Another week, another prospect at #25.

To see the latest projection click here or select ‘mock draft’ from the title bar.

Regular visitors to the blog will know how I treat these mocks – they’re a means to represent possibilities rather than seriously project what is going to happen on April 28th. Even in March so much can change, especially if a new CBA can be agreed this week and free agency does take place before the draft. Of course, that remains an almighty ‘if’.

Part of the mystery at #25 is also down to the fact we’re still relatively green when it comes to this new Seahawks front office. Tim Ruskell became very predictable during draft season because he had such a refined and specific idea of the prospects he wanted to select. We’re not even close to understanding Pete Carroll and John Schneider in the same way.

I made a huge error in judgement trying to mock the Seahawks last time they owned the #25 pick in 2008. I projected Miami defensive lineman Calais Campbell to Seattle, thinking he was a bit of a rough diamond the Seahawks could nurture. In reality he was a poor choice. He fell from a possible top-15 position due to inconsistent effort/production and having never played up to his potential as a senior. Ruskell drafted a defensive end – Lawrence Jackson – who made the most of what he had and over achieved at USC. It all seems obvious now.

I wonder in my latest mock if I’m making the same mistake, albeit with less understanding of the Carroll/Schneider blue print. The pick at #25 this week is Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas).

We’ve talked a lot about Mallett on this blog but this is the first time I’ve had him going to Seattle in a mock. I’ve been more positive than most about his off season but please don’t mistake this for anything other than perspective. Every issue that has been raised about Mallett is legitimate – whether it’s the character concerns, the lack of mobility or the footwork that will need repairing at the next level.

My main desire for perspective was down to a slight feeling of injustice for the guy. Not enough attention has been paid to the positives, because Mallett did make significant improvements during 2010. He isn’t a lost cause and there’s definitely a talented football player in that 6-7 frame. Faultess? Absolutely not. A write off? No way.

John Schneider was one of just two GM’s present at the Arkansas pro-day to watch Mallett throw. Does it mean anything? Not necessarily. It could just be due diligence, he may even be concentrating on another Arkansas player. Equally you can’t write off his presence at the same time. Maybe there is interest there? He didn’t attend the Auburn event (or the Cam Newton show) which took place on the same day.

Neither Schneider or Carroll appeared to attempt too many smoke screens before last year’s draft. Carroll gave interviews at Sam Bradford’s pro-day and it was common knowledge that the pair went bowling with Russell Okung after a trip to Texas (Earl Thomas). Neither travelled to Jimmy Clausen’s pro-day, but Jeremy Bates and Jedd Fisch conducted a three-hour work out with the Notre Dame quarterback immediately after the event.

Maybe it’s worth considering how early Seattle picked (#6 & #14) and the fact they had two first round choices. They possibly didn’t feel the need to play any mind games, having an idea how the first few picks would fall and who would likely be available. That luxury doesn’t exist in the late first round. Again – this is all just supposition.

Really it’s impossible to take too much out of this either way, but I wanted to represent the possibility in this mock. So why do I think it could be a mistake on my behalf a la Calais Campbell in 2008?

Pete Carroll has preached an ‘all-in’ mentality and an incurable enthusiasm for ‘the programme’. Does Mallett fit into that and more specifically, does Carroll effectively make him the face of his latest NFL excursion? I am not convinced the Seahawks Head Coach is willing to tie his success or failure in the NFL to Ryan Mallett.

Secondly, this doesn’t appear to be a great scheme fit. Carroll spoke about having mobility at the quarterback position in his end of season press conference. The team traded for Charlie Whitehurst – a mobile quarterback. JP Losman is no slouch and Nate Davis has plus-athleticism. These are all guys this regime has added to the team at various stages.

Mallett has a big arm – something else seemingly courted – but he has a real mobility issue emphasised by a 5.37 forty yard dash which was actually slower than a shirtless Andre Smith. Indeed Mallett’s main problems as a pro-prospect come down to poor footwork and inability to deal with pressure.

I’m not even convinced how much this team wants to make the big splash on a quarterback in round one. It’s something we’re going to learn over the next few years. I’m not suggesting they’d rule it out completely – whether considering an Andrew Luck early on or another Aaron Rodgers who falls into the 20’s. They might, however, choose other ways of finding a productive quarterback.

I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe players like Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer may be more tempting to Carroll. I don’t necessarily agree with such moves – I think Kolb is over rated and Palmer can’t be considered anything more than a stop-gap – but it would not surprise me at all if the Seahawks traded the #25 pick for either in preference of spending draft capital on Ryan Mallett. We’ll see what happens.

Either way I suspect the team will be pro-active in trying to secure the long term future at quarterback and even if the solution is an extension for Matt Hasselbeck, I think we’ll see some kind of addition during the off season either for competition or long term planning.

So I’m willing to admit this may be a poor selection at #25 but it’s also something I want to bring to the table. You can after all change an offensive game plan. It’s assumed Darrell Bevell will bring a more ‘west coast’ or Holmgren flavor to the offense, but I don’t agree with that. He’s worked much longer with Brad Childress and Andy Reid who both utilised down field threats, big armed quarterbacks and mobility. Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick aren’t Holmgren style QB’s yet that’s a system Bevell has been associated with. Minnesota drafted Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb and used a system more equated to Philly than Holmy.

But perhaps most crucially, they adapted when an ageing and much less mobile Brett Favre joined the team in 2009. You can make the point that ‘it’s Favre’, but they still adapted. There’s no reason why Seattle’s offense – which I still think will fit the desires of Pete Carroll rather than Bevell – cannot similarly adapt.

***NOTE***

Some people have complained that it’s not possible to comment directly on the mock draft page. Due to weekly updates, comments would quickly become out dated which is why I start these ‘discussion’ threads alongside every projection. I have added a link to this thread at the top of the mock draft page to make things easier.

Seahawks GM John Schneider attended the Arkansas pro-day, preusmably to watch Ryan Mallett.

Bucky Brooks was also at the Arkansas pro-day for the NFL Network. Brooks says Mallett had a ‘phenomenal’ work out throwing the ball, which isn’t really a surprise. A 5.37 forty yard dash equally wasn’t that surprising, but it was maybe worse than some were expecting (a shirtless Andre Smith ran in the 5.2’s). It’s important to remember though, Tom Brady also ran a +5.2 forty.

Mike Mayock was at the Auburn pro-day to watch Cam Newton and leaves us with this thought, “You either buy in or you don’t.” Mayock has both Newton and Gabbert going as top-ten picks, although I suspect his own personal grades may be slightly different (particularly on Newton, he seems quite high on Gabbert).

Mayock and the NFL Network team also have a report on Nick Fairley’s performance at the Tigers’ pro-day. Nice red outfit, Nick.

Michael Lombardi has an updated mock draft. It’s only a top ten projection, but there’s some very logical picks particularly in the top-six.

Matthew Fairburn at Mocking the Draft passes on a scout’s not-so-positive view of Texas A&M’s Von Miller. I have to say, I’m a little surprised Von Miller’s stock appears to be so entrenched in the top-10. I still see him strictly as a project 4-3 OLB but understand why some 3-4 teams would entertain drafting him as a pass rusher. I think it’d be a gamble to take him in the top ten.

Brandon Adams has a great piece at 17 Power that breaks down New England’s recent draft history. Many people think the Patriots ‘trade down’ policy has worked wonders over the last few years, but Adams shows why that may be a misconception.

Walter Cherepinsky offers an updated mock draft. The Seahawks take Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith with the #25 pick.

Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have another podcast available courtesy of ESPN. Kiper says he’d be comfortable drafting Ryan Mallett at #25 and suggests he’d be the most talented second round quarterback he’d ever scouted if he slips out of the top-32.

Kiper also updates his mock draft with the Seahawks taking Jake Locker with the 25th overall pick. After publishing his first mock, he touted sources suggesting the Seattle brain trust preferred Mallett over Locker. In this scenario, the Seahawks take the Washington QB with Mallett still on the board.

Patrick Peterson speaks to ESPN about the combine and next April’s draft:

The Christian Ponder hype machine has gone into overdrive.

This is a prospect who watched his stock sink during the 2010 season. A collection of high profile errors, a meltdown performance in Oklahoma and a series of injury problems saw a potential first or second round pick dropping down the board.

So why, over a month before the draft, is the Florida State quarterback suddenly a hot topic?

Wes Bunting at the NFP ranks Ponder as the #1 quarterback in this class. I cannot agree with that assessment. Even with all the criticisms surrounding Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett and even Jake Locker there is still a clear gulf in quality between that quartet and the rest of this QB class.

Bunting often likes to think outside of the box and he should be applauded for that. However, he had eventual 6th round pick Jonathan Dwyer as his top running back last year and I probably disagree with his grading of Ponder even more than I disagreed with his judgement on the 2010 running back’s.

ESPN’s John Clayton says the Seahawks should draft Ponder before Jake Locker and has been talking up the possibility of the former Seminole going #25 overall.

Evan Silva has Ponder going 16th overall to Jacksonville in his updated mock draft.

Rob Rang at NFL Draft Scout suggests Ponder could be among five quarterbacks selected in round one. He previously had Ponder as high as a top-15 pick in an early mock draft during the 2010 college season, but dropped him out of the first round by the end of the year. Rang says team’s left the combine impressed with the quarterback but stresses the importance of the results of his medical exam.

Ignore every other issue with Ponder (and there are many) and let’s just focus on the injury concerns for a moment. He’s had three surgeries in the last 15 months (two to his elbow and one to his shoulder). This is a guy that never had the strongest throwing arm anyway and now you put multiple surgeries into the mix? That alone should set off alarm bells in war rooms across the NFL.

People may want to use the example of Sam Bradford, who suffered what should’ve been a season-ending shoulder injury during Oklahoma’s 2009 season opener. He tried to return against Texas a few weeks later and didn’t last until half-time. Season over.

He was still drafted first overall and had no injury issues during his rookie season. Even so, Bradford added substantial muscle to his frame during his time out and went from skinny to pro-QB in the space of a few months. There’s no doubt that the extra weight has increased Bradford’s durability so far and he’s shown no side effects on the field. 

Ponder’s frame is maxed out (6-3, 227lbs) and he won’t be able to add bulk to improve his durability. Despite suffering persistent injuries he was still able to make eleven meaningful contributions during the 2010 season. The results? He threw for more than 200 yards just three times, decreased his completion percentage by around 7% and saw his YPA drop from 8.23 to 6.84. He tried to do more with his legs and ended up being sacked 23 times and after a vanilla four-touchdown performance at home to Samford, threw just 16 touchdowns compared to eight picks.

Florida State still made the ACC Championship game, but without Ponder in the line-up E.J. Manuel led the Seminoles to victories over Clemson and South Carolina (Chick-fil-A Bowl) and only a narrow shoot-out defeat to Virginia Tech.

You could say this is all well and good – if he is now fully recovered from injuries is it a false concern?

This brings me to perhaps the most over hyped part of Ponder’s game. Time and time again you’ll hear about Ponder’s intelligence. Listen to any of his interviews and you’ll soon notice that he’s an articulate, clever individual. It’s a common misconception that this actually translates onto the field, because it does not. He makes bad decisions. He’s not accurate.

When you’re grading a quarterback in round one, if they haven’t got extreme physical talent they at least need to be able to keep the chains moving and be at least above average for accuracy. There is no evidence that Ponder’s football IQ compensates for a weak arm and the injuries.

Throw on the tape during Florida State’s car crash 47-17 defeat at Oklahoma (Ponder: 11/28, 113 yards, 0 TD’s, 2 INT’s) and tell me that’s a first round decision maker. Move on to the Boston College game, where Ponder barely warranted a grade at all. How about the North Carolina State encounter, when having put the team in position to win with a late fourth quarter drive – Ponder’s fumble costs FSU the game.

Here’s what I wrote after the victory over BC:

“Physically he’s left wanting and his decision making isn’t great either. Against BC he consistently failed to put velocity on any of his throws – short, medium or long range. A lofted deep ball down the right against single coverage? Floats it up for grabs. He hasn’t got a big arm so that’s understandable to an extent, if not what you necessarily want to see. But if you haven’t got the physical tools to be a difference maker then you have to be accurate and make good decisions. You simply cannot – like Ponder did today – toss little floaty slants over and over again that are just begging to be intercepted. It was bad enough after Ponder’s second interception – a careless short slant with the CB well placed to make the pick. He never learnt from that mistake and just kept throwing it out there with a definite ‘come and get me’ plea to any watching defensive back. A second pick was inevitable – it happened eventually, this time for a touchdown.

“There are fundemental errors when Ponder throws his short slant. One – he doesn’t get it out of his hands with anywhere near enough juice. It needs to be a quick snap to the receiver, not a loose floated delivery two yards in front of the LOS because it will nearly always lead to the play being broken up or at worst – an interception return. Secondly – he needs to make a better judgement of the coverage and try to understand when to call off that throw and look for another target. A number of times he’d take a three step drop and without even looking elsewhere fire to his hot read. The result? His second interception and numerous other busted plays.

“The ball not only doesn’t come out with enough velocity, it’s often a loose spiral too. The case in point – an easy throw down the right to one of his receivers who had done a good job settling in between two defensive backs. The throw comes out wobbling all over the place and forces the WR to bobble the ball as he catches it. His initial step is in the field of play, but because it’s such a difficult pass to grab he ends up juggling it and a solid first down in the red zone is a third down back near the 40. He also forces a lot of throws -as emphasised by the third pick, always sticking to one receiver and trying to fit into an ultra tight window despite the massive frame of Mark Herzlich blocking the way. It wasn’t an isolated incident, too often his throws were really forced.”

If you need a second opinion, let’s refer to a seperate report from Scouts Inc. I’ve picked out several key notes from the piece:

“Has a lot of room to improve as an overall decision maker. He telegraphs too many throws, especially on vertical routes. Struggles at times when his primary target is covered. He takes too many chances. Needs to learn when to call it quits and play for another down. Tries to force too many throws. Also has lapses in game management. Short accuracy is better than long accuracy. Deep ball will sail on occasion. Touch is only decent. Will miss within the strike zone on occasion and can do a better job of leading his receivers on certain routes near/outside the numbers (quick outs, flare routes, etc).”

I appreciate that Ponder performed well enough at the combine to impress several observers. I understand why an intelligent guy from a good school will get built up above his station. We also see quarterbacks get rated way above their stock – indeed last year was a perfect example. Jimmy Clausen? Top ten pick. Colt McCoy? Late first rounder. Dan LeFevour? Round two or three.

Clausen went in round two, McCoy in round three and LeFevour in round six.

Although McCoy and Ponder are very different prospects, I see some similarities between the two. Both were recovering from an injury that meant they had to leave their teams’ respective bowl games. Both received a certain degree of hype in March. Both suddenly re-appeared in first round mock drafts.

And like McCoy last year, I suspect a few people will be surprised when Christian Ponder is still available in round three and possibly later.

The various pro-days are already underway but the high profile events start tomorrow with prospects from Arkansas, Oklahoma and Auburn working out. Ryan Mallett and Cam Newton will both throw and run through drills, while Mallett is expected to run the forty yard dash – something he chose not to do at the combine.

I’ve listed all of the upcoming pro-days so you can track them below.

March 8th

Arkansas, Alabama and Oklahoma

March 9th

California, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Portland State, Rutgers, Texas A&M and Wisconsin

March 10th

Alabama, Buffalo, Clemson, Fort Valley State, Fresno State, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Miami (FLA), Mississippi State, Nebraska, Oregon, Texas Tech, Washington State and West Texas A&M

March 11th

Idaho, Ohio State, Oregon State, Purdue, Southern Miss, Tennessee and TCU

March 12th

Arizona

March 14th

Central Michigan and LSU

March 15th

Delaware, Florida, Kansas State, Montana State, Pittsburgh and SE Louisiana

March 16th

Florida State, Hampton, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Mount Union, Penn State and Villanova

March 17th

Appalachian State, Lehigh, Marshall, Michigan, Missouri, Slippery Rock, Stanford, Virginia, Virginia Tech and West Virginia

March 18th

Arkansas State, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Richmond and Temple

March 21st

Abilene Christian and Iowa

March 22nd

Georgia, Iowa State, Ole Miss and Nevada

March 23rd

Arizona State, Boston College, Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, North Carolina State, Syracuse and Chattanooga

March 24th

Boise State, San Diego State and South Florida

March 28th

Cincinnati, Citadel, Houston, Rice, Texas and Utah State

March 29th

UCLA and Utah

March 30th

Northern Iowa, South Carolina, USC and Washington

March 31st

Hawaii and North Carolina

April 1st

Eastern Washington

April 4th

SMU

April 7th

Notre Dame

Monday draft links

Michael Lombardi and Steve Wyche look at tomorrow’s pro-days at Auburn and Arkansas.

TFY’s Brent Sebloski has an updated mock draftwith Ryan Mallett going to the Seahawks at #25. Interestingly, he speculates about the possibility of Seattle using the pick as trade bait for Carson Palmer.

Chad Reuter updates his mock for CBS Sportsline with Jake Locker heading to Seattle.

Gil Brandt lists his top-100 prospects for NFL.com and breaks them into tier’s of ten.

Josh Liskiewitz has some less high-profile combine risers and fallers. I agree completely with Liskiewitz’s thoughts on Jabal Sheard and Gabe Carimi.

Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, Dez Bryant, Michael Oher, Jimmy Clausen, Taylor Mays, DeSean Jackson…

Just a selection of high profile prospects that suffered a draft-day fall. There’s varying degree’s of success obviously, but it includes some success stories.

There are different reasons for explaining why a player’s stock has dropped. Quinn and Clausen were simply limited quarterback prospects. Character concerns hampered Oher and Jackson while Rodgers fell largely due to a lack of need. Mays’ had the physical and athletic potential but it wasn’t enough to make up for a lack of pure technique. Bryant sat out nearly an entire season before entering the draft and had a bit of a car-crash off season.

It stands to reason that another player is going to sink this year, we just don’t know who it’s going to be.

Let’s look at five different prospects who may not necessarily last until the #25 pick, but could be around long enough to interest the Seahawks.

Disclaimer: I’m not saying these players will fall, especially not to the #25 pick. I’m simply not ruling it out.

Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)

Big things were expected of Smith after an eleven-sack debut as a red-shirt freshman. A fractured fibula hampered his sophomore campaign and after missing some game time, he never quite got back to full speed in 2010. He was a non-factor in the Insight Bowl defeat to Iowa and probably wouldn’t have rushed back quite as quickly in the NFL. There was no sign of any lingering issues at the combine as he worked out fully – clocking in the mid 4.7’s at the combine. Many project a move to 3-4 OLB at 6-4 and around 260lbs, but for me he’ll always be at his best in a four man front.

There are teams in front of Seattle (Tampa Bay, New Orleans) who should prevent a full blown drop if he makes it out of the teens, but he’s a prospect without a defined stock at the moment. It wouldn’t really be a surprise if he went in the top-10/15 picks, but a fall into the 20’s also wouldn’t be a turn up for the books.

Verdict: Smith has the quickness and size to play the LEO and he’s no slouch against the run. Is he absolutely 100% after the injury? His floor may be Tampa Bay at #20 but he’d warrant serious consideration if he fell any lower.

Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado)

Smith has the perfect combination of height (6-2), size (205lbs) and speed (4.38 forty yard dash) and even benched 225lbs an impressive 23 times (in comparison, Patrick Peterson managed 15 reps). He flew under the radar for most of his career at Colorado and only really drew attention after Scouts Inc pushed him up as high as #10 on their overall rankings. There’s no question in my mind that he’s a top-10 talent on the field and he could be the complete package physically with the technique to have an instant impact in the NFL.

During the combine the media focused largely on off-the-field issues dating back to 2007 when Smith failed a drugs test. Further concerns were raised about his attitude by the Denver Post and a largely harmless remark about having better ball skills than Nnamdi Asomugha was blown out of proportion. It remains to be seen how all of this will impact Smith’s stock, but a drop down the board isn’t out of the question.

Verdict: Smith is too talented to sink in a big way, but it wouldn’t be a total shocker if he lasted until the 19-26 range. He’d fill a need in Seattle and has the size/speed combo the team wants at cornerback.

Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)

Mallett may be the best quarterback in this class. A bad press hasn’t helped his stock much this off season and too many people have side-stepped the fact that this guy can play. Personally I felt the combine did him the world of good – he performed well on the field and reportedly interviewed well with teams. His technique isn’t flawless and certainly he’ll have work to do but he’s the most prepared to start early from this class. Mallett also made huge strides during the 2010 season improving his completion percentage and accuracy, not to mention playing a leading role in getting his team to a first ever BCS Bowl game.

Quarterbacks are scrutinised more than any other position and with just reason. Talk of alleged drug use and other less than glowing reviews of his character are a big concern and it’s something teams will have to judge based on the time they’re able to spend with Mallett. Even so, it’s wrong to automatically assume the worst like many have done.

Verdict: At the moment I can’t see Mallett getting past Jacksonville at #16. A lot of other people have him in round two or even round three. The Seahawks would have to think long and hard about drafting him at #25 if the opportunity presents itself.

Robert Quinn (DE, UNC)

Many expected Quinn to light up the combine, but it didn’t really happen. A time in the early 4.7’s wasn’t bad, but neither was it perhaps as quick as some were expecting. The big problem I have when watching tape is Quinn appears to be a bit of a one-trick pony. He consistently beat college offensive tackles off the edge and he plays with a bite. However, there’s not much of a repertoire and he seems averse to cutting inside. Add in the fact that he missed all of the 2010 season through suspension and a drop seems at least possible. He was diagnosed with a brain tumour in high school that almost ended his football career. It had no impact on his game in college, but you do wonder if teams will show any caution with the benign tumour still in his skull.

Quinn is clearly a talented football player and he’s only 20-years-old so there’s room to grow. There are enough teams to create a logical floor in the 10-20 range, but there are things working against him that could mean a greater slip into the 20’s. It seems unlikely, yet not impossible.

Verdict: I’m not saying he will fall badly but I think too many people assume he’s safe as a top-12 pick. It’d be no gamble at #25 and a possible steal if the Seahawks are looking for a defining pass rusher at the LEO position.

Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)

I’m not suggesting Fairley will drop to #25 but I think there’s every chance he’ll go a bit later than some people think. Rob Rang quotes an interesting source today: “Everyone is coming down hard on the quarterback (Newton), but [Fairley] is the one to worry about.” He was a beast at times in 2010 and I could easily see him going fourth overall to Cincinnati, yet I could just as easily see them draft a different position (Quarterback?). You could say the same for Cleveland and Tennessee – two other teams with a logical need at defensive tackle, but may be focusing their attentions elsewhere. It’s likely someone will pull the trigger eventually but in my last mock that team was St. Louis at #14.

Let’s say a CBA is agreed before the draft and Brandon Mebane is no longer part of the Seahawks roster. Does defensive tackle become a big need if it isn’t already? If Fairley drops into a position where you can trade up and get one of the more talented players in the draft, does that become a serious option? There are several teams running a 3-4 defense in the teens who could entertain switching picks.

Verdict: He could live up to the top five billing but I graded him in the 10-15 range during the season and his stock may rest in that area come April.

Yesterday I had Brooks Reed going 25th overall to the Seahawks in my latest mock. It got mixed reviews, but more and more people are talking about Reed as a first round pick. It was originally reported he ran a 4.68 forty yard dash at the combine with a 1.62 split. Rob Rang at CBS Sportsline quotes a 4.65 time with a 1.54 split, which was faster than Von Miller and AJ Green. Clay Matthews, who went 26th overall in 2009, ran a 1.58 split and a 4.62 forty despite weighing 8-10lbs more.

Rang also passes on information reporting that teams were satisfied with Ryan Mallett’s interviews during the combine.

Tony Pauline at TFY says it was a different story for Cam Newton, stating the Auburn star failed to impress during team interviews.

Gil Alcaraz at Yahoo pens a provocative piece on why he thinks Newton will never be a success in the NFL.

KC Joyner joins in the debate by arguing the case that Newton isn’t worthy of a first round grade.

Michael Lombardi and Steve Wyche make the case for Carolina drafting Blaine Gabbert first overall. It’s a realistic proposition.

Lombardi also has an updated top-ten mock draft.

Mel Kiper wraps up his weekly ESPN online chat. He thinks Ryan Mallett is an option for Seattle, but I’m not convinced he’ll be available at #25.

Todd McShay praises Chattanooga cornerback Buster Skrine for a solid combine work out. Skrine stood out for me, alongside fellow small school prospect Edmund Gates. Chris Carter at Fresno State is also one to watch. I’ll have a bigger look at these guys next week.

McShay and Kiper also offer their weekly draft podcast courtesy of ESPN.

Brandon Adams at 17 Power offers a second opinion on Ryan Mallett and Cam Newton.

I’ve updated the mock draft in reaction to the combine and you can see the latest projection by clicking here.

I’ll stress again that these are not intended to be accurate predictions. My intention is always to look at many possibilities mixed in with some opinions on players and directions I think a team would like to go.

The top-15 continues to be particularly difficult to project with limitless connotations. By this time last year we were pretty certain about the top three picks (Bradford, Suh and McCoy) and many had assumed Washington would draft the top offensive tackle on their board (which they did). When you’re sold on a few picks early on it helps set up a mock draft and we don’t that luxury this year.

For example – this week I really struggled to place Nick Fairley. There were a handful of spots in the top ten where he would be a logical and realistic fit, but then I can also see why those teams would go in a different direction. Putting him at #14 to St. Louis seems unlikely at this stage, yet is it improbable or even impossible? I’m not sure.

There are some things I remain confident about. I still think Mike Shanahan will invest his future in Jake Locker. Wherever Jimmy Smith ends up going, I think he’ll present real value and he could be the cornerback from this class to have the best career. Unlike many others, I actually think Ryan Mallett improved his stock over the weekend enough to secure a first round spot – Jacksonville at #16 seems like a really good fit. I’m also absolutely positive that like Colt McCoy last year, we will not see Christian Ponder going in the first round. They aren’t similar players, but they are going through similar levels of unwarranted hype.

So what about the Seahawks? Regulars will know I like to mix it up for Seattle and go through different possibilities. We’ve just about covered every angle by now (or at least every position) and I don’t want this to become a token gesture ‘let’s see who it is this week’. Part of the problem is we’re still trying to work out the new regime. Tim Ruskell had such a defined draft policy it wasn’t difficult to project outcomes. We’re not at the stage yet with Pete Carroll and John Schneider that we can call someone a ‘Seahawks type pick’.

Will they ever draft a quarterback in round one? Do they value the LEO enough to take the fourth or fifth best pass rusher in this class at #25? Is the interior line considered worthy of that first round investment?

I’ve gone with Brooks Reed this week – a rising defensive end from Arizona who would fit at the LEO. He’s not had an explosive career with the Wildcats (15 sacks in two fulls seasons) and his 2009 season was hampered through injury. He posted impressive numbers at the combine, running a 4.68 forty yard dash with a 1.62 ten yard split. As a comparison, Clay Matthews (drafted 26th overall in 2009) ran a 4.62 forty with a 1.58 split. He’s also about 8-10lbs lighter than Reed and didn’t enter the pro’s with much pass rush production due to his role at USC.

Reed also has Clay Matthews hair, but we’ll not count that as a positive part of the evaluation.

It raises similar questions to last week when I suggested Jabal Sheard could be an option at #25. There will be LEO ‘fits’ later on so do you look to boost the interior defensive line instead? There were options in this mock (Phil Taylor, Muhammed Wilkerson, Corey Liuget etc).

Take a look at the tape below courtesy of the invaluable Aaron Aloysius, have a gaze at the mock and let me know what you think.

Ryan Mallett significantly improved his stock at the combine. What’s wrong with that suggestion? It goes against the media consensus but maybe it’s true?   

Here’s the timeline for Mallett’s media massacre, dating all the way back to last year:   

January 2010– Mallett decides not to declare for 2010 draft andreturns for a second year starting in Bobby Petrino’s offense. High profile pundits criticise his height, touch, accuracy, lack of mobility and ability to win tough games on the road.   

February 2010– Breaks foot during conditioning drills and he’ll be forced to miss all of Spring practise. Critics voice concern about Mallett’s ability to work on his faults.   

September 2010– Mallett, now fully healed, throws for 1698 yards in his first five games (4-1) of the 2010 season – scoring thirteen touchdowns in the process. Arkansas win key games at Georgia and Texas A&M, but defeat to #1 ranked Alabama sticks in the throat when a double interception in the fourth quarter leads to defeat. Critics focus on the key final pick when, under pressure, Mallett is forced to re-adjust his feet and throw off balance – costing Arkansas a chance to win.   

September 2010 – Speculation begins surrounding potential off the field concerns. Wes Bunting from the NFP tweets: “I talked to a scout the other day that said, ‘I got stuff on Mallett that nobody knows about’ there are a lot of concerns on him personally.”   

October-December 2010– Arkansas doesn’t lose another regular season game under Mallett’s leadership. The Hogs only defeat comes against eventual BCS Champions Auburn when Mallett is forced to leave the game early with a concussion. Impressive wins against Mississippi State (A), South Carolina (A) and LSU (H) lead to a first BCS bowl appearance in the team’s history.   

January 2011– Mallett’s Arkansas lose the Sugar Bowl to Ohio State after a second-half comeback falls short. Deja vu strikes as Mallett throws another late interception off balance to kill the game, re-opening wounds from the Alabama defeat earlier that season. Critics continue to focus on the footwork problem despite a 3869 yard season that included 32 passing touchdowns and just 12 interceptions.   

January 2011– By the end of the 2010 season, Mallett made major strides across the board. He improved his completion percentage from 56% in 2009 to 65% in 2010. His accuracy and touch had greatly improved, as did his willingness to check down. He continued to show strongly progressing through reads and didn’t rely as much on his big arm. Mallett controlled the offense and was given responsibility to adjust plays at the line of scrimmage. The other issue – wins on the road – was improved with Arkansas’ only official road defeat coming in the Mallett-less shoot-out against #1 Auburn,   

January 2011 – A website called ‘Draft Monsters’ publishes an article suggesting Mallett has drug abuse problems, citing unnamed sources.   

January 2011– Mallett dramatically and suddenly drops out of Mel Kiper’s top-25 big board, despite being as high as #11 previously. Kiper claims mechanical problems are the issue, but the example he uses (vs Alabama) is a game he previously analysed in detail during the season.   

February 2011 – Negative publicity continues as drug rumors pick up pace. ESPN 101’s Tony Softli regurgitates the speculation. Doug Farrar in his ‘Shutdown 40’ series states: “As much as I don’t enjoy writing profoundly negative scouting reports of draft prospects, Mallett has as many warning flags as any potential first-round quarterback I’ve ever seen.”   

February 2011– Mallett heads to the scouting combine under a blaze of negative publicity. His introductory press conference is dominated by questions relating to speculated drug abuse:   

   

Farrar labels the conference ‘a meltdown’, listed Mallett among his combine ‘losers’ and wrote, “the way he handled his abbreviated press conference didn’t just add to the questions; it also perpetuated the perception of Mallett as a person who is defensive in all the wrong ways.” This was an opinion shared by many. Evan Silva lists Mallett as his #1 combine ‘faller’, using the term ‘train wreck’ and suggesting he could fall into round three. 

Follow the relevant media and you’d be forgiven for thinking Mallett’s last 12-14 months have been an utter train wreck.   

It leads us to today, March 2nd, with the combine in the books. The name Ryan Mallett hasn’t been barely mentioned since he left Indianapolis on a plane having completed quarterback drills at the combine. Attentions turned obviously to the defensive lineman, linebackers and defensive backs – but the Mallett soap opera was still conspicuous by it’s absence after Sunday.   

Am I missing something here? Is somebody sat on an enormous scoop that’s going to destroy the guy’s stock even more? This is a person the media have used as a pawn in their draft coverage – the evil villain so to speak among the Patrick Peterson’s, Von Miller’s and Prince Amukamara’s out there. After all – we need a bad news angle, right?   

So why has the Mallett character assassination (is that too strong? arguably not) ceased to such a grand halt? After his perceived poor public appearance on Saturday, I felt sure we’d hear all about how teams were repulsed by his performance and how it carried on into private team interviews. This was a story that had legs, so why would it stop?   

Len Pasquarelli at CBS Sportsline has a logical reason:   

“Despite a Saturday afternoon media session in which some felt that quarterback Ryan Mallett was caustic and evasive when questioned about the drug allegations surrounding him, most league franchises that subjected the former Arkansas star to a closed door interview came away impressed with him. Three teams that met with Mallett at the combine said they had no problems with his responses to the drug allegations or with his demeanor.”   

Admittedly this is focused on private team meetings and the media has no direct access to the productivity of those. Nobody is leaking that they went badly though and Pasquarelli’s sources suggest he actually performed well.   

My take on the introductory presser was rather than suffer a ‘meltdown’, Mallett almost certainly dealt with it in the best way possible. It was a tough situation and he knew it – what exactly would’ve been a good way of dealing with it? Denying allegations only to be labelled a liar if they prove true? Admitting mistakes and making it a public talking point? Teams don’t want to see him discussing such loaded topics with the press. After five questions on the subject, he politely calls a halt to proceedings and leaves the podium – he hardly storms off the stage as some outlets have suggested.   

Mallett performed well in drills – perhaps better than any other quarterback – and there have been no negative reports from his interviews. The conclusion? He’s poured ice-cold water all over the blazing fire surrounding his draft stock. Teams who may have had concern with his off the field persona might have been impressed with the way he handled himself.   

I’ve always considered Mallett a top-15 talent on the field with doubts off it. I felt the combine would define his stock because if anything was going to come out into the open – it’d be now. That hasn’t happened, no skeletons leaving the closet. We still don’t know if the reported drug abuse is true or to what extent it may be true but nobody has been able to nail down exact details. No journalist or team representative has put credence to the speculation.   

That in itself has to be constituted as a success. The fact he performed well and reportedly interviewed well is another significant bonus.  

It doesn’t mean I think he’ll be a top ten pick all of a sudden – he may easily drop into round two as I’ve projected for some time. Perspective is vital though and I don’t see many others willing to consider the possibility that actually – Mallett had a pretty good weekend.   

This tweet courtesy of ‘Sports by Brooks’ is interesting if unsubstantiated and lacking detail. Potential sabotage adds a nice twist to the tale, but it’s as ambitious at this point as those trying to claim Mallett suffered a meltdown during his presser.   

What I want to convey and will represent in my next mock (published later today, so stay tuned) is the argument that Mallett did have a more positive experience at the combine than some believe. I’m not saying a fall isn’t still possible, but let’s not rule out someone acknowledging his on-field talents and being satisfied enough with his off-field personality to roll the dice on a player with big-time potential.

                 

The defensive backs complete the combine work outs this week. I’ll be blogging live throughout with the numbers, some thoughts and linked analysis.           

Regular visitors to the blog will know how highly I rate Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith. I’m looking forward to seeing how he checks out after an ‘eventful’ last couple of days to say the least.                 

Firstly, a lot of negative publicity was created by his introductory press conference:                 

                 

The comment that he has ‘better ball skills’ than all-pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha caused a stir and maybe a few over reactions. I don’t mind stuff like that. It’s cocky, but ultimately harmless. It’s not like the top players don’t spend a lot of time calling each other out (see: Jets vs Patriots in the playoffs).                 

If the arrogance translates to a bad attitude or poor work ethic, then it becomes a concern. I didn’t see any evidence of that when scouting Smith in 2010.                 

A bit more digging brought up some other potential red flags – Smith had a positive drugs test in 2007 and some other issues several years ago. It led to articles like this by Tom Kowalski at Mlive.com who has now decided corner-desperate Detroit won’t consider drafting Smith. Generally I enjoy Kowalski’s work covering the Lions, but he’s also the reporter who persistently argued the team wouldn’t draft Matt Stafford in 2009. While he may have a valid point regarding Detroit’s draft policy, we also need to remember these incidents happened four years ago.                 

It is possible for a person to mature. As with several other highly talented prospects, teams will have to do their homework. Smith had 28 team interviews before today’s work out and he’ll have to answer some difficult questions. Even so, he’s without doubt one of the players with elite potential in this draft class. Running a time in the 4.3’s will help his stock just as much as an impressive set of interviews.                 

Smith benched 225lbs a credible 23 times. Patrick Peterson managed 15 reps and Ras-I Dowling had 19.                 

Cornerback (Group 1) forty yard dash times                  

Cortez Allen (Citadel): 4.45 & 4.47                 

Prince Amukamara (Nebraska): 4.37 & 4.44                 

Ahmad Black (Florida): 4.78 & 4.74                 

Curtis Brown (Texas): 4.51 & 4.57                 

Jalil Brown (Colorado): 4.55 & 4.56                 

Kedrick Burney (UNC): 4.75 & 4.72                 

Brandon Burton (Utah): 4.50 & 4.51                 

Rashad Carmichael (Virginia Tech): 4.49 & 4.53                 

Quinton Carter (Oklahoma): 4.62 & 4.63                 

Chimdi Chekwa (Ohio State): 4.33 & 4.37                 

Chris Culliver (South Carolina): 4.36 & 4.38                 

Ras-I Dowling (Virginia): 4.40 & DNP                 

Marcus Gilchrist (Clemson): 4.49 & 4.46                 

Eric Hagg (Nebraska): 4.68 & 4.64                 

Brandon Harris (Miami): 4.43 & 4.44                 

Will Hill (Florida): 4.64 & 4.63                 

Davon House (New Mexico State): 4.46 & 4.43                 

**NOTES**                 

Amukamara ran a 4.37 and a 4.44. Straight line speed was never an issue for him, this really just confirms the evidence on tape. The difference between Joe Haden (who ran in the 4.7’s) and Amukamara is recovery reactions and ball skills. I suspect despite the difference in forty times, Amukamara will be drafted lower than Haden.                 

Ras-I Dowling is a favorite on this blog as a potential sleeper who could slip due to injuries. He helped himself by running a 4.40 – then hurt himself by pulling a hamstring. A talented player, but his stock is all over the place because he can’t stay healthy.                 

Brandon Harris’ time was fine at 4.43 but he seems an unlikely option for Seattle after measuring 5-9 rather than his listed height of 5-11 at Miami. “He’s fairing the best from all of these drills” – Deion Sanders’ review of Harris working out.                 

Chimdi Chekwa ran two blazing 4.3’s but didn’t impress in drills. Deion Sanders and Mike Mayock were critical of Prince Amukamara back pedal – he stayed high and didn’t look fluid. “How tight are you in the hips? You can’t fix that.” – Mayock.                 

Curtis Brown flashed some nice hips and ball skills – he projects as a late second/early third round cornerback. Chris Culliver also looked good to back up a couple of nice times in the forty.                 

Cornerback (Group 2) forty times                 

DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson): 4.64 & 4.68                 

Rahim Moore (UCLA): 4.53 & 4.61                 

Johnny Patrick (Louisville): 4.53 & 4.57                 

Patrick Peterson (LSU): 4.32 & 4.37                 

Robert Sands (West Virginia): 4.56 & 4.53               

Buster Skrine (Chattanooga): 4.29 & 4.36                 

Jimmy Smith (Colorado): 4.38 & 4.44                  

Demarcus Van Dyke (Miami): 4.33 & 4.33           

Aaron Williams (Texas): 4.53 & 4.52                

Deunta Williams (UNC): DNP                 

Shareece Wright (USC): 4.47 & 4.46                 

**NOTES**                 

Patrick Peterson ran an outstanding forty yard dash which should ensure he’ll be the first cornerback off the board. Of course my main focus of attention was on Jimmy Smith and he too ran quickly. Both players have the perfect blend of size/speed and fluidity.                 

I still maintain that there’s little between the two players and both are top-10 talents. As I mentioned at the start of today, there’s a lot of character talk out there with Smith. The Denver Post today published a piece stating he’s more interested in becoming a celebrity than a football player.                 

Mike Mayock also mentioned on the NFL Network that he’s seen tape where Smith shows less than 100% effort – something I can’t say I’ve witnessed in the handful of Colorado games I have watched, but I haven’t seen every game tape.                 

Unless teams have serious and legitimate concerns on Smith, it’s hard to envisage too much of a drop – especially not to the #25 overall pick. As far as I’m concerned he’s the complete package at corner with limitless potential.                 

Aaron Williams ran in the 4.5’s – a time which led Mayock to project a move to free safety. He didn’t perform well in positional drills either. Shareece Wright helped himself by running a 4.4.        

Robert Sands looked tight in drills and struggled a little bit. It’s not a good safety class overall. Rahim Moore is clearly the best of the bunch and it showed in work outs. Buster Skrine showed nice quick feet and will find a team who likes him, but Jimmy Smith was quite tight in the hips.    

Elsewhere…         

Greg McElroy has been talking himself up on the Dan Patrick show. “I think I will get drafted higher than a lot of people suggest.” For the record, I think McElroy will be an undrafted free agent.         

Brandon Harris spoke to the NFL Network after his work out today.        

Closing thoughts – what I think we learned from the combine        

– Brandon Harris seems unlikely for Seattle after measuring at 5-9 instead of the 5-11 he was listed at Miami. Seattle wants size at cornerback.        

– We know the Seahawks were among the teams that interviewed Cam Newton. It was reported that Tom Cable spoke to Mike Pouncey and the team also met with Clemson defensive tackle Jarvis Jenkins and Lehigh offensive tackle Will Rackley. 

– The Seahawks are covering their small school prospects. They were the only team to have a formal meeting with Mark LeGree (CB, Appalachian State) and also met with Abilene Christian wide receiver Edmund Gates. 

– Ryan Mallett may have impressed teams more than people think. It goes against popular opinion, but I think he solidified a first round grade in Indianapolis.        

– DeMarco Murray ran well and could’ve boosted his stock quite a lot with a 4.3. He needs to run harder, but he catches passes and will have a role at the next level.        

– Offensive tackle is such a premium position that it’s hard to see Tyron Smith not going in the top ten.        

– Chris Carter from Fresno State is a sleeper pick to keep an eye on.   

– Buster Skrine impressed more than possibly any other defensive back, running in the late 4.2’s and competing well in the drills.        

– The first round is going to be dominated by defensive lineman. The most surprising thing is how well they all ran the forty yard dash.        

– If you want to make a few headlines, post a ridiculous tweet listing the quarterbacks in a funky order. There’s no way Mallett should be down the order like that.        

– I ran through a mock draft I intend to publish tomorrow post-combine. The top-15 picks are still wide open and completely unpredictable. This is certainly the hardest class to project that I’ve ever covered. There are still so many different possibilities.