Are we seeing Russell Wilson’s limitations exposed?

Wilson is a phenomenal quarterback and nobody can argue otherwise. He’s destined for the Hall of Fame, he is immensely talented and he’s the main reason Seattle continues to chalk up winning season after winning season.

While ever Wilson is in Seattle, the Seahawks will always be in position to claim a winning record.

Yet this Titans game, paired with the end of last season, raises a concern.

The coordinator has changed but the same issues exist. Just as last year the offense would stutter and stall and have no way of getting out of a funk, the same thing happened against Tennessee.

When things spiral and start to go wrong, there’s seemingly no return.

Look at Ryan Tannehill yesterday. He was clearly aided by Derrick Henry’s running, for sure. But he was able to find the little checkdowns, take what was given and ultimately keep his offense on schedule.

Wilson is at his best throwing the deep ball and extending plays to make magic happen. Staying on time, getting the ball out quickly, working the middle — is he capable of doing the stuff you take for granted when a quarterback of his undoubted talent so often blinds you with dazzling downfield shots and making the improbable happen?

An offense with as many weapons as the Seahawks have shouldn’t be shuddering to a halt like it did yesterday. To only have one scoring drive in the second half — courtesy of a horrible blown coverage by the Titans — isn’t acceptable.

I fear we’re in a place now where Wilson’s personal ambition, to prove unequivocally that he’s one of the best of all time, requires him to play in a way that arguably doesn’t suit him. He wants to do some of the things the Drew Brees’ of this world found effortless but Wilson occasionally finds more of a challenge.

Essentially, he’s an improv and deep-ball specialist and really good at it. He does a lot of other things well too. But throwing the intermediate passes and playing a consistent timing/on script brand of football is more of a challenge.

To Wilson though, he needs to marry the two to get to where he wants to be. And maybe he can’t do it. Maybe, at some point, he’ll need to embrace what he is and isn’t.

You can change the coordinators but the same issues existed against Tennessee.

I can’t remember the Brees’ or Tom Brady’s ever having a stretch like Wilson had at the end of last season. And the fact it showed up in the second half again on Sunday is troublesome.

None of this is to diminish the extreme positives Wilson brings to the table. He’s an exceptional player and whatever happens in the rest of his career, he’ll be one of the all-time greats. He might be the prettiest deep-ball thrower of all time and he helped change the game in terms of how the NFL views quarterback size and mobility.

But yesterday’s game and the end to last season hints at road blocks for Wilson achieving the kind of world domination he hopes for. Too often, the stuttering and stalling has reared its head.

If the Seahawks and Wilson don’t find a way to stop that happening — and if they ultimately don’t move forward this season and go further than they have in previous years — then a mutual parting becomes increasingly likely.

How much longer will Pete Carroll go on?

Although many are prepared to dismiss what happened with Wilson and his apparent openness to a trade last off-season, it takes a serious suspension of reality to think that if the Seahawks don’t take a step forward in 2021, old wounds won’t re-open.

And if that’s the case, part of me wonders how Carroll will feel.

Does he really want to be the coach who oversees Wilson’s departure from Seattle? Does he really want to engage in a rebuild of the roster aged 70?

Cast your mind back to 2017 when things got ugly and the Seahawks were blown out by the Rams. Facing a reset in the off-season, Jay Glazer went on Fox Sports before the final game of the year and said the following:

“It’s gonna be Pete’s decision whether or not he moves on, they could be in a rebuilding year here, but Pete may or may not actually retire.”

Albert Breer had already written the following in the lead up to week 17:

“Crazy? Maybe. But with the future of several big defensive stars in question, and a possible overhaul of the roster coming, could Pete Carroll, 66, retire to southern California? It’s not the wildest idea out there.”

Carroll tweeted in reaction to this talk to say he wouldn’t be retiring. However, Glazer is not an unreliable reporter. He never actually said Carroll ‘would’ retire either. He simply suggested it was on the table.

Generally you don’t throw stuff out there like that as a reporter unless you’ve heard something. It wouldn’t be a major surprise if Carroll at least considered it at the time.

That talk was also emerging with Carroll only a year removed from signing a contract extension which had two years left to run.

I’m not predicting anything here, simply offering this as a talking point. If there are many more performances like Sunday — and if the Seahawks don’t take a step forward in 2021 — I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Carroll at least considers what he wants to do.

After all, he doesn’t owe anyone anything. Whatever happens from here, he’ll be a Seahawks legend who is much loved in Seattle. He’s a Hall of Fame candidate.

But if he was considering his options ahead of the reset in 2018 — I’m pretty sure he might do so again if the franchise is entering a period where they might be making even bigger changes.

The problem with the defense

One of the refreshing things about the Shane Waldron appointment was it came from outside of Carroll’s circle of trust. It provided some hope that maybe he’d be willing to cede some control.

Defensively however, the coordinator is very much one of the boys for Carroll.

Perhaps influenced by an improved second half to the 2020 season, there was never even any talk of Ken Norton Jr losing his job. Yet the powder-puff schedule played as big a part as anything in their ‘success’ — a situation put into perspective when the Seahawks played the Rams and were hammered by a thumbless Jared Goff.

Yesterday against the Titans was a throwback to the problems of last season. The Seahawks gave up major yardage, provided no resistance and couldn’t hold onto a big lead.

It felt like the New England, Dallas and Arizona games all over again. The offense puts points on the board but then stalls, then the defense capitulates under immense pressure.

Carroll referred to the amount of yards they gave up last season in a press conference recently. He suggested it was a freakish situation. An anomaly.

Yet look at Tennessee’s yardage compared to the other games at the start of 2020:

Atlanta — 506
New England — 464
Dallas — 522
Minnesota — 449
Arizona — 519
Buffalo — 420
LA Rams — 389

Tennessee — 532

I’ve long thought Carroll should take on the role of figurehead rather than controller. I think he should’ve self-scouted and read the tea leaves. He is a master motivator who delivers a terrific culture and environment.

Scheming, game-management and details are not his forté.

Appointing specialist coordinators to run the offense and defense and taking on a role as the man overseeing from afar felt like a good idea. It’s what Nick Saban has done in Alabama. Yet rather than delegate, Carroll doubled down on control last year as things started to go south.

The Waldron appointment was encouraging but with the same issues emerging on offense, you have to wonder if Carroll has truly taken the training wheels off his bike.

After all, when quizzed last week for an example of a play Waldron had introduced in the Colts game, Carroll instead praised his coordinator for his willingness to retain aspects of the old offense. It was a bizarre answer.

Defensively, the Carroll and Norton Jr combo remains unconvincing and uninspiring. And while people have been celebrating (and overstating, for me) the D-line depth and the pieces available — the unit is still far too easy to play against. Even in front of a raucous home crowd.

Admittedly it doesn’t help when you reflect on how they’ve constructed this defense. As we’ve talked about so much — massive investment at safety and linebacker is a head-scratcher. And if you’re going to spend two first rounders and a third, plus $17.5m a year, on a safety — you hope for game-changing quality.

Yet it’s so difficult for a safety to provide that. When you have a top-class pass rusher, they are in 1v1 situations all the time. How often do you see a great defensive lineman take over a game? Maybe even win you a game? The best in the business have a knack for it.

For a safety it’s so much harder to impact games. In the case of Jamal Adams, the team and the player himself feel obliged to try and manufacture impact.

On the long touchdown run for Derrick Henry yesterday, Adams aggressively attacked inside. Tennessee’s running back just had to bounce it outside and even if Tre Flowers’ positioning was better than it was, I’m not backing him in a 1v1 vs Henry.

When your safety is attacking the backfield, there’s always a danger something like this can happen. And you can’t help but wonder how Kam Chancellor would’ve been used there without the pressure to justify the price-tag and game-changer tag?

Chancellor never blitzed. Sadly, only in our minds can we imagine what a Chancellor vs Henry battle for contain would look like. I’m convinced he would’ve made a different decision to Adams — or wouldn’t have been given the freedom to do what Adams did.

The explanation of the Henry touchdown from both Head Coach and player was frustrating:

Isn’t it just a perfect representation of the Seahawks right now? Carroll reaching for a play from the expensive safety and revving him up too much. Only for Adams to make a bad decision, one he’s totally oblivious towards it seems, giving Tennessee an opportunity to change the game.

There will be games this season, no doubt, where Adams tries something and it comes off and we’ll have a week of media and fans alike talking about his brilliance. 100% that will happen.

Yet it’s the need to manufacture situations where if the gamble doesn’t come off, you get badly caught, that highlight the issue with Adams.

The Seahawks have invested so much in him and feel like they need to get a return on that investment. Utilising him this way in Carroll’s system (tweaked or not) is so majorly boom-or-bust.

It’s too late to do anything about it now but the Seahawks really should’ve thanked Ken Norton Jr for his efforts in January and moved on. Then they should’ve appointed someone with a background in the schemes where Adams succeeded in New York under Todd Bowles and Gregg Williams.

If you want to max out the investment here, isn’t that the best thing to do?

And Carroll should’ve been willing to take a backseat and let two new coordinators run things, while he concentrated on what he’s best at. Culture and motivating.

Quick hitting questions & notes post-Tennessee

— Why do the Seahawks’ staff so often lose the game of adjustments?

— Why do the Seahawks keep investing in tight ends only to struggle to involve them consistently in the passing game?

— How did the Seahawks not create more problems with their pass rush given the Titans O-line was in a state of total decimation?

— How did they go into an off-season knowing they had an issue at cornerback, only to emerge with Tre Flowers beginning the season as a starter? Flowers played 100% of the snaps on Sunday.

— Why are the Seahawks so average at home? They’re 21-13 at Lumen Field since 2017. That isn’t good enough.

— Why did Carroll suddenly decide to ‘teach a lesson’ to Jordyn Brooks for his late-hit penalty? Is that a thing he does now? Doesn’t he have to be consistent with that moving forward? For example, does DJ Reed need to be benched after his taunting penalty? I’m not sure why you take out a first round pick to play Cody Barton just to prove a point mid-game.

— For what it’s worth, Barton had the worst PFF grade on the team from his 11 snaps yesterday. Brooks had the second worst grade on defense — closely followed by Marquise Blair, Darrell Taylor and Tre Flowers.

— Why did Carlos Dunlap play only 30% of the defensive snaps against Tennessee? Is he really that much worse in run defense than Rasheem Green (64%) and Benson Mayowa (65%)? Given they gave up 212 rushing yards, that would suggest he isn’t. And why did Alton Robinson play fewer snaps than LJ Collier?

— Jamal Adams’ PFF grade last season was 64.2. So far this year he’s graded at 70.7 (Colts) and 63.6 (Titans). Is this just what he is in Seattle? He also blitzed nine times against Tennessee — right around the mark he was blitzing a year ago.

— Kyle Fuller had an offense-worst 36.4 grade according to PFF. How did the Seahawks end up in a situation where he’s starting at center?

— Doesn’t it already feel inevitable that this season will end in a similar fashion to the last five and we’re now just slow-dancing to the end, having the same conversations as we go along, waiting to experience the same off-season debate and drama we had last year?

— Are ownership actively looking to sell, as was reported a year ago? An update on this situation would be welcome. And if not, what exactly is the long-term plan for the franchise short of ceding power and control to Carroll and hoping for the best?

If you missed yesterday’s instant reaction live stream, check it out here:

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When you lead 24-9 at home, at half-time, and lose the game — it’s a problem.

When you play the way Seattle did in the second half, it’s a disaster.

We saw the worst of 2020 brought together in one horrible half, dumping a great big reality check on this team in the process.

The early-season 2020 wet-paper defense combined with the stuttering and stalling offense of the late season, to produce a defeat memorable for all the wrong reasons.

The Seahawks were hammered in the second half and the stats paint a depressing picture:

— Tennessee had 33 first downs compared to Seattle’s 17

— Seattle was 4/12 on third down

— The Titans recorded 532 total yards and ran for 212

— The Titans had over 20 more minutes of possession

Let’s just be honest here. The reason this game even went to overtime in the first place was down to Tennessee’s own mistakes. Horrendous blown coverages gifted the Seahawks points.

And while it wasn’t all horrible — Seattle ended the first half superbly with a fantastic late drive that hinted at real positivity — that second half is a gut-punch that exposed problems that have existed for years and a lot of people refuse to acknowledge or discuss.

You can’t blow a 24-9 lead at home. You can’t be outscored 24-6 after the second quarter.

The Titans’ coaches made adjustments at half-time and changed the game. The Seahawks staff had no response. They had no answers on offense when drive after drive became a painful toil. There was no resistance on defense.

The Seahawks have players who are capable of making individual highlight plays on defense but I don’t believe they have the difference makers to warrant attention and simply impact games with their presence.

When you need someone to step up and make a play at a vital moment at the end of that game, who’s going to do it?

Nobody could. Nobody was able to produce that moment of magic.

And why, still, is the offense so easily knocked off track with seemingly no return? Whose fault is that? The quarterback? The coordinator? Pete Carroll? The O-line? All of them?

The kicker missing an extra point, the 10 penalties (some painful and avoidable), Tre Flowers continuing to play for this team, the total inability to get the tight ends involved.

Being absolutely whipped up front, at home, again. Isn’t this supposed to be a team built to win up front?

We’ve all been here before.

This was simply more of the same.

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— From early in the summer, I’ve been saying the 2022 quarterback class is a disaster. Draft media was regularly mocking the likes of Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell as top-10 picks. I never saw it. Howell looks like a fairly standard mid-round pick with little improv or mobility and Rattler simply isn’t ready.

Week one was a classic example of Rattler’s problems. He has the tools — arm strength, escapability and the ability to throw from different angles. Some of the stuff he does is Mahomes-esque. He’s creative — moving and re-setting, launching the ball with velocity from different angles.

However, he’s so unrefined as a quarterback. People are claiming on twitter today he’s regressing. He isn’t. His problems in 2021 existed last year too.

Against Tulane he threw two picks and it should’ve been three. Rattler trusts his tools too much. He throws into coverage and doesn’t anticipate situations. He was at it again today against Nebraska. He launched a pass into triple coverage and was fortunate the pick was dropped.

He doesn’t read plays or manipulate defensive backs. If the play is called, he’s throwing it. When he scrambles, he’ll take a chance. And at the next level he’s going to be a turnover machine unless things change.

On this evidence he isn’t ready for the pro’s and needs more time in college to work on his craft. It’s hard to imagine him going any earlier than round two based on what we’re seeing.

You’ll also see Nevada’s Carson Strong being mocked in round one at the moment as draft media desperately scrambles for a golden goose. Strong isn’t good enough. His arm strength and talent is overrated. For me he looks like a day three quarterback. Malik Willis at Liberty is exciting to watch but has significant technical flaws and is probably best suited going somewhere without the pressure to start immediately.

Ole Miss’ Matt Corral benefits from a well schemed offense run by Lane Kiffin which is, to be fair, prolific and user friendly. The talk of Corral elevating into a top draft pick is painful to observe. It says a lot about draft media, to be honest. It’s so thirsty for a big name QB to promote and rally behind for 2022.

At the moment I’m not sure you can justify projecting any quarterback in round one. So what does this mean? It means a huge market for Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and any other quarterbacks available for trade in the off-season. Houston drafted a quarterback this year, Green Bay drafted one in 2020. They wisely prepared for the transition because neither team will likely find a replacement next April.

The trade market for veteran QB’s next year will be red hot.

— On top of the 2022 being light at quarterback, there’s also a real lack of legit top-tier talent. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Derek Stingley will go early. Aidan Hutchinson will go earlier than many think. Kyle Hamilton is becoming a ball-magnet and by adding turnovers to his game, could easily work his way into being a high pick. There’s not a lot to get excited about though if you follow a team destined to pick early next year.

— It’s pretty clear the NFL is desperate at cornerback, across the board. It’s becoming such a need position, it’s reminiscent of the offensive tackle crisis that dogged the league. Don’t be surprised if a whole bunch of corners stack behind Derek Stingley.

— We highlighted Kenneth Walker (RB, Michigan State) a couple of weeks ago and he had another standout performance today. Walker rushed for 172 yards on 27 carries, while adding 17 yards and a touchdown as a receiver. He’s 5-10 and 210lbs and a Wake Forest transfer. He’s a tough, physical runner who’s difficult to bring down. He’s definitely a player to keep an eye on.

— I’ve watched Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams twice this year. He’s slippery, dynamic and tough to stop when he gets going. He lacks the size Seattle looks for in a running back and he might be too small for the next level — but he’s fun to watch and a dual threat. He had 91 yards on 12 carries against Purdue, with two catches for 47 yards and a touchdown.

— Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum is very athletic, can pull with ease and progresses to the second level superbly. I suspect, however, he might last well into round two due to a lack of power at the point of contact and you can drive him backwards. Of course, if he has a Senior Bowl and combine performance like Garrett Bradbury, all bets are off. Oregon center Alex Forsyth lacks the athleticism of Linderbaum but he’s Mr. Consistency and a player to monitor.

— This is going to be a much better draft for tight ends. Jalen Wydermyer has had a quiet start at Texas A&M but has the talent. Wisconsin’s Jake Ferguson has a complete game, as does Ohio State’s Jeremy Ruckert. Iowa’s Sam Laporta is someone I want to watch more of. Today he had a career high seven catches for 65 yards and a comfortable redzone touchdown. For all of Washington’s struggles, Cade Otton has a future at the next level. He had a touchdown against Arkansas State. I’m looking forward to seeing what Greg Dulcich will do for UCLA tonight (along with running back Zach Charbonnet).

— Two pass rushers have flashed that are worth monitoring. One is Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson — lumbered on a hopeless team after transferring from Georgia. He’s playing with great effort and quickness and is making an impression at FSU. He led the team in tackles against Wake Forest, shared a sack and had a QB hurry. The other is USC’s Drake Jackson who had a wonderful sack/fumble. He’s 6-4 and 255lbs and showed great speed attacking the edge against Washington State.

— Somehow, Georgia’s massive defensive tackle Jordan Davis remains underrated. He’s 6-6 and 340lbs but he knifes through gaps like a man 50lbs lighter than he is. As you’d expect, he can stack blockers and control the interior. He’s a tremendous player who will test better than anyone expects. He helped force a safety today. He’s a freakish athlete. I’m not sure how early he’ll go but he’s a terrific pro-prospect. For me he’s a first round talent. Meanwhile, Georgia linebacker Channing Tindall looks really quick and physical. He stood out in the first half against South Carolina. At SPARQ he ran a 4.19 short shuttle and jumped a 40 inch vertical. For Georgia’s opponents, receiver Josh Vann showcased big play ability downfield plus the ability to high-point and compete for the ball. Vann scored a superb touchdown, creating great separation. He looks like the next impressive wide out to enter the league from South Carolina. Vann is definitely a player to have on your radar.

— I’m not sure Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener has the physical qualities (6-1, 195lbs) to excel at the next level but he was sensational in an upset win against UCLA — playing with an injury to lead an improbable last-gasp game-winning drive. The Bruins have been highly entertaining this season so far but using Zach Charbonnet for just six carries in this game is a major head-scratcher. He scored on a third of those carries. His two touchdowns were typically impressive — dragging defenders for yards-after-contact to get into the end zone. Tight End Greg Dulcich went without a catch or a serious look in the passing game. You’ve got to make the most of your talented players.

— I really like Arkansas safety Jalen Catalon. He led Arkansas for tackles against Georgia Southern and broke up two passes. He’s a terrific redshirt sophomore and the heartbeat of the Arkansas defense. Another defensive back to watch for is cornerback Montaric Brown. He’s 6-0 and 190lbs, plays well in run support and could be a nice project.

— He might not have the hype of his brother but Taulia Tagovailoa is a really fun player to watch at Maryland. He’s led them to a 3-0 start and he flashes a lot of talent. He finished with 32/43 passing for 350 yards and a touchdown in a close 20-17 victory over Illinois (adding 25 yards as a runner). He won’t go in the same range as Tua but he’s a player worth following this year.

— Alabama running back Brian Robinson, a senior, is one to keep an eye on. He’s 6-1 and 225lbs and will get plenty of opportunities to impress this season in the SEC. He stood out against Florida with 75 yards on 14 carries. Robinson scored twice (once as a receiver). He has talent and could be a value option in the draft.

— I watched several games this weekend. Please, ESPN, we get it. The Manning brothers are doing an alternative MNF football broadcast this season. We don’t need to be reminded literally every five minutes during college football Saturday.

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Rob & Robbie conducted a live stream earlier today looking ahead to the Titans game in week two. I also shared some early thoughts on the 2022 draft class…

You can watch the recording below:

Note:  This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the latest piece in a weekly series. Curtis looks at the Seahawks and their opponents and discusses key factors…

Week Two is easy to look forward to, with the Seahawks handling a good Colts team on Sunday and the Tennessee Titans looking decidedly average in a big loss to Arizona.

But it is best to reset expectations and consider this game a tough test, as we all did when the schedule initially came out.

The Titans played out of character last Sunday.

The NFL’s best turnover-differential team in 2020 lost that battle 3-1.

Their offensive line surrendered a career day to Chandler Jones.

Julio Jones lost his cool and took a foolish penalty to kill a drive.

It’s possible to get that version of the Titans on Sunday but the odds are that Mike Vrabel will have his team ready to play their standard brand of football when they come to town for the Seahawks’ 2021 home opener.

Let’s dig into the watch points and see how the Seahawks can advance to 2-0 this weekend…

Hold Derrick Henry under 100 yards rushing

This is job number one.

When the Titans get 100 yards from Henry, they are 21-2. When they do not, they are 6-12.

While it is always true that your chances of winning the game are vastly better when you do not give up 100 yards to any runner —  against the Titans, holding Henry under 100 yards is the single best key to success. Why?

Tennessee has built their entire offense around him. They have a formidable offensive line and a quarterback who is very effective within the limited framework of their scheme.

They love to do what the Seahawks are trying to implement with new offensive coordinator – run the bulk of their offense out of the same personnel and pre-snap look to disguise their intentions. They frequently bunch all 11 players closely together and run a variation of plays out of the same set.

Henry allows the Titans to run this simple offense very effectively. 

He has unheard of lateral agility and light feet for a player of his size.  They run a zone concept that is very similar to what the Seahawks faced against Indianapolis last week:  get the defenders moving horizontally instead of downhill and give Henry two gap options to choose from on cutbacks. He is fantastic at reading and picking the one not soon to be occupied by a tackler. 

Watch him and the offensive line shut the door on Baltimore with a master example of this concept:

The linemen have everyone shuttled toward the sideline (also kudos to Ben Jones for getting under Justin Ellis even though he’s turned 180 around), Henry has two gaps to choose from and sees that Queen, Harrison and Clark have over pursued and will shortly be helped to the ground by the linemen reaching the second level. He hops laterally and accelerates in nearly the same motion.

No Earl Thomas to stiff arm, just a free path to the end zone leaving Derek Wolfe on the ground to ponder his life choices.

Of course, that is a prime example but not what happens on every single play. Yet the threat of Henry allows them to run quick passes off play action. When Henry is established as a runner, defenders must key on him and this allows Tannehill to use play action and quickly get the ball out before pass rushers can get home.

One play the Titans love to run off the play action is an extremely simple crossing route off play action to AJ Brown. This play is a staple of their offense and Brown and Tannehill have perfected it.

Here is another example that is like watching a perfectly tuned formula one race car:

Tannehill is so quick with the play action, acquiring the target and throwing, Vince Williams realizes half a heartbeat too late that it is play action and just barely misses getting back to the throwing lane. From there, it is just Brown accelerating into the daylight.

It is all made effective by the established threat of Derrick Henry.

So how do the Seahawks combat this? 

They got a top-flight tune up in the zone-read game with the Colts last week. A lot of the things the Colts do in the run game are very similar to the Titans.

While setting the edge in the defense is always important — and this is still an area where the Seahawks need to improve — the Titans usually keep their powerful interior linemen inside and looking to get to the second level as soon as possible.

The Seahawks deployed an interesting personnel grouping against the Colts – a sort of “Bear Front Plus One” with two of Poona, Mone, and Woods on the field, accompanied by two of Mayowa, Dunlap or Green. They supplemented this with a fifth man at the edge, such as Darrell Taylor, but also used Jordyn Brooks and Alton Robinson there.

They likely will use a similar grouping concept in this game, with a primary goal of keeping Wagner, Adams, and Brooks as clean as possible to fill those gaps.

It will be a tall task but the defense will be playing with some confidence after holding Jonathan Taylor in check the week prior.

If it makes you feel any better, the Seahawks are facing Henry at the best time possible.  September is his worst month by far.  He only averages 3.88 yards per carry in September in his career, a full yard lower than his career average of 4.9 yards per carry.

The lesson: Get at Henry early in the year, early in the season, early in the game. That is your best shot.

Not unrelated to Henry’s effectiveness is our next point…

Make Ryan Tannehill go to his second read

How has Tannehill had a career resurrection in Tennessee? 

There are a lot of factors but the primary one is his strengths perfectly align with the Titans’ offensive concepts.

He is not required to regularly create plays on his feet. The Titans run the ball incredibly well and then feed their receivers with quick passes that barely require Tannehill to even make a read.

Look again at that AJ Brown crossing route above. How does Tannehill make that play so quickly?

He does not really have a read. He knows where he is going and he can rely on the play action to open the lane for him. His biggest task is to time the pass properly. So, his job is much easier than a ‘standard’ quarterback. Make no mistake though, he is not a hack.  He consistently accomplishes what he is asked to do with a high degree of competency.

Watch Minkah Fitzpatrick on that play. He takes a bad angle that probably would have been acceptable and limited Brown to an 8–10-yard gain if Tannehill does not perfectly hit Brown in stride and allow him to turn on the jets.

That is what the Titans want Tannehill to do. Take the snap and throw on the first read. And he is very, very good at it.

In the 1-10 yard zone from the line of scrimmage, Tannehill’s QB Rating is 117.53 – an astounding 31% better than the league average.

There is job two, defense. Do not have him let his first throw.

The backfield is going to have a real task on their hands. Julio Jones and AJ Brown against DJ Reed and Tre Flowers does not inspire confidence.

But consistently giving a free release is not an option if you want to keep this offense in check.  The corners have to trust that Quandre Diggs has deep coverage and can time up those crossing routes correctly.

Jamal Adams needs to have a game Sunday. Whether it is providing three or four of those free blitzes, wrestling Henry down, keeping those passing lanes behind the LOS occupied or jarring the ball loose with a tough hit, this game is tailor-made for a player with his skill set.

The Seahawks need to attack the Tennessee tackles. The Titans have not settled their right tackle spot. In fact, their depth chart to start the season listed three right tackles in the first spot. Second round pick Dillon Radunz was a healthy scratch last week and David Quessenberry did not inspire anyone with his performance against the Cardinals.

Taylor Lewan also had a very rough game at left tackle against Chandler Jones last Sunday.  Is that a sign of things to come or just a bad day at the office getting back after a tough injury? Hard to say. Duane Brown had a tough day early last year against Aldon Smith and ended up having a terrific season overall for the Seahawks. It is very possible Lewan can do the same.

But there is an opportunity there to put some pressure on Tannehill. If the edge rushers can apply some pressure and the backfield even slightly disrupts the wide receivers’ routes, the Seahawks can turn the formula one race car into a sputtering Sunday grandma driver.

Control this game with the offense

The Titans defense was awful in 2020. They had few sacks, unreliable corners and were carried by a powerful run offense that does not make a habit of turning the ball over.

One area the Titans were especially poor in? First and 10 plays.

The Titans gave up an average of 6.77 yards per play(!) — a 70% completion rate on passes, and a god-awful 76 first downs on First and 10 plays. The worst numbers in the NFL apart from the Detroit Lions.

They went about upgrading their pass rush by bringing in Bud Dupree and Denico Autry and praying that Harold Landry can start sacking the quarterback again. They also brought in new corners.

How are they doing in 2021? Well admittedly it is a one-game sample — but not good so far.

They gave up 6.16 yards per play on First and 10 to the Cardinals and allowed three first downs. In all three of those drives they scored points.

This suggests the Seahawks have a very good opportunity to run their entire playbook whenever they want in this game. Logic dictates that the Seahawks can pass on first down if they choose and that might be a great way to take control of the game.

As well, they can mix the run and pass as they like.

A game like this against a tough opponent, some coaches like to gear down and attempt to match the Titans’ offensive physicality and intensity. But it will be beneficial to put some scoreboard pressure on the Titan offense and let the Lumen crowd exercise their vocal cords a bit for the first time in a couple years. It will open chances for sacks and turnovers and take Ryan Tannehill out of his comfort zone.

Just a thought, how about Russell & DK show Tannehill & Brown how the crossing route is really done?

Anything you can do, I can do better…

The Titans will be eager to keep unleashing their new pass rushers though, so this brings us to our final watch point…

Burn the blitz

It may be easy to look at the Arizona game and judge the Titans pass rush as poor.

Kyler Murray had 289 yards passing and 4 touchdowns, was only sacked twice and had one interception in a 25 point win.

But the pass rush did a fine job. 

They recorded nine pressures and a 25.7% pressure rate on Kyler Murray. 

Murray was just better with an outstanding performance.  So, so much better. 

When blitzed, he was 5 for 6 with three first downs, two touchdowns and a 157.6 passer rating. He crazy-legged his way out of trouble and created time for his wide receivers to uncover.

Sound familiar?

Russell Wilson’s numbers the last three seasons when blitzed are sparkling:

— 38 touchdowns against nine interceptions

— 201 First downs

— A 104 passer rating

Russell Wilson eats his opponents’ lunch when under pressure.

With multiple options at the tight end and running back spots for quick passes, and a Titan secondary likely up at night after watching tape of Wilson’s twin bombs to Tyler Lockett against Indy, there should be plenty of opportunities to make them pay for having the audacity to rush the passer.

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Job done.

Given the occasional unpredictable nature of week one, not to mention the prep time afforded to coaches, getting out with a win is all that matters in your opening game.

The Seahawks handled their business with an assured display.

There were two big positives to accompany the victory.

Firstly, Russell Wilson. There’s no other place to start. This was a majestic performance and exactly the kind of showing you get when you possess a legit franchise quarterback.

The Colts have some pieces on defense and certainly the Seahawks weren’t given a comfortable ride into the 2021 season. They had a stretch of consecutive drives that went nowhere, with a Carson fumble sandwiched in the middle.

Yet Wilson was able to take the opportunities that were there. Four touchdowns, each involving a high degree of skill and accuracy.

Wilson quietly put up a four touchdown day as if it was a fairly mundane occurrence. There was a time, pre-Wilson, that we might’ve spent the rest of the season talking about such a performance.

The ability to read the defense on Tyler Lockett’s two scores and deliver the perfect pass. The velocity and placement on the D.K. Metcalf touchdown. The Gerald Everett play was perfectly schemed and executed.

This was a statement performance by Wilson, drawing a line under his struggles at the end of last year.

Seeing the quarterback in this kind of rhythm is the ultimate positive from week one.

Along with that, the edge rushers did a good job creating pressure on Carson Wentz. The Colts are banged up on the O-line and they had to take advantage. They did, clearly.

Being able to use Benson Mayowa as a rotational cog rather than a 90% snap lineman is crucial. Darrell Taylor had a splash play. Carlos Dunlap and Rasheem Green got involved. Bryan Mone flattened Wentz at one point.

It was particularly enjoyable to see Taylor so involved, given what happened to him a year ago.

I’d still like to see Geno Atkins added this week because you can never have too much up front. Yet this was a very good showing from the pass rush.

The results speak to that too — Indianapolis were only 5/13 on third down and 0/3 on fourth down. They only averaged 4.7 YPP.

They had a lot of time in possession and had their moments but it always felt like the Seahawks were in control of the game. There wasn’t a nervous moment, from the minute Lockett scored for the first time to the conclusion.

It has to be said there will be tougher challenges ahead. I think people were almost so surprised that Wentz wasn’t a disaster, especially coming off an injury, that they gave him a bit too much credit online. He looked stupefyingly average to me.

That merely served to punctuate the brilliance of Wilson.

Next week the Seahawks host Tennessee, who looked surprisingly awful against Arizona today. Whether that was merely a loosener for the Titans, who knows? But Seattle has a great opportunity to start 2-0.

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Arkansas have taken a huge step forward under coach Sam Pittman. Last year they were competitive for the first time in years. This year, they appear to have taken another big stride.

They’re well drilled, organised and they know what they are. There’s a lot to be said for selecting your identity, having clarity on it and executing a plan that makes sense. Sounds simple but often teams get muddled in their thinking and team construction.

Arkansas mask their weaknesses by punctuating their strengths. Thus, you see a team running for 333 yards against Texas, giving them an absolute hammering, combining that with a well coached defense.

They also have a lot of talent, however. It’s not just a case of being well-structured.

Nobody highlights that more than redshirt sophomore safety Jalen Catolon.

I watched the Arkansas vs Texas game on Sunday morning intentionally to watch Catolon, who I have watched from 2020 already. Although he didn’t make any major plays like last week (where he had two interceptions) — he organised the defense, made adjustments and stood out as the best player on the field.

He’s listed at 5-10 and 200lbs but he plays bigger than that. Catolon plays the run well and is very comfortable working to the LOS to help play contain off the edge or knifing through to hammer a ball-carrier. In the open-field he’s capable of bone-crunching hits and he has that fear-factor ability, lurking deep then showing off his quickness to cover ground and hammer opponents.

He’s more quick than fast — similar to Quandre Diggs in that regard — but he’s very capable of playing deep and in space. He undercuts routes well and shows good anticipation and read/react ability. The ball, at times, acts as a magnet to him. He already has five career interceptions in basically 1.2 seasons.

There shouldn’t be any concerns about him playing free safety. Watch the Florida game where he was able to stick in coverage vs Kadarius Toney, leaping and hanging in the air to break up a pass in the end zone.

He’s a good tackler — jolting and forceful.

And I come back to the way he was recognising Texas’ plays, making adjustments, communicating with team mates and making sure everyone was on the same page.

Steve Sarkisian is an overrated coach. Look at his record — 34-29 at Washington including three 7-6 seasons, then 12-6 at USC. I appreciate this record comes with the knowledge he experienced some personal struggles — but short of being able to go and organise Alabama’s cluster of elite recruits, he hasn’t shown much to date.

It was a surprise Texas gave him the keys to their gig. Or then again, it’s Texas. So maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise.

He was embarrassed by Arkansas. The 40-21 scoreline actually flattered Texas. It’ll be interesting to see how Arkansas fair in a stretch of games coming up that includes Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn in consecutive weeks.

Regardless, Catolon is a name to watch for the draft in 2022 or 2023. He has every chance to be a superb NFL safety.

Other notes from Saturday:

— I wasn’t able to watch much CFB this weekend due to work commitments on Friday and Saturday. Apologies, I will catch-up in the week. The following are statistical notes and observations.

— It’s a better tight end class for 2022 and Jalen Wydermyer is one of the better players eligible for the draft. He had four catches for 66 yards and Texas A&M escaped with a 10-7 win against Colorado. Cade Otton made three catches for 33 yards during Washington’s latest shambolic performance at Michigan.

— Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is listed at 6-4 and 220lbs. However, those numbers are deceptive if you’re expecting a hammer in the Kam Chancellor mould. Hamilton is a gliding, quicker player with great awareness and the ability to cover ground. He’s versatile and you wouldn’t rule out him being able to compete at free safety. He had two TFL’s in a narrow win against Toledo.

— The 2022 quarterback class is absolutely honking. Players need to emerge quickly if anyone is going to salvage things. This week I spent time watching Nevada’s Carson Strong and I think he’s probably worthy of a fourth or fifth round grade. Iowa State’s Brock Purdy, meanwhile, was benched after throwing three interceptions against Iowa. No wonder the Houston Texans are sticking to their guns in terms of trade compensation for Deshaun Watson.

On Sunday I will be writing my usual instant reaction piece to the Seahawks/Colts game and hosting a live stream once Robbie returns home from Lucas Oil Stadium.

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I’m running through a long list of names I’ve compiled over the summer. One player I particularly wanted to watch was Northern Iowa’s left tackle Trevor Penning.

He was highlighted by the Senior Bowl staff and this week I decided to watch some of his stuff rather than sift through the Clemson/Georgia or Alabama/Miami games again.

Penning is without doubt a name to monitor this year, all the way through to Mobile in January. It’s possible he could work into the first round conversation.

I’ve seen him listed at 6-7 and 320lbs and he certainly looks the part, with the apparent length to match.

So what does he do well?

What really stands out is the way he gets off the ball and plays with violence when engaging defenders. He doesn’t sit and wait for the block to come to him. This aggression might need to be tempered against the best speed rushers at the next level but it’s enjoyable to see a player just get after it the way he does.

Once he connects he doesn’t mess around. His initial contact is often a jolting punch that shifts a lineman off the spot and he’ll frequently knock someone out of contain in the running game. He’s a people mover. Penning appears to have extreme upper body power and the attitude to take advantage of that.

For a man his size playing at this level, he’s surprisingly mobile. He was asked to pull and connect on the run. He’s shown he can do that and had no problem locking on to targets in space. There’s clear evidence of him progressing to the second level and looking for someone to hit.

On one snap he even went as far as to run downfield and find an unsuspecting safety to dump on his backside. It was totally unnecessary and frankly, totally brilliant too.

He’s a finisher. In fact he’s one of the best finishers at tackle I’ve seen in a long time. When he connects there’s very little hand-fighting and calling it a day. Penning wants to drive you into the turf.

I’d love to know if he’s done any martial arts because the way he so often engages a block and then tosses opponents with a flick of the hips is extremely impressive.

His kick-slide is not the most fluid but then I struggled to find example where he’s flat-out beaten by speed. There were times where I thought he was a bit slow out of the traps but then he simply tracked the rush, engaged contact and finished. He handled the spin-moves well.

At times he’s maybe a little upright. There was one occasion where a defender got into his chest with a straight-arm and the initial contact knocked him off balance. However, he simply regained his footing and slapped the arm away, before ripping the pass rusher to the turf.

His ability to go really early is going to depend on how he tests athletically. Yet watching the way he takes on linebackers who come up to the LOS — just treating them with utter disdain — I would want this guy on my team. On a couple of occasions I saw a linebacker actively turn away from contact to protect himself as Penning was approaching. I’ve not seen that before.

Northern Iowa has developed a reputation for building strong, big offensive linemen from smaller athletes. Penning has set school weightlifting records. He’s listed on Bruce Feldman’s ‘freak list’ this year, with a reported 83.5 inch wingspan. He also broke the school’s squat record with two reps at 625lbs this year.

He can also do this:

Whether he plays left or right tackle or kicks inside — this is the type of player who will help you establish authority at the LOS. It’s all going to be on testing to determine whether his eventual future is in the first frame or whether he’s available later on.

Sometimes you watch a player and simply get a lot of pleasure and satisfaction seeing how good they are. Penning is the first example of that for me in 2021.

He’s one to track but it’s possible he’ll be long gone by the time the Seahawks pick next year.

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Note:  This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the first in a weekly series. In each piece we will take a look at the Seahawks and their opponents and discuss key factors.

The promise of a new season is exciting and intoxicating. Especially this year.

A new offensive coordinator.

A wide receiver in DK Metcalf who is poised to take his place with the best in the game.

A franchise quarterback that is one of the best in the NFL. 

A running back who can infuse the entire team with a tough mentality.

A Hall of Fame middle linebacker roving the field looking for targets to take down.

Those are the knowns. Then there are the unknowns.

The Seahawks have kept both their offensive and defensive concepts and personnel groupings almost completely under wraps in the preseason. What has Shane Waldron cooked up to exploit the explosive talents of his personnel?

Can Darrell Taylor be the pass rush terror the team desperately needed when they drafted him?

Can Jamal Adams turn a full offseason with the team and the security of a new contract into an explosive season that can tilt the field with regularity?

Ultimately – can the Seahawks turn a tumultuous offseason into a real run at the Super Bowl?

Add in the fact that fans are champing at the bit to get back into the stadium and see their team live and you have the makings of an incredible adventure.

Week One sees the Seahawks starting on the road in Indianapolis against the Colts. One of the AFC’s best last year, the Colts have had their own turbulent offseason with a major quarterback change and multiple injuries to key players.

But you know they are spoiling for a fight just like the Seahawks are.

How can the Seahawks start the season off 1-0 with a win on the road against a tough as nails team?  Let us look at it in this week’s Watch Points.

Here we go.

Find a way to contain the running backs

With TY Hilton out for this game and the OL and QB positions having some questions — it is obvious the game for the Colts will be won or lost on the back of their running game.

Digging a little deeper really shows why that is not a bad bet for them. 

This group is dynamic.

First up, Jonathan Taylor. The second-round pick took his place among the NFL’s top backs last season, finishing in the Top-10 in all of the traditional stats:  Attempts, Yards, Rushing First Downs and Touchdowns. 

He is very good right now and will only get better.

With his vision, speed and toughness, Taylor is a perfect fit for this Colts offensive system.

Nine of his ten longest runs last year were between the tackles. 

But make no mistake, he is not just a grinder. That 4.39 40 speed is actual football speed, not combine testing speed.

Taylor recorded the NFL’s fourth fastest speed on offense in game situations last year at 22.05 MPH. 

For reference, amateur track star DK Metcalf’s rundown of Budda Baker last year was clocked at 22.64 MPH. Taylor has some serious speed.

The Colts also utilized him in the passing game last year, with 36 balls caught for an 8.3 yards per catch average.

It is not a coincidence that when Taylor got 20 touches in the 2020 regular season, the Colts were 5-0.

The Seahawks cannot afford to let this monster shake loose.

The beauty of the Colts’ offense, however, is it does not entirely rest on Taylor. 

They have another back in Nyheim Hines that is better than your standard support back. He troubles defenses in his own right and caught 63 balls out of the backfield and added 4.3 yards per rush.

Between Taylor and Hines, they generated 129 first downs last year. 

The entire rest of the offense? 76 first down. Yes, 63% of their first downs came from those two players.

And for the third head of this beast, Indy also brought first-down machine Marlon Mack back into the fold for another season. So, we will be seeing a lot of action out of the backfield Sunday.

The Seahawks have invested heavily in speed and tackling ability at the linebacker and safety spots. They must get their money’s worth in this game in order to contain these threats.

Of course, there are the trenches between them…

Prevent the Colts’ offensive line from dictating the game

Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and they use it like a weapon. So many teams have their linemen focus on protecting and not allowing the defense to disrupt their plays. The Colts, in contrast, are aggressive with their lineman. They send them on missions to wipe out would-be tacklers. They are a coordinated, ferociously tough unit.

How good are they?

Last year, Jonathan Taylor’s 8.3 yards per catch I referenced above? He caught those passes an average of 1.9 yards of depth behind the line of scrimmage. So there is over 10 yards of room between him catching the ball and being tackled to the ground. That comes not just by Taylor’s ability but the lineman’s skill and effort in implementing the playbook to get out to the perimeter and block.

It gets even worse when you look at the running game.

Taylor led all starter-level running backs in the NFL with a sparkling 3.0 yards before contact per attempt. 

How good is that? Only seven other starting level running backs made the top-50 in that stat. Derrick Henry was a distant #2 at 2.6 yards before contact.

Think about that. Jonathan Taylor was clean 15% more yards before contact than the next best guy. 

On every single attempt.

Add that much room to roam untouched to the fact that he has game-breaking speed and you have a match made in heaven. 

Or hell if you are trying to defend that.

How do the Colts accomplish this? With an offense that is much more horizontal than vertical. They are experts at moving north to south, creating gaps for exploitable cutbacks by funnelling defenders out of running lanes and taking on linebackers in the flat.

Look at the passing grades Philip Rivers experienced for passing behind the line of scrimmage in 2020:

Those numbers passing to the perimeter of the defense behind the line of scrimmage are a far sight better than what he had ever done with the Chargers in previous seasons and it is indicative of the horizontal nature of their offense. 

With either Carson Wentz starting and coming off one of the shakiest quarterback seasons in recent NFL history, or Jacob Eason starting his first ever NFL game, there is a very high probability the Colts will give both several simpler plays of this nature to take away the burden. You can expect the offensive line to carry a bigger load than normal in this game.

The Seahawks must be ready. Defending the perimeter will be critical. Regularly setting the edge is mission critical. Whoever the Seahawks have at SAM and 5-tech must be able to hold their ground and not get pushed around. ‘Read and react’ will be an integral skill to display in this game.

Again, Jordyn Brooks, Jamal Adams and Bobby Wagner will be key players in this game.

One thing to note that could provide a spark to the Seahawk defense: say what you like about their cornerbacks but Tre Flowers and DJ Reed have no problem fighting off wide receiver blocks and getting involved in run defense. This was a real weakness for Shaquille Griffin and Quentin Dunbar. Not for these corners. With the nature of the Colts’ offense as it is, we can expect they will be tested in this area several times. A couple of key blocks or tackles by the corners to kill drives would be very impactful.

Another point in the Seahawks’ favor: The Colts’ offensive line might be banged up and a bit uncoordinated due to not getting much practice time in camp. Quentin Nelson and Ryan Kelly have missed time with injuries and the COVID list.

Eric Fisher has just come off the PUP list and might practice this week, so likely the LT start belongs to Julie’n Davenport. What do we know about him?

Well, the reason he is in the NFL is due to his size – he is 6’7” 325 with 36.5” arms.  Great measurables there.

The reason he is a journeyman player though is he doesn’t have the skill or speed to match that size. He is slow. Like Jamarco Jones slow. And neither is he a drive-blocker in the run game.

He played for Miami last year. Arguably his best game was in Week 4 against…you guessed it…your Seattle Seahawks and their early season pass rush misadventures. In 25 snaps he did not allow a pressure. But that was against Benson Mayowa, Shaquem Griffin and Damontre Moore and without any blitz support. Hardly a murderer’s row there.

If the Seahawks can carefully mix and match at the LEO/SAM position opposite Davenport, they could be very disruptive. Darrell Taylor’s speed and bend will be too much for Davenport – but with his NFL inexperience he could easily be prevented from setting the edge. All Davenport would have to do is lean that massive frame on Taylor and he is taken out of the play. A Carlos Dunlap or an Alton Robinson would fare better there in those more run-centric downs.

This is really a game where the Seahawks can employ the depth at the DL position they have collected over the summer. Effort and energy will be critical. The Colts were flagged for more holding penalties than all but four teams last year. Not many things kill drives with horizontal offenses more than pushing them back ten yards. Rotating fresh lineman at key times could provide just enough burst to draw some flags.

Another bit of good news is there is some familiarity there. The Colts’ offense is not unlike what San Francisco has run out in recent years. Move horizontally, open gaps, have the QB get the ball out quickly and let the playmakers take over.

Adjusting, maintaining positioning and gap integrity with your hands and flying to the ball are all concepts this defense is familiar with.

Can they excel at it though? They will have a tough task on Sunday.

At the very least, the defensive line needs to hold this powerful Colts line to a draw.

Get creative running the ball on offense

The Colts’ defensive front is one of the best in the NFL. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are a fantastic duo inside. With Darious Leonard creeping closer to a Bobby Wagner-level of play, it is no wonder that this defense was the second-best in the NFL against the run last season.

They will be lining up over a starting offensive line that has been shuffled around and has not gotten any preseason reps together other than a mock game. Expecting them to function like clockwork right out of the gate, and against a tough defensive front, is a very tall order.

Some creativity would go a long way in establishing some rhythm in offense by generating some easy yards on the ground. This defense is too good to just ground and pound all game and hope you break through eventually.

We have yet to see any real run concepts in preseason aside from the return of the fly sweep play with Dee Eskridge. 

Yet the Seahawks cannot just rely on Russell Wilson to carry the team. A few creative concepts to stretch the field, give them time to settle into a groove, keep the defense fresh and build a little confidence would be just what the doctor ordered.

Let Russ be Russ if it is needed

There is a lot of talk about this offense being quick tempo and utilizing the short passing game along with some newer run concepts. Actually using the tight ends to open up space and also getting the ball to Metcalf, Lockett and Eskridge in space and standing back and watching them make magic is a thrilling proposition. It is exciting to anticipate what we will get to see on the field.

A new offense with a quarterback sporting a 70% completion rate would be a sight to see.

The Seahawks will need balance though.

The Colts were the second-best team in the NFL in turnover differential last year. They likely will not give the Seahawks cheap points.

Their offensive and defensive lines will do their best to disrupt the entire game.

They run the ball well.

This team, though clearly not up to full strength, are going to present a real challenge.

This has all the makings of a close, but winnable game.

The game may come down to the talents of their best and highest paid player. Nothing hurts and frustrates a defense more than doing everything right, only to have Russell freaking Wilson break containment, extend the play with his legs and find a streaking Lockett or Metcalf for a backbreaking gain.

A new offense that has all kinds of new features and may tease some dazzling success is certainly the order of the day for this team in 2021. But at the end of the day, it may be the quarterback’s singular ability that takes this team where they want to go. If the game calls for that kind of moment, the team should be able to put Russ in a position to meet it.

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I think the Seahawks are facing a crucial season.

Personally, I’ve felt they needed change at the top for a while.

I think they need fresh ideas with a new approach.

I think they need an offensive-minded Head Coach with a vision that meshes with the franchise quarterback — who they made the focal point of the organisation when they gave him a $35m a year cotnract.

I’m concerned that the Seahawks are entering a period of ‘win or bust’ — where the bust equates to significant, franchise-changing consequences.

If this season ends up being more of the same, meaning playoff failure, it should be time to have a serious conversation about changing the Head Coach.

I know it’s a form of blasphemy in Seattle to suggest Pete Carroll’s no longer the right man for the job. Such a take is often ridiculed and laughed off.

One of the many push-back arguments is Seattle’s regular season record. They have been consistent winners since drafting Russell Wilson. For fans who grew up with putrid Seahawks teams in the 80’s and 90’s, there’s very much a ‘don’t look a gift-horse in the mouth’ vibe going on.

To me though, looking to the past to justify the future is a backwards way of viewing things. Thanks to Paul Allen, this isn’t your dad’s Seahawks any more. They’ve set new standards, reached new heights.

They’re no longer mixing with the bottom feeders of the NFL.

More importantly, however, they have something that will prevent any major regression — regardless of who is in charge at the top.

A legit franchise quarterback.

It can easily be argued that the main reason the Seahawks have had their run of winning seasons over the last few years is down to Wilson. Without him, not even Carroll would’ve been able to muster anything close to the same kind of success.

After all, it was only after adding Wilson in 2012 that the Seahawks dragged themselves out of the 7-9 mire.

Even last year, Wilson’s influence rang true. People linger on his difficult second half to the season. Yet the only reason they ever reached 12-4 was down to the quarterback.

Once his form tailed off, they finished 7-5 (including the Rams playoff loss). So basically they ended the year a smidgen above .500 — despite facing a relatively easy schedule.

They got to 12 wins purely down to their 5-0 start — where Wilson put up record numbers to prop up a defense that was on a pace to be one of the worst in NFL history.

So I’m not buying the idea that if Carroll were to depart that suddenly things would collapse. While ever Wilson is in Seattle, they have a great chance to succeed.

Furthermore, you can’t call regular season wins a marker for true success. Not for the Seahawks in their current form, anyway. And certainly not for Wilson. He isn’t going to look back on his career and bask in the glow of several winning seasons if it doesn’t come with any fresh, serious challenge for the ultimate prize.

Fans determined to be positive (which is fine) can cling to regular season wins and be proud of it. This franchise, in its current guise, needs to be judged on playoff success.

They’ve only won the NFC West twice in the last six years. In their last six playoff games, they’re 2-4 — with the victories coming against a middling Detroit team at home and against an awful Philadelphia, without their starting quarterback.

Since 2015, here’s the list of teams who haven’t played in the NFC Championship game:

Washington
New York Giants
Dallas
Detroit
Chicago
Seattle

Everyone else has been there.

To not even reach a Championship game — or really even come close — in the last six years, should be seen as a failure. Regardless of any regular season record.

Therefore I think this should be a make or break year for Pete Carroll.

If it’s more of the same in 2021, I think he should consider stepping down.

Think about what might happen if he doesn’t. Will Wilson go one step further than he did this year and actively pursue a trade?

It’s at least a possibility. He turns 33 in November. Time is of the essence for Wilson and if he doesn’t see this team making progress — and if he feels their vision and blueprint is wrong — there’s every chance he’ll seek to go somewhere else in an attempt to fulfill his lofty ambitions.

Both parties came together this year, potentially because they were forced to. Yet it feels like old wounds could reopen. The lack of any changes to Wilson’s contract are indicative of a situation that is being left open. A simple restructure to create cap space is easy to do. The Seahawks didn’t do it.

It would be a franchise-defining moment if they were forced to pick between the only elite quarterback Seattle has ever seen and a coach who will turn 70 later this month.

And I don’t bring up Carroll’s age to dismiss him. Let’s just be realistic here. If Wilson intends to play for at least another 8-12 years he will likely outlast Carroll’s coaching career. It’s a pure numbers game.

Therefore, I think it’s up to Carroll to prove that as the man at the top, he can take this team back to the NFC Championship game. That has to be the marker. Anything else should be deemed a failure and change should be considered.

Otherwise are we just going to see the same season, over and over, until we wake up one day and feel the Wilson era was a missed opportunity?

I appreciate the likelihood of change is slim, regardless of what happens this year. The Seahawks appear to be in an ownership holding pattern and it’s convenient for the incumbents to hand the football keys to Carroll and John Schneider. Going through a significant coaching change now, if they intend to sell within the next five years (as has been speculated), is undesirable.

But Carroll can also make that decision for them. I’m not sure he would. Perhaps he should, though, if it becomes clear that a ‘him or me’ situation emerges with Wilson angling for serious change.

Some fans would clearly back Carroll in this situation. However, I’ve studied the quarterbacks in college football and it’s not pretty. Replacing Wilson will be the hardest thing this franchise ever has to do.

If it comes to pass that the quarterback goes a step further than he did this year, someone is going to have to make a call. Forget about convenience or what is ideal. A decision needs to be made for the good of the franchise.

This will be Wilson’s 10th season playing for Carroll. It’s seven years since they made a run to the Super Bowl.

I am intrigued by the possibility of seeing what Wilson could achieve playing for a brilliant offensive-minded Head Coach.

Look at the recent examples where having a terrific offensive leader has helped teams get to the Super Bowl.

Kyle Shanahan guided the 49ers and Falcons to the Super Bowl. Sean McVay has been there. Andy Reid’s Chiefs have been twice. Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl with the Eagles. Bruce Arians won a Super Bowl with the Buccs.

There has been a shift in the NFL in recent times. Offensive leaders seem to be king with one glaring, Belichick-shaped exception. Rather than sit wondering forever what Wilson could achieve playing with an offensive-minded Head Coach, I’d like to see what it looks like before it’s too late.

I suspect Wilson feels that way too. That’s why his list of four trade destinations earlier this year included New Orleans (Sean Payton), Chicago (Matt Nagy), Las Vegas (Jon Gruden) and Dallas (Mike McCarthy).

That’s not exactly a subtle hint, is it? Four offensive coaches.

And let’s be right here. The Seahawks are paying Wilson $35m a year. If they intend to retain him long term, that figure is going to rise dramatically. The Seahawks would be best served structuring their football operations around their investment, making Wilson and an offensive coach the true identity and focal point.

I appreciate it’s all well and good me talking this way. I need to provide some names for alternative coaches.

Brian Daboll has transformed Josh Allen in Buffalo, turned Stefon Diggs into an even better weapon and is creative with his game-planning. He’s been around different coaches and has a lot of experience.

Joe Brady is from the Sean Payton school of coaching and has been mightily impressive in stints with LSU and the Carolina Panthers.

Eventually someone is going to seriously pursue Matt Campbell at Iowa State and Lincoln Riley will eventually, you’d imagine, want to scratch the NFL itch.

Those are the four that immediately spring to mind. It’s not a flawless list by any stretch but I do think it shows that options exist. Pairing an offensive Head Coach with an experienced defensive coordinator, who is given the keys to run things his way, feels like a good plan.

It’s not just about a need to make the most of the Wilson era or keep him on board. I think Seattle’s roster construction and use of resources has been poor for a number of years. Their scheming, game-planning, game-management, player development and winning when it matters is also up for criticism.

The stated aim in terms of playing style has increasingly failed to chime with the way they’ve built their team. They’ve struggled, in my opinion, to weigh-up the kind of balanced football Carroll prefers while paying a franchise quarterback so much — knowing he increasingly has his own aims and ambitions and preferences.

At times the way the team has been put together since the 2018 reset has appeared haphazard and confused. It’s been reactive more than planned — with too many band-aids and too many glaring weaknesses being unaddressed when seasons began.

There’s been complacency. Joe Fann challenged Carroll after the Washington game a year ago following another stalled offensive display where Seattle nearly blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead to Dwayne Haskins. It was brushed off as barely a concern. Three weeks later the season was over and those same problems that were dismissed were a big reason why.

They’ve been uncompetitive and seemingly unprepared at the start of key playoff games —- relying on Wilson to deliver heroic second half comebacks that have always been in vain.

I think you can question coaching appointments too. Not Shane Waldron, who is an unknown. But certainly prior appointments.

The buck stops with Carroll.

That’s not to ignore the clear positives he provides — including his unmatched culture, motivating skills, experience and competitive spirit.

Let’s also appreciate that Carroll will always be a Seahawks legend. A true visionary who delivered so much to Seattle and the NFL in general.

I just happen to think that the issues, right now, outweigh the positives. I think things have become stale and I think the Wilson-inspired regular season records are merely a convenient way to avoid a conversation we need to have.

I expect the Seahawks to have another winning record in the 2021 regular season. I think they’ll make the playoffs. I think they’ll probably be eliminated in the first two rounds again.

And to me, if that happens, it should be time for a change.

I can also say, with 100% confidence, that I’d like nothing more than to eat those words in a few months time.

I’ll own this article if I’m wrong. I hope I am and they at least make the NFC Championship game.

If I’m right — and it is more of the same this year — I think more people should be willing to embrace this uncomfortable discussion.

We discussed this topic among many others on our latest live stream, which you can watch below…

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