Prepare for surprises in the Super Bowl

Mike Vrabel mentioned last week he tries to calculate how many points he needs game-to-game. The Seahawks are averaging 31 points in their last five games, all against playoff teams. It’s hard to imagine Vrabel is plotting to keep things close and tight, even if that’s what ends up happening on the day.

The chances are he’ll think New England needs +30 points. In order to do that, he may have a few tricks up his sleeve.

For example, when he was coaching against the Titans against the Chiefs six years ago in the AFC Championship game, he had Ryan Tannehill throw a touchdown pass to offensive tackle Dennis Kelly, acting as an eligible receiver. He also had a big conversion on a fake punt, thrown by the punter.

In the prior game against the Ravens he had Derrick Henry throw a jump-pass touchdown in the red-zone.

If the Patriots are moving the ball freely they might not need to resort to this kind of thing. However, if the Seahawks start scoring, it may be something he turns to. The Eagles famously pulled off an upset against the Patriots eight years ago featuring the Philly special, winning 41-33. Vrabel might think he needs to be similarly aggressive and creative.

In a recent Athletic piece, he was ranked the third most successful coach when being aggressive on fourth down. Don’t be surprised if he consistently takes chances to keep possession of the football in an attempt to score the points he feels like he might need to win.

Klint Kubiak is very important

When you reflect on Seattle’s last few games, the play-calling has been a huge factor. The Seahawks moved the ball freely in their two games against the 49ers. They had to out-gun the Rams in the NFC Championship. Against the same opponent in week 16, they were able to find answers in the fourth quarter and overtime to create vital scoring opportunities.

Kubiak has found the right balance between run and pass, with enough aggression timed at the right moments. The Seahawks have done an excellent job assessing what is needed against their opponents. You could see their aggression ramped up against LA last time out, because they understood what kind of game it was. The play-calling on the final drive to seal it was ballsy when many coaches would’ve been conservative.

A lot of the focus will be on how Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels get on against Seattle’s defense but it could easily be Kubiak who is needed to produce another big performance, before his departure for the Raiders.

Fourth quarter pass rush is key

In so many of these Super Bowls, pressure late in the game is the deciding factor. Had the Seahawks not lost key personnel 11 years ago when protecting a 10-point lead, they would’ve had a great chance to win back-to-back Super Bowls and that play possibly would’ve never happens.

The likelihood is someone is going to have a big pass-rush moment in the final quarter — but who will it be?

Could it be an unlikely hero? Boye Mafe played very well against the Pats in week two of the 2024 season. He’s not had the contract year he would’ve hoped for. Can he produce a timely impactful moment to march into the open market with a major performance in the Super Bowl?

Speed off the edge has challenged this Pats O-line. Maybe Mafe can be the man to do the damage?

Odafe Oweh, another player with a similar skill-set to Mafe, had three sacks when the Pats beat the Chargers in the Wildcard round. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson had five sacks between them when they faced the Texans. Jonathan Cooper and Que Robinson combined for 2.5 as New England overcame Denver.

It might be that Seattle’s quickest EDGE has a day — even if he’s been surprisingly quiet for most of the season.

Maxx Crosby watch continues

Jay Glazer started doing the media rounds at the Super Bowl today and he was asked about Maxx Crosby’s future in the video below. Basically — he made it clear he will be traded at some point in the off-season with many teams seen as a fit:

He also said the eventual deal could be worth more than the Micah Parsons trade. You might scoff at that kind of price but remember this — Parsons is a handful. Crosby is not. He is what Mike Macdonald refers to as a ‘force multiplier’. The kind of person who lifts everyone else and sets a tone on and off the field.

Having Crosby types in Seattle’s locker-room is a big reason why they’re in the Super Bowl.

As we’ve discussed many times — the lack of quality in the draft will likely drive an active trade market this year. Good teams looking to take the next step will be prepared to be aggressive. I still believe that will include the Seahawks, regardless of what happens on Sunday.

They have some older defensive linemen on the roster and we don’t know if they’ll continue beyond the weekend. If you want to stay at the top, you’ll need the players that can keep you there. It’s bad enough that the Seahawks will need to replace an offensive coordinator and other members of staff. They can ill afford to drop their talent and experience levels on defense too.

The other thing to note is the Seahawks are officially picking either last or second-to-last in each round of this draft. With the intention, surely, of being competitive again next year — the actual stock used to make a deal is not quite as significant.

I think they’ll be in the mix for Crosby — but many others will be too.

Coaches moving on with Kubiak

Adam Schefter said on his podcast this week that a minimum of 1-3 coaches will depart Seattle with Klint Kubiak, when he moves to Las Vegas.

How long are the offensive staff members contracted for? Anyone out of contract is free to move, as will be coaches who are getting clear promotions. Anyone who is under contract can’t just make a lateral move and you’d imagine the Seahawks, facing a challenge to find replacement staff, might not be inclined to allow an exodus to happen.

Rick Dennison will almost certainly depart as he is especially connected to the Kubiak’s. John Benton, you’d assume, will also go — depending on his contract status and/or Seattle’s willingness to let him move on too.

The question then becomes who Kubiak wants to be his offensive coordinator. He is close to Andrew Janocko so does he make sure he comes with him via a promotion? Does he offer the job to Justin Outten? Do the Seahawks counter those offers by offering their OC vacancy to either?

I found it interesting that Janocko called plays in the final pre-season game at Green Bay. We’re all assuming Outten or Jake Peetz are likely internal candidates. Janocko might’ve been given that opportunity with the idea he could be a future internal replacement. He might understand Kubiak’s system better than anyone, given their time together in Minnesota, New Orleans and now Seattle. He’s also been Sam Darnold’s positional coach for the last few months.

It’s something to keep in mind.

Another name to throw into the mix is Jay Harbaugh. He was an offensive quality control coach for the Ravens and coached running backs and tight ends at Michigan. I’m not sure he’s completely tied to special teams in the NFL and he’s done such a good job there, perhaps he can pivot to offense?

Puck Sports Super Bowl preview

Finally, check out my conversation with Puck ahead of the big game this weekend…