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Thoughts on Alabama vs Texas A&M

A.J. McCarron would be a good Christian Ponder replacement

Mike Evans, future Seahawk?

I’m pretty sure Pete Carroll watched this game. Probably while playing acoustic guitar on a baseball bat.

If he was watching, then he was probably drooling over Texas A&M receiver Mike Evans.

Carroll loves big receivers. This team has been searching for a reliable big man since day one. It started with the courting of Brandon Marshall, developed into the Mike Williams project, became the Kris Durham experiment and after flirting with Braylon Edwards, Stephen Williams gets his shot.

Seattle lacks a great possession target with size who can be a difference maker in the red zone. We saw in the Pro Bowl this year how attractive that kind of receiver can be for Russell Wilson (courtesy of Vincent Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald).

But it’s not just about red zone targets. Carroll likes a guy who can win jumps balls and make plays downfield.

Mike Evans put on a master class tonight.

Time after time Johnny Manziel tossed floaty passes in the general direction of Evans. And pretty much every time he jumped into the air in tight coverage and made a play. His final stat line was an eye-popping seven grabs for 279 yards.

Evans also flashed his athleticism in a 95-yard catch and run for a touchdown (although Alabama’s defensive call on that play was astonishing).

Sure hands. Great body control. High pointing the football. This was a superb performance, defining what teams are looking for in a big receiver.

I half expect Pete and John to be talking about this guy right now.

Evans is 6-5 and 225lbs with a basketball background. If he plays many more games like this he won’t be available to Seattle in the back end of round one. In three games this year he already has 518 yards and three touchdowns.

He has to be a firm focus on our Seahawks radar the rest of the way.

Quarterback talking points

Johnny Manziel is great fun. Things happen when he’s on the field.

There were times today, particularly when A&M jumped to a 14-0 lead, that you imagined him in the NFL pulling off all these magic tricks.

Unfortunately, there were also some things that made you counter that enthusiasm.

The two interceptions he threw were a portrait of his limitations. He’s essentially a gun slinging play maker without the big arm. He’s a chancer. That can be great when it comes off. But in the NFL, Mike Evans isn’t going to make you look this good nearly every time you throw a 50-50 jump ball.

The two picks were ill-advised throws into tight windows. Poor decision making first off, and he hasn’t got the arm strength to really arrow the ball into a tight window on the intermediate level. He can chuck it high downfield and throw a catchable ball. But in the NFL you have to be able to make throws over the middle into tight spots, anticipating a route and guiding your receiver. You also need to be able to throw a big downfield ball on play action (eg Russell Wilson vs New England) with perfect velocity.

I’m not convinced Manziel can do either of those things. A lot of throws have to be to open guys or it’s a 50-50 dice roll.

He’s a hell of a playmaker and I wouldn’t bet against him having some kind of NFL future. But it’ll always be feast or famine. It has to be with him. You can’t put a lid on the playmaking, so you have to accept the consequences. He’s like a gambler playing with someone else’s money. It’s both exciting and potentially infuriating.

A.J. McCarron on the other hand is a consistent, intelligent passer without much wow-factor.

I think he’s better than a lot of people give him credit for. You can see tangible physical improvements over the last two years and he has the frame to keep getting stronger. He’s in control, he’s assured. He has a terrific supporting cast but knows how to get the best out of them.

Most importantly he makes good decisions. He has a great feel for pressure and knows when to live another down. He’s not a hopeless athlete and can buy time with his legs. For the most part he’s pretty accurate and he shows good touch.

It’s just whether, like Manziel, he can fit those passes into tight windows with an average arm and launch the ball downfield on the home run throw. Again, I’m sceptical.

If Andy Dalton is worth a high second round pick, I think McCarron could be too. Put him on a team that isn’t in total rebuild mode and has at least one solid target and he can make you competitive. I think he’d be ideal for a team like Minnesota, who probably don’t want to burn another first round pick replacing flop Christian Ponder.

Give McCarron Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson — plus a decent offensive line — and he’ll get the ball out quickly to the playmakers and make you competitive. Put him on Oakland’s current roster and it’ll be messy.

But I guess that goes for most quarterbacks entering the league.

Maybe good teams get penalised?

We’ve talked a lot about how often Seattle is flagged and how much of an issue it’s been. Well, Alabama had 12 penalties for 104 yards today — much more than A&M. In the NFL, the best teams generally get penalised more too.

Is it more than a coincidence? Perhaps.

Stuff like this kind of makes me feel better about how many times the Seahawks get flagged. Although the game finished 49-42, you always felt Alabama were in control despite the penalties.

Other notes

– It was a better day today for Alabama left tackle Cyrus Kouandjio. It’s going to be another stellar year for offensive tackles in 2014.

– C.J. Mosley was barely noticeable today. Not because he had a bad game, for whatever reason the ball kind of just avoided him somehow.

– I’d hate to be an Alabama defensive back in meetings this week. Nick Saban’s hair looked angry today. And when Nick’s hair is all over the place, you’re in trouble.

– On a side note, I watched the game with my dad and at one point he questioned whether Saban wears a rug. I found that amusing.

Seahawks – Niners pep rally

Will Richard Sherman be celebrating again on Sunday?

Nothing else matters this weekend.

Not draft talk. Not college football. Not Alabama getting revenge over Texas A&M.

There’s nothing else I want to write about tonight other than Seahawks vs 49ers.

The teams are trying not to hype up the rivalry. The players are on their best behaviour (well, apart from Anthony Dixon). Everyone’s saying it’s just another game.

It isn’t.

There are many strands to the rivalry. The national media love to latch on to the Carroll and Harbaugh stuff. They focus on the similarities between the teams. They talk about the new-found power of the NFC ‘Worst’.

One thing that doesn’t get discussed enough is the fact both teams are starved of success.

Yes, the Niners fans love to boast about their five Super Bowl titles. In reality, the next Super Bowl in 2014 will be the 20th anniversary of San Francisco’s last victory.

The ‘Quest for Six’ continues as they say, but it’s probably more a quest to end two decades of under achievement and near misses.

Seattle’s desperation for success is very different. As a less traditional franchise without half a century of history, the Seahawks fans wonder when it’ll be their turn. They thought it might happen in 2006 after years of mediocrity. It wasn’t to be. Super Bowl XL, if anything, has made the situation far worse.

The Niners want to begin a new era of glory. The Seahawks want to be #1 for the first time.

And the one thing that stands in the way for both teams, more than anything else, is each other.

If the current Niners or the current Seahawks were playing in the mid 00’s NFC West, they’d waltz to home field advantage in the playoffs. And with it, they’d have a great chance to play in multiple Super Bowls.

Now they have to compete with each other, plus a blossoming Rams outfit reinvigorated by Jeff Fisher and a Cardinals team that is certainly better than most of the other bottom feeders you’ll see in the NFL this year.

If either of Seattle or San Francisco ends up as the #1 seed in the NFC, they have a great shot at making the Super Bowl.

For the other? Life becomes much harder on the road.

What drives this rivalry is not the soap opera stuff involving the coaches or players, it’s the knowledge that both teams recognise the biggest threat to their title ambitions is each other.

This weekend is an opportunity for Seattle to hold serve. To win their game at home. San Francisco will get their turn in week 14. Neither team can afford to surrender a home defeat to the other. They can’t afford to go 0-2. These could be the games where division titles, playoff bye’s and home field advantages are decided.

So what could decide it?

Run the ball
Marshawn Lynch has three of the five 100-yard rushing performances Jim Harbaugh has conceded as 49ers coach. That’s an incredible record for Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (who would be my #1 choice if I was an owner looking for a Head Coach next off season). Seattle’s run game never got going against Carolina last week but it simply has to against the Niners. Likewise, San Francisco has to be prepared to run too. In the previous 42-13 defeat they put too much pressure on Colin Kaepernick to throw his team to victory. It was a huge mistake. For me they have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They have to exploit that to win.

Get momentum early
The game in December really was a night where everything worked for the Seahawks. It was just one of those occasions where you realise fairly early that it’s going to be your day. Momentum built gradually, snowballing into an avalanche. The three and out to start followed by a quick score from Lynch. Another touchdown before the blocked punt. Before they’d even settled into a gameplan, the Niners were 21-0 down and staring defeat in the face. I suspect we’ll see a very different game on Sunday. But the Seahawks can still take advantage of the crowd and the hostile environment by starting fast. Pete Carroll always says it’s not how you start it’s how you finish. This Sunday will probably require a fast start, a solid middle and a strong finish.

Second half adjustments
I think it’s fair to expect a tight contest, edged by a handful of key plays. In the game at Candlestick last year, the Seahawks missed their opportunity to take control with some ugly drops and misfires. The 49ers trailed 6-3 after a bruising first half. And after the break, they absolutely wiped the floor of the Seahawks. Seattle failed to score again. Unfairly, too much attention was paid to Russell Wilson’s performance. In reality, San Francisco’s second half adjustments won the game. They ran all over the Hawks with some intelligent tweaks, had Alex Smith play a short passing game and they limited Seattle’s offense. If it’s close again at the half on Sunday, making key adjustments will be crucial in a close game.

Bend but don’t break
The Seahawks cannot shut down Kaepernick. He’s too good. And he’ll get more than enough protection on the night to have a productive game. If you give Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin enough time, they’ll get open — even against the ‘Legion of Boom’. I cannot believe for one second that San Francisco will ignore the run like they did last time. Seattle has a good red zone defense and contained Kaepernick in December. That has to be the key again. Make the 49ers settle for field goals and take advantage. Likewise the Seahawks have to do a better job in the red zone than they did last week.

Challenge the 49ers secondary
If you put Seattle’s secondary with San Francisco’s defensive line, you’ll have a defense for the ages. Put San Francisco’s secondary with Seattle’s defensive line and it’s a different story. Russell Wilson is going to be pressured in this game. He’s going to have to be elusive, and he’s going to have to make some difficult throws on the run. But there will be opportunities against this Niners secondary which is far from intimidating. Nnamdi Asomugha and Carlos Rogers are a rare weak link on the San Francisco roster. Exploit it.

As for having to make difficult throws on the run, I had no idea at the time how good this throw was last week. Not many quarterbacks in the NFL can make this pass. Two of them are playing at Century Link on Sunday:

Rest your voice on Saturday.

Stock up, stock down… top prospects so far

Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
Cyrus Kouandijo struggled against Virginia Tech and Jake Matthews faces the daunting task of a rematch with Alabama this weekend. Lewan had a big day against Notre Dame last week (see the tape above). He might still end up being #3 behind Kouandijo and Matthews, but there’s little doubt he’ll be a top-15 pick next April. Notre Dame’s Zack Martin is another player to keep an eye on.

Ed Reynolds (S, Stanford)
Any team looking for a playmaker in the secondary has to consider Reynolds. He had an interception in Stanford’s opener against San Jose State to go with the six he had last season (three returned for touchdowns). He might not quite be the same athlete as an Earl Thomas, but he has decent size for the position (6-2, 205lbs) and is criminally underrated within college football.

Dominique Easley (DT, Florida)
We talked about him in more detail yesterday, but it’s hard not to be impressed with his display against Miami. Whether he ends up playing as a hybrid, a three technique or an end, Easley has a terrific motor, great get-off on the snap and he makes plays. In what looks like a down year for interior lineman, Easley stands out.

Scott Crichton (DE, Oregon State)
It’s not been a great start for the Beavers in 2013, but Crichton looks back to his best after recovering from injury. He had 1.5 sacks against Hawaii and a strong junior season could mean a high draft grade. He’s 6-3 and 265lbs. Last season he had 17.5 tackles for a loss and nine sacks. He also forced a fumble, recovered two more, and blocked a kick.

Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU)
I watched the Texas game and Van Noy was all over the field. Again. Because that’s what he does. He’s not an orthodox pass rusher and some teams will look at his frame and run a mile. More fool them. Van Noy is the real deal and a true playmaker.

Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
The quarterback situation at Southern Cal is a problem. Even more of a problem is the coach Lane Kiffin — he was on borrowed time last year. But Lee can’t have any excuses for his two performances so far. He’s dropped easy catches, looked lethargic and he’s been unproductive. Instead of helping two raw quarterbacks get settled, he’s been part of the problem. He can’t afford to feel sorry for himself and lose focus.

Stephon Tuitt (DE, Notre Dame)
At times last year Tuitt really looked the part. Then the Alabama game happened and it raised a few doubts. This weekend, Tuitt again looked sloppy. Yes, he had an interception return for a touchdown. But as a pass rusher he was handled far too easily. He didn’t look like a first round pick in this game.

Stephen Morris (QB, Miami)
I’m pretty confused by the whole quarterback situation this year. Teddy Bridgewater is a lock to go early. After that, your guess is as good as mine. There’s an opportunity though for some guys to surge up draft boards. Morris isn’t one of those players. In two games so far, he hasn’t looked like a guy with a NFL future — even if Miami are 2-0 and playing well.

It’s still very early — and I’m weeks away from doing any updated mock drafts — but at this stage a premature top-15 could look something like this:

Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)
Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU)
Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA)
Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
Cyrus Kouandijo (T, Alabama)
Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
Zack Martin (T, Notre Dame)
Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson)
Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
Dominique Easley (DT, Florida)
De’Anthony Thomas (WR, Oregon)

Florida’s Dominique Easley one to watch this year

Sometimes things happen for a reason.

Yesterday I wrote the following:

Louis Nix is a stud at Notre Dame and could be a top ten pick at the all important nose tackle position. After that, the options aren’t great. Some people like Will Sutton at Arizona State but I’m not a big fan. I’ve not seen enough of LSU’s Anthony Johnson to judge but watching the Tigers last year, nobody looked as good as 2012 first rounder Michael Brockers.

Florida State’s Timmy Jernigan is the only other player (defensive tackle) currently on the radar until others emerge.

I didn’t expect a player to emerge later that same night.

Really, there’s no true emergence in this case. It’s more a case of a guy (me) who happens to write a blog about the NFL Draft finally getting around to noticing a certain prospect who deserves attention.

Because a lot of people know about Florida’s Dominique Easley already.

And it’s time he got some attention.

When I watched Easley’s performance against Miami last night, I got excited.

Excited enough to fantasise about him playing against the Niners on Sunday.

(We could probably use him)

There are a few things I want to see in a defensive tackle. Easley pretty much ticks every box.

I want to see a high motor. He has that.

I want to see evidence of a nasty streak. Evidence that a guy just lives and breathes the war that is line play. Somebody who thrives on the scrappy, dirty, horrible nature of football at its purest sense. In the trenches.

I want to see someone who has at least solid hand technique and enough speed and raw athleticism to shoot gaps to stack up splash plays.

If I’m not seeing constant swim or power moves into the backfield, I at least want to see a guard or center being consistently pushed into his quarterback.

I’ve found the guys I like the most are nearly always five star recruits. Hey, at the end of the day, this needs to be a guy with rare athleticism weighing around 300lbs. Not many 18-21 year old’s fit that criteria.

On the evidence of the Miami game from Saturday, Easley does all of these things. Now it’s a case of tracking his season to see if this is a flash in the pan or truly what the guy is offering to NFL teams.

A few months ago we looked into a series by Matt Waldman discussing the characteristics Bill Walsh looked for in a player. Pete Carroll is obviously highly influenced by Walsh, and there are several obvious Walsh characteristics within Seattle’s current roster.

Here’s what Waldman wrote about Walsh’s ‘ideal’ defensive tackle:

Ideal size: 6-2, 290

Must have the girth, strength, ballast to hold off the guard, or to step into a tackles’ block without being knocked off the line of scrimmage.

Quick, strong hands to grab and pull are critical. This is common with the great tackles. The hands, the arms, the upper body strength and then the quick feet to take advantage of a moving man, just getting him off balance.

You are looking for somebody who can move down the line of scrimmage and make a tackle, pursuing a ball-carrier. That would be lateral quickness in a short area, being able to get underway and move over and through people. If you get knocked off the line, or get knocked sideways or knocked off balance, you cannot play this position. You must be able to work your way through people, so that kind of strength is a must.

The best defensive tackles move the offensive guard back into the quarterback. (emphasis mine) They won’t have nearly as many sacks as others, but if they can move the guard back into the quarterback, then the quarterback has to avoid his own lineman as if he were a pass rusher before he throws the ball. So this is a key ability.

Easley is 6-2 and 285lbs. Watch the video above and tell me you don’t see a Walsh defensive tackle. The one thing he probably lacks is girth. He doesn’t have a large rump (no giggling) or powerful base. He looks small.

But he plays big.

He’s a senior so he’ll definitely be in the 2014 draft. He’s a former five-star recruit (like it).

Perhaps tellingly, he never had an offer from Carroll’s USC in 2009 (he did get an offer from UCLA). Easley’s originally from New York. Sharrif Floyd — originally from Philadelphia — had an offer from USC in the same year and also ended up with the Gators. This doesn’t mean Pete Carroll necessarily had no interest in Easley, but it’s food for thought.

It’s also worth noting that Seattle has been anything but orthodox at the three technique. They keep trying bigger, leaner tackles at the position. Jordan Hill was perhaps the most orthodox they’ve been so far, but even he seems to have been tagged with the ‘passing downs’ label.

Even so, I find it hard to ignore pure three technique prospects. I think the Seahawks need one. And the likes of Michael Bennett are only here on one-year deals.

So what else do I like?

He seems to have a knack of jumping the snap and getting off the line quickly. He can switch quickly from power-to-speed and has good hand use. Easley plays end as well as tackle, which is testament to his athletic quality. He’s a brawler. I cannot stress how much that matters at this position.

Most importantly he has the ability to have a major impact on games. When he wasn’t in the backfield against Miami, he was being held. Like Vic Beasley, I’m not going to come out and say this guy is a nailed on first rounder. I don’t know what round he’ll go in. At this stage we’re merely identifying which players to monitor over the next few weeks.

Beasley and Florida need to be on your schedule.

Timmy Jernigan is a hard one to work out

Last year was a good year for defensive tackles in round one.

Sheldon Richardson (#13 overall) is a future star. When the Jets inevitably move on from Rex Ryan next year and switch to the 4-3, he’ll be dynamic as hell.

Star Lotulelei (#14 overall) had to be checked for suspected heart problems at the combine. Although he was cleared, there’s a chance the stigma carried him into the teens in April. We witnessed on Sunday how disruptive he can be. What a steal for the Panthers.

Sharrif Floyd (#23 overall) was a trendy pick to go in the top five. Short arms plus a lack of pure production and nasty streak led to a fall. Yet he had enough athletic upside to warrant a pick in the 20’s.

Two other pass rushing interior lineman followed quickly — Sly Williams and Kawann Short. You don’t get many drafts with five defensive tackles going in the top-45.

And we almost certainly won’t see it in 2014.

It’s early, but already it’s looking like an miserly group of defensive tackles next year.

Louis Nix is a stud at Notre Dame and could be a top ten pick at the all important nose tackle position. After that, the options aren’t great. Some people like Will Sutton at Arizona State but I’m not a big fan. I’ve not seen enough of LSU’s Anthony Johnson to judge but watching the Tigers last year, nobody looked as good as 2012 first rounder Michael Brockers.

Florida State’s Timmy Jernigan is the only other player currently on the radar until others emerge. And Jernigan is one of the more frustrating players you’ll see this year.

(EDIT — ironically, after writing this piece, I watched tape of one of the best DT performances I’ve seen in a long time… from a name not listed here. More tomorrow).

At 6-2 and 294lbs he looks the part. He’s clearly an athlete. He flashes the occasional pass rush move that makes you sit up and take notice. Yet his overall effort just seems lethargic. He’s not a relentless, beastly tackle like Sheldon Richardson. He lacks the unique physical qualities of Star Lotulelei. He doesn’t have the production of a Kawann Short.

Jernigan’s a player who shows you a bit of leg then runs a mile when you offer to buy a drink.

We’ve seen it before with FSU linemen. It’s hard to explain why. In recent years we’ve seen a handful of players who flatter to deceive.

It’s only four years ago that Carolina gifted San Francisco a first round pick to get back into round two to select Everette Brown. In a 23-sack career with the Seminoles, Brown looked the part as an exciting edge rusher. He used to split out wide and rush from all angles. He did a great job, winning on athleticism rather than effort or technique.

At one point he was considered a possible top-15 pick. At the combine he measured just under 6-2 instead of Florida State’s listed 6-4, and the doubters grew. He ran a 4.65 at 256lbs.

The Panthers were looking for a long term replacement for Julius Peppers, who was demanding a trade and seemed destined to leave when his contract expired. Carolina bought what Everette Brown was selling and made a deal.

In return the Niners got Mike Iupati and went on to build the best offensive line in football.

Jernigan kind of reminds me of Brown. They both flirt with brilliance. The athletic potential is there. But the little things that make a complete player are lacking.

Brown’s athletic qualities didn’t stand out as much in the NFL. His technique was poor, he took such wide angles in college that he rarely had to engage a tackle or beat him with hand placement. Where was the relentless motor? He had just two years in Carolina before bouncing around the league. He recently had a camp with Philadelphia, but was released on cut-day.

I’m not saying Jernigan will have a similar career, but every time I see him I notice similar traits. Quality athletic potential, but a lack of technique, motor and consistency.

His play is largely unimpressive. He gets pushed around, he doesn’t show a nasty streak. He’s not consistently causing problems for an offensive line. One thing the Seahawks will look for in a tackle is the ability to push the blocker into the pocket, even if they don’t shoot a hole themselves. Jernigan doesn’t do that. He’s really powderpuff at times.

I almost switched off the video above after a few minutes. It was the same old Timmy Jernigan display.

Then at 4:26 he makes a play. He gets away from the center and stops the running back down for a loss.

I keep watching.

At 5:10 he gets off a block and sees a route to the quarterback. He turns on the jets big time and flies into the QB. It’s the kind of pursuit you don’t often see from a guy that size. Big sack. Impressive play.

And you want to start believing again.

Jernigan has the athletic potential to be very effective. If he can find an edge — a nasty streak — and just be a complete pain in the ass when he’s not flashing genuine athletic quality, then he has a shot.

However, at the moment he coasts along games waiting for his chance. And that’s not good enough. Until this improves, I just can’t get excited about seeing him in Seattle. But the potential is there. Which is why he’s a difficult guy to project.

Clemson’s Vic Beasley should be on our radar

I’m not sure whether the Seahawks will be looking for another LEO in next years draft. After all, Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin will be under contract. O’Brien Schofield looks like an able fill-in and Benson Mayowa is getting an opportunity to make it in the NFL.

If they are looking for another LEO, Clemson’s Vic Beasley could be the guy.

It’s difficult to project his stock at this stage. On the plus side, he has 10 sacks in his last nine starts. He launches out of the blocks with the kind of burst Bruce Irvin flashed at West Virginia. He’s quick, and speed matters in this offense. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a super-fast 40 and clocked a sweet 10-yard split.

Beasley’s also undersized. He’s listed at 6-3 and 225lbs but is undoubtedly bigger than that in my opinion. I’d say 235lbs approximately. Which is still smaller than ideal, but it’s better than 225lbs. He’s got the length Seattle looks for at 6-3 but could really do with adding weight before the combine and then proving he hasn’t lost the speed.

Here’s what I like — despite the fact he’s smaller than the average edge rusher, he has good hand use. On more than a few occasions he was able to get a push on the left tackle and drive him into the pocket. Sometimes that’s enough, it forces a quarterback to move around. Combine that with a couple (I reckon 2.5) big sacks off the edge and it was an impressive display overall against Georgia.

However, at the next level is he going to get his hands into a guys chest and get a push?

Not at 225-235lbs. And that’s the issue.

Speed kills in the pass rush, but so does a running game that can consistently target one side of the line. Beasley has liability versus the run written all over him in the NFL. That limits his stock. I can see him working as a specialist or depth pass rusher, but to be an early down guy he has to get bigger and keep the speed.

It’d be pretty easy for me to say he’s a round whatever pick right now. Sometimes you just can’t tell. But he’s a player I’ll keep monitoring this year. Clemson’s schedule is beyond vanilla the rest of the way. They host Florida State on October 19th and that’s their only real test until South Carolina on November 30th — their final game before a likely ACC Championship berth.

Check out the tape above and let me know what you think.

Instant reaction: Seahawks win opener on the road

There’s an old cliche in English football.

“Good teams know how to win ugly”.

I’m not sure how often it’s used across the Atlantic, but it fits tonight.

This wasn’t a classic Seahawks performance. The running game never got going. The defense didn’t pressure Cam Newton enough. There were costly penalties and missed tackles.

And the end product is a big fat W.

In other words, we’ll take it.

Do not underestimate how difficult it was to win this game. Carolina — particularly Cam Newton and the defense — played well. It was a 10am start on the road. It was an out of division opponent at the opposite end of America.

This is the kind of game Seattle usually loses.

Not any more, it seems.

I had some issues with the game plan early on. Seattle’s first play was a five yard run by Marshawn Lynch, followed by two long developing pass plays (both incomplete, one nearly a turnover). On the subsequent drives, Wilson seemed to be throwing a lot. And when I say throwing, I actually mean running for his life.

Establishing the run early seemed to be a solid plan, even if it meant risking an early 3rd and long. Eventually they did turn to the run, but it couldn’t find any momentum. The first half ended well (before the fumble by Wilson) but overall it was a frustrating start.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course, but I would’ve liked to see some early run calls leading to play action. It could’ve taken some of the sting out of the pass rush and set the tone. Instead Carolina tee’d off on Seattle’s offensive line and did a good job stuffing the middle when the Seahawks did hand the ball off.

But hey, we’re all great play callers sat on a sofa watching the game. And I’m not one for criticising Darrell Bevell or the offensive staff. I think Bevell is a superb coordinator who receives a lot of undeserved criticism. It was probably a consensus game plan anyway, led by Pete Carroll.

When it clicked Seattle’s passing game looked crisp and explosive. Doug Baldwin was a sensation. His catch on the far sideline from a Wilson ‘hit and hope’ was a genuine momentum changer. He seemed to make numerous third down conversions. This was undoubtedly his finest hour as a Seahawk.

The other receivers chipped in too. Jermaine Kearse made the game winning catch, while Golden Tate and Sidney Rice both contributed. It was a shame not see more of Stephen Williams — the Seahawks tried very little downfield. His one opportunity was a drop, although Wilson slightly overthrew on the pass despite clear separation.

I wasn’t a big fan of the short stuff they tried to force. They did this a bit last year with Golden Tate, but I suspect this is a Percy wrinkle. But Percy isn’t here, yet. So do we need it?

Luke Willson was a non-factor and made a rookie gaffe for a penalty early on. They need him to grow — and learn — quickly.

Last year Seattle fielded the #1 scoring defense and today they conceded just seven points.

Somehow.

After all, Cam Newton was calm and composed and made some plays. The Panthers running game wasn’t as terrible as it has been recently. And bad penalties (eg Michael Bennett) could’ve been costly.

There was no consistent pass rush, just occasional splash plays (a feature of this defense). The linebacker play wasn’t quite as sharp as we’ve come to expect. Richard Sherman dropped a relatively easy interception and Steve Smith didn’t have the nightmare he witnessed against Seattle last season.

And yet somehow, Carolina had just seven points to show for their efforts.

I put it down to the mental toughness of the Seahawks core group on defense. They created a couple of big turnovers and just stayed in there. They kept believing. That’s not to say the lack of pass rush won’t come back to bite down the line, but for now this unit should be credited. Let’s not forget, they were minus Clemons, Browner, Avril and Irvin.

There were a few things that bothered me…

– 109 yards on 9 penalties. This is a major problem.

– Why no Christine Michael? Robert Turbin might be better as a catcher and blocker, but when he had the ball today he just lacked any kind of spark. Michael is all spark. Let’s use him.

– The big issue last year (interior pass rush) is still a big issue. There’s zero improvement on this evidence. And if this area doesn’t improve, Seattle has to get this sorted. If you want the kind of consistent pressure Carolina showed today, you need an inside rush. I spent the entire half time break dreaming of Star Lotulelei in navy blue.

– Seattle’s pass rush depends on role players. I don’t mind that, but can’t help but feel a more conventional four man front might create more consistent pressure with orthodox edge rushers and a decent interior tackle. I’m watching St. Louis right now, and it’s how they roll.

Other NFL week one notes:

— Christian Ponder today vs Detroit: four turnovers. Yuck. And Matt Cassell is the alternative. Double yuck. The Vikings should look for a quarterback next off-season.

— What a rough start for Gus Bradley. The Jaguars did a decent job starting the long rebuild this off-season, but they’re three or four years of good drafting away from contention. Lets hope Bradley gets the time.

— The Pittsburgh Steelers look like a mess. I gave too much credit to Brandon Weeden. The Bengals aren’t as good as everyone thinks (well, A.J. green is) and Baltimore were blown away by Peyton. The AFC North doesn’t look quite so intimidating these days.

— Anyone else genuinely disappointed for Buffalo and E.J. Manuel?

— Tyrann Mathieu might be the most Seahawky player not playing for the Seahawks. His turnover on Jared Cook was pure Seattle.

CFB Week 2 storylines, NFL kick off predictions

Florida @ Miami
Loucheiz Purifoy (CB, Florida) makes his debut after serving a suspension last week. He divides opinion among the draft community, but very few teams threw at him last year. He’s not a huge Seattle-type corner, but he’s an athlete who can stick. Stephen Morris (QB, Miami) will be trying to avoid Purifoy, but should have a long day against the Gators defense anyway. Some have touted Morris as a possible early pick in 2014. I think there’s next to no chance of that happening. He makes too many basic errors. If I’m going to be proven wrong, let’s see it against Florida.

Oregon @ Virginia
The Ducks got their pre-season game out of the way last week, but this won’t be much of a challenge either. I want to see Colt Lyerla (TE, Oregon) used more often. Despite his obvious physical talent, if he’s going to crack the first round he needs to show basic pass-catching qualities and production. Very few tight ends go in round one these days. Lyerla needs the chance to shine. I’m still trying to work out how De’Anthony Thomas (WR, Oregon) fits into the NFL. Now that he’s eligible, it’s time to really focus on his game. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB, Oregon) is another one to watch. And hey, Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon) is eligible too, so why not?

South Carolina @ Georgia
Get ready for endless shots of Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina), constant commentary on every little thing he does and the wreaking stench of over-analysis. If he gets tired again, expect a whole heap of criticism. Clowney’s best football will come in the NFL. It’s inevitable he’ll have an impact here. I wouldn’t want to be Aaron Murray (QB, Georgia), who showed against Clemson he has a very limited NFL future (weak arm, no supreme accuracy to compensate). Damian Swann (CB, Georgia) also had a rough outing against the Tigers and purely for the sake of my ego, hopefully he rebounds after I built him up.

Texas @ BYU
I’m intrigued by this game. Mostly because yet again Texas appears set for a season of flattering to deceive. They do that so well these days. But it’s also a chance to get a first 2013 glimpse of Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU). He just finds ways to impact a game and I want to compare his athleticism and speed to the athletes playing for the Longhorns. I’ll take a first look at Cody Hoffman (WR, BYU) tomorrow if he’s healthy. It’s also a chance to check on Jackson Jeffcoat (DE, Texas) — a player who kind of defines Texas football in recent years. Amazing upside, but so often disappoints.

Notre Dame @ Michigan
There’s a cluster of talent on defense to watch, such as Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame) and Stephon Tuitt (DE, Notre Dame). Zack Martin (T, Notre Dame) is also being tipped as a potential first round pick. I want to see how Devin Gardner (QB, Michigan) gets on against a good defense. He looked quite sharp against Central Michigan last week. But is he a capable passer, or is he just another athlete playing quarterback for the Wolverines? My main focus will be Nix, who looks every bit a future NFL nose tackle who can clog up the middle and make plays.

NFL predictions ahead of kick off weekend…

Team that will do better than expected… Cleveland Browns
Cleveland actually has a fair amount of talent, and now they have an excellent coaching staff. Rob Chudzinski was an inspired choice and the fact he added Norv Turner and Ray Horton as coordinators is almost unfair. Brandon Weeden isn’t elite, but he suites Turner’s offensive scheme perfectly. Horton will create pressure. They still need another draft or two to max out their potential, but it wouldn’t surprise me if in a year or so we’re faced with the bizarre prospect of Cleveland and Cincinnati being the two dominant teams in the AFC North.

Team who will struggle more than people expect… Arizona Cardinals
Bruce Arians is a media darling for everything that happened in Indianapolis last year. And that’s fair enough. But let’s not forget two things. 1. He has his quarterbacks throw a ton, perhaps too much. 2. His quarterbacks get hit way too much. In Arizona, he has an ageing Carson Palmer to work with. An ageing Carson Palmer who is going to be destroyed unless Arians pulls off a miracle with that offensive line. The loss of Ray Horton as defensive coordinator will also be felt. And they also play in the toughest division in football. This’ll be a long year.

Break out player
Randall Cobb (WR, Green Bay) — Aaron Rodgers has lost Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, while Jordy Nelson can’t stay healthy. Cobb could become Rodgers’ go-to receiver this season and a star to boot.

Break wind player
Christian Ponder (QB, Minnesota) — He should’ve never been a first round pick, he regularly throws less than 100 yards in a game and consistently holds his team back. The Vikings are an average quarterback away from being a force. It’s just a shame their quarterback is way below average.

Random prediction
Oakland to go 0-16

Brandon Coleman underwhelming in week one

I’m a big fan of Brandon Coleman. Not many 6-6 receivers run with his fluidity and he’s flashed a playmaking quality to break off big runs after the catch.

Having said that, his nine catch, 94 yard and two touchdown performance against Fresno State might be one of the least impressive nine catch, 94 yard and two touchdown performances I’ve seen in a while.

Coleman will be blighted by bad quarterback play at Rutgers. With the greatest respect, Gary Nova is incredibly limited as a passer. Yet there are also instances where Coleman lets down his quarterback. And it’s those instances that’ll hold back his draft stock, no matter how much upside he has.

A good example of Nova’s limitations come at 1:05 in the video above. Coleman pulls off a superb double move on the cornerback, creating separation down the far sideline and opening up a potential big play. Nova throws the ball out of bounds. It was an easy 30-40 yard gain wasted.

On a simple underneath route at 2:06, Nova throws a pass I could’ve completed at the knees of Coleman. You could argue that maybe he should still make this catch and complete an easy first down. But look at the pass. It’s simple. Nova turned a routine completion into a chore. He followed it up with a rotten fade attempt, again to Coleman.

Then at 2:38 it’s almost like the frustrated receiver decides to have some revenge. Nova, for once, throws pretty much on the money downfield on a play action. Coleman has separation. You think it’s going to be a huge gain — possibly a touchdown. And the ball goes straight through his hands. At no point does Coleman locate the ball in the air. It’s ugly. He’s waving his arms around, he knows it’s coming. And before he sees the football it’s bouncing off the turf. You have to make that catch. You just have to.

There’s perhaps an uglier play at 5:27. He’s wide open. It’s in his basket. And he drops it. In fact this play is worse than the jugglers arms earlier. A key first down wasted after good work from the quarterback to keep the play alive. Coleman has to make that catch if he wants to be a first round pick.

He makes up for it at 3:42 with his first touchdown — Coleman does well to get open here and Nova hits him for a simple score. His second touchdown at the end of the game shows good positioning and body control to shield the corner away from the football.

There are other positive highlights — his first reception of the night, the play at 1:27 coming back to the receiver and the difficult grab at 5:13.

But the game ends with a pretty tepid attempt to catch a winning two point conversion. It’s not a great throw from Nova, but it’s catchable. He’s under a lot of pressure, he could get drilled. Yet the game is on the line here. Make the difficult grab, be the hero and have everyone talking about you this week. Instead he fails and it’s a bad defeat for Rutgers at Fresno State in week one.

Coleman is still a tremendous talent with limitless upside but despite the stat line this isn’t a great start. We’ve seen with Stephen Williams this pre-season what a big bodied receiver can do. Make tough downfield grabs, use height to your advantage and snatch the ball away. You can throw it up there and feel confident your guy wins the 50-50. Coleman isn’t doing that and he is making basic errors. Time is on his side, but he needs to improve as the season progresses to max out his potential.

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