Welcome to Seahawks Draft Blog, providing daily analysis on the Seattle Seahawks and the NFL Draft.
The blog started in 2008 and is now into its 16th year. I'm available for any radio or podcast invites, just reach out using the 'contact' section.
We have a great community in the comments, we just ask you keep things on topic.
Rob Staton
Hot topics
- Why the Seahawks are already facing a critical period under the new regime
- Instant reaction: Don’t be fooled, this was an embarrassing loss
- Curtis Allen’s week six watch-notes (vs San Francisco)
- Scouting notes week six: Eye-catching O-liners, a player the Seahawks might target, Luke Lachey notes, Cam Ward is what he is & more
- Video: 49ers preview with Puck Sports and an honest debate about the Seahawks after the Giants loss
Looking forward to this. In addition to all the fun stuff to talk about regarding the quarterbacks, would you please share your thoughts on Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Darnell Washington)
Thank you!
Rob, I won’t be able to make this and I’ve got a question for the livestream. Do you think it’s a done deal for Anthony Richardson being there at 5? Will we have to trade up for him if that’s the QB John Schneider wants?
Not guaranteed IMO. Could be top 3.
He could easily go #1 after that workout
Starting to break down the trades for qbs in the first round.
It’s a pretty wild range of moves.
Notably the Goff trade (14 spot move up), Wentz (six spots moved up), and Trey Lance (nine spot move up). These three trades are all gross, didn’t work, and I think are the trades that freak people out. And they should.
However if you look at the Mahomes trade. It’s not as bad and they flew up 17 spots.
Then Josh Allen. Five spots. All that cost was two seconds.
Reportedly the Browns offered 12 and 19 for the number two spot for Mariota.
I’m not sure the particulars of every team but I’m feeling more confident that 5, 20, and 52 would get Houstons pick.
5,20 and 52 is a rough pill to swallow!
I don’t think so.
It basically works out that you still have a first…which is your qb. And you still have a high second.
It’s essentially a “regular,” draft allotment.
I’m not sure if John feels all tge qbs are equal. Alternately I would not really be thinking this if Carter wasn’t in trouble.
Trading up feels too expensive. They have a roster to build. Deciding to trade up depends on: 1) If there is one player JS values above all others and sees as a “must get”. 2) JS doesn’t see critical difference makers in the range of choices he would have to give up.
Let’s game this out.
No trade and no qb.
Take picks and let’s say every single one of them is good. Some great. Some so-so. So good is the average.
Unless they win a superbowl with Geno in essentially three years but the team is solid enough as it has been for over half a decade now but again doesn’t win the big one….what was the point of building for the future?
Now you need a qb. You have no extra picks from the Wilson trade and you’re stuck in limbo or making one of those three first round style picks to get up from the teens for a qb. Which then sets up that team for deficits.
You do the trade this year. Next year you have a regular draft allotment. And finally a boatload of cash for FA.
@Peter
Excellent summation.
I totally agree.
I do this in a heartbeat. My own personal opinion this is the best quarterback draft I’ve seen since the John Elway draft. I’m really shaking my head at the evaluation that this is a poor quarterback class or that there’s no guarantee. One of my buddies said there’s no Patrick Mahomes there’s no Josh Allen in this draft and if there was every team would want one just like they wanted Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. And I’m like say what?
That number 20 pick or late second rounder is no guarantee. The record on Seattle’s picks in the first round in the Pete regime hasn’t been good and I include Bruce Irvin in that who to me has played more like a late second or third rounder and had a good career but nothing exciting. So if you have the draft Capital use it. Go get the franchise quarterback that you are set on and don’t let events happen to you go make them happen if you’re John Schneider.
Agree on the class.
Also if gamblin’ Pete is going to spend picks on Harvin, Graham, Jamal, plus Clowney and Sheldon Richardson all of which outside of a season ( 3/4’s really) for JA and a few good not great years of forcing the ball to Graham and almost nothing all told for all that expense, why is it too expensive to get a qb of the future?
This is exactly right. Great point on the trades. Probably not too many people complained about those so why complain about getting the quarterback you really believe in?
Big winner from Day Three: Chicago.
With as good as these QBs look, they are going to be able to get a massive haul for #1.
I think Arizona at #3 is in a great spot as well. Could get a haul for that pick & still end up with a high-end defensive player.
I’m all for trading up, but giving up 20 and a 2nd or more is giving me pause.
But, as Rob mentioned, this could very well be the original line of thinking for Pete and John after the Russ trade. Accumulate enough draft capital so that a trade up for their guy doesn’t actually hurt them. As Peter stated above, they still have a regular amount of picks on day 2.
But a “regular amount” is probably less than they need to build the team they want to build.
Yeah but is having 4 draft picks really that helpful when you don’t have a QB?
Exactly.
What does everyone think the plan one year ago was?
What would have been the plan if Geno was just so-so?
I honestly have to think the plan was come into this draft expecting to pay in picks for a qb.
With thought to what Rob said about this being the most talented top QB class in memory, it seems that the trade up scenarios are more complicated. Giving value points to draft positions usually is pretty basic, but with these 3 guys at the top in a QB driven league, those point systems may be out the window. It could get expensive.
I’m going to throw out a scenario. Trade back from #5 with the Raiders at 7 or the Panthers at 9. Draft Wilson or Van Ness Pickup an extra 2nd plus a mid round pick maybe more but I can see JS then targeting Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the third round. It kind of got lost yesterday but DTR had a good workout. I’m open to any and all options. The next month and a half should be fun!
His deep ball was not good, but the rest of it was solid.
Agreed, the first two were not good
I’m with you except for the DTR part. If a QB that SEA identifies as a generational guy isn’t there (or Will Anderson) when they pick, a trade-down seems like a possibility. I’d much rather see Hooker but it may end up being that #52 pick. Not sure he’d be there at #83.
How’s John keeping his job in the future if any of the qbs he could have taken turns out great?
Not talking trade up. Talking trade down.
I get that everyone is team trade up right now and I’m not against it but I was just laying out another scenario. I think we must at least entertain the thought that they might not be able to trade up or my not want to pay the freight. There is no guarantee they can find a trade partner.
I still think Arizona is the wild card. They have so many needs and are about to trade Hopkins. They need a lot of draft picks.
Chicago will trade down to #4, grab the alpha they need in Anderson, and probably be content. Chicago will fill plenty of holes with the FAs with their huge amount of cap space.
That leaves the lone wolf, Arizona. They have no cap. They have needs throughout their roster. Honestly I can see them trading down multiple times, all the way to the 20’s, accumulating multiple day 2 picks and a smattering of day 3’s.
All of that makes for a very, very pricey bidding war once Indy and Houston pick their QBs. The only silver lining would be if one of those teams decides Young is the most day 1 ready QB and pulls the trigger.
It still makes sense for Seattle to trade up. They have the draft capital and will be staring at a prototype QB. They will not have this opportunity again. It’s a once in a generation type of situation.
“The only silver lining would be if one of those teams decides Young is the most day 1 ready QB and pulls the trigger.”
I can see that being Indy cuz Irsay love him and we know he has his hands in the whole pie there. And also a gut feel that Houston could do it. Nothing more to base it on tho.
“It still makes sense for Seattle to trade up. They have the draft capital and will be staring at a prototype QB. They will not have this opportunity again. It’s a once in a generation type of situation.”
1000% agree Roy
Exactly this.
Spot on Big Mike
Everything currently feels like Indy trading into #1 is a sure thing. Chicago gets nice compensation while only dropping a few spots. You never know how aggressive a front office is going to be but the leap from Carolina at #9 to #1 seems awfully steep, considering that they could likely win the NFC South with Derek Carr under center this coming season. Indy just makes so much more sense, given their “veteran QB jamboree” experiment the last few years. That’d take one QB off the board.
It’s been discussed at times here before but the real mystery is what Houston does at #2. Given the long contract Ryans was given as HC, they can afford to take a defender (Anderson, Wilson…. Carter?) that Ryans can make the face of his new regime. Obviously, this is what we hope he does, allowing a QB to slip. However, HOU could just as easily take the QB of their future, as that’s a need too.
That leads me to the thought that since HOU has that flexibility in their needs, they might be the best trading partner should we be looking to move up. It’d still be expensive but less than what CHI would demand. Also, trading with HOU also allows us the ability to bypass ARI, who would also certainly be looking to move out of #3 for draft capital. Leapfrogging them removes the possibility that they sell the pick off to LV, CAR or ATL, who may want to land a QB but not deal with the cost of #1. You could also argue for trading up to #3 directly but giving a division rival your future draft capital is skin-crawling. Only way I approve of that is of HOU does go QB and the one guy you LOVE is still available.
If CHI does trade with Indy and you sweat through selections #2 & 3 with a QB you love somehow dropping to #4, you call CHI and inquire about the cost of moving from #5 to #4? It’d be nerve-wracking, but might be the cheapest option to get who you want without mortgaging your future first rounders. Thoughts?
I agree with most of your thoughts. Getting up to #2 is probably the move, if you want to ensure you get, say Levis or Richardson.
I think your scenario of moving up from #5 to #4 (trading with Chicago, potentially) could end up being super expensive as well, though.
Imagine the offers that Chicago would be getting in that scenario, if one of Levis, Richardson or Stroud is left on the board. We could end up needing to spend the same amount to move up one spot, and maybe not get our first choice of QB, either.
I say, if you want a guy, don’t mess around…trade up to where you need to be to get him.
As you point out, a lot depends on what Houston wants to do.
Trade up trade up trade up. One of the things I hate about all these trade down scenarios is Schneider historically trades down when he has more than one person equal on his draft board that he thinks he can get after he trades down. This is not the case in this draft. You have five potential franchise players and you’re sitting in that position to get one of them. After that there’s a fall off. The number five pick is like Manna From Heaven it wasn’t expected. No one expected Denver to be that bad and Pete is always good for seven wins minimum per season so the number 5 pic is a gift. He can’t take that gift and just bury it in the closet and see what happens he needs to go get aggressive and make it happen he needs to control his own destiny and not let Destiny just happen to him not with a gift like that.
Someone PLEASE draft Young with one of the first three picks!
Chicago goes Anderson… and Richardson, Levis or Stroud falls to 5.
PLEASE. PLEASE. PLEASE!!
I’ve always likes Darnell Washington and I’ve made several comments this season about pairing his 6-8 to Colby Parkinson’s 6-7 and running a twin tower TE set.
He’s a steal in R4 but he’s worth a R3 pick. Maybe they trade down from 20 or 37 and pick up an extra R3 (or R4 to package with their native R4 and move back into R3).
But even if it’s not him, they have to tap into this TE class.
Zach Kuntz scored a perfect 10 RAS and he’s 6-7. He’d look good with Parkinson.
If they miss on Washington, or even if they flat out prefer him, take him with one of the R5 picks.
https://twitter.com/CooperGoede/status/1632201492387053569?s=20
They won’t keep 4 TE’s. Something would need to happen with Dissly and/or Fant.
Been saying for a while with cha that they should trade Fant before or at the draft.
Nobody’s trading for Dissly and his contract.
It’s too bad, if the Seahawks have their sights on moving up in the draft, that players rarely are part of the package. Teams trading down want picks.
I could see Fant as a piece for Chicago or Houston, and it would lessen the blow of the cost to move up and give the Hawks another chunk of cap room money to work with.
But he’d be a throw in and not likely to return much.
Yeah he’s not good enough to be the main compensation for a trade but maybe enough to compel Houston to accept an even trade points-wise.
For example, the 2nd pick is worth 2600 and the 5th pick 1700. Seattle would need to add picks worth about 900 points for an even trade.
Coincidentally, the 20th pick is worth 850. Maybe Houston would take 20 + Fant instead of 20 + a R3/R4.
Cutting/trading Dissly may not work, unless he passes a physical.
Fant would be the one to watch. Still relatively cheap, if a team thinks they can utilize him more. Get anything in return. Doesn’t really matter what round. You clear the books of his 5th year guaranteed money and nab a consolation pop ick.
Hutch sighting!
I know it won’t happen, but every time I hear rumors of Carr and the Panthers, I get too hopeful. I expect them to be the ones to trade ahead of us (and maybe the Raiders because they have to get the shiniest toy every year).
Would be a big win if they pull a veteran. Still see less than 10% of it happening though.
I don’t know about percentages but I think it’s more likely they sign a FA QB than draft one.
They’re at too much of a disadvantage relative to Indy or Seattle. Neither Chicago or Houston want to pick at 9. It’d cost them too much to move up.
You never know how front offices will act but I’d think the chances the Panthers sign a QB are much higher than that. Unless they move up to #3 or to #4 (assuming CHI trades with IND), the cost of moving to #1 or 2 will be a lot. They could legit win their division this next season. A veteran QB might not be the splashy move but if they are able to compete for the NFC South for the next couple of seasons, I think they go that route. They can always sign Carr AND draft a QB on day 2 to compete for the backup spot. They also already have Matt Corral, who they might like but feel needs time to develop.
The Raiders are definitely a dark horse. Walking away publicly from Carr likely means they want to declare their commitment to a new, young leader. They may also feel that Young will drop to #7, though.
Very valid points. Carolina could win the division this year and might push for that than getting a top 4 pick rookie. Build the culture now. And Reich might look at Carr and the situation and think that he needs to win immediately.
The Raiders are one of those franchises that kind of…do what they want, whether or not that they should.
Where those veterans land could change the entire landscape of who will try to trade up in front of us for a QB. If the Raiders get Rogers and the Panthers get Carr, that really decreases the offers that Chicago will get. Not to mention if Geno signs elsewhere (crossing fingers)….
Braeden Daniels had a nice 40
I like him moving inside to guard
Sing it, Jeremy!
Yes! Really, really slow. So slow that they sign a couple other FA’s and can’t afford Geno any longer.
Or the slowest play? Agree to a move up with Houston.
Man I would just do that in a heart beat. Take that pick, let them be at 5 to do whatever they want. Let everyone else go crazy for #1.
Well they’ve already ate a chunk on Myers, Haynes and Bellore.
Plus they have yet to cut Jackson or do anything with Shelby Harris.
It’s possible they really are playing 3-D chess with this one. They have no room to tag Geno, and are slow to make that room with 2 days to the tag deadline.
They literally could be waiting in the weeds for Carr, Jimmy G and Daniel Jones to sign, for Geno to then go ‘ok my market is set, that’s what I want’ and the Seahawks to win the PR war by saying ‘sorry we just cannot afford you, best wishes’ and tell the Seattle media exactly that.
And then there’s this
“I wrote the Seahawks, asking when I can expect my $35 million offer. They ain’t write back.” – Geno, on his way out of town
😂 That’s awesome! I may steal that one!
Nice run by Broderick Jones
You know, I’m a bit concerned about Richardson’s character. I know he gave a nice talk about his brother and all, but it seems like it’s been crickets from the Florida staff.
That gives me some pause. Coaches want to praise their players. Silence is concerning.
People can read a “character script”. It’s not hard, and a coach or teammate wouldn’t want to contradict it unless he was WAY out of line. If Richardson doesn’t have someone from Florida back him up soon, I would hesitate to draft him.
Sometime after FA has started and QB movements has been established, I would suspect JS will be on the phone with both Chicago & Houston. I think in addition to draft picks including players as throw ins is a viable tactic. Fant, Harris, Barton all could be added without much pain, and they have value as veterans (as compared to draft picks of which many fail.) I think an offer of 5, 20 & then start adding players one at a time in the negotiations would be a doable tactic, especially with Houston.
I love this QB class and want one of them. I do wonder though how bad of look it would be for a GM to Morgage their team’s future for the first QB taken, and have the other three turn out to be better players. I totally get why the Colts don’t feel any pressure to trade up, sure I’d feel safer with Levi’s, Richardson, or Stroud for my pick as the Hawks but could ultimately be a blessing in disguise to end up with Bryce Young at 5 and have him just continue to out perform the big guys for the next decade. I’ve been all about Levi’s or Richardson for awhile but watching Stroud throw was just so incredibly smooth, and the personality defended Fields, and just seeming relaxed and very comfortable in his own skin. It seems like it’s getting harder to separate these guys from on another instead of easier.
Really watching centers in this draft and Tippman seems to be missing.