Why won’t an early run on offensive linemen happen?
Every year we hear multiple people talk about the desperate need for good blockers. Every year we hear fans complain that their O-line isn’t good enough.
This year we have multiple highly explosive testers with good athleticism and tape. Why won’t they come off the board quickly? Why are they lasting in mock drafts, when flawed players at other positions (some non-premium) are going earlier?
This mock considers the possibility that offensive linemen go early and often. I have eight in the first round in total and four in the top-10.
For the Seahawks, you might see what I’ve done as a cop out given it’s only a first round projection. I want to highlight a possibility though regarding how limited the options might be at #32. I explain more at the end of the piece.
Please read the explanation for any pick you hate before shouting in the comments section. Full blurbs are available below the image:
#1 Las Vegas — Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana)
As I’ve noted before, I don’t think Mendoza warrants going first overall. He’s in this spot because he’s viewed as QB1 and he had a tremendously successful season with Indiana. Personally I think the Raiders should continue building their roster up, adding a veteran quarterback and they should avoid being a slave to trying to find a franchise saviour at QB just because they’re picking first overall.
#2 NY Jets — Arvell Reese (LB, Ohio State)
You can make a reasonable case for Reese being the best overall talent in the draft, in competition with Jeremiyah Love and Caleb Downs. He does have special qualities featuring both at linebacker and as an EDGE. Running a 4.46 with a 1.58 split also shows he has the quickness to be a threat wherever he lines up.
#3 Arizona — Francis Mauigoa (T/G, Miami)
The Cardinals need to build a foundation in the trenches. They have some pieces but not enough. Mauigoa is not going to let you down as a pick. He is a tone setter who could be very good at right tackle and exceptional at guard. You are not going to regret selecting him.
#4 Tennessee — David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech)
I’m not sold on Bailey. He doesn’t have a typical body type for a devastating EDGE, he really only had one big year and that was playing for Texas Tech’s attempt to create the ‘Harlem Globetrotters’ via NIL on defense. His change of direction worries me. But everyone else thinks he’s going to go this early.
#5 NY Giants — Vega Ioane (G, Penn State)
The Giants don’t have glaring needs at linebacker or safety yet they’re constantly connected to Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs. They do have bigger needs on the interior O-line and at cornerback. I think protecting Jaxson Dart has to be a priority. Some teams clearly think Ioane is the top offensive lineman in this draft so don’t be surprised if he gets top-10 consideration.
#6 Cleveland — Spencer Fano (T/G, Utah)
I don’t understand why Fano was suddenly appearing way down mock drafts. His testing profile is elite — in terms of athleticism and explosive traits (3.23 TEF). He has a shade under 33-inch arms but he was five times the player Will Campbell was on tape and he went in the top-five last year. Could the Browns try him at left tackle and if it doesn’t work, just shift him inside? Yes, they could. He has the foot-speed to do it.
#7 Washington — Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame)
Love could go earlier but this is the range where the quality backs tend to go these days. Make no mistake, he’s of the very best players at his position to enter the league in recent history. He is an outstanding talent.
#8 New Orleans — Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State)
I’m a huge fan of Downs’ and think he should go earlier than this but again, it’s a non-premium position and we don’t have any testing data. Eventually someone will snatch him off the board though, acknowledging the talent they’d be able to acquire by picking him.
#9 Kansas City — Monroe Freeling (T, Georgia)
The Chiefs love traits. They have consistently targeted players with excellent testing profiles. Freeling is incredibly explosive and big. They could start him at right tackle. They need to add to their O-line and the options might be thin at #29.
#10 Cincinnati — Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State)
I think his combine performance is being counted twice in a lot of recent mocks. I thought his tape was fine. Good not great. Yet his calling card was outstanding testing. I don’t see why, having merely confirmed he’s a great athlete, he was suddenly being bumped into the top-five. I don’t see a big impact player who will influence games enough to justify a top-10 pick. But some people really like him.
#11 Miami — Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)
He didn’t do any testing and there were already concerns about his speed. He also has short arms. I am dubious that by the end of this process, Delane will be CB1. I can see others usurping him. If the Dolphins do see him as CB1, they might kick-start their big rebuild by selecting him here.
#12 Dallas — Dillon Thieneman (S, Oregon)
The Cowboys would be in a tough spot. The top linebacker is gone, none of the pass-rushers are worth taking and CB1 has gone too. Jermod McCoy’s agent, I think, is the same agent they warred with over Micah Parsons. Thieneman is an incredible talent who had one of the best on-field combine performances I can recall in 18 years of writing this blog.
#13 LA Rams (v/ATL) — Makai Lemon (WR, USC)
Irrespective of his weird combine interviews, Lemon is a quality player. The Rams have dealt with the slightly odd Puka Nacua and might think drafting Lemon gives them some insurance if they can’t work out a new deal with Nacua. If they can get his contract sorted, they have a dynamic duo for the long-term if they pair him with Lemon.
#14 Baltimore — Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State)
I like Tate. His body control, ability to adjust to the ball and consistency are all really good. But he’s a 4.5 runner and he just doesn’t ‘wow’ you enough to think he’s a lock for the top-10. I do think there’s a chance he lasts into the teens and he might not be the first receiver taken.
#15 Tampa Bay — Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon)
This isn’t ideal for the Buccs. There are no obvious pass-rusher fits for Todd Bowles’ system. Rueben Bain and Keldric Faulk are not speed demon OLB’s. They might just pivot and take a weapon who will complement what they already have, then check-in on the pass-rush options in round two.
#16 NY Jets (v/IND) — Jermod McCoy (CB, Tennessee)
Ideally the Jets would get a receiever here but Jordyn Tyson’s injury flags are a growing concern. Jermod McCoy has his own flags but unlike Tyson, doesn’t appear to have suffered any recent setbacks. Some teams will see McCoy as CB1 and the Jets might think they’re getting a steal here.
#17 Detroit — Caleb Lomu (T, Utah)
For me, Lomu is the most natural left tackle in the draft. The player you can most confidently place at left tackle early in his career. He could go earlier than this for that reason — plus he’s very athletic and an explosive tester (3.08 TEF).
#18 Minnesota — Rueben Bain (DE, Miami)
Everyone seems to have forgotten that we’re only about two months removed from several reports noting that many teams had given Bain a day-two grade, with some thinking he had to kick inside. He’s since done no testing and had his short arms confirmed. Name me another pass-rusher with his profile who is excelling in the league? Yet we really think he’s going in the top-10? Not for me.
#19 Carolina — Avieon Terrell (CB, Clemson)
The Panthers aggressively addressed their needs in free agency and can now let the board come to them. Terrell is an excellent player who could start off working in the slot for Carolina. He can play outside though and he just has a very natural flow to his game, plus he’s more physical than you’d expect for his size.
#20 Dallas (v/GB) — Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama)
Ok, let’s consider why I’ve done this. In 2016 Tony Romo was approaching his 35th birthday. The Cowboys tried to trade up in round one to draft Paxton Lynch (the Broncos beat them to it). Instead, they drafted Dak Prescott. Romo suffered a compression fracture in his back months later, Prescott stole his job and the rest is history. Fast forward to today. Prescott turns 33 in July. He has an injury history. The Cowboys traded for Trey Lance and Joe Milton and appear to at least be entertaining the idea of finding someone who can potentially be the future. If they rate Simpson highly — and there’s plenty of buzz suggesting he will go in round one — they might draft him to plan ahead, allowing him to sit and learn for the next year or two. And if Prescott gets injured again, we might see Simpson elevated in the way Prescott was in 2016. There’s also no linebacker worth this pick and the depth at that position should present an attractive option in round three.
#21 Pittsburgh — Emmanuel Pregnon (G, Oregon)
I don’t think many of the national mock drafts appreciate how much the league values explosive traits when it comes to offensive linemen. Pregnon’s testing profile is historically outstanding (3.40 TEF). He also graded very highly and will provide a day-one starter who can perform quickly at a good level. These types of players do not last very long on draft day. Don’t be surprised if he goes a lot earlier than the projections are suggesting.
#22 LA Chargers — Kadyn Proctor (T/G, Alabama)
Proctor’s tape, when you really dig into it, is better than you’d think watching the odd Alabama game on TV. That said, his weight will be need to be monitored and there’s a strong chance his best position will be guard. Jim Harbaugh could slot him at guard and carry some insurance at tackle if the Chargers suffer more injury woe there. Proctor is tough to place — he could go earlier than this but it wouldn’t be a shock if he lasted into the 30’s either.
#23 Philadelphia — Blake Miller (T, Clemson)
Miller is so explosive and mobile it wouldn’t be a surprise if he goes earlier than this. As with Pregnon, there simply aren’t many players with his testing profile. In a league constantly desperate for good offensive linemen, this matters. His explosive testing mark is not a million miles away from Lane Johnson’s (3.44 TEF vs 3.36). Tackles like this go in round one.
#24 Cleveland (v/JAX) — Omar Cooper Jr (WR, Indiana)
They need a weapon. Cooper’s stock has steadily risen as the process has gone on. I wouldn’t take him this early but if Jordyn Tyson’s injury situation keeps him on the board, it could be that Cooper benefits the most.
#25 Chicago — Keldric Faulk (DE, Auburn)
There are lots of things to like about Faulk in terms of run defense, flashes of agility at his size and he’s said to be a culture-setter as a person. Yet his production was poor in college (11.6% win percentage) and he didn’t test at the combine aside from the jumps. That likely keeps him on the board into the 20’s.
#26 Buffalo — Cashius Howell (EDGE, Texas A&M)
He’s a relentless, intense pass rusher with good quickness and the ability to get around the edge. His win percentage is 19.8%. However, his short arms make him a little bit unorthodox and one-dimensional. He might need to be used as a specialist rusher. In that kind of role he can cause problems for opponents.
#27 San Francisco — Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State)
Eventually someone is going to say ‘OK — we’ll roll the dice on the medicals’. The 49ers, despite their long history with injuries recently, just signed Mike Evans and Christian Kirk. They don’t necessarily need a day-one impact receiver. They can afford to bring Tyson along slowly and if he gets healthy — they would have a chance to own a legit top-15 player in this class at a value range. Someone will take the gamble but it might be later in round one.
#28 Houston — Kayden McDonald (DT, Ohio State)
I wanted to see more at the combine because on tape you see flashes of athleticism that teased a great workout. Then he didn’t run or jump and looked sluggish during on-field drills. Even if that upside isn’t there, McDonald is going to be able to come in and secure your run-defense from the interior.
#29 Kansas City (v/LAR) — Chris Johnson (CB, San Diego State)
Johnson looks like a steady player. He will get beat downfield sometimes and the big cushions he gave up in college won’t necessarily work in the NFL. Even so, he’s smart and tough and will give you a competitive cornerback.
#30 Miami (v/DEN) — Max Iheanachor (T, Arizona State)
Iheanachor is explosive (3.12 TEF) and athletic and showed really well at the combine. If the Dolphins want to invest in the trenches late in the first round, this could be their man. He wouldn’t have to start right away and it would give them a chance to have young book-end tackles.
#31 New England — Akheem Mesidor (DE, Miami)
Having had surgery on both feet and given he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie, Mesidor might last. Yet his production (20.8% win percentage) and ability to start quickly could still make him appealing in round one. Don’t be surprised if he lasts into day two though.
#32 Las Vegas (v/SEA) — Chris Bell (WR, Louisville)
TRADE: Raiders trade up from #36 to #32
In this kind of scenario, I find it really hard to imagine who the heck the Seahawks would target. I’ll discuss this in more detail below. I don’t think it’ll be easy to trade down in this draft due to the overall lack of quality so this might be a token gesture move. Bell is recovering from a knee injury but has been increasingly touted as a possible late first round option. I do think his YAC ability and size could be very useful for a rookie QB.
Thoughts on the Seahawks
I still think there’s a chance the Seahawks trade their first round pick before the draft. The latest owners meeting is next weekend. All of the GM’s and coaches will be together in the same place.
Think back to 2019. Frank Clark was traded to the Chiefs two days before the draft. Deals can still happen late in the day. As we get closer to the draft, there will be enough information gathered to make a call. The Seahawks will know what their options are at #32 and they will be able to weigh-up trading options.
I cannot stress enough — if the board fell like this mock, the options are not good at #32. It’s a tremendous struggle to think what they’d do.
It’s why I found some of the reaction to the idea of trading for De’Von Achane so baffling. You will not be able to draft anyone who is 1/10th as talented as Achane, even if you need to give him a new contract within 12 months (or franchise tag him). It’d be a no-brainer to make that deal, which is now unlikely given the way Miami adjusted his contract (it would cost the Dolphins $2.5m in dead money to trade him and they’re already in the red when it comes to effective cap space).
I suspect the Seahawks would’ve been interested too. Yet when you trade a lesser player (Jaylen Waddle) for a first and a third round pick, it makes it difficult to work out a reasonable deal for one of the better playmakers in the NFL.
Could Maxx Crosby become available again? Possibly so — at least according to Tom Pelissero on Rich Eisen this week. Will other teams be able to comfortably outbid the Seahawks though?
I do think this could end up being a very similar draft to 2014 for the Seahawks. They moved around and filled some holes but no single player stuck with the team beyond Justin Britt. They’ll be able to fill some holes again but there might be a lot of sighing in the draft room over three days in April — unless they can find a trade partner beforehand.
Who could they consider if they’re forced to keep #32?
I think we need to be mindful of flexible players.
A year ago they made a big move for Nick Emmanwori. He’s been a great chess-piece for the Seahawks, giving them the flexibility to basically play a base defense that is very much like nickel.
Jalon Kilgore might be too similar to Emmanwori but they’re bringing him to Seattle for an official-30 visit. It’s not impossible he could be used as a safety with some versatility. Or, do they think his size (6-1, 210lbs) length (33 inch arms) and speed (4.40) make him a candidate to replace Riq Woolen? He doesn’t have the same quickness — so it’s not a direct comparison. Kilgore does look and play like a fit for ‘the Dark Side’ though.
The Seahawks were connected to interest in Jalon Walker a year ago if he fell into range. He was a hybrid player who played some linebacker yet could also rush.
Walker is 6-1, 243lbs and had only 32-inch arms. Cashius Howell is 6-2, 253lbs and has 30 1/4 inch arms. Both players have the kind of character fit that would be appealing to the Seahawks. If Howell lasts to #32, could he be considered?
It might also be worth considering Jaishawn Barham on day two. Like Walker, he was a linebacker/EDGE hybrid.
Chris Johnson’s grades in zone and his personality will no doubt appeal — and he has a visit planned for Seattle. Out of all of the cornerbacks in the draft, his 91.9 grade in zone coverage is the best. Hezekiah Masses (90.0) isn’t far behind, so he could be an alternative on day two if Johnson is off the board by Seattle’s pick.
Some people think Jadarian Price is worth a pick in the late first or early second round. Others think he’s firmly a late second rounder. I’ve gone back and forth on whether the Seahawks would think he’s worth a high pick.
I’m eager to see if Gennings Dunker does the bench press at his pro-day tomorrow so we can complete his TEF profile. He jumped a 32.5 inch vertical and a 9-0 broad. If he manages 27-reps or more on the bench press, he’ll score above a 3.00.
I think Emmanuel Pregnon’s testing profile demands he be considered. Is he a personality fit though? I think that remains to be seen. It’ll be interesting to see if they get him in for a visit.
I don’t know how the Seahawks will view Caleb Banks’ injury situation or his inconsistent effort. However, there are very few humans with his physical profile or talent. Being the size that he is and having persistent foot injuries is a big red flag. If you can find a level of comfort with everything, there could be an opportunity here.
I also think maybe I need to consider that the Seahawks like Noah Igbinoghene, Rodney Thomas II, D’Anthony Bell, Connor O’Toole, Maxen Hook and others enough to open up other possibilities. They can’t be forced into needs. Their ability to develop players and fill spots, particularly in the secondary, might be a factor.
It has felt like the Seahawks are open for business, it’s just that the right trade offer hasn’t come along so far. There’s still plenty of time for that to change.
