We’re a fortnight away from the NFL draft. I wanted to do another mock reflecting the talk about Houston not taking a quarterback with the second pick. There are also reports that GM Nick Caserio could leave the team after the draft, adding another layer of intrigue to the situation.
I’ll have some Seahawks-related thoughts at the end of the mock, plus a seven-round projection.
The trades explained
There are three first round trades. Washington cough up their 2024 and 2025 first round picks to jump from #16 to #3 to select C.J. Stroud. Tennessee trades up from #41 to #31 with the Chiefs to select local hero Hendon Hooker. The Titans give the Chiefs their third round pick and get back Kansas City’s fourth rounder in return. And the Bills go from #28 to #20 in a trade with the Seahawks to get Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks get Buffalo’s third round pick.
First round
#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
All of the momentum currently is behind Young being the top pick.
#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I’m going to take notice of the noise about Houston not going quarterback here but I remain confident Anderson will be the first defender taken.
#3 Washington (v/ARI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
I don’t think the Commanders are seriously investing their future in Sam Howell. Having appointed Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator, they might be waiting for their moment to strike in a trade. This would be an expensive jump including their next two first round picks but Stroud showed some Mahomes-level play against Georgia.
#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
I think the Colts settled on this pick a while ago and it’s why they didn’t make a serious move to trade up. Chris Mortensen says Levis is a top-five lock.
#5 Seattle — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think they’d love Will Anderson to last to this spot but if he doesn’t — Richardson has the physical talent Carroll and Schneider seek to invest in.
#6 Detroit — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Dan Campbell once said he wanted ‘kneecap-eaters’. Witherspoon is the biggest hitter in the draft.
#7 Las Vegas — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
There’s a bit of a ‘Patriots’ vibe to Gonzalez, so let’s put him with ‘Patriots west’.
#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Terry Fontenot is a big BPA guy and on a lot of boards, Robinson is going to be among the top 2-3 players in the entire class.
#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
A nagging injury, no testing and inconsistent tape makes this a better range for Wilson than the top-five.
#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I think Philly is the most likely spot for Carter.
#11 Tennessee — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
He’s the best offensive lineman in the draft.
#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
I think he’s a tweener and it’s hard to place where he starts in the NFL. Yet he might remind DeMeco Ryans of himself.
#13 NY Jets — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
Joe Douglas loves explosive linemen.
#14 New England — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
They have an unsettled situation on the offensive line and Johnson Jr has the length a lot of teams will like.
#15 Green Bay — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
A perfect match.
#16 Arizona (v/WAS) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
After moving down 13 spots, collecting a haul in the process, the Cardinals select a much needed pass rusher.
#17 Pittsburgh — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
The family ties are strong and Mike Tomlin’s the type of coach to pay attention to stuff like that.
#18 Detroit — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
He’ll only last this long because of his length and he’s too explosive to go much lower than this.
#19 Tampa Bay — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I think he’s better than some of the bigger name tackles.
#20 Buffalo (v/SEA) — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
The Bills jump the Chargers, Ravens, Vikings and Giants to make the kind of move their fans are calling for.
#21 Miami — forfeited
Tut tut.
#22 LA Chargers — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
Aaron Donald helped Brandon Staley create the #1 defense in LA. Why not try and do it again with Kancey?
#23 Baltimore — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
He could go a lot earlier than people think after a superb set of combine tests.
#24 Minnesota — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
Lightning quick and his best football is yet to come.
#25 Jacksonville — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
Amazing testing, great length, superb attitude, excellent Senior Bowl. ‘Ade Ade’ appears destined to go in this range.
#26 New York Giants — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
They are one of a handful of teams who might be eyeing JMS in this range — including the Seahawks.
#27 Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jerry Jones wants an explosive offense and Gibbs can help get them there.
#28 Seattle (v/BUF) — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
After trading down eight spots, the Seahawks add a pass rusher who could be their answer to Brian Burns. He trained with Seahawks pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan earlier this year before he accepted the job in Seattle.
#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
A lot of mocks have him going earlier but we should consider his injury status, lack of testing and the fact he started 2022 as Utah’s TE2.
#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
A brilliant combine puts the big Georgia blocker into the back-end of round one.
#31 Philadelphia — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
They lost both starting safeties in free agency so this is a good fit for team and player.
#32 Tennessee (v/KC) — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
The Titans trade back into round one in order to secure a local favourite and ensure they get the fifth year option on his contract.
Second round
#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to reunite Kenny Pickett with his former #1 college target.
#34 Houston — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
The testing numbers are great but there’s no getting away from the fact he didn’t start at Iowa.
#35 Arizona — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
They get a big defensive lineman in round one, then a big cornerback in round two.
#36 Indianapolis — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
Colts fans want more explosive plays and Downs is my WR1 in this class.
#37 LA Rams — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
There’s a lot of buzz around Forbes going in this range.
#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
I’m going to assume they cut Al Woods in part because they felt very confident about replacing him.
#39 Las Vegas — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
The lack of playing time and below-expectation testing results moves Musgrave into the second round but he’s still a top-40 talent.
#40 Carolina — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Running the 4.5’s at pro-day shifts Johnston into the second round.
#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
He can help anchor the line but he’s also very capable of being an impact rusher.
#42 Kansas City (v/TEN) — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Another dynamic weapon for Patrick Mahomes.
#43 NY Jets (v/CLE) — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
Robert Salah succeeded in San Francisco because they pumped resource into the D-line.
#44 NY Jets — Cody Mauch (G/C, North Dakota State)
Another explosive lineman for the Jets, Mauch could fill the void at center.
#45 Atlanta — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
They need another edge rusher and Hall has the 10-yard split, agility testing and length to be really dynamic.
#46 Green Bay — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
He could play right tackle or inside immediately and be the eventual starter on the blind-side.
#47 New England — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
With the way they use their linebackers, this would be a good fit for Sanders.
#48 Washington — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
He’s such a fluid mover in the open-field it won’t be a surprise if he goes earlier than this.
#49 Detroit (v/MIN) — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
He plays like a Dan Campbell guy and has the testing results to be really, really good.
#50 Pittsburgh — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
Reportedly teams have soured on Jones due to his unwillingness to test at the combine or pro-day, plus the way he called it a week after one day at the Senior Bowl.
#51 Tampa Bay — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
It feels like a long time since Daniel Jeremiah labelled White the best defender in the draft.
#52 Miami — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
He is such an exciting player to watch and he’s had a great draft process.
#53 Seattle — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Wypler is an excellent scheme fit in Seattle.
#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s flying under the radar despite a terrific Senior Bowl and a good combine.
#55 LA Chargers — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I think Mingo’s a top-50 player in this class.
#57 Jacksonville — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Great personality, outstanding physical tools, huge potential.
#58 NY Giants — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee
He has genuine downfield ability but his combine testing was underwhelming.
#59 Dallas — Joe Tippmann (C/G, Wisconsin)
He can play anywhere along the interior.
#60 Buffalo — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
I wouldn’t take him this early but someone might.
#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
The Bengals love speed at cornerback.
#62 Chicago (v/CAR, SF) — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s a well-rounded, explosive running back.
#63 Philadelphia — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
He’s more athlete than football player currently.
#64 Kansas City — Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
He’s a Chiefs-type of draft pick — super athletic and versatile.
Seven-round projection for Seattle
#5 — Anthony Richardson (QB)
#27 — Will McDonald (EDGE)
#37 — Mazi Smith (DT)
#52 — Luke Wypler (C)
#83 — Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh)
#91 — Henry To’oTo’o (LB, Alabama)
#123 — Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
#151 — Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
#154 — Charlie Jones (WR, Purdue)
#198 — Jordan Howden (S, Minnesota)
#237 — Payne Durham (TE, Purdue)
Further thoughts on the Seahawks
My opinion isn’t likely to change over the next two weeks — I think the Seahawks will be very interested in Will Anderson and he might be their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board I don’t think they’ll pivot to Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson (although I wouldn’t rule out Wilson). I think the Seahawks are highly intrigued by Anthony Richardson and he’s the type of athlete they love to try and develop. If Anderson is gone and Richardson’s available, I think there’s a good chance they’ll take him.
I’m comfortable taking a high-upside quarterback and I think they will be too. Taking a shot to try and get the next Josh Allen is a perfectly understandable plan. We know John Schneider was a big admirer of Allen’s, so much so he was willing to trade peak Russell Wilson to draft Allen. If it doesn’t work out, so what? The upside potential of someone like Richardson succeeding is enormous. And really, he’s no more or less risky than drafting someone like Carter, who has a tremendous amount of baggage.
One other thing — you don’t have to copy the 49ers to beat them. Richardson’s athleticism and physical talent could be the antidote for San Francisco’s pass rush. He’s a player I don’t think 49ers fans want the Seahawks to draft. There’s something to be said for that.
There’s also something to consider here. The ‘out’ in Geno Smith’s contract doesn’t purely exist for the potential to draft a replacement quarterback. It’s to protect the team. Smith is due $32.1m in 2024. There’s another $15m in escalators to be earned. If he has an average season, you might not want to pay him $32.1m If he has a slightly better year than last year and hits his escalators, you might not want to pay him +$40m. So there’s a big call to be made here and having the option to transition to a far cheaper, high upside potential star in 2024 just gives the Seahawks another option to help make a decision on Geno’s deal.
In this mock they still come back and add two key defensive linemen with their next two picks, so it’s not as if the defense is being ignored. They also get a center who is an ideal scheme fit before the end of round two.
Abanikanda ticks every box they look for in a running back in terms of size and explosive traits. I can’t ignore how closely Carroll observed To’oTo’o at Alabama’s pro-day. McFadden is perfect to convert to guard, providing immediate depth and starter potential from 2024. Trice has the size, length and instincts they’ve been attracted to in the past and Jones ran in the 4.4’s (speed is key for Seattle at receiver) and he can handle kick return duties.
I like Howden on tape and he can fill the void left by Ryan Neal, while Durham gives the Seahawks a Y-tight end they can add for depth.
They’d have to go out and sign another defensive lineman after the draft (Poona Ford? Shelby Harris?) but that is achievable. The class mixes in players for the here and now and prospects for the future.
Let me know what you think in the comments section.
Today I was invited onto the 5th year option podcast to talk about the Seahawks and the draft. My bit starts 30 minutes in. You can check it out below:
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This is the A+ draft you’ve been trying for.
I couldn’t agree more!!! This is the A+ draft we’ve all wanted. I’d be screaming and pumping my fist with every one of these picks.
Great draft. Cory Trice at 151 would be clutch.
Great mock Rob. Love your logic and picks.
Question for you: Do you think Seattle may see LB as being very “top heavy” this draft? And if so, do you think that means they may be more inclined to go with Simpson or Sanders early on because the drop off is so significant?
I keep looking at LB as a position that is a sneaky need for Seattle. The two one-year signings of Wagner and Bush have made it appear like the hole is “covered” but I dunno. I think this team needs more Fred Warner esque types that fly around and hit people hard.
I just remember after the Brooks selection you looking and going “agh, I didn’t really think this was a position they wanted to address that early.” Could this year be a repeat?
Thanks heaps for your analysis. Best in the frickin biz.
I think it’s a crap linebacker draft personally. Signing Wagner & Bush means they can avoid it altogether if they wish. I think they’re more likely to let the draft come to them and they’ll take a player because they like them, more than any need to press
Thx heaps for the reply!
I’ve seen rumblings that next year’s lb class is significantly deeper so teams may not prioritize the position this draft.
Like all the drafts enjoyed this very much.
Slightly surprised that you mocked mazi to us…per John’s comments that you can just get a guy for that role.
I agree, I think the Seahawks are looking at NT down in round 4-5, and probably get another DE in Round 2.
Have to admit…I’m not entirely sold on Mazi. He didn’t test as freaky as I expected. And his tape is up and down. I’m fine with a late pick option.
Same. I know the injury buy without that info its hard to see the pick.
Yes i feel Ade Ade type will consider as they were looking to sign Josh Allen (other guy with Jones) but i like the draft.
I think it’s worth paying attention to John’s comments but it’s dangerous to draw overly firm conclusions from them. There are no NTs on the roster and no obvious veterans left who are likely to sign on a minimum deal. It’s one thing to think we can slightly devalue a position, but entirely another to say we’ll just throw a day 3 guy out there and feel okay about it. Maxi’s testing is weird, but his reputation as a freaky athlete didn’t come out of nowhere. He looks extremely stout on tape and definitely has the potential to develop some pass rush push. I think they’ll like him.
Al woods. Bryan mone. Poona ford occasionally.
I’m just going based on the guys they’ve rolled out at the position.
Right, but Mone is expected to miss the majority of the year, Poona is more of an occasional, can fill-in, at NT rather than his more natural fit at 3tech/5tech. I’m all for bringing back Woods if they can get him back on a minimum salary, but he’s already had two visits with other teams. Maybe there is a veteran solution out there – they have certainly had success picking DTs off the scrap heap. But I think Mazi gives you a pretty talented player there.
I like mazi just fine.
I just feel like with center they’ve never prioritized the position. I’m all about change with philosophy so I hope there is one. I just need to see it to believe it.
Rob,
Could you do a direct comparison between Will Anderson and Will McDonald?
I haven’t been sold on Anderson for awhile. I think too much is attached to the Alabama brand. Based on everything you said about McDonald, he sounds better.
To me people are overthinking Anderson in this board, the same way the Hawks fan that don’t want a QB look for flaws in Richardson or Levis. I also want a QB at 5, but Anderson is hands down the best defensive prospect in this draft and we should all pop champagne bottles if he falls to us at 5.
Not Rob, but I can tell you that Anderson is a great run defender.
I have nightmares about McDonald and Taylor being on both edges… but then Shanahan has a seizure trying to figure out which one trying to run at, and wanting to run at both simultaneously
I mean, McDonald is bad against the run, like cover your eyes bad.
McDonald would be worth taking a shot on, but he has the weird profile of being a good athlete who is older but very raw (like Mafe). He looks like a pure pass rush specialist right now.
Thanks
Great work and analysis, I especially like how no team is just turned into a dumping ground for players that have range fit, but no logical connection.
That being said, I might have to start a club for Seahawks fans who are ‘Meh’ on Mazi Smith – all three of us – he is a roller coaster for consistency.
I think I’d rather have Pickens or one of the Youngs, unless the idea is to get a big body, but honestly the guy from Illinois, Avery, I like his tape even if he doesn’t have Smith’s updside.
Damnit Lou, I might be with you there. So there’s like 4 of us.
There was an old Far Side cartoon called the society for people who didn’t like Dances With Wolves…
I figure that we might be able to fill the small conference room at the Red Lion Hotel at SeaTac…
Also, 3 Purdue players … disgusting.
I’m ok with Charlie Jones as he only was there for one year, so the stank of Lafayette didn’t seep into him too much. Also, any player that equals Lockett off the return team is ok with me.
I must be blind because I haven’t seen Lockett on special teams for a couple of years now.
Maybe just mad?
It has slacked off in the last 3 years or so, but PC still talks about it.
Last year I recall him being out there for a dozen or so, maybe only one or two he actually tried to return though.
This is triggering. Because when DK, Lockett or K9 go down our offense looks like shit. Which is why I’d prefer to see more weapons taken than most of the fan base.
I’m with you on more offensive weapons.
Absolute locked on needs come draft or cheap free agents:
Dline. Period. Full stop. There’s zero depth.
But….I think Seattle is with good weapons closer to be an offensive power than a defensive strength.
Agree that adding at least two defensive linemen is the biggest roster need – I think WR3 and RB depth are significant needs as well. RB depth can be found cheap, but I would really like to see a WR drafted in the first two days.
If they don’t nail WR I dread how bad the offense could be. Seattle has been very lucky to have had Lockett and metcalf play as many games as they have together with minimal disruption.
I agree Patrick. While I know Rob has stated repeated, Carter isn’t being drafted by the Seahawks, I simply can’t look past them bringing him in (plus I have an internal connection that says he’s still being considered), that I believe if Carter is available at #5, he’s the pick. We’ll all cringe (I know I will) and hope that it works out, but with our D-Line be so horrendous, it’ll be too much to pass on such a generational talent like Carter. Look for them to continue rebuilding the D-Line by taking Ade Ade or Keion White with the other 1st round pick.
I’m hearing Seahawks are fine with our TE group and will only add a TE if a good emerges later in the draft. They’ll aim for OL in Rd 2 and Rob is spot on with RB/WR in Rd 3 & 4.
So you’ve been presented with a lot of arguments about why they aren’t drafting him
One visit is arranged and you can’t look beyond that???
What about all the players they bring in for a visit and don’t draft?
What about the fact his visit the next day was to Las Vegas, who the Athletic have reported have taken him off their board?
Let’s stop acting like a due diligence exercise, which is the right thing to do, is indicative of anything
I fundamentally agree with everything you’re saying, Rob. And for me personally, I’m 98% with you. But I can’t ignore the snippet of insight I got from someone inside the building, a resource that informed me a Russell trade and releasing of Wagner was happening.
Until it all goes down, it’s fun conjecture. I have been following your blog for 7-8 years and it’s the best in the biz. Thanks for all you do and thanks for being so engaging with your followers. I get just excited to follow your blog, read your game & draft reactions as I do watching the games and following the draft.
These are exciting times to be a Seahawk!!
So initially the fact he had a visit had convinced you, now you’re citing an insider source. A source that supposedly has intimate knowledge of Seattle’s intentions with the #5 pick?
It’s the fact that he came from Iowa on why he’s so good!
I’m kidding. When he was at Iowa, he probably had the worst passing game in football history. He’s a very solid player who can make plays. He’ll be a good #3 and a fantastic returner. He was smart and left for a program that would showcase him better and it worked.
Would love getting him.
Oh hey. A club for me. Just posted above that after his testing Mazi has moved down my want list. Tape wasn’t that impressive. He doesn’t move the needle for me.
Only criticism from me would be possibly Mazi Smith. If he is a true nose tackle replacement would they be better off drafting one later as they are really just space eaters. If he has true pass rush upside and wont line up directly over the center just basically taking both A gaps then I get it. Wonder if Benton might be a better fit at 37. Just some thoughts.
Love the mock, except for the To’oTo’o pick. Rather we pick another d-linemen (Moro Ojomo/Byron Young) or a better WR (Michael Wilson or BFW). Then use the 5th rounder in another RB (speedy Keaton Mitchell would be nice!)
Kick the LB can to 24 and roll with Bobby and Bush.
I’m, sadly, pretty high on Charlie Jones.
You should watch some of his film.
I’m also the guy who is fairly out on JSN. So take it with a grain of salt.
I’m curious about where Jack Campbell ends up being drafted.
Danny Kelly’s comp for Jack Campbell in his big board is Cody Barton. No, thank you
So will lead the league in own-team tackles?
Post of the week
I completely disagree with that. Campbell is a very solid player and won’t have any tackling issues. And won’t be out of position.
But will be slow to get there.
I’m not in love with any of the off-ball linebackers in this draft. The one who pops the most for me is Overshown. I also like Sanders, but for a creative defense that can move him around to maximize his play.
Campbell is the traditional big ugly guy in the middle, he is like the Shake Shack version of Cody Barton.
Campbell has become really overrated IMO
If we’re gonna go slow and bulky at LB, I’d take Sewell over Campbell. Jack has the better name though. It just rolls off the tongue like a Steel Curtain badass.
I…completely forgot Sewell was in the draft.
TBH I am 95% certain he’s so hyped up by draft fans because of his name lol. People just assume a guy named Jack Campbell is going to be a hall of fame old school linebacker like Chuck Bednarik.
…time for a cigarette, thank you.
I don’t think it’s a big deal that Van Ness didn’t start. I think that was just the coaching staff giving respect to upperclassmen out of tradition at Iowa. I believe Van Ness still had the highest snap count on the line.
I do worry a bit about McDonald being another overage B12 defender, but I’m not 100% opposed to the pick.
As a Seahawks fan in Iowa, I’d add that that coaching staff really isn’t any good, so I’d take their choices with a grain of salt. More on offense than defense to be fair but really everywhere.
The OFFENSIVE coaching staff isn’t. The defensive coaching is some of the best in the country. Phil Parker takes kids with no other offers and they end up at least getting try outs for the NFL, and usually have decent pro careers. He should have left years ago and we are lucky that he hasn’t wanted to be a head coach.
They have been one of the best units in the country for a few years. The offense has just been historically atrocious. Head coach hired his son as an OC.
And Iowa rotates their offensive line to keep them fresh. And they are very deep. That’s why Van Ness playing so little hasn’t bothered me. I do think he is being projected about a round too high though.
Fair distinction. I honestly meant the HC, not the actual defensive staff who, as you point out, are good at their jobs. Just jaundiced about anyone named Ferentz at this point.
Hahaha you DO live in Iowa. Ferentz is whittling away his legacy by letting his son keep running the offense and wasting the defense.
But what about Seth Wallace? I played with his brother and for his dad.
Oh you mean National Linebackers Coach of the year Seth Wallace? I think that, and the fact that they’ve had so many guys make it speaks for itself.
Glad to see someone else from Iowa that is a Seahawk fan as well. That’s awesome that you know them. Seth’s been a part of a fantastic string of defenses while he’s been there.
I was only there for college, but I did have a Spanish class with Cyclone walk-on turned starter turned state Senate majority leader Jack Whitver.
This would be an awesome draft. I think Richardson could beat out Geno day 1, and boom superstar excitement to watch again .
I’ve been thinking about this. I think Geno has the team trust, but I bet Pete/Shane would be awfully tempted to see what Richardson could do with a designed run game. It would change up the offense. Open things up. Force defenses to change to account for the extra threat. Good scheming would take advantage
Beat out Geno day 1? Come on now…
Love the mock other than the mazi pick, per JS it sounds like we can just draft a guy mid rounds, id like that high #37 pick to be a BPA combination of WR or TE. Per your draft we could have gotten musgrave, flowers or Johnson. Would love to get an offensive option there, and then do NT round 4 or 5.
Ok, maybe we all meet an Applebees?
I’m down man
Love it. Gotta swing for the fences at #5 and see if we can come away with a franchise QB. Let the rest of the draft be our regular draft. Well, new improved regular draft like last year.
That’s a lot of Purdue guys at the back end though, I’m assuming not intentional?
I agree, though I think they should move up and secure their QBoTF, too much at stake if they dont.
Perhaps Schoonmaker in the 2nd and Roy LSU/DT in later rounds. Can’t complain with AR there at 5 and not giving up the farm to move up. This Texans taking D has a lot of Richardson fans feeling a little better
Love this mock, but I think the Seahawks should move up and secure their QBoTF, you just cant risk missing out on a once in a generation opportunity to get a true difference maker on your team. Will Anderson aint that guy even if he turns out to be productive.
Brett Kollman just dropped his rankings for every draft eligible DT, found it informative and made me take a closer look at Kobie Turner.
https://youtu.be/8cvfA-ZXWRI
I’m still waiting for the Brett/bootlegger/Rob crossover
This interview with Kobie was top notch, intelligent young man. He appears to be a strong ifilm study guy, which is a good sign. Hope he is on the radar for the Hawks.
https://youtu.be/lBTxKFLo0fY
His PFF grades are similar to Jalen Carter (top 5). I can’t recall why he’s not rated higher, but I assume measurements or testing numbers.
Maybe further down the board because his wingspan is in the tenth percentile, shorter arms and in the 50th percentile in his athletic testing.
Very short 31 3/8″ arms. According to scouting reports, his frame is also maxed out at 6’2 293, and he’s already old for a prospect, turning 24 this month.
Great agility, though. 7.09s 3-cone at his size is definitely elite — for comparison, Fletcher Cox ran a 7.07, and Aaron Donald did 7.10. 4.49 short shuttle is also very good. 31 bench reps, so strength isn’t a concern. Interestingly, looks like he only played 3/4-tech prior to transferring to Wake, but this year they had him moving all around the line.
While I would love this draft, sadly I think we all need to brace ourselves for the more likely picks of Will Levis or Jalen Carter. I know nobody on here wants it. But it’s important to not be ignorant to the trends and copious reporting out there. John Schnieder said today that he changed his mind on one prospect off a meeting this year. That’s clearly Carter. And Levis is more than likely going to be the only qb available, if that’s the position they want to go. Not saying anyone here is wrong at all. I just think those 2 are the odds on faves at the moment.
Would love Levis, he’s my QB2 behind Stroud and would be thrilled if he was available and we picked him, Carter is a different story
How do we know it’s Carter that he changed his mind on? Could just as easily be Bryce Young
Why would Schnieder have a poor opinion of Young prior to interviewing him? There’s almost no reason to have negative opinions on the guys they brought in besides Carter. There’s no knowing certain. But the odds are he was talking about Carter. Who plays a position they desperately need. Of course Schneider and Pete would want to have their minds changed for a potential defense maker. Matt Miller said it on ESPN today that he’s hearing the Seahawks want DL over QB. They desperately want to fix the D. That’s a must in their eyes. Setting up Geno’s successor is a luxury in comparison. I’m not saying I agree with that thinking. But I think all the tea leaves heavily point to it. It’s why all you hear about on 710, 950, and nationally for the Hawks is Carter and DL.
You just mentioned about everyone that has no real insight. Tomorrow there will be 3 reports of this player or that player. It’s the dead period. People are putting out whatever they can to get clicks and views. Pete and John aren’t going to get swayed just because it’s a position of need. And I would call Geno’s successor the biggest current need.
There are just as many, if not more reports going the other way about what to do at 5, including what Pete and John have said.
What if Young (or Stroud for that matter, or anyone) was a lousy interview? Could have been a change of heart in the negative direction.
exactly
Well, I would love getting Levis, and then we can even cut Lock.
It wasn’t clearly Carter, but could’ve been. My bet is on the secret meeting the week or two prior John wouldn’t reveal.
I couldn’t disagree more about Carter being the one. His issues aren’t things that can be overcome with a conversation. These are patterns of behavior; he’s proven he doesn’t learn from huge tickets and being lucky to stay out of jail. Bigger is the evidence he doesn’t have the drive to take care of his body for this profession, even when it should be the response to a traumatic experience. He’s said the words before and then proven them to be empty.
I think it’s far more likely that he’s talking about someone changing their minds in the negative, giving indicators of poor judgment or lack of drive
The Houston noise is interesting. I haven’t seen it mentioned, but let’s not forget that Houston is widely credited with essentially breaking David Carr. They didn’t have the roster talent to shelter Carr from the wolves. Might not be their driving factor here, but I bet it’s in their collective mind. Spend another year buIlding the roster, then use their 2 firsts to go get their QB next year
It would make sense for them to be further out on their schedule, but that’s more readon to say #2 shouldn’t be a non-QB unless it’s a Garrett or Bosa type and level. It’s also what makes them the best spot for Richardson if you agree on his lack of readiness. They have a great LT, so if they can refrain from jumping the gun on judging and expecting great results, they can play him. It blows my mind that people think he needs to sit a whole year and then they expect him to hit the ground running in 24. That guy needs game experience and NFL practice time is less conducive to development than it ever has been.
We can dream! Despite previous articles on it, this feels like your A+ mock, Rob.
A+ draft 👍🏻
Slam dunk of a draft. Every need addressed – many with very high ceiling guys. From your keyboard to God’s ear, let it be so.
I’d love to get Mingo in there somehow, but can’t argue with prioritizing center with our last 2nd round pick.
Whoever takes Mingo is going to get a huge steal at WR. He gives me Tee Higgins vibes.
Just to keep talking to myself, I think Mazi Smith has a lot of upside and surely addresses a need, but I think we can get some lesser but still adequate DT beef later. I would come out of the second round with Wypler and Mingo by any means necessary.
No Mazi Smith please. We can pick up a big body later in the draft. Mazi’s production was not worthy of being drafted this high. Don’t like the trade back. Give me Josh Downs at 36 all day.
Not a big fan of this particular mock draft
My take is that Jalen Carter in our system is worth the Risk
Overthinking and passing on Anderson is not warranted (plays the run like a beast and knows how to sack
the QB…a lot of guys can’t close! he is closer and you can’t teach that.
and Simms speaks in certainty like a drunken gambler with his Dads money.(evample BYU zack wilson)
My take is I wouldn’t pass on either of these cats.
although always a fan of your work and insights Rob.
I don’t understand what ‘our system’ has to do with anything though
You spend three years not putting in the effort in practise, not even turning up sometimes, you’re conditioning is appalling as a consequence and you don’t apply yourself to your career. You keep making the same mistakes off the field and have legal trouble. There’s background stuff at play too. And this is all going to change when you make him a multi millionaire and ask him to come to the other side of the country?
Pete is too old to be a babysitter. He wants to be “fun grandpa.” And you can’t do that if Junior is always in detention.
Yes I hear you and frankly, this is the energy vacuum that is Jalen Carter (for us fans to debate)
but you said it best yourself~
” spend three years not putting in the effort in practice, not even turning up sometimes, you’re conditioning is appalling”
and yet you still at times dominated and played a vital role in the championship run.He can still get better and should or to your point unlike in Georgia he will be benched and fan chaos will ensue.
The ‘”System” is a mental approach Carrol has employed since the USC era working holistically with the player to mentor and guide him.Bk26 sais Pete is to old to Babysit..then you don’t know Pete he lives for this stuff.
BUT lastly, this is Johns’s’s draft so we will see
I’m just not turning away from a troubled young man since having been there myself and will say I landed up fighting like no one else for those who gave me a chance.
Just one man’s opinion
And when he played the closest thing to a NFL game, against Ohio State in the playoffs, what happened then?
Because it’s OK having some good reps against Mississippi State when you’re being spelled. When you’re a top-five pick and expected to play 70-80% of the snaps and dominate, for 17 games, you can’t be blowing out of your arse.
That Ohio State game told me more about Carter than any other game. When it’s low snaps and bad opponents, sure he had dominant moments. Then he embarrassed himself — his words — against the NFL talent on Ohio State’s roster. He won’t get to play rebuilding Florida and Miss State in the NFL and he won’t be allowed to play a third of every game
I get it
I hear you and that’s legit
I see him aginst LSU and other good teams too
Well in fairness, against LSU — they began with a very long offensive drive. I made a note after that game. Carter looks exhausted and I questioned his conditioning. That was in the first quarter.
Hey look Rob, he was just dealing some personal issues that day, ok? He was up the whole night before racing cars, can’t we just give the guy a break for once?
and yet 4th down inches 3rd qrt he throws his man down slices across the line and takes the legs out under the runningback as Lsu all im saying is the talent is there
Great, that was his one of two tackles for the day. Pure talent has never been the issue and I’ve never seen anyone say otherwise…
When has anyone said he doesn’t have talent?
A response to the counters we’re raising isn’t, ‘but he made a play’
My point being He made a play despite his lack of conditioning etc. his talent is that good
..but its all good I totally understand your points . And if he or Anderson is there at 5 its a coin flip decision for me
Could you provide some evidence to suggest Carroll lives to babysit? Or even evidence to suggest he puts up with prima donnas (excluding Russell Wilson)?
You don’t know Pete David.
This is pure bollocks. Are you suggesting Jalen Carter just needs a chance? Poor kid’s been held down for so long, never had anyone pulling for him. He just needs someone to believe in him and give him a shot. Why won’t someone give him a chance?
GTFO with that. He’s been one of the most coddled players in college football in the modern age.
*heavy sigh *pinches bridge of nose
Marshawn Lynch
What do you mean passing on Anderson? He went #2 in this mock. We didn’t pass on him.
I’d only just noticed he said this
Quite something to criticise a mock you haven’t read properly
I absolutely messed up and Own that ! Quite something to criticise a mock you haven’t read properly
I agree !
My comments about Anderson are more reflective on Chis Simms view of him and anyone buying it
My ideal realistic top 3 picks are Levis, McDonald, Downs
Personally I prefer Anthony Richardson over Will Anderson Jr. Although I just saw on NFL Network that Will Anderson Jr. had 206 QB pressures during his career at Alabama. Seattle probably is not going to have this opportunity to take a QB again. The Hawks almost never draft in the top ten. All the more reason to take RIchardson if he is on the board.
David Pollack (A Georgia native) was comparing Jalen Carter with Jeffrey Simmons. It seems like everyone on 710 ESPN is all in https://depositphotos.com/100869040/stock-photo-poker-player-going-all-in.html for Jalen Carter.
710 is a joke. Bunch of smooth brain garbage and dumpster fire narratives.
Yeah, it’s pretty bad. I only listen in when I’m driving around and don’t have a btter option, but it is the new home of lazy ass takes. I feel like I’m listening to people who take 100% of their opinion on football from Sportscenter highlight reels.
Quick look on YouTube : Stacy and bump. ” why jalen carter is tge best player in the draft….”
No need to do any listening there.
Carter vs. The field for me with dline.
As Rob said on the fifth year option pod : it’s as if it’s Carter or nothing….not Carter OR….the myriad of interesting players on dline.
To be fair, most of the hosts on 950 KJR are saying the same.
The only Seattle radio guys who don’t want Carter are Brock Huard and KJ Wright. Everyone else seems to be all over him.
I think Salk is apprehensive re: Carter, but would tradedown over taking QB.
Thank god someone in the media has talked about Carter again
Not had enough of that
What they really need is more former Georgia players to weigh in on how good they think a Georgia player is.
I know right!
Let’s get someone from Georgia on to talk about a Georgia player
That’ll be a really honest, unbiased opinion
Dave Wyman: “Pete, John is 710 a joke?”.
Pete and John: “No Dave, you do an outstanding job of saying everything we want you to say. Oh, and a reminder, you’re due to defend the Jamal Adams trade again this week.”.
Dave: “Gee you guys are just the best!”.
A laminated piece of paper….”how good is Bobby? How great is it to have Bobby back?”
😴
Brock and Salk are both indifferent on Carter, Salk leans quarterback, I forgot about Brock. Bump and Stacy’s show is a dumpster fire. I live in the EST, so I throw on 710 from 9 to 1 if I have any breaks.
Dumpster fire is right. They could easily be on the fore front of using voice recordings and AI to do that show and it would never be different.
You know it’s ridiculous when they’re saying he talent wise Aaron Donald.
The said “Wouldn’t you risk taking Aaron Donald with character concerns?”
Seriously? They’re going so far overboard this morning.
Atleast Gee Scott has similar views to Rob.
He believes it will be Richardson or Anderson; & doesn’t see Carter as an option.
Too bad he’s not hosting our local sports.
Unfortunately, he like many seem to be very low on Levis; when asked if it’s Levis vrs Richardson at #5.
Regardless, he atleast seems open to other viewpoints. I really miss Jake being here.
Tired of only guest being people from Georgia and similar to keep pushing their narrative.
People forget that part of the reason Aaron Donald is Aaron Donald is because he’s a relentless MFer who trains harder than anyone in the league, brings 100% intensity every week and is the proverbial ‘pissed off for greatness’.
If he was skipping practises and meetings, not looking after his body, getting into legal trouble. He wouldn’t be Aaron Donald.
Cool
Rob-
Have you considered that if Carter played 85% of snaps though like Donald how good he’d be?
What if Donald only played sub 40%…would he be as impressive?
Got to go! I’m scheduled on pff’s YouTube to talk about how blonde haired qbs are basically the same.
(Btw….if you double carter’s snaps and double his production he’s still way less than Donald)
Love it!!
I really really hope we get Charlie Jones…
Same! Love Charlie Jones
Great work Rob. Call me crazy but I think Richardson falls out of the top 10. Not saying Seattle won’t have interest, just don’t think it will be at pick 5.
I agree could a trade up from 20 into the teens be possible ya never know
Out of top 10 based on what exactly?
I get apprehensions about Richardson but let’s get right here…
McDaniels traded to draft Tebow who looked like he was throwing a frozen butterfly turkey I’m college.
Then Atlanta. They would tear their quads running to the podium for Richardson.
Rob,
I love this draft. I think Richardson is a future MVP. I like the trade. The Purdue WR is a nice add.
Where did you have Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Daiyan Henley, and JL Skinner going?
If Richardson is gone at 5, I’d be cool trading back to add another Day 2 pick or another 1st next year. Maybe use some extra draft capital to trade up for Josh Downs. Or use the extra 2nd for Julius Brents or Darius Rush.
Would take this draft every year. Wypler and Izzy been top mid round picks ever since the CFB ended. I would like to see a WR3 drafted instead of Mazi, for some reason he disappears in big moments so no trust from me. If Downs is the guy you trade up two spots.
Probably right, that it is two potential future Pro Bowlers at C and Guard. It could happen.
My guess is Mr Staton has the Giants moving Tippmann to guard. He said before that he’s too big for center for the Seahawks.
He is. At 6’6 he makes even Max Unger look small. I believe he will do very well in the NFL. In the right scheme, he could be a Pro Bowl center. In any scheme, he has that same potential as a guard. Athletic AF and I certainly be happy if he ended up in Seattle, regardless of where they play him.
Brock Huard raves about him. Says he’s an alpha and true leader of men. He also said that Wypler is Joey Hunt 2.0.
So went a little off script here…. Why not use some of the capital and make this a boom or busy draft?
5.
Jalen Carter
DT Georgia
SEA
9.
Will Levis
QB Kentucky
trade icon
SEA
52.
Mazi Smith
DT Michigan
SEA
78.
Luke Wypler
OC Ohio State
trade icon
SEA
123.
Rejzohn Wright
CB Oregon State
SEA
151.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB Kentucky
How do you get the 9th pick? Trade 20 and next year’s 1?
20 and 37
And fant
Mr Staton ahead of the curve as always.
“Matt Miller of ESPN reported Thursday the Texans have Will Anderson Jr. ranked as their top overall prospect in the class and could wind up selecting the Alabama edge-rusher if the Carolina Panthers take Bryce Young with the top overall pick.”
No surprise. 👍
How does Matt Miller know?
Has he ever reported anything that has proven true?
He has a few from last year, like Pickett to Steelers at #20 and no other QBs R1, Stingley top 5, Walker #1, or Nakobe Dean falling. Of course, there are plenty that didn’t pan out either, as is the nature of these types of reports and “buzz”. But he definitely has a couple decent sources mixed in there.
Maybe I should start a new database of takes/reports from different “insiders” so we can look back and see who is actually worth paying attention to.
Sounds silly, but I might actually do it if I get bored enough after the draft…
In fairness though, these are things that were widely mocked. Not reported. He’s reporting here.
He’s also saying pretty emphatically were going defense at #5. Almost like it’s 100% Pete’s decision; because I can’t see anyone being so sure if Schneider is the decision maker.
Saying if Anderson & Wilson are gone, it’s Devon Witherspoon.
Hope he’s wrong about the QB part. I have to believe Schneider wants one.
With the greatest respect to Matt Miller
The Seahawks are not telling him what they’re going to do in the draft
Exactley
Why am I worried that Richardson will be there at #5 and we’ll somehow pick Wilson or Carter?
This is exactly what I have been thinking I’m literally waiting for Richardson to be there and having the biggest let down imaginable when they select Carter
I too think this is a high possibility. Just as Matt Miller and many say, the team knows it has to fix the D first and foremost. QB is what most on here want. But the team very well may see Drew Lock as much or a successor to Geno as any of the qbs after the top 2. If I had to guess the team takes Carter or Wilson over Richardson or Levis.
“Just as Matt Miller says”
You mean like when he said Russell Wilson was the worst pick in the 2012 draft?
“Have to fix the D”
They spend two top-40 picks on defense in this mock
“Carter”
Roll on two weeks
Ya, invoking Matt Miller is never a strong way to open your argument.
It makes absolutely zero sense to say they view Lock as the successor to Geno. Lock is 26 years old. He has yet to prove he can even be a mediocre starting QB. He and Geno were both free agents this year. He took $4M to be a backup. We gave Geno 3 years. Under no circumstance would this indicate they view Lock as the QBotF. If they were going to make that transition it would have happened now before giving Geno $60M guaranteed. Furthermore, it makes no financial sense to groom Lock as the long-term successor. He already costs as much as the #10 overall pick. If Geno gets hit by a bus and Lock takes over and magically wins a SB, he’s going to cost $30M+ a year.
I wouldn’t advocate for planning to develop Lock as your future starter, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that the team could feel that way. He’s still young, talented, was with a Denver team that hasn’t been able to develop a quarterback, and they raved about him last year before bringing him back.
If Anderson is the pick at #5, do you see any later round QB options that they might want to develop? If so, who?
I don’t
Rob was on another YouTube… Link below!
https://www.youtube.com/live/28CC1f5tU80?feature=share&t=1811
Five of my favorite players in the draft going to the Seahawks with thier first five picks? Count me in. I’d be sad to lost JSN at 20, though. If he last that long take him. Perfect slot/WR3 for us and a hedge against Lockett or DK missing games (esp Tyler).
I’m in total agreement – I think people are sleeping on how good JSN is as a prospect and he’s a perfect short term (slot receiver getting open all the time underneath) and long term (replacing Lockett and complementing DK) fit.
Not disagreeing on JSN as a prospect, but I just don’t see the Seahawks doing it. JS/PC have never gone WR in Round 1, and I don’t think JSN is the type of guy they’d break type for. The four WRs they’ve drafted in round 2 have all been legit speed merchants. Plus, I think the Sean McVay offence that Waldron runs really needs a slot receiver that can block and I’m not sure JSN is that dude.
I actually think that Pete will really like JSN, despite him not running in the 40 range that we’ve previously targeted. He has special athletic gifts (quickness) and has that ‘he’s the dude’ reputation – both his peers and opposing coaches (per Bruce Feldman) unanimously pointed towards him as the best of a pretty legendary position group.
However, I’m pretty sure he will go early teens as it sounds like most teams have him as the only R1 WR. And you are probably right that they will feel like they can address WR on day 2.
The Seahawks have consistently targeted players who run a 4.4 or faster
JSN barely cracked that on a fast track at pro-day and didn’t run at the combine
Something to remember
Right – this would require a bit of a departure from their 40 times as you have done a good job of identifying. I just can’t help but think they will like enough about him that they could overlook that. They’ve gone outside their normal thresholds for players several times.
In the end I expect it will be moot and he will go somewhere in the teens.
I’m a bit confused by the JSN stuff. To me he looks like the opposite of sudden on tape.
At the same time, Shane Waldron knew what do do with a slot receiver with outstanding quickness and route running and it became THE key piece in his offense with the Rams. Perhaps the fit offsets the precedent?
JSN has great agility though, not quickness
That’s fair. Easy to conflate the two. Man, that 3-cone was awesome. I think he is quick enough and great getting in and out of his breaks, which to me is important.
Another factor is this: I also thing it’s clear the league has come to really value top WRs in recent drafts. JSN shined when playing with other first rounders Wilson and Olave on the same team. There’s no reason to think his value will be misidentified in relation to the rest of the league by the Seattle front office. Guys you could have waited on in the past you must now take earlier if you want them. JSN would be the solution to our WR3 and be able to take a ton of targets, keeping Tyler fresh and really opening up the middle of the field for Geno & the offense.
Living down here in Fort Worth TX, the buzz around water cooler is that the fanbase would like to beef up the OL and DL lines. Torrence and Siaki Ika are the 2 names I keep hearing a lot on people’s wishlist. Jerry Jones went Zach Martin over Johnny Football years ago, and the Draft party at the Cowboys stadium rejoiced. I think Dallas goes more meat and potatoes than RB and WR that you have in you’re mock draft
While I don’t like the picks for seattle, and really hate to see us trade out of 20 for someone to grab the best WR (and best fit for our slot) in the draft- I do really appreciate the logic you added. I feel super confident you know seattle tendencies after reading your details. Great job. AR15 at 5 is fine for me too, but I really hate passing on these top 3 guys on D. Especially Carter. I hope we go DT+WR round 1 and wait on a center. Round 2 is too early for me. Rather take a TE or gaurd there. I appreciate your article a lot tho! Well done
The media’s done a great job with people on Carter
People legit expect this major impact player
He might need a redshirt year just like AR to get his conditioning sorted! Then you’ve got all of the other issues which are extensive
This is a great (and very fair) way to frame it!
I think that is how you should frame it for the next couple weeks. Spot on.
Everyone saw Lucas and Cross getting gassed down the stretch last year. And they were committed to the game!
I can speak from my own struggles in the gym over the years, how difficult it can be to get rid of habits and push forward.
For example, you could get JC into relatively decent shape by giving him a proper, regular gym program and a diet. If he sticks to it, he could get results within 4-6 weeks. And he will feel great and everything will be rosy. But that’s the easy part. When you then try and ramp things up to the next stage, that’s when it becomes easy to quit. Or get disheartened. Or feel like you can’t do it. And you plateau, lose interest, give in.
When he hits that wall — and he will do — is there any evidence to think he’ll push through it? Continue to live through a boring diet, do those grinding work outs which get harder and harder as they ramp up.
You either love it or you don’t really. I love the gym and even I get to a point where I get to a weight and think, ‘I’m too knackered to do this today’. And you have to fight that feeling. Is JC going to do it?
Because nothing about how he was treated at Georgia gives you that thought.
Taking Carter at 5 might be the equivalent of the Jamal Adams trade in terms of cost/benefit. And impact, I’m afraid.
And it would be for the same motive – chasing defensive legitimacy by talking yourself into a huge risk you know that you should not make.
100%
And I don’t think people really appreciate how challenging the projection is for teams with Carter. I wish I had a quid for every remark about his talent being ‘too good’ or that the legal issue is in the rear view mirror.
You’ve got to consider so many things. Whether he’s going to ever be coachable. Whether he’s going to work to deliver on his talent, or whether he’ll never be more than a rotational impact player because his conditioning dictates that. Then you have to think about your culture if you bring in a guy who is used to doing what he wants and not being held accountable, provided he turns up on a Saturday and plays. How does he impact other players? Many assume someone like Bobby Wagner will set Carter right. What if, instead, he does what he wants and it influences others? Then you go back to whether he’s capable of playing 17 games of NFL football when you watch what happened against Ohio State. And then the legal issues. I guarantee teams are getting PI’s and what not to dig into that. They’ll want to know exactly what happened, what his actions were.
So it’s so complex. It’s not a simple ‘well he’s too good’. And it won’t be even for the team who rolls the dice. They will know it’s a massive, massive gamble. And it might take 2-3 years for the light to switch on. Or he might just be Albert Haynesworth with $30m in the bank. You just don’t know.
What a ride the pre draft process is. I’m not at all interested in college football and am happy to duck in and out when Rob highlights a potential Hawk. In the weeks leading up to the college football playoffs I was mentally preparing myself for all the stupid ways the Hawks fail to land Carter. I made my old man sit and watch the Georgia OSU game with me and said “Keep an eye out for number 88. He’s the guy we’ve got to have”. Well we never fucking saw the guy, he was on the sideline so much. [Instead we watched one of the most accomplished displays of quarterbacking that I can imagine, from an undergrad]
I was out. That moment. Pre racing drama etc. I don’t know how there is still so much appetite for the guy and I think if you’re calling for him at 5 then you really ought to address this performance – before then addressing his training issues – before then addressing his character issues – before then addressing his legal issues.
Sorry, its Friday. TL/DR: Out.
I think what you and Rob are saying about effort, conditioning, coachability etc. is the key point about Carter. It’s not really about the legal issues.
I’m listening to the latest Hawkblogger podcast and even Brian and Dana are saying that the question about Carter’s love of football is the big question. Pete wants guys that love football and that’s why Carter wouldn’t be a Pete pick.
I’ve been lucky to be around some top level guys in the sports world. One, who was a great player, but not so much as an executive, said the hardest thing to judge is heart. He said even guys that say the right thing and show effort as a kid may lose that once they get paid. But the heart, effort, grit is what separates the talented from the successful.
It’s about everything.
No one thing stands out above the rest. It’s the collection of issues.
And teams are going to dig around those legal issues extensively. That’s why I speak the way I do. Character, football character, not looking after his body, conditioning, legal issues, background and upbringing, etc etc
It all matters
I certainly haven’t forgotten about Malik McDowell and have zero interest in Cartter if he falls to the 2nd round!
1000% spot on cha. And wasting the #5 overall IS the equivalent of the firsts that were wasted on Jamal.
Exactly it’s a huge jump for some players going from 12 games plus playoffs to 17 games before playoffs.
Only 17 players attending the draft. Down from 21 last year.
Keion White is an interesting name, I wonder if he has a promise from someone in the first round.
I genuinely believe Carter is in play for Seattle. I don’t think he’s off their board, and if he’s available at 5 will be an option.
It’s good to see all the work I’ve done for the last three months hasn’t gone to waste
I think you are bringing in newbies who haven’t t read the backstory. Keep it up!
KC is not Vegas, but I will be there.
Welllllll, there are casinos in KC. I’m likely to be there later this summer on a long motorcycle trip and plan on staying at Harrah’s for a couple of nights.
Have a good time man!
I’m getting impatient so I’ve just started seeing how ridiculous I can get with trades and such with the PFM sim. Here’s the latest where I managed to bunch up a ton of picks in a real sweet spot:
20. Brian Branch – S
31. Michael Mayer – TE
37. Josh Downs – WR
38. John Michael Schmitz – C
39. Ade Ade – EDGE
44 – Mazi Smith – NT
45. Jack Campbell – LB
123. Jonathan Mingo – WR
151. Michael Wilson – WR
154. YaYa Diaby – EDGE
198. Chris Rodriguez Jr. – RB
fwiw
Nolan smith is my: will not be shocked if Seattle drafts him pick.
I just don’t get it with him tbh. He’s a phenomenal athlete, yes, but for being more athletic than 99% of players his production was garbage. In 2021 he was 128th in the FBS in pressure rate among edge players, and 176th in pass rush win rate. He just isn’t a great pass rusher, so I don’t see him becoming the next Haason Reddick. A 238 lb edge isn’t going to hold up as an every down player in the NFL so realistically, what is his path at the next level if not transitioning to an off-ball LB?
I’m not so worried about the weight as a 3/4 edge given how well he played the run. I’m more concerned that his pass rush just looks pretty much lackluster from what I have watched. I have a lot of respect for Jim Nagy though, so certainly intriguing that his staff had him as their top incoming senior. I too am intrigued by the thought of him as an off ball player, though that is a total projection.
Haha not at all Rob! You know how much I love your superbly researched write ups.
I go back and forth each day about Carter. Reading more things to go in his favour, then remembering all the points you rightly raised.
Taking aside the legal issues if they didn’t exist – would you consider taking him based purely on his football ability? I know you say he coasted for much of the year, and he certainly shit the bed at the Combine no doubt.
Why separate them? His off field issues include laziness, uncoachableness, poir work habits. His on field is flashes of brilliance followed by 3 downs on the sidelines breathing oxygen. No thanks. ,
Where is the ‘uncoachable’ part? There is nothing about what you mention that a decent professional programme with the right coaches can’t fix.
You need to separate the issues. That’s exactly what the NFL teams will be doing.
And this ‘list’ of teams that have taken him off the board. To my knowledge its:
1. Raiders.
Please update if I have missed any off though (in sincerity).
The flashes of brilliance are indeed that. He’s not a finished article. But he’s got something. Consistent? No. Takes plays off? Yes.
If he’s in the right environment who knows.
And that’s the thing with the draft – it’s projecting for the future. What can an organisation do to take a college kid to the next level?
They had that at Georgia
And they clearly determined they were just going to let him do what he wants, whatever it took just to get him there on a Saturday
So what does that tell you?
I think you severely underestimate the support system these top tier college programs have for their athletes. If anything, they’re going to be expected to do more on their own in the NFL. Georgia has a professional fixer just for their football program. The football team has their own restaurant. Anything they need is available to them.
Trice
https://twitter.com/iamchrisjung/status/1183406551899496448
Wow!
Send this to my guy in Georgia.
What wotge he have been then? 17, 18 something like that.
That’s what I’m talking about when I talk about celebrating the guys that achieve rather than excuse make for others.
Fantastic draft and also an excellent podcast recently with Robbie & Adam. Had a chance to listen to it last night. Don’t know how you have the time to write articles during the day, and host your own or are guests on other podcasts several times a week too.
Good to see you still have a dry wit and sarcastic sense of humor about people not listening or reading all the problems with JC, and neglecting the option of choosing a QB in the draft. “It’s good to see all the work I’ve done for the last three months hasn’t gone to waste”
AR vs Texas A&M Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAm9sEtSvOY&t=219s
What a great talent and athlete this guy is. He points out a few minor flaws, but so much to love about his ability in several facets of the game.
Anthony Richardson going first round is laughable.
He SUCKED in college, was terrible vs Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
That was the only time the Gators have lost to those two teams in many decades. Gators had solid offensive player at all positions.
Your analysis on Torrence is ridiculous. He is concensus lower first top
Of the second round pick. Gators had damn good WRs, Just Shorter and Ricky Pearsall, RBs like Travis Etienne. Richardson was the
Problem. He will waste his rookie contract failing to be
A QB then switch to TE. Of course he don’t even play special teams.
With respect
Please stop
Look at what FL did in their bowl game without AR. Nothing. He made Etienne’s stats better because of the threat of him running. They had no one near the talent level of TE Pitts, RB Pierce or early drafted WRs that FL has had recently.
As far as Torrence, he still looked big, slow and sloppy at the Senior bowl after losing some weight. And he lost a LOT of 1 v. 1s with the DLs.
As long as you quit your job and spend the next two weeks an probably a couple hundred hours worth of YouTube, blog posts, national media outlets saying the same thing…I’ll allow it.
Ricky pearsall…..wow.
If you want consensus, read the mainstream blogs that seldom get it right. If you want reasoned analysis that in the long run has proven more accurate then listen to what Rob has to say. You don’t have to agree with everything, but you can give a reasoned rebuttal in a civilized manner.
If those receivers were “damn good” how do you explain all the drops?
Screamin’ hot taek, incoming!
You had me @ “of course (the QB) don’t even play special teams”.
Drafting 1 running back leaves Seattle with a total of 4. Last year they entered the preseason with 6. So more jags or free agents for a team that wants to run the ball? A team that churns through running backs? Trading Geno next offseason is a possibility by drafting Richardson, hate to see what happens to offense when typical injuries deplete the RB room, and his draft stock.
Adding a 7th cornerback, 4th TE and a LB you’ve mentioned as a position they could pass on seems redundant but this team is so lacking in depth you very well could be correct.
Are we really going to complain about the team spending another top-85 pick on a RB because two high picks isn’t enough??
They could add an UDFA or two and have a good competition
Well we could talk about Carter and Richardson some more?
Absolutely not complaining about Pitt RB. That still leaves us with only 4. And my mistake above, adding another TE makes it 5 total.
But I suppose JS still has Wayne Gallman, Tony Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins and Bo Scarborough on speed dial.
I just think if you spend a top-45 pick and a top-85 pick at the position, you can have a RB3 who is Deejay Dallas and a RB4 who is an UDFA or a cheap veteran.
And that very well could be the way they go.
For a team that says it want’s to run the ball it’s more lip service. Similar to the last 3 years of Pete saying we need to improve the pass rush.
Rushing rank;
2022 -18th (first year without Russ included)
I wouldn’t say two high picks at a position is lip service
I’m not sure what you think is an adequate investment here? Having two starter quality players and then some depth is fine
Let’s not go OTT
If they jettison Fant, and when Dissly goes on IR week 2 then what? And next year is coming.
“If” they jettison Fant they could maybe afford a FA RB? Kareem Hunt maybe is the best of what’s left?
“If” they jettison Fant it’s one less weapon for Geno and the offense. Made up by a 6th round rookie? Does that help Geno trade value?
Sorry if I missed this being covered already but who are some of the best draft eligible kick/punt returners for this year? Do we think they still try to resign Godwin Igwebuike?
Really agree with what you guys said as far as it takes too long for the draft after the combine. And then it’s anticlimactic and takes 3 months until training camp and the preseason. Another attempt at PFN’s mock draft with a trade down at 20 and more on day 3 for multiple lower picks.
5.
Will Levis
QB Kentucky
SEA
28.
Will McDonald IV
EDGE Iowa State
trade icon
SEA
37.
Mazi Smith
DT Michigan
SEA
60.
Luke Wypler
OC Ohio State
trade icon
SEA
78.
Zach Charbonnet
RB UCLA
trade icon
SEA
90.
Keeanu Benton
DT Wisconsin
trade icon
SEA
108.
Jonathan Mingo
WR Ole Miss
trade icon
SEA
123.
Emil Ekiyor Jr.
OG Alabama
SEA
149.
Cory Trice Jr.
CB Purdue
trade icon
SEA
162.
Roschon Johnson
RB Texas
trade icon
SEA
170.
Jay Ward
S LSU
trade icon
SEA
198.
YaYa Diaby
EDGE Louisville
SEA
212.
Anthony Bradford
OG LSU
trade icon
SEA
221.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB Kentucky
trade icon
SEA
232.
Josh Whyle
TE Cincinnati
trade icon
SEA
236.
Byron Young
DT Alabama
trade icon
SEA
240.
Nick Saldiveri
OG Old Dominion
trade icon
SEA
254.
Keondre Coburn
DT Texas
trade icon
That would be quite a haul.
Keep hearing how Jalen Carter is a can’t miss generational talent.
Jalen Carter Career stats over 3yrs.
STATS
2022 – 33 tackles / 16 solo / 3 sacks / 2 FF
2021- 37 tackles / 20 solo / 3 sacks / 0 FF
2020- 14 tackles / 3 solo / 0 sacks / 0 FF
Yes he is obviously physically talented and flashes on screen but where is the production of a generational talent?
Often seen him comped to Warren Sapp. Sapp had 19.5 sacks and 176 tackles in 3 yrs at Miami. He produced like a generational talent.
This 💯👊👊👊👊👊
This is their argument…
“Well that’s because of his limited snap count. If you look at his pressure rates and extrapolate that to double the snaps – he’d have great production.”
The problem with this thought is that considering the position; I’d bet my life that an increase in snaps would unequivocally and massively bring down the per snap production/pressure rate because it’s such a physically demanding position. They probably believe every MLB reliever would be a great starter if only they got to throw 6 innings per game instead of 1-2.
Yes his snap count was low because he was gassed and could not stay on the feild. If he can only play limited snaps that drastically reduces his value.
Have you ever seen a player out of shape and have limited snaps get to the pros and all of a sudden get in great shape and increase snap count dramatically?
Trust me; I don’t want Carter.
Objectively, conditioning can be improved rather easily. That said, it’s very hard to change human nature. He doesn’t seem to care; and people who don’t really care aren’t going to start caring after being given $30M and rewarded for their previous not caring.
I think Albert Haynesworth is a much better comp based on attitude etc.
Trevor have you considered that unlike the Miami championship team and then the Miami championship team with Tez on it that Georgia was sooooo good that Carter was resting because they didn’t need him?
Or
Maybe when we look at travon walker going first overall last year that should be at least a teeny tiny bit instructive as to what Georgia is all about, just saying.
If they “didn’t need him” then how is he a generational talent?
It’s hard for me to believe the Angels would take away at bats from Trout or Ohtani just because.
Georgia, btw, has produced many problematic players (2 of which were first rounders and out of the league in the 2 years) and haven’t exactly produced great NFL players on that side of the ball.
It’s like new math my friend….the most convoluted pretzel bending I’ve ever seen:
– so loaded they don’t need him
-did the dirty work so others could get stats
– teams schemed against him
Etc ad infinitum.
Meanwhile in the real world there are next level true generational dline talents that have curiously not had the excuse making.
Spot on. If you take away the character stuff – I like Carter as a prospect. That said, this idea he’s a no doubter, gonna dominate day 1 has me scratching my head.
I sincerely think the LSU highlight of him picking up the QB is one of those plays that have completely twisted people into believing he’s something he’s not. Quinnen Williams doubled Carter’s “career” production in 1 year.
“Generational talent.”
And I’m like….hold up. Didn’t Williams just enter the league…..
It’s funny you mention Walker because they were making the same excuses for him last year. Deep roster , used the wrong way, not the ideal scheme. Maybe he was a just a great athlete who is not that good a football player / pass rusher because that’s sure what he looked like at Georgia and last year with the Jags.
Sometimes guys are what they look like they are.
Carter looks like a crazy talented guy who could care less about football, the team or even being in shape. Maybe it’s simple and that’s exactly what he is.
It’s too bad that Carter wouldn’t produce measurable test results in the Combine. Whether he is the greatest or just average is unknown. Hard to back a guy who is not willing to test and can’t play all the snaps.
Oh Trevor, to quote Jim Bouton’s manager as stated in the book Ball Four, “tell your statistics to shut up”. That’s what the draft Carter crowd would like you to do.
Right. But we can all laud *for example* Jadeveon Clowney for being a game wrecking disruptor with out posting super star stats.
After multiple trade downs, I finished my first mock draft simulator. Young, Richardson, Anderson, and Stroud went off the board with the first 4 picks. Then I received a trade offer from Atlanta to move up from 8 and were offering 44. Surely I thought they were moving up for Levis. Nope! He went the very next pick to Detroit at 6. So with further ado, here is what I wound up with.
26. TE – Michael Mayer
35. Edge – Adetomiwa Adebawore
37. LB – Drew Sanders
44. Edge – Keion White
52. S – JL Skinner
68. QB – Hendon Hooker
71. CB – Julius Brents
89. C – Luke Wypler
121. WR – Jonathan Mingo
123. OT – Jordan McFadden
146. DT – Colby Wooden
154. RB – Deuce Vaughn
160. RB – Chris Rodriguez Jr.
198. DT – Byron Young
DT – DeForest Buckner(for trading back with Indy)
2024 Indy 2nd Rd
2024 Indy 4th Rd
I know I didn’t nail the beginning of the draft and let Levis slip through my fingers, but I tried to cover as many holes on the roster through the rest of the draft as possible.
I would need something like what the 49ers gave for Trey Lance to move out of the top 5, it would take 8 and their first rounders for the next two years plus a future 3 rounder. Otherwise you are just stacking the roster with ok players and no high level game changers.
Zero chance Hooker lasts to 68 imo. QBs that have even a decent chance to be franchise level don’t go that late.
I am all in on Anthony Richardson. I don’t think he’s going to be there at 5, but there is no one that would make me more excited as a Seahawk’s fan. Yeah he’s raw, but people are too focused on some of the negatives and not looking at some of the things that he’s already really effin’ good at for a 20 year old with limited experience (like working the pocket, some of the progressions he makes in a pro style offence and his compete factor even in games the Gator were losing).
I don’t know why, but if I were to guess at the two DL guys I think most likely to be Seahawks I’d go with Derick Hall and Byron Young (Tennessee). I’ve got a quasi-bad feeling (depending on what the Seahawks do at 5) that Hall might be a guy they take in the late first round that has media and fans crying “reach”. I’m not even saying I really like the dude, just that this blog has maybe slept on him a bit as a Seahawks option. 34 inch arms, 1.59 10 yard split. Lance Zerlein’s summary starts by listing him as a team captain with tremendous character. Then the anonymous AFC scout in the summary says “he’s tougher than shit and going to be a great fit in the locker room”. Looks and sounds like a Seahawk in his interviews.
QBoTF, check
Address the d-line, check
RB that can truly contribute, check
FINALLY a center, check
Love this draft Rob. Would I prefer a WR earlier, sure. Not much else to quibble about imo.
I find myself wishing that other fan bases could be polled as to who they do not want the Seahawks to Draft.
Was traveling out in Cali this week and had drinks with some of my buddies there (2 9ers fans, 2 Raiders fans, & a Rams fan).
The 9ers fans were surprisingly dialed into the draft. The Rams fan was about what you’d expect of a Rams fan. We ended up doing a draft on PFN, with the rule being that you had to pick the player the other people did not want you to take. It was a little skewed since the Raiders don’t normally play NFC West (dumb), they still hate the other three teams and did not want us to do well.
A couple weird notes.
Charlie Jones may have been the most coveted Day 3 player. Makes me wonder if he might be a surprise Day 2 pick.
The 9ers fans said they wanted to pick Young (TEN) at the end of R3, was surprised to hear them mention his name that early.
The Rams fan was mildly relieved that Anderson was the pick over Levis ‘Anderson is second scariest, but I think Levis would come in and be a star in your offense by year 2’. They stated they were hopeful the Rams would find a way to get Levis.
We also played that you could only accept a trade if your opponents would be pissed you got the deal. No trading up though.
Anyone with thoughts on the price the Seahawks will bring when they’re sold? Commanders went for a tad over 6 billion. Broncos for 4.65 billion.
I don’t think Seattle will get to 6 because the Commanders are a “legacy” franchise, east coast etc. But I do think, based on inflation, they’ll go higher than Denver even though the Donkeys have had more historical success.
Depends on the timing of the sale, but I would expect 5B minimum, probably closer to 6. Whatever it ends up being, it’s practically pocket change for Bezos.
A hard five. Though the broncos are a bit of a legacy franchise as well. So who knows.
Then again. Jody sad there’s no timeliness and I tend to believe it.
Historical success does not matter too much, what matters is the market size. You can argue that these things correlate, but Commanders have a big market. SEA will not beat that, but they have bigger than Denver, thus i expect them to be sold for the price in between Commanders and Broncos, inflation notwithstanding.
This. Legacy success doesn’t matter much in the valuation process. It’s primarily revenue opp and that is tied more directly to market size. These opportunities to own any professional sports franchise are so rare and the return so practically guaranteed, that they get bid up pretty astronomically.
Uhhhh Seattle and Denver market size are not the same.
Near identical local populations but denver consistently gets broadcast farther.
Seattle is one of the top 10 most valuable NFL franchises.
I haven’t seen the numbers, but from my own interactions, while traveling, I would guess it’s one of the top five international franchises
They do rent their stadium as opposed to own it
There also are quite a few local billionaires who might get involved in the bidding
Best gas should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 to 9,000,000,000
8-9 I could see that especially if they don’t get sold for 5 to 7 years.
Forbes pegged them at $4.5b last year and $3.5b in 2021.
If that valuation keeps gaining almost 30% a year, $7b by the time the team gets sold isn’t out of reach.
Holy hell
Had no idea valuation was climbing that rapidly.
Daniel Snyder is going to wish he hadn’t pissed off all his lawyers when that tax bill comes due.
NFL is still a relative bargain for less than 5 Billion.
Finally seeing an area where the inflation of something is outpacing eggs
Some interesting stuff here on Seattle’s trait tendencies when drafting prospects.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/seahawks-have-11-years-of-draft-biases-at-certain-traits/ar-AA19RBKK?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=be6615e894b54bda8d6ce2d90b335237&ei=12
https://twitter.com/RossTuckerPod/status/1646876858317942784
He’s not wrong.
Teams that rush AR onto the field due to fan pressure could be ruining the next great NFL talent.
Which is why he’s perfect for Seattle or Detroit. Please Houston, Indy, Commanders, Atlanta et. al. don’t draft this kid and ruin him.
If he ends up in one of those places, coaching will likely end up giving in to fan pressure, which will be enormous, and ruin this kid in the process. There’s an outside chance that if something like that were to happen he could go elsewhere and become Jim Plunkett or Steve Young, but those are very rare instances.
Arthur Smith will know how to put him in a good position, so I think it makes sense to add ATL to SEA and DET as attractive spots for him, but definitely do not want to see him somewhere where he has to go out there in the first couple of years in a bad situation.
“Nobody who roots for the Jets wants to see Zach Wilson play football ever again.”
Sad, but true. And funny.
My 10 favorite player / team fits in Rd #1
#1 Anderson and Texans. Demeco Ryans the All American stud LB at Alabama who was drafted by the Texans and went on to be a leader in thier defense drafts an All American stud LB from Alabama to do the same thing.
#2 Colts and Levis he has seemed destined for Indy since the season ended. Can’t you just picture him in the blue and white? Oh yeah that’s right Kentucky wears blue and white as well.
#3 Seahawks and Richardson. The Hawks are known to love freak athletes so why not take the biggest freak QB to ever enter the league.
#4 Devon Witherspoon and the Lions. Dan Campbell wants hard nosed ballers and no one fits that description better than Witherspoon in this draft.
#5 Brian Branch and the Patriots. When I think Patriots player I think smart, tough and reliable. That is Brian Branch.
#6 Micheal Mayer and the Packers. Mayer looks like he was born to roam the frozen tundra at Lambeau.
#7 Darnell Wright and the Steelers. When I think of the Steelers I still think of tough smash mouth football and that is Darnell Wright.
#8 Bijan Robinson and the Cowboys. Hate the Cowboys but it would be a thing of beauty to see the stud running back from Texas wearing the star.
#9 Dalton Kincad and the Bengals. The Bengals saw what Mahomes and Kelce did to them first hand so decide to get Burrow thier version of Kelce.
#10 Will McDonald and the Chiefs. When I think of the Cheifs I still think of Derrick Thomas and that’s who McDonald reminds me of the way he can bend around the edge. Think the Cheifs would love him.
Love this post. However……….please God don’t let the cowboys get Bijan. Please. He could make enough difference for that team that they could actually make an NFCCG or Super Bowl and I do NOT want that. I LOVE the futility of them sucking balls for the last 26 years. There was a meme going around last playoff season about Brock Purdy in his rookie year having as many playoff wins as Dak and Romo combined (true) in their entire careers. Let’s keep it that way Jerruh.
Agree completely about the Cowboys. Can’t stand them almost as much as SF.
Green bay made my list when we gifted them 100 turnovers and their oline said they kicked our buttons up and down the field…..scoreboard, bruh, scoreboard.
Plus the fail Mary fiasco. Plus their two great qbs being complete doofus’
I was a fan of the team in the 60s so still have soft spot for them. Lombardi rolls over in his grave over Rodgers I’m sure.
Man, all of these do seem like excellent fits, for both the player and the team! I sort of hate seeing a loaded Chiefs team pick up a talent like McDonald, but he’s an easy replacement for Frank Clark on their defense! It would be very much like the Cowboys to take Robinson as the replacement to Zeke, even though Tony Pollard has been outstanding for them!
Great post – those first 4 especially make so much sense. If Houston passes on a QB it is hard to believe they wouldn’t take Anderson.
I have been a proponent of rookie contracts since when Russ got his first big deal years ago. Every roster has the same 8 premium positions. QB, LT, WR x2, Edge x2, and CB x2. Each team may likely have an Elite player or two at other positions as well. That makes 8-10 premium contracts on one squad…No way will that ever fit into a salary cap.
If a team has half of those premium positions on rookie deals, this begins to be affordable. That said, the Seahawks now have 2 CBs, one Edge, and one LT on the cheap. With our elite Safety contracts, we now have 7 bigger contracts for veterans on this roster, with a couple of those being medium-ish (Nwosu and Love).
There will be needs going into next year as well. That said, a rookie QB is totally worthwhile. Because so few of the playoff-caliber QBs are taken at the very top of the draft, I am willing to wait to round two. Hendon Hooker is a Geno clone who should be available in round two.
He throws a very tight spiral, is super accurate, and makes so few turn-overs, It is hard for me to consider the Hawks would go with any other QB option this year. Especially since getting him allows for us to use our first-rounders so we can get elite elsewhere.
Elite Edges and Game-wrecking DTs are rarely available anywhere but early in the draft because elite athleticism is a must there. That is where I go for the first round. ‘Mr. Irrelivant’ surprizes simply do not happen at those disrupting positions.
That just isn’t true. There are plenty of elite NFL DLs who weren’t top 5 picks or even first rounders. I also have no idea what you’re trying to say with “so few of the playoff-caliber QBs are taken at the very top of the draft”. Like… what? The NFC was a bit weird this year but literally every single AFC playoff QB was a first rounder, 6 of 7 were top 10 picks and 2 were #1 overall picks. It’s far, far, FAR easier to find an elite lineman after round 1 than it is to find even a serviceable playoff-caliber QB.
Chris Jones (2nd round)
Dre’Mont Jones (3rd)
Javon Hargrave (3rd)
DJ Reader (5th)
Calais Campbell (2nd)
Dalvin Tomlinson (2nd)
Maxx Crosby (4th)
Josh Sweat (4th)
Za’Darius Smith (4th)
I would think would after last season that PCJS would emphasize run defense and tackling when selecting defensive players.
Everything I have read about Will McDonald says thats not him, “limited to being a designated pass rusher because he struggles significantly as a run defender.” I get the importance of pass rushers, I’m just wondering if this is the best use of that pick.
Would Myles Murphy be a better choice with this pick?
Myles Murphy isn’t a 3-4 OLB
And he also isn’t good against the run.
Can I ask what other players you considered in this range when you did your mock?
You are providing such a wide variety of narratives Rob. It is hard to imagine how different it would be following the Hawks WITHOUT SDB. Cha and commenters add a lot as well. I’ll once again encourage the frequent followers to “Pay the iron price”, and become a Patreon contributor 😎.
Jeffrey
I’ve been banging that pay the iron price drum ever since season ended.
Thanks Jeffrey 👍
Without SDB, we’d be led to believe that Geno is a HOFer and Jalen Carter is Reggie White 2.0
Hey Rob, Thank you for your comprehensive, insightful and amazingly prolific SDB. I’ve followed the Seahawks as a casual fan since 1976 but have really enjoyed being a fan more since I started reading your SDB. In recent years I have enjoyed SDB more than many of the Hawk games, which I have been known to quit watching before halftime. I’ve also subscribed to your Youtube channel. You and Robbie have such great passion. Keep up the great work(though I do wonder if your wife gets any time with you).
Thank you 👍
Rob Staton doesn’t sleep…he waits.
That Illinois defense was stacked last year with a ton of guys who would look good in a Hawks uni particularly in the secondary.
Witherspoon
Sydney Brown
Chase Brown
Jatavius Brown
Calvin Avery
Have to think at least one of these guys ends up a Hawks. Think the Brown twins would be a lot more successful than the more famous Griffin twins for the Hawks .
They are definitely looking at someone from that Illinois defense.
They’re becoming secondary U. Similar to the Hawkeyes and tight ends
Just heard Jim Nagy on Sirius suggesting AR could slide all the way to end of 1….I wonder if that’s more in-line with NFL GM’s process vs the media going nuts on his potential.
If Seattle went with for example Jalen, or Wilson at 5 – they could use 20+52+5th round and move up with Phili at 10 and take Richardson there.
I think we need to prep that at 5 and Richardson still there that Seattle doesn’t pick him, but have plans to get him shortly thereafter. I’ll restrain myself from throwing anything at the TV in that scenario
Everyone has at least one stupid opinion
I feel much more confident that Carter is calling the VMAC home than Wilson.
Wilson is Lawrence Jackson 2.0, doesn’t fit at any position. Drafts that have Wilson and Kancey on the Hawks have way more faith in Hurtt than I do.
If AR gets past the Hawks, Lions, ATL, LAS… I have to imagine that the Bears would the team that does the trade. TEN and Washington are much closer.
AR sliding to the end of round 1? Not possible. Nagy should have his head examined.
I’m not going to easily dismiss Nagy – he regularly talks to people throughout the NFL. So while this doesn’t make sense to me, it could be inline with what some NFL teams are thinking. A lot of the former GMs who now do media are relatively dismissive about taking a project QB early – particularly Mueller on his Athletic podcast with Sando, and to an extend Spielman on CBS, though he likes Richardson a lot. I’ve been thinking that they are stuck in the past, but it wouldn’t be a total shock if some teams are hesitant to spend early draft capital on a player so early in his development curve. Not many GMs have the job security to think they will be there in 3 years when you hope Richardson has really developed.
I’ll step back from my earlier “stupid opinion“ comment vis-a-vis Jim Nagy. Instead, I’ll say this: Nagy is no different than anyone else in that he is susceptible to being propagandized by people who are in a position to do so. If a GM wants the rest of the league to think Anthony Richardson is going to slip to the end of the first round, he tells someone like Jim Nagy that’s what he thinks. That doesn’t actually mean that’s what he thinks. It also doesn’t mean that’s what Jim Nagy thinks, and so it’s not a stupid opinion. I recognize he’s not even expressing an opinion, so much as just relaying what it is he’s hearing. My apologies for the unwarranted criticism Jim.
But do the math yourself. Logic it out. It’s a QB centric game, and a QB centric league. Do you really think a dozen or so quarterback needy teams are going to pass on a prospect with generational potential at that position?
Let’s not forget that we’re only one year removed from a draft season where all the talking heads said that 3 or 4 QBs would go in the first round. But we knew better on SDB.
Yep, Nagy could be given false information by a team. But he tends to talk in general terms of what he is hearing from multiple teams, such as his comments on him hearing from a bunch of teams that JSN is the only receiver graded as a first rounder. So I would guess that Nagy’s comments on Richardson come from conversations with a variety of teams.
That being said, I agree that it makes the most logical sense that someone drafts him early. He is too talented and has shown enough glimpses of good processing and natural feel to think that he is a good bet to work out. If Seattle’s pro-day meeting and background work on him were positive I would want them to trade up even to make sure they get him. He’s the player I would be most excited about drafting.
I tend to agree that Nagy does have some better connections then say a Adam Schefter when it comes to draft season. I’d imagine that JS sees the chess board and knows who he MUST have, and if it’s determined that AR is the QBOTF, then he can’t risk anyone from 7-19 taking him. Heck, TB would take him at 19 in a nano second.
But GM’s must be balancing value and board positions all the time. If anything else the news of recent Levis love and the sudden AR note to GM’s – it sounds like AR lasting to 5 is more realistic than it was just a week ago, especially since the combine.
I could definitely see a world where this happens
1. Young.
2. Anderson.
3. Texans trade back up take Carter.
4. Levis.
5. Stroud.
6. Witherspoon.
7. Wilson.
8. Darnell Wright
9. Paris Johnson.
10. Bijan
11. Skoronski
12. Cards take Nolan Smith.
….
At this point, Richardson is in danger of a slide, they will likely be team is looking to move up to take him, finding a trade partner is tricky, though. And all of the teams in this range have shots at their positional ones or twos.
An organization that takes Richardson is going to have to be comfortable sitting him for a year, teams like Washington, and Tampa Bay don’t really have that luxury Neither does Green Bay.
Detroit becomes the next best landing spot, but what if they don’t like the fit?
If you want to make it even more complex, I assume that Indy completes a deal for Lamar Jackson.
I think Richardson is such a perfect fit for Arthur Smith’s system, I would love to see him end up in ATL if we don’t draft him. Arthur Blank has generally given his GMs and coaches a decently long leash to figure things out that they might feel like they could take him.
Agreed
And I still think they’re gearing up to make a move up
Oh, I wasn’t saying I thought it was likely they would pass
Just giving air to the idea of how that could happen.
I, for one, would love to get Richardson with our 2nd first round pick!
Jim Nagy is one of the nicest persons you will ever meet. And he is everywhere during the Senior Bowl, just like Santa Claus.
Jim Nagy is an absolute genius when it comes to draft grade. And to be fair that’s how you want to draft.
However, as opposed to draft analysis it doesn’t take into account team need and positional impact value.
Draft analysis has a political/social/fiscal component as well.
Who else would like to see cha on a live stream?
Definitely!
4Sure!
Oh yes, would love that.
🙏
Two weeks to go here are the top 5 players I’d be most excited to draft.
#1 Anthony Richardson QB
Nothing else in this draft matters to me if we snag this guy. I already loved this guy and the draft process has only convinced me further. I think he’s a future MVP and a guy that leads us to 10 years of contender status. I’d trade up to get him.
#2 Devon Witherspoon CB
Got. That. Dog in him. Not the most realistic option because I think he’s a lock for the Lions at #6 if we don’t take him at 5, but as well as being a fucking maniac in run support, he’s also a very sticky cover corner.
#3 Adetomiwa Adebawore DL
Fun game to play when watching his tape: pause it just after the snap and look where he is vs the rest of DLine, the get off for a guy his size is insane. He was played out of position for a crap Northwestern team and had one of the best combine performances ever. I think his best football is in front of him.
#4 Darius Rush CB
4.37 40, 33 3/8″ arms, reciever background. Love his profile for the Seahawks at corner with a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
#5 Chris Rodriguez Jr RB
I want a physical power back to compliment Walker and this guy fits the bill with a price tag that is ideal. I think he’s getting massively underrated. Love that he wears 24 too.
While I’m here a quick 5 I don’t want (at their price tag)
#1 Jalen Carter DL
Goes without saying.
#2 Tyree Wilson EDGE
I’ve gotten more into him than I was, but I just feel he’s a player you should be taking in the teens, not at 5. I’d much rather several other edge rushers later on.
#3 Jack Campbell LB
I’ve never seen a player with such an impressive physical profile that shows up so little on tape. Massively overrated.
#4 Ocyrus Torrance OG
I will never be able to forget him get decleated by Ivan Pace at the Senior Bowl.
#5 Calijah Kancey DL
Bit of a controversial one I know. And I like him, I really do, but I think with his size and arm length you’re just not getting a 3 down player and the price tag is too high for that imo. If he falls to Rd2 I’m all over it.
Both lists are pretty reasonable. I feel the same way about Ade and Richardson
Ok. I’ll do you one better your list is +1, and for me at any price, DO NOT WANT
I’m almost embarrassed to share my top 5, I haven’t completed my Wishlist yet, so as of right now.
1. Josh Downs – it goes against my grain to select a receiver like him (small, not eye-popping) but he is so polished, so mature, I want to cheer for this guy. I was watching his tape (and while being thoroughly unimpressed with Maye) found myself fantasizing about running him out as a Y. Having a guy who has character like Steve Largent did, feels right.
2. Mayer – I know we won’t get a shot at him in the real world, but if we did, oh yeah! I feel like the Seahawks have been searching for a solid TE for my entire life – Mayer looks like the fix. Plus athlete, great feel for the game, understands space, blocking. PFN keeps letting me get Mayer and Downs… that makes the 2024 Seahawks almost look unfair.
3. Zacch Pickens – seems like the forgotten man. I would not be mad at Pickens being the pick at 52, but worry he won’t be there. Watch him at the Senior Bowl! He struggles against double teams are highly overrated. He also reminds me of DreMont, but more athletic and twitchy. Another mature leader type.
4. Byron Young (ALA) – i was there in the ground floor with him before Rob. The more I’ve watched of Bama, trying to understand these critiques of Anderson, it is Young who stands out. I struggle to imagine him a day 3 pick, seems like another high-character leader.
5. Overshown – I was watching Texas D for Ojomo and Coburn, I came away desiring Overshown to an unreasonable degree. I feel like he is another alpha dog to add to a defense struggling for an identity. Rob suggested using him like Kam was used, and that seemed perfect.
6-10 Anderson, Cameron Young, Sydney Brown, Charlie Jones, any QBoTF
Downs is really interesting to me. I’m not as high on him as Rob is, but watching his tape he just seems to have an uncanny ability to get that yard or two of separation at the top of his routes that makes his QB look good. I know a lof people comp him to Lockett and I can see why, but he also reminds me a bit of Baldwin.
Doesn’t have world beater speed or a massive catch radius, but just has a knack for getting open when it counts. I could see having a WR like that on the field would do wonders for a QB, who knows he can put it out there at the top of the route and trust that his guy is going to be able to seperate and close on it.
DK in studio with cowturd in about 2 minutes if you’re interested
Thanks for putting this together.
Maybe the most critical element of how the Seahawks are able to drop in high level talent in this draft is how the board falls with regards to edge and wide receiver. If we can use #20 & #37 to nab a combination of Ojulari/Adebawore/McDonald and Flowers/Downs/Mingo they will be set up nicely to go BPA for many of the remaining picks.
Spending #52 on a center seems like a bit of a reach for percieved need. I think the addition of Evan Brown was a hedge against truly needing to go OC/OG on day 1 or 2 unless unpassable value presents itself.
I’m also hoping that Seattle double dips at the RB position with a late round selection of Sean Tucker or late round/UDFA Deneric Prince.
I loved the Evan Brown contract as a value signing, but that’s a one year deal for a guy who has very limited experience. Center is a long term need and interior depth and competition is a short term need. I think Brown is a hedge against having to reach for a player, but 53 seems just about right for Wypler.
There are going to be some damn good ball players available at #52 at positions that are way more valuable than center. The drop off in impact by talent from #52 to #83 at RB/TE/DB for instance is almost certainly going to be way more pronounced than it will be at OC. Hypothetically, would you rather have Charbonnet with Brown at OC; or, DJ Dallas with Wypler at OC?
I would rather have C and both tackle positions locked up for the next several years and feel like we have a strong foundation up front to both run behind and to give our passing game the best chance to be successful. Maybe Brown is part of that but I would say that is a bit of a question mark still. Brown also has the versatility to play guard, meaning that if we acquire another center we would have that much more depth and versatility. After years of substandard center play I am not totally on board with center being a low value position.
The ultimate goal is to “lock up” any position for years when drafting that high. I’m not saying that OC is without value, just that it is unquestionably the least valuable position of all starting 22 spots — even affirmed by Jason Kelce. Seattle was able to get near-MVP level play out of Penny at the end of ’21 with slightly better than replacement level play out of Posic at the position, and outstanding (albeit inconsistent) production out of Walker with Blythe playing. Even Creed Humphries was picked in the 60’s and he was a far better prospect than Wypler. No doubt every Seahawks fan wants to see better pass & run blocking in ’23, but if we can improve upon last year’s bad OC play with an early day 3 pick and use the #52 to add talent at positions of higher value, I think that’s the way to go. Evan Brown’s contract just gives some breathing room so we don’t have to miss an opportunity to steal a quality player in the 1st 2 days.
There is the whole collapsing pocket thing as well, not just whether an RB can ink a few 100s. I went back and watched Mazi vs OSU over the debate about grabbing an NT so high … and came away wanting Wypler. Interior pressure (in the passing game) has been rough on SEA. So while it is arguably the least valuable position, there were 2 in last years Superbowl and neither sucked. But sure, I’d rather fill the spot end of 3rd or later.
Ya, not of no value whatsoever…but with Schmitz, Tippmann, Wypler, Mauch and maybe even Ekiyor as options, you have to think that Seattle can address the position at #83 or #91 and come out well. After all, the OCs in the Super Bowl you referenced were both day 3 guys, right.
But this scheme calls for a good short shuttle
And that limits you to JMS, Wypler and Mauch
Considering that, on average, less than 2 Centers go in the first two rounds every draft we should be sitting good waiting until the 3rd with Brown as our contingency. Other teams will have different scheme fits, so if John practices patience (and doesn’t reach as he mentioned on the radio) we have a high likely of getting a quality player at #52 and nailing the OC in round 3.
And what if they really like JMS and Wypler and see them as a long term answer?
You’re going to avoid taking them just because?
Some people like Jim Nagy think JMS is legit one of the best players in the draft
Hopefully I’ve articulated why I think there is a good chance Seattle can address the position after #52 better than “just because.”
So, how high would you be willing to take JMS on the strength of Jim Nagy’s assessment? #20? #37?
We do need a center, but there are diminishing returns on the value the position provides. Perhaps PCJS look down to the Bay and see Hargrave & Armstead blowing up our shot at the division, so they want the best OC they can draft. But, is a group with Schmitz in the middle going to be significantly better performing than one with Tippmann or Mauch to the degree that we pass on a top Edge or WR prospect?
If they like a center that much, I don’t have a problem with them taking one in the 20’s
Ok, so that’s an interesting exercise…
If we go QB at #5 then OC at #20, then how would you propose to build the DLine which was Pete’s #1 stated off season objective?
You have two second round picks and a third round pick
Of course it all depends on how the board falls, but there seems to be significant drop off from the Edge & DL available at #20/#37 as compares to #37/#52. The front office has created a need at NT/DT that will likely have to be addressed within the first 3 picks, so that leaves you hoping that Diaby or FAU fall to #52. Effectively, they could give up a shot at the non-Anderson tier of Edge so that Schmitz could get blown up by Armstead slightly slower than a 3rd rounder would.
I think you’re over-reacting
The EDGE options at 20 and 37 are similar. They have met with Diaby and Young as mid-round options. They already have Nwosu, Mafe and Taylor.
Defensive tackle they can easily address in R2-4
Good mock…but Trice is far too good to be there at #152. The Sherm comp is apt, but don’t expect a similar pick range for him.
Well a year ago I had Tariq Woolen graded in R2
And he lasted
You had Lucas in R1 if memory serves
Yup
Are you submitting a Huddle Report this year Rob?
Yep
Trice has great tape
So did Abe Lucas
I see Jalen Carter apologist fan club has made it’s usual appearance. What youtuber football experts don’t see when they “turn on the tape” to watch Jalen Carter is the 70% of snaps he’s not on the field.
I literally watched a glowing video yesterday where they analyzed three plays by Carter to prove how dominant he is. THREE PLAYS. And the third was where he was a fullback on a goal line situation. I dare everyone to go back and watch every snap of his from the Ohio State game.
Wouldn’t take long…
The closer we get to the draft, the more I’m becoming convinced at the first two picks will be Bryce Young to Carolina at 1 and Will Anderson to Houston at 2.
I’m much less certain what Arizona does at 3, but I think it’s more likely they trade out and whomever trades up, whether that’s Atlanta, or Las Vegas — I doubt it’ll be the Commanders because they’re up for sale, and that’s not the kind of move you expect an organization would make with a sale pending — whoever moves up with Arizona will take a QB, either Stroud or Richardson in my opinion.
I’m certain Indianapolis will take Levis at 4.
That leaves Seattle picking the remainder of Stroud and Richardson. Very doubtful it would be Tyree Wilson.
With respect to Houston, and them going defense instead of QB at 2, I think it’s possible they may try to trade back up from 12 with Arizona. They have the draft capital to go from 12 to 3 no problem. It could be them that makes Seattle’s decision at 5.
Texans grabbing two of the top Defenders in the draft feels like a SF/NE way to get things going there.
And frankly, if I’m LAS/ATL I assume that means that the Hawks take Stroud, meaning that you’ve got to work out something with Detroit if you want AR. Also teams like TEN or WAS could be looking to jump up if AR is available at 6. Maybe even TB.
I’ve inked in Young to Carolina.
I think the NFL has a rule about not announcing the pick until draft night though.
HOU is in the “enviable’ position that they can take DTR or Haener in Round 4 -7 and see an upgrade at QB.
Seattle could and should move up whether it’s to #2 or #3. Relying on hopium just feels like setting up for disappointment and missed opportunities that you’ll likely never get again.
The same way we don’t want to come up empty without a QBOTF from the Russell is trade, certainly the Texans feel the same about the Desaun Watson trade. While Houston may be closer to picking again this high again vs Seattle, this isn’t a great edge class but it is a great QB class. Houston will do the smart thing and take the the #2 QB on their board. If they feel Davis Mills can start for them they can even take a player who needs to sit a year and wing for the fences with Richardson, sadly.
Will the seahawks select corner in round one…..?
Give me strength.
Maybe.
Why isn’t the draft here already?
I mean players that haven’t selected in round one: cb, punter, long snapper.
How has this become the talking point du jour? If you’re arguing bpa why not Bijan Robinson at #5. Or #20?
He might be the literal best player at football in the draft.
And I’m not against it in principle.
It’s not just that we’ve never selected a CB in round one, we’ve never selected one in round two either. And only ONCE in round three.
And I would looooooooooovvvveeeeee Bijan at 20.
Bijan?….now that I’m here for.
Bet the farm Seattle doesn’t take a first round CB. Bet a lot they don’t take one in the first two rounds. You’ll be safer that way.
Julius Brents in the third could be a thing.
Aaaand yet another case of what Rob has been saying all along…
https://twitter.com/LanceZierlein/status/1646935360251764740
JMS good stuff, although I can’t really shake the image of him getting rag-dolled by Calvin Avery.
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1646843338920738816
But CarterHawk88 just told me, on a different site, that JMS is a Day 1 starter and that Avery is a JAG who couldn’t hold Ika’s gym bag.
Here’s a mock where I stuck with Levis at #5 (PFN has AR going to Indy at #4). Traded down from #20 and made a couple other small move backs to improve some later picks while still securing the guy I was targeting. I’d be pretty happy with this:
5.Will Levis, QB Kentucky
31. Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame
37. Josh Downs, WR North Carolina
52. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
56. Calijah Kancey, DT Pittsburgh
63. Keeanu Benton, DT Wisconsin
83. Luke Wypler, OC Ohio State
151. Tyjae Spears, RB Tulane
198. Puka Nacua, WR BYU
237. Nick Saldiveri, OG Old Dominion
In your mind, which are the best value picks for the Hawks in this draft at positions of need?
DT Wait for Young from Bama in round 4?
NT Smith UM or Benton Wisc – both in round 2?
WR Flowers/Downs/Addison round 2 or Mingo/Wilson from Stanford/Jones Purdue later?
Edge ?
Center ?
Thanks for your thoughts!
Looking to root for value on draft day!
Go Hawks!
Also, thought this was interesting that I found on Walterfootball ranking the edge defenders this year with the group from last year to make one list overall.
Thoughts? Go Hawks!
Merging the 2023 and 2022 prospects
Will Anderson
Travon Walker
Aidan Hutchinson
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Tyree Wilson
Myles Murphy
Jermaine Johnson
George Karlaftis
Lukas Van Ness
Logan Hall
Arnold Ebiketie
Tuli Tuipulotu
Isaiah Foskey
Will McDonald
Boye Mafe
Nolan Smith
A fun exercise. My list would be way different. Hutchinson over Walker to start with…