Will Terron Armstead find a home in round one?
Mock draft with trades
We’ve done a few of these this year already. I’ve tried to base it on some of the information that’s emerged in the last 24-48 hours. My final mock draft will be published on Wednesday, without trades.
#1 Kansas City – Luke Joeckel
#2 Jacksonville – Dion Jordan
#3 Arizona (from Oakland) – Eric Fisher
#4 Philadelphia – Lane Johnson
#5 Detroit – Ziggy Ansah
#6 Cleveland – Dee Milliner
#7 Oakland (from Arizona) – Sharrif Floyd
#8 St. Louis (from Buffalo) – Tavon Austin
#9 New York Jets – Chance Warmack
#10 Tennessee – Jonathan Cooper
#11 San Diego – Star Lotulelei
#12 Miami – D.J. Fluker
#13 Atlanta (from New York Jets) – Sheldon Richardson
#14 Carolina – D.J. Hayden
#15 New Orleans – Barkevious Mingo
#16 Buffalo (from St. Louis) – Matt Barkley
#17 San Francisco (from Pittsburgh) – Datone Jones
#18 Dallas – Sylvester Williams
#19 New York Giants – Tank Carradine
#20 Chicago – Justin Pugh
#21 Cincinnati – Kenny Vaccaro
#22 St. Louis – Kyle Long
#23 Minnesota – Xavier Rhodes
#24 Indianapolis – Desmond Trufant
#25 Minnesota – Bjoern Werner
#26 Green Bay – Tyler Eifert
#27 Houston – Justin Hunter
#28 Detroit (from Denver) – Terron Armstead
#29 San Diego (from New England) – Menelik Watson
#30 New York Jets (from Atlanta) – Geno Smith
#31 Pittsburgh (from San Francisco) – Jarvis Jones
#32 Philadelphia (from Baltimore) – Blidi Wreh-Wilson
Here are the deals…
Arizona moves from #7 to #3, trading with Oakland
The Raiders are happy to move down, while the Cardinals leapfrog Philadelphia to get Eric Fisher.
St. Louis moves from #16 to #8, trading with Buffalo
The Rams need a weapon and probably won’t get Tavon Austin at #16. The Bills appear to be settling on one of Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib. Both players should be available in the middle of the first round. A deal suits both parties.
Atlanta moves from #30 to #13, trading with the New York Jets
After dealing Darrelle Revis to the Buccs, New York immediately put the feelers out to trade down. The Falcons have been linked with a move up the board for the last week or so. I suspect they’ll consider it if Dion Jordan, Dee Milliner or Sheldon Richardson falls out of the top ten.
San Francisco moves from #31 to #17, trading with Pittsburgh
The 49ers are another team that has been linked with a possible first round trade. They have so many picks, it makes sense. Defensive line seems like the most likely target.
Detroit moves from #36 to #28, trading with Denver
The Broncos moved out of round one last year and history could repeat itself here. The Lions, having taken Ziggy Ansah in round one, move back into the first to get a left tackle.
San Diego moves from #45 to #28, trading with New England
The Chargers don’t give off an aggressive vibe, but they might have to be if they want to get a left tackle. It’s a vital need. They must do a better job protecting Philip Rivers.
Philadelphia moves from #35 to #32, trading with Baltimore
The Eagles move up, but not for a quarterback. Philly has a desperate need for a corner. They jump above Jacksonville and San Francisco to get their pick of the bunch. This could launch a run on the position at the top of round two.
Ten options at #56… according to Mike Mayock
Mike Mayock put his top-100 list on NFL.com over the last few days and I wanted to use it to look at options at #56. Of course, there’s no guarantee things will play out the way Mayock is projecting. In my mock above, one of the guys listed below is a first round pick. Mayock’s list doesn’t consider where teams are picking or need, it’s just a rankings piece.
At the same time, projecting options in the late second round is incredibly difficult because we don’t know how things are going to shake out. This at least gives us a platform. I’ve picked out ten players who are listed from #46 onwards. I used a ten pick extension, affording for the possibility of players falling. I’ve also listed four players I didn’t consider, simply because I don’t think they’ll be available at #56. Some would argue that’ll be the case for others included on the list but I did want to narrow it down.
1 – Johnthan Banks, CB Mississippi State (#48)
6-2 and 185lbs, Banks looked like a Seattle corner on tape. He’s got the height and length, but he’s also a fierce competitor. He has a nose for the ball and despite a lack of great speed (4.6’s) he’d add further quality depth to the secondary. He could also feature at safety — he was recruited to play the position before eventually making the switch to corner.
2 – Terron Armstead, T Arkansas Pine-Bluff (#61)
There’s every chance Armstead goes in the first round. If he doesn’t, it’ll be down to the level of competition he faced in college. He appears to have the skill set to play guard or tackle and you have to believe the Seahawks would want to tap into his upside. If he makes it to #56 he could be the pick. It’s a big ‘if’, though. In my mock above he’s long gone. Mayock only ranks him as a late second rounder, however.
3 – Jon Bostic, LB Florida (#65)
Bostic looked a lot more athletic than expected at the combine, running an official 4.61. Although he played inside for the Gators, he has the athletic qualities to play the WILL. Big-time leader and organiser on the field, great tackler. It’d be the kind of pick that has people surprised, but with hindsight kind of makes sense. If Mayock thinks he’s worth a grade in this range, maybe teams will agree?
4 – Khaseem Greene, LB Rutgers (#69)
A favourite for some time on this blog, no other linebacker in college football has enjoyed more personal success than Greene over the last two years. Elite production, off the charts character and the ability to force turnovers should make him a Seahawks-favourite too. Not as fast as they’d prefer, but he makes up for it in so many ways.
5 – Gavin Escobar, TE San Diego State (#76)
The only thing lacking in Escobar’s game is great speed, but he’s a giant receiver so it’s no surprise he doesn’t run in the 4.4’s. Terrific hands that absorb the football, he also runs crisp routes and finds the soft zone in coverage. Blocking can be inconsistent but he can work on that. It’s really down to whether they see past the lack of speed. Mayock offers a third round grade.
6 – William Gholston, DE Michigan State (#77)
The Seahawks seem to want length and size at defensive tackle. Gholston is 6-7 and 281lbs but could add more weight. I was never particularly enamoured with his college tape — he constantly looked like a player who could and probably should do more. Yet this would be a nice little project to see if they can turn him into a full-time interior lineman with pass-rushing upside. Maybe one for rounds 3-4 rather than at #56.
7 – Quinton Patton, WR Louisiana Tech (#78)
His attitude and personality just seems to scream, “Seahawks”. His tape is both electrifying and a little frustrating. He doesn’t make every grab, but he also makes some incredible plays and really was the defining figure in a high-production Louisiana Tech offense. There’s never anything wrong with stockpiling receivers and planning ahead. Mayock offers a conservative grade here.
8 – Christine Michael, RB Texas A&M (#87)
Recently visited with the Seahawks and seemed to enjoy himself. In fact, he virtually started campaigning on Twitter for the team to draft him. Great one-cut runner with superb balance. Looks like a NFL running back with star quality. Injury issues and falling out with the coaching staff at Texas A&M is a concern, however. Every team might think it’s a bit of a risk to take him in round two. Seattle is willing to take chances.
9 – Vance McDonald, TE Rice (#96)
Not one of my favourites. I didn’t see a natural receiver — he looked awkward catching the ball and most of his routes seemed to be wide receiver screens. Even so, he is the kind of athletic tight end I think they want to try and bring in to fit as a ‘Joker’. Whether he’s more of a third round option than a second, I’m not sure. Mayock has him as a fringe third or fourth rounder. I’d be surprised if he was taken at #56.
10 – Jesse Williams, DT Alabama (#97)
I was surprised to see Williams this low. Mayock’s given him a low third-round grade. For that reason, I kept him on this list despite a universal opinion he won’t last until even #56. He’s one-dimensional as a run stopper and he does tend to get banged up a little bit. However, Seattle first and foremost seems to want the interior lineman to play the run well. And they didn’t do that at times last year. Plugging in Williams at tackle will help.
Players not considered: Zach Ertz, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Tank Carradine, Jamar Taylor
I will review the Sio Moore tape I have this evening. I wasn’t overly impressed as a first impression. I need to take a second look.
By the way, Kam Chancellor has agreed an extension with the Seahawks:
Kam Chancellor’s new deal is a four-year extension believed to be total $28 million with $17 million guaranteed.
— Danny 710ESPNSeattle (@BrocknDanny) April 22, 2013
A press conference has been called for 2pm today. The first of several extensions that’ll be required over the coming years.
Rob,
I agree that Terron Armistead is by far the best player available at 56, according to Mayock’s chart. I also agree that he won’t be there. In addition to your points above, it’s important to remember that a top 100 list is a draft board, not a mock draft. Mayock isn’t saying that’s how the draft will fall. He’s just saying that’s his opinion of the proper ranking players listed. I seriously doubt that Armistead will be there, but what’s clear from a close examination of the list is that there will be some shocking surprise of an available player at 56. The depth of the draft emphasizes that the best strategy for Seattle to take is to sit tight and then, when they’re up, pick the best player on their board. If there’s a tremendous grouping of equivalent talents at that spot, then trade back. No matter what happens, I think they’ll find tremendous players at their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. And Seattle is in a better position than anyone else to follow that strategy: they have no gaping holes in their roster (some would say that WLB needs a high draft pick, but I think that Malcolm Smith is better than any of the rookies available to them) and their only organizational motivation is to start building the roster for 2014 and 2015, when they’ll lose quality players to free agency.
Hi Sam,
I did touch on the piece by Mayock being a rankings session rather than a mock. The good thing about using his top-100 though is it allows us to have a look at players who ‘might’ be available in that #56 range. I could pluck names out of the air and be completely wrong (or right). At least this gives us something to base the options on. But I appreciate all ten of the guys I listed could be gone… or they could all be there. Anything could happen.
FYI Rob, What I’m hearing about Arizona is that them needing a tackle is a bit of a misconception. Mike Sando and Matt Williamson have both talked about it a bit. They both viewed Guard as the much, much bigger need and that they actually have a couple of tackles who, while not yet good players, got better and better throughout the season. Not my opinion, just passing along what I’ve heard.
And I really hope Kam has agreed to an extension!
I can’t agree with that assessment. Guard is a need, no doubt. But they’ve needed a left tackle for years. They can’t rely on Levi Brown. Not in the NFC West.
I always viewed tackle is being a huge need for them as well, so I was surprised to hear them say this. Sando usually has a great understanding of the NFCW and their needs, though. I think in the realm of possibilities, they might just as well trade down to grab a a top guard instead of trading up for a tackle (assuming their top tackles are off the board).
Smoke screen?
Totally agreed.
This LT class is outstanding. It would be criminal for them to not maneuver to secure one of the big three. There is no way on earth that Levi Brown should be a LT in this league.
According to Clayton
John Clayton @ClaytonESPN 8m
Kam Chancellor received a five-year, $35 million deal in a contract extension from the Seahawks. He gets $17 million guaranteed.
If thats true that is a lot of money more than I thought it would cost to re-sign him.
I like the options, good to see a number of names being put out there.
Looks like it is actually a 4 year extension at $7 mil per year
Taking care of our own, isn’t that what Seattle preaches. I like Clemons scenario he came in here and produced, did everything we wanted and more. He’ll be on the pup list but when he’s ready. He’ll be back with a chip on his shoulder just because he’s ALL IN motto.
Clayton is mistaken. $28m on a four year extension. It’s worth five years including 2013. Worth around $5-6m per year.
I like to mention this guy was backup to Lawyer Milloy and next year he started, who else better to train a SS. Watch photo of hit on Vernon Davis, with that I rest my case.
A big hit doesn’t mask the fact that he was lost in coverage this year. He was personally responsible for the two scores against Washington, and was late getting over against roddy white in Atlanta. He Sonoma has to improve in coverage. I’m not talking a out skil set or ability. I’m talking about reading an playing his keys. This was a ton of money to pay an incomplete player.
I really think your being to harsh, 1 play does not makeup for a body of work in 2years. This is the pro’s
The vast majority of the time, Kam Chancellor is meant to defend the middle of the field and hit anyone who comes in it. I also assume he’ll blitz from time to time. He may have missed some assignments on deep balls last year in obvious situations, but need we remind you that he’s still a young player. This is stuff he’s still learning. Besides, coverage is not his primary function. There are special cases when he is asked to cover man on man, but that’s rare. If you’re going to blame a safety for getting beat on a deep ball, it’s Earl Thomas. He’s the guy who’s basically asked to cover deep middle of the field.
Does that mean we should let Earl Thomas walk in 2015? I certainly don’t think so.
Yeah, I’m not looking at “one play”. However, you highlighted the hit on Davis as the reason to resign him. I watched him all season, and even before the playoffs, I felt like he failed more than he succeeded. His tackling wasn’t good for stretches of he season, especially compared to his previous season. One play isn’t the issue. That one play you mentioned isn’t a good enough reason for that salary.
You forget that he had a fantastic season in 2011. Last year he may have dropped off a little bit, but that doesn’t suggest as much about what he can do. I don’t think it was a great season, but it wasn’t a bad season by any means. The Hawks signed Kam for what he can do, not as much what he has done. He’s a hard-hitting safety that makes teams think twice about throwing it over the middle.
He had a sophomore “slump” if you could call it that, but I don’t think his mistakes were as blunderous as you’re making them sound. We fielded the top scoring D in the league last year on top of a top ten defense.
I think that he had a good year in 2011. Anything more than that is pushing it. Assuming Kam makes $7 million per, and Earl makes something closer to $11 million per, that means Sherman is out when his deal ends. You can’t pay three members of your secondary well over $30 million per season. Someone has to go. Browner may as well pack his bags now to get it out of the way. Kam is a fan favorite because he hits like a ton of bricks. He needs to not be such a liability when he’s asked to zone up and jump the right route. One good year, one less than stellar season. That doesn’t scream extension to me. I would have waited until after 2013 and make a better assessment.
Saying he was lost in coverage is not accurate. He did play through several lingering injuries last year and he was clearly impacted by the rule changes and avoided fines at his old compensation level. This deal allows him to get back to playing correctly and not worrying about the fines.
Kam had to have surgery right after the season due to bone spurs in both ankles. That may explain his “slump.” I read he’s almost fully recovered – able to run and cut.
Sidney Rice and Zach Miller should probably pack their after the season, because Earl and Sherm are next.
Kam is a strong safety of unusual size. He is Pete’s enforcer. I guess we paid a premium for those two factors. He’s average in coverage no doubt. He’s way above average when it comes to size. He can play the position.
I love Kam and wanted him to resign for sure, but I felt he was overpaid a bit. I like the montra to take care of their own and Kam is a piece to the team I wanted to stick around, but the cost may impact other players who will end up walking.
I use RotoWorld for contract breakdowns. Here’s what it says about Kam:
Signed a five-year, $29.323 million contract. The deal contains $17 million guaranteed. Another $5.7 million is available through incentives.
That’s a $5.86 million contract. So would it be accurate to say the deal is worth $3.4 million per year if none of the statistical milestones are satisfied? (17 divided by 5…)
not realy.
The 17 million guaranteed is his signing bonus, plus, I would gues the base salary in 2013, 14, and maybe 15
According to other contracts around the nfl I would guess 2013 will be his original 1.3 plus the prorated signing bonus from this deal.
I think the signing bonus will be around 5 m spread throughout the 5 years of the total contract which is 1m per year
2013 in my 5 m signing bonus scenario the hit will be 2.3 m
2014 and 15 I would guess will be around 5-6 m cap hits (effectively gauranteed)
2016 and 17 will bump to around 7-8 m in cap (at this point he only costs 2m to cut in 16 or 1m to cut in 17 if he is not performing to standard)
They are banking on him keeping a minimum level of last years play for three years and after that he needs to be playing like 2011 or else he will be released or traded.
Again, someone will have to go, and he’s the 4th best member of that secondary. They can’t all stay with the salary cap. Sherman and earl will both be guys who command more than 10 million per season. This isn’t the guy you lock up. Enough excuses about injuries, etc. he was never good in coverage. He was merely adequate. He’s a linebacker playing string safety because of Pete’s scheme. I like Kam. I just don’t like him better than the rest if the legion.
I agree that this signing is a tad more than I thought he woudl get, and it will limit the team’s ability to lock some other players up. They all cannot be paid top dollar at their position or paid like this and stay under the cap. JS made several comments this last off season that appears to be preparing fans that some players won’t be given an extension because they cannot pay “all of their guys” top dollar.
We know Okung and Thomas are probably next. Wilson will get paid as well when his time comes. So, the CB and WR positions will probably be impacted. I only hope they continue to draft well.
I’d expect some of the DL fat will get trimmed. That’s where the age and salary currently is.
I think you’re assuming a lot about the salary cap, drewdawg. Firstly, Kam is not counting that much against the cap the next few years. The numbers are respectable, but they aren’t astounding. Secondly, the salary cap is not solely predicated upon how much the defensive backs make. There are other players to take into consideration. For example, Cliff Avril signed a two-year contract but will probably be let go next year because his cap number balloons to $7 million (he’s only making $1.5 million this year). Either that or Chris Clemons will get released. This roster is not big enough for the two of them in 2014.
There are other things to consider. Sidney Rice’s salary is probably too much to hang onto in 2014. We haven’t drafted players yet, much less have we seen our draft picks play and determine if we have potential starters in the draft. I believe in this team, and I believe in its ability to turn over the roster for players who become expendable or to expensive. Is it going to be easy to keep Thomas and Sherman with Kam on the roster? No. But it wasn’t going to be easy anyway.
And if they believe Kam Chancellor is the strong safety of the future for the Seahawks, then I think he is too.
These guys know what they’re doing and they’ll make sure the right guys are on this team for the long-term.
Hey Rob,
I was wondering what you think the odds are that with the 2nd-3rd pick they decide to select Barrett Jones. He hasn’t been talked about much in relation to the Hawks but he was the leader of the best o-line in college football in the last 5-10 years and is extremely versatile and could play multiple positions on the line. I don’t know if he would be a natural fit at right tackle, but he is 6’5 311 pounds and a very fluid player.
I think it’s unlikely. He’s a pure center for me, maybe a guard. I think he’d be a turnstile at tackle.
Before I saw Luke Marquardt I was up for Oday Aboushi but he seems to have slide a ways from a 2nd rd pick. If he fell to 158 I would grab him in a heartbeat. What do you think ROB?
I like Aboushi but NFL consensus seems to have him down as a guard only.
Tom Cable has done wonders with this offensive Line and I’ve been watching it since he came here. This guy took the Raiders to 8-8 and is the biggest FA signing we every got. He’s a coach and he’s the Assistant head coach too. Give him a Travis Kelce and a Luke Marguardt add in a Christine Michaels and I have to say OOH MY GOD!
Oday Aboushi takes franks play. Whats the worth of having 2 tackles and 1 at depth, most important positions.
I love Kam, but this looks like an overpay. What will Earl and Sherman want?!
Sherman can wait a year. We’ll need to resign Okung and Tate first.
I’m no clear on why we think we should be paying Earl and Okung more than they are currently making? They are pre rookie wage scale 1st round contracts. Okung was what, 60+mil? Not sure what Earl got.
We wont extend Earl until next year, possibly even wait till his contract is up and franchise him throughout the negotiations.
Okung still has three years on his contract. That extension will be done before the 2015 season.
The only way the Hawks keep Sherman is if he takes way less than he want in order to stay on the team. Positionaly according to the rest of the league we saw Sunday that he may cost 15+ million per year. Cant see the Hawks paying that for a player who is not a QB. I want him, but am prepared to not have him come 2015.
I’m not saying Sherman IS worth $15 million, but he may be. When you have a player who shuts down an entire side of the field, you think twice before you let him walk. It might be pre-mature to say “Let’s lock up Sherman to a $80 million contract right now,” but I think it’s more pre-mature to say definitively that he isn’t worth it. Let’s not be the guys who let him walk and then shed tears when we didn’t realize what we had.
We’ll see how he plays this year too. But based on what we’ve seen, Sherm brings possibly the biggest defensive advantage in the league, being able to shut down #1 receivers in man coverage.
yes, I think he may be worth the 15m. No, I don’t think that the Seahawks will be able to afford it with everyone else. Don’t get me wrong I hope they do, but there is a lot of hay going to be made by Thomas, Wagner, Wilson, Okung, Tate.
I am not saying I don’t want to pay Sherm, I just don’t know if I like him better than a combination of (Okung or Thomas) and (Wagner or Tate). He may cost the equivalent salary as a combination of two like these. Its hard to be good, it means tough decisions.
I would rather have them all but is it possible.
I think all this talk about letting Sherman leave is ridiculous. When compared to others at his position league wide, Sherman is currently the best player on our team, and plays one of the top 4 most important positions in the game (QB, LT, and Pass Rusher are the generally considered other 3)
Of course he will be expensive! He is one of the most valuable players in the NFL! Is anyone gonna make the argument that we should let Wilson or Okung walk when their contracts are up? They are gonna be expensive to re-sign too… There will be plenty of “fat” to trim in the years to come (Red, Rice, Giacomini, Mike Rob, Clemons) but I doubt Sherman will be part of it.
So just how good is Sherman?
As we all know, it is pretty much impossible to boil down a players on field contribution to a single number. But that’s exactly what the folks over at profootballreference.com have attempted to do with their “AV” stat, which is explained here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=8061
For those of you that put any stock into this statistic, you might find these 2012 AV numbers interesting:
Charles Tillman – 16
Aldon Smith – 15
Von Miller – 17
Patrick Willis – 15
Defensive Player of the Year – J.J. Watt – 20 (lead NFL)
RICHARD SHERMAN – 19
Unless Sherm comes out and says that he won’t play for a dime less than QB money, I have to believe that he will be a big part of John Schneider’s “Primary Model”.
I’m thinking it also don’t include cap stuff like the new CBA and these 2 guys are pro bowlers. You pay them.
I disagree with Tate I’m going to have to see more outta him this year before I decide.
I agree with Tate I love the guy but I don’t know how he will fit in the offense going forward and I don’t know how much he is worth going forward either.
Okung and Earl will probably be next. I think this signing will impact Tate and Sherm the most.
Rob,
I agree that Mayock’s top 100 list is a really nice resource. I just spent an hour reading the different nfl.com player profiles linked in there. Interesting stuff. Of course I also like it because it generally supports my Seahawks mock, or at least the first two picks – Jonathan Hankins (Mayock #58) and Jonathan Franklin (Mayock #100).
On the Chancellor extension, I’m wondering where that leaves us in terms of free agency this year. I’m not particularly knowledgeable on cap matters. Given the depressed market for defensive lineman, is it still possible that the Seahawks could sign an additional player like a Richard Seymour to a team-friendly contract? It would be nice to pick up another rotational defensive tackle who can play inside.
Unless they’re prepared to cut someone like McQuistan or Robinson, I think any further veteran signings are unlikely until nearer camp.
I don’t know, for some reason I really wanted a veteran like a Richard Seymour for a year. He’d been there and then went for money and disappeared. This guy can play anywhere and at anytime on your line and I sure he has a heart to go to another superbowl . Why not look at him, I think we could get that inspiration from him and he get’s inspired by the youth of our organization.
I watched scouted Bostic before the combine and thought his tape was awful. A 4.61 official combine forty is good, but might still be too slow for Seattle. With Winfield basically being our WLB next season (he’ll get 50-70% of the snaps), I’d be very surprised if Seattle went LB early, especially for a guy that ran in the 4.6 or 4.7 range.
Gholston didn’t show up on tape, and Michigan State fans didn’t exactly seem busted up about losing him to the NFL. Consensus seemed to be that he never lived up to his recruit ranking coming out of HS. I wouldn’t be completely surprised by the pick, but I’d hate it.
I feel like Terron Armstead, Brandon Williams and Gavin Escobar are the three most likely players we’ve talked about the least at #56.
I don’t think Seattle will make a “surprise” pick at #56, but if they did, my money would be on Luke Marquandt or Stefan Charles.
(and I wouldn’t consider Christine Michael at #56 a surprise pick).
It’s the Omen Kip. We was talking Khaseem Green at pick 25 when I said I like to see him with E.T. in a picture together. Then Christine Michaels show up in a tweet photo on this website with E.T. I ‘ll say it again we run the ball, it opens up the play action pass. If we trade out of 2 to 3 and got a 4 or 5 and we get Christine Michael in the 3rd and set all RB for next 3 years. Why Not?
Would you consider John Simon a surprise at that spot? The more tape I watch on him the more convinced I am that he is a very special and unique talent. He is a ferocious pass rusher no matter where he lines up. Call me crazy but I think he could make a good living as a pass rush specialist on the inside.! We spent a #15 pick on one last year so why not a 56 this year?
I can see them going Marquadt early and following up with Charles.
I expect it would go in that order too. Luke is generating too much interest. Charles isn’t, but if he were taken, there are other late round guys that could compare.
Of the two, Luke is the world theory prospect. That and he’d be competing with a player earning a hefty salary. Luke also appears to fit Cable’s penchant for really big/tall linemen.
The statement made by a scout on Luke, Blocks with a nasty attitude. got to love that.
Love it, however there are a ton of crappy guys who only play with a nasty attitude. Marquardt’s competition concerns me for a 2nd round LT, that would have to change positions. Swap over to the right side. If he proved to Cable he can play there though, I have no concerns.
I have him at pick 138 not 56 , He,s going to need a year of coaching, most small schools do. Why? the speed of the game at the pro level is so much faster. May not hurt the elite of college but definitely has effect on 2nd tier colleges.
I was thinking move up to middle 3rd and get Christine Michaels and make sure next pick is Luke Marquaurdt, he can take franks place for a year. I think A.K.A. Diesel (Darren Fells) will be our red zone ,6’7″ 280lbs. joker Tight End. I want Travis Kelce doing the ZBS and slipping out for 3 receptions and 55yds a game. Because I like to see that to much it won’t happen , but at this time that’s what JS/PC think of when it’s all about heart and potential.
Here is a seattle times feature on Luke Mardqurte ( probably did spell that right )
http://seattletimes.com/html/highschoolsports/2020833818_marquardt22.html
What are your thoughts on Brandon Williams?
He’s an oddball. He’s 341 pounds, slow and has short arms, yet he is a plus pass rusher and a below average run stopper. He has very good arm use and a ton of upper body strength. Very little of that 341 pounds is made up of bad weight. He’s extremely unique.
Given his size and strength, it seems reasonable to hope for improvement in his run defense, and I like him as a pass rusher that can push the pocket. His motor runs a little hot and cold, but he seems like a high character guy that would completely buy in with Pete. I’d be fine with Seattle taking him in the second, though I’d hope to get him in the 3rd.
I do have two concerns with Williams. The first is that power based pass rushers tend to translate poorly to the NFL compared to speed based rushers, and Williams doesn’t have good field speed. This is even more concerning because of my second worry- he played in Division II where raw power would dominate even more than it would in division I. Red Bryant could probably get 9 sacks a year at that level.
So no question, Williams is a gamble. That said, very few DTs fit what Seattle needs as well as Brandon Williams, because Seattle needs a guy that can plug holes in the run game while also providing at least some pass rush, and those guys aren’t terribly common in this draft.
Brandon Williams 2012 stats: 50 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL, and 5 FF. Career stats: 139 tackles, 27.0 sacks, 52.5 TFL, and 6 FF. He showed improvement throughout his college career and also was the best DT in the conference his entire season. He did dominate at the lower level. To judge him I look at the Senior Bowl. I think he held up well and has a strong base. His lack of speed is not a concern for a man of his size and strength. He needs to work on his balance and flexibility in the NFL. The nice thing is that pure power translates better than pure speed in the NFL. He is just simply stronger than a lot of his competition. Brandon Williams was also named MIAA Defensive Player of the Year. He played in the same conference as David Bass, another prospect the Seahawks may be interested in.
I don’t agree with that. There have been tons of defensive tackles who bust in the NFL because they spent their whole college careers just being physically better than the guys in front of them in college.
I didn’t say all power DT’s are great. I said power translates better, or easier than speed on the D line. Speed players have to translate their speed into power. Whereas if you are powerful already, there is nothing to translate. As far as Williams is concerned, his stats are more important than him just being physically strong. The kid can play. He got those stats with teams running away from him. What exactly don’t you agree with?
Well being powerful is nice, but if you don’t have the quickness right off the snap, you’ve lost half the battle right there. You aren’t going to beat the better guards/center with just a bullrush, which is Williams’ bread and butter and I’m not that impressed with it. To me he is just a guy. Meh. Not that impressive. No real initial quickness off the snap, no moves for pass rush and his run defense leaves much to be desired. Poor balance and struggles if he doesn’t maintain low pad level and keeps his shoulders square. He can be had in one on one in pass pro. or run blocking.
For me, Sylvester Williams would be pretty nice at 56.
Sylvester Williams won’t get out of the first round, but it would be nice.
Collin: What I see in Brandon Williams as a prospect, seems to be more than most. There are many comments on this site, that express different opinions of him, these are mine.
In response to comments above.
These are bunched together from Kip Earlywine, a much respected contributor on this site. Thanks for all your work Kip, I appreciate your opinions. I find your content a great tool for observing a lot of prospects we are able to discuss.
Kip Earlywine says: Given his size and strength, it seems reasonable to hope for improvement in his run defense, and I like him as a pass rusher that can push the pocket. His motor runs a little hot and cold, but he seems like a high character guy that would completely buy in with Pete. I’d be fine with Seattle taking him in the second, though I’d hope to get him in the 3rd.
My thoughts: I agree with all of this. He was forced to play a lot. He got tired. In a proper rotation, his energy will be more conserved. BW is very muscular and is pretty lean for a squatty 340lb. guy.
Kip Earlywine says: I do have two concerns with Williams. The first is that power based pass rushers tend to translate poorly to the NFL compared to speed based rushers, and Williams doesn’t have good field speed. This is even more concerning because of my second worry- he played in Division II where raw power would dominate even more than it would in division I. Red Bryant could probably get 9 sacks a year at that level.
My thoughts: I.M.O. pure power translates better than pure speed in the NFL. He is just simply stronger than a lot of his competition. Speed players have to translate their speed into power. Whereas if you are powerful already, there is nothing to translate in regards to playing on the line. With improved balance and technique, Williams potential is limited to dominating the middle of the D line. He is slow, but his role does not require him to be fast. Looking at his tape at the combine, of his drills, you have to take notice his feet. He is very fluid and graceful, especially for a man of his stature.
I provided Brandon Williams’s stats to display that BW had produced at the desired, “domination like” requirements. Brandon Williams 2012 stats: 50 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL, and 5 FF. Career stats: 139 tackles, 27.0 sacks, 52.5 TFL, and 6 FF. This is a HUGE plus I.M.O. when reviewing BW. These are excellent stats for a DT. He was a conference, first team selection 3 years in a row at DT. He dominated his league for three consecutive seasons, and was named 2012 Defensive Player of the Year.
Colin says: Well being powerful is nice, but if you don’t have the quickness right off the snap, you’ve lost half the battle right there. You aren’t going to beat the better guards/center with just a bullrush, which is Williams’ bread and butter and I’m not that impressed with it. To me he is just a guy. Meh. Not that impressive. No real initial quickness off the snap, no moves for pass rush and his run defense leaves much to be desired.
My thoughts: He actually uses the quite a few moves, spin move, rip, swim, rush and dip, lots of different combos he displayed during the week at the Senior bowl. His off the snap quickness is pretty solid. He lacks a little consistency at times, but is able to do well getting off the ball.
Colin says: Poor balance and struggles if he doesn’t maintain low pad level and keeps his shoulders square. He can be had in one on one in pass pro. or run blocking.
My thoughts: These are things that are mainly technique flaws. He can learn how to keep pad level down and his shoulders square with our great coaching. He is very good in creating penetration at the point of attack. I don’t see him getting owned on tape consistently at all. His stats support this. His biggest flaw, is his overall speed. However, he held up well vs. double teams defending the run. Not sure if you have watched this tape yet. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEJeUILylZQ It displays his will to compete. Also notice the rarity of someone running by him. He clogs everything up in the middle.
I.M.O. BW fits the requirements of a “Seahawky pick”. He has unique talents, has a great work ethic on the field and in the weight room, was very productive in college, and has a chip, on his very large shoulder. He is a, coachable and hard working guy, who deserves a shot. I am of the hoping we get the opportunity to select him in the 3rd round.
Who to you think are the best run defending defensive lineman?
Who to you think are the best run defending defensive lineman that should be available?
I watched Bostic play for four years. He’s the real deal
For the last couple of months, I have been hopeful that Brandon Williams might be our guy to line up next to Mebane, clog running lanes and take advantage of all the double teams BM draws. The other day I re-watched some video and locked onto Kwame Geathers. At 6’6″ 340, he definitely has the length we like. Check out his tape vs Alabama’s mighty OL. He looks like a monster in the trenches and reroutes and number of running plays. On one play Lacy spins out of the pile and races down the sideline. Amazingly KG hung with him for 30 yards until teammates ran lacy out of bounds. What do you guys think of Kwame Geathers as a 3rd or 4th round prospect?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1ZrFOxQXz0
I think he will be available later.
Just a random thought. I think these difffeernt scenarios are good and fun and anything is possible but I dont see how DT isnt the pick at 56 considering the glaring sinkhole at the 3 tech. Can we afford to go into the season with a project late round DT competing with Mcdonald for the start? All you bloggers predicting TE’s Wr’s RB’s, ect at 56 or 87are not paying attention to the Hawks needs. I keep hearing we have the Luxury to pick any position. Bottom line as it stands today we dont posses a 3 tech. Avril, 3 tech?, Mebane, Bryant. Unless we are planing to use Bennett as our 3 tech, I dont see how we dont draft a DT at 56.
I can’t speak for “all us bloggers” but what I’m detecting here is a lack of DT options at #56. I spent an entire regular season arguing the teams greatest need was an interior pass rusher. We discussed in several articles why Sheldon Richardson would be the ideal pick for this team.
But just because the team has a need, that doesn’t mean you can necessarily fit a player into that hole at #56. The Seahawks needed a quarterback going into the last three drafts. Just because that need existed, they didn’t just go out and take any old QB with their first pick in 2010, 2011 or 2012. They waited for the right fit. And that fit came in the third round last year.
When I look at the options for defensive tackle at #56, I struggle to see a player that fits what the Seahawks appear to be looking for at the position. In the piece here I’ve still identified two potential DT prospects. If you want me to just write down the names of ten defensive tackles, that would be a pointless article.
I actually had them taking a defensive tackle in round four of my seven-round projection last week. That might be the way it goes down. It doesn’t mean that player can’t or won’t become an immediate, effective starter. We’ve seen in the past how this front office can turn mid or late round picks into immediate contributors. So there really is no need to narrow down the search at #56 to one position.
I wasnt directly speaking about you. You brought up some good points. Hopefully someone will step up thats not on everyones radar. Im sure the Office has something up their sleeve.
The Dts do start to look a lil unimpressive late 2nd RD, lol. DT and WLB seem unsettled. Who will be the starters?
It’s hard to say who will be the starters until we’ve been through the draft. It wouldn’t surprise me if they picked up a DT in round four and a LB in round five and both started. It also wouldn’t surprise me if they addressed both needs on day two. But they won’t feel handcuffed to a need area if the value isn’t there.
I count four guys who could play the 3-tech:
McDaniel
Scruggs
Howard
McDonald
In a pinch, or scheme variation, Bryant or Mebane could see time there. I do agree that we need an additional 1\3-tech, but the situation is not as bad as OT where our backup is Mike Person (who!).
Sorry, I forgot Bennett, so 5+ guys on the roster could see time at the 3-tech.
He seems kinda light for DT. I
Bennett is bigger than Jason Jones, the guy he replaced. Bennett was also outstanding against the run last season.
That said, I think Bennett’s long term role (if he’s here more than one year) should be at the 5-tech. He’s just so good there, vastly superior to Red Bryant, IMO.
Hey don’t forget we got T.J. McDaniels he was rotating with Randy Starks, good luck being a starter in Miami. I think this guy easily fills Alan Branch’s role better here.
T.J. McDaniels
2012 Season 11T, 0.5 sacks
Really?
yeah really. Not to be snark or anything, but comparing him to Branch on a play by play basis over 3 years, I dont see much of a loss from what we have had starting. He does more on a per play basis in 3 years than Branch did.
Not saying we should settle at that for our starter though. But to worry about spending our highest pick on a DT because of the personel we have is a little panicky.
You sound like your panicing.
With the moves they made, I think they’re looking less at pass rushing DTs and more at run stuffing DTs. At the end of the day Branch was a run stuffer, they were a top 5 defense, number one scoring, with three run stuffers along the line. Their defense had trouble when they were unable to stop the run. If they’re looking to replace Branch, they may not be looking at a traditional 3-tech. They may be looking for a Branch replacement, which means another run stuffer with moderate pass rush skills. Pete’s motto, as with most defensive coaches, is you gotta stop the run first. I’m expecting a big body DT with at least one of the second day picks. We don’t pick high enough to get one of the better three tech candidates in this draft. I’m sure they made that calculation when they decided to trade their first round pick away. I bet they also calculated they would have a shot at quite a few big body DTs in day 2.
Scruggs baby… Scruggs…
Kam extension presser link:
http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/videos/Kam-Chancellor-Contract-Extension-Press-Conference/e64e7dc4-cb97-459f-9a16-dfd9a22ee3ab
thank god now I can drop my SS guy that needed a year or 2 training.
It seems the Kam extension makes drafting a safety very undesirable for us anywhere but late in the draft. The commotion about the Hawks drafting one seemed to stem from Chancellor’s pending contract, but now that it’s solidified, that’s another “need” the Seahawks can eliminate from their list, albeit a longer-term need.
I wouldn’t necessarily say that’s true. The need at safety is more to have a true backups to Kam and Earl. Jeron Johnson looks like a player but he’s not the same style as Kam, and really who else on this earth can play the way that Earl does. Pete also loves to use DBs on special teams. I could see them picking up a speedy Shamarko Thomas type of player, and maybe another big “bandit” safety. I personally don’t care for Winston Guy but I’m also not a professional scout.
Silly Question I know the first day of the Draft is Thursday but what are the other days ?
Thursday – Round 1
Friday – Rounds 2/3
Saturday – Rounds 4-7
Couldn’t we draft christine michael past the second round? Is there a particular concern he won’t be there in the third round, if not later?
It’s a hard one to judge. On talent alone he could be an early second rounder. The character baggage and injury history could push him down the draft. The teams will know what kind of range he has. It’ll be interesting for us fans to see where he actually goes. But I wouldn’t rule out the second round.
It’s possible but he won’t there far in the 3rd round. If the 2 guys I ‘m thinking of aren’t there they push back for another pick. If that doesn’t happen I’d take him at 56 anyways. Rb has aways been lowballed in the draft. 1 think most people don’t understand is Seattles picking late in the rounds and makes a 56 more like an Early 3rd and 127 an early 5th.
As Rob said, GMs know where Michael’s range is, but as fans on the outside we can only speculate. The latest info from Tony Pauline paints Christine Michael as a 2nd round candidate, meaning he’ll probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round somewhere.
Them I take Christine Michaels at 56 Done and I said it. I truly believe if he’s at 56 they take him.
As I said before at 56 its like a top 3rd pick. It seems to me that a good running back due to value at the position is a 2nd can be a 1st round talent. No matter what ya say won’t change my mind on the running opening up the play action pass. I watch Kurt Warner 2nd year do a sweep and his ACL gave out and without the depth we slip from contention to playoff hopeful.
As much as I love jumping on bandwagons, I have watched every piece of tape I can get my hands on (which isnt much), but I just cant put Michael ahead of Ball on my board. Nothing against Michael, I will be thrilled to have him if we get him… I just like Ball’s skillset more. Ball also played his best year of football with a certain QB we all know and love. Who knows if Wilson is putting Ball’s name in John Schneider’s ear come Friday night?
If by some chance we do not draft a RB this year, it might have to be looked at early on in 2014. Amongst my football watching I have decided I REALLY REALLY REALLY like Carlos Hyde, RB/Ohio St. Any future draft thinkers have thoughts on Hyde as an option for us next year? From I can see, his style seems well suited for our team.
I think Ball’s biggest issue has to be the number of miles on those legs already…
After reading your post I watched the highlight tape of Hyde, and he definitely fits our style. He seems like he comes from the mold of a Marshawn Lynch, although I feel like Marshawn was much more dynamic coming out of college. Seems to have a good cutback ability. Just based on what I’ve seen from Michael and the little I’ve seen from Hyde, I prefer Michael. I just think he’s a very unique runningback. I think in two or three years he will be an elite runningback and so the Hawks may be silly to pass up on him if they get the chance.
Runningback is one of those positions we shouldn’t take for granted. We may need one sooner rather than later, especially if Marshawn continues to have back issues.
Per Tony Pauline, the Seahawks have shown interest in Colorado TE Nick Kasa. I’ll add him to my draft visit writeup series in the next couple days.
I saw a tweet that said the Seahawks would be interested in Kasa in the fourth round. How do they know this?
Rob, I’ve seen a lot of articles that talked about the Seahawks drafting players to replace its high priced free agents in Zach Miller and Sidney Rice. In part it makes sense because the team can clear money off the books by doing this, but the problem is, is that IMO Miller and Rice earned their contracts through their play. Do you think that there is a push to replace high priced contracts through the draft, or do you think that the draft strategy is purely based on need and talent?
Clayton, the speculation I have seen has mainly talked about the need to plan ahead to replace Rice and Miller as their contracts expire, because there won’t be cap room to both re-sign them and keep the core younger players as well. The draft picks would therefore need to be able to step in a couple of years down the road and play at a comparable level so the team performance doesn’t drop off.
I don’ see Miller is going anywhere unless he gets injured again. the salary he has drops from 4 to 2 million over the next couple of years. If the gets injured for 3rd year in a roll we might look elsewhere.
MadMark, not sure where you got your numbers, but Millers cap hit is 11M this year, 7M in 2014 and 6M in 2015. I think you must have been looking at base salary which doesn’t mean much except what the players weekly pay cheque looks like, but no relevance on actual Cap space.
Rice’s production hasn’t been in line with his contract. He’s only had one healthy year. I think this is a prove it year for Rice. Miller on the other hand has been extremely solid and seems like a cornerstone player. I see Rice as gone next year unless he has an amazing season, but I think Miller will stay.
It’s a good point you raise. It’s one thing to plan ahead, but you aren’t cutting guys who deliver on their salary. I suppose you could argue there’s very little chance Sidney Rice will justify $10m per year for the next three years unless he starts stacking up 1200 yards and a few more scores. That might be impossible in this offense.
I suspect it’s a loose strategy. Initially it’s about upgrading the roster, pure and simple. Then it’s about the talent available. And if you can plan ahead to make it easier to re-sign a Russell Wilson on Richard Sherman, even better.
Rob
Do you think they prorate the production of our receivers for our offense? I think Rice could and would put up better numbers in a more passing oriented offense were he would get more opportunities, but since we a run first he won’t get as many chances thus he will put up low numbers. Do you think he is still worth the dollars considering the numbers he puts up relative to the chances he receives? I mean his numbers are average but I don’t think an average receiver could put this numbers up in the exact same role as Rice.
If that thinking is correct wont it always look like we are paying average receivers more then they are worth because they don’t have lots of opportunities ?
It’s an excellent point, Nolan, and something they may well consider. I guess if they didn’t feel it was important to bring in the talent even if the production will be limited, they wouldn’t be paying Rice, Miller and Harvin what they are.
Of these ten, I would go: 1) Armstead, 2) Williams, 3) Patton and 4) Greene. Armstead will of course be long gone….I have never seen a 310# guy run so fast and fluid. Williams will also most certainly be gone….don’t know what Mayock is smoking. Williams is 320#, quick, nasty and gives maximum effort. He would be one of the strongest DTs in the league, must be double-teamed, and shuts down the run. Patton, though not filling a need this year, is an outstanding talent and might have the highest grade on John’s board. He might also be the punt returner they need, with Leon gone. Harvin does not return punts and Golden Tate muffs too many catches. Greene would be an instant starter at a reduced Will position, with Winfield taking about 70% of the snaps, but Greene would also be very strong at special teams.
The heart still wants what the heart wants…
I know he is not ready for it etc., I know he need lots of work to become a DT…but…I gave up on him long ago…but…
Is there a chance Margus Hunt is there and we do pick him ?
My mind tells me – no Hunt, no Swope…but the heart insists.
Hunt could be there. His stock is really hard to gauge. On one hand he is a ridiculous athlete for his size. On the other, he is still raw and inexperienced and is already 26 years old. He could go anywhere from the late first round to the end of the 4th. My gut tells me he goes mid to late 2nd. I don’t personally want him to be our pick but I think there’s a relatively good chance he’s still on the board.
If the Hawks drafted Margus Hunt I would be happy. Because I don’t think this team would take a flier on Margus if they didn’t think there was a good chance he would grow into a sack machine.
I think the Hawks wouldn’t hesitate in pulling the trigger on Hunt at #56. I just hope he doesn’t go o SF, scarry….
Margus Hunt at 56 if he’s available.
Hunt is such a wildcard. It would be different if he were 22-23. A player that old has to almost yield immediate dividends. He’d be an interesting piece on passing downs with Bennett inside and avril, Irvin, and Clemons outside.