Excellent mock draft Rob. If we can have a draft like that following the great 2022 draft, we’re on our way to yearly contenders for the Super Bowl like KC usually is. Although I’d love to see one of the DTs Kancey or Smith drop to our 2nd 1st and get Skinner with our 1st 2nd, you’re probably right. He may not last 12 picks or more later than our 2nd 1st rounder.
If Skinner and JA are both strong safeties and we renegotiate or cut Adams, cut Diggs after June 1 to save cap room and not pay him 18 mil., who is available or could you see us drafting in rd. 3 or day 3 at free safety to replace Diggs?
clbradley17
Ryan Neal is an RFA after this year, so hopefully he can be retained if we tender him as a 2nd rounder that gets 3+ mil. as we’ve done with several players in recent years. If we are able to re-sign Neal and draft Skinner while releasing Diggs and Adams after June 1st, which one has the speed and skills to play free safety?
I still think we’re a great draft and franchise QB away from being yearly SB contenders personally. Don’t get me wrong, Geno has done a fantastic job but he is not the QB of the future in my eyes, until we get that we’re probably just another one and done team in the playoffs. We need a QB that can go and win shootouts on a weekly basis if need be.
Olyhawksfan
I hope the Chargers take a wide receiver early. Give Herbert some young talent.
Mel
They’re paying Keenan Allen and Mike wWilliams and they drafted Josh Palmer in the 3rd round of 2021. He’s got plenty of talent there
Allen and Williams are hurt all the time, they definitely need help, maybe not in round one but certainly early
DW
They are rarely ever on the field together, and for most of this season it seems weren’t even on the field apart.
A TE would be a huge get for them
Olyhawksfan
We just because you’re paying two players at a position doesn’t mean the jobs getting done. See Jamal Adams and Q Diggs. All these explosive Wars out there and Herbert is stuck with the glass men. Just saying it would be cool if Herbert could throw some bombs to Hyatt.
Spectator
Loving all the mock content, Rob! Thank you for providing!
Quick question/thought: if the Denver pick ends up being #3 would you personally and would you see the hawks taking the 3 firsts from Indy? Or do you see them standing pat and still taking Anderson?
On one hand, gaining picks is always tantalizing, and if its from the Colts who will be starting a New QB in Stroud who will need years to develop, and having a new Coach, I could easily see those picks being very high in the preceding drafts.
On the other hand, it would be very nice to get a blue-chip prospect in Anderson who many thought was a perennial 1st overall. But your assessment on him this year and that he isnt a Bosa, or Young, or that lights out does bring the joy of getting down slightly.
So would be an interesting situation
Peter
I would like the three firsts but I’m still not sure who would give them up. Indy is a mess. They aren’t a qb away. Irsay may be dim enough to do it and you’d almost have to say yes. #14 plus Seattle’s pick could still be great.
Rather than the drip, drip, drip of firsts while woolen, lucas, walker, and probably mafe are getting into free agency. I’d prefer a broncos like move from Indy. 1st, 2nd, 3rd this year and a second next year to really bring the team into a new realm ASAP.
UkAlex6674
Peter, what else do you think the Colts need to improve on aswwll as QB?
Peter
Somethings off with that oline.
And the receiving corps is pretty non descript..
Spectator
Those 2nd and 3rd wont be very high from Indy this year tho. I understand the want to get as many picks in the meat of this draft, which is the 2nd. There are about 6 players i would absolutely love to grab that are on the big board as 2nd rounders lol but you are trading immediate gratification for what could be potentially high picks next year.
When you say a trade like Denver tho, I would get behind that. 2 firsts and 2 seconds. But again, is that worth the chance to get a blue-chip player like Anderson is the question. Collecting picks would be my choice too, but who is even going to be available at 14? You will be stuck drafting a second-round talent, especially if you are looking to build the D-line. Maybe Breese and Kancey are available, I wouldnt be mad at either of those.
JimQ
In the 2024 draft, with extra picks, would the Seahawks have a chance to potentially draft the current USC QB-Williams? Looking at 2024 draft, the QB market may be a bit lower than this year, who else could they potentially target at QB if not Williams? What might it take to move up for him remains as a big question.
Spectator
I mean this whole scenario is predicated on Hawks at least signing back Geno, and potentially even Lock. I doubt those would be 1-year deals, with the thought being that a combination of Geno/Lock are the QBs of the future. We wouldn’t need to get Williams.
On Williams, he seems really unorthodox. I am not a QB evaluator and would leave that to Rob, but my untrained eye sees another product of Lincoln Riley’s system that looks like a great college qb (Baker, and Kyler), but will struggle in the NFL. If we are looking at QBs of the future next year, Id be more interested in Drake Maye who looks like a phenom as a Rs freshman. But SO much can happen even between now and 2024 draft at QB. Ewers will also be eligible. TVD should transfer and come out in 2024. You don’t have the sheer upside as this draft with Richardson, but next year isnt exactly lacking in “potential” at the QB position. But I wont claim to be smart enough to know that for sure.
As far as getting picks for next year in exchange for the opp to get Anderson this year, IDK who the bluechip prospects are that are on Anderson’s level that we will be hoping for. At least on the D side, maybe you could argue Dallas Turner, who is on the other side of Anderson. But lets see how he does without Anderson across from him taking attention. Thats why to me, even though adding premium players, is it worth missing out on an elite player like Anderson or Carter?
Julian L
I think if you can draft Anderson, Carter or Richardson for that matter, you draft them. Only after that listen to trade offers.
On Richardson, the Seahawks can’t pass on him. I still think, irrespective of what contract Geno has, if Richardson is on the board when Seattle pick, take him, red shirt him for a year and then move Geno on in a trade if he’s still playing at that level. That’ll have to be a considered, when structuring a new contract for Geno.
Tien
I’m with Julian. Based on Rob’s review and analysis of Richardson 1) I don’t think he’ll be there by the Hawks first 1st round pick 2) If he’s there, John needs to run to the podium with the paperwork.
Regarding possibly trading with the Colts, even with three 1sts, who knows if we’ll ever have a pick high enough to get an athlete like Anderson.
While I don’t think the Colts are a great team right now, they do have a good/great defense, a great RB, and at least one good WR (Pittman). I do think they are a good QB away from being a legit contender so if they do get the right QB in the draft, their picks should not be high in subsequent years.
Peter
That defense may be good but great it isn’t. They’ve played a soft schedule this year full of inept teams. Houston, Jax, raiders.
Pittman is okay but he’d be the third reciever in Seattle. He’s going yo have about 800 yards per season and three tds per season by the end of the year.
Could be the qb(s) could be he’s a solid but unspectacular player.
Peter
Spectator and I in agreement.
Little concerned that Riley is the reason these qbs succeed. Great for college. Not so for pros.
I’d hope Seattle doesn’t have to kick the can down the round but if they do I will be very fascinated by tvd if/when he transfers.
Hoggs41
If Houstons second pick is high enough I could also see them taking Will Anderson an number 1 and getting one of the 4 QB’s at say 5-7.
Rob i read some comments on Twitter on mock draft article and i understand why you keep repeating you don’t have to like your mock draft. Brave man to post on Twitter but hey SDB members understand you don’t have to agree on all points. We have half season to go then free agency unfortunate injuries so things will change for sure.
Like the mock draft great time for hawks fan. Let’s Ride to #3 pick.
$30 million + /yr on a multi year deal would be a hard pass for me. If that is what he is looking for the Hawks should apply the non – exclusive tag on Geno. OverTheCap.com estimating quarterbacks will receive $31.497 million fully guaranteed under a non-exclusive tag, that’s still well below a top-10 salary at the position in 2023. Other teams would be able to negotiate with him, but the Seahawks would receive two first round picks from another team if they don’t match the offer.
In this scenario the Hawks could also sign Lock and if another team signs Geno they would get two first round picks and could use thier first pick this year on Richardson, Levis or Stroud.
Sea Mode
But I thought the whole point with tagging him is that we wouldn’t be able to fit under our cap next year without using up all our space even after creating? Will have to dig up one of Cha’s comments from a while back…
Trevor
The exclusive Tag will be $40 mil +
The non exclusive tag is $31-33 mil but allows other teams to negotiate and if they Hawks don’t match the get two 1st round picks.
If he is looking for $30 mil + that makes a lot more sense to me. Ideally someone signs Geno to a big deal the Hawks get two 1st Round picks. They re-sign Drew Lock and draft Richardson or Levis.
The end result would be Lock / Richardson or Levis as QB and the Hawks have multiple 1st Rd picks in 2024/2025.
HawkfaninMT
You gotta be comfortable paying Geno the 31-33M though. By adding that tag, a team is now paying $30+M AND the 2 firsts which may be more than they are willing to pay.
Published tomorrow, with another piece from Curtis landing on Friday
Ukhawk
Manifesto – love it!
Rushless pass
Was the manifesto written under a bare bulb? Those are the most interesting
Duck07
IF Geno is getting 30M type offers I think you send him well-wishes for Doubling his career earnings and use that to angle for a 3rd Round Comp pick in 2024.
The roster just has to keep being rebuilt through the draft with how much QBs cost as its also the only way to sustain a roster around “that” QB once you find them.
Nick
Love JL Skinner! He screams Seahawks, as you note.
How does he compare to Obi Melifonwu, a past fav S prospect? Is Skinner a more polished product but maybe not the elite physical upside? Or is it too early to tell before testing? !
Also, watched Top Gun for the first time the other day. Remember you saying it was special. You weren’t wrong. That scene where Rooster says “It’s what my dad would’ve done.” Bloody hell, what a line.
Melifonwu was an incredible athlete but Skinner for me is a terrific football player
Erik
PFN Mock Draft Simulator: Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson, Bijan Robinson, and Mazi Smith. We could all dream, right?
Gaux Hawks
Considering the time it takes to learn the position, maybe we already have our WR3 on the roster…
Marquise Goodwin, Dee Eskridge, Cade Johnson (all rated very high on SDB).
Just a thought th keeps creeping into mind.
Gaux Hawks
Pushing me towards prioritizing RB over WR… (Charbonnet, McIntosh, Rodriguez)
Spectator
What says that it takes time to learn the WR position? Seems like this last years WR class has been balling out.
Hoggs41
Luke Wypler is a potential guy they could be looking at for center. Is 6-3 300 and is in the Brian Allen, Austin Blythe size. Was also a wrestler in high school.
Spectator
I was thinking, we talk about Stroud not having to face the adversity that Levis has. Why is that? It’s not like Stroud has showed to be an Uber athletic with escapability. Could it be that his o-line is that good? So I looked and see that 4 of his line is draft eligible. Have any of them been deeply looked at besides Paris Johnson? I also dug a little and didn’t realize Paris Johnson had played guard up until this year. If he lasted into the early second, would be be a potential fit to move back to guard?
Regarding Wypler, I don’t know much about him, but let’s see how he and the rest of that OSU line does against Michigan and Morris, Maxi Smith and that really good freshman-Graham. I think most will be watching that game on Saturday at 9 lol I sure as heck will be tuned in.
Gaux Hawks
If they double dip in a position, I can see them going Nolan Smith (R2) and Owen Pappoe (R4):
1R23 Anthony Richardson (QB)
1R23 Calijah Kancey (DT)
2R23 Nolan Smith (LB)
2R23 JL Skinner (SS)
3R23 Kenny McIntosh (RB)
4R23 Owen Pappoe (LB)
5R23 Abraham Camara (DB)
KD
I would love to see the Hawks take another RB in this class be it Charbonet, Gibbs, McIntosh, Rodriguez, or whoever. It seems that with Russ out of the picture, PCJS may be going back to their roots with regard to drafting. Let’s remember that they drafted Robert Turbin in 2012 and Christine Michael in 2013 while they still had Marshawn dominating the run game. There is precedent for it. Can’t wait to see Seahawk twitter snort loads of copium if they draft another RB on day 2. 🙂
KD
Interesting side note as well: PFN had Anthony Richardson previously ranked anywhere between 20-40 on their big board via their simulator. He’s at #9 now.
These simulators used to be fun but they are so bad now.
BoiseSeahawk
Agreed…
SEA 5. Will Anderson DE Alabama
SEA 21. Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M
SEA 35. Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame (no way this happens)
SEA 51. Mazi Smith DL Michigan (no way Mazi drops this far)
SEA 86. Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA
SEA 123. Dontrayvion Wicks WR Virginia
SEA 140. Laiatu Latu LB UCLA
SEA 157. Andrew Raym C Oklahoma
SEA 195. Grayson McCall QB Coastal Carolina
Mike714
Would you consider trading the Denver pick for a future 1 as well some picks to maybe grab DTR near end of r2. I just don’t want another bust like Aaron Curry. Would be very happy with charbonnet and skinner, though. Thanks for all the analysis!
Exactly. Strike while the iron is hot. One overlooked outcome I’m enjoying this season is though it’s not a “rebuild,” ( okay Pete whatever you say…new qb, bookend tackles, two new corners, a new running back, two brand new guys playing olb/edge) even if Seattle can’t get the future qb next draft….whether Seattle gets the third overall, fifth, seventh, etc., boards shift as new info comes available.
Re: curry. In a more nascent draft media rich world Curry was seen as one of the better players in that draft. He ended up busting but but that’s going to happen. No one wants busts. With a solid team identity again I think it helps mitigate bust rate.
After paying attention to the draft for so many years busts seem more likely to happen to crap teams in Flux with no identity and high picks because they are in shambles.
Hoggs41
I for sure agree that the QB’s could go Richardson, Levis, Stroud, Young when most of them are the other way around.
KD
Random Thought:
I don’t know how many of you out there are video game fans, but this “reset” feels like a 3rd playthrough of a game. Let’s take a game like Stardew Valley for example. First time I played it, stumbled through it because I was still learning how the game worked, but did pretty good. Second playthrough did way better because I knew what was coming so I could prepare more. Third playthrough I absolutely killed it because i knew how to time everything and in the right proportions.
(BTW Rob, you mentioned that you like playing games with your son, I 100% recommend Stardew Valley. Fun, relaxing game and appropriate for children and families, and the creator is a Seattle native who made the game 100% by himself. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YqdutJLIi8 ) )
With this last draft, it feels like PCJS are in 3rd playthrough mode, and I expect as much out of the next draft because I think this is the mental mode that they are in.
1st playthrough: Bit of a clunker but you start to get it and eventually win despite a lot of trial and error.
2nd playthrough: OK, I got through it the first time, so I know how this works. This one item that I never knew about works really great. I’m going to using that until I win. Oh, it doesn’t work in this situation. Oh, I’m screwed.
3rd playthrough. There was a lot of stuff I didn’t know about, so I’m going to try this again with a plan for all phases of the game.
GatorHawk
Hi Rob,
Long term reader, first time commentator. Thank you for all the amazing content you have created over the years!
As a fan of both the Florida Gators and the Hawks, I have closely followed the career of Richardson. Richardson (AR) is certainly a transcendent physical talent, but he has yet to put two consistent games together over the course of a season. A podcast I follow (the Gator Nation Football Podcast) which breaks down the Gator’s performance weekly via film study has made the following points about AR over time (I’m gathering their talking points over the course of a couple of seasons):
– AR is clearly the best athlete on the field most days
– AR is a lot more comfortable in an offense where he can keep his eye on the field pre snap and while the play unfolds rather than in Billy Napier’s current offense which is play action heavy and requires the QB to turn his back to the defense during the play.
– AR is very raw and requires additional reps and seasoning.
– If AR comes out this year, he will have the lowest on target accuracy of any QB during college currently playing in the NFL (this is different from completion percentage). ~65~ on target accuracy vs ~77% Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. This lack of accuracy is also something that shows when he throws against air in practice.
How much do you feel that last point is something that will drag down his draft ranking? I don’t know if on target accuracy is something that just improves with reps; you either have it or you don’t?
Another Gator player I would like to ask about is Brenton Cox. Cox was dismissed from the Gators team this year, but before his dismissal he was the most effective pash rusher the Gators had. Have you had a chance to evaluate his film? Would he be worth a flyer on?
Romeo A57
I was finally able to get a few dollars on Anthony Richardson to go with the first pick at +7500. I will definitely send Rob some of the winnings if that happens 🙂 I also backed it up with a few dollars on Levis at +1500.
I suspect in a few months that both of those long odds will come way down.
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Excellent mock draft Rob. If we can have a draft like that following the great 2022 draft, we’re on our way to yearly contenders for the Super Bowl like KC usually is. Although I’d love to see one of the DTs Kancey or Smith drop to our 2nd 1st and get Skinner with our 1st 2nd, you’re probably right. He may not last 12 picks or more later than our 2nd 1st rounder.
If Skinner and JA are both strong safeties and we renegotiate or cut Adams, cut Diggs after June 1 to save cap room and not pay him 18 mil., who is available or could you see us drafting in rd. 3 or day 3 at free safety to replace Diggs?
Ryan Neal is an RFA after this year, so hopefully he can be retained if we tender him as a 2nd rounder that gets 3+ mil. as we’ve done with several players in recent years. If we are able to re-sign Neal and draft Skinner while releasing Diggs and Adams after June 1st, which one has the speed and skills to play free safety?
I still think we’re a great draft and franchise QB away from being yearly SB contenders personally. Don’t get me wrong, Geno has done a fantastic job but he is not the QB of the future in my eyes, until we get that we’re probably just another one and done team in the playoffs. We need a QB that can go and win shootouts on a weekly basis if need be.
I hope the Chargers take a wide receiver early. Give Herbert some young talent.
They’re paying Keenan Allen and Mike wWilliams and they drafted Josh Palmer in the 3rd round of 2021. He’s got plenty of talent there
Allen and Williams are hurt all the time, they definitely need help, maybe not in round one but certainly early
They are rarely ever on the field together, and for most of this season it seems weren’t even on the field apart.
A TE would be a huge get for them
We just because you’re paying two players at a position doesn’t mean the jobs getting done. See Jamal Adams and Q Diggs. All these explosive Wars out there and Herbert is stuck with the glass men. Just saying it would be cool if Herbert could throw some bombs to Hyatt.
Loving all the mock content, Rob! Thank you for providing!
Quick question/thought: if the Denver pick ends up being #3 would you personally and would you see the hawks taking the 3 firsts from Indy? Or do you see them standing pat and still taking Anderson?
On one hand, gaining picks is always tantalizing, and if its from the Colts who will be starting a New QB in Stroud who will need years to develop, and having a new Coach, I could easily see those picks being very high in the preceding drafts.
On the other hand, it would be very nice to get a blue-chip prospect in Anderson who many thought was a perennial 1st overall. But your assessment on him this year and that he isnt a Bosa, or Young, or that lights out does bring the joy of getting down slightly.
So would be an interesting situation
I would like the three firsts but I’m still not sure who would give them up. Indy is a mess. They aren’t a qb away. Irsay may be dim enough to do it and you’d almost have to say yes. #14 plus Seattle’s pick could still be great.
Rather than the drip, drip, drip of firsts while woolen, lucas, walker, and probably mafe are getting into free agency. I’d prefer a broncos like move from Indy. 1st, 2nd, 3rd this year and a second next year to really bring the team into a new realm ASAP.
Peter, what else do you think the Colts need to improve on aswwll as QB?
Somethings off with that oline.
And the receiving corps is pretty non descript..
Those 2nd and 3rd wont be very high from Indy this year tho. I understand the want to get as many picks in the meat of this draft, which is the 2nd. There are about 6 players i would absolutely love to grab that are on the big board as 2nd rounders lol but you are trading immediate gratification for what could be potentially high picks next year.
When you say a trade like Denver tho, I would get behind that. 2 firsts and 2 seconds. But again, is that worth the chance to get a blue-chip player like Anderson is the question. Collecting picks would be my choice too, but who is even going to be available at 14? You will be stuck drafting a second-round talent, especially if you are looking to build the D-line. Maybe Breese and Kancey are available, I wouldnt be mad at either of those.
In the 2024 draft, with extra picks, would the Seahawks have a chance to potentially draft the current USC QB-Williams? Looking at 2024 draft, the QB market may be a bit lower than this year, who else could they potentially target at QB if not Williams? What might it take to move up for him remains as a big question.
I mean this whole scenario is predicated on Hawks at least signing back Geno, and potentially even Lock. I doubt those would be 1-year deals, with the thought being that a combination of Geno/Lock are the QBs of the future. We wouldn’t need to get Williams.
On Williams, he seems really unorthodox. I am not a QB evaluator and would leave that to Rob, but my untrained eye sees another product of Lincoln Riley’s system that looks like a great college qb (Baker, and Kyler), but will struggle in the NFL. If we are looking at QBs of the future next year, Id be more interested in Drake Maye who looks like a phenom as a Rs freshman. But SO much can happen even between now and 2024 draft at QB. Ewers will also be eligible. TVD should transfer and come out in 2024. You don’t have the sheer upside as this draft with Richardson, but next year isnt exactly lacking in “potential” at the QB position. But I wont claim to be smart enough to know that for sure.
As far as getting picks for next year in exchange for the opp to get Anderson this year, IDK who the bluechip prospects are that are on Anderson’s level that we will be hoping for. At least on the D side, maybe you could argue Dallas Turner, who is on the other side of Anderson. But lets see how he does without Anderson across from him taking attention. Thats why to me, even though adding premium players, is it worth missing out on an elite player like Anderson or Carter?
I think if you can draft Anderson, Carter or Richardson for that matter, you draft them. Only after that listen to trade offers.
On Richardson, the Seahawks can’t pass on him. I still think, irrespective of what contract Geno has, if Richardson is on the board when Seattle pick, take him, red shirt him for a year and then move Geno on in a trade if he’s still playing at that level. That’ll have to be a considered, when structuring a new contract for Geno.
I’m with Julian. Based on Rob’s review and analysis of Richardson 1) I don’t think he’ll be there by the Hawks first 1st round pick 2) If he’s there, John needs to run to the podium with the paperwork.
Regarding possibly trading with the Colts, even with three 1sts, who knows if we’ll ever have a pick high enough to get an athlete like Anderson.
While I don’t think the Colts are a great team right now, they do have a good/great defense, a great RB, and at least one good WR (Pittman). I do think they are a good QB away from being a legit contender so if they do get the right QB in the draft, their picks should not be high in subsequent years.
That defense may be good but great it isn’t. They’ve played a soft schedule this year full of inept teams. Houston, Jax, raiders.
Pittman is okay but he’d be the third reciever in Seattle. He’s going yo have about 800 yards per season and three tds per season by the end of the year.
Could be the qb(s) could be he’s a solid but unspectacular player.
Spectator and I in agreement.
Little concerned that Riley is the reason these qbs succeed. Great for college. Not so for pros.
I’d hope Seattle doesn’t have to kick the can down the round but if they do I will be very fascinated by tvd if/when he transfers.
If Houstons second pick is high enough I could also see them taking Will Anderson an number 1 and getting one of the 4 QB’s at say 5-7.
I think they would take Carter ahead of Anderson
Rob i read some comments on Twitter on mock draft article and i understand why you keep repeating you don’t have to like your mock draft. Brave man to post on Twitter but hey SDB members understand you don’t have to agree on all points. We have half season to go then free agency unfortunate injuries so things will change for sure.
Like the mock draft great time for hawks fan. Let’s Ride to #3 pick.
Joel Corry thinks ~$30m pa for Geno, worth it??
Notes league average including rookies is $21m
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1699661/former-agent-breaks-down-seahawks-qb-geno-smiths-market-potential-contract/
Thoughts/opinions welcome!
$30 million + /yr on a multi year deal would be a hard pass for me. If that is what he is looking for the Hawks should apply the non – exclusive tag on Geno. OverTheCap.com estimating quarterbacks will receive $31.497 million fully guaranteed under a non-exclusive tag, that’s still well below a top-10 salary at the position in 2023. Other teams would be able to negotiate with him, but the Seahawks would receive two first round picks from another team if they don’t match the offer.
In this scenario the Hawks could also sign Lock and if another team signs Geno they would get two first round picks and could use thier first pick this year on Richardson, Levis or Stroud.
But I thought the whole point with tagging him is that we wouldn’t be able to fit under our cap next year without using up all our space even after creating? Will have to dig up one of Cha’s comments from a while back…
The exclusive Tag will be $40 mil +
The non exclusive tag is $31-33 mil but allows other teams to negotiate and if they Hawks don’t match the get two 1st round picks.
If he is looking for $30 mil + that makes a lot more sense to me. Ideally someone signs Geno to a big deal the Hawks get two 1st Round picks. They re-sign Drew Lock and draft Richardson or Levis.
The end result would be Lock / Richardson or Levis as QB and the Hawks have multiple 1st Rd picks in 2024/2025.
You gotta be comfortable paying Geno the 31-33M though. By adding that tag, a team is now paying $30+M AND the 2 firsts which may be more than they are willing to pay.
$30M+ < $30M+ and 2 1sts
I have a 3000 word manifesto on a Geno contract written up.
Sneak peek: the franchise tag is not a good idea.
Published tomorrow, with another piece from Curtis landing on Friday
Manifesto – love it!
Was the manifesto written under a bare bulb? Those are the most interesting
IF Geno is getting 30M type offers I think you send him well-wishes for Doubling his career earnings and use that to angle for a 3rd Round Comp pick in 2024.
The roster just has to keep being rebuilt through the draft with how much QBs cost as its also the only way to sustain a roster around “that” QB once you find them.
Love JL Skinner! He screams Seahawks, as you note.
How does he compare to Obi Melifonwu, a past fav S prospect? Is Skinner a more polished product but maybe not the elite physical upside? Or is it too early to tell before testing? !
Also, watched Top Gun for the first time the other day. Remember you saying it was special. You weren’t wrong. That scene where Rooster says “It’s what my dad would’ve done.” Bloody hell, what a line.
Melifonwu was an incredible athlete but Skinner for me is a terrific football player
PFN Mock Draft Simulator: Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson, Bijan Robinson, and Mazi Smith. We could all dream, right?
Considering the time it takes to learn the position, maybe we already have our WR3 on the roster…
Marquise Goodwin, Dee Eskridge, Cade Johnson (all rated very high on SDB).
Just a thought th keeps creeping into mind.
Pushing me towards prioritizing RB over WR… (Charbonnet, McIntosh, Rodriguez)
What says that it takes time to learn the WR position? Seems like this last years WR class has been balling out.
Luke Wypler is a potential guy they could be looking at for center. Is 6-3 300 and is in the Brian Allen, Austin Blythe size. Was also a wrestler in high school.
I was thinking, we talk about Stroud not having to face the adversity that Levis has. Why is that? It’s not like Stroud has showed to be an Uber athletic with escapability. Could it be that his o-line is that good? So I looked and see that 4 of his line is draft eligible. Have any of them been deeply looked at besides Paris Johnson? I also dug a little and didn’t realize Paris Johnson had played guard up until this year. If he lasted into the early second, would be be a potential fit to move back to guard?
Regarding Wypler, I don’t know much about him, but let’s see how he and the rest of that OSU line does against Michigan and Morris, Maxi Smith and that really good freshman-Graham. I think most will be watching that game on Saturday at 9 lol I sure as heck will be tuned in.
If they double dip in a position, I can see them going Nolan Smith (R2) and Owen Pappoe (R4):
1R23 Anthony Richardson (QB)
1R23 Calijah Kancey (DT)
2R23 Nolan Smith (LB)
2R23 JL Skinner (SS)
3R23 Kenny McIntosh (RB)
4R23 Owen Pappoe (LB)
5R23 Abraham Camara (DB)
I would love to see the Hawks take another RB in this class be it Charbonet, Gibbs, McIntosh, Rodriguez, or whoever. It seems that with Russ out of the picture, PCJS may be going back to their roots with regard to drafting. Let’s remember that they drafted Robert Turbin in 2012 and Christine Michael in 2013 while they still had Marshawn dominating the run game. There is precedent for it. Can’t wait to see Seahawk twitter snort loads of copium if they draft another RB on day 2. 🙂
Interesting side note as well: PFN had Anthony Richardson previously ranked anywhere between 20-40 on their big board via their simulator. He’s at #9 now.
I’m glad they’re catching up
Same. It’s really frustrating that there just doesn’t seem to be any big board consensus anywhere outside the usual suspects in the top 10.
Group think is rife in draft media
I just drafted Bijan Robinson at 54. They still have a long way to go.
Good grief
pfn-logo-black
SEA 5. Anthony Richardson QB Florida
SEA 21. Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh
SEA 35. JL Skinner S Boise State
SEA 54. Bijan Robinson RB Texas
SEA 85. Olusegun Oluwatimi OC Michigan
These simulators used to be fun but they are so bad now.
Agreed…
SEA 5. Will Anderson DE Alabama
SEA 21. Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M
SEA 35. Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame (no way this happens)
SEA 51. Mazi Smith DL Michigan (no way Mazi drops this far)
SEA 86. Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA
SEA 123. Dontrayvion Wicks WR Virginia
SEA 140. Laiatu Latu LB UCLA
SEA 157. Andrew Raym C Oklahoma
SEA 195. Grayson McCall QB Coastal Carolina
Would you consider trading the Denver pick for a future 1 as well some picks to maybe grab DTR near end of r2. I just don’t want another bust like Aaron Curry. Would be very happy with charbonnet and skinner, though. Thanks for all the analysis!
We can’t live in fear of Curry 2.0
Exactly. Strike while the iron is hot. One overlooked outcome I’m enjoying this season is though it’s not a “rebuild,” ( okay Pete whatever you say…new qb, bookend tackles, two new corners, a new running back, two brand new guys playing olb/edge) even if Seattle can’t get the future qb next draft….whether Seattle gets the third overall, fifth, seventh, etc., boards shift as new info comes available.
Re: curry. In a more nascent draft media rich world Curry was seen as one of the better players in that draft. He ended up busting but but that’s going to happen. No one wants busts. With a solid team identity again I think it helps mitigate bust rate.
After paying attention to the draft for so many years busts seem more likely to happen to crap teams in Flux with no identity and high picks because they are in shambles.
I for sure agree that the QB’s could go Richardson, Levis, Stroud, Young when most of them are the other way around.
Random Thought:
I don’t know how many of you out there are video game fans, but this “reset” feels like a 3rd playthrough of a game. Let’s take a game like Stardew Valley for example. First time I played it, stumbled through it because I was still learning how the game worked, but did pretty good. Second playthrough did way better because I knew what was coming so I could prepare more. Third playthrough I absolutely killed it because i knew how to time everything and in the right proportions.
(BTW Rob, you mentioned that you like playing games with your son, I 100% recommend Stardew Valley. Fun, relaxing game and appropriate for children and families, and the creator is a Seattle native who made the game 100% by himself. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YqdutJLIi8 ) )
With this last draft, it feels like PCJS are in 3rd playthrough mode, and I expect as much out of the next draft because I think this is the mental mode that they are in.
1st playthrough: Bit of a clunker but you start to get it and eventually win despite a lot of trial and error.
2nd playthrough: OK, I got through it the first time, so I know how this works. This one item that I never knew about works really great. I’m going to using that until I win. Oh, it doesn’t work in this situation. Oh, I’m screwed.
3rd playthrough. There was a lot of stuff I didn’t know about, so I’m going to try this again with a plan for all phases of the game.
Hi Rob,
Long term reader, first time commentator. Thank you for all the amazing content you have created over the years!
As a fan of both the Florida Gators and the Hawks, I have closely followed the career of Richardson. Richardson (AR) is certainly a transcendent physical talent, but he has yet to put two consistent games together over the course of a season. A podcast I follow (the Gator Nation Football Podcast) which breaks down the Gator’s performance weekly via film study has made the following points about AR over time (I’m gathering their talking points over the course of a couple of seasons):
– AR is clearly the best athlete on the field most days
– AR is a lot more comfortable in an offense where he can keep his eye on the field pre snap and while the play unfolds rather than in Billy Napier’s current offense which is play action heavy and requires the QB to turn his back to the defense during the play.
– AR is very raw and requires additional reps and seasoning.
– If AR comes out this year, he will have the lowest on target accuracy of any QB during college currently playing in the NFL (this is different from completion percentage). ~65~ on target accuracy vs ~77% Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. This lack of accuracy is also something that shows when he throws against air in practice.
How much do you feel that last point is something that will drag down his draft ranking? I don’t know if on target accuracy is something that just improves with reps; you either have it or you don’t?
Another Gator player I would like to ask about is Brenton Cox. Cox was dismissed from the Gators team this year, but before his dismissal he was the most effective pash rusher the Gators had. Have you had a chance to evaluate his film? Would he be worth a flyer on?
I was finally able to get a few dollars on Anthony Richardson to go with the first pick at +7500. I will definitely send Rob some of the winnings if that happens 🙂 I also backed it up with a few dollars on Levis at +1500.
I suspect in a few months that both of those long odds will come way down.