interested in Clemson’s Kevin Dodd. VMAC visitor.
I like Dodd, only 1 year of production though. Was he stuck behind g great players or not good enough? I know he sure tore it up this last year.
Shaq Lawson, Vic Beasley, and I know I’m forgetting someone else.
Tony Pauline said he ran the LB drills at Clemson’s pro day and was extremely fluid. Don’t think he’ll make his ‘shmoney’ dropping, but here’s a guy that could be a really cool player. Could factor in at 3 positions.
And to answer your question, that’s probably what they’re asking him.
Dodd’s an interesting player, definitely fits the DE/DT mold. After what JS said today, I kinda think they might be looking intently at players they might consider dropping back for.
Rob, what do you think of DL Justin Zimmer’s results on these metrics?
Justin Zimmer
6’3″ 302 lbs.
32 Vert
117 Broad
44 Bench
3.93 TEF / 3.95 TEF+ / 118.79 WTEF
Those are huge numbers, although inflated by the bench score. Its higher than JJ Watt or Sokoli’s scores, although their Broad and Verts are similarly more.
Have the Seahawks shown any interest in Zimmer?
It was reported that all teams had representatives at his pro day.
Tony Pauline said afterward, “Zimmer did defensive line drills and no offensive line drills. I’m told most of the teams in attendance at Michigan pro day have approached Zimmer for one-on-one interviews.”
So possibly, but they are keeping it tight lipped if they are showing interest.
Those are sick #s for a guy that big. He ran well too.
It’s a great score but his arm length is an issue.
Excellent read. Butler could be ‘their guy’ @ 26. Coleman @ 45-56 would be great. Hargrave @ 90, and Ervin @ 97. McGovern with the 4th & 2017 4th trade with Jacksonville for their 104th pick, or wait for Dahl @ 124. Freeny @ 171, with Jay Lee @ 215 and Joel Heath @ 225. Justin Murray with their final pick.
26. Vernon Butler DT
56. Shon Coleman or Le’Raven Clark RT/LG/LT
90. Javon Hargrave DT
97. Tyler Ervin OW
104T. Conner McGovern or Joe Dahl C/OG @ 124.
171. Travis Freeny LB
215. Jay Lee WR
225. Joel Heath DE/DT/OL
247. Justin Murray OT
Would love to see this list come to fruition. It fills their needs.
No way McGovern makes it to round 4. I’d almost love to see him in round 2 and pray Dahl is there in the 4th round
Any thoughts on De’Anthony Thomas out of Oregon as opposed to Ervin?
No S prospect or Corner? No DB’s drafted? That doesnt seem likely for Seattle, but thats just my opinion, based on their history (always take one, usually two plus) and need for backups with upside and the fact that Lane is injury prone and Shead a fine backup but no a great starter. Otherwise, looks like a neat draft scenario.
Oh, and no TE?
I think the TEF score and the weighted TEF score is a great measure if you’re looking at who has a greater chance of winning in a collision. But I think Jonathan Bullard and other players similar to him skew the TEF score a little. This is because Bullard’s anticipation of the snap and his get-off allows him to collide with the opposing guard before the guard is in position to fight.
Agreed because of Michael Bennett. 31 vert, 9’2″ BJ, 24 BP, 274 lbs, for a 2.95 TEF and a 80.7 wTEF.
I think it’s also worth noting the right under Bullard on this list is DeForest Buckner, who I believe is generally regarded as a top 10-15 pick.
Buxkner ranks second in SLA, though and has huge hands.
Joe Dahl will be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.
I agree.
I prefer the origional TEF formula. My suggestion would be to just make note of weight or possibly filter weight at anything above 275lbs. Noah spence being an explosive TEF athlete at 250 or so pounds isn’t impressive to me. While wTEF accounts for this weight issue, it muddies the final conclusion. Just keep it simple.
I agree Rob. Without knowing exactly how Seattle tweaks their version–whether for weight or anything else, such as intangibles–its harder to get a read on.
Having stated I dont like the idea of Seattle using TEF to form their pool of potential draftees, I also have to say I think that your explanation/formula as a baseline is stunningly accurate thus far in explaining why Seattle chose who they did.
Excellent job.
And responding to requests to adjust that formula for weight is pretty cool. Really nice job.
I hope that Butler is there at 26. Here is some evidence why I think he will be:
Teams that could take Butler:
Saints: Sheldon Rankins will be available here.
Raiders: Inside linebacker is a more pressing need.
Rams: Time for them to get a quarterback, plus they have bigger needs at linebacker and corner.
Lions: Offensive line is also a big need for Detroit, and they have shown a lot of interest in run stuffer Jarran Reed.
Redskins: They got rid of their safeties, I say they probably take Keanu Neal or Karl Joseph.
If Butler gets by these teams, I say that there is a good chance Seattle can pick him.
I would actually trade up for Butler. I would happily give up a fourth rounder to move up for him.
I’m entirely sold on the guy, really hope he’s there, but here’s why I think he won’t: 6-4 321 men that are that explosive probably aren’t going to last long in the draft, even if their pass rush skills are raw. Could he be a 5 to 7 sack guy at the next level? Yes, I think he can, but what he will probably more than likely do more of is be a monster in the run game, and generally make center and guards’ lives genuinely miserable on any given play.
I see DT needs on all those above teams, and with the Rams and Jeff Fisher, I can see them take him with one of their starting DTs going into a contract year, and just because it’s Jeff Fisher.
I am practically expecting that if he isn’t there, Seattle will trade back. JS went on the air today stating this is the deepest draft class they’ve seen since he’s been in Seattle.
These teams might have other pressing needs, but you never pass on good, well-rounded, talented players, who have good tape and solid character. And the talent pool for ILB is horrible. I do realize that with a deep DT draft pool, these teams might address other needs first, but Butler is just too good to pass up.
The GMs and scouts and coaches of the other 31 teams aren’t dummies; they do their due diligence on players just like PC/JS. They use metrics similar to SPARQ and TEFto evaluate players as well.
Reggie Ragland is just a solid player, the best inside linebacker in the draft by far (outside of Myles Jack)… I do not see Oakland passing up of him if he is there, especially when Oakland has pretty good defensive ends and a solid nose tackle.
Yeah, I can see Ragland going to Oakland.
Where I see Seattle having potential competition for Butler is going to be potentially Saints, Atlanta, I think the Bills might really be into him, Washington, and Cincy. If you are high on the Butler train, like I am, you hope some of those teams fill other needs, or draft other DTs like Rankins, Bullard, Reed, Billings, Jones, Nkemdiche, etc.. Personally, outside of Rankins, maybe Bullard, I would take Butler over those other guys. If Seattle loses out on Butler, and still want to go DT, maybe trading back and looking at Hassan Ridgeway or Willie Henry becomes something.
Personally, I’m start to get higher on Ridgeway. I’m starting to read some reports that suggest he might be the most impactful out of all of them.
But Oakland already has three excellent starting LBs getting paid–Khalil Mack, now Bruce Irvin (unless the move him to full-time DE), and Malcolm Smith. Plus Aldon Smith, who rushed from a standing position last year in their hybrid 4-3 that looked more like a 3-4.
Then again, if youre going to switch between 4-3 and 3-4, or go full 3-4, then you need at least four good LB’s, plus Aldon Smith is still suspended…
Moritz Boehringer has to be the most overhyped prospect I have ever heard of. Comps very similarly to Jeff Janis. Wow, wouldn’t it be awesome if the Seahawks had a less refined version of Jeff Janis on the team?
Let me guess, most of your had to google Jeff Janis’s name…
You mean the guy that basically caught two Hail Mary’s on consecutive plays to get the Packers to overtime against the Cardinals in the playoffs this year? The guy who was a SPARQ demon, but barely drafted and only was on the squad because of injuries. Hah, I didn’t Google him! I feel so accomplished.
In serious manners, yes, he comps to that, with less experience. They probably be interested in hi in the seventh round, if that.
I know who Janis is, and I had wanted Seattle to take him in the late rounds, just as I wanted them to take Jordy Nelson. He’s picking it up, and catching 7 passes for nearly 150 yards vs the Cards in the playoffs is a good sign that he’s settling in and ready to contribute now.
Boehringer likely will need more than one season to get acclimated, and he is a risk. But he’s even bigger than Janis, and while Im not sure I want Seattle to spend a fourth on him in this draft, a sixth or seventh wouldnt bother me one bit. Why not take a flyer if he’s still around?
Rob what are your thoughts on Terron Beckham? Do you think the seahawks would spend a late round pick on him as a developmental prospect?
He is a free agent and can sign with anyone. I do not think he is eligible for the draft.
I think he’d be hard pressed to pass a drug test.
Funny Matt. That dude belongs in the mr Olympia contest. Reminds me of myself.
So did Laron Landry, unfortunately he was just ok as a football player. He did have the physique of Lou Ferrigno, though. I’ll give him that. Did Landry retire?
Rob what are your thoughts on Easley getting cut? I know you really liked him coming out and thought he was going to be a good character guy in the locker room.
The talk coming out of NE surprises me because he seemed to be a passionate guy who loved the game in college.
I think with Dan Quinn knowing him real well the Falcons will claim him but if not would you take a flier assuming there are no legal or suspension issues?
Not to speak for Rob, but no thank you! He’s a 1-dimensional pass-rusher, you can get one in day 3 of this draft.
Perhaps but when you watch his Florida tape he was a pretty dynamic player.
Just my opinion, but when healthy, he has been pretty good…better than anyone you’d get on day 3 and you wouldn’t have to use draft capital on him. I’m not sure they’d try to claim him (and be tied to his contract), but if he becomes a FA he’d be the perfect low-risk, prove-it type player for this team.
The contract would be no concern (I think we’d be on the hook for about 1m/year if we claimed him)… More just that if whatever caused the Pats to waive him (whether off-field issues or health or ?) is bad enough for 20-odd other teams ahead of us in the waiver queue to pass on him it’ll probably deter us too.
I know the Seahawks were bummed when the Patriots drafted him. They wanted him.
Trevor, I follow NE, and I am shocked. Apparently, Easley is a major headcase and locker room cancer who could no longer be tolerated. He was also injured too often, some bad off field stuff.
They are stacked with depth at many positions at the moment, deeper than I’ve seen in years, including on D-line.
That said, they are going to draft for DT/DEs for sure, and this means they are likely to do so in the early rounds.
To anticipate the next thought from many of you—no, I do not think the Seahawks should consider him. Not if the reports out of NE have validity. Easley is a psycho.
OL’s and DT’s the Hawks may consider drafting on days 1 & 2 (they could easily take 3-4 of these players with their first 4 picks):
R1 – S. Rankins, J. Spriggs, G. Ifedi, C. Jones, V. Butler, J. Bullard
R2 – S. Coleman, J. Hargrave, H. Ridgeway, C. McGovern, R. Nkemdiche, B. Kaufusi, L. Clark
R3 – J. Dahl, M. Collins, W. Henry, J. Haeg
Looks like a solid list to me.
I agree.
Or they can just take 1 of each and add RB and DE/LB….
All but Butler call for a move back.
That’s pretty pessimistic…
Look, if Nkemdiche is available at 97 I’d draft him, I don’t think he makes it past round 2 at the latest.
I just could not make the statement “Yet as an athletic specimen he is not ‘special’”, because if TEF says he doesn’t possess elite explosion. Athleticism account for other aspects. His agility makes up for that. Exhibit A: SPARq. Exhibit B: SLA.
I didn’t just use TEF for the basis of that remark. I noted his agility testing is similar to the Henry’s and Blair’s in this class.
The only place Bullard separates from that pack of second rounders is 10-yard split. But I’m not 100% convinced there’s a round of difference between Willie Henry and Jonathan Bullard because he runs a 1.65 split.
Ultimately, I think that there is a greater chance Seattle trades back out of 26 and grabs more picks. If JS is saying this is the deepest draft he’s seen since 2010, normally they have 130 draft-able grades and this year they have 200, I see that as trade down. I’m high on the Vernon Butler at 26 idea, so if he’s there, I still have them taking him. If not, and Ifedi is not there, I think trade down.
26: R1P26
DT VERNON BUTLER
LOUISIANA TECH
56: R2P25
OLB KYLER FRACKELL
UTAH ST.
90: R3P27
G JOE DAHL
WASHINGTON ST.
97: R3P34
OT JOE HAEG
NORTH DAKOTA ST.
124: R4P26
RB JHURELL PRESSLEY
NEW MEXICO
171: R5P32
CB JAMES BRADBERRY
SAMFORD
215: R6P40
WR JAYDON MICKENS
WASHINGTON
225: R7P4
DT JOEL HEATH
MICHIGAN ST.
247: R7P26
S WILL PARKS
ARIZONA
I’m taking a leap of faith assumption that they are not as concerned with the OL, as we all are. They are good with Gilliam at LT. They want to give Britt a chance to compete at LG with a full offseason getting ready for his second year at it. They are okay with Lewis at center. They like Glowinski at RG. They are okay with Webb at RT Do they want to address it? Absolutely. Will they pass on players greater on their board at other need positions to do it? My assumption is no.
Butler fills the need of the other starting DT position in the base, and has the tools to develop into potentially a dominant 3 down line man.
They have some need at SAM/EDGE. Maybe the two headed monster of Marsh/Clark fills the void of Irving, but maybe they fill the need with someone who matches somewhat Irvin’s athletic profile in Fackrell.
Dahl drafted at 90 competes at center where they are just okay with Lewis and intrigued somewhat with Sokoli. If he takes to it, he’s probably the day one starter. Haeg either competes at RT or possibly LG depending on how Britt and Webb progress in OTAs and minicamp, but they love his potential as an eventual starter.
Juhrell Pressley’s interesting. 4.38 40, 33.5 vert, 9.9 broad. Tick athletic box. Nice cut back skills, hits hole like he means it. Great burst, home run hitter. Solid vision to keep the ball going on the second and third levels. RARELY FUMBLES. Sound like a solid compliment back to Rawls to me.
Bradberry adds safety size to corner. Mickens fits right into what they like their receivers to do and is gritty. Heath adds DL/OL convertibility, possibly adding competition at RG. Willie Parks adds depth at safety.
That’s a good first four players. Would probably rather have McGovern than Dahl but they are very similar. I’ll take it.
I think they may loose out on McGovern if they wait to R3 pick 90. If they go away from OL with the first two picks, maybe he is a guy they may trade up for, though. But like I said, I am almost fully expecting them to trade back out of 26. I think they might want to add as many players as they can out of this draft onto their roster, if it is as deep as JS says. I think McGovern is very much in play, one way or the other.
Just envisioning a scenario where they go defense with 26 and 56 and wait of OL later.. to see if it makes sense. The curve ball being that they are actually relatively okay about the OL, and want to add two impact players on the D, focus on depth available for OL later.
Really? You would let us take a RB at the end of Round 4? I like Juhrell Pressley but the question for me would be the transition of competition level. I believe PCJS still want to give Christine Michael another shot. They also brought in Cameron Marshall. So I would rather take a WR or S or CB at this round. There are still some good RB that fit Seahawks mold in the later rounds. DeAndre Washington if he’s available in the end of 5th round or 6th round. Wendell Smallwood isn’t that bad in the 6th or 7th round either.
Pressley in R4, I think they might consider, especially if they loose out on Ervin in 3. His work out numbers appear to be close to Christine Michael, and we know they liked him. Plus the fact he’s been pretty secure with the ball. I see him in R4 only because he’s a small school player, and am pretty sure they are looking intently on adding a back in this draft, and may not wait too late to do it.
Great work Rob, however I’m not too keen on the weighted TEF on the DL comparisons. I can see the weight and therefore the formula making a difference when reacting more than attacking. TEF and agilities might be the better way for DL. Especially the DEs. A weighted TEF puts Von Miller at 87 with his combine numbers. I know this isn’t for DL it’s for OL. And we’re using it just for comparisons, but regular TEF seems better for that imho. Could work more for the run stuffers however.
Seattle Thunderbirds 5…Everett Silvertips 0 in the second round of the playoffs. Tbirds up 2 games to 1. If anybody cares.
Come on, Tips.
(used to work at their stadium)
Rob, with around 2 weeks left until Draft Day, would you be posting your Big Board in your blog? It doesn’t really need to be every player. Just the players who you think fit the Seahawks mold and what round you think the FO is willing to draft them. After all, with all the TEF and in-depth analysis you’ve given us, it would be nice to apply them once Draft Day comes around.
John Schneider said his big board is almost 200 strong. They will trade down a lot to add picks.
Maybe, however: the further you go down that big board, the smaller the likelihood is of those players becoming a success. Not impossible, just less likely than players graded higher.
Not literally true.
Here are other details of Easley’s dismissal from Volin:
— Easley is “a 25-year-old in a 40-year-old’s body” because of his knee injuries, two league sources told Volin.
— Easley is a “locker room cancer,” according to a former Patriots teammate.
— Easley couldn’t participate in rookie minicamp because of “injuries to his ankles, arms, and wrists sustained when bitten by his pet pitbull two weeks before the draft,” according to Volin. Easley didn’t tell teams about the injuries before the draft.
— He is being sued by a friend for injuries suffered due to bites by Easley’s dog. Easley is “bracing for the possibility of two other lawsuits being filed against him by other parties,” according to Volin.
— Easley is “unreliable and immature,” league sources told Volin.
— Easley “ignored requests to rehab his injuries with the Patriots’ trainers, and instead did it on his own,” according to Volin.
— Easley was told to stay away from the Patriots’ facility after being placed on injured reserve after 11 games in 2014 and rehab on his own, according to Volin.
— Easley would never listen to medical advice, a source told Volin.
Wooooow, doesn’t sound like a good fit for the micromanaging seahawks. Doubt they give him the leeway and trust they showed Marshawn.
With a bit of luck, Atlanta or Indy take him, and leave someone on the board we want.
That’s what I’m thinking. Come on, DQ!
The dog thing is a little strange. No Michael Vick type stuff though… was Easley bit by dogs he owned? Its just weird and as a GM I would probably think about cutting ties just to avoid more problems with the dog stuff.
The injury history coupled with Easley’s insistence of rehabbing on his own is definetly concerning.
As of now, I would pass. We don’t want another constantly injured player with a bad attitude (Percy Harvin).
Rob (and Cysco) you are doing a brilliant job quantifying the complex. You are truly on to it.
TEF adjustments – I can see the logic behind the various options but I think it is best left as it was when Rob presented it first. It had that clean baseline and it supported the actions taken by the FO in the past 2 years. It’s very tempting to add weight and arm length to it. Then it would be tempting to add some of the classic considerations like 3 cone or 10ys. Then we’ll need to debate the relative value we give every category.
It could go on and on. Leave it as it is. It’s cool because it is so simple. Add whatever other qualifiers you deem relevant (Ifedi is 2.97 at 324 with 36 inch arms). It will never be an exact OL picking formula. It’s just a cool tool as it is until their actual picks fall outside its range.
How fast things change as we approach the actual draft. After the combine, Butler was a “has been” and now he may not even be there at 26.
As time goes by and S. Coleman slides down due to lack of physical tests, I am hoping he will not be able to get those done pre draft. Any minor set back or unimpressive tests done before he is fully ready could push him further back. He could be the steal of this draft early on day 3.
Reading some of the comments here regarding Britt (El Matador) and other references to our OL makes me remind everybody once more –
This OL facilitated a top 3 running game for almost half a decade. For a run first team, that’s a high praise. The usual reply here is pass protection issues. Whatever adverse effects you find due to pass protection, it certainly did not prevent our passer from posting the highest QB rating in the NFL. I know you can’t understand the smile on JS and PC’s face when they keep saying that the OL situation is fine but I can, and do.
I still believe we will not see more than 1 OL pick before day 3.
I hope the Hawks pick up Dominic Easley!!!
I say this with 2 caveats #1 he checks out medically #2 He is not in any legal trouble or facing a league suspension of any type.
He was obviously a bad fit in NE with a very rigid culture and all players are expected to basically be robots with the exception of Gronk. People say he does not have a love of the game but I followed him closely in college and he was an incredibly passionate player and leader on that team.
Here is report Rob did on him before the 2014 draft https://seahawksdraftblog.com/the-case-for-the-seahawks-considering-dominique-easley-at-32
This is a guy who was the most effective interior pass rusher in the league according to PFF when he played with a QB hurry every 6 snaps. That is better than Aaron Donald and Geno Atkins. Bottom line is that this kid can flat out play and be a disruptive interior presence. He would be an incredible addition to or DL even just as an upgrade to Jordan Hill.
He is obviously a different personality but we have a team of those guys. If he loves the game I think he could thrive in an environment like Sea who relish a players individuality and uniqueness. Also in the DL room with Bennet, Avril and Clem he is going to have solid leaders to keep him on track.
I think the Falcons and Quinn will take him but if not then I really hope the Hawks do it would be like getting another first round pick and filling a big need which is interior pass rush.
Like I said all this is assuming he clears medically and does not face legal or suspension issues.
Before you comment go back and read the scouting report from Rob. Does this look like a guy who does not love football. I think he was just a bad fit in NE and their culture. They are like the Hawks if a guy does not fit they do not hesitate and cut bait quick.
Vol 12 this question is for you but if anyone else knows that would be great.
Have the Hawks scouted Auburn games this year? Have the met or interviewed Shon Coleman?
Also any idea if Coleman is having a personal workout for teas prior to draft?
I have the day off and have qued 5 Auburn games on my PVR and I am watching them back to back today to look at Coleman, Louis and Barber. I will update tonight when I am done.
I think Coleman and Louis could be incredible steals in this draft and just want to make sure i am not missing something.
To answer some of the recent questions by comment posters…
Here is my 2-cents worth:
There is simply no way PC/JS should even take any time to consider Dominique Easley. After reading some of the unsavory details about him, I really don’t find any need to elaborate on why they shouldn’t consider adding him, not even a “prove it” deal. He’s not worth the headache.
I personally worry about where specifically Haeg and/or Dahl would play on the Seahawks o-line. I dont think they are quite physical and strong enough, especially re: lower body/core strength. The only position that I think either could compete for is RT, and I would give Haeg a better shot there than Dahl. Some posted comments have mentioned either Haeg or Dahl at center, but I think Pete really is insistent on developing Sokoli for that job, so Lewis will probably fill in this year again until Soko is ready.
Whoa!!!!!
BIG NEWS:
Rams trading up to #1 overall with Titans for multiple picks!!!
I can’t believe it! Such a big trade! How does this affect the draft? So just like last year, 2 QBs are going to be off the board at #1 and #2.
Well, remember Cleveland is now run by MoneyBall guys from Baseball. They have gutted the team and wont pay anyone over base salary it seems, except stars. Even budding stars were allowed to leave in FA. And they hosed Whitner, holding onto him through FA and then cutting him just before the Draft. They have no clue!
Point is, they may be so enamored of their MoneyMetrics that they undervalue the importance of finding a QB, and if they arent in love with the second QB available (likely Goff) they very well could trade down. That would shake things up even more.
I dont think PC and JS know what they are going to do. They have their board, they will have discussed trading down and up, and they will be ready to adjust on the fly come Draft Day. Should be a wild one!
Im expecting several more trades if Cleveland trades down.
Called it with my last mock on here! That is funny. They were the only team with the capital to make it happen. Is it confirmed?
Honor is due Trevor. Good call.
Haha, check out the Redskins Twitter:
https://twitter.com/Redskins/status/720603783043096576
That’s pretty much what I’m thinking…
Hopefully having that many picks in the first three rounds would make them a potential trade partner:
R1-15
R2- 33, 43, 45
R3- 64, 76
https://twitter.com/Titans/status/720598851468574720
I’m especially eyeing 43 and 45 if Seattle wanted to move up in R2.
This is very interesting information to me. Is there any way I can get my hands on your data and do a little modeling myself?
I think we need to appreciate just what an amazing TEF score Jason Spriggs has. For an OT to score better than the most athletic DT is a rare feat, and he is approaching Sokoli territory as a sparq-god, but with four years experience as a starting left OT in the Big Ten. If John and Pete follow their formula of going for the rare athlete, then Spriggs would appear to be a no-brainer, and maybe we are over-thinking this? Combine with the fact that he plays with a nasty edge and has all the requisite competitive grit, I think that whatever fundamentals he needs to work on can be fixed by Tom Cable?
The bench press should not be weighted by the subject’s weight. It makes no sense considering that the subject must lay down on a bench to perform the test. If anything it should be adjusted for arm length. How much the adjustment should be I don’t know. I haven’t studied that enough. I think non-weighted TEF works just fine for identifying guys Seattle would focus in on.
This is just a test on an old thread… was wondering if one can use HTML in the comments here.
Bold test.
Italics test
Jordan Howard in the 4th, winner. Lynch lite IMO.
Wrong thread dang it.