Andy Dalton a first round pick? Not for me.
Twelve months ago, Colt McCoy was a late first round pick. He was a winner in college, setting records galore for Texas. Forget the faults because this guy could win.
I was never a fan and thought he deserved a late round grade, but would probably settle in the fourth round due to the reputation and ability to ‘win’. During the season only Mel Kiper stuck by a high grade, consistently keeping him at #25 on his big board despite a largely negative view every else. He wasn’t really on the radar as a high draft pick because the flaws were pretty obvious.
He had a slow start to the off season having spent a large portion of it recovering from an injury picked up in the BCS Championship defeat to Alabama. Yet once McCoy recovered and participated in his pro-day, the hype machine kicked into gear. Suddenly he was being talked about as a late first round pick. Really? What about the tape? We’d all seen it and nobody really considered McCoy a first round talent previously. Physically not great, not accurate enough to compensate, too many mistakes. What gives?
Peter King was one of McCoy’s fans, touting him as a late first rounder. When asked in his MMQB article one week about the possibility of Tim Tebow going in the first round, King replied:
“I probably would pick McCoy if I had the choice. I think he’s getting vastly underrated entering the last round of evaluations of the quarterbacks.”
Todd McShay was at McCoy’s pro-day and filed this report for ESPN (see video below). Notice the term ‘West Coast Offense’.
Mary Kay-Cabot from the Cleveland Plain Dealer had this piece on McCoy before the draft:
“Most experts have McCoy ranked behind Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford and Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen, and projected to go in the second round. But if the Browns hope to land him — and there are strong indications they’d like to — they might have to either trade back from No. 7 or up from No. 38 to secure him late in the first round.”
22% of fans voting in this Minnesota Vikings poll wanted the team to draft McCoy at #30 overall, second only to Devin McCourty (29%) (well, they actually call him Derrick – I’m not sure how good Derrick McCourty is).
Draft Nasty mocked McCoy to #30 as well, stating:
“With the uncertain future of current quarterback Brett Favre, the Vikings may look to take the most accurate quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft class.”
Draft day arrived and by that point more and more people were projecting McCoy as a possible first round pick or at worst, an early second rounder. Mike Mayock from the NFL Network believed he would be an early second round pick. For two rounds McCoy waited. He saw Sam Bradford go first overall, but as this video shows– the patience was perhaps starting to thin out when Tim Tebow was the second quarterback off the board. The words used when Jimmy Clausen was the first quarterback taken on day two? “It’s crazy… nothing’s ever been easy.”
He lasted until the end of round three and was taken by the Cleveland Browns. Remember them? One of the teams supposedly who might be trading up into the bottom of round one.
When all was said and done McCoy went in the range the initial evaluations suggested – right in the middle of draft, perhaps a couple of rounds earlier than he probably should’ve done. He was a project without the great physical talent. Cleveland were starting a new era with a west coast offense, managed by Mike Holmgren as team president.
Fast forward a year and tell me the difference between the McCoy hype and all this ‘Andy Dalton in round one’ talk?
It started when John Clayton touted the possibility of Seattle taking one of the second tier quarterbacks in round one, including Dalton. It was a surprise but not so much in the context Clayton was debating. His view was that a reach may be necessary to fill the most important position and clearly taking Dalton there was a reach. My surprise was based around the thought that Dalton wouldn’t be there at #57. After all, this was a guy generously being talked about as a possible third or fourth round pick – perhaps later still.
Then came Trent Dilfer’s contribution.
“One of the reasons why he hasn’t generated as much momentum and hype is because what personnel and coaches do at this time of the year when they’ve kind of settle on who they want, they’re going to shut up about that guy. You’ll hear a lot of good stuff about (Arkansas’ Ryan) Mallett in the next couple weeks because they want to use him as a smoke screen. You’re going to hear a lot of good stuff about (Florida State’s Christian) Ponder because they want to use him as a smoke screen.
“At the end of the day, the good quarterback people in this league — I will not be wrong here — are going to be wanting Andy Dalton late in the first round or early second round if he happens to fall that far. I’ll be shocked if I’m wrong here. Andy Dalton will be taken in the first round.”
The hype season was upon us. It’s probably worth adding that Dilfer has back tracked on those comments just today, suggesting now that Dalton will probably go in round two.
Nevertheless, other people have projected Dalton to Seattle at #25. Don Banks in his last two mock drafts has gone in that direction.
We’re starting to hear the same things said about Dalton that we heard about McCoy. He’s a west coast guy, he’s a winner, he’s got ‘moxy’, the stats are good. Etc etc.
History is repeating itself.
For whatever reason, we get to this time of year and quarterbacks like Dalton get a sensational press. They’re considered the safe alternative to the big name quarterback – yet how many of these guys ever go on to be full time starters? It’s not impossible, but it’s very difficult. You can have all the wins in college, nice stats coming out of a spread offense and you can be a great guy. When all is said and done, you need physical talent and you need to be accurate.
Let’s hit the tape, courtesy as always of the impeccable Aaron Alosysius:
The tape shows every snap involving Dalton in a blow out win over San Diego State. The third and fourth passes in the video against are Christian Ponder-esque and will lead to picks at the next level. There are a lot of similar play calls, option to the running back and a short screen or slant to the left designed for yards after the catch.
What Dalton does well, as emphasised here, is a strike to the outside on a medium level route. He does generate some velocity on those passes and is generally accurate. The first two touchdown passes are well executed, a fade in single coverage and a quick throw to the right which the receiver takes advantage of. At the same time, neither is a particularly difficult pass to make. I actually prefer the third and fourth touchdown passes, when he zips a slant to the outside in tight coverage perfectly and completes a tougher fade to the outside.
However, there are a lot of throws that seem to miss high or wide that aren’t that difficult. On one play he throws about 10-yards out of the end zone on a roll out. The guy isn’t a lost cause by any means in terms of accuracy, but it’s not consistent enough. Let’s also remember the level of competition he’s facing.
One thing that’s not evidenced here and is something I’ve picked up on watching several other TCU games in 2009 and 2010 is Dalton’s inability to remain focused after an error. There have been times when he’s made a poor decision or turned the ball over and let it get to him. This was a bigger issue in 2009 and it hit his confidence during a game. He improved the following year, but it’s something I’d feel I had to monitor at the next level because he can be fragile at times.
So here’s how I judge Andy Dalton – he needs to try and become Matt Hasselbeck. That is the peak for him. Get into a strict and defined offense that is based on timing and short/intermediate routes. Master the offense over 2-3 years on the sidelines and hope for time and patience as a starter when you finally get that shot. Then you have to execute.
Hasselbeck was fortunate enough to spend all of his early career with the same coach and the same system and he had that drive and determination to master the scheme. It’s maybe one of Hasselbeck’s most under rated qualities that he’s a pure football guy with a very good grasp of the game. He worked hard to become a NFL starter as a 6th round pick, but he also understood and followed the information well enough to go with the ideal coaching.
When his career didn’t start brilliantly in Seattle, he had further opportunities. When the Holmgren offense was at it’s best in Seattle, Hasselbeck was at his best too. It was only a short window, but for a period he was among the top QB’s in the league.
Dalton needs all of the same fight, all of the same consistency in coaching and the time. Even then he’s going to struggle like crazy, because there aren’t many Matt Hasselbeck’s who make it in the league. So are you taking this guy in round one? Of course not. He’s not a physically gifted athlete with mind blowing potential. He’ll need an abundance of time and coaching. He’s not a faultless decision maker with great accuracy to make up for the lack of pure physical talent.
He’s the very definition of a mid/late round flier. Round one? Not for me.
The Seahawks are not going to invest their future in a guy like Dalton in round one. Could they see him as an option after that? Perhaps, but I suspect they want someone who can be a much greater x-factor presence on a much quicker time frame. Whatever your views on Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker, they are light years ahead of Dalton in terms of physical ability and having seen all three on the board, I believe they are also above Dalton in terms of understanding a pro-system.
I don’t want to labor this point too much, but look at Dalton in his discussion with John Gruden (see video below). He gives his favorite play as a basic ‘all-go’ route with essentially a deep read and a checkdown. It is such a simple play. As Gruden points out when the roll the tape, he doesn’t notice the easy checkdown that would’ve provided a solid 25-35 yards. Instead he forces a throw deep and should be intercepted. To quote Gruden, “Ed Reed is dunking that ball over the goal post.”
Ryan Mallett makes that check down. I’d urge people to watch his piece with Gruden and compare the white board breakdown to grasp the differences between the two in terms of that pro-understanding. Gruden hates rookie quarterbacks – it aided his departure from Tampa Bay – but look at his face light up when Mallett runs through a play and practises a hard count.
There’s the difference between what you would tentatively call a pro-ready quarterback and a guy who needs to spend a lot of time with a quarterbacks coach. A first round quarterback needs to be ready to start these days. If they aren’t, then they at least need to have a high ceiling with limitless potential. Dalton is neither.
Essentially I think he’ll end up in that round 3/4 range, as did McCoy. Maybe the lack of free agency does tempt a team to take him in round two? I just think if there is going to be a quarterback reach from the second tier, it’ll be on a guy like Colin Kaepernick who at least has the physical tools to match the production and ‘winning‘. If I’m wrong and Dalton does find a home in the late first round or the early second, I’ll have no issues coming onto the blog and admitting I was flat out wrong. We’ll find out in a couple of weeks when the 2011 draft kicks off. Until then I’m standing by the stance I’ve always had – Dalton at #25 is not going to happen.
