New two-round mock draft, trades impact Seattle

I’ve not bought into the idea that the Cardinals will trade out of the #3 pick. I wasn’t convinced a team would make an offer good enough to tempt Arizona. After all, they’d be moving off the top defensive player in the draft at a time when they’re desperate for difference makers on defense.

However, I’m starting to think it might happen after all.

The Florida pro-day is the last of the top-quarterback throwing sessions. Anthony Richardson is the star attraction and remains the X-factor in this process. He has everything needed physically to be a future superstar.

Given the right guidance and developed properly, the sky’s the limit for Richardson.

I found the list of teams bringing Richardson in for an official-30 visit interesting. Per Jordan Schultz, they include Las Vegas, Atlanta, Tennessee and Baltimore.

In other words — the teams picking at #7, #8 and #11 plus a franchise potentially set for a messy divorce with their current starting quarterback.

The buzz around Richardson is legit. I think teams are going to end up thinking — why not take a chance on this player becoming brilliant?

As such, I want to do a mock with a team trading up to #3.

I’m going for the Falcons.

Firstly, they’ve done a great job aggressively upgrading various parts of their roster this off-season. They have very few question marks apart from quarterback — with third round pick Desmond Ridder announced recently as the 2023 starter.

I don’t think Ridder is good enough, or has shown enough, to believe the Falcons are completely sold on his long-term starting credentials. Imagine inserting Richardson, after a year of preparation, into a roster with so much talent? By being aggressive on the open market, they’ve also bought a means to be aggressive via draft trade. They can afford to take a chance.

Arthur Blank isn’t a shy, retiring, conservative-thinking owner. He wants to win. He wants excitement. I think he will want Richardson. I have the Falcons trading their next two first round picks to move up from #8 to #3. The Raiders choose not to match, while the Titans would have to give up too much to move up from #11.

This would mean four quarterbacks taken with the first four picks.

You’ll find the mock below with extra thoughts on the Seahawks at the end.

Firstly though…

The trades

Atlanta (#8) trades with Arizona (#3) for the Falcons’ 2024 & 2025 first round picks
The Falcons have built a very competitive roster and can afford to let Desmond Ridder start this year. In the meantime, they trade up for Richardson. If Ridder succeeds in 2023, they can always trade him and recoup some stock. Either way — this is a franchise that needs some electricity and Richardson would provide that.

New York Giants (#26) trade with Seattle (#20) for the #90 pick
The Giants jump ahead of LA and Baltimore to get the receiver they want. The Seahawks get a third round pick in return.

Seattle (#38) trades with Houston (#34) for the #124 pick
The Seahawks want to make sure they get their first choice center and jump ahead of division rivals Arizona to make sure they land their man.

First round

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Against Georgia he showed flashes of Mahomes. He’s a sensational talent, capable of handling the pressure of being the #1 pick. A star in the making.

#2 Houston — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Young is a good fit for the offense, would help shape a new culture in Houston and provide an offensive identity to the franchise.

#3 Atlanta (v/ARI) — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
The Falcons trade up to add a player with enough potential to be a MVP candidate in the future. He’d be working with the ideal coach in Arthur Smith.

#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
The big-armed Levis screams Chris Ballard pick and his ability to start quickly is a plus.

#5 Seattle — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I think the Seahawks are very open to drafting any of the top-four quarterbacks but they’ll also be delighted if Anderson lasts to this spot. He’s perfect for the scheme, would give Seattle a legit edge threat and his A+ character and attitude are exactly what Schneider and Carroll are looking to add.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
I think they will consider Jalen Carter unlike Arizona and Seattle but ultimately they take the safer bet with Wilson.

#7 Las Vegas — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Offensive linemen with the explosive testing results Skoronski has go very early in the draft.

#8 Arizona (v/ATL) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
With outstanding physical gifts and a feisty playing style, Gonzalez should find a home in the top-10. The Cardinals are comfortable moving down here, knowing they’ll land one of Wilson or Gonzalez.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
I don’t think the Bears will be one of the teams prepared to take a chance on Carter. They add one of the legit, blue-chip players in Robinson to create the most dynamic rushing attack in the NFL.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
The GM who takes Carter will have money in the bank with ownership, job security and the ability to outlast the mistake if he busts.

#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
As soon as he ran a brilliant short shuttle and three-cone, I was convinced he deserves to be taken this early. A complete tight end.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
I remain unsure of Smith-Njigba’s speed but in the Shanahan-inspired system, which runs a lot of quick slants and crossing routes, he should excel.

#13 NY Jets — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
Joe Douglas loves explosive offensive linemen and Darnell Wright is the best tackle in the draft.

#14 New England — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
This feels like a pick the Patriots would make — a good fit in terms of scheme with the chance to develop Banks into a quality cornerback.

#15 Green Bay — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
The Packers troll Aaron Rodgers by finally drafting a receiver in round one and select a player I think is being way underrated.

#16 Washington — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
The lack of testing will be a concern but Witherspoon’s tenacious passion for brutal hits will appeal to Ron Rivera and his staff.

#17 Pittsburgh — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
He just feels like the kind of monster you find in the AFC North.

#18 Detroit — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
He’s been overrated for far too long and could last longer than this. He still hasn’t done any testing either.

#19 Tampa Bay — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
This would allow the Buccs to keep Tristan Wirfs at right tackle.

#20 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
The Giants trade up for a bigger receiver with WR1 potential, leaping ahead of LA and Baltimore — two other teams in the wide-out market.

#21 Miami — forfeited
Naughty Naughty.

#22 LA Chargers — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Flowers would complement the bigger targets already in LA.

#23 Baltimore — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
Not sure how this would go down in Pittsburgh…

#24 Minnesota — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
There’s legit buzz around Hooker as a first round prospect and the Vikings have been looking closely at this QB class according to numerous reports.

#25 Jacksonville — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
I think he has to fix his technique to stay at tackle but physically he has everything you need.

#26 Seattle (v/NYG) — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
The Seahawks trade down a few spots and select another impact defensive lineman. They’re seemingly after another 280-285lbs defensive end for their 3-4 and at 282lbs, Adebawore ran a 4.49 forty and a 4.26 short shuttle. That’s insane. He’s also explosive with long arms and he has a great Senior Bowl on his résumé.

#27 Dallas — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
The Cowboys are exactly the kind of team that would take a chance on Kancey and reap the benefits for years to come.

#28 Buffalo — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
He’s a bit older and has some technical issues to resolve but there’s no doubt he’s an enticing player with major physical upside.

#29 Cincinnati — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
The Bengals need to keep adding weapons and this would be excellent value.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
The Saints also jump into the tight end market and get Derek Carr a new best friend.

#31 Philadelphia — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
They lost both safeties in free agency and Branch is versatile enough to play in Philly’s defense where Sean Desai will use a lot of three-safety sets.

#32 Kansas City — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
They love dynamic athletes and that’s McDonald — the bendiest, best-balance pass-rusher you’ll find.

Second round

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
The Steelers add some serious beef by taking Dawand Jones for the O-line then adding Mazi Smith for the defense.

#34 Seattle (v/HOU) — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
Fearing the Cardinals, the Seahawks jump up four spots and give Houston a fourth round pick to select JMS — locking up the center position. His wrestling background, 4.56 short shuttle and personality are ideal fits for Seattle.

#35 Arizona — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
I think he’s become quite overrated. He has great testing and size numbers but let’s not forget he didn’t even start for Iowa.

#36 Indianapolis — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
A really good run-blocker who is going to go earlier than people think.

#37 LA Rams — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Eventually someone is going to snap him up. Incredible potential and he helped drive Alabama forward last season — sometimes on his own.

#38 Houston (v/SEA, DEN) — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
He’s a tweener and it’s hard to work out what his role is at the next level but someone will take a shot to work it out.

#39 Las Vegas — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
His agility testing could get him into round one but his tape is ‘meh’ and I’m not sure he’s a glass-eater like some of these other tight ends.

#40 Carolina — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
More weapons. Addison would be a nice slot-option for the Panthers.

#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
He can play a variety of positions but for anyone who thinks he’s a nose tackle — watch what he did at the Senior Bowl. He can disrupt and is probably better suited to a role that lets him rush the passer more often than he did in college.

#42 Tennessee — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
Whether he plays tackle or guard, there’s a lot to like about the athletic Canadian.

#43 Green Bay (v/NYJ CLE) — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
The chances are this pick will end up with the Packers in an Aaron Rodgers trade. If so, they get an alpha-dog pass rusher who had fantastic testing numbers at the combine and his pro-day.

#44 NY Jets — Cody Mauch (G/C, North Dakota State)
The Jets need an answer at center and I think Mauch’s tenacity and joyful delight in burying people will secure a top-50 placing.

#45 Atlanta — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
He’s a fantastic, dynamic athlete and he could easily go in round one.

#46 Green Bay — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
When you just watch highlights of LaPorta — essentially the moments where he’s not bogged-down by the Iowa offense — he looks genuinely exciting as a receiver.

#47 New England — Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
This feels like such a Patriots pick. Amazing character, stunning athlete, versatile.

#48 Washington — Luke Schoonmaker (TE, Michigan)
It’s such a fantastic tight end class with the testing numbers and we could see a whole bunch go in the top-50. Schoonmaker is another who fits the bill.

#49 Detroit — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
The testing numbers were not spectacular and his missed-tackle rate could lead to a bit of a fall.

#50 Pittsburgh — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Ringo is a mature, well-spoken defender with great straight-line speed but I worry about his change of direction ability. How will he handle anything going over the middle?

#51 Tampa Bay — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s so underrated and deserves a lot more attention than he’s getting.

#52 Miami — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
The way he played against Georgia was top level. Teams will remember that.

#53 Seattle — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
It’s not a 2023 need but it’s certainly looking like a critical 2024 need. Kraft has a testing profile to match the best in the game — plus he’s a great blocker and plays with toughness and athleticism. The Seahawks can afford to tap into a great TE class and not solely be driven by need in this draft.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
This will be seen as a big drop but remember — he’s missed a lot of time through injury, he lacks length and he’s been really inconsistent. The upside is there but he needs to put it together.

#55 LA Chargers — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
Another player at cornerback who could easily go a lot earlier than this.

#56 Detroit (v/MIN) — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
Lots of turnovers and he has a knack for making plays — but he looked like a rake in shorts at the combine.

#57 Jacksonville — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
I wanted to find a way to get Ojulari into the top-50 but it’s hard. Great character and a very capable rusher who can drop when asked.

#58 NY Giants — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
I loved interviewing Brents and his attitude and approach will see him develop and reach a high level. Plus, he has an outstanding physical profile.

#59 Dallas — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
An electric, dynamic playmaker who compares well to Tony Pollard.

#60 Buffalo — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
I thought his combine was underwhelming and teams might start to wonder whether he’s a product of Tennessee’s wide-open scheme.

#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
They like speed at cornerback and Rush’s name matches his testing profile.

#62 Chicago (v/CAR, SF) — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
He’s a bit of a tweener and that won’t help but his rush ability plus the intensity and character he possesses will make him a very likely round two pick.

#63 Philadelphia — Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh)
His pro-day performance was exceptional and he just looks like the kind of player you can imagine running riot in Philly’s offense.

#64 Kansas City — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
For me he’s a top-50 lock in grading but if he lasts to the Chiefs, good luck to the rest of the AFC West.

Seattle’s round three picks

#84 — Byron Young (DE, Alabama)
Reuniting Will Anderson with Young would be a masterstroke. Alabama’s two alpha-male leaders from their destructive D-line, working in tandem. Young is a perfect fit for Seattle’s scheme. He’s adept at two-gapping and reading an offense. He can knife into the backfield to create opportunities for others. He’s disruptive, powerful and strong. He can start immediately.

#90 — Jaquelin Roy (DT, LSU)
The Seahawks need a nose tackle and Roy could go in this range. He’s a character fit for Seattle and the one thing he does that will really appeal is he plays a ton of snaps. They can put a heavy workload on him and he’ll get the job done. Roy’s not a spectacular player but he’ll be very solid.

The Seahawks’ picks in rounds 1-3

Will Anderson (EDGE)
Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE)
John Michael Schmitz (C)
Tucker Kraft (TE)
Byron Young (DE)
Jaquelin Roy (NT)

Thoughts on the Seahawks’ picks

I haven’t delved into a scenario where the quarterbacks go 1-4 before. I think the Seahawks, as I’ve said a few times, are very comfortable at #5. I think they’ll happily take one of the QB’s or, if this situation plays out, Will Anderson. To me it’s a very strong position to be in.

When the season ended in San Francisco there was a lot of talk about what the 49ers have that the Seahawks don’t have. Anderson could be viewed as a player who can close the gap. He is not a Bosa-brother level player but he’s still a very good prospect. You’re getting an aggressive, explosive edge rusher who plays the run well for his size and has shown he can be a production machine at Alabama. He has one of the best character profiles to ever enter the league, ticking every single box from family background to attitude and responsibility to lifestyle and the way he speaks to team-mates and the media. He’s also an alpha who can set the tone for the locker room. He wore #31 for a reason.

If the Seahawks want to create a scary defensive front, imagine putting Anderson on the field with Dre’Mont Jones, Adetomiwa Adebawore and one of Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor or Boye Mafe. That suddenly looks like a pack of hounds, ready to get after a quarterback. Opponents will not look forward to facing that.

On Adebawore, I do think they are looking for another 280-285lbs defensive end. They recently had a visit with Mario Edwards and were trying to sign Zach Allen to go with Jones. The thing with Adebawore is he’s just such a rare player. You don’t get 6-2, 282lbs linemen who run a 4.49 and a 4.26 short shuttle. Throw in the fact he has +34 inch arms and I actually think it’s possible he has the testing profile to ‘do a Tariq Woolen’ and come into the league and just fit right in.

After addressing the defense with their first two picks, attentions then turn to the offense. Seattle pulls off a ‘trade down, then trade up’ move. A year ago we know they looked into moving up with the #40 pick so it’s possible they’ll target something similar here. They land a center of the future, jumping ahead of Arizona, to get John Michael Schmitz. Fans have long wanted the team to invest in the position and Schmitz — along with Luke Wypler — is a perfect scheme fit.

Having addressed three critical needs with their top picks, now it’s time for some BPA magic. Tucker Kraft will be seen as a head-scratcher for some but with Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson out of contract in 2024 — and with Will Dissly’s long-term future uncertain beyond 2023 — planning ahead could be a wise move. Plus, the Seahawks need to create some cap space. Trading Noah Fant after the draft would save $6.5m. If they take one of the top TE’s in the draft, they might be able to deal Fant to a team that missed out on the position — promoting the rookie into a bigger role and freeing up the money they need.

On Kraft as a player — we’ve revealed how the top tight ends over the last decade have all had the same profile of a great 10-yard split and short shuttle. Kraft ran an elite 1.59 split and a sensational 4.29 shuttle. He also plays exactly how Seattle loves — tough, physical, he likes to block and he’s a dynamic pass-catcher.

In round three the attention returns to defense. Schneider said at the owners meeting they need ‘three or four’ more additions to the unit. By adding nose tackle Jaquelin Roy you fill the most pressing need remaining. Byron Young can also deliver some beef to the defensive front, to complement the dynamism of Adebawore and Jones.

This is a projection that represents Seattle’s uncompromising approach to character, competition and leadership.

With the remaining four picks you could target interior O-line depth, receiver and running back.

Final thoughts

For me, this would be an excellent haul for the Seahawks. You could potentially set-up your defense up for long term success. With the moves they’ve made so far, combined with these players added, you could be looking at a top-level unit.

Seattle’s choice at #5 will come down to Arizona sticking or moving down. That will determine whether the pick is Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson, in my opinion. Either player would be a thoroughly exciting proposition.

I will share my notes on Richardson’s pro-day later today. If a team is going to move up, it’ll likely be because he excelled in Gainesville. This could be a very interesting week ahead.

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  1. DK

    Great work as always Rob!

    I am a big fan of Keion White, and do you think Schneider and Carroll might look at him as an option over Ade Ade or if another team grabs Ade Ade before the Seahawks can?

    • Rob Staton

      Yes, he is another good option

  2. Mr drucker in hooterville

    Why not stay at 38 and take Wypler and keep a pick?

    • Rob Staton

      Because they might prefer JMS

  3. Mort

    I really enjoyed this mock Rob keep up the great work. If the team went this route are you thinking they would go for a Tanner McKee or Jaren Hall in the later rounds or wait for next year? If next year is the play who beside Williams and Maye should we start getting an early look at?

    • Rob Staton

      Wait until next year

    • Carl

      The Seattle (UW fans) are going to begin clamoring for Penix if Geno struggles.

      • EmperorMA

        Except Penix isn’t a very good prospect for the NFL.

      • HOUSE

        So I live down in GA (about an hour from Atlanta) and the Falcons are doubling down on wanting Desmond Ridder as their starter. The chatter is the continued building of the defense and that the veteran presence of Calais Campbell could help the development of Jalen Carter. Word is the Falcons are continuing to dig into him and that Carter/CB could be the pick at 7

    • Billy B

      Hey Rob! Big Fan!
      I know u have talked before that u don’t think J. Carter is even on radar, and then I saw to people say they believe Seattle won’t pass on him. I think one of those was Bucky Brooks, who thinks they are a good match. Do u still believe it’s not even an option? I’m just curious! Do u think hawks are even doing their due diligence on him or they gonna pass?

      Thanks for all the hard work that goes into this site!

      • Rob Staton

        He won’t be drafted by Seattle

        Book it

        • Sluggo42

          Haha, Book it Dano!

  4. Ryan

    Awesome mock, Rob. Thanks for all you do! You’re the hardest working man in Seahawks media.

    1. I’m happy getting Anderson in this scenario, in a way I wouldn’t be taking either Carter or Wilson.
    2. I’m going to feel frustrated if this comes to fruition, and in a year they could use a young QB and there are four top QBs and they pick 5th, that QBs go 1-2-3-4 for the first time ever. Frustrating.
    3. In this scenario, there are going to be guys in my office absolutely gleeful at not taking a QB at 5, and I just can’t understand what their plan to fix that position is.

    It is a good scenario to think about though, thanks for including it in your mock. I definitely love the trade back/up to get both Ade and Schmitz, I’d be delighted by that.

  5. KnoxHawk

    Man, I would be ecstatic with this haul. The hawks are in such a good position with all of their picks. THANK YOU RUSSELL. With 5 picks (could be 4 could be 6 after trades) in the top 3 rounds and draft depth at their positions of need, I really don’t see the need to reach for a particular prospect and any of those picks, which is a reassuring feeling.

  6. swedenhawk

    It’d be tough missing out on one of the big 4 QBs. But imagine if last year someone told you the Seahawks would draft Will Anderson…

    As for adding size and length on the D-line: Rob, have you heard anything about Cameron Young’s performance during Mississippi State’s pro day?

    • Rob Staton

      I haven’t but he would be an excellent R3 option

  7. bv eburg

    I always appreciate a draft that is heavy in the trenches like this.

    Where I differ is the luxury TE pick versus RB. Right now we have 2 and the falloff after #1 Walker is significant. And Walker had injury issues last year. Typically the Seahawks go through 4-5 running backs per year. Who could forget having to bringing back Marshawn out of retirement.
    So for me RB is a position that needs to be addressed fairly early and often if Seattle wants to play complimentary/balanced football which Pete has been consistent with. So for me at least 2 if not 3 RB’s need to be brought in and not just filler. Being they are out of cap room that screams draft.

    • Rob Staton

      The counter to this though is it’s a very deep RB class, while it’s top-heavy at TE. You can get a day-three running back who can be an excellent RB2. If you don’t take a tight end in the top-65, you’ll miss out on the very good ones.

      • bv eburg

        Problem is we need excellent RB2, 3 and 4. This team year after year churns through the position.

        • Rob Staton

          I don’t think you need to draft someone in round two though. They need to add two running backs. There’s sufficient depth in this class to do that and there are some options in the veteran market.

          • bv eburg

            This mock is through 3 rounds so you are talking 4th round RB and later. If you are saying there is high end RB2’s in round 4-7 then okay.

            • Rob Staton

              As I’ve said, it’s a deep RB class

            • Jordie

              Chris Carson was a 7th round pick.
              James Robinson was UDFA.
              Both have done well for a least one season.
              Given the needs on D and the potential of a QB at #5. RB is a need which can be addressed day 3.
              If by chance we take Will Levis at #5 then his college RB Rodriguez might be available mid to late day 3.

            • DK

              Also remember, some solid rotational running backs will be cut by teams who may draft a running back. Unless Bijan Robinson was sitting there at 34 or Gibbs at 53, there are plenty of good options on Day 3.

              In the 2022 Draft 22 running backs were drafted. 0 in the first round and six in rounds 2 and 3. So roughly 3/4 of the running backs drafted in the 2022 draft were taken in rounds 4-7. Plus, all 3 3rd rounders were taken in the very back half of that round. No reason to force taking an RB, unless one they love falls to them where the value is too good to pass up.

              • bv eburg

                Our 4th round pick is #123. So going back to pick 123 in last years draft 14 rb’s were taken. Looking at those 14 I would say at least 12 were jags. The only one of the 14 I thought were legit game changers was Pacheco with KC.
                So for me I don’t want a bunch of jags in round 4-7. Go cross reference Rob’s 4-7 running backs. He has them in roughly the same place as other sites. Take for instance descriptions in 33rd team and you will see them described as average, special teamers, PS. Not what I’m looking for if/when Walker is dinged. And god forbid we go through our typical 4+ RB’s.

        • bv eburg

          Plus I have no desire to see what Geno looks like without a rock solid running game.

          • Rob Staton

            Ken Walker + a good rookie in a deep class drafted on day three can provide a rock solid running game

            • bv eburg

              Ken Walker + good rookie get’s you to a total of 4 RB’s on the roster if you include Darwin Thompson. Drafting the TE also put’s 4 TE’s on the roster.

              • Rob Staton

                But they might trade Noah Fant to save $6.5m

                And not all of these picks can be for the here and now, tight end would be a drastic need in 12 months without some investment in the position. Why not make that investment when great, cheap options are available?

                They can get a cheap veteran RB3 or a late round guy, UDFA. It doesn’t have to be Darwin Thompson.

                • bv eburg

                  I agree “if” they trade Fant then a TE becomes a need. And Curtis article on the cap lends credence to that as a possibility.
                  But as of now Fant is on the team. Until otherwise the TE position is not a need until next year. And who knows about next year? Other than Seattle teams don’t necessarily spend big on TE’s so maybe they go the FA route or draft to fill the room. But the RB situation this year is borderline bleak with the way this team churns through the running backs.
                  Look, I’m not disagreeing with you that TE wouldn’t be a nice addition. I’m just thinking the RB position needs some legit additions now. Especially with Pete liking a balanced attack. And Geno without a legit running game…..

                  • Peter

                    I can see both your arguments.

                    1. On the one hand four TE’s trade or not feels redundant. On the other, regardless of a fant trade….which I am fairly against, btw, a rookie, hoping parkinson continues ascending, and a basically guaranteed mid level production from an always injured Dissly doesn’t inspire me.

                    2. Counter. There are tons of options at RB later. Tons. The counter to that is Seattle has picked exactly one late round RB that was very good for a short while and a whole bunch of nothing in going on fourteen years. Maybe this is the year they can end that streak?

                • Zorn Is King

                  Id pencil in a WR 3…very too heavy draft for WR..though I really like Nakua in the later rounds…

                  • Rob Staton

                    I think it’s a generally poor WR draft. I think they might add a veteran down the road.

            • geoff u

              We saw Geno without a run game on several occasions.

              Week2: 14 att for 36 yds, Loss to 49ers, Geno had a bad game
              Week10: 14-39, Loss to Bucs, Geno had a good game
              Week 12, 22-65, Loss to Raiders, Geno had a so-so game
              Week 14: 14-46, Loss to Panthers, Geno had a so-so game

              Draw your own conclusions, but they were all losses.

              • Purpleneer

                Classifying Geno’s performance against Tampa gets a “wow, what were you watching” from me. Scoreless first half, 3 points through 50+ minutes, and 2 late TDs after it was 21-3 and the QB had a good game?

    • DAWGFan

      I like the TE’s in this class, but I love the idea of the Hawks drafting Charbonett. Pairing him with K9 would give us depth we have really never had at the position. I like the fact he is also an excellent receiver and blocking back both of which are a huge need for Seattle.

  8. DW

    Thanks as always Rob.

    My only quandary about a draft like this is that I worry it puts us into that QB purgatory section of the league. I feel that we will be too good to draft a top-end QB for a long, long, while, and then not fully take advantage of some of the young talents that we have now.

    I want Will Anderson, but not as much and I DONT want to be stuck with a middle or the road QB and barely make, or not make playoffs for the next 4+ years.

    I’m being overdramatic, I’ll let myself out…

    • Rob Staton

      I’m with you — but unfortunately if a team trades up to #3, there’s not much you can do. And I don’t anticipate Arizona’s new GM thinking the best opening gambit for him is to trade with Seattle and potentially gift them a superstar QB. That would be career suicide, whatever he gets in return.

      • Fudwamper

        You might have addressed this before. What about a trade with Huston? What if Houston feels like QB or Anderson. What would it take to trade up and secure the qb if they felt that strong about it?

        • geoff u

          That, to me, is the only realistic possibility, but then you’re asking Houston to miss out on one of the top 4 QB and put them in the exact same spot we’re in. How much is it going to take for them to do that?

          • Purpleneer

            Except they already have substantial extra draft capital, should expect at least one more pretty bad year (and it’s subsequent high pick), and are just starting a new regime with a young coach who got a 6year deal.
            Arizona should be aggressively trying to trade down and almost not even consider picking at 3 (like my thoughts were when the pick was Aaron flippin Curry (and the trade for Sanchez was available). I know the rivalry concerns are real, but it would be stupid to make sacrifices to your own team for that reason. You’re competing with 31other teams, not one or three, and the Hawks clearly don’t need their help to be better than them as long as they are hampered by that Kyler contract.

      • Wilson502

        The Hawks really got screwed by the last game of the season by the Colts and Chokers. I really hope AZ doesn’t trade down, otherwise this doesn’t bode well for the future.

  9. Rob Staton

    $5.5 cap hit for Bobby Wagner

    • Mick

      I hoped it would be less. Very little room for maneuvering now.

    • FloW

      It feels quite obvious that PCJS will target a TE early in the draft with the goal to trade Fant afterwards. After their comments, I really don‘t expect Adams to be cut. If that is not the plan, they have to be confident, that Nwosu will sign an extension… but why has it not happened, yet? They sit at -5.5 Mio. Effective cap space right now and I can‘t imagine anyone trading for Dissly or Diggs. So restricturing Lockett and trading Fant seem to be the most obvious moves to create cap space.
      Another way to save cap is to trade down from #5 but I don‘t think they will waste the chance to pick Anderson or Richardson…

      • Peter

        Every time I think things are looking up….I listen to Pete tell ne about how a player literally limping and grimacing on a treadmill and has played exactly 50% + one of the games he’s been here tell me:

        ” he’s a big part of our plans next year.”

        Regardless of post June 1 cut….Adams shouldn’t be part of any plan. Not one. On the team if he even plays he should be viewed as a pure bonus.

        I was losing my mind last year with the excuse making coming on the heels of back to back injuries that the defense was so bad because JA got injured early. What kind of piss poor coaching and planning is that?

        • cha

          ” he’s a big part of our plans next year.”

          If it helps I am imagining Pete mentally finishing that sentence with at the right price.

          • Peter

            It does….thank you.

            • God of Thunder

              Try this:

              “He’s a big part of our plans next year … after we cut him and he signs with the Rams and we face him twice a year.”

    • cha

      Not bad when you consider the Rams had a $2.5m cap hit last year + $7.5m dead this year for $10m total.

      No void years on his Seahawks deal. Interesting.

      They seem very confident that they can open up the cap space somehow. I can get with that level of aggression.

      • Roy Batty

        I would imagine they already had extensions lined up for just this situation. Maybe we see something transpire in the next few weeks as they get into deep negotiations with the players and agents.

      • Blitzy the Clown

        And here I thought it was supposed to be $7m

        So while it’s still a lot for a team up against the cap, it’s still about 25% less than what was initially reported.

        Sounds like another win

        • Brett

          $1.5M in incentives can take him to $7M. Tend to think they’re NLTBE to help the team from a cap standpoint – maybe related to the team making the NFCCG and Super Bowl?

  10. Mick

    Great draft Rob. Makes sense to get Will Anderson at #5 and I think it’s a great idea to put Byron Young next to him. I was thinking Will McDonald could be our second pick in the first round, but it makes little sense to get both him and Anderson, so we might draft him if we get a QB at 5. I also think Skoronski at 7 is a well-deserved place.

  11. Troy

    Love the focus in the trenches for this draft, if it hits like last draft it could really set our team up for long term success. Missing out on a qb would suck but we could take one of the middle round qb options to develop and who knows sometimes those pan out.

    I just hope JS goes BPA, doesn’t force it, and smartly moves up if he thinks it’s the right call. So excited for the draft and this mock is like a little bit of methadone to keep me going til draft day

  12. Big Mike

    Thanks for this Rob. I’d be pleased with Anderson particularly since he plays the run well on top of being an excellent pass rusher. I do fully admit tho that I’ll be disappointed if this is how it shakes out and the Hawks don’t get a QBOTF. Since the Colts have now tanked twice in like the last decade and since Goddell lacks the tesrticles to punish tanking, to me it’s time to change how the draft is determined, at least at the top.
    Much as DW said above, I do worry about being in QB purgatory in the coming years as well. The flip side to that is of course that there’s no guarantee a high draft choice hits either but better to have a shot than not have one imo.

    • Peter

      I feel ya.

      Lost in the excitement of the great story for Geno and Seattle’s weird fandom generally is that “we,” are banking on one of tge rarest things in athletics that a 33 year old athlete is going to take a pretty big step forward to compete with the big dogs.

      Which is certainly possible. Anything is I suppose.

      But….there’s also a bit of growing evidence about qbs getting found out in their 30’s. Guys with one great year getting found out. And I said this on another post, I don’t love ( for geno,) that his contract is so connected to his out put. It looks good but on paper but if you didn’t have blinders on last year when he started pressing it wasn’t as good as when he was just having fun.

      • EIEIO

        @Peter, Same is true about baseball pitchers re coming into their own in their 30’s. Both NFL QBs and MLB Pitchers have similar demands on the player’s skill set, intelligence, and leadership characteristics. There’s a certain intangible quality, a maturity or projection of confidence required to: 1) lead a team to a game-winning TD with only seconds left, or 2) striking out the opponent’s best hitter, bases-loaded, 2-out, leading by 1-run in the 9th inning.It takes time and experiences to acquire this quality. I personally believe Geno has demonstrated he has developed into the type of leader that, surrounded by the right team mates, can lead this team for several years to come, if need be.

        • Peter

          I hope so. Signs are pointing that way in as much as it looks like the team is actually trying to build a full roster rather than big hits here and there.

          Hope geno balls out. I’m fully sick and tired of being just good enough to get a ticket to the dance but so mediocre we get bounced early and often.

  13. schuemansky

    Thanks Rob for the mock and the seemingly endless content you create for us.
    One question: In taking Richardson the Falcons almost guarantee the Cardinals a top 10 pick in 2024.
    Shouldn’t they go for the more ready Levis?

    • Peter

      The falcons love exciting players. If they don’t trade up and think ridder with more weapons could work I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bijan Robinson with their pick.

    • Purpleneer

      They should be trying for Lamar if he gets reasonable with his contract demands. I don’t think they have to go crazy to avoid Baltimore matching.

  14. Thomas

    Looks right. I’d still be letdown on missing out on a QB.

    • Balint

      Me too

  15. TJ

    Its certainly possible that ATL could move up to take a QB, but I could just as easily see them trade up to #3 for Will Anderson. They were 31st in the NFL with 21 team sacks. Only Chicago was worse (20). I could easily see them focus on fixing their pass rush.

  16. TomLPDX

    Release the hounds!

    Great draft Rob if this is the way it falls. Not worried about getting a RB and WR until day 3 and there should be quite a few options available. Also wonder if they might do a BPA at CB in the 5th round again…we have 2 picks in rd.5.

    Thanks for all the great content and talking points.

  17. Tim

    Aside from the free agent projected class for 2024, I wonder how much attention GMs place on the 2024 draft class when planning for the 2023 draft. There are always questions about who will declare early and who will remain in school, but the cap is the cap and you must assess positions of need at the proper time if you want to remain competitive.

  18. VolsHawk

    There’s some smoke (Chad Forbes specifically) that Levis bombed his interviews and may drop. Pipe dream that we can get him at #20?

    • BK26

      He still won’t make it past us. Anderson goes before us then we take him. By 6 he’ll be gone.

    • Peter

      Let’s discuss:

      Chad Forbes quoting “unnamed sources.”


      Rob Staton literally interviewing him a year ago and talking to people at Kentucky who love him.

      • Big Mike

        Hmmmm, who do I believe? Yeah “unnamed sources” got it all over people in the Kentucky program that went on the record.
        Good Lord. Seems anyone with a keyboard will say anything they can dream up to get some run.

        • Peter

          It sucks being old enough to remember newspapers and when you couldn’t go to print without verifiable sources.

          Now I get unnamed sources if you’re doing a deep dive multi part journalism piece and you need to protect names. People don’t know that you actually still had to have verifiable sources even then.

          Now….you and I should just start a YouTube called “uninformed, unnamed sources,” and just make wild ass rumors all day.

          • God of Thunder

            Something like this exists on television: MSNBC.

            • Big Mike

              You left out faux news

              • God of Thunder

                Faux news is a mix of right wing crazy and important discussion. To wit: Glenn Greenwald frequently appears as a guest.

                To change the subject slightly, most of the legacy media outlets suck re: football, but cbssports is probably the best.

    • TJ

      His recent Instagram pics of him showing off his physique are concerning to me too. Maybe I’m just old, but that seems very juvenile. Maybe its not a big deal, but I can’t see very many GMs being happy or impressed with something that was so clearly designed to get attention. Richardson has moved ahead of him on my personal draft wish list. That being said, I would still be very happy to see him end up in Seattle.

      • Peter

        I think this might be the part about getting old. Everything online for each successive generation is designed to impress. From tik tok to Instagram their are legions of folks showing off their bodies.

        I think the bigger issue is if the bulk is going to hinder his play.

        I think if you’re a gm you either need to come to terms with the new world or turn off social media.

      • BK26

        See one DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf.

        It’s a generation thing. All kids (at least younger than me at mid 30’s) have some kind of mindset of attention through social media.

        • Peter

          Dk is a great shout.

          Levis getting jacked….maybe not great for his arm.

          Dk sprinting against Olympic athletes super cool and fun until it’s not.

          Dk dunking at the all star game? Super cool until you listen the Joh Schneider and it’s not.

          • BK26

            I do worry about Levis being a little muscle-bound.

            • geoff u

              Eh, I don’t care. A player overworking is pretty low on my list, and a hell of a lot easier to fix once in an NFL training program vs someone like Jalen Carter, who’ll get winded and need to be pulled after three plays.

              • Peter

                Agree. I’d rather see everyone on the team spending time in the gym than what a ton of players do with their time.

                I think a serious sit down with the qb coach could fix that pretty quickly.

      • PJ in Seattle

        Posted this in the prior thread as well, but “Will Levis is a bust” seems to be the go to narrative heading into the draft.

        Seems like a lazy take. Much of this could’ve been said about Mahomes coming out as well. Is he Mahomes or Allen, or Trubisky or Winston, Maybe something else? I trust the people who evaluate QBs for a living to make that call better than I can.

        • Peter

          I love college football. In many ways it’s more fun than the NFL.

          I also love how hard it is for prognostication.

          Let’s take a look at some fairly glaring differences.

          Wilson, Olave, JSN, Harrison jr., top picks. Not good picks. But top tier picks. Dawaan Jones. And on Walter football a guard I can’t remember his name who they are projecting top 10 next year.

          And now kentucky:

          Wandale Robinson. Chris Rodriguez anywhere from the third to fifth round. And third round center Luke Fortner.

          There’s a difference

        • Blitzy the Clown

          Levis successfully ran Seattle’s pro system on a roster utterly devoid of talent at OL and WR.

          Name another QB in this class who can boast the same?

          I don’t know what else to say.

          Proof trumps punditry

        • geoff u

          Well I, for one, hope they keep it up and the other GMs take notice. Because I know Schneider won’t and that increases the likelihood of Levis being there at 5. Now if he’s there at 5 and John doesn’t take him, then I’ll buy into some of that.

        • Phil

          Keep in mind that while we focus on all the tangibles about players, we know very little about the intangibles. For example, do players respect their coaches and team mates, do they sleep through team meetings, are they punctual, do they go rogue from time to time, would they rather party with their frat bros rather than study, are they able to grasp what is being said to them, etc., etc. I am confident that NFL teams know the answers to these questions, but I don’t think they would share them with the public.

          I’m just saying that a guy’s hands and arms might be the right size, he might run faster than his competition, and he might be able to spin the ball better than anyone else, but he might still fall n the draft for reasons we may never know.

        • geoff u

          Also, this kind of thinking always cracks me up

          “and that if he were looking to draft a quarterback, he wouldn’t want to take him too high in the draft and would rather leave it a little bit later before picking him up….If I was one of those teams in the top five, six, ten and I’m looking at a quarterback and all of a sudden it’s Levis, I think that I would pass at that point in the top ten. Maybe later in the first round, that’s fine.”

          Player A should go range B because that is where I rank them, regardless of team needs or draft positions. But–

          A. Most teams in the top 10 won’t be picking for another round. You will simply have to be fine with not getting the player at all.
          B. You could trade down (or in Houston’s case, use pick 12), but what if Tennessee grabs him? Or someone else in the top ten who’s not as dumb as you? Now you just lost the player you’d planned on getting there, and whatever great player you could’ve gotten had you not traded down, and now what?

    • Steve Nelsen

      I don’t know. There were also reports from the combine that all the top 4 QBs really impressed in their interviews.

      What I do know is that Seattle is doing their due diligence on all the top choices and I believe that John Schneider will draft a QB of the future if one is available.

    • Brett

      Chad Forbes tweeted that Odell was going to come out of the closet a couple years ago… I don’t think he has any credibility.

  19. PJ in Seattle

    Thanks for the mock, Rob. All seems very plausible.

    I don’t love moving up to get JMS but agree they might do it if he is clearly their guy over Wypler.

    Thoughts on Zach Kuntz vs. Tucker Kraft? I definitely want a piece of this TE class and would be happy with either. Guessing Kuntz could be had later and we could spend that pick on Mingo instead, addressing another immediate need.

    Kuntz’s split and ss were even better than Kraft’s, but he’s a small school guy and I don’t know much about his game. His athelticism looks to be elite though.

  20. BK26

    I get that this is a good draft and a very good outcome, and that we basically have little to no chance of moving up. And I have also resigned that I am wrong with thinking this: if they don’t get a quarterback with the first pick, I don’t think the team catches up to being a Super Bowl contender and will be in the worst spot in the sport: middling. Too good to have a shot at a top talent, too bad to actually, seriously compete. That won’t change as long and Pete is there.

    Geno is more good than not. That’s about all that we can safely say about him. He isn’t a difference maker. Lock…was signed for one year so that we have 2 quarterbacks. There is no long-term solution and no long-term plan for the team. I see a very big hole at the most important position in the game, and it’s only going to get bigger and bigger each year.

    I watched the entire Super Bowl and my only thought it that we don’t have a quarterback that can compete with these two. After this draft, that’s definitely not going to change.

    I also know that this is a situational mock draft, and once again, at #5 we basically have no choice but to wait and see what falls to us. I’ve basically set myself up to have my one big personal vacation weekend to be ruined within the first 40 minutes or so.

    • Peter

      I think there’s still a chance to have an awesome draft weekend.

      For me it’s always cool seeing the names here get selected ideally by our own team.

      Last year was great.

      I was happy as could very the year we got Wilson.

      A little dispirited that the best chance we’ve had to get a superstar at the position in a decade and it seems like every team under the sun but us would consider a move up.

      It’s weird living in a world where one good not great season is enough for us to think that the most important position on the field is not important.

      • Peter

        As happy as could be….edit

        • BK26

          Agreed. It just stinks that we are stuck at “wait and see.”

          It’s weird how spoiled Seahawk fans have gotten. The loyalty is impressive but a lot of perspective gets lost.

          Same thing happened last year: wasn’t happy with the Cross pick, but for me, literally every other pick couldn’t have gone better.

          I just have stupidly decided that it all hinges on taking a quarterback at 5. For how the next few years will be.

          I will eventually warm up to it all, but I’m ready to just be back near the top. And that’s the only outlet that I see.

          Always appreciate your perspective.

    • Phil

      BK – The Seahawks have gone to the superbowl with 2 qbs – Wilson and Hasselbeck. I thought Matt was a good qb, but would I have used a first-round pick on him? No. So, don’t be so quick to assume that we need a first-round QB to get to the big game. We have done it before wth an outstanding running game, a first rate OL, and some luck. If we miss out on a qb, we can concentrate on the rest of the roster where we need lots of help.

      • God of Thunder

        Hmmm maybe we should reconsider Hasselbeck a bit?

        We got 9 years of excellent play out of his years here, wherein he garnered 3 Pro Bowl invites and we almost won a SB.

        If someone said you can draft a Hasselbeck career guy at 1.5 this spring, wouldn’t we jump at that?

        Looking at Richardson, Stroud, Young and Levis, just statistically how likely is it that the league gets a Luck and a Burrow out of these 4? We COULD! But I’m thinking a Vick, a Pennington, and a Wentz +

        There’s probably a Mahomes/Allen franchise QB available, but which one is it? I like aspects of each of the 4, but I see flaws in all. I guess Stroud is the safest pick (my preference is for Levis to fall to 5) but we won’t know for a few years.

        • Phil

          God of Thunder – Hasselbeck went in the 6th round to Green Bay. Can you imagine? I was at the Superbowl in Detroit when the Seahawks lost to the Steelers (and some poor officiating). But, what a halftime show — Stevie Wonder followed by the Rolling Stones!

          I agree that Stroud is most likely the safest of the big 4, followed by Young. Only time will tell, as you say.

  21. Joe Strummer

    Mingo to the Chiefs breaks my fantasy draft heart.

    Great article as always! Thanks again.

  22. SpennyDunks

    Nice to know theres NT options beyond R2 so we arent forced into taking Mazi Smith. NT just has to clog up space and it sounds like this guy could do it, and with a great mix of vets and rooks on either side of him, and Anderson added to Nwosu, we can finally feel good about the front 7.

  23. London Seahawk

    I love everything about this mock. Commitment to the trenches, and the double dip from Alabama would be extremely cool.

    It would also have a side benefit of not being divisive! The whole fanbase would get behind a draft like this. Am not sure how much that counts for anything really – but it’s something.

    Richardson or Anderson. Exciting times either way.

    PS. Thanks – Peter, geoff u and Brodie for replies y-day – sorry I didn’t get a chance to respond. Appreciated your comments.

  24. Ashish

    Rob, great options with non QB #5. I have 2 questions.
    1) If hawks are going for top TE, will not be better to invest in WR like Josh Downs. In long run WR are expensive vs TE.
    2) Getting running back in 3rd round who can catch/3 down player plus security blanket for K9 will be ideal. Thoughts?

    • bv eburg

      100% Ashish on both points.
      If the hawks do draft a TE this high they will have 4 TE’s. Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think they ever carried 4 on game day roster. Are they going to now? How would they stash 1 if needed?

      • GrittyHawk

        If they take a TE early they will almost certainly trade Fant, which also saves over $6M against the cap with no dead money.

        • Steve Nelsen

          The problem with this scenario is assuming another team would trade for Fant and take on this salary. By picking up his 5th-year option, Seattle guaranteed him a top-10 salary for the position. And he isn’t a top-10 player.

          I can see Seattle using a Day 3 pick on an athletic project like Colby Parkinson as a 2024 hedge but I think they have too many needs at other positions in 2023 where good players will be available to use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a position that might be a need in 2024. Maybe they keep Fant and extend him or Dissly or both to manage the cap.

          • GrittyHawk

            I don’t think it’s crazy to believe there will be teams interested in Fant. He has the 15th-highest cap number for TEs in 2023. He’s a little bit more expensive but compares favorably to other TEs in that price range, and likely has higher upside than any of them. I would take Fant over Dawson Knox ($6.4M), Tyler Conklin ($6.1M), Jonnu Smith ($6.0M), or Mo Alie-Cox ($5.3M). Plenty of teams out there are willing to overpay for a receiving TE, especially when it will only cost them a day 3 draft pick.

            • Andy J

              I mean not many teams are going to value that for only one season.

              That’s why the Seahawks gave him a 5th year option. They were always planning on his first year being a slow-introduction (especially with the Dissly contract) and this being the year he puts up or shuts up.

              I don’t know why I care, but I just find myself oddly annoyed by how the fan base talks about the TEs and Fant (in particular). This position group is a team strength. They’re not drafting anyone else. They’re gonna let this year play out and re-evaluate next year.

              • GrittyHawk

                But that’s the exact same argument people make against drafting a QB this year, and it makes equally little sense. Why wait until next year when we could potentially have 0 of these 3 TEs on the roster? Then what, we blindly hope next year’s TE class aligns with our draft positions, and assume a rookie can replace their collective production? Or we force ourselves into overpaying for a need like we’ve already done with Dissly? Would you be happy this time next year if we handed out a multi-year $6M/yr to an oft-injured and thoroughly mediocre player like Jonnu Smith?

                Besides, it’s a position of strength as a whole, but none of these players is a true standout. If you can find a player at the end of R2 or in R3 who can replace both Dissly and Fant next year, it’s a move you should consider. None of that precludes us from drafting a WR too. This is an exercise is long-term roster building. Not every move has to address your most immediate needs. For a team I don’t expect to be a contender this season, what we need is to take the most talented player on the board.

                • Peter

                  Re: wr and te’s.

                  I fully agree with your thoughts on being out of TE’s next year. Just scrambling again for the position.

                  On the note of WR I’m very interested in ford-wheaton and my personal sleeper priority udfa parker washington.

                • Andy J

                  QBs and TEs are completely different positional values!!! Like… the most important player on your team vs one of the least most important players on your team.

                  I guess my disagreement with you Gritty is that you can replace TEs cheaply. You can probably replace RBs cheaply. Definitely not WRs. But also I think our current TEs are better than many are giving them credit for. I’ll be happy next year if Fant is a top 5 TE, which I think is possible. I’d probably prefer us offer him a contract before he blows up.

                  • Purpleneer

                    Yup, but also there is the fact that we are not close to QB actually being a position of strength. Geno was not nearly as good in 22 as most think, and improvement on it really shouldn’t be expected. Maybe he wasn’t named starter through camp but he was certainly treated like it with all the reps, he’s been with the team a few years and got multiple games in 21 to show it.
                    So much of his positive numbers last year were pretty stinking fake if you watched the games and season play out.

        • Ashish

          We don’t want to use top picks to fix existing cap situation. Instead we can draft top WR and figure out TE position next year. We are not going to gett anything in return for Fant with TE market so what’s the point.

          • bv eburg

            And why would a team trade for Fant this year when they can draft a cheap one in a deep TE class? I wouldn’t just assume a trade and then you have 4 TE’s on a team that usually carries 3 on game day.

            • Rob Staton

              You can trade Fant after the draft, to a team who missed out in the draft

            • GrittyHawk

              1) Some teams might have bigger needs and not enough picks
              2) Some teams might want to take a TE but miss out if there is a run on them (which is what Rob said in his mock)
              3) Fant is an established player which could appeal to contending teams
              4) Fant would probably only cost a 4th/5th round pick, whereas the top TEs who will contribute this year will probably be long gone by then
              5) Fant can be extended, which can lower his cap hit and still end up cheaper than overpaying one on the open market next year

              Sorry but “why trade for a player when you can just draft a rookie” is not how competitive NFL teams operate. As I said above, Fant has the 15th-highest cap hit for TEs this year so it’s hardly a cap-killing contract. Who are you drafting in the 4th round who will have the type of impact Fant could in the right situation? There are plenty of reasons why someone would want him at that price. And really, I think you’re overreacting to the downside possibility of carrying 4 TEs on the roster. This is a team that uses lots of 2-3 TE sets, and with Dissly’s and Parkinson’s injury histories it would be far from the worst thing in the world to have a lot of depth at the position, particularly knowing this pick will save you millions next year when you can comfortably cut Dissly or let Fant walk.

      • Cheese22

        A case could be made that Bellore is a the 4th/emergency RB.

  25. Peanut

    What i like the most about your mocks and projections Rob is your reasoning. You combine what the team has said, done, the profiles they have targetted, their history, long term needs etc. This results in thoughts that aren’t just “PFF says we need a DT so we need to just pick one” as some mocks does. Great work again!

  26. Scott

    Dream draft. The tight end that early in a tightend rich draft is questionable but otherwise this draft would make this team so much better quickly.

    • Rob Staton

      I’d say if you don’t take a tight end there you’ve missed the ones worth having

      It’s top heavy

      • Mr Drucker in hooterville

        Random thought: What can Seattle benefit by trading/cutting Dissly?

        • geoff u

          Pretty sure cutting Dissly creates 2.65 million in dead money this year, so that’s a negative benefit.

        • cha

          Nothing from cutting him. Pre-June costs them extra money and post-June doesn’t gain enough to be worthwhile.

          Trading him post-June opens up $6m but the trade comp would be very, very low.

          • Hoggs41

            Im 100% on board with a TE in the first 2 rounds. Kills a couple birds with one stone. Can get you set up for future at TE as well as now and it can also open up cap space if you trade Fant.

  27. Andy J

    This is a similar comment to the above debate about a RB > TE.

    But if Hyatt and Mingo are still on the board, I see no way the Hawks target a TE. You’ve said yourself this WR class is top heavy. While I definitely agree w/ a BPA approach, I just don’t see them adding to a position group that had great/near-elite production last year. A TE4 is an unaffordable luxury at a moment when the team is cash-strapped and is in a compete-now mindset. Especially when there are GLARING holes at the RB2 and WR3 position. If Kraft is just all around better than Hyatt and Mingo, then maybe. I don’t see them considering a TE this draft (unless late).

  28. bv eburg

    I’ve already made my case for a RB instead of TE so why not go one further! Right after RB before TE I would argue WR before TE. If one of Lockett or DK go down teams will just stack the box and now both our running and passing games are unreliable. How bad does Geno start playing above his skillset then? Ugh

    • God of Thunder

      My preference is a mix of yours and Rob’s. WR first, not only to get a WR3 but as a hedge against injuries to our top two (and a Lockett successor?), then TE from a top heavy class, finally RB from a large pool of potentially decent RBs.

      Or just draft Bijan. Boom: RB and WR and TE positions filled 😉

      • Andy J

        I have a secret, weird desire that Bijan lasts until 20 and we take him despite the clear need for d-line help. Mainly it’s just because of how Rob talks about him as one of the only Top 5 talents in this draft. A good way to justify such unrealistic fantasies is to imagine KW3 or Bijan on the field at the same time, with one or the other playing a slot WR role, with an emphasis on lots of jet sweeps.

        • bv eburg

          A OC’s dream having bijan and walker on the field coupled with DK and Lockett at WR. We have solid TE’s so if you draft a high end 3rd WR it would be a nightmare for a defense to cover.

          • RC3

            No offense coordinator ever had a dream involving Geno Smith at QB.

            • God of Thunder


            • bv eburg

              Pete said he had two number 1 qb’s. Sounds like you are calling bullshit to that?

  29. ShowMeYourHawk

    Interesting mock. As mentioned by others, this would put us in quite the QB pickle if Geno is merely mediocre this season and Lock doesn’t show us much. Unless they both bob out and we’re picking Top 5 again, it’s going to cost a king’s ransom to move up to the top of the draft and take the “heir apparent.” Should the draft shake out like this, we’re firmly in “Geno better be the real thing” territory, of which I’m highly dubious.

    If JS and Pete really love a QB at the top of this draft, leaning hard into trading for #2 or #3 would benefit us this year, as we have #5 in the back pocket. May need to concede some 2024 second or mid-round picks to ensure the move. Waiting until next offseason however, when we’ll likely have a pick around #22-25, is going to impact our early round draft capital in 2025, as well.

  30. olyhawksfan

    Trenches trenches trenches. I like it.

    Your justification for PHI taking Carter is a logical and realistic prediction, stop that.

    Geno will never be as good as prime Russ, but if they can build a strong D and a great run game then who knows, maybe Geno can do enough to take us far.

    • geoff u

      Carter is so hard to predict right now. SOMEBODY is eventually going to take him, but who and where?

  31. geoff u

    Love it and hate it, but in either case this is a very real possibility that we should be prepared for. But damn would it suck missing out on one of the four horsemen. In this case, I’d really want us to trade up, but as we’ve discussed on here, trade up with who? The only real potential is Houston, but are they willing to risk missing out on Bryce and end up with either Anderson or Levis/Richardson? Possibly. Bryce might even make it to 5, if no one trades with Arizona. I guess it depends what we give them.

    Rob, if there is a trade up with Arizona, do you think it’ll happen before the draft? Or on draft day?

    I also wonder if that’ll force some of these other QB needy teams to try and trade up with Houston and give them an offer they can’t refuse. Houston is in such a great spot now.

    • geoff u

      Also, essentially swapping 124 for 90 to move around in the draft and still get the guys you’re targeting would be masterful. Typical Schneider move.

  32. Beacon of half truth

    Like those picks. Disappointed as hell Seahawks won’t get one of the QBs.

  33. cha

    I like this mock a lot, and not just for the Seahawks picks. Great work Rob.

    Kancey has been slipping a bit in national mocks as well.

    Do you think that’s purely the size concern that is holding him out of the top-20 in many mocks?

    Those testing numbers were insane and he has production to match. The biggest projection you have to make is can he keep himself clean with less than ideal arm length.

    • Roy Batty

      I’ve seen and read more than a few national talkings heads stuck on his arm length. They just cannot get over it, no matter what the film shows.

      • cha

        I’m rooting for him, and I’m probably not very objective.

        It’s mainly because I ID’d him so early and pushed for him here. I suck at scouting and I need to enjoy the 2x a day the broken clock is right.

        • Peter

          “I suck at scouting.”

          Also Cha: here’s a 3000 word breakdown of 17 games with attack points, weaknesses, charts, graphs, and detailed watch points.

          • cha

            LOL, point taken.

            But scouting college players and projecting their pro fit is a totally different skill. One I don’t have much of.

      • dregur

        In their defense, there have literally been a handful of DT’s/DE’s with that arm length drafted, none have really been all that successful. And with the trenches being all about that leverage, can he be successful at the pro-level?

        And I’m saying this as a person that like him a lot at DT. But I do question fit in this defense, and think he’d be better as a traditional 3T in a 4-3.

  34. Roy Batty

    Sorry if this has already been addressed, but what is your opinion of Zach Kuntz?

    Will he go earlier than you’re comfortable with? Is he worth a late day 2 pick?

    Thanks for the dedication to your “hobby”, Rob.

    • Rob Staton

      I think he’s an athlete you have to teach how to play his position from almost scratch

    • Ben

      From the Konz to the Kuntz who doesn’t love a position less athlete!

  35. Canadian Hawk

    Great work Rob,

    With respect to LB – do you see the team making another signing or two? Add via the draft? Or go with BW/Bush and wait for Brooks to get back?

  36. Palatypus

    Rob wrote, “#23 Baltimore — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
    Not sure how this would go down in Pittsburgh…”

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  37. cha

    #90 — Jaquelin Roy (DT, LSU)
    The Seahawks need a nose tackle and Roy could go in this range. He’s a character fit for Seattle and the one thing he does that will really appeal is he plays a ton of snaps. They can put a heavy workload on him and he’ll get the job done.

    Astute with this one.

    Reed and Jones also eat snaps up like crazy.

    Starting to wonder if that is their defensive plan – ditch the mediocre five 30-55% snappers for three quality 60-80% snappers and fill around them with speed at LB and depth at OLB and safety.

    • Roy Batty

      My dream scenario is a team full of speedy animals. I want everyone in the front 7 swarming the ball carrier, no matter how far off the play they are. It’s what the Niners excel at.

  38. Trevor

    Watching Richardsons Pro Day and I am feeling better by the minute of that $50 I put on him to go #1 overall.

    His raw talent is unlike anything I have ever seen. Seriously if you are the Panthers and David Tepper how do you not take a shot on this kid? Stroud and Young will likely be quality NFL starters but Richardson has the potential be a superstar.

    • Phil

      I don’t read much on SDB about what a great running threat Richardson would be. While he is Red shirting as a thrower, he could still be a change of pace guy running the read option a few times each game, or maybe playing as an R/PO QB .

  39. Gaux Hawks

    Surprised to see you go for Kraft over Mingo

    Punt TE to next year, I’m not big on getting a TE before R3

    • Rob Staton

      I love Mingo, doesn’t mean the Seahawks will

      And this is a great TE class, many teams will want to tap into it

      Kraft has elite traits for his position

  40. KnoxHawk

    Richardson’s arm and throwing motion is a thing of beauty.

  41. Ben

    Shout out again to the Julius Brent interview, that was probably my fav one you’ve done this year. Would love it if he ended up on the Hawks.

    Feels like a pretty reasonable needs based draft but didn’t really go hard away from BPA when you look at where guys were picked. Even a center at 32 feels less exciting, the pick at 58 is good, and not really a luxury considering future roster needs. And if you’re drafting a TE to show out as a rookie well you’ve got bigger problems.

    Hard to complain and matches the style of last years draft.

  42. samprassultanofswat

    Rob. If you get chance you have to listen to what Brock Huard said about Wisconsin LB Nick Herbig. This guy is a baller. Herbig said he likes to run through through people. 13 TFLs. Nerbig is a monster. He comes from good family. When you listen to Brock talk about Herbig, you swear he was talking about T.J. Watt.

    • Rob Staton

      Another tweener though

  43. AL

    This is a really good mock draft. Its very plausible that a team such as Atlanta would trade up to #3 to select a QB. Anderson at #5, I agree they will be delighted. I really like your picks of Adetomiwa Adebawore and John Michael Schmitz as they could be legit targets. I just don’t know that I see a TE at #53 as I think PCJs could go several different directions at this point and filling needs may be more important than drafting for the future..

    It certainly looks like the plan in the draft is to finish rebuilding the defensive front seven and draft a center to solidify the offensive line.

    Who knows, improved defense and offensive line, consistent good play from Geno and a few other pieces here and there from the draft and I could see the Seahawks maybe maybe being good enough for a run in the playoffs.

    • BK26

      That’s what worries me: only good enough for maybe a playoff run. For years.

      • AL

        I was really hoping for a QBOTF at 5, but we may have to settle for Geno being the guy.

        • Hawk Finn

          Cool mock. I love the strategy behind all of these picks… in mock form.

          Sorry, but not getting a QB in reality will be unacceptable. And I have a mind to write a very stern letter to the editor if that comes to pass. Try me, Vulcan.

  44. Steve Nelsen

    Now this is a draft that would be a major boost to Seattle’s front 7 overhaul. I love it.

    We can debate the need for TE but Kraft would be a solid pick if the FO feels TE is a need.

    You had Josh Downs off the board for Seattle but another WR that we need to follow is Bryce Ford-Wheaton. Only 2 other players in draft history had his combination of size (6-4) and athleticism. Both of them (DK Metcalf and Tariq Woolen) are Seahawk stars. You know Seattle’s coaches must be looking at BFW as another project with All-Pro potential.

  45. Blitzy the Clown

    Rob I don’t think you’ve published a mock where Seattle don’t take Byron Young.

    Is that a personal preference on your part, or do you see him as sort of a Seahawks lock?

    • Rob Staton

      I’m sure I’ve done one without him at least but I do think he’s a great fit

      • Peter

        A sub – game I play is which of Rob’s players are the sneaky hawks pick. Young is one.

        I know you mocked mingo to the Chiefs but for whatever reason I see him as one as well.

        Ade Ade feels right. Big big fan of Keion White but until I see any interest I’ve kind of moved off him for the hawks.

  46. Blitzy the Clown

    Anyone know anything about Houston 6-1 241lb OLB Derek Parish?

    Dude had quite a pro day workout:

    6.76 3C
    4.07 SS
    37″ vJ
    4.62s 40yd
    1.60s 10yd

  47. Denver Hawker

    My Top 5 Board for the Hawks:
    1. Stroud
    2. Richardson
    3. Anderson
    4. Young
    5. Levis

    Still super stoked to get any one of them- just an absolute luxury pick thanks to the Broncos and Russ. I’m not worried about any of the flaws in these players, each has All-Pro upside and bust downside.

  48. Julian L

    I think many of the Seahawks fan community are sleeping on Evan Brown as the starter at Center for 2023.

    Though he was a back up in Detroit it was to one of the best Center’s in the NFL. Being a back up to Frank Ragnow, could still place you in the top 10 at the position. I don’t have all the grades, but I believe the Lions still had one of the best Offensive Lines in 2021 whilst Brown was starting in place of the injured Ragnow?

    John Schneider has admitted he’s been hired to play in the Center position. Also whilst I’m sure Brown hasn’t been guaranteed the starting role in 2023, I doubt the Seahawks at this point intend to trade up with early day two pick to draft a Center, which’ll more or less affirm Brown into another back up role. I think Brown has been given at least some assurance, that he’ll be in a strong position to compete for the starting role.

    I like also what I see of Evan Brown in the position. He’s here initially for just 1 year, so I’m very much up for drafting a development Center from a position of BPA, from Cody Mauch, Braeden Daniels, Ricky Stomberg, Luke Wyler, Jon Gaines II amongst other options and let them compete.

    • Julian L

      One to watch Ricky Stromberg? 310lbs, 4.47 shuttle, 7.41 cone, 32.5 inch Vert, 9ft3 broad, 33 1/4 inch arms
      No sacks allowed in all 12 games in 2022.

      I don’t know much of how he plays (seems pretty important!), but those stats are very Creed Humphrey’s.

    • Simon

      Well said. We can let the draft come to us when it comes to centres.

      Given that Evan Brown is probably better than Phil Haynes, drafting a guard could be more beneficial than a centre so if we only hit IOL once we shouldn’t be surprised or disappointed if it’s a guard.

  49. Neverplayedadown

    Curious on Roy, the combine shows that he is slightly of 300 lbs. Al Woods and Mone are both north of 340lbs. Seems like Roy is a bit light for NT duties at least in comparison to their previous players at that position.

    • Brodie

      Al Woods was 309 lb at the combine. Roy was 305.

      I posted a podcast below from the Athletic where Lance Zierlein talks about how teams are using some crazy new methods to project how some of these guys will fill out in the future. I want to same bone density and lean muscle mass were metrics. They could basically tell where a guy would cap out with ‘good’ weight.

      Between stuff like that, background checks with friends/family/coaches, interviews and who knows what else, it really makes you realize how much we aren’t privvy to about the process…

  50. Palatypus

    You know, if Atlanta is going to trade up to get a quarterback they should probably do it now. On draft day the price is going to go WAY up.

  51. Jordan

    Atlanta and Tennessee still needing QBs after spending picks akin to drafting someone like Abe Lucas is why I am glad Seattle passed on the likes of Ridder and Willis last year.

  52. Trevor

    Not sure how they pull it off but truly believe the Hawks should be trying to move up to 3. I like Anderson but don’t see him as a difference maker. If they can come out of this draft with Richardson or Stroud it is a game changer for the franchise. Really think JS should do whatever it takes to make it happen.

    • Trevor

      I know the Cardinals are in the same division but if the Hawks offer them a 1st next year then by trading down to 5 instead of 7 or later they can still get Anderson if he is the guy they covet and were going to take anyways. Could be ideal scenario for both teams. Hawks get Richardson and the Cardinals get the player they want Anderson and another 1st next year.

    • cha

      Wild hair on the back of a napkin:

      Offer Houston #5, #20, their 2nd round pick in 2024, Darrell Taylor and Noah Fant for #2 and #33 this year.

      Seahawks assure a QB pick, offload about $9m in cap and can probably reason away the guy they would’ve liked at 20 will either be there or have an equivalent at 33. They can spend the night fielding offers for #33 or stay put and pick 3x in the 2nd round.

      Boye Mafe takes all of Taylor’s snaps and they can add another edge in the draft. At 33 they can take Ade Ade, Mazi Smith, JMS or an offensive weapon that falls to them.

      Houston is still guaranteed a QB or Will Anderson, they move up in the first round to 20 and have tons of options there.

      They add talent to a garbage roster with two team-control years of Taylor and a nice safety valve for Davis Mills in Noah Fant with a reasonable one-year tryout to see how they like him.

      They enter 2024 with 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks. If they got Anderson, they’ve got two good edges to work with and can shoot the moon to trade up for the top QB with their stock. If they got a QB, they can simply add weapons and offensive linemen.

      • Trevor

        I would be down with that for sure.

      • Big Mike

        Some of the greatest songs of our lives were written on the backs of napkins cha.
        Don’t forget Houston has #12 overall too. This would give them 3 picks in the top 20. Talk about a chance to turn your franchise around in a hurry.
        Are PCJS bold enough to do this? Doubtful.

      • BK26

        Pay the Iron Price!

        I would even flip #20 for next year’s 1st instead. Helps them get ammo for next year if they like that class.

        They bet on the hope of us having a bad year, we get to keep a pick to use immediately.

        I could be John wanting to go get someone. Pete….doubtful as Mike said.

      • geoff u

        I’m in

        • CL

          So I’ve been playing a lot with the idea of trading with Houston, but was pretty sure it’s not gonna happen from Houston’s side.
          But 3 Picks in the top 20 sounds definitely enticing.

          Let’s play the what if game, when would be the most probable time for a trade like that?

          If the Panthers take Bryce Young and the Hawks move up to get Stroud?

          • Cysco

            Three things need to be true for your scenario to happen.

            1. Someone needs to trade up to #3. This likely guarantees that the top four picks are going to be QBs.
            2. Seattle needs to be all in on at least one of the QBs
            3. Houston needs to be open to drafting Will Anderson (which would be set up by #1&2 happening)

            If QBs are set up to go 1-4 and Houston is cool with Anderson, Seattle would be in a position to make the swap. It probably wouldn’t even cost that much since it would be the only scenario where Houston get’s the guy they want and gets compensation for it.

            If Houston wants Anderson, and picks 1,3,4 are locked in for QBs, why not trade with Seattle and grab a free 2nd or something?

          • geoff u

            Arizona trading down pre-draft might force our hand. However, if Arizona waits till draft day, then Houston will have already have picked by then. We could in theory trade for whomever Houston picked, I believe that’s happened before.

            • Cysco

              Exactly right.

              If a trade for #3 is going to happen it needs to happen before Houston’s pick.

      • AL

        This is an interesting thought and would be fun to watch play out. They get their QBOTF, but in the process may lose out on Ade Ade and/or Mazi Smith.

        I just don’t think PCJs has any interest in moving up for a QB. They appear to be fine moving forward with Geno. The likeliest outcome at this point is a QB falling to them at 5 and I think they’re ok with that.

        If someone trades up to #3 and takes a QB and Anderson falls to them at 5, I think they’re more than ok with that happening.

        • cha

          It won’t happen but it was an interesting exercise.

  53. STTBM

    Rob, I think your mock is impressive, and I like all the guys you have for Seattle. Is be bummed missing out on the top 4 and but looks like a very likely outcome.

    It also hurts watching Mingo go one pick ahead. You really think Seattle does nothing to remedy their utter lack of a WR3 till the fourth round or lower? I guess that wouldn’t surprise me one bit, though I don’t like it. Were one WR injury away from having an offense that implodes with only two WRs who offer any threat to defenses. And having four TEs won’t fix the issue.

  54. Andrew

    Rob, long time reader of the blog here and first time commenting. I really appreciate the immense amount of work you put into your blog. It is by far, hands down the best analysis of the Seahawks offseason and draft, particularly.

    This mock, for me, would be a “worst case” top 5 draft scenario for the Hawks. I really want to come out of the draft with one of the “Big 4” QBs. That being said, this “worst case” isn’t that bad at all – Will Anderson is a nice consolation prize, although as you’ve repeatedly stated, I don’t think he is an elite talent on the level of a Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett. I see Will Anderson as a step below, perhaps in the mold of a Cliff Avril.

    Love Ade Ade in the late first. I would love to grab Mazi Smith in the second and one of the two centers (Wypler or JMS).

    Anderson, Ade Ade, and Mazi Smith on top of our free agent acquisitions would go a long way towards improving the defense.

    As somebody recently said, Will Anderson is the best pick at 5 for 2023; but a QB would be best for the long term future of our franchise.

    • Jeffrey matson

      I totally agree with this Andrew.

  55. Scot04

    Loved both your last two mocks as they show both with & without QBs at #5.
    Would be thrilled with either.
    If we do land Anderson, I wonder what the backlash in AZ would be if he outperforms expectations & does become a top 5 type edge in the league.
    This draft reminds me of Schneider talking about how optimistic his scouts were when they thought they were going to get pick #3 or #4; However, they still had options at #5.
    I truly believe he was banking on a QB with picks #3 or #4.
    Regardless I’ll take this 3 round group of players any day.
    Perhaps we get YaYa Diaby & Anthony Bradford in the 5th, Rodriguez in the 6th, & Jordan Howden in the 7th.

  56. Henry Taylor

    A QB would be great but I do really like this draft. The Dline additions in both Free Agency and the draft might mean we finally have a defense that can create pressure and stop the run for the whole season (rather than the brief stretch we have been treated too annually before a predictable return to the mean).

    It would mean we are missing out on the opportunity to draft a long term QB for a while though, so we’d have to be completely on board the Geno wagon to be winning a Super Bowl in this window.

  57. Brett

    From what I’ve seen, Colts only had area scouts at Stroud, Young, and Levis’s pro days, but sent their chief personnel executive and former director of college scouting Morroco Brown to Richardson’s today… and a lot of people have been saying the way Steichen handled Hurts could make Richardson more favorable for him. I’d be happy with Levis but Richardson is my top wish and I’m getting worried the Colts will take him at #4.

  58. Bertelli

    Can you see a scenario where the Hawks might take picks 20,52 and 83 and package them to move up near the top 10 to get someone they really like that may be slipping a bit? I’d be jumping for joy if they had the #5, #10 picks and still kept #38. You never know who might be there at 10…..a QB, maybe they want Mayer
    or B Robinson or even Ade or McDonald if they think they won’t last to 20.

    I was thinking of someone like Philly might be willing to move down and still get their guy at 20. Just a thought though probably unlikely. Thanks for all the hard work you do.

    • Blitzy the Clown

      Not in this draft.

      There are 6-7 top 10 players, then a bunch of fringe first rounders. 5 of them will go top 5. The other 1 or 2 might last into the teens or 20s, but only because certain teams have certain needs.

      And I’m not sure Seattle’s needs align with taking one of those other two top 10 players — imo BJ Robinson and Michael Mayer — that early.

      I’d even argue that the prospects available at 20 won’t grade significantly better than those who will be available 10 picks later.

      • Bertelli

        I agree with you that the Hawks needs don’t particulary align with BJ Robinson or Mayer – was just looking at a trade value chart and starting exploring the idea of packaging those picks if someone they especially wanted fell that far (QB) or a stud defensive guy that might not make it to 20 (Ade, W McDonald types) Thanks for the feedback.

  59. Matt

    I think this is my favorite mock so far because they take Kroft in round 2. The only thing I wonder about is if they should just take Ade at 20 since his combine was so brilliant.

    My one question for Rob or commenters: Would ending up with Anderson instead of a QB at 5 have any impact on the Seahawks later picks?

    • Brett

      I could see the Seahawks taking Will McDonald at #20 or later if they trade down and don’t think they would make that pick if they selected Anderson at #5. So I think if they select Anderson they won’t take any more EDGE players later, but could take an EDGE later if they select at QB at #5, but don’t think it would impact any other positions/picks.

  60. samprassultanofswat

    If the Hawks did come away with Will Anderson (EDGE)
    Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE)
    John Michael Schmitz (C)
    Byron Young (DE)
    Jaquelin Roy (NT)
    Plus a legitimate TE. That would solve a ton of problems.

    I realize these guys are rookies. But come playoff time they are no longer rookies.

  61. Brodie

    Pretty interesting convo with Mike Sando and Lance Zierlein about Lance’s process for evaluating prospects and how it has changed. Specific to us based on the Hendon Hooker at #5 mock, and prospects discussed below.

    18:40 mark – They talk about Tennessee’s offense and how it’s the Art Briles (Baylor) offense and how friendly it is. Mentioned Hendon Hooker transferred from Va Tech and wasn’t very effective in a more conventional offense. Concerns about Hyatt and Tillman being products of the offense and how that scheme has propped up WR’s who haven’t amounted to much in the pros. System has also never produced a successful pro QB.

    27:30 mark – Guys Lance is higher or lower than consensus on and why (Drew Sanders, Michael Mayer, Jordan Addison, Paris Johnson, Miles Murphy, John Michael-Schmitz, Josh Downs).

  62. Brodie

    Appreciate the mock and all of the content Rob. The time and effort put into this site for our benefit is very much appreciated. Thanks!

    • Rob Staton

      Thank you

  63. diehard82

    Interesting “related” tidbit. Per Walter Football top 30 Private visit tracker. These are official top 30 visits, not combine meetings, or senior bowl meetings. Prospect hops on a plane and flies to team in question for private visit.

    Julius Brentz 30 teams. Whew! He must be one jet-lagged young lad. Just how high will he rise?

    Jalen Carter? 4 visits. Lions, (Tigers) and Bears, oh my! Plus Eagles and Falcons. Only 4. You gotta believe anyone seriously interested would be hosting a private visit. So if he’s not taken at 6, 8, 9 or 10, how far does he fall?

    At the risk of sounding cruel, I think a “pick the jalen carter pick” contest could be fun.

    • diehard82

      nevermind, bogus info. my bad. gotta learn to read better.

    • Steve Nelsen

      Is there a place with good info on Jalen Carter’s top-30 visits?

      I don’t think a team would draft him without talking to him first.

      • Rob Staton

        Apparently he only has four visits set up.

        • geoff u

          Three visits set up, the fourth was a meeting with the Falcons at the combine, apparently.

    • EIEIO

      I think he gonna fall to Lions at #18 based on Dan Campbell interview (smokescreen) the other day. Maybe to Eagles at #10 but I think they’ll take a CB instead.

  64. Matt


    What happens if the Seahawks stay at #5, but take another player OTHER than the top 4 QB’s or Will Anderson?

    Is there any scenario where you’d be ok with that? Or would you lambaste them for having a franchise QB or excellent DE on their plate and passed them over…?

    • John

      We’ve been down on Tyree Wilson because he is a prototypical 4-3 end at 275 lbs…. but we’ve been stocking up on DT’s who are 280-285 lbs. As if Wilson couldn’t put on 5-10 lbs of meat on that epic frame. He seems like the type of move they could make to make us question our sanity.

  65. KHF

    IF the Seahawks have their eye on one or two of the QBs, it would not surprise me to see them trade with Arizona. Why would the Cards do that deal? Because they get to stay in the Top 5, and they would likely still have a shot at Anderson. If they drop to #8 they run the risk of another team jumping in front of them and grabbing the defender they were planning to take there. They’re going to want a LOT to drop to the back end of the Top 10. Will the Falcons want to pay that price? Yes, from Arizona’s point of view, trading with Seattle helps a division rival. But that division rival has a Top 5 pick anyways. They’re going to improve even if you don’t trade with them. So why not trade with them, get some additional draft capital, and STILL be in the Top 5?

    Granted, all of that is only possible IF Seattle is completely sold on one or two of the QBs. And I’m not saying I think it will happen. Just that I wouldn’t be surprised if it did happen.

    • Rob Staton

      You can’t do it if you’re Arizona

      No player you draft at 5 will be worth gifting Seattle a franchise QB

      • KHF

        Yeah, that makes sense. Hadn’t thought about that. And I wonder if that dynamic actually causes Arizona to be willing to give a trade partner a “discount”. By trading they’re giving themselves MORE draft capital AND hurting Seattle. Maybe they’re willing to accept a lower price for that two-for-one?

      • Dingbatman

        So Arizona quarterback-blocks the Seahawks while in turn gifting them arguably the best defensive player in the draft? One who could immediately start terrorizing Kyler Murray for years to come?

        The earliest Richardson would begin to contribute would be Sept 2024 and that is an absolute best case scenario. If Will Anderson starts tearing it up in AZ this season and becomes someone they can build the defense around they would have their defensive centerpiece. Someone they could market and sell jerseys yada yada yada. The red shirt year gives them some time to take heat off.

        It could actually be a win win for both teams.

        • Rob Staton

          Do I really need to argue/explain this guys?

          If Arizona trades down and gets a haul with Vegas or Atlanta, nobody is going to be saying ‘OMG YOU LET THE SEAHAWKS GET A CERTAIN PLAYER TWO PICKS LATER!’

          If the Cardinals literally trade WITH the Seahawks and they get a franchise QB, setup to kick their arse for the next decade, that will be on the GM’s career tombstone.

          We waste too much time talking about this. The Cardinals are not trading with the Seahawks.

          • Rob Staton

            There are suddenly multiple reports linking the Seahawks with a trade up to #3

            Check out my twitter feed for the details

            I will happily eat crow if it happens but I’m still massively sceptical

            • KHF

              Thanks for acknowledging, Rob. The honesty is appreciated!

    • AC

      Problem with that is Seattle could take Anderson at 3.

      • GoHawksDani

        Then ARI could trade again for a haul with one of the 3 teams to get QB4

  66. Joe

    I would be curious to know what draft picks they started with and what they ended up with to see what draft capital they gave up overall for these players. There were lots of trades!

    • Rob Staton

      It’s listed in the trades section in the article

  67. Jonathan Evison

    i, for one, would be thrilled if things fell like this for the hawks . . .

  68. GoHawksDani

    Not a huge fan. Good players, and would hate to miss out on AdeAde, but I think they need to take shots at QB. Lock is not the answer, Geno won’t likely stay for year 3. Anderson is a safe pick for #5, so I’d gamble on #20 and take Hooker if he’s available. Probably won’t be the QBOTF, but one can never know how they develop. If the team would get better next year they’ll likely pick between #17-25. It’ll be hard to get QBOTF and I wouldn’t risk only trying next year.
    This mock is a safe group. Probably all could start soon and be relatively good. But still no QB, no WR3, no RB2 no clear OG1.
    If this would be how things shape up, I’d rather not move much. Get Anderson, Hooker in R1. Then Benton, then trade up a couple of spots and get Wypler.
    #84 could be Young.
    Then they’d get a great EDGE, a QB with the floor to be a backup and ceiling as a starter for next year, a DT who could play NT and DE too maybe? A C that fits their profile and a good DE.
    3 defensive guy for the DL and 2 for the offense. Some who’ll start and has great potential and a lottery ticket QB.

  69. Bertelli

    Sorry if this has been discussed previously, but why is Ade Ade not rated higher than someone like Myles Murphy, who seems to overrated yet he goes 8 picks earlier? Is it just a team scheme thing? With the insane testing numbers, long arms, senior bowl performance, etc., I fear Ade won’t be there even at 20 which is why I previously posted about moving up from 20 if needed. Thanks

    • Rob Staton

      Probably just the same reason that Abe Lucas lasted to R3…

      • Bertelli

        Most likely. Your excellent write ups always get me salivating over a player and now I feel like we have to have Ade. I just figured there would be a reason why someone like him with those testing skills would fall to the 20’s. Thanks.

        • Roy Batty

          Clemson has a lot more TV time than Northwestern. Northwestern only gets on national TV when they’re playing OSU and Michigan.

          And, Clemson was the “it” school for a few years, so the exposure they get is much more substantial, even though they’ve been trending down.

          Put Ade in a Clemson jersey and he’s in the top 10, possibly.

  70. JP

    I feel like an Atlanta trade up is not that likely this season. Feels to me the vibe is they’re hyping up Ridder as the future for now, so it’d be odd to basically announce his replacement is now here before he gets a full season in as the starter. If Ridder is good, then no problem, if he sucks, the Falcons are probably trash and pick high again.

    • cha

      AR is worth dumping Ridder for the same way that Kyler Murray was worth dumping Josh Rosen, except they get to establish Ridder’s value with a redshirt year for AR.

      It is not hard to see them thinking that way.

    • EIEIO

      Raiders had dinner last night with Richardson, for what it’s worth. JimmieG is not a long term solution for LV, more of a bridge. Wouldn’t be surprised if they trade-up to get AR. Davis known to make a big splash.

  71. Feindt

    „Multiple Teams have taken Carter off their Draft Board.“ SURPRISE

    • Rob Staton

      Imagine my shock…

    • cha

      I’m not surprised.

      The news hitting that teams are taking him off is interesting though.

    • UkAlex6674

      What teams?

    • Big Mike

      Just when I start to think Cowherd isn’t a moron, he comes off today with this nugget during a discussion of the muscle pix Levis posted: “The Seahawks shouldn’t take Levis at #5. They should take Jalen Carter instead.

      • Peter

        Hey friend you’re falling into my trap.

        • Big Mike

          Well, yeah tho in my defense there’s not much else on between 9 AM and Noon for a retired guy to watch.

        • geoff u


      • Wilson502

        The Jalen Carter 🍆 riding train just continues. My oh my! Oh wait wrong sport 😂. At least MLB season starts today to distract me for the next month until draft day.

        • Big Mike

          With you brother. Go Ms!

  72. BoiseSeahawk

    man I am so glad Barton is gone!

  73. GoHawksDani

    Someone who understands how this football thing works…
    In a 3-4 or whatever the Hawks run the OLBs task is to rush the passer, sometimes cover guys for outbreaking or deep routes and seal the edges?
    And DEs seal the edge and sometimes rush the passer but more similar to DTs in a 4-3?

    Because in this scenario we’d have Anderson, Nwosu, Jones and maybe even Mafe and Taylor plays OLB too? (maybe they’re DEs) And Reed is definitely a DE and maybe Poona is a DE too? (or maybe he’s an NT)
    But seems like a ton of talented younger guys on the outer side. Not sure how good they are against the run but there’s some good young talent there.

    If I understand the scheme to some extent and think that Hawks would like to get better vs the run, then wouldn’t an NT be better at #20? Mazi Smith is a pretty good player and while won’t rush the passer as Ade but we’d have Anderson, Nwosu, Jones, Taylor and Mafe for that.
    The ILBs would be happy if they’d get a clear space to help vs the run, so while Ade is a better and more “visible”/statwise impactful guy, I’d probably choose Mazi because he might be able to have a bigger impact imo.

    Am I way off?

    • EIEIO

      Jones, Ade, Poona and Reed are DTs; they line-up to either side of the NT (Reed and Poona can also kick inside to NT). Anderson, Nwosu, Taylor and Made are Edge/OLB – sometimes standing, sometimes in a 3-point stance. DE is more a 4:3 position…2 DT inside and a DE on either end. Tyree Wilson, for example, is more of a DE fit than a 3:4 Edge/OLB. You want a guy who eats up a lot of space and can occupy double teams at NT in a 3:4. Mazi would be good. Al Woods, too. Hope that helps.

    • Blitzy the Clown

      Jones played anywhere from 5T (On the OT’s outside shoulder) to 3T (outside shoulder of the OG) to 2i (inside shoulder of the OG) on Denver’s DL, which is schematically similar to Seattle’s new look.

      OLB guys like Nwosu and Taylor won’t ever be lined up closer to the ball than 5T, and even then they have different responsibilities depending on their pre snap reads.

      Based on who they’ve signed already and who they’ve kicked the tires on, it looks like they’re building a smaller, faster, more aggressive front 3 than you usually see in a 3-4 front.

      Also, Reed isn’t small. He’s over 300lbs. I think they see him as stout enough inside.

      I’m pretty sure one of their early picks will be on DL, not including the possibility of Anderson at 5.

  74. IDhawk

    I think it would be really really bad if the Hawks miss out on one of the 4 QB’s this year. Imagine if two or three of them end up playing at a high level and the Seahawks just sit there at 5 and go Defense. Will Anderson would have to be an all world talent to make that worth it and not look terrible. Especially given that Carroll and Schneider have built a reputation for getting too cute and letting great players (see TJ Watt) pass them by.

    The way I see it is if you don’t have an obvious solution at QB for the next 5 years, and you have the draft capital to get a good one, then you pull the trigger and do what you have to do. They can figure out the d-line with later picks and later drafts.

    • IDhawk

      On top of that I feel like we are back to being in the corner of drafting for need due to the lack of d-lineman on the roster. I’m definitely starting to get nervous that the hawks might mess this up by thinking short term instead of embracing the reset.

  75. ErickV

    Man I really hope Richardson falls to us at #5, the level of excitement I’d get from getting our QBOTF and seeing Seahawks twitter destroy itself would be amazing. 😂😂

    • Ashish

      I just fail to understand, PC and JS openly spending so much time on top 4 QB and everyone is in denial Hawks will draft QB at #5. My gut feeling is Hawks is going to draft QB if one of top 4 is available. Can’t wait to read those article criticizing the pick.

      • ErickV

        I can’t wait for that day either. I know the guys at Hawkblogger definitely won’t like them picking a quarterback, except maybe Jeff.

  76. Jhat927

    Not buying the report that the Falcons are betting on Ridder? It seems like a steep price to pay for a bad team with many holes, that just took a QB early.

    • Rob Staton

      Nobody has ‘reported’ that. They have announced him as ‘the plan to start’ in 2023.

      There’s absolutely zero commitment to him.

    • geoff u

      3rd round isn’t exactly early and it’d be ridiculous to tie yourself to a bad quarterback simply because you drafted him. See: Josh Rosen.

      • Peter

        No for nothing but there’s no evidence that he’s bad or good yet.

        He’s had few starts and was bang average.

        I actually doubt atl trades up this year. They been pieces all over and a top three qb means they’ll be picking top ten next year. So for them it’s pick your poison.

        Draft AR and still suck. Or roll with Ridder and get as much talent elsewhere.

  77. malibudawgfan

    What about Hendon Hooker at 20 for the Hawks, Rob?

    • Rob Staton

      It’s not beyond the realms of possibility but I wouldn’t be a fan of that

  78. Rob Staton

    Live stream coming at 4:30pm PT

    Robbie and I will be discussing a bunch of topics

    • cha

      I’ll be listening from my car so I’ll dump a question here.

      Robbie, we need a boots on the ground perspective on what way Indy is leaning. What’s the talk there in the local media?

    • Palatypus


    • Rob Staton

      Adam will also be joining us

  79. Erik

    Little concerned about not getting a WR. Did you consider one in round 2 or 3 in this mock?

    • Rob Staton


  80. StevenD

    Thanks Rob!

    Question: so if we don’t end up with a QB, how is next years class looking?

    • Rob Staton

      Too early to say but all the mid-tier guys who didn’t turn pro this year will be in next years class

  81. Brodie

    ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes Lamar Jackson isn’t demanding a fully-guaranteed contract, “just that the guaranteed portion of it be larger than [Deshaun] Watson’s.”

    Fowler cited sources at this week’s NFL owners meetings who believe Jackson, who has requested a trade from Baltimore, isn’t holding out for a fully-guaranteed deal as long as he gets more than the $230 million in guarantees that Watson inexplicably got from the Browns in 2022.

    Holy Hell, how is this better? Needs to be bigger and with more guarantees than the worst contract in the league… oh, and you have to pay two 1st rounders for the honor.

    “I don’t need all $250 Million guaranteed, just $235 Million”

    • Trevor

      It’s insane how the media is making seem crazy that no one has signed him. He doesn’t want a fully guarenteed deal just $235 mil + guarenteed as part of the deal.

      The Ravens know more about him than anyone and don’t want to pay him but they expect some other team to give up multiple 1st round picks for the right to pay him a 1/4 of a billion.

      • God of Thunder

        He’s a bit overrated in my book. He will always need an offence tailored for him — we might agree that this is true of every QB! — and I think he’s going to be injury prone as he ages and can’t evade tacklers as easily.

        His exorbitant demands are also too rich for my liking, given his limitations. FWIW Deshaun Watson getting that contract was a disgrace and I hope the Browns crash and burn, as they so often have over the last decades.

  82. Ian

    Any sign of a selfie with Richardson?

  83. DarrinM

    Lot of negative press the past 2 days on Will Levis. From bad interviews to a sense of arrogance and entitlement. Then throw in the pics of himself in the mirror and it starting to snowball. Bucky Brooks recently left him out if the 1st round. Is he still an option at 5 or would anyone trade up for him at 5?

    • Rob Staton

      Lot of negative press the past 2 days on Will Levis. From bad interviews to a sense of arrogance and entitlement.

      Chad Forbes posted this

      A known bullshit artist who once ‘reported’ Odell Beckham was about to announce he was gay, then deleted the tweet

      • Peter

        Other than possible concerns about throwing mechanics when did athletes getting into great shape suddenly become a negative?

        What the hell.

        If Carter took his shirt off at his pro day and looked like that and wasn’t winded he’d be a top three lock.

        Chris carson, kw3, metcalf….

        We’re starting to go around the bend here with levis.

  84. ErickV

    Well, we got the Richardson selfie and that concludes Seahawks QBOTF selfie tour 2K23 😂

  85. MarkinSeattle

    Ade Ade is the one guy I want the most in this draft (at the right spot, I wouldn’t take him at 5). I just have this feeling that he could turn out like Aaron Donald. He has the measurables to be dominant in the NFL and he has had great success in college football. Much like Donald, he was the only real talent on that defense and tilted the field. Coming from Northwestern, you know he is a smart guy and has his crap together. NW has standards for athletes and expects them to study. I would expect he will be a hard working professional who is well grounded.

    If we can get a QB and 5 and Ade at 20, I think that will be a cornerstone for a very quick turnaround of this franchise. Will Anderson and Ade would be the cornerstones of a dominant defense if we have to go that direction. I like Rob’s mock in this scenario where the QB’s are all gone by 5.

  86. Trevor

    Not sure how it happens but it just feels like Richardson is going to be a Seahawk.

    • LetArichCook


    • ShowMeYourHawk

      The possibility has me irrationally hopeful but there’s too many variables and someone is almost certainly going to move up and snatch him from us.

    • God of Thunder

      Disagree. He’ll be gone.

      It’ll be Levis if a QB, unless Young drops after it’s revealed he has lost 10 lbs because he’s no longer on his 17 bananas + 9 litres of H2O in order to hit 200 lbs diet for his weigh in.😝

  87. Brett

    Watching the stream and getting hyped on the idea of Seattle trading up to #3 so I did a mock on PFN, trading up from #5 to #3 for the #37 pick. Then traded down from #20 to #30 to pick up the #62 pick. Results…

    #3 Anthony Richardson
    #30 Mazi Smith
    #52 John Michael Schmitz (would be surprised if he’s there, would go Wypler if he’s not)
    #62 Keeanu Benton (also not sure if he’ll be here, but he was for this scenario)
    #83 Jonathan Mingo
    #123 Roschon Johnson
    #151 Dorian Williams
    #154 Nick Broeker
    #198 Evan Hull
    #237 Xavier Henderson

    • Trevor

      That’s a solid draft.

  88. Dave

    Thanks for this as always Rob great analysis.

    I have similar (very dependent on a particular trade) but I agree that 20-30 area isn’t necessary for what Seahawks want/need as they’ll be largely chasing DL players, many of who should be available at 30-50.

    I have then trading back to 31 with Eagles for a late 2nd (63).

    That leaves them with 5, 31, 38, 53, 63.

    With those 5 clearly it spends whether they get QB or Andersen at #5, I would have them taking:

    QB, 3 x DL, C/G

    3 x DL, C/G, BPA with BPA being taken wherever they think best depending on who is off the board and whether they can secure the other 2 DL and the C/G by pick 63.

    Given that logic I would “code” as follows

    If QB @ 5 then Mazi Smith @ 31 (get a best NT). I think rushers will be available at 38 & 53.

    Then 38 & 53 have a lot to pick from: White, Ade, Ojulari, Anudike, Hall, McDonald, Tui, so take 2 of those.

    Then at 63 take one of: Mauch, Schmitz, Wypler, Avila, Tippman, Bergeron


    If Andersen @ 5 then pretty much same as above (Mazi @ 31) except 1 DL @ 38 from the above list.

    Depending on how the board falls and how they rate the C/Gs , then they could either go from one of the OL players above @ 53 or BPA, with OL at 63 as above.

    Effectively main difference between taking a QB or not, is you get Andersen and a BPA at 53 or 63, and are more likely to get your OL of choice if you want.

    That’s how I see it, dependent on having a trade partner at 28-31 who will give up that late 2nd round as comp, and then it’ll be fantastic IMO.

    Will still leave 84, ~123, 153, 156 etc

  89. God of Thunder

    Watched some Richardson highlights from today. Stop doing backflips!

    Just started thinking about the statistical improbability of four great QBs coming out of this class.

    So many top picks have been busts (or near busts). Just in recent memory, Trubisky, Darnold, Wilson, Mayfield, Wentz, Rosen, Mariota. Who’d I miss?

    Jury is out on Lance, Jones (Daniel) and Jones (Mac). Goff could improve, regress or stay the same, hard yo say. Tua’s success gives me hope for Bryce Young.

    Seems it is 50-50 whether a first rounder will pan out. But you don’t win if you buy a ticket…

    • God of Thunder

      *you don’t win if you don’t buy a ticket*

    • geoff u

      When people talk about first round busts I always like to say, “And what are the odds of getting a franchise quarterback after the first round?” I mean, where exactly do you want to find one? Do you want the pick of the litter, or to be handed the last pup? Every round of drafting your odds of finding a good drops, no matter the position.

      • God of Thunder

        Oh I don’t disagree with either of you. It’s exceedingly rare to get a Brady at 199 or a RW in the third, or a Dak Prescott. First round—preferably early in the first round—it is. Therefore I am very much hoping we nab a QB this draft.

        But I’ll bet one of these 4 is an out and out bust and at least one of these 4 will be so good people will say “how did we not see this superstar coming?!”

        I’ll conclude by saying that I’ve got a lot of faith in JS given his interest in Allen and Mahomes, and his pushing for RW back in the day.

        • PJ in Seattle

          Maybe I’ve been drinking too much Kool-Aid, but I feel like this year is more like a 3-out-of-4 hit. One or two legit franchise QBs who are in the elite conversation for the next ten years, 2 or 3 better than average starters who flash and show Dak or Geno level production but are not top tier, and one total flameout.

          It could be like the 1983 class really when Elway, Kelly, and Marino all went round one. Along with Eason, O’Brien, and Blackledg. Some hit, some missed, but it was a loaded QB class and decades later you look back and see how filthy it really was.

          Who’s the flameout this year? who sucks? If it’s Levis becuase he puts mayonaisse in his coffee and posts instragrams of his physique, well I guess I’ll be eating some crow. A lot of it. I think that guy can ball and if he can be coached to put some better touch on his passes, he seems to have everything you need to be elite in this league.

          I prefer Richardson, personally but will be happy if it’s Levis when everyone else takes their QB of choice. Because if nothing else, I believe Pete and John and everyone in the building will make sure that all this neg press and talk about him being an arrogant, innacurate prick who should be falling out of the first round isn’t lost on him.

          Levis is a guy I could see going fully beastmode with that ‘you were the guy the 4 teams above us didn’t beleive in’ chip on his shoulder.

          • Dave

            Each of the 4 have major reasons why they could bust.

            Richardson is obvious, he’s a bust or HOF type prospect.

            Young is his physique which is why he’s not consensus 1 in the first place.

            Stroud is simply not the full package but does some things super well.

            Levis is clearly erratic and it’s being assumed it was a bad O line.

            However all 4 could also be amazing which is why they’re all likely to be taken top 5.

            Balance of probabilities though say that it’s likely (to your point) that at least one of these “risks” will play out.

    • Rob Staton

      And you can’t avoid drafting a player because of totally unrelated players, picks and historical success

      • DC1234

        A lot of the times first round qb bust is because the teams that draft them are dumpster fires. They have a terrible history with qbs. Cannot develop the qb or do not support them with talent.

        Jets, Bears, Browns, Jaguars, Bucs, prob more that im not thinking about.

        If you truly believe in Pete/John in developing a young qb and drafting the right talent around him, you shouldnt care about the bust rate.

        • Geoff u

          They turned Geno Smith into a 70%, 30 td, passer. I have ton of confidence in this coaching staff when it comes to quarterbacks.

          • Geoff

            Olsen made Josh Freeman and Goof into functional QBs. I have faith in coaching these guys up

        • Rob Staton

          A lot of the times first round qb bust is because the teams that draft them are dumpster fires.


          Or desperate teams reach for players like Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel

          • MattyB

            Destination is key for these potential top grade players. Were would Mahomes career be if selected by the Jets or Jags.

  90. Madmark

    Dear Rob,
    Your new mock has brought some old memories from a couple of my drafts that trashed on. My very draft on the 1st of January before the senior bowl or combine I had John Michael Schmitz at 52 and you actually said he was too short. Because of that comment I really dug into the center and switch to the Georgia center that went back to school. Today your actually trading up 3 spots from the 37th pick. The draft after the combine I went with what stood at the most by taking a TE and I got trashed for that. I’m not sure but I don’t remember you drafting a TE in one of your drafts until today. I could be wrong. People did however wake up to this TE class after that draft to accept taking the 7th one at end of the 2nd. My mock yesterday was trash with a No and a crying face emoji. That I had Drew Sanders dropping to 52. I did that because after watching Arkansas Pro Day his 40-4.59 and 20 yard shuttle was 4.39. It’s more possible now for him to drop to 52 on top the fact he’s only started 1 year at LB.
    I see where you were going in this draft but I really don’t like it. I’m of the opinion Seattle not going to trade up from 37 if JMS is gone I think they take Wyler who doesn’t have the experience but is more athletic. The TE pick if they take a TE early their not going to get a TE. I do like Byron Young with the 83 pick. I think he starts day 1 at right DE spot. Well it was a short draft and a short rebuttal.

  91. Scot04

    Thoughts Trade for #3 from Pauline’s comments.

    Tony Pauline says “the cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks.”
    Too me not much is less than fair value, so possibly this?
    #5 & #52 = 2080 points
    #3 = 2200 points
    Arizona gets ok value and still is able to draft Will Anderson.
    No one else can offer that; in what would seem like a rare win/win trade.
    I just have trouble seeing Arizona taking less than fair value.

    Still if they truly believe Richardson is their guy, I could see this trade based on Pauline’s comments as well.
    #5 & #37 = 2230 points
    #3 = 2200 points
    Fair value+ in points + Anderson from Seattle seems more realistic & I could see this also not viewed as much.
    In this scenario we would have traded Wilson for Cross, Mafe, & Richardson.
    I will be hoping the deal is the former of #5 & #52; too me that would be an incredibly impressive job by Schneider. 🤞

    • Bmseattle

      The advantage the Seahawks have, is if Arizona doesnt want to fall past #5.
      (Conceivably to pick Anderson)

  92. PJ in Seattle

    We’re not mocking that deep, but is JL SKinner maybe a redshirt we can snag with our 6th or 7th round pick? I wouldn’t be agin it! If we’re playing chess and not checkers, he could a talent we would want to be holding in our hand when hard Adams and Diggs convos need to be had.

    If not, Skinner would have to be a UDFA priority for sure, I’d think. I worry about his headhunting but it’s not like the NFL is in front CFB in that regard when it comes to targeting. That pec tear could be major gift to us if 90% of the league just threw his name in the trash.

    • Rob Staton

      I would expect him to go R3/4 at the latest

  93. Mick

    OK to trade at 3 for a QB, but not sure it’s gonna be Richardson, he might be gone already. It could also be that the Colts make an offer for 3 and Arizona has all reasons to rather want to do the trade with them. We’ll see, it’s gonna be a fun draft and we’ll get quite a number of players with potential anyways.

  94. Brodie

    Just spitballing here, but what if the Hawks don’t LOVE Levis. If Stroud and Young are assumed 1-2, then we need Levis to go 3 or 4 or to trade up. By pushing for a trade with Arizona, we get one of these results:

    -Make the trade and pick between AR and Anderson
    -Pressure someone else into trading up for a QB, which makes QB go 1-4 and get Anderson
    -Nothing happens and we’re no better or worse than we are today

    All guesswork at this point, but when Rob, Robbie and Adam were talking about it, that is the thought that came to my mind. If they aren’t sold on Levis, anyone trading to #3 helps our odds that he goes #4.

    The other scenario is we’d like to choose between the non-Stroud/Young top 5 rather than take what’s left at the end.

    • Rob Staton

      I think some of the Levis negativity online is overblown

  95. Mobilebro

    First as always thanks Rob. Your “hobby” is must read and I truly value your pragmatism and clear outlining of perspective. Ignore the BS and trolls. Keep doing what you do so very very well.

    I know it’s WAY outside the box but was thinking about a few of the silly trade proposals out there to land us the 3rd pick. I agree it would be toxic for the Cards GM to do. However what if we traded for the #2 with Houston and then they could trade back up to #3 to get their QB. We get our top choice and can assure Houston that it won’t be Young (again spitballing here). The cards still get Anderson. We get Levis or Richardson. I know it’s some Maddenish/NBA thinking but… Again keep it coming and thank you for what you do so well.

  96. Zeke

    As good as Anderson can be, am I crazy for hoping they can trade down to land an extra 2nd or so if the 4 QBs are taken before #5? I’m pretty content with Nwosu, Taylor and hoping Mafe can turn into something, and they could take McDonald later if he falls to them.

    Anderson 5th overall just doesn’t seem to excite me so much, but I wouldn’t complain.

  97. Steve Nelsen

    When I heard the reports today about Seattle possibly trading up with Arizona I was immediately reminded of the many times that idea has been raised here and the arguments for and against.

    This is a great place for discussion.

    One argument against the possibility of Arizona trading with Seattle is that they are division rivals and it would be potential career suicide for the new Arizona GM if Seattle’s pick turns into a star QB of the future. There is certainly that risk.

    But, one thing I have come to appreciate about NFL GMs after watching John Schneider work for years is that they are wired for risk tolerance differently than normal people. They risk their jobs every draft. Is there some extra risk here? Sure. But, that doesn’t make it a nonstarter. It is just one more piece of the risk/reward analysis. One thing Seattle can offer that no other team can is the possibility that Arizona gets the top defensive player at 5. And we don’t know what the Arizona GM’s evaluation of Anthony Richardson is. Maybe he feels AR is not likely to succeed so the risk of the trade blowing up in his face is worth the chance to steal a 2nd round pick from a division rival and still get the defender they were going to draft at 4.

    • JC3

      It would take more than a two to trade up for the third pick, and AR might not be there @ 3rd pick. Also, it is not certain Indy will take Levis either.

  98. Old but Slow

    Any truth to the statement I heard that Levis got his bachelors degree and masters with a 4.0 all the way through? Sounds far fetched, but remarkable if true.

  99. Rushless pass

    What’s the price difference between the 5th pick and the third pick? Would the cost difference be covered by packaging the #37 pick with it?

    • Rob Staton

      #3 = 2200

      #5 = 1700

      #37 = 530

      So yes

      • Rushless pass

        Damn I’m ready for draft day!!

  100. GrittyHawk

    I obviously want what is best for the team, but a small part of me wants us to trade up and take Richardson just so I can watch the collective meltdown of Seahawks Twitter/Reddit and the rest of the deranged “smoke screen” conspiracy theorists and Carter fanbois.

    • Rob Staton

      That would be delicious 😂

  101. Tony Sahli

    I like it but, we desperately need a nose!

    • Rob Staton

      Jaquelin Roy was selected in round three to play nose tackle

  102. popeye

    I liked your draft except I feel one area of need was not addressed(linebacker)

    • Rob Staton

      It’s a crap linebacker draft

      • popeye

        What do you see out there in the FA or trade market for a line backer?

        • Rob Staton

          They just signed Bobby Wagner and Devin Bush

          • James Sailor

            I don’t see Bush as the answer.Even with the 3-3-5 They won’t have any depth.

            • Rob Staton

              Brooks will be back eventually

              Last year they ran with Brooks and Barton only

              Don’t know why people expect them to suddenly have four deep on the depth chart

  103. dahveed

    Seahawks wet dream
    IF this mock will become even Close to what happens in the draft I will be coming up with defensive front line NICKNAMES befor training camp

  104. Happy Hawk

    Awesome content yet again Rob! Big Thanks. If the draft fell like this – then OK but it means years of mid-tier QB play and that would be a bummer. I really hope Lamar Jackson signs with Atlanta or Tenn.

  105. HOUSE

    So I live down in GA (about an hour from Atlanta) and the Falcons are doubling down on wanting Desmond Ridder as their starter. The chatter is the continued building of the defense and that the veteran presence of Calais Campbell could help the development of Jalen Carter. Word is the Falcons are continuing to dig into him and that Carter/CB could be the pick at 7

    • Rob Staton

      That may well be the word but from what I’ve read, their talk about Ridder has been decidedly lukewarm

      And they have Arthur Smith as an offensive minded Head Coach, with Arthur Blank an aggressive owner

      So I wouldn’t rule out a trade up for AR

      • HOUSE

        Very true. You said something the other day that really stuck out to me. You were talking about how people talk in “certainties” and right now the only thing for sure is nothing’s for sure. I don’t personally know what to think of Ridder and if they stayed with him and drafted say Carter or Christian Rodriguez, that could help their defense. 🤷🏻‍♂️

        I was reading Bucky Brooks’ comment on Carter playing in SEA cause he would be so far away from the SE where he’s from. It was laughable because he acts as if a guy that gets himself in trouble won’t do it somewhere else and when he’s got $20M.

        I’m just counting down days and hard charging to the draft!

        Cheers Rob!

  106. LouCityHawk

    I don’t really like sharing mocks, because as a fan it is like telling your coworkers about your dreams.

    I did want to share this one I did a while ago when people first started talking about trading up, I wanted to prove that trading up wouldn’t destroy your ability to have a good draft. I didn’t save all the trades or the prospects I passed up.

    I double check trades using over the cap, and try to not draft players who obviously should have been drafted earlier.

    3. CJ Stroud
    30. Mayer
    54. Zay
    62. Derick Hall
    83. Pickens
    123. Bradford
    125. Chase Brown
    151. RezJohn
    154. Hellams
    198. Scruggs
    237. Coburn

    Looking back I still feel pretty strongly that this makes a good case for trading up not hampering your overall draft. It is a lot harder to fill out your roster with impact players this way.

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