Michael Lombardi has some interesting draft thoughts available via NFL.com, but they’re preempted by a warning. “As the NFL draft draws closer next week, understand that this is when we will begin hearing about teams wanting to trade up or down, or targeting a certain player or position. To which I say: Believe none of it.”

Lombardi also discusses why Ryan Mallett may be an option for Washington at #10.

I’m representing the Seahawks in a community mock for NE Patriots Draft. Take a look at the picks so far.

I also recently took part in another Q&A with Dan Kelly at Field Gulls.

Brandon Adams makes the case for the Seahawks drafting Ryan Mallett and perhaps even trading up to grab him.

Peter King has been touting in his MMQB column that Seahawks GM Jon Schneider is desperate to trade down. That maybe so – he admitted as much himself yesterday. In truth it means absolutely nothing – it could be a calculated ruse to throw teams off the scent of their actual intentions.

Evan Silva has an updated mock draft with the Seahawks taking Corey Liuget of Illinois.

Danny O’Neil makes the same pick for the Seahawks in NFL.com’s beat writers mock. I’m not convinced Liuget will make it to #25.

Blaine Gabbert takes his turn to meet Jon Gruden:

Considering where those 4 teams are drafting, he's being either very optimistic or very pessimistic.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

As you might have guessed, Ryan Mallett was a man among boys as a kid and a heavily recruited quarterback coming out of high school.  This is why people were talking about Mallett a year and a half ago when he’d barely even played yet, and his on field performances had yet to be that impressive.  After a breakout 2010 campaign, you’d think that Mallett would be poised to be a top 10 pick, but rumors about being a “big man on campus” type as well as allegations of drug use have dogged Mallett through much of this offseason.  Many draft experts have written Mallett off, including Todd McShay who didn’t even include Mallett in his recent top 32 list.  You have to wonder though, how could teams overlook such a promising season by talking about Mallett so little?  Is it real, or is it a smokescreen?

In what is probably the most controversial quarterback class in recent memory, Mallett stands atop the heap in terms of dividing opinion.  Doug Farrar, who’s work I respect tremendously, has all but offered his soul to the devil in exchange for Seattle avoiding Mallett- comparing him to both Dan McGwire and Derek Anderson.  On the other side of the spectrum, our own Rob Staton has publicly pleaded that Seattle spend significant draft capital and trade UP to secure the Arkansas quarterback.

As always, I encourage our readership to form its own opinions and not simply take what we say as gospel.  We’re just ordinary fans exactly like you, and all we can offer is our own opinion.  If you are so inclined, you can scout Ryan Mallett for yourself by following this link, which provides full broadcasts of several SEC games.

I scouted Mallett for 4 games:  Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and UTEP.  All of those games were from 2010, but I don’t really feel like I need to see 2009 games to be honest.  Mallett has developed so much that it makes his first season borderline irrelevant.

Strengths:

• Big, tall, tough, durable (only one notable injury, a concussion)
• Ridiculously strong arm/upper body
• Excellent short accuracy and completion rate, above average deep accuracy
• Deep passes get downfield in a hurry, his deep throws have the same low trajectory that most QBs have on 15 yard passes
• Student of the game/Coach on the field
• Almost always checks multiple reads
• Good, consistent release point with impressive arm speed
• Decent pocket awareness
• Comfortable in the pocket
• Quick decision maker, doesn’t hold the ball or take coverage sacks very often
• Makes decisions that are mostly good
• Almost always finds a target- very few throwaways
• Good performances against very highly ranked opponents
• Excellent overall production in an elite conference
• Good under pressure if he stays in the pocket, can sidestep and keeps his eyes downfield
• Very competitive, for better or worse has a few “Favre moments” every game
• Just isn’t hit very much, figures to stay healthy
• Makes a good effort selling play action
• Makes big plays with impressive regularity
• Pro-style offense
• Has probably the best chance of any quarterback to be good right away

Weaknesses:

• Rumors of drug use and generally less than chivalrous behavior off the field
• Might be too tall.  The history of 6’7″ quarterbacks is brutal
• Very nonathletic due to his size
• Long strider who not only conspicuously lacks speed and explosiveness, but it even fouls up his mechanics sometimes
• Attempts some throws that Mike Holmgren would crucify him for
• Big, awkward windup- very similar in appearance to that of Eli Manning.  Could lead to many sack-fumbles
• Struggles outside the pocket, clueless about setting his feet when rolling left
• Almost never ran bootlegs
• A very awkward fit for Pete Carroll’s offense
• Throws more picks going deep than you’d like
• Benefited from good protection, an outstanding running game, and a solid defense
• Some lateral accuracy issues on deep passes, too often he’ll throw behind a receiver when going deep

Conclusion:

In every game I watched, Ryan Mallett was clearly the best and most critical player on a very good football team, with only RB Knile Davis coming even close to making an argument.  There were moments in 2010 where the lowly Washington Huskies were able overcome a shaky start by Jake Locker to taste victory, but that didn’t happen in any of the games I saw when scouting Mallett.  Arkansas is a good enough team to win with its running game and defense, but they wouldn’t have competed with the likes of Alabama, LSU, and Auburn without Mallett.  Even when Mallett’s backup came in for the 2nd half against Auburn and performed well on paper, you could just sense “that’s the game” the moment Mallett left.  Mallett scares the bejesus out of teams with his deep threat, and can score in a hurry.  It only took him 3 plays to score against Georgia at the start and only 2 plays to score against #1 Alabama to open the game.  That’s the kind of offensive firepower Mallett brings to the table, and it hints at MVP level potential in the NFL.

Let me show you what I’m talking about.  The first game I put on was against LSU.  You can find the game from the link above if you’d like.  Mallett sealed that game on a long TD pass on 4th and 3 that would make Jeremy Bates proud (117 min mark).  As halftime neared and LSU held the ball, I skipped ahead to the 3rd quarter and suddenly Arkansas had 1 more touchdown than they had with seconds left in the 2nd quarter.  Puzzled, I backtracked to the final 3 seconds of the 2nd quarter and witnessed this:

LSU almost ran out the clock before halftime, but had to punt the ball back to Arkansas with a meager 3 seconds remaining.  How many college coaches even try a pass at their own 20 yard line with 3 seconds left before halftime?  How many quarterbacks would make such an attempt even worth trying?

Of course, it wouldn’t have been a touchdown if not for the two defensive backs colliding, but it also probably wouldn’t have been a touchdown if not for perfect placement allowing the ball to be caught in stride.  Mallett does occasionally throw behind his receivers when going deep, but more often than not, his ball placement was exceptionally good.

As far as the negatives go, I have three main concerns with Mallett:

The first is how his lack of mobility and effectiveness outside the pocket could impact his fit in Seattle.  If the team decides to invest in Mallett, then its pretty much time to find a new offense.  When rolling left, Mallett has to completely stop, twist his body back, and set his feet very awkwardly before passing.  The whole thing looks like a solitary version of Twister.  Unsurprisingly, the throws he makes when doing that are horrible and dangerous.  Seattle’s current offense requires a quarterback to be a threat to scramble for extra yards and first downs, and that is something Mallett can only do in rare circumstances, because he doesn’t get very far.  You don’t want to see Mallett taking off on 3rd and 8.  Also, when Mallett leaves the pocket he loses… well.. the pocket, meaning that he’s fair game for any free defender that wants to chase him down, and Mallett’s speed won’t buy you as much time outside the pocket as we’ve been accustomed to even from an aging quarterback like Hasselbeck.  For Mallett to succeed, he needs to stay in the pocket as much as possible.

On a side-tangent, Mallett has a clunky long stride to his movement that sometimes interferes with his mechanics.  As mentioned before, it really shows itself when rolling left, but it can happen any time he’s throwing on the move.  The game sealing interception against Alabama wasn’t a poor decision- Mallett was trying to throw the ball away.  But because he was on the move and off balance, he didn’t set his feet correctly, and the ball didn’t leave with as much force as he’d like, allowing the Alabama defender to snag the interception right at the sideline.

The second concern is Mallett’s inconsistent deep accuracy.  This one is forgivable, as you don’t really expect quarterbacks to nail every deep pass as the farther you throw a ball, the more difficult it is to be pin-point accurate.  Mallett was mostly accurate going deep, and he’s outstanding at judging distance, almost never overthrowing or coming up short.  But in terms of lateral judgment, sometimes he’s off, and this frequently resulted in picks from the games I saw.  Its not a fatal flaw or anything, it just shows that Mallett is human and a deep passing attack carries risk.  I think like Eli Manning and Jay Cutler, Mallett will run higher than average interception numbers as part of the trade off for good overall production.

The 3rd concern I have for Mallett is some occasional lapses in decision making.  He only throws the ball away rarely, which while commendable, also leads him to forcing 2-3 throws a game he really shouldn’t.  Some of which he pays for, and some he gets lucky.  Still, they are throws that veteran quarterbacks not named Brett Favre avoid and for good reason.  This problem is coachable, and hopefully Mallett can learn that sometimes taking a sack or throwing the ball away a couple extra times a game isn’t so bad.

I guess a 4th concern for Mallett would be the character issues, but I simply haven’t heard anything yet that is concrete enough to judge Mallett on.  No failed drug tests.  No criminal record.  No solid evidence of almost anything.  Do I personally think Mallett did drugs in the past?  Given the way he’s handled it, probably, but it does appear to be something in his past and I think he’s handled this offseason wisely in regards to addressing that issue.  For anybody who says “but he’s the face of the franchise!”, I simply stop and point to Michael Vick.

Regarding mobility, Mallett isn’t a statue in the pocket and can avoid pressure within reason.  He is vulnerable to the blitz however, as you might have expected due to his lack of speed.  Thankfully, Mallett has a good ability to make quick decisions under reasonably comfortable circumstances.  He diagnoses coverage very quickly and with Peyton Manning like efficiency tends to get the ball out in 3 seconds or less most of the time.   He doesn’t hold the ball long and even when pressured usually has a plan for where he wants the ball to go.

Mechanically speaking, it would be nice to see Mallett put more of his legs and body into his throws.  I’m pretty sure Mallett could throw 60 yards on his knees, but that doesn’t mean he should do it on every pass.

Finally, it should be noted that while Jake Locker played in a pro-style offense, Mallett ran a pro-style offense, and that’s a very significant distinction especially for a team that is hoping for a quarterback to contribute as soon as possible.

NFL comparison: Kurt Warner

While Mallett falls far short of Warner in the living like Ned Flanders department, both are quarterbacks with limited mobility, great on the field intelligence, great deep balls, and an ability to pass for over 300 yards with regularity.  Warner of course won multiple MVP awards, and Mallett has that same potential if he pans out.  Of course, Kurt Warner himself wasn’t exactly a first round pick, and it remains to be seen how NFL franchises will weigh Mallett’s strengths against his faults.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

I just finished scouting my 3rd game (out of 4) for Mallett, and I’ve already got a ton of notes.  I’m hoping to have it done and posted by tonight.  As I found last year from my work scouting Russell Okung, watching tape for one player will often help you inadvertently learn a lot about other players as well.  In order to keep my Mallett scouting report on topic, I’d like to put my random comments on some other players I saw here, before I talk about Mallett himself.

• I’m sure some of you won’t like reading this, but if Seattle shocked us all by drafting Mark Ingram at #25, I wouldn’t feel the slightest bit upset or really even that surprised.  Ingram’s acceleration is deceptive but excellent, and his vision/instincts are on par with Shaun Alexander’s, which is saying a lot.   And like Shaun, Ingram’s field speed is faster than it looks.  Everyone would say Shaun wasn’t a burner and then he’d torch a team for an 80 yard scamper.  Alexander and Ingram posted nearly identical 40 times coming out of college.   I like Lynch, but he’s regularly one of the worst RB in the league at yards before contact, and since Seattle’s line is in complete shambles right now outside of Okung and possibly Spencer should he return, there really isn’t a lot of reason to expect Lynch to not repeat his awful 2010 regular season performance, which was one of the worst in the league per DVOA.  Not because Lynch sucks, but because he’s a guy that needs good blocking to gain momentum and do what he does best, run over defenders.  Drafting one very very good running back with better elusiveness would be a faster route to fixing the run game than acquiring 3-4 new lineman, and as such, it makes a great value pick like Ingram surprisingly sensible.

• I don’t know why, but Greg McElroy kind of reminds me of a less mobile Jeff Garcia.  Similar size/build, similar moxie.  Depending on who you ask though, that’s not really saying much.  Garcia had an up and down career and was generally under-valued even when he was very good.

• I think I’d rather take Drake Nevis at #57 than Liuget at #25.  I’m not a particularly huge fan of either, but Nevis is pretty close to Liuget in my eyes and is a far better value late in the 2nd.

• If Cam Newton learns how to properly use and set his feet in the pocket, he will fully justify being picked #1 overall.  Newton isn’t polished, but he’s only been in division football for just one year.  Its hard not to bank on Newton improving, and if he does, he will someday become one of the most feared players in the NFL.

• Trevor Vittatoe probably won’t be drafted, but I think he’s worth a look as an undrafted free agent.  While he’s nowhere near the physical specimen of Locker or Kaepernick, he’s got the same mobility QB skillset, and unlike those guys, he actually is well trained at checking multiple reads.  His upside isn’t that great, but he has a high floor relative to his draft stock and  I think he could be a better backup than Charlie Whitehurst.  If Vittatoe adds another 10-15 lbs, he would compare very closely to David Garrard.

• Arkansas has a heck of a running game, and that is thanks mostly to a great system implemented by Bobby Petrino.  It makes me wonder if RB Knile Davis is just a product of the system or not, because in every game I watched, he was sensational.

I had one opportunity to watch Louisville in 2010, during their bowl game against Southern Miss. One player stood out for both teams, quarterback Austin Davis for the Golden Eagles and cornerback Johnny Patrick for the Cardinals. Let’s look at the tape, courtesy of Aaron Aloysius:

Patrick had five interceptions as a senior, one touchdown and a sack. He’s obviously not a great size/speed combo or the kind of player you are going to consider early on. He ran a 4.52 and a 4.46 at the combine and he’s listed at 5-11 and 188lbs, which isn’t anything special. However, it’s the ball skills that make him stand out. He’s always around the ball, appears to take good angles and the instincts are there. The five interceptions back that perception up and teams will always be interested in guys who can play the ball.

There are some concerns. It’s believed work rate hasn’t been considered a strong point until his senior year when the light appeared to switch on. Other reports suggest that mistakes get to his head and lead to further errors. Looking at the tape his sprinting speed and change of direction don’t always match and there is some stiffness in the hips.

When he’s at his best, he looks like a second round pick. Other aspects could make him a candidate for Seattle in rounds four or five.

Face of a franchise?

Pete Carroll and John Schneider say they aren’t locked into a position this year like they were with the left tackles in 2010. That’s just common sense really, given that the Seahawks are picking 25th overall and not 6th. It’s easier to target a specific position or player when you know that only five will be off the board before your choice. Then again, would you admit to the world if you were planning a big splash? 

In his end of season press conference, Carroll contradicted himself slightly. Initially he said improving both lines was crucial during the off season and through the draft, yet at the end he also said re-signing Matt Hasselbeck was the priority. That hasn’t happened, obviously, so does quarterback automatically become the biggest need? Personally I’ve always felt it was by far the biggest need because Hasselbeck will be 36 this September – almost certainly making him the oldest starting quarterback in the league. The team can look at stopgaps and hope solutions appear once a CBA is finally agreed (or the injunction forces free agency) but it’s high time this team invested in a quarterback for the long haul. 

I have no idea what the Seahawks are planning for April 28th. I suspect if they are leaning towards one position – such as the quarterback – they could be aggressive in acquiring the guy they want. I don’t think any of the top four quarterbacks will make it past the middle of round one, so I’d at least look to see how far up the board I could get using the team’s second round pick (#57 overall). When all is said and done, one second round pick to try and secure the quarterback position long term is small change. Yes the team has major needs across the board, but you need to be aggressive sometimes – particularly with quarterbacks. 

It doesn’t always have to be a big move either. Tampa Bay moved up two spots in 2009 – from #19 to #17 – in order to guarantee they’d draft Josh Freeman. It only cost the Buccs a 6th round pick, which in hindsight was an absolute bargain. Teams will take a chance moving down, so it makes sense to see what is out there. Let me ask you this… if the Buccs had spent a second round pick instead to get further up the board and draft Freeman, would you say that was a bad move now? 

That’s not to say any of the 2011 quarterbacks will have the impact Freeman has had in Tampa Bay and obviously if you don’t believe in Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett (the two quarterbacks I believe the team could logically target via trade) it’s not a move you’re considering at all. If you do look at these guys and see franchise quarterback potential – I would argue you should do what it takes to get them. The Seahawks can’t fully rebuild until they have their long term quarterback on the roster. Build to their strengths, limit the weaknesses. This is the time to make the investment, don’t set out a scheme today with the new offensive coordinator which may need to be modified in 12 months time. 

How easy is it to trade up these days? Let me refer you to my recent article on the subject. 

We can also look at last year’s draft – the best starting point for considering big trades up the board. San Diego went from #28 all the way up to #12, trading with the Dolphins. The deal included Miami receiving a second round pick (#40). The two teams also swapped fourth round picks (to the benefit of San Diego) and the Chargers also received a sixth round selection. 

Obviously Seattle’s second round pick is 17-picks lower than the one San Diego traded to Miami, but then the Chargers also received compensation in later round stock for sacrificing the #40. 

The very next pick, Philadelphia traded #24 to Denver for the #13 selection. It cost the Eagles two third round picks (#70 and #87) worth approximately 415 points according to NFL Draft 101’s updated trade value chart. The chart says Philly over paid slightly, but Seattle’s #57 pick is worth around 350 points. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that teams in the 10-16 range will be willing to move down to acquire another second round pick. 

I know a lot people do not rate Locker and Mallett as highly as me (I have Mallett ranked very highly on my big board). I’m not the only one who believes Ryan Mallett can have a Philip Rivers-style impact on the league and manage an offense similar to the one we see in San Diego. ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted this today: 

Phil Simms with Tim Ryan and Pat Kirwan on QB Ryan Mallett: “If he’s not a top 10 player (in this draft), then I quit.”

NFL Films guru Greg Cosell also chipped in on the debate: 

Studied more Mallet. Best NFL skill set in draft. Physical pocket presence. Delivered in muddied pocket. Willing to make stick throws. Know nothing about off-field. On film, possesses more NFL traits than Gabbert or Newton, plus NFL pass concepts in college. Mallet pocket mobility a concern. But after 400 snaps saw a number of plays in which he moved, re-set and delivered accurately.

Like I said, I know people will disagree completely with the suggestion of moving up and the guys I’m touting as the motive. If I can trade up and take a shot on Ryan Mallett based purely on the tape, I’m doing it. We hear all about the character problems, yet nobody has ever gone into details and shown hard evidence. I’ve never met the guy, I can’t judge him. Maybe my opinion changes after several meetings, work outs and dinner’s? Watching the tape I’m seeing the physical tools, the pro-concepts, the ability to diagnose a defense, progress through his reads and be accurate enough to make the big arm effective. He’s not flawless, I know every argument that is critical of his game. Even so, if I can secure Mallett using the #25 and the #57 I’m doing it. 

For people wondering about scheme – I say adapt it. Mimic Norv Turner’s offense in San Diego. Task Tom Cable to create a clean pocket – why else do you make the big splash on an offensive line coach? Of course you need players too, so go get a Gallery or a Joseph to play guard, consider re-signing Chris Spencer and find the way to upgrade the right tackle position without needing to spend the top picks (it is possible, believe it or not). Kansas City turned their offensive line from a major negative into a great positive in a short space of time, it isn’t impossible if you have the right plan. 

Is this realistic? I have my doubts, not only because you’ll need to find a willing trade partner – but I also remain unconvinced Pete Carroll and John Schneider feel the way I do about Mallett. That’s just a hunch. 

When EA Sports were looking for a Seahawks star to put in the cover competition for Madden 12, they chose the fans. Such is the dearth of playmakers and star quality on the Seahawks roster. That can change very quickly with the right investment at quarterback – just ask Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Baltimore. Sure they all have better supporting casts than the Seahawks right now (borderline re: St.Louis) but they were all bad enough at one point to draft a quarterback early. Tampa Bay are the exception, but they were 3-13 before Freeman took over as the full-time starter. Atlanta and Baltimore had four and five wins respectively before drafting Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008. St. Louis were a one-win team. 

To win in this league, you need a quarterback. If the Seahawks see a franchise quarterback available in round one, they need to be pro-active. 

***Note*** 

I’d like to draw attention to some design changes for the blog which will be in place shortly after the draft. I’m going to incorporate a new ‘home page’ which will largely be used to highlight articles that have moved off the front page and are not time sensitive. It’s also a chance to incorporate an on-going poll and some YouTube tape. It’ll also mean modifications to the menu bar. Obviously this will mean needing to click a link to get to the actual blog, so I want your feedback on that. You can see a teaser for the new look by clicking here. 

I also want to test the water for perhaps running a live chat programme on the blog during the first two days of the draft. Is this something you’d be interested in?

Quite the contrast

Posted by Kip Earlywine

There have been so many rumors about Seattle and the quarterback position.  There’s been enough rumors on Palmer and Kolb alone to outpace the circus we put up with for Brandon Marshall last year.

I won’t lie, its a little hard to make sense of it all sometimes.  So when things seem the most confusing, its probably best just to revert to the basic facts.   Matthew Hasselbeck and John Schneider were miles apart in their final negotiation, so Hasselbeck has probably taken his last snap in a Seahawks uniform.  Charlie Whitehurst only played in emergency circumstances last year and did not earn a starting job for 2011.  He’s a free agent (and 30 years old) in 2012.  As such, Seattle needs a quarterback, and has by no means even attempted to hide this fact.  Every coach wants to “win now”, but this is especially true for Carroll.  This, coupled with Seattle’s low draft capital, makes the thought of pursuing Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer a very logical notion.

And yet, even on the heels of some very encouraging rumors I’ve heard on the trade-for-a-veteran front, its hard to see Seattle not drafting a quarterback in 2011.  Even if Seattle acquired a trustworthy veteran like Carson Palmer, they’d still need another quarterback in another 4 years at the latest.  You could draft a “project” quarterback with high potential hoping he’d be ready in 2014 or 2015, similar to when Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre still playing with gas left in the tank.  Teams usually carry 3 quarterbacks, and there isn’t a single guy currently on the roster who I’d say is “likely” to still be here this time next year.

The draft isn’t very far away, but I thought I’d take a long look at the potential options.  Unfortunately, there is less video available this year compared to last, at least not without finding a new IP and pirating from a torrent site; something I’d really prefer to avoid.  However, there is a nice supply of freely available video on the quarterback class, so I feel pretty confident in giving quality evaluations in at least that area.

Here is my draft board, as of today, for the 2011 quarterback class.  Locker is the only QB I’ve already scouted, so don’t take this list too seriously, if anything its just where I’m starting from in this evaluation process:

#1:  Blaine Gabbert: Gabbert is the only quarterback in the entire draft to get a passing grade for all of the following: accuracy, ability to read a defense, mobility, character, “makes all the throws” arm, and mechanics.  He’s not a Matt Ryan “perfect prospect”, but he’s got what it takes in the areas that correlate to NFL stardom the most.  My only real concern, other than the 1 year wonder label,  is his lack of success on deep throws- so he might be more ideal in a short passing offense.  Grade:  Top 10 pick.

#2:  Cam Newton: Newton is a one of a kind prospect.  The closest comparisons would be Vick/Young, but Newton is bigger/less agile than Vick and figures to be a better passer than Young.  I’ve even read one comparison that called Newton (paraphrasing) “Big Ben with wheels.”  Newton has an obvious “diva” personality, but he wouldn’t be the first diva quarterback to experience NFL stardom.  Newton has some relatively small mechanical issues to work out and he needs to learn a pro style offense.  Boom or bust prospect with literally unheard of upside.  Grade:  Top 10 pick.

#3:  Ryan Mallett: I try to be upfront about my biases, and evaluating Mallett has really challenged my greatest bias with quarterbacks: mobility.  I love mobile quarterbacks, probably more than I should.  Its often forgotten that Mallett was only in his 2nd season of football with Petrino at Arkansas, and yet playing in the toughest division in college football, amassed some very good numbers and had some terrific performances.  Its not like his 5.37 speed prevented him from doing it either.  Mallett’s often talked about arm (which is one of the best arms of the last several years) is actually less important that his intelligence and accuracy on the field.  Mallett has the makings of a big time pocket passer and its hard for me to put him behind Newton.  Grade:  Top 15 pick.

#4:  Jake Locker: I’ve seen all but 2 of Jake Locker’s games since he signed with the University of Washington, so he’s the one guy I could write a book on right now.  I think the 2nd round grade he’s often given is fair, and I think both his potential and risk are over-stated.  To me he’s not a boom or bust prospect, but more of a safe bet with a modest ceiling.  His accuracy is far better than his completion rate shows (thanks to a ton of drops, mediocre pass pro and college football’s toughest schedule), and there is potential for improvement with his pass location if he continues to improve his footwork in the pocket.  The reason I see Locker as being closer to the “good version” of Jake Plummer rather than John Elway is because of the simple fact that Jake Locker is a “mechanical” quarterback who follows orders and executes plays but isn’t fluid or instinctive like the greats of the league always are.  In a very controlled atmosphere, like what Mike Shanahan runs, Locker could be a good quarterback with flashes of greatness, but probably not a great quarterback overall.  Still, a quality, dependable quarterback is a good value in the early 2nd round, and worth the price at #25.   Grade:  Late 1st/early 2nd.

#5:  Colin Kaepernick: An excellent athlete with potential that probably exceeds Locker’s despite being less gifted physically.    Kaepernick’s pocket presence is special and I can’t help but be reminded of Josh Freeman watching Kaepernick dodge bullets in there and buy extra time to make plays.  Kaepernick didn’t face great competition and didn’t play in a pro-style system.  He has mechanical issues that must be improved or fixed.  He has an elongated and funky throwing motion which is somewhat made up for by some very impressive arm speed (he was a star pitcher in high school).  However, on shorter passes Kaepernick slows his arm down a lot to add touch, and this results in a fatally slow overall release time.  So improvement is not optional here- he has to either learn how to throw short passes faster without losing accuracy or learn proper mechanics- and either one will take time.  Still, I really like Kaepernick as a long term “project” and he’d make a lot of sense backing up a veteran like Carson Palmer or whoever.  I’d gladly take him at #57 should he last that long.  Grade:  2nd round.

#6:  Christian Ponder: There is quite a lot to say about this young man, so it will be hard to condense it into a single paragraph.  First, the positive stuff.  Ponder had a good season statistically in 2009, and this time last year was thought to be a future 1st round prospect.  Ponder has a warm, funny, charming and friendly persona much like Matt Hasselbeck- so he’s the perfect type of guy to be a face of the franchise in that respect.  Ponder has decent accuracy, at least on paper.  But there are some very big reasons I’m not a fan of Ponder despite these positives.  First and foremost is Ponder’s tendency to lock onto receivers and telegraph plays- something we saw a lot of with Charlie Whitehurst last year and we know how that’s going for him.  I’m struggling to think of a single prolific quarterback who overcame this tendency.  From this alone, I’d scratch Ponder off my board until the later rounds.  But Ponder also has arm issues.  He’s had several arm injuries/surgeries in recent months and he was floating deep balls even before that.  This isn’t a perfect analogy, but Ponder is a lot like old Matt Hasselbeck if old Matt Hasselbeck locked onto receivers like Charlie Whitehurst does.  In a pure west coast system where deep throws are rarely made, Ponder could make sense in the mid rounds for a coach who believes that with time he can beat the concept of multiple reads into Ponder’s thick skull.  Ponder has recieved a lot of hype lately and according to some he has a shot to be a 1st rounder despite his actual talent.  Grade:  5th rounder.

#7:  Andy Dalton: On tape, Dalton looks like this year’s Graham Harrell- a great college quarterback who is just that and nothing more.  Still, I like taking chances on guys like these ultra late in the draft, as rarely they become Tony Romos and Matt Hasselbecks.  I still need to take a deeper look into this guy, but I think anyone who says Dalton is a first two rounds player is overlooking too much.  Grade:  6th rounder.

#8:  Ricky Stanzi: Stanzi is a hero in the eyes of the 26/27/60 rule, as were many hopelessly under-talented quarterbacks in previous years.  I’d be worried if my GM drafted quarterbacks based on things like games started and wonderlic scores.  That said, I think Stanzi is a very good investment in the late rounds if Seattle wants to go the late round route at quarterback while trading for a veteran starter later.  Stanzi is strikingly similar to Matt Hasselbeck circa 1997, but with a better arm.  Both have great intangibles and leadership, and a camera friendly persona (as well as similar political leanings).  Both are 6’4″.  Stanzi is 223 lbs; Hasselbeck 225.  Both had solid mobility despite NFL average speed.  Even the way Stanzi throws the football looks pretty similar.  And most similar of all (and this is why both will be late rounders), Stanzi like Hasselbeck has way too many brainfarts on the field.  Inconsistency and bouts of poor decision making is a big problem for Stanzi.  This is no knock on Hasselbeck, but would he have been a pro-bowl quarterback without Mike Holmgren’s guidance?  I really doubt it.  Similarly, I think it would probably take a quarterback guru on par with Holmgren to get similar results with Stanzi.  Grade:  6th rounder.

#9:  Mitch Mustain: Mustain was one of the most highly pursued quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  He initially played for Arkansas when Houston Nutt coached there, and after a flawed yet promising start in which Mustain put up mediocre stats but won all 8 games he played in, he transferred to USC to play for Pete Carroll.  Mustain wasn’t able to beat out top 5 pick Mark Sanchez nor likely future top 5 pick Matt Barkley for a job, but that shouldn’t be held against him.  Until very recently, USC was college football’s most talent rich team every year, placing capable NFL talents on the bench, as Matt Cassel can attest.  This isn’t to say that Mustain will be a repeat of Matt Cassel, but its not like the things that once made Mustain a top prospect have changed.  The biggest knock on Mustain is the unknown, but its a late round pick with relatively outstanding upside- and the head coach of the Seahawks would know better than anyone else if he’s a gamble worth taking.

Over the next several days, I’ll release full scouting reports for Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker, followed by less thorough player previews for Kaepernick, Ponder, Dalton, and Stanzi.  I’m going to avoid writing about Newton and Gabbert for now, because I think the odds of Seattle drafting either is exceedingly low, but if it happens, I’ll do a report as soon as I’m done partying like its 1999.  For the rest, be sure to stay tuned!