I’m doing things differently this year.
For the last 48 hours I’ve tried to identify sources that I would say are trusted in the media and draft world. From there, I’ve tried to piece together the various reports like a puzzle. I’m hoping if nothing else this will help me explain my thought process.
I will be sending this projection to the Huddle Report for scoring.
Before revealing the mock, here are some of the things I’ve considered:
— Mike Florio, despite arguing for multiple weeks that the Seahawks wouldn’t take a quarterback at #5, suddenly wrote an article noting, “there’s chatter in league circles that the Seahawks could take Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson with the fifth overall pick in the draft.”
— Todd McShay then wrote a piece previewing the draft. For the Seahawks, he wrote, “I have a strong sense Seattle won’t leave Round 1 without a quarterback. The more I talk to execs, scouts, coaches and agents, the more I think the Seahawks could be targeting Stroud or even Florida’s Anthony Richardson at this spot, depending on who is there. Stroud is 21 years old and Richardson is 20, and the idea is either could sit behind Geno Smith in the short term and develop into the answer for the long term.”
— Jeff Darlington and Adam Schefter both left the door open for a quarterback pick for Seattle in round one, during a segment today.
— Buzz started to materialise about Richardson being a legit option for the Seahawks. However, there were also as many (if not more) voices pointing to a match between Seattle and Jalen Carter. Albert Breer reported, “I’ve heard that Pete Carroll loves the Georgia game-wrecker, and that the Seahawks had a good 30 visit with him.” Breer, like many others, has since gone on to mock Carter to Seattle.
— Peter Schrager reported he was hearing Carter wouldn’t get out of the top-six. That clearly put Seattle and Detroit on the minds of draft prognosticators.
— However, several other voices have pushed back. Daniel Jeremiah has noted in multiple media appearances that teams have told him they think the Seahawks would take Carter. He’s also heard teams say they don’t expect Seattle to make the pick, because of the Malik McDowell experience. So mixed opinions in the league.
— McShay, in his ESPN piece, added, “Multiple sources have told me Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter isn’t expected be the pick (for Seattle).”
— Today, Michael Lombardi added his voice to those saying Carter to the Seahawks is unlikely. He said in this article, “If they stay (at #5), it doesn’t sound like they will take Jalen Carter from Georgia.”
— Even Breer, who has reported Carroll’s admiration for Carter, couches everything with a caveat. When he initially spoke about Carroll and Carter, he added, “That said, Seattle GM John Schneider has had his ups and downs with such gambles in the past, and it’s fair to wonder if his experience with Malik McDowell a few years back would have a material effect on whether or not he’d spend the fifth pick on someone with Carter’s file.” He then went on to say, “I also wouldn’t rule out Richardson; Schneider and Carroll really liked Josh Allen a few years ago, and there are some parallels with this one, including the fact that they wouldn’t have to rush him out onto the field as a rookie.” I think it’s fair to suggest Breer is hearing different things from different sources (like Jeremiah) and is cleverly playing it down the middle.
— Tony Pauline is reporting today that the Eagles are pushing to trade up from #10 with the intention of drafting a pass rusher.
— Adam Schefter is reporting the Texans are interested in moving off the #12 pick.
So what have I taken out of this for the mock?
I think if the Seahawks are eager to move down, as suggested by Lombardi, it’s because of the following:
1. Will Anderson isn’t likely to make it to #5
2. The foot injury to Tyree Wilson might be putting teams off
3. I don’t think the Seahawks will draft Jalen Carter
It’s also possible that, as many have been discussing, the league isn’t that high on the quarterbacks. So even if Seattle’s interest in Richardson is legit, it’s plausible they either don’t see the value taking him at #5 or they think they can drop down a few spots and still land him (or C.J. Stroud).
Essentially, why not have free extra picks if you can?
Therefore, I’ve tied in Pauline’s report on Philly’s interest in moving up with the scenario I’m painting here, to have the Eagles jumping above Detroit to select Jalen Carter. That would also tick off Peter Schrager’s assertion that Carter won’t get out of the top-six and Lombardi’s take on Seattle’s trade-down interest.
The Seahawks move down, presumably with sufficient intel that they can still land the player they are reportedly eyeing.
There were a couple of other thoughts that popped into my head as I was preparing this mock. If no suitable trade offer emerges, the Seahawks possibly just stick and pick the same player at #5. However — if the quarterbacks really do fall (and I’ve seen at least a couple of people discussing a fall for Anthony Richardson into the teens) — I wonder if they’d take the best defensive player remaining on their board at #5 (Devon Witherspoon? Tyree Wilson?) before trading up from #20 if the opportunity emerged to get the quarterback? That would fit into Todd McShay’s line of, “I have a strong sense Seattle won’t leave Round 1 without a quarterback.” There’s also been relevant chatter about the New York Jets at #15 being prepared to drop down.
Could the Seahawks actually be in a position to trade up from #20 to get Richardson? Could they do a classic ‘trade down from #5’ (and go BPA) then ‘trade up from #20’ (and select a QB)?
Schefter’s report on the Texans has also inspired me to drop Houston out of the #12 spot, so a team can come up and get Tyree Wilson (who reportedly is off some board due to the foot issue).
Anyway — enough explaining. Here’s the mock.
Final 2023 mock draft
#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Young is all but confirmed as the top pick at this stage.
#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I was told by a strong source in the league weeks ago that Anderson would be ‘hands down’ the top defender taken. I’m sticking with that.
#3 Arizona — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
This has emerged as a late rumour. For a new GM hoping to just make a solid, safe pick — it makes sense. Tyree Wilson has an injury issue, Jalen Carter has numerous character flags.
#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
I think Levis has been Chris Ballard’s target all along.
#5 Philadelphia (v/SEA, DEN) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I think Philly is the most likely spot for Carter and they trade up here, jumping Detroit.
#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Dan Campbell takes the most violent player in the draft.
#7 Las Vegas — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
Reportedly they are very keen to add talent at cornerback.
#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Terry Fontenot is a big BPA guy and on a lot of boards, Robinson is going to be among the top 2-3 players in the entire class.
#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
He’s very explosive and a safe pick. The Head Coach used to be in Indy, who once took Quenton Nelson in the top-10.
#10 Seattle (v/PHI, NO) — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
The Seahawks move down, gaining a second (#62) and third (#92) round pick in the process (while also giving Philadelphia their sixth rounder at #198). Richardson has the physical talent Carroll and Schneider love to invest in.
#11 Tennessee — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
I don’t really know how it’s come to this but I think whoever gets Stroud will be counting their blessings.
#12 New England (v/HOU, CLE) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
The Patriots move up to secure Wilson, leaning on old friends in the Houston front office. It’s a cheap deal, costing two fourth rounders (#117 & #135).
#13 Green Bay — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
A perfect match.
#14 Houston (v/NE) — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
After moving back a couple of spots, the Texans continue to reinforce their defensive line.
#15 NY Jets — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
Joe Douglas loves explosive linemen.
#16 Washington — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
His physical profile should secure a top-20 placing.
#17 Pittsburgh — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
I think he’s the best offensive tackle in the draft.
#18 Detroit — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
A great pro-day workout probably rescues his stock.
#19 Tampa Bay — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I think he’s better than some of the bigger name tackles.
#20 Buffalo (v/SEA) — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
I think the lack of speed keeps him in the 20’s and the Bills — reportedly keen on being aggressive — trade above some other suitors to land him. The Bills give the Seahawks a third rounder (#91).
#21 Miami — forfeited
Tut tut.
#22 LA Chargers — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
The injury situation could keep him on the board longer than this.
#23 Baltimore — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
I’m not sure how well this would go down in Pittsburgh.
#24 Minnesota — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
There was a whisper that the Rams like Flowers a lot and the Vikings run the same offense.
#25 Jacksonville — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
They need more pass rush and I think someone will take a chance on Kancey in this range.
#26 New York Giants — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
They are one of a handful of teams who might be eyeing JMS — including the Seahawks.
#27 Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jerry Jones wants an explosive offense and Gibbs can help get them there.
#28 Seattle (v/BUF) — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
After trading down eight spots, the Seahawks add a pass rusher who could be their answer to Brian Burns. He trained with Seattle’s new pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan earlier this year before he took the Seahawks’ gig and he had a late official-30 visit.
#29 Cincinnati — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
There’s a lot of buzz around Forbes going in this range.
#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
Nose tackle is a need and Smith is going to go between #30-40 I think.
#31 Philadelphia — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
I find it really hard to place Smith. If they take Jalen Carter in the top-10 it might be a good idea to bring in another person he’s familiar with who we know is of high character.
#32 Houston (v/KC) — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
One last trade. The Texans move into the final pick of round one to select Hendon Hooker, securing a fifth year option on the quarterback. It costs them a fifth rounder (#161).
Thoughts on Seattle’s picks
I am convinced they’d love Will Anderson to last to #5. The production, the A+ character, the positional need. He ticks every box they are looking for. With him off the board, I do think their defensive options are limited unless they clear Tyree Wilson medically.
Remember — they traded up for Darrell Taylor in 2020 after he’d not done any work-outs pre-draft due to injury. He didn’t play a snap that year. The Malik McDowell experience isn’t the only lesson they’ll be trying to learn from and they might be more cautious on medical issues.
I do think there’s a bit of magic about Richardson that’ll be right up Carroll and Schneider’s street. The incredible physical tools, the charisma, the star potential. They put an ‘out’ in Geno Smith’s contract for a reason and it screams ‘bridge quarterback’. The Seahawks should be praised for creating the ideal situation at the position. They can start with Geno in 2023 and maybe 2024, then pass the torch with a well prepared long-term replacement. I struggle to see why people find that so disagreeable. Quarterback is still the most important position in the NFL.
As Tony Pauline told me at the weekend — this would be an ideal situation for Richardson. He added that Geno Smith would be the perfect mentor. I’d recommend checking out Tony’s view on that topic.
One of the other things I’ve struggled with is the notion that #5 (or in this case, #10) has to be spent on defense otherwise it’s a wasted opportunity to improve a struggling unit. I think there are excellent defenders set to be available in the #20-30 range.
Will McDonald, who I have them taking, looks like Brian Burns. I think he can have that kind of impact. His bend around the arc is the best I’ve seen in 15 years of writing this blog. He’s also gritty, competitive, highly athletic and ready to play. He screams ‘Seahawks’. He’s worked with pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan so they have a relationship already. I think as a rookie he can tally up the sacks as an impact rusher.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that McDonald and Will Anderson visited Seattle on the same day for official-30 visits. This feels like an either/or type situation. One or the other. If Anderson isn’t there at #5, pivot to McDonald.
Even if it’s not McDonald — it’s possible Myles Murphy and Lukas Van Ness last to #20. Adetomiwa Adebawore is a tremendous prospect. I have Calijah Kancey and Mazi Smith going in the late first and there are plenty of options in round two. I have total confidence that Seattle can rapidly improve its defense even if it doesn’t take a high-stakes gamble on Jalen Carter. Let’s also not fall into the trap of assuming Carter’s success. I’m sure we can all easily imagine a scenario where he flames out of the league and some of the names I listed above have great careers.
After all, only four of PFF’s top-20 rated interior defensive lineman in 2022 were drafted in the top-10. Chris Jones, Jeffery Simmons, Calais Campbell, Jonathan Allen, Cameron Heyward — they were all selected in a range Seattle is slated to pick this year. The NFL’s sack leaders are not littered with top-10 picks either. It’s about finding the good players, regardless of range, not just assuming anyone taken early is a ‘blue-chip’ player. Even when they have the talent, you have to work to deliver on your potential. That is the concern with Carter. He’s unquestionably gifted but he appears to have the opposite approach to Aaron Donald — who is both an incredible player and one of the hardest and most committed defensive linemen in the league.
What about the rest of Seattle’s picks?
I’m not sure how realistic trading down twice is in this particular draft. Let’s roll with it anyway. I have the Seahawks adding #62, #91 and #92 to go with #37, #52 and #83. That means six picks on day two.
They could use that stock to be aggressive. They traded up on day two in the past for Jarran Reed, D.K. Metcalf, Darrell Taylor and Tyler Lockett. It wouldn’t be a surprise in this scenario if they tried to move ahead of Arizona at #35 to get Joe Tippmann the Wisconsin center. They could also look to move up from #52 where the value tends to dip a bit. What if Adetomiwa Adebawore lasts into range for a move up? Or someone like Keion White or Keeanu Benton? Perhaps they see a BPA target at tight end or cornerback? Do they like Josh Downs and Jonathan Mingo as much as I do? I suspect they’re going to be keen to add serious depth and competition at guard, too.
Alternatively, you have six picks to pad out your roster. With no cap space remaining that could be crucial. You’d have ample stock to fill holes, creating a young, hungry roster presumably full of gritty players — given the often talked about re-emphasis on character and ‘what is a Seahawk’.
The chances are they won’t be able to trade down from #5 but could be able to from #20. They’d still have a lot of stock to get done what they needed to get done.
And on that note, roll on tomorrow.
Two quick videos to check out. Firstly, here’s my latest appearance on VSiN. Please take the time to check it out:
Here’s a live stream I conducted with Robbie discussing my final mock draft:
I’d also like to take this chance to thank the community. I can’t believe that we’re a few days away from essentially putting a bow on the Russell Wilson trade. It was a huge moment in Seahawks history and since it was announced, I’ve gone into overdrive trying to cover this crucial period. Your words of support and encouragement have meant so much, especially in this weirdly toxic time that we live in where everyone is constantly trying to tear each other down.
If you’ve enjoyed the blog this draft season and want to support the site via Patreon — (click here)
Tomorrow I will be posting my final horizontal board before the draft. I will be hosting a live blog throughout the three days — while offering instant video reaction on my YouTube channel. There will also be live streams at the end of each day and more.
Love the mock and really appreciate all of your hard work!
Ive done some mocks with a similar dream type scenario of a minor trade back from 5 and a trade back from 20, Snagging AR15 and then typically Ade Ade, Mazi Smith, Joe Tippman and Julius brents.
If we flowed with the draft and got a 4-6 blue chippers O boy the future is bright.
DAMN, that’s a pro’s pro mock Rob – great work.
Agreed. Thank you so much, Rob for the weeks of incredible content.
I’m sure you’re exhausted at having to constantly debunk all the Jalen Carter wishcasting. I hope you’re right!
I love this, but I would choose C J. Thank you for all you have done in this offseason Rob, tomorrow we will be on Youtube reacting to our selections
BTW:
I don’t understand those who say wait for a QB next year the vast majority only know Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, probably the fans only like those two, my question is, do you think you will have a higher pick than RAMS ? ARIZONA? Rams will surely look for a QB next year, Cardinals will not trade with Seattle, if Texans do not select a QB this year then they will go for a QB next year and probably also have a higher pick than Seattle ….. Falcons ? they probably also have higher picks than Seattle and if they don’t pick QB this year then they won’t trade with us, so what are we talking about QB next year ? Has anyone thought about that ? What if TITANS don’t pick QB this year ? Surely they will also have a higher pick than Seattle, the Commanders also the same story, if we are a playoff team next season and assuming we could trade up to pick 1 or 2 in the 2024 draft, that would cost us 1st and 2nd picks probably until 2027 lol
These are the people who always take door #3 on fame shows, or what is in the mystery box.
Okay, but you should switch doors if the host offers it. That actually increases the odds. It’s the Monty Hall problem.
Haahahahahaha
Hell yea! When I learned about this… It blew my mind and then I thought – it’s so simple. Hahaha
Great Work Rob, I still think its too risky to trade down that far and assume Richardson will be there. I would rather just stay at 5 and take Richardson and do the move down at 20 and get Will McDonald.
That was my first reaction as well, then I took a look. The drop from 5 to 10 is OK because there are two QBs and 3-4 other players they rate high with at least one of those available at ten.
Here they get AR. Maybe it is CJ, Bijan, Mayer, etc. Any of the players taken in this mock from 6-9 or the two DE taken just after. Any players there you do not want the Seahawks to draft?
Another scenario that could be good is if the guy the Seahawks want is gone at ten then can you trade down again? Could they get a 1st next year and another pick before 75 or so?
BTW, I love how Rob has gone with the trade down from #5 in his official Mock while automatically shutting down any suggestion of such for the last few months. It demonstrates his passion in the moment and willingness to consider everything each time he reconsiders. Way to go Rob!
Rob, you are the absolute best. Thank you for all you do for the 12’s.
Yeah. I don’t trust the raiders or falcons to not take a QB.
Seems wishful thinking that the Raiders wouldn’t take Stroud, doesn’t it?
The Raiders are built for today. They’ve thrown a ton of money at stars and really expected to compete in the west last year. It’s hard for me to imagine a team that gave all that money to Adams to win now, a team that just franchise tagged an RB…would decide to use a pick on a QB when they just spent all that money getting Jimmy G
Agree about not trading down. Stay at 5 and take a defensive player, then take Richardson at 20 if they so madly in love with his potential.
Absolutely love this draft. Dream scenario for the Hawks and the rationale for each teams pick makes a ton of sense.
I would be estatic with those two picks in Rd 1 even if they are not able to trade down twice but it would be awesome if they could. Day 2 would be epic.
If we trade with PHI you’re taking a massive risk of TB,TEN, or HOU coming up and grabbing CJ or AR (no thanks to helplessly watching CHI trade out to a QB needy team) , not to mention LV or ATL taking the gift horse just sent to them by taking CJ or AR with their pick. I’d rather take either CJ or AR rather than risk it for pick 62 and causing me to experience the longest 75 minutes of my life waiting for the 10th pick.
Love the blog hate the trade just get your QBOTF while you can.
Can’t wait for tomorrow.
Not sure I understand the trade either. Why not ask for pick 10 and 30 from the eagles? If the compensation doesn’t match then I would throw in a 3rd or 4th, moving up requires teams to pay a price.
Also, fully agree with Keffen here if qbotf is the target why risk it, when titans/commanders or Green Bay can jump in at 7/8?
Honestly if ATL doesn’t take bijan, then he will fall to teens. Same would apply for the bears pick of Skoronski, a guard in top 10 is rich, but at 11/12 or 13 it’s reasonable and they accumalate more assets from titans/commanders/greenbay
This trade is trying to be too cute, just stay where you are and select the player you want especially if it comes to securing a qbotf
Weird to think we could trade down and still get Richardson.
I’d be cursing every single pick after that trade until the pick came in.
This draft has that ‘right’ feel about it.
Excited to see the final big board, I’ve got my group of 20-some players I’m hoping for, curious to see if any make it (I know Richardson and McDonald will)
Great work Rob! Just wondering, did the chat with Jeff Simmons fall through?
Yes
But going live in 10 mins with Robbie
So Jeff chickened out?!
I called a rain check on it, my call
That’s good to hear! He’s the only one on the Hawkblogger crew that seems to be rational and actually open to discussion. Even if I don’t agree with his takes on things.
Homerun of a mock, Rob. Well reasoned. If we come out of the first with Richardson and McDonald AND three additional day 2 picks, I will have to light my pants on fire.
Thanks for inserting some quality analysis into the dreadful run up to this draft. Tommorrow may be joy or sorrow, but no matter what, it will be fascinating.
If Seattle does trade down, I really hope Richardson or Stroud are still there. I understand your logic but if I’m John, I just pick my guy at 5 and don’t risk it.
In your scenario, I get that Atlanta believes in BPA but they ALSO need a QBoTF, I can see them going Stroud at 8 rather than Bijan. And yes, I get that Bijan would be indeed the BPA but CJ is up there and they do badly need a QB.
Don’t be surprised if Detroit goes QB. They are very similar to Seattle – non-elite starter who they aren’t tied to long term.
And as always Rob, thanks for all your work and all the great content.
Thanks for everything this season Rob! A little fun if anyone is bored…
Draft Eve prediction game:
1. Will there be more WR or TE’s taken in Rd 1?
2. How many OT’s will go in Rd 1?
3. How many CB’s in Rd 1?
4. What is the lowest pick that a top 4 QB lands?
5. What pick will Jalen Carter go?
———-
1st rounders or not?
6. Drew Sanders (LB-Arkansas)
7. Quentin Johnson (WR-TCU)
8. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB-Bama)
9. Hendon Hooker (QB-TEN)
10. Calijah Kancey (DT-Pitt)
1. Same -2
2. 5 Tackles
3. 6 CB’s
4. 11th
5. 10th
6. No
7. No
8. Yes
9. Yes
10. No
1. 3WR/2TE
2. 4 (if you count Skoronski as Tackle)
3. 4
4. 12
5. 15
6. No. But he should be
7. No
8. Yes
9. No
10. Yes
Oh man. If this were to come true, I’d be jumping for joy. Get 2 players I want and add 3 picks?! Day 2 would be a blast!
Thanks, Rob. You killed it. Enjoy the draft.
Thanks Rob. Let’s fing go!
Exceptional work Rob. If this happens I think Philly will have to change their name to the Philadelphia Bulldogs.
Interesting draft. I would be afraid to move down from #5 when your guy is there, no guarantees he will be there later. Not even sure that Houston or Detroit wouldn’t go quarterback. So it’s a gamble. On the other hand it would be great to have more picks in the second and third round. Anyway I would just take the QB I wanted at #5.
If that is how it goes, outstanding, but We will have very tight sphincters while watching.
It’s been great following all your picks and player analyses this draft season. Thank you!
Tomorrow’s the BIG DAY!!!! Rob, thanks again for another year of unbelievable content! This has been your best year yet on SDB! The 12’s are so incredibly lucky to have you! GO HAWKS!!!
Trade 20 to giants for 25, 89, and 160.
5 Anthony Richardson QB
25 John Michael Schmitz OC
37 Darnell Washington TE
52 Keeanu Benton DT
83 Jonathon Mingo WR
89 Zach Pickens DT
123 Byron Young DT
151 Anthony Bradford OG
154 Chris Rodriguez jr. RB
160 Garrett Williams CB
198 Yaya Diaby Edge/OLB
237 Christian Young S
UDFA Robert Cooper DT
Nikki Remigio WR/ST
T.J. Bass OG
Ya ion Thomas RB
That’s last one for me.
That would be a filthy haul.
Benton is my draft crush. If they’re looking for an anchor for this defense, he’s my pick. Just a mauler in run defense. An aggressive block eater.
I tell I really wanted Will McDonald but we have 3 Edge guys but we don’t have a center because Seattle hasn’t taken the position serious enough and I just can’t do Brown on a 1 year contract. Schmitz is the guy we need. He walked on the field as a freshman started ever game for 4 and a half years and that’s what Seattle needs. I hear about paying the iron price well it time to pay for the future pc. On the OL. I post before Rod and Robbie live so I didn’t copy Pickens and Young pick on there scenario at the end of there stream.
Rob, outstanding work these last few years. It’s been a pleasure to check in with the community every day on this site, and that goes for Cha, Robbie, and Adam too. A big thanks to all of you in the comments as well.
I share your sentiment towards the Wilson trade as well. I hope this is the dawn of years to come for Seattle. Glad I can be alive to witness it.
Great mock!!! Hopeful it comes to fruition. The thought of trading down and landing Richardson scared the hell outta me. He’ll probably be gone anyway. Here’s hoping I’m dead wrong about future Seahawk Jalen Carter (Aka Lumpy) 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Really appreciate all the research and bringing that into the analysis for us Rob. I would be ecstatic if Seattle could get both these players at #5 & #20 so getting them after trading down and getting more picks would be a miracle to me.
And with the draft less than 24 hours away also want to say a big thank you for all the work and write ups you’ve done leading up to this draft. I’ve learned a ton about the players and what Schneider and Carroll’s thought process is like going into this draft more so than any past draft. I know you are mostly scouring sources we all have access to but it feels like we have more of an inside look on the team than fans that aren’t following this blog. So thank you and cheers to tomorrow.
Obviously this would be the dream scenario but not sure how likely and I would probably be a nervous wreck for the next 5 picks, would rather just guarantee Stroud (or Richardson) and hope to trade down at 20
Just an awesome draft that would be. Well done. And thanks so much for all the work you’ve put in over the last year. I contribute via Patreon but am getting off so cheap for the content here. thanks!
What a great read. Especially the lead up into your mock. I really like you how tie the threads together to support your work.
At first I thought it highly unlikely they’d do that, given the history of never picking this high, combined with a rare flush QB class at the top.
But I’ve been working my own top 10 and what I keep seeing is a scenario where the second QB doesn’t come off until #4 with Indy taking Levis (confirming both the narrative that Indy loves Levis and the narrative that Levis will be the 2nd QB taken).
If that happens, then it means Seattle have two QBs to pick from at 5, and dontcha know Carroll was quoted today saying there are a couple of QBs they’d be thrilled to have.
So if the first 4 picks fall that way, and Seattle find themselves contemplating an offer from Philly to move down to 10, knowing the Eagles will take Carter at 5, and knowing the Bears won’t take a QB at 9, it leaves Carroll and Schneider wondering if one of Ant or Stroud can get past Detroit, Vegas and Atlanta.
I think Dan Campbell knows who he’s taking and it’s not an offensive player. So really that leaves Vegas and Atlanta.
I can see Vegas looking at JimmyG the way Seattle view Geno — as a bridge QB. I recognize the buzz around their first pick is at CB, but I can see them pivoting to QB if they have their pick of CJ or AR.
I don’t know that Atlanta is ready to give up on Ridder. Perhaps if Richardson were to fall to them, they’d make that pick. If Vegas were to take Ant, I don’t think Atlanta would select Stroud. I think they’d take Robinson.
So really it comes down to whether Vegas would take Richardson. Because if they take Richardson, I think Stroud falls right into Seattle’s lap at 10. And frankly I’d be ecstatic if they nabbed Stroud an picked up a R2 or a R3 + R4 in the process. Or if they go in a different direction, say CB, then even if Atlanta take Ant, Stroud still falls. And of course, there’s the possibility that both fall like you have here.
So I guess it’s not as unlikely as I might have thought. Thanks for the fantastic work!
Thinking out loud:
– QBs front-loaded at the very tip top of the draft
– WRs front-loaded in the first 2-3 rounds
– Good class of various DL types early and late
– Weak LB class
– Strong OLine, RB, DB class (even late)
– TEs are a luxury they can’t afford
So Stroud scored an 18% on the cognition test hence everyone dropping him like a fly. Do you put much value on that test”
Young 98%
Levis 93%
Richardson 79%
Hooker 46%
Stroud 18%
Mahomes and Allen both scored well thru 80%.
My pushback on people clubbing Stroud with the S2 is if that 18 score has actually been verified?
Secondly, for all those putting so much emphasis on it, why don’t they have Tanner McKee up in the first round? After all, he scored he same as Bryce Young.
I think it’s legit, Stroud already responded, the question now is, is the S2 test legit?
You can hear it here:
https://twitter.com/scott_fowler/status/1651285087680331785?s=20
Stroud is far far superior as an athlete and thrower of the football to McKee (to you asking why I wouldn’t put Tanner McKee in the first round). I could score a 99% S2 and with my football skills still not be the best flag football QB in my neighbourhood. That doesn’t make the test useless.
That said, it’s still new enough that teams are figuring out how to use the test. It’s interesting that the Seahawks aren’t one of the 15 NFL teams that currently have a contract with S2. There are also people that believe that some of the S2 tests are useful, while others are less predictive (it’s a composite of a number of different tests), so the overall score of 18% might not be as helpful with Stroud as it’s components.
I view it like any other piece of information. A helpful data point that tells part of the story. The Seahawks have strict arm length guidelines at certain positions. We’ve seen plenty of examples of players that don’t fit the Seahawk’s physical parameters for a position be successful in the NFL for teams that put less stock into the particular metric. There are lots of ways to win.
Might explain why OSU coaches never took the training wheels off for him.
I don’t post often, but I’ve been following this blog on a weekly basis (often daily) since 2010. I appreciate all that you do Rob! I’ve loved the draft more than I’ve actually cared about football since I was kid, and this site is he far my favorite!
hahahahahaha… this would be absolutely ridiculous.
sending schneider straight to the HOF… baybee!
Hope you knock it out of the park Rob!
Well obviously this would be an amazing, amazing draft. I hope it goes down this way. Adding #62, #91 and #92 in the sweet area of the draft, and possibly using them to move up into better areas to target certain players, would be quite the coup. Is it worth the risk possibly missing out on Richardson? Obviously that comes down to the way the board falls, and John’s feel of who other teams are targeting. He’ll certainly have a better idea than us, we can only make our best guess.
Glad you assembled a lot of the relevant quotes, helps form a picture on what may happen tomorrow. I’m so ready to roll!
Surely the juiciest mock you’ve *ever* posted. Tbh, too good to be true.
Just wanna also shout out my appreciation for this website, Rob, the work, the constant content, the intellectual high standards, the interlocutors, & the community in these happening comment sections.
Masterclass of a draft and offseason Rob. Your work, especially this last draft cycle, is simply unparalleled. You deserve a long break, but then….what would I read?
Thank you!
Carter now -180 to go #5 overall. Only Young (-2000) currently has higher odds attaching him to a draft slot.
Saw that too. Not overly concerned yet, but if Carter gets up to -300, I’ll be pretty nervous.
I love the Mock draft. Since we are all mostly here for pleasure and the thrill of the game, having this scenario play out would be the perfect cheap thrill. (just like many of the historic Seahawk wins) As many have mentioned above it would be a tough wait from pick 5 to 9. I suggest that if this happens that the ones who did not want Carter do not spend that time gloating. Focus on the positive and the player you want at #10 and how much fun it will be to have those additional picks.
Fandual has Carter -180 to go 5 and Draftkings has Carter -150 to go 5 and specifically the seahwks.Plus Philly only has only 6 picks in the draft and there has been talk of them trading down as well. Lines moved from plus 400 /500 to the currents odds yesterday.That s the same day Schneider said on the radio him and Pete Carroll were meeting with Jody Allen to tell them heir final plan.Philly trade definitely possible but I think there’s a solid chance Carter could be the pick also.
I doubt it — and plenty of people are also doubting it now in the media
We don’t have long to wait though
As always, love the work Rob.
Seems a bit too good to be true, but hey, it could happen right?
Man I would go nuts if we trade back with Stroud and Richardson on the board
True for me also, and for the record I’d be very happy if we took Stroud. One of he or Richardson is a home run draft. Richardson makes me silly with excitement.
I just realized how insane this draft would drive the pro-Carter camp. Carter is there and we trade down with the Eagles…who pick Carter.🤣
I would absolutely take my pants off after both Seattle picks in round 1 if it goes like this!
Those are arguably my two favorite players in the draft! Add the extra value from trades and it’s immaculate! Well done. Richardson is what dreams are made of. Mcdonald can scream off the edge. 2-for-2.
I appreciate all your work on the blog and streams and your time and insights, as always. I’ve been a follower of the blog since way back when.
In 2012 argued with you against Courtney Upshaw (who went 35th) in favor of Bruce Irvin (who went 15th). We’re on the same page this year, no doubt. Perhaps we learn from experience and our passion for Seahawks football and the NFL Draft over time.
Fingers crossed 🤞 you win the Huddle Report this year!
PS this was meant for Rob, not as a reply.
If we could trade back from 5 to 10 and 20 to 28 and get Richardson and McDonald I would do back flips. Probably crack my melon but would at least give it a go. Then still have picks 37, 52, 62, 83,91 and 92 to do damage. Would also gain some cap space as well in the process, mostly from the trade down of 5 to 10.
I’m still sticking with my gut that Carter slides all the way either out of the first or at best the late first. I just don’t trust him
Holy Cr*p! I literally would not be able to sleep tomorrow night if the first round goes like this. I hope there would be people on Rob’s reactions piece up with me.
Two ideal choices AND extra picks for Day Two!? Yes please!
Rob just wanted to say thanks again for all the hard work you do with this stuff. It’s an incredible resource and makes this process so much fun.
My prediction is Richardson or Witherspoon with their first pick
Thank you
If the Hawks make that trade I’m going to need TWO packs of cigarettes due to sheer nerves
Yeah that stretch from 5 to 10 would be unbearable.
When I saw this trade I immediately thought of Pete Carroll’s story about drafting Russell Wilson. John Schneider was confident Russ would be there when they picked in the 3rd and Pete said he was sweating it out. GMs in professional sports are wired differently from us when it comes to risk tolerance.
What an awesome draft this would be with that start. Too good to be true pinch me kinda thing. I think it flies in the face a bit of JS recent admissions that they’ve maybe got a bit too cute in previous drafts and I wouldn’t trust Detroit, Atlanta or Tennessee trading up and taking QBs. Still having a shot at both Stroud and AR at pick 10??? 😂 we can dream!!
Man, Rob what a masterclass year you’ve had covering all things Seahawks this year. You’ve always gone above and beyond in the decade plus I’ve been following this blog but this year was the special 50+ TD season. Really appreciate all the work you put in and look forward to coming to this blog daily to read your articles and probably 90% of the comments. I am so looking forward to the coverage the next few days. Cheers!
I read these updates almost daily, because I find the analysis to be thoughtful and thorough. I also think the Seahawks need to come away with a QB if possible.
I do appreciate that you are now acknowledging that trading down might be desirable in certain circumstances. I am not hoping they trade down, but there is a sequence of picks/trades above them that might dictate that they at least consider the possibility.
I would be quite excited if they came away from the first round with the players in this mock as well as the extra draft capital.
I would be absolutely gobsmacked if stroud lasts to 11, mouth would be on the floor. Can’t wait for draft tomorrow
I’ll echo what so many of us have felt and said; really well done this year Rob. Honestly, it’s amazing every year and every year you change and grow in how you process the team and players, and then present it to us. It’s been a delight to grow and learn as a fan, right along with you. We are a lucky bunch to have you and eachother.
Your draft is an absolute dream scenario. Were it to land this way, I would likely💩 myself with excitement.
Thanks so much for all you invest into your second full-time job!
Thanks!
Luuuv This!!!!
John loves to wheel and deal. We get two outstanding picks in round one – players who may have been 1-2 on the Hawks board at their respective positions AND we get 6 picks on day 2 – the bullseye of this draft.
Well done Rob and (hopefully)Hawks!
This would be an amazing haul of a draft but I would be scared shitless trading down and then missing out on any of the big 3 QBs. Already petrified they go 1,2,3,4 and we go defense. 😝
This is a fantastic article Rob. And you did just the right amount of explaining the intel.
I just can’t see Vegas taking a corner and pass on Stroud and Richardson. Unless Jimmy G signed the deal with a wink wink we won’t take a QB in the first to put you in the same position as SF.
That would be the spot that if JS traded back thinking he was being cute and smart, and bam.
Like a said earlier, Levis is an anagram for Elvis, and in Vegas Captain Bowl-cut might get confused.
Tomorrow is going to kill me if they trade back.
I will hear the screams here in Florida.
I’m not saying I like it, but I believe our Seahawks are taking Jalen Carter at 5.
I suspect we might get a chance at Levis at 20, or if we trade up to take him in the mid teens — I suspect he will drop.
But I love how thoroughly uncertain this draft is.
In Rob I trust. Thanks for the amazing analysis and relentless content. If we snag Richardson and McDonald, wow . . . just wow!
Can I ask a favour? Please watch my latest appearance on VSiN:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIHq1rpjNwA
Let’s get those viewing numbers up!
I’m off to bed now but wanted to also say thanks to all of you again for the kind words
Gladly, Rob. Thank you for all of your hard work. This is such a great place with tremendous information and foresight. Truly one of a kind.
Get some sleep Rob. I’ve got money on it!
Great content on that video. I love what you say and how you handle these situations. Hate the background. That light is so distracting. You may want to consider some kind of upgrade/change. In your spare time.
Done. Great stuff.
Broadcasting it to the TV in the sports bar.
Group of Lions fans are here. They are convinced they are getting Will Anderson.
Was a great show. Thanks for the heads up
Great mock Rob. Very interesting.
Question: If they are switching back to a 4-3 or even doing a combination front, what players are now a consideration, out of consideration and which players could work in both?
Taking a shot at it so please correct me if you disagree:
Tyree Wilson – 4-3
Will McDonald – Both
Will Anderson – Both
Ade Ade – Both
Van Ness – 4-3
Nolan Smith – 3-4 (OLB?)
Myles Murphy – 4-3
Keion White – Both
Calijah Kancey – Both
Derick Hall – Both
Jalen Carter – Both
Byron Young (ALA) – Both
Byron Young (Ten) – Both
BJ Ojulari – Both
Keannu Benton – Both
Zack Pickens – Both
If it’s a hybrid I think anyone fits! They might shape the scheme around who they get
That’s what I was thinking too. A hybrid would be best of both worlds. We might get a clearer picture after the draft or we might not!
Sea Mode – in response to your post last article about the John Boyle in the combine room piece, what players were you able to decipher?
Surprise name at #20: Deonte Banks
Thanks for all the hard work Rob! And now… we wait ha
I will vomit if we trade down with Stroud and Richardson on the board and they both go. Between the Lions/Raiders/Falcons/Titans there’s just too many teams who need an upgrade. Hell, why wouldn’t the Bears take Stroud? Grab a haul and still end up with your guy.
Love the picks, would honestly be stoked with them at 5 and 20. Got a horrible feeling PCJS are going to have one of their too clever by half drafts, bouncing all over the place and the team ends up with a lot of not much.
I would join you in vomiting lol
Thinking out loud….Draft day player trades could shake things up quite a bit. Mac Jones, Lamar, Hopkins, etc. I think we’re in for a wild ride
I love the picks, but I don’t think they’re going to gamble on losing their guy, AR. I think John will be drooling at the screen after the Colts pick and will take select calls only for a trade. If a team doesn’t come calling with a serious overpay, he won’t get greedy and chance it. He’s been waiting his whole tenure in Seattle for this moment.
All hail King Rob! Thanks for providing so much info and a great place to come and discuss our favorite team and all these great prospects. Here’s to a great draft tomorrow!
Hey, anyone else have 10 pounds of brisket in the oven?
If you want to get depressed, listen to brock and salk this mirning. They had fans call in and say who the Seahawks HAD to come out of the draft with for it to be a successful draft. 80% said Carter. 😖 Others said Hooker. They used terms like NEED and GAMEWRECKER.
Just goes to show most of the fanbase has been brainwashed by media and just buy into whatever they are fed by other fans and talking heads. The RW trade IMO really exposed just how easily this fanbase just buys into bad arguments and equally bad narratives.
Speaking of the RW trade, compare the haul of draft picks and players we obtained from Denver against the Jets/Packers trade involving Aaron Rodgers. Any Denver fans here? Thank you very much!
A trade back at 5 would have all my anxieties at peak meltdown. I’d be completely let down if they don’t get a qb.
Just wanted to say. Great job. That’s almost another year in the wraps. Been following this site since 2010 (the Earl Thomas/Russell Okung) draft on almost a weekly basis. May have followed it during the 2009 Aaron Curry draft, but I can’t confidently say that. The work & effort here is second to none.
Rob I just wanted to tell you I think your commitment to a passion should be an example to us all.
The weird craziness of the draft is strong in this one. It’s impossible predict, but this has the realistic volatile feel to it.
Meanwhile:
“Commanders declining DE Chase Young’s fifth-year option.“
So much for the D-linemen being safe high picks.
Day 3 is gonna be loaded w/ EDGEs. Tennessee’s Byron Young, Mizzou’s Isaiah McGuire, L’ville’s YaYa Diaby, Ohio St’s Zach Harrison, Oregon’s DJ Johnson. If I’m Seattle? I’m taking 1 no questions asked. Couple of em will end up being double digit sack guys.
Love Byron Young and he is so Seahawky it will almost surprise me if we don’t take him. Yaya and Harrison are awfully intriguing as well.
I’m low-key hoping we come away from this with both Byrons Young on the d-line.
Day Three should be deep in running backs and cornerbacks too. I think it is entirely possible another Senior Bowl standout mocked in Round Two becomes a Day Three steal. Darius Rush?
Nick Hampton from App St*
“I’d also like to take this chance to thank the community. I can’t believe that we’re a few days away from essentially putting a bow on the Russell Wilson trade. It was a huge moment in Seahawks history and since it was announced, I’ve gone into overdrive trying to cover this crucial period. Your words of support and encouragement have meant so much, especially in this weirdly toxic time that we live in where everyone is constantly trying to tear each other down.”
No, thank you. It’s been a real pleasure watching/reading you and growing this blog into a really great place for us super-fans.
And I’ve been thinking all day about this being the bow on the Wilson trade tomorrow. Historical times indeed…..as Churchill once said, history is written by the victors. Seahawks and their fans will be the victors by the end of this weekend!
p.s. no idea how to make the quotes green font.
To Rob, everyone who comments, and all the supporters, this has been a fantastic year of discussion. Well done everyone. I think we all read many draft breakdowns and Rob just absolutely crushes it.
I think we would be very fortunate to get Richardson at 10. I know Schneider is excellent at projecting where players may fall but if he’s your guy just take him at 5. Let’s not get cute and lose out. Is Vegas in the market for a QB or are they set with Jimmy G?
If they trade down with Richardson on the Board it means they don’t love him or they are extremely confident he will still be there. He’s my top pick at five and I hope they just stick and pick him.
Stick and pick.
If this came to fruition. Which I see as completely plausible. Idk if I will have been ever so happy hahah this would be absolute TOP best case scenario.
Our lines of thinking are quite similar. I did my own mock and had Will Anderson available at 5 since some are speculating the Texans could like Tyree Wilson over Anderson because of his size and length, so I went with Anderson at 5 and then Hendon Hooker. Of course if Anderson’s gone, I tend to agree that something like Richardson and then Will McDonald or someone like him (such as Nolan Smith or B.J. Ojulari) makes a lot of sense as well. Not sure the Eagles would trade all the way up to 5 for Carter (I could see up to 7 or 8), but perhaps I’m wrong.
Interesting thought, if both Anderson and Richardson were available at 5, I wonder how likely it would be that the Seahawks would take Richardson and pass on Anderson.
From a fan perspective, this is my favorite mock you’ve done, Rob. Sign me up and let’s go Hawks!
I like the trade down for Richardson, as I think the risk is mitigated by Tenn, LV, ATL, DET front offices not having the equity/rope to wait for Richardson to develop while keeping their jobs. Pete and John do.
I believe you are on the correct path here. 5 to 10 also drops the salary cap hit for that top pick and they are out of money. They were all in on Wilson AND thought about going for him round 1 AND waited instead until the 3rd. I saw a report yesterday that Skoronski is also dropping on some team’s boards, although I couldn’t find it again later to catch the source. This makes sense to me as the top guard, tackles are valued more and 3-4 of them could go before him.
They aren’t trading and drafting to save money.
Checked robs trades and did some basic math….if robs scenario happened it’s a savings of maybe 2-3 million tops.
In a sport that counts in billions and rosters that are made of a few hundred million….it’s essentially not a savings.
It’s the difference in cutting a player, if they don’t have another one they want to cut.
Not directly, but it is a supporting reason as opposed to having all the space in the world.
Also, you should know that Mike Florio is an absolute tool. Exhibit A was his analysis this year that Seattle wouldn’t spend a top pick on a QB because of all the drama surrounding Wilson’s departure. This was literally the stupidest thing I came across about Seattle heading into the draft. This is not the only example I could cite but the others are old, old stories. He doesn’t know football, knows less about other things, and often tries to use his website to highlight his other nonsense.
Hi Rob (and cha),
Wanted to give you a big thanks on all the great coverage this year. I’m amazed at the amount of work you put in and love that I can come here and get a great write up on prospects all through out the draft, not just the first round. Also, love that you really take what John and Pete say and preach, not just looking at team needs. It’s truly great analysis.
Because of y’all I have never been so excited for a draft, and I am more invested in the hawks than ever.
Whatever happens I’ll be stoked as a hawks fan. It’s a sport at the end of the day, something we are supposed to enjoy and love.
Again, thank you both so much. Go Hawks!
Rob you killed this year.
This mock. Lord. If it happens. Brain blown.
If Will Anderson lasts to 5, do people think there’s a chance we might trade up from 20 to secure one of the top 4 QBs if they start falling?
Great work again with this Rob, interesting to see all the intel pulled together, I can’t wait to see what happens tonight (or rather tomorrow morning here in the UK!).
I was thinking the same thing! Could we move up 2 spots to 18 with Detroit to get ahead of Tampa for a 4th round pick if AR drops? I’d be so stoked if we were on here tomorrow night talking about how exciting it is to have Will Anderson and Anthony Richardson both in Seahawks uniforms next year!!
Go Hawks!
If Anderson lasts to 5 it’ll be because the 4 QBs went first so there’d be no QB left to trade up from 20 for
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
I can’t tell you – Rob and this entire community – how much I enjoy this site. It’s essential reading.
That said, I kind of view mock drafts like trying to pick the lottery numbers and then hit 3 consecutive power balls – and Pete Carroll controls two of the balls – it’s highly, highly unlikely that the draft could be predicted even if it were just straight, no trades, but I appreciate the effort. What I particularly enjoy here is the discussion of the possibilities. Who’s available, what can they do and where do they fit? That’s some good stuff. Even now, every time I see Joel Bitonio, I grimace and say, “yeah, Rob nailed that guy – shoulda been a Seahawk.” Now I’ll probably feel that way about a handful of 2023 guys – particularly Anthony Richardson when he’s on the cover of Madden ’28 in his Raiders gear.
Reading the SDB makes me feel like a big shot smart guy – the kind who wears socks and brushes his teeth. I know – nuts.
So, I guess my final question before the draft – trading up to 2 and snagging Jalen Carter – great idea or the greatest idea? I’ll hang up and listen.
Thanks for the question caller….
On the one hand the superbowl window is so open it’s not even a window but a wide open field full of sun and dewy grass.
The defense is completely stacked with all pro talent. Never mind they aren’t playing just know it’s stacked. Think LOB….but better.
Then, we have to consider the feelings of the greatest seahawk qb ever, nay, greatest seahawk (regardless of position) ever.
What would he want us to do? And then what would Mike florio want us to do for him?
I mean I saw recently that when you are collating season stats you add in post season results as well (hawkblogger i see you and your new math). So since we’re doing that I thought I’d also divide the ints in half. Mostly cause I want to but partly because that feels right. So…instead of 30-11….really it’s more like 32 tds to probably only 5.5 interceptions. Plus I added 600 yards. Because of all the yards Dee eskridge should have had.
So best qb….certainly in the NFC. Maybe in all of football past and present.
This “bump and Stacy capital “L” loaded defense….
And now you’re even asking if a guy who is better than cortez Kennedy should be for us at #2 in a trade….a positional defining d tackle. Now imagine if you yet again redefined that position. You’re looking at 15 sacks from that spot plus maybe like 8-10 interceptions.
This is a no brainer.
Like both of us have literally lost our minds with this exchange.
You wear socks Gross? God how high fallutin’ can a guy get.
Based on the video the number one trait GMs look for is a player’s ability to “come in.” Generally there seems to be a bias towards players who can go the extra mile and “come in and play,” but it seems as though the minimum threshold is just being a guy who can “come in.” So let’s get some damn door kickers.
Would love trading down from #5 and still getting Stroud/Richardson
Would the Eagles be willing to give up #30 or a 2024 1st to move down?
Knocked it out of the park again this year. Unbelievable job! I’ve barely watched a clip of film on any of these prospects but couldn’t be more excited for the draft tonight just from reading this blog everyday
I still think the Lions will poach a QB if any are available to them.
It is like the movie Draft Day. Costner moving around the seahawks for Bo Callahan! My opinion is that JS had had Levi’s on his radar since before last years draft and he has been the guy all as long at #5. Should be interesting. Thanks Rob for the exceptional reporting and insight. Best year ever!
Let’s Gooo Hawks!
Well done Rob, thanks for all the amazing content and dedication you put into your incredible site. I get into trouble with the other (better) half, just for the time I spend reading the articles and listening to the podcasts, so massive credit to you for finding the time and application to put together such an interesting, informative blog. If the draft finally being here feels like a relief for most us, I can’t imagine how it must feel for you.
Thanks again Rob.
That’s funny. My wife is the same way. When I try to explain it to her it sounds ridiculous.
I fell out of an engagement a few years ago in part because of SDB and my Seahawks obsession
True story
Amazing!!
Fiancé’s come and go but SDB never dies….
Until Rob gets a job with Nagy and moves his family to mobile that is.
She wasn’t worth marrying if she doesn’t understand your football fandom. I told my Mrs. not long after we started dating that under no uncertain terms was I EVER going to stop being a hardcore football fan in general and the Seahawks in particular. She’s tried half-heartedly to move me off that a couple of times and I just remind her of that conversation and we move on from there.
Tbf she must have thought for a while that it might happen….I mean 2021 with an injured russ, penny out again, geno off the bench…..pretty grim games for a while.
Hi Rob,
Love all your hard work, this has been essential reading each morning for over a year now!
A question: all the way through the draft process you have questioned why a team would trade with Seattle rather than Arizona, who are desperate to trade? Would Arizona not take the same deal the Seahawks did? They could certainly get Paris Johnson at 10 and get the extra picks they crave. Secondly, you said that you don’t think Detroit will take Carter, in which case, what is the reasoning for the Eagles to jump them? If you think they could stay put and take him, won’t they think similar? And shouldn’t Seattle not overthink things and take their guy (AR) when he’s available – are we learning nothing from the Collier situation?
As I say, I love your content, it just seems to me that this trade goes against a lot of what you have been saying in the build up – and just question, are you actually joining the dots or simply overthinking? Many thanks.
1. It is cheaper to move from ten to five than to three.
2. Though all this is speculation teams of course do not know who anyone will take. Detroit, per example feels like they will go CB anyways. But in a real world sense Philly has no idea if they would or if they would take Carter. Thus a trade.
Look at Carolina. They moved up to one. In robs mock with hindsight maybe that wasn’t necessary.
Or, maybe they don’t trade and either someone else cuts a deal to Chicago or no one does and the draft falls off its axis for them as now Houston who does need a qb but also can justify waiting…they take stroud.
Another outstanding Mock, Rob! In my ideal world we would get AR, Will McDonald and Ade Ade. This Mock goes a long way to getting there.
On Carter, after the big parade of Seahawks staff visiting the top four QB’s and Will Anderson at Bama, I just don’t see how anyone would think that the relative lack of attention the Seahawks paid him will result in him being selected with the #5 pick. If they were truly interested in him, the large contingent would have swung by to his pro day workout like they were planning on doing with Wilson and did work out the top QB’s and Anderson. Carter strikes me as being in a 2nd or 3rd round category for the Hawks.
Would it though? And following that logic, if they weren’t interested, why have him in for a top 30 visit?
Because they are doing due diligence if he falls into the second or later round. They brought in guys that will be later round targets for a 30 visit. None of the QB’s were brought in for a 30 visit, while Anderson they saw at the Pro Day and brought in for a 30.
Not going to Carter’s pro day after he didn’t work out at the combine screams they are not seriously considering him for our first pick.
Would be an ideal outcome. I would take Richardson at 5. But i think it is very interesting that you decided to go for the trade. Because it must mean that you think that the most likely outcome. It hinges on five decisions by other teams. Philly wants Carter and needs to go before the Lions. (Very possible). The Raiders do not see themselves as ready for a player like Richardson. (Very possible.) Atlanta really believe in their QB. (Possible) Tennessee prefer Stroud. (Possible). So Schneider must be very sure about all of this to do this trade.
Man this draft would be insanely good, I might consider using some of that extra draft capital to move up in round 2 to get specific guys you want (Adetomiwa Adebawore). But I’d also be far too nervous to move down before targeting Richardson if he’s there.
Thanks for all the hard work this year Rob, you’ve smashed it out the park and now it’s just time to wait and see what happens.
I’ve been following this site for what must be 10 years. I believe the first time I was reading was around the Glen Dorsey / Michael Crabtree draft, but it’s so long ago that I can’t even remember if this site even existed back then.
It’s been a pleasure to follow this blog and watch your style grow throughout the years. This is without a doubt the best offseason of coverage you’ve given us. I know, I know, we say that every year, but I don’t think any team has such comprehensive and specific coverage that we have as Seahawks fans thanks to you.
Thanks for everything Rob!
Happy Draft Day everyone! Christmas has arrived!!!!!!
Let’s go!
Stupid timezones, I have to be up at 3 am to meet Santa 🙂
See you there… 🙃
Finally!
Draft Day!!!
Final countdown t-10:00:00
Going to be a long day at work…
I’m in France, can anyone tell me what time the 1st pick is over here?
Draft starts at 8PM east coast time and France is 6 hours ahead so it should be 2 AM local, but verify yourself.
Hope you get to watch on the net!
Thanks Tim, I sometimes get confused by what time coverage starts and what time the 1st pick is. This is first time I’ll be watching the draft live. I’ll be setting my alarm!!
10 minutes in between picks in first round. Plus, probably commissioner speech at the beginning for a couple of minutes. https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/how-long-is-the-nfl-draft-how-many-picks-and-rounds-are-there-01gysqqj6s6q
Thursday night down here in Australia, I’m feeling all kinds of twitchy.
Richardson just feels like he’s our guy, it’ll be absolutely revolting if someone like Tennessee trades up and swipes him.
I really hope Tenn doesn’t end up with him. There’s no way any rookie QB they draft will be able to be red-shirted all year. Tannehill’s body is crumbling faster than his play, and Malik Willis looks like a joke. They’ll be clamoring for Richardson to start by week 8.
Love Robs work
Really enjoy the moxy of the draft.
I’ve been following forever so I have to remember that these final mocks are how Rob perceives the draft to unfold and not necessarily how he would do it.
On the one hand obviously if this worked it would rule.
On the other when Atlanta, vegas, Tennessee, other?, gets ahead of us I’ll feel the exact same as drafts 2013…Christine Michael anyone? Through 2019….collier, sure why not.
woke up in the middle of the night last night having dreamt that the Seahawks selected a WR named Shea Traube at #5… the draft (2:00 AM Stockholm time) can’t get here fast enough!
Great work Rob. Thanks for giving your time to give us a great draft season. This is the scariest scenario I’ve seen. I’m not sure I could survive picks 6-9 if this happens. I would fear Atlanta taking a QB, BPA tendency and all. Or Tennessee moving up I would have liked to see exactly what we do with the extra stock. Taking AR/Stroud at 5 and McDonald after a trade back is good with me
I”m still perplexed at what’s happened to CJ Stroud’s draft stock over the past two weeks. I feel bad for this kid. Hopefully, it will work to the Seahawks advantage. Not only is Seattle his favorite NFL team, but coming into the league with a massive, ‘you’re not smart enough’ chip on his shoulder is a motivational chip that I’m sure Pete would know how to tap into.
He’s not my favorite QB in this draft, but if he falls out of the top 4, someone is getting a massive gift.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/look-c-j-stroud-thinks-he-knows-why-troubling-news-leaked/ar-AA1aobol?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=7168126993d24662874252004642f4dd&ei=12
A lot of the mocks today have got him going third after a trade up
So hopefully it’s all a fuss over nothing
Vegas or Atl will trade up to take him at 3 and the Cardinals can still get Johnson at 7-8 before the Bears. That’s my guess.
People freaking out about a test they had never heard of before two weeks ago which his zero proven statistical validity. Seems more media-driven than anything else. I doubt it really impacted how teams feel about him.
New ideal scenario
Take Will Anderson at #5
Then trade up from #20 for Anthony Richardson
No white board in the Seahawks war room would be safe if we pulled that off.
Schraeger mock 2.0 has Carter at 5 and Richardson at 12 after a trade up.
I’m not sure about Carter at 5, but I wouldn’t be overly bummed about it.
Commented exactly that during the stream yesterday. Dare to dream!
(well, today for us… 😁)
Would be hard to argue with that.
If anyone wants some kind of reason at all to get their hopes up for this…
Now do the one where Trey Lance got picked high, mahomes went from 27th ish to 10, allen went top 10, goff went early, wilson went from fringe fifth to third.
OMG that would be amazing!!
I was about to comment that I would be kind of ok with the Carter experiment if we still trade up to get Richardson.
Anderson + Richardson would be the absolute best scenario possible🤩
Yes this, for whatever reason players John Schneider has traded up for have more success in the NFL than with players taken after trading back (or so I’m led to believe). I’m sure there must be something psychological in this.
Or CJ Stroud.
Here we are, draft day. This blogs’ annual culmination of speculation and hard work. Another incredible year of reading and entertainment from our host Rob. Before we all get lost in the fervor of today, thank you Rob for what you bring to draft analyses, and the conversation it sparks (both healthy and sometimes unhealthy, we see you Seahawks twitter). I feel that we get a more comprehensive perspective of why a team would go a particular direction and the evidence to support it, and other fanbases could be so lucky. Cheers, and I wish you another successful year!
Regardless of what happens, let’s have fun and enjoy tonight here on SDB!
My final mock. This is an official one we do at my work. It scored by Team/ player selection not the postion they are drafted and no trades are allowed. So my focus was 100% just matching team with player. Stole a bunch of ideas from Rob. If can get 10 right would be estatic.
#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) seems like done deal.
#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama) Demeco Ryans gets a leader for his defense.
#3 Arizona — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State) only true prototype LT in the draft.
#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) should be Stroud IMO but Levis seems like their guy.
#4 Seattle — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida) almost took Stroud here but I think Richarson has the most upside of any player in the draft.
#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) as Rob likes to say the most violent player in the draft and my personal favorite defender.
#7 Las Vegas — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State) I know they need help at CB and Gonzalez could be the pick but how can they pass on Stroud with only Jimmy G at QB.
#8 Atlanta — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)- Bijan could definitely be in play her but if Wilson falls to 8 I think he is the pick.
#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee) they have a young LT now they get the best OT in the class at RT to kind of mirror the Seahawks with young bookends.
#10 Philadelphia — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia) if he falls past here it could be a long slide.
#11 Tennessee — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern) OL is a massive need and he is the best one available.
#12 Texans—Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon) if you were going to build a QB in the lab it would be Gonzalez. Long, fast and good instincts. Stingley and Gonzalez would be a lock down duo.
#13 Green Bay — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) my top WR in the draft. He just gets open.
#14 Patriots — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame) the Pats love TEs and I can’t see them passing on Mayer. Nolan Smith could be an option as well.
#15 NY Jets — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia) they need OL help. Kincad could be an option here as well.
#16 Washington — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland) massive need for Wash.
#17 Pittsburgh — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State) sorry just had to.
#18 Detroit — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) the best player in the draft makes the Lions into legit NFC contenders.
#19 Tampa Bay — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I think he’s better than some of the bigger name tackles.
#20 Seahawks —Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State) I think they trade down first but love this pick for the Hawks . To quote Rob ” could be their answer to Brian Burns. He trained with Seattle’s new pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan earlier this year before he took the Seahawks’ gig and he had a late official-30 visit.”
#21 LA Chargers — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) best receiving TE in the class for Herbert.
#22 Baltimore —Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia) thought about Kancey or a WR here but if he falls Smith just seems like a Raven or Patriot.
#23 Minnesota — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee) think he goes in round 1 and this seems as good a spot as any.
#24 Jacksonville — Dewand Jones (OT, Ohio St) massive human and the Jags need an OT.
#25 New York Giants — Jordan Addison (WR/ USC) the Giants could take Schimtz here but WR is a bigger need.
#26 Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama) Jerry could trade up for Bijan but if not this makes a ton of sense.
#27 Buffalo — Darnell Washington (TE/ Georgia) the Bills likely wanted Mayer or Kincad but settle on this athletic freak. Sam Laporta is another option.
#28 Cincinnati — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa) they need help at DL. TE would likely be thier pick if one of the top guys falls.
#29 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson) seems like the kind of DE they like.
#30 Philadelphia — Brian Branch (S/ Alabama) he could go earlier to a team like the Jags but if not the Eagles run to the podium.
#31 KC – Adetomiwa Adebawore (DL/ Northwestern) think Ade Ade will be the kind of freak athlete they will love. They could try and trade up for Anton Harrison.
What do you guys think? No trades makes it hard.
Mostly seems good tho I don’t see Bijan falling that far. Good Lord tho if he ends up in Detroit…….I also know they’ve been linked by pretty much everyone to Witherspoon and it makes a ton of sense, however………in your scenario a QBoTF in Stroud would be a real possibility especially considering they have another pick at #18.
And best of luck in your contest.
Thanks we each put in 20 bucks and winner takes all. Came 3rd last year. Makes round 1 more interesting even when the Hawks don’t have much draft capital.
This draft scenario would be incredible, but I don’t think I’d survive the night with my high blood pressure. It might be better for my health to not watch it live lol.
https://twitter.com/BridgetCondon_/status/1651350619037536259?s=20
JS says the philosophy of the draft is “aggressiveness, stay pliable…and communicate well.”
Sounds like a trade or 2 is in the cards.
When you make these mocks I think the objective is to make the best prediction of what will actually happen, is that correct?
If so, I think it is a mistake to include any trades. Of course there will be trades, but there’s so many variables that any given trade is less likely than holding the position.
Honestly a little disappointing you had the Seahawks trading down both times. Not that I don’t think they could, but it’s a better test of your predictions.
Trade downs could include established veterans from other teams to fill needs. Also, tight end drafted somewhere Thursday and Friday with possibility of Noah Fant cut for salary cap space for Poona or maybe even Harris?
Fant is a former R1 pick in his prime. He’d easily make most NFL rosters. They wouldn’t cut him, they’d trade him for something of value.
Fant had his 5th-year option picked up when Seattle traded for him so his salary is fully guaranteed. So cutting him is not a possibility.
Trading him is frequently mentioned as an option but it is very unrealistic.
His performance was good last year but not so good as to justify his fully guaranteed salary. He is in the last year of his deal so he would be an expensive one-year rental unless a team was willing to do an extension when they traded for him.
Considering how tight Seattle is against the salary cap, I don’t see us trading for any established veterans.
I wonder if Fant gets moved this weekend, though. Even if it’s for a late (and conditional?) 2024 pick, it would free up cap space to actually sign our draft picks, as well as to possibly bring in a Poona or Clark post-draft.
Please don’t bring back Clark. His regular season play has gone off a cliff.
Cutting Fant would save zero. We’d need to trade him
Possibly a day three for him if we draft someone high.
Problem: if you take a TE in the second and you trade fant for a late rounder those two salaries are now a savings of maybe a million.
The only way it works is if you trade fant but pick a TE in round four or later.
Edit. Correction. It is a better savings than I thought.
Just want to say how grateful we are for your tireless work here, Rob. We are all so indebted and can’t wait to read instant reactions here over the course of the draft. We all owe you a beer.
Players I really don’t want the Hawks to draft in Rds 1-2
– Jalen Carter
– Hendon Hooker
– Myles Murphy
– Kelijah Kancey (great player but 30 1/2 in arms is a no go.
– Trenton Simpson
-Any WR not named JSM, Downs or Mingo
-Any Center in Rd 1
-Tyree Wilson at 5
-Ocyrus Torrence
As long a we avoid these guys I think I will be happy with whoever they take.
Where does the Nolan Smith “high character” stuff come from?
Dude was arrested doing 90 in a construction zone with a suspended license and weed in the truck. His license had been suspended for a whole year at that point. Not exactly great decision making.
Seems like he owned up to it, and doesn’t have any football related “character” issues. But do we really know he’s of “high character”?
My skepticism aside; Smith has been an ardent defender of Carter, and seems to be one of the guys that could be useful for a team drafting Carter and trying to get the most out of him. So the pick makes sense for Philly if that’s how it all goes down.
I think he has so few tangible traits that people are just making up intangibles to match their narrative.
This season has been heavy on this front.
Agree on Nolan Smith. Feels like a guy who is getting the Georgia bump where we look beyond stats and imprint how we want the player to be.
Lots of high profile prospects driving 90+ (including Anthony Richardson). At least Nolan (and AR) were apologetic, seemed to learn from it and haven’t repeated their mistake.
Every team, including Seattle (Geno) have guys who have been in trouble for scary/stupid stuff. Nolan Smith is considered to be an incredible team mate, leader, and hard worker.
I’m not necessarily a big fan of him as a prospect, but that is where the character judgements come from. Teams are willing to work with indiscretions…questions about football character are generally more worrisome for them.
KJ Wright on Sirius right now. Said Jody Allen has told PC/JS not to be afraid to move up in this draft to get their QB of the future. Let’s gooo!
Love it!
Like this news. Only issue is that I guess KJ wanted us to take Hooker at 5….
Wow, now there’s some good inside info if true.
Jody:
“Pay the iron price”
I seriously would be so pumped if this turns out to be the case.
Jody gets it. Kinda wish she wasn’t selling the team.
After hearing John Schneider talk about how licked down the Seahawks info is, I cannot believe KJ is stating anything but his guess about how the conversation with Jody went.
Any draft that includes us drafting Richardson, including a trade up, will have me dancing with excitement. I hope that after their meetings with him and background work they agree!
Happy Draft Day, Everyone! Go Hawks!
If the Hawks take Richardson I love it after a tradedown I like what the Eagles got in your draft making them absolutely a Monster becoming even better I would take that for the Hawks hehehe.
Happy Anthony Richardson day! I hope!
Likewise Bobby tho CJ Stroud day would work for me too.
Agree 100% either Richardson or Stroud would be a home run.
What I hope:
1. Richardson, QB
1. Kancey, DT
2. Gibbs, RB
2. Brown, FS
3. Young or Roy, DT
4. Pappoe, LB
That’s a strong draft Bobby. 💪
Really cool look into the prospect interviews at the combine. Names are removed from the players, but by the school, position, and backstory, you can kinda guess who they are. Nice tidbit about AR’s meeting too.
https://www.seahawks.com/news/a-star-struck-star-qb-nerves-mini-cheesecakes-more-from-inside-the-seahawks-2023
Who were you able to decipher?
I’m thinking Drew Sanders for sure
I think the 4.4 LB is Simpson
I wish I knew who the late round guy was
Rob, are you going to post a final horizontal board before the draft?
Not Rob (hopefully he’s getting a bit of sleep) but yes, he aid a couple of hours before the draft starts he’ll post his final horizontal.
Yes — got some busy day job stuff to do then will post it well before the draft begins
No chance I am trading down at 5. JUST TAKE RICHARDSON
I agree.
If you think Richardson is the QBOTF, you don’t mess around with trading down.
If this happens, we are likely to see a post round 1 press conference with Pete and John that makes the L.J. Collier press conference look like a birthday party at Chuck E Cheese.
Good One! LOL
Rumors of Titans moving up to #3 for Stroud.
If Richardson or Stroud is there at 5 please don’t get cute and trade down. Just pick one!
Very odd amount of media chatter that Richardson is falling beyond what we all think he’s worth. It’s making the Rob mock scenario look very plausible.
Word is the Commanders are looking to move either Chase Young or Montez Sweat. Have to think they would prefer to move Young. Wonder if either is worth a 2nd rounder.
How about Fant and #53 for either guy. Including Fant would be to make the $ work.
Yikes.
Trade fant and 53 for either an often injured player and with either guy an extra near 4-5 million over fant’s contract with neither player on a long term deal and then need a TE.
If they could get Sweat for 53 and Fant I would do that deal in a second as long as he is extended prior to the trade. He is better than any pass rusher in this draft class IMO.
For the record, $5.6m stays in Washington as dead cap. Seahawks would only be on the hook for $5.3m.
A second-round pick that could be a Ade Ade, Zacch Pickens or a Keanu Benton though….I’m tempted to say no thanks.
Those three Ade Ade, Benton and Pickens are my 3 favorite DL in the draft but think all will be gone by 53. If not and you can get one of them then agreed you probably stick and pick one of them.
Apologies. The way I see it for young is the dead cap is correct per you.
But I’m reading it for sweat that a pre June 1st trade the new team eats his whole 11 million…..?
Yes
FWIW
Ha
*cough*bullshit*cough*
Hmm I would think a good agent would have done more to counter that test score story.
So that is confirmation they aren’t drafting Stroud because if they were no reason to say anything.
An enjoyable watch just to get you in the mood as we wait. I enjoyed the series last year.
Ex-Seahawks guys also reminded me of the “look for what he can do” emphasis. So many spend time focusing and picking apart what guys can’t do.
“Never Quit Digging” | With The Next Pick Part 1 | 2023 Colts Draft Series
https://youtu.be/zAynDXPUT2o
Tennessee?
Vegas?
Atlanta?
Philly?
Houston??
Seattle?
Iron price
No draft gives you a crown
But in every draft you can get a clown
Or get clowned
Blitzy approves
Well, they’ve reportedly been mulling for a solid two weeks now and might just keep on mulling/drumming up interest until they end up not getting any offer they like enough and turning in the card tonight…
I do wonder about Ossenfort feeling like he needs to get some trade value that will let media say he ‘won’ the deal.
I look at how they are handling their disgruntled players (of course this might all change tonight). You’ve got Hopkins – who the Cards traded a 2nd rounder for Nuk 3 years ago. Since then, he’s been hurt (21) or hurt and suspended for PED’s (22). Now he’s demanding a fat new deal, and is 30 years old.
Yet here is Monte, wanting at least a 2nd and a player from a team that then needs to shell out big $$ on a new deal.
Maybe he’s playing it perfectly and will get great offers at the 11th hour for #3 and DeAndre. Feels like he might get stuck without a chair when the music stops though.
This is the domino. If the run on qbs is real and it feels like some of these stroud/richardson/levis reports are market correction by dolls who thought Willis et al would go early and don’t want to be caught with their pants down this year…..feels unlikely Seattle can trade back and get a qb….if they want one.
Again whether this class is good or bad feels immaterial. Last year was essentially a goose egg class. So now you have teams that need/want a qb this year plus teams that need/want a qb from last year.
I won’t say it feels four qbs in a row because the Texans literally can be back to the table next year….but four in the top ten seems right with us, detroit being us in the Midwest, Vegas, Atlanta, other moving up to Chicago again because they can use every pick they can get.
Interesting to see where some other team writers are with their mocks
Russell Brown is a pretty level headed guy who covers, coincidentally, the Browns.
He’s kind of in the herd when it comes to what he thinks Seattle will do, but I find his overall draft placement of players plausible and interesting.
Like Rob he sees two of the top 4 QBs falling out of the top 10.
He also has Seattle trading down from 20 but I don’t think he hits the pick itself.
Anyway, interesting temp check from elsewhere
https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/04/2023-nfl-mock-draft-with-trades-russell-browns-final-picks-predictions-4-0/
That would be very Cardinals of them to pick another defender and watch their star quarterback get killed for another season.
There’s a reason we drafted bookend tackles last year…
I like the sentiment of that last statement Rob. I can appreciate this community as a place where we don’t have to agree with each other but can also still respect others opinions.
We live in a time where lots of folks seem to think to disagree about something means we HAVE to dislike each other and tear down the other persons beliefs.
Im gonna preach a bit here but, man, if we could learn as human race to try to understand WHY the other person feels the way they do instead of berating them for feeling that way we would go a long way in improving ourselves.
Thanks again Rob and co. And thanks to all on this community for making it a great place to come back to every day.
GO HAWKS!!!
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/final-2023-nfl-mock-draft-texans-take-tyree-wilson-colts-wind-up-with-c-j-stroud?s=01
Rob Rang, who I also respect as a draft analyst, is also projecting a slip for AR. he’s projecting Carter and Richardson to the hawks.
That would be quite the stunner and quite the infusion of talent on both sides of the ball.
“Star quarterback carries sloppy, unkempt defense.”
Sounds on brand to me.
Too funny Cha.
Keeping expectations low today – assuming all 4 QBs will be gone at 5. Hope I’m wrong.
As the start of the draft draws closer, let’s hope that Rob is right with Carter an with his mock draft (or the prior ones).
I collected the final mock drafts of the Huddle Report’s top 12 and the guy that has good chances to be first after this draft, because he only submitted a mock the last four years.
The results are:
1 Matthew Jones: 5 – Anthony Richardson
2 Brendan Donahue: 5 – Tyree Wilson
3 Evan Silva: 5 – Jalen Carter
4 Eddie Brown: 5 – Anthony Richardson
5 Ryan McCrystal: 5 – Jalen Carter
6 Jason Boris: 5 – Jalen Carter
7 Josh Norris: 5 – Jalen Carter
8 Ben Standig: 5 – Jalen Carter
9 Xavier Cromartie: 5 – Jalen Carter
10 Forrest N Long: 5 – Jalen Carter
11 Jared Smola: 5 – Jalen Carter
12 Lance Zierlein: 11 – Nolan Smith
most accurate last 4 years: David P. Woods: 5 – Tyree Wilson
2 x AR
2 x Tyree Wilson
1 x Nolan Smith
8 x Jalen Carter
Funniest thing:
Evan Silva had us trading with Washington in the second last version of his mock draft. Washington took AR at 5 and we took Lukas Van Ness at 16 and then as icing on the cake JSN at 20.
Interesting post here from Charlie Campbell over at Walterfootball sheds some extra light on Tyree Wilson’s foot injury:
https://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/2023-NFL-Draft-Week-Rumors-Thursday
good gawd
Great job Rob, and an enormous amount of work done this year.
I’m not personally buying the OT at pick 3 idea that suddenly seems fashionable, far too many similar ranked OTs to grab one that early, but if Arizona can’t even give that pick away for a song and dance I suppose it’s possible.
Also, you’re going to be kicking yourself if there really is the early run on QBs, seems like you might’ve let the national folks into your head at the last second. Definitely will find out how much B.S. they were full of or not. Going to be fun either way.
Outstanding work once again Rob – this has been a fantastic draft season and I have lived on SDB the whole time! And while I appreciate the mock you did, I still don’t like trading back from 5. I get it, but don’t want to miss on a QB.
It’s really interesting to see so many mocks now that have the Seahawks taking Carter at 5 and then trading up or just taking AR at 20. Would be very interesting if the draft plays out so they can do that. I’m not crazy about Carter at all, but I get the talent. I just don’t want them to miss out on a QB…
And there are quite a few mocks that don’t have McDonald in the 1st round!
Fantastic year of content Rob. Love the mock, obviously would be a dream scenario.
I’ll be thrilled if Stroud & Richardson are both there. Would be thrilled with either
Also was wondering if you listened to Wingo, Caplan, & Pauline yesterday on PFN DRAFT PREVIEW. I believe you said you had, but wasn’t sure.
Some great information and insights to go with yours; especially in relation to our pick.
https://www.youtube.com/live/NwyxuyObhEk?feature=share
Loved these Quotes early in segment.
“Don’t draft for need & Don’t draft for this year.” “DRAFTING FOR THIS YEAR CAN GET YOU FIRED.” To look to the future years out.
Too me this says, No Carter or Wilson; Both you would be picking for this year & need.
Great listen for any Seahawks fan. Pairs well with your Mock draft & prior write up.
Bring on Richardson.
Sounds like Wingo thinks teams could trade up for Carter or Wilson.
Rob, after reviewing the comments and ruminating over past Seahawk drafts I believe you have solidly identified the mold for the type of players JS/PC like and will target. However, I don’t agree with your draft in terms of the trade-downs. I fear perhaps you’ve fallen into the same trap as lesser analysts who believe “Trader John” will seek to trade-down with the early draft picks because that’s what he’s done before (at least before 2022). Those days are done. Here’s why:
If last year’s draft was indicative of anything it’s that JS/PC have refined the draft process, based on lessons-learned, to eliminate mistakes which have resulted in mis-picks or mediocre drafts (Collier, Ifedi, Penny, etc). What was visibly different last year was, “no more getting cute”. They started letting the draft “come to them” instead of thinking they could “manipulate the draft” and still get their guy. They learned they had hurt themselves numerous times believing they could accurately and consistently predict what other teams would do. They got burned, often as not. Last year that changed; this year will mirror that process change.
Thus, I disagree they will trade-down at #5 if Anthony Richardson is available. They will not mess around; they will run to the podium. Can you imagine the fall-out if they get cute and pass on AR at #5, then the Raiders grab him at #7 and he becomes a super-star? It would be worse than picking Carter and him bombing a la Malik McDowell. Whomever we then pick would be underwhelming.
The same logic will apply at #20; this is the range they have usually picked and more than once been burned. They will not trade-down; that’s not how you get the “difference-makers” Carroll was talking about. JS will pick whomever is slotted next and best-available on their board, regardless of position. If that’s Will McDonald, then they will pick him at #20. But if it’s someone else, then that’s who they will select, and hope McDonald falls to them at #37, if he’s ranked accordingly.
Again, imagine the hair-pulling if they trade down from #20 and not only miss on their target (McDonald or whomever), but perhaps a JMS, Mayer, Branch, or Robinson, as well. There are distinct talent-tiers within Rd1, so you really have Tier 1A, 1B…1D, etc. Moving down in this range can backfire; you can miss your guy, miss a falling talent, and leaving you with lesser talent to choose from. It can mess up your whole draft.
On the other hand, I do think trade-up’s will continue to be employed, after Rd1, especially. I could see them possibly moving up from #37 to say, #35 in order to jump ahead of another team to secure a coveted prospect (such as McDonald). We are even more likely to see trade-ups in the #52 and beyond range. This is where the talent drop-off between tiers begins to blur and where they’ve had success in the past (Lockett, DK, Woolen, Lucas and Russell Wilson).
Therefore, while I totally agree with you on the list of players JS will target, I disagree on how that will unfold and thus who we will end up with. The change from last year with fewer trade-downs will persist, and I expect us to come out of the draft with 8 or 9 players, rather than 10-12. I know it’s impossible to measure, but I believe the quality of our draft as a whole, will be higher despite having fewer picks.
I think you’re misinterpreting the intent of this mock. This isn’t Rob saying definitively “this is what’s going to happen. take it as fact”
This is just a scenario, based on all the smoke in the air, that COULD happen.
Rob will be the first to tell you the odds of things panning out like this are extremely low. But, it was an interesting take based on all the rumors for the Seahawks to get the players they have been linked to while also fulfilling the rumor that the Hawks are looking to trade down.
It’s just one of countless scenarios that could play out.
His first mock trading down from 5. He thought a trade up was more likely, but he says this is his best guess. Chances are he’s wrong… Just like every mock draft ever.
I get it. I thought he was saying this is what he thinks they will do. My bad. You’re right, it’s next to impossible to project esp with all the smokescreens, possible trades and all that. Certainly didn’t mean to be critical. Well, I hope his mock pans out, I would love to have those guys.
FWIW, I agree with everything you said. I would personally hate to risk not getting Richardson if he’s the target.
The old switcheroo:
1. Young
2. Anderson. This is the biggest duh that ever duh-ed.
3. To paraphrase DC legends Fugazi ” we ain’t buying what your selling,”…with tyree slipping (?) They get right and pick Paris Johnson.
4. Steichen sees a plus hurts athlete but in a better built herbert like frame. The future is now with Richardson.
5….Carter per Rob does go five overall and it is to the eagles.
6. Knee cap eaters need only apply. Witherspoon
7. Honestly don’t know don’t care.
8. Bijan Robinson.
9. See number 7 above.
10. The seahawks are in love with Richardson. Pete’s been working on his cart wheels. Schneider has been hitting some p90x so he looks at least mediocre with his shirt off next to Richardson….but the dream dies at four.
Then John Schneider remembers that before there was Stroud, Richardson, and the never was young….was the year before where there was pretty much only one qb who looked like a blend of the old Elway, Kelly, and the new cannon arm, cartoon moxy. And he Saunders to the phone to call in Will Levis.
Collier face….except this time it’s on about 95% of hawks YouTube, Twitter, etc.
John at the podium like he’s a new proud dad who won a Christmas ham at a bowling tourney on the same day.
“Anthony Richardson is going to go a lot higher than most people expect tonight and that’s not a guess.”
https://twitter.com/TesslerSports/status/1651624579008167939
This is the first time I say it, but PAY. THE. IRON. PRICE.
Not a great week to be a sports fan in Denver.
Not if Seattle has anything to say about it.
Wednesday: Kraken beat defending Cup champs Avalanche to go up 3-2 in the series
Thursday: Seahawks draft a franchise QB at #5 with Denver’s pick
Friday: Seahawks draft an impact pass rusher at #37 with Denver’s pick
Also Friday: Kraken beat Avs to seal their first ever playoff series win and send the Cup champs home
Would love this
Denver sports are a distant 2nd interest for me, but I can still speak for Denver fans when I say, they’re okay.
Avs dominated last year and raising the cup was awesome. Injuries hurt this years team and the West is wide open. Losing in the first round without key players is kind of a bummer, but no one underestimated the Kraken. I’m happy with either outcome obviously.
Nuggets still a 1 seed in the conf semifinals with reigning 2-time MVP in Jokic.
Broncos have sucked- but fans are happy to healthy a wealthy owner, new coach, and still have multiple franchise Super Bowl rings to count. They don’t really care what Seattle does with the picks, it’s not talked about. They care about seeing if Peyton can fix Russ.
Rockies are another story unfortunately- owner could care less about winning- but can enjoy a nice experience at the ballpark.
Michael Lombardi on VSiN – “Would the Seahawks trade down?”
Paraphrasing – The only way, if the QB’s go early, that John would trade down would probably be to Philly. If they wanted to come up and get Carter.
What a peg that would be from Rob.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shRH6bJrmCc&ab_channel=VSiN
Hard pass Rob,
This will not happen based on the FACT that Schneider has stated that they don’t have a leak and that they do not talk to the press about picks. Anyone claiming they do is not a credible source when it comes to the Seahawks.
Basing your information on people who claim to know something from anonymous sources is only damaging your credibility.
Go ahead and remove this, as it is contrary to your opinion, as you do with everyone else who doesn’t agree with you. This site is your world and myself and several other fans know that you are not open to different points of view. Just know you are losing readers by doing so.
Tell me you struggle with critical thinking without telling me struggle with critical thinking.
This is hillarious.
You realize that all mocks are nothing more than an educated guess right. All of them not some of them. Teams keeping thier picks private is of utmost importance to all organizations. No draft analyst or fan knows. Not my advice but if you don’t like the blog or Rob’s takes then don’t read it. Seems pretty simple.
It’s like the Carter pick either take him or you literally can not draft another defender….maybe ever.
We’re all stuck here because there is literally zero choice but to read Rob or never know anything about the draft.
I don’t think I could get 33% of these right.
Typically after the second or third pick, things go off the rails and all the other picks are wrong. Mock drafts are the most useless thing, beyond pure entertainment value.
You are reaching my guy.
It’s weird I’ve argued with Rob for almost 15 years and not been removed yet.
Maybe cause I don’t fire up the classic song ” I think we’re alone now,” but change the lyrics to:
I think we’re a troll now/
The clacking of my keys is the only sound….
Honestly hats off to everyone who disagrees with Rob. It’s great not being eight years old and getting to have your own opinions.
Have you tried maybe doing your own draft blog? YouTube channel? Anything?
Reading between the lines it looks like you are thinking the Seahawks are going to take the Elite talent that is Jalen Carter. Does everyone forget what Jodi Allen said when they traded Russel Wilson along with everything John has been saying about the types of players they are going to draft.
“… We look forward to welcoming our new players and to everyone being fully engaged while working our hardest to win every single day…”
Based on publicly available information on Carter, I have a hard time believing he is going to be pick based on everything that has been said by the team on wanting players that work hard.
Hater’s got to hate! This website about football not about what you just posted.
I guess you got rid of post for my comment above and that’s good because it had nothing about football it was just someone attacking you.
No, it’s all there
So Rob removes people who disagree? He’s not very good at it. Disagreements are on here a lot. Sounds like you have something stuck in your craw.
I think that yourself and these “several other fans” probably get headaches from critical thinking too often. They are the “readers” that can’t keep up with what Rob writes and then leave. And pout about it.
Maybe most people here agree because…they are able to get past these headaches and try out this critical thinking. Thinking for themselves, big picture plans for the team, open to other ideas and scenarios.
Sounds like someone magically got offended in the past and couldn’t move on….
Ha! If Rob removed everyone who disagreed with him, I would have been removed LONG ago. But, he doesn’t. And, as a very very long-time reader of this blog, I know Rob is more often right than wrong and his opinions are based on analysis. You can disagree with his analysis and his opinions on this blog. Especially if you have some data and some reasoning. Heck, Rob might even change his opinion. He originally mocked Jalen Carter to Seattle then changed it as more data became available. He thought trading down didn’t make sense a few weeks ago and guess what? We disagreed. He said he thought I was wrong and he told me why. He didn’t kick me out. And as more information has become available, Rob even changed his mind about the possibility of a trade down from 5 making sense.
Rob has had to deal with a lot of trolls over the years. He has more patience for it than I would. But saying Rob blocks anyone just for disagreeing with him is utter ridiculous nonsense.
I went back and forth with Rob on what the dynamics of a Russ chosen Seahawks would look like, and Rob conceded I had a point, despite the the fact I wasn’t even a regular contributor, or even made a rock solid argument. I also had made quite a few passive aggressive posts when Wilson wasn’t doing well, and never once had a post deleted. I’ve seen the posts that get deleted, and they’re always personal, and add NOTHING to the discourse. Ridiculous to suggest Rob is curating some sort of opinion bubble here.
Sounds like you’re saying he shouldn’t even try. Boy, that’d be a boring offseason.
We are having a major storm here in Pensacola. I had to take the bung out of the swimming pool so it wouldn’t flood because…
The rain is coming down like lies.
Hope we don’t lose power right before the draft.
Just watched a Will Anderson interview.
He said Pete Carrol was the coolest person he met ahead of the Draft: “All the teams were great and all the coaches were great. …It’s just like, it’s Pete Carroll.” Labeling the meeting as a “dream come true.”
It’s amazing that at over 70 Pete still has that kind of impact when he meets these young guys. Anthony Richardson said something very similar.
I love Richardson and Stroud but if Will Anderson is on the board I think the Hawks will sprint to the podium. I call Anderson the Kam Chancellor or outside linebackers. He will be great because he wills kr and he is leader of men like Kam by all accounts.
Very anxious and excited about tonight. Had a tough but successful day at the office, so it’s a perfect day to get a head free of work worries and think about the draft only. Gonna take a nap and turn on the draft, which will start at 03:00 am in my country. Bought a few cans of my favorite IPA. If they gonna trade down with Anthony Richardson still available, a beer won’t cut it.
Where are you Rokas ?
I’m in England. First pick is about 1am. I’m going to power nap shortly aswell.
Lithuania, Vilnius, cheers!
I’m going to miss all of the talking and debating we’ve had leading up to this draft, though I’m probably a little too obsessed with it as well. Here’s a crazy idea, idk if the NFL does anything like this…
What if:
A) the Hawks really love Carter 🤨
B) also,really want a QBOTF
C) and,know Philly REALLY wants Carter (pair w/J Davis)
So,
Draft Carter #5🤨, if QBOTF available at #10, trade Carter and #84 for #10 and #30.(points match up ok)
Draft QBOTF @ #10, have another 1st round pickt 😎😎😎
Win win, unless we’re stuck w/Carter
Enjoy draft Hawk fans, thx again Rob.
Jalen Carter: “Show me the money!”
Drew Rosenhaus: “Help me help you.”
Howie Roseman: “You had me at hello.”
Anthony Richardson: You want me to run your team – You Need me to run your team.
If anyone wants to watch some great draft prospect videos especially the qb’s, you should check out the youtube channel Raider Films. Im a seahawks fan, not a raiders fan but still great content. I have to say I would be heart broken if they took AR over stroud. AR is exciting but his misses are bad. He is like a pitcher that only throws heat and stroud has pin point accuracy and touch. AR giving me Kaepernick vibes. Besides Josh Allen, not too many inaccurate Qb’s become accurate in the NFL. If shoud is gone, I talked myself into Carter. He works hard on the field battling double teams and chasing down plays for a majority of the snaps I saw. I think the off field risks is worth the upside. Still Anderson>Carter for me. My wish list 1. Stroud 2. Anderson 3. Carter 4 Levis
Great work Rob! Been reading your site religiously since 2012 and like fine wine, your still getting better!
I think that first round would be a dream come true for me, especially trading down twice and nabbing the 3 extra day 2 picks. Seems improbable, but not impossible. We can dream!
Great work Rob.
Hard to expect you to read 300plus comments but just wanted send my appreciation for your commitment to put well-thought out research into this circus show that the month’s long prelude to the draft can become.
Keep up the good work.
#5 Carter(i know, I know)(Option B, Raiders move up for QB and Hawks select Witherspoon or AR)
#20(20s) Trade back Bills, Jax or Chiefs and select Will McDonald
#37 Mazi Smith
#52 Joe Tippman
Trade up from 83 for Skinner, Mingo if he lasts this long
I’d keep my eye on Drew Sanders or Campbell if the board plays in their favor
Game on!
This momentous weekend, all the doubts, hopes and fears will find their place, and we can relax with a bit closer to certainty.
I look forward to the horizontal board so that I can agonize that Rob has torpedoes my last mock with another. What will we do?
I used to be uncertain, now, I am not so sure.
Rob – I will be doing backflips (in my mind) if your mock becomes reality! Thanks for all the hard work. It’s provided hours of pleasure for me.
A couple of comments: Stroud vs. Richardson at #10. I can’t make up my mind which one I would like to see picked. I think the Seahawks were at their best when they had a QB (RW) who could keep the ball on the run option, presenting another threat to defenses. So, based on Richardson’s running ability and his size, I’ll agree with you and go Richardson.
Nolan Smith: The Seahawks love speed. I know that you think that Smith is a tweener, and I concur that he is. But, PC has said in the past that too much attention is sometimes given to what a guy can’t do, while he likes to think of what he can do to take advantage of a guy’s natural skills. With this in mind, I could see Smith as a surprise pick, playing the role of the Adams should he be “unavailable”. Trouble is, this sounds like a luxury pick so I think it’s unlikely in Rd.1 and I think Smith will go in Rd.1.
Had to suffer through back to back Thursdays as we crossed the international date line. Hoping for a QB