The mocks we do here generally look at situations. ‘Who will be available at #25 if a certain team drafts a certain player.’ You know the drill by now.
This weeks projection is different. Sure, there are scenarios we can point to — such as Ziggy Ansah going in the top ten or two quarterbacks going early. But the idea this week is to compare how things look before and after the combine. So I’ve tried to make a projection based on how I see things unfolding in Indianapolis. Who moves up the board. Who falls. We’ll see how accurate it is next week.
There’s no revelation with Seattle’s pick. Several defensive lineman are already off the board. In this projection it basically comes down to how much the Seahawks are determined to fill their biggest need. Is a 25-year-old Sylvester Williams the answer? Or a big body like Johnathan Hankins that offers no pass rush? Or are they more likely to wait until later? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility Jonathan Jenkins drops to #56. Terrance Cody was the 57th pick in 2010. I don’t see any pressure to add a new defensive tackle in round one unless one of the superior interior pass rushers falls to #25.
A few people will groan at the selection of Khaseem Greene and this is the third mock where I’ve had him going to the Seahawks. He ticks a lot of the boxes this team goes for. Turnover machine? Check. High character? Check. Plus athleticism? Check. He also fills a position of need and he’s the kind of ‘not talked about’ player I can just see John Schneider and Pete Carroll drafting in the first. And hey, if they want to improve the pass rush and third down defense — Greene will be an asset in nickel formations (replacing K.J. Wright?), he’s adept covering underneath and sniffing out screens plus he’s a good blitzer.
Improving the defensive line is the greatest need (and free agency could still provide a solution there) but I don’t think this team will fight their draft board. I suspect they’ll take a player they like, not a player they kind of like to fill a superior need. Nobody will be complaining if Greene manages the same kind of impact as Bobby Wagner. Perhaps he’s not a big enough name to get people excited? That shouldn’t matter. He’s a playmaker. Simple as that.
I also wouldn’t rule out the Seahawks re-signing Alan Branch. If they want to keep size up front and avoid a big free agent splash on a Henry Melton or Randy Starks, they might attempt to keep Branch while adding a situational rusher to the rotation via the middle rounds.
One final note before we get into it. Apparently Keenan Allen won’t work out at the combine. It’s not a major surprise — he wasn’t expected to perform particularly well. The thing is, there’s nothing positive about this news. Either it’s another injury complaint (they’re totting up now) or he’s hiding. So while the rest of the media focuses and complains about Matt Barkley not throwing to uncovered receivers in shorts, maybe it’s time to start questioning Keenan Allen’s credentials as the sure-fire first round lock many believe he’s going to be? Kawann Short also won’t work out due to injury and will host a personal pro-day on March 26th.
Cal’s Keenan Allen, projected as a top WR in upcoming draft, is nursing a sprained PCL that will prevent him from working out at combine.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 20, 2013
First round
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#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) They desperately need a quarterback but if Branden Albert’s back issues are legit, this becomes more likely. |
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#2 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) Floyd has a ton of upside. He could play the one or three technique in Gus Bradley’s scheme. |
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#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) Limitless potential. The combine will be friendly to Dion Jordan. |
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#4 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) If they can’t get at Floyd or Jordan, they might settle for Fisher. |
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#5 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Lions could use an edge rusher, especially if they lose Cliff Avril. |
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#6 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) May just enough upside to get into this range. |
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#7 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) After the fiasco of 2012, don’t expect Arizona to do anything but draft a quarterback here. |
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#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) They have some nice pieces in Buffalo but they must find a quarterback. |
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#9 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Good luck stopping a three man front of Lotulelei, Coples and Wilkerson. |
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#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) Prototype three-technique. |
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#11 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) A pure technician. |
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#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) Incredible potential, can have an immediate impact. |
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#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback prospect. This would be a steal. |
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#14 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) This will help Carolina prosper in the run game, which they haven’t done for a while. |
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#15 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) He needs to flash at the combine. |
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#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) Vaccaro would be a nice addition to St. Louis’ defense. |
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#17 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU) This could be Pittsburgh’s biggest need. |
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#18 Kawann Short (DT, Purdue) Monte Kiffin’s defense usually includes a good interior pass rusher. |
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#19 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) With a lot of the top defensive players off the board, they could look to the offensive line. |
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#20 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Assuming they get a tackle in free agency, this is step two in improving the offensive line. |
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#21 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Someone will draft this guy in round one. Book it. |
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#22 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) Brilliant tight end prospect. |
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#23 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) The spinal stenosis issue could lead to a fall. Someone will take a shot. |
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#24 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) More than anything they need to bolster the offensive line. |
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#25 Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers) I can envisage people in Seattle’s front office banging the table for this guy. |
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#26 Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State) Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are free agents. They could go for a pass catcher here. |
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#27 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) He’d be a perfect compliment to Andre Johnson. |
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#28 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) After a rough ride in the playoffs, the Broncos could boost their secondary here. |
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#29 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) Cornerback is a need for the Patriots. |
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#30 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) An ideal replacement for the ageing Michael Turner. |
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#31 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State) More size up front for the Niners. |
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#32 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Tough shoes to fill, but the Ravens often look for value in round one. |
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
#34 Kansas City – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#35 Philadelphia – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#36 Detroit – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#37 Cincinnati – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#38 Arizona – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#39 New York Jets – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#40 Tennessee – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#41 Buffalo – Jordan Reed (TE, Florida)
#42 Miami – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#43 Tampa Bay – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#44 Carolina – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#45 San Diego – Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#46 St. Louis – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#47 Dallas – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#48 Pittsburgh – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#50 Chicago – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#51 Washington – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)
#52 Minnesota – Datone Jones (DT, UCLA)
#53 Cincinnati – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#54 Miami – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Steadman Bailey (WR, West Virginia)
#57 Houston – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#58 Denver – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#59 New England – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#60 Atlanta – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#61 San Francisco – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#62 Baltimore – Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
Projected Seahawks third round pick: Jordan Hill (DT, Penn State)
First mock where I’ve seen Allen and Mingo not in the 1st round. Seems like if either of those players fall to us we take them but who knows. I still like Arthur Brown better than Khaseem Greene but wouldn’t mind seeing either in Seahawk blue.
I’m not sure why Seattle would be penned into those two picks. Mingo… well they already have that player in Irvin. Allen… overrated. Big time. Competitive, sparky, athletic — but not the top-15 pick some think.
I don’t think Allen had a chance to prove his full potential at Cal.
Perhaps not, but it was his decision to go and play with his quarterback brother. He could’ve gone to Alabama. He was running in the 4.5’s in high school 20lbs lighter than he is now. His technical development is much lower than some receivers because his brother couldn’t throw with any kind of accuracy beyond ten yards. And he’s now picking up nagging injuries. I’m not sold. Competitive, worth a shot in round two… yes. But not a top-15 pick like many think. And he would’ve run a lousy time at the combine.
To be fair, Seattle has drafted a lot of players you didn’t want early. Okung was your favorite whipping boy on the OL in 2010. I remember you being somewhat anti-Irvin (for an understandable reason- size). And of course, Russell Wilson. I remember Kyle was extremely against Golden Tate, can’t remember where you were on that one. Same thing with Moffitt.
Of course, you’ve called a lot of things right too, Carpenter in the first round for some team, Jimmy Clausen being a fraud, Gabbert going top 10, etc. The point is that just because you personally think a player is overrated, that doesn’t mean Seattle will feel the same way. There are many examples where they felt completely the opposite of the way you did.
That’s true for me as well, so I always separate where I rank players and where I estimate Seattle ranks players. For example, Barkevious Mingo scares the bejeebus out of me, but if he’s there at #25 I’d almost be shocked if Seattle passed on him. He’ll be the fastest pass rusher in the draft by a longshot, and while it’s true that he could become redundant with Irvin, Seattle is no stranger to making moves that seem like headscratchers at the time.
I was never anti-Irvin. I don’t understand that. I wrote a piece pre-2011 season saying he would be a top ten pick. Like everyone else I was a little concerned about how he’d coped in a full time role at WVU and didn’t expect him to be a round one pick. Who did? Okung I wasn’t a fan of as a top five pick. I had him in the 16-32 range and thought he would fall a bit like Michael Oher the previous year. I thought Moffitt was just a guy (proven fairly correct so far) and I thought Tate was good value where we got him, I didn’t think he was a round one pick. I think that was Kyle’s point too.
Seattle had a 1st round grade on Tate. They took him as the BPA.
Whether they had a round one grade or not, he still went in the late second. I’m not sure they would’ve drafted him in round one, there may have been preferred options at every stage possible. In the late second I saw him as a ‘why not?’ type pick. But I wouldn’t have drafted him in the first because of the technical improvements he had to make. And a year ago everyone would’ve said those issues were holding him back. He was verging on a bust going into the 2012 season. It clicked this year, thankfully. But I think my assessment of Tate coming into the league was pretty accurate and fair.
Kind of missing my point. My point is that you have to have two boards- what you think and what you think they think. They are not the same thing. For example, I agree that Keenan Allen is a touch overrated, but Seattle might bust out in celebration drafting him at #25 for all we know. He definitely fits their profile to a tee. You can’t just say that you don’t like Allen and therefore you can’t see Seattle drafting him early.
But I can’t speak for the Seahawks. If I think a guy’s overrated, I’ll just call it. My mocks would look the same as everyone else’s if I qualified every differing opinion with… “but X team might think differently.” I think Allen is overrated. I have no idea what the Seahawks think about him. They might agree or disagree with that. If someone comes to talk about Allen though, I’ll say he’s overrated.
For me the injury issues right off the top are enough of a concern to drop him.
Agree that Keenan Allen is way overrated … not one of the 5 best receivers in this class behind Hopkins, Hunter, Williams, Wheaton, Bailey and Patterson, IMO. Mingo on the other hand is the ideal LEO. I love Bruce’s motor, but he just does not look like he has learned a single thing in his rookie season as far as technique. I am not sure that with his age, he can develop into Clemons. He might just be situational guy dancing around frantically in front of the RT. I think you pull the trigger on Mingo there, but there is no way I see him falling out of the Top 20.
Also agree with Arthur Brown over Khaseem Greene based solely on the more violent style of Brown’s play.
Honestly, I think that Bailey and Hopkins are both lame. They don’t give you anything that baldwin, tate, sidney, miller, or mccoy don’t already.
Is there any speedy deep threat recievers that Russell can use to take the top off of defenses while spending a couple years to fully develop? That is an element that we don’t have in the seahawks offense, and I doubt we are going to solve it in free agency because the deep threats like Mike Wallace are asking for many millions of dollars.
I agree. Watching the Bailey tape, I see Baldwin. Watching the Hopkins tape, I see Rice. I would personally like to see something a bit more different at WR for hte team. I would have Wheaton or Austin higher at least as fits with the Seahawks. Or a joker/move TE before Hopkins or Bailey. It wouldn’t be bad picks but they wouldn’t be exciting (not that picks need to be exciting though…)
Marquise Goodwin.
The Seahawks haven’t looked for smaller, faster (Wheaton) or manufactured production (Austin).
right. If they were, however, I see Goodwin as a better value. I think their quest for size at the position continues.
The problem for me with Austin has been that we don’t do YAC. Most of Tate’s catches are near the sideline jump balls. It would be great if we ran some sreens to anyone besides slow as molasses McCoy and just a bit faster Miller, and the occasional short wheel routes to Robinson, but the scheme doesn’t do that.
I guess I find it hard to envisage drafting someone smaller with moves, like Tavon Austin, when we already have a converted RB who is a little short for WR and we still play him for the jump ball. Are we going to suddenly change the plan if we were to draft austin and do more end arounds, reverses, bubble screens?
Wheaton I can see, for speed purposes, but to me Hopkins and bailey, then Wheaton. Regardless of fantasy stats and hyperbolic praise ala Percy Harvin being “the most dynamic,” player in the game, steady production in the vain of Anquan Boldin or even a pre seattle TJ houshmanzadeh is nothing to scoff at. More then two receivers that can give you 900 yards, 7 td’s 70 catches and a handful or less of drops is something that I can not ever remember Seattle having.
I would love to have a younger, cheaper, healthy Sidney Rice personally.
Marquis colston?
Spot on. While the Hawks are in good position for the cap this year, as they have to take care of the young stars beginning after this season, and continuing (we hope) into perpetuity, they will have to be attentive to value. They need to constantly groom young players to take over for the high priced vets. The next stage of Win Forever might be more interesting than the last three years. From JS’s comments about Matt Flynn yesterday, I’m confident he is planning. Execution will be more difficult, however. PCJS have shown the requisite chops in drafting, which is one leg of the stool. PC and staff seem as well to be up to the coaching end. But the third leg, which may be even more difficult, is keeping the locker room, when you have to make tough business calls. For example, with Clemons’ injury, it seems hard to justify keeping his contract on the books; long term, the Hawks need to consider cutting him loose on an injury settlement and taking the cap hit this year. But I can’t imagine that would play well in the locker room. (Disclaimer: I am not knowledgeable enough about NFL contract rules to know if you can cut an injured veteran and, if so, what the consequences are for the cap.)
Hopkins and Bailey can both get deep. Watch the Bailey game tape. He does it time and time again.
But will he be able to do that consistently at the next level? I think not. If he times well at the combine my opinion of him could change drastically. He just doesn’t appear dramatically faster than the competition, like Wheaton.
I’ve not seen anything to make me doubt that Bailey’s production is genuine. He’s not a gimmicky player.
How many blazing fast WRs struggle in the NFL? A shitload. Why, do you think?
Because it takes skill to succeed at the position, not simple athleticism. And that’s what I saw watching the Bailey tape. He skillfully gets open through superior route-running. He catches the ball well (again, skill) and he is elusive (to a degree) when he has the ball.
Pure blazing speed is overrated. Bailey is fast enough, and doesn’t need to run a sub 4.4 40 to prove it.
Having said all that, I don’t know how his college tape compares to Tate, or somebody like Deon Butler, another successful college WR (broke Bobby Engram’s college records). They could look very similar, for all I know, meaning that Bailey might enter the NFL and perform closer to the average than anything truly special.
This whole ‘manufactured production’, we might have to “change the offense”, he is a “gimmicky player”- when talking about Tavon Austin is absurd!
You are telling me he is too short at 5-9, but then stand there and tell me Bailey at 5-10 is tall enough! What the…?
Tavon is a football player. He is an EXPLOSIVE and VERY Talented player.
I don’t care HOW he would get the ball, just get it into his hands! Period.
Russell Wilson is a ‘memory machine’. You are telling me that Bevell couldn’t develop just a handful of plays to USE Tavon’s skill set? And some how BECAUSE we would have to add some plays that makes Tavon a “lesser threat’ as a football player? I don’t get this!!
If we used him in the pistol off play action, he would be enormous! I know we have Tate, but his contract is up NEXT year, and Tavon is MUCH more versatile a player.
He had 114 receptions for 1289 yards, 12 TD’s
He had 72 carries for 643 yards, 3 TD’s
He also has 32 KR’s for 813 yards and 1 TD
…and 15 PR’s for 165 yards and 1 TD
And when you watch him do this, he looks like NO OTHER player out there.
I’m not saying Stedman isn’t good, I love his TD production through the air, but really no one else sees the potential here??
Why are there such haters of Austin. I’ve mentioned him before and peeps reply with “I don’t want to see my ‘beloved’ Seahawks take a guy like Austin???” HUH?
He was the total yards from scrimmage LEADER for the NCAA. Period.
So outside of supposed height, durability issues(shows no weaknesses), and him “requiring” some plays just for him, what would keep us off this guy?
We get a future Tate replacement, a RB/WR/KR/PR for 1 pick… Then Leon can be let go or traded too!
Please explain this disconnect here between a great player, and the conclusions of that player!
(For those tired of hearing about my desire for Tavon on our team, I will stop here!)
Austin’s production was extremely manufactured. They correctly assessed that he was at his best with the ball in front of a defense because he’s adept at making people miss. He’s not a great downfield receiver. Bailey has been a lot more accomplished with more natural routes. They had Austin running endless jet sweeps, screens, end arounds and then eventually snaps at tailback to generate his ability with the ball in hand. That won’t work in the NFL. It’ll be gimmicky. We saw it with Dexter McCluster. He has to prove he can be DeSean Jackson instead of McCluster. And I’m sceptical. Bailey on the other hand is probably the smoothest receiver to enter the league since AJ Green. He’s just lacking size.
All do respect Rob, but you said “That won’t work in the NFL. It’ll be gimmicky.”
You have ZERO proof of that. Period. And for that to be your reasoning seems weak. Oh, he simply Can’t succeed! Come on…that’s a bit of a stretch, isn’t it??
There are plenty of plays with him in the slot and outside too…
He could be the next Harvin/Sproles type player. And it bums me out that you give him no shot at succeeding…
If the 9ers take him, we will see how ‘unsuccessful’ he will be…
Bigons
Hang on a minute, I didn’t say he ‘simply can’t succeed’. I said the constant use of jet sweeps, having a 5-9 174lbs receiver taking snaps at tailback and running end around’s won’t work. Not as a consistent force. There’s nothing weak about an argument that says a guy with Tavon Austin’s stature won’t be able to play running back in the NFL. He has to convince people that he can be DeSean Jackson and not Dexter McCluster, who did exactly the same things at Ole Miss (save the jet sweep).
Sproles is a thick set bowling ball and I’m yet to see any player… any at all… that compares to Harvin. Austin is very different. Fun player to watch in college, he makes people miss in a way that is incomparable in this draft class. But if you have to force the ball into his hands then it’s a concern. The way he succeeded at WVU will not translate. If he can move beyond that, he has a shot. But I’m not optimistic.
Ok Rob…It’ll be fun to watch who takes the ‘risk’ on him, and if he can translate into the NFL… I hope he can. He makes games VERY fun to watch! No?
Cheers
Possibly the most fun player to watch in college football in 2012. I hope it translates for that reason alone, unless he’s drafted by another NFC West team.
I forget were I saw it but someone did a break down on Tavon’s RAC stats. He had an insane RAC number on 1-5 yrs passes but was below average on deeper passes. Basically he is great in the short slants when the QB hits him in-stride and he can run away from his defender but not so great when the defender has time time to react when the ball is in the air. In the NFL the field is smaller and the defenders are faster. It is fair to question how his game will translate.
You have to think, if we manufacture plays for him the D will pick up on those plays. As wonderful a player as he is in college I don’t think he’ll translate. I hate to say it but Rob is right to much McCluster comparisions
Rob, I am pretty sure Finley is not a free agent. That doesn’t mean the Packers won’t take Escobar, but just saying.
You’re right he isn’t a free agent… but there’s a lot of talk that he’ll be cut.
I love the Escobar pick. Finley has hands of stone and doesn’t do anything in the locker room to make up for it. Escobar with Rodgers throwing to him would be a scary receiving option. The only thing I would bring up is the number of sacks Rodgers took last season, and Escobar doesn’t look like he would help much in the blocking aspects of the position.
I would cry tears of joy of if Seattle came away with these two picks. Perfect complements the guys already there.
*Perfect complements to the guys already there
Why? I don’t see why Bailey is better than a Mike Wallace clone. Get Wheaton!
But if you’re going to pick a smaller receiver I would much rather have a guy that is a tough, gritty route runner and will go up and get the ball. Bailey plays much bigger than frame while still being an explosive play-maker. I’ll take that guy over the speed merchant any day.
I would agree with that, if it weren’t for the big time arm talent if Russell Wilson. He can nail the deep ball so well it would be a shame if the offense didn’t have at least one major threat to go deep like a Justin Hunter or a Marcus Wheaton.
Plus, we found Baldwin in UFA. I don’t think a successful speed-merchant reciever has been found outside the first three or four rounds.
Calvin Johnson…4.38/40!
If the hawks come away with Greene, Bailey & Hill in the first the rounds, I’d shart myself. Not liking Hankins to the 9ers……I’d prefer they draft another WR and bench him. hahahahahaha Keep up the great work!
Props to the Dolphins, who come out of the second round with a Cordarrelle, a Blidi, and an Oday.
Regarding perfect complements, I think the perfect complement at WR would be a taller, more physical receiver. We’re taking him based on value at #56.
Some people seem to think Greene is a mid-round choice (on Softy’s show, I think Lande projected him in the 3-4 range). I know nobody’s word on this is gospel, but what are the chances of Greene making it to at least round two, and therefore being able to pair him up with a DeAndre Hopkins from round one instead of Bailey from round two?
It’s possible, but Hopkins isn’t a tall physical receiver either. Lande also has Ryan Nassib ranked as the #1 overall prospect in the entire draft, so there’s that. Greene will not last into the round 3-4 range. He just won’t.
Agreed. Not to crap on Lande…but I know he had a very brief stint in the NFL world, but he has made some atrocious “big boards.” as a UW fan, seeing Alameda Ta’amu as a top 8 player blew my mind and forever left me hesitant with his “scouting.”
I appreciate how bold he is, but I am not terribly sure how anyone can honestly call Nassib the best player in the draft. Additionally, Greene in the mid round range is absurd too. You don’t win DPOY twice, whilst having great athletic ability and pristine character, and last til the mid rounds…in a passing league that loves athletic, day 1, starting LBers.
Of course nobody has a crystal ball but if the FO felt that these were the two players they wanted, then they should trade out of the first round and pick up an additional 2nd and 3rd. In doing that perhaps in the 2nd round they take TE REED and WLB GREENE and in the 3rd round they draft WR BAILEY and DT HILL. Do I know these players will be there, no of course not but as our good buddy MEL KIPER’s best point is you need to draft for “VALUE” in the early rounds. The question is our value or JS’s value…
Rob, of any mocker out there, you are the best, thank you as always for your fine work.
I know that this is going to be a weird comment but I don’t think Paul Allen is going to want to draft Greene because of Greene’s degree. Greene majored in Labor Relations so you would be drafting the new player rep for the players union. Do I think Greene will be the pick yes but I think Mr. Allen would prefer someone that he isn’t paying a whole lot to be the rep not a 1st rounder, yes.
Rob, if we resign Branch can you see the FO going after someone like Hunt in the 2nd to play the Jason Jones role. Hunt has shown that he can get skinny and create pressure.
I went off Hunt when he looked incredibly mediocre at the Senior Bowl. Wanted to see him do at least half of what Ziggy Ansah did.
Rob, how much input does Paul Allen have on draft day in your opinion? I have always thought of him as the kind of owner that lets the football guys make the football decisions, but I don’t really have any facts to back this up… Just the feeling I get. Thoughts?
I think he has zero input… just goes along for the ride like we do.
I think so too, and I love him for that. Deepest pockets in the league and he avoids the Al Davis, Jerry Jones micromanagement syndrome. If only he would buy the Mariners too…
I bet he has some input… He is notorious for influencing the trailblazers draft picks I doubt he lays back in the Seahawks draft room. It might be he like basketball better then football but I just don’t think he would be so hands on for one team and not another
Do you have any evidence for him being hands on? Every thing I have ever seen says he is not. I think it was also something Carol got agreement on before signing his contract. At most I think he would be informed of the draft board and ask questions.
Maybe if we were going to sign Peyton Manning in FA his input and okay would be sought.
No evidence just going off how he acts with his other pro sports teams. I just assume if he plays such a big role with his nba team he would want same input with nfl team. That being said you might be right that Carroll might have negotiated that in his contract to have complete control. I still would be surprised if Allen doesn’t have some voice in the room even if it isn’t a deciding vote.
Hey Rob, No Justin Hunter in the top 2 rounds? I thought he was a top 5 rated WR
Not for me. Too inconsistent. He might give his stock a boost this week especially if he looks completely healthy. But the 2012 tape was not kind to Justin Hunter.
Very interesting you have Mingo in the second. I don’t think I’ve seen that anywhere else. I usually see Jordan ranked behind Mingo, but you have them reversed, by a wide margin. Care to expand on that? Is it versatility and size? Both seem a bit unrefined by very athletic.
*but* very athletic
I think Jordan has the greater upside after further tape review. I was surprised just how often he was being asked to do something other than pass rush at Oregon, and it allayed some of my fears about his production. When he’s asked to attack the edge, my god he is good. Quick first step, rounds the edge, finishes. I think he’ll get better and better. In that regard. But it’s the fact when he was asked to do other things like drop and cover, he did them. And did them well. He could just about play four positions at the next level. He didn’t struggle as much with leverage as I thought at 6-7. He plays the run well enough. On the right team, he’ll be a big time threat. And I think teams are going to see that he could probably add weight and get even better. I expect a big combine performance.
Mingo has one or two plays every game where your jaw drops he’s so quick off the snap. You see it flash. Then it goes away. I found I was watching a lot of tape where he just wasn’t really doing anything. I couldn’t find an excuse for his lack of production like Jordan. I watched plenty of LSU games last year and barely noticed Mingo and after sitting down this week to study him a little more (two games) it kind of confirmed what I thought. I’m not sure I want him playing 3-4 OLB, but then he’s quite niche (aka LEO) for the 4-3. The Seahawks could draft him. I could see it if he’s there at #25. But then I think you’re looking at two LEO first round picks and I’m not sure they’ll feel that’s necessary. Plus Carroll had previous with Irvin that he doesn’t with Mingo. I don’t think he’ll wow like Jordan at the combine, his ten yard split will be one of the most important there. He gets caught into blocks too easily, doesn’t make the most of his speed. He has a competitive streak that I want to see more of. I’m going to watch more tape but I think he’s a player who could fall a bit. We’ll see.
Interesting. Thanks for your thoughts.
24 mins of Mingo tape here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w
He’s not the first. Mayock has gone on record saying that he thinks Mingo will go between 25-40.
Interesting. Another place I frequent has him as the top pure pass rusher. Funny how the perspectives vary. I don’t question the merits here so much as want to know them. I prefer Jordan for the same reasons Rob gives.
I think that if both Smith and Barkley are available to AZ, they look around the division at Wilson and Kaepernick and take Smith, even if Barkley is the better passer.
Could happen. Although I’ve watched a lot of WVU tape over the last three days looking at Bailey and Austin and I’ve got to say, I think Smith had a lousy end to the season.
What are the chances Arizona takes E.J. Manuel instead? He is the most similar Quarterback to what Seattle and San Fran have, and a personal favorite prospect.
I wouldn’t want to rely on Manuel after last years disaster at QB.
More on the “re-sign” Branch reasoning, do you think the Seahawks might look at adding Sammy Lee Hill instead? They may see him as a rotational 3 technique run stopper, then draft exclusively pass rushers and not worry about those players run defense. Perhaps Hill could offer what Branch does while being younger, and all things from a positional value being equal pay him instead.
Something I’ve though about lately, does Pete want to rotate personnel for situations or just have 4 starters and the rest are depth/similar skill set players? Running a system using situational skill players really allows Seattle to target FA with lower value as run defensive tackles and avoid the big money pass rushers. Seattle then can draft exclusively for speed pass rushers and hope some of them stick. Just an idea, seems like it could work for our defense and run defense tackles are probably more team contract friendly than the Mario Williams type of contracts.
Also, the last thing I want Seattle to do is pick a Sylvester Williams in terms of need and value if a higher rated player from another position is sitting there. I don’t want to make the Lawrence Jackson, Balmer selection to just fill a need. Get Hopkins or Greene or even Ertz in that situation. I think of it as “if we add Williams, he would be the 3rd or 4th DT on our team; if we added Hopkins or Ertz, either might challenge for #1 at their positions”.
Hill’s pretty one-dimensional. I think if they actively pursue another free agent defensive tackle, it’ll be someone who can add greater push than Branch. Maybe he’ll be cheaper, but I like what Branch offered. I just wish he was a better pass rusher. I think you make a good point on situational guys and we’ve seen real evidence of that so far. And as much as I like parts of Sylvester Williams’ game, I agree we shouldn’t be passing on other players for the sake of it. If Ertz is there I’m all over that.
A linebacker in Rd. 1 and a smallish WR? Hate it.
And you would take instead….. ?
Good question – I know you study this stuff way more than I do and maybe I’m just too married to the concept of “position value.” Do the 49ers regret taking Patrick Willis because in the 1st? Probably not. Getting a quality starter in the 1st (i.e. Greene) is more important that getting a mediocre player at a position of “greater” value I think so in that regard I think your Greene pick is good. I also understand the desire to try to get the last couple of pieces for a mega defense – legion of BOOM! I just think we need to invest some early picks on the offensive side of the ball for a couple of reasons: (1) our cap seems skewed toward offensive side now and I’m wondering if this might be a problem when our young defensive stud playmakers come up on free agency – we’ll need young offensive playmakers to step in to replace the older expensive ones we gave to release (2) help maximize the talents franchise QB (3) sometimes offensive players – particularly WR need a developmental year…start that process now before we lose Rice for cap reasons or injury (4) WR and tight end position is thin and we have some injury concerns there (Rices’s history of injury and Miller’s foot). So, in summation I have a more general desire for offensive playmakers early as opposed to a specific player – I’ll let JS and PC pick that guy and hopefully snag some mid to late round gems on defense. If that seems like too much of a wishy -wash answer I can throw out my uneducated guess of a player name: TE Escobar. I Russell throwing to Miller against the Falcons was awesome – do how about a mismatch machine like Escobar for our QB?
Sorry about typos – typing on phone tough!
I’m not sure I take Bailey over Wheaton. Not that he’s a beterr player, Wheaton seems like a Seahawk. I love his tenacity in blocking. And no-one on our team has his speed. I just think we take a player with abilities that we don’t have on our roster.
Love the Greene pick, still.
At this point my ideal scenario would be getting Greene and Wheaton with the first two picks and perhaps with a trade down from 25 (to get Greene a little later) could allow to get the best available joker type TE and best DL in the 3rd round. But Greene and Wheaton have become the two players that I really want to be seahawks.
I like Greene but I have two concerns about picking a LB in first round.
One is it does nothing for our pass rush or issues with third down defense.
The other is that we have been able to find linebackers in later rounds.
I would prefer a defensive linemen like Daton Jones or Jesse Williams (or Short).
I should have added that I’m assuming the DL is addressed in free agency making the WLB in first more palatable for most people I guess. I would be comfortable picking Greene at any spot after Richardson is gone, even if that meant a top 15 pick.
Agree.
I wouldn’t be excited about an LB pick whatsoever. Fill it in the 3rd round if the Hawks really feel they need to, but using a 1st rounder seems somewhat senseless to me if there are still decent DTs or DEs available in the 1st. There’s are some gaping holes in the dam, and it isn’t going to sink our season if we can’t find a 1st round stud to play at LB. If we can’t get some studs at 3tech or another quality DE though, then the season could be sunk.
What DE or DT would you take then? Anyone can point at a faceless defensive lineman and say that should be the pick. We need names.
I don’t see how it does nothing for the pass rush or third down defense. Apart from being a terrific blitzer, he’s also adept in underneath coverage and would be an asset in nickel. As for finding linebackers in later rounds… they took Wagner pretty early and that worked out very well.
I did give you two defensive names that would at least penetrate the offensive line. I like Greene but as you said he would have to blitz to add pressure. We already have 4 linemen who should be doing this job. We have been successful in finding coverage types in later rounds , KJ was a fourth. If you do want blitzing then why not move Irving around and let him blitz from unpredictable positions? I think he would be more successful that way. And if we want coverage we should probably pick the top cornerback available. We got burned on a lot of long passes last year.
Jesse Williams is a run stuffer. Maybe he becomes a pass rusher, maybe he doesn’t. Datone Jones could be awesome if he has a spot on the line the way Seattle runs it. Top corner is not a bad move, but we still need someone in and out of nickel to take away the shallow middle,, and that’s where Greene comes in. I’d love to see Greene magically in the third round, hell let’s push everyone to the third round while we are at it….But someone who creates turnovers, can blitz, can cover, and can tackle correctly is not a bad get any day.
We got burned on a lot of long passes last year? Really? That’s a fairly misguided statement. The Seahawks were one of the best teams in the league in defending the deep pass. I don’t know where you get that from.
Personally, the value of a Greene or Ogletree in round 1 far outweighs any of the D-linemen not named Richardson or Floyd. We can find quality D linemen in the later rounds as this draft is loaded with them. Adding Greene or Ogletree makes you better in underneath coverage (that is where we need help) and will make a good front 7 possibly elite.
It’s all about value.
agree 100%. We can find solid D-lineman in the second and third rounds but Linebackers that can do it all (i.e. Greene and Ogletree) are going to be hard to find after the first. The value is key here. But then again, the FO did choose Irvin in the first and he provides limited value.
I don’t agree at all. We already have linebackers who can play. Smith can fill in at the Will spot. We don’t have a defensive line that is healthy or able to provide pressure. Jesse Williams is more than a run stopper- he also can collapse the pocket allowing Irving a chance to get a sack. Daton Jones will be also be able to collapse the pocket and pick up sacks.
Another linebacker can be found in later rounds. They simply will not have the impact that a good DT or DE will have because we already have decent to elite coverage guys.
I’ve seen very little evidence of Jesse Williams collapsing a pocket. He reminds me of Stephen Paea. Pain in the ass to move, but not a pass rusher in the slightest. As for Jones, a brave man drafts him to start as an interior pass rusher on early downs. He’s 280lbs.
And I’ll keep banging the Bobby Wagner drum. If Greene or any other LB has the same impact, then it’s worth the pick. We cannot write that off as an option early in the draft.
I highly disagree with that. Taking a WLB is a terrible value in round one. I can think of maybe 1 or 2 non-pass-rushing LBs taken in the first round since we whiffed on Aaron Curry. It’s not a premium position, and there will be quality players available there later. Our LBs were not the reason we struggled on 3rd and long. You can pin that on the lack of pass rush, the slot corner, and Kam Chancellor’s struggles this year. A nickel corner would play the same amount of snaps as a WLB, and would be an enormous upgrade. I’d sooner take Trufant given this scenario.
‘Right tackle who could play guard’ isn’t a premium position either, and the last time they owned the #25 pick that’s what they drafted. You pick players, not positions.
Greene and Ogletree fill more holes than just the WLB spot. Watch some of Greene’s tape; he recognizes plays before they unfold. He’s a smart player who would help defend against the short, quick routes (effectively replacing Wright in the Nickel packages). Maybe you didn’t notice, but the Amendolas and Welkers of the league torched us last year. Ogletree, on the other hand, is just a freak athlete. Given the responsibilities of the WLB in Carroll’s scheme, he’d be able to roam free and make plays all over the field. Both would be fantastic additions and, in my opinion, are both worth a first round grade.
I wouldn’t agree with someone that said long passes depending on the definition but we did get burned on third and long (10+ yards) way too often. I think Greene and maybe Ogletree could help that cause out a lot and that would end a lot of drives. Of course I still want us to be more consistent against the run and for sure get more pass rush than we have been.
I’d rather have Sheldon Richardson and Jordan Reed. But whatever. Ahaha
I completely agree! Especially when we can find crazy speed later in the draft (round 4+ for Zavier Gooden). I think that adding a prospect will be a solid nfl starter to our defense won’t change how many games we win in the slightest.
Agree 100% with williambryan if TE ERTZ and DT SHORT are off the board at 25. How do they set up contingent trades, we will trade our pick x for your picks y&z IF the player we want is off the board at 25?
If we trade our 1st for an upper 2nd and a 3rd and then got Greene w/the #2 I’d feel better. Schneider seems to have a good feel getting his guys at just right time and maximizing value – picking RW at the last possible moment, trading back and still getting Irvin….I’m actually hoping Cooper falls to us in Rd. 1 (guards tend to fall) and BPA on offensive side of the ball in Rd. 2. I understand we have defensive needs but we need to help our franchise QB and start to bring down the amount of cap $$$ going towards the offense w/young cheap playmakers like our defense.
Good idea but I can’t realistically imagine a team giving up a 2nd and 3rd for a 25th pick in this draft. Not enough separation in talent to warrant that kind of a trade. IMHO the challenge for deal makers in this draft is the similarities in choices from about 12 to 60 or so. Hard to see a scenario unfold where a team feels they “must have” a guy at 25 to give up two more choices in that range or close to it. Could happen but I certainly wouldn’t expect it.
I understand/hear this is a really deep draft – but what type of value have teams in the late 1st gotten when they trade back for a team on the upper 2nd looking to jump back in for a QB?
Rob, how would you compare Bailey to Greg Jennings? To my untrained eye, they seem pretty similar. If I’m way off on that comparison, which NFL receiver comes to mind when you watch Bailey?
I think Bailey is a superior player going downfield, but they share many similar talented in terms of control, attitude, character, route running, hands.
Rob – I’ve got no problems with the Seahawks picking Greene in the 1st round. IMHO, the FO will take an even more focused approach to this draft than they have in the past. I say this because PC stressed that it’s going to be a challenge for the drafted players to even make the roster. So, I don’t think that they will draft a bunch of guys hoping that some will stick. And, I don’t think they will trade down to get more picks. Instead, I think they will target certain guys and not be particularly concerned about “over-paying” for them in terms of draft capital. They need a WLB and if Greene’s the guy, go get him.
On another note, I’m trying to understand how you feel about Tavon Austin. You seem to be luke-warm on him because you think that the Seahawks will have to “manufacture production” from him. If you mean that to get the best from him, they might have to design plays that take advantage of his strengths, what’s wrong with that?
Exactly PHIL!!! So we have to make up a few plays, WHO CARES! When Austin is scoring TD’s and breaking 30 yard gainers, NO ONE will care HOW???
He is a great change up to Lynch, will replace Tate in another year if we like, and also replaces Leon Washington.
PC/JS WANT a big possession WR. I get that. We signed a 6-5, 200 lb guy all ready. We can get a Marquise Wilson, Courtney gardner, or Kaufman in the last 3 rounds. So why not? Take Austin with our R1 pick, otherwise someone ELSE will…
He diversifies the offense, has sub 4.4 speed most likely, replace 2 players in the cap, and would be one hell of an asset to RW! Get Starks and Osi in FA. Take Austin w R1, the best TE in R2, then Jordan Hill in R3.
We would be stacked!!!
Phil- if you are relying on “manufactured production” you’re essentially saying he isn’t a receiver. You have to be able to win down the field- not just rely on end arounds and bubble screens. It’s a valid concern.
I think I like Barkley the most of this QB class right now, so him being the first QB off the board wouldn’t surprise me, but it would surprise me if Arizona grabs him. Given what Arians wants for his offense, is Barkley a good fit for it?
I don’t think there’s an obvious Arians type… after all, he’s worked with a two-time Super Bowl champion and Andrew Luck. Whether elusive mobility is something he looks for I’m not sure, but Luck was predominantly a pocket passer last year.
Arians in the past day or two I believe spoke of being a QB “tradionalist” and many are reading into that as he won’t be banging any drums for a zone/read option type of prospect.
I have him drafting Matt Barkley so I can see that.
Rob, maybe this has been addressed, if so I apologize, but it just struck me. Last year we (most of us hawk fans) were hoping desperately to land Barkley in the draft. He didn’t declare and now we have Wilson. So…. IF Barkley is there at the hawks pick this year, do they take him to make the QB room more competitive? Have a trade chip down the line? Or would they more likely pass on him or be willing to trade back?
I would only draft a QB in this draft if the trade potential down the line was immense. I don’t see that with any first round pick. If you draft Barkley at #25 you have to be hoping he’ll generate a top-ten pick one day to make it worthwhile. That won’t happen if he’s sat on the sidelines. If he’s still there at #25, the Seahawks might be possible trade down partners. But it’s not like Green Bay at #26 are much threat to snare a QB.
i understand the sentiment, but GB drafted Rodgers at #24 when they clearly didn’t have a need (with Favre)
Brett Favre was going into year 14 with the Packers and 15th year in the league… plus with the new CBA it makes trades less valuable due to not having to pay rookies so much.
Favre was coming to the end when they drafted Rodgers… not coming off his rookie season.
Rodgers sat for 3 more years behind Farve. A team rarely utilizes a 1st planning 3 years in advance. It was a case of value; nothing says that they wouldn’t perceive Barkley the same way. GB is notorious for drafting QBs and flipping them 2 or 3 years later for high picks. I wasn’t saying it is likely; only that to suggest a team sitting at 26 isn’t a threat to take a flyer on a quality qb is maybe a little stretch
No way Ogletree makes it passed Cincinnati now that they won’t resign Maluga. Seems like a classic Bengals pick to me.
PC did say he wanted to improve the pass rush and rushing is not the strength of our LB corps so I can see them picking Green. When Pete was talking about the last play of the Atlanta game he said we were not sitting back we brought the pressure but the LB (forget who it was) was close but just did not get it done.
Rob,
If a scenario were to unfold where we have our pick of DT’s, who would you pick?
Sheldon Richardson. No doubt at all.
We been fairly lucky with our later round picks for defensive players and i believe we’ve become spoiled by this. The Will spot is just as important as any other position on the defense and Khaseem Green not only has the size and speed but he has the stats of a gamer. I truly have no faith in Malcolm Smith who seems to small for the position and is continually plague with injuries. I don’t think this is a reach at pick 25 if anything it might be solidify this linebacking corp for a few years and be something we wouldn’t have to worry about for awhile. If Zavier Goodsen was to drop to pick 152 I’d grab him to compete with Smith for depth.
In the 2nd round i m looking at Travis Kelce TE. Rob said he tended to round off his routes but i believe RW would straighten that out in no time at all. From what i watch of the guy he can catch the ball and knows how to block.
Just FYI, Malcolm Smith is the same size as Greene and ran a faster 40 than Greene will.
You’re guessing on Greene’s 40.
Plus, Malcolm Smith didn’t have Greene’s laundry list of turnovers and impact plays in college.
I am guessing, true. I really doubt he runs a 4.44. I doubt he runs a 4.5. We’ll see. My point wasn’t to make Smith out to be a better player, just that physically he is equal/above Greene.
Aaron Curry was fast but his football mind and decision to react to the play wasn’t there thus his speed wasn’t really a factor. I’m have the same opinion of Smith and that is why he could not beat out a slower Leroy Hill. I truly think Green has the instincts and the mindset to react faster. The stats he’s put up prove that.
What did the stats Curry put up prove….? His NCAA accolades were even more impressive than Greene’s.
Curry wasn’t asked to do much at Wake Forest. He was allowed to read and react; very little responsibility.
But he was reckless on tape. And that translated. We don’t see that with Greene.
It looks like the New York Jets may be interested in WR-Steadman Bailey. The piece linked below includes a clip (that I haven’t seen before) of Bailey’s freshman, sophomore and junior years and includes most if not all of Bailey’s 16-TD’s during those years and of course those 16 TD’s when added to the 25-TD’s Bailey had as a senior add up to his career total of 41-TD’s, (is that fantastic production or not?).
http://thejetpress.com/2013/02/21/new-york-jets-2013-nfl-draft-profile-wr-stedman-bailey/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Hot%2BTopics
Bailey will probably move up draft boards as teams study him. He has good hands, runs routes well, and will fight for the ball. I would love it if he is chosen by the Hawks.