Some thoughts before we get into it…
When does the run on receivers start?
It’s not a great year for legit first round receivers but there’s depth in the middle rounds. If you believe you can get a quality wide out in rounds 2-4 (and acknowledge the value in round one isn’t great) — you’re going to wait. So when does the run start? Is it the early 20’s when Baltimore are on the clock? Will someone jump the line and take one even earlier? Or does it start in the late 20’s (just like the run on running backs a year ago)?
It’s difficult to project picks 20-30
For me there are 11-18 legit first round prospects in this class. I think there’s between 25-35 legit second rounders and possibly as many as 40-50 third rounders. What does this mean? When you get to picks 20-30, you’re probably going to select a player with a similar grade to the guy taken at #50. Anything could happen in the late first. It’s going to be unpredictable. And the teams picking in that range will be absolutely desperate to move down.
Seattle’s pick could still have some value
Why? The Ravens have a big need at receiver. It will help the Seahawks significantly if all of the receivers are still on the board by #21. Teams like Indianapolis, Green Bay and possibly the Chiefs (depending on what happens with Tyreek Hill) might want to get ahead of the Ravens.
The Giants won’t target a quarterback
That’s my prediction. I think in the next 12 months they will try to add a veteran quarterback. It could be Derek Carr. It could be Russell Wilson. It could be someone totally different. But I’m not sold on them spending a high pick on Dwayne Haskins to be the long term answer. Dave Gettleman usually sticks to upgrading the lines and this is a strong D-line class. Don’t be shocked if they avoid the QB’s and wait this out.
The mock in full
#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 San Francisco — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#3 New York Jets — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#4 Oakland — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#5 Denver (via TB) – Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#6 New York Giants — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#7 Jacksonville — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#8 Detroit — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#9 Buffalo — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#10 Tampa Bay (via DEN) – Devin White (LB, LSU)
#11 Cincinnati – Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#12 Green Bay — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#14 Atlanta — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#15 Washington — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#16 Carolina — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#17 New York Giants (via CLE) — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#18 Minnesota — Jonah Williams (C/G, Alabama)
#19 Tennessee — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
#20 Pittsburgh — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#21 Kansas City (via SEA) – Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#22 Baltimore — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#23 Houston — Noah Fant (TE, Iowa)
#24 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#25 Philadelphia — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#26 Indianapolis — Justin Layne (CB, Michigan State)
#27 Oakland – Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#28 LA Chargers — Josh Oliver (TE, San Jose State)
#29 Seattle (via KC) — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#30 Green Bay – Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
#31 LA Rams — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
#32 New England — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
Round two
#33 Arizona — Kaleb McGary (T, Washington)
#34 Indianapolis — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
#35 Oakland — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#36 San Francisco — Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
#37 New York Giants — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
#38 Jacksonville — Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)
#39 Tampa Bay — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
#40 Buffalo – D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#41 Denver — Dawson Knox (TE, Ole Miss)
#42 Cincinnati — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
#43 Detroit — Trayvon Mullen (CB, Clemson)
#44 Green Bay — Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma)
#45 Atlanta — Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College)
#46 Washington — Mack Wilson (LB, Alabama)
#47 Carolina — Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
#48 Miami — Dalton Risner (T, Kansas State)
#49 Cleveland — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
#50 Minnesota — Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M)
#51 Tennessee — Deandre Baker (CB, Georgia)
#52 Pittsburgh — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
#53 Philadelphia — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
#54 Houston — Isaiah Johnson (CB, Houston)
#55 Houston — Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida)
#56 New England — Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
#57 Philadelphia — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
#58 Dallas — Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
#59 Indianapolis — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#60 LA Chargers — Miles Boykin (WR, Notre Dame)
#61 Kansas City — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
#62 New Orleans — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
#63 Kansas City — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#64 New England — Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
The trades explained
Denver (#10) trades with Tampa Bay (#5) to select Drew Lock
I suspect some teams will grade Drew Lock as the #1 or #2 quarterback in this draft. Several reports have suggested John Elway is enamoured with Lock. The trade for Joe Flacco could be an attempt to recreate Kansas City’s plan (veteran — Alex Smith, rookie — Patrick Mahomes). If so, are they going to risk the Giants taking their guy at #6? They give the Buccs their 2020 first rounder.
Kansas City (#29) trades with Seattle (#21) to select Marquise Brown
The Chiefs have big needs on defense but they do own two second round picks and a third round pick. So they have the stock to address multiple needs. Tyreek Hill might be on the verge of destroying his career. The Chiefs can’t afford for Patrick Mahomes to lose a dynamic playmaker at receiver. The best case scenario might be to address this in the draft and use your two second round picks to go defense. The Seahawks get a third and a fifth round pick in return.
Thoughts on Seattle’s pick
The Seahawks have consistently done two things under Pete Carroll and John Schneider:
1. Go for high upside with their first pick, targeting exceptional traits
2. Identify the positional strength of a draft class and exploit it
They’re never ‘settling’ on average or even slightly above average athletes with their first pick. Size, speed, length, power, explosive qualities. You don’t need me to list the names. They take guys with massive potential so they can develop that talent and try to create greatness.
Last year was the ‘year of the running back’. Seattle traded into a range to get the one they wanted with their first pick. They did the same in 2014 (the year of the wide receiver) and spent their highest ever pick on a cornerback in 2017 (the year of the corner). 2016 was a strong year for first round offensive linemen (seven in round one). They spent their first pick on a right tackle.
If there’s a clear positional strength in a draft, the Seahawks usually tap into it.
The strength of the 2019 draft is the defensive line. I suspect the Seahawks will want to try and find a defensive lineman with the potential to be ‘great’ from this class. Someone with all the traits, the massive upside, the incredible athleticism.
That’s why I paired them with Trysten Hill. You might argue it’s too early and that nobody else is projecting this. Not many people projected Rashaad Penny in round one either. Or Bruce Irvin. Or any of the other ‘surprises’.
Smith is exactly the type of player they go for. In terms of his physical potential he’s a top-20 talent. There aren’t many players with his size, length, agility and explosive power. He is a top-tier athlete at defensive tackle.
Here’s a recap of his physical profile:
Height: 6-3
Weight: 308lbs
Arm length: 33.5 inches
Hands: 10 1/4
Forty: 5.04
10-yard: 1.74
Vertical: 35 inches
Broad: 9-7
Bench: 28 reps
Short shuttle: 4.38
Three cone: 7.70
He had similar explosive testing results to Ed Oliver despite carrying an extra 30lbs. He had the third fastest 10-yard split among defensive tackles. He meets Seattle’s threshold on arm length (+33 inches) and we know they love the short shuttle at defensive tackle (his 4.38 is an excellent time).
At the combine, he had arguably the best field drill performance at any position:
He’s a special athlete. The type that usually isn’t available beyond the top-20. He will be available beyond the top-20 for reasons we’ll come onto in a moment.
Furthermore, he was also the best player on UCF’s highly successful team. This has been a winning program for several years now. Hill is probably the most talented prospect they’ve had in that time. He’s a winner, as are the rest of the UCF clan. He has produced results in terms of individual production and team victories.
I wrote about Hill’s tape here.
So why isn’t he going to go very early then given this big build up?
Hill found himself in the doghouse at UCF with the coaches.
Three years ago, coaches on Scott Frost’s UCF staff told me @trystenhill9 was the best player on the team…AS A TRUE FRESHMAN! That team also had Shaquill and Shaquem, Tre’Quan Smith, and Jordan Akins. How did this kid not start for UCF this year?! Looks great at the Combine. pic.twitter.com/pmXNIi43iu
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 3, 2019
He played limited snaps and only started one game.
Here’s how he’s described by one anonymous NFC Scout:
“One thing that pops up is that he’s really opinionated about a lot of things. Big talker. He wasn’t always fun to coach so you have to keep that in mind if you bring him into your room.”
Personally, I think it all sounds a bit silly that Hill was essentially reduced to a rotational role because he’s ‘opinionated’. In UCF’s Championship game against Memphis he didn’t take the field until they were trailing 21-7. He then took over the game and UCF won.
He seems quite personable during interviews. A good, polite talker.
That said, we don’t know how disruptive he is (if at all) or why he was so ‘opinionated’. If he was speaking out because he wanted a bigger role in the defense you can understand why. He was by far their best player on either side of the ball.
You have to do your homework though. Seattle has two good sources in the Griffin brothers if they want to find out what he’s really like. I’ll be surprised if they don’t invite Hill for an official visit.
Pete Carroll is very comfortable around ‘opinionated’ players. The Seahawks did move some on a year ago but let’s not start comparing Trysten Hill to Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett. They still have plenty of opinionated players on the team. They’re not suddenly a team of choir boys just because a few of the big talkers have moved on.
If they want to land a defensive lineman from this great class with major upside and the potential for greatness — none of the big names are going to be available. They have to look elsewhere. Hill is an outstanding option who ticks plenty of boxes. I think the Seahawks will do plenty of work on him. They’ll try and work him out as a person. And he could easily be rated very highly on their board.
Don’t linger too much on media projections. This time last year Rashaad Penny was a second or third round prospect and Rasheem Green was touted by some as a first rounder. Think about what the Seahawks look for and keep an open mind.
Couldn’t they trade down again?
Possibly but I wanted to present a scenario where the Seahawks are unable to move down again. There’s not going to be a ton of desire to trade into the 20’s this year. The trade proposed (dealing with Kansas City) makes some sense given the Tyreek Hill situation. This projection only gives the Seahawks six picks (which is at least 1-2 short of where they ideally want to be). For that reason, they might be prepared to deal down from #29 for late round consideration to fill out their board.
Seahawks seven round projection
#29 (R1) — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#85 (R3) — Trevon Wesco (TE, West Virginia)
#93 (R3) — Amani Hooker (S, Iowa)
#125 (R4) — Gary Jennings (WR, West Virginia)
#160 (R5) — Justin Hollins (EDGE, Oregon)
#168 (R5) — Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)
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Rob, this is about conversetion on previous article…you said Britt more valuable than 3rd round pick 2020.
His cap hit for 2020 is 11.5mil and dead cap is 3mil. Do you think he is worth 11.5mil, and will be a seahawks after this season?
Imo, he will be cut after this season(8mil cap savings)…so in my mind it is 3rd or 4th round pick vs one more year of Britt…
I’m not remotely concerned by Britt’s cap hit in 2020. It’s the last year of his deal. An extension would easily lower the cap hit anyway.
I’m not sure why people are so eager to get rid of Justin Britt. He’s only 27 years old, he’s been a very competent center and he has a relationship/chemistry with the quarterback. It will cost a fortune in free agency to replace him and the alternative is to get a rookie in there (which, as we’ve learnt, comes with major growing pains).
Britt has been a consistently good player for Seattle and considering how much people complain about the O-line I’m shocked so many want to dump him just because the cap hit is so high in the final year of his deal. Re-sign him to an extension and lower the hit then.
Imagine having to replace Britt now! And all for a 2020 pick. You really want to roll with Pocic?? No thanks.
Agreed, he’s been great for us since sliding over to C. If he was 33 or 34 years old maybe it’d be something to talk about but like you said he’s 27. I’m becoming so puzzled over the calls to ship off our 25/26/27 year old players.
It’s okay to build the foundation of a team and open up the checkbook to do it! There’s no glory in having 10+ draft picks every year and $50m in cap space at all times if you’re just gonna end up going 7-9.
Plus — how many good center’s are there at the moment? How many people can name more than 5-6 in the league currently? Getting rid of an extremely competent center aged 27 just because he’s coming up on a year with a large cap hit would be madness. What’s more likely is they extend him and lower the hit.
I suspect Pocic might, like Britt, look much better at center than guard. If that were the case, the Hawks could get nearly equivalent production for a fraction of the price in 2020.
Or Pocic could be just as bad at center and we just created a massive problem for no reason
Right! But somebody out there might feel the same way about Pocic’s potential as a Center and so there might be some trade value.
Do you know of any teams that are badly in need of a center?
Getting something would be better than getting nothing if he is released. And who knows, maybe Pocic will have gotten stronger and better when OTA’s start.
The problem is I think ‘nothing’ might be Pocic’s value right now.
Oh. That’s a problem.
Great piece by the way, Rob. Hope you get a chance to check out TE Kahale Warring at some point. I think he could be an intriguing Day 3 pick.
Really enjoyed this article Rob some great info and fresh ideas to think about heading into team visit and Pro Day part of the draft season. Thanks
Thanks for reading & regularly contributing to the community, Trevor.
Terrific article with amazing insight—particularly analyzing how Seattle goes after the strength of a draft class with its first pick. Something I hadn’t considered, but which makes a ton of sense. Seattle should have some top rate info on UCF and Hill…I would not have a problem drafting him at 29. Great work.
Thanks Nick
Agree completely if they take him they would be comfortable with the background story. Rob made a great point comparing him to the Irvin and Penny picks. Elite potential and physical profile at a position with strength and depth in that draft class.
A rotation of Reed, Hill and Ford with Green moving inside occasionally on 3rd and long sounds pretty good to me.
If we didn’t have strong leadership on the defense, especially leadership in the d-line room, then I would be a bit nervous drafting Hill. IMO, Hill’s personality can be held in check and managed by Frank Clark and Jarran Reed. Reed is a natural leader and Clark has developed into a leader. Also, Ken Norton is highly respected defensive coach, by the players on our defense. It can be argued that with our incredible leadership on defense, the Seahawks may be the best team for Hill.
This is the primary reason we would be ok taking a chance on Hill as long as the twins give JS/PC an honest insight into his “opinions”. Seattle’s D requires that each player plays his role as described and if Hill can maintain his position (regardless of his opinion) and be a dynamo then we’ll be that much better off.
Another excellent article, Rob. Thanks!
I believe it’s what is called, “Letting the board come to them” type analogy. Correct me if I’m wrong.
It would be so funny if one of us were Pocic.
I don’t find it very funny at all… 👁👁
It’s not often I attach to a prospect, but I have definitely attached to Hill. Since I watched him at the combine, just screams future playmaker to me. So getting him would be a win for me. That being said, I also really like Samia and maclauren. I know in this scenario we couldn’t trade down again, but do you see any way the Texans would trade their 2 late 2nds? Idk the value chart on that, so maybe have to give a 5th. And with that, I know we see Samia, Maclauren, and Hill as great prospects, but do you see buzz about that around the league? Seems like all three have been consistently valued very low, is that just you being ahead of the curve? Or possibly how league FOs are valuing them. 2/3 (preferably Hill and one of the others) would be amazing in my book, along with hooker. Those 4 prospects are my favorite in this class as potential targets (adding in savage, but I also see him going earlier than we would take a safety, and have noticed some buzz about him).
I don’t think any team in their right mind would swap two second rounders for a pick in the 20’s this year. If Houston wants a player that badly they’ll take him at #23.
Rob, just wondering if the above scenario comes to fruition why you believe they would take Hill over Simmons who was still on the board, generally seen as a top 5 talent. Obviously he would miss a good chunk of the season if not all of it, is the reasoning purely that or are there other factors…
Because Simmons isn’t going to play in 2019 with a knee injury and there’s no precedent for the Seahawks picking an injury redshirt in the PCJS era.
Rob,
Not saying they’re the same player or have similar personalities, but the Malik pick has to give them some hesitation when considering a player who’s had trouble in a locker room. He has to be at least mentioned, no? Thanks for all your hard work.
I don’t think so George. Trysten Hill and Malik McDowell are nothing like each other in terms of personality. We can’t just compare any player with any question marks to Malik McDowell.
Great article Rob! I agree, Seattle won’t go Simmons…not as early as he’s still projected to go. They took a flyer on Jessie in the 5th from Bama years ago and it didn’t work out.
I do like your thoughts on Hill but I could see Seattle going Tillery with their first pick. His physical traits seem to hard to pass on and are very close to what McDowell was when they drafted him. Looking at Reed and Poona, Tillery seems to offer a different skill set Hill doesn’t. Will be interesting to see.
I love Hollins and hope Seattle drafts him..I hope he’s there in the 5th. Thanks again!
The problem with Tillery though is, for me, he’s not a full time defensive tackle. And he’s not a DE. He’s probably at his best as a five technique in a 3-4. So while he has the traits he’s not an obvious fit for Seattle.
He’s similar to McDowell in terms of measurements but they were actually very different players. McDowell was a big defensive end who can actually rush the arc like a 260lbs EDGE. But he was also being lined up by MSU at nose tackle and was handling double teams. He had the most ridiculous one-armed bull rush I’ve ever seen. Tillery is a very different prospect even though they share similar arm length and size.
Well thought out argument with rational reasoning. A+
Thanks Bob
Great mock Rob.
Taking Trysten Hill in the first would be very “Seahawks”.
Wesco is very interesting as a fullback/TE hybrid. Would love seeing him and Dissly on the field at the same time.
I watched some of Hooker and he seems like a very solid player.
One thing I’d say is I think we target runningback at some point.
Alex Barnes would be a great blocker and decent pass catcher to replace Mike Davis
With the news of Max Unger retirement people are saying Pocic could be a good match for the Saints. Pocic value is maybe late round pick, but how about strait trade for Trey Hendrickson both were earlier round picks from 2017 Seattle could use some depth at DE and Saints could use some depth at center could make some sense.
Doubt that Seattle would have ever traded Unger had we had any inkling that he would miss only a single game in the following 4 seasons combined. He seemed borderline ‘broken’ when that trade was made. Dude had a true Center brain. Made life easier for Russ in the early days when he was on the field.
A 2nd round pick who was lauded for his play as rookie suddenly regresses when we get a new line coach. Hint: It’s not the player that changed. Versatile offensive linemen with technique and athletic upside are valuable in this league so I hope they don’t let him go for a late round pick. There are multiple teams that are really hurting on the o-line such as Green Bay and Buffalo. He played as LSU as a center so it seems like the Saints would be a great fit… for a 3rd round pick.
If you were a GM of an NFL team – would you give up a 3rd round pick for Pocic after seeing him the first two years?
As an LSU die hard don’t underestimate a home team player. I’m not saying New Orleans would or wouldn’t over pay, but it’s like asking if Seattle would trade a higher pick just to go and get a Budda Baker. It shouldn’t really factor into the decision making. However, Pocic is still really popular down here. I hope our Seahawks hang onto him. I really am hoping for a year-3 breakout like we had with Justin Britt.
Nobody’s giving up a R3 for Pocic
I didn’t really think anybody would give up a 3rd rounder. That was just me being snarky about wasting another high pick on a non-performing lineman that will end up doing well somewhere else.
The Saints only have one pick before R5 this year, R2P62. Then they have R5, R6, R6, R7, R7.
There are several good, day 1 starting Centers available in this draft. They should have no difficulty getting one of them with their R2 pick rather than giving away a pick for Pocic.
On second thought, a R5 pick would make a lot of sense for both sides: them needing a center and getting a local kid without having to spend their only early pick, and us needing more draft picks this year.
I’m just not so sure PC/JS are as eager to ship out Pocic as some fans are. They value versatility a LOT on the OL and Britt took 3 years to turn the corner as well. Two more years for a cheap backup who was a R2 pick they really really wanted just two years ago, and who could still develop into a starter, as well as hedge in extension talks with Britt next year, might not be worth letting go of for just a R5 pick. They are happy with Hunt as a backup at C though, so it will be telling if any trade rumors do surface in the coming weeks.
We really haven’t had a chance to see Pocic at center, have we? I don’t remember ever seeing him there. Joey Hunt is a good, smart center and has played well at C when called upon but he is out of his league at guard…he is just too small…and he showed that last year filling in. I like Joey, a lot, but if Pocic is truly a C and can be that backup C and is also a better backup G then we need to keep him, at least for now. I have a feeling our OL is in better shape than we are giving it credit. I’m looking forward to seeing Lupati play and stay healthy…we could have a top 5 OL if everyone performs.
Good thought Sea Mode. I know their not getting a 3rd but a 5th… yeah. If I were the Saints I’d jump all over that. Pocic is a quality lineman in the wrong system for his strengths.
i find it kind of weird that Max retires at the same time when Payton to the cowboys is out there . Also Bridgewater signs instead of goin to miami. If Payton ends up with the Cowboys i wonder w hat compensation NO will be offered.
Good mock, and great points Rob. Trading down could be tough and they really NEED an impact DL.
I know you don’t want to hear it, and I agree with you, but this is why they are going to trade some 2020 stock for more 2019.
They aren’t going to get enough this year without it.
Mark it.
You’re right, I don’t want to hear it. You’re right in they have this track record now. I think there’s reasons for not doing it this year in comparison to the last three-ish years, but you never know… it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to go into next year without perhaps our 3rd rounder (since they have the ET comp. pick coming at the end of that round next year). Or maybe even our 2nd rounder, again, with them thinking they have two 3rd rounders. That’s frustrating math to me, but I’m not them either. If they did ask my input, they would have ended up with Derrick Morgan and Mike Iupati in their initial draft instead of Russell Okung and Earl Thomas. Then again, they’d have had TJ Watt instead of Malik McDowell, too. All we can do as fans is sit back and hope for the best (but so fun to speculate).
I will not be marking it.
I don’t think people realise the picks are a round weaker in value a year in advance.
Do people think they’re honestly going to trade a 2020 round four for a fifth or sixth this year? To make up picks!?!
No chance.
No, I don’t think that at all, I see them trading their third, possibly their second for a 3rd of 4th, or maybe a combo to get back into the second. You laid out the reasoning in your mock, they may not be able to get as many picks back as they would like.
Again, I don’t like it, but they have made multiple aggressive moves in the past, and if they are going to have 11 picks, they will feel good about spreading that out to this season, especially since they feel they would be able to regain their picks next year with their inevitable trade downs.
Sorry Gerry but that sounds horrible. Another year without a second or third rounder in 2020 simply to get a third or fourth this year!? It’s a hard pass and I don’t see it happening at all.
Agreed. I’m sick of going into drafts without as much picks than we should have. I want to have all seven all the time or be the team that has more than seven. And just because we know we’re going to have more than our seven next year (more like 11), I don’t want to trade some for the sake of this year. Long term thinking is always the best and most beneficial.
Remember when we traded an early 2nd round pick to the Broncos for their 1st the following year. Broncos got a loser CB and we got ET.
I’m sick of being on the opposite end of it like the QJeff draft day deal a few years ago. We traded a 4th round pick (the following year) for a 5th round pick that year. Just so stupid. Before anyone says QJeff is decent – don’t forget the Seahawks cut him. Then the Rams picked him up and cut him. Sure, he’s back.
Hell, if we could trade our 3rd round pick this year for a 2nd round pick next year – I’d do it. No way I’d trade our 2nd next year for an extra 3rd this year though.
Hard pass for me too!
I just see Pete getting all “hormonal” and doing it, then them talking themselves into it being ok because they can always recoup picks.
I’m all about having 11 picks, and not trading down from our first pick again.
It’s not difficult to envision a scenario where a player they really want falls to the late 2nd / early 3rd. And the FO deals their third next year to get him.
Let’s also assume we trade down into the second round and pick up a third round pick in the process.
We’d then pick high in the second round, late second / early third, and the third picked up from trading down.
Allowing for picking up quality young talent at DL, WR/TE, possibly OL, possibly S. Three of four positions of need.
And we’d still have ~10 picks next year. This FO expects to contend now. I don’t think dealing a third will stop them from getting a player they really want.
I just hope they’ve gotten over the hubris of thinking they can take another higher risk / red flags type player. They really need to do their due diligence and homework if the trade up scenario is the route they choose.
Rob just a thought about Trysten, you say an NFL scout said, “One thing that pops up is that he’s really opinionated about a lot of things. Big talker. He wasn’t always fun to coach…” Sounds to me like he may have ADHD.
I had ADHD as a “child,” adult ADHD as an “adult” and now as a 72 year old senior I’ve got “very, very, oldsters ADHD.”
If I’m right, the “H” (hyperactivity) in ADHD will be a real positive. I’m a nuisance and sometimes a terror – but when I wanna rock I rock. Lets hope this guy wants to rock!
This made me laugh – thanks for the insight Roger!
If we sign Justin Houston and draft Trysten Hill, Terry McLaurin and a legit NCB are we a legit superbowl contender this year? I think the answer would be closer to yes than no. Our biggest/only weakness would be a young secondary.
This team is already way better than people think.
We are definitely on the right track. In order to have a shot at the Super Bowl you pretty much have to get one of those top 2 seeds. To do that we need to stop this trend we’ve had a few years running of starting off slow in September only to pick up in November and December. I think countering this comes from a very talented roster and a team that can execute their identity from the start. We got back to our identity last season, we just need to add to the depth of talent now. This draft and next years are going to really determine if we’re a good playoff caliber team or a great super bowl caliber team.
Do we have the cap space for Houston?!
I’m not sure. He could get $10M+ per year. I don’t see that though, I think he eventually can be had for 2 years and 15M frontloaded with high guarantees and incentives for the 2nd year, maybe pushing it towards 18M.
I have no idea if we have that space or not, or if PCJS would go for it. It likely depends on whether Clark, Reed and Wagner are in their plans. Even then I’m not sure they want to spend the money on a 30 year old pass rusher as opposed to just paying Reed or Clark who are 5 years younger.
It’s probably not likely.
Coleslaw I would love those moves and picks if JS could pull it off! I agree if he could add Houston and Hill to the DL and McLaurin at WR this roster would look pretty solid and legit can contender.
They seem like realistic additions IMO.
Pretty sure we cannot sign Houston for 10+ mil with limited CAP space and at least 4, but potentially 6 (if we wanna keep Vannett and/or Kendricks) high priority UFAs next year.
And both Trysten and McLaurin will be 1st or 2nd round picks most likely. This could only happen by lowering some CAP hits this year with signing extensions quick with BWagz and Clark (Houston). Trading back to early second round (between 33-36th picks) and doing that picking up an early 3rd. If Hill would fall hard because of the locker room stuff and McLaurin would be up on the board early second round. This might be able to happen. But too many ifs.
I would love having Campbell, Deebo or McLaurin. They could function as #3 WRs for now but also they could be groomed to be the successor of Baldwin and be #1 or #2 WRs (depending on how Lockett will do)
Fantastic looking draft and thoroughly well reasoned, Rod. I gotta admit, I’m really starting to warm up to the idea of them grabbing Trysten Hill. Makes so much sense on a lot of levels, especially if the Griffins sign off on him.
On the RW to NYG front, I believe their head coach was pretty vocal recently about his preference for having a tall quarterback when asked about Murray. Ever since he said that, it pretty much shut down the idea I had that they would likely make a deal for RW. That said, NO and LAC also have QBs who aren’t getting any younger and could be in the market sooner than later, and presently Miami ain’t got diddly.
Well, Miami did just sign Fitzmagic! (sorry, couldn’t resist 🙂 )
Nice work and mock Rob. I think they will manage to trade down again with the likes of Grier, Jones, Metcalf, scheduled to be around, as well as some really nice Dline prospects. A Qb needy team is always willing to trade up if they think they have a shot at their guy. Tamps, New England, Giants, Titans, Saints, Washington, Jacksonville, Vikings, Cardinals, really half the league either doesn’t have a Franchise QB, or have an aging one and could use a successor, or have a QB that wants more than he’s worth. Unless Wilson resigns before the draft, I’d put us right in that group and might feel better if we grabbed a Grier if we can’t manage to parlay our numbers 1 into two number twos and change. I’d love to see a Bruce Irvin back for a year personally (if the price was right) to help Clark out and would consider free agency a win although there’s this Eric Berry guy out there who might be affordable on a prove it one year rental. This is a really fun looking draft class at DB and Dline and hope we find a way to load up on 3-5 round picks and exploits it. I think it’s just ridiculous how much QBs make, and don’t believe they can possibly be good enough anymore to warrant that type of pay. I hope the CBA puts some type of cap on how much the top payed player on your team in relation to let’s say how much the tenth highest paid player on you team makes. More guys should be making 10 million a year, with truly elite players getting 20 million, and could if the market wasn’t screwing every other position on the field. PS the ravens got robbed by Thomas, and that one is going to bite them hard in the end, but with a Qb on a Rookie deal still should be Ok for a year or two.
All makes sense. Still, I wonder if we can’t just grab a run-stuffer DT in FA and look to get a little more dynamic on offense. I’m not one to want WR early, but I am now. I’d like us to slide back (not too far, because I think he’ll be no worse than the 3rd WR taken) and grab Hakeem Butler from Iowa St. I’m sold. Fits those “exceptional traits” the Seahawks look for, and might finally give us the big receiver Pete seems to want.
Hakeem Butler. All day long. And trust Pete to find us a S, CB and DE later in the draft.
Agree that we need to find a WR pretty early. If teams can slow down the run game then it forces Wilson to throw to… who?
If Baldwin is not healthy, Lockett is the only proven threat. I don’t care about big or small as much as I care about sudden, fast, good route runner, able to get separation quickly.
Seattle did fine in 2013 without a bunch of stars at WR. They will take one and it could be early but it doesn’t need to be. Not in this class.
I say “stock up” on picks. We do the most damage towards the back of drafts. This organization can “coach up” like a son of gun! We should be trying acquire more picks and watch Schneider do what he does best. “Let that dog hunt”!
No thanks on Butler. Don’t see him even going in R2 let alone as Seattle’s first pick.
Really don’t get the hype.
Check his mockdraftable page. Fantastic athlete at his size, wins contested catches easily, strong, not stiff for his size. I’d take him as WR1, but each person has their likes. It might seem lazy, but to me he’s the Amari Cooper to Metcalf’s Kevin White. And he’s a better comp to Mike Evans than Metcalf.
Last time I checked a mock draftable page doesn’t determine success.
Too many drops, doesn’t separate, lousy effort at the combine.
Hakeem Butler mailed in the drills but his testing numbers were nowhere near lousy. He’s a rare athlete with mouth watering plays on tape.
I was referring to the drills
Off topic a little but an interesting fact. I work with a guy who does Mr Olympia competitions and I asked him his high in reps for 225 since the recent NFL combine does that event. He said his high was 128 reps (wtf…lol). Said he could do 315 40 times.
Lies haha I recall reading in the past when I was training, Arnold would do around 60+ and Ronnie Coleman did 70+. No way some dude is getting 120+.
If he has a shorter arm length, then it is possible. But he also practices and most likely has almost flawless technique, unlike football lineman who are just trying to put up 30+ and call it a day. People do amazing physical things all the time. I think it is more incredible that a guy at 350lbs can run around a 5.0 40!
Great stuff, Rob. Great. As per usual.
Another player that I could see higher on Seattle’s boards than others is still Charles Omenihu. He has an insane frame and upside and I could see him being a guy the ‘Hawks rate higher than “experts” or other teams.
Me too. But he is type of prospect similar to Green. He is 5tech and there are allready QJeff, Green and Nazair at that position.
The only thing about him is he tests well in some areas but in others he was pretty meh — which funnily enough mirrors his tape.
Rob (and the gang),
Where do you think the drop offs for each position are in the draft?
For example, 1st 3 rounds have legit DL prospects…. 1st 2 rounds have legit TE prospects .. etc ???
I will do an article on this soon
Basically, where I think you should look to find the good ones before a cliff at each position:
QB: R1
WR: R2-R4
RB: R3
TE: R1-R5
OT: R1, R4-R5 (projects w/traits)
OG: R2-R4
OC: R2
DT: R1-R3, R5
EDGE: R1, R3
LB: R1
CB: R3-R5
S: R2-R3
TE and DT are the deepest positions, followed by WR, which is less top-heavy but has something for everyone’s taste in the middle rounds. Interior OL is sneakily good this year too; no Quenton Nelson, but a lot of guys who will be starters for a long time.
Every other position has pretty marked cliffs as I see it at the moment. RB looks the worst, CB is bad but at least they are fast, and if you need a LB after R1 you should pretty much just go throw yourself off that cliff…
The 5th-year option is valued al lot more by other teams than it seems PCJS do. So pick 29 should be attractive to some teams picking in the first half of R2. I am convinced Hill will be there at 35, 40, even 50. I also think JS, who waited for R3 to pick Russell, especially this year having only 4 picks, will “risk” losing his guys.
They didn’t risk losing Penny a year ago at 27
They had more than 4 picks though.
And probably wanted their RB badly. Hopefully they can go BPA in this draft.
They still didn’t have many picks.
Another thought on trading down.
JS used to try to trade down in small steps in order to feel more comfortable at “controlling” his board. Obviously that strategy makes it a lot more difficult to find the “right” trades.
With no apparent glaring need and just 4 picks at their disposal this year’s approach could be different. And should open up a lot of trade opportunities that were off limits in past years.
I think we generally underestimate how hard it is to find a partner to trade down. Most of the time, JS is taking the only offer he gets. It’s not like he’s got 5-6 trade offers (or even more than one offer) to choose from at any given point in the draft.
It’s fine for us as draft fans to project trades that could make some sense for other teams, but from there to that team actually being willing to do it is an entirely different story with tons of factors in play.
Great point SeaMode! We all talk like oh we will just trade down and get these certain picks but it certainly is not that easy. JS has done a great job of this in the past and may pull it off again this year but it is far from a certainty at least wiTh regards to gettting any real value.
What if we are on the clock at 21 and no one calls?
At the very least teams will know we are desperate to trade down and try to take advantage of this. Really looking forward to future drafts when we have the capital to be the team with leverage instead of the other way around.
Someone will call. Even if they trade down for a sixth. They won’t pick at 21.
Yeah, but depending on the other pick the other team would give up it could be an awful trade.
I would be furious if JS would trade down from 1/21 to 1/31 and only get a 6th round for it.
But to be honest, moving down 2-3 spots and only getting a 6th in return is still a bit of a steal.
I doubt JS would just trade down for the sake of it and getting back only +1 late pick.
If the market is cold for 1/21, I think he might sweeten the deal with something like:
1/21 and next year 3rd for a late 1st round, 4th, 5th, 6th and next year’s 4th and 6th
Or 1st and 3rd round picks for the Texans two second and their 6th and 7th (and he’d probably trade one of the 2nd for a 3rd and 5th)
I’m never suggested they would trade down that far (21-31) for a sixth round pick.
I said they might trade down a second time, a handful of spots, for something like a sixth.
People should forget about Houston’s two second rounders. Aint happening.
Actually my point was that it could be easier in this draft because they do not want that one guy like Penny bit rather have a more BPA approch this year. Obviously I don’t what opportunities there will be. Last year they probably feared to trade down to let’s say 40 without losing out on Penny.
Rob, I think this might end up being the closest Seahawks mock when all is said and done. Well done.
Not find a partner to move down even further and just forget about what everyone else thinks and grab the guy they want. (then of course say in the press conference that they would have taken him at 21 anyways if they had to…😉)
Nice read as always. I would love to see Wesco drafted, but do you really see him going as early as the 3rd round?
I think when the rush on TE’s starts they’ll fly off the board
Thanks. Do you think adding a player like Wesco would mean that they wont be going after a fullback? You have been writing about Ingold, another player i like, but one probably exlcudes the other? Or what do you think?
It’d give them options. I prefer Wesco as a Y-TE and sixth linemen
Rob/all-
Do you believe TE is a higher priority at that R3 selection spot than one of the premium WRs that we have been discussing?
I wonder about the impact on the offense of Wesco vs McLaurin, for example.
This is going to be a very exciting draft. Getting fired up for it.
None of the premium WR’s were there in R3
Gotcha . . . Thanks!!
I feel getting a premium WR (to me that’s Campbell, McLaurin and Deebo in this class) is only a good strategy if they don’t plan with Doug after 2020 (he’ll be UFA 2021). Then the WR could be #3 this year and next year, could learn a lot from Doug, be eased into the system. Then after 2021, he could be #1 or #2 WR next to Lockett. If they plan on extending Baldwin this would be an overpriced pick. This is a run first team. They use Fant a lot which means only 4 players at other position than QB, OL. They will use at least one RB a lot. That leaves us with 3 players. They like a lead blocker type of guy who is usually a FB, or Y-TE or sometimes another RB. Which leaves us with 2 players. So the 3rd WR won’t play as much as other positions. And even on passing downs, they might put up an RB and 2 TE which allows only 2 WR on the field.
With injury concerns, depth, another playmaker, being Baldwin’s successor, I can see them picking a WR late 1st or early 2nd round. But only if they have a plan that this guy will be the #2 WR after 1-2 years.
They’ll probably select a WR even as a depth/rotational guy later. But TE has a better value and it is a bigger need (Dissly post-injury, Dickson veteran stopgap, Vannett will probably go next year).
So for me:
Get one of the best WRs with their first pick. Or get one in the 4th or later rounds.
TE will probably come between 3rd and 5th rounds either way
Rob you are the first person I have seen mock Justin Layne in Rd #1. I think you are dead on and I think that team Indy is the one that could take him. I went back to check him out after the combine and he is CB #1 on my board followed closely by Byron Murphy. Layne is the complete package physically and should turn into a shut down CB in a year or two. Would love to see what a coach like Pete could do with him.
I know stats can be misleading but I thought this was interesting. In todays NFL CB need to be long, fast and explosive.
Since 2000 only 4 combine participating corners stood at 6010+ with 33-inch arms, a 4.50 or faster 40, and an 11-foot broad jump.
1) Justin Layne (CB / Mich St.)
2) Jalen Ramsey (2x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)
3) Xavier Rhodes (2x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)
4) Antonio Cromartie (4x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)
Isiah Johnson (CB / Hous) Also matched these #s this year and had a slightly better short shuttle and 3 cone than Layne. I have not watched any tape on Johnson yet but the physical profile screams Seahawk.
The Hawks met with Johnson at the Ssenior Bowl and if they decide to take a CB he could very well be a target. He would be the best developmental CB they have had based on his testing #s.
6-2 /208 lbs
33” Arms
4.40 40yd
36.5 vert
11.1 yd Broad
4.06 short Shuttle
6.81 3 Cone
Those are elite testing #s across the board.
Really going to do a deep dive on him this week. Would love to hear if anyone has watched much of him and their thoughts.
I think Matty Brown, who writes for fieldgulls (and is specialist for DB’s)is realy high on him.
Isaiah will go too early. Probably a second round guy because of this weak CB class.
He’s really Seahawks-y, but I doubt we’ll select a CB earlier than 4th round (we could select a safety in the 3rd and use him as CB)
With this Mock rob has done Indy would be killing it again.
Layne
Simmons
Mclaurin
That team really has set itself up nicely going forward. Funny as soon as they got rid of Gregson things went from grim to really good quickly. An A+ draft like they had last year can do that.
Who is Layne? I’ve never heard of him. Is he good?
I like him a lot. Still needs technique refinement but a great athlete who is long and uses it to his advantage. Tons of upside.
Is he the former WR convert? I’ve liked what little I’ve seen. Lot of refinement needed as you point out
I read somewhere he has only played CB for 1 or 2 years, started out as WR and was converted over the CB. I thought he was 6’3″, but only about 180 lbs? is this accurate?
Michael Kist
@MichaelKistNFL
Per the @SportsInfo_SIS Rookie Handbook:
RB YPC After Contact (out of 24)
1. Darrell Henderson (6.0)
2. Elijah Holyfield (4.3)
3. Devine Ozigbo (4.1)
RB Positive Zone Play % Leaders (out of 24)
1. Josh Jacobs (55.7%)
2. Devine Ozigbo (54.3%)
3. Damien Harris (52.0%)
10:37 AM – 17 Mar 2019
If the Hawks take an RB this draft I think it will be Ozigbo.
“East Carolina defensive end Nate Harvey, who had 14.5 sacks last season and is the reigning American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year, has lost an eligibility appeal with the NCAA.”
It appears that he is a late round prospect (?) should we keep an eye on this guy for the Hawks?
From the Raleigh News, “He led the nation with 25.5 sacks, setting an AAC season record.” He’s only 6’1″, 225 pounds and made his mark at a small school and there’s nothing I can find regarding his athletic profile. That said 25.5 sacks kinda says a man among boys. He also hasn’t had the advantage of a power conference weight room, training table, or coaching so you’d think there would be some upside. I don’t know if he’ll have pro day or just some private workouts. It’ll be interesting to see how it turns out.
He might not be eligible for the formal draft, but could be a target in the supplemental draft.
Rob…
We all know by now (thanks to your admirable work) that PCJS takes the calculated risk to move back to add draft capital, but stays in R1 (5th-year option) and takes Will Grier with P1.
…then
R3: T. Hill
R3: M. Tell
R4: T Wesco
R5: D. Thomas
FA: B. Irvin
Forfeit the WR this year…
Hill will be gone at R3.
I actually disagree that he will for sure be gone. A lot of it is going to have to do with interviews with Hill and also with his coaching staff. And he is going to have to go to a team that will fit his personality. I think maybe he might be a type A, that thinks really highly of himself and what he brings to the table, which the incoming coaching staff didn’t gel with. Reasons I believe the Hawks are a great fit is because (1) we are an environment that provides for these type of personalities, alphas that have something to prove and know their worth (2) we have 2 former teammates of his, and not only just teammates, but teammates that played on the same side of the ball, leaders, and with the same coaching staff. That being said, I have looked back at both Griffens social media, and they have posted with a lot of UCF teammates. Not once was Hill in any of them. Hill and the Griffens don’t follow each other on social media. Makes me wonder if he was outsider on his team. So I think interviews are going to be huge for him and there is no telling what his range is. I do trust Rob a lot, and his ability to identify players before the rest of media. Hill is going to be interesting to monitor.
This mock has Byron Murphy still available into the second round. While I doubt the Hawks will have a shot at him he would make a great nickel back and provide the ball hawking, turnover machine that Pete loves.
The Seahawks aren’t taking a corner who runs a 4.55 with 30 inch arms with a high pick.
They’ve got to replace Coleman at a position which isn’t subject to the arm threshold and has become more and more important. He’s challenge is size but he’s only 21 so he’ll likely add some bulk. It’s his feel for the game that make Murphy special. If you find a guy with superior instincts that can play underneath and generate turnovers why wouldn’t you draft that guy?
I like Murphy a lot but we know the Seahawks aren’t taking a 4.55 corner with their first pick.
It’s as clear as night following day.
They’ll fill the Coleman need but not in this way.
That said you’re right… it doesn’t fit the Hawks MO.
If I remember right, I think that Burr-Kirven had a better 40 time than that, and he’s a LB.
Hang on, I just noticed you have DK Metcalf all the way down at 40, below Harry? Hard to see that.
Well I’ll keep saying it and hopefully people will acknowledge this eventually:
Reasons why D.K. Metcalf will go early…
1. He ran a 4.33 at 228lbs.
Reasons why D.K. Metcalf will last as long as I’m projecting…
1. He’s too big and tightly built
2. He has zero agility as emphasised by his horrendous three cone and 4.50 short shuttle (which would be decent for a 310lbs defensive tackle)
3. This creates issues with separation when he has to work inside or win with a quick release and you see this time and time again on tape
4. He basically ran go-routes in college and that’s it, so route development will take a long time
5. Too many concentration drops
6. He suffered a career-threatening neck injury in 2018, almost had to give up playing and even though a doctor has now cleared him there has to be serious question marks about the longevity of his career (he hasn’t played a snap since he hurt the neck — what happens when he gets belted for the first time in the NFL?)
As soon as you step back from…. ‘big man ran fast’… there are plenty of reasons why he will last.
Hey man, I get you. All of the above is true which is why the top 10 hype was always over doing it. I just have a really hard time thinking that no team would bite on his potential any earlier than pick 40. Especially with a team drafting N’Keal Harry, a prospect with all the same separation issues, earlier on in the draft.
I went with Harry to NYG simply based on the receivers Gettleman has taken in the past. I do think Metcalf’s injury will be a bigger factor with teams than the media is discussing.
Rob: Excellent points on Metcalf. I would be inclined to stay away from Metcalf.
So Rob what you’ve just pointed out is that Metcalf is a super fast runner that’s a crappy receiver. Obviously he’s going to Oakland with their first pick. LOL
I hope someone bites on the Metcalf bait early. That’s just means that if the Hawks decide to take a WR early they’ll have better options, like maybe Campbell or McLaurin 😀 😀
Preston Williams. I would be willing to take a chance on Williams if he was still on the board in the 4th round. That’s provided John Schneider is able to take his first round pick and move down. John Schneider and Pete Carroll have shown that they can find and develope 6’3 defensive backs in the fifth round.
Preston Williams is going to go undrafted.
Don’t you think one team would take him in the 7th just to secure him instead of hoping he signs in UDFA? Hes going to be the top UDFA if he goes undrafted.
Nah.
The pro-day sealed the deal. Absolutely dreadful performance. And then he acted like he’d just had the perfect display, calling it an A+ workout.
Rob. 4th round might be high. I see where Tony Pauline gave Williams a 6th round grade. Mel Kiper gave Williams a 2nd round grade. We will see what happens.
He will go undrafted.
Kiper is, not unfairly, grading him based on what he showed at Colorado State. Kiper is not saying he will go that early.
He had a rubbish pro-day. He has a long list of off-field concerns. He’s going undrafted.
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1107366826273579009?s=20
Montez Sweat heart condition found at combine.
IDK if Montez Sweat’s is as serious, but Maurice Hurst slid on draft day due a heart condition. Curious to see if/how NFL teams react to this.
The big difference is Hurst was immediately held out at the combine and prevented from working out when they discovered his heart condition. Sweat wasn’t. Which suggests it’s not as serious.
Wow, just wow!
“Rashan Gary (6’4 3/8″, 277 lbs) ran a 4.58 40-yard dash, fastest by any player to weigh 275+ pounds since Combine results became official in 2003. Gary also ranked in the top 7 among DE in the vertical jump (38″) and broad jump (10’0″).”
He worked out with the LBs rather than DL
F-R-E-A-K
I kind of like this guy….. a lot.
I don’t think Gary will be mad on draft night…or have to wait too long.
Just wondering — sorry if somebody asked this already — what is Trysten Hill’s TEF and wTEF?
His TEF score is 3.37 and his weighted TEF is 103.8.
Thanks man, could you put those numbers in context with other recent draftees/players?
I know TEF was created to look for elite athleticism in Offensive Lineman (vis a vis Tom Cable’s statements), which added up to a value of 3.00+, but what would an elite “threshold” for TEF and wTEF look like for a 3-Tech? (I assume he’s a 3-Tech?). Obviously the numbers are more impressive for defense, so 3.00 TEF isn’t as insightful.
We wouldn’t know the subjective preference of the hypothetical coach in that equation, but I bet we would see the athletic tiers of outstanding players at the Pro level.
Would be interesting what you think an elite TEF and wTEF score for each DL position might be, based on rarity.
Here are the 30 most explosive defensive linemen from 2016-19:
Myles Garrett — 4.21
Ben Banogu — 4.05
Haason Reddick — 3.93
Solomon Thomas — 3.83
Ed Oliver — 3.72
Jordan Willis — 3.70
Jordan Brailford — 3.61
Ife Odenigbo — 3.61
Taven Bryan — 3.58
Ade Aruna — 3.57
Derek Rivers — 3.57
Rashan Gary — 3.56
Carl Lawson — 3.54
Dean Lowry — 3.54
Sheldon Rankins — 3.52
Montez Sweat — 3.49
Porter Gustin — 3.48
Kylie Fitts — 3.47
Robert Nkemdiche — 3.47
Bradley Chubb — 3.46
Harrison Phillips — 3.46
Noah Spence — 3.46
Renell Wren — 3.45
Yannick Ngakoue — 3.44
Marcus Davenport — 3.41
Jamal Davis — 3.40
Kevin Givens — 3.39
Harold Landry — 3.39
Trysten Hill — 3.37
Nick Bosa — 3.36
Awesome, thanks.
How many of these players are DT’s? Maybe wTEF is a better indicator for Trysten Hill.
Interesting comparison:
Hill 3.37 103.8
Gary 3.57 98.6
Gary is an acknowledged freak.
Hill is looking better and better.
Watch UVA CB Bryce Hall at the 5:28-5:20 mark in the 2nd here. The boundary corner at the top of the screen.
He’s not quite LSU S Grant Delpit, Georgia HB D’Andre Swift, Iowa’s AJ Epenesa, Georgia’s Andrew Thomas, etc. in terms of 2020 prospects but he’s in that next tier for me.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JUQdl0tA_Lo
The more I think about Doug Baldwin the more I think this will be his last season with the Seahawks. He’s 30 yo, he had leg injuries this year which sounds like they will be recurring and after this year if the Hawks cut him, it’s an 11 mil cap savings.
I think it’s imperative for the Seahawks to draft a WR.
The more I watch Mecole Hardman, the more I love him. He has that Tyreek Hill extra gear. He’s only played WR for two years so his best days are ahead of him. He already has really good catching mechanics. 4.33 40 / 36” vert. The guy is explosive! Plus he’s a stud returner and can take those duties off Tyler who really hasn’t been a good returner since his 2nd year.
It’s a certainty that they draft a receiver, in part for the reason you offered (Doug).
It’s just a question of whether the pick comes in rounds 2, 3 or 4.
I took your cue and read up on him. Poor man’s Paris Campbell and lots of upside with NFL coaching. Great late round pick.
Nice mentioning him. If he’s underrated he might available in the 4th round, which could be a huge steal
Amazing how something like fixing the posting delay can generate a whole new feel for the site. Love it. Looking forward to the re-design and the possible addition of some new features and functionality.
Please don’t pass on the financial assistance some have already offered. This is a community site anyway, right? 😉
I’m so fired up we resigned all the guys we did and got a good kicker.
Feels like we have some BPA flexibility in the draft now that we don’t usually have. Exciting!!!
+1
. . . Also if we get anything close to your mock draft AND get the standard package of under-rated UDFAs again this year, man is this gonna be a fun year.
Rob, as we well know, Pete seems to have a hard rule that he will only draft a Leo who runs a sub-4.6/40. Despite the elite rep of the DL prospects this year, there are very few, Montez Sweat notwithstanding, who ran in the 4.5’s. Bosa, for example, was in the 4.7’s. Winovich is one of the few to post Seahawky numbers, despite the rep going in that he was slow and stiff. If Pete goes Leo R2/R3, who would be in play?
I don’t think they’ll go LEO that early. Probably more likely to take an inside/out or DT because that’s where the strength is. Best options will be if Christian Miller or D’Andre Walker test in range. We’ll have to wait for their pro-day results. The other option is Brian Burns if he lasts.
…thx, Rob. I know that your mock has Brian Burns going to the Titans at #19, but if he does drop to #21, I hope the Seahawks stay put and take him. An extra R3 is nice, but Burns is significantly better than anyone John and Pete could grab in the mid-rounds. The value is at DT, but most of these guys play the same position as Jarran, so I see a much bigger impact to the team from an elite Leo.
I respect that you like Burns but the Seahawks need more picks than the four they have. They can’t just pick four times.
And I too like Burns, but I’m not essentially writing off a deep draft class and picking four times to guarantee his selection. He comes with big question marks.
My hypothetical trades would be
1) Trade 21 to LAC for 28 and 91. Chargers leapfrog the Ravens to take Dexter Lawrence who I think falls in the draft.
2) Trade 28 to NYG for 37, 108 and 143. NYG take Daniel Jones as their QB of the future
3) Seattle trades 84 and 108 to NYJ for 68 and 217
This leaves Seattle with 37, 84, 91, 108, 124, 143, 159
37 (2nd) – Jeffrey Simmons (DT) – controversial pick due to the video. Sounds like there’s more to the story regarding his family and the woman. By all reports he has been a model citizen, student and mentor to younger kids. He’s owned up to his actions since it happened. He’s a top 5 pick if not for the issue and the ACL. Pair him with Reed inside and that’s a disruptive duo or he can be a hedge if Reed asks for too much money.
68 (3rd) – Mecole Hardman (WR) – what Rob said about Russ likes to see his WRs open before throwing is true and that is why they tend to go with the shiftier guys. Mecole is lightning quick and is just learning the position. He’s got huge upside.
91 (3rd) – Marvell Tell (CB) – I think Rob is spot on. Marvell has the traits of a CB. He’s also very fluid in his back pedal and with his hips. I’m not sold on Shaq. I think Marvell can develop in to the starting LCB. He has the swag, smarts and athletic arrogance of Sherm. If he can develop like Sherm? We shall see.
124 (4th) – Tyree Jackson (QB) – I think JS would love this guy. He’s got a cannon for an arm and his personality is neat. Always has a smile on his face and having fun. We’ll have to see if he can read coverages and take care of the ball but he has a top 1% arm strength and can develop in to a starter down the road. Could be Ben Roethljsberger or could be Brock Osweiler.
143 (5th) – Trevon Wesco (TE/FB) – TE is a need pick based on Vannetts upcoming free agency, Uncle Wills uncertainty from PCL and Ed Dickson being on the wrong side of 30. Wesco is just a neat, tough player.
159 (5th) – Drew Forbes (OL) – Played at SE Missouri. This guy is nasty! Played LT but will be a guard. Playing at the lower level, he pancaked nearly every guy who lined up against him.
217 (7th) – Drew Lewis (LB). – Fits the athletic traits Seattle wants in their LB. can be a special teams ace
I thought PCJS said in the past they wouldn’t take a guy who hit a woman. I don’t know what the story with Simmons and the woman is, but unless she was punching his little kid or had a gun in her hand, I can’t think of a story that ends with us drafting a guy who, IIRC, was hitting a woman while she was on the ground. Once you’ve painted yourself into that corner, how do you do that?
I’m all for second chances, paying your debt/dues, turning your life around, all that. Just don’t see it here.
I like the rest of those guys, though. Do you really think Jackson goes R4? I’ve been thinking of him as a developmental (6/7) type guy, despite the arm and athleticism.
Didi you hear what PC said about Clark just 2 months ago?
No, what’d He say?
He basically said they keep an open mind on every prospect and look for opportunities when people deserve a second chance and don’t just write them off like other teams. He felt that gave them a big opportunity with Frank that other teams had shunned.
And that Clark showed how somebody can use that second opportunity, and that he is real leader on and off the field, great player and above everything great person and family man.
Jeffrey Simmons is my 2nd choice/hope for our first pick behind P. Campbell. Simmons will be very good and disruptive at the next level. I believe he deserves a second chance though what he did as a teen was almost unforgivable.
Today is Alabama pro day. It will be very interesting to see how Christian Miller will test.
I love Hill…as a 3rd rounder. I like him as a 2nd rounder. Not sure how much of a fan as a first rounder. Seems like Seattle tried to clean up their locker room. You can win a championship with Sherm and Bennett, but not sure if you can build a dynasty. I think UCF likes to win. If Hill really is that talented I doubt they’d reduce his role because of some minor opinion differences.
I think he’ll come off of many boards. I don’t think he’ll fall only 10-20 places. I think he’ll be available well into the late 2nd round.
This could be a huge steal or a major mishap. I’m not sure the Hawks can take that risk following McDowell. I know, you have to risk it to get the biscuit, but still. This franchise is changing. They are still open to be fun and unique, but also football first and be a team player.
Not sure if Hill is a 100% team player. Not saying they wouldn’t draft him, but I don’t think they’d risk it with their first pick and only 6 picks available. They’d do it in the third or if they’d have at least 8 picks in my opinion.
Also if they want him, like him, they’ll dig really deep. If the issues not all with him, they might pull the trigger.
As for the rest of the mock: I love the Thomas pick. Great value, could be a steal and a new Sherm. If not, he could be a good backup and special teamer. And he’s “cheap” (late pick). Big potential upside, low risk.
I like Wesco…but he’s too early for me. I think he could easily be a 4th or maybe even a 5th round pick. Bit of a jack of all trades, master of none for a lot of teams (FB? TE? Blocker? How well can he catch?). I think if a team wants a blocker TE there are plenty who are better pass catchers.
I think it’s a great fit and pick for the Hawks but wouldn’t be that for a lot of teams.
I kinda miss Ingold, but as Wesco might be able to function as a FB, he might not be a need?
I like Hooker, I think he’s a need, a fit and a good cost/value prospect in the 3rd round.
I think Jennings is fine in the 4th. Not sure how good of a blocker and special teamer he is. I don’t mind the cost, but not sure about the fit. He isn’t that good of a route runner and pass-catcher. He’s fast and can run some routes well, but not sure what is that he adds to the team (even as the 3rd WR). I’m fine with him, but I think he could be more of a camp-body or special teamer.
I don’t really familiar with Hollins.
I feel like this could be a surprise draft for us and we might draft 3 DBs.
I think there is a need:
Coleman is gone, King is questionable as a nickel. They like Hill and T2, but they are not great. Flowers played well, but it’s only one year not sure how much can he develop. Griffin struggled some. We don’t have any CB depth.
This is a good draft for long, tall CBs who won’t go early. I feel like we’ll select one of them (Jackson or Thomas) in the 4th-6th round range.
This is also a good draft for fast safeties who are also solid at coverage. I think McDougald is better at SS so we could get 2 safeties (Tell, Tornhill, Savage, Hooker).
The CB could be a backup for both outside spots or could compete to start.
One of the safeties could be a nickel CB convert and the other could compete with Hill and T2 for starting safety spot.
People need to stop conflating Trysten Hill with other players, especially Sherman and Bennett.
Just because someone isn’t a choir boy in college doesn’t mean they’ll be disruptive in the pro’s. He didn’t see eye to eye with a new coach. Neither did Doug Baldwin at Stanford.
Just because Seattle moved on from Sherman/Bennett doesn’t mean they’re never going to draft anyone with even a hint of anything not ideal.
But if he’s a top15 talent and his behaviour is not an issue how come teams before the end of 1st won’t draft him? Do other teams that much afraid of a “guy with a stronger voice”? Do you think that the Seahawks fine with that? I’m not saying he’s the same as Sherm or Bennett. They are all different. But might have some similar character traits.
PCJS were always fearless. They were after the best player. Now I’m not sure. They got burned a bit by the BennettShermanThomas stuff and failing with the McDowell pick. If they’d pick someone in the first round who would be a major bust the perception of them as an HC & GM would take a massive hit (not saying any of them would be fired or anything, but it would hurt them). I feel they’re more trigger-shy than in previous years. But I might be wrong, just has this feeling that they might go with the lesser, but a bit “safer” player this year.
Great 2 rd. mock draft and excellent draft for the Seahawks, Rob! Would be ecstatic if we only had 6 picks and these were the players we selected. Hill is a big fast DT who would be top 15-20 in any other year that wasn’t so loaded at the position and if he had played more. Check out the 2nd video at the 4 min. mark; as soon as he realizes he’s passed the play, this 310 lb. agile DT whips around and tackles the RB. In the 1st one, the other team knows they have a beast to stop and starts double-teaming him, but he still gets a few TFLs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYVDjk8OLwA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJAGgtM5Tzc&t=74s
Have been us wanting us to draft WVU’s TE Wesco and WR Jennings since Senior Bowl week, and Hollins since he dominated and was defensive MVP in the Shrine game. In Wesco’s combine tape, he looks like he is limping or pulled something in one leg some of the time when he’s running, but pushes through and doesn’t drop a pass throughout the drills except the last one which is a little overthrown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD8_bsYqLTQ&t=4s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5mozSr2bVo
Jennings looked great in the Senior Bowl with a TD and a 54 yard catch against FS Adderley while fighting him off with the other hand. He has 4.4 speed and creates separation, something some of the bigger slower receivers like Butler don’t do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvXcIVC_gFU&t=3s
Hooker looks fantastic and is a ball hawk, also believe he could play the slot in addition to safety.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1KMkeUtL3c
Thomas has the 4.4 speed to keep up with the receivers and is a big physical CB, just needs to not hold in the pros like he does in a few of these highlights, will get DPIs on Sundays if he doesn’t stop being so handsy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1KMkeUtL3c
Believe all of these players would be contributing right away – Hill starting on the DL, Wesco and Jennings 2nd or 3rd TE and WR depending on Dissly and Baldwin’s health. Hollins could rotate rushing the passer with Martin, and Hooker and Thomas could play in nickle/dime packages and push the current DBs. All could play special teams.
@adamschefter
Former Packers’ WR Jordy Nelson is scheduled to visit the Seahawks on Tuesday, per source. They were interested in Nelson last year; GM John Schneider loves Nelson.
Other interested teams at this point include: Patriots, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders.
Expected.
And if they can get this done, completely sets them up for a D-line focused draft. It’s the one area they haven’t addressed.
Rob, this implies Nelson has something left, cespite age and injury history. Does he? If so, at the right price, I’m all for it. Bringing him in also implies the Hawks think he might…
I don’t know to be honest. But the Seahawks wanted him a year ago and need one more option at receiver. They will draft a wide out but this would take some pressure off needing to do it in the first two rounds, allowing them to focus on the DL.
A few potentially positives…
Was cut, so won’t count VS comp picks.
Shouldn’t cost much.
Has always had great hands, and those don’t go away with age.
Had 700+ yards last year.
Would create more drafft flexibility, in that we wouldn’t HAVE to draft a WR early.
Seems like a good character guy, who could maybe mentor DJ Moore?
If the price is right, not a lot of downside here.
Hmmm, John Schneider’s front office in Green Bay drafted Nelson back in 2008, so obviously they’ve liked him for quite awhile.
Wouldn’t mind kicking the tires on another veteran WR ala Brandon Marshall last year. That being said, we do another young WR to develop. Lockett is great and Moore has promise, but Baldwin might be playing his final year here. I think he’s going to retire.
Rob, any thoughts on Jalen Hurd? I was watching some tape on the later round WRs and I think this dude could be a stud.
6’5″, 225, 10+” hands, great work ethic. His frame doesn’t look too maxed out either so he could get stronger than his 20+ reps on the bench. Former RB so he’s good once he gets the ball in his hands, Baylor also lined him up as a RB sometimes and he looked good. He’s really raw but could be coached into something – like a Terrelle Pryor.
Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xCM7FkHh-c
Hard to shake that hit Deandre Baker had on him as he sauntered into the end zone, fumbling the ball at the one yard line and turning a guaranteed touchdown into a turnover simply because he was jogging.
At the same time though, he’s a young kid. We’ve seen people make those kinds of mistakes in college.
Sure. I’m just saying it’s hard to shake that image when I think of Jalen Hurd.
Just not a player I’m that interested in anyway.
Rob, what if the seahawks can’t find a partner to trade down with? It almost happened last year and they said they were willing to take penny at 18. If it were to happen, we would probably have first pick on receivers or somebody like burns or sweat. Also is Noah Fant a good fit? I assume his run blocking isn’t ideal, but we really struggled on 3rd downs sometimes and he could help with that while dissly and fant can handle early downs.
They’ll find a trade partner.
I don’t think Noah Fant is a great fit. More of a big slot type TE, the kind they seemed to move away from last year.
Regarding WR. Jordy Nelson is visiting the Hawks tomorrow and he fits this system like a glove.
Seahawks showing interest in Justin Hollins at Oregon’s Pro Day. “The Seahawks likely engaged with each of these four players, and maybe even a handful of others, but one player they seemed keen on was Hollins. Hollins is a potential NFL edge defender who was seen doing drills, with a Seahawks staffer nearby, in a post on his instagram account.”
https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/16/seahawks-show-interest-in-oregon-lb-justin-hollins/?utm_source=seahawkswire&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=pos1headline
I never really looked at Hollins all year as I am not a PAC 12 fan but I thought he was the best player at the Shine Bowl. He looked like a great fit in a Bruce Irvin type role. Then he had an incredile combine with great mesureables and testing. He ticks all the boxes from an athletic standpoint IMO.
Unfortunately when you watch his tape you are left underwhelmed and wanting more. Particularly when you know the type of athlete he is. Is that effort or coaching. I am sure the Hawks are trying to figure that out now.
On a positive note the reports were he really responded well to the pro coaching at the Shrine Bowl so that is a good sign.
I really hope the Hawks take him in the Rd 4-5 range because I really think he could be a steal.
I’d only take him in the Obum Gwachum ‘athlete who needs major work’ range.
Rob, do you think you’ll be doing more podcasts (or Google Hangouts a la last year) leading up to the draft? I really enjoyed the ones that you did for the combine with the SeaHawkers.
On the podcasts — it depends if I’m invited on. But I’m open to any offers.
I will do some Google Hangouts if nothing else emerges.
Shawn oakman from Baylor was just proven innocent in court on the false rape charges. I know we talked about him a bit a few years back. Any interest in bringing him to kick the tires?
He wasn’t proven innocent. The jury found that there wasn’t evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that he did it. Doesn’t mean that they thought, believed or found that he didn’t do it, just that there wasn’t enough evidence.
The presumption is that he’s innocent until proven guilty, and by not finding him guilty, it is the same as finding that he is innocent. Unfortunately, you are right and that he may not actually be innocent, and it was lack of evidence to prove it, but in order for the legal system to work correctly, the lack of proving he was guilty should prove his innocence and should allow him to pursue a life and a career without having people hang this over his head, in a way that you are trying to frame it.
So, without evidence proving you committed a crime, you are innocent. It is still innocent until proven guilty in the United States right?
When do the Hawks have thier local pro day? What teams can attend without being considered official visits?I know Washington but how about Wash St., Oregon, Oregon St.?
They usually start having guys in for visits after that right?
Any team within a 50 mile radius doesn’t count against the 30 official vists. No idea when their local pro day is.
Hey Rob, I’m curious as to why you think the Hawks will invest such a high (2nd rd) pick into a TE. I feel the Hawks have been able to get good value out of the position with less than exceptional talent (Willson), and when we’ve invested heavily in the spot it hasn’t quite worked out (Jimmy, Vannett).
I just feel like we could get better value out of our picks by using a potential 2nd/3rd rd pick into a more premium position w/ a greater need; like DE,DT, S/CB. We could then get a TE in the 5th-6th.
You are obviously more knowledgeable than I and I trust your judgement, just curious to further understand your reasoning behind going TE early.
Thanks for all the great work you put in, the whole fanbase is very appreciate.
I projected the Seahawks would take a tight end in round three, not round two.
I also have them spending a first round pick on a DT and a third round pick on a nickel/safety.
I put Trevon Wesco with them in round three (late round three) for two reasons — he’s similar in style to Will Dissly and that seems to be the type they like. Plus we will see a major run on tight ends in rounds 2-3 and if you wait on that position, you might miss out altogether. And they need to add a TE with Vennett/Dickson out of contract at the end of the year and Dissly recovering from the most serious of knee injuries.
These guys are discussing Russell’s contract situation. Some interesting bits in here, many of which Rob and others have touched on:
https://www.rotoworld.com/video/nfl/wilsons-contract-outlook
Franchise tags would be: Year 1 – $30.43M, Year 2 – $36.4M, Year 3 (44% bump) – $52.43M!!
Mentioned that the Fallon question seemed like a plant from Russ’s camp to spur negotiations.
Russ and his camp likely have a number in mind and have no incentive to budge, as playing under the tag will get him the numbers above, as well as all leverage.
Keeping Russ, makes us contenders going forward which in turn leads to impact FA’s wanting to be a part.
$33.6M/yr is the unofficial number in their eyes, though it is likely higher than that IMO.
Impact FA’s are most affected by the highest bidder.
By and large yes. They did mention Tyrann Mathieu as having wanted to go to KC to be a part of what they are building.
You aren’t going to outbid everyone, but if two offers are close, most guys would take a chance to play for a perennial playoff team over the teams that trend towards losing records year after year.
Not sure if you watched it, but these guys were echoing your sentiments Bobby, in regards to Wilson.
Just posted a new article discussing this.
Temple DL Michael Dogbe- 6’3, 284 lbs.
4.92 40
34 BP reps
9’2″ broad
4.59 SS
7.40 3 cone
CB Rock Ya-Sin 6.97 3 cone.
HB Ryquell Armstead has an official visit set up w/Chicago and Philly RB coach Deuce Staley put him through his drills today.
Any vert? Just wanted to calculate TEF score.
Also: https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1106755218342113281
Not that I could find.
Seattle was there too.
Saw at least 2 different scouts here for McKinley Whitfield at Tulsa’s pro day, but can’t find any of his #’s other than his 9’10” broad.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremiepoplin/status/1106270140147159040
lmao 😂😂😂
Looks legit
https://mobile.twitter.com/PawPatrolScout/status/1107465290374438913/photo/1
There is “twitter fight” in last 24h. TDN crew vs Matt Miller. 😀
I saw that.
This pawpatrol guy has got to be a troll.
one of the strangest situation this draft season is one around Juan Thornhill. I read a lot reports about him and all analists (last one was Jeremiah) praises his instincts and football IQ. And there were rumors after combine that he had awfull interviews and showed really low football IQ.
Really like Pittsburgh signing Mark Barron for 2 years, $12 mil. Probably one of my favorite moves this off-season.